Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing
Speaker 1: you the latest news from the worlds of business and finance,
Speaker 1: plus technology, politics, economics, all partnising the power of Business
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Speaker 1: can download Bloomberg Business Week at iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg
Speaker 1: dot Com. You can also listen to our radio show
Speaker 1: at two pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch
Speaker 1: us on YouTube. Searched Bloomberg Clobal News well. Last month,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg News reported that the fallout from the nursing shortage
Speaker 1: that's plaguing US hospitals it got so bad that six
Speaker 1: of the nurses at just one Pennsylvania facility in the
Speaker 1: western part of the state left last year, and twenty
Speaker 1: two of those remaining stage day five day walkout that
Speaker 1: halted elective surgery twenty excuse me, so a significant number
Speaker 1: of nurses there. Things aren't likely to get better anytime
Speaker 1: soon either. The US forecast and annual average of one
Speaker 1: thousand five hundred openings for registered nurses through twenty We've
Speaker 1: got a great voice on all of this. Dr mont
Speaker 1: Abusaide is the co founder and CEO of Incredible Health.
Speaker 1: It's a marketplace for connecting hospitals to nursing talent. She
Speaker 1: joins us once again on the phone, this time from Austin.
Speaker 1: Dr Abuzaide, how are you. I'm doing well. Thank you
Speaker 1: so much for having me. Yeah, it's good to have
Speaker 1: you back with us. I just want to get an
Speaker 1: update before you get into all the great data that
Speaker 1: you guys have on what nursing staffing challenges are looking
Speaker 1: like throughout the country, because you've just got a great
Speaker 1: view on that data. Yeah, absolutely so. Overall it is
Speaker 1: continuing to look look very challenging across the board. You know,
Speaker 1: our population, the US population is aging. That's clearly more
Speaker 1: demand on the healthcare system, and he supplied workers have
Speaker 1: not kept up with that demand. Um, we're seeing increasing
Speaker 1: turnover among nurses across the country. The average turnover right
Speaker 1: now is about twenty one and a half the set,
Speaker 1: whereas before the pandemic it was at seventeen percent. And
Speaker 1: Dr I want to get into some of the data
Speaker 1: that you sent over to US so incredible health. He
Speaker 1: served twelve GENC nurses. You found that SEV pointed to
Speaker 1: staffing shortages as their main concern in entering the field.
Speaker 1: Something you could walk us through that a little bit,
Speaker 1: because when staffing shortages, you know, present an opportunity to
Speaker 1: these new nurses trying to enter the field. Yeah. Absolutely, So,
Speaker 1: you know, new UH nursing schools are seeing higher than
Speaker 1: ever applications and are also um graduating more more nurses
Speaker 1: than ever before in the history of the US. However,
Speaker 1: despite that activity, it's still it's still not meeting the
Speaker 1: needs of the staffing needs of the health system. UM.
Speaker 1: You know, the the new nurses when they are graduating,
Speaker 1: they're really looking at two areas. Primarily, number one is
Speaker 1: like how well is this unit staff. The reason they
Speaker 1: care about that is because they don't want to be overworked.
Speaker 1: And two and the second reason is because they want
Speaker 1: to make sure that they're going to be well trained
Speaker 1: by experienced nurses. UM. On the job training is an
Speaker 1: area that new grad nurses and gen Z nurses focus
Speaker 1: on a lot because the termans you know, how successful
Speaker 1: they are in the early parts of their clear Okay,
Speaker 1: so it sounds like what you're saying is that you know,
Speaker 1: for many of these new nurses they're looking at the
Speaker 1: landscape right now and saying this is a recipe for burnout.
