1 00:00:15,356 --> 00:00:21,756 Speaker 1: Pushkin. What did it mean to go out on a 2 00:00:21,796 --> 00:00:26,516 Speaker 1: Saturday or Friday night in nineteen ninety three in New York. 3 00:00:29,156 --> 00:00:30,436 Speaker 2: It was kind of like a given. 4 00:00:30,716 --> 00:00:34,396 Speaker 3: You know, you wear a fanny pack and once you 5 00:00:34,436 --> 00:00:36,236 Speaker 3: are on the streets, you turn it around so it's 6 00:00:36,236 --> 00:00:36,756 Speaker 3: in front of. 7 00:00:36,716 --> 00:00:37,636 Speaker 2: You so you can see it. 8 00:00:37,716 --> 00:00:38,716 Speaker 1: Did you really do that? 9 00:00:39,236 --> 00:00:39,996 Speaker 4: Absolutely? 10 00:00:40,236 --> 00:00:40,396 Speaker 5: Well? 11 00:00:40,436 --> 00:00:43,516 Speaker 2: I actually I did interrupt, but I remember I just 12 00:00:43,596 --> 00:00:46,196 Speaker 2: had a flash of remember keys. We all had. 13 00:00:46,116 --> 00:00:50,356 Speaker 1: Keys, and I used to around with keys. 14 00:00:49,876 --> 00:00:52,356 Speaker 2: So that each one. What would I have actually done 15 00:00:52,396 --> 00:00:54,716 Speaker 2: if someone had attacked me? I would put my keys 16 00:00:54,756 --> 00:00:56,116 Speaker 2: between my fingers. 17 00:00:56,396 --> 00:01:00,316 Speaker 1: Yeah, so that someone atactly I was ready. Not long ago, 18 00:01:00,716 --> 00:01:02,676 Speaker 1: I called up two friends so I used to hang 19 00:01:02,716 --> 00:01:04,636 Speaker 1: out with when I first moved to New York City 20 00:01:04,916 --> 00:01:09,916 Speaker 1: in my twenties, Peggy and Erica. Back in the nineties, 21 00:01:10,156 --> 00:01:15,556 Speaker 1: we were all young and footloose and on edge. I 22 00:01:15,596 --> 00:01:19,276 Speaker 1: seem to remember that at the end of every evening 23 00:01:19,356 --> 00:01:22,356 Speaker 1: there was a discussion about everyone had to We all 24 00:01:22,396 --> 00:01:24,796 Speaker 1: had to talk about everyone's plan for getting home. Do 25 00:01:24,876 --> 00:01:27,756 Speaker 1: you remember this? And if you didn't, who did? And 26 00:01:27,836 --> 00:01:32,796 Speaker 1: didn't have money for a cab? Did anyone under what 27 00:01:32,836 --> 00:01:36,636 Speaker 1: circumstances would you take the subway on a Friday night after. 28 00:01:37,916 --> 00:01:39,876 Speaker 2: Dinner if you were in a large group. 29 00:01:39,996 --> 00:01:41,556 Speaker 1: Only if you're in a large group, a large group. 30 00:01:41,436 --> 00:01:43,956 Speaker 2: And it was like a little adventure. So six people 31 00:01:43,996 --> 00:01:45,956 Speaker 2: would all get on the subway late at night, and 32 00:01:46,116 --> 00:01:48,836 Speaker 2: you felt like you were being adventurous. 33 00:01:49,156 --> 00:01:52,436 Speaker 6: Yeah, thinking back on it, it felt very collegial. 34 00:01:52,516 --> 00:01:54,116 Speaker 4: We did things as a group. 35 00:01:54,476 --> 00:01:57,236 Speaker 7: Yeah, you were never left alone. 36 00:01:57,876 --> 00:01:59,836 Speaker 1: The New York City of that era was one of 37 00:01:59,836 --> 00:02:03,476 Speaker 1: the most dangerous big cities in America. The subway was filthy, 38 00:02:03,836 --> 00:02:07,396 Speaker 1: there was graffiti everywhere. There were two thousand, two hundred 39 00:02:07,396 --> 00:02:09,796 Speaker 1: and sixty two murders in New York and eighteen ninety 40 00:02:10,076 --> 00:02:13,556 Speaker 1: more than six a day. Were we personally at risk? 41 00:02:14,196 --> 00:02:16,556 Speaker 1: I don't know, but it felt like crime was all 42 00:02:16,596 --> 00:02:17,436 Speaker 1: around us. 43 00:02:18,316 --> 00:02:18,516 Speaker 3: You know. 44 00:02:18,916 --> 00:02:21,436 Speaker 4: Someone would always say, Hey, don't worry, I'm walking you home. 45 00:02:22,076 --> 00:02:23,516 Speaker 1: We were never allowed to walk along. 46 00:02:23,636 --> 00:02:26,636 Speaker 2: Yeah, even on it right, people would walk me home 47 00:02:26,836 --> 00:02:29,396 Speaker 2: just because you didn't want to be by yourself. 48 00:02:29,716 --> 00:02:32,276 Speaker 1: As a won when you went on on a date, 49 00:02:32,396 --> 00:02:35,476 Speaker 1: even if it was a disaster, you had to walk. 50 00:02:35,756 --> 00:02:38,356 Speaker 1: You had to walk the woman home, right, which is 51 00:02:38,396 --> 00:02:39,836 Speaker 1: like so insanely awkward. 52 00:02:39,876 --> 00:02:45,996 Speaker 7: You're like, we were, you know, independent women but once 53 00:02:46,116 --> 00:02:48,476 Speaker 7: the sun went down, you never walked alone. 54 00:02:50,756 --> 00:02:53,476 Speaker 1: Let's tell about how it gets better. I just remember 55 00:02:53,556 --> 00:02:56,756 Speaker 1: that all of a sudden, all of the precautions seemed 56 00:02:56,756 --> 00:02:59,876 Speaker 1: to go out the window right, and it's shoe. Statistically, 57 00:02:59,916 --> 00:03:03,036 Speaker 1: we know by ninety seven or ninety eight the murder 58 00:03:03,076 --> 00:03:06,316 Speaker 1: rate has dropped. I remember this. I had a bedroom 59 00:03:06,636 --> 00:03:09,836 Speaker 1: when I was living on that in that walk up 60 00:03:09,836 --> 00:03:14,996 Speaker 1: on Bank Street. My bedroom window overlooked the fire escape, 61 00:03:15,156 --> 00:03:17,796 Speaker 1: and I had previously been too scared to open my 62 00:03:17,836 --> 00:03:20,716 Speaker 1: window at night, And then I started to open my 63 00:03:20,756 --> 00:03:23,916 Speaker 1: window at night, so that technically someone could have walked 64 00:03:23,996 --> 00:03:26,436 Speaker 1: up down up to fire escape and walked in. But 65 00:03:26,516 --> 00:03:36,916 Speaker 1: I was like, it's fine, now I can sleep. My 66 00:03:36,996 --> 00:03:40,396 Speaker 1: name is Malcolm Gladwell. You're listening to Revisionist History, my 67 00:03:40,476 --> 00:03:44,316 Speaker 1: podcast about things overlooked and misunderstood. This is part of 68 00:03:44,316 --> 00:03:47,556 Speaker 1: a series introducing my new book, Revenge of the Tipping Point, 69 00:03:47,956 --> 00:03:54,156 Speaker 1: now available everywhere. And in this episode, I'm looking back 70 00:03:54,676 --> 00:03:57,396 Speaker 1: that the question that got me started on tipping points 71 00:03:57,716 --> 00:04:01,636 Speaker 1: twenty five years ago. How in the nineties did New 72 00:04:01,716 --> 00:04:06,516 Speaker 1: York become one of the safest cities in America. In 73 00:04:06,556 --> 00:04:08,636 Speaker 1: nineteen ninety six, I wrote an article for The New 74 00:04:08,676 --> 00:04:11,396 Speaker 1: York and Mega trying to explain this puzzle. It was 75 00:04:11,436 --> 00:04:14,836 Speaker 1: called The Tipping Point. That article led to my first book, 76 00:04:15,116 --> 00:04:18,916 Speaker 1: called The Tipping Point, where I offered a more complete explanation. 