1
00:00:02,040 --> 00:00:05,680
Speaker 1: When Donald Trump ran for president in sixteen, a lot

2
00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:09,040
Speaker 1: of attention focused on how falling trade barriers had caused

3
00:00:09,160 --> 00:00:12,520
Speaker 1: pain throughout the rust bell and other centers of manufacturing

4
00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:16,439
Speaker 1: in the United States. Now, with Trump's trade war spreading

5
00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:20,119
Speaker 1: more widely each month, the fallout is hitting many industries

6
00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:23,800
Speaker 1: in the US and around the world. On this week's episode,

7
00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:27,360
Speaker 1: we look at how Trump's tariffs on Chinese imports, along

8
00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:32,680
Speaker 1: with China's retaliation, are threatening America's great northern frontier of Alaska,

9
00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:35,280
Speaker 1: a state that happened to vote big for Trump and

10
00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:49,840
Speaker 1: Republicans in Welcome to Benchmark. I'm Scott Landman, an economics

11
00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:52,960
Speaker 1: editor with Bloomberg News in Washington. Joining me in our

12
00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:56,120
Speaker 1: d C studio is Reid Picker, who's interning the summer

13
00:00:56,160 --> 00:00:59,360
Speaker 1: as a reporter with our US Economy team. She recently

14
00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:03,280
Speaker 1: wrote about how Alaska's seafood industry is getting caught up

15
00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:06,080
Speaker 1: in the trade war. Read thanks for joining us on

16
00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:09,360
Speaker 1: the podcast. Glad to be here so read why did

17
00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:12,000
Speaker 1: you look into this topic? I started looking into this

18
00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:15,600
Speaker 1: topic originally because we had just received the list from

19
00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:19,600
Speaker 1: China of the retaliatory tariffs on the thirty four billion

20
00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:23,040
Speaker 1: dollars worth of Chinese goods that the US was putting

21
00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:25,840
Speaker 1: on their products. So when I was looking at this list,

22
00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:28,560
Speaker 1: the first thing that I noticed, well, when I was

23
00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:31,480
Speaker 1: reading the Google translated version, the first thing I noticed

24
00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:34,240
Speaker 1: was the amount of seafood on this list. And then

25
00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:36,720
Speaker 1: the next day, when I was on Twitter, I saw

26
00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:40,840
Speaker 1: a tweet from Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski on how the

27
00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:44,560
Speaker 1: tariffs could impact the Alaska seafood industry, and the story

28
00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:48,880
Speaker 1: was born. And when you were reporting it and looking

29
00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:51,160
Speaker 1: into this, what struck you or surprised you the most?

30
00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:54,240
Speaker 1: I think what surprised me the most was the sheer

31
00:01:54,440 --> 00:02:00,600
Speaker 1: size of the relationship between the Alaska seafood industry and China.

32
00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:04,840
Speaker 1: So close to a billion dollars worth of Alaskan seafood

33
00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:08,360
Speaker 1: goes to China each year, making up almost a third

34
00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:12,640
Speaker 1: of all of the seafood exports from Alaska. And that

35
00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:15,960
Speaker 1: was amazing, and it was a scale that I had

36
00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:19,160
Speaker 1: not anticipated. All Right, well, we're gonna find out more

37
00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:23,080
Speaker 1: about those details from two guests who are based in

38
00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:27,120
Speaker 1: Alaska and are highly knowledgeable about the state seafood industry

39
00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:30,040
Speaker 1: and its importance to the economy there. On the phone

40
00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:33,519
Speaker 1: with us from the state capital of Juno is Alexa Tonkovic.

41
00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:37,600
Speaker 1: She's the executive director of the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute.

42
00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:41,200
Speaker 1: It's a partnership between the industry and the state. And

43
00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:45,040
Speaker 1: also on the line we have Ralph Townsend, an economics

44
00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:48,800
Speaker 1: professor at the University of Alaska, Anchorage and director of

45
00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:53,360
Speaker 1: the school's Institute of Social and Economic Research. Alexa and Ralph,

46
00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:56,000
Speaker 1: thanks for joining us on Benchmark. Thank you happy to

47
00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:58,480
Speaker 1: be here, very pleased to be here to talk about

48
00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:01,519
Speaker 1: this important topic. So first, Alexa, we just heard a

49
00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:04,880
Speaker 1: little bit about background on the seafood industry in Alaska

50
00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:08,640
Speaker 1: from read here. Can you tell us some more about

51
00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:12,639
Speaker 1: the size of Alaska's seafood industry, how much it employs,

52
00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:16,080
Speaker 1: how important it is to the state? Absolutely, um, the

53
00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:19,000
Speaker 1: Alaska seafood industry is really a vital pillar of the

54
00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:22,960
Speaker 1: state's economy. In for example, sixteen, we've produced five point

55
00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:26,440
Speaker 1: six billion pounds, an x vessel value of one point

56
00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:29,760
Speaker 1: seven billion, and a first wholesale value of four point

57
00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:33,160
Speaker 1: two billion. It directly employs more workers than any other

58
00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:38,200
Speaker 1: private sector industry in Alaska. Sixty thousand people directly employed

59
00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:42,200
Speaker 1: by the industry. Not counting multiplier effects, it's the third

60
00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:46,480
Speaker 1: largest basic sector job creator after oil and gas. In

61
00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:51,000
Speaker 1: the visitor industry and looking at national impacts, nationally a

62
00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:55,560
Speaker 1: hundred thousand full time equivalent jobs, five point to billion

63
00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:59,720
Speaker 1: and annual labor income and twelve point eight billion economic output.

64
00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,280
Speaker 1: So it's not only important for the state of Alaska,

65
00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:06,080
Speaker 1: but I would argue important for the country overall and alexa.

66
00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:09,600
Speaker 1: What are the main kinds of fish and seafood that

67
00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:14,480
Speaker 1: come from Alaska's waters. Well, certainly we're well known worldwide

68
00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:17,240
Speaker 1: for things like Alaska salmon, of which there are five

69
00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:21,680
Speaker 1: different species. Were also known for crab king crab certainly

70
00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:24,960
Speaker 1: gets a lot of publicity. Alaska also produces a ton

71
00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:28,200
Speaker 1: of whitefish. The largest fish by volume is Alaska pollock,

72
00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:31,280
Speaker 1: which you have probably had in a fish sandwich or

73
00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:35,039
Speaker 1: in fish sticks or fish tacos. We produce flatfish, We

74
00:04:35,080 --> 00:04:37,400
Speaker 1: have hall of it, we have black cod, sable fish,

75
00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:42,200
Speaker 1: multiple species of crab cod. It's really there's a lot

76
00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:45,000
Speaker 1: of variety. There's also a lot of more specialty products

77
00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:48,960
Speaker 1: like row scallops, s cucumber, gooey duck. The list kind

78
00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:51,359
Speaker 1: of goes on and on and Ralph, I know that

79
00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:55,400
Speaker 1: you've studied fisheries and seafood for a long long time.

80
00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:59,360
Speaker 1: Can you put into context Alaska seafood industry with other

81
00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:01,320
Speaker 1: parts of the or the United States or or the

82
00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:04,359
Speaker 1: rest of the world. Well, in terms of the United States,

83
00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:09,120
Speaker 1: Alaska is far and away the most seafood dependent economy

84
00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:12,800
Speaker 1: in the nation. Uh no state would come close to

85
00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:16,480
Speaker 1: the significance. And Alexa just outlined the size of the

86
00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:21,800
Speaker 1: fishing economy in Alaska, and it's it's simply in many

87
00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:25,480
Speaker 1: of the states, fishing is visible, it's something that people

88
00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:30,400
Speaker 1: know is there. But in Alaska it is a base

89
00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:34,640
Speaker 1: industry in the economy. So can you tell us about

90
00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:37,640
Speaker 1: how it's processed in other countries like China and then

91
00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:41,680
Speaker 1: sent back to the US or to other countries. Yeah, Well,

92
00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:44,520
Speaker 1: China is our largest trading partner and it's also a

93
00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:48,039
Speaker 1: major reprocessing sector. So a lot of the seafood that

94
00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:52,080
Speaker 1: goes from Alaska to China is say, headed, gutted, frozen,

95
00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:56,120
Speaker 1: and then is subject to further reprocessing in China, turned

96
00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:59,600
Speaker 1: into file AT's turned into a retail product, some kind

97
00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:03,320
Speaker 1: of value you added processing, and then it is sometimes

98
00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:06,360
Speaker 1: consumed in the China market, but it is often consumed

99
00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:09,760
Speaker 1: outside of China, so it's reprocessed in China and then

100
00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:13,640
Speaker 1: re exported either to Japan, to the EU, or back

101
00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:17,040
Speaker 1: to the US. And partly that's just because of the

102
00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:21,839
Speaker 1: processing capacity and the labor that China has um that

103
00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:26,400
Speaker 1: they can provide that many other countries cannot. So, Ralph,

104
00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:29,320
Speaker 1: is this a more recent phenomenon, something that's happened in

105
00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:32,400
Speaker 1: the last few years, or or has it been kind

106
00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:34,440
Speaker 1: of a few decades. How would you how would you

107
00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:37,680
Speaker 1: put that into perspective? The first thing I would know

108
00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:40,640
Speaker 1: it is at a very high level. It's interesting that

109
00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:46,640
Speaker 1: China is both the largest importer of fish from the

110
00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:50,839
Speaker 1: US and China is also the largest exporter of fish

111
00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:55,120
Speaker 1: to the US, and that reflects what Alexa was referring to,

112
00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:59,799
Speaker 1: this very large volume of fish that flows to China

113
00:06:59,839 --> 00:07:03,160
Speaker 1: for processing and then is returned all over the world,

114
00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:07,120
Speaker 1: but including the United States. I'm not really sure the

115
00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:10,000
Speaker 1: timing of this. This is something that certainly occurred over

116
00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:12,920
Speaker 1: the last two to three decades. It's not something that

117
00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:16,559
Speaker 1: happened overnight, but certainly it's not that is not something

118
00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:18,120
Speaker 1: that would have been the case in the seventies of

119
00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:21,840
Speaker 1: the eighties. I lived in China for a few years

120
00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:25,800
Speaker 1: and there's definitely a large demand for seafood there, and

121
00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:30,560
Speaker 1: uh I could see it myself and understand the relevance

122
00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,960
Speaker 1: of the industry. But we we've also just established that,

123
00:07:34,360 --> 00:07:36,640
Speaker 1: you know, we've talked about how the seafood industry is

124
00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:40,320
Speaker 1: very big for Alaska. It's it's you know, far bigger

125
00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:43,520
Speaker 1: than anywhere else in the United States. There's the reprocessing

126
00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:46,960
Speaker 1: that goes on. Chinese the biggest importer and exporter of

127
00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:50,760
Speaker 1: the seafood, as you mentioned. And now we have these tariffs,

128
00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:53,040
Speaker 1: like Reed was talking about, we get this you know,

129
00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:55,680
Speaker 1: big list in Chinese of all the products that are

130
00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:58,640
Speaker 1: going to be subject to tariffs, and there's a lot

131
00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:02,160
Speaker 1: of seafood on there. Senator Murkowski is tweeting about it.

132
00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:05,920
Speaker 1: And now just recently we've had some more threats of

133
00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:09,840
Speaker 1: tariffs from the Trump administration to put tariffs on incoming

134
00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:15,040
Speaker 1: fish from China. So what does this all mean for

135
00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:20,920
Speaker 1: the Alaska seafood industry. How is it going to affect things? Well,

136
00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:23,960
Speaker 1: I would say that the first point is I don't

137
00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:28,520
Speaker 1: think we really know because exactly how these tariffs are

138
00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:31,400
Speaker 1: going to be implemented, both in China and in the

139
00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:35,400
Speaker 1: US is really not clear. I think to to it's

140
00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:37,160
Speaker 1: certainly not clear to me, and some people in the

141
00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:40,720
Speaker 1: industry I've talked with are still very unclear. And as

142
00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:44,160
Speaker 1: we indicated, probably we don't have a solid number, but

143
00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:49,120
Speaker 1: probably uh that fish that's coming from Alaska, probably eight

144
00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:52,920
Speaker 1: plus percent is going to be processed and re exported.

