1 00:00:00,560 --> 00:00:02,840 Speaker 1: This is Tom Rowlan's Reese, and you're listening to Switched 2 00:00:02,880 --> 00:00:05,920 Speaker 1: on the podcast brought to you by Bloomberg NIF. Each year, 3 00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:09,319 Speaker 1: B andF publishes a Sustainable Energy in America Factbook, an 4 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:12,200 Speaker 1: annual report produced in partnership with the Business Council for 5 00:00:12,200 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 1: Sustainable Energy. For more than a decade, it has provided 6 00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:18,400 Speaker 1: a fact based snapshot of where the US energy system stands, 7 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:23,600 Speaker 1: documenting trends in power generation, investment, transport, and policy, providing 8 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 1: a factual baseline for understanding the US energy system. The 9 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 1: twenty twenty six edition captures a pivotal year. Electricity demands 10 00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:33,160 Speaker 1: surged to a twenty year high, driven in large part 11 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 1: by data centers, even as federal policy support for clean 12 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:39,839 Speaker 1: energy technologies were scaled back. Despite those headwinds, renewables and 13 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:43,240 Speaker 1: storage accounted for the overwhelming majority of new capacity editions, 14 00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:46,560 Speaker 1: investment reached a record and clean technologies held their ground 15 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:49,480 Speaker 1: in a shifting policy landscape. So what does the data 16 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:52,159 Speaker 1: really say about where the US energy transition stands and 17 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 1: how resilient are clean technology is in the face of 18 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 1: policy turbulence? With me today to review findings from the 19 00:00:57,720 --> 00:01:00,320 Speaker 1: Sustainable Energy in America twenty twenty six fact bookok are 20 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:03,760 Speaker 1: Ethan Zindler, Bloomberg NIF's head of Country and Policy Research, 21 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 1: and Trina White, a senior associate from our North America 22 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 1: Transition Team. 23 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 2: BNYF. 24 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 1: Clients can find this year's factbook, along with associated research 25 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 1: by heading to BNF go on the Bloomberg terminal or 26 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:16,840 Speaker 1: BNF dot com. If you'd like to learn more about 27 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:20,280 Speaker 1: how BNF approaches strategy research on the energy transition, including 28 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:23,720 Speaker 1: developments in commodity markets, trends across different sectors, and the 29 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 1: cross cutting technology shaping the future, you can find more 30 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:29,120 Speaker 1: information on BNF dot com, and if you'd like to 31 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:31,279 Speaker 1: speak with a member of our team about becoming your client, 32 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 1: email US at Sales dot BNF at Bloomberg dot net. 33 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 1: But for now, let's take a closer look at what 34 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:39,440 Speaker 1: the numbers from this year's factbook reveal about the energy 35 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:52,280 Speaker 1: transition in the US. Ethan, Welcome to the podcast. Thank you, 36 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 1: and Trina welcome to the podcast. 37 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 3: Hi, nice to be here. 38 00:01:56,000 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 1: I'm so the Sustainable Energy in America Factbook something we've 39 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:05,040 Speaker 1: been doing for more than a decade. Ethan, you were 40 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 1: involved in its inception, so can you just give us 41 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:12,360 Speaker 1: a little bit of background as to what is this 42 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 1: fight book, Why do we do it? Who reads it? 43 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:15,639 Speaker 1: What's the point? 44 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:20,200 Speaker 2: Sure good questions. So we've been doing it, yeah, for 45 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:24,080 Speaker 2: well over a decade now, and really it's intended as 46 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 2: a bit of a level setting in terms of just 47 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 2: where things stand in the US in terms of the 48 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 2: various technologies that we track and that the Business Council 49 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 2: for Sustainable Energy cares about and BCSE for those who 50 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 2: don't know, as a coalition representing a slew of companies 51 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 2: and trade organizations primarily in the renewables, energy efficiency, and 52 00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:49,680 Speaker 2: natural gas sectors overall. So the goal of the project 53 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 2: from the start has always been to essentially be very 54 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:55,120 Speaker 2: much focused just on where we are right now, based 55 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 2: in Washington, and let's just say this is a place 56 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 2: that could always use a few more and that's one 57 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:02,639 Speaker 2: of the goals is to provide them here. 58 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:06,520 Speaker 1: Got it? And Trina, you're a relative newcomer to the 59 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 1: fact book. How did you find working on a report 60 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:12,800 Speaker 1: that is both so broad in its scope and so 61 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 1: fact based. It's not to say that bnef's work isn't 62 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:18,959 Speaker 1: fact based generally, but we're always then taking those facts 63 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 1: and kind of producing sort of a forward looking views, 64 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 1: whereas this is really about, just like Ethan said, a 65 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 1: level set. So how did you find that process and 66 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:31,240 Speaker 1: you know what was ie opening for you? Just generally 67 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:32,560 Speaker 1: in a broad sense. 68 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely. It was a very different project from a 69 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 3: lot of what BENEF typically works on. For exactly that reason. 70 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 3: We actually had to rain ourselves in a bit from 71 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:45,640 Speaker 3: trying to, you know, say, what might happen next or 72 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:49,040 Speaker 3: include some of our forecasts or our ideas of what 73 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 3: might happen over the next five years, because the focus 74 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 3: really is just what happened in twenty twenty five and 75 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:58,280 Speaker 3: what did that mean in the kind of near term 76 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 3: the present moment. It is really interesting from the perspective 77 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 3: of touching everything that BENEF does. So for me personally, 78 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:10,120 Speaker 3: this was distinct because I sort of recently moved into 79 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 3: a role of covering North America from a cross sector perspective. 80 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 3: So having this be one of the first projects that 81 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:19,720 Speaker 3: I worked on in that new role meant being able 82 00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 3: to get intimately familiar with a lot of the research 83 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:26,840 Speaker 3: that happens across many different sector teams and covering everything 84 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 3: from gas to electric vehicles to renewable energy policy and 85 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:34,679 Speaker 3: all kind of tying that together in one place. 86 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:39,360 Speaker 1: I have also been involved. I've been in Trina's role 87 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 1: that she played this year in previous years. I was 88 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:46,360 Speaker 1: always really struck by how much people in d C 89 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 1: look forward to the publication of this fact book. You know, 90 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:51,240 Speaker 1: you would go to the launch and there'd be so 91 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:54,080 Speaker 1: many people like, yes, I've got to see his fact book. 92 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 1: It's sort of like so full of factoids. 