77 00:04:19,596 --> 00:04:22,676 Speaker 1: The success of The Tipping Point led to another book 78 00:04:22,956 --> 00:04:26,596 Speaker 1: and another. I wouldn't be here today talking to you 79 00:04:26,836 --> 00:04:29,516 Speaker 1: were it not for my obsession way back when about 80 00:04:29,516 --> 00:04:32,196 Speaker 1: what happened to crime in New York in the nineteen nineties. 81 00:04:33,516 --> 00:04:35,636 Speaker 1: And now I've written a sequel to that first book. 82 00:04:35,996 --> 00:04:39,156 Speaker 1: Did I mention that it's at in bookstores everywhere. It's 83 00:04:39,196 --> 00:04:42,316 Speaker 1: called Revenge of the Tipping Point. And in that spirit, 84 00:04:42,516 --> 00:04:46,116 Speaker 1: I've decided to go back and conduct an audit of 85 00:04:46,236 --> 00:04:49,236 Speaker 1: my conclusions from twenty five years ago, to look at 86 00:04:49,276 --> 00:04:53,196 Speaker 1: my thirty something self in the eye and ask was 87 00:04:53,236 --> 00:05:01,316 Speaker 1: I right Back in the nineties. I used to go 88 00:05:01,356 --> 00:05:03,916 Speaker 1: to New York University's library all the time to look 89 00:05:03,956 --> 00:05:08,756 Speaker 1: for ideas, bopes. A big squat redstone building on Washington 90 00:05:08,796 --> 00:05:12,396 Speaker 1: Square in Greenwich Village. This was before Google, so I 91 00:05:12,556 --> 00:05:16,316 Speaker 1: was my own search engine. I'd wander the stacks for hours, 92 00:05:17,596 --> 00:05:20,036 Speaker 1: and one day I was on the fifth floor in 93 00:05:20,116 --> 00:05:23,356 Speaker 1: the HM one Dot, a sixth aisle and I started 94 00:05:23,396 --> 00:05:26,356 Speaker 1: leafing through the bank issues of the American Journal of 95 00:05:26,356 --> 00:05:30,116 Speaker 1: Sociology from nineteen ninety one, and I found a paper 96 00:05:30,476 --> 00:05:35,956 Speaker 1: written by a professor named Jonathan Crane entitled the Epidemic 97 00:05:36,076 --> 00:05:40,036 Speaker 1: Theory of Ghettos and Neighborhood Effects on Dropping Out and 98 00:05:40,076 --> 00:05:44,556 Speaker 1: teenage Childbearing. A choice of words no one would use today. 99 00:05:45,316 --> 00:05:50,196 Speaker 1: This is how it started. The word epidemic is commonly 100 00:05:50,276 --> 00:05:54,396 Speaker 1: used to describe the high incidence of social problems in ghettos. 101 00:05:54,996 --> 00:05:58,836 Speaker 1: The news is filled with feature stories on crack epidemics, 102 00:05:59,196 --> 00:06:04,436 Speaker 1: epidemics of gang violence, and epidemics of teenaged childbearing. The 103 00:06:04,516 --> 00:06:08,396 Speaker 1: term is used loosely in popular parlance, but turns out 104 00:06:08,676 --> 00:06:12,956 Speaker 1: to be real remarkably apt. The word epidemic to Crane 105 00:06:13,236 --> 00:06:17,076 Speaker 1: wasn't a metaphor, It was a literal description. His point 106 00:06:17,236 --> 00:06:19,956 Speaker 1: was that if you look closely at how those problems spread, 107 00:06:20,116 --> 00:06:22,276 Speaker 1: how and why they go up and down, it looks 108 00:06:22,636 --> 00:06:27,116 Speaker 1: exactly like the way viruses spread, same rules, same patterns. 109 00:06:27,676 --> 00:06:30,796 Speaker 1: And when I read that first paragraph, I thought, oh 110 00:06:30,836 --> 00:06:34,836 Speaker 1: my god, this is exactly what happened in New York City. 111 00:06:35,076 --> 00:06:38,276 Speaker 1: We had a real, live epidemic of crime. And what 112 00:06:38,436 --> 00:06:41,796 Speaker 1: is the hallmark of an epidemic, a tipping point, the 113 00:06:41,876 --> 00:06:47,156 Speaker 1: moment when everything changes all at once. That moment when 114 00:06:47,196 --> 00:06:49,796 Speaker 1: I left my window open because I suddenly felt safe 115 00:06:50,356 --> 00:06:54,236 Speaker 1: was our tipping point, and so front and center in 116 00:06:54,316 --> 00:06:57,076 Speaker 1: my first book was a description of what I saw 117 00:06:57,116 --> 00:07:00,796 Speaker 1: as the reason why New York's epidemic suddenly tipped the 118 00:07:00,836 --> 00:07:07,756 Speaker 1: police department's commitment to broken windows. Policing broken windows was 119 00:07:07,796 --> 00:07:11,716 Speaker 1: a theory that small rhymes or invitations for large crimes. 120 00:07:11,996 --> 00:07:14,316 Speaker 1: That if you let people get away with little things, 121 00:07:14,636 --> 00:07:16,956 Speaker 1: then you were signaling that it was okay to cross 122 00:07:16,996 --> 00:07:20,676 Speaker 1: the line into bigger things, like serious acts of violence. 123 00:07:21,196 --> 00:07:23,516 Speaker 1: And so what do you do? You don't let people 124 00:07:23,516 --> 00:07:26,876 Speaker 1: get away with the little things. He was taking the 125 00:07:26,916 --> 00:07:30,796 Speaker 1: concept of an epidemic and applying it to crime. Lawlessness 126 00:07:30,916 --> 00:07:33,916 Speaker 1: wasn't random. It was something you could catch from those 127 00:07:33,956 --> 00:07:36,476 Speaker 1: around you, the same way you can catch a cold 128 00:07:36,796 --> 00:07:39,636 Speaker 1: from a warm, stuffy room full of four year olds. 129 00:07:40,036 --> 00:07:43,756 Speaker 8: If somebody urinates in public, the person is telling you 130 00:07:44,236 --> 00:07:48,956 Speaker 8: I got a big problem. This is what broken windows 131 00:07:48,956 --> 00:07:49,916 Speaker 8: theory is all about. 132 00:07:50,196 --> 00:07:53,636 Speaker 1: The biggest champion of this idea was Rudy Giulioni, the 133 00:07:53,676 --> 00:07:55,756 Speaker 1: mayor of New York City at the time. Here he 134 00:07:55,876 --> 00:07:58,316 Speaker 1: is at a press conference in the mid nineties, a 135 00:07:58,356 --> 00:08:01,356 Speaker 1: few years into the Broken Windows experiment, where in a 136 00:08:01,396 --> 00:08:04,076 Speaker 1: span of just a minute and a half he references 137 00:08:04,156 --> 00:08:06,516 Speaker 1: public urination eight times. 