WEBVTT - Alaska: Front Line in the Global Trade War

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<v Speaker 1>When Donald Trump ran for president in sixteen, a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of attention focused on how falling trade barriers had caused

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<v Speaker 1>pain throughout the rust bell and other centers of manufacturing

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<v Speaker 1>in the United States. Now, with Trump's trade war spreading

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<v Speaker 1>more widely each month, the fallout is hitting many industries

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<v Speaker 1>in the US and around the world. On this week's episode,

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<v Speaker 1>we look at how Trump's tariffs on Chinese imports, along

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<v Speaker 1>with China's retaliation, are threatening America's great northern frontier of Alaska,

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<v Speaker 1>a state that happened to vote big for Trump and

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<v Speaker 1>Republicans in Welcome to Benchmark. I'm Scott Landman, an economics

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<v Speaker 1>editor with Bloomberg News in Washington. Joining me in our

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<v Speaker 1>d C studio is Reid Picker, who's interning the summer

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<v Speaker 1>as a reporter with our US Economy team. She recently

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<v Speaker 1>wrote about how Alaska's seafood industry is getting caught up

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<v Speaker 1>in the trade war. Read thanks for joining us on

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<v Speaker 1>the podcast. Glad to be here so read why did

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<v Speaker 1>you look into this topic? I started looking into this

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<v Speaker 1>topic originally because we had just received the list from

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<v Speaker 1>China of the retaliatory tariffs on the thirty four billion

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<v Speaker 1>dollars worth of Chinese goods that the US was putting

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<v Speaker 1>on their products. So when I was looking at this list,

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<v Speaker 1>the first thing that I noticed, well, when I was

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<v Speaker 1>reading the Google translated version, the first thing I noticed

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<v Speaker 1>was the amount of seafood on this list. And then

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<v Speaker 1>the next day, when I was on Twitter, I saw

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<v Speaker 1>a tweet from Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski on how the

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<v Speaker 1>tariffs could impact the Alaska seafood industry, and the story

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<v Speaker 1>was born. And when you were reporting it and looking

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<v Speaker 1>into this, what struck you or surprised you the most?

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<v Speaker 1>I think what surprised me the most was the sheer

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<v Speaker 1>size of the relationship between the Alaska seafood industry and China.

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<v Speaker 1>So close to a billion dollars worth of Alaskan seafood

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<v Speaker 1>goes to China each year, making up almost a third

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<v Speaker 1>of all of the seafood exports from Alaska. And that

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<v Speaker 1>was amazing, and it was a scale that I had

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<v Speaker 1>not anticipated. All Right, well, we're gonna find out more

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<v Speaker 1>about those details from two guests who are based in

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<v Speaker 1>Alaska and are highly knowledgeable about the state seafood industry

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<v Speaker 1>and its importance to the economy there. On the phone

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<v Speaker 1>with us from the state capital of Juno is Alexa Tonkovic.

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<v Speaker 1>She's the executive director of the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a partnership between the industry and the state. And

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<v Speaker 1>also on the line we have Ralph Townsend, an economics

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<v Speaker 1>professor at the University of Alaska, Anchorage and director of

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<v Speaker 1>the school's Institute of Social and Economic Research. Alexa and Ralph,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks for joining us on Benchmark. Thank you happy to

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<v Speaker 1>be here, very pleased to be here to talk about

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<v Speaker 1>this important topic. So first, Alexa, we just heard a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit about background on the seafood industry in Alaska

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<v Speaker 1>from read here. Can you tell us some more about

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<v Speaker 1>the size of Alaska's seafood industry, how much it employs,

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<v Speaker 1>how important it is to the state? Absolutely, um, the

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<v Speaker 1>Alaska seafood industry is really a vital pillar of the

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<v Speaker 1>state's economy. In for example, sixteen, we've produced five point

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<v Speaker 1>six billion pounds, an x vessel value of one point

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<v Speaker 1>seven billion, and a first wholesale value of four point

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<v Speaker 1>two billion. It directly employs more workers than any other

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<v Speaker 1>private sector industry in Alaska. Sixty thousand people directly employed

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<v Speaker 1>by the industry. Not counting multiplier effects, it's the third

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<v Speaker 1>largest basic sector job creator after oil and gas. In

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<v Speaker 1>the visitor industry and looking at national impacts, nationally a

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<v Speaker 1>hundred thousand full time equivalent jobs, five point to billion

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<v Speaker 1>and annual labor income and twelve point eight billion economic output.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's not only important for the state of Alaska,

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<v Speaker 1>but I would argue important for the country overall and alexa.

