WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 23, 2025 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.600 --> 0:00:15.440 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.440 --> 0:00:18.680 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.239 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.880 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.680 --> 0:00:31.280 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:33.919 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:37.440 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. To extend the conversation, 0:00:37.600 --> 0:00:40.400 the former senior US intelligence official, Normal Raw joins us 0:00:40.440 --> 0:00:42.760 now for more Normal Welcome back to the program sir. 0:00:42.840 --> 0:00:45.120 Just a quote from the Defense Secretary pet Agseth called 0:00:45.120 --> 0:00:49.320 it an incredible and overwhelming success. How should we define success? 0:00:49.600 --> 0:00:50.480 This Monday morning? 0:00:51.600 --> 0:00:54.040 Good morning, Well, we have a changed Middle East. The 0:00:54.320 --> 0:00:58.800 United States and Israel of conducted devastating attacks against all 0:00:58.840 --> 0:01:03.800 ofver Ron's air defense, his leadership nuclear programs in Iran's 0:01:03.840 --> 0:01:08.119 response has been generally feeble. What response Iran has been 0:01:08.160 --> 0:01:11.880 able to conduct, to include missile attacks against Israel have 0:01:11.920 --> 0:01:16.360 not impacted the strategic course of the conflict. The numbers 0:01:16.400 --> 0:01:19.560 are moving in a direction where Iran's missile program is 0:01:19.600 --> 0:01:24.240 being whittled away, and Iran's nuclear program is effectively destroyed. 0:01:24.280 --> 0:01:26.720 There will be elements that remain, there will be elements 0:01:26.760 --> 0:01:30.880 that are concerning, but its nuclear program is effectively destroyed. 0:01:31.319 --> 0:01:34.319 Norman, no one really understands Iran quite like you. What 0:01:34.440 --> 0:01:36.840 do you think that Iotola is weighing up right now? 0:01:36.920 --> 0:01:39.840 The menu of options in terms of a response. 0:01:40.319 --> 0:01:43.040 Well, there are many people who understand Iran are better 0:01:43.080 --> 0:01:45.679 than me. But within Iran, the decision making structure is 0:01:45.680 --> 0:01:50.000 going to be challenged. His leadership has been changed. He 0:01:50.120 --> 0:01:54.360 himself is in a difficult, hidden location. Some of his 0:01:54.480 --> 0:01:58.480 leadership is being hunted, perhaps by the Israelis. They're under attack, 0:01:58.960 --> 0:02:02.960 their economy is poor, their population is restive. Let me 0:02:03.000 --> 0:02:05.320 give you an example of options and the challenges. If 0:02:05.320 --> 0:02:07.760 they close the straight of her moves, they close off 0:02:07.880 --> 0:02:11.880 most of the many of the food stuffs, the vegetable oils, 0:02:12.520 --> 0:02:15.080 the primary goods that come into the country to feed 0:02:15.120 --> 0:02:18.000 the population. Now, that is something that you really don't 0:02:18.000 --> 0:02:20.480 want to do at a time when your population may 0:02:21.040 --> 0:02:24.520 erupt into major unrest. So they have many challenges with 0:02:24.639 --> 0:02:26.400 all of the decisions they make. But again, if they 0:02:26.440 --> 0:02:29.600 close the straight of her moves, it does not impact Israel, 0:02:29.760 --> 0:02:32.280 and it will bring in the United States and could 0:02:32.480 --> 0:02:33.920 likely lead to the end of the regime. 0:02:34.240 --> 0:02:36.480 Do you think these strikes get around to the table? 0:02:36.520 --> 0:02:39.320 The President continues to say he wants to see a 0:02:39.400 --> 0:02:41.160 diplomatic path forward. 0:02:42.000 --> 0:02:44.560 Not immediately. But what it does do is it tells 0:02:44.600 --> 0:02:47.200 the world that the United States is pushing for diplomacy, 0:02:47.360 --> 0:02:51.040 and that actually encourages the world to push back on 0:02:51.120 --> 0:02:56.480 Iran's efforts to escalate the contact conflict or isolate the 0:02:56.600 --> 0:02:59.280 United States. So in the past, in some cases the 0:02:59.360 --> 0:03:03.520 United States seemed as the aggressor or are alone. But 0:03:03.600 --> 0:03:06.080 the United States is an essence saying you can't have 0:03:06.120 --> 0:03:08.520 a program that is moving towards a nuclear weapon, but 0:03:08.560 --> 0:03:12.160 we're interested in a diplomatic deal. Be reasonable. Iran is 0:03:12.240 --> 0:03:15.120 not being reasonable and it has no allies. 