138 00:08:07,036 --> 00:08:11,596 Speaker 8: I mean, if some guy is urinated in public, we 139 00:08:11,676 --> 00:08:14,156 Speaker 8: got a problem. Now you can do one of two things. 140 00:08:14,196 --> 00:08:16,556 Speaker 8: You can ignore the problem and say, gee, I'm such 141 00:08:16,596 --> 00:08:19,756 Speaker 8: a big, fuzzy headed liberal that I'm going to walk 142 00:08:19,796 --> 00:08:22,796 Speaker 8: away from it, and you're gonna make believe they have 143 00:08:22,796 --> 00:08:25,316 Speaker 8: no problem. That's New York City in the nineteen eighties. 144 00:08:25,476 --> 00:08:28,036 Speaker 8: That's New York City with two thousand murders. That's New 145 00:08:28,116 --> 00:08:32,596 Speaker 8: York City with five hundred thousand crimes. You have to 146 00:08:32,636 --> 00:08:35,636 Speaker 8: pay attention to people urinating on the streets, and you 147 00:08:35,716 --> 00:08:39,476 Speaker 8: have to get people to stop urinating on the streets. 148 00:08:39,196 --> 00:08:44,556 Speaker 8: That's moving towards civilization, that's moving toward decency. That's what 149 00:08:44,596 --> 00:08:47,356 Speaker 8: I mean by a decent society that people want to 150 00:08:47,396 --> 00:08:50,876 Speaker 8: invest in, people want their children to live in. You've 151 00:08:50,916 --> 00:08:53,156 Speaker 8: got to pay attention to somebody urinating on the street. 152 00:08:53,276 --> 00:08:54,996 Speaker 8: It may be a minor thing, it may be a 153 00:08:55,036 --> 00:08:58,516 Speaker 8: serious thing, but you cannot ignore it. You have to 154 00:08:58,556 --> 00:09:01,796 Speaker 8: deal with it. It is against the law to urinate 155 00:09:02,236 --> 00:09:02,836 Speaker 8: in public. 156 00:09:05,556 --> 00:09:08,916 Speaker 1: Giuliani was elected in nineteen ninety three and re elected 157 00:09:09,116 --> 00:09:12,396 Speaker 1: in ninety seven by a huge margin. Under his watch, 158 00:09:12,676 --> 00:09:15,836 Speaker 1: the city was revitalized. People who had fled for the 159 00:09:15,876 --> 00:09:19,876 Speaker 1: suburbs came back. Huge parts of Brooklyn were gentrified. Central 160 00:09:19,916 --> 00:09:23,676 Speaker 1: Park was cleaned up. I cannot tell you how gratifying 161 00:09:23,716 --> 00:09:25,516 Speaker 1: it was to be a New Yorker in those years 162 00:09:25,756 --> 00:09:29,196 Speaker 1: and finally get a mayor who said enough, you can't 163 00:09:29,276 --> 00:09:32,636 Speaker 1: jump subway turnstiles and smoke dope on the corner and 164 00:09:32,676 --> 00:09:37,276 Speaker 1: harassed pedestrians. But Giuliani wasn't just making an argument for civility, 165 00:09:37,876 --> 00:09:39,796 Speaker 1: that it was more pleasant to live in a city 166 00:09:39,956 --> 00:09:42,476 Speaker 1: where the streets were clean and the police were alert 167 00:09:42,516 --> 00:09:45,796 Speaker 1: to every sign of disorder. He was making a more 168 00:09:45,916 --> 00:09:49,956 Speaker 1: extravagant claim that arresting the guy urinating on the street 169 00:09:50,596 --> 00:09:54,196 Speaker 1: was the reason why the murder rate dropped, and I 170 00:09:54,276 --> 00:10:02,076 Speaker 1: believed him. Malcolm Gladwell is about to publish a book. 171 00:10:02,556 --> 00:10:04,996 Speaker 7: Whenever it happens, huge things occur. 172 00:10:05,676 --> 00:10:08,476 Speaker 1: About ten years ago, the journalist John Ronson did a 173 00:10:08,516 --> 00:10:11,236 Speaker 1: retrospect dive on the tipping Point for a British program 174 00:10:11,316 --> 00:10:14,156 Speaker 1: called The Culture Show, and he talked to a public 175 00:10:14,156 --> 00:10:16,876 Speaker 1: defender in The Bronx named Kate Rubin No. 176 00:10:16,876 --> 00:10:18,436 Speaker 6: I would go around and I would talk to people 177 00:10:18,436 --> 00:10:22,156 Speaker 6: in New York City, and the liberal people progressive people 178 00:10:22,276 --> 00:10:24,356 Speaker 6: would say, oh, well, you know, we've had this miracle 179 00:10:24,356 --> 00:10:26,116 Speaker 6: in New York and some people would say, oh, yeah, 180 00:10:26,156 --> 00:10:28,236 Speaker 6: Malcolm Gladwell's idea broken windows. 181 00:10:28,516 --> 00:10:30,636 Speaker 1: I didn't watch any of this at the time, even 182 00:10:30,676 --> 00:10:33,356 Speaker 1: though Ronson interviewed me for the segment too. But I 183 00:10:33,396 --> 00:10:35,836 Speaker 1: found it while working on this episode, and it made 184 00:10:35,836 --> 00:10:38,756 Speaker 1: me realize the claims I made in The Tipping Point 185 00:10:38,996 --> 00:10:41,076 Speaker 1: had far more reach than I'd ever imagined. 186 00:10:41,476 --> 00:10:43,996 Speaker 6: Some people knew that it wasn't his idea, but that 187 00:10:44,036 --> 00:10:45,996 Speaker 6: he had popularized it. They'd read about it in The 188 00:10:46,036 --> 00:10:49,236 Speaker 6: New Yorker and his book, The Tipping Point. I would 189 00:10:49,276 --> 00:10:52,316 Speaker 6: never try to speak to what his intent was, but 190 00:10:52,516 --> 00:10:53,716 Speaker 6: I think the impact that. 191 00:10:53,716 --> 00:10:59,956 Speaker 2: He had was to serve as. 192 00:10:57,756 --> 00:11:04,276 Speaker 6: Basically a marketing force for this idea. He truly popularized. 193 00:11:03,476 --> 00:11:18,756 Speaker 1: It, so once again was right. On the afternoon of 194 00:11:18,756 --> 00:11:21,996 Speaker 1: February twenty seventh, two thousand and eight, a young man 195 00:11:22,076 --> 00:11:25,396 Speaker 1: named David Floyd left his apartment on Beach Avenue in 196 00:11:25,436 --> 00:11:28,716 Speaker 1: the Bronx. As he walked down the pathway next to 197 00:11:28,756 --> 00:11:31,796 Speaker 1: his building. He ran into the tenant to live downstairs, 198 00:11:32,156 --> 00:11:34,716 Speaker 1: who said he'd locked himself out of his apartment. 199 00:11:35,396 --> 00:11:38,596 Speaker 9: I was leaving my apartment to actually go to school. 200 00:11:39,556 --> 00:11:41,956 Speaker 9: Heading to school, I had my book bag on, you know, 201 00:11:42,196 --> 00:11:45,356 Speaker 9: everything that normal students do as they're going to school. 