WEBVTT - GM to Join Tesla’s EV Charging Network

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebek from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>We've been talking a lot about Tesla today with good reason.

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<v Speaker 2>Stocks still oh man, it's not one hundred percent anymore.

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<v Speaker 2>It's ninety eight point three three percent the gains this year.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh you know, should should we not talk about it?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, it's still off, you well, off of its highs

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<v Speaker 3>from twenty twenty one.

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<v Speaker 2>That's a really good point some perspective. But it's been

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<v Speaker 2>on a tear this year and it's on track for

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<v Speaker 2>its record eleventh consecutive session of gains. So it's also

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<v Speaker 2>a longtime favorite among retail traders. So let's get into

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<v Speaker 2>it because there's been some new, some fundamental just following

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<v Speaker 2>on the heels of GM saying it's going to tap

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<v Speaker 2>into Tesla's EV charging network, following also after Ford did

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<v Speaker 2>the same thing. So let's get to it with David Welsh,

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg News Detroit bureau chief. He is on the phone

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<v Speaker 2>from Detroit. David Great to have you here with Matt

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<v Speaker 2>and myself. So now it looks like, what three billion

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<v Speaker 2>that Tesla stands to gain by twenty thirty because of

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<v Speaker 2>these deals with Ford and GM. How big a nut

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<v Speaker 2>is that When you look at the revenue picture for Tesla.

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<v Speaker 4>At the end of the day, it's not huge revenue.

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<v Speaker 4>I just think it's to me, it's interesting because you

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<v Speaker 4>look over the past five years and they've made over

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<v Speaker 4>five billion selling regulatory credits to the legacy automakers who

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<v Speaker 4>need to meet clean air standards and don't have enough

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<v Speaker 4>electric vehicles to do it. So Tesla just you know,

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<v Speaker 4>three billion dollars by twenty thirty. You know, their revenue

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<v Speaker 4>is over eighty billion a year now, They're probably much

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<v Speaker 4>greater by then, So it's you know, it's a few

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<v Speaker 4>percentage points. It's not massive for a growth company like this,

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<v Speaker 4>But to me, it just stands out that they keep

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<v Speaker 4>making money. They making money off their competitors. It's great

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<v Speaker 4>because they have such a lead in electrification that their

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<v Speaker 4>competitors keep giving them ways to either money or direct

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<v Speaker 4>or ways to make money to fund their new products

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<v Speaker 4>while they're trying to catch up.

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<v Speaker 3>The Tesla in the first place, So I have so

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<v Speaker 3>many questions. I'm glad you could join us, David. Isn't

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<v Speaker 3>this really cool in that it creates an industry standard?

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<v Speaker 3>Or is it global or is it just the US?

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<v Speaker 4>Right now, it's just us. We'll see what happens globally

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<v Speaker 4>and the thing, I think it'll stretch to Canada as well.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, there are Chinese automakers. I think they've got

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<v Speaker 4>their own standard over there, but Tesla does sell evs

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<v Speaker 4>in that market. I'm not totally sure what the confluence

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<v Speaker 4>of a different standard is over there. But US market,

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<v Speaker 4>it is very cool that we're getting one standard, because honestly,

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<v Speaker 4>it was kind of dumb that we had more than one. Stupid.

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<v Speaker 2>It's like Beta max versus VHS, like right, remember.

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<v Speaker 4>The old Yeah, that's a classic business case, you know.

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<v Speaker 4>And for that matter, the days when and I was

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<v Speaker 4>I was an Apple geek in the early days, when

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<v Speaker 4>you know, you started losing certain programs because it wasn't

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<v Speaker 4>compatible with Windows or Microsoft products. Eventually, I think Steve

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<v Speaker 4>Jobs caved and bridge the gap, but for a while,

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<v Speaker 4>if you had Apple stuff, you couldn't use certain things.

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<v Speaker 3>So speaking of caving, is Delantis next because I'm looking

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<v Speaker 3>forward to Dodge is going to make a charger EV

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<v Speaker 3>that is just going to be insane. Is that going

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<v Speaker 3>to have a Tesla style charging port?

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<v Speaker 4>I bet it will. I mean, I think everybody has

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<v Speaker 4>to cave at this point. You're talking about the number one,

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<v Speaker 4>two and three companies and EV sales in the US.

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<v Speaker 4>I think Toyota will have to as well. And I

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<v Speaker 4>think everyone is going to have to follow and do this.

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<v Speaker 4>And so it's not they're talking about an adapter to

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<v Speaker 4>begin with and then eventually just making a you know,

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<v Speaker 4>putting a Tesla inlet port in the vehicle. It's not

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<v Speaker 4>a radical change for anybody. It's you know, it's not

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<v Speaker 4>like they're you know, going from you know, a gasoline

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<v Speaker 4>engine to a jet engine in the car. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>this is this is a plug.

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<v Speaker 2>But it creates, like you know, I said to we

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<v Speaker 2>were talking earlier, you know, whether you're like Elon must

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<v Speaker 2>or not. I mean, you can be kind of cookie.

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<v Speaker 2>But having said that, is it just the possibility though,

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<v Speaker 2>of creating a significant, even more revenue stream for this company.

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<v Speaker 2>And we talked about three billion, but could it even

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<v Speaker 2>be more in the future.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, so the forecast I used from percent and other

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<v Speaker 4>analysts had forecasts out there kind of some were more

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<v Speaker 4>similar to less but directionally similar. And I think Sandlers

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<v Speaker 4>Piper Sanders forecast is looking at not just for GM

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<v Speaker 4>but basically everybody going this way. And I think now

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<v Speaker 4>that doesn't happen, everybody's going to have to eventually well,

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<v Speaker 4>I think connects shoot to drop here that could actually

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<v Speaker 4>reduce the amount of revenue growth Tesla gets have. This

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<v Speaker 4>is I think all you know, this patchwork quilp of

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<v Speaker 4>multiple EV charging players that are out there that GM,

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<v Speaker 4>Ford and everybody else has partnerships with, they're going to

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<v Speaker 4>have to adopt Tesla's standards unbelievable and a CS and

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<v Speaker 4>and when that happens, then consumers will be able to

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<v Speaker 4>use other networks that aren't Tesla's but using the Tesla chargeboard.

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<v Speaker 4>But you know there's an interim here and you know

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<v Speaker 4>medium long term where Tesla's going to be making money

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<v Speaker 4>off of this on they're dedicated chargers and they could

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<v Speaker 4>they could for a very long time to come actually,

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<v Speaker 4>because if you're driving around and your car can use

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<v Speaker 4>a charge point charger anywhere you see a Tesla and

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<v Speaker 4>that's open, you're going to take it and it's more

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<v Speaker 4>reliable too.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, exactly, good stuff, as always, the ever evolving world

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<v Speaker 2>of Tesla and Elon Musk. David Welch, Detroit Buro, chief

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<v Speaker 2>of Bloomberg News, on the phone from Detroit. Really appreciate it, David,

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<v Speaker 2>have a.

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<v Speaker 4>Good thanks, David.

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<v Speaker 5>How do you?

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<v Speaker 3>How are you?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean we talked about this a little bit yesterday, right,

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<v Speaker 2>and just what this move? You were you were kind

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<v Speaker 2>of like blown away.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think it's very cool because it creates I

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<v Speaker 3>always applaud kind of universal standards, even when they're not

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<v Speaker 3>necessarily the best choice. For example, VHS, probably the technology

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<v Speaker 3>wasn't as good as beta. For those of you old

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<v Speaker 3>enough to remember what beta was.

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<v Speaker 2>Pretty incredible, Yeah, or there was three quarter. Remember there's

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<v Speaker 2>beta and time.

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<v Speaker 3>I remember all of them. But it doesn't matter. The

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<v Speaker 3>point is when you get a universal standard, then the

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<v Speaker 3>industry grows much faster. So for me, that's the exciting

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<v Speaker 3>point about this. You know, we're already expecting eighteen percent growth,

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<v Speaker 3>near to a fifth of all car sales globally this

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<v Speaker 3>year are going to be EV's So this is just

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<v Speaker 3>going to accelerate that transition, which is exciting and also

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<v Speaker 3>in some ways of concern, right because our grid maybe

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<v Speaker 3>can't handle it if we had that many evs.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, we found that yesterday, right, all the conversations we

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<v Speaker 2>had about the energy markets and you know how old

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<v Speaker 2>our grid is not a news story everybody, but it

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<v Speaker 2>just seems like we talk about it, talk about the

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<v Speaker 2>importance of infrastructure, you know, investing, whether it's energy or

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<v Speaker 2>whether it's like ev you know, charging areas, and we

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<v Speaker 2>just kind of forget to do it. And so in

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<v Speaker 2>this case you've got a private sector company doing it.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm very pumped also about the next generation of evs

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<v Speaker 3>because I think it'll be the first generation of evs

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<v Speaker 3>from other automakers that are really from bottom up designed

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<v Speaker 3>to be electric vehicles. So no longer just ICEE E

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<v Speaker 3>vehicles that the company put a battery. ICEE an internal

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<v Speaker 3>combustion engine, got it. So no longer just gas burning

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<v Speaker 3>vehicles that used to have an engine that may just

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<v Speaker 3>put a battery in. So they're designed, purpose built to

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<v Speaker 3>be EV's and they're going to be not only much

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<v Speaker 3>better in terms of everything from range to handling to performance.

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<v Speaker 2>Which is what the what Tesla is, right, Yeah, for sure,

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<v Speaker 2>but they're also.

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<v Speaker 3>Going to be much more affordable, which is what I'm

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<v Speaker 3>looking forward to, because you know, you go out there

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<v Speaker 3>in the market right now crazy and you see vehicles

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<v Speaker 3>like the BMW I X is really cool, but it's

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<v Speaker 3>ninety thousand dollars to start. Now you're starting to see

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<v Speaker 3>real competition. I'm driving right now a Nissan Ariyah I

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<v Speaker 3>think it's called a r I y am test driving it,

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<v Speaker 3>and it's unbelievably cool. It's elegant in its design, it's fast,

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<v Speaker 3>it handles well, it's fun to drive, and it's affordable.

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<v Speaker 3>It's like starts at forty five grand or so.

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<v Speaker 2>So kind of like the idea of when Prius was

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<v Speaker 2>first you know, created as a hybrid, was it thought

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<v Speaker 2>about as from the ground up?

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<v Speaker 1>Uh?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, that was I'm sure thought about as a Yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>a ground up hybrid vehicle for sure, because if you

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<v Speaker 3>look at and Teslas, you're right, we're ground up, designed

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<v Speaker 3>to be ev EVS after the roadster, because remember the

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<v Speaker 3>roadster they first used was actually a I think a

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<v Speaker 3>Lotus or an Opal body and they put a battery

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<v Speaker 3>in it.

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<v Speaker 2>This is why we love having you around. You kind

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<v Speaker 2>of know a few things I know if.

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<v Speaker 3>You you know your you know a few things too.

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<v Speaker 2>No, but I'm with you. I'm looking at the prices

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<v Speaker 2>on things and I'm like, what happened? Am my two spans?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, this is how do you make this a

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<v Speaker 2>mass market car? If we're supposed to ramp up to

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<v Speaker 2>hit certain nut coming? All right, I'm going to hold

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<v Speaker 2>my breath and I can't wait.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

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<v Speaker 2>We know a lot of news on crypto this week,

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<v Speaker 2>To say the least, Matt us really feel like it's

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<v Speaker 2>being thrown into deeper array. You had also Binance today,

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<v Speaker 2>Banking partners getting ready to rescind support liquidity drawing up

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<v Speaker 2>traders withdrawing tokens from the platform as regulators are clamping

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<v Speaker 2>down on the company and its owner. So it's been

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<v Speaker 2>a week full of some really tough news for the

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<v Speaker 2>crypto universe.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>Absolutely. The Coinbase move probably felt more by US investors,

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<v Speaker 3>obviously because it's publicly traded here, But ban is the

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<v Speaker 3>big cat in this industry, and if it starts to

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<v Speaker 3>lose I guess scale, that's a problem for advancement in

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<v Speaker 3>this in crypto.

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<v Speaker 2>It does wonder about kind of the latest stress points

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<v Speaker 2>and the viability of the US crypto industry industry. So

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<v Speaker 2>let's get into it with solidus Labs Vice President of

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<v Speaker 2>Regulatory Affairs Kathy Kreninger, also former director of the Consumer

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<v Speaker 2>Protection Financial Bureau, joining us via zoom from Washington, d C.

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<v Speaker 2>Once again, sold us is a crypto market surveillance and

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<v Speaker 2>risk monitoring platform. Just for those of you not in

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<v Speaker 2>the know. Kathy, good to have you back with us.

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<v Speaker 2>Your gut take on the news this week and what

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<v Speaker 2>it means for the US crypto industry.

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<v Speaker 6>Well, you said it here too.

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<v Speaker 5>It is quite a week when you thought the news

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<v Speaker 5>couldn't get any bigger. We find ourselves continually on a

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<v Speaker 5>roller coaster with this industry and unfortunately, particularly in the US.

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<v Speaker 5>Look I said it before, agencies should go after bad actors.

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<v Speaker 6>That's exactly what you want to see happen. So there

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<v Speaker 6>are certainly some.

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<v Speaker 5>Allegations that finance needs to address and having that out

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<v Speaker 5>in the open, frankly gives them the opportunity to do that.

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<v Speaker 6>No surprise.

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<v Speaker 5>The SEC has been engaging in investigations into a number

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<v Speaker 5>of platforms and operators in the crypto space now for

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<v Speaker 5>quite some time. So having the cases out there and

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<v Speaker 5>in the open matters the other side, as you mentioned,

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<v Speaker 5>with the coinbase, they're two very different cases.

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<v Speaker 3>So what let's focus in on Coinbase in terms of

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<v Speaker 3>what they can do well. Really, the similarity I think

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<v Speaker 3>between the two is compliance is almost impossible for crypto businesses,

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<v Speaker 3>or that's what they tell us. Is that true? You know,

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<v Speaker 3>because we hear Gensler say all we want you to

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<v Speaker 3>do is come into compliance, and these crypto businesses say,

0:11:58.760 --> 0:12:00.920
<v Speaker 3>there's no way for us to do that. We've applied

0:12:00.960 --> 0:12:02.040
<v Speaker 3>and they rejected us.

0:12:04.160 --> 0:12:06.960
<v Speaker 5>There are some real challenges here around the definitions and

0:12:07.000 --> 0:12:07.880
<v Speaker 5>the requirements.

0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:08.800
<v Speaker 6>Definitely so.

0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:12.760
<v Speaker 5>And actually a great hearing on Tuesday that included a

0:12:12.800 --> 0:12:16.239
<v Speaker 5>coin based witness, as Sherman Thompson of the House Agriculture

0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:20.160
<v Speaker 5>Committee noted, highly unusual to have a witness before the

0:12:20.160 --> 0:12:23.560
<v Speaker 5>committee who's now the subject of an enforcement action and

0:12:23.679 --> 0:12:27.160
<v Speaker 5>litigation by an agency, but that that was par for

0:12:27.240 --> 0:12:29.600
<v Speaker 5>the course and why the hearing was so important, and

0:12:29.640 --> 0:12:34.959
<v Speaker 5>the legislation was so important, So it is challenging, no doubt.

