1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:13,040 Speaker 1: Ye, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: Jai Ley. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Now. 5 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:30,920 Speaker 1: We center on Iran as well, and we do that 6 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:35,720 Speaker 1: with Daniel tan Obauma p WC, who is outstanding on 7 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 1: what nobody wants to talk about, including on might point 8 00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 1: out the President, which is actually, how do you do sanctions? 9 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 1: Let's start with first principles, what do you actually do 10 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: on sanctions? Like Mr manut Sin comes up with a 11 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 1: twenty page document, how's it work? I think you've got 12 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 1: to separate what the rhetoric out of the administration is 13 00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 1: versus the reality. What's the reality of the reality. In 14 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:01,560 Speaker 1: some instances of the sanctions that have come out, they 15 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:05,120 Speaker 1: have been focused and targeted on certain industries and sectors 16 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:07,600 Speaker 1: and really sought to achieve an objective, which is to 17 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:11,279 Speaker 1: force a change in behavior, to seize assets of bad people. 18 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 1: At times we get that conflated with creating very lengthy 19 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:18,520 Speaker 1: lists of people who don't really have assets in the 20 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 1: US who don't travel to the US and thus it 21 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:24,840 Speaker 1: gives the appearance of doing something without doing something. But 22 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 1: is it a document out of Treasury? Is it a 23 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 1: document out of a congressman that runs a committee. So 24 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:34,759 Speaker 1: it's typically the policy element of sanctions is driven out 25 00:01:34,800 --> 00:01:37,919 Speaker 1: of the administration through State and the White House, State 26 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:41,880 Speaker 1: through the State Department, but the real nuts and bolts, 27 00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:46,560 Speaker 1: the execution, the operationalization of sanctions comes through Treasury. You're 28 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 1: actually seeing a bit of a power struggle play out 29 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:52,160 Speaker 1: in public because a number of things are talked about 30 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:55,440 Speaker 1: now by the State Department around enforcement and criminal prosecution. 31 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:58,600 Speaker 1: None of these things that agency has any remit over. 32 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:03,640 Speaker 1: Actually who does the Treasury Department the Justice Department over enforcement? 33 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 1: So the question I have just more confusive. We started 34 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:10,240 Speaker 1: speaking to Mr. Well, I'm gonna go real simple here. 35 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:13,280 Speaker 1: Let's start just with a ran. My understanding was we 36 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:15,960 Speaker 1: had already the US government had already put sanctions on 37 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:20,160 Speaker 1: pretty much everything that mattered. What's what's left? I guess 38 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 1: there's there's not a lot left. Um, Now, what could 39 00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:25,639 Speaker 1: be left and what could be significant if we get 40 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 1: to the major announcement is there's a concept called secondary 41 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:33,239 Speaker 1: sanctions and secondary sanctions forced a choice to foreign companies 42 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 1: to choose between doing business with the US and doing 43 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 1: business with Iran, but not both. Those powers were put 44 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 1: in place in the Obama administration, used twice, but essentially, 45 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 1: you can pick a country in any country, a company 46 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 1: in any country in the world, and banned them from 47 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:51,080 Speaker 1: doing business in the US if you believe, if the 48 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:55,080 Speaker 1: US believes that they've been training with Iran the Obama 49 00:02:55,160 --> 00:03:02,200 Speaker 1: administration after they were too smaller entities in Asia, banking 50 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 1: entities that were found to be trading with Iran, supporting 51 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:10,880 Speaker 1: Iran's refinance of Germany, or that is the thing. They're 52 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:13,919 Speaker 1: not going after any significant entities. And even earlier in 53 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:16,440 Speaker 1: the Trump administration, there was a small Chinese bank on 54 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:19,480 Speaker 1: the border with North Korea that was designated under a 55 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:23,240 Speaker 1: different type of authority. Very small bank, but the administration 56 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 1: took a victory lap for being tough on Chinese banks, 57 00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:27,840 Speaker 1: even though no one had really heard of the bank 58 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:30,400 Speaker 1: that they designated in the first place. So, Daniel, as 59 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:32,959 Speaker 1: you go about your business talking to boards and C 60 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 1: suite executives, what are what are executives doing in a 61 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 1: context of our sanctions on are they are they not 62 00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:42,720 Speaker 1: not on is it Iran or is it China. It's 63 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:45,200 Speaker 1: more agnostic than that. It's looking at all of the 64 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 1: different areas where sanctions have been imposed. Where are we exposed. 65 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:53,400 Speaker 1: If your customers customers do business with some of these 66 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:56,960 Speaker 1: countries or companies in Iran or or in targeted areas, 67 00:03:57,320 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 1: you can be held liable. So it's really trying to 68 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:03,440 Speaker 1: assess are we exposed anywhere in our company, because we 69 00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 1: could be a massive global company not directly do business 70 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:09,960 Speaker 1: with Iran, but indirectly through some of our customers, we 71 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:13,200 Speaker 1: can end up being caught to facilitate trade with Iran, 72 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:14,960 Speaker 1: which could put us in the penalty box with the 73 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:17,360 Speaker 1: U S. And then how do the other countries react 74 00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:20,359 Speaker 1: to the United Kingdom with all their distractions, Germany with 75 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 1: their distractions, and particularly France with a heritage to Persia. 76 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 1: We're very unpopular on this right now. I mean the 77 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:30,440 Speaker 1: Iran Do they just say no, We're not gonna do it, 78 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:33,440 Speaker 1: or that's a bit of the problem. The Iran deal 79 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:36,120 Speaker 1: that was put in place in the Obama administration was 80 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:38,599 Speaker 1: the permanent five members of the UN Security Council that 81 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:42,440 Speaker 1: came together to form that deal with Iran. You now 82 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:45,280 Speaker 1: are seeing a unilateral approach to Iran and the way 83 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 1: the US is acting, And actually there is an EU 84 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 1: lead mechanism called INSTINCTS that was designed to provide financing 85 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:57,840 Speaker 1: for Iran related trade, permissible Iran related trade stuff, it's 86 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 1: all humanitarian. The State Apartment over the last few weeks 87 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 1: has began threatening that SPV with sanctions because it could 88 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 1: be used to circumvent um u S sanctions, which really 89 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 1: isn't the point. So there is a bit of a 90 00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 1: struggle right now to try and suss out any activity 91 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:20,840 Speaker 1: with Iran. The Europeans have been light in challenging the 92 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:23,800 Speaker 1: US on this. I think the one wild card to 93 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 1: me with this being g twenty week is China. China 94 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 1: still is trading significantly with Iran, and reports came out 95 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 1: yesterday that their trading volumes have only gone down about 96 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:36,040 Speaker 1: a hundred million dollars in the month of May to 97 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:39,359 Speaker 1: about nine hundred million dollars in trade with Iran. To 98 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 1: be clear, if we do new sanctions or enforce the 99 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 1: present sanctions, are they the kind of materials and goods 100 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 1: where China or another country just makeup they doll one 101 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:54,800 Speaker 1: eight hundred Tehran and say let's fix us now. Well, 102 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 1: so China and Iran are still trading, that's still happening. 103 00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:01,800 Speaker 1: The US knows this. But is the US willing to 104 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:06,000 Speaker 1: risk another dispute with China because of their support of Iran? 105 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:09,560 Speaker 1: I don't think that's really the case. They may pick 106 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 1: a softer target within China to take credit for being 107 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 1: hard on China. But I think right now that the 108 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 1: question of these major sanctions that were talked about on Friday, 109 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:21,600 Speaker 1: or that said they were released on Friday, that yesterday, 110 00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:24,800 Speaker 1: Now they're coming on Monday. It really is hard to 111 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:26,760 Speaker 1: tell what's major. But they're going to make a much 112 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:29,000 Speaker 1: bigger deal, most likely out of whatever it is than 113 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:32,839 Speaker 1: in reality. How effective had the sanctions been on Iran? 114 00:06:32,960 --> 00:06:35,039 Speaker 1: How tough has it been in so look, Iran is 115 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:38,280 Speaker 1: used to being isolated, They're very good at being isolated. 116 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:42,000 Speaker 1: For the last forty or so years, they've been isolated 117 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:45,840 Speaker 1: from most of the Western economies. How much of an 118 00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:48,680 Speaker 1: impact hasn't made. There's clearly been an attempt by the 119 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 1: Trump administration to force the hardliners back in power from 120 00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:55,760 Speaker 1: the moderates to justify the creation of a more legitimate 121 00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:58,880 Speaker 1: enemy worthy of some of the rhetoric we've seen over 122 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:02,120 Speaker 1: the last few days visa v cocked and loaded. So 123 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 1: the sanctions really, if you're trying to bring some of 124 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:08,919 Speaker 1: the negotiating table and you're pulling out of a deal 125 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:11,760 Speaker 1: that a number of parties negotiated and that no one 126 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 1: has violated, how do you trust any Have you ever 127 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:18,400 Speaker 1: used in all your work is as a public employee 128 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:21,760 Speaker 1: of the United States of America, your different efforts travel 129 00:07:21,840 --> 00:07:25,880 Speaker 1: lux now with p WC. Price Waterhouse Coopers, did you 130 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 1: ever use the fraight locked and loaded, cocked and loaded, 131 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 1: or cockton loaded. No, I have not used used. I've 132 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 1: used other colorful rhetoric in the government, but not quite 133 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:41,440 Speaker 1: that Flower, Jim. I'm thank you so much always locked 134 00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 1: and loaded for a great discussion. Tom. We often talk 135 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 1: about geopod politics and how and the impact on the market, 136 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:03,680 Speaker 1: and that's certainly a big issue. This is going to 137 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 1: be a big issue this week as the G twenty 138 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 1: meets later this week. It's always a big issue for 139 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 1: economics and the markets, but now with the trade tensions 140 00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:15,880 Speaker 1: between China and the US, even more so. Uh, We're 141 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:18,240 Speaker 1: very fortunate to have our next guest to help us 142 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 1: kind of pass through this very lovely is that Peterson 143 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 1: Institute Senior fellow, UH Syracuse University professor as well. She 144 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 1: joins us on the phone from Syracuse. Mary, thanks so 145 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:29,559 Speaker 1: much for joining us. We do have the G twenty 146 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:33,319 Speaker 1: later this week. It appears at Presidents Trump and g 147 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 1: will meet on the sidelines. Should we is the best 148 00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:41,200 Speaker 1: if we just keep our expectations low here? Yea good morning. 149 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:43,600 Speaker 1: We're gonna have a lot of spectacutor sports this week, 150 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 1: aren't we. Um, Well, it's pretty hard to do. I 151 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:50,760 Speaker 1: think all of us are ready for an end to this, 152 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:54,079 Speaker 1: just to move on to more productive types of engagement 153 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:56,480 Speaker 1: between the two countries. So I think it's pretty hard 154 00:08:56,520 --> 00:08:59,199 Speaker 1: to have our keep our expectations in check this week. 155 00:08:59,880 --> 00:09:03,440 Speaker 1: So what do you think China wants here? I mean, 156 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:06,080 Speaker 1: they're gonna have an opportunity here to maybe move this 157 00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:09,360 Speaker 1: discussion for what do you think China really wants at 158 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:13,559 Speaker 1: this stage? Well, China has all along wanted to seek 159 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:17,440 Speaker 1: some kind of negotiated in to this, UH and they 160 00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:24,280 Speaker 1: also need to uh keep their head high. That is, 161 00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 1: they can't be seen as cow tewing to President Trump. 162 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:31,040 Speaker 1: So that's become more and more difficult as the threats 163 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 1: of ratched ratcheted up. Now with this meeting here between 164 00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 1: the two leaders, there is a possibility that something can 165 00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 1: be done. We saw a hope of progress each time 166 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:46,079 Speaker 1: they've met, of course, uh, unfortunately that hasn't led to 167 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:50,560 Speaker 1: anything except escalating tariffs. So, UM, we're gonna hope for 168 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:54,040 Speaker 1: the best this week and UM hope that the magic 169 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:57,240 Speaker 1: of the two men meeting can bring us a little 170 00:09:57,280 --> 00:10:00,880 Speaker 1: further along on this. Otherwise we're looking at some pretty 171 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 1: that's pretty tough ride moving forward. How do you extrapolate forward? 172 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:10,320 Speaker 1: And this is my lead question for Dr Navarro, Professor 173 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:16,439 Speaker 1: Lovely here in forty minutes, Iran, we blinked, Ice, we blinked. 174 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 1: If I say to you, the president will blink with 175 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 1: G twenty, what does that actually mean? Do we know 176 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 1: what blink means? Okay, I would add Mexico, we blink. 177 00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:34,079 Speaker 1: Excuse me, I'm sorry, she's like efforting me forward to Navarro. Mexico. 178 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:38,400 Speaker 1: We blinked. So what what does blink mean that the 179 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:42,720 Speaker 1: G twenty? Mary, Well, you know, he could easily go 180 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:46,000 Speaker 1: back to things that were on the table months ago 181 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:49,800 Speaker 1: before there was so much uncertainty and angst driven to 182 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 1: you know, American businessmen and women's hearts. Through this, he 183 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 1: could go back to a package where we have significant 184 00:10:57,440 --> 00:11:00,679 Speaker 1: purchases by the Chinese, you know me, not even more 185 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:02,400 Speaker 1: than we would have end up with us, certainly more 186 00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:05,839 Speaker 1: than we have now. Um, he can look at some 187 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 1: sort of shallow reforms, which I think is probably what's 188 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:14,400 Speaker 1: due given the length of these negotiations, which you know, 189 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:17,560 Speaker 1: by the standard of international trade agreements, have not been 190 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:21,480 Speaker 1: very long. Uh, And he could perhaps look back at 191 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:24,400 Speaker 1: some other types of reforms that she was willing to make. 192 00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:26,199 Speaker 1: But I think most of these things would have been 193 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 1: on the table in the past, so I think that 194 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 1: would be uh, in some sense viewed as a blink 195 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:34,680 Speaker 1: by many folks. In fact, I think part of President 196 00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 1: Trump's problem is that it's hard for him to get 197 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:40,120 Speaker 1: a win here. Now. If he does reach an agreement, 198 00:11:40,240 --> 00:11:42,959 Speaker 1: people will claim as a blink, and if he doesn't, 199 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:46,040 Speaker 1: we're going to see the impact on American businesses and 200 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 1: American consumers. So it's it's a little it's a very 201 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:53,880 Speaker 1: fraught week firm I think, does the Hong Kong protests 202 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 1: and all the dynamics of the past fourteen days does 203 00:11:57,320 --> 00:12:05,720 Speaker 1: that affect Mr She's options? Well, it certainly makes um 204 00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 1: it's harder for him in some ways. Also because you know, 205 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:13,320 Speaker 1: we see that there is at least within Hong Kong 206 00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:20,480 Speaker 1: very deep well uh of resentment almost of the increasing 207 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:27,120 Speaker 1: authoritarianism in the mainland, and if the economy slows even more, 208 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:29,959 Speaker 1: it's going to make it much more difficult for She 209 00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:34,640 Speaker 1: moving forward, not justin on the political sphere, but also 210 00:12:34,679 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 1: on the economic sphere, because people's you know, sense of 211 