Speaker 1: Check it out man super Bowl fifty nine megapod that
Speaker 1: was called the Super Bowl Licks. Hail Alexander, thank you
Speaker 1: for tuning in on Twitter Live. Everybody on the retweet
Speaker 1: let's see you do. Let people know we're on Otherwise
Speaker 1: following Vson, they won't know what a Vson account there
Speaker 1: it is, and retweet that bad boy. All right, We're
Speaker 1: good to go. As always guests of the show, for
Speaker 1: our final podcast of the h of the football season.
Speaker 1: It's always a little sad, always a little melanchol. From
Speaker 1: his mom's cork attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The star of
Speaker 1: Showtimes docuseries Action Odd wish nev what's happening?
Speaker 2: Hey? How are you?
Speaker 1: Will hill at not the Will hill the so the
Speaker 1: should have been more podcasts and of course uh also
Speaker 1: a part of a bear bets. Chris Belicas Fox podcast
Speaker 1: Empire was adding Will good, Hi.
Speaker 3: How are you are we all? Are we all doing
Speaker 3: the melancholy thing? Are we all gonna?
Speaker 1: Todd wisham he uh? And our guest who has been
Speaker 1: our guest. I actually have megapod historical stats, but he is.
Speaker 1: This is kind of his week because he made his Hey,
Speaker 1: he made his fame, he rose to prominence, he became
Speaker 1: the man that he became because of the Super Super
Speaker 1: Bowl prop betting. Rufus Peabody half of the Massive Peabody
Speaker 1: Analytics team.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 1: He's also half of the Bet the Process podcasts he
Speaker 1: does with Jeff ma uh. And he's also co founder
Speaker 1: of Unabated along with Captain Jack and others. And Rufus
Speaker 1: at some point in this podcast, maybe like five ten
Speaker 1: minutes from now, is gonna have to duck out because
Speaker 1: he's gonna have to go to the bath So just
Speaker 1: let you know.
Speaker 2: He's also he's also on the Michael Lewis.
Speaker 1: Right now, hold on, Oh, he might have to go
Speaker 1: to the bathroom. Right, he might have to go to
Speaker 1: the bathroom. Right now. It's a good way to start
Speaker 1: this one. Yes, let's Rufus goes to the bathroom. We'll
Speaker 1: talk about this for a second. So Michael Lewis, the
Speaker 1: author of You Got to Run.
Speaker 4: I'll be back in five minutes.
Speaker 1: Do it. We'll talk about you while you're going. Ruf
Speaker 1: has got to go.
Speaker 2: The bath I want to why don't wait, Why don't
Speaker 2: we wait until he comes back? Because I want to
Speaker 2: hear what he has to say about this.
Speaker 1: Oh, no, we will, we will schedule he he schedules
Speaker 1: his bathroom breaks. That's how I knew he had to
Speaker 1: go to the bathroom. Uh, no, we can talk about
Speaker 1: it before because no, I am kidding, Yes, I am kidding.
Speaker 1: A live shot of Rufus trying to figure out how
Speaker 1: to get to the bathroom. So here's the deal. So
Speaker 1: rufe is an addition to what I just talked about. Yes,
Speaker 1: he is pretty much the focal point of Michael Lewis's
Speaker 1: podcast series, season five of Against the Rules, which is
Speaker 1: about sports betting. Michael Lewis the author of Money All, famously,
Speaker 1: The blind Side, The Big Short, other Wall Street related books.
Speaker 1: Probably my favorite author. I'm guessing your favorite author too, Todd,
Speaker 1: so many people's favorite. But rufus Is is fantastic in this,
Speaker 1: his role in this, and Michael Lewis does a great
Speaker 1: job of sort of couching Rufus's place in the in
Speaker 1: the betting ecosystem. And I'll say this without Rufus here
Speaker 1: because and Rufus doesn't need to hear it again because
Speaker 1: he was just on a numbers game on the radio
Speaker 1: side yesterday and we went through this. But essentially For
Speaker 1: those who are unfamiliar with Rufus, Rufus was a He
Speaker 1: grew up in the DC area like I did. He
Speaker 1: grew up in northern Virginia, went to T. C. Williams
Speaker 1: High School. Remember the Titans, you remember from that movie.
Speaker 1: That's the high school. He then went to Yale as
Speaker 1: part as part of his thesis.
Speaker 3: He did.
Speaker 1: The Inefficiencies in the Baseball Betting market was his thesis
Speaker 1: at Yale. He read an article in I want to
Speaker 1: say it was in Sports Illustrated gen World Houski about
Speaker 1: Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which Roxy Roxboro founded and was
Speaker 1: about to sell, and he started, you know, he learned
Speaker 1: of this place for the first time in his life.
Speaker 1: Las Vegas Sports Consultants, by this time were responsible for
Speaker 1: all the lines that were generated in Vegas. Rufus was
Speaker 1: fascinated by it. He tried to get an internship there.
Speaker 1: At first it didn't work. Then he pestered them and
Speaker 1: he got one and he started. You know, he spent
Speaker 1: the summer working there and learning that side of the business.
Speaker 1: And he was exposed to all this new stuff. I mean,
Speaker 1: imagine a Yale guy doing this, right, Choosing to spend
Speaker 1: his summer in the in the heat of Las Vegas,
Speaker 1: because he was so fascinated by betting markets and the
Speaker 1: Super Bowl where the Cardinals played the Steelers. And by
Speaker 1: the way, part of this is recounted in the Michael
Speaker 1: Lewis podcast. But that Super Bowl, the famous one more
Speaker 1: Santonio Holmes did the toe tap and the Steelers won.
Speaker 1: He he was really over leveraged. He borrowed money, he
Speaker 1: was getting free rolled by others. But he he basically
Speaker 1: used his models while working at Las Vegas Sports Intelton's.
Speaker 1: He basically used his models to try to bet that
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, and pretty much it was the props. And
Speaker 1: one of the things was Gary russell first touchdown score
Speaker 1: and his number said that it was a far more
Speaker 1: likely outcome than what the betting odds suggested. So that
Speaker 1: triggered a bet, and there was any number of them,
Speaker 1: and I don't know if that he missed a bet
Speaker 1: in that particular Super Bowl. And so he ended up
Speaker 1: from an ROI perspective to this day, from an ROI perspective,
Speaker 1: probably having his most profitable super Bowl of all time.
Speaker 1: It's not the most money he's made, but from an
Speaker 1: ROI perspective, it was the greatest ever. But essentially that's
Speaker 1: where this journey for him first started. He ended up
Speaker 1: being a subject of a Washington Post article about him
Speaker 1: killing Super Bowl props, and for years and years and years,
Speaker 1: the history of Super Bowl props was the Westgate was
Speaker 1: the first one to open. It was a Tuesday night.
Speaker 1: Everybody would line up. You could make three bets a
Speaker 1: max amount of money, and then you had to go
Speaker 1: to the back of the line and make bets again.
Speaker 1: And the way this has evolved super Bowl props, by
Speaker 1: the way, which began historically during Super Bowl twenty the
Speaker 1: run up to Super Bowl twenty, when art man Terras
Speaker 1: at Caesar's put up a prop on William the Refrigerator
Speaker 1: Perry to score a touchdown in Super Bowl twenty. It
Speaker 1: started out at forty to one. He couldn't get much
Speaker 1: action because the Bears were big favorites against the Patriots,
Speaker 1: so he came up with this prop idea. Betters betted
Speaker 1: down from forty to one down a five to one,
Speaker 1: and famously, William the Refrigerator Perry scored a touchdown. He
Speaker 1: had been inserted in the backfield for the Bears often
Speaker 1: that year in the Bear's Magical run to the Super
Speaker 1: Bowl title, and in fact, William Refrigerator Perry scored in
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Mike Ditka later said it was one
Speaker 1: of the big regrets of his career because he wished
Speaker 1: in retrospect that Walter Payton had scored a touchdown. Walter
Speaker 1: Payton was sort of in the twilight of this long career,
Speaker 1: finally got to a super Bowl and didn't get in
Speaker 1: the end zone, but the Fridge did. So That's how
Speaker 1: super Bowl prop started. I told Rufus, I just told
Speaker 1: the story again about the Super Bowl between the Steelers
Speaker 1: and the Cardinals, how it started for you, the Washington
Speaker 1: Post article, and sort of the rest is history, where
Speaker 1: now we have instead of that night at the West Gate.
Speaker 1: By the time the NFC a AFC Championship games are
Speaker 1: these books like DraftKings and Bandal have all these props
Speaker 1: just ready to go, at least the formulae. The Rufous
Speaker 1: end player rufles have the bathroom break out but is successful.
Speaker 4: Successful, very good, I hear it.
Speaker 1: Let me just before we get to Rufus's take on
Speaker 1: the because I know Tod wants to ask about Michael
Speaker 1: Lewis thing. Just a few Megapod historical stats. Since this
Speaker 1: is our last football Megapod of the year, from Megapod
Speaker 1: historian Tim Lawton, the host of the Better Life podcast,
Speaker 1: Tim Lawson with some historical Megapod stats and Todd I
Speaker 1: was shocked by some of this that related to you.
Speaker 1: The NFL Megapod officially began this podcast This Megapod or
Speaker 1: a full season on the Betting Dork Feed in twenty eleven. However,
Speaker 1: there were a handful of episodes produced before that twenty
Speaker 1: eleven season, featuring guests like Las Vegas, Chris ed Fang,
Speaker 1: and Joe Fortenbaugh. Megapod did not have a Thanksgiving week
Speaker 1: episode until twenty nineteen, which was also the first year
Speaker 1: that Marco and VR did not co host. Palm and
Speaker 1: Parlay co hosted. In twenty nineteen, the first five seasons
Speaker 1: did not have an episode for the final week of
Speaker 1: the regular season. This is Rufus's today fifteenth appearance on
Speaker 1: the Edit on Megapod. Fifteenth is sixth in the postseason.
Speaker 1: Rufus has the third most appearances for megapod preview shows
Speaker 1: preview shows. He's only behind Fortinbaugh with nineteen and Brady
Speaker 1: Cannon with seventeen. I'm coming for in Vo, You're coming
Speaker 1: for it. Marco and VR co hosted one hundred and
Speaker 1: forty two episodes. Todd has now co hosted Are You
Speaker 1: Ready for This? One hundred and thirty? He's only twelve
Speaker 1: behind Wow. Seven years from Marko and VR. Six with you, Todd?
Speaker 1: You did sixty six with Palm, twenty two with Arla,
Speaker 1: forty four with Will Hill.
Speaker 4: But how do you feel about being in the close
Speaker 4: to the company of luminaries like Vegas, Runner and Marco D'Angelo.