0:12:35.040 --> 0:12:42.280
<v Speaker 5>There are very few crypto businesses or special purpose registrations

0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:45.120
<v Speaker 5>that have gone through that are related to crypto and

0:12:45.800 --> 0:12:49.480
<v Speaker 5>part of that has to do with two, you know,

0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:52.760
<v Speaker 5>the business that they are engaged in and the fundamental

0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:57.520
<v Speaker 5>disclosures requirements and registration nuts and bolts that the SEC

0:12:57.679 --> 0:13:01.320
<v Speaker 5>requires that they just simply can not actually comply with.

0:13:01.760 --> 0:13:04.120
<v Speaker 5>Some of it also is related to what the nature

0:13:04.160 --> 0:13:06.920
<v Speaker 5>of these assets are and having that be clear in law.

0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:10.440
<v Speaker 5>Point Base is a publicly traded company. They go through

0:13:10.480 --> 0:13:14.520
<v Speaker 5>a rigorous process that they have outlined repeatedly around their

0:13:14.559 --> 0:13:17.880
<v Speaker 5>assessment of which assets are or are not securities, and

0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:20.439
<v Speaker 5>it is not their intention to list securities, as many

0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:23.760
<v Speaker 5>of the platforms say, so why they would be subject

0:13:23.760 --> 0:13:27.040
<v Speaker 5>to registration is something that again this case now is

0:13:27.080 --> 0:13:29.520
<v Speaker 5>going to really be at the heart of the matter

0:13:29.600 --> 0:13:32.840
<v Speaker 5>of are these assets securities and why and the sec

0:13:32.920 --> 0:13:35.040
<v Speaker 5>actually you know, asserting that and proving that.

0:13:35.080 --> 0:13:37.280
<v Speaker 3>What's your take? By the way, I mean, people always

0:13:37.320 --> 0:13:42.200
<v Speaker 3>talk about the Howie test, and there are some cases

0:13:42.280 --> 0:13:46.160
<v Speaker 3>in which it's very clear, and I think Gary Gensler

0:13:46.200 --> 0:13:49.240
<v Speaker 3>has set himself there some cases in which it's you know,

0:13:49.440 --> 0:13:52.920
<v Speaker 3>bitcoin for example, is is not a security. But in

0:13:52.960 --> 0:13:57.199
<v Speaker 3>a lot of these instances you can debate whether it's

0:13:57.240 --> 0:13:59.040
<v Speaker 3>a security or a commodity.

0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:01.839
<v Speaker 6>You definitely can.

0:14:02.080 --> 0:14:05.160
<v Speaker 5>I mean it comes down to again whether whether there

0:14:05.280 --> 0:14:09.280
<v Speaker 5>is an aspect of decentralization in terms of whether this

0:14:09.520 --> 0:14:13.720
<v Speaker 5>is you know that that group of people that you

0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:16.920
<v Speaker 5>expect to benefit from and reap the rewards of their work,

0:14:17.400 --> 0:14:20.240
<v Speaker 5>uh and their you know, their efforts.

0:14:20.640 --> 0:14:24.000
<v Speaker 6>So that is is one prong of the analysis.

0:14:24.040 --> 0:14:28.560
<v Speaker 5>Certainly under under the Howie test that that gets some attention.

0:14:28.920 --> 0:14:29.040
<v Speaker 4>Uh.

0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:32.560
<v Speaker 5>And and there are certainly things like like bitgoin that

0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:36.280
<v Speaker 5>you would argue is decentralized. I think there is some

0:14:36.360 --> 0:14:40.320
<v Speaker 5>real question too over over what ownership aspect there really

0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:44.360
<v Speaker 5>is and what anyone actually owns and so the the

0:14:44.400 --> 0:14:47.800
<v Speaker 5>other dynamic here in terms of what securities law requires.

0:14:47.880 --> 0:14:49.760
<v Speaker 5>That takes me back to the first question you asked

0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:53.960
<v Speaker 5>and what is important here. It is important for issuers

0:14:54.000 --> 0:14:58.960
<v Speaker 5>and listeners to actually disclose what the asset does.

0:14:58.840 --> 0:15:01.000
<v Speaker 6>What it's intended to do, now it's used, who is

0:15:01.040 --> 0:15:01.560
<v Speaker 6>behind it.

0:15:01.600 --> 0:15:05.200
<v Speaker 5>There are some classic things that again good actors in

0:15:05.240 --> 0:15:08.480
<v Speaker 5>crypto claim they are already doing and meeting so in

0:15:08.520 --> 0:15:12.240
<v Speaker 5>some respects meeting the spirit of that important information and

0:15:12.280 --> 0:15:15.440
<v Speaker 5>getting it to investors, but all the mechanics of registration

0:15:15.560 --> 0:15:18.280
<v Speaker 5>are things that they simply cannot actually meet.

0:15:18.520 --> 0:15:20.920
<v Speaker 2>So, Kathy, you know, we had a conversation Matt and

0:15:20.920 --> 0:15:25.480
<v Speaker 2>I yesterday with former SEC chair j Clayton and Dean

0:15:25.560 --> 0:15:29.240
<v Speaker 2>moorehead also who's very involved in the crypto space, and

0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:30.960
<v Speaker 2>I do wonder one of the points that came up

0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:34.840
<v Speaker 2>is that you do already see sovereign you know, being

0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:40.000
<v Speaker 2>issued based on blockchain technology around the world, and I

0:15:40.080 --> 0:15:42.840
<v Speaker 2>do wonder, you know, as we think about the legitimacy

0:15:42.960 --> 0:15:45.760
<v Speaker 2>of crypto going forward, has kind of the train left

0:15:45.760 --> 0:15:47.680
<v Speaker 2>the station, and so that if the US is not

0:15:47.800 --> 0:15:51.200
<v Speaker 2>on board in terms of figuring out the regulatory framework

0:15:51.240 --> 0:15:54.680
<v Speaker 2>along with other folks in the world, that they will

0:15:54.720 --> 0:15:59.480
<v Speaker 2>be ultimately left behind. Can we make that conclusion if

0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:01.720
<v Speaker 2>they're not in if the US isn't involved US.

0:16:01.680 --> 0:16:05.960
<v Speaker 6>Regulators, Look, I agree with that in part.

0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:09.640
<v Speaker 5>I would say the US markets are such that, you know,

0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:12.600
<v Speaker 5>there will always be an interest by companies serve US markets,

0:16:12.640 --> 0:16:14.440
<v Speaker 5>and that will come back around. I think where it

0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:17.880
<v Speaker 5>really does concern me is the national security dynamics.

0:16:18.240 --> 0:16:22.320
<v Speaker 6>We have benefited from decades and even.

0:16:22.120 --> 0:16:27.200
<v Speaker 5>I suppose more than a century of US innovation setting

0:16:27.240 --> 0:16:30.520
<v Speaker 5>the standard for how the globe operates. We built the

0:16:30.520 --> 0:16:34.080
<v Speaker 5>financial systems of the world, so there is a national

0:16:34.080 --> 0:16:37.960
<v Speaker 5>security benefit to that, the dollar being you know, basically

0:16:38.000 --> 0:16:41.760
<v Speaker 5>the world's currency, that we benefited from that, and the

0:16:41.800 --> 0:16:45.520
<v Speaker 5>notion that we would be absent as the next financial

0:16:45.560 --> 0:16:48.480
<v Speaker 5>system is really being built and that infrastructure is being built.

0:16:48.880 --> 0:16:53.280
<v Speaker 5>That's where we're really I think losing that long term

0:16:53.320 --> 0:16:57.840
<v Speaker 5>competitive advantage and our place in the world's economy and

0:16:58.320 --> 0:17:03.600
<v Speaker 5>then frankly in the global dynamics even politically speaking, and

0:17:03.960 --> 0:17:07.720
<v Speaker 5>from a stability standpoint, in a national security standpoint, So

0:17:07.800 --> 0:17:11.560
<v Speaker 5>that does concern me greatly and I think is hugely

0:17:11.680 --> 0:17:15.439
<v Speaker 5>unfortunate if we if we just concede. The other thing

0:17:15.480 --> 0:17:17.639
<v Speaker 5>I would note that is to different this year is

0:17:17.720 --> 0:17:21.439
<v Speaker 5>really Chair Gensler's statement and attitude when you get to

0:17:22.280 --> 0:17:24.760
<v Speaker 5>you know, what, what is there room for in this

0:17:24.840 --> 0:17:28.960
<v Speaker 5>new economy and his stance that the only digital currencies

0:17:29.000 --> 0:17:31.399
<v Speaker 5>that are necessary are the ones that already exist and

0:17:31.440 --> 0:17:36.040
<v Speaker 5>are issued by governments. You know, that really does undermine

0:17:36.320 --> 0:17:39.919
<v Speaker 5>the potential and opportunity that's here, but some of it

0:17:39.920 --> 0:17:43.919
<v Speaker 5>gets to terminology too. I've not really believed that the

0:17:43.960 --> 0:17:47.600
<v Speaker 5>future of a lot of the tokenization is truly in currency,

0:17:48.640 --> 0:17:52.320
<v Speaker 5>you know, and really replacing sovereign currencies. But there is

0:17:53.000 --> 0:17:57.320
<v Speaker 5>I think a lot with the infrastructure that having you know,

0:17:57.359 --> 0:18:03.240
<v Speaker 5>stable coins and certainly having digital assets is hugely beneficial.

0:18:03.640 --> 0:18:08.000
<v Speaker 3>Is there a do you think there's a consensus feeling

0:18:08.040 --> 0:18:10.119
<v Speaker 3>in Congress about which way we need to go in

0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:11.840
<v Speaker 3>terms of either supporting it or killing it.

0:18:13.840 --> 0:18:16.480
<v Speaker 5>I continue to believe that on both sides of the

0:18:16.480 --> 0:18:19.119
<v Speaker 5>aisle there's a lot of interest in setting this up

0:18:19.119 --> 0:18:22.600
<v Speaker 5>the right way and understanding the potential and having the conversation.

0:18:23.280 --> 0:18:25.160
<v Speaker 6>A lot of concern frankly about.

0:18:24.920 --> 0:18:28.359
<v Speaker 5>The scams and fraud and dynamics around FTX.

0:18:28.440 --> 0:18:30.040
<v Speaker 6>That's completely legitimate.

0:18:30.280 --> 0:18:33.040
<v Speaker 5>I mean, look, whenever any new technology comes into play,

0:18:33.119 --> 0:18:37.040
<v Speaker 5>there are going to be those challenges and that's I

0:18:37.040 --> 0:18:39.760
<v Speaker 5>think hugely unfortunate and where the industry needs to step

0:18:39.840 --> 0:18:43.399
<v Speaker 5>up calling out the bad actors, where agencies should focus

0:18:43.440 --> 0:18:46.280
<v Speaker 5>their energy going after them, but where there are not

0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:51.440
<v Speaker 5>clear rules that good actors can follow. That's really where

0:18:51.480 --> 0:18:55.280
<v Speaker 5>you see the flight that we are. Again, certainly people

0:18:55.320 --> 0:18:58.960
<v Speaker 5>are asserting leaving the US markets, and we're seeing some

0:18:59.000 --> 0:18:59.800
<v Speaker 5>of that itself.

0:18:59.800 --> 0:19:01.400
<v Speaker 6>All right, we got to run.

0:19:01.440 --> 0:19:04.320
<v Speaker 2>Hey, Kathy, thank you, appreciate you waiting weighing in on

0:19:04.359 --> 0:19:07.879
<v Speaker 2>all of this. Kathy Kreninger, vice president of Regulatory Affairs

0:19:08.040 --> 0:19:11.960
<v Speaker 2>at Solidus Labs, former director of the Consumer Protection Financial Bureau,

0:19:12.040 --> 0:19:14.159
<v Speaker 2>joining us on Zoom from Washington, DC. Matt, did you

0:19:14.200 --> 0:19:17.679
<v Speaker 2>see the store about robin hood removing three jokers from

0:19:17.720 --> 0:19:19.280
<v Speaker 2>its crypto trading platform?

0:19:19.320 --> 0:19:20.880
<v Speaker 3>You know, so, I think anyone's going to be doing

0:19:20.880 --> 0:19:23.439
<v Speaker 3>that if they've been defined as a security by the SEC.

0:19:23.480 --> 0:19:24.840
<v Speaker 2>You got to get rid of them, right, They've got

0:19:24.840 --> 0:19:25.720
<v Speaker 2>to be nervous.

0:19:26.520 --> 0:19:30.080
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:19:30.119 --> 0:19:34.240
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0:19:34.320 --> 0:19:37.639
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0:19:37.720 --> 0:19:40.840
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0:19:41.280 --> 0:19:44.040
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0:19:45.560 --> 0:19:47.040
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0:19:47.080 --> 0:19:50.240
<v Speaker 2>and we've got a question ahead of them even joining us.

0:19:51.080 --> 0:19:53.760
<v Speaker 3>A listener writes in with a question before we have

0:19:53.840 --> 0:19:57.040
<v Speaker 3>the guests. That's brilliant. That's a popular is the should

0:19:57.040 --> 0:19:59.560
<v Speaker 3>always do that. It makes our lives so much easier.

0:20:00.000 --> 0:20:02.720
<v Speaker 2>Body listening because please do this, do this anyway, let's

0:20:02.720 --> 0:20:04.800
<v Speaker 2>get right to it. Doctor Ian las Baders with US,

0:20:05.040 --> 0:20:08.000
<v Speaker 2>clinical professor of Medicine at NYU Lango and on Zoom in.

0:20:07.960 --> 0:20:08.600
<v Speaker 3>New York City.

0:20:08.640 --> 0:20:11.720
<v Speaker 2>Ian, good to have you back here in joining Matt

0:20:11.760 --> 0:20:15.520
<v Speaker 2>and me on this Friday. I hope you're doing well.

0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:18.600
<v Speaker 2>What were the what's the week been like you? Based

0:20:18.640 --> 0:20:20.840
<v Speaker 2>on the air quality and what we had to deal

0:20:20.840 --> 0:20:21.760
<v Speaker 2>with this week.

0:20:22.440 --> 0:20:25.760
<v Speaker 7>You know, I think everyone's been concerned about the wildfires

0:20:25.880 --> 0:20:28.840
<v Speaker 7>in Canada. Hard to believe seven or eight hundred miles away.

0:20:29.560 --> 0:20:32.320
<v Speaker 7>I've been a native New Yorker for all my life.

0:20:32.359 --> 0:20:36.639
<v Speaker 7>I've never seen fires in Canada. Cause the air pollution

0:20:36.840 --> 0:20:39.480
<v Speaker 7>that we saw over the last three days shut to

0:20:39.520 --> 0:20:42.520
<v Speaker 7>northeast and we've had a lot of calls from patients,

0:20:42.560 --> 0:20:47.040
<v Speaker 7>patients with COPD and emphysema. It's been a real challenge.