93 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 3: And I heard Sure referred to it as our super bow. 94 00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 1: Yeah exactly. I mean, wow, you know you're an energy wonk. 95 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:10,000 Speaker 1: Where the samele Energy in America factbook as your super 96 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:13,040 Speaker 1: Bowl And coincidentally it happens at around the same time. 97 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:15,480 Speaker 3: So people said, happy fact book week. 98 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 1: Happy factbook week? Should we should see if the fact 99 00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 1: book can be the halftime show for next year. I 100 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:26,520 Speaker 1: also love a fact book because so often there's surprising 101 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:31,119 Speaker 1: and interesting facts that maybe are contrary to what one's 102 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 1: expectations of belief. Sorry, I think that certainly among the 103 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:37,160 Speaker 1: people are operating politically in DC, there's a lot of 104 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 1: perception and it's useful to have information that runs against that. Also, 105 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:42,560 Speaker 1: I love a good fact book. When I was a kid, 106 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 1: I was a devourer of random facts, typically in the 107 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 1: format of did you know x y zed, like did 108 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:53,360 Speaker 1: you know that octopuses have three hearts and two of 109 00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 1: them stop beating when they swim? For example? So I 110 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:00,479 Speaker 1: wanted to try something with Trainer and Ethan. I want 111 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 1: you to pull interesting facts from the fact book in 112 00:06:04,200 --> 00:06:06,680 Speaker 1: the format of did you know? And we will say 113 00:06:06,720 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 1: a few and then we'll maybe dive into one. So 114 00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 1: we're going to go round the table with some facts. 115 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 1: Trina and Ethan are obviously going to draw from the 116 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 1: fact book because they are experts. My facts are going 117 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 1: to be somewhat random, but I'm going to go first, 118 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:22,760 Speaker 1: just to get the ball rolling. Did you know bananas 119 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:25,800 Speaker 1: are berries but strawberries aren't? Trina? What's your fact. 120 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:27,560 Speaker 3: It? 121 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 1: Sis me? 122 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:34,880 Speaker 3: Did you know that US electricity generation should hit a 123 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:37,799 Speaker 3: twenty year high in twenty twenty five, reaching over forty 124 00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:39,279 Speaker 3: five hundred terawa hours? 125 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:40,920 Speaker 1: Interesting? Ethan? 126 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:45,279 Speaker 2: Did you know lithiumyan battery manufacturing capacity in the US 127 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 2: jumped fifty six percent in twenty twenty five alone, reaching 128 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 2: two hundred and ninety five gig or white hours per year? 129 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:55,280 Speaker 1: Did you know a group of flamingos is called a flamboyance. 130 00:06:57,520 --> 00:06:59,880 Speaker 3: Did you know that the US added fifty four dig 131 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 3: watts of new utility scale generation it's storage capacity in 132 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 3: twenty twenty five, and that's the highest annual total in 133 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:07,440 Speaker 3: more than two decades. 134 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 2: And did you know that US energy transition investment reached 135 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:14,080 Speaker 2: a record three hundred and seventy eight billion dollars in 136 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 2: twenty twenty five, even amid major policy changes. 137 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 1: Well, that one's interesting. Well, they're all interesting, but. 138 00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 2: I want to dive into the flamingos. But okay, let's 139 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 2: keep it. 140 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll talk about the flamingos on another podcast, but 141 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 1: let's dive into this investment number. So, sustainable energy investment 142 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 1: you just said hit three hundred and seventy eight billion dollars. 143 00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:36,680 Speaker 1: Did that represent an increase year on you? 144 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 2: Yes, three and a half percent increase? 145 00:07:39,440 --> 00:07:43,400 Speaker 1: Got it? And where roughly were we seeing the money going? 146 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 1: Was there any trends? I'm assuming that there are sectors 147 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 1: where there was an increase and maybe somewhere there was 148 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:50,840 Speaker 1: a decrease. 149 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, So the biggest growth was investment in grids, and 150 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 2: that maybe isn't surprising given what we're seeing across the 151 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:01,400 Speaker 2: market in terms of suddenly a real step up in 152 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 2: demand for electricity, and so there's been a lot of 153 00:08:04,000 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 2: focus on building out the infrastructure to accommodate that. There's 154 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 2: been a lot of activity. There's also been a rise 155 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 2: in prices of some of the key equipment used in grids, 156 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 2: namely transformers among other things, so that certainly I think 157 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:19,119 Speaker 2: has contributed to both those things as well. The dollar 158 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:24,360 Speaker 2: performance for renewables was not as impressive, but that's not 159 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 2: always a bad story because the per unit prices of 160 00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 2: clean energy have been going down, so you know, you 161 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:34,840 Speaker 2: can build more for the same amount of money overall. 162 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:37,600 Speaker 2: And then we'll get into talking about evs as well, 163 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 2: which it was a new record for ev sales, but 164 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 2: the market definitely cooled down in the fourth quarter of 165 00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:46,079 Speaker 2: the year. So those are kind of the main pieces. 166 00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:48,839 Speaker 2: I may certainly be missing some up, Patrina, feel free 167 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 2: to jump in if I did. Yeah. 168 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 3: Something that I would add on grids as well that 169 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:55,320 Speaker 3: we've seen over the past couple of years is investment 170 00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 3: in resiliency at wildfire mitigation and just kind of deal 171 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:03,000 Speaker 3: with the manifestation of physical climate risk and its impact 172 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:05,880 Speaker 3: on the grid and aging infrastructure. So I think we're 173 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 3: starting to really see that show up on transport. To 174 00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:12,559 Speaker 3: Ethan's point, it was just slightly a record year in 175 00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 3: twenty twenty five for sales. A lot of that happened 176 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:19,880 Speaker 3: in the third quarter, which was just prior to the 177 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:23,680 Speaker 3: tax credit incentive for the purchase of new electric vehicles 178 00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:27,480 Speaker 3: phasing out. And I think what that kind of taking 179 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 3: the impact of the phase out on electric vehicles and 180 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 3: extrapolating that to what we might have expected to see 181 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 3: and maybe will see on the renewable side. The tax 182 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:42,600 Speaker 3: incentives for renewables did not phase out in twenty twenty five, 183 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:44,959 Speaker 3: so a lot of what people kind of colloquially talked 184 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 3: about was maybe seeing the impact of the change of 185 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:52,280 Speaker 3: administration on investment levels and renewables. Actually, in fact, what 186 00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:56,760 Speaker 3: we saw was renewable investment relatively remaining steady, and maybe 187 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:59,520 Speaker 3: that's what we could expect to see change over time 188 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 3: as incentive structures evolve. 