0:03:15.639 --> 0:03:17.320 No, I mean you said that the nuclear program has 0:03:17.320 --> 0:03:20.359 effectively been destroyed. There's a lot of concern among a 0:03:20.440 --> 0:03:23.480 number of circles about the four hundred kilograms of enriched 0:03:23.600 --> 0:03:27.600 uranium that have gone missing that previously were held near Isfahan, 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:29.880 as well as equipment that was taken out of four 0:03:29.960 --> 0:03:33.080 Dah before the attacks. Do you have any sense of 0:03:33.120 --> 0:03:35.440 either where that could be or how close that could 0:03:35.480 --> 0:03:38.840 be to being to restarting some of the nuclear programs 0:03:38.880 --> 0:03:41.880 that are on previously had So those. 0:03:41.760 --> 0:03:45.120 Are valid concerns. So we should be concerned about Iran's 0:03:45.360 --> 0:03:49.280 remaining nuclear material. It will have nuclear scientists, it will 0:03:49.320 --> 0:03:53.480 have nuclear knowledge, and it will have parts and equipment 0:03:53.600 --> 0:03:56.360 related to centrifuges that it did not declare to the 0:03:56.400 --> 0:04:01.000 IEA that it could in theory assemble and recreate in 0:04:01.040 --> 0:04:04.240 a covert facility. But let's think about that for a minute. 0:04:04.320 --> 0:04:06.840 If you believe what you read in the newspapers, the 0:04:06.960 --> 0:04:10.240 United States and Israel have is some extremely good intelligence 0:04:10.360 --> 0:04:13.240 on Iran. So they're going to have to put this together, 0:04:13.640 --> 0:04:16.200 get away with it, and then the United States and 0:04:16.320 --> 0:04:18.240 Israel are going to have to not learn about it 0:04:18.320 --> 0:04:21.719 and not destroy it. Now that's possible, but it's unlikely. 0:04:22.040 --> 0:04:24.800 But it is something that's going to require diplomatic pressure 0:04:24.960 --> 0:04:27.520 so that it can be identified and removed, and it's 0:04:27.560 --> 0:04:29.880 probably a card Iran will play in the talks. 0:04:30.160 --> 0:04:32.960 What do you think the Foreign Minister of Iran is 0:04:33.000 --> 0:04:35.000 doing over in Russia today, we know that he is 0:04:35.080 --> 0:04:38.120 meeting with Vladimir Putin, and there's a real question around 0:04:38.160 --> 0:04:40.240 what the ask is and whether it will be the 0:04:40.320 --> 0:04:42.000 response that Iranians are looking for. 0:04:42.680 --> 0:04:48.240 Diplomatic support pressure in the UN. Iran has obtained consistent 0:04:48.320 --> 0:04:52.280 diplomatic support at the United Nations Security Consul, the International 0:04:52.320 --> 0:04:55.560 Atomic Energy Agency, and other diplomatic fora from Russia and 0:04:55.680 --> 0:04:58.440 China over the years. In fact, these two countries have 0:04:58.520 --> 0:05:02.280 block any major pressure on Iran for its proliferation missiles, 0:05:02.520 --> 0:05:06.040 nuclear program and terrorism. And this is really the moment 0:05:06.120 --> 0:05:09.960 where these two countries can can produce this. It's unlikely 0:05:10.080 --> 0:05:11.920 that either of these countries are going to provide any 0:05:11.960 --> 0:05:15.400 military support. The Strategic Agreement that has been signed between 0:05:15.480 --> 0:05:18.800 Russia and Iran it doesn't provide for that sort of relationship. 0:05:19.080 --> 0:05:22.440 But Iran, again it has no allies, but it does 0:05:22.480 --> 0:05:26.520 have partners who have provided a support in international fora 0:05:26.560 --> 0:05:28.480 that may help on diplomatic talks. 0:05:28.680 --> 0:05:31.000 Norman, just before you go, just a brief assessment of 0:05:31.000 --> 0:05:34.440 this operation thirty seven as long one hundred and twenty 0:05:34.520 --> 0:05:37.960 five aircraft B two bombers, fourth and fifth generation fighters 0:05:38.000 --> 0:05:41.919 as well thirty thousand pounds bunker buster bombs missiles launched 0:05:41.920 --> 0:05:46.080 from a submarine as well. Norman, how smooth, how well executed, 0:05:46.400 --> 0:05:49.160 with the logistics, the precision of this operation. 