1 00:00:01,360 --> 00:00:05,680 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and 2 00:00:05,880 --> 00:00:09,440 Speaker 1: editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus 3 00:00:09,520 --> 00:00:13,680 Speaker 1: global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week 4 00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:19,000 Speaker 1: Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebek from Bloomberg Radio. 5 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:23,759 Speaker 2: We've been talking a lot about Tesla today with good reason. 6 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 2: Stocks still oh man, it's not one hundred percent anymore. 7 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 2: It's ninety eight point three three percent the gains this year. 8 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:33,279 Speaker 2: Oh you know, should should we not talk about it? 9 00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:35,520 Speaker 3: Well, it's still off, you well, off of its highs 10 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:36,520 Speaker 3: from twenty twenty one. 11 00:00:36,600 --> 00:00:38,879 Speaker 2: That's a really good point some perspective. But it's been 12 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 2: on a tear this year and it's on track for 13 00:00:41,800 --> 00:00:45,680 Speaker 2: its record eleventh consecutive session of gains. So it's also 14 00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:48,040 Speaker 2: a longtime favorite among retail traders. So let's get into 15 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:51,840 Speaker 2: it because there's been some new, some fundamental just following 16 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:53,840 Speaker 2: on the heels of GM saying it's going to tap 17 00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:58,240 Speaker 2: into Tesla's EV charging network, following also after Ford did 18 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:00,320 Speaker 2: the same thing. So let's get to it with David Welsh, 19 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:03,160 Speaker 2: Bloomberg News Detroit bureau chief. He is on the phone 20 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:05,839 Speaker 2: from Detroit. David Great to have you here with Matt 21 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 2: and myself. So now it looks like, what three billion 22 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 2: that Tesla stands to gain by twenty thirty because of 23 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:14,399 Speaker 2: these deals with Ford and GM. How big a nut 24 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:17,119 Speaker 2: is that When you look at the revenue picture for Tesla. 25 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 4: At the end of the day, it's not huge revenue. 26 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:23,120 Speaker 4: I just think it's to me, it's interesting because you 27 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:25,640 Speaker 4: look over the past five years and they've made over 28 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:31,760 Speaker 4: five billion selling regulatory credits to the legacy automakers who 29 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:33,959 Speaker 4: need to meet clean air standards and don't have enough 30 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 4: electric vehicles to do it. So Tesla just you know, 31 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:40,639 Speaker 4: three billion dollars by twenty thirty. You know, their revenue 32 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 4: is over eighty billion a year now, They're probably much 33 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:44,640 Speaker 4: greater by then, So it's you know, it's a few 34 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 4: percentage points. It's not massive for a growth company like this, 35 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:50,600 Speaker 4: But to me, it just stands out that they keep 36 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 4: making money. They making money off their competitors. It's great 37 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 4: because they have such a lead in electrification that their 38 00:01:56,400 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 4: competitors keep giving them ways to either money or direct 39 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 4: or ways to make money to fund their new products 40 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 4: while they're trying to catch up. 41 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:06,440 Speaker 3: The Tesla in the first place, So I have so 42 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:10,040 Speaker 3: many questions. I'm glad you could join us, David. Isn't 43 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 3: this really cool in that it creates an industry standard? 44 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 3: Or is it global or is it just the US? 45 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 4: Right now, it's just us. We'll see what happens globally 46 00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 4: and the thing, I think it'll stretch to Canada as well. 47 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 4: You know, there are Chinese automakers. I think they've got 48 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 4: their own standard over there, but Tesla does sell evs 49 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 4: in that market. I'm not totally sure what the confluence 50 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 4: of a different standard is over there. But US market, 51 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 4: it is very cool that we're getting one standard, because honestly, 52 00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 4: it was kind of dumb that we had more than one. Stupid. 53 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 2: It's like Beta max versus VHS, like right, remember. 54 00:02:52,480 --> 00:02:56,920 Speaker 4: The old Yeah, that's a classic business case, you know. 55 00:02:57,040 --> 00:03:01,480 Speaker 4: And for that matter, the days when and I was 56 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:04,520 Speaker 4: I was an Apple geek in the early days, when 57 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:11,680 Speaker 4: you know, you started losing certain programs because it wasn't 58 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 4: compatible with Windows or Microsoft products. Eventually, I think Steve 59 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 4: Jobs caved and bridge the gap, but for a while, 60 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:20,840 Speaker 4: if you had Apple stuff, you couldn't use certain things. 61 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:24,959 Speaker 3: So speaking of caving, is Delantis next because I'm looking 62 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:28,480 Speaker 3: forward to Dodge is going to make a charger EV 63 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 3: that is just going to be insane. Is that going 64 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 3: to have a Tesla style charging port? 65 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 4: I bet it will. I mean, I think everybody has 66 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 4: to cave at this point. You're talking about the number one, 67 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 4: two and three companies and EV sales in the US. 68 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 4: I think Toyota will have to as well. And I 69 00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:52,160 Speaker 4: think everyone is going to have to follow and do this. 70 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 4: And so it's not they're talking about an adapter to 71 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 4: begin with and then eventually just making a you know, 72 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 4: putting a Tesla inlet port in the vehicle. It's not 73 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:04,840 Speaker 4: a radical change for anybody. It's you know, it's not 74 00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:10,600 Speaker 4: like they're you know, going from you know, a gasoline 75 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 4: engine to a jet engine in the car. You know, 76 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:14,040 Speaker 4: this is this is a plug. 77 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 2: But it creates, like you know, I said to we 78 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 2: were talking earlier, you know, whether you're like Elon must 79 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 2: or not. I mean, you can be kind of cookie. 80 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:27,120 Speaker 2: But having said that, is it just the possibility though, 81 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 2: of creating a significant, even more revenue stream for this company. 82 00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 2: And we talked about three billion, but could it even 83 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:34,040 Speaker 2: be more in the future. 84 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 4: Well, so the forecast I used from percent and other 85 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 4: analysts had forecasts out there kind of some were more 86 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:47,400 Speaker 4: similar to less but directionally similar. And I think Sandlers 87 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:50,680 Speaker 4: Piper Sanders forecast is looking at not just for GM 88 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:53,840 Speaker 4: but basically everybody going this way. And I think now 89 00:04:53,839 --> 00:05:01,279 Speaker 4: that doesn't happen, everybody's going to have to eventually well, 90 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:04,279 Speaker 4: I think connects shoot to drop here that could actually 91 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:07,680 Speaker 4: reduce the amount of revenue growth Tesla gets have. This 92 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:10,599 Speaker 4: is I think all you know, this patchwork quilp of 93 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 4: multiple EV charging players that are out there that GM, 94 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:17,479 Speaker 4: Ford and everybody else has partnerships with, they're going to 95 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 4: have to adopt Tesla's standards unbelievable and a CS and 96 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 4: and when that happens, then consumers will be able to 97 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:31,120 Speaker 4: use other networks that aren't Tesla's but using the Tesla chargeboard. 98 00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 4: But you know there's an interim here and you know 99 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:35,320 Speaker 4: medium long term where Tesla's going to be making money 100 00:05:35,320 --> 00:05:38,799 Speaker 4: off of this on they're dedicated chargers and they could 101 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:40,920 Speaker 4: they could for a very long time to come actually, 102 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:43,840 Speaker 4: because if you're driving around and your car can use 103 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 4: a charge point charger anywhere you see a Tesla and 104 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:49,600 Speaker 4: that's open, you're going to take it and it's more 105 00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 4: reliable too. 106 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:55,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, good stuff, as always, the ever evolving world 107 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 2: of Tesla and Elon Musk. David Welch, Detroit Buro, chief 108 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:01,720 Speaker 2: of Bloomberg News, on the phone from Detroit. Really appreciate it, David, 109 00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 2: have a. 110 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 4: Good thanks, David. 111 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:03,279 Speaker 5: How do you? 112 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:03,680 Speaker 3: How are you? 113 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:05,680 Speaker 2: I mean we talked about this a little bit yesterday, right, 114 00:06:05,720 --> 00:06:08,080 Speaker 2: and just what this move? You were you were kind 115 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:08,919 Speaker 2: of like blown away. 116 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 3: Well, I think it's very cool because it creates I 117 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 3: always applaud kind of universal standards, even when they're not 118 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 3: necessarily the best choice. For example, VHS, probably the technology 119 00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:23,680 Speaker 3: wasn't as good as beta. For those of you old 120 00:06:23,760 --> 00:06:25,160 Speaker 3: enough to remember what beta was. 121 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 2: Pretty incredible, Yeah, or there was three quarter. Remember there's 122 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:28,040 Speaker 2: beta and time. 123 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:31,479 Speaker 3: I remember all of them. But it doesn't matter. The 124 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 3: point is when you get a universal standard, then the 125 00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:38,719 Speaker 3: industry grows much faster. So for me, that's the exciting 126 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:43,640 Speaker 3: point about this. You know, we're already expecting eighteen percent growth, 127 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 3: near to a fifth of all car sales globally this 128 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 3: year are going to be EV's So this is just 129 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:54,680 Speaker 3: going to accelerate that transition, which is exciting and also 130 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 3: in some ways of concern, right because our grid maybe 131 00:06:57,440 --> 00:06:59,240 Speaker 3: can't handle it if we had that many evs. 132 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 2: Well, we found that yesterday, right, all the conversations we 133 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 2: had about the energy markets and you know how old 134 00:07:04,080 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 2: our grid is not a news story everybody, but it 135 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:07,880 Speaker 2: just seems like we talk about it, talk about the 136 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 2: importance of infrastructure, you know, investing, whether it's energy or 137 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 2: whether it's like ev you know, charging areas, and we 138 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:16,480 Speaker 2: just kind of forget to do it. And so in 139 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:18,560 Speaker 2: this case you've got a private sector company doing it. 140 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:21,480 Speaker 3: I'm very pumped also about the next generation of evs 141 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 3: because I think it'll be the first generation of evs 142 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 3: from other automakers that are really from bottom up designed 143 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:33,800 Speaker 3: to be electric vehicles. So no longer just ICEE E 144 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:38,280 Speaker 3: vehicles that the company put a battery. ICEE an internal 145 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:40,679 Speaker 3: combustion engine, got it. So no longer just gas burning 146 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:42,560 Speaker 3: vehicles that used to have an engine that may just 147 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:45,800 Speaker 3: put a battery in. So they're designed, purpose built to 148 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:48,119 Speaker 3: be EV's and they're going to be not only much 149 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:53,200 Speaker 3: better in terms of everything from range to handling to performance. 150 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:55,000 Speaker 2: Which is what the what Tesla is, right, Yeah, for sure, 151 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:56,120 Speaker 2: but they're also. 152 00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 3: Going to be much more affordable, which is what I'm 153 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:00,680 Speaker 3: looking forward to, because you know, you go out there 154 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 3: in the market right now crazy and you see vehicles 155 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:06,440 Speaker 3: like the BMW I X is really cool, but it's 156 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:09,880 Speaker 3: ninety thousand dollars to start. Now you're starting to see 157 00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 3: real competition. I'm driving right now a Nissan Ariyah I 158 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:16,440 Speaker 3: think it's called a r I y am test driving it, 159 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:21,960 Speaker 3: and it's unbelievably cool. It's elegant in its design, it's fast, 160 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:25,800 Speaker 3: it handles well, it's fun to drive, and it's affordable. 161 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 3: It's like starts at forty five grand or so. 162 00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 2: So kind of like the idea of when Prius was 163 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 2: first you know, created as a hybrid, was it thought 164 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:33,880 Speaker 2: about as from the ground up? 165 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:34,720 Speaker 1: Uh? 166 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:37,200 Speaker 3: Well, that was I'm sure thought about as a Yeah, 167 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 3: a ground up hybrid vehicle for sure, because if you 168 00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 3: look at and Teslas, you're right, we're ground up, designed 169 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:45,559 Speaker 3: to be ev EVS after the roadster, because remember the 170 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:48,040 Speaker 3: roadster they first used was actually a I think a 171 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:51,080 Speaker 3: Lotus or an Opal body and they put a battery 172 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:51,320 Speaker 3: in it. 173 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 2: This is why we love having you around. You kind 174 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:55,080 Speaker 2: of know a few things I know if. 175 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:56,920 Speaker 3: You you know your you know a few things too. 176 00:08:57,160 --> 00:08:59,240 Speaker 2: No, but I'm with you. I'm looking at the prices 177 00:08:59,280 --> 00:09:02,000 Speaker 2: on things and I'm like, what happened? Am my two spans? 178 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 2: I mean, this is how do you make this a 179 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 2: mass market car? If we're supposed to ramp up to 180 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 2: hit certain nut coming? All right, I'm going to hold 181 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 2: my breath and I can't wait. 182 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 183 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:19,720 Speaker 1: live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on 184 00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:23,839 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, 185 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:28,080 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 186 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 2: We know a lot of news on crypto this week, 187 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:34,079 Speaker 2: To say the least, Matt us really feel like it's 188 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:37,720 Speaker 2: being thrown into deeper array. You had also Binance today, 189 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:40,920 Speaker 2: Banking partners getting ready to rescind support liquidity drawing up 190 00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:45,800 Speaker 2: traders withdrawing tokens from the platform as regulators are clamping 191 00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 2: down on the company and its owner. So it's been 192 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:50,319 Speaker 2: a week full of some really tough news for the 193 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:51,200 Speaker 2: crypto universe. 194 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:51,439 Speaker 1: Yeah. 195 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:57,400 Speaker 3: Absolutely. The Coinbase move probably felt more by US investors, 196 00:09:57,400 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 3: obviously because it's publicly traded here, But ban is the 197 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 3: big cat in this industry, and if it starts to 198 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:11,480 Speaker 3: lose I guess scale, that's a problem for advancement in 199 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:12,559 Speaker 3: this in crypto. 200 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:16,360 Speaker 2: It does wonder about kind of the latest stress points 201 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 2: and the viability of the US crypto industry industry. So 202 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:22,080 Speaker 2: let's get into it with solidus Labs Vice President of 203 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:25,600 Speaker 2: Regulatory Affairs Kathy Kreninger, also former director of the Consumer 204 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:29,319 Speaker 2: Protection Financial Bureau, joining us via zoom from Washington, d C. 205 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 2: Once again, sold us is a crypto market surveillance and 206 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:36,840 Speaker 2: risk monitoring platform. Just for those of you not in 207 00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:39,040 Speaker 2: the know. Kathy, good to have you back with us. 208 00:10:40,080 --> 00:10:42,680 Speaker 2: Your gut take on the news this week and what 209 00:10:42,720 --> 00:10:44,200 Speaker 2: it means for the US crypto industry. 210 00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:47,680 Speaker 6: Well, you said it here too. 211 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:50,280 Speaker 5: It is quite a week when you thought the news 212 00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:53,880 Speaker 5: couldn't get any bigger. We find ourselves continually on a 213 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:58,040 Speaker 5: roller coaster with this industry and unfortunately, particularly in the US. 214 00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:02,600 Speaker 5: Look I said it before, agencies should go after bad actors. 215 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:05,000 Speaker 6: That's exactly what you want to see happen. So there 216 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:05,720 Speaker 6: are certainly some. 217 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:10,800 Speaker 5: Allegations that finance needs to address and having that out 218 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:13,360 Speaker 5: in the open, frankly gives them the opportunity to do that. 219 00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:14,600 Speaker 6: No surprise. 220 00:11:14,679 --> 00:11:19,679 Speaker 5: The SEC has been engaging in investigations into a number 221 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:23,000 Speaker 5: of platforms and operators in the crypto space now for 222 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:25,960 Speaker 5: quite some time. So having the cases out there and 223 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:30,319 Speaker 5: in the open matters the other side, as you mentioned, 224 00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 5: with the coinbase, they're two very different cases. 225 00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 3: So what let's focus in on Coinbase in terms of 226 00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 3: what they can do well. Really, the similarity I think 227 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:49,719 Speaker 3: between the two is compliance is almost impossible for crypto businesses, 228 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:53,120 Speaker 3: or that's what they tell us. Is that true? You know, 229 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 3: because we hear Gensler say all we want you to 230 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:58,720 Speaker 3: do is come into compliance, and these crypto businesses say, 231 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:00,920 Speaker 3: there's no way for us to do that. We've applied 232 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:02,040 Speaker 3: and they rejected us. 233 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:06,960 Speaker 5: There are some real challenges here around the definitions and 234 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:07,880 Speaker 5: the requirements. 235 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 6: Definitely so. 236 00:12:09,480 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 5: And actually a great hearing on Tuesday that included a 237 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:16,239 Speaker 5: coin based witness, as Sherman Thompson of the House Agriculture 238 00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:20,160 Speaker 5: Committee noted, highly unusual to have a witness before the 239 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:23,560 Speaker 5: committee who's now the subject of an enforcement action and 240 00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:27,160 Speaker 5: litigation by an agency, but that that was par for 241 00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:29,600 Speaker 5: the course and why the hearing was so important, and 242 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:34,959 Speaker 5: the legislation was so important, So it is challenging, no doubt. 243 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 5: There are very few crypto businesses or special purpose registrations 244 00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:45,120 Speaker 5: that have gone through that are related to crypto and 245 00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:49,480 Speaker 5: part of that has to do with two, you know, 246 00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:52,760 Speaker 5: the business that they are engaged in and the fundamental 247 00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:57,520 Speaker 5: disclosures requirements and registration nuts and bolts that the SEC 248 00:12:57,679 --> 00:13:01,320 Speaker 5: requires that they just simply can not actually comply with. 249 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:04,120 Speaker 5: Some of it also is related to what the nature 250 00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 5: of these assets are and having that be clear in law. 251 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:10,440 Speaker 5: Point Base is a publicly traded company. They go through 252 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 5: a rigorous process that they have outlined repeatedly around their 253 00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:17,880 Speaker 5: assessment of which assets are or are not securities, and 254 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:20,439 Speaker 5: it is not their intention to list securities, as many 255 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:23,760 Speaker 5: of the platforms say, so why they would be subject 256 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 5: to registration is something that again this case now is 257 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:29,520 Speaker 5: going to really be at the heart of the matter 258 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:32,840 Speaker 5: of are these assets securities and why and the sec 259 00:13:32,920 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 5: actually you know, asserting that and proving that. 260 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:37,280 Speaker 3: What's your take? By the way, I mean, people always 261 00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:42,200 Speaker 3: talk about the Howie test, and there are some cases 262 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 3: in which it's very clear, and I think Gary Gensler 263 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 3: has set himself there some cases in which it's you know, 264 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:52,920 Speaker 3: bitcoin for example, is is not a security. But in 265 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:57,199 Speaker 3: a lot of these instances you can debate whether it's 266 00:13:57,240 --> 00:13:59,040 Speaker 3: a security or a commodity. 267 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:01,839 Speaker 6: You definitely can. 268 00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:05,160 Speaker 5: I mean it comes down to again whether whether there 269 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:09,280 Speaker 5: is an aspect of decentralization in terms of whether this 270 00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:13,720 Speaker 5: is you know that that group of people that you 271 00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:16,920 Speaker 5: expect to benefit from and reap the rewards of their work, 272 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 5: uh and their you know, their efforts. 273 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 6: So that is is one prong of the analysis. 274 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:28,560 Speaker 5: Certainly under under the Howie test that that gets some attention. 275 00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:29,040 Speaker 4: Uh. 276 00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 5: And and there are certainly things like like bitgoin that 277 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 5: you would argue is decentralized. I think there is some 278 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:40,320 Speaker 5: real question too over over what ownership aspect there really 279 00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 5: is and what anyone actually owns and so the the 280 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 5: other dynamic here in terms of what securities law requires. 281 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 5: That takes me back to the first question you asked 282 00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:53,960 Speaker 5: and what is important here. It is important for issuers 283 00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:58,960 Speaker 5: and listeners to actually disclose what the asset does. 284 00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:01,000 Speaker 6: What it's intended to do, now it's used, who is 285 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 6: behind it. 286 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:05,200 Speaker 5: There are some classic things that again good actors in 287 00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:08,480 Speaker 5: crypto claim they are already doing and meeting so in 288 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:12,240 Speaker 5: some respects meeting the spirit of that important information and 289 00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 5: getting it to investors, but all the mechanics of registration 290 00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:18,280 Speaker 5: are things that they simply cannot actually meet. 291 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:20,920 Speaker 2: So, Kathy, you know, we had a conversation Matt and 292 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 2: I yesterday with former SEC chair j Clayton and Dean 293 00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 2: moorehead also who's very involved in the crypto space, and 294 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:30,960 Speaker 2: I do wonder one of the points that came up 295 00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:34,840 Speaker 2: is that you do already see sovereign you know, being 296 00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:40,000 Speaker 2: issued based on blockchain technology around the world, and I 297 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:42,840 Speaker 2: do wonder, you know, as we think about the legitimacy 298 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:45,760 Speaker 2: of crypto going forward, has kind of the train left 299 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 2: the station, and so that if the US is not 300 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:51,200 Speaker 2: on board in terms of figuring out the regulatory framework 301 00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:54,680 Speaker 2: along with other folks in the world, that they will 302 00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:59,480 Speaker 2: be ultimately left behind. Can we make that conclusion if 303 00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:01,720 Speaker 2: they're not in if the US isn't involved US. 304 00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:05,960 Speaker 6: Regulators, Look, I agree with that in part. 305 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 5: I would say the US markets are such that, you know, 306 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 5: there will always be an interest by companies serve US markets, 307 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:14,440 Speaker 5: and that will come back around. I think where it 308 00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:17,880 Speaker 5: really does concern me is the national security dynamics. 309 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 6: We have benefited from decades and even. 310 00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 5: I suppose more than a century of US innovation setting 311 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:30,520 Speaker 5: the standard for how the globe operates. We built the 312 00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:34,080 Speaker 5: financial systems of the world, so there is a national 313 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 5: security benefit to that, the dollar being you know, basically 314 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:41,760 Speaker 5: the world's currency, that we benefited from that, and the 315 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:45,520 Speaker 5: notion that we would be absent as the next financial 316 00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:48,480 Speaker 5: system is really being built and that infrastructure is being built. 317 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 5: That's where we're really I think losing that long term 318 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:57,840 Speaker 5: competitive advantage and our place in the world's economy and 319 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:03,600 Speaker 5: then frankly in the global dynamics even politically speaking, and 320 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:07,720 Speaker 5: from a stability standpoint, in a national security standpoint, So 321 00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:11,560 Speaker 5: that does concern me greatly and I think is hugely 322 00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:15,439 Speaker 5: unfortunate if we if we just concede. The other thing 323 00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:17,639 Speaker 5: I would note that is to different this year is 324 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:21,439 Speaker 5: really Chair Gensler's statement and attitude when you get to 325 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:24,760 Speaker 5: you know, what, what is there room for in this 326 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:28,960 Speaker 5: new economy and his stance that the only digital currencies 327 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:31,399 Speaker 5: that are necessary are the ones that already exist and 328 00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:36,040 Speaker 5: are issued by governments. You know, that really does undermine 329 00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:39,919 Speaker 5: the potential and opportunity that's here, but some of it 330 00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:43,919 Speaker 5: gets to terminology too. I've not really believed that the 331 00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 5: future of a lot of the tokenization is truly in currency, 332 00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:52,320 Speaker 5: you know, and really replacing sovereign currencies. But there is 333 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 5: I think a lot with the infrastructure that having you know, 334 00:17:57,359 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 5: stable coins and certainly having digital assets is hugely beneficial. 335 00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:08,000 Speaker 3: Is there a do you think there's a consensus feeling 336 00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:10,119 Speaker 3: in Congress about which way we need to go in 337 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:11,840 Speaker 3: terms of either supporting it or killing it. 338 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,480 Speaker 5: I continue to believe that on both sides of the 339 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:19,119 Speaker 5: aisle there's a lot of interest in setting this up 340 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:22,600 Speaker 5: the right way and understanding the potential and having the conversation. 341 00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:25,160 Speaker 6: A lot of concern frankly about. 342 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:28,359 Speaker 5: The scams and fraud and dynamics around FTX. 343 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 6: That's completely legitimate. 344 00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:33,040 Speaker 5: I mean, look, whenever any new technology comes into play, 345 00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 5: there are going to be those challenges and that's I 346 00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:39,760 Speaker 5: think hugely unfortunate and where the industry needs to step 347 00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:43,399 Speaker 5: up calling out the bad actors, where agencies should focus 348 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 5: their energy going after them, but where there are not 349 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:51,440 Speaker 5: clear rules that good actors can follow. That's really where 350 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 5: you see the flight that we are. Again, certainly people 351 00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:58,960 Speaker 5: are asserting leaving the US markets, and we're seeing some 352 00:18:59,000 --> 00:18:59,800 Speaker 5: of that itself. 353 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:01,400 Speaker 6: All right, we got to run. 354 00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:04,320 Speaker 2: Hey, Kathy, thank you, appreciate you waiting weighing in on 355 00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:07,879 Speaker 2: all of this. Kathy Kreninger, vice president of Regulatory Affairs 356 00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:11,960 Speaker 2: at Solidus Labs, former director of the Consumer Protection Financial Bureau, 357 00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:14,159 Speaker 2: joining us on Zoom from Washington, DC. Matt, did you 358 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:17,679 Speaker 2: see the store about robin hood removing three jokers from 359 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:19,280 Speaker 2: its crypto trading platform? 360 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:20,880 Speaker 3: You know, so, I think anyone's going to be doing 361 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:23,439 Speaker 3: that if they've been defined as a security by the SEC. 362 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 2: You got to get rid of them, right, They've got 363 00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:25,720 Speaker 2: to be nervous. 364 00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:30,080 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 365 00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:34,240 Speaker 1: live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio, 366 00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:37,639 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app and YouTube. You can also listen 367 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:40,840 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station 368 00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:44,040 Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 369 00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:47,040 Speaker 2: Got to love them. We've got a guest coming on, 370 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:50,240 Speaker 2: and we've got a question ahead of them even joining us. 371 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:53,760 Speaker 3: A listener writes in with a question before we have 372 00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:57,040 Speaker 3: the guests. That's brilliant. That's a popular is the should 373 00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:59,560 Speaker 3: always do that. It makes our lives so much easier. 374 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:02,720 Speaker 2: Body listening because please do this, do this anyway, let's 375 00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:04,800 Speaker 2: get right to it. Doctor Ian las Baders with US, 376 00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 2: clinical professor of Medicine at NYU Lango and on Zoom in. 377 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:08,600 Speaker 3: New York City. 378 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:11,720 Speaker 2: Ian, good to have you back here in joining Matt 379 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:15,520 Speaker 2: and me on this Friday. I hope you're doing well. 380 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:18,600 Speaker 2: What were the what's the week been like you? Based 381 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:20,840 Speaker 2: on the air quality and what we had to deal 382 00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:21,760 Speaker 2: with this week. 383 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 7: You know, I think everyone's been concerned about the wildfires 384 00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:28,840 Speaker 7: in Canada. Hard to believe seven or eight hundred miles away. 385 00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 7: I've been a native New Yorker for all my life. 386 00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:36,639 Speaker 7: I've never seen fires in Canada. Cause the air pollution 387 00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:39,480 Speaker 7: that we saw over the last three days shut to 388 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,520 Speaker 7: northeast and we've had a lot of calls from patients, 389 00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:47,040 Speaker 7: patients with COPD and emphysema. It's been a real challenge. 390 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:50,679 Speaker 7: We've had to raise people's medications and hailers. And I 391 00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:55,600 Speaker 7: think there's also this anxiety on top of COVID anxiety 392 00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 7: and on top of all sorts of anxiety that they're 393 00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:02,760 Speaker 7: vulnerable there's really no safe place to go. There's still 394 00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:06,439 Speaker 7: some indoor air pollution, and going out on the street 395 00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:09,879 Speaker 7: there's a lot of coughing that acrid smell, and so 396 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:12,680 Speaker 7: there are real concerns and also not only short term 397 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:17,040 Speaker 7: but long term concerns because smoke has you know, hundreds 398 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:23,080 Speaker 7: of chemicals, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, particle size, large particles, 399 00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:27,920 Speaker 7: small particles really all smoke, but especially wood, organic chemicals 400 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:32,560 Speaker 7: things I tell you in in xylene, sulfur dioxide, and 401 00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:35,160 Speaker 7: some of these over a long period of time can 402 00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:38,479 Speaker 7: have you know, risks as you know, potential cancer risks. 403 00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:41,560 Speaker 7: So it's been a problem for the patients and for 404 00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:42,240 Speaker 7: the doctors. 405 00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,320 Speaker 3: So this leads well into the question that our viewer, 406 00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:49,600 Speaker 3: our listener has wondering about the everyday health effects of 407 00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:53,480 Speaker 3: pollution from cars and buildings. You know, if you're walking 408 00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,119 Speaker 3: around New York City, you're gonna smell a lot of weed. 409 00:21:56,359 --> 00:22:00,680 Speaker 3: There's smoke everywhere. What can we do if this listener 410 00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 3: wants to know if we're living in the city or 411 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,600 Speaker 3: near the city to protect ourselves, is it just masks, 412 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:08,400 Speaker 3: air filters, Is there anything else? 413 00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:12,640 Speaker 7: Well, certainly, you know the N ninety five masks, certainly 414 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:15,480 Speaker 7: for people with lung disease, or if you can get one, 415 00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:18,480 Speaker 7: is very helpful. Right, So some of these particles, you've 416 00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:23,359 Speaker 7: got large particles that generally the cilia in the nose 417 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:28,159 Speaker 7: and the nosehairs and sinuses can filter out some particles. 418 00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:32,080 Speaker 7: The lung has these little hair cells called cilia. But 419 00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:36,640 Speaker 7: for the very fine particles we're talking, you know, under 420 00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:41,120 Speaker 7: a micron, you know, in size, those can go deep 421 00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:43,639 Speaker 7: in the lungs and cause a lot of problems. So 422 00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:46,560 Speaker 7: the N ninety five masks. If you're outside during a 423 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,760 Speaker 7: day like over the past few days, doing it, an 424 00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:54,520 Speaker 7: air filter or air purifier in in your apartment or 425 00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 7: in your office is very smart. Air conditioning that doesn't 426 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:01,680 Speaker 7: draw outside air. You're not doing anything helpful if you're 427 00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:04,360 Speaker 7: just sucking outside air and you just have the air 428 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,960 Speaker 7: conditioner filter. But inside air, if it's refiltered, would be 429 00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:12,399 Speaker 7: helpful in general. You know, you're right. The city has 430 00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:17,600 Speaker 7: a lot of particular material from cars, building smokestacks, so 431 00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:19,960 Speaker 7: the air z always dirtier in a city than in 432 00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:23,439 Speaker 7: the suburbs. Walking around the streets, you know, don't go 433 00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:25,800 Speaker 7: behind a bus. A lot of the buses are electric 434 00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:28,920 Speaker 7: now the subways, so the subway tracks cause a lot 435 00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:32,560 Speaker 7: of particulate material. If you look at the lungs the 436 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:36,200 Speaker 7: autopsy of people who live in the city, they look 437 00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:39,520 Speaker 7: much worse all these dark particles compared to the suburbs. 438 00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:43,080 Speaker 7: Living in the city, you have intrinsically higher risk. You 439 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:45,840 Speaker 7: can wear a mask outside, it's hard for most people 440 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:48,439 Speaker 7: to do that. That probably would help a bit, and 441 00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:51,000 Speaker 7: use an air filter and air pure fire in your 442 00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:52,159 Speaker 7: office and in your home. 443 00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 2: I have to say, you know, I've continued wearing a 444 00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:59,639 Speaker 2: mask even post COVID, just especially in and around the 445 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:01,640 Speaker 2: subway because I just, I don't know, I just don't 446 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:06,280 Speaker 2: even wear one during COVID, although I understand that their 447 00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:08,879 Speaker 2: health benefits, and it may not have been the smartest 448 00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:09,760 Speaker 2: move on my part. 449 00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:11,760 Speaker 3: I just don't like to wear a mask, you know. 450 00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:15,200 Speaker 2: I don't know, go ahead, Ian, Yeah. 451 00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:18,239 Speaker 7: No, people have psychologic issues and it is hard to 452 00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:22,320 Speaker 7: wear for long periods of time. You know, by and large, 453 00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:24,920 Speaker 7: the air quality in New York is not terrible. 454 00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:25,400 Speaker 4: They great. 455 00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:28,359 Speaker 7: It really is sort of low, medium and high under 456 00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:31,119 Speaker 7: fifty fifty to one hundred and over one hundred, so 457 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:33,400 Speaker 7: it was well over one hundred during the bad days, 458 00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:35,359 Speaker 7: and I would say for that, wear a mask. I 459 00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,119 Speaker 7: wore a mask when I left the office, you know, 460 00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:41,520 Speaker 7: an N ninety five. Most times in the city the 461 00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:44,360 Speaker 7: air quality is not that bad because of the changes, 462 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,399 Speaker 7: but certainly if you're near a smoky area or if 463 00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:51,000 Speaker 7: you have lung problems, I would play it safe. And 464 00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:54,840 Speaker 7: even getting a surgical mask and help cloth masks are useless. 465 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:57,240 Speaker 7: Bandana is that kind of thing. They didn't help with 466 00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:00,960 Speaker 7: COVID the you know, viral particles right through those. But 467 00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:04,880 Speaker 7: investing in a good either respirat or mask RUN ninety five, 468 00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 7: who knows in the future what other problems there may be. 469 00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:11,080 Speaker 7: New York was not really prepared for this, right you know, 470 00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:13,919 Speaker 7: we've ever seen it, and I think we need to 471 00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:17,000 Speaker 7: get prepared for other issues. You know, they're homeless on 472 00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:19,240 Speaker 7: the street, and we have a lot of people who 473 00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:22,240 Speaker 7: are vulnerable, and we need to plan for the future, 474 00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:24,640 Speaker 7: whether it's storms or whether it's air issues. 475 00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:26,919 Speaker 2: Hey, doctor Lespitter, One thing I did want to ask you, 476 00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:31,240 Speaker 2: what are the consequences for folks that, you know, even 477 00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:33,400 Speaker 2: if they're healthy in their lungs, just a few days 478 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:37,000 Speaker 2: of breathing in the air this week, or if we 479 00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:41,320 Speaker 2: continue to have you know, climate related or other you know, 480 00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:43,840 Speaker 2: fires and winds that are going to affect us O. 481 00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:46,199 Speaker 2: We have fine, we have more days like this in 482 00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:49,080 Speaker 2: New York City. What do we need to be concerned 483 00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:50,639 Speaker 2: about the long term impact? 484 00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:53,879 Speaker 7: Well, you know, we don't really know. Look, any smoke 485 00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:57,000 Speaker 7: exposure has some risk, and if you have lung disease 486 00:25:57,200 --> 00:26:00,840 Speaker 7: or you've had a past history of smoking, you're higher risk. 487 00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:05,560 Speaker 7: We do speak to your pulmonologist or general internist. We 488 00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:09,520 Speaker 7: do screen with cat scans. By and large temporary smoke 489 00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,800 Speaker 7: exposure we can get over so most healthy people, the 490 00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:16,520 Speaker 7: lungs can cleanse themselves to a degree particles can be 491 00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:20,760 Speaker 7: put out. But for prolonged exposure or if you have 492 00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:24,520 Speaker 7: industrial exposure, higher risk of lung cancer, and you do 493 00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:28,160 Speaker 7: need to touch base with your pulmonary specialist. Certainly, people 494 00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:31,280 Speaker 7: who have inhalers sometimes we increase the dose of those. 495 00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:34,160 Speaker 7: I would say, try and get out of the city 496 00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:36,800 Speaker 7: and get some clean air as much as you can 497 00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 7: to balance out your overall exposure. Go to the beach, 498 00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:42,560 Speaker 7: get some clean air. Obviously in the winter that's harder 499 00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:45,800 Speaker 7: to do, but I would definitely try and leave the city. 500 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:48,640 Speaker 2: Any I have a really important question. Is there any 501 00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:49,520 Speaker 2: help for Matt Miller? 502 00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:53,280 Speaker 3: I just want to know, Ian, it's a psychological thing. 503 00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:54,440 Speaker 3: That's not your specialty. 504 00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:58,040 Speaker 7: Right, that's great. I love his attitude. 505 00:26:58,040 --> 00:26:58,439 Speaker 4: It's key. 506 00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:01,800 Speaker 7: Next time we should speak about a new vitamin study 507 00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:06,840 Speaker 7: that's out that talks about vitamins and dementia multivitamins. There's 508 00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:09,840 Speaker 7: some conflicting data about that, but maybe we can talk 509 00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:12,679 Speaker 7: about that another time. I think it's fascinating. For a 510 00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:15,760 Speaker 7: long time we really said multivitamins don't help. There's a 511 00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:17,520 Speaker 7: little bit of evidence maybe they do. 512 00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:20,000 Speaker 2: That's fascinat Well, that's what we call a deep tease. 513 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:21,920 Speaker 2: And you did it. Well you're going to be back, 514 00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:23,960 Speaker 2: I know at a future date. Doctor Ian las Bader, 515 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:28,199 Speaker 2: Clinical Professor of Medicine at NYU Langoing Center here in 516 00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 2: New York City. 517 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:35,520 Speaker 6: A journal Now about you? 518 00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:36,080 Speaker 3: Let me drive? 519 00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:38,360 Speaker 4: Oh no, no, no, no, who's going to drive? 520 00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:41,880 Speaker 3: Hory please, I'll do the gravels. 521 00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:43,640 Speaker 2: I want to drive. 522 00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:46,840 Speaker 6: It's a good question. 523 00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:52,840 Speaker 1: Try this is the drive to the Globe. 524 00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:55,159 Speaker 6: Dot com comfing Well Bryer around shot it. 525 00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:56,960 Speaker 1: On on Bloemberg Radio. 526 00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,560 Speaker 2: All Right, everybody, We've got just under eighteen minutes left 527 00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:01,680 Speaker 2: in today's trading session, getting ready to wrap up the 528 00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,480 Speaker 2: Friday trade as well as the week. Carol Master, along 529 00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:07,200 Speaker 2: with Matt Miller, live in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio 530 00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:09,439 Speaker 2: on YouTube in Bloomberg Originals. I want to get right 531 00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:11,520 Speaker 2: to our guests because I'm curious, Matt, what Sam Stobell 532 00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:14,720 Speaker 2: has to say about that twenty percent move off of 533 00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:17,000 Speaker 2: that October twenty twenty two low on the S and 534 00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,960 Speaker 2: P five hundred. Sam, of course, is chief investment strategist 535 00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,600 Speaker 2: at CFRA on Zoom in New York City, somebody you 536 00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:25,200 Speaker 2: and I have been talking to for years. Sam, it 537 00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:28,879 Speaker 2: is in a couple of decades now, and I think it's. 538 00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:29,080 Speaker 3: A good thing. 539 00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:31,800 Speaker 2: It means we've all seen a lot of cycles. What 540 00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:33,639 Speaker 2: do you make of this cycle and this move off 541 00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:36,040 Speaker 2: the bottom for the S and P five hundred specifically, 542 00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:36,720 Speaker 2: let's start there. 543 00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:37,760 Speaker 4: Sure. 544 00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:39,800 Speaker 8: Well, Hey, Carol, good to talk to you again, Matt, 545 00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,560 Speaker 8: always good to talk to you, especially with the new beard. 546 00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:50,520 Speaker 8: But yeah, I think that we registered that twenty percent advance, 547 00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:53,520 Speaker 8: and now obviously people are wondering will the market be 548 00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:57,840 Speaker 8: like the messenger from Marathon who then stumbles and dies 549 00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:02,200 Speaker 8: shortly after announcing the news, or will it have legs 550 00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:05,320 Speaker 8: to run further? And I think history basically tells us 551 00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:09,120 Speaker 8: that we have further to go, and that following twenty 552 00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:13,640 Speaker 8: percent advances off of prior bear market lows, we typically 553 00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:16,800 Speaker 8: advance about fourteen and a half percent, and do so 554 00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:21,360 Speaker 8: over a five month period. So I would advise not 555 00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:25,360 Speaker 8: selling too quickly into this rally, at least if you 556 00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,160 Speaker 8: are a longer term investor, because chances are we have 557 00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:28,720 Speaker 8: a ways to go. 558 00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:29,200 Speaker 4: Hang on. 559 00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:33,400 Speaker 3: So I have a sam stoveall for those listening who 560 00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,360 Speaker 3: don't know, has like more data than the Bloomberg. So 561 00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:40,920 Speaker 3: when we hear about bear market rallies, and I've seen 562 00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:43,920 Speaker 3: a number myself in the past couple of decades, but 563 00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:46,520 Speaker 3: how often do you see a bear market rally that 564 00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:48,719 Speaker 3: gets up to a more than twenty percent gain from 565 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:50,880 Speaker 3: the bottom and then it fizzles out? 566 00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:55,280 Speaker 8: Well, if you're looking at the Nasdaq, because it's much 567 00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:58,040 Speaker 8: more volatile than the S and P. We've had eight 568 00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:02,880 Speaker 8: bear markets since the Nasdaq one hundred was created in 569 00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:05,840 Speaker 8: the late nineteen eighties, and a full half of them 570 00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:10,320 Speaker 8: experienced what I call bogus bottoms or fake outs where 571 00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:13,440 Speaker 8: the index was up by twenty percent only to turn 572 00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,000 Speaker 8: around and set an even lower low for the S 573 00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:19,120 Speaker 8: and P five hundred. However, we have only had three 574 00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:22,560 Speaker 8: such fake outs, and all three of them were confined 575 00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:25,680 Speaker 8: to the two mega meltdowns of two thousand and two 576 00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:29,840 Speaker 8: through two, as well as seven through nine. This bear 577 00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:33,600 Speaker 8: market I regard as a garden variety bear market, meaning 578 00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:37,400 Speaker 8: less than forty percent decline, and we have never had 579 00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:42,440 Speaker 8: a bogus bottom occur within a garden variety bullmarket. 580 00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:44,920 Speaker 3: Nice. Yeah, Because I was reading Savita s. A Vermani 581 00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:48,120 Speaker 3: and from Bank America, she said ninety two percent of 582 00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:51,320 Speaker 3: the time on the S and P five hundred, after 583 00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:54,760 Speaker 3: you get to a twenty percent rally from the bottom, 584 00:30:55,240 --> 00:31:00,720 Speaker 3: you have gains twelve months later. So in other words, 585 00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:03,480 Speaker 3: it's not a fake out exactly. 586 00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:06,719 Speaker 8: And actually the only thing that I think investors are 587 00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:09,320 Speaker 8: sort of worried that there could be some fake out 588 00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:12,520 Speaker 8: is why is it that this time around small caps 589 00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:15,920 Speaker 8: are not leading the way as they have done five 590 00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:19,600 Speaker 8: or six of the prior times, going back to nineteen 591 00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:22,680 Speaker 8: eighty for the Russell two thousand. This time around we're 592 00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:26,800 Speaker 8: up only about eleven percent versus the twenty one percent 593 00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:29,720 Speaker 8: for the S and P five hundred. So yeah, investors 594 00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:32,280 Speaker 8: are sort of scratching their heads. What's different this time? 595 00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:35,200 Speaker 2: Well, what's different maybe this time? And there's another story 596 00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:38,040 Speaker 2: on the Bloomberg talking about the disconnect between stocks and bonds, 597 00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:41,440 Speaker 2: suggesting a twenty percent downside risk for equities if bonds 598 00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:45,160 Speaker 2: are right in pricing inflation volatilities. According to some modeling 599 00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:48,040 Speaker 2: by JP Morgan Chase and Company strategists, if you look 600 00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:49,920 Speaker 2: at kind of the bond market trade in terms of 601 00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:52,680 Speaker 2: where I guess yield as saying, and there are concerns 602 00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:56,440 Speaker 2: about inflation volatility if that continues to be persistent, Sam, 603 00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:59,880 Speaker 2: is it potentially different time around? We've just come off 604 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:03,360 Speaker 2: several days of Bloomberg invest you know, top voices like 605 00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:06,800 Speaker 2: yourself in the investment community talking about the markets and 606 00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:10,360 Speaker 2: saying this is unusual times. We're coming off on precedent 607 00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:13,640 Speaker 2: amount of money that was pumped into the economy because 608 00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:17,080 Speaker 2: the global economy, because of the pandemic. We're not really 609 00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:19,560 Speaker 2: quite sure how it plays out. 610 00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:24,120 Speaker 8: Right. Well, the good news is last Monday I published 611 00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:27,120 Speaker 8: a report called Hike, Skip and a Jump, And what 612 00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:30,600 Speaker 8: it showed was that going back to the beginning of 613 00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:33,680 Speaker 8: when the FED actually announced FED Fund changes, prior to 614 00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:37,520 Speaker 8: that they announced only discount rate changes, that whenever we 615 00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:41,520 Speaker 8: did have that skip in the subsequent eight weeks, meaning 616 00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:45,200 Speaker 8: between those two FOMC meetings, the market was up eighty 617 00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:48,240 Speaker 8: eight percent of the time, rising about three point six 618 00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:51,760 Speaker 8: percent on average. So the good news is that if 619 00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:55,760 Speaker 8: the FED does indeed skip, as FED Fund's futures are 620 00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:59,440 Speaker 8: pointing to, that would be a positive sign. However, if 621 00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:02,880 Speaker 8: the FED basically either continues to raise or tells us 622 00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:06,640 Speaker 8: that no, we're nowhere near being done, then you know, 623 00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:10,280 Speaker 8: they could end up not only strangling this new bull market, 624 00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:15,160 Speaker 8: but could throw the economy into something much deeper than 625 00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:17,120 Speaker 8: the mild recession currently priced in. 626 00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:20,960 Speaker 3: Sam, I'm interested to know how you compare and contrast 627 00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:24,120 Speaker 3: this inflationary environment and the FED hikes that we've seen 628 00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:28,280 Speaker 3: with that of the seventies and eighties. You know, it 629 00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:30,840 Speaker 3: seems Powell doesn't want to be in Arthur Burns. Are 630 00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:32,080 Speaker 3: there parallels? 631 00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:37,920 Speaker 8: Well, certainly, I think by hearing Arthur I mean Arthur Powell, 632 00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:41,400 Speaker 8: hearing Jerome Powell say that he does not want to 633 00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:44,480 Speaker 8: repeat the mistakes of the nineteen seventies that that would 634 00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:47,120 Speaker 8: imply that they are going to be raising rates longer. 635 00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:49,760 Speaker 8: But at the same time, if you take a look 636 00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:52,560 Speaker 8: at the inflation numbers, we're going to be getting CPI 637 00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:56,720 Speaker 8: soon next week, we're going to be EPI. Both of 638 00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:59,960 Speaker 8: them continue to show a stare step down, and we're 639 00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:02,840 Speaker 8: finding that the Fed funds rate is now well above 640 00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:07,360 Speaker 8: both of those year on year changes. So that typically 641 00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:10,560 Speaker 8: is what happens close to the end of a rate 642 00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:14,759 Speaker 8: tightening cycle. And again I point to what happens after 643 00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:18,520 Speaker 8: the Fed stops raising rate. Historically they don't cut rates 644 00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:21,920 Speaker 8: for another nine months. So my belief is they're not 645 00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:24,200 Speaker 8: going to be cutting rates until the second quarter of 646 00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:27,840 Speaker 8: next year. But still the market is up thirteen percent 647 00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:31,879 Speaker 8: on average, with all sizes, styles, sectors, and ninety nine 648 00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:36,520 Speaker 8: percent of sub industries in positive territory over that timeframe. 649 00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:39,239 Speaker 2: So really quickly thirty seconds though, would you like to 650 00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:44,120 Speaker 2: see a more broadening out though of the market trade, Well, you. 651 00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:46,600 Speaker 8: Could say that it is fairly broad already because more 652 00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:49,279 Speaker 8: than fifty percent of the stocks in the S and 653 00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:52,879 Speaker 8: P five hundred are positive year to date, forty seven 654 00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:55,800 Speaker 8: percent of them are above the markets, the S and 655 00:34:55,880 --> 00:35:00,320 Speaker 8: P five hundred equal weight performance and a majority of 656 00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:05,040 Speaker 8: certainly the high growth areas are showing percentages above fifty. 657 00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:08,040 Speaker 8: But even a group like real estate has forty three 658 00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:10,840 Speaker 8: percent of its components this positive character. 659 00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:12,600 Speaker 2: If year, okay, got leave on that. 660 00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:13,759 Speaker 6: Now love the data points. 661 00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:15,520 Speaker 2: You're right, it doesn't win the Bloomberg. 662 00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:16,160 Speaker 4: I love it. 663 00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:16,880 Speaker 5: I love it. 664 00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:18,040 Speaker 3: Thank you so much. Sam. 665 00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:23,400 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. I'll available on Apple, Spotify, 666 00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:27,280 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday 667 00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:30,759 Speaker 1: afternoons from three to six Easterning on Bloomberg dot com, 668 00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:34,239 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. 669 00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:37,280 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 670 00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:39,759 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg. Jurmalone