1 00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:07,600 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg to Washington, d C, 2 00:00:07,840 --> 00:00:13,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve, on to San Francisco, Bloomberg 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:18,160 Speaker 1: to the Country Channel one ninety and around the globe 4 00:00:18,280 --> 00:00:23,000 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Radio plus Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. 5 00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:27,480 Speaker 1: Good morning on Wall Street. I Michael mc key along 6 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 1: with Tom Keane. Not starting off very well. A lot 7 00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:33,920 Speaker 1: of red on the screen today. We do have City 8 00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 1: Group reporting earnings at eight am this morning that we'll 9 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:40,920 Speaker 1: get some attention. Goldman Sachs topping the top of news 10 00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg today, embarking on its biggest cost cutting push 11 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 1: in years, has to try to weather it's slump in 12 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:51,320 Speaker 1: trading and deal making. Goldman reports its earnings on Tuesday, 13 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 1: is forecast to report a steep drop in expenses for 14 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 1: the quarter. Speaking of steep drops, Volkswagen's European first quarter 15 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:02,280 Speaker 1: market chair reached a five year or low. Autobuyers snubbing 16 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:05,840 Speaker 1: the German carmaker's efforts to resolve that emissions cheating scandal. 17 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:10,240 Speaker 1: Bat's global markets pricing. It's i p O nineteen dollars 18 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:12,600 Speaker 1: a year. That's the top end of the marketed range 19 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:14,960 Speaker 1: put the value on the company of one point eight 20 00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 1: billion dollars and some good news from Bombardier for a change, 21 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 1: Balbardier nearing an agreement to sell as many as seventy 22 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:25,040 Speaker 1: five C Series A jetliners to Delta Airlines. That according 23 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 1: to a person familiar with the talks. Now, let's check 24 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 1: out with Michael bar at the latest World of National headlines. Michael, Mike, 25 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:35,199 Speaker 1: thank you very much. Belgium's transport minister has resigned after 26 00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:39,600 Speaker 1: a secret European Union report detailing lapses and airport security 27 00:01:39,680 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 1: oversight was leaked in the wake of the deadly March 28 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:46,440 Speaker 1: twenty second bombings at Brussels airport and subway. The confidential 29 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 1: EU document from last year was made public by two 30 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 1: Belgian opposition parties. It says the oversight of security measures 31 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:58,760 Speaker 1: at Belgium's airports was flagged and cited serious deficiencies in 32 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 1: the way safety checks are managed. Boston is marking the 33 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 1: third anniversary of the deadly twenty marathon bombings with subdued remembrances. 34 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 1: A reth laying ceremony would take place this morning at 35 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:13,280 Speaker 1: the marathon finish line at two forty nine pm Eastern time. 36 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 1: A citywide moment of silence will mark the time when 37 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:19,480 Speaker 1: the first of two pressure cooker bombs detonated. It didn't 38 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: take long for Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton to clash 39 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 1: as they met last night for debate in Brooklyn. The 40 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:28,880 Speaker 1: candidates had pointed words for each other about the other's 41 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 1: judgment and record. Clinton and Sanders have been clashing accluding 42 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 1: to Clinton, Sanders has not been able to fully answer 43 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:39,000 Speaker 1: questions about how he's carried out his proposals on the 44 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 1: economy and foreign policy. Sanders criticized Clinton's votes in favor 45 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 1: of the Iraq War and some trade deals while she 46 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,520 Speaker 1: was a senator. Global News twenty four hours a day, 47 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:53,480 Speaker 1: powered by our twenty four hundred journalists. I'm Michael Barr, Mike, 48 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 1: thank if I got time now for the Bloomberg NBC 49 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 1: Sports Update with John Stessha Mike. The Islanders I haven't 50 00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 1: won a playoff series since three a decade after winning 51 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:06,239 Speaker 1: the fourth consecutive Stanley Cup. They've lost seven series in 52 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 1: a row. They're