145
00:08:53,600 --> 00:08:57,240
Speaker 1: Right now, China has the equivalent of free trade zones.

146
00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:00,840
Speaker 1: Much of this fish flows in tariff free as long

147
00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:04,559
Speaker 1: as then re exported, and I don't think the details

148
00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:09,040
Speaker 1: of exactly how that arrangement is going to be affected

149
00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:13,400
Speaker 1: by the call for a fiftcent tariff on US fish.

150
00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:15,360
Speaker 1: I don't know if Alexa has a clear if she

151
00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:17,680
Speaker 1: has heard people in the industry that have a clear

152
00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:19,720
Speaker 1: sense of it. But the people I've talked to are

153
00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:22,439
Speaker 1: very much we don't really know how this is going

154
00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:25,640
Speaker 1: to affect us yet. I think that's true. I mean,

155
00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:29,200
Speaker 1: certainly there are some impacts that we can imagine, we

156
00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:33,079
Speaker 1: don't necessarily know the the scope and size of it. Um.

157
00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:35,360
Speaker 1: I would also just say that you know, there's we're

158
00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:38,400
Speaker 1: now talking about two different sets of tariffs, and the

159
00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:42,280
Speaker 1: tariffs will hit different segments of the industry. So when

160
00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:46,280
Speaker 1: we're talking about the tariffs that China has placed on

161
00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:49,760
Speaker 1: top of US seafood going into the market, that's for

162
00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:53,240
Speaker 1: domestic consumption. So that's going to hit companies that are

163
00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:58,600
Speaker 1: really targeting the growing demand in China for imported seafood,

164
00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:02,560
Speaker 1: which is tremendous, and that's going to impact the good

165
00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:05,000
Speaker 1: work that companies have done and the good work that

166
00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:07,600
Speaker 1: as ME has done over a number of years to

167
00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:11,600
Speaker 1: develop a demand for Alaska seafood in China. So that's

168
00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:14,200
Speaker 1: one piece of it. The second piece, then, is the

169
00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:17,920
Speaker 1: proposed ten percent tariffs um the U s TR is

170
00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:21,600
Speaker 1: proposing to place on goods coming back into the US

171
00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:25,120
Speaker 1: from China, and that will really hit the reprocessing sector

172
00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:28,280
Speaker 1: that we've talked about and would would basically be adding

173
00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:32,400
Speaker 1: a tariff on US seafood coming back to US consumers

174
00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:38,120
Speaker 1: from China. So ALEXA, with the tariffs, Alaska seafood exports

175
00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:41,720
Speaker 1: have now gotten more expensive to one of its biggest buyers.

176
00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:46,559
Speaker 1: What does that mean for Alaskan fisheries and fishermen and

177
00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:50,000
Speaker 1: the people who deal with this every day. Well, I think,

178
00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:52,640
Speaker 1: you know, I think the statement that it's sort of

179
00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:55,839
Speaker 1: too soon to say how it would hit fishermen and processors,

180
00:10:55,880 --> 00:10:59,280
Speaker 1: is accurate. Um, Certainly it's causing a lot of confusion.

181
00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:04,040
Speaker 1: The tariffs are already causing headaches, some canceled orders, um,

182
00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:08,400
Speaker 1: some companies rerouting products. You know, longer term, it's hard

183
00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:12,320
Speaker 1: to say. Seafood pricing is so global and there's so

184
00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:15,360
Speaker 1: many factors that impact it that it's it's really hard

185
00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:17,920
Speaker 1: to say from point A to B it will increase

186
00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:21,200
Speaker 1: pricing by this much. Um. Though certainly it could have

187
00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:24,040
Speaker 1: an impact on pricing. You know, it will likely have

188
00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:28,280
Speaker 1: an impact on where companies are sending their products and

189
00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:31,120
Speaker 1: whether or not that trickles down to the fisherman. It

190
00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:33,400
Speaker 1: it's really too soon to say at this point. But

191
00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:36,080
Speaker 1: you know, certainly, in the heart of our salmon season

192
00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:40,960
Speaker 1: in Alaska, having uncertainty is is not what anyone wants

193
00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:45,840
Speaker 1: to hear. Ralph, I'm curious your thoughts on this. Have

194
00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:50,040
Speaker 1: you ever seen any kind of trade war involving seafood

195
00:11:50,160 --> 00:11:54,400
Speaker 1: in all your years studying the industry, And you also

196
00:11:54,440 --> 00:11:58,840
Speaker 1: mentioned you were attending a conference on global fisheries. Is

197
00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:02,360
Speaker 1: this a hot topic right now? Well, two things, Scott Scott.

198
00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:05,560
Speaker 1: I'm only sixty seven years old, and I my entire

199
00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:08,080
Speaker 1: life has been spent in the era in which we

200
00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:12,040
Speaker 1: are lowering tariffs around the world. So this is a

201
00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:14,599
Speaker 1: first in the lifetime for me, and I suspected is

202
00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:17,240
Speaker 1: for most people who are living today. You have to

203
00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:20,720
Speaker 1: go back almost a hundred years to see the kind

204
00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:25,040
Speaker 1: of tariff change that this represents. In terms of the

205
00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:30,800
Speaker 1: discussion at the meetings I'm currently at, certainly China was discussed,

206
00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:33,559
Speaker 1: but it was really in this bigger context of look,

207
00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:38,200
Speaker 1: China is not only a major market for fish because

208
00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:42,199
Speaker 1: of its growing population and growing middle class, but also

209
00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:47,319
Speaker 1: its role in this as the world's processor of fish

210
00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:50,200
Speaker 1: and the importance that it has in the value chain.

211
00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:54,240
Speaker 1: And it was really that long term discussion of China's

212
00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:58,160
Speaker 1: crucial role to the future of seafood around the world,

213
00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:02,200
Speaker 1: rather than the short on impact, which again because of

214
00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:05,240
Speaker 1: as Alexa said, people just don't know exactly how that's

215
00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:08,640
Speaker 1: going to play out. So in light of the recent tariffs,

216
00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:12,360
Speaker 1: how feasible would it be for companies to move processing

217
00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:16,840
Speaker 1: centers out of the tariff's line of fire. Well, certainly

218
00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:19,679
Speaker 1: a lot of companies are looking at this and are

219
00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:23,400
Speaker 1: sort of weighing different options. You know, there are other

220
00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:27,920
Speaker 1: countries that do processing. Certainly there's some capacity in the US.

221
00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:31,920
Speaker 1: Countries like Vietnam and Thailand are are pretty significant reprocessing

222
00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:36,480
Speaker 1: centers for seafood. But realistically, there are not too many

223
00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:40,320
Speaker 1: options to replace the capacity in China um for our

224
00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:44,000
Speaker 1: products to be cut and repacked for consumers. We don't

225
00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:48,440
Speaker 1: have that capacity or that labor force in Alaska. And

226
00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:51,040
Speaker 1: then you know, looking at Vietnam and Thailand in places

227
00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:54,560
Speaker 1: like that, shipping costs to those countries are higher than

228
00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:58,240
Speaker 1: to China. And while there is a reprocessing sector, it's

229
00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:00,240
Speaker 1: you know, it's been a little slow to grow and

230
00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:03,920
Speaker 1: at this point cannot replace the volume that China does.

231
00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:11,079
Speaker 1: And Ralph taking a broader perspective on Alaska's economy. Alaska's

232
00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:16,040
Speaker 1: of course also known for the energy industry. And if

233
00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:18,839
Speaker 1: this trade war widens, we we've had the President talking

234
00:14:18,880 --> 00:14:23,200
Speaker 1: about how he's ready to uh start putting tariffs on

235
00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:26,040
Speaker 1: all of the Chinese imports coming to America. I'm sure

236
00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:30,240
Speaker 1: China would easily ratchet up too. Of American exports go

237
00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:34,760
Speaker 1: to China. Does Alaska's economy stands take an even bigger

238
00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:38,560
Speaker 1: hit if these tariffs start going on onto oil at

239
00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:41,720
Speaker 1: gas Scott, would you mind if I back up and

240
00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:44,600
Speaker 1: make a comment on the previous question about the ability

241
00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:48,080
Speaker 1: to shift, because I think I think the point is

242
00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:53,000
Speaker 1: if it became twenty or more expensive to process fish

243
00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:58,400
Speaker 1: in China, over time, people would find alternatives, again expanding

244
00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:02,600
Speaker 1: places like Thailand and Vietnam. But the bigger picture is

245
00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:06,960
Speaker 1: China knows that China in the US are in the

246
00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:11,160
Speaker 1: stage of of a trade war potentially where they're saying

247
00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:16,480
Speaker 1: I'm willing to incur very big losses myself to retaliate,

248
00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:20,720
Speaker 1: and you know that's not really the long run response,

249
00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:23,480
Speaker 1: and the long run China is going to say what's

250
00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:26,200
Speaker 1: in our economic long run interest, and it is not

251
00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:31,120
Speaker 1: to impose a tariff on Alaska pollock and Alaskan salmon

252
00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:35,720
Speaker 1: so that that fish goes to Thailand and Vietnam for processing.

253
00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:39,040
Speaker 1: So I think this is very much like the rest

254
00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:42,120
Speaker 1: of the trade discussions we're having. That is, how much

255
00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:45,680
Speaker 1: of what's going on is posturing and what really happens

256
00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:49,080
Speaker 1: in six months or a year is really unclear. And

257
00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:51,280
Speaker 1: I actually from talking to people in the industry, I

258
00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:53,880
Speaker 1: think there's an appreciation of that as well. And what

259
00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:57,360
Speaker 1: about the bigger threat to Alaska's economy if you get

260
00:15:57,720 --> 00:16:01,240
Speaker 1: oil and gas caught up in the trade war too. Well,

261
00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:04,560
Speaker 1: there's two aspects. Oil prices of course a determine in

262
00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:07,640
Speaker 1: a world market. It's a world commodity, and it's really

263
00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:11,920
Speaker 1: very difficult to one country to impose attacks on a

264
00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:15,920
Speaker 1: single country's oil exports because you'll simply shift oil markets

265
00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:19,000
Speaker 1: around the world. There could be an issue in Alaska

266
00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:23,920
Speaker 1: because Alaska is trying to build a liquefied national natural

267
00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:28,520
Speaker 1: gas pipeline from the North Slope to a port in

268
00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:32,640
Speaker 1: southern Alaska, and at present a primary partner in that

269
00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:37,760
Speaker 1: is sinopek Uh, the Chinese energy company. And I'm sure

270
00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:43,920
Speaker 1: that this concern that ratcheting up of tariffs on natural

271
00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:48,960
Speaker 1: gas in particular from Alaska would severely impact economics of

272
00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:51,920
Speaker 1: that project. All right, Well, this has been a really

273
00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:56,600
Speaker 1: interesting discussion. Thank you for enlightening us about the seafood

274
00:16:56,600 --> 00:17:00,280
Speaker 1: industry in Alaska. Alexa Tonkovic of the Alaska See Food

275
00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:04,720
Speaker 1: Marketing Institute and Ralph Townsend of the University of Alaska, Anchorage,

276
00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:07,439
Speaker 1: thanks for being with us on Benchmark. Thank you for

277
00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:14,520
Speaker 1: covering this Thanks very much for talking with us. Benchmark

278
00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:16,840
Speaker 1: will be back next week. Until then, you can find

279
00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:20,120
Speaker 1: us on the Bloomberg terminal, Bloomberg dot com, our Bloomberg app,

280
00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:24,080
Speaker 1: as well as podcast destinations such as Apple Podcasts, Spotify,

281
00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:26,720
Speaker 1: or wherever you listen. We'd love it if you took

282
00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:29,000
Speaker 1: the time to rate and review the show so more

283
00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:31,919
Speaker 1: listeners can find us, and you can find us on Twitter,

284
00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:36,560
Speaker 1: follow me at scott landman Feed, You are at at

285
00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:40,840
Speaker 1: R E A D E P. And Alex's Alaska Seafood

286
00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:45,720
Speaker 1: Marketing Institute is at Alaska Underscore Seat Food. Benchmark is

287
00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:48,800
Speaker 1: produced by tofor Ford. HEAs the head of Bloomberg Podcast

288
00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:52,240
Speaker 1: is Francesca Levy. Thanks for listening, See you next time.