Speaker 2: Well, you know, when you get to be in such
Speaker 2: incredible company, it's you know, it's really it's like when
Speaker 2: you get a statue out in front of my mom's
Speaker 2: cork attic. It's a big deal.
Speaker 3: What were you saying? Rufus went out for a minute.
Speaker 3: You were saying, you were talking some shit about the oils.
Speaker 3: You want to say that to his face, please?
Speaker 1: I won't.
Speaker 3: When a playoff series got swept last year, got swept
Speaker 3: this year, why don't you Why don't you continue what
Speaker 3: you were saying?
Speaker 2: Todd?
Speaker 1: Wait last thing, Let me let me finish my bid here,
Speaker 1: Doctor Bob longest active streak, longest active streak, Regular season Pods,
Speaker 1: Doctor Bob eight, Drew Dinsik longest active streak post season
Speaker 1: with five Meltzer longest active overall streak with fourteen lifestyle appearances,
Speaker 1: and uh, that's it. There you go, Todd's small gap
Speaker 1: with Marko and vrs P because of the shorter seasons
Speaker 1: they had and the lack of Thanksgiving episode. There you go,
Speaker 1: all right, rufus, Uh Todd, you want to ask about
Speaker 1: Michael stopped hitting?
Speaker 2: And then if we're going to talk about the Baltimore ourial,
Speaker 2: I don't know how they stopped hitting. Those guys were
Speaker 2: crushing the ball every single day and then all of
Speaker 2: a sudden, they just stopped hitting. It was so sad
Speaker 2: because I was so hyped for that team except for
Speaker 2: that left field. I don't like that left field deal.
Speaker 2: You crushed the ball?
Speaker 4: Are they're they're kind of doing a happy medium?
Speaker 1: Oh okay, they realized.
Speaker 4: It turns out they realized that maybe it wasn't actually
Speaker 4: that good for their hitters. And yeah, I think the
Speaker 4: whole point was they were going to build a team
Speaker 4: and around having like better outfield defense, and and it
Speaker 4: turns out like guys like Brian Mountcastle kind of needed
Speaker 4: like got cost a bunch of homers right right, and
Speaker 4: then and then it got in their heads and then
Speaker 4: they started like stopped hitting, like stop being able to hit,
Speaker 4: even on the road.
Speaker 2: It's just aggravating watching the game and watching a guy
Speaker 2: blast the ball like the deep left and then this
Speaker 2: guy just comes over and camps under it at the
Speaker 2: three eighty six mark. You know, it's like, come on,
Speaker 2: that was a home run. You know, I didn't like
Speaker 2: when they moved.
Speaker 1: That back, Todd, what did you want to ask Rufus
Speaker 1: about the Michael Lewis pott.
Speaker 2: I listened to some of the Michael Lewis stuff, and
Speaker 2: Michael Lewis is my favorite author. I just was wondering,
Speaker 2: what was, what's what's he like in real life? And
Speaker 2: you know what was the experience it does? Is he
Speaker 2: pretty much how he comes across in like podcast things
Speaker 2: and stuff, like he seems a nice guy.
Speaker 4: He's a really nice guy, and you can kind of
Speaker 4: see like I had I've had the privilege of having
Speaker 4: like dinner a few times with him this year and
Speaker 4: like getting to talk with him quite a lot and
Speaker 4: kind of about the industry and just about life, and
Speaker 4: he's you can just see how his brain works. He's
Speaker 4: such a curious person and he just kind of dives in.
Speaker 4: He he wants to like understand someone and make what
Speaker 4: makes them tick and just what makes them sort of unique.
Speaker 4: And you can kind of see him thinking about a
Speaker 4: little story in his head and he just kind of
Speaker 4: I don't know, it's it's it's so cool.
Speaker 2: I really can't think of any people that I want
Speaker 2: to meet except Michael Lewis. I think there's like no
Speaker 2: people if you said to me, who would you want
Speaker 2: to meet and have dinner with? You know, I can't
Speaker 2: think of anyone I would want to except for Michael
Speaker 2: Lewis because I've never.
Speaker 3: Met you in real life. That not even Will Hill.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, well Will. I have problems with him just
Speaker 2: from a you know, you want.
Speaker 1: To you want to you want to meet Michael Lewis
Speaker 1: more than you want to meet John frenchie Fuqua. Are
Speaker 1: you sure about that? Really?
Speaker 2: I don't really care to meet John frenchie Fuqua or
Speaker 2: you know.
Speaker 3: What about Lane? What about Lane?
Speaker 1: What about Lane?
Speaker 2: N I would know I met you before I met
Speaker 2: I met meeting Lane Kiff, and I would like to
Speaker 2: meet just to tell him that when it's seventy eight
Speaker 2: to nothing against Furman. You don't have to throw the
Speaker 2: ball on third and seven. It's called being obnoxious. There's
Speaker 2: some kind of but I don't really need to tell
Speaker 2: him that. But they'll never get it anyways, because if
Speaker 2: you're that much of a you're never going to understand
Speaker 2: what I'm saying.
Speaker 1: And jeff Mine Rufus on Bet the Process had Michael
Speaker 1: Lewis on on their last episode. So that's maybe a
Speaker 1: podcast episode you're listen.
Speaker 2: I have that book mark to go listen to that one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and uh, I believe Michael Lewis said that rufus
Speaker 1: would make a good teacher, was the was one of
Speaker 1: the big.
Speaker 4: He thinks I'd be a better teacher than better.
Speaker 1: To say that what you're talking about.
Speaker 4: We were talking about like maybe what's you know, finding
Speaker 4: meaning in one's life and that kind of thing.
Speaker 1: You know, I think you are. You'd be a great one.
Speaker 2: He did great teaching people. People who tell me that
Speaker 2: all the time because I can't explain topics rather thoroughly.
Speaker 1: I feel like many of us would be good teachers.
Speaker 1: But if it but it had to pay more, right,
Speaker 1: that's why you're never interested in doing it.
Speaker 2: Is that.
Speaker 1: Is that as simple as that.
Speaker 3: What are you eating?
Speaker 1: Gilly?
Speaker 4: Probably, i'd say, But also, I mean, being a teacher,
Speaker 4: there isn't like the same sort of I don't know,
Speaker 4: I'm a competitive person, and there isn't the same sort
Speaker 4: of scoreboard there. But also I found it all surprising.
Speaker 4: I think Jeff found it surprising because Jeff, like Jeff
Speaker 4: knows I'm not the best explaining things in a sort
Speaker 4: of concise manner.
Speaker 1: Well, when I ask you to pitch unabated, I always
Speaker 1: famously tell you you're the worst at this, right, Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: you're bad at this. Anyway, I just want to say
Speaker 1: about because if you know, Rufus is a one of
Speaker 1: the things that Michael Lewis says on the podcast Against
Speaker 1: the Rules is that he believes and I've never heard
Speaker 1: it couch this way, but it like made me super
Speaker 1: proud of rufe Is. Not that I have any business
Speaker 1: about being proud of ruf Is, like, but it did
Speaker 1: because I've known Rufus for a long time. And one
Speaker 1: of the things Michael Lewis said was, you know that
Speaker 1: Roxy was sort of the first known person to really
Speaker 1: use analytics to approach sports betting at least famously, and
Speaker 1: that Rufus might be the bridge, you know, to that,
Speaker 1: at least the way that his narrative went, because Michael
Speaker 1: Lewis is a great sort of weaver of words, that
Speaker 1: Rufus was the bridge to this next generation of gamblers
Speaker 1: who used analytics. And I thought that was a you know,
Speaker 1: I don't know, Rufe's kind of objected to it, but
Speaker 1: I thought that was a really good way of couching it.
Speaker 1: So anyway, just well, I.
Speaker 4: Think someone liked me, right, someone in my generation doing
Speaker 4: this type of thing. I'm clearly not the only one.
Speaker 1: You're clearly not the only one. But you know, buck Off,
Speaker 1: you were one of the first.
Speaker 4: How about that I'm one of the ones that is
Speaker 4: more public facing?
Speaker 1: There you Okay, Rufus is very modern. Anyway, it was.
Speaker 1: It's a it's a great podcast. It's a series of
Speaker 1: episodes for Michael Lewis called Against the How Rufous And
Speaker 1: this will cover some of the ground we covered yesterday
Speaker 1: on radio. But how has this changed for you? You used
Speaker 1: to always be up on the openers, that was your thing,
Speaker 1: not so much any.
Speaker 4: Correct, Yeah, it's I mean, part of it's just that
Speaker 4: I'm getting old and lazy and fat. I'm just not
Speaker 4: you're so obese, you're so fat, not not obese fat,
Speaker 4: just it's a mindset Gill.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but well so I think I think part of
Speaker 3: it is like the is.
Speaker 4: Drive is just there isn't the same drive. But but
Speaker 4: I think it's because there isn't the same biscuit. There
Speaker 4: isn't There aren't thirty percent edges just sitting out there
Speaker 4: that are going to disappear if you don't hit them,
Speaker 4: or if there are, there's not as many of them
Speaker 4: as there used to be. There used to be the
Speaker 4: case that that there is so much value hitting openers,
Speaker 4: especially when Will Hill put up openers the sports book,
Speaker 4: not the person like you. We just couldn't get enough
Speaker 4: money down. We'd be betting, like you know, they would
Speaker 4: take a thousand per and we'd get two hundred thousand down.
Speaker 4: And so we just have very big positions on the
Speaker 4: openers and then kind of event wait for things to
Speaker 4: kind of come back Super Weekend and kind of supplement
Speaker 4: it a little bit there, but just have a ton
Speaker 4: on these openers. And it was very much a race
Speaker 4: to get the openers. We had a whole team in
Speaker 4: Vegas we had people like someone was doing the loop
Speaker 4: going from Win to Venetian over to Treasure Island, literally
Speaker 4: doing it like every thirty minutes to check when the
Speaker 4: prop sheet's coming out. Like you know, you had your
Speaker 4: personal relationships with ticket writers and supervisors that came in
Speaker 4: handy at this time of year. It's not the same anymore.
Speaker 4: It kind of started with with mobile betting. Mobile betting
Speaker 4: made it so that you didn't have there wasn't that
Speaker 4: same return to sort of hustle that there used to
Speaker 4: be because anybody can just do it on their own.