0:05:50.360 --> 0:05:55.360 This operation speaks to the training, leadership, and the technology 0:05:55.640 --> 0:05:59.200 of the United States military has had for a number 0:05:59.200 --> 0:06:02.440 of years. This operation has been stayed in the press, 0:06:02.880 --> 0:06:07.200 has been practiced for many years. This is not something 0:06:07.240 --> 0:06:11.719 that has occurred in any recent administration, but this recent 0:06:11.760 --> 0:06:15.120 administration it had to refine. It significantly matched the target set. 0:06:15.200 --> 0:06:18.400 But what you are seeing is a technology and capability 0:06:18.400 --> 0:06:20.719 in leadership and no country can match. And I think 0:06:20.800 --> 0:06:23.560 North Korea and other countries in the world to include 0:06:23.600 --> 0:06:26.200 China and Russia are looking in the past weeks and 0:06:26.240 --> 0:06:29.160 saying the world is also a little different from their perspective. 0:06:29.560 --> 0:06:32.320 It's a strong final point Norman appreciated time. Sir Norman 0:06:32.400 --> 0:06:45.680 role Valley, former senior US intelligence official. Down story for 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:48.480 a gobent snacks right in the following. A hypothetical sustained 0:06:48.520 --> 0:06:51.560 a very large disruption of energy supply transit would likely 0:06:51.600 --> 0:06:54.520 push oil and European natural gas price is above one 0:06:54.640 --> 0:06:57.440 hundred and ten dollars per barrel. Joining US now is 0:06:57.480 --> 0:06:59.960 down story for a golment Sachs, Dan, that's the hypothetical. 0:07:00.040 --> 0:07:01.800 Let's talk about a base case. What is the base case? 0:07:01.839 --> 0:07:03.560 Forem of the team so found the smarting. 0:07:04.760 --> 0:07:08.400 Yeah, so base case remains that we don't see significant 0:07:08.560 --> 0:07:12.160 disruptions neither of oil or natural gas in the Middle East. 0:07:12.560 --> 0:07:15.280 And in our base case without disruptions, we actually have 0:07:15.480 --> 0:07:19.480 energy prices gradually declining, with brands reaching around sixty dollars 0:07:19.560 --> 0:07:21.760 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, and 0:07:21.800 --> 0:07:26.400 with TTF europe natural gas prices also declining, especially next 0:07:26.480 --> 0:07:30.240 year with the arrival of all these extra energy supply 0:07:30.320 --> 0:07:31.160 cargo terminals. 0:07:31.480 --> 0:07:33.960 Dan, how high could oil go if Iran does not 0:07:34.240 --> 0:07:38.280 close the Strait of Hormos but does other potential attacks 0:07:38.280 --> 0:07:42.640 on energy infrastructure or tankers that potentially disrupt the flow 0:07:42.680 --> 0:07:44.040 of energy coming out of the region. 0:07:45.720 --> 0:07:48.880 Yeah, so you know, old prices could rise significantly in 0:07:49.160 --> 0:07:53.040 those scenarios. And the key reason is that the Middle 0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:57.760 East the Gulf countries are remain the largest regional producer 0:07:58.120 --> 0:08:02.280 in global global oil markets. In general. Our estimate is 0:08:02.320 --> 0:08:05.720 that for every one million barrels per day drop of 0:08:05.760 --> 0:08:09.000 supply that sustained for about a year, brand should be 0:08:09.040 --> 0:08:12.200 about eight dollars per barrel lower. That takes into account 0:08:12.760 --> 0:08:17.000 the fact that higher prices reduce demands somewhat an incentivized 0:08:17.080 --> 0:08:20.160 USHL two to produce more. I think one challenge big 0:08:20.200 --> 0:08:23.640 picture with potential supply disruptions in the Middle East is 0:08:23.680 --> 0:08:26.600 that the most important buffer that the oil market benefits 0:08:26.600 --> 0:08:29.520 from against supply disruptions namingly quite a bit of spare 0:08:29.560 --> 0:08:35.240 capacity among OPEC core producers that's not necessarily available if 0:08:35.520 --> 0:08:39.439 the production to the capacity to produce would would be 0:08:39.480 --> 0:08:42.760 affected by bipotential disruptions because we think the bulk of 0:08:42.800 --> 0:08:45.800 the spare capacity oil markets is concentrated both in Saudi 0:08:45.840 --> 0:08:46.600 Arabia and the UI. 0:08:46.800 --> 0:08:49.679 Are you seeing any reductions to Iran in barrels right now? 0:08:50.760 --> 0:08:54.560 No? In fact, are now casts of Iran crude supply 0:08:55.520 --> 0:08:58.160 is added three year high three point six million barrels 0:08:58.200 --> 0:09:02.320 per day of crude. Iranian supply has actually doubled over 0:09:02.360 --> 0:09:05.080 the last three years or so, and we're actually seeing 0:09:05.400 --> 0:09:08.320 very high export flows at the moment. I think the 0:09:08.360 --> 0:09:11.400 idea is to get the barrels out safely. Why while 0:09:11.440 --> 0:09:14.200 we can, and at the moment, prices are are relatively 0:09:14.240 --> 0:09:15.800 attractive given that Dan. 0:09:15.720 --> 0:09:17.360 Do you think that if there is some sort of 0:09:17.520 --> 0:09:20.120 calming down of the tensions, you could see a huge 0:09:20.120 --> 0:09:21.760 decline in oil prices. 0:09:22.640 --> 0:09:26.160 Yes, So we estimated the jubilical respreamum around Tendall's per Beryl. 0:09:27.160 --> 0:09:30.120 You know, if we if we increase, if the market 0:09:30.200 --> 0:09:33.400 were to increase its its probability of our base case 0:09:33.440 --> 0:09:36.559 that you don't see disruptions, this respremum could you know, 0:09:36.640 --> 0:09:39.000 could come down. Uh, you know, it may take some 0:09:39.040 --> 0:09:41.360 time for for us to to really learn whether we're 0:09:41.360 --> 0:09:44.960 going to see see disruptions. Now. I think the hypothetical 0:09:45.080 --> 0:09:47.160 scenario where where the three spremium comes up the more 0:09:47.240 --> 0:09:50.200 quickly would be uh, you know, a successful rotori into 0:09:50.240 --> 0:09:53.880 the negotiation tables between the US, the US and Iran. 0:09:54.679 --> 0:09:56.960 But I think otherwise it would take some time for 0:09:56.960 --> 0:09:59.200 for markets to you know, to get more confidence in 0:09:59.200 --> 0:10:00.960 the basic case outlook for disruptions. 0:10:01.000 --> 0:10:02.959 On the flip side, Dan, there's this question about how 0:10:03.040 --> 0:10:05.360 much the US is going to be affected versus other 0:10:05.400 --> 0:10:07.760 countries or other regions. I'm thinking of Europe, I'm thinking 0:10:07.840 --> 0:10:10.960 of Asia. How big is the dispersion in terms of 0:10:11.000 --> 0:10:13.880 which areas would get disproportionately hit in terms of their 0:10:14.000 --> 0:10:18.480 energy costs based on a myriad of potential disruptions to 0:10:18.520 --> 0:10:19.200 oil supplies. 0:10:20.440 --> 0:10:23.040 Yes, so I would rank the vulnerability of the three 0:10:23.080 --> 0:10:27.480 big regions as follows. Most vulnerable Europe, both because of 0:10:27.520 --> 0:10:31.880 the exposure to oil prices but also natural gas prices, 0:10:32.559 --> 0:10:35.840 and but also diesel prices where Europe no longer imports 0:10:36.040 --> 0:10:38.400 diesel products from Russia, but it is heavily dependent on 0:10:38.400 --> 0:10:41.679 the Middle East. Second, I would put Asia and the 0:10:41.800 --> 0:10:45.079 third vulnerable, But the least vulnerable is the US because 0:10:45.120 --> 0:10:49.200 the US natural gas market is quite insulated from global markets, 0:10:49.679 --> 0:10:52.200 because the US is a large producer, and because the 0:10:52.320 --> 0:10:56.640 US exports are basically at capacity. So if we were 0:10:56.640 --> 0:11:00.319 to see large disruptions, oil prices would also rise and 0:11:00.840 --> 0:11:02.960 increased costs for the US, But the US would be 0:11:03.000 --> 0:11:04.960 the least vulnerable among the top three regions. 0:11:04.960 --> 0:11:06.800 Here, Dan, I love to pick up your point about 0:11:06.800 --> 0:11:08.880 how Iran is at a three year high when it 0:11:08.920 --> 0:11:12.400 comes to their barrels that they're producing and exporting. At 0:11:12.400 --> 0:11:14.800 the same time, the Trump administration says they have maximum 0:11:14.800 --> 0:11:18.960 pressure right now on Iran's oil industry, and they're going 0:11:19.040 --> 0:11:21.680 after the teapots and the banks in Hong Kong and 0:11:21.760 --> 0:11:24.280 China that facilitate all of this. How are they so 0:11:24.440 --> 0:11:27.000 high if this administration says they're at max pressure. 