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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm Pim

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Speaker 1: Fox along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day

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Speaker 1: we bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews

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Speaker 1: for you and your money, whether you're at the grocery

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Speaker 1: store or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P M

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Speaker 1: L Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com.

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Speaker 1: So we were talking about that healthcare bill that was

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Speaker 1: just released, and we want to bring in Max Niece

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Speaker 1: and bloombergad Fly columnists covering all things healthcare and Max

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Speaker 1: as Greg was just saying, healthcare shares are surging, Can

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Speaker 1: you give us a sense of what in this bill

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Speaker 1: that was just released caused this rally? Why is this

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Speaker 1: being viewed as a positive for the healthcare industry? Um?

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Speaker 1: You know, so I'm just like everybody else, including a

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Speaker 1: large number of Republican senator I'm still making my way

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Speaker 1: through the bill yet, I I you know, i'd like

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Speaker 1: to say I have, but but not quite yet. I'm

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Speaker 1: kind of just jumping through looking for snippets. Um. So

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Speaker 1: what it looks like is that this isn't kind of

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Speaker 1: a dramatic departure from what the House passed. There are

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Speaker 1: some modest differences to the subsidies that low income people get,

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Speaker 1: and um, some of the Medicaid cuts are deeper in

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Speaker 1: the long run, but this doesn't diverge dramatically from what

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Speaker 1: people know already. And I guess resolving some of that

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Speaker 1: uncertainty might, um might be causing some of that jump

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Speaker 1: in stock rise based on what you know, how likely

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Speaker 1: is this to be reconciled with the House bill and

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Speaker 1: actually make it to the President's desk. Um, You know,

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Speaker 1: I I think that the issue isn't gonna be reconciling

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Speaker 1: it with the House bill in this case, it's whether

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Speaker 1: it can get through the Senate, because I mean, the

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Speaker 1: really kind of salient detail here is that the Republican

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Speaker 1: senators who have to vote for have not seen it yet,

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Speaker 1: most of them, so they're kind of grappling it in

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Speaker 1: the same way that um, we are as reporters and

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Speaker 1: and the country is right now, so there are there

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Speaker 1: are things that some you know, conservatives aren't gonna like

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Speaker 1: parts of this bill, and moderates as well. It's the

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Speaker 1: same problem that's been there for the start politically, so

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Speaker 1: that's going to have to be worked throughing in a

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Speaker 1: pretty short time period. If they want to vote on

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Speaker 1: it next week. Well, and let's talk about the fact

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Speaker 1: that U. S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said

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Speaker 1: that he would like a vote to come next week.

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Speaker 1: And given the fact that it's just being released now,

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Speaker 1: even to some Republican the Republicans own members in the Senate, UM,

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Speaker 1: why do they want to rush this? Um? I think

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Speaker 1: the kind of thing we've learned over the course of

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Speaker 1: the process with the House polls that this bill doesn't

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Speaker 1: or this particular effort, policy effort does not age well,

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Speaker 1: does not hold up to UM. Scrutineer right Eric, particularly well,

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Speaker 1: it does some things that are are going to be

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Speaker 1: very unpopular, including weakening protections for those with pre existing

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Speaker 1: conditions in a different way than the House will, but

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Speaker 1: but a heres to still do so, and cutting Medicaid

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Speaker 1: really substantially, and that's not popular at all. Medicaid do

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Speaker 1: doesn't just cover low income people, it also covers kids

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Speaker 1: and a majority of people that are in nursing homes

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Speaker 1: in the United States. So, um, you know, they the

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Speaker 1: point of kind of rushing the process is potentially getting

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Speaker 1: less political backlash actually getting it done. For people. Senators

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Speaker 1: go back to their districts and get uh and get

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Speaker 1: another earful about the bill. Well that's the thing, right,

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Speaker 1: because of the congressional recess. Yeah, exactly. So Congress is

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Speaker 1: out after next week for a for a pretty long one,

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Speaker 1: and then again in August. So they really want to

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Speaker 1: get this done as quickly as they can. Just to

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Speaker 1: play devil's advocate. A lot of Republican Senate leaders have