00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 1: well being, their morale as an important measure of how 212 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:45,880 Speaker 1: the economy will do. So, Mary, as President Trump sits 213 00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:49,000 Speaker 1: down with President She, what do you think President Trump 214 00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 1: will view as a win or as a successful Friday 215 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:58,560 Speaker 1: Saturday coming up? Wow? Well, I've learned never never wise 216 00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:04,560 Speaker 1: to predict what what President Trump thinks. However, clearly, well, 217 00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:07,800 Speaker 1: you know, I would say from an ordinary sense, we 218 00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:11,920 Speaker 1: would expect a win to be something that results in uh, 219 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:16,720 Speaker 1: you know, greater purchases for US agricultural exporters, uh, greater 220 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:20,840 Speaker 1: freedom for our American service providers, particularly business service providers 221 00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:27,520 Speaker 1: in China UM and perhaps liberalization on some tariffs, certainly 222 00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:31,800 Speaker 1: some liberalization in terms of FDI caps or ownership caps, 223 00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 1: but you know that's sort of normal. We're looking at 224 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:38,280 Speaker 1: politics here, so he may be looking for some gigantic 225 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:41,320 Speaker 1: uh sign that he has one, that he has somehow 226 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:44,160 Speaker 1: brought the Chinese to the table in a way that 227 00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:46,719 Speaker 1: no one else could. And I think that's where the 228 00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:49,160 Speaker 1: danger lies, because that's what the Chinese are not going 229 00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:52,360 Speaker 1: to want to give him. Very lovely, thank you so much, 230 00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:57,480 Speaker 1: greatly appreciate it. With the person of course, with Syracuse University, 231 00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 1: the Interview of the Day, Paul Swone and Tom Keane, 232 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:16,520 Speaker 1: with his Peter Kent Navarro, Amertus Professor, University of California 233 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 1: at Irvine, and certainly within the White House, the President's 234 00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:26,200 Speaker 1: chief guider on our discussion with China, our discussion on 235 00:14:26,280 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 1: trade and manufacturing policy. Professor Navarro, you have been a 236 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:32,960 Speaker 1: good friend of the show. We've always gone from many 237 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:36,040 Speaker 1: different opinions. I want to begin with a moment we're 238 00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:42,200 Speaker 1: in right now. After Iran and delay, after Mexico, and 239 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:46,600 Speaker 1: delay after Ice and delay over the weekend, why should 240 00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 1: my listeners worldwide think of anything except out of G 241 00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:57,200 Speaker 1: twenty further delay with China. Well that's a great set 242 00:14:57,280 --> 00:15:01,360 Speaker 1: up there. Um, Look, we're in the glide path. Now 243 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:06,680 Speaker 1: to Osaka, Well, who talks will resume UH, going into that, 244 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:10,280 Speaker 1: Let's see what happens. What the President has said was 245 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:13,120 Speaker 1: will either get a great and fair deal or we won't. 246 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:16,680 Speaker 1: I think what's important for your listeners to understand is 247 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 1: what we're fighting for and what we're fighting about. There's 248 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 1: basically seven problems structurally that we face with China. It's 249 00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:30,640 Speaker 1: the cyber intrusions into our business networks, forced technology transfers 250 00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:34,880 Speaker 1: a condition of market access, totally illegal under the w 251 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 1: t O. We lose a couple of hundred billion dollars 252 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:41,160 Speaker 1: a year alone in intellectual property seft. There's an ongoing 253 00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 1: problem with dumping a product, huge over capacity and stealing 254 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 1: aluminum in UH China growing over capacity, and auto's robotics UH. 255 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:57,120 Speaker 1: Number five, we've got the history of currency manipulation. Number six, 256 00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:01,760 Speaker 1: it's the state owned enterprises, which are basically the tip 257 00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:06,720 Speaker 1: of the Chinese mercantilis spirit. And then of course the issues. 258 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:10,120 Speaker 1: So these are discussions we're having Tom And as you know, 259 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:15,360 Speaker 1: we had a hundred and fifty page plus agreement UM 260 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 1: that we worked literally for over a year on and Okay, 261 00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 1: I want to go to the immediately, Professor Naval, you 262 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:26,680 Speaker 1: talk about a mercantilist China. Are we going after a 263 00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:33,680 Speaker 1: mercantilist China by becoming a mercantilist America? No, I think, Uh. 264 00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 1: I think what's important for your listeners to get the 265 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:42,040 Speaker 1: big picture on is this. We are in an international 266 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:48,560 Speaker 1: trading system where the United States faces significantly higher caariffs 267 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:51,920 Speaker 1: around the world under the World Trade Organization if you 268 00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:55,080 Speaker 1: know this, Tom, but under the most Favored Nation rules 269 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 1: of the World Trade Organization, is perfectly legitimate for country 270 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:04,119 Speaker 1: uh to charge the United States significantly higher tariffs and 271 00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:09,280 Speaker 1: on the products that we charged them, and it's it's endemic, uh. 272 00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:13,440 Speaker 1: And what that does, really, this unreciprocal trade, it creates 273 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:18,640 Speaker 1: a large trade deficit over half a billion what I think, 274 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:22,080 Speaker 1: it's like almost a year we're approaching. But my point 275 00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:25,200 Speaker 1: is this is like you you're