WEBVTT - Disarming Hamas

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<v Speaker 1>Hello everyone and welcome to It Could Happen Here. My

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<v Speaker 1>name is Anna Elkurd and I'm a researcher and analyst

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<v Speaker 1>of Arab and Palestinian politics. Today I want to talk

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<v Speaker 1>about the recent announcement that Hamas agreed to a second

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<v Speaker 1>phase of the Gaza ceasefire. So the Board of Peace

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<v Speaker 1>and mediator countries announced July 30th, last Thursday, I'm recording

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<v Speaker 1>on August 4th, that Hamas had agreed to a sort

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<v Speaker 1>of roadmap in which they would relinquish some of their weapons.

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<v Speaker 1>So this whole scenario has hinged on Hamas disarming, even

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<v Speaker 1>though in other conflicts, when there have been two parties,

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<v Speaker 1>disarmament comes at later stages. But in this scenario, the

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<v Speaker 1>Board of Peace and the Director General, Nikolai Mladenov, has

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<v Speaker 1>basically hinged the entire process on Hamas disarming first. And

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<v Speaker 1>so in... The recent announcement, which President Donald Trump basically

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<v Speaker 1>celebrated on his social media, calling it a historic agreement

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<v Speaker 1>for the complete disarmament of Hamas. Hamas basically said that

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<v Speaker 1>they had been in conversation with not only the mediators

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<v Speaker 1>in their proposals, but with other Palestinian factions and had

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<v Speaker 1>agreed to relinquish their weapons in a particular way. So

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<v Speaker 1>they said it was contingent and conditional on a permanent

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<v Speaker 1>end to Israeli attacks and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza,

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<v Speaker 1>as well as recovery and reconstruction. And importantly, they basically

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<v Speaker 1>said that no weapons would be handed over to Israel

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<v Speaker 1>or to any non-Palestinian party. So what Hamas is saying

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<v Speaker 1>is we're going to give up our weapons eventually if

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<v Speaker 1>Israel also adheres to the guidelines of the ceasefire, and

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<v Speaker 1>we will relinquish our weapons to the National Committee. which

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<v Speaker 1>is a governance structure made up of Palestinian technocrats. So

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<v Speaker 1>since the National Committee is supposed to govern Gaza eventually,

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<v Speaker 1>or at least that's the intention of this committee, even

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<v Speaker 1>though they haven't actually been allowed to do that, the

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<v Speaker 1>idea here is Hamas is saying, you want to claim

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<v Speaker 1>that disarmament is the reason that the ceasefire and recovery

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<v Speaker 1>and reconstruction can't proceed? Okay, so we'll disarm, but we'll

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<v Speaker 1>only disarm to other Palestinians. And like I said, it's

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<v Speaker 1>contingent on Israel also agreeing, withdrawing from Gaza, ceasing the

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<v Speaker 1>continued attacks. Israeli officials have basically said that they have

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<v Speaker 1>like severe worries about it and they're not interested. The

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<v Speaker 1>national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gavir, basically said that it's not

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<v Speaker 1>acceptable to Israel. So, you know, it's very much up

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<v Speaker 1>in the air. But Hamas basically threw the ball in

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<v Speaker 1>Israel's court, with this announcement. It's also important to point

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<v Speaker 1>out that throughout these past couple of months since the

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<v Speaker 1>ceasefire was announced, over a thousand Palestinians have been killed.

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<v Speaker 1>In the week that this announcement was made, Israel killed

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<v Speaker 1>at least six in Gaza and wounded many others. And

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<v Speaker 1>so all of that is going on. And that's not

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<v Speaker 1>even mentioning what's happening in the West Bank, where things

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<v Speaker 1>have really escalated in terms of both Israeli army and

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<v Speaker 1>Israeli settler violence, which often, of announcement might really amount

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<v Speaker 1>to nothing here, especially if Israel doesn't comply. But I

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<v Speaker 1>think it poses a bigger question around the Board of

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<v Speaker 1>Peace and its design and its objectives. So that's basically

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<v Speaker 1>what this episode is going to be about, answering the