playing the Florida Panthers, who haven't won 53 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:11,480 Speaker 1: a series since nineties. Six Game one in Miami, three 54 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 1: times the Aisles scored to tie the game. They took 55 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 1: the lead in the third period. They won five to four. 56 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:19,440 Speaker 1: John Tavaris a goal to assist. They come right back 57 00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 1: tonight for a game two. Rangers play Games two at 58 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 1: Pittsburgh tomorrow afternoon. They're hopeful Henrik Lundquist can make a 59 00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:28,840 Speaker 1: one hundred and twelfth consecutive playoffs start in Goalie had 60 00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:30,919 Speaker 1: to leave after the first period of the game one 61 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 1: loss with an eye injury. Yankees managed just three hits 62 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 1: off Marcus Stroman lost in Toronto four to two. Yanks 63 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 1: come home with some puny batting averages. Brett Cartner is 64 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 1: hitting one seventy four, Chase Henley won fifty, and Alex 65 00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 1: Rodriguez is batting one twenty. They host Seattle tonight. Metsr 66 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 1: in Cleveland for the fourth time in five years. The 67 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 1: Giants open the season against the Cowboys. It will be 68 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 1: in Dallas. The Jets in week one nine eleven will 69 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 1: host Cincinnati. The season starts with the Super Bowl rematch 70 00:03:56,960 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 1: Carolina at Denver. The Lumber NBC Sports Update, I'm John Stage, 71 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 1: Thank you John. Interesting story today on the Bloomberg about 72 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 1: the weather going to be sixty seventy degrees in New York. 73 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:09,640 Speaker 1: It is going to snow, speaking of the Broncos in 74 00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:15,000 Speaker 1: Colorado this weekend. This is Bloomberg Surveillance on Bloomberg Radio. 75 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:22,479 Speaker 1: I'm Michael to get you along with Tom Kane on 76 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:26,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance. We're looking at a down start to the day. 77 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:29,600 Speaker 1: S and P futures down by four points right now, 78 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 1: two tenths of eight percent. Doubt emating futures are off 79 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:35,359 Speaker 1: by twenty four tenth. In Europe, the stock six is 80 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 1: two points lower. That's almost half a percent on that index. 81 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 1: Oil prices weighing on the markets. West Texas is down 82 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:47,880 Speaker 1: two point two percent, Brent crude five down two point 83 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 1: three percent, and Ran says it won't send its minister 84 00:04:51,560 --> 00:04:54,440 Speaker 1: oil minister to the big summit in Doha to try 85 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:57,040 Speaker 1: to come up with production caps. We'll see how that 86 00:04:57,120 --> 00:05:01,120 Speaker 1: turns out on Monday time. Now for the Bloomberg n 87 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:02,840 Speaker 1: j I T Stam Report, brought to you by New 88 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 1: Jersey Institute of Technology, investing more than a hundred and 89 00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:08,320 Speaker 1: ten million dollars a year and applied research to solve 90 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:11,760 Speaker 1: problems and improve life. Learn more at Stories of Innovation 91 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:15,520 Speaker 1: dot j I T dot DU. Here is gentle, Sorry, Michael, 92 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 1: Microsoft has suit the Justice Department to block authorities from 93 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 1: taking customers emails and other data stored by Microsoft without 94 00:05:23,520 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 1: ever having to let them know. There's an escalation of 95 00:05:26,320 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 1: a two year tussle with the government over privacy and 96 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 1: cloud computing. Well. Today, Apple is set to continue its 97 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: fight to keep the government out of another iPhone. This 98 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:37,720 Speaker 1: one sees from a drug dealer in a Brooklyn case, 99 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:40,440 Speaker 1: just weeks after the EPII had dropped its efforts to 100 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:42,920 Speaker 1: force Apple to let it break into when used by 101 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:46,000 Speaker 1: a terrorist who killed his wife and fourteen people last 102 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 1: year in San Bernardino, who with his wife killed fourteen 103 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:53,120 Speaker 1: people last year in San Bernardino, California. That earthquake in 104 00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:56,359 Speaker 1: southern Japan that killed nine people yesterday damaged buildings and 105 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 1: derail the bullet train also halted production at a soda 106 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 1: camera chip factory, key part of the global smartphone supply chain. 