189 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:02,079 Speaker 2: Got it. 190 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:07,120 Speaker 1: So there are these policy headwinds, but they haven't necessarily 191 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:10,120 Speaker 1: hit yet. We know they're coming. But part of the 192 00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:12,719 Speaker 1: story here is like a change of an administration and 193 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:16,280 Speaker 1: a change of attitude towards some of these areas doesn't 194 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:19,200 Speaker 1: translate into an instant change of direction in the industry. 195 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 1: And so while the resilience of investment is maybe a 196 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 1: positive story for people in the space, I guess what 197 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 1: you're saying is is that we shouldn't interpret that as 198 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:31,679 Speaker 1: policy doesn't matter. It's just that some of it hasn't 199 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 1: kicked in yet. 200 00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:35,959 Speaker 3: I think, yeah, exactly. The timelines are complex and the 201 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:39,120 Speaker 3: impact will be felt at different times in different sectors. 202 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:41,360 Speaker 3: But I do think it's notable that we didn't see 203 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 3: investment crash or anything like that in twenty twenty five. 204 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:47,280 Speaker 1: Got it, Let's do another round of did you know? 205 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:50,680 Speaker 1: Did you know sharks existed before trees? 206 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:54,559 Speaker 2: Did you know renewable natural gas now accounts for ninety 207 00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:57,440 Speaker 2: four percent of the fuel used by natural gas vehicles 208 00:10:57,480 --> 00:10:57,960 Speaker 2: in the US. 209 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:02,200 Speaker 3: Did you know that global transition investment hit two point 210 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 3: three trillion in twenty twenty five, with China alone accounting 211 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:06,880 Speaker 3: for eight hundred billion of that. 212 00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:09,800 Speaker 1: Did you know that there's a species of jellyfish that 213 00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 1: is biologically immortal. 214 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:15,840 Speaker 2: Did you know duties on non EV batteries jumped from 215 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:18,559 Speaker 2: eleven percent to one hundred and fifty six percent in 216 00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:22,120 Speaker 2: April twenty twenty five? Before settling back at thirty one 217 00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:23,600 Speaker 2: percent at the end of the year. 218 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:27,040 Speaker 3: Did you know that US electricity demand from data centers 219 00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:29,640 Speaker 3: has grown more than one hundred and fifty percent in 220 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:32,439 Speaker 3: the last five years alone and is now one of 221 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:34,800 Speaker 3: the dominant drivers of load growth overall. 222 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 1: Okay, that's one that I think we can dive into 223 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 1: a little bit more, because I think that this load 224 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:42,839 Speaker 1: growth and data census are such a central story to 225 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:46,800 Speaker 1: the US right now. So like, maybe before we even 226 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:50,719 Speaker 1: get into that particular angle, what did deployment look like 227 00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:52,320 Speaker 1: across the power sector generally? 228 00:11:52,760 --> 00:11:55,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, Actually, also at a metal level, I just wanted 229 00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:57,599 Speaker 3: to note that this is the first year that we 230 00:11:57,679 --> 00:12:02,079 Speaker 3: actually included several pages on data centers in the fact book, 231 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:04,320 Speaker 3: And this gets to kind of the point that we've 232 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:07,160 Speaker 3: made earlier about this being kind of backward looking and 233 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 3: a stock take on what actually happened. We've been talking 234 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:14,400 Speaker 3: about data centers becoming a dominant source of load growth 235 00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:17,040 Speaker 3: for a long time now, but it was really last 236 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 3: year that I think this began to materialize to a 237 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:23,320 Speaker 3: great degree, and so it's a big focus of both 238 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:25,760 Speaker 3: the fact book itself and then the conversations that we've 239 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:28,760 Speaker 3: been having around the fact book, we estimate that data 240 00:12:28,800 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 3: center power demand in the US reached about forty one 241 00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:35,680 Speaker 3: gigawatts in twenty twenty five. Like we said, that's about 242 00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty percent increase in the past five years. 243 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 3: That's actually five times as much as occurred in twenty fifteen. 244 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:45,880 Speaker 3: So just in the past ten years that number has 245 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:49,440 Speaker 3: quinn tubled. A lot of that growth in data center 246 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 3: power demand is coming from PGM, which is the largest 247 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:56,319 Speaker 3: grid operator in the nation. It's about thirteen states in DC. 248 00:12:56,800 --> 00:12:59,479 Speaker 3: A lot of it is also in Texas and increasingly 249 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 3: in this southeast as more and more of these AI 250 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:06,840 Speaker 3: data centers get built out outside of just northern Virginia, 251 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:09,600 Speaker 3: which traditionally was kind of a data center hub. 252 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 1: So I'm guessing that a lot of this additional power 253 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:14,720 Speaker 1: demand that, like you say, it's been on the horizon, 254 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 1: but now that's really this is the first year where 255 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 1: we've really seen it materially tick up the power demand 256 00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 1: because of data centers, which I assume means that we've 257 00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:27,480 Speaker 1: also seen an increase in capacity. So are we seeing 258 00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:30,719 Speaker 1: more capacity? When I say capacity, I mean capacity for 259 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:34,920 Speaker 1: producing electricity? More power plants of different types I'm assuming 260 00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:37,000 Speaker 1: that's getting built to meet this Demnon, what are we 261 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:37,840 Speaker 1: seeing getting built? 262 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:41,559 Speaker 3: Well, we certainly are seeing a lot of capacity editions. 