202 00:11:45,636 --> 00:11:49,156 Speaker 1: Missus Floyd, speaking in an interview with the Civil Rights Group, 203 00:11:49,236 --> 00:11:53,516 Speaker 1: raced forward. The landlord was Floyd's godmother, so Floyd went 204 00:11:53,556 --> 00:11:56,236 Speaker 1: back inside to her apartment to get a ring of keys, 205 00:11:56,956 --> 00:11:58,956 Speaker 1: and as he and the tenant tried to figure out 206 00:11:58,996 --> 00:12:01,796 Speaker 1: which key worked in the door, three plane clothes police 207 00:12:01,796 --> 00:12:05,596 Speaker 1: officers suddenly emerged. There have been reports of burglars in 208 00:12:05,596 --> 00:12:08,236 Speaker 1: the neighborhood, and here were two young men trying to 209 00:12:08,236 --> 00:12:09,436 Speaker 1: get into a locked up department. 210 00:12:09,956 --> 00:12:14,316 Speaker 9: We were stopped. We were first. We were of course 211 00:12:14,396 --> 00:12:16,756 Speaker 9: told to put our hands up to stay where we were. 212 00:12:17,236 --> 00:12:20,036 Speaker 1: This was how the police put broken windows into practice. 213 00:12:20,596 --> 00:12:23,516 Speaker 1: Don't let the little things pass you by. Be aggressive. 214 00:12:23,796 --> 00:12:27,076 Speaker 1: Check for weapons, drugs. Maybe you find them, maybe you don't. 215 00:12:27,276 --> 00:12:29,476 Speaker 1: But if you do that enough times, then young men 216 00:12:29,556 --> 00:12:32,716 Speaker 1: leave their guns and drugs at home. Floyd had actually 217 00:12:32,716 --> 00:12:35,596 Speaker 1: been stopped the previous April while walking down the street, 218 00:12:36,036 --> 00:12:38,876 Speaker 1: followed by three officers in a van who jumped out 219 00:12:39,036 --> 00:12:40,156 Speaker 1: and confronted him. 220 00:12:40,556 --> 00:12:46,796 Speaker 9: And again, it's just the whole experience. It's humiliating, it's embarrassing, 221 00:12:47,236 --> 00:12:49,996 Speaker 9: and really, you know, it doesn't matter what kind of 222 00:12:50,036 --> 00:12:53,036 Speaker 9: person you are, how tough you are, whatever, it's a 223 00:12:53,076 --> 00:12:56,716 Speaker 9: scary thing because you don't know what is going to 224 00:12:56,756 --> 00:12:58,876 Speaker 9: happen with your life. You don't know what's going to 225 00:12:58,876 --> 00:13:04,636 Speaker 9: happen with your freedom. 226 00:13:04,716 --> 00:13:08,156 Speaker 1: Floyd becomes the face of a massive class action lawsuit 227 00:13:08,596 --> 00:13:12,956 Speaker 1: Floyd the City of New York, challenging the NYPDS policy 228 00:13:13,196 --> 00:13:17,636 Speaker 1: of stop and frisk, and in twenty thirteen, Floyd wins. 229 00:13:18,156 --> 00:13:21,476 Speaker 1: In a shocking ruling, a federal judge said the NYPD's 230 00:13:21,596 --> 00:13:26,116 Speaker 1: use of stopping frisk was unconstitutional, effectively ending the broken 231 00:13:26,156 --> 00:13:29,636 Speaker 1: windows era in New York City policing. Yes, it still 232 00:13:29,636 --> 00:13:31,756 Speaker 1: happens today, but not in the way that they did 233 00:13:31,876 --> 00:13:35,996 Speaker 1: ten years ago, not even remotely close. It's no exaggeration 234 00:13:36,116 --> 00:13:39,476 Speaker 1: to say that this was one of the most consequential 235 00:13:39,516 --> 00:13:41,756 Speaker 1: court cases in the city's history. 236 00:13:42,476 --> 00:13:44,716 Speaker 4: A lot of people at the time, and I think, 237 00:13:44,876 --> 00:13:47,196 Speaker 4: you know, not without reason, said wow, this is going 238 00:13:47,276 --> 00:13:48,916 Speaker 4: to compromise public safety. 239 00:13:49,316 --> 00:13:51,636 Speaker 1: This is Aaron Chelfin, who's part of a group of 240 00:13:51,636 --> 00:13:55,796 Speaker 1: criminologists who have devoted themselves to understanding what exactly happened 241 00:13:55,796 --> 00:13:56,276 Speaker 1: in New York. 242 00:13:56,516 --> 00:13:58,436 Speaker 4: The police are no longer going to be able to 243 00:13:58,476 --> 00:14:01,076 Speaker 4: make a lot of stops and really show people that 244 00:14:01,116 --> 00:14:04,476 Speaker 4: they were being proactive, so that might embolden more gun carrying, 245 00:14:04,516 --> 00:14:06,276 Speaker 4: more violence, more homicide. 246 00:14:06,956 --> 00:14:09,356 Speaker 1: When Cholfin says that at the time, a lot of 247 00:14:09,396 --> 00:14:12,156 Speaker 1: people thought ending stop and frisk was going to lead 248 00:14:12,196 --> 00:14:16,156 Speaker 1: to crime going back up, he means everyone, city government, 249 00:14:16,276 --> 00:14:19,316 Speaker 1: the police force, pundits of every variety. That's what I 250 00:14:19,396 --> 00:14:22,756 Speaker 1: thought too. What everyone was saying in effect was this, Yes, 251 00:14:23,156 --> 00:14:26,436 Speaker 1: doing hundreds of thousands of police stops a year of 252 00:14:26,516 --> 00:14:29,156 Speaker 1: young men like David Floyd, who maybe doing nothing more 253 00:14:29,196 --> 00:14:32,916 Speaker 1: than helping out a friend is unfortunate, but being killed 254 00:14:33,276 --> 00:14:36,476 Speaker 1: is a lot worse. And since this is what's keeping 255 00:14:36,516 --> 00:14:39,836 Speaker 1: the crime rate down, we don't have a choice. That 256 00:14:40,156 --> 00:14:43,356 Speaker 1: was the calculus. Even the judge in the Floyd case 257 00:14:43,556 --> 00:14:48,036 Speaker 1: begins her ruling by making the same point I emphasize 258 00:14:48,076 --> 00:14:51,156 Speaker 1: at the outset, as I have throughout the litigation, that 259 00:14:51,276 --> 00:14:54,516 Speaker 1: this case is not about the effectiveness of stopping frisk 260 00:14:54,876 --> 00:14:59,316 Speaker 1: in deterring or combating crime. This Court's mandate is solely 261 00:14:59,356 --> 00:15:04,076 Speaker 1: to judge the constitutionality of police behavior, not its effectiveness 262 00:15:04,276 --> 00:15:08,396 Speaker 1: as a law enforcement tool. She goes on many police 263 00:15:08,436 --> 00:15:14,076 Speaker 1: practices maybe useful for fighting crime, preventive detention or coerced confessions, 264 00:15:14,076 --> 00:15:18,156 Speaker 1: for example, but because they are unconstitutional, they cannot be 265 00:15:18,276 --> 00:15:23,396 Speaker 1: used no matter how effective. She's basically saying, there's a 266 00:15:23,396 --> 00:15:25,236 Speaker 1: good chance that crime is going to go back up 267 00:15:25,316 --> 00:15:28,876 Speaker 1: because of my ruling. But the Constitution is the constitution. 