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<v Speaker 1>What are the main kinds of fish and seafood that

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<v Speaker 1>come from Alaska's waters. Well, certainly we're well known worldwide

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<v Speaker 1>for things like Alaska salmon, of which there are five

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<v Speaker 1>different species. Were also known for crab king crab certainly

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<v Speaker 1>gets a lot of publicity. Alaska also produces a ton

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<v Speaker 1>of whitefish. The largest fish by volume is Alaska pollock,

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<v Speaker 1>which you have probably had in a fish sandwich or

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<v Speaker 1>in fish sticks or fish tacos. We produce flatfish, We

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<v Speaker 1>have hall of it, we have black cod, sable fish,

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<v Speaker 1>multiple species of crab cod. It's really there's a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of variety. There's also a lot of more specialty products

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<v Speaker 1>like row scallops, s cucumber, gooey duck. The list kind

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<v Speaker 1>of goes on and on and Ralph, I know that

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<v Speaker 1>you've studied fisheries and seafood for a long long time.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you put into context Alaska seafood industry with other

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<v Speaker 1>parts of the or the United States or or the

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<v Speaker 1>rest of the world. Well, in terms of the United States,

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<v Speaker 1>Alaska is far and away the most seafood dependent economy

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<v Speaker 1>in the nation. Uh no state would come close to

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<v Speaker 1>the significance. And Alexa just outlined the size of the

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<v Speaker 1>fishing economy in Alaska, and it's it's simply in many

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<v Speaker 1>of the states, fishing is visible, it's something that people

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<v Speaker 1>know is there. But in Alaska it is a base

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<v Speaker 1>industry in the economy. So can you tell us about

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<v Speaker 1>how it's processed in other countries like China and then

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<v Speaker 1>sent back to the US or to other countries. Yeah, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>China is our largest trading partner and it's also a

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<v Speaker 1>major reprocessing sector. So a lot of the seafood that

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<v Speaker 1>goes from Alaska to China is say, headed, gutted, frozen,

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<v Speaker 1>and then is subject to further reprocessing in China, turned

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<v Speaker 1>into file AT's turned into a retail product, some kind

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<v Speaker 1>of value you added processing, and then it is sometimes

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<v Speaker 1>consumed in the China market, but it is often consumed

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<v Speaker 1>outside of China, so it's reprocessed in China and then

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<v Speaker 1>re exported either to Japan, to the EU, or back

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<v Speaker 1>to the US. And partly that's just because of the

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<v Speaker 1>processing capacity and the labor that China has um that

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<v Speaker 1>they can provide that many other countries cannot. So, Ralph,

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<v Speaker 1>is this a more recent phenomenon, something that's happened in

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<v Speaker 1>the last few years, or or has it been kind

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<v Speaker 1>of a few decades. How would you how would you

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<v Speaker 1>put that into perspective? The first thing I would know

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<v Speaker 1>it is at a very high level. It's interesting that

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<v Speaker 1>China is both the largest importer of fish from the

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<v Speaker 1>US and China is also the largest exporter of fish

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<v Speaker 1>to the US, and that reflects what Alexa was referring to,

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<v Speaker 1>this very large volume of fish that flows to China

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<v Speaker 1>for processing and then is returned all over the world,

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<v Speaker 1>but including the United States. I'm not really sure the

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<v Speaker 1>timing of this. This is something that certainly occurred over

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<v Speaker 1>the last two to three decades. It's not something that

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<v Speaker 1>happened overnight, but certainly it's not that is not something

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<v Speaker 1>that would have been the case in the seventies of

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<v Speaker 1>the eighties. I lived in China for a few years

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<v Speaker 1>and there's definitely a large demand for seafood there, and

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<v Speaker 1>uh I could see it myself and understand the relevance

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<v Speaker 1>of the industry. But we we've also just established that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we've talked about how the seafood industry is

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<v Speaker 1>very big for Alaska. It's it's you know, far bigger

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<v Speaker 1>than anywhere else in the United States. There's the reprocessing

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<v Speaker 1>that goes on. Chinese the biggest importer and exporter of

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<v Speaker 1>the seafood, as you mentioned. And now we have these tariffs,

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<v Speaker 1>like Reed was talking about, we get this you know,

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<v Speaker 1>big list in Chinese of all the products that are

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<v Speaker 1>going to be subject to tariffs, and there's a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of seafood on there. Senator Murkowski is tweeting about it.