Speaker 4: So that made the openers like last little or it
Speaker 4: made the openers not quite as lucrative. And then now
Speaker 4: with PASSPA being repealed and the fact that these books
Speaker 4: are coming out with props Sunday night, and the fact
Speaker 4: that you have these books pricing these more esoteric props
Speaker 4: most weeks, the books have a better idea of what
Speaker 4: they're what they're doing. And so if Win is pricing
Speaker 4: or I don't know, South Point or you know, they're
Speaker 4: pricing some prop that they only price once a year,
Speaker 4: they still have a market to look at because there
Speaker 4: is that prop up somewhere else Whereas in the past,
Speaker 4: it was kind of like they're putting up something there
Speaker 4: isn't really a market there, and so for that reason,
Speaker 4: it just isn't isn't as lucrative or to go after
Speaker 4: those openers, and like there's still plenty of value to
Speaker 4: pick to be picked up. I think if you go
Speaker 4: to like Westgate opening night, or if you get the
Speaker 4: south Point openers or stations. I haven't even checked it
Speaker 4: at stations this year, but I just decided that I'm
Speaker 4: not going to stress over it and I'm just going
Speaker 4: to like attack it this week rather than last week.
Speaker 1: That all that makes sense, especially the part about how
Speaker 1: now they do props kind of every week so they
Speaker 1: have the data, they have the muscle memory, which they
Speaker 1: didn't give that example though, give like just one example,
Speaker 1: just a sort of shed light on how it kind
Speaker 1: of used to be the Johnny Avello prop that he
Speaker 1: put out every single week.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's the one that stands out in my head.
Speaker 4: When he was at the wind it was will there
Speaker 4: be a roughing? The passer penalty called? And he would
Speaker 4: always open it no minus one fifteen, Yes, minus one fifteen,
Speaker 4: so you bet it minus one fifteen vetted minus one
Speaker 4: thirty vetitit minus one fifty minus one eighty you know, yes, ever, yes, clearly, yeah,
Speaker 4: come on, come on, Todd.
Speaker 2: Well that's why I said, but maybe other people might
Speaker 2: not have known that. So because you don't explain things, well,
Speaker 2: I have to step in.
Speaker 3: If they don't know.
Speaker 4: If people think that there's roughing the passer penalty is
Speaker 4: called in the majority of games, I don't know what
Speaker 4: to say to them.
Speaker 1: So and so the so. Not to pick on Johnny,
Speaker 1: but like he didn't adjust from year to year. There
Speaker 1: was no like analysis on their part on any I think.
Speaker 4: You just I think he just looked at the sheet
Speaker 4: that basically, I think he probably saved a version of
Speaker 4: the sheet from the previous year, like with which had
Speaker 4: the openers, not what it moved to. That's my own
Speaker 4: that's that's my only gassination. But it probably, to be
Speaker 4: fair to Johnny, it doesn't actually matter that that much.
Speaker 4: It's one game a year and and that stuff does
Speaker 4: get bet into shape by sharps, and when he's taking
Speaker 4: action from Wales on Super Bowl Sunday, the odds are
Speaker 4: pretty much in line with the market.
Speaker 1: It's it's so you have just made the sort of
Speaker 1: time allotment assessment at this point that while there might
Speaker 1: be some opportunity, it's not anywhere there it used to be,
Speaker 1: and so you're just not about that anymore.
Speaker 4: And so you general I think there still are big
Speaker 4: opportunities out there because they're the problem and you've gotten
Speaker 4: even more extensive and there. I think that there's a
Speaker 4: lot of opportunities probably surrounding sgps for people attacking that,
Speaker 4: but that's going to be that it's a different ballgame.
Speaker 1: So what percentage of your prop bets? And by the way,
Speaker 1: you have nothing on the on the side or total.
Speaker 1: You're not even interested in the side.
Speaker 4: I haven't even been made numbers. I haven't even looked
Speaker 4: at you.
Speaker 1: Have you been a side or total all year in
Speaker 1: the NFL.
Speaker 4: I've got a money line? Does that count?
Speaker 1: Okay? But that gets the impression.
Speaker 4: Money lines, teasers, first half, money lines, some derivatives. But
Speaker 4: I haven't I haven't bet a full game side of
Speaker 4: total or I haven't bet a full game side of
Speaker 4: total since like maybe Week three. I think early season,
Speaker 4: I thought there might I thought early season I might
Speaker 4: have had a little bit of alpha just being directionally
Speaker 4: correct on teams and over moves.
Speaker 2: So remember you real quick the thing about same game parlays?
Speaker 2: Are you and I assume this is what you're saying.
Speaker 2: You're basically saying there's certain correlations that they're not pricing properly,
Speaker 2: and because of that, they're making the same game parlay
Speaker 2: number incorrectly. Is that what you're saying.
Speaker 4: I think there are books that have some things in
Speaker 4: general they're not pricing properly. I've I kind of did
Speaker 4: a deep dive into this earlier this NFL season and
Speaker 4: went down that rabbit hole and found some interesting stuff.
Speaker 4: But the problem is it's hard, it's hard to scale out,
Speaker 4: to scale that out. I also think that there's a
Speaker 4: lot of opportunities because these are models built pricing all
Speaker 4: these correlations, and they're they are built to be generally correct,
Speaker 4: but there are going to be exceptions. I don't think
Speaker 4: any model is going to be able to hand be
Speaker 4: able to predict or properly priced the fact that the
Speaker 4: running back usage for running back one versus running back
Speaker 4: two correlation like on one specific team might look very
Speaker 4: different than another team, like clearly like think about think
Speaker 4: about the or I was called them the Giants because Saquon,
Speaker 4: but think about the Eagles and Saquon Like, there's not
Speaker 4: a ton of uncertainty in terms of what percentage of
Speaker 4: the running back carries he's going to get. I think
Speaker 4: you could say there's some uncertainty and how much Jalen
Speaker 4: Hurts is going to run the ball, but Saquon is
Speaker 4: going to get If he gets less than eighty percent
Speaker 4: of the running back carries, that would be a huge,
Speaker 4: huge shock unless he gets hurt. Agree, Yes, now, Kareem Hunt,
Speaker 4: I could see I wouldn't be shocked if he got
Speaker 4: seventy percent of the running back carries, and I also
Speaker 4: wouldn't be shocked if he got thirty percent of the
Speaker 4: running back carries.
Speaker 1: Okay, right, right, So.
Speaker 4: That's like I feel like, because so that's like a
Speaker 4: bellcow running back versus running back by committee. But there's
Speaker 4: running back by committee teams like the Falcons where you're
Speaker 4: generally getting about the same share every week, you know
Speaker 4: Al Gyre and b Jean Robinson, where there weren't weeks
Speaker 4: where one guy was getting like eighty percent the other
Speaker 4: guy was getting twenty. It was like in the sixty
Speaker 4: forty ish range one way or another most weeks, And
Speaker 4: if I remember correctly, at least that was the case
Speaker 4: when I was looking at it in like October November.
Speaker 4: But I could see with the uncertainty, I guess with Pachecko.
Speaker 4: You know, Pacheco came back from injury week thirteen. He
Speaker 4: hasn't been hasn't been great, but neither's Kareem Hunt. But
Speaker 4: they're trusting Kareem Hunt in these big situations. It seems
Speaker 4: like like to be able to get to get like
Speaker 4: that difficult one or two yards where they need it,
Speaker 4: like he and he's doing well that even though he's
Speaker 4: running for like three yards of carry, and so you
Speaker 4: could see I could see a world where Pachecko, like Pacheco,
Speaker 4: plays a good amount earlier in the game more than later.
Speaker 4: But if he if he starts off high, that they
Speaker 4: just keep riding him. Like I could see that that world.
Speaker 4: I think there's right. He was the belcow running back
Speaker 4: for that team before before he got hurt. The Kareem
Speaker 4: Hunt was also that before, meaning like six years ago.
Speaker 4: But however many years ago. Was My point is there's different,
Speaker 4: Like there's all these game specific things and team specific
Speaker 4: things that are that some general algorithm is going to
Speaker 4: have a really really tough time pricing, and so if
Speaker 4: you can find the sort of exceptions to the rule,
Speaker 4: I think there's always opportunity there.
Speaker 1: Interesting what what percentage? Then we talked about this yesterday.
Speaker 1: What percentage of your super Bowl prop bets now because
Speaker 1: you don't do opener, because you don't show up at
Speaker 1: the Westgate? What percentage of your super Bowl prop bets
Speaker 1: occur tomorrow on or day of game.
Speaker 4: Tomorrow tomorrow on versus day or day of game?
Speaker 1: In other words, day of game, is you know, percent
Speaker 1: tomorrow and is ninety five percent? Basically made any bets.
Speaker 4: I've made like four bets. I just was looking through
Speaker 4: and I was like, yea, I might as well bet something.
Speaker 1: I appreciate it.
Speaker 4: So basically I made no bets. So it's basically tomorrow
Speaker 4: it's gonna be basically everything, all right, and you share it.
Speaker 4: Assume Saturday Sunday would be Saturday Sunday will be like
Speaker 4: at least eighty five percent, I would think.
Speaker 1: And that is because your inclination, your assumption, which is
Speaker 1: a good one, is that people will bet stuff upwards
Speaker 1: over and you will come in on the unders.
Speaker 4: Generally speaking, yes, for some things, there's plenty of things
Speaker 4: where that's not going to happen too though, and so
Speaker 4: it's just a matter of this is when we'll all
Speaker 4: be ready to go and we'll have the team together,
Speaker 4: and I think we'll try to we mad bet some
Speaker 4: stuff a little bit earlier, just then maybe it can
Speaker 4: bounce back and we can bet it again. Just that
Speaker 4: way we can get more down Versus if we wait
Speaker 4: and wait and wait and bet something, then we don't
Speaker 4: give the market to sort of move back, then we
Speaker 4: we can't get as much down.
Speaker 1: Can you share what you have bet so far?
Speaker 4: I think I might have bet a under on interceptions,
Speaker 4: and I think I bet a yes on three unanswered scores.
Speaker 4: I bet some basic game prop stuff basically.
Speaker 1: Under on interception total interceptions by both teams, yes and yes.
Speaker 4: And that's one that's going to just get better, I think,
Speaker 4: because people are going to bet the yes and interceptions.
Speaker 4: People are betting those overs.
Speaker 1: People, but people's brains are wired that way. The three
Speaker 1: consecutive scorers that I'm sorry, Todd hold on one second,
Speaker 1: the three the three consecutive scores prop that Rufe has
Speaker 1: just mentioned is the one that I always say on
Speaker 1: this podcast, probably every year, is the prop that plummixes
Speaker 1: new betters the most, which is it's worded, will the
Speaker 1: team score three times in a row with the exception
Speaker 1: of two point conversions and extra points? And most new
Speaker 1: betters think to themselves, well, these are two of the
Speaker 1: best teams in football, if not the two best teams.
Speaker 1: It's got to be very unlikely that three scores happen
Speaker 1: in a row. And so they believe that the minus
Speaker 1: number is in the wrong side of this right. They
Speaker 1: believe the no should be heavily juiced, when in fact,
Speaker 1: it is the yes that is juiced and the yes
Speaker 1: at I think you bet it at minus one sixty,
Speaker 1: you were saying it's still a good bet.