268 00:15:29,956 --> 00:15:34,596 Speaker 1: Even the people who hated broken windows thought that it worked, 269 00:15:35,476 --> 00:15:39,316 Speaker 1: but then the very thing that absolutely no one expected 270 00:15:39,356 --> 00:15:43,596 Speaker 1: to happen happens. Crime falls. 271 00:15:44,156 --> 00:15:47,556 Speaker 4: We ended stop question frisk in New York. We know 272 00:15:47,636 --> 00:15:49,916 Speaker 4: that went down by ninety or ninety five percent, depending 273 00:15:49,916 --> 00:15:54,436 Speaker 4: on which numbers you look at, and yet we had 274 00:15:54,436 --> 00:15:57,636 Speaker 4: this incredible, incredible fifty percent to climb in homicide. 275 00:15:58,196 --> 00:16:01,756 Speaker 1: In social science, a natural experiment is when the real 276 00:16:01,796 --> 00:16:04,156 Speaker 1: world provides you with a clean way of measuring the 277 00:16:04,196 --> 00:16:08,356 Speaker 1: truth or falsity of a given proposition. The Floyd decision 278 00:16:08,756 --> 00:16:12,756 Speaker 1: was the perfect natural experiment for broken windows. All you 279 00:16:12,756 --> 00:16:15,716 Speaker 1: have to do is compared before with after. 280 00:16:16,196 --> 00:16:19,036 Speaker 4: The amazing thing about New York is that if you 281 00:16:19,076 --> 00:16:21,236 Speaker 4: look at twenty ten, New York City had a banner 282 00:16:21,316 --> 00:16:22,476 Speaker 4: year in terms of homicide. 283 00:16:22,476 --> 00:16:22,676 Speaker 8: It had. 284 00:16:22,716 --> 00:16:25,036 Speaker 4: It was one of the lowest homicide rates in forty 285 00:16:25,116 --> 00:16:27,476 Speaker 4: years in the city's history in twenty ten, and you 286 00:16:27,476 --> 00:16:30,116 Speaker 4: would have said, well, like, great progress, let's just keep 287 00:16:30,116 --> 00:16:33,076 Speaker 4: it up. Let's keep up the good work. Incredibly, by 288 00:16:33,116 --> 00:16:36,636 Speaker 4: twenty nineteen, the year before the pandemic right, homicides went 289 00:16:36,636 --> 00:16:39,316 Speaker 4: down by fifty percent in New York compared to twenty ten. 290 00:16:39,476 --> 00:16:42,836 Speaker 4: Between twenty ten and twenty nineteen, New York is unique 291 00:16:43,276 --> 00:16:45,996 Speaker 4: in that it had another great homicide decline at a 292 00:16:46,036 --> 00:16:48,116 Speaker 4: time when homicides were really flat nationally. 293 00:16:48,756 --> 00:16:53,036 Speaker 1: This is hands down one of the strangest and craziest 294 00:16:53,236 --> 00:16:56,996 Speaker 1: urban transformations ever. Just to give you a sense, if 295 00:16:57,116 --> 00:17:00,196 Speaker 1: New York City's crime rate in nineteen ninety had just 296 00:17:00,276 --> 00:17:03,396 Speaker 1: stayed the same, didn't change for the next thirty five years, 297 00:17:03,636 --> 00:17:07,836 Speaker 1: the city would have had an additional sixty two thousand homicides, 298 00:17:08,276 --> 00:17:10,996 Speaker 1: most of them in all likelihood young men of color. 299 00:17:11,836 --> 00:17:15,796 Speaker 1: Sixty two thousand young men currently walking around New York 300 00:17:16,156 --> 00:17:16,996 Speaker 1: would be dead. 301 00:17:17,716 --> 00:17:20,476 Speaker 4: And by twenty nineteen, New York is almost as safe 302 00:17:20,476 --> 00:17:23,356 Speaker 4: as Paris with respect to homicide rate. It's New York 303 00:17:23,436 --> 00:17:25,436 Speaker 4: is closer to Paris than it is to other US cities, 304 00:17:25,476 --> 00:17:28,756 Speaker 4: even like Boston, which is another safe city. Right, it's incredible. 305 00:17:31,996 --> 00:17:34,396 Speaker 1: You know how those billionaires left New York City from 306 00:17:34,436 --> 00:17:37,236 Speaker 1: Miami during the pandemic, saying they couldn't deal with the 307 00:17:37,276 --> 00:17:40,916 Speaker 1: taxes and the crime. Well, the violent crime rate in 308 00:17:40,956 --> 00:17:44,236 Speaker 1: New York City after that second wave is half that 309 00:17:44,356 --> 00:17:47,516 Speaker 1: of Miami. If you're really worried about crime, you should 310 00:17:47,516 --> 00:17:50,796 Speaker 1: be selling your waterfront home in Coral Gables before someone 311 00:17:50,876 --> 00:17:55,716 Speaker 1: murders you and move somewhere much safer like the Bronx. 312 00:17:56,476 --> 00:18:00,876 Speaker 1: Or here's another. JD. Vance, the junior senator from Ohio, 313 00:18:01,076 --> 00:18:06,156 Speaker 1: tweets this in twenty twenty one, serious question. I have 314 00:18:06,236 --> 00:18:07,956 Speaker 1: to go to New York soon, and I'm trying to 315 00:18:07,956 --> 00:18:10,876 Speaker 1: figure out where to stay. I've heard it's disgusting and 316 00:18:10,996 --> 00:18:14,236 Speaker 1: violent there. But is it like Walking Dead Season one 317 00:18:14,836 --> 00:18:18,396 Speaker 1: or season four? I know, I know there's a whole 318 00:18:18,436 --> 00:18:22,236 Speaker 1: cottage industry of unearthing crazy things. J. D. Vance once said, 319 00:18:22,756 --> 00:18:26,636 Speaker 1: but Vance is from just outside Cincinnati. The violent crime 320 00:18:26,716 --> 00:18:29,756 Speaker 1: rate in Cincinnati at the exact moment he wrote that 321 00:18:29,796 --> 00:18:33,356 Speaker 1: tweet was twice the violent crime rate in New York City. 322 00:18:33,996 --> 00:18:37,476 Speaker 1: Serious question, Senator. I have to go to your hometown soon, 323 00:18:37,716 --> 00:18:40,076 Speaker 1: and I'm trying to figure out where to stay because 324 00:18:40,076 --> 00:18:43,476 Speaker 1: compared to where I come from, it's disgusting and violent there. 325 00:18:45,356 --> 00:18:49,396 Speaker 1: But I digress back to Chalfin and the question at hand. 326 00:18:49,956 --> 00:18:52,156 Speaker 4: And so you know, it does give you the sense 327 00:18:52,236 --> 00:18:54,636 Speaker 4: that making loss and loss of these stops was not 328 00:18:54,756 --> 00:18:55,596 Speaker 4: the key ingredient. 329 00:18:55,876 --> 00:18:59,796 Speaker 1: It does, doesn't it. We conducted a natural experiment and 330 00:18:59,836 --> 00:19:04,956 Speaker 1: the results are in. It wasn't broken windows, it wasn't 331 00:19:05,596 --> 00:19:06,396 Speaker 1: stop and frisk. 