263 00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:44,360 Speaker 3: I think. Actually one of my did you knows was 264 00:13:44,440 --> 00:13:48,200 Speaker 3: that twenty twenty five was a record year for capacity 265 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:51,760 Speaker 3: editions of utility scale generation and storage capacity in the US. 266 00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:56,080 Speaker 3: That being said, a lot of grid operators and tech 267 00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:58,760 Speaker 3: companies will tell you that this is not being built 268 00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:01,960 Speaker 3: out nearly fast enough to meet that increase in data 269 00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:06,040 Speaker 3: center demand, and that mismatch between supply and demand is 270 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 3: now sort of manifesting in price hikes, particularly at the 271 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 3: wholesale level and increasingly also at the retail rate or 272 00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:17,480 Speaker 3: what gets passed on to consumers. That being said, it 273 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 3: was a record year of build about fifty four gigawatts 274 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:24,080 Speaker 3: of utility scale capacity interconnected to the grid. The vast 275 00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:29,040 Speaker 3: majority that is clean, so if we include storage, about 276 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:33,120 Speaker 3: ninety percent of new capacity editions were zero carbon, twenty 277 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 3: seven gigawatts of that with solar. Fifteen gigawatts of that 278 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:41,040 Speaker 3: was energy storage. Utility scale storage really didn't become a 279 00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:44,160 Speaker 3: huge story until the past about like four years or so. 280 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:46,960 Speaker 3: We've been talking about batteries for a long time, but 281 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:51,680 Speaker 3: that growth is really beginning to truly materialize as the 282 00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:56,280 Speaker 3: benefits of batteries to grid reliability increase as costs come 283 00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 3: down significantly. 284 00:14:57,920 --> 00:14:58,320 Speaker 2: This is so. 285 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:01,680 Speaker 1: Interesting because I think, I think when we hear about 286 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:04,960 Speaker 1: this explosive growth and power demand because of data centers, 287 00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:07,800 Speaker 1: so much of the talk is, you know, what about 288 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:10,280 Speaker 1: all these gas plants they're going to have to get 289 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:12,800 Speaker 1: built to beat this demand because they're the only ones 290 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:15,400 Speaker 1: that can do it. Or how much more fossil fuels 291 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 1: are we going to be consuming? I'm kind of curious 292 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:21,200 Speaker 1: to know. You know, obviously there's been more capacity built, 293 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:24,120 Speaker 1: but how has generation evolved in and are we seeing 294 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:27,920 Speaker 1: more coal or more gas? What's going on there? 295 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 2: So maybe I'll just jump in for one second and 296 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 2: maybe one quick thing just to add onto a Trina 297 00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:34,520 Speaker 2: was saying about prices, and we should come back and 298 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,040 Speaker 2: talk a little bit about prices, because it's certainly been 299 00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:39,760 Speaker 2: retail prices have been getting a lot of attention, and 300 00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:42,280 Speaker 2: they have been going up in some parts of the 301 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 2: US just at the same time that we've seen a 302 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 2: lot of these data centers come online or start to 303 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:50,280 Speaker 2: get initiated to get built. I would say there's not 304 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:52,760 Speaker 2: a there's certainly a lot of kind of correlation in 305 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:54,560 Speaker 2: terms of the pricing going up in some of the 306 00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:57,520 Speaker 2: same places where the data centers are getting built. There 307 00:15:57,600 --> 00:16:01,480 Speaker 2: isn't necessarily proven causation yet, but there very well could 308 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 2: be into the future. So I think we could kind 309 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:05,960 Speaker 2: of park that and come back to it a little bit. 310 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:08,400 Speaker 2: In terms of the actual generation, You're right, Tom, I 311 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:10,840 Speaker 2: mean we we as was mentioned, I think earlier, we 312 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:13,560 Speaker 2: did hit a high of forty five hundred tarowad hours 313 00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:17,280 Speaker 2: of total generation, the highest level in twenty years at least, 314 00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:19,600 Speaker 2: and it has been a little bit kind of all 315 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:22,760 Speaker 2: hands on deck in terms of whatever can produce has 316 00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:25,840 Speaker 2: been producing. And so as a result of that, to 317 00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 2: take the kind of clearest example of that cold generation, 318 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 2: which has generally been sliding really over the last decade, 319 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 2: and at one time was about over a decade ago, 320 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:37,320 Speaker 2: was about forty percent of total generation. It dipped all 321 00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:39,520 Speaker 2: the way to fifteen percent in twenty twenty four, but 322 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:42,040 Speaker 2: it actually ticked up a little bit into twenty twenty 323 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 2: five to seven hundred and thirty five tarrawat hours from 324 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:47,680 Speaker 2: six hundred and fifty two the year prior. And so 325 00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 2: you know, that's the you know, from an environmental perspective, 326 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:53,320 Speaker 2: that's the less good news. Obviously in terms of the 327 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:56,120 Speaker 2: you know, the new stuff that got built, Trina really 328 00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 2: touched on it. It's almost entirely zero carbon. And then 329 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:01,440 Speaker 2: in terms of what to come, you know, this is 330 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:04,800 Speaker 2: of course where we're venturing outside the safe spheres facts 331 00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 2: and into the world of it's a speculation, but you know, 332 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:10,639 Speaker 2: obviously a lot of concern and discussion around what that 333 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:13,119 Speaker 2: will be. I think it's our general view that we 334 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:15,560 Speaker 2: don't think coal new coal plants are not going to 335 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:17,879 Speaker 2: be what comes along, but potentially a good deal of 336 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 2: new gas power generation is in the works, but with 337 00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:24,919 Speaker 2: some natural limitations, just based on the availability of natural 338 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 2: gas turbines that can actually outfit those projects to produce 339 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:29,080 Speaker 2: that power. 340 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:31,399 Speaker 1: It kind of comes back to what Trina was saying is, 341 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:33,680 Speaker 1: you know, we highlighted there's been a lot of renewables 342 00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:35,680 Speaker 1: being built to meet this new demand, but it's actually 343 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:39,119 Speaker 1: not enough of everything, you know, whether it's gas or renewables, 344 00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:40,960 Speaker 1: not enough is getting built. It kind of has this 345 00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:43,280 Speaker 1: knock on effect on power prices. 346 00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:46,000 Speaker 3: So actually I wanted to touch on a couple of 347 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 3: the points that Ethan just made and expand on it 348 00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:52,720 Speaker 3: a bit, particularly when it comes to the coal power 349 00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:56,440 Speaker 3: generation increase. We really do see that flow through to 350 00:17:56,880 --> 00:18:00,200 Speaker 3: emissions in a meaningful way, which we do focus on 351 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:03,720 Speaker 3: in the factbook. One thing that I think is pretty 352 00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 3: striking is that the progress that the US has made 353 00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:10,000 Speaker 3: on emissions over the past about twenty years or so 354 00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:13,280 Speaker 3: from the original Paris Agreement basedline of two thousand and five, 355 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:16,040 Speaker 3: most of that progress has come from the power sector. 356 00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:19,879 Speaker 3: So that story of coal power generation being displaced by 357 00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:24,280 Speaker 3: cleaner sources of generation like gas and like renewables, has 358 00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:29,359 Speaker 3: really driven the decrease in overall US economy wide emissions. 