Speaker 4: Looks like I got it at Westgate at minus one fifty,
Speaker 4: and I got it at Circa at minus one sixty,
Speaker 4: and that's the only Yeah, it's the only thing I
Speaker 4: bet at Circa. I also bet yes, yes, I'm sorry,
Speaker 4: case here, I bet yes, well, case your Philadelphia make
Speaker 4: a field goal in the fourth quarter, yes, minus one fifty, Okay,
Speaker 4: I don't think that was a So I just assumed
Speaker 4: you wouldn't stay there.
Speaker 1: And you know that you know that's a good bet,
Speaker 1: just from your muscle memory of how that numbers came up.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean that's algorithmic. It's based on it, well,
Speaker 4: it's based on how many total touchdowns and fieldals I
Speaker 4: have projected in the spread and total in the game.
Speaker 1: What's the number on the three consecutive scores. What's the
Speaker 1: number that you would not bet it at minus what?
Speaker 4: I don't think I would bet it at minus one
Speaker 4: seventy or above?
Speaker 1: Dodd, you were saying, I.
Speaker 2: Was just gonna ask about punts. I feel like punts
Speaker 2: have been just becoming less and less likely, so I
Speaker 2: don't know whether they've adjusted those down.
Speaker 4: Enough you've been watching.
Speaker 1: I think that's he loves the Skins.
Speaker 2: That's not just Redskins.
Speaker 1: I think Todd brings up Todd brings up a good
Speaker 1: point because I think, and this was Steve Feesik's point
Speaker 1: when he was on the radio side, which is, of
Speaker 1: all the things that books are least likely to have
Speaker 1: adjusted for here in twenty you know, beginning of twenty
Speaker 1: twenty five, but after the twenty twenty four season, is
Speaker 1: the rate at which teams are willing to go for
Speaker 1: fourth downs, which correlates with fewer punts, perhaps fewer field
Speaker 1: goal attempts. Would you agree with that general premise that's
Speaker 1: somewhere in one world.
Speaker 2: One other thing, long drives. We never used to see
Speaker 2: ten minute drives that are now that's like the norm.
Speaker 2: It happens all the time.
Speaker 4: Again, this is the Washington Redskins. That's the game they've
Speaker 4: been playing. I don't think that's every team.
Speaker 2: There's every I think punts are down in general in
Speaker 2: the league as a whole. You're right with the Redskins,
Speaker 2: but I think in general, you don't think the punts
Speaker 2: are down in the league as a whole.
Speaker 4: I don't know what they were last year. I actually
Speaker 4: I'm not low on punts in this game, believe it
Speaker 4: or not. I think maybe there's some recency bias. But
Speaker 4: I do think that we are seeing there's less explosive
Speaker 4: offense clearly than there was five years ago, because I
Speaker 4: think it's the the way defenses are have adapted. Defenses
Speaker 4: are fourteen team to have these fourteen exactly.
Speaker 2: Right, will I said, the fourteen play drive is now
Speaker 2: basically the defense has decided, let's see if you can
Speaker 2: beat us and not make a mistake in fourteen plays,
Speaker 2: and therefore we're getting less drives I mean, you have
Speaker 2: tons of NFL games now where there's three drives aside
Speaker 2: in the first half, and that's it because that first
Speaker 2: drive is you know a lot of times seven to
Speaker 2: eight minutes, same thing coming out of the third quarter
Speaker 2: happens all the time.
Speaker 1: Do you anticipate rufus? And I don't know if you're
Speaker 1: taking requests because you might not want to give away
Speaker 1: this stuff, but I'll ask because it came up on
Speaker 1: numbers game this morning. Do you anticipate any value on
Speaker 1: will a team attempt a two point conversion given the
Speaker 1: Given the Eagles propensity for wanting to toush push.
Speaker 4: I don't think you can touch push from two and
Speaker 4: a half yards out.
Speaker 1: No, but if you get a defensive if you get
Speaker 1: a defensive penalty, they'll It's an automatic for any team
Speaker 1: now on an extra point. I'm just curious if they've
Speaker 1: adjusted for that kind of thing. Maybe that's where I
Speaker 1: think the fourth I think I was interesting.
Speaker 4: I think that's the kind of thing the public's can
Speaker 4: to betting the yes on. And so I'm gonna if
Speaker 4: I bet that, I'm gonna wait and bet the no.
Speaker 4: Probably Okay, So I think I'll get a better price
Speaker 4: close to game time.
Speaker 1: Willie, Uh you you did bet the side here?
Speaker 3: I mean, not a big bet. And part of it
Speaker 3: is doing these shows and podcasts for two weeks. You know,
Speaker 3: come on here, I don't have anything in the game.
Speaker 3: We'll just move on. It's a super Bowl pill. They
Speaker 3: got to pick somebody out. I'm just gonna go with Mahomes,
Speaker 3: went with them last year, going with them all of
Speaker 3: these games before the Bills game, where it's just like
Speaker 3: I can put my head on the pill at night,
Speaker 3: knowing I bet my Homes and if I lose, I lose.
Speaker 3: I just h He's at the point where I don't
Speaker 3: want to go against them. I admit Philly getting a
Speaker 3: point and a Half's got the better roster, the better team,
Speaker 3: the better stats, yards for play, a lot of this stuff.
Speaker 3: I'm just I think Todd you put it well. Right
Speaker 3: as the Chiefs Bills game was winding down, right right
Speaker 3: after that came ended, probably going to be a close game.
Speaker 3: In a close game, do you want Andy Reid Mahomes
Speaker 3: and I'll throw in Bucker, the Chiefs kicker, Or do
Speaker 3: you want and Elliott who's been very, very shaky for them?
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's another huge thing. I agree with Chiefs. To me,
Speaker 2: it's Mahomes and Andy Reid and Spagnola against Sirianni Hurts
Speaker 2: and then you got Saque. But a running back can
Speaker 2: be game planned for. I feel like a lot easier.
Speaker 2: And I totally forgot about that. Jake Elliott has been
Speaker 2: a disaster. And if this becomes a close game, I
Speaker 2: don't know. I just think in the loarm, I would this.
Speaker 4: Guy's never want the postseason kick?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 4: Isn't Jake Elliott something like twenty four for twenty four
Speaker 4: in the postseason?
Speaker 3: He missed one. Last week's Washington he missed two extra
Speaker 3: points against the.
Speaker 2: Extra point I was in the I was at the game,
Speaker 2: and last last week.
Speaker 4: I know maybe maybe the graphic clue must have made
Speaker 4: him miss but but I did see, and I do
Speaker 4: vaguely Yeah, I do vaguely remember him missing last week.
Speaker 4: But but I guess before that he hadn't missed ever
Speaker 4: in the postseason.
Speaker 3: For a fielder. He's just he's been bad this year.
Speaker 1: Rufus has been skiing and playing golf. We don't have
Speaker 1: time for this anymore.
Speaker 3: Going to the bathroom, detail go to the bathroom.
Speaker 4: I want to pull this I'm gonna pull up these
Speaker 4: stats here because I now need to now I need
Speaker 4: to see.
Speaker 1: But heed, he was over one.
Speaker 4: Last week he missed. He missed a fifty plus yardfield
Speaker 4: goal he made he against the Rams, he made three
Speaker 4: for three field goals and one for three extra points.
Speaker 4: Three for three field goals and one for two extra points. See,
Speaker 4: this is a statement he's making to the team. He's like,
Speaker 4: stop this going forward on fourth down and scoring touchdowns,
Speaker 4: Like like I'm a field goal guy, Like we need
Speaker 4: field goals but for yeah, but like you look.
Speaker 2: When the Rams were driving, When the Rams were driving
Speaker 2: inside the fifteen, I was hoping that they didn't score
Speaker 2: that touchdown because Jake Elliott would have been killed by
Speaker 2: the Philadelphia fans. The rabid Eagles lunatics would have found
Speaker 2: him and killed him because he would have been his
Speaker 2: fault that lost that game.
Speaker 3: So he's missed the kicking all three playoff games. Missed
Speaker 3: next against which I didn't remember.
Speaker 4: Okay, but let's what about under pressure?
Speaker 2: Well, extra points are kind of important, are they not.
Speaker 1: Under pressure?
Speaker 4: What's a big a kick in a big pressure?
Speaker 2: What's the sample size on that? How many kicks does
Speaker 2: he had at the end of the game for the
Speaker 2: win or not. In this year, probably not many.
Speaker 3: I don't know, but we could look for.
Speaker 4: We could look back in his career, his career field
Speaker 4: goal percentage. He's twenty two for twenty three in field
Speaker 4: goals in the playoffs career, and I only thirty two
Speaker 4: for thirty seven extra points.
Speaker 2: Well that's that. Yeah, that's pretty good now.
Speaker 4: But you're I mean, like the extra points do matter clearly,
Speaker 4: and that that's a I stand corrected. It was just
Speaker 4: being Arrian.
Speaker 1: I'm on the Chiefs too. It's it's you know, it's
Speaker 1: a again like will it's you know, we're this in
Speaker 1: a window and early window in week eleven, would I
Speaker 1: bet it? I'm being honest.
Speaker 3: Problem known to man. I would be teasing Eagles everywhere
Speaker 3: from week eleven. Unfortunately there's not another teaser late.
Speaker 1: But Patrick Mahomes has won, and then the Chiefs have
Speaker 1: won seventeen consecutive one score games, twelve in a row
Speaker 1: this year, so I'm certainly not fading him. Let me
Speaker 1: just ask you this for those because I think Todd
Speaker 1: you're on the Chiefs as well.
Speaker 2: I love I love the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: Here I asked, I'll ask this though, even for those
Speaker 1: of us who are on the Chiefs, if I I
Speaker 1: said this this morning, if I came to you from
Speaker 1: the future and I said, oh, ok, guys, a team,
Speaker 1: one of these teams blew out the other one, even
Speaker 1: as Chiefs backers, wouldn't you probably guess it's the Eagles
Speaker 1: that did the blowing out.
Speaker 2: Probably yes.
Speaker 1: So that's a little weird, right, So it's like we
Speaker 1: were even those of us who are backing the Chiefs
Speaker 1: are like, yeah, because they have this one score ability
Speaker 1: and they just figure it out. However, we also acknowledge
Speaker 1: that the Eagles do have a game script, as we've
Speaker 1: seen in numerable times this year, where they just wear
Speaker 1: you out, and so that's an that's an interesting sort
Speaker 1: of thing. I don't think I ever remember going into
Speaker 1: a Super Bowl, let alone any other game where I'm like, yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm on this team, but if it's a blowout, it's
Speaker 1: probably as.
Speaker 2: But I was kind of surprised, how how the like
Speaker 2: that Redskins game was a lot closer than people realized.
Speaker 2: Fifty five twenty three final. But let's be fair, if
Speaker 2: they don't fumble the ball, you know, on that end
Speaker 2: of a half situation, and it goes into the half
Speaker 2: twenty to twelve. And then even after that, the ball
Speaker 2: I mean, it wasn't like the Eagles defense was just
Speaker 2: shutting them down. And then I went to that game
Speaker 2: in Philadelphia against the Rams, and I was shocked by
Speaker 2: how much the Rams were able to move the ball
Speaker 2: in the Eagles. I thought the Eagles defense was a
Speaker 2: lot better then it really played the last two weeks
Speaker 2: of the playoffs. To me, I didn't think it was
Speaker 2: it was that spectacular. I certainly was surprised that Washington
Speaker 2: was able to move the ball as well as they were,
Speaker 2: you know, on the road like that in a playoff game,
Speaker 2: and that game could have been a lot tighter. So
Speaker 2: to me, I feel like, you're really going to stop
Speaker 2: Kansas City. You're not going to stop Kansas City. Come on,
Speaker 2: in the end, it comes down to the end. Night
Speaker 2: Holmes to make a big play. He's going to make
Speaker 2: the play.
Speaker 1: The Eagles Skins game was thirty four to twenty three Eagles,
Speaker 1: but the Redskins had the ball and that's when Eckler
Speaker 1: got the ball poked out. Now, the Eagles deserve credit
Speaker 1: because it was a great poke out right like Eggler
Speaker 1: was getting back. Let me just let me just finish that.
Speaker 1: Eckler was getting backed up and he got the perfect poke,
Speaker 1: so he do deserve credit. But like the final score
Speaker 1: was cosmetic, I'll give you that. And can they count.
Speaker 1: That's the thing, by the way, with the championship games,
Speaker 1: the Skins fumbled three times, the Eagles were covered all three.
Speaker 1: The Bills fumbled four times. They recovered all of them.
Speaker 1: Our brain doesn't usually process.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, kids City all the game going away, if
Speaker 2: they went to have fumbled going in at seven to three,
Speaker 2: Kansas City's driving and fumbles the ball. Way if it
Speaker 2: goes fourteen to three there and kans City's getting the
Speaker 2: ball to start the second half, I think, you know,
Speaker 2: Buffalo's And by the way, the play that the big
Speaker 2: play that everyone made a big deal about, which is
Speaker 2: probably correct, that that there wasn't a catchdown that actually
Speaker 2: helped the Bills because then the Bill's got a chance
Speaker 2: to come back and match the touchdown to make it
Speaker 2: twenty one sixteen at the half. So I don't know.
Speaker 2: I to me, it's just I don't know. I mean, look,
Speaker 2: I respect that the Eagles. I think they're a great team.
Speaker 2: They're definitely deserved to be in the Super Bowl. In
Speaker 2: the end, I just feel like it's going to be
Speaker 2: Andy Reid against Siriani and Mahomes against Jalen Hurtson, and
Speaker 2: I'll take the Chiefs.
Speaker 3: Chiefs also dropped a couple of interceptions from Allen that
Speaker 3: first drive, like the first two passes one of them.
Speaker 3: They dropped two on the same play. And I think
Speaker 3: the Chiefs took a knee inside the red zone when
Speaker 3: they got the first down to seal it, So if
Speaker 3: they needed more points, they probably.
Speaker 1: Could have got more points. For whatever that's worth. Any
Speaker 1: props for either of you guys, will or not?
Speaker 3: I mean, I know got it over is a popular one.
Speaker 3: I think that's still a good one. Chiefs have struggled
Speaker 3: with tight end. I think they've given up an average
Speaker 3: like seventy two seventy three yards per tight end. Dowers
Speaker 3: went for one forty likely went for one hundred and change.
Speaker 3: I think matchup wise, Goddar get into like five for
Speaker 3: sixty or something is certainly reasonable. So I do like
Speaker 3: the Goddard over and I don't think the Chiefs will
Speaker 3: be able to run the ball, so Mahomes over attempts.
Speaker 3: I know it's high at thirty five and a half,
Speaker 3: thirty six and a half. I still like the over.
Speaker 3: I think this is going to have to be a
Speaker 3: Mahomes games. I don't think. I just don't think with
Speaker 3: their offensive line against the Eagles defensive line, I don't
Speaker 3: think it's one where they're gonna be able to run
Speaker 3: it for three four yards of carrier.
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna have to throw it a lot.
Speaker 1: For those who are wondering, because a little tradition on
Speaker 1: this last podcast is that we do halftime bets in
Speaker 1: National Lamp and bets if they're available, and they are available,
Speaker 1: and I've made bets. Kendrick Lamar is your halftime show.
Speaker 1: I have two bets on his first song. One is
Speaker 1: at two to one. They not like us at two
Speaker 1: to one, not the short shot. That was the bet there.
Speaker 1: I also have a Friskar with you don't think that's
Speaker 1: gonna be it? You think he's gonna end it with that?
Speaker 3: Probably I've seen the possibilities and I just feel like
Speaker 3: he's going to go outside the box.
Speaker 1: Well, the longer shot I took. The longer shot I
Speaker 1: took was at seven to one, and that's the song
Speaker 1: that's a swimming pools where he basically says he goes
Speaker 1: wish Nev drank Todd drank che by the way, uh
Speaker 1: wager wager on the line.
Speaker 2: Wait, can I just say one thing? Kendrick Lamar came
Speaker 2: right up here, right now and said hi to me.
Speaker 2: I wouldn't be able to tell you it's him.
Speaker 1: He speaks very highly of Utah.
Speaker 2: No, he might be. He must be a huge superstar.
Speaker 2: Just don't know anything about that world at all.
Speaker 3: Did they take a reasonable bet from Megully?
Speaker 1: No, they did not take a reason Okay, is the
Speaker 1: correct answer to that question? The uh. I will tell
Speaker 1: you this if if National Anthem CLV is what you're
Speaker 1: looking for, I'm your man. John Baptiste, the American Treasure
Speaker 1: is singing the national anthem. He's more known for his
Speaker 1: keyboard playing his keyboard. He's a keyboardist and a just
Speaker 1: a general all amazing musician. He has a couple renditions
Speaker 1: of the star Spangled banner online. One hundred and twenty
Speaker 1: five seconds is where it was line two minutes and
Speaker 1: five seconds minus one sixty under. I was like pound
Speaker 1: the under minus one sixty's not nearly enough. It moved
Speaker 1: since then has moved two seconds lower. Since that has
Speaker 1: moved another two seconds lower. Now it's at one hundred
Speaker 1: and twenty one one seconds, So two minutes in one
Speaker 1: second I would still go under.
Speaker 3: That'd be mine one hundred and twenty one seconds, also
Speaker 3: known as the wish nev.
Speaker 2: Why is it known as the wish nev?
Speaker 1: I don't guilty.
Speaker 2: It would have been a lot less than a minute
Speaker 2: and twenty one seconds. It's like twenty one seconds period.
Speaker 2: And plus with the tariffs, you got to take a
Speaker 2: couple of seconds off of that.
Speaker 1: Oh terriff humor. I get that in there, all right.
Speaker 1: So any other props that we any other insights that
Speaker 1: we haven't shared here, anything rop wise, anything where do
Speaker 1: you see?
Speaker 3: If he doesn't mind rufus, this is a popular one.
Speaker 3: Scoring the first six minutes, scoring the first five minutes.
Speaker 3: With the Super Bowl, they let you pick the time.
Speaker 3: Is that something that you've bet in the past, Is
Speaker 3: that something you have interest in? And is your inclination
Speaker 3: to usually go yes or no? It all depends on
Speaker 3: the game.
Speaker 4: So that's of his price basically act really now it
Speaker 4: didn't used to be, but so I haven't found value
Speaker 4: either way, And I've just been doing it off of
Speaker 4: spread and total, so you know, I mean there used
Speaker 4: to be more value on the yes because people thought
Speaker 4: that teams start slow in the super Bowl because historically
Speaker 4: they have right and and so I was kind of
Speaker 4: a contrary into that, thinking that was overfit. But what
Speaker 4: area I didn't think this year?
Speaker 1: Right? I was just gonna ask you, that'll be perfect.
Speaker 2: You said that that there's you know a lot of
Speaker 2: this stuff has become more formulaic and they understand it.
Speaker 2: What what areas if you don't mind sharing? Do you
Speaker 2: feel like have not really been you know, explored enough
Speaker 2: to the point where there's gonna be a little bit
Speaker 2: bigger mistakes.
Speaker 4: Theoretically, I think it's the more esoteric stuff that maybe
Speaker 4: only one book is offering, where there isn't a lot
Speaker 4: to go off of, and the stuff that and offered
Speaker 4: every week. I think those are those are the greater chances.
Speaker 4: I mean, I don't have anything off the top of
Speaker 4: my head.
Speaker 3: Now, will you bet this game live? Rufus?
Speaker 1: No, he's not a live better.
Speaker 3: Because I actually do think if you bet the Chiefs
Speaker 3: and I thought about this too, maybe I'll bet a
Speaker 3: little more than I want on the Chiefs and if
Speaker 3: they go up seven nothing and I can get Philly
Speaker 3: plus three and a half, I mean, I just I
Speaker 3: don't see the Chiefs winning by a lot, right, Kansas
Speaker 3: City winning by a field goal seems like, yeah, are
Speaker 3: very realistic outcomes, So getting it. You can get the
Speaker 3: Eagles over a field goal, I know you're landing will
Speaker 3: extra juice lie, but that I don't think is a
Speaker 3: terrible way to play it. That's the other thing too,
Speaker 3: where you're getting a point a half of the Eagles
Speaker 3: if they go three and our or if the Chiefs
Speaker 3: start up three nothing, I mean, you're gonna get You're
Speaker 3: gonna get a better number on Philly at some point,
Speaker 3: you would think, unless it's just Philly all the way,
Speaker 3: which is something I keep in mind.
Speaker 4: Are the Chiefs the better team to come back? Nothing
Speaker 4: better equipped?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 4: Probably what they've done under Mahomes, Like every game, it
Speaker 4: feels like, especially in.
Speaker 3: The playoffs, they've erased a lot of double digit, double
Speaker 3: digit deficits for sure.
Speaker 4: What is isn't what's Mahomes's record when trailing double digits,
Speaker 4: isn't it? It's like insane?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I know, the first of all they won, they
Speaker 3: trailed every single playoff game by double digits, including the
Speaker 3: Super Bowl, yet won every playoff game by double digits,
Speaker 3: which is just incredible to think about.
Speaker 1: Of the season, I.