107 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:08,400 Speaker 1: The plant on the Southern Islands in Japan. It's still 108 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:11,120 Speaker 1: being inspected. The strength of the earthquake, as well as 109 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 1: persistent after shots are raising the risk it will take 110 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:18,720 Speaker 1: time to restore operations. That's according to an analyst at 111 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:22,640 Speaker 1: Zoo Hoo Securities, and that is this morning's Bloomberg and 112 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 1: g I t Stem Report. Michael, thank you very much, 113 00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:30,480 Speaker 1: John Tucker. Well, we're fifteen days into the second quarter 114 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:36,120 Speaker 1: UM fourteen and some hours, and as we note, stocks 115 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:38,839 Speaker 1: turned around in the first quarter tremendously. They've sort of 116 00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:42,680 Speaker 1: been up and down in April so far today they 117 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:47,279 Speaker 1: are down. What's the overall outlook is chief investment officer 118 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:52,200 Speaker 1: of del Tech, and he's with us now until the 119 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:56,039 Speaker 1: The Dell Tech outlook for the second quarter isn't all 120 00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 1: that bad, even though there's a lot of things, individual 121 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:05,440 Speaker 1: news stories that people are concerned about. That's a good point, Michael. 122 00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:08,880 Speaker 1: I mean, what we're saying right now is globally second 123 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 1: derivatives move markets, and there's two things that are working 124 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 1: for us. Number One, global growth momentum, growth in the 125 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 1: rate of growth. The second root is rising all of 126 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:21,000 Speaker 1: the PM new orders numbers across the world have been 127 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 1: improving many and now consistent with an economic expansion. Secondly, 128 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 1: global liquidity commissions are just the amount of money to 129 00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 1: fly that there is around the world has increased rapidly 130 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 1: as well, on the back of ECB banquet, Japan PBOC easing, 131 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:38,800 Speaker 1: and of course the Fed remaining on hold. So that 132 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:41,880 Speaker 1: combination of data that we're seeing from a global growth 133 00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 1: perspective and a global liquidity perspective is actually consistent with 134 00:07:45,840 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 1: higher markets as we look back through time, and indeed 135 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 1: that's our outlook for the future despite some of these 136 00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:54,720 Speaker 1: negative new news and flow stories that we're seeing. Well, 137 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 1: one thing that we haven't been able to break away from, 138 00:07:56,880 --> 00:07:59,560 Speaker 1: it looks like is a correlation between oil praises and 139 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:04,679 Speaker 1: equity prices. Oil lower again today, equity prices lower again today. 140 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:06,480 Speaker 1: Are we're going to be able to break that at 141 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 1: some point? Look, I hope is that you know this 142 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 1: combination of data is not only consistent with investment markets 143 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:15,880 Speaker 1: more generally moving higher, but also if it looks specifically, 144 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 1: and you spoke earlier about kind of specific news stories 145 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:20,600 Speaker 1: coming out, when we look at the oil story, it 146 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:23,800 Speaker 1: actually has turned around quite considerably since a few four 147 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:26,480 Speaker 1: last year. Now. We upgraded our view of energy in 148 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 1: the first quarter. With this second quarter outlook, we've upgraded 149 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:31,800 Speaker 1: our view of energy again, and that's truly on the 150 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 1: back of two things. Number One, global demand is increasing 151 00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:37,439 Speaker 1: in response to that improvement in global growth that I 152 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 1: spoke about earlier, but also global supply conditions are improving 153 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:44,520 Speaker 1: as well. There's been a huge reduction in US oil production. 154 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:48,200 Speaker 1: In fact, year on year, US ontore or production is 155 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:51,960 Speaker 1: actually negative in terms of negative growth, so the supply 156 00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 1: story stating was more favorable as well. So we believe 157 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:56,880 Speaker 1: actually markets moving high, but also oil prices are going 158 00:08:56,920 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 1: to move higher over the balance there that should end 159 00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 1: the year between forty to if you knows about we 160 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:03,000 Speaker 1: don't expect them to go little back into the twenties. 161 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:07,959 Speaker 1: As we saw in Q one. The oil industries earnings, 162 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:10,000 Speaker 1: which should start coming out in the next week or so, 163 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 1: our forecast to be at almost historic lows of the 164 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:17,320 Speaker 1: drop from last year. At this time, if prices are rising, 165 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 1: do you want to get out ahead of that and 166 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:23,520 Speaker 1: buy some of these oil companies. That's absolutely right. You know, 167 00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:26,680 Speaker 1: we are looking to accumulate energy companies over the next 168 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:28,880 Speaker 1: few weeks, and now we're looking for areas that waitness 169 00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 1: obviously has had a strong run over the past few weeks. 170 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:34,600 Speaker 1: We will be looking to increase exposures towards the energy sector. 171 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:38,720 Speaker 1: That will primarily actually be through equities exposures because to 172 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:41,200 Speaker 1: your point, and they've sold off quite heavily on the 173 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 1: back of these historic earnings of the week. But the 174 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:46,400 Speaker 1: outlook if all prices to rise, will look a lot 175 00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:48,280 Speaker 1: more favorable because of course they put to a lot 176 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:50,480 Speaker 1: of cost cuts over the task quarter as well, so 177 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 1: the operating leverage they'll get from higher prices will be 178 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 1: significant very quickly. Are you are we talking big majors 179 00:09:57,000 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 1: or what would you buy? We're sticking towards the lots 180 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:02,240 Speaker 1: in the grated oil companies, um, but that have a 181 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 1: yield that have helped you great cash blood. This isn't 182 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 1: the time when explorations then gets turned back onto the 183 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:11,599 Speaker 1: smalltiplies the run market the benefit at this point, Locklaise, 184 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:14,719 Speaker 1: the topics and maintenanceupplies in the old services that not 185 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:16,920 Speaker 1: going to benefit autus so very much towards the lodge 186 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:19,000 Speaker 1: end of the statum. All right, let's come back with 187 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 1: a total Deltics chief investment officer a relatively optimistic view 188 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:29,840 Speaker 1: of the markets going forward. Overall, investors aren't feeling optimistic 189 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:32,599 Speaker 1: on this Friday, even though the weather is supposed to 190 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 1: be nice here in New York for a change, as 191 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:38,560 Speaker 1: and P futures are down by four points two tents. 192 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:42,040 Speaker 1: I heard this morning. It's nice in London as well. 193 00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 1: If you're in London, you can let us know. But 194 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:47,199 Speaker 1: they were telling us the sun is shining. The stock 195 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:49,760 Speaker 1: six hundred down two points though half a percent, So 196 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 1: there's a correlation between nice weather. That's a good question. 197 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:57,480 Speaker 1: Is there a correlation? We'll find out. This is Bloomberg 198 00:10:57,559 --> 00:11:03,760 Speaker 1: Surveillance on Bloomberg Radio worldwide, and Bloomberg Surveillance is brought 199 00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 1: to you by your Tri State BMW centers. Visit them 200 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:08,720 Speaker 1: online at tri State BMW dot com. At BMW they 201 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:18,360 Speaker 1: make only one thing, the ultimate driving machine, Bloomboo Business 202 00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:21,360 Speaker 1: News twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot com, 203 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 1: the Radio Plus mobile app and on your radio. This 204 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 1: is a Bloomberg Business flash and I'm carrying moscown. This 205 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:30,720 Speaker 1: update is brought to you by Sector Spider e t F. 206 00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 1: So I buy a single stock when you can invest 207 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:35,800 Speaker 1: in the entire sector. Visits sector sp d r s 208 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 1: dot com are called six sector et f. Oil is 209 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:42,319 Speaker 1: falling for a third day before major suppliers meet in 210 00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 1: Doha to discuss an output freeze, boosting bonds and sending 211 00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 1: European stocks lower. Along with U stock index futures who 212 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:51,560 Speaker 1: checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. 