332 00:19:07,356 --> 00:19:10,716 Speaker 5: My administration will issue hundreds of millions of dollars in 333 00:19:10,796 --> 00:19:14,356 Speaker 5: federal grants to reward cities and towns and return to 334 00:19:14,516 --> 00:19:18,956 Speaker 5: proven crime fighting methods, including stop and frisk and broken 335 00:19:19,036 --> 00:19:22,876 Speaker 5: windows policing. We did that with Rudy Giuliani was so successful. 336 00:19:24,156 --> 00:19:27,316 Speaker 1: At three o'clock in the morning. Sometimes I lie awake 337 00:19:27,356 --> 00:19:30,876 Speaker 1: and I think, oh God, did he read The Tipping 338 00:19:30,876 --> 00:19:49,716 Speaker 1: Point too. I don't reread any of my books once 339 00:19:49,756 --> 00:19:53,076 Speaker 1: I've written them, particularly ones from twenty five years ago, 340 00:19:53,276 --> 00:19:56,396 Speaker 1: like the Tipping Point. I mean, why would I do? 341 00:19:56,476 --> 00:19:57,876 Speaker 1: I want to wear the clothes I wore in the 342 00:19:57,956 --> 00:20:00,876 Speaker 1: year two thousand, No, I don't do I even want 343 00:20:00,876 --> 00:20:05,476 Speaker 1: to see pictures of myself from two thousand, not particularly so. 344 00:20:05,596 --> 00:20:08,236 Speaker 1: I didn't reread The Tipping Point until I made the 345 00:20:08,236 --> 00:20:12,196 Speaker 1: decision last year to revisit my first book on its 346 00:20:12,276 --> 00:20:16,556 Speaker 1: silver anniversary. There were parts that I love. It felt 347 00:20:16,556 --> 00:20:20,916 Speaker 1: like rediscovering some lost friend, Hush Puppies, Six Degrees of 348 00:20:20,956 --> 00:20:24,956 Speaker 1: Lois Weisberg, Paul Revere's Ride. There are also parts that 349 00:20:25,076 --> 00:20:28,596 Speaker 1: mystified me. Did I really write an entire chapter on 350 00:20:28,636 --> 00:20:33,356 Speaker 1: the children's TV show Blues Clues? But the crime chapter 351 00:20:33,796 --> 00:20:36,436 Speaker 1: was the only place where I said I would write 352 00:20:36,436 --> 00:20:41,916 Speaker 1: that so differently today Today, if I were rewriting, I'd 353 00:20:41,916 --> 00:20:44,956 Speaker 1: begin with the work of a sociologist in Chicago named 354 00:20:45,036 --> 00:20:46,316 Speaker 1: Andrew Papachristos. 355 00:20:46,876 --> 00:20:50,156 Speaker 7: People talk about gun violence as an epidemic or disease, 356 00:20:50,196 --> 00:20:52,516 Speaker 7: and it is in many fronts, but really I wanted 357 00:20:52,516 --> 00:20:54,756 Speaker 7: to take it seriously, like, ohay, if it's an epidemic, 358 00:20:55,556 --> 00:20:58,236 Speaker 7: is it a bloodborne pathogen or is it an airborne pathogen? 359 00:20:58,276 --> 00:21:01,356 Speaker 7: And actually, thank God, it's not an airborne pathogen. 360 00:21:01,596 --> 00:21:01,756 Speaker 5: Right. 361 00:21:01,836 --> 00:21:03,876 Speaker 7: You don't catch a bullet like you catch a cold. 362 00:21:04,196 --> 00:21:06,916 Speaker 7: It's actually transmitted through behaviors. And I just try to 363 00:21:06,916 --> 00:21:10,476 Speaker 7: figure out ways that science might kind of boost or 364 00:21:10,516 --> 00:21:11,956 Speaker 7: amplify those insights. 365 00:21:12,196 --> 00:21:15,396 Speaker 1: Papa Cristos took every single arrest over more than six 366 00:21:15,476 --> 00:21:19,796 Speaker 1: years in Chicago, so hundreds of thousands of arrests, and 367 00:21:19,836 --> 00:21:22,076 Speaker 1: he made something called a network map. 368 00:21:22,396 --> 00:21:24,436 Speaker 7: All right, first you see it happens in groups, and 369 00:21:24,476 --> 00:21:27,516 Speaker 7: then like, okay, what about individuals? All right, well does 370 00:21:27,556 --> 00:21:30,396 Speaker 7: it concentrate? What about exposure? What about time? 371 00:21:33,036 --> 00:21:36,276 Speaker 1: So if Andy and Malcolm are arrested together for shooting someone, 372 00:21:36,756 --> 00:21:38,956 Speaker 1: then Andy and Malcolm are two dots on the map, 373 00:21:39,236 --> 00:21:42,476 Speaker 1: connected by a line. And if Malcolm then is arrested 374 00:21:42,516 --> 00:21:46,836 Speaker 1: with Joe as a line connecting Malcolm to Joe, Malcolm 375 00:21:46,836 --> 00:21:50,276 Speaker 1: and Joe are one degree, or, to use Papa Cristos's 376 00:21:50,276 --> 00:21:55,476 Speaker 1: favorite term, one handshake apart, Joe and Andy two handshakes apart. 377 00:21:56,156 --> 00:21:59,436 Speaker 1: You do that for years and years of Chicago arrest data, 378 00:21:59,516 --> 00:22:01,956 Speaker 1: and you get a truly enormous map. 379 00:22:02,596 --> 00:22:07,676 Speaker 7: You have this very very large network, right, and then 380 00:22:07,676 --> 00:22:10,716 Speaker 7: what you do is you sprinkle in the victimizations, which 381 00:22:10,756 --> 00:22:14,276 Speaker 7: come from a separate source of data, right. They come 382 00:22:14,316 --> 00:22:17,676 Speaker 7: from homicide records, they come from shooting files, police public health. 383 00:22:17,836 --> 00:22:20,076 Speaker 1: He took the names of everyone who had been shot 384 00:22:20,156 --> 00:22:23,476 Speaker 1: over the same period, and look to see how many 385 00:22:23,556 --> 00:22:26,996 Speaker 1: of those names were in his network map. And what 386 00:22:27,076 --> 00:22:31,516 Speaker 1: he found was the victims were already there, and they 387 00:22:31,556 --> 00:22:32,636 Speaker 1: were clustered together. 388 00:22:33,476 --> 00:22:37,156 Speaker 7: You just matched the data, and every place where there's 389 00:22:37,196 --> 00:22:41,076 Speaker 7: a shooting, the victims bright red, for example. And then 390 00:22:41,076 --> 00:22:46,316 Speaker 7: what you see is that these bright red dots all 391 00:22:46,396 --> 00:22:49,876 Speaker 7: lingered together. I'll clump together, right like your kid took 392 00:22:49,876 --> 00:22:52,316 Speaker 7: a handful of Christmas ornaments and like threw to the tree, 393 00:22:52,316 --> 00:22:53,516 Speaker 7: and they're all on one spot. 394 00:22:53,916 --> 00:22:57,036 Speaker 1: It looks just like the social maps epidemil just used 395 00:22:57,076 --> 00:22:59,676 Speaker 1: to construct for the spread of HIV in the nineteen eighties. 396 00:23:00,196 --> 00:23:03,236 Speaker 1: If someone in your social circle got infected with HIV, 397 00:23:03,756 --> 00:23:07,876 Speaker 1: then your chances of becoming infected with HIV increased. In 398 00:23:07,916 --> 00:23:12,196 Speaker 1: Papa Cristo's maps, the risk of contagion extended three degrees. 399 00:23:12,796 --> 00:23:15,636 Speaker 1: If Malcolm gets shot, Andy is at risk, and so 400 00:23:15,796 --> 00:23:18,276 Speaker 1: is Joe, and so are any people Andy and Joe 401 00:23:18,356 --> 00:23:19,116 Speaker 1: were arrested with. 402 00:23:19,756 --> 00:23:24,396 Speaker 7: Like other social networks, the impact of these shootings tends 403 00:23:24,436 --> 00:23:27,676 Speaker 7: to go about two or three handshakes and then it 404 00:23:27,716 --> 00:23:30,036 Speaker 7: starts to kind of drop off. So these clusters are 405 00:23:30,076 --> 00:23:32,756 Speaker 7: fairly dense, and they stick around. 406 00:23:32,876 --> 00:23:35,236 Speaker 1: So hold on, this is this is crucial. So I've 407 00:23:35,276 --> 00:23:40,236 Speaker 1: got my I've got my social network map, and I'm overlaying. 408 00:23:40,796 --> 00:23:44,196 Speaker 1: I'm sticking in all of the shootings into the and 409 00:23:44,236 --> 00:23:48,796 Speaker 1: I've noticed that the shootings are clustering. So we have 410 00:23:48,956 --> 00:23:57,876 Speaker 1: this triangle of Joe, Andy, Malcolm, and Malcolm gets shot. 411 00:23:59,436 --> 00:24:03,396 Speaker 1: And so once we observe that Malcolm gets shot, what 412 00:24:03,436 --> 00:24:06,876 Speaker 1: you're saying is that the likelihood of someone in my 413 00:24:07,156 --> 00:24:10,116 Speaker 1: someone connected to me also gets shot. 414 00:24:10,196 --> 00:24:13,156 Speaker 7: Increases skyrockets absolutely. 415 00:24:13,476 --> 00:24:17,356 Speaker 1: And you're saying that the connection the risk is skyrocketing. 416 00:24:17,396 --> 00:24:20,276 Speaker 1: Within between one and three. 417 00:24:21,276 --> 00:24:25,556 Speaker 7: Degrees, that's the where risk is the highest. Yeah, once 418 00:24:25,596 --> 00:24:28,476 Speaker 7: you get past kind of three degrees, it really levels. 419 00:24:28,596 --> 00:24:29,676 Speaker 7: It goes down and levels. 420 00:24:30,236 --> 00:24:32,396 Speaker 1: When do you observe this? Did this surprise you? 421 00:24:32,796 --> 00:24:34,756 Speaker 4: How concentrated it was surprised me. 422 00:24:35,596 --> 00:24:38,316 Speaker 7: You know, when you look at these numbers, even when 423 00:24:38,316 --> 00:24:40,836 Speaker 7: you look at the larger co funding network, you're talking 424 00:24:40,876 --> 00:24:45,196 Speaker 7: about five to six percent of a neighborhood's population. But 425 00:24:45,276 --> 00:24:47,996 Speaker 7: when you start looking at where the violence concentrates, it's 426 00:24:48,076 --> 00:24:51,356 Speaker 7: less than it's less than a percent. You're talking about, 427 00:24:51,516 --> 00:24:52,996 Speaker 7: you know, on the West Side of Chicago, one of 428 00:24:52,996 --> 00:24:55,276 Speaker 7: the neighborhoods we were working, it's about fifty thousand people. 429 00:24:55,276 --> 00:24:58,956 Speaker 7: You're talking about four hundred individuals. 430 00:24:59,516 --> 00:25:03,476 Speaker 1: Four hundred individuals on the entire West Side of Chicago. 431 00:25:04,276 --> 00:25:07,316 Speaker 1: The crime problem on the West Side of Chicago isn't 432 00:25:07,316 --> 00:25:11,116 Speaker 1: being driven by everyone. It's being driven by a tiny 433 00:25:11,156 --> 00:25:15,236 Speaker 1: subset of people within a dense social network where someone 434 00:25:15,436 --> 00:25:18,436 Speaker 1: close to them has already been a victim of gun violence. 435 00:25:19,316 --> 00:25:22,076 Speaker 1: The West Side of Chicago is not a dangerous place. 436 00:25:22,716 --> 00:25:26,356 Speaker 1: Highly specific networks of people within the West Side of 437 00:25:26,436 --> 00:25:30,796 Speaker 1: Chicago are dangerous places. The same pattern holds true in 438 00:25:30,836 --> 00:25:34,116 Speaker 1: New York City. Why wasn't stop and frisk an effective 439 00:25:34,156 --> 00:25:37,596 Speaker 1: strategy in the end, because it assumed that violent crime 440 00:25:37,956 --> 00:25:42,276 Speaker 1: was something embedded within an entire community, and it's not. 441 00:25:42,996 --> 00:25:46,756 Speaker 1: Even the NYPD's own numbers said so. In one eight 442 00:25:46,796 --> 00:25:50,756 Speaker 1: year span, New York City police officers frisked two point 443 00:25:50,876 --> 00:25:55,996 Speaker 1: three million people and found weapons in one point five 444 00:25:55,996 --> 00:26:01,236 Speaker 1: percent of those stops. They were looking for needles in haystacks. 445 00:26:01,676 --> 00:26:06,316 Speaker 1: Why would that be an effective crime fighting strategy. Aaron Chaufin, 446 00:26:06,476 --> 00:26:09,436 Speaker 1: the criminologist, says that one of the main reasons crime 447 00:26:09,476 --> 00:26:12,756 Speaker 1: fell so dramatically in New York after Stop and Frisk ended, 448 00:26:13,116 --> 00:26:16,236 Speaker 1: was that the NYPD took those lessons to heart. They 449 00:26:16,276 --> 00:26:19,796 Speaker 1: switched from the kind of indiscriminate policing found in Stop 450 00:26:19,836 --> 00:26:25,116 Speaker 1: and Frisk to precision policing. They started focusing on hotspots, 451 00:26:25,636 --> 00:26:29,916 Speaker 1: deploying police to the specific places where crime was the worst. 452 00:26:30,116 --> 00:26:34,236 Speaker 4: More targeted investigations, more thinking about who are the shooters, 453 00:26:34,596 --> 00:26:36,956 Speaker 4: who are the major players in neighborhoods that are driving 454 00:26:36,996 --> 00:26:39,796 Speaker 4: the shootings, What can we do to identify those people 455 00:26:39,836 --> 00:26:43,556 Speaker 4: incapacitate those people. So when we think about good policing, 456 00:26:43,636 --> 00:26:46,956 Speaker 4: and we think in particular about homicide, it's a very 457 00:26:47,036 --> 00:26:49,236 Speaker 4: small number of people who drive the problem. It's a 458 00:26:49,236 --> 00:26:51,476 Speaker 4: couple thousand people in a city of eight and a 459 00:26:51,516 --> 00:26:55,876 Speaker 4: half million, And you know, making loss of low level rests, 460 00:26:56,476 --> 00:26:58,956 Speaker 4: maybe you'll find some more guns and things like that, 461 00:26:59,316 --> 00:27:02,916 Speaker 4: but it's probably a much better use of resources to focus, focus, focus, 462 00:27:02,956 --> 00:27:06,476 Speaker 4: focus on the drivers of violence. And when you do that. 463 00:27:07,036 --> 00:27:10,556 Speaker 4: In my paper, we find that when there's a major 464 00:27:10,596 --> 00:27:13,476 Speaker 4: gang takedown around a public housing development, in the next 465 00:27:13,516 --> 00:27:16,276 Speaker 4: eighteen months, homicides are down by about thirty percent. 466 00:27:16,796 --> 00:27:21,636 Speaker 1: Thirty percent. Fighting an epidemic means focusing on the few, 467 00:27:22,516 --> 00:27:25,436 Speaker 1: not the many, and by the way, who made this 468 00:27:25,676 --> 00:27:29,796 Speaker 1: argument as loudly as anyone I did. In the Tipping Point, 469 00:27:29,996 --> 00:27:31,956 Speaker 1: I called it the law the Few, and it took 470 00:27:32,036 --> 00:27:35,556 Speaker 1: up a third of the book. When it comes to epidemics, 471 00:27:35,636 --> 00:27:38,916 Speaker 1: I wrote, a tiny percentage of people do the majority 472 00:27:38,916 --> 00:27:42,236 Speaker 1: of the work. I talked about how this principle plays 473 00:27:42,236 --> 00:27:45,556 Speaker 1: out in outbreaks of infectious disease, in the spread of 474 00:27:45,636 --> 00:27:48,756 Speaker 1: fashion trends in word of mouth. I described in great 475 00:27:48,796 --> 00:27:51,556 Speaker 1: detail the kinds of people who make those special few, 476 00:27:51,876 --> 00:27:55,836 Speaker 1: on and on. But then when it came to crime, 477 00:27:56,356 --> 00:27:58,636 Speaker 1: I suddenly forgot all about the law of the few 478 00:27:59,236 --> 00:28:01,596 Speaker 1: and endorsed an idea that's that a really good way 479 00:28:01,636 --> 00:28:04,516 Speaker 1: to control an epidemic was to stop and frisk one 480 00:28:04,596 --> 00:28:07,116 Speaker 1: hundred young men in the hopes of finding a gun 481 00:28:07,556 --> 00:28:19,356 Speaker 1: on one of them. I was wrong. I'm sorry, So. 482 00:28:19,796 --> 00:28:20,076 Speaker 9: I don't know. 483 00:28:20,076 --> 00:28:22,316 Speaker 1: I Feelfred asked us any questions. There's one more thing 484 00:28:22,316 --> 00:28:24,716 Speaker 1: I would do if I were rewriting the crime chapter. 485 00:28:25,276 --> 00:28:27,956 Speaker 1: I would talk about Philadelphia and about a day I 486 00:28:27,956 --> 00:28:30,516 Speaker 1: spent recently driving around the city with a guy named 487 00:28:30,556 --> 00:28:32,756 Speaker 1: Keith Green. So where are we headed? 488 00:28:33,076 --> 00:28:37,396 Speaker 3: So we're going to be driving in like the West 489 00:28:37,676 --> 00:28:38,916 Speaker 3: Philadelphia area. 490 00:28:38,996 --> 00:28:42,636 Speaker 1: Green works for the Pennsylvania Horticultural Society, a group that 491 00:28:42,756 --> 00:28:45,516 Speaker 1: was founded in eighteen twenty seven and is best known 492 00:28:45,516 --> 00:28:48,876 Speaker 1: for putting on the world's largest indoor flower show. And 493 00:28:48,956 --> 00:28:52,796 Speaker 1: for two hours we talked about vacant lots thirty thousand. 494 00:28:52,916 --> 00:28:55,716 Speaker 3: Yeah, because over thirty thousand the portions in the city 495 00:28:55,756 --> 00:28:56,196 Speaker 3: of the world. 496 00:28:56,476 --> 00:28:59,436 Speaker 1: Yeah, there were blocks we drove past that had two 497 00:28:59,556 --> 00:29:02,636 Speaker 1: or even three vacant lots. Every block seemed to have 498 00:29:02,676 --> 00:29:05,836 Speaker 1: at least one. In the past, they were overgrown with weeds, 499 00:29:06,196 --> 00:29:09,756 Speaker 1: covered in trash, home to rats and raccoons and pod 500 00:29:09,996 --> 00:29:13,236 Speaker 1: And what Green's group has done is to systematically work 501 00:29:13,356 --> 00:29:17,076 Speaker 1: its way through the city, cleaning up the lots, planting grass, 502 00:29:17,316 --> 00:29:18,996 Speaker 1: putting up low fences. 503 00:29:18,996 --> 00:29:23,316 Speaker 3: And we started seeing a dramatic change. Lots were being maintained. 504 00:29:24,356 --> 00:29:26,716 Speaker 3: People starting people started using their lots. 505 00:29:26,796 --> 00:29:29,476 Speaker 1: And when you see people started using the how are 506 00:29:29,516 --> 00:29:29,996 Speaker 1: they used to. 507 00:29:31,196 --> 00:29:36,796 Speaker 3: Well, people with kids were playing football, people would have 508 00:29:36,796 --> 00:29:41,476 Speaker 3: having barbecues on the sites, horses or raising on vacant 509 00:29:41,516 --> 00:29:43,356 Speaker 3: lots horses. 510 00:29:43,956 --> 00:29:47,116 Speaker 1: In the history of the program, they've cleaned up seventeen 511 00:29:47,396 --> 00:29:51,636 Speaker 1: thousand loots. Charles Brannis, the pioneer of the work. Let 512 00:29:51,716 --> 00:29:53,996 Speaker 1: us study to see if cleaning up vacant lots lowered 513 00:29:53,996 --> 00:29:57,156 Speaker 1: the homicide rate. When you fixed up a neighborhood, what 514 00:29:57,276 --> 00:30:02,756 Speaker 1: happened to gun violence? It went down twenty nine percent. Now, 515 00:30:02,876 --> 00:30:05,236 Speaker 1: what's the best way to describe this kind of anti 516 00:30:05,236 --> 00:30:10,116 Speaker 1: crime intervention. It's broken windows only. Not broken windows as 517 00:30:10,156 --> 00:30:13,316 Speaker 1: a grand metaphor, as a hysterical leap that sees a 518 00:30:13,316 --> 00:30:15,996 Speaker 1: man urinating on a sidewalk and says we have no 519 00:30:16,116 --> 00:30:20,116 Speaker 1: choice but to lock him up. No, broken windows has 520 00:30:20,156 --> 00:30:24,116 Speaker 1: a literal call to action. You see the lot full 521 00:30:24,156 --> 00:30:26,916 Speaker 1: of weeds and trash, and you pick up the garbage 522 00:30:27,156 --> 00:30:30,796 Speaker 1: and mow the grass and put a fence out front. 523 00:30:43,236 --> 00:30:45,796 Speaker 1: Region's history is produced by Nina Bird Lawrence with ben 524 00:30:45,836 --> 00:30:50,476 Speaker 1: at Af Haffrey and Lucy Sullivan. Our editor is Karen Schakerji. 525 00:30:50,916 --> 00:30:54,756 Speaker 1: Fact checking by Sam Russick, Original scoring by Luis Kerra, 526 00:30:55,196 --> 00:30:58,996 Speaker 1: mastering by Echo Mountain, Engineering by Sarah Bruger and Nina 527 00:30:58,996 --> 00:31:04,636 Speaker 1: Bird Lawrence. Production support from Luke LeMond. Our Executive producer 528 00:31:04,996 --> 00:31:10,276 Speaker 1: is Jacob Smith. Special thanks to Sarah Nix Always hell 529 00:31:10,356 --> 00:31:15,076 Speaker 1: Hafe Gota Come, I'm Malcolm Glappa.