Speaker 1: Exactly seventy already feel report feeling overloaded and overwhelmed um
Speaker 1: during their on boarding process as they're joining a new
Speaker 1: employer and uh, and they're really exciting inefficient training systems
Speaker 1: and not having enough experienced nurses to train them. I'm
Speaker 1: wondering dr opposite if we're going to see you know,
Speaker 1: I shared these statistics early on in our in our conversation,
Speaker 1: just the delta between open positions and available nurses given
Speaker 1: what you know at Incredible Health, is it possible for
Speaker 1: the US to actually fill that annual average of onod
Speaker 1: and five hundred openings for registered nurses that is set
Speaker 1: to go through right now. It is not actually possible.
Speaker 1: There are not enough nurses to fill fulfill those roles.
Speaker 1: We know that there are many helpeses because staring um
Speaker 1: hire muses from abroad. Uh. And we know that there's
Speaker 1: going to be continuing increases of of of nursing schools
Speaker 1: needing to graduate more and more nurses. So what's the
Speaker 1: way to fix this. So I don't enough. So what's
Speaker 1: the way to fix this. There's a couple of ways
Speaker 1: that we need. A couple of areas where we need
Speaker 1: to focus. Number one is UH continuing to invest in
Speaker 1: the training of nurses, particularly after nursing school so UH
Speaker 1: expanding the training programs that are available for nurses. Are
Speaker 1: still very few hospitals, not enough hospitals in this country
Speaker 1: that are willing to train UH nurses into different specialty areas.
Speaker 1: We also need to continue to increase the capacity of
Speaker 1: nursing schools so they can train more nurses as well.
Speaker 1: And I'm curious. It stuck out to me that you
Speaker 1: survey gen Z nurses in particular, and I mean, is
Speaker 1: this uniquely a problem among gen Z nurses or would
Speaker 1: you suspect that it's all age categories. It's happening in
Speaker 1: all age categories. But the reason we really focused in
Speaker 1: on the gen Z nurses because they are the next
Speaker 1: generation of nurses that's entering the workforce right now. The
Speaker 1: nursing workforce in the US comprises of five different generations,
Speaker 1: and so what's going on with this This this newest
Speaker 1: one is critical to ensuring the success of the future
Speaker 1: of the US nurse workforce. Um. The other thing that
Speaker 1: we the other thing, the reason we focus on it
Speaker 1: is we knew that this this cohort has unique challenges
Speaker 1: and so we really these products and features that support them.
Speaker 1: You know, they have their one third of the employers
Speaker 1: on the Incredible Health platform are using the platform to
Speaker 1: hire in your graduate nurses. We've on job matching for
Speaker 1: them as well as career coaching that's needed for them. Uh,
Speaker 1: it's always to improve their experience as they're entering the workforce.
Speaker 1: Dr man Abuse, the co founder and CEO of Incredible Health,
Speaker 1: joining us on the phone from Austin, Texas. Really appreciate
Speaker 1: your time once again, Dr Abuse. You're listening to Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Business Week with Carol Measure and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim
Speaker 1: Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Think back to November, but I
Speaker 1: didn't selected. Jennet Yellen is the first female Treasury Secretary.
Speaker 1: It was considered a master stroke. The thinking was that
Speaker 1: her impeccable economic credentials would allow her to stay above
Speaker 1: the fray. Instead, the former chair of the Fed now
Speaker 1: finds herself in the middle of a brawl in Washington,
Speaker 1: where the latest worry is that the Fed's quest attainment
Speaker 1: inflation will plunge the country into a recession, pushing up
Speaker 1: unemployment from the historic lows achieved under yelling those words
Speaker 1: from Selea Mosen, senior Washington correspondent for Bloomberg News. She
Speaker 1: joins us on the phone from Washington, d C. And
Speaker 1: that's part of a story in the current issue of
Speaker 1: Bloomberg business Week. Also joining us as Joel Webber, the
Speaker 1: editor of Bloomberg Business Week. He's with us in the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Joel, I think to myself after
Speaker 1: reading this piece, poor Jennet Yellen, Poor Jenney Yellen. I
Speaker 1: guess that could have been the headline for the story. Uh.
Speaker 1: And and you're right. And the thing that has been
Speaker 1: amazing to watch here has been inflation. Just take everyone
Speaker 1: by surprise, not only on Wall Street, but all so
Speaker 1: in Washington. And here you have Janet Yellen, who's absolutely storied,
Speaker 1: impeccable resume from her time at the FED, gets tapped
Speaker 1: by Biden to take over Treasury, and then all of
Speaker 1: a sudden inflation starts, um, you know, slapping Biden on
Speaker 1: both cheeks back and forth for for months on end.
Speaker 1: And uh, you know, in that moment um Yellen took
Speaker 1: the Biden White House by surprise and said she was
Speaker 1: wrong about the path that inflation would take. And that
Speaker 1: ends up being this great little insight into the Biden
Speaker 1: White House d c UH policy in general, and and
Speaker 1: the you know, just the the troublesome foe that inflation
Speaker 1: is um but sle for you, what did it reveal,
Speaker 1: you know, to me, it showed that it's important to
Speaker 1: have a Treasury Secretary who has the trust at a
Speaker 1: personal relationship and the ear of the President of the
Speaker 1: of the United States. The fact that, as I wrote
Speaker 1: in the story, that Chief Is asked Ron Plaine from
Speaker 1: the White House didn't invite Secretary Yellen two key meetings
Speaker 1: where they were going to discuss how to message and
Speaker 1: talk about the economy, they didn't invite her just says
Speaker 1: that she is not seen as someone who needs to
Speaker 1: be involved in every step of the way. And you know,
Speaker 1: really I was talking to some executives last week after
Speaker 1: the story came out. They were saying that Yellen just
Speaker 1: needs to call up President Biden say I need to
Speaker 1: be in every single meeting and we you and I
Speaker 1: need to talk one on one about what's really happening
Speaker 1: in the economy, because maybe Biden is not getting the
Speaker 1: bad news. And how I mean compared this to past
Speaker 1: administrations and the relationship that the president typically has with
Speaker 1: the Treasury secretary. How unusual is it that I mean,
Speaker 1: people are saying that conversation even needs to happen, that
Speaker 1: Yellen isn't being invited to these key meetings and needs
Speaker 1: to speak up. You know, this is part of the
Speaker 1: jockeying when you're at the highest levels of power. There
Speaker 1: are always going to be people inside the White House
Speaker 1: who want to have the ear of the president. We
Speaker 1: thought this very clearly play out in the Trump administration,
Speaker 1: and it's just up to you know, if you are
Speaker 1: a Captinet officer, you have been confirmed by the Senate
Speaker 1: and you go to down there to Capital Hill for
Speaker 1: those grillings over your work, then it is your job
Speaker 1: to say, hey, I am going to be in charge.
Speaker 1: So who has President Biden deferred to? Who is the
Speaker 1: administration deferred to? Instead of the traditional role of the
Speaker 1: Treasury Secretary going out in front of the media and
Speaker 1: facing the media, who's doing that? Now? What we're seeing
Speaker 1: is that the White House is National Economic Director Brian Deaf,
Speaker 1: who is actually not an economist. He's a lawyer by training.