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<v Speaker 1>And now just recently we've had some more threats of

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<v Speaker 1>tariffs from the Trump administration to put tariffs on incoming

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<v Speaker 1>fish from China. So what does this all mean for

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<v Speaker 1>the Alaska seafood industry. How is it going to affect things? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I would say that the first point is I don't

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<v Speaker 1>think we really know because exactly how these tariffs are

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<v Speaker 1>going to be implemented, both in China and in the

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<v Speaker 1>US is really not clear. I think to to it's

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<v Speaker 1>certainly not clear to me, and some people in the

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<v Speaker 1>industry I've talked with are still very unclear. And as

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<v Speaker 1>we indicated, probably we don't have a solid number, but

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<v Speaker 1>probably uh that fish that's coming from Alaska, probably eight

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<v Speaker 1>plus percent is going to be processed and re exported.

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<v Speaker 1>Right now, China has the equivalent of free trade zones.

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<v Speaker 1>Much of this fish flows in tariff free as long

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<v Speaker 1>as then re exported, and I don't think the details

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<v Speaker 1>of exactly how that arrangement is going to be affected

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<v Speaker 1>by the call for a fiftcent tariff on US fish.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know if Alexa has a clear if she

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<v Speaker 1>has heard people in the industry that have a clear

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<v Speaker 1>sense of it. But the people I've talked to are

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<v Speaker 1>very much we don't really know how this is going

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<v Speaker 1>to affect us yet. I think that's true. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>certainly there are some impacts that we can imagine, we

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<v Speaker 1>don't necessarily know the the scope and size of it. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>I would also just say that you know, there's we're

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<v Speaker 1>now talking about two different sets of tariffs, and the

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<v Speaker 1>tariffs will hit different segments of the industry. So when

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<v Speaker 1>we're talking about the tariffs that China has placed on

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<v Speaker 1>top of US seafood going into the market, that's for

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<v Speaker 1>domestic consumption. So that's going to hit companies that are

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<v Speaker 1>really targeting the growing demand in China for imported seafood,

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<v Speaker 1>which is tremendous, and that's going to impact the good

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<v Speaker 1>work that companies have done and the good work that

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<v Speaker 1>as ME has done over a number of years to

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<v Speaker 1>develop a demand for Alaska seafood in China. So that's

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<v Speaker 1>one piece of it. The second piece, then, is the

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<v Speaker 1>proposed ten percent tariffs um the U s TR is

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<v Speaker 1>proposing to place on goods coming back into the US

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<v Speaker 1>from China, and that will really hit the reprocessing sector

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<v Speaker 1>that we've talked about and would would basically be adding

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<v Speaker 1>a tariff on US seafood coming back to US consumers

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<v Speaker 1>from China. So ALEXA, with the tariffs, Alaska seafood exports

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<v Speaker 1>have now gotten more expensive to one of its biggest buyers.

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<v Speaker 1>What does that mean for Alaskan fisheries and fishermen and

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<v Speaker 1>the people who deal with this every day. Well, I think,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I think the statement that it's sort of

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<v Speaker 1>too soon to say how it would hit fishermen and processors,

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<v Speaker 1>is accurate. Um, Certainly it's causing a lot of confusion.

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<v Speaker 1>The tariffs are already causing headaches, some canceled orders, um,

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<v Speaker 1>some companies rerouting products. You know, longer term, it's hard

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<v Speaker 1>to say. Seafood pricing is so global and there's so

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<v Speaker 1>many factors that impact it that it's it's really hard

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<v Speaker 1>to say from point A to B it will increase

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<v Speaker 1>pricing by this much. Um. Though certainly it could have

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<v Speaker 1>an impact on pricing. You know, it will likely have

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<v Speaker 1>an impact on where companies are sending their products and

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<v Speaker 1>whether or not that trickles down to the fisherman. It

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<v Speaker 1>it's really too soon to say at this point. But

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<v Speaker 1>you know, certainly, in the heart of our salmon season

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<v Speaker 1>in Alaska, having uncertainty is is not what anyone wants

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<v Speaker 1>to hear. Ralph, I'm curious your thoughts on this. Have

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<v Speaker 1>you ever seen any kind of trade war involving seafood

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<v Speaker 1>in all your years studying the industry, And you also

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<v Speaker 1>mentioned you were attending a conference on global fisheries. Is