359 00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:33,560 Speaker 3: That trend reversed just slightly in the past two years, 360 00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:38,399 Speaker 3: so power sector emissions and economy wide emissions basically flatlined 361 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:42,359 Speaker 3: are actually in stop slightly, and that is a story 362 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:45,320 Speaker 3: that kind of follows directly from that increase in coal 363 00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:48,600 Speaker 3: power generation, as existing plants had to run more to 364 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 3: meet increased demand. 365 00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:53,360 Speaker 1: It's interesting because you know, we talked about how much 366 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:56,399 Speaker 1: renewables got built more than anything, but this increase in 367 00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:59,920 Speaker 1: demand changes what that actually means. So in the past 368 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:03,040 Speaker 1: they meant more renewables meant less coal, and you know, 369 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:05,720 Speaker 1: once the coal is displaced, it would eventually mean less gas. 370 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 1: But actually those renewables were just meeting increased demand, and 371 00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:13,200 Speaker 1: you know that sounds very interesting academically. I suppose where 372 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:16,200 Speaker 1: it really matters is a year that it might be good, 373 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:18,440 Speaker 1: or a trend that might be good if you're a 374 00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:21,639 Speaker 1: wind or solar developer or in those industries. Generally does 375 00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:23,840 Speaker 1: not necessarily mean that it's a year that's good if 376 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:26,240 Speaker 1: you're an environmentalist, and that's what your concern is. 377 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:30,600 Speaker 3: Absolutely, there's an overallapp between the interest of the renewables 378 00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:34,280 Speaker 3: industry and the climate movement, but they don't align completely. 379 00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 1: Got it? So we do some more facts if you're ready. 380 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,720 Speaker 1: Did you know that sloths can hold their breath longer 381 00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:42,400 Speaker 1: than dolphins? 382 00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 3: Did you know that climate related damages in the US 383 00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:48,960 Speaker 3: totaled over eight hundred billion dollars in twenty twenty five, 384 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:51,919 Speaker 3: that's about two point six percent of GDP? 385 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,880 Speaker 2: Did you know that nuclear power announced for data center 386 00:19:55,960 --> 00:20:00,240 Speaker 2: projects totals forty three gigawattes compared to just zero point 387 00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:02,879 Speaker 2: four to three gigawattes of advanced geothermal. 388 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:05,800 Speaker 1: Did you know that the inventor of the microwave, discovered 389 00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 1: it after chocolate bar melted in his pocket. 390 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:11,680 Speaker 2: As you know, US EV sales hit a record one 391 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:15,200 Speaker 2: point six million vehicles in twenty twenty five, accounting for 392 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:17,320 Speaker 2: about one in ten new cars sold. 393 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:21,359 Speaker 1: Okay, interesting, let's let's dive into that one. Because electric 394 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:26,879 Speaker 1: vehicles are a very hot topic always, and you know, 395 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:29,520 Speaker 1: with all these headwinds we've been talking about, it was 396 00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:31,479 Speaker 1: a record year and a lot we see a lot 397 00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:33,720 Speaker 1: of negativity in the press or we have in the 398 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 1: last few years around the USCV market. So what gives there? 399 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,399 Speaker 2: I guess I'll just start by maybe I'll give the 400 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:42,920 Speaker 2: policy piece for just a second, which is, you know, 401 00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:47,880 Speaker 2: in essence to kind of oversimplify things. In twenty twenty five, 402 00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:52,719 Speaker 2: the US federal government pretty much eliminated all the major 403 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:57,560 Speaker 2: supports for the purchase of electric vehicles, the number one 404 00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:02,240 Speaker 2: one being the seventy five hundred dollars per vehicle tax 405 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:06,040 Speaker 2: credit the consumers were receiving for each car that they bought. 406 00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:10,800 Speaker 2: But they also essentially declawed the corporate average fuel economy 407 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:15,159 Speaker 2: standards so that car makers that violated those standards by 408 00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:18,800 Speaker 2: selling too many higher emission vehicles did not have to 409 00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:21,760 Speaker 2: pay penalties. So essentially the incentives there to green their 410 00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 2: fleet all but disappeared. There were some incentives still left 411 00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:29,440 Speaker 2: in place for the manufacture and production of evs and 412 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,520 Speaker 2: for the equipment that goes into evs, but essentially the 413 00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:36,440 Speaker 2: kind of demand side policies basically all but disappeared in 414 00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:39,160 Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. And maybe I'll hand it to tune 415 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:40,600 Speaker 2: in to talk about sales a little bit. 416 00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:44,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually wanted to add on from the policy perspective. 417 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:47,440 Speaker 3: Something else that flows through to the demand side into 418 00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:52,000 Speaker 3: prices is tariffs and how that gets passed on to 419 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:55,119 Speaker 3: the consumer, and tariffs is a broader story. But for 420 00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:58,560 Speaker 3: EV's in particular, one thing I'll know is that EV 421 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:02,840 Speaker 3: batteries will tear were fairly high throughout twenty twenty five. 422 00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:07,760 Speaker 3: They were actually relatively stable, particularly compared to non EV 423 00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:11,760 Speaker 3: stationary storage batteries, and so that at least allowed a 424 00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:16,720 Speaker 3: little bit of predictability and ability to plan around the 425 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 3: costs of teriffs for imports. About thirty five percent of 426 00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:23,760 Speaker 3: the EV sold two years ago, so when we last 427 00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:26,399 Speaker 3: had data in twenty twenty four, prior to those new 428 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:30,800 Speaker 3: terrats about thirty five percent were manufactured abroad, So that 429 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:36,119 Speaker 3: impact of trade policy definitely is relevant for evs. But 430 00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:38,280 Speaker 3: in terms of the actual sales numbers, I kind of 431 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,120 Speaker 3: alluded to this earlier, but sales spiked in the third 432 00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:44,119 Speaker 3: quarter just prior to the elimination of the tax credit. 433 00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:46,840 Speaker 3: So in terms of thousands of vehicles sold in the 434 00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:50,920 Speaker 3: third quarter, we reached over five hundred thousand. That plummeted 435 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:54,280 Speaker 3: in the fourth quarter. So immediately after consumers saw that 436 00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:58,679 Speaker 3: demand incentive disappear, sales went down to about three hundred 437 00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 3: thousand in the fourth quarter. So that kind of process 438 00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:06,960 Speaker 3: of folks planning around the incentives. We saw that happen 439 00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:09,640 Speaker 3: with the evs first, and I think we can also 440 00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:12,040 Speaker 3: take that as a signal for what might happen in 441 00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:15,680 Speaker 3: other sectors as the tax credits start to pull back. 442 00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:19,240 Speaker 1: I mean, it's a classic trend you see with policy changes, 443 00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:23,240 Speaker 1: is a lot of investment or purchases getting brought forward, 444 00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:25,960 Speaker 1: and so then there's a dip straight after. And that's 445 00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:28,520 Speaker 1: partly because the incentive is gone, but also partly because 446 00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:31,240 Speaker 1: some stuff that would have been getting brought then comes earlier. 