213 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:54,319 Speaker 1: On Bloomberg sn P E Many futures down four and 214 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 1: a half points, now eveny futures down twenty eight and 215 00:11:57,120 --> 00:12:00,240 Speaker 1: NAS documenty futures down twelve. The decks in Germany's down 216 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:03,600 Speaker 1: six tenths per set tenure treasury up seven thirty seconds, 217 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:06,240 Speaker 1: the yield one point seven six percent yield on the 218 00:12:06,280 --> 00:12:09,319 Speaker 1: two year point seven five percent. Nim X screwed oil 219 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:11,679 Speaker 1: down two percent or eighty four cents to forty dollars 220 00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:14,560 Speaker 1: sixty six cents of barrel COMEXS. Gold is up half 221 00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:17,280 Speaker 1: percent or five dollars ninety cents at twelve thirty two 222 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:20,480 Speaker 1: ounce the euro and allar twelve eighty three The n 223 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:23,960 Speaker 1: one oh eight point eight four Regions Financials first quarter 224 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:26,679 Speaker 1: profit beating analysts estimates by one cent, and IT shares 225 00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:29,200 Speaker 1: are up one point eight percent this morning. And Mattel 226 00:12:29,280 --> 00:12:32,360 Speaker 1: Networks agreeing to buy Polycom for Cashion stock and a 227 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:35,200 Speaker 1: deal valued at about one point nine six billion dollars 228 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 1: to expand in the market for conferencing and video collaboration. 229 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 1: That's a Bloomberg business flash. Tom and Mike Karen Moscow, 230 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:44,520 Speaker 1: thank you very much. We're talking about it too late, 231 00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:49,120 Speaker 1: chief investment officer at Deltech, and we were we were 232 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 1: talking about oil prices before the break. Let's pick up 233 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:54,840 Speaker 1: with that idea and ask if oil prices you think 234 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:56,960 Speaker 1: have bottomed and are are going to go up in 235 00:12:56,960 --> 00:12:59,600 Speaker 1: the in the next couple of months. Is that true 236 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:03,200 Speaker 1: for come udities in general? We saw the Chinese report 237 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 1: economic growth today that matched their forecast. Is this whole 238 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:11,720 Speaker 1: idea that global demand is falling apart over with now 239 00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:15,800 Speaker 1: and we'll see some stabilization. So it's a good question 240 00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:18,240 Speaker 1: because you know, the outlooks are committed to the commodities 241 00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:20,880 Speaker 1: is not just shaped by demand conditions, it's also shaped 242 00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:23,199 Speaker 1: by us L or liquidity conditions. That is the amount 243 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 1: of USLO money supply globally. Why because the ufl A 244 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:29,560 Speaker 1: money supplies effectively the funding source for a lot of 245 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:33,240 Speaker 1: carriage traits around the world, including commodities. Now, we still 246 00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:36,480 Speaker 1: believe that we're in a secular bear market for commodities. 247 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:39,559 Speaker 1: We certainly believe that the last commodities boom is over 248 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:41,680 Speaker 1: and ended in two thousand and twelve, and the next 249 00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 1: commodities boom is a generation away. Within that, you can 250 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:48,360 Speaker 1: have cycles or mini cycles where you do get rallied, 251 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:50,880 Speaker 1: and that that those rallies are borne out of two things. 252 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:53,840 Speaker 1: One is in improving global demand depression and really we're 253 00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:57,200 Speaker 1: talking about Chinese demand because that that's the magic contributor 254 00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 1: to our commodities consumption that is improving over the next 255 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:03,400 Speaker 1: few months, so that will be supported as well as 256 00:14:03,400 --> 00:14:06,439 Speaker 1: that US all liquidity conditions are supportive because the FED 257 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:10,240 Speaker 1: has effectively gone on hold for at least the next quarter, 258 00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 1: so that that sets us up for a pretty favorable 259 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:15,560 Speaker 1: environment to carry fight out there. But as we moved 260 00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:17,760 Speaker 1: towards the back end of this year, we believe the 261 