0:11:28.440 --> 0:11:31.760 Yeah, So to your point, about ninety percent of Iran's 0:11:31.840 --> 0:11:34.520 liquids exports. Iran is exporting just over two million barrels 0:11:34.559 --> 0:11:38.040 play of liquids. About ninety percent goes to China, and 0:11:38.080 --> 0:11:41.280 I think over the last two years the system has 0:11:41.280 --> 0:11:47.040 built out an alternative supply chain with shipping companies, with ports, 0:11:47.160 --> 0:11:52.240 with refiners, with alternative financial institutions that together ensure that 0:11:52.320 --> 0:11:55.720 these barrels continue to reach global markets, and in particular 0:11:55.720 --> 0:12:01.000 are quite price sensitive Chinese deepot refiners which have margins 0:12:01.200 --> 0:12:05.280 and they basically need those those discounts to continue operating. 0:12:05.640 --> 0:12:08.199 Donks Jovan of Goma Sachs down, Thank you, sir as 0:12:08.240 --> 0:12:21.120 always stunning events. Over the weekend America's attack on around 0:12:21.280 --> 0:12:23.640 years in the banking a stewth thirty six don long 0:12:23.720 --> 0:12:26.920 operation named Midnight Hammer pilots dropped some of the largest 0:12:26.920 --> 0:12:30.720 bombs in their arsenal on Iranian nuclear facilities. Joining us 0:12:30.720 --> 0:12:33.920 now to discuss is the former US Defense Secretary Mark Esper. 0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:36.599 Mister Secretary, welcome to the program, sir. We'd love to 0:12:36.679 --> 0:12:40.080 lean on your experience the work to execute an operation 0:12:40.679 --> 0:12:43.480 like this one and your rarely high level assessment of 0:12:43.559 --> 0:12:44.160 his success. 0:12:45.679 --> 0:12:48.880 Well, good morning. Look, it was clearly successful in terms 0:12:48.920 --> 0:12:51.640 of the execution. Our aircraft were able to make it 0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:57.080 in drop what fourteen GBU fifty seven's, the submarines launched 0:12:57.080 --> 0:13:01.840 ta lambs from offshore. We were out with impunity. Nobody 0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:04.960 was hurt, and I just I think it speaks to 0:13:04.960 --> 0:13:07.720 the skill and professionalism of the United States military. And 0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:09.360 now I think what we have to do is two things. 0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:11.560 First of all, get a good battle damage assessment, and 0:13:11.559 --> 0:13:14.000 that will take a few days and maybe even then 0:13:14.040 --> 0:13:17.560 will be incomplete until we get inspectors on the ground. 0:13:17.800 --> 0:13:20.160 And then secondly, we're all waiting to see what Iran's 0:13:20.160 --> 0:13:22.720 response will be. And there are various predictions you guys 0:13:22.720 --> 0:13:24.520 have been talking about it what they may or may 0:13:24.559 --> 0:13:26.280 not do. But that's what we're all waiting for now. 0:13:26.360 --> 0:13:28.520 If you're advising the president right now, what would you 0:13:28.559 --> 0:13:30.920 say to him in terms of what to expect in 0:13:31.000 --> 0:13:32.520 terms of Tehran's retaliation. 0:13:33.679 --> 0:13:35.079 Yeah, Look, I think there are a range of things 0:13:35.160 --> 0:13:38.360 they could do, you know, were they could first of all, 0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:41.280 use Shia militia groups in Iraq to target our people 0:13:41.280 --> 0:13:44.640 and facilities there. Secondly, much like they did during my 0:13:44.720 --> 0:13:47.880 time in early twenty twenty, they could launch Asavov missiles 0:13:47.880 --> 0:13:49.839 against US forces in the Middle East, and there are 0:13:49.960 --> 0:13:53.120 a couple dozen bases there with over forty thousand US 0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:56.920 service members that they could go after. A third, there 0:13:57.000 --> 0:13:59.320 could be sales here in the United States and globally. 