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<v Speaker 1>this a hot topic right now? Well, two things, Scott Scott.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm only sixty seven years old, and I my entire

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<v Speaker 1>life has been spent in the era in which we

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<v Speaker 1>are lowering tariffs around the world. So this is a

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<v Speaker 1>first in the lifetime for me, and I suspected is

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<v Speaker 1>for most people who are living today. You have to

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<v Speaker 1>go back almost a hundred years to see the kind

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<v Speaker 1>of tariff change that this represents. In terms of the

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<v Speaker 1>discussion at the meetings I'm currently at, certainly China was discussed,

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<v Speaker 1>but it was really in this bigger context of look,

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<v Speaker 1>China is not only a major market for fish because

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<v Speaker 1>of its growing population and growing middle class, but also

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<v Speaker 1>its role in this as the world's processor of fish

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<v Speaker 1>and the importance that it has in the value chain.

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<v Speaker 1>And it was really that long term discussion of China's

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<v Speaker 1>crucial role to the future of seafood around the world,

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<v Speaker 1>rather than the short on impact, which again because of

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<v Speaker 1>as Alexa said, people just don't know exactly how that's

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<v Speaker 1>going to play out. So in light of the recent tariffs,

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<v Speaker 1>how feasible would it be for companies to move processing

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<v Speaker 1>centers out of the tariff's line of fire. Well, certainly

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of companies are looking at this and are

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<v Speaker 1>sort of weighing different options. You know, there are other

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<v Speaker 1>countries that do processing. Certainly there's some capacity in the US.

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<v Speaker 1>Countries like Vietnam and Thailand are are pretty significant reprocessing

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<v Speaker 1>centers for seafood. But realistically, there are not too many

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<v Speaker 1>options to replace the capacity in China um for our

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<v Speaker 1>products to be cut and repacked for consumers. We don't

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<v Speaker 1>have that capacity or that labor force in Alaska. And

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<v Speaker 1>then you know, looking at Vietnam and Thailand in places

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<v Speaker 1>like that, shipping costs to those countries are higher than

0:13:54.640 --> 0:13:58.240
<v Speaker 1>to China. And while there is a reprocessing sector, it's

0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:00.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, it's been a little slow to grow and

0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:03.920
<v Speaker 1>at this point cannot replace the volume that China does.

0:14:05.120 --> 0:14:11.079
<v Speaker 1>And Ralph taking a broader perspective on Alaska's economy. Alaska's

0:14:11.080 --> 0:14:16.040
<v Speaker 1>of course also known for the energy industry. And if

0:14:16.080 --> 0:14:18.839
<v Speaker 1>this trade war widens, we we've had the President talking

0:14:18.880 --> 0:14:23.200
<v Speaker 1>about how he's ready to uh start putting tariffs on

0:14:23.240 --> 0:14:26.040
<v Speaker 1>all of the Chinese imports coming to America. I'm sure

0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:30.240
<v Speaker 1>China would easily ratchet up too. Of American exports go

0:14:30.400 --> 0:14:34.760
<v Speaker 1>to China. Does Alaska's economy stands take an even bigger

0:14:34.840 --> 0:14:38.560
<v Speaker 1>hit if these tariffs start going on onto oil at

0:14:38.600 --> 0:14:41.720
<v Speaker 1>gas Scott, would you mind if I back up and

0:14:41.760 --> 0:14:44.600
<v Speaker 1>make a comment on the previous question about the ability

0:14:44.640 --> 0:14:48.080
<v Speaker 1>to shift, because I think I think the point is

0:14:48.640 --> 0:14:53.000
<v Speaker 1>if it became twenty or more expensive to process fish

0:14:53.160 --> 0:14:58.400
<v Speaker 1>in China, over time, people would find alternatives, again expanding

0:14:58.440 --> 0:15:02.600
<v Speaker 1>places like Thailand and Vietnam. But the bigger picture is

0:15:03.240 --> 0:15:06.960
<v Speaker 1>China knows that China in the US are in the

0:15:07.040 --> 0:15:11.160
<v Speaker 1>stage of of a trade war potentially where they're saying

0:15:11.280 --> 0:15:16.480
<v Speaker 1>I'm willing to incur very big losses myself to retaliate,

0:15:17.000 --> 0:15:20.720
<v Speaker 1>and you know that's not really the long run response,

0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:23.480
<v Speaker 1>and the long run China is going to say what's

0:15:23.480 --> 0:15:26.200
<v Speaker 1>in our economic long run interest, and it is not

0:15:26.840 --> 0:15:31.120
<v Speaker 1>to impose a tariff on Alaska pollock and Alaskan salmon

0:15:31.480 --> 0:15:35.720
<v Speaker 1>so that that fish goes to Thailand and Vietnam for processing.