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:20,480 Speaker 1: FED is going to have to tighten and more aggressively 262 00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:23,040 Speaker 1: because they've been on hold right now and when the 263 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:26,800 Speaker 1: US all liquidity catch withdrawn from markets, that's going to 264 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 1: be very, very painful for all carry trade sensitive assets, 265 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:32,680 Speaker 1: including the commodity So that's a great debate. Maybe more 266 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 1: of a debate earlier this week and in the last week, 267 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:39,520 Speaker 1: is how strong can the euro go. We've seen an 268 00:14:39,520 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 1: impossibility of that to a few courageous calling for strong euro. 269 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:47,680 Speaker 1: I'm not going to say it's consensus now, but there's 270 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:50,200 Speaker 1: been a migration to one f one twenty. Where are 271 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:53,280 Speaker 1: you on that? Look, we think, you know, the Euro 272 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 1: in the near term candra up, but that's really you know, 273 00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:58,000 Speaker 1: we're looking at against the US dollar, where we think 274 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:00,200 Speaker 1: the uslar can experience one to two quar It is 275 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:02,760 Speaker 1: a weakness, but you know, we're secular balls from the 276 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 1: U S. Dollar on the back of not only policy, 277 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:08,480 Speaker 1: but also some changes within the U S. Economy in 278 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 1: terms of the US trade deficit not expanding as much, 279 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 1: which will actually reduce US dollars liquidity around the world. 280 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 1: So the fourth is around the euro US dollar are 281 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 1: more born by the US dollar when we look at 282 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 1: the Euro against other currencies. Look, we think European economic 283 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:26,920 Speaker 1: growth is moving from recovery to expansion. Monetary policy is 284 00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:28,640 Speaker 1: going to remain where it is for the next year. 285 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 1: So over the next year, look, we think that the 286 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 1: Euro can come down slightly. We're certainly not looking at 287 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:35,880 Speaker 1: it going to walks parity, but I would be very 288 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:39,040 Speaker 1: surprised to see it move up much stronger towards one twenty, 289 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:42,280 Speaker 1: just in this environment where the US is so strong. Well, 290 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 1: you suggested that Europe maybe okay, if the Euro doesn't 291 00:15:48,640 --> 00:15:54,080 Speaker 1: weaken significantly, can they get off off the mark here, 292 00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:58,920 Speaker 1: can the economy grow enough to really make earnings significant? 293 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:03,640 Speaker 1: Significant change in earnings makes things worth buying. Look, Europe 294 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:07,640 Speaker 1: can grow without without awaker Europe without awake of Euro. 295 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 1: But the real issue is what parts of the economy 296 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:13,360 Speaker 1: are going to grow, Because if we don't say awak 297 00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 1: of Euro, then you're really going to say German industrial 298 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:19,560 Speaker 1: production numbers not really experienced that much strength because I 299 00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:22,160 Speaker 1: do rely on the lower Euro to get a lot 300 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 1: of that strength for it. So it's going to be 301 00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:26,520 Speaker 1: more of a consumption lead recovery, more of a housing 302 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:29,800 Speaker 1: and asset price bed recovery, rather than a manufacturing lead 303 00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 1: recovery if we don't get awake of Euro too. I 304 00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:35,560 Speaker 1: look at the dynamics now, and of course we've done 305 00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:38,720 Speaker 1: a lot of international economics this week, and just having 306 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:42,320 Speaker 1: on Charles Duma as well as we mentioned a Ken 307 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:45,480 Speaker 1: Roga earlier this morning, it all comes back to the 308 00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:50,200 Speaker 1: real economy. As an investor, how critical is it that 309 00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 1: I have a recovery world economy or a U S 310 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:56,600 Speaker 1: economy are gonna just have all this other mumbo jumbo 311 00:16:56,760 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 1: support asset prices? Incredibly important to have a recovering, agree, 312 00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:07,000 Speaker 1: because you can't. You can only get per expansion for markets. 