Speaker 1: He is the one who is talking the most about
Speaker 1: the economy publicly, and he seems to be running a
Speaker 1: lot of the meetings and being the point man. Now
Speaker 1: in part, that is his job, that that role was
Speaker 1: created under the Clinton administration to kind of have an
Speaker 1: inter agency process of hey, everyone, all the stakeholders of
Speaker 1: various parts of the economy, how we can all work
Speaker 1: to other. But somehow it seems like Yellin's views, you know,
Speaker 1: she has this sterling reputation, uh, and she is not
Speaker 1: being listened to. It is his job, Brian d'ss job,
Speaker 1: and Ron Clean the chief of staff job, to say,
Speaker 1: let's make sure we are listening to this top shelf
Speaker 1: economists that we tapped, and so how is that conversation
Speaker 1: going to go from here? So, because obviously it shows
Speaker 1: that there's a little bit of a riff between Treasury
Speaker 1: and the White House. How much patience does Jennet you
Speaker 1: don't even have to stick around in government, you know,
Speaker 1: I think a lot of it is going to come
Speaker 1: down to voters. We're going to hear from them in
Speaker 1: November a referendum on the democratic economic policy, and if
Speaker 1: it comes out as you know what, we expect a
Speaker 1: pretty big wipeout for Democrats. That is the natural point
Speaker 1: at which a president and his captain officers consider, you know,
Speaker 1: for the president's side, do I need to rebuild any
Speaker 1: of my team's economic or national security or foreign policy team,
Speaker 1: And for Janet Allen to think, well, look, if I'm
Speaker 1: not useful in this administration, then do I need to
Speaker 1: stay a select One of the most interesting parts of
Speaker 1: this story, and it's full of really great tidbits, encourage
Speaker 1: everybody to check it out, is the reporting that you
Speaker 1: did around Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and her thoughts on
Speaker 1: sanctions against Russia or lack thereof. Um talk to us
Speaker 1: about what you found. Yeah, that was really interesting. It
Speaker 1: turns out that there was a momentous to day February six,
Speaker 1: two days after Putin invaded and the G seven the
Speaker 1: European Union, everyone had, you know, done shuttle diplomacy at
Speaker 1: the highest levels of power, eighteen hour work days and decided, okay,
Speaker 1: we can all get together and levy extremely punishing sanctions
Speaker 1: that will shock Vladimir Putin. Uh In What they thought
Speaker 1: could be just a seventy two hour operation to take
Speaker 1: down Kiev in Ukraine. And it was Saturday morning, and
Speaker 1: Jenny Allen said to the President in a in a
Speaker 1: situation room meeting that I'm not ready for this. And
Speaker 1: it took a foreign prime minister, Italy's Mario Joggy to
Speaker 1: bring her on board. And what that showed us was
Speaker 1: that maybe she's not nimble enough for the type of
Speaker 1: work that needs to be done in an administration compared
Speaker 1: to a central bank. That's a really interesting insight, you know.
Speaker 1: The other one, Celia, that it just made me kind
Speaker 1: of wonder about, was like, you know, at the beginning
Speaker 1: of the Biden presidency, uh, you know, one of the
Speaker 1: foremost things that yean and champion was this idea of
Speaker 1: a new global tax sort of architecture, and it's been
Speaker 1: hinted at that that might be in jeopardy. What's the
Speaker 1: latest on that front since that was so near and
Speaker 1: dear to her, You know, it really depends on who
Speaker 1: you ask. Um. I've heard from some people that Poland
Speaker 1: is the holdout in Europe and with one no vote,
Speaker 1: the whole thing can be vetoed, meaning that you does
Speaker 1: not sign up on this your landmark deal. But it
Speaker 1: seems like they're the concessions that they want are manageable.
Speaker 1: But look, even if Janet Yellen wins a hundred and
Speaker 1: forty countries uh, you know, consensus to sign on to
Speaker 1: this deal, she still has to get support from Congress,
Speaker 1: and she doesn't have deep ties over there. Yeah. What
Speaker 1: I found so interesting about this is, I mean the
Speaker 1: political aspect of this too, and to what extent voters
Speaker 1: actually care about something like this, Sleia, just in the
Speaker 1: last thirty seconds we have with you, No, this is
Speaker 1: not a kitchen table issue. They don't care about corporate
Speaker 1: max rate, especially when they see gas prices and the
Speaker 1: price of burger meat going up sky high. Yeah. So,
Speaker 1: as far as Democrats in November, no matter what she
Speaker 1: does on that front, it's not necessarily going to be
Speaker 1: a win, at least politically for Democrats. Again, just a
Speaker 1: fantastic piece written by Selea Mosen and team Janet Yellen
Speaker 1: is getting trapped in the blame game over inflation. Selea
Speaker 1: is senior Washington correspondent for Bloomberg News. Be sure to
Speaker 1: check out this story. It's featured in the current issue
Speaker 1: of Business Week magazine. It's available on newsstands, on the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg term Mental and at Bloomberg dot com slash business Week.
