Speaker 1: Hello, Parts Pervilion listeners, this is your host, David Schultz.
Speaker 1: This week we're bringing you an episode of our newest podcast,
Speaker 1: down Ballot Counts. Parts Pavilion will be back with a
Speaker 1: new episode soon, but we wanted to share this episode
Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Government's new weekly podcast. You can, of course
Speaker 1: subscribe to down Ballot Counts wherever you get your podcasts
Speaker 1: and enjoy the show. Hello from Washington. I'm Kyle Trigstad,
Speaker 1: politics editor at Bloomberg Government, and with me is always
Speaker 1: a senior reporter, Greg Dureau. On this episode of down
Speaker 1: Ballot Counts, we'll break down the upcoming primaries in North Carolina,
Speaker 1: a super Tuesday state set for a ton of action
Speaker 1: this year. We'll spotlight a campaign ad running on TV
Speaker 1: halfway across the country that caught our attention, and later
Speaker 1: you'll hear my interview with Casey Phillips, a Republican ad
Speaker 1: maker who just completed a fascinating documentary on how some
Speaker 1: US elections that end in ties are decided. You may
Speaker 1: not believe it. We are there with ninety nine percent
Speaker 1: of the precincts counted. Number of other key down ballot races.
Speaker 1: This is a very dramatic turn. We will have to learn.
Speaker 1: The House will be an order. Chair requests and Members
Speaker 1: Claire the Isle take seats cease audible conversation from Washington.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Government's down ballot counts. Okay, it's time
Speaker 1: for Jerro's gem, Greg. What do you got? Thank you, Kyle.
Speaker 1: Jero's jim for this week is thirty. That's the number
Speaker 1: of Democrats in the US House representatives from congressional districts
Speaker 1: that President Trump carried in the twenty sixteen election. You'll
Speaker 1: be hearing this number a lot on down ballot counts
Speaker 1: because it is that block of Democrats from Republican leaning
Speaker 1: or politically competitive districts who will determine whether Democrats keep
Speaker 1: their majority in the House in the November election. Right now,
Speaker 1: there are two hundred and thirty two Democrats, one hundred
Speaker 1: ninety seven Republicans, one independent, and five vacancies in the House.
Speaker 1: So Republicans need a net gain of about twenty seats
Speaker 1: for a majority. So those thirty Democrats from districts that
Speaker 1: voted for Trump are top targets for Republicans because, as
Speaker 1: we discussed on last week's program, most districts now vote
Speaker 1: for the same party for president and for Congress. Most
Speaker 1: of the twenty nine of those thirty who are seeking
Speaker 1: reelection or serving their first term, so they haven't become
Speaker 1: as politically ensconced in their districts as veteran members have.
Speaker 1: But these younger members, these more junior members, Kyle, are
Speaker 1: raising a lot of campaign money, and as we noted,
Speaker 1: as we've noted before, they won't be easy to defeat.
Speaker 1: So thirty you're Jiro's gym of the week, that's right.
Speaker 1: And not only are they raising a lot of money,
Speaker 1: they're raising a lot more money than the Republican opponents.
Speaker 1: So definitely that's the group of Democrats we're gonna be
Speaker 1: watching the closest as the year goes on. All right,
Speaker 1: up next, we're heading to the tar Heel State. This
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg government's down ballid counts. A court ordered new
Speaker 1: congressional map, a rash of retirements, and three competitive statewide
Speaker 1: contests for governor, senator, and president have placed in North
Speaker 1: Carolina center stage in twenty twenty. The curtain will rise
Speaker 1: on the drama on March third, Super Tuesday, when most
Speaker 1: of the attention will be on all the Democratic presidential primaries, Greg,
Speaker 1: what should we be watching for down ballot? Well, down ballot,
Speaker 1: you have a competitive governor's race which will probably be
Speaker 1: between the incumbent Democratic governor Roy Cooper and the Republican
Speaker 1: Lieutenant governor Dan Force, So listeners need to look out
Speaker 1: for that race as well. But there's also a high
Speaker 1: profile marquee US Senate race in North Carolina this year,
Speaker 1: for the seat that one term Republican incumbent Tom Tillis
Speaker 1: is defending. You have five Democrats running in the March
Speaker 1: three primary, including cal Cunningham, a former state senator and
Speaker 1: military veteran, who is the preferred candidate of the Democratic
Speaker 1: Senatorial Campaign Committee, the campaign arm of Senate Democrats. But
Speaker 1: you also have Erica Smith running in this Democratic primary.
Speaker 1: She's a current state senator who's getting some unusual help
Speaker 1: from a superpack that has Republican ties, Kyle, and is
Speaker 1: being funded with two point four million dollars trying to
Speaker 1: boost Smith in the Democratic primary against Cunningham. I think
Speaker 1: what's really interesting about this race, Kyle, is that it
Speaker 1: really underscores how Republicans would prefer to face Erica Smith,
Speaker 1: who's running is a more traditional liberal or progressive candidate
Speaker 1: than Cal Cunningham, who is the preferred candidate of Senate
Speaker 1: Democratic leaders. Yeah, and Republicans see Cunningham and sort of
Speaker 1: the same profile as Dan McCready. He's, of course, you remember,
Speaker 1: but he's a guy who ran in the ninth Congressional
Speaker 1: District special election as well as in twenty eighteen the
Speaker 1: election that never got decided, and he did really really well.
Speaker 1: Still came up short, but it's the kind of profile
Speaker 1: that you could see doing well statewide in North Carolina,
Speaker 1: which is very much a purple state, if not still
Speaker 1: slightly Republican leading, it certainly is a purple state. I
Speaker 1: looked at some of the statistics from past North Carolina elections,
Speaker 1: and in fourteen consecutive Senate general elections North Carolina, the
Speaker 1: winner has received less than fifty five percent of the vote.
Speaker 1: That's a pretty impressive streak that really underscores how competitive
Speaker 1: North Carolina is. In the twenty sixteen presidential election, President
Speaker 1: Trump carried the state by fewer than four percentage points.
Speaker 1: Maybe it's closer in the twenty twenty election. We'll have
Speaker 1: to wait and see. But Tom tell us, certainly, if
Speaker 1: we were to rank Senate races or at least make
Speaker 1: a top echelon of Senate elections we think are going
Speaker 1: to be competitive in November. Tom Tellis has to be
Speaker 1: in that top block. I think, yeah, both parties would
Speaker 1: agree with you on that. Now, there's also a few
Speaker 1: open house seats we're watching closely on Super Tuesday. That's right.
Speaker 1: You have three Republican three Republicans retiring from Congress in
Speaker 1: this coming election, two of them because of a redistricting
Speaker 1: map that was implemented by the state legislature under court order. Basically,
Speaker 1: the North Carolina courts said that the current Republican drawn map,
Speaker 1: which had elected ten Republicans and three Democrats, was you know,
Speaker 1: it had problems as a jerrymander and it probably would
Speaker 1: have been found unconstitutional under state law. So the legislature
Speaker 1: redrew the map. It gave the Democrats the an advantage
Speaker 1: in two more districts, North Carolina's second Congressional district, around Rawleigh,
Speaker 1: North Carolina's sixth Congressional district, and around Iansborough. You have
Speaker 1: two Republican incumbents retiring there and it looks like the
Speaker 1: Democrats are going to take those seats over The big
Speaker 1: question is who emerges out of those Democratic primaries those districts.
Speaker 1: The second you have Deborah Ross, a former state legislator
Speaker 1: who ran against Richard Burr, the Republican senator, in twenty sixteen,
Speaker 1: lost by a narrow margin, so she has some name
Speaker 1: recognition advantages there. In the sixth district, the Greensboro area
Speaker 1: district where Mark Walker, Republican, is retiring, you have a
Speaker 1: multi candidate Democratic primary there. That includes Kathy Manning, a
Speaker 1: lawyer and well funded candidate who ran for Congress in
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen against Republican Ted Budd in North Carolina's thirteenth district.