313 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 1: You can only get per expansion for so long, and 314 00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:13,160 Speaker 1: that per expansion is really driven by the discount rate declining, 315 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:15,359 Speaker 1: and the discount rate declining can only be driven by 316 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:19,160 Speaker 1: reference rates declining and spreads contracting. We've kind of reached 317 00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:21,480 Speaker 1: the end of that because reference rates are quite low, 318 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:24,399 Speaker 1: they're negative in many reasons across the world, and spreads 319 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:25,760 Speaker 1: have come all the way, and so we're at the 320 00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:28,440 Speaker 1: end of the peer expansion story. We need to start 321 00:17:28,480 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 1: to get earnings recovering, and that can only come through 322 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:34,439 Speaker 1: stronger economic growth at this real economy level, not an 323 00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 1: asset class level. Well, the different differentiate chief and going 324 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:42,119 Speaker 1: into the World Bank a MF meetings this weekend seems 325 00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:45,440 Speaker 1: to be that the US is doing what you say 326 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:51,160 Speaker 1: the rest of the world is not. Is that impression wrong? Look, 327 00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:53,439 Speaker 1: we we think the imus behind the curve on this 328 00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:56,320 Speaker 1: because as we look at these manufacturing surveys around the world, 329 00:17:56,320 --> 00:18:00,560 Speaker 1: in almost every region, we're saying peer might expand UH 330 00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 1: in terms of increase, and in almost every region when 331 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:07,200 Speaker 1: apping p M above fifty, which is typically associated with 332 00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:09,880 Speaker 1: the expansion, so UM to say that it's the US 333 00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:13,400 Speaker 1: letter recovery is true. To say that's the US only recovery, 334 00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:15,800 Speaker 1: we think it's false. There are other parts of the 335 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:17,680 Speaker 1: world that just starting to carry their weight as well. 336 00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 1: Where are you on this difference between European in US banks. 337 00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:25,840 Speaker 1: I mean, you're sort of removed from when I get that, 338 00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:29,760 Speaker 1: which I think is an advantage. You're not really wedded 339 00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:35,040 Speaker 1: to a Wall Street or a Frontfort viewer, a Brussels 340 00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:38,160 Speaker 1: view Can the European banks catch up or is there 341 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:41,280 Speaker 1: a day done well the issue that we started for 342 00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:43,800 Speaker 1: the European banks if they haven't yet had the clean out. 343 00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:45,880 Speaker 1: There's a great day leveraging that's been working its way 344 00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:48,760 Speaker 1: across the world that the US in two thousands and eights. 345 00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:51,679 Speaker 1: We know that European two thousand and twelve, and as 346 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:53,760 Speaker 1: we pointed out in two thousand and fifteen, it was 347 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 1: to hit emerging markets indate that occurred, and next it's 348 00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 1: actually going to hit commodity economy. The problem is that 349 00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:02,560 Speaker 1: European banks have very heavily exposed to this current phase 350 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:05,359 Speaker 1: of d leveraging. They've got past the European issues and 351 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:10,119 Speaker 1: non performing lines in commercial banks for Europe declining, but 352 00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:13,080 Speaker 1: they're exposed to emerging market d leveraging and that's where 353 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:15,600 Speaker 1: the real issues are with European banks, and that's the 354 00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:19,080 Speaker 1: big difference between European banks and US banks. Non Performing 355 00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:22,560 Speaker 1: loans is the single biggest factor to impact bank earnings. 356 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:25,520 Speaker 1: And Europe has got past the European problems, but not 357 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:27,920 Speaker 1: the emerging market problems, and that's where we steal face 358 00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:31,240 Speaker 1: issues with European banks. Um Like I would point out 359 00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:33,919 Speaker 1: the Deutsche Bank actually had a pretty good week. They 360 00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:37,040 Speaker 1: had a good early week off the JP Morgan enthusiasm. 361 00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:40,359 Speaker 1: They'll take where they can get. Exactly are you buying 362 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:44,879 Speaker 1: financials at all? So we are long U s regional 363 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:46,639 Speaker 1: banks and that's on the back of number one. Are 364 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:50,840 Speaker 1: very very favorable non performing line environment and humberforming lines 365 00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:53,240 Speaker 1: are very low, expected to remain low with the recovering 366 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:55,760 Speaker 1: economy as well as that top line growth in terms 367 00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:58,200 Speaker 1: of credit Earth is recovering as well. Were very bullish 368 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:01,119 Speaker 1: and US housing with bullish on the border economy. So 369 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:04,760 Speaker 1: regional banks within the US where we're exposed to those 370 00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:08,520 Speaker 1: who don't have energy exposure within their books. In terms 371 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:11,720 Speaker 1: of European banks, we were exposed last year and the 372 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,240 Speaker 1: early part of the year, we removed our exposure just 373 00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:17,280 Speaker 1: as these emerging market problems started building. And as you know, 374 00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:20,200 Speaker 1: we've been quite verish on emerging markets for some time, 375 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:22,440 Speaker 1: and so we'll be staying out of Europe at least 376 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:24,760 Speaker 1: for the near term until we see some dissipation in 377 00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:28,159 Speaker 1: those issues. So we tend to talk about, you know, 378 00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:31,400 Speaker 1: the straightforward investments on this show. But I'm just curious, 379 00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:34,800 Speaker 1: given you know, what what deltech does, if if there 380 00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:38,480 Speaker 1: are alternative investments out there that are attractive at this point, 381 00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 1: or do you not have to do that if if 382 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:44,000 Speaker 1: you can get what you're looking for in traditional assay classes. 383 00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 1: Look at the cell Tech managers money. We look across 384 00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:51,320 Speaker 1: all asset classes and that's both listed and unlisted. We 385 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 1: do see favorable opportunities in the unlisted market right now, 386 00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:57,439 Speaker 1: and that's really borne out of the idea that you 387 00:20:57,480 --> 00:21:00,240 Speaker 1: can really get a good yield in the unlisted because 388 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,359 Speaker 1: there's a lot of private companies out there who don't 389 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 1: still don't have access to debt market because of the 390 00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 1: financial crosses. That having quite healthy yield um and of 391 00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:11,920 Speaker 1: course that's quite attractive relative tents in a world where 392 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 1: the whole listed market has yield which a MOB or negative. 393 00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:17,320 Speaker 1: So we are we do look at the MR the investments. 394 00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:19,520 Speaker 1: We are looking at yielding on MR the investments right 395 00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:23,240 Speaker 1: now in that alternatives but too really is the chief 396 00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:26,240 Speaker 1: investment officer at Dell Tech. Thanks for joining us this 397 00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:31,560 Speaker 1: morning here on Blueberg Surveillance. Uh. He has an optimistic 398 00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:35,440 Speaker 1: view of where things are going and things oil prices 399 00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:39,520 Speaker 1: will be writing helping put a floor under equities. That's 400 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:44,159 Speaker 1: not happening today. West Texas is down two as is 401 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:48,320 Speaker 1: Brent crude, and that's weighing on stocks. Futures off by 402 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:50,639 Speaker 1: five points, S and P futures off by five points. 403 00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 1: The two tents drop in Europe, it's a two point 404 00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:57,520 Speaker 1: drop for the stock six hundred, that's half a percent. 405 00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:02,040 Speaker 1: As we get ready for the big Doha oil producers 406 00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:04,879 Speaker 1: meeting this weekend, will they come to some sort of agreements? 407 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:07,480 Speaker 1: Stay tuned Monday morning, we'll be talking all about it. 408 00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:09,960 Speaker 1: Coming up here on Bloomberg Surveillance, We're going to be 409 00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:14,920 Speaker 1: talking about City Group earnings. City Group is reporting in 410 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,400 Speaker 1: just a few moments. Alis and Williams will be here 411 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:20,840 Speaker 1: to help us break it all down. City shares right 412 00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:24,480 Speaker 1: now up three tenths of a percent, and anticipation perhaps 413 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:28,400 Speaker 1: better than forecast news we'll see here on bloomber