447 00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:36,040 Speaker 1: I kind of want to just understand for the electric 448 00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:39,840 Speaker 1: vehicles in the US. It's not just like one policy 449 00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:43,399 Speaker 1: to rule them all. It's like there's a complex intersection 450 00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:45,879 Speaker 1: of policies here, and I really want to understand the 451 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:49,439 Speaker 1: implications of all of it and how it fits together. 452 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:53,200 Speaker 1: So Ethan mentioned the fuel economy standards being rolled back, 453 00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:59,680 Speaker 1: which disincentivizes automakers too. I suppose manufacturing cellvs. There's the 454 00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:03,960 Speaker 1: egg spirery of the tax credit that disincentivizes consumers to 455 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:07,000 Speaker 1: buy evs. Doesn't mean that automakers can't sell them. It 456 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:08,680 Speaker 1: doesn't mean that nobody will want to buy them, but 457 00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:11,040 Speaker 1: there's just, you know, financially, some of the incentive has 458 00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:14,879 Speaker 1: gone away. If I understand correctly. This point around tariffs, 459 00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:17,359 Speaker 1: I want to make sure I understand it correctly. So 460 00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,880 Speaker 1: you're talking about tariffs not on foreign EV's. You're talking 461 00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:26,400 Speaker 1: about tariffs on foreign EV batteries. So does that stemy 462 00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:31,320 Speaker 1: US EV manufacturing more than it's Stemy's foreign EV manufacturing, 463 00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:36,280 Speaker 1: or does that tariff also apply to electric vehicles manufactured 464 00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:38,119 Speaker 1: and brought in from abroad. I just want to make 465 00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,320 Speaker 1: sure we're clear on how that changes the picture. 466 00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:42,639 Speaker 3: I think that's a nice way of saying that I 467 00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:47,360 Speaker 3: looped together two different things. Both are important, So one 468 00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:51,760 Speaker 3: would be the components, and chief among them the batteries 469 00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,760 Speaker 3: for evs and the tariffs applied to those batteries, and 470 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:59,600 Speaker 3: then also the tariffs on manufactured vehicles themselves, which are 471 00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 3: also irrelevant. 472 00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:02,840 Speaker 2: So yeah, the time I think you're kind of getting 473 00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:05,560 Speaker 2: it to there's two couple of things. There's the tariffs 474 00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:08,359 Speaker 2: on the batteries and then there's terraffs on the final 475 00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:13,360 Speaker 2: finished vehicles overall, and under the Biden administration, the administration 476 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:17,679 Speaker 2: put in place one hundred percent tariffs essentially on Chinese 477 00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:21,520 Speaker 2: made electric vehicles, and those have stayed on the books 478 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:25,800 Speaker 2: and the de facto were intended to essentially keep Chinese 479 00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:27,919 Speaker 2: evs out of the United States, and they have been 480 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,840 Speaker 2: successful in that regard, and as a result, you know, 481 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,639 Speaker 2: we haven't seen the kind of downward pressure, you know, 482 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:37,520 Speaker 2: minus subsidies on evs that they've seen in some other 483 00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:41,679 Speaker 2: markets around the world, and we haven't seen. You basically 484 00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:43,800 Speaker 2: don't see any Chinese evs. You don't see me at 485 00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:45,680 Speaker 2: all on the roads in the United States, but you 486 00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:49,359 Speaker 2: see plenty of them in places like Brazil or parts 487 00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:52,600 Speaker 2: of Europe where there are not such strong tariffs. 488 00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:57,040 Speaker 1: So what you're saying is there's no way to really 489 00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:02,040 Speaker 1: harm sort of foreign manufactured imports coming to the US 490 00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:05,520 Speaker 1: because they were already non existent under the Biden administration. 491 00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,960 Speaker 1: So that's not really a dynamic that could ever be 492 00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:12,320 Speaker 1: more bearish than it already was. So it's really the 493 00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,760 Speaker 1: only thing that's really changing is the ability of US 494 00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,040 Speaker 1: based EV manufacturing. 495 00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:21,320 Speaker 2: Has made it. There are certainly less incentives for consumers 496 00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:25,720 Speaker 2: to buy them, there's less pressure on manufacturers in the 497 00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:30,680 Speaker 2: United States to produce them. There remains incentives for them 498 00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,880 Speaker 2: to manufacture them under the tax code, the forty five 499 00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:37,920 Speaker 2: X tax credit. But the other thing we've certainly seen 500 00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:40,880 Speaker 2: are a number of announcements from the automakers that they 501 00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:45,600 Speaker 2: are less committed to wanting to manufacture evs. So I 502 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:48,520 Speaker 2: think your point about them having the option still if 503 00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:51,000 Speaker 2: they see there to be a market that's certainly valid. 504 00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:53,320 Speaker 2: It's just a number of them have made the determination 505 00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:55,920 Speaker 2: that they don't see the market and they are scaling 506 00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:58,480 Speaker 2: back some of their ambitions to manufacture vs. 507 00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:04,359 Speaker 1: So prey critical moment in time for the US auto 508 00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,520 Speaker 1: industry as it relates to electric vehicles. I think that's 509 00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:08,240 Speaker 1: fair to say. 510 00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:10,679 Speaker 2: Well, it seems clear that there's been a real pivot 511 00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 2: on this in terms of again not most of the 512 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:16,960 Speaker 2: manufacturers sort of making different statements now about what their 513 00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:19,720 Speaker 2: intentions are in this space. I do think and this 514 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,560 Speaker 2: is not a fact, but again we're getting into the 515 00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:26,359 Speaker 2: realm of speculation. But President Trump said something fairly surprising 516 00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:32,240 Speaker 2: in January where he expressed an openness to having Chinese 517 00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:37,040 Speaker 2: automakers have manufacturing plants in the United States. It was 518 00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:39,440 Speaker 2: really the first time at least I could recall hearing 519 00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:42,080 Speaker 2: him say that, and he is due to go to China, 520 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:46,399 Speaker 2: so it'll be interesting to see how that develops. The 521 00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:49,280 Speaker 2: Chinese automakers in other parts of the world are moving 522 00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:53,000 Speaker 2: quickly to either form joint ventures or to just put 523 00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:56,440 Speaker 2: plants entirely on their own into places like Hungary and 524 00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:59,840 Speaker 2: Brazil to serve the local markets. And you know, it's 525 00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:02,320 Speaker 2: at least worth a little speculation in that. You know, 526 00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:05,600 Speaker 2: once upon a time, the US automakers in US policy 527 00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:09,560 Speaker 2: makers felt very threatened by Japanese automakers, and then eventually 528 00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:12,879 Speaker 2: Japanese automakers opened a number of manufacturing plants in the 529 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,280 Speaker 2: United States and created a number of jobs here. So 530 00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:17,600 Speaker 2: I guess all I could say on this is sort 531 00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:18,440 Speaker 2: of watch this space. 