Speaker 1: Lost that race narrowly, but she too has some name
Speaker 1: recognition advantages. She may be able to use her advantage
Speaker 1: in the March three primary. Yeah, and while that new
Speaker 1: map pushed some Republican incumbents out, people like Ted Budd
Speaker 1: got a much nicer, more comfortable district to run in
Speaker 1: this time, so he's one of the happy ones coming
Speaker 1: out of this. Of course, Democrats are also happy because
Speaker 1: this map essentially gives them two extra seats, a two
Speaker 1: seat cushion as they defend their majority this year. That's right,
Speaker 1: And the third district I'd like to mention is North
Speaker 1: Carolina is eleventh district. This is the western part of
Speaker 1: the state. This is the district that Republican Mark Meadows
Speaker 1: is leaving open to retire. You have twelve Republicans running
Speaker 1: in that district in that primary on March the third,
Speaker 1: which really underscores how Republican leaning the district is, how
Speaker 1: much pent up ambition there probably is to succeed Mark Meadows.
Speaker 1: So we'll have to see who emerges from that primary.
Speaker 1: Twelve candidates running, you have a state center there, you
Speaker 1: have another candidate who's been backed by the Senate Conservative
Speaker 1: Action Superpack, So crowded primary there. And one thing about
Speaker 1: the North Carolina primaries is that you need thirty percent
Speaker 1: of the vote to avoid or runoff, so not fifty
Speaker 1: percent plus one like you've seen in some other states.
Speaker 1: So you could still win a primary in advance of
Speaker 1: the general election with a plarity of the vote. You
Speaker 1: just need thirty percent to advance. But North Carolina's eleventh,
Speaker 1: that's a district to watch. That's right, and Obama won
Speaker 1: the state in two thousand and eight, and of course
Speaker 1: if a Democrat replicates that feat, it would obviously help
Speaker 1: everyone else running down ballot in the party, so we
Speaker 1: will see how competitive it actually gets, and we'll leave
Speaker 1: it there because up next there is our weekly look
Speaker 1: at a recent campaign ad that stood out to us.
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen. We have a woman who's fantastic,
Speaker 1: who's been a fan of ours right from the beginning.
Speaker 1: K Granger, I'm proud to be endorsed by President Trump.
Speaker 1: Together we're rebuilding our military, securing the border, and restoring
Speaker 1: America's rightful place in the world. I'm K Granger, and
Speaker 1: I approved this message because there's still plenty of work
Speaker 1: President Trump and I need to do. Thank you. K.
Speaker 1: That was an ad from k Granger, a twelve term
Speaker 1: congresswoman from Texas's twelfth district and the top Republican on
Speaker 1: the House Appropriations Committee. Greg This isn't the kind of
Speaker 1: district we'd usually pay much attention to since it leans
Speaker 1: so heavily Republican, but she's facing a legitimate primary challenge
Speaker 1: from the right in just a few weeks. Yeah, and
Speaker 1: Kay Granger in Congress, she's never faced a serious challenger
Speaker 1: in the primary until this year, when she's been opposed
Speaker 1: by Chris Putnam, a technology businessman running is a more
Speaker 1: loyal conservative and with the support of some outside money,
Speaker 1: some outside super pac s. Kyle. So Granger has this
Speaker 1: ad now that positions her as an unswerving ally the president.
Speaker 1: And now that may not seem all that noteworthy for
Speaker 1: a Republican to run a pro Trump ad, but Granger
Speaker 1: rebuked Trump a few times during the twenty sixteen presidential election,
Speaker 1: and in fact called on him to step aside as
Speaker 1: the Republican nominee after the release of the so called
Speaker 1: Axis Hollywood tape. So this ad, really, I think underscores
Speaker 1: how much President Trump has been has come to dominate
Speaker 1: the Republican Party with very little descent within its ranks. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and the Club for Growth is one of those outside
Speaker 1: groups running ads against her. They've pledged to spend around
Speaker 1: two million dollars and they have a radio ad up
Speaker 1: right now saying she trash talk the president. And I'd
Speaker 1: also note that Granger was the spaw serve a Republican
Speaker 1: resolution last week that saw DOO rebuke Speaker Nancy Pelosi
Speaker 1: for her actions during the State of the Union address.
Speaker 1: You can read more about Granger's role in that in
Speaker 1: her primary campaign in a story, our colleague Emily Wilkins wrote,
Speaker 1: February to sixth. You can find it on the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Government website at about dot be gov dot com slash news.
Speaker 1: It's timely story because that primary Kyle is just three
Speaker 1: weeks away. Yep. One of many races to watch on
Speaker 1: Super Tuesday. All right after the break, you'll hear my
Speaker 1: interview with Republican ad maker turned documentarian Casey Phillips from Washington.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Government's down ballid Counts. Not every election
Speaker 1: is decided at the ballot box. Some that end in
Speaker 1: ties actually come down to games of chance. I sat
Speaker 1: down with Casey Phillips, a Republican ad maker who just
Speaker 1: finished a documentary called Win, Lose, or Draw Straws on
Speaker 1: all the crazy ways that elections can end coin flips,
Speaker 1: games of poker. You won't even believe it, but we
Speaker 1: sat down in his Alexandria studio to talk all about it.
Speaker 1: When we first started looking at this, I mean I
Speaker 1: had a friend growing up whose dad won a race
Speaker 1: for judge in a game of poker, and I thought,
Speaker 1: you know, that's not standard, So I never really thought
Speaker 1: much about it. And then you know, going through you know,
Speaker 1: working in politics, traveling the country, I saw another mayor's
Speaker 1: race that was decided by names out of a hat,
Speaker 1: and I thought, oh, that's really odd. And then once
Speaker 1: once I saw Hillary and Bernie flip coins, I was
Speaker 1: already kind of started working on this documentary. And you know,
Speaker 1: having Hillary what was reported seven of seven coin flips,
Speaker 1: you know, I thought, yeah, that's you know, this is weird.
Speaker 1: It's always been a part of caucuses, and it probably
Speaker 1: always will be a part of caucuses. What's also fascinating though,
Speaker 1: is then forty states, it can actually decide the election.
Speaker 1: So if you have two people running for state Senate, Congress,
Speaker 1: governor and they get the same amount of votes, it
Speaker 1: comes down to a game of chance. And there was
Speaker 1: a big one after twenty sixteen in Virginia, right, huge
Speaker 1: decided the majority of one of the houses in the legislature. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the House of Delegates was decided. The Speaker of the
Speaker 1: House of Virginia was determined on names out of a bowl.
Speaker 1: It's just always it's amazing to think that with all
Speaker 1: the year vote matters and everyone get involved, at the
Speaker 1: end of the day, it can literally be determined by
Speaker 1: names out of a hat or a coin. And so
Speaker 1: that's what the movie's about. But we've had everything from
Speaker 1: you know, state legislator, state legislature to presidential races being
Speaker 1: affected by these things. It's amazing. Yeah, all right, Well,
Speaker 1: I want to back up briefly because you and I
Speaker 1: actually met after the twenty twelve elections. I wanted to
Speaker 1: write a profile and an up and coming consultant, and
Speaker 1: everyone I talked to and asked about they kept pointing
Speaker 1: me your direction. When you go into making a TV
Speaker 1: AD for a client, What exactly are you What exactly
Speaker 1: is your goal? What goes into and making a good
Speaker 1: TV ad is honestly, for me, it's effort. I see
Speaker 1: a lot of work in this business that I consider
Speaker 1: it to be. You know, I don't want to say lazy,
Speaker 1: but I want to say that they could have done
Speaker 1: better had they just given it another ten percent. Right. So,
Speaker 1: I think that a big part of being able to
Speaker 1: produce really quality content is not taking too many clients,
Speaker 1: spending time with those clients, listening to them, understanding the
Speaker 1: both the candidate you're trying to sell and the people
Speaker 1: you're trying to sell it to, and at that point,
Speaker 1: you know, for me, it just kind of flows out cool. Well,
Speaker 1: and so now all of a sudden, you are a
Speaker 1: documentary film director. How did this project and your decision
Speaker 1: to go for it really come about? Well? So, and
Speaker 1: this is I'm a weird person. I mean just flat
Speaker 1: out weird. Anything that I like, I want to be
Speaker 1: able to know how to make. Yeah, I just kind
Speaker 1: of like to get my hands dirty, and that's actually
Speaker 1: the way my brain works best. And then I'm traveling
Speaker 1: the country with a film crew, right Like, if I'm
Speaker 1: not working on a documentary, I would feel like I
Speaker 1: was leaving something on the table. So being able to
Speaker 1: produce this for pennies of what it would cost some
Speaker 1: a studio to go out and do it, and then
Speaker 1: having to be political, I have the access to, you know,
Speaker 1: not only Republican consultants, but Democratic consultants that do just
Speaker 1: what we do. You know, our lives are extremely similar.