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<v Speaker 1>question of whether the board's design, who sits on it,

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<v Speaker 1>who pays for a seat, who answers to who, actually

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<v Speaker 1>makes a fair outcome for Palestinians structurally impossible, regardless of

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<v Speaker 1>this announcement or any other announcements or decisions that Palestinians

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<v Speaker 1>may make. So just as a reminder to listeners, the

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<v Speaker 1>Board of Peace was announced as part of President Trump's

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<v Speaker 1>20-point Gaza plan back in September 2025. 20 points to

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<v Speaker 1>get Gaza back on track. I shouldn't make jokes here,

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<v Speaker 1>but that's what it was called, and it was launched

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<v Speaker 1>in January 2026. Its stated purpose is to promote stability,

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<v Speaker 1>restore dependable and lawful governance, and secure enduring peace. in

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<v Speaker 1>conflict-affected areas. So not only in Gaza. At the start,

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<v Speaker 1>the Board of Peace was announced around what was happening

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<v Speaker 1>in Gaza, but eventually it grew into a bigger idea,

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<v Speaker 1>and Gaza was framed as a template. So this Board

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<v Speaker 1>of Peace is supposed to be a model for managing

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<v Speaker 1>future conflicts globally. But as I've argued in the past,

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<v Speaker 1>this really is not about conflict resolution. It's about conflict

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<v Speaker 1>management and a very particular type of conflict management where

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<v Speaker 1>you subdue conflict through repressive means rather than reconciliation or

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<v Speaker 1>recovery or reparations or anything kind of long-term. So I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's important to maybe discuss at this point how

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<v Speaker 1>the Board of Peace is structured. It's basically a three-tier

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<v Speaker 1>hierarchy with Gaza at the bottom. At the top, there's

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<v Speaker 1>the founding executive board. This is chaired by President Trump.

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<v Speaker 1>In fact, in the founding documents of the Board of Peace,

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<v Speaker 1>he is named explicitly. It's not that the president of

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<v Speaker 1>the United States, you know, will continue to chair the

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<v Speaker 1>Board of Peace. No, it's specifically Donald Trump. So apparently

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<v Speaker 1>he's going to be president for life here. That's the

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<v Speaker 1>top decision-making body. And then underneath that is the Gaza

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<v Speaker 1>Executive Board. Includes a lot of different interesting characters. I'll

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<v Speaker 1>talk about them in a second. The Gaza Executive Board

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<v Speaker 1>oversees implementation of what happens in Gaza. Farther, farther, farther

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<v Speaker 1>underneath that is the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza,

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<v Speaker 1>who are 15 unelected Palestinian technocrats approved by Palestinian factions. But,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, they are not of any particular party. They

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<v Speaker 1>are civil servants and they're supposed to actually administer Gaza

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<v Speaker 1>day to day. Now, the National Committee reports to the

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<v Speaker 1>director general of the Gaza Executive Board, who is Nikolai Mladenov,

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<v Speaker 1>not to any Palestinian constituency at or to the Palestinian Authority,

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<v Speaker 1>for example, or any Palestinian body. Now, the six-page charter

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<v Speaker 1>of the Board of Peace never actually mentions Gaza or

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<v Speaker 1>human rights. And I don't think this is an oversight.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, the board is designed as a template for

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<v Speaker 1>managing future conflicts. It's not designed to uphold human rights.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think even though, of course, these are problematic

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<v Speaker 1>positions to take, I think the European reaction serves as

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<v Speaker 1>a sort of legitimacy check here. When the Board of

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<v Speaker 1>Peace and its mechanisms were supposed to be applied to Gaza,

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<v Speaker 1>the EU attended the board's first meeting as an observer,

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<v Speaker 1>for example, and a number of countries kind of floated

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<v Speaker 1>the idea of joining. But then when the Board of

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<v Speaker 1>Peace was expanded as an idea to become a template

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<v Speaker 1>for future conflicts, for example, Ukraine, then, you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>European Union and other European actors basically cited serious doubts

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<v Speaker 1>about compatibility with the UN Charter. And then France and

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<v Speaker 1>the UK voiced reservations when Putin, for example, was invited

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<v Speaker 1>to be on the board. So yeah, who is on

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<v Speaker 1>the top tier board here? It's got people like Prime

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<v Speaker 1>Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, who holds a seat on

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<v Speaker 1>the Board of Peace, despite being a party to a

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<v Speaker 1>conflict that's literally ongoing and is the reason why the

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<v Speaker 1>Board of Peace supposedly came into existence. And despite having

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<v Speaker 1>an ICC arrest warrant for war crimes. So clearly, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>one party to the conflict in this scenario, in the

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<v Speaker 1>Gaza case, is elevated while the other is administered. Then

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<v Speaker 1>there are a bunch of business figures. So CEOs, venture capitalists,

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<v Speaker 1>they sit alongside heads of state. So reconstruction is really

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<v Speaker 1>framed as a business opportunity as much as it's framed

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<v Speaker 1>as an issue of governance. There's not a single Palestinian,

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<v Speaker 1>nor does the PA actually hold a seat anywhere in

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<v Speaker 1>this hierarchy. Even though the Palestinian Authority did actually want

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<v Speaker 1>to join the Board of Peace and it sought full

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<v Speaker 1>membership on it, all they got was basically a consolation prize,

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<v Speaker 1>which was this coordination committee between the Palestinian Authority and

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<v Speaker 1>the board, with the Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa

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<v Speaker 1>basically representing the Palestinian Authority one-on-one to Mladenov, which has

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<v Speaker 1>been described as a type of compromise because the PA

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't actually have a seat by itself. There was much

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<v Speaker 1>made about a $ 1 billion price tag for a permanent

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<v Speaker 1>seat on the board. So people like Viktor Orban and

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<v Speaker 1>Vladimir Putin and Lukashenko basically were invited to participate in

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<v Speaker 1>this way. And it's, you know, kind of obviously a sham,

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<v Speaker 1>turning participation and, you know, quote-unquote peace governance into a

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<v Speaker 1>commodity for heads of state. Now, Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law,

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<v Speaker 1>who is inexplicably also involved in this, at Davos in January,

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<v Speaker 1>basically presented a master plan that projected $ 10 billion for

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<v Speaker 1>Gaza's GDP by 2035. And he talked about new towers

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<v Speaker 1>and industrial parks and all of this, of course, drawn

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<v Speaker 1>up without consulting Palestinians living in Gaza. And Trump himself

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<v Speaker 1>has described Gaza as a, quote, beautiful piece of property

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<v Speaker 1>over and over. So to me, this is a shorthand

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<v Speaker 1>for how the plan frames the conflict. or wants to,

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<v Speaker 1>wants to convince people that this conflict is fundamentally about underdevelopment.

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<v Speaker 1>Palestinians have grievances because they're poor, rather than the occupation,

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<v Speaker 1>rather than the genocide. So, you know, it poses the question,

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<v Speaker 1>what does it mean for this peace architecture when the

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<v Speaker 1>same people who oversee reconstruction also profit from it? Now,

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<v Speaker 1>who is on the Gaza executive board, that second tier?

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<v Speaker 1>You can find the full roster online. It is important

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<v Speaker 1>to note that they actually haven't met ever as a board.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, some of these people have their names and

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<v Speaker 1>their pictures on the website. And this Gaza Executive Board

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<v Speaker 1>has really not functioned except as kind of a legitimacy

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<v Speaker 1>stamp on the Board of Peace's activities. But it really

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<v Speaker 1>is very indicative of what the Board of Peace is

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<v Speaker 1>supposed to be and how they want to deal with

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<v Speaker 1>Gaza here. when you look at who has been invited,

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<v Speaker 1>even if they've never met. So it's got Gulf diplomats,

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<v Speaker 1>Turkish diplomats. It has an Egyptian intelligence chief. It has

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<v Speaker 1>a bunch of Trump administration people, Kushner, Susan Wiles, Steve Witkoff.

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<v Speaker 1>And then finance and business interests, like I said, are

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<v Speaker 1>very heavily represented here. So you have the CEO of Apollo,

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<v Speaker 1>Mark Rowan. You have venture capitalist Michael Eisenberg and a

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<v Speaker 1>number of other businessmen, many of them with ties to Israel.

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<v Speaker 1>There's only really two, let's say, peace process veterans on

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<v Speaker 1>this board. There's the director general, Mladenov, who I've discussed

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<v Speaker 1>in a previous episode, who's very problematic. I'll talk about

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<v Speaker 1>him in just a second. And then Tony Blair. Tony Blair,

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<v Speaker 1>also extremely problematic. He has a history of basically delivering

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<v Speaker 1>the Good Friday Agreement in the Northern Ireland conflict, but

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<v Speaker 1>he doesn't seem to be applying any of the lessons

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<v Speaker 1>of those previous conflicts to the Middle East in any way.

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<v Speaker 1>But the point here is that security, finance, and U.S.

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<v Speaker 1>political operatives clearly outweigh conflict resolution expertise on this executive board.

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<v Speaker 1>So who's actually running this? Like I said, they've never

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<v Speaker 1>actually met. Maybe some of them have been promised a

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<v Speaker 1>bigger role in the future. I'm thinking particularly the business

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<v Speaker 1>people here. But let's linger on Nikolai, I don't know

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<v Speaker 1>how to pronounce his name, Ladinov, who is the director

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<v Speaker 1>general here. I've talked about him before in a previous episode,

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<v Speaker 1>but he's the former Bulgarian foreign minister under a government

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<v Speaker 1>that was toppled by anti-corruption protests. Since 2022, he was

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<v Speaker 1>the head of an Emirati diplomatic academy which championed the

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<v Speaker 1>Abraham Accords, the so-called peace agreements between Israel and the

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<v Speaker 1>UAE and Bahrain and a few others. And this is

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<v Speaker 1>a framework that was disastrous. It's seen, especially by Palestinians,

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<v Speaker 1>as essentially cementing their exclusion from statehood. So this is

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<v Speaker 1>the guy who's supposed to run the Gaza Executive Board

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<v Speaker 1>and who has turned the peace process on its head

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<v Speaker 1>by basically, again, like I said at the beginning of

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<v Speaker 1>the episode, conditioning the entire process on disarmament first. We

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<v Speaker 1>have the rest of the Gaza Executive Board and then

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<v Speaker 1>we have the Center for Civilian Military Control. So this

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<v Speaker 1>is a center, it's based in the south of Israel.

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<v Speaker 1>It's supposed to oversee the ceasefire. But every ceasefire enforcement

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<v Speaker 1>decision basically has no sway on Israel itself. Like there's

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<v Speaker 1>no mechanism to actually hold Israel accountable. It has no

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<v Speaker 1>independent authority. It coordinates with the White House. And in particular,

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<v Speaker 1>the liaison to the White House is this man, Aryeh Lightstone,

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<v Speaker 1>who was a senior advisor to a former U.S. ambassador

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<v Speaker 1>to Israel who was extremely right-wing. And there's been recent reporting,

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<v Speaker 1>which I'll link in the show notes, about how intensely

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<v Speaker 1>hostile he is to Palestinians. So this is the guy

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<v Speaker 1>who's supposed to oversee the ceasefire and report to the

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<v Speaker 1>White House. So what are the consequences on the ground?

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<v Speaker 1>As I said, more than a thousand Palestinians have been

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<v Speaker 1>killed in Gaza since the ceasefire was announced. Over half

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<v Speaker 1>of Gaza is now behind this quote-unquote yellow line, which

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<v Speaker 1>is Israeli-controlled territory. Humanitarian and agricultural access is restricted or

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<v Speaker 1>prohibited in that area. So Gaza is more and more squeezed.

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<v Speaker 1>The aid that was supposed to reach 600 trucks a

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<v Speaker 1>day has never reached that promised 600 trucks. And much

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<v Speaker 1>of what enters is basically private sector goods that's sold

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<v Speaker 1>for profit, with the Israelis also getting like a coordination

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<v Speaker 1>fee on each truck. Now, Hamas dissolved its emergency committee

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<v Speaker 1>in July 2026 before they announced that they had accepted

0:13:53.570 --> 0:13:57.670
<v Speaker 1>the mediator's proposals about disarmament. They dissolved this emergency committee

0:13:57.710 --> 0:13:59.990
<v Speaker 1>and said they were handing authority over to the national committee.

0:14:00.710 --> 0:14:05.090
<v Speaker 1>But the board basically was uninterested in this move. They

0:14:05.150 --> 0:14:08.640
<v Speaker 1>said that they were guided by actions, not promises. And

0:14:08.700 --> 0:14:10.500
<v Speaker 1>it really points to the fact that these kind of

0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:13.170
<v Speaker 1>procedural concessions that Hamas is attempting to make don't really

0:14:13.230 --> 0:14:16.570
<v Speaker 1>fix the structural design flaws. I think it's also important

0:14:16.630 --> 0:14:19.740
<v Speaker 1>to point out here that even though on paper Hamas

0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:22.440
<v Speaker 1>has given up its civilian government, on the ground like

0:14:22.480 --> 0:14:25.600
<v Speaker 1>that doesn't actually change much. It's still involved in security

0:14:25.620 --> 0:14:28.880
<v Speaker 1>and policing and bureaucracy. And what they dissolved is this

0:14:29.060 --> 0:14:34.229
<v Speaker 1>like civilian cabinet body that had run Gaza since October 2023.

0:14:34.230 --> 0:14:37.850
<v Speaker 1>And it's a very like specific administrative organ. And it's

0:14:37.910 --> 0:14:42.050
<v Speaker 1>not all of Hamas's governing capacity. So it was kind of, again,

0:14:42.090 --> 0:14:44.229
<v Speaker 1>a way of like throwing the ball in Israel's court

0:14:44.690 --> 0:14:47.510
<v Speaker 1>and claiming that we are dissolving the committee. We are

0:14:47.550 --> 0:14:50.760
<v Speaker 1>making these concessions. But they're being very, you know, strategic

0:14:50.800 --> 0:14:53.770
<v Speaker 1>about this. And in the same announcement, when they dissolved

0:14:53.790 --> 0:14:55.910
<v Speaker 1>the emergency committee, they basically said that their technical and

0:14:55.930 --> 0:14:59.520
<v Speaker 1>professional staff would remain in their posts. And it hasn't,

0:14:59.800 --> 0:15:04.660
<v Speaker 1>you know, relinquished control over the civil service and security bureaucracy.

0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:07.980
<v Speaker 1>So a few months ago, much was made about Hamas's

0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:10.100
<v Speaker 1>strategy and whether there were going to be shifts in

0:15:10.140 --> 0:15:14.440
<v Speaker 1>that strategy. Because there was an internal election in Hamas

0:15:15.020 --> 0:15:18.880
<v Speaker 1>that basically cemented the divide between a kind of more

0:15:18.940 --> 0:15:22.310
<v Speaker 1>hardline camp and a more pragmatist camp. And the more

0:15:22.350 --> 0:15:28.270
<v Speaker 1>hardline camp won. So between Khaled Mishal, who was supposedly,

0:15:28.350 --> 0:15:33.210
<v Speaker 1>you know, more pragmatist and arguing for political accommodation, and

0:15:33.230 --> 0:15:37.610
<v Speaker 1>Khalil Hayya, who demanded kind of more confrontation, the second

0:15:37.650 --> 0:15:41.310
<v Speaker 1>guy won. And so there was a lot of speculation

0:15:41.370 --> 0:15:45.050
<v Speaker 1>back in February that that meant if the hardliners won,

0:15:45.530 --> 0:15:49.680
<v Speaker 1>that this is going to impact disarmament. And that that

0:15:49.720 --> 0:15:53.770
<v Speaker 1>means Hamas will never disarm. and would never actually acquiesce

0:15:53.870 --> 0:15:56.729
<v Speaker 1>to what was being demanded of them. But in the

0:15:56.770 --> 0:16:00.200
<v Speaker 1>last couple of weeks, months, you can see that Hamas'

0:16:00.290 --> 0:16:06.500
<v Speaker 1>strategy is much more, let's say, nuanced and attempting to

0:16:06.560 --> 0:16:10.840
<v Speaker 1>kind of buy time with the United States and with

0:16:10.860 --> 0:16:14.460
<v Speaker 1>the international community while still saying, okay, we're going to

0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:17.920
<v Speaker 1>make concessions. This is not to imply that the victory

0:16:18.060 --> 0:16:19.970
<v Speaker 1>of the kind of more hardline camp isn't going to

0:16:20.040 --> 0:16:23.390
<v Speaker 1>impact Hamas strategy in the future. They are much more

0:16:23.550 --> 0:16:27.410
<v Speaker 1>Gaza rooted and a more pro-Iran faction. You know, obviously,

0:16:27.450 --> 0:16:31.530
<v Speaker 1>these are internal shifts between them, but we'll see how

0:16:31.580 --> 0:16:35.380
<v Speaker 1>that plays out in the near future. But again, I

0:16:35.420 --> 0:16:38.100
<v Speaker 1>think we go back to the idea of how the

0:16:38.140 --> 0:16:41.710
<v Speaker 1>Board of Peace is designed and And whether the flaws

0:16:41.770 --> 0:16:45.090
<v Speaker 1>in its design and the dangerous precedent it sets for

0:16:45.230 --> 0:16:48.480
<v Speaker 1>not only, quote unquote, you know, conflict resolution in Gaza,

0:16:48.510 --> 0:16:51.900
<v Speaker 1>but conflict resolution in every other arena of conflict here,

0:16:52.480 --> 0:16:56.720
<v Speaker 1>where in this scenario, there isn't neutral mediation, there isn't

0:16:56.760 --> 0:17:00.320
<v Speaker 1>buy-in from all parties. One side is completely missing from

0:17:00.360 --> 0:17:03.900
<v Speaker 1>the board. One side is administered. It really poses the

0:17:03.920 --> 0:17:09.960
<v Speaker 1>question of whether any kind of political movement is Any concessions,

0:17:10.440 --> 0:17:14.260
<v Speaker 1>anything that can be mediated and agreed upon, actually impacts

0:17:14.480 --> 0:17:17.520
<v Speaker 1>how the board is going to function. Hamad Chahda, who

0:17:17.880 --> 0:17:20.960
<v Speaker 1>was speaking at a Carnegie Endowment roundtable back in April,

0:17:21.380 --> 0:17:24.430
<v Speaker 1>he is a Gazan journalist, I think put it really

0:17:24.470 --> 0:17:27.030
<v Speaker 1>well when he said that, quote, Gaza is no longer

0:17:27.490 --> 0:17:30.649
<v Speaker 1>just a unique, extraordinary case of human savagery. It is

0:17:30.670 --> 0:17:33.210
<v Speaker 1>a canary in a coal mine. What starts there does

0:17:33.250 --> 0:17:36.209
<v Speaker 1>not end there. And I think I want to end

0:17:36.290 --> 0:17:38.909
<v Speaker 1>on that note of framing Gaza as a canary in

0:17:38.930 --> 0:17:41.070
<v Speaker 1>the coal mine, because the Board of Peace is this

0:17:41.150 --> 0:17:47.710
<v Speaker 1>model that combines billionaires, profiteering, and kind of the worst

0:17:47.840 --> 0:17:50.340
<v Speaker 1>actors in the world in terms of dictators and those

0:17:50.400 --> 0:17:54.440
<v Speaker 1>who are invested in a more authoritarian world. That is

0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:56.660
<v Speaker 1>going to be the model that's going to be exported

0:17:56.960 --> 0:18:00.939
<v Speaker 1>to other weak states or contested territories. That's all for

0:18:00.960 --> 0:18:05.270
<v Speaker 1>me today. Hope that this was at least eye-opening. And

0:18:05.590 --> 0:18:10.680
<v Speaker 1>thanks for listening. Thanks for listening.