asking me about mercantile 276 00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:29,040 Speaker 1: is and whatever. We we have the lowest terrorists, lowest 277 00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:32,760 Speaker 1: trade berries in the world, and as the President has said, 278 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:35,240 Speaker 1: we're being treated like a pe manage. Okay, I want 279 00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:38,360 Speaker 1: to Peter, I want to get to where we are 280 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:41,040 Speaker 1: right now. I don't need a rehash what we've done 281 00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:43,480 Speaker 1: for the last two years on TRIGG. You wrote about 282 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:46,520 Speaker 1: most Favored nation status in the Wall Street Journal a 283 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 1: number of months ago, summer of last year, your colleague 284 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:54,800 Speaker 1: Emritus Professor sarez Villa at Irvine wrote a scathing note 285 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:56,959 Speaker 1: and he really got to the heart of the matter, 286 00:17:57,440 --> 00:18:00,959 Speaker 1: which is the game theory of the moment. Professor suarez 287 00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:06,320 Speaker 1: Vila talked about a global trading system that can impose countermeasures. 288 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:11,240 Speaker 1: Is China imposing countermeasures on what they perceive as the 289 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:16,399 Speaker 1: trade war you and President Trump are beginning. Tom, I 290 00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 1: don't want to really speculate on what China does or 291 00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:23,920 Speaker 1: doesn't do. What we see as a chessboard here where 292 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:26,200 Speaker 1: a big thing that we need to do this summer 293 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:29,920 Speaker 1: is past the United States, Mexico, Canada agreement that that 294 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:34,640 Speaker 1: for US is high on the priority list because if 295 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,280 Speaker 1: we do that, we'll create half a million jobs, will 296 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:40,000 Speaker 1: get another point of g d P, will create seventy 297 00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:43,560 Speaker 1: five thousand jobs in the auto sector. And that's that's 298 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:47,199 Speaker 1: something that Congress can do within a matter. Can you 299 00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:50,480 Speaker 1: do that? By Lincoln? Okay? What we focus on, I mean, 300 00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:53,320 Speaker 1: I understand you want to talk Peter, is no okay, 301 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:56,399 Speaker 1: but Peter, to be fair to you, you are not 302 00:18:56,560 --> 00:19:01,200 Speaker 1: conflating trade policy with immigration. Polo. See, can we get 303 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:06,240 Speaker 1: a successful new NAFTA even as a president conflates that 304 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:12,960 Speaker 1: policy with the immigration. Absolutely. I think that the recent 305 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:19,040 Speaker 1: use of tariffs UH to get Mexico to significantly tightened 306 00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:22,600 Speaker 1: their border security has brought these these nations closer to 307 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 1: each other. We're working very well now with Mexico UH. 308 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:30,520 Speaker 1: And I think that that was an important thing. I 309 00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:34,720 Speaker 1: remember that the tariffs have many different uses. In that case, UH, 310 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:38,200 Speaker 1: they were used to address the national security crisis. And 311 00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:41,320 Speaker 1: when the President announced that, people went crazy, and then 312 00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:44,320 Speaker 1: two days later they hailed it as a great victory, 313 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:47,840 Speaker 1: and that's what it is. So UM I think. I 314 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:51,480 Speaker 1: think that from an investors point of view, the important 315 00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:55,680 Speaker 1: thing to see is that the US economy is rock solid. 316 00:19:56,680 --> 00:20:01,680 Speaker 1: All of financial indicators are pointing bullish, and the terror 317 00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:05,560 Speaker 1: of policies that we're using doctor working in different ways 318 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:12,120 Speaker 1: to help our economy and help restructure the international trade 319 00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:15,080 Speaker 1: environment in a way which is more fair and therefore 320 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:19,080 Speaker 1: more expansive. And but as it relates dr virus relates 321 00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:22,120 Speaker 1: to terrorists, what do you believe has been the impact 322 00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:28,520 Speaker 1: on US consumers and US businesses zero. And that's that's 323 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 1: shown in the data. And that's that's counterintuitive. I mean, 324 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:34,760 Speaker 1: there were a lot of people who were saying that 325 00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:38,080 Speaker 1: we were going to have tremendous price inflation from from 326 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 1: all of the terrorists we put in, whether it was 327 00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:42,879 Speaker 1: aluminum steel or whether it was China, we've seen zero. 328 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:46,159 Speaker 1: Now in the case of China, it's very clear what's happened. Uh. 329 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:48,879 Speaker 1: They devalued their currency to take the bite out of 330 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:52,479 Speaker 1: the terrors. They've lowered their prices. We've seen them bearing 331 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,919 Speaker 1: the burden of the tariffs to lower exports, lower profits. 332 00:20:56,200 --> 00:21:01,080 Speaker 1: The Chinese government itself, um is is burying that. But 333 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:05,200 Speaker 1: are those are those tariffs? Are those are paying nothing? 334 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:09,080 Speaker 1: There's no. You can't point to any inflation in this economy, 335 00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:11,880 Speaker 1: which is why the others. The other piece out there, 336 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:15,200 Speaker 1: tom as you know, UH, is the federal reserve. I mean, 337 00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:17,879 Speaker 1: a rate cut and passage of U S M c 338 00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:21,119 Speaker 1: A would get us easily over Well, the President just 339 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:23,359 Speaker 1: tweeted out that we would see four or five percent. 