Speaker 1: Our thanks also to Joe Weber. He is the editor
Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Business Week. You heard him live here from
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studios. This is Bloomberg Business Week
Speaker 1: with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. In an interview earlier today with Bloomberg News
Speaker 1: Editor in chief John mcclethwaite at the Quitar Economic Forum,
Speaker 1: Tesla's Elon Musk struck a sober tone as he forecast
Speaker 1: a probable recession in the US and left doubts about
Speaker 1: his commitment to a forty four billion dollar takeover of Twitter.
Speaker 1: Here's an excerpt of that discussion. With respect to the
Speaker 1: Twitter transaction, There's a limit to what I can say
Speaker 1: publicly given that is um somewhat of a sensitive matter. Um.
Speaker 1: So I would like to be measured in my responses here, um,
Speaker 1: such as not to generate incremental lawsuits. Um mhm un.
Speaker 1: That seems to be a risk. You sometimes managed to overcome, Yes,
Speaker 1: deposition minimization is I think important? Have you have, have
Speaker 1: Twitter given you enough information? Well, there are still, um
Speaker 1: a few unresolved matters. You've You've probably read about the
Speaker 1: question as to whether the number of fake and spam
Speaker 1: users on the system is less than five percent as
Speaker 1: Twitter claims, which I think is probably not most people's
Speaker 1: experience on we're using Twitter. Um So we're still awaiting
Speaker 1: resolution on that matter. Um. And that that is a
Speaker 1: very significant matter. Um So we're awaiting resolution on that.
Speaker 1: And then of course there is the question of will
Speaker 1: the dead portion of the round come together? And then
Speaker 1: will the share holders mode in favor? So I think
Speaker 1: those are the three things that um standard the you know,
Speaker 1: that needs to be resolved before the transaction can complete.
Speaker 1: What about the general state of the economy? Does that
Speaker 1: weigh on you when you think about this? I mean
Speaker 1: you just described it. You have a super bad feeling
Speaker 1: about the economy. Are you still in that position? I
Speaker 1: just said you earlier. Joe Biden has just come out
Speaker 1: and said that a recession in America is not inevitable.
Speaker 1: How do you feel about the economy. Well, I think
Speaker 1: a recession is inevitable at some point. As to whether
Speaker 1: there is a reception in the near term. Um, I
Speaker 1: think that is more likely than not. Certainly, isn't. It's
Speaker 1: not a certainty, but it appears more likelier than that.
Speaker 1: What do you think? I'm I'm I'm with you. I
Speaker 1: agree with you. I think it's more likely. Can I
Speaker 1: ask you one a particular thing to do with the
Speaker 1: Twitter bid, which is you know you are one of
Speaker 1: the biggest and fastest growing investors in China Tesla. You've
Speaker 1: talked about it being a third of your sales going forward.
Speaker 1: You're not buying Twitter the kind of public forum for
Speaker 1: free speech. The Chinese historically don't tend to be very
Speaker 1: enthusiastic about free speech. Are you worried about whether you
Speaker 1: can keep those two particular horses running? Is buying Twitter
Speaker 1: going to get you in trouble with the Chinese? Well?
Speaker 1: Twitter does not operate in China, so um. And I
Speaker 1: think China does not attempt to interview interfere with the
Speaker 1: free speech of the of the press in the US.
Speaker 1: As far as I know, Accession, you're not under pressure
Speaker 1: to Elbert to uh from China. So I think there's UM.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's gonna really you And in terms
Speaker 1: generally of that issue of freedom, of speech and Twitter.
Speaker 1: You've talked about Twitter being making it even freer and
Speaker 1: letting more people onto it. Um, is there a limit
Speaker 1: at all to to who you think should be allowed
Speaker 1: on to Twitter? Well, my aspiration for Twitter, or in
Speaker 1: general for the digital town square would be that it
Speaker 1: is as inclusive in the broader sense of the word
Speaker 1: as possible. UM that it is, it is appealing a
Speaker 1: system to use. UM. So I mean I do I'd
Speaker 1: like to get like of h that's in North America
Speaker 1: and perhaps I don't know half the world or something
Speaker 1: ultimately on on Twitter in one form or another, and
Speaker 1: that needs That means it must be something that is
Speaker 1: appealing to people. It obviously can out to be a
Speaker 1: place where they feel uncomfortable or harassed, m or there
Speaker 1: will something not use it. That was Testlas CEO Elon
Speaker 1: Musk speaking to Bloomberg News Editor in chief John mickel
Speaker 1: Thwaite at the Quitar Economic Forum. You can check out
Speaker 1: more of that interview at Bloomberg dot com. It's sim
Speaker 1: Stentific and Katie Greifeld were live in the Bloomberg Interactive
Speaker 1: Broker Studio in New York. Katie, there's a lot to
Speaker 1: pick apart here in that interview and a lot of takeaways,
Speaker 1: but perhaps what's most interesting to me is Elon Musk's
Speaker 1: view on the economy. He's got a really he's got
Speaker 1: an interesting perch, given that he's the CEO of this
Speaker 1: multinational car company that has factories in China, in Berlin,
Speaker 1: and in the United States, a unique perch, A super
Speaker 1: bad feeling. He did say that those were his words,
Speaker 1: super bad feeling, super bad feeling. He did say he
Speaker 1: thinks that a recession in the US is inevitable. Also
Speaker 1: interesting to hear him talk a little bit about the
Speaker 1: Twitter deal. He said there's a few unresolved matters. He's
Speaker 1: still waiting for a resolution on that question about bots.
Speaker 1: Interesting though Twitter shares high're about it by about three
Speaker 1: point two percent right now. Tim he did say at
Speaker 1: China is not a deal, not a problem for the company,
Speaker 1: which I thought was interesting. And we should note that
Speaker 1: he was able to do something that no other car
Speaker 1: company has been able to do in China by building
Speaker 1: that wholly owned Tesla factory. If you remember, you know,
Speaker 1: every other car company historically has had to do joint
Speaker 1: ventures with homegrown Chinese company. Musk was able to retain
Speaker 1: control of that Tesla factory again. Check more of that
Speaker 1: out online at Bloomberg dot com. You're listening to Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Business Week, and this is Bloomberg Radio broc Journal. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no, honey, please,
Speaker 1: I'll do the driving revels. I want to drive the question.
Speaker 1: This is the drive to the clothes down on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: All right, listen, ten minut it's to go here. We
Speaker 1: are seeing a rally on the SMP five hundred and
Speaker 1: the nazac Amadoo of course as well, two point seven
Speaker 1: percent to the upside on the SMP the nastac hire
Speaker 1: by two point eight percent. Eager to get into this
Speaker 1: with our next guest, Jeff Crumpelman, to travel all the
Speaker 1: way from Cincinnati. He's with us in the Bloomberg Interactive
Speaker 1: Brokers studios. He's the chief investment strategist and head of
Speaker 1: equities at Mariner Wealth Advisers. Jeff, good to have you
Speaker 1: with us. How are you this afternoon? It's great, It's
Speaker 1: it's great to be back in New York. I haven't
Speaker 1: been here for a couple of years, so you know,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go to a Broadway play tonight. Nice, and
Speaker 1: it's nice to be back. I'll be here on a
Speaker 1: green day too, hopefully than for arranging it. Okay, yeah,
Speaker 1: well hopefully you're you're back with us in person more
Speaker 1: because it's really good to have you with us in
Speaker 1: the studio. Jeff, you say it's good to be here
Speaker 1: on a green day, so a big side of relief?
Speaker 1: Is the worst behind us? Well, I I yeah, I
Speaker 1: think the operative part of that phrase was the war
Speaker 1: is the worst behind us. We do think that there
Speaker 1: could be more downside. There's there's things that's unsettling as
Speaker 1: we go through all these transitions that we all know
Speaker 1: about FED policy, pandemic to endemic as examples. Politically, we've
Speaker 1: got an election coming up. There's gonna be transition there,
Speaker 1: so on and so forth. The economy is going to
Speaker 1: a slower phase, not a recession, we don't think, but
Speaker 1: a slower phase. And uh so, yeah, it's it's nice
Speaker 1: to see a little bit of green, but I do
Speaker 1: think we've got uh some downside from here. I think
Speaker 1: there's way more upside downside, Yeah, far more upside. Why
Speaker 1: do you say that? Because still on average the SMP
Speaker 1: five hundred from a price earnings perspective is still above
Speaker 1: the historical average of of of where it typically has been,
Speaker 1: so so by that measure, it's still expensive. The ever
Speaker 1: stock is down. Ps have actually come down going into
Speaker 1: today to about fifteen, which is just about average. And
Speaker 1: if you look at interest rate environments like we have today,
Speaker 1: it's actually blow average. It's attractive. And if you look
Speaker 1: at the equity risk premium, the earning shield that you
Speaker 1: get because earnings are still strong, it's still above average.
Speaker 1: So that makes the market kind of attractively priced. And
Speaker 1: we are at three point six percent unemployment right now.
Speaker 1: It is very rare to see scorched earth, you know,
Speaker 1: results in the economy and trend when you're at three
Speaker 1: point six percent unemployment, so you know, one of the things,
Speaker 1: um not to belabor this, but uh, a lot of
Speaker 1: peers are talking about an average parer market might be down. Well,
Speaker 1: that's true if you include depression periods like twenty nine
Speaker 1: and thirty seven, seventy three when you had oil embargoes
Speaker 1: going on, and then you look at O one and
Speaker 1: oh seven, I mean, those were those were really awful
Speaker 1: times where you're worried in some cases of breadlines. Right
Speaker 1: if we have a recession, it should be a very
Speaker 1: mild recession. I'm not really concerned about recession. It's really
Speaker 1: a question of where will rates peak, and we think
Speaker 1: they'll stabilize. The economy is already slowing. We think they'll
Speaker 1: stabilize at a reasonable level, not as high as people fear.
Speaker 1: And boy, with earning strong, it should be good. And
Speaker 1: you brought up where I want to go. The concept
Speaker 1: of the earnings yield on the spire still a healthy place.
Speaker 1: But you look at the ten year treasury, I see
Speaker 1: three point three percent. If you look at the average
Speaker 1: yield on investment grade corporate bonds about four and a
Speaker 1: half percent. At what point does fixed income become more
Speaker 1: attractive than equities? Well, you know, I think that part
Speaker 1: of the reason why we aren't saying buy on the
Speaker 1: dips is because people are not rushing into bonds. Every
Speaker 1: time we've had fear in the past, they rushed in
Speaker 1: the bonds and that's brought interest rates down. And then
Speaker 1: you go, wow, look at that dividend yield. Really, so
Speaker 1: that's not happening right now, which I think is part
Speaker 1: of the reason why we say don't buy on the
Speaker 1: dip yet, hold your ground, hold your ground, don't bind
Speaker 1: the dip. I do think that bonds in the shorter
Speaker 1: period two to five years are attractive. At this point,
Speaker 1: they're over three percent, and if you buy individual bonds
Speaker 1: and you can make three percent um, you have very
Speaker 1: little downside, very little interest rate risk, because you just
Speaker 1: you know, holding the mature and then you can roll
Speaker 1: it over. So it sounds simple to keep its simple strategy.
Speaker 1: But I do think finally bonds at that level, I
Speaker 1: wouldn't go out ten years because the old curve is
Speaker 1: so flat at that point after you get through the
Speaker 1: five year. But yeah, and to your point that we
Speaker 1: haven't seen that rush into bonds, I mean, what do
Speaker 1: you think is sort of stopping that's not just inflation
Speaker 1: fears that that'll just erode your your any games you
Speaker 1: could get. Or is it just that yields haven't been
Speaker 1: high enough to really compete and be attracted with some
Speaker 1: of the other asset classes. Well, the head what's catching
Speaker 1: the headlines. It's inflation, It's the FED rate hikes, and
Speaker 1: so people are afraid, afraid that those rates are going
Speaker 1: to continue go high. And if I buy, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: lose money. And I have significant downside. That's true if
Speaker 1: you own funds um and if you own longer dated bonds,
Speaker 1: but it's not if you are buying short and certainly
Speaker 1: in individual bonds. Hey, Jeff, I want to get to
Speaker 1: some of your stock picks, because you've got great names
Speaker 1: on here. I gotta start with tests that We had
Speaker 1: any exclusive interview with Elon Musk over at the Guitar
Speaker 1: Economic for empowered by Bloombar Art in chief John Nicholkway
Speaker 1: conducting that, and a lot of Musk's commentary focused on
Speaker 1: the state of the economy, what he's doing with Twitter.
Speaker 1: But let's talk Tesla because that's the company that provides
Speaker 1: the source of most of his wealth at this point,
Speaker 1: and the stock has been on a rough ride over
Speaker 1: the last few months. Why are you so bullish on it?
Speaker 1: You know, it's interesting because Tesla for the longest time
Speaker 1: kind of it was maybe analogous to Amazon, you know,
Speaker 1: twenty years ago, and you know, you had, um, you know,
Speaker 1: this this growth and uh it looked like a nice
Speaker 1: path to increasing production. But there's no earnings and it
Speaker 1: was just you know, choking on the need for cash. Right.
Speaker 1: The balance sheet was horrible and they just had to
Speaker 1: keep raising funds. That's all changed. It's profitable. It's the
Speaker 1: most profitable auto company in the United States of electric
Speaker 1: vehicle sales market share. And in addition to being an
Speaker 1: auto company. And if you think, you know e V
Speaker 1: isn't gonna work, maybe you don't own Tesla, but clearly
Speaker 1: that's where we're headed. You've got charging stations, you have
Speaker 1: solar um you know, you have so much more than
Speaker 1: just an auto company, the advanced driving systems that they manufacture. UM. So, uh,
Speaker 1: you know you've you've got UM a PE that's about
Speaker 1: forty five times, but you've got thirty five growth and
Speaker 1: a long runway with a great product. So we just
Speaker 1: think that, uh, at twelve hundred, maybe it's not comfortable.
Speaker 1: At six hundred, it's it's it's off, you know, in
Speaker 1: the in the seven hundreds, now, I guess, um, that's
Speaker 1: where we find it very attractive. That's performing in the
Speaker 1: SP five on a points basis. Today. There you go, there,
Speaker 1: you go, a nice size and scope. There. We don't
Speaker 1: have much time left. I'm curious here some of your
Speaker 1: other high conviction calls, Navidia jumps to mind seconds question.
Speaker 1: So in videos, similarly, it's off, you know, and they
Speaker 1: make chips for artificial intelligence, the data center and the
Speaker 1: loud and that is not going away. It is you know,
Speaker 1: leading edge. And the chips that they make certainly for
Speaker 1: the gamers, and the chip that is out there can
Speaker 1: be used for new uses like artificial intelligence and radiology.
Speaker 1: So we think it's is the best positioned UH semi
Speaker 1: conductor company in the world. Jeff Grumpelman and chief investment
Speaker 1: strategist and head of Equities at Mariner Wealth Advisors with
Speaker 1: us live any Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio, usually in Cincinnati.
Speaker 1: Jeff really appreciate you taking the time and joining us
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Business Week. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.
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