Speaker 4: Think that he overcame multiple double digit deficits and it's
Speaker 4: not like they lost a lot of games this year.
Speaker 1: You guys understand the I do not understand the Chiefs
Speaker 1: fatigue or the Chiefs hate. Like with Tom Brady and
Speaker 1: the Patriots, I sort of got it. There was Spygate,
Speaker 1: there was deflate Gate, even though it was never proven,
Speaker 1: the Flay game, and people just I guess Tom Brady
Speaker 1: was more of a cerebral player, wasn't really athleticism, and
Speaker 1: people got really started to hate the Patriots, And I
Speaker 1: got that. I don't get with the Chiefs, like Mahomes
Speaker 1: is just the most the most fun player to watch.
Speaker 1: They're going for a three peat, excell. I love any
Speaker 1: sport that has a team that is not only dynastic
Speaker 1: but just awesome to watch, like great like this and
Speaker 1: doing things. I mean, seventeen to one score wins in
Speaker 1: a row that's never getting broken.
Speaker 3: Never a different version of themselves too, where they trade
Speaker 3: Tyreek kill and what if somebody told you at the moment,
Speaker 3: all right, they traded Tyreek Hill, which was a kind
Speaker 3: of a blockbuster out of nowhere to deal to Miami.
Speaker 3: At the time was in March or something. They're gonna
Speaker 3: win the Super Bowl this year, They're gonna win the
Speaker 3: sup Bowl the next year. Then they're gonna be playing
Speaker 3: for the Suer Bowl in the third year. It is.
Speaker 1: It is remarkable Duke's in the PNW. No way someone
Speaker 1: has historically punctual as Todd would be late for the
Speaker 1: season finale of the megapod. Richard Palmont is he live
Speaker 1: from a cork basement in New Orleans? No, still at
Speaker 1: his mom's. Itit'sburg Buddhist Man. The first annual superb oriol
Speaker 1: Megapod twenty twenty four Baseball Review Pod with tortured Orioles fan,
Speaker 1: Rufus Peabody Yankees fan and noted house Steinbrenner Hatered not
Speaker 1: the will Hill and empty PNC Park Heckler, Todd wishnet
Speaker 1: and then finally does Todd wishnev have a bunch of
Speaker 1: old driver's licenses stabled to the cork attic wall behind
Speaker 1: him like Judge Valkenheiser did in Nothing But trouble. I
Speaker 1: don't know that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was really I was really bummed last year
Speaker 2: with the Orioles because I was really enjoying betting Orioles
Speaker 2: team totals over like every game and it was winning
Speaker 2: every single game, and then all of a sudden, it
Speaker 2: was just it went empty and I got sad, Like
Speaker 2: the Orioles just went like deathly cold offensively in the
Speaker 2: last part of the year. That's what I was.
Speaker 4: They really limped in. They had they had no vibes
Speaker 4: entering the playoffs, negative vibes.
Speaker 2: But if you remember, like in June and July, they
Speaker 2: were crushing the ball every single games like eight runs,
Speaker 2: ten runs, was insane.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, they swept the Yankees or something didn't. Something happened.
Speaker 1: They had a huge series and then late and then
Speaker 1: I just went all the I have a question Riuver's
Speaker 1: last thing about a prop uh opening kickoffs? I think
Speaker 1: it's opening kickoffs. Will the opening kickoff be a touchback?
Speaker 1: That kind of thing. Obviously, we have new kickoff rules
Speaker 1: new now these days. When you put that kind of
Speaker 1: stuff into a model, is one year's sample size enough
Speaker 1: for you to make a bet on or is that
Speaker 1: just not enough?
Speaker 4: I would say one year is enough. I haven't even
Speaker 4: looked at kickoffs yet, to be honest, but you will
Speaker 4: haven't probably. But again it's if there were huge edges,
Speaker 4: they would have already been picked off by other sharp
Speaker 4: betters looking for mispricings there. So I don't anticipate it
Speaker 4: being a very lucrative thing to do. But at the
Speaker 4: same time, I probably need that to figure out, like
Speaker 4: longest kickoff return, number of kickoff returns, things like that.
Speaker 3: It's like that, what do you guys do for snacks
Speaker 3: during the game?
Speaker 4: Oh? Stress, eat whatever is in front of me.
Speaker 1: I do too, I do too. You don't.
Speaker 3: You don't order to go or anything. You just wherever
Speaker 3: you are.
Speaker 4: I have other people like we we we have a
Speaker 4: party every year, a party. It's like twelve of us
Speaker 4: that are all either they were all at some point
Speaker 4: affiliated with the betting group or friends of the original
Speaker 4: betting group from back in like twelve years ago. So
Speaker 4: it's it's not it's not super wild, but someone else
Speaker 4: deals with the food situation. I'm always too busy with
Speaker 4: getting ready for the game betting wise.
Speaker 1: Where you do watch it at this point, you do
Speaker 1: watch it rufous at this. Yeah, well, of course not much.
Speaker 4: It was only once I didn't I will say during
Speaker 4: I think it was the Bengals Super Bowl. The first
Speaker 4: quarter went so poorly that I just went and got
Speaker 4: in the hot tub and just didn't watch for like
Speaker 4: a few drives. But then it ended up being a
Speaker 4: good super Bowl.
Speaker 1: What are you going to do? You have nothing specifically.
Speaker 1: Probably I'll just probably get Chipotle all the day, tod.
Speaker 4: How about you watching it so.
Speaker 2: Well? Because I do, you know, really take my food
Speaker 2: intake very seriously lately. You know, I'll be uh, I'll
Speaker 2: probably I mean, there's a good chance I may die
Speaker 2: of diabetes in the next week, so you have to
Speaker 2: put that in the model too. It's probably about plus
Speaker 2: eight fifty that I could go down. And and if
Speaker 2: the you know, the ozempic gets tariffed and I can't
Speaker 2: afford ozempic anymore. Hell, I could be five hundred by
Speaker 2: next next season.
Speaker 1: And you know, you what's to deal with you is
Speaker 1: the ozempic keeping your weight where it is? Are we
Speaker 1: going with that?
Speaker 2: I mean, I think the ozempic has helped me not
Speaker 2: be three seventy, but I'm still three twenty, So it's
Speaker 2: a disaster though, But that's just because my mental problems
Speaker 2: are so deeply ingrained that it's obviously, you know, not
Speaker 2: just the food. You know, I obviously have such strong
Speaker 2: addiction issues with food that it's like ridiculous.
Speaker 3: Don't you take Fez's advice and just don't eat as
Speaker 3: much or whatever?
Speaker 2: Well, that's a great idea. I've never thought of that.
Speaker 2: I never thought of drinking a lot of water and
Speaker 2: not eating as much. And when he gives those great ideas,
Speaker 2: sometimes I wonder, how could this guy be wasted in
Speaker 2: the field of sports gambling. He really should be like
Speaker 2: running in the world. He should be like, you know,
Speaker 2: the next Elon Musk, you know, Stevie Fesik with these
Speaker 2: ideas of maybe eating less. That's a good concept, and
Speaker 2: it's something that people have never really cried.
Speaker 4: Do you think Steve's ever told drug addicts just.
Speaker 1: Just just say, you know, I've never thought of that.
Speaker 4: I never thought I had a choice.
Speaker 1: I don't know what. I don't know what I enjoy more. Though,
Speaker 1: when when fees gives that advice, or the way that
Speaker 1: Todd takes it, well, well, I try to say that,
Speaker 1: you try to explain him.
Speaker 2: Is there such a world. Is there a word in
Speaker 2: the dictionary called compulsive? Is does that word exist or not?
Speaker 2: Because if it does exist, then it's something. If it
Speaker 2: doesn't exist, then I'm with you. There's no such word
Speaker 2: as compulsivity, and there's no such thing as psychological you know, situations.
Speaker 2: And that's the world he lives in. But it's quite
Speaker 2: possible he may be a robot from another simulation. So
Speaker 2: that is another reason why he may not believe in
Speaker 2: such things, because I don't believe AI will have compulsive
Speaker 2: of course, although if the if the large language models
Speaker 2: are big enough, maybe they'll teach computers to be compulsive too,
Speaker 2: and we'll start having AI robots that are fat.
Speaker 3: You never did give a compliment to the Starbucks menu today,
Speaker 3: said they streamlined it, cut out a few things. He
Speaker 3: said it's still overpriced and the lines are too long,
Speaker 3: et cetera. But he did have some Starbucks commentary this
Speaker 3: morning which I found interesting.
Speaker 4: Exten just I mean, his Twitter is just he'll go
Speaker 4: from betting exchanges whatever. Yes, but it's it's some sometimes
Speaker 4: there's just this like lack of I don't say lack
Speaker 4: of self awareness in some ways, but but yes, someone
Speaker 4: like I guess something that I'm like, what were you thinking?
Speaker 1: They noticed? Self awareness? What? Whatever?
Speaker 2: Do not ever bet a money line over minus four
Speaker 2: hundred ever, ever ever, and then becomes famous for losing
Speaker 2: them for dude to fairly Dickinson. So he's not always
Speaker 2: exactly consistent. Now, with all that said, we love Tavie,
Speaker 2: but the consistency and the self awareness sometimes are a
Speaker 2: little lacking.
Speaker 1: The greatest guy, we too, but we tell him to
Speaker 1: his faith. Yeah, tell it to his faith.
Speaker 3: If he's still listening to Yes, he's totally.
Speaker 1: I always tell him in real life it goes, maybe
Speaker 1: he's such a normal, reasonable person in real life? Are
Speaker 1: you such an asshole on Twitter? What happens to you?
Speaker 1: And he does have a little the thing that I
Speaker 1: appreciate he's does have awareness in the moment where he's like, yeah,
Speaker 1: you're probably right corner. Right the second he turns the corner,
Speaker 1: he's just firing on Twitter again. You just can't help himself.
Speaker 1: He's like, if there was a nozebic for Twitter for
Speaker 1: being a Twitter asshole, he should take it, DoD what
Speaker 1: did you say? It's you hear voices, food voices. I
Speaker 1: think it's actually interesting you hear food voices, and then that.
Speaker 2: Is a bad way of explaining it. But there's I mean,
Speaker 2: people who have dealt with compulsive eating will understand what
Speaker 2: I'm talking about. People who haven't will not understand. You know,
Speaker 2: the urges that that I'm getting for food to do
Speaker 2: something improperly with food, because I'm planning every day to
Speaker 2: eat healthy too many of the days. Maybe not every day.
Speaker 2: Most some days I'm just demoralized. But many days I'm
Speaker 2: planning on doing the right thing. I have a streak
Speaker 2: of three good days, or twenty good days or seven
Speaker 2: good days. But the problem is is whatever's running the show,
Speaker 2: and the subconscious is obviously stronger than the conscious, and
Speaker 2: that I don't know how to explain that to people
Speaker 2: who don't have that issue, other than to say, I
Speaker 2: understand why you think I'm crazy. Because if I go
Speaker 2: into a bar, I don't have to have a drink.
Speaker 2: I mean, I could have an alcoholic drink today and
Speaker 2: never have one for another five years, and I wouldn't
Speaker 2: even hear a call to my brain to have some
Speaker 2: alcoholic beverage. So when a guy desperately needs an alcoholic drink,
Speaker 2: I don't understand what he's feeling. So obviously I don't
Speaker 2: have that thing. So that's probably the way other people
Speaker 2: are thinking about me when I drive past the Pizza Sharp,
Speaker 2: just don't go into the fucking Pizza Sharp. What's wrong
Speaker 2: with you? And I understand what they're saying, however, it's
Speaker 2: I don't think what's happening in their brain is the
Speaker 2: same that's happening in my brain. And that's why I
Speaker 2: use the example of alcohol, because I have no interest
Speaker 2: in alcohol whatsoever.
Speaker 1: Tim Lawson chimes in, doing something improperly with food definitely
Speaker 1: makes it sound like you're screwing your food. What the difference?
Speaker 2: I mean, I probably do if it was zab You're done.
Speaker 1: But yeah, that's a good reason. Okay. And on that note,
Speaker 1: Rufus appreciated good luck with all your bets that you
Speaker 1: are about to make ninety five percent of apparently for
Speaker 1: Super Bowl fifty nine. We're all the rest of us
Speaker 1: are all in the chiefs, no totals. Nobody's betting the
Speaker 1: total in this game, nobody not here.
Speaker 4: I'm going to be rooting for the under, probably just
Speaker 4: because it props. Yeah, it's always I'll probably be rooting
Speaker 4: for nothing to happen.
Speaker 2: So you probably liked that Patriots round game.
Speaker 1: I love boring.
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, of course, I love boring super Bowls.
Speaker 2: That was the super Bowl was on the actions.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was the one where you had the Rams
Speaker 1: that hitting exactly three points for a good amount.
Speaker 3: I remember that that was before.
Speaker 4: That was literally like the most boring super Bowl to
Speaker 4: watch from a perspective of like a fan of entertainment.
Speaker 1: But it was.
Speaker 4: But I was loving every minute of it. It's like
Speaker 4: nothing tappening. It's amazing.
Speaker 3: This is what I fin There're being a late field
Speaker 3: goal in garbage time? Did they miss one late?
Speaker 1: They missed? I missed it. Yeah, they missed one late
Speaker 1: wide left. Yeah, would have easily won.
Speaker 3: The Pats did nothing. I remember the Rams finally got
Speaker 3: a first down like across midfield when the game was
Speaker 3: maybe tied, and they called it back with a whole
Speaker 3: that That was one Brady did not play well in
Speaker 3: that game. That was one they could have lost.
Speaker 4: That's neither off all.
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, you're right. That was the Todd Wished Discovery
Speaker 1: super Bowl. Todd wishne plucked out of a crowd for
Speaker 1: showtime Docus. I actually haven't watch I got to watch that.
Speaker 4: How do you how do you feel how many years
Speaker 4: ago is this four?
Speaker 1: Five, six years ago? Now six years ago?
Speaker 2: Because it was filming the football season of twenty eighteen
Speaker 2: and the Super Bowl of twenty nineteen, so it was
Speaker 2: exactly six years ago.
Speaker 4: So six years How do you feel about your appearance
Speaker 4: on that? Like? Looking back?
Speaker 2: How do I feel about it?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 2: I mean in what sense? Well, I feel like I
Speaker 2: would have never met somebody like Gil had not been
Speaker 2: so that was a huge positive there, You know, I don't.
Speaker 2: The truth is, I knew exactly what I was getting
Speaker 2: myself into, so I didn't, like, I didn't want to
Speaker 2: appear too smart because I was worried, you know, that
Speaker 2: I would get limited or something like that. So that
Speaker 2: was fine, and then you know, other than maybe you
Speaker 2: know it not going anywhere. But I didn't really care
Speaker 2: whether it was fine. I guess overall, I don't really.
Speaker 2: I was fine about it, and I knew that they
Speaker 2: could they would twist certain things and everything ahead of time,
Speaker 2: so I wasn't really But I'm not that concerned about
Speaker 2: what everybody thinks. Otherwise I wouldn't do a megapod for
Speaker 2: my mom's organic would I? And have you know fun
Speaker 2: of me endlessly. But that's fine.
Speaker 1: Yeah, rufus. Have you seen it?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I saw it back in the day.
Speaker 1: I really do think like Todd's Todd's storyline, if you will,
Speaker 1: with Deanna was the sweetest part of that docu series.
Speaker 1: When Todd is with Deanna in Vegas, people still recognize them.
Speaker 1: They recognized Todd period. When they're together, they recognize them.
Speaker 1: Todd's a fucking idiot because she loves him. So let's
Speaker 1: just get that out of the way. But I will
Speaker 1: say this and I and I think I think the showrunner,
Speaker 1: Dave Check would agree with me. So I don't think
Speaker 1: I'm talking out of school. But you know, like I
Speaker 1: was sort of consulting with them before and I got
Speaker 1: cracked in there and I got you know, that was
Speaker 1: my contribution. But I think the real sort of fascinating
Speaker 1: thing from that is overall was they had four characters
Speaker 1: in there. The most prominent, I mean, most prominently remembered
Speaker 1: is of course Vegas. Dave tout of all Touts and
Speaker 1: their approach behind the scenes. Dave Checked the showrunner, Luke
Speaker 1: the director, was you know, because I said them, I go,
Speaker 1: are you sure you really want to include this? Guy
Speaker 1: who's like the bottom of the barrel when it comes
Speaker 1: to these touts, you don't want to do this, and
Speaker 1: they go, no, don't worry, Gil, we show it. We
Speaker 1: have it on we have it on film. How he
Speaker 1: just absolutely is full of it and how he scams
Speaker 1: people the way he does things, so it's obvious it's
Speaker 1: going to be great, and it actually the game results
Speaker 1: went our way, and so it really shows that. And
Speaker 1: in the end what ended up happening was they were right.
Speaker 1: They had it all there on screen, but just sort
Speaker 1: of anecdotally, at least half the people who watched it
Speaker 1: didn't walk away thinking, oh, yeah, look at this scam artist.
Speaker 1: Half the people walked away were like because people are morons,
Speaker 1: and they go, yeah, but he's got the house in
Speaker 1: Cabo and he's got the car, you know, like that's how.
Speaker 1: And so that was kind of the biggest thing I
Speaker 1: remember from that docu series was that very strange.
Speaker 2: We'll get to know the sports as you well know
Speaker 2: the sports, he said, all attention and good attention.
Speaker 4: Some people's philosophy on it, and.
Speaker 2: But let's be fair, sports gambler is not rufous. The
Speaker 2: average sports gambler is not rufous. It's not even me
Speaker 2: or Will. The average sports gambler is moron, okay. And
Speaker 2: it's not even the beating the bod podcast uh listenership
Speaker 2: that I would I would. I would submit that the
Speaker 2: listenership to the show is much more intelligent than the
Speaker 2: average problem. And I know this because I said in
Speaker 2: sports books all the time and I talked to these people,
Speaker 2: the average person that bets on sports is literally a moron. Okay.
Speaker 2: Now some of them are slightly more intelligent than others,
Speaker 2: but are really not that bright, okay. And you could
Speaker 2: argue the same about me on some level as being
Speaker 2: very like me, And you always say, Gilly, at least
Speaker 2: were at least Stevie's smart enough to admit that the
Speaker 2: market is better than that man. And on some on
Speaker 2: some end, you know, I'm starting to believe that on
Speaker 2: the end game too, because the end game is getting
Speaker 2: so sophisticated that I'm not sure I can beat it
Speaker 2: anymore at in games. So at least I have some
Speaker 2: self awareness. But really, if you talk to the people
Speaker 2: that bet on sports, normally, these are not MENSA members, Okay.
Speaker 3: I would sometimes at the book and sometimes the best
Speaker 3: conversations are You're just a fly on the wall. The people,
Speaker 3: the person you're right, the person you're left. Sometimes they're
Speaker 3: you're putting the bet talking to their butt. This will
Speaker 3: never Oh, he's definitely going to do this. You hear,
Speaker 3: just sometimes I just want to record it. You hear
Speaker 3: the funniest thing of these people putting in the beds.
Speaker 1: There was a there was supposed to be I don't
Speaker 1: know what happened to it. I never found out, but
Speaker 1: there was supposed to be an HBO documentary about sports betting,
Speaker 1: and Crack got me into it. I believe it was
Speaker 1: Crack who got me into it. I think so. And
Speaker 1: I ended up spending one day at circle on a Saturday.
Speaker 1: What was the game? What was the amazing Alabama college
Speaker 1: football game this year? Was it against Georgia? Yeah, Georgia Alabama.
Speaker 1: That day and the entire day I spent in between
Speaker 1: a young lady in her twenties who's an influencer on Instagram,
Speaker 1: a sports betting influencer, and then a guy, a young
Speaker 1: brash guy on my left who claimed to be the
Speaker 1: biggest sports better in the world. And so I basically
Speaker 1: spent three hours listening to the bullshit and I just
Speaker 1: thought to myself, I'm like, oh my god, this is
Speaker 1: what this is, right, Like, I had to spend three
Speaker 1: hours being like, yeah, that's not true, that's not true.
Speaker 1: I'm like, I'm sure I'm great for this documentary, right,
Speaker 1: because they're like remember the kick with Brandon Aubrey missed
Speaker 1: in some game right before that. The young lady was convinced,
Speaker 1: convinced that.
Speaker 3: Those are their favorite words. This is rigg, that's a lock.
Speaker 3: I mean, they're so certain of everything.
Speaker 1: And I would say to her, I would be like,
Speaker 1: so you think someone in Las Vegas, a person called
Speaker 1: how does this work? They called the Cowboys sidelines, and
Speaker 1: then they communicated in and she just happened. That's what happened.
Speaker 1: And this guy claims that he's the biggest sports better
Speaker 1: in the world, guy on my left, because all you
Speaker 1: have to do is go against them, And I'm like, oh,
Speaker 1: probably not that so, but anyway, to your point, Todd, right,
Speaker 1: no matter how much those guys tried to make action,
Speaker 1: like okay, at least people can see the scam. It's
Speaker 1: this wasn't better right, which never saw the light of day.
Speaker 1: I was like, oh my.
Speaker 3: God, oh they're not using it. For anything.