Speaker 1: And I see them in the airport and say, hey,
Speaker 1: could you put me in touch with this person? And
Speaker 1: you know, usually usually they're more than happy to because
Speaker 1: you know, it's kind of we're all doing the same thing. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you're flying around to film candidates for their commercials and
Speaker 1: their states. I don't want to give it too much away,
Speaker 1: but what was the most surprising tie breaking mechanism you
Speaker 1: came across in your travels. Well, we're still trying to
Speaker 1: we're still trying to sort out if it's true or not.
Speaker 1: But there is an article in the Anchorage Daily News,
Speaker 1: I believe it is that tells us about a tiebreaker
Speaker 1: during territorial elections. So that would have been, you know,
Speaker 1: prior to becoming a state, where two candidates tied for
Speaker 1: the state Senate and they had a whiskey drink off
Speaker 1: at the local saloon in town. So it was one
Speaker 1: shot glass, one bottle, back and forth, back and forth
Speaker 1: until somebody fell off their chair and whoever didn't had
Speaker 1: to go to the capitol and vote. So yeah, I mean,
Speaker 1: a phenomenal story. You know, we've been researching it forever
Speaker 1: and haven't been able to really nail down who they were,
Speaker 1: but it's a news story. So and I saw a
Speaker 1: woman in the trailer who mentioned an arm wrestling competition potentially,
Speaker 1: So they come up with all kinds of ideas, And
Speaker 1: I mean in Kentucky specifically, it's against the law to duel,
Speaker 1: so you can't kill the other person. And Colorado you
Speaker 1: get to choose whichever sort of game of chance, you want.
Speaker 1: So two guys running for a city council seat did
Speaker 1: kind of spin off of Rock Paper Scissors called Ninja
Speaker 1: Bear Cowboy, And so you stand back to back, you
Speaker 1: turn and it's like Ninja beats Cowboy. Cowboy beats Bear,
Speaker 1: Bear beats Ninja. So so that's how they select. They
Speaker 1: selected themselves there. So this documentary doesn't simply document the
Speaker 1: reality of these tie breaking votes and elections. What does
Speaker 1: it say and what are you hoping it sparks in
Speaker 1: terms of a conversation in America? Well, I mean, the
Speaker 1: reason that I was so careful to make sure that
Speaker 1: it was nonpartisan was because I don't, you know, there's
Speaker 1: so much partisanship out there right now, and so much
Speaker 1: of what I do as partisan and not helping that problem.
Speaker 1: So one of the things that I wanted to do
Speaker 1: was to make a a you know, people in my
Speaker 1: generation regularly tell even tell me then they know I
Speaker 1: work in the business, it doesn't matter, I don't matter,
Speaker 1: And so I thought, what a better way to show
Speaker 1: people directly that their vote could have mattered than putting
Speaker 1: two people who tied on screen. So any one vote
Speaker 1: either way, you know, makes a difference not only in
Speaker 1: that in that race, but in their legislature and the
Speaker 1: legislation coming out of it, and and in someone's life.
Speaker 1: And so for me, that was the you know, that's
Speaker 1: the message. But I try not to be too preachy
Speaker 1: about it, because they're interesting enough as they are. But
Speaker 1: if I'm screaming at you go vote, then it's not
Speaker 1: a movie. It's a PSA. So I want people to
Speaker 1: take from the movie what they will. But I hope
Speaker 1: it's certain, you know, tells people in my generation or
Speaker 1: any generation that that they can that they can't count.
Speaker 1: All right, So what's next for the film? Where can
Speaker 1: our listeners, you know, watch this thing? So honestly, we're
Speaker 1: we're just waiting for a film festival to take a
Speaker 1: chance on us. We you know, we thought we had
Speaker 1: high hopes for sun Dance, but Taylor Swift just swooped
Speaker 1: in and took our spot. We thought we were good.