340 00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:26,240 Speaker 1: I believe he assumes real g d P. And I 341 00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:29,480 Speaker 1: can't find many people that would agree with that ductor 342 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:35,399 Speaker 1: navi of so critical moment here with is the bluster 343 00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:40,240 Speaker 1: and policy that we've been doing. And as someone mentioned 344 00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:43,000 Speaker 1: brilliantly over the weekend, maybe it's talked loud and carry 345 00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:47,040 Speaker 1: a small stick. What kind of stick does the president 346 00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:52,760 Speaker 1: take to the G twenty meeting, tom As I said 347 00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:54,720 Speaker 1: at the outset, we're on the glide path going in. 348 00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:57,840 Speaker 1: Let's just see what happens. I think that uh the 349 00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:00,560 Speaker 1: important thing here if you're an investor, just to see 350 00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:04,480 Speaker 1: the chessboard. You got a strong economy, uh, and that 351 00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:07,360 Speaker 1: will continue, and that's bullish for the markets. That's all 352 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:10,440 Speaker 1: that matters. We've had the tariffs in for over a year, 353 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:14,359 Speaker 1: tom and we've seen no negative impacts whatsoever on the 354 00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:19,760 Speaker 1: US economy. In fact, the Q one we actually we 355 00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:22,399 Speaker 1: came in a little over three percent growth rate, and 356 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:25,280 Speaker 1: the full point of that was due to our reduction 357 00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:28,480 Speaker 1: in the trade deficit, primarily because of the China tariffs. 358 00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:32,120 Speaker 1: So let's not let's not. I think if people want 359 00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:35,360 Speaker 1: to get excited about things right now, they should get 360 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:37,920 Speaker 1: excited about passing the U S m c A agreement, 361 00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:40,159 Speaker 1: because that's going to be the next leg up on 362 00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:43,240 Speaker 1: our growth. That should get excited about the idea that 363 00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:46,960 Speaker 1: the FED might lower interest rates as they should. Uh. 364 00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:50,000 Speaker 1: And and let's let's just see what happens with China. 365 00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:54,000 Speaker 1: We we won't what what would the administration consider a 366 00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:59,639 Speaker 1: successful G twenty meeting as it relates to China? Uh? 367 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:03,080 Speaker 1: And speculate on that. Let's just see what happens. Well, 368 00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:05,800 Speaker 1: this is the quiet period. Let's just go into Osaka. 369 00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:08,560 Speaker 1: Let's see what happens. I'm happy to talk about other things, 370 00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 1: but let's just let's just see what happens. Is multilateral dead, sir? 371 00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,000 Speaker 1: I mean, with all the books you've written, the anger 372 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:20,480 Speaker 1: over China over the years, is a multilateral America dead? 373 00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:27,359 Speaker 1: The US Mexico Canada Agreement is my multilateral. It's three countries, 374 00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:32,080 Speaker 1: um in I think the smartest, biggest trade deal in 375 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:37,360 Speaker 1: world history. And it's good for all three countries as 376 00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:42,159 Speaker 1: well as American farmers, ranchers, manufacturers, and workers. So in 377 00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:46,560 Speaker 1: that sense, multilateralism um isn't dead at all. And and 378 00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:52,160 Speaker 1: so no, um, if you have multilateral Transpacific partnership, which 379 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 1: is which would have torn apart of auto industry, that's dead. 380 00:23:56,840 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 1: But the U S m c A is hopefully it'll 381 00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:03,200 Speaker 1: be alive and well and and last for a long time. 382 00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:05,840 Speaker 1: Peter Navarro, thank you so much. She has Assistant to 383 00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:09,359 Speaker 1: the President, Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy at the 384 00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 1: White House. That we greatly appreciate his time. Last week 385 00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:29,200 Speaker 1: we were honored to speak with General McCrystal Admiral Strevidis, 386 00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,800 Speaker 1: and we continue that forward now with another admiral. He 387 00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:37,360 Speaker 1: has Admiral Sestak of Pennsylvania. But he's different than at Crystal. 388 00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:41,920 Speaker 1: He's different than Stravidas. He's decided to run for president. 389 00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:46,040 Speaker 1: He is, I believe, by count candidate uh for a 390 00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:50,159 Speaker 1: very crowded Democratic Party field. Admiral, we are thrilled to 391 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:53,199 Speaker 1: have you with us. As a former congressman, you know 392 00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:58,520 Speaker 1: the landscape. Well, why do the Democrats need a candidate 393 00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 1: to come up the process of defeating President Trump? Hey, 394 00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:08,719 Speaker 1: thanks for having me aboard. I honestly do believe what 395 00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:14,200 Speaker 1: America's most want is someone who is actually accountable to them, 396 00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:18,679 Speaker 1: to them, above self, above party, above any special interest. 397 00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:23,040 Speaker 1: That's what they most want. Look, they're looking for a 398 00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:26,000 Speaker 1: president and also believe or they need a president who 399 00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:30,120 Speaker 1: has a depth of global experience to restore America's leadership 400 00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:33,160 Speaker 1: in the world, and that's what protects our American dream 401 00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:36,040 Speaker 1: at home. And we're walking away from the world. We're 402 00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:38,800 Speaker 1: retreating from the world and telling her whosed allies left behind? 