0:15:35.800 --> 0:15:39.040
<v Speaker 1>So I think this is very much like the rest

0:15:39.080 --> 0:15:42.120
<v Speaker 1>of the trade discussions we're having. That is, how much

0:15:42.120 --> 0:15:45.680
<v Speaker 1>of what's going on is posturing and what really happens

0:15:46.040 --> 0:15:49.080
<v Speaker 1>in six months or a year is really unclear. And

0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:51.280
<v Speaker 1>I actually from talking to people in the industry, I

0:15:51.320 --> 0:15:53.880
<v Speaker 1>think there's an appreciation of that as well. And what

0:15:53.960 --> 0:15:57.360
<v Speaker 1>about the bigger threat to Alaska's economy if you get

0:15:57.720 --> 0:16:01.240
<v Speaker 1>oil and gas caught up in the trade war too. Well,

0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:04.560
<v Speaker 1>there's two aspects. Oil prices of course a determine in

0:16:04.640 --> 0:16:07.640
<v Speaker 1>a world market. It's a world commodity, and it's really

0:16:08.240 --> 0:16:11.920
<v Speaker 1>very difficult to one country to impose attacks on a

0:16:11.960 --> 0:16:15.920
<v Speaker 1>single country's oil exports because you'll simply shift oil markets

0:16:15.920 --> 0:16:19.000
<v Speaker 1>around the world. There could be an issue in Alaska

0:16:19.160 --> 0:16:23.920
<v Speaker 1>because Alaska is trying to build a liquefied national natural

0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:28.520
<v Speaker 1>gas pipeline from the North Slope to a port in

0:16:28.560 --> 0:16:32.640
<v Speaker 1>southern Alaska, and at present a primary partner in that

0:16:32.800 --> 0:16:37.760
<v Speaker 1>is sinopek Uh, the Chinese energy company. And I'm sure

0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:43.920
<v Speaker 1>that this concern that ratcheting up of tariffs on natural

0:16:43.960 --> 0:16:48.960
<v Speaker 1>gas in particular from Alaska would severely impact economics of

0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:51.920
<v Speaker 1>that project. All right, Well, this has been a really

0:16:51.960 --> 0:16:56.600
<v Speaker 1>interesting discussion. Thank you for enlightening us about the seafood

0:16:56.600 --> 0:17:00.280
<v Speaker 1>industry in Alaska. Alexa Tonkovic of the Alaska See Food

0:17:00.280 --> 0:17:04.720
<v Speaker 1>Marketing Institute and Ralph Townsend of the University of Alaska, Anchorage,

0:17:04.800 --> 0:17:07.439
<v Speaker 1>thanks for being with us on Benchmark. Thank you for

0:17:07.520 --> 0:17:14.520
<v Speaker 1>covering this Thanks very much for talking with us. Benchmark

0:17:14.600 --> 0:17:16.840
<v Speaker 1>will be back next week. Until then, you can find

0:17:16.880 --> 0:17:20.120
<v Speaker 1>us on the Bloomberg terminal, Bloomberg dot com, our Bloomberg app,

0:17:20.200 --> 0:17:24.080
<v Speaker 1>as well as podcast destinations such as Apple Podcasts, Spotify,

0:17:24.280 --> 0:17:26.720
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0:17:26.720 --> 0:17:29.000
<v Speaker 1>the time to rate and review the show so more

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<v Speaker 1>listeners can find us, and you can find us on Twitter,

0:17:32.280 --> 0:17:36.560
<v Speaker 1>follow me at scott landman Feed, You are at at

0:17:36.720 --> 0:17:40.840
<v Speaker 1>R E A D E P. And Alex's Alaska Seafood

0:17:40.840 --> 0:17:45.720
<v Speaker 1>Marketing Institute is at Alaska Underscore Seat Food. Benchmark is

0:17:45.760 --> 0:17:48.800
<v Speaker 1>produced by tofor Ford. HEAs the head of Bloomberg Podcast

0:17:48.960 --> 0:17:52.240
<v Speaker 1>is Francesca Levy. Thanks for listening, See you next time.