Speaker 1: Well, I don't know, we've never heard anything since.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I know, you must have not been very good
Speaker 3: in it.
Speaker 1: I must have. It must have been like who's the uh,
Speaker 1: who's the middle aged jew that we picked for this? Yeah? No, no.
Speaker 1: But then I got to do like a testimonial, which
Speaker 1: is actually cool. We went up to the suite and
Speaker 1: actually I got to answer questions on camerage is solo
Speaker 1: and that was great because I got to sort of
Speaker 1: spell right. But like just the observation of that stuff.
Speaker 1: What Todd is saying is absolutely right, where it's like
Speaker 1: we can only have an impact to a certain degree,
Speaker 1: but there's always a new generation. Like we can't possibly
Speaker 1: stem the tide as much as we try. It's like
Speaker 1: it's a noble cause, but you can't.
Speaker 2: And you can and you watch the people standing behind
Speaker 2: the roulette table and and and you're just wondering, oh,
Speaker 2: what are you doing? Well, this is you can't. This
Speaker 2: is you're just throwing your money away. This is like
Speaker 2: give me a dollar years back, ninety six cps. Here's
Speaker 2: give me a dollar, give me ninety six. I mean people,
Speaker 2: people just cannot grasp basic, basic ideas.
Speaker 3: I don't know there and that's and that's what the
Speaker 3: public that would trade Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis and
Speaker 3: not even get like a bunch of Oh wait, that
Speaker 3: was the Mavericks GM I can with them.
Speaker 1: Well, let me just ad I don't know the answer
Speaker 1: this question. I'm gona asked Rufus this for the first
Speaker 1: time because I know I have this in my life.
Speaker 1: I'm curious if you will or Todd does. But but
Speaker 1: if Rufus has this, then that's this is the ultimate
Speaker 1: mic drop. I have a person or maybe even two,
Speaker 1: but I'm thinking of one person in my life. They
Speaker 1: know what I do, right, They know I have a show.
Speaker 1: They know this is all I do all day long,
Speaker 1: is bet But I'm not what I couldn't care less
Speaker 1: right knows everything. You can't tell him different. He's got
Speaker 1: it all figured out. And I don't volunteer anything because
Speaker 1: I don't assume he wants to know. You know, at
Speaker 1: this point, I'm curious, Rufus, if you have If Rufus
Speaker 1: has somebody like this in his life, then then you
Speaker 1: know it's my sugar, do you.
Speaker 4: I mean, there's definitely people like that for sure. They
Speaker 4: know what I do, And yeah, of.
Speaker 1: Course, now imagine Rufus has a friend like that, like Eta,
Speaker 1: Rufus can't tell me shit. I mean, come on, it's ridiculous.
Speaker 4: People might be somebody else there or people percent of
Speaker 4: the time, but not this time.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just think, well, that's the other thing, right,
Speaker 1: because the rare opportunities where you do. Let's I remember
Speaker 1: having a friend come in town and then he had
Speaker 1: his buddies. Oh that's gil what he thinks about this
Speaker 1: one game, and of course it was wrong. They're like, oh,
Speaker 1: you don't know shit about anything, right exactly. Yeah.
Speaker 2: By the way, we're adding a third green to the
Speaker 2: roulette and some roulette things. I'm like, well, if just
Speaker 2: up there, why not just have thirty nine greens and
Speaker 2: one like number four or something like, and then that's
Speaker 2: the only one. It's like, what is going It's it's
Speaker 2: just it's it's hysterical.
Speaker 1: And it's not to end it on a serious note,
Speaker 1: but this is what rufs and I only got to
Speaker 1: like ninety seconds of the end of three segments on
Speaker 1: this yesterday, but it does concern if we have one
Speaker 1: moment of serious Like one of the most seriousness is
Speaker 1: which since gambling has been legalized, right, it does concern
Speaker 1: you that the wave is so great that problem gambling, right,
Speaker 1: is just going to only become more and more because
Speaker 1: everybody knows everything, and most of what you get is
Speaker 1: bad input from people, and it's just it's just how
Speaker 1: the cookie crumbles in this. So you can only try.
Speaker 1: I mean, we try, We try to do our little
Speaker 1: part in our corner of the world. But if Rufus
Speaker 1: has somebody who don't care about Ruver says that says
Speaker 1: it all to me, It's like, okay.
Speaker 4: But I don't think that's about problem gambling as much
Speaker 4: as just I mean, I think the problem gambling is
Speaker 4: more marketing and accessibility.
Speaker 1: Yes, I would, I would. I would say that that's
Speaker 1: most of it. I'm saying they're all kind of related.
Speaker 1: Maybe maybe I'm connecting to things.
Speaker 4: I think making dumb bets is what isn't being a
Speaker 4: problem gambler, It's just being a recreational petter.
Speaker 1: Well. I think the predatory nature of books trying to
Speaker 1: get rid of anybody who's successful, but actively actively trying
Speaker 1: to get those who are wildly unsuccessful. We have stories
Speaker 1: that Michael Lewis podcast touched on this. Yes, the guy
Speaker 1: writing in Oh my god, I am losing too much money.
Speaker 1: I need it. Oh no, no, no, no, you know,
Speaker 1: don't by the way, don't don't email writing. Don't put
Speaker 1: that in writing. I'll give you more promotions, I'll give
Speaker 1: you more free play, right, Like that's fucked.
Speaker 4: So you know, literally saying we'll have to close your
Speaker 4: account due to problem gambling if you put this in writing.
Speaker 4: So just call us next time.
Speaker 1: Except can you imagine? Can you imagine? It's crazy?
Speaker 2: But that's probably what goes on in game aiming. If
Speaker 2: you if you probably look behind the behind the curtain
Speaker 2: of the average casino, right, what goes on there for
Speaker 2: them to keep the I remember reading that book of
Speaker 2: that guy what was that guy's name who used to
Speaker 2: be on VSEN sometimes but he was like a host
Speaker 2: for the for the west Gate or something, and the
Speaker 2: stuff that they would do to keep the big players
Speaker 2: to continue to play. I can't remember exactly, but it's
Speaker 2: the same. You know, what is a casino really providing.
Speaker 2: It's a it's a it's a sham, really, I mean,
Speaker 2: especially in something that cannot be beat, right, what are
Speaker 2: they really providing you? Oh? Recreation? Oh, what's the recreation
Speaker 2: that I'm going to lose. It's like, it's kind of
Speaker 2: the whole thing's kind of fucked up. If you want
Speaker 2: to be completely fair about it, you know, what are
Speaker 2: they providing you nothing? You know, it's a shamment, right, entertainment?
Speaker 3: Okay?
Speaker 2: So is that really entertaining though? Like what you would
Speaker 2: never go to get? Okay? Well, then maybe I just
Speaker 2: don't get it.
Speaker 4: Look, Jeff, Jeff maloves playing craps and he always wants
Speaker 4: me to go play with him, and I'm always like, yeah,
Speaker 4: I just don't really care that much about it because
Speaker 4: I have to relearn the rules every time.
Speaker 1: It's too complicated, right, Todd, you love double stuffed oreos, So,
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, we all have our thing. I
Speaker 1: get it.
Speaker 2: Oh I don't. Personally, I don't love That's one thing
Speaker 2: that I don't like. I wish all the food was
Speaker 2: double stuffed oreos because then I.
Speaker 1: Be sent But yes, I'm sorry. I Losa's. You like
Speaker 1: Teresa's white white chocolate pretzel ones.
Speaker 2: Well you know what was crazy about that Reese's thing?
Speaker 2: I was obsessed with those. Now I won't even eat them.
Speaker 2: It's unbelievable how your mind has has a mind of
Speaker 2: its own and I couldn't stop eating those fucking Reese's pretzels,
Speaker 2: and now I look at them and I don't even
Speaker 2: want them. It's it's it's bizarre, world.
Speaker 1: Incredible, incredible, They're so good. All right, Well, I didn't
Speaker 1: see it going this way, but maybe that's the uh
Speaker 1: appropriate way to end it. I hope super Bowl fifty
Speaker 1: nine is a is a profitable experience for all another
Speaker 1: season that Todd Wisher is sixth on the megapod Todd
Speaker 1: about to set records. Thank you, Todd, I appreciate it.
Speaker 1: Very gratu And and Will Hill uh at the name
Speaker 1: of the podcast for Will should have been more check
Speaker 1: that out. And Rufus Peabody, who does this thing again?
Speaker 1: Massy Peabody Analytics unabated is where is? I don't know?
Speaker 1: Is that your primary gig?
Speaker 2: Now?
Speaker 1: I don't know what to say. And the Bet the
Speaker 1: Process podcast with Jeff mob which is great too with
Speaker 1: Michael Lewis and Mary gig has always been betting primary
Speaker 1: gig is bet. I'm sorry, but.
Speaker 4: We're recording that the Process this afternoon with with Judah
Speaker 4: fork Gang, gonna talk some super Bowl.
Speaker 1: You love Juda as a guest, right, you love Jesus.
Speaker 4: He's so good because he marries he marries the math
Speaker 4: and the football knowledge really really well, and he's really
Speaker 4: good with sort of the ash stuff and thinking about
Speaker 4: the narratives and how the game can play out and
Speaker 4: really constructing good s GPS from that.
Speaker 1: Who's your favorite guest of all time? Terrible? Michael Lewis,
Speaker 1: Michael Lewis, and that's then you, Gil, then you. By
Speaker 1: the way, I might have been Jeff Ma's least favorite.
Speaker 4: Everybody says that everybody thinks that they're his least favorite guest.
Speaker 4: That's kind of the magic of Jeff. He was Asian, right,
Speaker 4: maybe the anti magic.
Speaker 1: I don't know. I was not nearly heady enough for
Speaker 1: the Bet the Process are audience. I was just like,
Speaker 1: I think what we got down like a sports betting
Speaker 1: broadcast rabbit, which is kind of my strike. So I
Speaker 1: didn't think Jeff anyway. Bet the Process is where Rufus
Speaker 1: does his thing. Good luck to everyone, Good luck to you.
Speaker 1: We will do podcasts after this is just going to
Speaker 1: take a couple of week breaks before we get back
Speaker 1: to Indian Wells Tennis. We'll do of course, the NFL Draft,
Speaker 1: the Masters and all that on the beating, the book feed,
Speaker 1: so just that the megapot is it? Good luck with
Speaker 1: super Bowl fifty nine and all of you.
Speaker 2: Maybe the NCAA tournament will do with me and Willie
Speaker 2: pulling it out of our ass again.
Speaker 1: And the March Madness Pot of course, where will famously
Speaker 1: had Fau in the final four and Todd called the finals. Hey,
Speaker 1: that was amazing. Good luck with all your bets. Thanks
Speaker 1: for listening, goodbody,