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Speaker 1: come out and said, look, uh, more money does not

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Speaker 1: necessarily mean better healthcare, and they're trying to allocate cash

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Speaker 1: and and and create the right incentives to create a

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Speaker 1: better health care system. What's your response to that, Um,

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Speaker 1: I think that's just kind of typical uh rhetoric that

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Speaker 1: you hear. I mean, of course, government is not always

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Speaker 1: the most efficient way of allocating money. That I don't

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Speaker 1: I don't think anyone would argue that. But when you

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Speaker 1: cut in this case, Medicaid by more than eight hundred

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Speaker 1: billion dollars, people lose a lot of healthcare. That that's

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Speaker 1: just that's not an equation you can really contest or

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Speaker 1: argue with. And the same goes for subsidies for health insurance.

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Speaker 1: Let's get a little more detail from Max and Neeson

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Speaker 1: are a Bloomberg Gadfly columnist. Listening to both a Senator

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Speaker 1: Schumer and Senator McConnell, I wanted to begin by asking you.

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Speaker 1: Senator Schumer talked about affordable insurance, and I'm wondering he

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Speaker 1: made certain claims about this will do away with affordable

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Speaker 1: insurance for people. Is that accurate? I think it will

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Speaker 1: definitely be accurate for for certain subsets of the population.

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Speaker 1: And the ones that come to mind are people that

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Speaker 1: get subsidies under the A C A that will get

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Speaker 1: less generous subsidies under under they change the acronym. I

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Speaker 1: think it's the B C R A now UM. And

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Speaker 1: the other thing one that comes to mind is people

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Speaker 1: that lose coverage under the Medicaid Expansion or Medicaid in general,

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Speaker 1: and also people that have certain conditions. While the Senate

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Speaker 1: bill appears to maintain a prohibition against charging people with

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Speaker 1: pre existing conditions more which was states could wave that

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Speaker 1: under the House version, it does maintain um, the ability

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Speaker 1: for states to get rid of the requirement that states

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Speaker 1: cut that ensures cover a certain essential health benefits like

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Speaker 1: mental health care, for example, So you can't charge someone

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Speaker 1: with mental health care issues more. But you can offer

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Speaker 1: a plan that doesn't have mental health care in it

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Speaker 1: and make it much less expensive, and the plan with

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Speaker 1: that kind of care much more expensive, so effectively with people,

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Speaker 1: it's those sort of long term expensive issues. Health health

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Speaker 1: care will become unaffordable potentially in some states. Maxim struck

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Speaker 1: by the GOP's UH sent a proposal to include an

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Speaker 1: additional fifty billion dollars over four years to stay abilize

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Speaker 1: insurance exchanges. This was exactly the provision the Republicans have

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Speaker 1: criticized in the past, is a way to keep insurers

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Speaker 1: in the marketplace. Why did they reverse course and include this?

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Speaker 1: I think it was an effort to kind of build

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Speaker 1: a broader consensus around the bill. Um, you know, some

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Speaker 1: more near term stability and and more cynically, Um, it

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Speaker 1: just means that going into the next couple of electoral

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Speaker 1: cycles you have a more stable market. A lot of

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Speaker 1: the impact of this bill the kind of big shift

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Speaker 1: from the households that it's pushed out further, so the

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Speaker 1: big Medicaid cuts, the ending of the Medicaid expansion, it's

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Speaker 1: pushed out a little bit further. The big changes to

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Speaker 1: the A c A as well. UM, and that's kind

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Speaker 1: of evidence by these these funds. So that might create

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Speaker 1: a problem with the conservative wing of the party. They

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Speaker 1: they especially hated these payments when they were part of

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Speaker 1: the A C. A. They won't like it. That something

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Speaker 1: that could be described, I imagine as something of a

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Speaker 1: bailout by by that wing of the party. It's now

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Speaker 1: in this bill, so that might be a problem. Thank

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Speaker 1: you so much for joining us Maxnis and Blueberg Gadfly columnists.

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Speaker 1: UH you can follow his work at Bloomberg dot com

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Speaker 1: slash gad fly, and I'm sure Max you will be

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Speaker 1: opining on this proposal. Center Republic Industry Itierate did release

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Speaker 1: their healthcare proposals to replace Obamacare, providing an additional fifty

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Speaker 1: billion dollars over four years to stabilize insurance exchanges. This

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Speaker 1: is the plan that has been long awaited that Senate

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Speaker 1: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell would like to have a vote

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Speaker 1: on as soon as next week, and it will affect

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Speaker 1: a broad swath of the US economy. Right now, we

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Speaker 1: are looking at oil prices that are finding some stability

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Speaker 1: after a pretty significant swoon, after falling to the lowest

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Speaker 1: levels UH in ten months. It is rising just a

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Speaker 1: bit with the value of crude going to forty three

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Speaker 1: a little over forty three dollars a barrel. To get

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Speaker 1: a better sense of the direction of these prices, I

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Speaker 1: want to bring in John killed Off. He has founding

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Speaker 1: partner of again at Capital in New York. John, have

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Speaker 1: we seen the lows this year? Four crew? It's hard

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Speaker 1: to tell at this moment not to uh cop out

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Speaker 1: or avoid your question. Yesterday's sell off to two oh

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Speaker 1: five a barrel with significant it matches up with the

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Speaker 1: low from November. So there's a potential for technical traders

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Speaker 1: to see that as a double bottom, and I'm having

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Speaker 1: to abide that at the moment. But really I think

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Speaker 1: the path of least resistance is still lower down into

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Speaker 1: the upper thirties, upper thirties. How long would it stay there,

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Speaker 1: that's a good question, PIM. I think it would stay

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Speaker 1: there um for a good amount of time. What the

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Speaker 1: market is right now in the process of doing is

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Speaker 1: is calling and taking OPEC to task for not doing enough,

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Speaker 1: so they're challenging. The market gets into these modes where

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Speaker 1: they challenge the producing community, sometimes on the upside. Right

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Speaker 1: now it's on the downside to react and the statis

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Speaker 1: apparently are scrambling right now to to find the way

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Speaker 1: to react to this and to get the prices back up. John,

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Speaker 1: when I talk with bulls oil bulls, they say, look

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Speaker 1: Saudio Saudi Arabia in particular has great incentive to prop

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Speaker 1: up and give a floor to oil prices based on

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Speaker 1: the fact that they're planning to do an initial public

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Speaker 1: offering for Saudi Aramco in the near future. What do

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Speaker 1: you say to those traders who still have faith that

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Speaker 1: there will be a floor because of those political incentives. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think that the sadis you know, bristle at having

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Speaker 1: to go with a loan. They've they've been carrying most

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Speaker 1: of the load since the beginning, and now they're having

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Speaker 1: to deal with potentially covering as the as the oil

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Speaker 1: Minister put it, Libya and Nigeria, whose production in a

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Speaker 1: surprise I think to the market and certainly to OPEC

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Speaker 1: and the non OPEC participants have come rowing back. They're

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Speaker 1: back to really full output from being near zero for

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Speaker 1: the better part of the year or two oh in

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Speaker 1: the Historically, the Staudies reach a point where they won't

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Speaker 1: do it, and they instead turned press the market by

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Speaker 1: over supplying it. Now, this Stadio ramfil thing is a

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Speaker 1: new wrinkle. And with the new Crown Prince and the

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Speaker 1: new oil Minister, UH, they seem more committed to engineering

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Speaker 1: a higher price, potentially through more cutbacks. But boy, it's

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Speaker 1: a bitter pill for them to swallow, and historically in

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Speaker 1: my experience with them, they don't swallow it. Well, John,

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Speaker 1: to bring into the equation the swing producer, the United

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Speaker 1: States and its role in uh not only domestic energy markets,

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Speaker 1: but now international energy markets as an exporter, well that

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Speaker 1: and that is the big monkey wrench that has also

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Speaker 1: been thrown into this OPAC non OPEC agreement UM. And

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Speaker 1: also to keep pointing out to everyone that while the

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Speaker 1: shale players get all the glory and the headlines, you know,

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Speaker 1: like a big wide receiver on a football team, we've

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Speaker 1: had a lot of production increases from the Gulf of

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Speaker 1: Mexico this year from projects that have been on in

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Speaker 1: the works for years, and they're that production is not

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Speaker 1: going away no matter how low prices go. And a

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Speaker 1: lot of the shale plates have hedged a lot of

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Speaker 1: their production when prices got back up into the that

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Speaker 1: production is going to be a lot more stickier this

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Speaker 1: time around. And as you said, pim Uh China in

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Speaker 1: particular has sought out the U S shale producer oil

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Speaker 1: and we've been exporting increased the masts to China again

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Speaker 1: in a battle from market share with the Saudis that

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Speaker 1: they bristle at historically, that they don't accept and that

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Speaker 1: they end up fighting back on. So that's that's the

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Speaker 1: issue I had with all of this, and I really

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Speaker 1: think there's a potential, uh for the production war to breakout,

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Speaker 1: not a price war. You know, John, just wanted to

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Speaker 1: get your thoughts on some of these leveraged shale producers

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Speaker 1: in the US, UH. You know, they they are thought

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Speaker 1: as the swing producer and having the upper hand frankly,

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Speaker 1: but if you look at the debt markets, particularly energy

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Speaker 1: junk bonds, they have dropped more than three and a

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Speaker 1: half percent so far this month, and there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of concern that we're going to see another wave of carnage.

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Speaker 1: What's your what's your feeling in that space? We start

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Speaker 1: seeing largely the washout of the weakest players. No, I

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Speaker 1: think if we get down into the upper thirties, they'll

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Speaker 1: be more of that to come. Enough of their production.

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Speaker 1: Any of these folks to get them through. I think

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Speaker 1: another episode like that. Um, and all right, we're gonna John,

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Speaker 1: we gotta break in, John Kildeff. I want to thank

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Speaker 1: you breaking in. John Killoff is the founding partner of

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Speaker 1: Again Capital. Let's get a little bit more detail about

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Speaker 1: this potential deal. I want to bring in Dina Camel

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Speaker 1: Middle East aviation reporter joining us from Dubai and Michael

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Speaker 1: Sasso airline reporter from Bloomberg News joining us from Atlanta. Dina,

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Speaker 1: maybe you could speak a little bit about what Squtar

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Speaker 1: bring to any kind of shareholding and what is the

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Speaker 1: connection between Cutar Airways and global air travel. Yes, high there, Um, Actually,

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Speaker 1: this is not the first time that we're seeing Cutar

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Speaker 1: Airways go into this type of venture, and already in

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Speaker 1: in April, we saw the Cutar Airways CEO of Rebecca

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Speaker 1: say that he was thinking of adding one more acquisition

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Speaker 1: to his portfolio of you know, many many airlines and

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Speaker 1: many previous purchases. Um. So today's announcement is actually one

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Speaker 1: in a series of acquisitions that the airline has already done. Um.

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Speaker 1: The first one was, you know, gradually building up a

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Speaker 1: stake in British Airways. Parents I g UH. They've also

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Speaker 1: recently tooken up, taken up ten percent of latam um.

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Speaker 1: So they've been pursuing an organic growth. And this latest

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Speaker 1: interest in in American sort of completes the triangle of

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Speaker 1: of trying to capture traffic from across the Atlantic. I

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Speaker 1: want to bring in Michael here. So cut Our Airways

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Speaker 1: has been criticized by American airlines for unfair competition. What

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Speaker 1: does this potential investment in American airlines do with respect

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Speaker 1: to the rivalry here? Well, I think that's the big question. Um,

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Speaker 1: there's some you know, I've heard some analysis that maybe

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Speaker 1: Cutter is trying to get a foothold in this controversy

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Speaker 1: in the United States. You may be aware that all

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Speaker 1: three of the US major US airlines, including American Delta,

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Speaker 1: UH and UH and United Airways United Airlines all have

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Speaker 1: trying to bring a trade case against Cutter and Emirates

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Speaker 1: and ATA Airways, suggesting that they're unfairly flooding the US

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Speaker 1: market with with cheap flights, that they're being subsidized by

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Speaker 1: their home governments. I mean, there's a there's a thought

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Speaker 1: out there that maybe this could be some attempt to

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Speaker 1: influence that process. Uh. Some could they have some influence

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Speaker 1: in with the Trump administration or some influence with American maybe, Uh,

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Speaker 1: but that's just kind of spot analysis. Well, and we're

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Speaker 1: not exactly sure yet. Well, and you talk about the

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Speaker 1: conflict between Cutter Air and some of the US airlines,

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Speaker 1: but the conflict with Cutter goes much beyond that. I mean,

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Speaker 1: recently we've seen a lot of news coming out of

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Speaker 1: the Middle East with respect to Saudi Arabia and it's

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Speaker 1: worsening relationship with Cutter as well as with the U

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Speaker 1: s Dina. Can you speak a little bit about how

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Speaker 1: this type of investment complicates that or is uh perhaps

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Speaker 1: despite that or as a result of that. I mean,

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Speaker 1: just to remind people, cut Our Air is state owned. Yes,

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Speaker 1: that's that's correct. It might be a little bit too

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Speaker 1: early to stay at at this point. Um, how this

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Speaker 1: plays into the geopolitical tensions that that cuts are is

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Speaker 1: facing at the moment um. As you correctly pointed out,

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Speaker 1: cut Our the nation is being isolated by four other

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Speaker 1: neighboring Arab countries Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UM, Bahain and the

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Speaker 1: United Arab Emirates UM for who accused Cutter, UM for

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Speaker 1: supporting UM Islamic terrorism and financing extremists UM, which are

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Speaker 1: allegations that that cut our denies UM and and and

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Speaker 1: in the meantime, they've also closed down UM their airspace

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Speaker 1: to all Cutari flights. So let's just put cutter airways.

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Speaker 1: UH in a very difficult situation. UH, it's it's had

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Speaker 1: to face longer reroutes, very expensive reroutes around that airspace. UM.

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Speaker 1: So the idea that it's now trying to UM solidify

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Speaker 1: its partnerships, you know, with one World members UM and

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Speaker 1: and basically trying to diversify its streams of of of

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Speaker 1: revenue so that it's not reliant on any one part

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Speaker 1: of the world too heavily UM for where it's earnings

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Speaker 1: come from. UM AND. I think that move ties in

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Speaker 1: with the political pressure that it's that it's facing here

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Speaker 1: in the region. Already, it's been denied access to eighteen

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Speaker 1: destinations in those four countries that are imposing the ban,

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Speaker 1: so there's a sense that it wants to diversify and

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Speaker 1: and and spread itself across regions. Well, I want to

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Speaker 1: thank you very much both of you for really giving

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Speaker 1: us some detail about what is going on. Dina kamel

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Speaker 1: is our Middle Eastern aviation reporter. She joins us from Dubai.

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Speaker 1: Michael Sassau, our airline reporter, coming to us from Atlanta.

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Speaker 1: Let's turn our attention now to the big topic of

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Speaker 1: asset price inflation. Brentan Brown is the chief economist and

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Speaker 1: head of economic research for Mitsubishi u f J Securities.

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Speaker 1: He is also the author of a Global Monetary Plague,

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Speaker 1: Asset Price Inflation, and Federal Reserve Quantitative Easing. Good to

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Speaker 1: have you with us here in our studio. Thanks for

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Speaker 1: being here. Maybe you just can begin by talking about

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Speaker 1: this idea of bubbles and asset price inflation. How is

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Speaker 1: it defined and how should we be applying those concepts

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Speaker 1: to what we see in the stock and bond in

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Speaker 1: commodity markets currently. So, asset price inflation is the unleashing

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Speaker 1: of irrational forces in markets by monetary distortions. And what

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Speaker 1: I mean by that is interest rates being pressed way

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Speaker 1: below natural neutral level and to expand. And why that's happening,

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Speaker 1: I would say over the last twenty years and especially

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Speaker 1: the last ten years, pressure of globalization China coming into

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Speaker 1: world markets pushes prices down, which in general most people

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Speaker 1: gain from In terms of our real living standards. The

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Speaker 1: FED and other central banks have been trying trying to

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Speaker 1: get to this two percent inflation standard. Goodness knows where

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Speaker 1: it came from, and certain not in a Federal Reserve Act.

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Speaker 1: Nobody's ever mandated two percent inflation. But the Fed, somehow,

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Speaker 1: out of its own wisdom, decided two percent inflation. But

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Speaker 1: if you aim for two percent inflation when the natural

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Speaker 1: rhythm of prices is actually downwards, you can only do

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Speaker 1: that by by pushing rates way low, very low, and

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Speaker 1: keeping them very low. And that's that creates a desperation

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Speaker 1: for yield. And that desperation for yield shows up in

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Speaker 1: all these areas of of of irrational forces gaining the

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Speaker 1: upper upper force. So Brendan, it's been about five years

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Speaker 1: of people warning about as at price bubbles and the

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Speaker 1: potential demise of the financial system when they collapse. And

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Speaker 1: here we are twenty seventeen. The feed is starting to

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Speaker 1: high rates, and you do see stock prices climbing higher.

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Speaker 1: While there are some jitters in the high O bond market,

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Speaker 1: for example, because of oil prices, we have not seen

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Speaker 1: an implosion. Does that mean that it's not going to happen?

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Speaker 1: I would make two points here. I think, first of all,

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Speaker 1: the monetary force or the monetary monetary distortions this equilibrium,

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Speaker 1: I would say, have actually been growing UM in the

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Speaker 1: last eighteen months. First, we had for yelling FED last

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Speaker 1: year walking back from rate rises because of a China shock.

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Speaker 1: This year we've had the surprise for for Trump administration

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Speaker 1: did nothing to change matters in the FED, whereas there

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Speaker 1: were expectations that they may, and we've had the ECB

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Speaker 1: and the b o J merrily going on with their

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Speaker 1: QUI expansions and negative rates or though that had been

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Speaker 1: some expectations that would all slow down. So if anything,

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Speaker 1: we've had an increase in this monetary stimulus. As we

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Speaker 1: listen to some of these policies in these House and

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Speaker 1: the Senate hearings, how much do you pay attention as

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Speaker 1: an economist? How much does this way on your growth

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Speaker 1: outlook and the way you assess you as economy well,

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Speaker 1: the whether the fiscal plans and the tax cut move

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Speaker 1: ahead is one of the factors go into the economic outlook.

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Speaker 1: But I do tend to think that the importance of

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Speaker 1: UM shouldn't be exaggerated. UM. At best, it looks as

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Speaker 1: if what we're getting here is going to be some

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Speaker 1: sort of temporary tax cut rather than permanent. But haven't

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Speaker 1: you've written that they've that the Trump administration as well

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Speaker 1: as the Republicans in Congress, they've squandered an opportunity in

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Speaker 1: another area. But maybe this is all conflated in some way. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, if one looks at the trio of what's

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Speaker 1: making up for Trump administration program now um of infrastructure,

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Speaker 1: tax reform, health, the big gap in all of this is,

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Speaker 1: of course, anything on the monetary side. We have a

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Speaker 1: tremendous as we were discussing earlier, monetary distortion going on

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Speaker 1: at the FED, aiming for two percent inflation target, long

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Speaker 1: term interest rate controls, and nothing is on foreseeable legender

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Speaker 1: to change any of this. And that's you know, you

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Speaker 1: only have to read Milton Freeland's Capitalism Freedom to to

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Speaker 1: realize that any agenda of economic reform and unleashing forces

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Speaker 1: in a capitalist economy has to start with monetary reform.

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Speaker 1: You know, I'm struck by what JP Morgats Bob Michael

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Speaker 1: said earlier today on Bloomberg Television, which is, at some

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Speaker 1: point some of some of President Trump's policies will get

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Speaker 1: past and there will be an upside surprise with healthcare.

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Speaker 1: For example, healthcare is almost eighteen per cent of the

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Speaker 1: U S economy, and we do see healthcare share surging

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Speaker 1: on the prospect that there will be some solidification of

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Speaker 1: what the outlook is for healthcare in the US. But

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Speaker 1: you're saying any step they take will probably be incremental

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Speaker 1: and won't necessarily have uh that material of it of

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Speaker 1: an impact on the on the growth outlook in terms

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Speaker 1: of overall growth outlook. Yes, I mean, I think the

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Speaker 1: main growth positive aspect of the Trump fiscal agenda is

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Speaker 1: the cut in corporation tax, which will bring some economic

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Speaker 1: activity back from low tax jurisdictions abroad, whether it's Canada

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Speaker 1: or other places in and that in the longer term

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Speaker 1: will boost economic activity in the United States. By the way,

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Speaker 1: that will put some pressure upwards on wages. I mean,

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Speaker 1: these these measures to boost production in the United States

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Speaker 1: basically come to increased demand for US labor. It's not

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Speaker 1: necessarily going to be as positive as maybe Wall Street

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Speaker 1: imagines for earnings and equities. You know, I've heard so

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Speaker 1: many people talk about what will or won't boost inflation,

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Speaker 1: and so many people have gotten this so wrong. Do

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Speaker 1: you find yourself questioning what will actually lead to higher

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Speaker 1: wages is given the frustration and lack of understanding of

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Speaker 1: why they e remained so stagnant. I I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I don't believe that wages are a key element to

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Speaker 1: look for in an inflationary process. I think the inflationary

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Speaker 1: process is in this cycle is asset prices. And I

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Speaker 1: think also we have an inflationary dimension in goods and

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Speaker 1: services markets, but it's not immediately apparent. And what I

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Speaker 1: mean by that is that if you measured inflation today

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Speaker 1: in the United States, and say way as it was

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Speaker 1: measured in the fifties and sixties or any time before that,

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Speaker 1: without all this hedonic price adjustment, today's inflation rate would

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Speaker 1: be three and a half to four percent UM. So

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Speaker 1: so there is an inflation there. If you have asset

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Speaker 1: price inflation was always going to be good inflation alongside,

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Speaker 1: because it's part of the same phenomenon, but it's it's

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Speaker 1: not necessarily immediately apparent. Last question, Now we are awaiting

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Speaker 1: comments from President Trump, who is meeting with a big

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Speaker 1: technology company leaders in Washington. I just wanted to get

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Speaker 1: your sense, Brennan, going forward, do you agree with guests

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Speaker 1: on previously in this program that we have five more

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Speaker 1: years in this credit cycle. I I would never say

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Speaker 1: anything like that. I think we're we I hate to

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Speaker 1: say we're in a new, new era or new experiment.

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Speaker 1: But the enormity of this particular monetary distortion, with every

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Speaker 1: major central bank pursuing or having huge balance sheets and

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Speaker 1: interest rates so low low, is something we haven't encountered before.

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Speaker 1: We have encountered asset price inflation before, but for example,

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Speaker 1: size of asset price inflations is small. It's probably eight

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Speaker 1: in the last hundred years. And to find one with

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Speaker 1: this degree of a normality of of distortions, I can't

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Speaker 1: find um. Moreover, this is happening in an era when

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Speaker 1: there isn't much good economic news. You know, previous asset

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Speaker 1: price inflations have mostly been accompanied by fantastic economic good news,

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Speaker 1: whether it was the late nineteen nineties or with late

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Speaker 1: nineteen twenties. First time there isn't good news. So so

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Speaker 1: with a lot of differences, but if you asked me

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Speaker 1: for the bottom line, I think the new mare is

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Speaker 1: going to be more within the next two years rather

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Speaker 1: than five years. Thank you very much for joining us. A.

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Speaker 1: Brendan Brown as chief economist and head of Economic Research

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Speaker 1: for Mitsubishi u f J Securities. Thanks for listening to

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can subscribe and

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Speaker 1: listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast

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Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at

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00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:58,360
Speaker 1: pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one

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Speaker 1: before the podcast. You can now plays Catch us worldwide

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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio