WEBVTT - Bloomberg Wall Street Week: Rieder, Davis, Palmisano

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week. What's the state of

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<v Speaker 1>corporate governance? A defresent is a real issue to use.

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<v Speaker 1>Economy continues to send mixed signals, the financial stories that

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<v Speaker 1>cheap our world fed action to con concerns over dollar

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<v Speaker 1>liquidity and encouraging China data. The five hundred wealthiest people

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<v Speaker 1>in the world. Through the eyes of the most influential

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<v Speaker 1>voices Larry Summers, the former Treasury Secretary, Starbard, CEO, Kevin

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<v Speaker 1>Johnson sec Chairman j Clayton, Bloomberg Wall Street Week with

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<v Speaker 1>David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. Finally almost US stimulus steal

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<v Speaker 1>is all but done, and at Brexit deal appears to

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<v Speaker 1>be within reach. But the one thing we know for

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<v Speaker 1>sure is that we have a vaccine. This is Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston. Well, the Federal Reserve

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<v Speaker 1>is going to try and lower interest rates. That will help.

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<v Speaker 1>That will bring some figger back to the economy, but

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<v Speaker 1>it can only be mended by an increasing willingness on

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<v Speaker 1>the part of the public to buy goods, general confidence

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<v Speaker 1>in the system itself, and much of that has been

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<v Speaker 1>voted over a number of years. That was Pimco's bill

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<v Speaker 1>gross back in the Federal Reserve met again this week,

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<v Speaker 1>but gone in the days when it can restore vigors

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<v Speaker 1>the economy by cutting interest rates. Instead, FED chair j

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<v Speaker 1>pal tried to restore that vigor by assuring the markets

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<v Speaker 1>that the FED will continue to buy bonds until the

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<v Speaker 1>economy is substantially better than it is today. We asked

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<v Speaker 1>black Rocks rick reader whether those words were likely to

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<v Speaker 1>do the trick. I mean, I mean, they're they're on

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<v Speaker 1>a persistent movement to support the economy. I think there

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<v Speaker 1>was there was a lot of analysis that had said

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<v Speaker 1>that the FED was hawkish because they didn't increase the

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<v Speaker 1>weighted average maturity or they didn't actually increase YESID purchase program.

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<v Speaker 1>Anybody who describes this vet as hawkish is so misguided.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a fan that is just going to continue

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<v Speaker 1>to be there and be as accommodative. They know. They

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<v Speaker 1>said they're going to continue to ask a purchase program

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<v Speaker 1>at least as large, both in treasuries and mortgages. By

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<v Speaker 1>the way, I don't even think they need to increase

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<v Speaker 1>mortgages out all. I think they can shrink them. But

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<v Speaker 1>they're gonna They're gonna keep going, and they're going to

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<v Speaker 1>be incredibly supportive of the new administration and the fiscal stimulus.

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<v Speaker 1>From here, well, let's pick up on that exactly where

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<v Speaker 1>why are they sticking with this allocation for mortgages? You know?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I actually, well, I think the Fed is

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<v Speaker 1>doing a brilliant job this. I don't think they need

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<v Speaker 1>to do that. I mean, if you think about more,

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<v Speaker 1>there aren't enough mortgagees to purchase from what they're what

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<v Speaker 1>they're doing, the banks are dying for those assets and uh,

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<v Speaker 1>and the levels are incredibly low. And even if they

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<v Speaker 1>slowed down, the purchase program rates aren't mortgage rates aren't

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<v Speaker 1>moving higher. The demand for mortgage product is incredible. And

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<v Speaker 1>then you take the other side of it. The housing

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<v Speaker 1>market is an incredibly good shape. And if you think

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<v Speaker 1>about it, you know, one of the things that is

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<v Speaker 1>a risk for a particularly lower and middle income is

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<v Speaker 1>the housing market is doing so well that you'll continuously

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<v Speaker 1>increased home prices, which I would argue that is the

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<v Speaker 1>one part of inflation that I actually think is real.

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<v Speaker 1>And then quite frankly, it's burdensome to a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>the economy, a lot of particularly lower middle income. So anyway,

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<v Speaker 1>that part I don't other than signaling we're just not

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<v Speaker 1>gonna we're not gonna pull any accommodation. Um. I don't

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<v Speaker 1>think they need to do that. So, as I say,

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<v Speaker 1>the message out of the FED I thought was we

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<v Speaker 1>think it's going to start getting better, presumably large but

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<v Speaker 1>because of the vaccine, which we're hoping for so much.

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<v Speaker 1>At the same time, there's a real divergence, maybe even

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<v Speaker 1>a bifurcation in the marketplace, but whether it's individuals or

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<v Speaker 1>its companies between some people who are doing very very

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<v Speaker 1>well and some people are doing very very badly. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, David, you hit the nail on the head. Listen.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think this is you know what the central

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<v Speaker 1>bank does is you know, it's tools are blunt and

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of what happens is it lifts financial assets

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<v Speaker 1>and it creates a this bifurcation as you describe, and

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<v Speaker 1>it doesn't you know what the FED can do is

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<v Speaker 1>it sort of paves the runway for for other policy

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<v Speaker 1>to come in. Now you really need the fiscal and

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<v Speaker 1>the fiscal is where you can direct tax policy, where

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<v Speaker 1>you can direct where the stimulus gets to things like

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<v Speaker 1>state and local things like healthcare, spending, education, spending, etcetera.

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<v Speaker 1>Things that can actually a close that gap. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, now we actually are going to get what

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<v Speaker 1>I think, particularly when you think about chair yelling, I

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<v Speaker 1>still call it chair yelling the Treasury secretary. And now

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<v Speaker 1>you've got functionally two FED chairs that are going to

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<v Speaker 1>operate in concert with one another. And that's where you

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<v Speaker 1>get really effective policy when when fiscal monetary work hand

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<v Speaker 1>to glo up with one another. So is that constructive

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<v Speaker 1>or does that undermine the independence of the FED? I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>how closely do you want the two of them to

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<v Speaker 1>operate together You've called a sort of pilot and copilot. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a great question. I do believe in the in

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<v Speaker 1>the independence and I certainly know that people at the

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<v Speaker 1>FED really believe in the independence of the FED. However,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, you do create some coordination. By the way,

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<v Speaker 1>having where they're where they're not talking that is that

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<v Speaker 1>is a problem, um, but having some coordination coordination makes sense,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly as you described earlier, we've got a problem in

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<v Speaker 1>the country that we need to put more people to work.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, until vaccine starts to really get implemented, we

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<v Speaker 1>need to put more people to work, and we need

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<v Speaker 1>stabilize and account of employment dynamic that is real. And

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<v Speaker 1>so you know that that idea that the FED is

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<v Speaker 1>going to neutralize the debt, that the that the that

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<v Speaker 1>the fiscal is going to put on. And by the way,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I think I think of Larry Summer is

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<v Speaker 1>gonna talk about this, their paper that they wrote on

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<v Speaker 1>the system can actually withstand more debt is a hundred

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<v Speaker 1>percent right and as long as and a big part

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<v Speaker 1>of it is the FED is keeping rates low, so

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<v Speaker 1>the interest burden on the economy is not onerous. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>no question. And this goes to Larry Summer's secular stagnation

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<v Speaker 1>that the problem we have is too much savings, not

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<v Speaker 1>too little, that we need to actually be investing in

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<v Speaker 1>spending some money. The question always is, isn't it how

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<v Speaker 1>do you spend that money? Okay, you can borrow really cheap,

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<v Speaker 1>but it depends on how you how you spend it

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<v Speaker 1>or invest it. It's definitely right. By the way, I

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<v Speaker 1>think we're at a point in time today. What Larry

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<v Speaker 1>says is dead right is the amount of savings. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>you think about the liquidity in the system, what's been created,

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<v Speaker 1>the aging demographic. I know we've talked about for years pensions,

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<v Speaker 1>life insurance companies that need the ability to fund is

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<v Speaker 1>extraordinary savings do outweigh the sets by a lot, and

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<v Speaker 1>that's why you're seeing appreciation and so many assets across

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<v Speaker 1>across different markets. But you're right, I mean there's different

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<v Speaker 1>return on equities as it were, uh return on equity

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<v Speaker 1>possibility spending on how the government spends the money. I

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<v Speaker 1>actually think we're at a point in time today that

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<v Speaker 1>the velocity of tax dollars working their way through that

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<v Speaker 1>comes on the backside of fiscal um quite tranquility, lowers

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<v Speaker 1>the bar for what those returns need to be for

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<v Speaker 1>those government programs. But like you say, some are obviously

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<v Speaker 1>much more efficacious than others. And but I truly think

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<v Speaker 1>that that quite frankly, most of the fiscal stimas you

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<v Speaker 1>put in today, is gonna It's gonna create a velocity

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<v Speaker 1>and which impacts the monetary base that the FED is

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<v Speaker 1>created in a very positive way. That was Rick Reader's

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<v Speaker 1>CIO for Global fixed Income and head of the Global

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<v Speaker 1>Allocation Investment team at black Rock, coming up a major

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<v Speaker 1>cyber attack on the U. S. Government, pointing out again

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<v Speaker 1>how vulnerable we are, something that Sam Paulisano, the former

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<v Speaker 1>head of IBM, knows about that's next on Wall Street

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<v Speaker 1>Week on Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week with

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<v Speaker 1>David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. We learned this week about

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<v Speaker 1>a massive hack of government computers, and we still don't know, frankly,

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<v Speaker 1>how many were hacked or how much data was taken.

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<v Speaker 1>It was bad enough that the National Security Advisor had

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<v Speaker 1>to come back from his trip overseas to try to

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<v Speaker 1>assess the situation. To help us assess the situation, we

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<v Speaker 1>now have the former chairman and CEO of IBM, Sam Paulisano.

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<v Speaker 1>Sam also served as the vice chair at Prison Obama's

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<v Speaker 1>Commission trying to deal with cybersecurity, knows just a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit about it, and now as an institute to try

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<v Speaker 1>to address the issues. So when you heard this this week,

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<v Speaker 1>what did you make of it? My first reaction when

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<v Speaker 1>I heard about it, quite honestly, I thought it was

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<v Speaker 1>the Chinese. And I'll tell you why. I say that,

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<v Speaker 1>because if you look at his stark, stark pattern of

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<v Speaker 1>the various types of attacks have occurred in the past,

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<v Speaker 1>that this is more like the Chinese trying to get

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<v Speaker 1>access to information and data, and then the Russians had

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<v Speaker 1>their own strategies and we can talk about you know, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>election interference and the like, as well as in the

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<v Speaker 1>financial side of transactions. So however, obviously that's not the case.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, this time it was the Russians and whatever

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<v Speaker 1>they call themselves, Cozy Bear Apt. Twenty nine, whatever it

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<v Speaker 1>happens to be. I think that from what I've read

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<v Speaker 1>and what I hear from my friends in the government,

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<v Speaker 1>that they're pretty confident that's who it was this time. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>having said all that, I mean, I think it does

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<v Speaker 1>wake the nation up to the risk we faced if

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<v Speaker 1>we don't do something better cybersecurity and our infrastructures. So

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<v Speaker 1>how does this happen? Sam? And for those of us

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<v Speaker 1>who don't understand this world the way you do, this

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<v Speaker 1>is not the first hack we've told we've heard about,

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<v Speaker 1>either of government computers or often of private sector computers,

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<v Speaker 1>and yet it seems it was quite vulnerable. This organization,

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<v Speaker 1>solar Wins, a private company, has something like two or

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<v Speaker 1>seventy five or three hundred thousand different customers, about eighteen

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<v Speaker 1>thousands they say might have been affected here, but it

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<v Speaker 1>included things like the Treasury Department and the State Department,

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<v Speaker 1>and that the Department of Homeland Security. The I R s,

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<v Speaker 1>how how can we need that vulnerable at this point? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, actually, David, if you if you kind of

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<v Speaker 1>stand back from this hack, uh, And there's a pattern

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<v Speaker 1>of this. In fact, we study this in the Obama

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<v Speaker 1>Commission and my my as you mentioned, my faint Tank

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<v Speaker 1>is focused on this as well. I think about it

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<v Speaker 1>as your supply chain. In this particular case. Solar Wind

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<v Speaker 1>is a provider of services, network services, but services to

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<v Speaker 1>all these various entities, and that's the nature of their business. However,

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<v Speaker 1>there's they're very innovative, they're very good, they're growing very

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<v Speaker 1>very quickly. But but perhaps they weren't as thorough as

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<v Speaker 1>they needed to be as far as securing their particular

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<v Speaker 1>platform itself. I don't know that. But the suspicion is

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<v Speaker 1>that they were able to get in. Uh. The hackers

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<v Speaker 1>were able to get in and to what they would

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<v Speaker 1>call a backdoor or vulnerability, and then through that vulnerability

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<v Speaker 1>they were in there for a long time. And that's

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<v Speaker 1>where they go on detected. Which is the complexity of

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<v Speaker 1>trying to figure out how this happened and who they

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<v Speaker 1>are and what the impact is because they've been kind

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<v Speaker 1>of invisible, the all of a sudden something happens with

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<v Speaker 1>they become apparent. Uh neither a big data sets start

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<v Speaker 1>to disappear or wherever that happens to be, or the

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<v Speaker 1>government sees what's going on and they have to begin

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<v Speaker 1>to react. But the point of it is is the

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<v Speaker 1>key is the vulnerability of people's supply chains. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>if you were going to go hack the US government,

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<v Speaker 1>you wouldn't go hack the military or n s A

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<v Speaker 1>or c i A. You would hack the civilion side

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<v Speaker 1>of government, which is not nearly as secure coming through

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<v Speaker 1>one of their providers, their service providers. No different than

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<v Speaker 1>if you're going to attack hack a bank. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>to go after a bank that's spending billions of dollars

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<v Speaker 1>or hundreds of millions of dollars to protect their infrastructure

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<v Speaker 1>is very challenging. However, if you go through someone within

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<v Speaker 1>their supply chains, from small innovative company that they're using

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<v Speaker 1>to either help with technology or just sell their products

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<v Speaker 1>and those sorts of things, they're the ones that are

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<v Speaker 1>the most vulnerable, and then therefore you your entity is

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<v Speaker 1>vulnerable because they're part of your operations. Well, that was

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<v Speaker 1>the question. How dependent are we in the government on

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<v Speaker 1>those independent contractors, and not just the contractors, but the

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<v Speaker 1>subcontractors and the subcontracts to the subcontractors. We're very dependent

0:11:05.440 --> 0:11:07.400
<v Speaker 1>on them. And you saw that not just in cyber

0:11:07.480 --> 0:11:09.360
<v Speaker 1>go back to the pandemic when all of a sudden

0:11:09.400 --> 0:11:11.920
<v Speaker 1>we couldn't get PPE and those sorts of things. So

0:11:11.960 --> 0:11:14.480
<v Speaker 1>there's a total dependency on the supply chain and those

0:11:14.520 --> 0:11:17.760
<v Speaker 1>suppliers within the government. That's not a bad thing, I mean,

0:11:17.840 --> 0:11:20.400
<v Speaker 1>quite honestly. But what it what it requires is the

0:11:20.440 --> 0:11:24.160
<v Speaker 1>government established standards, just like a company would establish standards

0:11:24.200 --> 0:11:26.400
<v Speaker 1>that if you're going to be a provider of services

0:11:26.400 --> 0:11:30.080
<v Speaker 1>to us, whether that's software, people, whatever it happens to be,

0:11:30.200 --> 0:11:32.720
<v Speaker 1>you have to comply with these cyber standards. Now, there's

0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:35.880
<v Speaker 1>a standard that was established called NISTS by in the

0:11:35.920 --> 0:11:38.800
<v Speaker 1>Commerce Department that we worked on years ago. That's a

0:11:38.920 --> 0:11:42.080
<v Speaker 1>very good standard by the way to secure the infrastructure,

0:11:42.120 --> 0:11:44.480
<v Speaker 1>and a lot of the privact sector companies are complying

0:11:44.559 --> 0:11:46.760
<v Speaker 1>with that. What we did in my little think tank

0:11:46.960 --> 0:11:49.720
<v Speaker 1>would think of the cyber readiest incident. We felt that

0:11:49.760 --> 0:11:52.160
<v Speaker 1>people were going to focus on these very small businesses

0:11:52.400 --> 0:11:54.400
<v Speaker 1>so we created a whole set of tools that we

0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:57.280
<v Speaker 1>distribute for free. I mean they're actually for freeworred nonprofits.

0:11:57.280 --> 0:11:59.120
<v Speaker 1>So we can do these sorts of things, and we

0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:02.559
<v Speaker 1>probably have hundreds of thousands of subscribers now, even small

0:12:02.600 --> 0:12:05.480
<v Speaker 1>spots with three or four employees, not just companies or

0:12:05.520 --> 0:12:08.520
<v Speaker 1>government agencies, to give them a basic level of protection

0:12:08.880 --> 0:12:11.120
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to cyber threats. Now, the point of

0:12:11.160 --> 0:12:13.680
<v Speaker 1>it again is why are we doing this? Is because

0:12:13.679 --> 0:12:17.400
<v Speaker 1>if your General Motors or Exonmobile or some large entity,

0:12:17.640 --> 0:12:20.400
<v Speaker 1>you have all these small little partners involved in your infrastructure,

0:12:20.480 --> 0:12:23.439
<v Speaker 1>drilling operation, card dealerships, etcetera, etcetera. So you want to

0:12:23.440 --> 0:12:27.560
<v Speaker 1>be able to protect yourself from their vulnerabilities, not just

0:12:27.679 --> 0:12:31.079
<v Speaker 1>your own. From a cyber perspective, we have a president

0:12:31.080 --> 0:12:34.560
<v Speaker 1>like Biden coming to office January twenty. Who does he

0:12:34.679 --> 0:12:37.000
<v Speaker 1>have responsible for this? Or who does the current president,

0:12:37.040 --> 0:12:38.920
<v Speaker 1>President Trump have response to this? Who does he call

0:12:39.000 --> 0:12:41.080
<v Speaker 1>up when he hears about something like this? Well, that's

0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:43.679
<v Speaker 1>a great thing. That is a great question, my friend,

0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:46.720
<v Speaker 1>that is unbelievably a great question. I would say they

0:12:46.720 --> 0:12:48.920
<v Speaker 1>should start with somebody within the White House staff. But

0:12:49.000 --> 0:12:51.800
<v Speaker 1>let's talk about it as it is. Today versus as

0:12:51.800 --> 0:12:54.680
<v Speaker 1>maybe a point of view, as it should be. As

0:12:54.720 --> 0:12:58.480
<v Speaker 1>it is today, there is an agency UH called the

0:12:58.520 --> 0:13:02.680
<v Speaker 1>Cybersecurity and infash Structure Security Agency. It's part of the

0:13:02.720 --> 0:13:05.960
<v Speaker 1>Department of Homeland Security that it's responsible for these kinds

0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:09.560
<v Speaker 1>of hacks, for agency protection, pandemics, all sorts of things.

0:13:09.559 --> 0:13:12.240
<v Speaker 1>But they are the responsible agency that does these things.

0:13:12.600 --> 0:13:15.520
<v Speaker 1>As you might recall, there's nobody leading that agency at

0:13:15.520 --> 0:13:17.720
<v Speaker 1>this point in time because they were all fired. So

0:13:17.800 --> 0:13:21.040
<v Speaker 1>there's no one in the agency at the agency level

0:13:21.160 --> 0:13:25.000
<v Speaker 1>who is in charge of leading these operations. There's also

0:13:25.120 --> 0:13:27.440
<v Speaker 1>no one in the White House staff either, by the way,

0:13:27.720 --> 0:13:31.360
<v Speaker 1>because as UH it was part of the focus in

0:13:31.360 --> 0:13:35.240
<v Speaker 1>the National Security Council of all administration. We are proposed

0:13:35.360 --> 0:13:37.640
<v Speaker 1>in the Executive Order that they elevate it to give

0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:40.160
<v Speaker 1>it established a higher set of priorities. That would be

0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:42.880
<v Speaker 1>a visible way to create priority within the government is

0:13:43.000 --> 0:13:47.280
<v Speaker 1>elevate that person or that individual. Since then, that actually

0:13:47.280 --> 0:13:50.400
<v Speaker 1>has been kind of lessen. Their responsibilities have been lessened,

0:13:50.440 --> 0:13:53.079
<v Speaker 1>and therefore obviously their focused and their impact has been lesson.

0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:56.040
<v Speaker 1>So I'm the President of the United States, sitting President

0:13:56.080 --> 0:13:58.880
<v Speaker 1>United States, and I wanted to call somebody from my

0:13:58.960 --> 0:14:00.920
<v Speaker 1>staff in my office. Is that tell me, hey, what's

0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:03.640
<v Speaker 1>going on? What should we be doing? There's no one there.

0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:07.040
<v Speaker 1>Do we have the people in the United States government

0:14:07.120 --> 0:14:10.760
<v Speaker 1>somewhere working somewhere who have the technical expertise to deal

0:14:10.800 --> 0:14:12.760
<v Speaker 1>with this? I mean, this is very special stuff. Certainly

0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:15.320
<v Speaker 1>I wouldn't know how to go about dealing with it.

0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:17.880
<v Speaker 1>But do we have the level of sophistication in the

0:14:17.960 --> 0:14:20.680
<v Speaker 1>people we have employed in the government. Yes, we do,

0:14:20.800 --> 0:14:22.920
<v Speaker 1>but it's it's it's more and I'll call it the

0:14:23.000 --> 0:14:27.200
<v Speaker 1>National Security and the Defense establishment. They really are excellent skills.

0:14:27.320 --> 0:14:30.680
<v Speaker 1>If you look at what they referred to as dot mill,

0:14:30.960 --> 0:14:33.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, uh U S Government, Dot Mill, Brouss, dot gov,

0:14:33.760 --> 0:14:37.640
<v Speaker 1>which is the civilian side, they're very very good at this.

0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:40.680
<v Speaker 1>They have good infrastructure. They actually do a pretty good

0:14:40.720 --> 0:14:43.920
<v Speaker 1>job in defending their own infrastructure as well as our country.

0:14:44.280 --> 0:14:46.320
<v Speaker 1>It's when you get to the civilian side of government.

0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:50.520
<v Speaker 1>You know, you mentioned Treasury. The previous acts were hacks,

0:14:50.520 --> 0:14:53.480
<v Speaker 1>were OPI, the Office of Personnel and Management O p M,

0:14:54.000 --> 0:14:56.800
<v Speaker 1>I R S, etcetera, etcetera. They don't have the same

0:14:56.880 --> 0:15:00.120
<v Speaker 1>level as skill and their infrastructure is very antiquated. That

0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:04.640
<v Speaker 1>was Sam Paulisano, former chairman and CEO of IBM coming up.

0:15:04.800 --> 0:15:07.840
<v Speaker 1>The vaccine is good news, but how good is it?

0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:10.840
<v Speaker 1>And what do we need to do until everybody gets it?

0:15:11.400 --> 0:15:19.600
<v Speaker 1>This is Wall Street Week on Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg

0:15:19.640 --> 0:15:23.640
<v Speaker 1>Wall Street Week with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. Well,

0:15:23.680 --> 0:15:26.400
<v Speaker 1>every single day seems to bring new news about vaccines,

0:15:26.440 --> 0:15:31.080
<v Speaker 1>but also new instances of COVID nineteen infections and hospitalizations

0:15:31.120 --> 0:15:33.640
<v Speaker 1>and yes, deaths. The question then, is how do we

0:15:33.640 --> 0:15:35.680
<v Speaker 1>get from the current crisis to the time when we

0:15:35.680 --> 0:15:38.120
<v Speaker 1>can start to get our lives back together again. Well,

0:15:38.160 --> 0:15:40.160
<v Speaker 1>partners in Health is leading the way in that with

0:15:40.240 --> 0:15:43.800
<v Speaker 1>its pioneering and the in testing and in tracing across

0:15:43.880 --> 0:15:46.440
<v Speaker 1>the country. Welcome to the CEO of Partner's Health. She

0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:48.720
<v Speaker 1>is Dr Sheila Davis. So, Dr Davis, thank you so

0:15:48.760 --> 0:15:50.320
<v Speaker 1>much for being with us. Give us a sense of

0:15:50.360 --> 0:15:52.480
<v Speaker 1>what you were doing at partners in Health. Yeah, in

0:15:52.520 --> 0:15:55.760
<v Speaker 1>the US, we've been working closely, certainly through the in

0:15:55.800 --> 0:15:58.640
<v Speaker 1>the state of Massachusetts at the invitation of Governor Baker,

0:15:58.880 --> 0:16:01.920
<v Speaker 1>and then in eleven other jurisdictions in the US who

0:16:01.920 --> 0:16:04.240
<v Speaker 1>have asked us to come in and help, and we've

0:16:04.320 --> 0:16:07.840
<v Speaker 1>taken lessons learned from our work around the world in

0:16:07.960 --> 0:16:10.800
<v Speaker 1>Haiti and Sierra Leone in other places on how to

0:16:10.840 --> 0:16:14.880
<v Speaker 1>actually do contact tracing as one piece of a comprehensive plan.

0:16:15.480 --> 0:16:18.360
<v Speaker 1>We really need a strong public health system, and this

0:16:18.760 --> 0:16:21.680
<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen has illuminated I think that in the U

0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:25.440
<v Speaker 1>s we're really lacking a robust public health response. Well,

0:16:25.440 --> 0:16:27.520
<v Speaker 1>that's one of the interesting things here. I heard someone say,

0:16:27.560 --> 0:16:29.640
<v Speaker 1>I think Larry Summers actually said we've over invested in

0:16:29.640 --> 0:16:32.360
<v Speaker 1>private health, under investment in public health, as you say,

0:16:32.680 --> 0:16:34.920
<v Speaker 1>partners in health. Originally really in Haiti, but you've done

0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:37.840
<v Speaker 1>an extensive word in other countries, including Rwanda, elsewhere around

0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:39.840
<v Speaker 1>the world. What can we learn from some of the

0:16:39.920 --> 0:16:42.760
<v Speaker 1>less developed countries that can really be applied and we

0:16:42.840 --> 0:16:45.560
<v Speaker 1>need here in the United States of America. Yeah, I

0:16:45.600 --> 0:16:47.360
<v Speaker 1>think it's a great question. You know, there's a lot

0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:50.360
<v Speaker 1>we can learn. We know that other countries that do

0:16:50.400 --> 0:16:52.680
<v Speaker 1>not have the same investment in health have done much

0:16:52.720 --> 0:16:55.840
<v Speaker 1>better through this pandemic. And I think a lot of

0:16:55.880 --> 0:16:59.680
<v Speaker 1>it is because there is a comprehensive healthcare system that

0:17:00.160 --> 0:17:03.440
<v Speaker 1>have a public health model that includes contact tracing, that

0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:07.359
<v Speaker 1>includes much more of people embedded in the community like

0:17:07.520 --> 0:17:11.119
<v Speaker 1>community health workers. We still need high tech i c

0:17:11.359 --> 0:17:14.199
<v Speaker 1>u s in all the places that we work, but

0:17:14.320 --> 0:17:17.359
<v Speaker 1>we definitely can have lessons learned from Rwanda, which has

0:17:17.400 --> 0:17:21.200
<v Speaker 1>done a fantastic pantemic control and other places, and how

0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:24.560
<v Speaker 1>do we infuse those into the US health system and

0:17:24.600 --> 0:17:28.480
<v Speaker 1>really build a system that's not reliant just on hospitals

0:17:29.080 --> 0:17:32.320
<v Speaker 1>as the pinnacle of all of the healthcare. We've seen

0:17:32.400 --> 0:17:35.399
<v Speaker 1>the testing ramp up from very very modest origins, and

0:17:35.440 --> 0:17:37.840
<v Speaker 1>now it seems to be moving along in most of

0:17:37.840 --> 0:17:39.920
<v Speaker 1>the United States. At the same time, I wonder about

0:17:39.920 --> 0:17:42.120
<v Speaker 1>the tracing part of it, because I know you're very

0:17:42.200 --> 0:17:44.919
<v Speaker 1>involved in that. We have reports, for example out of

0:17:45.320 --> 0:17:49.000
<v Speaker 1>New Jersey, for example, where we had reports from Governor

0:17:49.160 --> 0:17:52.400
<v Speaker 1>Murphy that maybe sev the people contacted don't comply, don't

0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:55.440
<v Speaker 1>cooperate in helping with the tracing, you know. I think

0:17:55.440 --> 0:17:58.600
<v Speaker 1>what we've found is that when people are when we're

0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:01.800
<v Speaker 1>able to also assess up their needs are a lot

0:18:01.800 --> 0:18:04.720
<v Speaker 1>of people are not able to isolate a quarantine safely

0:18:04.840 --> 0:18:08.560
<v Speaker 1>if they don't have the social support that's needed. People

0:18:08.640 --> 0:18:12.040
<v Speaker 1>need diapers, people need formula, people need food. So a

0:18:12.040 --> 0:18:15.320
<v Speaker 1>core component of what we embedded in the Massachusetts program

0:18:15.359 --> 0:18:18.800
<v Speaker 1>as well as um with other places we're working, is

0:18:18.840 --> 0:18:23.040
<v Speaker 1>that there's a direct connection to when our contact tracers

0:18:23.080 --> 0:18:25.840
<v Speaker 1>reach out, which is the advantage of versus a text

0:18:25.960 --> 0:18:29.720
<v Speaker 1>or some other type of of tech option, and assessing

0:18:29.760 --> 0:18:31.720
<v Speaker 1>do people need help, that they need a place to

0:18:31.800 --> 0:18:35.320
<v Speaker 1>say where they can safely isolate from their family members.

0:18:35.359 --> 0:18:38.720
<v Speaker 1>So it really is has to be a more of

0:18:38.760 --> 0:18:41.760
<v Speaker 1>a safety net model. So I think most people do

0:18:41.880 --> 0:18:44.800
<v Speaker 1>want to comply, but many people don't have the ability

0:18:44.840 --> 0:18:47.000
<v Speaker 1>to have a separate wing in their home or a

0:18:47.000 --> 0:18:49.520
<v Speaker 1>separate way to have food brought in. Now that sounds

0:18:49.520 --> 0:18:51.840
<v Speaker 1>like a pretty labor intensive effort. As you say, it's

0:18:51.880 --> 0:18:54.280
<v Speaker 1>not just a technological fix to figure out who's got

0:18:54.280 --> 0:18:55.880
<v Speaker 1>it and who might give it to somebody, But how

0:18:55.880 --> 0:18:57.679
<v Speaker 1>do we support you in fact you have and you

0:18:57.720 --> 0:19:00.400
<v Speaker 1>have to isolate or you have to quarantine somehow. How

0:19:00.480 --> 0:19:02.320
<v Speaker 1>labor intensive is this? How many people do have working

0:19:02.320 --> 0:19:06.400
<v Speaker 1>on this, you know in Massachusetts in collaboration with other

0:19:06.480 --> 0:19:09.119
<v Speaker 1>members of the state agencies, which has been a phenomenal

0:19:09.119 --> 0:19:11.600
<v Speaker 1>experience for us, and we've learned a lot. We have

0:19:12.280 --> 0:19:15.240
<v Speaker 1>now over two thousand people who are working on this effort,

0:19:15.520 --> 0:19:17.800
<v Speaker 1>But really there are people who are picking up the

0:19:17.840 --> 0:19:20.920
<v Speaker 1>phone talking to people um, you know, assessing what their

0:19:20.960 --> 0:19:24.480
<v Speaker 1>needs are and connecting them to existing resources in the state.

0:19:24.920 --> 0:19:27.560
<v Speaker 1>So a lot of it was not Certainly some new

0:19:27.600 --> 0:19:30.880
<v Speaker 1>money was infused for the social support efforts, but part

0:19:30.880 --> 0:19:33.639
<v Speaker 1>of it was also making sure that we're connecting the dots.

0:19:34.040 --> 0:19:37.240
<v Speaker 1>And if we look at the overall cost of what

0:19:37.359 --> 0:19:40.480
<v Speaker 1>it costs to have robots public health programs, it's much

0:19:40.560 --> 0:19:43.960
<v Speaker 1>cheaper in the long run than a few days, weeks

0:19:44.040 --> 0:19:46.520
<v Speaker 1>or months in a hospital, which is the most expensive

0:19:46.560 --> 0:19:49.960
<v Speaker 1>place certainly to have care. How widely distributed is this

0:19:50.000 --> 0:19:52.360
<v Speaker 1>the United States? I mean you've mentioned Massachusetts. I remember

0:19:52.440 --> 0:19:55.240
<v Speaker 1>the Governor of Massachusetts at the news conference announcing early

0:19:55.280 --> 0:19:56.800
<v Speaker 1>on that he was going to turn to partners and

0:19:56.800 --> 0:19:59.200
<v Speaker 1>help to help them on the tracing how far beyond

0:19:59.280 --> 0:20:03.280
<v Speaker 1>Massachusetts it's gone. So we're now currently working in eleven

0:20:03.320 --> 0:20:07.240
<v Speaker 1>different jurisdictions, and it's anywhere from states to counties to

0:20:07.400 --> 0:20:11.240
<v Speaker 1>working with mayor's office of offices. And we're also taking

0:20:11.320 --> 0:20:14.440
<v Speaker 1>lessons learned and having a learning collaborative, which is an

0:20:14.440 --> 0:20:18.399
<v Speaker 1>open sourced ability for UM lessons learned to be shared

0:20:18.440 --> 0:20:21.359
<v Speaker 1>from Illinois to North Carolina and in a way that

0:20:21.400 --> 0:20:24.359
<v Speaker 1>we're continuing to learn from each other. So we have

0:20:24.600 --> 0:20:28.240
<v Speaker 1>staff embedded in all of these different places and they

0:20:28.240 --> 0:20:33.680
<v Speaker 1>are providing technical support. They're looking at um connecting for convening,

0:20:33.720 --> 0:20:37.600
<v Speaker 1>for knowledge sharing, and also we're really um committed to

0:20:37.600 --> 0:20:41.040
<v Speaker 1>advocacy and that we're using this moment to also look

0:20:41.080 --> 0:20:43.240
<v Speaker 1>at how do we have a better health system in

0:20:43.240 --> 0:20:47.000
<v Speaker 1>the US that really focuses on those who are who

0:20:47.080 --> 0:20:49.800
<v Speaker 1>need it most and those who have been most disproportionately

0:20:49.840 --> 0:20:53.639
<v Speaker 1>impacted by COVID nineteen. That was Dr Sheila Davis, CEO

0:20:53.840 --> 0:20:56.359
<v Speaker 1>of Partners and Health, coming off. We wrap up our

0:20:56.400 --> 0:20:59.360
<v Speaker 1>week as we do every week, with Larry Summer's off Harvard.

0:21:00.080 --> 0:21:15.080
<v Speaker 1>This is Wall Street Week on Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg

0:21:15.160 --> 0:21:19.440
<v Speaker 1>Wall Street Week with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. As

0:21:19.480 --> 0:21:22.159
<v Speaker 1>we do every week, we conclude our week with Larry Summers,

0:21:22.160 --> 0:21:25.600
<v Speaker 1>our special contributor, former treasure Secretary of Harvard. So Larry,

0:21:25.760 --> 0:21:28.560
<v Speaker 1>great to have you back with us. We finally, finally

0:21:28.640 --> 0:21:31.240
<v Speaker 1>are gonna get that stimulus about nine billion dollars. What

0:21:31.280 --> 0:21:35.040
<v Speaker 1>do you make of it? Better than the alternative? Good

0:21:35.080 --> 0:21:41.880
<v Speaker 1>insurance against things going wrong? Glad to see more investments

0:21:41.960 --> 0:21:47.240
<v Speaker 1>in testing. Really sorry to see that we're not supporting

0:21:47.359 --> 0:21:51.320
<v Speaker 1>state and local governments. It's not a healthy thing that

0:21:51.440 --> 0:21:54.560
<v Speaker 1>we couldn't reach some kind of compromise on the liability

0:21:54.640 --> 0:21:59.520
<v Speaker 1>issue and the state and local government issue. That's really

0:21:59.560 --> 0:22:03.959
<v Speaker 1>a very poor reflection on our system, and I'm not

0:22:04.000 --> 0:22:06.199
<v Speaker 1>sure we need it. And across the word set of

0:22:06.320 --> 0:22:12.800
<v Speaker 1>checks for households at this date, given the vaccine is

0:22:12.840 --> 0:22:18.399
<v Speaker 1>on the way, given that there's very substantial accumulated savings

0:22:18.440 --> 0:22:21.879
<v Speaker 1>in large parts of the household sector. So I'm glad

0:22:21.920 --> 0:22:24.360
<v Speaker 1>to see that stimulus is coming. I'm glad to see

0:22:24.400 --> 0:22:28.600
<v Speaker 1>help for small business. I'm glad to see continuation of

0:22:29.200 --> 0:22:32.560
<v Speaker 1>unemployment insurance. But this is not as good a bill

0:22:32.600 --> 0:22:35.880
<v Speaker 1>as we could have had. Still, it's better than I expected,

0:22:36.119 --> 0:22:38.960
<v Speaker 1>uh two weeks ago, and we should be grateful for that.

0:22:39.320 --> 0:22:41.680
<v Speaker 1>So so pick up on your point about checks going

0:22:41.720 --> 0:22:44.800
<v Speaker 1>to everybody, regardless of what their particular needs are not.

0:22:45.240 --> 0:22:47.919
<v Speaker 1>We heard from Chair J. Powell of the Federal Reserve

0:22:48.040 --> 0:22:51.159
<v Speaker 1>this week saying he thinks overall that the prospects are

0:22:51.200 --> 0:22:53.960
<v Speaker 1>brightening for these economy in we have a rough patch

0:22:54.040 --> 0:22:56.080
<v Speaker 1>to go through, but we do have a vaccine coming.

0:22:56.119 --> 0:22:59.440
<v Speaker 1>But he also pointed out that really below that top

0:22:59.480 --> 0:23:01.760
<v Speaker 1>line number or there are some people doing very very well,

0:23:01.800 --> 0:23:04.600
<v Speaker 1>whether it's individuals or corporations or and other people doing

0:23:04.840 --> 0:23:07.840
<v Speaker 1>really not well at all. What can we do about

0:23:07.920 --> 0:23:11.960
<v Speaker 1>that part of the problem. Look, it's a case shaped recovery.

0:23:12.520 --> 0:23:15.639
<v Speaker 1>There's no question that for people who can sit in

0:23:15.680 --> 0:23:20.200
<v Speaker 1>the solitary splendor of their homes uh doing their work

0:23:20.359 --> 0:23:27.440
<v Speaker 1>by zoom, having their groceries uh delivered um with more

0:23:27.520 --> 0:23:33.120
<v Speaker 1>family around than uh usual, this has not been an

0:23:33.119 --> 0:23:37.280
<v Speaker 1>agonizing period. For others who work with their hands, who

0:23:37.359 --> 0:23:42.119
<v Speaker 1>are providing uh those uh deliveries, who don't have a

0:23:42.280 --> 0:23:45.639
<v Speaker 1>kind of space to be fully safe, and may not

0:23:45.800 --> 0:23:48.520
<v Speaker 1>even have a kind of cash flow to be able

0:23:48.560 --> 0:23:51.920
<v Speaker 1>to buy both their medicines and their food, it's been

0:23:51.960 --> 0:23:56.040
<v Speaker 1>a very very difficult period. This is why we need

0:23:56.119 --> 0:24:00.879
<v Speaker 1>a more just and generous society. We need a stronger

0:24:01.359 --> 0:24:07.919
<v Speaker 1>set of refundable tax credits, particularly the childcare tax credit.

0:24:08.480 --> 0:24:11.920
<v Speaker 1>Above all, though, we need to run this economy strong

0:24:12.359 --> 0:24:16.360
<v Speaker 1>and have an economy where the dominant theme is jobs

0:24:16.400 --> 0:24:20.119
<v Speaker 1>trying to find workers rather than the dominant theme being

0:24:20.160 --> 0:24:23.960
<v Speaker 1>workers trying to find jobs. If we do that then

0:24:24.000 --> 0:24:28.680
<v Speaker 1>the engine of capitalism will be harnessed UH towards fairness.

0:24:28.760 --> 0:24:33.760
<v Speaker 1>People will be sending buses into disadvantaged communities to find

0:24:33.840 --> 0:24:39.640
<v Speaker 1>an attract and pull out employees. People will be providing

0:24:39.760 --> 0:24:45.440
<v Speaker 1>second chance training programs for falons for others who may

0:24:45.640 --> 0:24:51.119
<v Speaker 1>not have traditionally attractive credentials for work. But if you

0:24:51.560 --> 0:24:54.199
<v Speaker 1>can run the economy to the point where people are

0:24:54.280 --> 0:24:58.560
<v Speaker 1>sufficiently eager for workers, you can cause all kinds of

0:24:58.560 --> 0:25:01.920
<v Speaker 1>good social things to happen. Larry, as you just laid out,

0:25:02.040 --> 0:25:05.200
<v Speaker 1>the Biden administration as it comes in next month, has

0:25:05.280 --> 0:25:08.640
<v Speaker 1>a long list on its agenda economically for the United States.

0:25:08.720 --> 0:25:12.199
<v Speaker 1>At the same time, I wonder about globally, can we

0:25:12.240 --> 0:25:14.640
<v Speaker 1>really succeed in the long term in the United States

0:25:14.720 --> 0:25:18.119
<v Speaker 1>without having the global economy recover what lessons are there

0:25:18.160 --> 0:25:21.760
<v Speaker 1>from the vandemic for the global economy. I used to

0:25:21.760 --> 0:25:25.080
<v Speaker 1>say when I was Treasury Secretary that the world economy

0:25:25.560 --> 0:25:31.040
<v Speaker 1>couldn't fly forever on a single American UH engine, or

0:25:31.080 --> 0:25:34.879
<v Speaker 1>that no nation can be an oasis of prosperity in

0:25:34.920 --> 0:25:38.920
<v Speaker 1>a troubled world. I think we're going to reap very

0:25:38.960 --> 0:25:44.600
<v Speaker 1>substantial consequences from the fact that after decades when developing

0:25:44.680 --> 0:25:48.160
<v Speaker 1>countries were developing and we're catching up with the world's

0:25:48.200 --> 0:25:54.000
<v Speaker 1>major economies. That trend is going into reverse UH right now,

0:25:54.560 --> 0:25:59.520
<v Speaker 1>given the difficulties they're having and managing COVID, managing reduced exports,

0:26:00.000 --> 0:26:05.320
<v Speaker 1>managing heavy debts, managing reduced remittances, and we need to

0:26:05.480 --> 0:26:07.959
<v Speaker 1>step up on that. We need to step up with

0:26:08.520 --> 0:26:14.960
<v Speaker 1>very substantial global financial support provided through the international financial institutions.

0:26:15.359 --> 0:26:21.880
<v Speaker 1>We need to UH step up with an SDR special

0:26:21.960 --> 0:26:26.760
<v Speaker 1>drawing right allocation from the i m F. We need

0:26:26.800 --> 0:26:31.480
<v Speaker 1>to step up with much more investment in making sure

0:26:31.560 --> 0:26:35.800
<v Speaker 1>that there's not another pandemic, and while we're at it,

0:26:36.160 --> 0:26:40.080
<v Speaker 1>making sure that there really are the resources to get

0:26:40.560 --> 0:26:44.199
<v Speaker 1>vaccine to all the people on the planet, not just

0:26:44.359 --> 0:26:49.399
<v Speaker 1>the people in the rich countries UM as quickly as possible.

0:26:50.240 --> 0:26:53.359
<v Speaker 1>We've got to k shaped recovery problems. We need to

0:26:53.400 --> 0:26:59.240
<v Speaker 1>fight a case shaped recovery problem in America and the

0:26:59.320 --> 0:27:05.520
<v Speaker 1>case shaped recovery problem globally. And ultimately it's gonna be

0:27:05.600 --> 0:27:11.880
<v Speaker 1>cheaper for us to fight that fight to support developing

0:27:12.000 --> 0:27:17.639
<v Speaker 1>countries sooner rather than to support the UH later. And

0:27:18.080 --> 0:27:20.520
<v Speaker 1>I hope that one of the first initiatives of the

0:27:20.520 --> 0:27:25.080
<v Speaker 1>Biden administration will be bringing the global dimension to the

0:27:25.160 --> 0:27:28.600
<v Speaker 1>COVID recovery effort. So that's a global perspective. Let's go

0:27:28.720 --> 0:27:31.520
<v Speaker 1>local now we talk about global Wall Street, Let's talk

0:27:31.560 --> 0:27:34.320
<v Speaker 1>about New York Wall Street and particularly New York City,

0:27:34.320 --> 0:27:37.679
<v Speaker 1>the metropolitan area. What is going to happen to some

0:27:37.760 --> 0:27:40.040
<v Speaker 1>of the vibran cities like New York there are also

0:27:40.080 --> 0:27:43.240
<v Speaker 1>a high price San Francisco is another example. What's gonna

0:27:43.240 --> 0:27:45.600
<v Speaker 1>happen as the result of this pandemic. We're seeing surveys

0:27:45.640 --> 0:27:48.320
<v Speaker 1>now of various people, both people who hire and the

0:27:48.359 --> 0:27:50.640
<v Speaker 1>workers themselves, saying they think they're gonna be working from

0:27:50.640 --> 0:27:54.600
<v Speaker 1>home a lot more. Look, I think in terms of cities,

0:27:55.160 --> 0:27:58.520
<v Speaker 1>the tendency has been for the last several decades in

0:27:58.560 --> 0:28:01.720
<v Speaker 1>the United States for the rich to get richer, for

0:28:01.840 --> 0:28:08.320
<v Speaker 1>the force to be sent center in rather than center out.

0:28:09.160 --> 0:28:13.600
<v Speaker 1>I think that may change the combination of people being

0:28:14.440 --> 0:28:22.040
<v Speaker 1>uncomfortable with density even post COVID, having seen what technology

0:28:22.119 --> 0:28:27.200
<v Speaker 1>in terms of working at home can enable, the fact

0:28:27.280 --> 0:28:31.320
<v Speaker 1>that there's no longer state and local tax deductibility means

0:28:31.400 --> 0:28:34.920
<v Speaker 1>that the tax burdens associated with their major cities are

0:28:35.000 --> 0:28:39.400
<v Speaker 1>much more burdensome for the affluent people who UH live

0:28:39.480 --> 0:28:43.480
<v Speaker 1>in them, a sense that people are moving out rather

0:28:43.600 --> 0:28:47.560
<v Speaker 1>than moving in, which then creates a kind of self

0:28:47.600 --> 0:28:54.680
<v Speaker 1>fulfilling prophecy. UH. I would expect that if you look

0:28:54.720 --> 0:29:00.160
<v Speaker 1>at great cities like New York, like San Francisco, like

0:29:00.640 --> 0:29:05.440
<v Speaker 1>uh Los Angeles, that it's likely to be a difficult

0:29:05.960 --> 0:29:13.280
<v Speaker 1>UH few years of declining public services, declining in migration,

0:29:14.000 --> 0:29:20.360
<v Speaker 1>increasing UH out migration. And so my guesses we're going

0:29:20.400 --> 0:29:23.720
<v Speaker 1>to see a quite substantial term doesn't give me any

0:29:23.720 --> 0:29:28.479
<v Speaker 1>pleasure to make that forecasts. And in many ways, I

0:29:28.520 --> 0:29:34.440
<v Speaker 1>think those concentrations of talent have been what pushed our

0:29:34.480 --> 0:29:38.680
<v Speaker 1>country forward. But I think you're gonna see quite dramatic

0:29:38.880 --> 0:29:43.840
<v Speaker 1>changes in traditional patterns of economic geography. We always like

0:29:43.920 --> 0:29:46.240
<v Speaker 1>to end the week with a lightning round of Summer says,

0:29:46.640 --> 0:29:49.280
<v Speaker 1>Let's take a three questions here. Number one, we heard

0:29:49.360 --> 0:29:51.440
<v Speaker 1>j Powell, the tariff of the Fed, to this week

0:29:51.520 --> 0:29:53.800
<v Speaker 1>say he's not going to back up bond buying until

0:29:53.880 --> 0:29:56.040
<v Speaker 1>we really restore a lot of the employment. What are

0:29:56.040 --> 0:29:58.200
<v Speaker 1>we going to move back to a four percent unemployment

0:29:58.280 --> 0:30:01.840
<v Speaker 1>rate in this country end of twenty two? And what

0:30:01.960 --> 0:30:05.120
<v Speaker 1>about inflation? He also talked about inflation. One won't be

0:30:05.160 --> 0:30:08.800
<v Speaker 1>back over two percent inflation in the United States sometime

0:30:08.920 --> 0:30:13.880
<v Speaker 1>during two will see at least several months because of

0:30:13.920 --> 0:30:18.480
<v Speaker 1>some combination of specific factors where the inflation rate will

0:30:18.480 --> 0:30:23.280
<v Speaker 1>get above above two percent um would be my guests.

0:30:23.320 --> 0:30:26.520
<v Speaker 1>I think that may come sooner than people think. And Larry,

0:30:26.600 --> 0:30:30.720
<v Speaker 1>finally we've seen yet again the markets really hold up

0:30:30.840 --> 0:30:32.600
<v Speaker 1>no matter what's going on. In the respect of COVID

0:30:32.680 --> 0:30:35.520
<v Speaker 1>nineteen as it spreads rapidly throughout the country. Are the

0:30:35.560 --> 0:30:38.760
<v Speaker 1>marketing equity markets in particular, are they justified right now?

0:30:38.800 --> 0:30:41.080
<v Speaker 1>Are they price about right? Are they overpriced? Where do

0:30:41.120 --> 0:30:44.360
<v Speaker 1>you think they are? Many people think they're overpriced because

0:30:44.400 --> 0:30:48.000
<v Speaker 1>they look at a very strong, very high price earnings ratio.

0:30:48.960 --> 0:30:52.640
<v Speaker 1>I think that the kind of analysis the German Powell

0:30:52.640 --> 0:30:57.000
<v Speaker 1>offered in his testimony on Wednesday UM or his press

0:30:57.040 --> 0:31:01.800
<v Speaker 1>conference on Tuesday or Wednesday was right when he emphasized

0:31:01.880 --> 0:31:04.160
<v Speaker 1>you have to look at price earnings ratios in the

0:31:04.280 --> 0:31:08.120
<v Speaker 1>context of real interest rates, and that with real interest

0:31:08.200 --> 0:31:11.240
<v Speaker 1>rates low for what I think are quite deep seated

0:31:11.320 --> 0:31:17.960
<v Speaker 1>structural reasons. My guess is that you're going to uh

0:31:18.200 --> 0:31:23.360
<v Speaker 1>see markets uh priced uh not unreasonably. That doesn't mean

0:31:23.400 --> 0:31:25.320
<v Speaker 1>they're going to keep going up as fast as they

0:31:25.320 --> 0:31:28.320
<v Speaker 1>have in the last six months. But I don't have

0:31:28.440 --> 0:31:33.240
<v Speaker 1>a sense of extremely precarious ball. What does that due

0:31:33.240 --> 0:31:35.320
<v Speaker 1>to price discovery and the equity markets. Is a practical

0:31:35.360 --> 0:31:37.719
<v Speaker 1>matter because the low interest rates are true for everybody,

0:31:37.720 --> 0:31:40.080
<v Speaker 1>whether you're a well run company or a poorly run company.

0:31:40.120 --> 0:31:42.840
<v Speaker 1>Are we sustaining some and sometimes they call hi zombie

0:31:42.880 --> 0:31:44.640
<v Speaker 1>companies who don't have enough e butit debt? It really

0:31:44.640 --> 0:31:47.280
<v Speaker 1>sed to really service the debt. Is there a risk

0:31:47.320 --> 0:31:49.560
<v Speaker 1>here to economy on the long run that we don't

0:31:49.560 --> 0:31:53.840
<v Speaker 1>have prices coming really starting out the sheep from the goats,

0:31:53.880 --> 0:31:56.720
<v Speaker 1>if I can put it that way. Incorporating it may

0:31:56.720 --> 0:32:00.320
<v Speaker 1>be a bit of that, David, But I actually think

0:32:00.440 --> 0:32:05.160
<v Speaker 1>the larger effect is probably that low interest rates mean

0:32:05.320 --> 0:32:09.480
<v Speaker 1>lower discounting of the future, and so everybody is encouraged

0:32:09.560 --> 0:32:13.320
<v Speaker 1>to take a longer view in their economic decision making,

0:32:13.480 --> 0:32:17.960
<v Speaker 1>and it's that forward looking activity that's most likely to

0:32:18.120 --> 0:32:23.040
<v Speaker 1>deliver large external benefits to the economies. So I think

0:32:23.080 --> 0:32:26.280
<v Speaker 1>one should see these low interest rates more as an

0:32:26.280 --> 0:32:29.920
<v Speaker 1>opportunity that is a burden, Okay, Larry Summers, It's always

0:32:29.960 --> 0:32:31.440
<v Speaker 1>a light to end the week with you. That is

0:32:31.440 --> 0:32:35.040
<v Speaker 1>our special contribuer to Larry Summers, former treasure Secretary of Harvard.

0:32:35.480 --> 0:32:37.560
<v Speaker 1>That does it for this episode of Wall String Week.

0:32:37.880 --> 0:32:41.000
<v Speaker 1>I'm David Weston. This is Bloomberg. See you next week.