532 00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:23,960 Speaker 1: That's interesting. And you know, this idea that Chinese EV 533 00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:27,680 Speaker 1: makers might start manufacturing the US in order to serve 534 00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,960 Speaker 1: the US market, I mean, you gave countless examples. It's 535 00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:33,639 Speaker 1: not a crazy idea, because that is what has happened 536 00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:36,760 Speaker 1: in the past with conventional vehicles, not necessarily from China. 537 00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:38,720 Speaker 1: But I think also, I mean we've back in the 538 00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,640 Speaker 1: midst of time. I remember having a podcast conversation about 539 00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:44,200 Speaker 1: a very similar set of policies in the EU, and 540 00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:47,920 Speaker 1: you mentioned Hungary to encourage Chinese even I was either 541 00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:51,480 Speaker 1: battery or EV manufacturing to be located in Europe. So 542 00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:55,120 Speaker 1: this is not an outlandish idea that what you're suggesting 543 00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:56,960 Speaker 1: may come to pass. But yeah, I guess it gives 544 00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:59,480 Speaker 1: us a reason to see what we're saying about this 545 00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:02,320 Speaker 1: in a year's time when we're talking about the twenty 546 00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:06,040 Speaker 1: twenty seven Sustainable Energy America in America factbook. 547 00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:08,320 Speaker 2: Yeah. By the way, I wouldn't consider what I just 548 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:12,040 Speaker 2: said a prediction, just to be clear, because again, you know, 549 00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:16,240 Speaker 2: in Washington, there is a lot of opposition to Chinese 550 00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:22,080 Speaker 2: manufacturing the automakers in the United States remain politically powerful forces, 551 00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:25,440 Speaker 2: and so you know, it could very well be that 552 00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:29,680 Speaker 2: they and politicians and voters are not receptive to anything 553 00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:30,760 Speaker 2: I just suggested. 554 00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:34,520 Speaker 1: I love that, Ethan, you should never be a politician, 555 00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:36,640 Speaker 1: you know, with a statement like I'm not sure that 556 00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:40,520 Speaker 1: politicians or voters would ever be receptive to anything I'm saying. 557 00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:47,000 Speaker 1: Let's do one last round of did. 558 00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:48,400 Speaker 3: You know my favorite game? 559 00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,600 Speaker 1: Your favorite game? Did you know a day on Venus 560 00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:53,400 Speaker 1: is longer than a year on Venus? 561 00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:57,960 Speaker 2: Did you know the cumula of US renewable capacity reached 562 00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:01,480 Speaker 2: five hundred and forty two gig watts in twenty twenty five, 563 00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:03,320 Speaker 2: which was up twelve percent. 564 00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:06,000 Speaker 1: Year on year. Interesting? But did you know that sea 565 00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:08,800 Speaker 1: otters hold hands while they sleep so they don't drift apar? 566 00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:16,440 Speaker 3: They're so cute. Did you know that lithium ion battery 567 00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:19,880 Speaker 3: manufacturing capacity in the US jumped fifty six percent in 568 00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:22,680 Speaker 3: twenty twenty five alone, reaching two hundred and ninety five 569 00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:24,040 Speaker 3: gigawa hours per year? 570 00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:25,520 Speaker 1: That is interesting. 571 00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,800 Speaker 2: Did you know that US debt financing for the Energy 572 00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:32,880 Speaker 2: Transition grew fifteen percent year on year to reach two 573 00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,840 Speaker 2: hundred and ninety five billion dollars in twenty twenty five. 574 00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:38,040 Speaker 1: It's interesting some of go did you know facts? There 575 00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:41,920 Speaker 1: are really positive signals for the energy transition. I know 576 00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,960 Speaker 1: that after a few years of sort of maybe it 577 00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:47,480 Speaker 1: feeling like a bit of a victory parade when we 578 00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:49,320 Speaker 1: were doing the BCS fact book, I remember when the 579 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:52,440 Speaker 1: Inflation Reduction Act passed. It's a lot more complex picture here, 580 00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:56,240 Speaker 1: but there are still some really positive signals in amongst everything. So, 581 00:30:56,520 --> 00:31:01,560 Speaker 1: stepping back, what defines the US energy story entering twenty 582 00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:02,160 Speaker 1: twenty six? 583 00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:05,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I would say one of the lines 584 00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:08,880 Speaker 3: that I often use thematically as I'm talking about this 585 00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:12,320 Speaker 3: fact book and in effect kind of answering that question, 586 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:15,440 Speaker 3: is I say clean energy held its ground in twenty 587 00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:20,920 Speaker 3: twenty five. It wasn't necessarily a massive growth story, but 588 00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:24,160 Speaker 3: I think given all of the turbulence, really what this 589 00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:28,080 Speaker 3: industry has shown is more kind of robustness and resilience 590 00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:32,160 Speaker 3: than we ever saw before. These are now, especially when 591 00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:36,280 Speaker 3: we're talking about like winded solar, these are established industries 592 00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:38,760 Speaker 3: in a way that we might not have said even 593 00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:43,080 Speaker 3: five ten years ago. In many circumstances, in many markets, 594 00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:47,720 Speaker 3: wind and solar are now cost competitive with fossil fuels, 595 00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:51,440 Speaker 3: certainly with coal, which is now extremely expensive, but also 596 00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:56,720 Speaker 3: with gas and so on kind of a core economics level, unsubsidized. 597 00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:59,760 Speaker 3: Even taking out some of this policy back and forth, 598 00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:03,960 Speaker 3: renewables now are just competitive and can sometimes be the 599 00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:07,440 Speaker 3: cheapest and the fastest to build. So I think some 600 00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:10,440 Speaker 3: of the kind of fundamentals are now so much stronger 601 00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:13,520 Speaker 3: that even though there's been a bit of whiplash from 602 00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:17,800 Speaker 3: the policy perspective on these industries kind of remain strong. 603 00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:20,239 Speaker 2: I would add, I think that's really well put. I mean, 604 00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:23,360 Speaker 2: I think that if we think back on last year, 605 00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:26,640 Speaker 2: it was a year of sort of in many ways 606 00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,440 Speaker 2: when we think from renewables in particular, it was almost 607 00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:32,920 Speaker 2: the worst possible scenario in terms of, you know what, 608 00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:36,960 Speaker 2: the major policy damage that was done through the One 609 00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:40,400 Speaker 2: Big Beautiful Bill Act and through other measures. But the 610 00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:43,360 Speaker 2: withdrawal of some of those supports really came at what 611 00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:46,600 Speaker 2: is arguably one of the best possible times for the 612 00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:49,640 Speaker 2: industry in the fact that, well, first the Street of 613 00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:52,760 Speaker 2: points out, the technology costs have come way down, and 614 00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:56,960 Speaker 2: so these texts really are cost competitive in many parts 615 00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:58,840 Speaker 2: of the US, not everywhere, to be clear, but many 616 00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:01,320 Speaker 2: parts of the US. And the second major trend is 617 00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:04,720 Speaker 2: just demand is growing for electricity in a way that 618 00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:07,880 Speaker 2: we really haven't seen in twenty years, and so that 619 00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:11,800 Speaker 2: rising tide has the potential to lift all boats and 620 00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:14,200 Speaker 2: just to kind of torment this metaphor a little bit, 621 00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:16,520 Speaker 2: as Trina alludes to it. If you're one of the 622 00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:20,160 Speaker 2: boats with greater lift or floatation devices on it, you're 623 00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:23,120 Speaker 2: going to get lifted first. And that's what's happening now 624 00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:25,640 Speaker 2: because the reality of it is that if you are 625 00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:29,160 Speaker 2: desperate to add another gigo out of new capacity to 626 00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,720 Speaker 2: power your data center, you need it from where you 627 00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:36,560 Speaker 2: can get it soonest, and that tends to be solar 628 00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:41,120 Speaker 2: plus storage or solar and wind plus storage. That's sort 629 00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:45,040 Speaker 2: of your short term game plan. Medium to long term, 630 00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:48,600 Speaker 2: you're talking a lot more about gas and there's definitely 631 00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:50,880 Speaker 2: a lot of plans like that on the books. And 632 00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:54,160 Speaker 2: then longer term as well, we're hearing a lot more 633 00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:58,080 Speaker 2: about new nuclear and about some of the new geothermal 634 00:33:58,160 --> 00:33:59,160 Speaker 2: technologies as well. 635 00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:03,240 Speaker 1: It's really I think the points you're making are so 636 00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:06,920 Speaker 1: interesting about this robustness about maybe there was never a 637 00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:09,440 Speaker 1: better time for wind and sola to lose some of 638 00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:12,160 Speaker 1: their policy support, or the energy transition generally kind of 639 00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:14,760 Speaker 1: reminds you know, what is the point even of providing 640 00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:18,799 Speaker 1: policy support to industries. It's to foster them so they 641 00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:21,600 Speaker 1: can grow up to a point to meet future needs 642 00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:25,640 Speaker 1: and maybe even if it's not as clean, and maybe 643 00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:28,800 Speaker 1: if it's not reducing emissions in the way that perhaps 644 00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:32,560 Speaker 1: the original people who conceive these policies expected. We are 645 00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:36,399 Speaker 1: in that moment is that these technologies are maybeing being 646 00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:38,920 Speaker 1: forced to fly the nest, and what we're seeing is 647 00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:41,440 Speaker 1: that they do actually have wings and they can fly 648 00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:44,480 Speaker 1: on their own. It's not necessarily easy or pretty, but 649 00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:48,440 Speaker 1: there is a lot to be optimistic about in those spaces, 650 00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:52,040 Speaker 1: and now is a very interesting moment to see how 651 00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:53,279 Speaker 1: they do our in the wild. 652 00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:56,800 Speaker 3: I think that feels right to me for our solar 653 00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:58,680 Speaker 3: and wind and kind of the industries we consider it 654 00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:01,640 Speaker 3: to be more mature, but particularly for some of the 655 00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:04,200 Speaker 3: solutions that I think we will need to see build 656 00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:09,160 Speaker 3: out from a decarbonization perspective, so carbon capture also kind 657 00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:12,920 Speaker 3: of advanced nuclear. Some of these technologies are still very expensive, 658 00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:16,960 Speaker 3: and what you're talking about in terms of policy helping 659 00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:20,600 Speaker 3: to get these technologies off the ground and reduce costs 660 00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:23,440 Speaker 3: over time. I think we probably still do need to 661 00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:26,440 Speaker 3: see some support for those earlier stage technologies. 662 00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:30,879 Speaker 1: Thank you Ethan and Trina for today. This is such 663 00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:35,280 Speaker 1: an interesting moment in the US energy transition space. Generally, 664 00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:38,719 Speaker 1: the picture has changed so much, is changing its dynamic. 665 00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:41,640 Speaker 1: We're learning new things as we go. I learned a 666 00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:44,000 Speaker 1: lot of facts today, thank you. I know we didn't 667 00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:45,760 Speaker 1: dive into all of them, and I hope my facts 668 00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:49,480 Speaker 1: were interesting as well, maybe less on topic. So Trina, 669 00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:52,160 Speaker 1: thank you very much for joining the podcast. 670 00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:56,320 Speaker 3: Thank you so much, and I particularly appreciated the odder fact. 671 00:35:57,239 --> 00:36:00,440 Speaker 1: Save the best to last. Ethan, Yeah, thank you so much. 672 00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:01,279 Speaker 1: You beat me to it. 673 00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:02,560 Speaker 2: Tuna, thanks for the oters. 674 00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:04,839 Speaker 1: Thank you, and also just want to give a shout 675 00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:09,120 Speaker 1: out to Lisa Jacobson and everyone at the BCSE who 676 00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:12,279 Speaker 1: are just always such great partners to work with on this, 677 00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:15,320 Speaker 1: and also to Lara Cammon who was integral to the 678 00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:17,319 Speaker 1: project on the BNF side this year. 679 00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:29,319 Speaker 4: Today's episode of Switched On was produced by cam Gray 680 00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:33,239 Speaker 4: with production assistants from Kamala Shelling. Bloomberg NIF is a 681 00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:36,400 Speaker 4: service provided by Bloomberg Finance LP. And its affiliates. This 682 00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:39,200 Speaker 4: recording does not constitute, nor should it be construed, as 683 00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:42,960 Speaker 4: investment a vice, investment recommendations, or a recommendation as to 684 00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:45,840 Speaker 4: an investment or other strategy. Bloomberg anif should not be 685 00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:49,680 Speaker 4: considered as information sufficient upon which to base an investment decision. 686 00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:52,799 Speaker 4: Neither Bloomberg Finance LP nor any of its affiliates makes 687 00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:56,520 Speaker 4: any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness 688 00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:59,520 Speaker 4: of the information contained in this recording, and any liability 689 00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:02,239 Speaker 4: as a result belt of this recording is expressly disclaimed. 690 00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:11,279 Speaker 3: M