0:13:59.400 --> 0:14:02.760 Or they can go against American officials as they did 0:14:02.800 --> 0:14:05.320 a couple of years ago and try that. And then 0:14:05.320 --> 0:14:08.560 they could go after shipping in the straight of Hord moves, 0:14:08.840 --> 0:14:11.200 which I think is unlikely, but to me, those are 0:14:11.480 --> 0:14:13.599 the range of outcomes that they may pursue here in 0:14:13.640 --> 0:14:14.280 the coming days. 0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:17.400 In twenty twenty, when cost them Sulimani was struck with 0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:20.240 that drone strike, we did see retaliation, but it was 0:14:20.320 --> 0:14:24.000 telegraphed through back channels to the US administration. Do you 0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:26.360 think we could see Iran take that same approach this 0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:27.120 time around? 0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:28.160 Yeah. 0:14:28.160 --> 0:14:29.840 I think what they have to do is calibrate this 0:14:30.160 --> 0:14:32.920 so that they do enough for domestic consumption, feel like 0:14:32.960 --> 0:14:36.360 they've satisfied the military. They've struck back, tell the Iranian 0:14:36.360 --> 0:14:39.400 people they struck back, but not so much that President 0:14:39.400 --> 0:14:43.440 Trump really upset anti climbs that escalation ladder and really 0:14:44.760 --> 0:14:47.720 hits them back fairly hard. Within hours of the missile 0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:50.360 strikes at Eli Saud, we had Iranians on the phone 0:14:50.440 --> 0:14:53.280 privately reaching out to us saying they were done, they 0:14:53.320 --> 0:14:55.920 had no more, they wanted to stop fighting, et cetera. 0:14:56.480 --> 0:14:58.960 And that was, of course long before we knew that 0:14:59.480 --> 0:15:04.280 Americans service members suffer concussions and TBI. But nonetheless they'll 0:15:04.320 --> 0:15:06.480 do a lot of backchilling because they look they can't 0:15:06.520 --> 0:15:10.680 go much further. They're being dismantled, their leadership, certainly the 0:15:10.720 --> 0:15:14.720 military side is being taken apart. Their nuclear sites have 0:15:14.120 --> 0:15:17.320 been pummeled, and so the question is how long? How 0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:18.440 much long can they go on? 0:15:18.960 --> 0:15:22.480 How can they even decide on some sort of retaliation 0:15:22.800 --> 0:15:26.400 or strike against the United States. If the Supreme Leader 0:15:26.760 --> 0:15:29.200 is reportedly hiding in a bunker, he's in his late 0:15:29.240 --> 0:15:32.640 eighties and he has no access even to electronic communication. 0:15:33.800 --> 0:15:36.080 Yeah, Look, that's the big question is who's in charge, 0:15:36.320 --> 0:15:39.720 How complete, how effective is the chain of command right now? 0:15:39.760 --> 0:15:42.960 Are there instructions left behind to the IRGC or to 0:15:43.040 --> 0:15:47.360 the missile forces to launch attacks that may may explain 0:15:47.400 --> 0:15:49.200 why they haven't responded here in the twenty four to 0:15:49.280 --> 0:15:52.320 thirty six hours since the US strikes on FDA, n 0:15:52.440 --> 0:15:53.240 Ton's and Esfahan. 0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:57.160 There's one theory out there, Secretary, that this could potentially 0:15:57.400 --> 0:16:00.560 reignite some of the efforts that are on has made 0:16:00.960 --> 0:16:04.600 to achieve nuclear status, because that is the only deterrence, 0:16:04.680 --> 0:16:07.640 and especially with the four hundred kilograms of enriched uranium 0:16:08.360 --> 0:16:12.240 missing into action, how concerned are you about that reality 0:16:12.560 --> 0:16:17.600 going underground and really having the Iranian officials expedite those efforts. 0:16:18.080 --> 0:16:19.520 Yeah, Look, you bring up a good point that I 0:16:19.560 --> 0:16:21.920 was going to raise. There's still nine hundred pounds of 0:16:22.360 --> 0:16:25.520 sixty percent enriched uranium that's fairly close to what they 0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:28.760 would need for ten nuclear weapons out there that we 0:16:28.840 --> 0:16:31.040 don't have control. We don't know where it is. The 0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:33.400 IE doesn't know where it is, so first of all, 0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:35.720 we have to track that down. Secondly, we don't know 0:16:35.760 --> 0:16:39.600 to what degree the Iranian infrastructure has been destroyed, and 0:16:39.960 --> 0:16:42.400 even if it has, it's just a matter of time 0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:44.840 before they rebuild. Now that at this point probably looks 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:48.960 more like years than anything else than months, but nonetheless, 0:16:49.200 --> 0:16:51.720 until there is a fundamental change in the ambitions of 0:16:51.760 --> 0:16:54.240 the regime or a fundamental change in the regime itself. 0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:58.200 This is likely an ambition that will grow back over time, 0:16:58.840 --> 0:17:02.960 arguably moreized than before because of what has happened here 0:17:03.000 --> 0:17:04.120 in the last couple weeks. 0:17:04.160 --> 0:17:06.360 There's a larger point, Secretary that other people have been 0:17:06.359 --> 0:17:09.320 making this morning, which is that it is a deterrent 0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:13.920 to say Russia to China, showing what the US military 0:17:14.040 --> 0:17:16.639 can do and is willing to do in the face 0:17:16.840 --> 0:17:19.919 of some sort of red line that gets crossed. Do 0:17:20.000 --> 0:17:21.920 you see it that way or do you see other 0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:25.200 nations and seeing the need to become nuclear or having 0:17:25.200 --> 0:17:29.480 some sort of deterrent that really takes this potential outcome 0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:30.159 off the table. 0:17:31.280 --> 0:17:34.240 You know, deterrence is based on two things, capability and will. 0:17:34.400 --> 0:17:36.800 And I think everybody's understood the United States military has 0:17:36.800 --> 0:17:39.000 the capability to do a lot of things. I don't 0:17:39.040 --> 0:17:40.960 think anybody ever doubted we could do what we did 0:17:41.320 --> 0:17:45.160 with regard to be two stealth bombers entering Iranian airspace 0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:47.720 and dropping these bunker busters. I think what is different 0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:50.520 here is President Trump has shown the willingness to do 0:17:50.560 --> 0:17:54.800 it despite domestic voices coming from both the right and 0:17:54.960 --> 0:17:56.879 left saying he shouldn't do it. So I think in 0:17:56.920 --> 0:17:59.920 this regard it's more of his willingness to take action, 0:18:00.440 --> 0:18:03.280 which probably caught Rushes and Beijing's attention. 0:18:03.400 --> 0:18:05.959 Well, this is one criticism of the previous administration, as 0:18:06.000 --> 0:18:09.200 you know, missed the secretary. The faibiates provide a satisfactory 0:18:09.520 --> 0:18:13.080 terrance in key waterways in this region, and I'm thinking 0:18:13.080 --> 0:18:15.600 more of the Red Sea over the last few years 0:18:15.680 --> 0:18:17.439 as we think about the Strait of Hormos, Can you 0:18:17.440 --> 0:18:19.639 just share with us what you learn about the best 0:18:19.680 --> 0:18:22.000 way to provide it to Terrance and to prevent the 0:18:22.040 --> 0:18:25.120 disruption of those waterways. Yeah. 0:18:25.160 --> 0:18:27.080 Well, look, I think sending a clear message first ball 0:18:27.119 --> 0:18:28.919 is important. But secondly, and I say this in light 0:18:28.960 --> 0:18:32.320 of the fact that the Iranian Parliament yesterday voted that 0:18:32.480 --> 0:18:34.600 Iran should close the Straight of Horror Moves, I think 0:18:34.600 --> 0:18:36.399 there's going to be a good argument if they strike 0:18:36.480 --> 0:18:39.479 back to take out the Iranian Navy, particularly those elements 0:18:39.520 --> 0:18:42.640 of the navy that could shut down or obstruct or 0:18:42.880 --> 0:18:44.840 hijack shipping in the Straight of hor Moves. So you 0:18:44.840 --> 0:18:48.400 could sink the mind layers of the navy. You could 0:18:48.440 --> 0:18:50.919 go after the swarm boats that tend to come up 0:18:51.000 --> 0:18:54.560 upon cargo tankers and take them ashore. You could knock 0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:58.680 out Iranian missile batteries on the coastline. So I think, 0:18:58.800 --> 0:19:00.359 to me, that would be the top of my list. 0:19:00.400 --> 0:19:03.600 If Iran tries to shut down the strait or takes 0:19:03.640 --> 0:19:06.000 more aggressive action, beat it to take that card out 0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:09.320 of their hand, because everybody is concerned about shutting down 0:19:09.359 --> 0:19:12.119 the straight of horror moves, and yet even though we 0:19:12.640 --> 0:19:14.600 fly in the face of their own interests, they continue 0:19:14.600 --> 0:19:15.000 to threaten. 0:19:15.040 --> 0:19:17.200 That difficult to answer the next question, sir, but just 0:19:17.240 --> 0:19:19.359 to find a question. Do you get the sense that 0:19:19.400 --> 0:19:22.840 American involvement in this operation is over or do you 0:19:22.840 --> 0:19:24.000 think this might be ongoing. 0:19:25.520 --> 0:19:28.280 I think it's to be determined based on how Iran responds. 0:19:28.320 --> 0:19:31.520 I think President Trump's instincts have long been since the 0:19:31.560 --> 0:19:33.040 time I work with him. He does not want to 0:19:33.040 --> 0:19:35.399 get involved in wars. He doesn't want this to go 0:19:35.480 --> 0:19:38.719 on and on and on. I think if Iran shoots 0:19:38.720 --> 0:19:41.800 missiles and they're largely effectless, I think we stand back. 0:19:42.119 --> 0:19:44.879 We probably continue to support the Israelis with munition and 0:19:44.920 --> 0:19:49.040 intelligence and defensive air defense capabilities. But I think in 0:19:49.119 --> 0:19:51.639 terms of continuing strikes, we probably step back at that 0:19:51.720 --> 0:19:54.679 time and then urge a negotiation. By the way, a 0:19:54.720 --> 0:19:57.240 negotiation between Iran and Israel that's going to have to 0:19:57.280 --> 0:20:01.399 include a return to the non proliferation room and inspectors 0:20:01.440 --> 0:20:03.840 and verification mechanisms on the ground in Iran. 0:20:03.960 --> 0:20:07.720 That's absolutely critical parteically thoughtful conversations. And we appreciate your time. 0:20:07.720 --> 0:20:20.080 They former US Defense Secretary Marc Astro stop of the 0:20:20.080 --> 0:20:22.040 price section and your morning coast. Let's send back to 0:20:22.040 --> 0:20:24.879 our top story about pricing for Iran's response after the 0:20:24.960 --> 0:20:28.159 US attacks. It's nuclear sites over the weekend, joining US 0:20:28.160 --> 0:20:31.040 now is standing and is ready. Ambassador to the United Nations, 0:20:31.119 --> 0:20:32.400 ambassador com monitor. 0:20:32.080 --> 0:20:33.520 It's good to say morning, thank you for having me. 0:20:33.640 --> 0:20:35.840 Let's talk about the events over the weekend, and let's 0:20:35.840 --> 0:20:38.480 talk about this also. Who's in charge in a round 0:20:38.560 --> 0:20:41.000 right now? Amory has been talking about this all morning, 0:20:41.000 --> 0:20:43.160 the chain of command. Who's in charge? 0:20:43.520 --> 0:20:46.920 Well, it's Aututel, you know, the other regime which still 0:20:47.000 --> 0:20:50.720 hath control over the population. But you know, U see 0:20:50.760 --> 0:20:53.040 statements coming out the minute door for in a furld 0:20:53.160 --> 0:20:57.320 is flying all over sending threats to either to the US. 0:20:57.640 --> 0:20:59.399 I don't think that they run today in a position 0:20:59.480 --> 0:21:02.480 to threaten anyone. They should think very carefully about the 0:21:02.560 --> 0:21:05.040 next steps, what they want to do, what they should do. 0:21:05.440 --> 0:21:08.199 You know, our position was very clear that we had 0:21:08.200 --> 0:21:11.480 the gold in this operation to degrade the capabilities. I 0:21:11.520 --> 0:21:14.199 think we achieved a lot so far. We still have 0:21:14.280 --> 0:21:16.440 more targets, but I think when you look at Iran 0:21:16.520 --> 0:21:18.880