0:20:47.080 --> 0:20:50.679
<v Speaker 7>We've had to raise people's medications and hailers. And I

0:20:50.680 --> 0:20:55.600
<v Speaker 7>think there's also this anxiety on top of COVID anxiety

0:20:55.640 --> 0:20:59.000
<v Speaker 7>and on top of all sorts of anxiety that they're

0:20:59.080 --> 0:21:02.760
<v Speaker 7>vulnerable there's really no safe place to go. There's still

0:21:02.800 --> 0:21:06.439
<v Speaker 7>some indoor air pollution, and going out on the street

0:21:06.480 --> 0:21:09.879
<v Speaker 7>there's a lot of coughing that acrid smell, and so

0:21:09.920 --> 0:21:12.680
<v Speaker 7>there are real concerns and also not only short term

0:21:12.720 --> 0:21:17.040
<v Speaker 7>but long term concerns because smoke has you know, hundreds

0:21:17.080 --> 0:21:23.080
<v Speaker 7>of chemicals, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, particle size, large particles,

0:21:23.119 --> 0:21:27.920
<v Speaker 7>small particles really all smoke, but especially wood, organic chemicals

0:21:27.960 --> 0:21:32.560
<v Speaker 7>things I tell you in in xylene, sulfur dioxide, and

0:21:32.680 --> 0:21:35.160
<v Speaker 7>some of these over a long period of time can

0:21:35.240 --> 0:21:38.479
<v Speaker 7>have you know, risks as you know, potential cancer risks.

0:21:39.119 --> 0:21:41.560
<v Speaker 7>So it's been a problem for the patients and for

0:21:41.600 --> 0:21:42.240
<v Speaker 7>the doctors.

0:21:42.359 --> 0:21:45.320
<v Speaker 3>So this leads well into the question that our viewer,

0:21:45.960 --> 0:21:49.600
<v Speaker 3>our listener has wondering about the everyday health effects of

0:21:49.640 --> 0:21:53.480
<v Speaker 3>pollution from cars and buildings. You know, if you're walking

0:21:53.520 --> 0:21:56.119
<v Speaker 3>around New York City, you're gonna smell a lot of weed.

0:21:56.359 --> 0:22:00.680
<v Speaker 3>There's smoke everywhere. What can we do if this listener

0:22:00.800 --> 0:22:03.280
<v Speaker 3>wants to know if we're living in the city or

0:22:03.320 --> 0:22:06.600
<v Speaker 3>near the city to protect ourselves, is it just masks,

0:22:06.680 --> 0:22:08.400
<v Speaker 3>air filters, Is there anything else?

0:22:09.359 --> 0:22:12.640
<v Speaker 7>Well, certainly, you know the N ninety five masks, certainly

0:22:12.640 --> 0:22:15.480
<v Speaker 7>for people with lung disease, or if you can get one,

0:22:16.040 --> 0:22:18.480
<v Speaker 7>is very helpful. Right, So some of these particles, you've

0:22:18.480 --> 0:22:23.359
<v Speaker 7>got large particles that generally the cilia in the nose

0:22:23.440 --> 0:22:28.159
<v Speaker 7>and the nosehairs and sinuses can filter out some particles.

0:22:28.240 --> 0:22:32.080
<v Speaker 7>The lung has these little hair cells called cilia. But

0:22:32.240 --> 0:22:36.640
<v Speaker 7>for the very fine particles we're talking, you know, under

0:22:36.640 --> 0:22:41.120
<v Speaker 7>a micron, you know, in size, those can go deep

0:22:41.160 --> 0:22:43.639
<v Speaker 7>in the lungs and cause a lot of problems. So

0:22:43.960 --> 0:22:46.560
<v Speaker 7>the N ninety five masks. If you're outside during a

0:22:46.640 --> 0:22:49.760
<v Speaker 7>day like over the past few days, doing it, an

0:22:49.800 --> 0:22:54.520
<v Speaker 7>air filter or air purifier in in your apartment or

0:22:54.520 --> 0:22:58.600
<v Speaker 7>in your office is very smart. Air conditioning that doesn't

0:22:58.640 --> 0:23:01.680
<v Speaker 7>draw outside air. You're not doing anything helpful if you're

0:23:01.720 --> 0:23:04.360
<v Speaker 7>just sucking outside air and you just have the air

0:23:04.400 --> 0:23:07.960
<v Speaker 7>conditioner filter. But inside air, if it's refiltered, would be

0:23:08.040 --> 0:23:12.399
<v Speaker 7>helpful in general. You know, you're right. The city has

0:23:12.560 --> 0:23:17.600
<v Speaker 7>a lot of particular material from cars, building smokestacks, so

0:23:17.720 --> 0:23:19.960
<v Speaker 7>the air z always dirtier in a city than in

0:23:20.000 --> 0:23:23.439
<v Speaker 7>the suburbs. Walking around the streets, you know, don't go

0:23:23.560 --> 0:23:25.800
<v Speaker 7>behind a bus. A lot of the buses are electric

0:23:25.920 --> 0:23:28.920
<v Speaker 7>now the subways, so the subway tracks cause a lot

0:23:28.960 --> 0:23:32.560
<v Speaker 7>of particulate material. If you look at the lungs the

0:23:32.600 --> 0:23:36.200
<v Speaker 7>autopsy of people who live in the city, they look

0:23:36.320 --> 0:23:39.520
<v Speaker 7>much worse all these dark particles compared to the suburbs.

0:23:39.880 --> 0:23:43.080
<v Speaker 7>Living in the city, you have intrinsically higher risk. You

0:23:43.160 --> 0:23:45.840
<v Speaker 7>can wear a mask outside, it's hard for most people

0:23:45.880 --> 0:23:48.439
<v Speaker 7>to do that. That probably would help a bit, and

0:23:48.520 --> 0:23:51.000
<v Speaker 7>use an air filter and air pure fire in your

0:23:51.040 --> 0:23:52.159
<v Speaker 7>office and in your home.

0:23:53.280 --> 0:23:55.800
<v Speaker 2>I have to say, you know, I've continued wearing a

0:23:55.840 --> 0:23:59.639
<v Speaker 2>mask even post COVID, just especially in and around the

0:23:59.640 --> 0:24:01.640
<v Speaker 2>subway because I just, I don't know, I just don't

0:24:01.880 --> 0:24:06.280
<v Speaker 2>even wear one during COVID, although I understand that their

0:24:06.480 --> 0:24:08.879
<v Speaker 2>health benefits, and it may not have been the smartest

0:24:08.920 --> 0:24:09.760
<v Speaker 2>move on my part.

0:24:09.840 --> 0:24:11.760
<v Speaker 3>I just don't like to wear a mask, you know.

0:24:11.960 --> 0:24:15.200
<v Speaker 2>I don't know, go ahead, Ian, Yeah.

0:24:15.040 --> 0:24:18.239
<v Speaker 7>No, people have psychologic issues and it is hard to

0:24:18.240 --> 0:24:22.320
<v Speaker 7>wear for long periods of time. You know, by and large,

0:24:22.359 --> 0:24:24.920
<v Speaker 7>the air quality in New York is not terrible.

0:24:24.960 --> 0:24:25.400
<v Speaker 4>They great.

0:24:25.480 --> 0:24:28.359
<v Speaker 7>It really is sort of low, medium and high under

0:24:28.400 --> 0:24:31.119
<v Speaker 7>fifty fifty to one hundred and over one hundred, so

0:24:31.160 --> 0:24:33.400
<v Speaker 7>it was well over one hundred during the bad days,

0:24:33.440 --> 0:24:35.359
<v Speaker 7>and I would say for that, wear a mask. I

0:24:35.440 --> 0:24:38.119
<v Speaker 7>wore a mask when I left the office, you know,

0:24:38.160 --> 0:24:41.520
<v Speaker 7>an N ninety five. Most times in the city the

0:24:41.560 --> 0:24:44.360
<v Speaker 7>air quality is not that bad because of the changes,

0:24:45.920 --> 0:24:48.399
<v Speaker 7>but certainly if you're near a smoky area or if

0:24:48.440 --> 0:24:51.000
<v Speaker 7>you have lung problems, I would play it safe. And

0:24:51.080 --> 0:24:54.840
<v Speaker 7>even getting a surgical mask and help cloth masks are useless.

0:24:54.880 --> 0:24:57.240
<v Speaker 7>Bandana is that kind of thing. They didn't help with

0:24:57.359 --> 0:25:00.960
<v Speaker 7>COVID the you know, viral particles right through those. But

0:25:01.200 --> 0:25:04.880
<v Speaker 7>investing in a good either respirat or mask RUN ninety five,

0:25:05.160 --> 0:25:07.800
<v Speaker 7>who knows in the future what other problems there may be.

0:25:08.000 --> 0:25:11.080
<v Speaker 7>New York was not really prepared for this, right you know,

0:25:11.200 --> 0:25:13.919
<v Speaker 7>we've ever seen it, and I think we need to

0:25:13.920 --> 0:25:17.000
<v Speaker 7>get prepared for other issues. You know, they're homeless on

0:25:17.040 --> 0:25:19.240
<v Speaker 7>the street, and we have a lot of people who

0:25:19.240 --> 0:25:22.240
<v Speaker 7>are vulnerable, and we need to plan for the future,

0:25:22.280 --> 0:25:24.640
<v Speaker 7>whether it's storms or whether it's air issues.

0:25:24.800 --> 0:25:26.919
<v Speaker 2>Hey, doctor Lespitter, One thing I did want to ask you,

0:25:27.000 --> 0:25:31.240
<v Speaker 2>what are the consequences for folks that, you know, even

0:25:31.280 --> 0:25:33.400
<v Speaker 2>if they're healthy in their lungs, just a few days

0:25:33.880 --> 0:25:37.000
<v Speaker 2>of breathing in the air this week, or if we

0:25:37.119 --> 0:25:41.320
<v Speaker 2>continue to have you know, climate related or other you know,

0:25:41.600 --> 0:25:43.840
<v Speaker 2>fires and winds that are going to affect us O.

0:25:43.960 --> 0:25:46.199
<v Speaker 2>We have fine, we have more days like this in

0:25:46.200 --> 0:25:49.080
<v Speaker 2>New York City. What do we need to be concerned

0:25:49.080 --> 0:25:50.639
<v Speaker 2>about the long term impact?

0:25:51.320 --> 0:25:53.879
<v Speaker 7>Well, you know, we don't really know. Look, any smoke

0:25:53.960 --> 0:25:57.000
<v Speaker 7>exposure has some risk, and if you have lung disease

0:25:57.200 --> 0:26:00.840
<v Speaker 7>or you've had a past history of smoking, you're higher risk.

0:26:01.240 --> 0:26:05.560
<v Speaker 7>We do speak to your pulmonologist or general internist. We

0:26:05.640 --> 0:26:09.520
<v Speaker 7>do screen with cat scans. By and large temporary smoke

0:26:09.600 --> 0:26:12.800
<v Speaker 7>exposure we can get over so most healthy people, the

0:26:12.880 --> 0:26:16.520
<v Speaker 7>lungs can cleanse themselves to a degree particles can be

0:26:16.560 --> 0:26:20.760
<v Speaker 7>put out. But for prolonged exposure or if you have

0:26:20.840 --> 0:26:24.520
<v Speaker 7>industrial exposure, higher risk of lung cancer, and you do

0:26:24.640 --> 0:26:28.160
<v Speaker 7>need to touch base with your pulmonary specialist. Certainly, people

0:26:28.200 --> 0:26:31.280
<v Speaker 7>who have inhalers sometimes we increase the dose of those.

0:26:32.359 --> 0:26:34.160
<v Speaker 7>I would say, try and get out of the city

0:26:34.160 --> 0:26:36.800
<v Speaker 7>and get some clean air as much as you can

0:26:36.920 --> 0:26:40.040
<v Speaker 7>to balance out your overall exposure. Go to the beach,

0:26:40.119 --> 0:26:42.560
<v Speaker 7>get some clean air. Obviously in the winter that's harder

0:26:42.600 --> 0:26:45.800
<v Speaker 7>to do, but I would definitely try and leave the city.

0:26:46.320 --> 0:26:48.640
<v Speaker 2>Any I have a really important question. Is there any

0:26:48.680 --> 0:26:49.520
<v Speaker 2>help for Matt Miller?

0:26:49.600 --> 0:26:53.280
<v Speaker 3>I just want to know, Ian, it's a psychological thing.

0:26:53.359 --> 0:26:54.440
<v Speaker 3>That's not your specialty.

0:26:54.520 --> 0:26:58.040
<v Speaker 7>Right, that's great. I love his attitude.

0:26:58.040 --> 0:26:58.439
<v Speaker 4>It's key.

0:26:59.040 --> 0:27:01.800
<v Speaker 7>Next time we should speak about a new vitamin study

0:27:01.840 --> 0:27:06.840
<v Speaker 7>that's out that talks about vitamins and dementia multivitamins. There's

0:27:06.880 --> 0:27:09.840
<v Speaker 7>some conflicting data about that, but maybe we can talk

0:27:09.880 --> 0:27:12.679
<v Speaker 7>about that another time. I think it's fascinating. For a

0:27:12.680 --> 0:27:15.760
<v Speaker 7>long time we really said multivitamins don't help. There's a

0:27:15.760 --> 0:27:17.520
<v Speaker 7>little bit of evidence maybe they do.

0:27:17.840 --> 0:27:20.000
<v Speaker 2>That's fascinat Well, that's what we call a deep tease.

0:27:20.160 --> 0:27:21.920
<v Speaker 2>And you did it. Well you're going to be back,

0:27:22.000 --> 0:27:23.960
<v Speaker 2>I know at a future date. Doctor Ian las Bader,

0:27:24.200 --> 0:27:28.199
<v Speaker 2>Clinical Professor of Medicine at NYU Langoing Center here in

0:27:28.280 --> 0:27:29.040
<v Speaker 2>New York City.

0:27:29.760 --> 0:27:35.520
<v Speaker 6>A journal Now about you?

0:27:35.600 --> 0:27:36.080
<v Speaker 3>Let me drive?

0:27:36.359 --> 0:27:38.360
<v Speaker 4>Oh no, no, no, no, who's going to drive?

0:27:39.440 --> 0:27:41.880
<v Speaker 3>Hory please, I'll do the gravels.

0:27:42.920 --> 0:27:43.640
<v Speaker 2>I want to drive.

0:27:43.640 --> 0:27:46.840
<v Speaker 6>It's a good question.

0:27:47.560 --> 0:27:52.840
<v Speaker 1>Try this is the drive to the Globe.

0:27:52.760 --> 0:27:55.159
<v Speaker 6>Dot com comfing Well Bryer around shot it.

0:27:55.240 --> 0:27:56.960
<v Speaker 1>On on Bloemberg Radio.

0:27:57.119 --> 0:27:59.560
<v Speaker 2>All Right, everybody, We've got just under eighteen minutes left

0:27:59.600 --> 0:28:01.680
<v Speaker 2>in today's trading session, getting ready to wrap up the

0:28:01.720 --> 0:28:04.480
<v Speaker 2>Friday trade as well as the week. Carol Master, along

0:28:04.520 --> 0:28:07.200
<v Speaker 2>with Matt Miller, live in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio

0:28:07.320 --> 0:28:09.439
<v Speaker 2>on YouTube in Bloomberg Originals. I want to get right

0:28:09.480 --> 0:28:11.520
<v Speaker 2>to our guests because I'm curious, Matt, what Sam Stobell

0:28:11.560 --> 0:28:14.720
<v Speaker 2>has to say about that twenty percent move off of

0:28:14.800 --> 0:28:17.000
<v Speaker 2>that October twenty twenty two low on the S and

0:28:17.080 --> 0:28:19.960
<v Speaker 2>P five hundred. Sam, of course, is chief investment strategist

0:28:19.960 --> 0:28:22.600
<v Speaker 2>at CFRA on Zoom in New York City, somebody you

0:28:22.680 --> 0:28:25.200
<v Speaker 2>and I have been talking to for years. Sam, it

0:28:25.320 --> 0:28:28.879
<v Speaker 2>is in a couple of decades now, and I think it's.

0:28:28.720 --> 0:28:29.080
<v Speaker 3>A good thing.

0:28:29.119 --> 0:28:31.800
<v Speaker 2>It means we've all seen a lot of cycles. What

0:28:31.920 --> 0:28:33.639
<v Speaker 2>do you make of this cycle and this move off

0:28:33.720 --> 0:28:36.040
<v Speaker 2>the bottom for the S and P five hundred specifically,

0:28:36.119 --> 0:28:36.720
<v Speaker 2>let's start there.

0:28:37.520 --> 0:28:37.760
<v Speaker 4>Sure.

0:28:37.960 --> 0:28:39.800
<v Speaker 8>Well, Hey, Carol, good to talk to you again, Matt,

0:28:39.920 --> 0:28:42.560
<v Speaker 8>always good to talk to you, especially with the new beard.

0:28:43.080 --> 0:28:50.520
<v Speaker 8>But yeah, I think that we registered that twenty percent advance,

0:28:50.600 --> 0:28:53.520
<v Speaker 8>and now obviously people are wondering will the market be

0:28:53.720 --> 0:28:57.840
<v Speaker 8>like the messenger from Marathon who then stumbles and dies

0:28:57.880 --> 0:29:02.200
<v Speaker 8>shortly after announcing the news, or will it have legs

0:29:02.280 --> 0:29:05.320
<v Speaker 8>to run further? And I think history basically tells us

0:29:05.440 --> 0:29:09.120
<v Speaker 8>that we have further to go, and that following twenty

0:29:09.240 --> 0:29:13.640
<v Speaker 8>percent advances off of prior bear market lows, we typically

0:29:13.720 --> 0:29:16.800
<v Speaker 8>advance about fourteen and a half percent, and do so

0:29:17.040 --> 0:29:21.360
<v Speaker 8>over a five month period. So I would advise not

0:29:21.640 --> 0:29:25.360
<v Speaker 8>selling too quickly into this rally, at least if you

0:29:25.440 --> 0:29:28.160
<v Speaker 8>are a longer term investor, because chances are we have

0:29:28.240 --> 0:29:28.720
<v Speaker 8>a ways to go.

0:29:28.960 --> 0:29:29.200
<v Speaker 4>Hang on.

0:29:29.560 --> 0:29:33.400
<v Speaker 3>So I have a sam stoveall for those listening who

0:29:33.440 --> 0:29:36.360
<v Speaker 3>don't know, has like more data than the Bloomberg. So

0:29:37.600 --> 0:29:40.920
<v Speaker 3>when we hear about bear market rallies, and I've seen

0:29:41.440 --> 0:29:43.920
<v Speaker 3>a number myself in the past couple of decades, but

0:29:44.160 --> 0:29:46.520
<v Speaker 3>how often do you see a bear market rally that

0:29:46.640 --> 0:29:48.719
<v Speaker 3>gets up to a more than twenty percent gain from

0:29:48.760 --> 0:29:50.880
<v Speaker 3>the bottom and then it fizzles out?

0:29:52.400 --> 0:29:55.280
<v Speaker 8>Well, if you're looking at the Nasdaq, because it's much

0:29:55.360 --> 0:29:58.040
<v Speaker 8>more volatile than the S and P. We've had eight

0:29:58.200 --> 0:30:02.880
<v Speaker 8>bear markets since the Nasdaq one hundred was created in

0:30:02.960 --> 0:30:05.840
<v Speaker 8>the late nineteen eighties, and a full half of them

0:30:06.320 --> 0:30:10.320
<v Speaker 8>experienced what I call bogus bottoms or fake outs where

0:30:10.400 --> 0:30:13.440
<v Speaker 8>the index was up by twenty percent only to turn

0:30:13.480 --> 0:30:16.000
<v Speaker 8>around and set an even lower low for the S

0:30:16.080 --> 0:30:19.120
<v Speaker 8>and P five hundred. However, we have only had three

0:30:19.400 --> 0:30:22.560
<v Speaker 8>such fake outs, and all three of them were confined

0:30:22.720 --> 0:30:25.680
<v Speaker 8>to the two mega meltdowns of two thousand and two

0:30:25.840 --> 0:30:29.840
<v Speaker 8>through two, as well as seven through nine. This bear

0:30:29.960 --> 0:30:33.600
<v Speaker 8>market I regard as a garden variety bear market, meaning

0:30:33.720 --> 0:30:37.400
<v Speaker 8>less than forty percent decline, and we have never had

0:30:37.880 --> 0:30:42.440
<v Speaker 8>a bogus bottom occur within a garden variety bullmarket.

0:30:42.720 --> 0:30:44.920
<v Speaker 3>Nice. Yeah, Because I was reading Savita s. A Vermani

0:30:44.960 --> 0:30:48.120
<v Speaker 3>and from Bank America, she said ninety two percent of

0:30:48.200 --> 0:30:51.320
<v Speaker 3>the time on the S and P five hundred, after

0:30:51.520 --> 0:30:54.760
<v Speaker 3>you get to a twenty percent rally from the bottom,

0:30:55.240 --> 0:31:00.720
<v Speaker 3>you have gains twelve months later. So in other words,

0:31:00.880 --> 0:31:03.480
<v Speaker 3>it's not a fake out exactly.

0:31:04.240 --> 0:31:06.719
<v Speaker 8>And actually the only thing that I think investors are

0:31:06.880 --> 0:31:09.320
<v Speaker 8>sort of worried that there could be some fake out

0:31:09.520 --> 0:31:12.520
<v Speaker 8>is why is it that this time around small caps

0:31:12.600 --> 0:31:15.920
<v Speaker 8>are not leading the way as they have done five

0:31:16.400 --> 0:31:19.600
<v Speaker 8>or six of the prior times, going back to nineteen

0:31:19.680 --> 0:31:22.680
<v Speaker 8>eighty for the Russell two thousand. This time around we're

0:31:22.840 --> 0:31:26.800
<v Speaker 8>up only about eleven percent versus the twenty one percent

0:31:26.880 --> 0:31:29.720
<v Speaker 8>for the S and P five hundred. So yeah, investors

0:31:29.760 --> 0:31:32.280
<v Speaker 8>are sort of scratching their heads. What's different this time?

0:31:32.760 --> 0:31:35.200
<v Speaker 2>Well, what's different maybe this time? And there's another story

0:31:35.240 --> 0:31:38.040
<v Speaker 2>on the Bloomberg talking about the disconnect between stocks and bonds,

0:31:38.040 --> 0:31:41.440
<v Speaker 2>suggesting a twenty percent downside risk for equities if bonds

0:31:41.480 --> 0:31:45.160
<v Speaker 2>are right in pricing inflation volatilities. According to some modeling

0:31:45.200 --> 0:31:48.040
<v Speaker 2>by JP Morgan Chase and Company strategists, if you look

0:31:48.080 --> 0:31:49.920
<v Speaker 2>at kind of the bond market trade in terms of

0:31:50.000 --> 0:31:52.680
<v Speaker 2>where I guess yield as saying, and there are concerns

0:31:52.680 --> 0:31:56.440
<v Speaker 2>about inflation volatility if that continues to be persistent, Sam,

0:31:56.720 --> 0:31:59.880
<v Speaker 2>is it potentially different time around? We've just come off

0:32:00.080 --> 0:32:03.360
<v Speaker 2>several days of Bloomberg invest you know, top voices like

0:32:03.440 --> 0:32:06.800
<v Speaker 2>yourself in the investment community talking about the markets and

0:32:06.960 --> 0:32:10.360
<v Speaker 2>saying this is unusual times. We're coming off on precedent

0:32:10.400 --> 0:32:13.640
<v Speaker 2>amount of money that was pumped into the economy because

0:32:13.920 --> 0:32:17.080
<v Speaker 2>the global economy, because of the pandemic. We're not really

0:32:17.240 --> 0:32:19.560
<v Speaker 2>quite sure how it plays out.

0:32:20.520 --> 0:32:24.120
<v Speaker 8>Right. Well, the good news is last Monday I published

0:32:24.120 --> 0:32:27.120
<v Speaker 8>a report called Hike, Skip and a Jump, And what

0:32:27.280 --> 0:32:30.600
<v Speaker 8>it showed was that going back to the beginning of

0:32:30.680 --> 0:32:33.680
<v Speaker 8>when the FED actually announced FED Fund changes, prior to

0:32:33.800 --> 0:32:37.520
<v Speaker 8>that they announced only discount rate changes, that whenever we

0:32:37.720 --> 0:32:41.520
<v Speaker 8>did have that skip in the subsequent eight weeks, meaning

0:32:41.600 --> 0:32:45.200
<v Speaker 8>between those two FOMC meetings, the market was up eighty

0:32:45.240 --> 0:32:48.240
<v Speaker 8>eight percent of the time, rising about three point six

0:32:48.360 --> 0:32:51.760
<v Speaker 8>percent on average. So the good news is that if

0:32:51.880 --> 0:32:55.760
<v Speaker 8>the FED does indeed skip, as FED Fund's futures are

0:32:55.960 --> 0:32:59.440
<v Speaker 8>pointing to, that would be a positive sign. However, if

0:32:59.520 --> 0:33:02.880
<v Speaker 8>the FED basically either continues to raise or tells us

0:33:02.960 --> 0:33:06.640
<v Speaker 8>that no, we're nowhere near being done, then you know,

0:33:07.000 --> 0:33:10.280
<v Speaker 8>they could end up not only strangling this new bull market,

0:33:11.000 --> 0:33:15.160
<v Speaker 8>but could throw the economy into something much deeper than

0:33:15.200 --> 0:33:17.120
<v Speaker 8>the mild recession currently priced in.

0:33:17.520 --> 0:33:20.960
<v Speaker 3>Sam, I'm interested to know how you compare and contrast

0:33:21.080 --> 0:33:24.120
<v Speaker 3>this inflationary environment and the FED hikes that we've seen

0:33:24.240 --> 0:33:28.280
<v Speaker 3>with that of the seventies and eighties. You know, it

0:33:28.360 --> 0:33:30.840
<v Speaker 3>seems Powell doesn't want to be in Arthur Burns. Are

0:33:30.880 --> 0:33:32.080
<v Speaker 3>there parallels?

0:33:33.520 --> 0:33:37.920
<v Speaker 8>Well, certainly, I think by hearing Arthur I mean Arthur Powell,

0:33:38.400 --> 0:33:41.400
<v Speaker 8>hearing Jerome Powell say that he does not want to

0:33:41.440 --> 0:33:44.480
<v Speaker 8>repeat the mistakes of the nineteen seventies that that would

0:33:44.480 --> 0:33:47.120
<v Speaker 8>imply that they are going to be raising rates longer.

0:33:47.920 --> 0:33:49.760
<v Speaker 8>But at the same time, if you take a look

0:33:49.880 --> 0:33:52.560
<v Speaker 8>at the inflation numbers, we're going to be getting CPI

0:33:54.000 --> 0:33:56.720
<v Speaker 8>soon next week, we're going to be EPI. Both of

0:33:56.800 --> 0:33:59.960
<v Speaker 8>them continue to show a stare step down, and we're

0:34:00.160 --> 0:34:02.840
<v Speaker 8>finding that the Fed funds rate is now well above

0:34:03.120 --> 0:34:07.360
<v Speaker 8>both of those year on year changes. So that typically

0:34:08.120 --> 0:34:10.560
<v Speaker 8>is what happens close to the end of a rate

0:34:10.680 --> 0:34:14.759
<v Speaker 8>tightening cycle. And again I point to what happens after

0:34:14.840 --> 0:34:18.520
<v Speaker 8>the Fed stops raising rate. Historically they don't cut rates

0:34:18.560 --> 0:34:21.920
<v Speaker 8>for another nine months. So my belief is they're not

0:34:22.000 --> 0:34:24.200
<v Speaker 8>going to be cutting rates until the second quarter of

0:34:24.280 --> 0:34:27.840
<v Speaker 8>next year. But still the market is up thirteen percent

0:34:27.920 --> 0:34:31.879
<v Speaker 8>on average, with all sizes, styles, sectors, and ninety nine

0:34:31.920 --> 0:34:36.520
<v Speaker 8>percent of sub industries in positive territory over that timeframe.

0:34:36.280 --> 0:34:39.239
<v Speaker 2>So really quickly thirty seconds though, would you like to

0:34:39.360 --> 0:34:44.120
<v Speaker 2>see a more broadening out though of the market trade, Well, you.

0:34:44.160 --> 0:34:46.600
<v Speaker 8>Could say that it is fairly broad already because more

0:34:46.640 --> 0:34:49.279
<v Speaker 8>than fifty percent of the stocks in the S and

0:34:49.360 --> 0:34:52.879
<v Speaker 8>P five hundred are positive year to date, forty seven

0:34:52.960 --> 0:34:55.800
<v Speaker 8>percent of them are above the markets, the S and

0:34:55.880 --> 0:35:00.320
<v Speaker 8>P five hundred equal weight performance and a majority of

0:35:00.640 --> 0:35:05.040
<v Speaker 8>certainly the high growth areas are showing percentages above fifty.

0:35:05.320 --> 0:35:08.040
<v Speaker 8>But even a group like real estate has forty three

0:35:08.160 --> 0:35:10.840
<v Speaker 8>percent of its components this positive character.

0:35:11.040 --> 0:35:12.600
<v Speaker 2>If year, okay, got leave on that.

0:35:12.760 --> 0:35:13.759
<v Speaker 6>Now love the data points.

0:35:13.800 --> 0:35:15.520
<v Speaker 2>You're right, it doesn't win the Bloomberg.

0:35:15.760 --> 0:35:16.160
<v Speaker 4>I love it.

0:35:16.440 --> 0:35:16.880
<v Speaker 5>I love it.

0:35:17.040 --> 0:35:18.040
<v Speaker 3>Thank you so much. Sam.

0:35:18.800 --> 0:35:23.400
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. I'll available on Apple, Spotify,

0:35:23.600 --> 0:35:27.280
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0:35:27.280 --> 0:35:30.759
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0:35:30.960 --> 0:35:34.239
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0:35:34.360 --> 0:35:37.280
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0:35:37.520 --> 0:35:39.759
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