Speaker 1: Hillary came in with a doc took that spot. So
Speaker 1: we're officially Sundance rejects. But we are submitted to about
Speaker 1: thirty festivals and we're waiting to hear back. As soon
Speaker 1: as we get a premiere. I'm gonna let everybody know.
Speaker 1: I can't wait to have everyone come out and watch it,
Speaker 1: and then you know, we'll try to figure out how
Speaker 1: to We have a sales agent now, so we figure
Speaker 1: out how to get it onto streaming services and time
Speaker 1: for for fall. Well, I'm really looking forward to seeing it.
Speaker 1: You can learn more about the film at Drawstraws dot
Speaker 1: film and you can follow Casey on Twitter at Casey One. Casey.
Speaker 1: Thanks so much. This is Down Valley Counts. Now before
Speaker 1: we close the show, You've got a parting shot of
Speaker 1: trivia for you. It's trivia time on Down Ballot Counts.
Speaker 1: Each week I'll try to stump Kyle and you the
Speaker 1: listeners with a political trivia question. But before I asked
Speaker 1: this week's question, let's review last week's question, and I
Speaker 1: asked how many US senators are seeking reelection in November
Speaker 1: in states that were won by the opposite party's presidential
Speaker 1: nominee in twenty sixteen. In other words, how many Republican
Speaker 1: senators are seeking reelection in states Hillary Clinton won and
Speaker 1: how many Democratic senators are seeking reelection in state's Donald
Speaker 1: Trump won. Add them together, Kyle, what do you have
Speaker 1: for me? I've got four ding ding Ding that is correct,
Speaker 1: And can you name all four Republican and Democratic senators? Oh,
Speaker 1: that's tough, all right, put you on the spot. You
Speaker 1: don't have to do that, Kyle, I got it. Doug Jones,
Speaker 1: Cory Gardner, yes, yes, Susan Collins correct, and Gary Peters
Speaker 1: Gary Peters in Michigan. You got all four too, So
Speaker 1: really put you on the spot there by forcing you
Speaker 1: to name all four of them. You got them all right,
Speaker 1: of course, So well done on that. But let's see
Speaker 1: if you are ready for this week's question. Bring it on,
Speaker 1: all right, you're on the hot seat. Here's this week's question.
Speaker 1: There are three states where both senators last names begin
Speaker 1: with the same letter of the alphabet. You don't have
Speaker 1: to name all three states, or even every senator, but
Speaker 1: just name me two of the states, Kyle and listeners,
Speaker 1: two of the three states where both senators last names
Speaker 1: begin with the same letter of the alphabet. I have
Speaker 1: to say that I didn't invent this question. By heard
Speaker 1: it from a friend last week who heard it at
Speaker 1: a game he recently played, and I liked it so
Speaker 1: much I'm going to borrow it here for don ballot counts.
Speaker 1: I'm going to give Kyle and you the listeners plenty
Speaker 1: of time to think that over until next week, in fact,
Speaker 1: but if you can, you can shoot your answers anytime
Speaker 1: you want to begov podcast at begov dot com, or
Speaker 1: tweet the answer to the Bloomberg Government Twitter handle at
Speaker 1: BOV and use the hashtag down Ballot Pod. We'll reveal
Speaker 1: the answer and ask a new question on next week's program.
Speaker 1: That's it for us today. The producer for down Ballot
Speaker 1: Counts is David Schultz and Rjjewel. You can follow us
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Kyle Triggstad and at Greg Duau, and
Speaker 1: be sure to check out all the great politics coverage
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Government's website about dot bigov dot com. We'll
Speaker 1: talk to you next week. Hi there, I'm Amanda Icon,
Speaker 1: co host of Talking Tax. Each week we dig into
Speaker 1: the biggest tax and financial accounting challenges and opportunities, from
Speaker 1: policy to on the ground realities. We bring you corporate leaders,
Speaker 1: accountants and industry insiders. You can find us wherever you
Speaker 1: get your podcasts. For more, check us out on news
Speaker 1: dot Bloomberg Tax dot com