403 00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,520 Speaker 1: It's a rap. And finally, I think they really do 404 00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:44,720 Speaker 1: need someone who can be trusted as I was in 405 00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:48,800 Speaker 1: my two to one almost Republican district reelected without spending 406 00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:53,520 Speaker 1: a dime on a campaign. Who's that would be trusted 407 00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:56,199 Speaker 1: even when we disagree to restructing policies that are too 408 00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:59,240 Speaker 1: often inequable. That's what they want. I really want to 409 00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:01,359 Speaker 1: be there for account ability. Okay, we all know Connor 410 00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:04,840 Speaker 1: Lamb and what he did southwest of Pittsburgh as well. 411 00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:09,080 Speaker 1: How are you going to get liberals, progressive social Democrats, 412 00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:13,520 Speaker 1: democratic socialists to swing over to a moderate Scoop Jackson 413 00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:18,160 Speaker 1: Democrat like you? How does that work? Well, you know 414 00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:20,959 Speaker 1: you hit it on the head. I want to actually 415 00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:25,680 Speaker 1: represent all Americans, all Americans, and so when I someone 416 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,680 Speaker 1: when I was a congressman, disagreed with me on choice, 417 00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:31,959 Speaker 1: I invited them in despite the harsh letters that were 418 00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:35,520 Speaker 1: often written written on that issue. And you had to care, 419 00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:37,280 Speaker 1: you had being at eight o'clock in the morning on 420 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:40,240 Speaker 1: a Saturday, and sixty showed up to voice their opinion. 421 00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:44,560 Speaker 1: But you can't find me ever going back to them 422 00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:46,879 Speaker 1: in a harsh term, but listening and saying what my 423 00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:49,040 Speaker 1: opinion is. The next time, forty showed up. The next 424 00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:52,960 Speaker 1: time twenty the Key Party patriots asked after my tenth 425 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:55,240 Speaker 1: town Carol Town Hall to have a picture with me. 426 00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:56,640 Speaker 1: Why I'm going to do it is what a good 427 00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:59,320 Speaker 1: captain does on a ship. He goes down the mystics 428 00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:01,879 Speaker 1: and listens and hawks, but he states what he believes in. 429 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:03,920 Speaker 1: Am I going to do it by spending my time 430 00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:06,440 Speaker 1: living in Iowa? Sure? I am? Just like I walked 431 00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,080 Speaker 1: for one or twenty two miles across Pennsylvania. Yeah, I 432 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:13,320 Speaker 1: did that this week. I walked for in twenty two 433 00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:15,520 Speaker 1: miles this weekend. Let me bring in my colleague Paul 434 00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:19,840 Speaker 1: Sweeney please. And then I got a bridge for sale 435 00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:22,760 Speaker 1: in Arizona. Let me bring in my colleague Paul Sweeney 436 00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:27,400 Speaker 1: right now with presidential candidate. So add it's just a question, 437 00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:29,720 Speaker 1: first of all, just on timing here. It is a 438 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:34,760 Speaker 1: very crowded field, as we all know. Are you concerned 439 00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:37,240 Speaker 1: that you're coming in too late here? I mean even 440 00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:40,120 Speaker 1: the debates are are starting. So first it's just all 441 00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:43,960 Speaker 1: be too little, too late here, Uh, Paul, you play 442 00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:46,520 Speaker 1: with the cards you're dealt with. I had my daughter 443 00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:48,760 Speaker 1: I bring cancer for which is where I stopped being 444 00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:52,200 Speaker 1: an independent to take and took after she was recovered, 445 00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:56,639 Speaker 1: became a Democrat to run healthcare, which is I Similarly, 446 00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:59,199 Speaker 1: the cancer came back and over the last year we 447 00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:02,320 Speaker 1: dealt with it. And frankly I got dealt a good 448 00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:06,359 Speaker 1: set of cards because her health care doctors who saved 449 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:08,199 Speaker 1: her last time one came out of retirement to the 450 00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:11,359 Speaker 1: brain operation. We're now in a safe harbor, and so 451 00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:13,359 Speaker 1: it's a good desk step card. She's safe. And so 452 00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:15,480 Speaker 1: this is the only time I could get in. But 453 00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:18,359 Speaker 1: you know what, she gave me a sign that said 454 00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:22,160 Speaker 1: life is not about avoiding the storm. It's about learning 455 00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:24,000 Speaker 1: to dance in the rain. And so, yeah, it's a 456 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 1: little tougher right now, but you know the message I have, 457 00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,800 Speaker 1: having stood up at times to my own party, in 458 00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:32,359 Speaker 1: that walk across Pennsylvania where I was told to stop 459 00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:34,880 Speaker 1: walking just fundraies. But I told her the man who 460 00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:37,720 Speaker 1: called me the senator, about the Republican who called out 461 00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:40,440 Speaker 1: as I walked through a small town ad Maamma a Republican. 462 00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:43,080 Speaker 1: But I love what you're doing that I actually want 463 00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:45,640 Speaker 1: to go to the people. And actually I mean this 464 00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:48,040 Speaker 1: not that they have to know me, that I have 465 00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:49,840 Speaker 1: to show them I know them and what they need. 466 00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:52,120 Speaker 1: And so no, I think it's okay because of what 467 00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:54,440 Speaker 1: happened to my daughter that I'm very fortunate with deca 468 00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:57,640 Speaker 1: cards I'm dealt with with her. Right, Well, good news there, 469 00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:00,440 Speaker 1: Admiral Um. What I mean, obviously, what I the key 470 00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:03,640 Speaker 1: issues that has to be done initially by all candidates 471 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:08,400 Speaker 1: is to try to differentiate themselves. How do you do that? Well, 472 00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 1: I think I bring something just because I've been blessed 473 00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:14,720 Speaker 1: by this nation to invest in me. That's fairly unique. 474 00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,080 Speaker 1: You actually have a presidential Kennedy who has a breath 475 00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:20,880 Speaker 1: in depth of understanding of the world, who has come 476 00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:25,880 Speaker 1: to understand issues of our military that militaries can stop 477 00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:29,600 Speaker 1: a problem, but they can never fix a problem. And 478 00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:32,400 Speaker 1: so Democrats and Republicans alike voted for that reckless war 479 00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:36,440 Speaker 1: for example in Iraq. Never understood either the complexity of 480 00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,280 Speaker 1: the world nor did they understand the issue that I said, 481 00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:42,320 Speaker 1: And so we Unleashia gains Sonny soon he gets Shia. 482 00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:45,760 Speaker 1: And here's the issue. Very few understand that. And second, 483 00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:47,960 Speaker 1: no one has ever been going to be held accountable 484 00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:50,720 Speaker 1: for voting for that. More so, I bring accountability which 485 00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:54,240 Speaker 1: is unique, and I bring a breath of understanding why 486 00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:57,560 Speaker 1: our American dream is only protected by restoring leadership to 487 00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:01,600 Speaker 1: the world. The Democrat out of Pennsylvania, he is running 488 00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:05,000 Speaker 1: for president. He has a former admiral of the U. S. 489 00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:11,080 Speaker 1: Navy emial cystic. You commanded the Samuel B. Roberts to 490 00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:15,360 Speaker 1: all sorts of acclaim uh floating around the Atlantic. You 491 00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:19,160 Speaker 1: did that with a repaired Samuel B. Roberts, which I 492 00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,240 Speaker 1: believe was hit by a mine five or six years 493 00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:27,040 Speaker 1: before off of Iran. You know about what our navies 494 00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:32,239 Speaker 1: at risk in Iran right now. Stravitas was scathing in 495 00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:36,360 Speaker 1: his interview with US last week. Describe as a Navy 496 00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:41,560 Speaker 1: guy what the President did last week with the um 497 00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:48,080 Speaker 1: not hysterics, but the sequence of events on Iran. Well, 498 00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:51,240 Speaker 1: let me talk to that directly, with the beginning of 499 00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:55,840 Speaker 1: the wrong action in that sequence, breaking America's word on 500 00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:59,400 Speaker 1: the deal of the Nia Nuclear Accord. When Iran kept 501 00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:04,560 Speaker 1: theirs is unforgivable, and that's why we're here today. We'll 502 00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:08,800 Speaker 1: step back. Our navy can't even survive in the Persian 503 00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:12,400 Speaker 1: Golf we are. Sonar doesn't work, and there's nineteen many 504 00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:15,600 Speaker 1: submarines there. We operate in two areas there with the 505 00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:18,200 Speaker 1: Carriage Battle Group, go back and forth, back and forth 506 00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:20,520 Speaker 1: the launch plans. So if we have to strike, I 507 00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:22,680 Speaker 1: know I've been there. We will have to remove ourselves 508 00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:26,800 Speaker 1: from the Persian Golf and do strikes from Afar. And 509 00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,840 Speaker 1: this is not Iraq. It would take us weeks or 510 00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:32,680 Speaker 1: months if we ever have them get their nuclear infrastructure 511 00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:35,320 Speaker 1: back buried under three feet of rock to destroy it, 512 00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:37,800 Speaker 1: as they could rain missiles, hundreds of them down on 513 00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:41,880 Speaker 1: Israel and our regional basis. Remember what I said about Iraq. 514 00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:45,640 Speaker 1: Militaries can sup the problem. Militaries don't fix it. Our 515 00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,480 Speaker 1: diplomatic effort to rid them for a year as of 516 00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:52,840 Speaker 1: most at the minimum of a nuclear capability, gave America 517 00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:57,280 Speaker 1: security and safety. And what the administration did by walking 518 00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:01,880 Speaker 1: away and breaking our words, admiral of our security, how 519 00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:07,520 Speaker 1: much does this nation? Miss? General Madis at Pentagon? Add 520 00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:09,520 Speaker 1: General Maddis, who I worked for when I ran the 521 00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:14,600 Speaker 1: Navy's three fifty billion dollar warfare programs, that he was 522 00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:18,040 Speaker 1: the Marine equivalent. We were fortunate to have that man 523 00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:23,360 Speaker 1: that's accountable and his words of wisdom there where, he 524 00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:27,000 Speaker 1: also spoke about staying in Iranian accord sorely missed and 525 00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:29,320 Speaker 1: we should be great grateful for his service and if 526 00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:32,320 Speaker 1: I could, I'm sorry, Well, we're gonna run out of time. 527 00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:35,080 Speaker 1: Let's do this, Admiral Saystic. We look forward to speaking 528 00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:37,400 Speaker 1: to you in our New York studios or in Washington 529 00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:41,080 Speaker 1: as you may in the coming weeks. Joe Sastek is 530 00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:44,680 Speaker 1: from Pennsylvania. He has decided, as a former congressman today 531 00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:48,520 Speaker 1: to run for president of the United States. We greatly 532 00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:53,920 Speaker 1: appreciate his time. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. 533 00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:59,240 Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or 534 00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:03,360 Speaker 1: whichever of podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at 535 00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:07,680 Speaker 1: Tom Keene before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. 536 00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:09,200 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio.