1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,039 --> 00:00:14,600 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Krisner. 3 00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:18,800 Speaker 2: An escalation of tensions in the Midis triggered more anxiety 4 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:21,840 Speaker 2: and markets. In the last session, Oil prices jumped to 5 00:00:21,880 --> 00:00:24,800 Speaker 2: a five month high in New York trading on speculation 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:29,479 Speaker 2: the US may join Israel's attack on Iran. WTI settled 7 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:32,440 Speaker 2: just under seventy five dollars after rising by more than 8 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 2: four percent. 9 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:34,720 Speaker 3: Earlier in the day. 10 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:37,920 Speaker 2: President Trump met with his national security team, and before 11 00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:42,480 Speaker 2: the meeting, Trump posted a demand for Iran's unconditional surrender. 12 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:45,080 Speaker 2: On top of that, the President warned of a possible 13 00:00:45,120 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 2: strike against Iran's leader, Ayatola Ali Kameni. We heard from 14 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 2: Australia's former ambassador to Israel, Dave Sharma. He said, it's 15 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 2: in Australia's interest to make sure that any tensions arising 16 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:01,920 Speaker 2: from this conflict do not manifest themselves in Australia. 17 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 4: We should be looking to support diplomatic efforts, but bearing 18 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:07,800 Speaker 4: in mind, what is it is the outcome that we 19 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:10,039 Speaker 4: see and we want a Middle East that is at 20 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 4: peace with itself, that can grow and prosper and the 21 00:01:13,720 --> 00:01:16,959 Speaker 4: truth is that Iran has been a massively destabilizing force 22 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:19,759 Speaker 4: in the Middle East now for decades, not only through 23 00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:22,680 Speaker 4: its pursuit of nuclear weapons, not only through its imperialistic 24 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:25,479 Speaker 4: designs on its neighbors, but through its support to armed 25 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:28,720 Speaker 4: terrorist groups such as Hasbola and Lebanon. But who tis 26 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 4: in Yemen. It's propping up of the Asad regime in 27 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 4: Syria for many years, it's fermenting of sheer militias in Iraq. 28 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 4: What we would like to see is a situation where 29 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 4: that sort of destabilization does no longer occur. 30 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 3: Now. 31 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 4: Whether Iran is prepared to countenance that or not, or 32 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 4: at least whether this particular leadership in Iran is prepared 33 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:50,920 Speaker 4: to countenance that or not, that is a question for them. 34 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 2: That's Dave Sharma. He is Australia's former ambassador to Israel. 35 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 2: By the way, the New York Times is reporting Iran 36 00:01:57,600 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 2: has prepared missiles and other military erry equipment four strikes 37 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 2: on US basis in the Middle East should the US 38 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 2: join Israel's war against Iran. So let's stay with geopolitics 39 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 2: for the moment. The Auchus Pact is a security arrangement 40 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:16,640 Speaker 2: between the US, the UK and Australia. It was first 41 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 2: announced in twenty twenty one by then President Joe Biden. 42 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:23,760 Speaker 2: But now the Trump administration is reviewing this agreement and 43 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:28,640 Speaker 2: this is rattling. One of Washington's closest alliances. Joining me 44 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:32,680 Speaker 2: now is Bloomberg opinion columnist Korishma Vaswani. She has been 45 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:36,640 Speaker 2: writing about the review and its ramifications. Korrishma joins me 46 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:41,240 Speaker 2: now from Singapore. It's always a pleasure to chat with you, Korshma. 47 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 2: Can we begin by having you remind me the structure 48 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:46,239 Speaker 2: of the Auchus Pact. 49 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:50,600 Speaker 1: Well, at the heart of this arrangement was an agreement 50 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:54,960 Speaker 1: between the US, the UK and Australia that would, again, 51 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:57,960 Speaker 1: as you pointed out, signed by President Biden in twenty 52 00:02:58,040 --> 00:03:01,480 Speaker 1: twenty one, that would help Australia develop a fleet of 53 00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 1: nuclear powered submarines over a thirty year period, and it 54 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 1: would involve both the US and the UK. America would 55 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 1: provide superior technology, the UK would help Australia build these 56 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:19,120 Speaker 1: nuclear submarines. But ostensibly it was also a way to 57 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:22,880 Speaker 1: counter China's growing influence in the Indo Pacific, and at 58 00:03:22,880 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 1: the time when it was announced, China was very upset. 59 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 1: It saw it as another example of the American supremacy, 60 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 1: the desire to maintain that in the Indo Pacific, and 61 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 1: as an attempt by the United States to contain China's 62 00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 1: influence and military and naval power, which has been, as 63 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 1: we've talked about on your program before, growing rapidly over 64 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 1: the last few years. But now given that the White 65 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 1: House has come out and said that they're putting this 66 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 1: agreement under review, they're going to look at whether OCUS 67 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 1: is aligned with the President's America First Agenda. I'm quoting 68 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 1: from the Defense Department there, And you know that's really 69 00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 1: sort of making a lot of allies and partners in 70 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 1: the Indo Pacific nervous, not least the Australians themselves, who 71 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 1: are really counting on this commitment from the United States. 72 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:21,320 Speaker 2: So I know that AUCAS involves, as I said earlier, 73 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:24,159 Speaker 2: the UK, Australia, and the US, but when we think 74 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:28,080 Speaker 2: of other allies in the region, I'm thinking of Japan 75 00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 2: and South Korea, this probably would be a very concerning 76 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:34,440 Speaker 2: development to those countries as well. 77 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think it's even wider than that, because 78 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:41,039 Speaker 1: it speaks to the commitment of the United States to 79 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 1: the region. And it's really confusing, right, Doug, because you know, 80 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:47,320 Speaker 1: just a few weeks ago, at the Shangrila Dialogue, which 81 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:50,839 Speaker 1: is this regional security summit held in Singapore, you had 82 00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:54,560 Speaker 1: the US Secretary of Defense Pete Hetz talking about the 83 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:59,040 Speaker 1: US commitment to the Indo Pacific. He said that America 84 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 1: is here to stay. Chinese didn't show up this time 85 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:03,720 Speaker 1: the way they have in the past, So that was 86 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:06,960 Speaker 1: a really easy win for the Trump administration to point 87 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 1: out that Washington is really committed to this region. But 88 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:14,719 Speaker 1: it comes with a sort of transactional aspect because he 89 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:19,080 Speaker 1: also talked about the need for allies Asian partners to 90 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 1: boost defense spending. Very much what you hear from, you know, 91 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 1: the Trump administration when it talks to Europe as well, 92 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:31,720 Speaker 1: that it's like, basically, everybody needs to pay more and 93 00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:35,599 Speaker 1: this can't be the United States responsibility. And that's fine, 94 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:39,000 Speaker 1: there are reasons behind that. That's perfectly reasonable, but it 95 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 1: does feel sometimes that it's a bit of a carrot 96 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 1: and stick relationship. You know, you have to pay more 97 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:46,920 Speaker 1: or we're going to pull out of OCHUS for instance, 98 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:51,800 Speaker 1: which appears to be the undercurrent behind the rhetoric of 99 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 1: the Defense Department when it comes to this particular deal, 100 00:05:56,440 --> 00:05:58,640 Speaker 1: and I think what that does is it just you know, 101 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 1: it doesn't build goodwill, It doesn't create the kind of 102 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:04,159 Speaker 1: partnership that you need with one of your closest allies 103 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:05,240 Speaker 1: in this part of the world. 104 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 2: So, Karishma, we have seen among NATO countries a definite 105 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:12,480 Speaker 2: willingness to spend more of their GDP on military defense. 106 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:16,039 Speaker 2: I'm thinking of Germany in particular. Obviously this is tied 107 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 2: to war in Ukraine. Can you give me a sense 108 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:21,280 Speaker 2: of the willingness of the countries in the APAC has 109 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 2: spent more if we're using aucas as an example of 110 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:28,680 Speaker 2: some type of cooperation with the United States that would 111 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:33,120 Speaker 2: ultimately help these countries defend against some perceived threat that 112 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:34,200 Speaker 2: China represents. 113 00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think that's a really good point. 114 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 1: And we've seen the commitments coming through loud and clear. 115 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 1: You know, everybody from Japan to Taiwan to Australia itself, 116 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:45,839 Speaker 1: they've been talking about arming up. And you're seeing a 117 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:50,719 Speaker 1: trend across Asia for defense budgets. They've been on the rise. 118 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 1: Everybody's spending more on defense, and I think the statistic 119 00:06:54,080 --> 00:07:01,200 Speaker 1: for Australia. Currently CANBRA has military spending at about two 120 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 1: point four percent or it's on track rather to achieve 121 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:08,159 Speaker 1: that by the mid twenty thirties. But the United States 122 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:11,000 Speaker 1: wants Australia to up that to three and a half 123 00:07:11,040 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 1: percent of GDP. So, you know, it's the gap between 124 00:07:14,640 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 1: what the US wants and what is currently on offer, 125 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 1: and each country has its own sort of particular and 126 00:07:21,840 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 1: unique circumstances to be able to try and achieve that. 127 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 1: But on the whole, across the board, the Trump administration 128 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 1: I think has been quite successful in convincing Asian countries 129 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 1: that they need to spend more on defense. 130 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:38,840 Speaker 2: So how do you think this is being viewed in Beijing? 131 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:43,680 Speaker 1: Oh? I think that this makes China very happy because 132 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:46,960 Speaker 1: for the you know, on the one hand, there are 133 00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 1: now real concerns over whether ORCUS will go ahead in 134 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 1: its original form. My views that it will. I think 135 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 1: that the United States would, even given the Trump administration's 136 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:02,000 Speaker 1: transactional nature. I do not think that the White House 137 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 1: would allow this security agreement to fall by the wayside. 138 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 1: It would be problematic and possibly embarrassing. But I think 139 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:12,480 Speaker 1: that there will be compromises and concessions made on the 140 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:16,320 Speaker 1: part of the Australians who will feel compelled to do 141 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:18,800 Speaker 1: some of the things that the United States may be 142 00:08:18,880 --> 00:08:23,160 Speaker 1: asking for behind closed doors. And what that does is 143 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 1: play into Beijing's narrative that America first means other countries alone. 144 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:33,800 Speaker 1: And you know, China has consistently positioned itself as the global, sensible, 145 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:39,160 Speaker 1: rational leader in the Indo Pacific given what appears to 146 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:44,480 Speaker 1: be sort of an erratic, you know, behavior, the erratic 147 00:08:44,559 --> 00:08:47,959 Speaker 1: nature of how Donald Trump does business on the global stage. 148 00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:52,160 Speaker 1: And I think that these kinds of agreements and the 149 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:56,680 Speaker 1: reviews of these agreements just add credits to that narrative. 150 00:08:56,880 --> 00:08:59,800 Speaker 1: And even if they're not saying it publicly, because you know, 151 00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 1: the Australians have been very quick to sort of defend 152 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:07,320 Speaker 1: the review and dismiss it as just business as usual. 153 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 1: I've spoken to diplomats who've said to me, well, it's 154 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:12,720 Speaker 1: not a great look, and it does mean that countries 155 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 1: like Australia are going to have to think and are 156 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:19,679 Speaker 1: already thinking about what this means in terms of future alliances. 157 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 1: So you're going to start to see you know, Japan, Australia, 158 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:27,319 Speaker 1: South Korea coming together, maybe India as well, to sort 159 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:31,559 Speaker 1: of find a way through working without the superpowers. They 160 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:34,160 Speaker 1: can't do it completely, but I think you're going to 161 00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 1: see a lot of middle and smaller countries banding together 162 00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:42,000 Speaker 1: as it as these larger nations sort of you know, 163 00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 1: have this each country for themselves approach to global politics. 164 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 2: So imagine for a moment that the US does play 165 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 2: a diminished role in August. Can you imagine a world 166 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:55,600 Speaker 2: where the Europeans, let's say, step in to fill some 167 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 2: of that void. 168 00:09:57,640 --> 00:10:01,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, I can, and I think that been talked about already. 169 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:06,559 Speaker 1: You know, the Europeans have been in the past, certainly 170 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,960 Speaker 1: recently talking to the Australians about what kind of military 171 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:13,120 Speaker 1: engagement or any kind of you know, partnership that they 172 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 1: could work on. It would be challenging given the number 173 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:19,280 Speaker 1: of countries in Europe, but not impossible. And again, I 174 00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:21,559 Speaker 1: think these are the kinds of partnerships that we will 175 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:26,840 Speaker 1: see being formed going forward, and I think they are necessary. 176 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 1: In fact, I think they are essential because countries cannot 177 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 1: navigate this next period of what appears to be this 178 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 1: sort of you know, I hate using this word, but 179 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:42,080 Speaker 1: multipolar system. That's the nature of politics these days. And 180 00:10:42,160 --> 00:10:43,920 Speaker 1: I think they're going to have to band together in 181 00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:45,480 Speaker 1: that way, no doubt. 182 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 2: About that, Karishma. It's always a pleasure. Thank you so much, 183 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:52,720 Speaker 2: Karishma of Vaswani Bloomberg Opinion columnists joining from Singapore here 184 00:10:52,800 --> 00:11:02,160 Speaker 2: on the Daybreak Asia podcast. Welcome back to the Daybreak 185 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:05,800 Speaker 2: Asia Podcast. I'm Doug Chrisner. So, the Fed's two day 186 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:09,320 Speaker 2: meeting will wrap on Wednesday afternoon, and the Central Bank 187 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 2: is expected to hold rate steady this month and in 188 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:15,840 Speaker 2: July as well. And at the same time on Wednesday, 189 00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:20,000 Speaker 2: the Fed may telegraph its intentions through its revised economic 190 00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:23,520 Speaker 2: and rates forecast. Now, markets right now are continuing to 191 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:27,079 Speaker 2: bet on the likelihood of two quarter point rate cuts 192 00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:30,680 Speaker 2: this year, the first move perhaps fully priced in for 193 00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 2: the October meeting. Today we had yields down right across 194 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:36,719 Speaker 2: the treasury curve. And to help us take a look 195 00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 2: at what's happening in the macro and especially in the 196 00:11:39,679 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 2: fixed income space, I'm joined by Bill Campbell. He is 197 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:46,400 Speaker 2: Global bond portfolio manager at Double Line. Bill is on 198 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:49,560 Speaker 2: the line from Santa Monica, California. Bill, thank you for 199 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 2: making time to chat with me. Talk to me a 200 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:53,920 Speaker 2: little bit about the moving parts that you see in 201 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:56,800 Speaker 2: the macro right now and how they fit with the 202 00:11:56,840 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 2: inflation story, particularly as it relates to this spike that 203 00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:02,120 Speaker 2: we have seen over the last couple of days in 204 00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:02,720 Speaker 2: crude oil. 205 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 5: Doug, thanks for having me back, and you know, what 206 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:10,760 Speaker 5: a time to come back and discuss macro. There are 207 00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:17,040 Speaker 5: countervailing forces happening, you know, across the macro landscape at 208 00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:20,160 Speaker 5: the moment, and you see them playing out in the 209 00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:23,560 Speaker 5: interest rate market when we look at long term rates. 210 00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:26,600 Speaker 5: You were just mentioning the rally that we've seen today, 211 00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:29,720 Speaker 5: but if you look back, you know, just for the 212 00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 5: past month, we've seen rates rising, you know, moving ever higher. 213 00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 5: It's our view here at double Line that you know, 214 00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:43,320 Speaker 5: the that medium term pressure or the likely trajectory for rates, 215 00:12:43,520 --> 00:12:45,160 Speaker 5: especially in the long end of the curve over the 216 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:50,160 Speaker 5: next quarter, is higher. But near term we're seeing now 217 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:54,199 Speaker 5: treasuries exhibit a little bit of that flight to quality 218 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 5: or flight to safety property that they'd had in the 219 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 5: past due to the increased geo political concerns around Israel's 220 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:06,760 Speaker 5: current operation in Iran and the potential for the US 221 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 5: to potentially strike the four TOOH enrichment facility in Iran. 222 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:17,200 Speaker 5: Now that being said, the countervailing force to that rally 223 00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 5: that we saw is exactly what you alluded to, is 224 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:26,240 Speaker 5: higher oil prices. Over the past quarter we'd actually seen 225 00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:30,160 Speaker 5: oil prices falling to a local low, and just over 226 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 5: the past couple of weeks, with these rising tensions in 227 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:36,480 Speaker 5: the Middle East, oil prices have again spiked from the 228 00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:41,959 Speaker 5: low sixties up to the mid seventies. And as you know, 229 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:46,839 Speaker 5: oil prices have wide have kind of a wide reach 230 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:50,599 Speaker 5: in the way that they impact the economy and prices 231 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:54,960 Speaker 5: in general. And the concern here is that over the 232 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:57,719 Speaker 5: next couple of months, higher oil prices could lead to 233 00:13:57,760 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 5: higher gas prices, higher shipping prices, and that could put 234 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 5: upward pressure on inflation, which then would counteract some of 235 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:10,160 Speaker 5: this flight to safety that we've seen. So the balancing 236 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:13,320 Speaker 5: act that we are really watching play out in the 237 00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:18,360 Speaker 5: long end of the US treasury curve is this you know, 238 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:23,080 Speaker 5: back and forth of will increase deficits, the potential for 239 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:29,080 Speaker 5: higher inflation and h you know, the the pulling back 240 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:33,960 Speaker 5: of purchases by global central banks of treasuries pushing rates 241 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 5: higher be offset by the potential you know, flight to 242 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:41,160 Speaker 5: quality that we had seen in the past. 243 00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:44,120 Speaker 3: Uh, there's one caveat to all of this. 244 00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:49,000 Speaker 5: When the tariffs were initially announced by the Trump administration, Uh, 245 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 5: something strange happened in the long end of the interest 246 00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:54,960 Speaker 5: rate curve. We actually saw yields rise, and that was 247 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:58,360 Speaker 5: counterintuitive to the flight to safety trade that we have 248 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:02,280 Speaker 5: gotten used to over the past three decades. And you know, 249 00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 5: the return on the geopolitical concerns is another nuance that 250 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:10,720 Speaker 5: we need to separate as fixed income investors of will 251 00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:15,800 Speaker 5: the market view, you know, an upcoming hiccup to growth 252 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 5: as more of a US specific growth shock with a 253 00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:24,240 Speaker 5: US led slowdown or a global growth shock with a 254 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:28,840 Speaker 5: global growth slowdown potentially driven by the geopolitical concerns, And 255 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 5: the answer to that question will answer in the near 256 00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 5: term which way interest rates may trend. But on the 257 00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 5: long term we think that, you know, over the next 258 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:41,520 Speaker 5: several quarters, you know, to the next year, the pressure 259 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 5: still should be higher, you know, on interest rates. 260 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:46,800 Speaker 2: So we had the meeting yesterday from the Bank of 261 00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:51,480 Speaker 2: Japan and not surprisingly, the BOJ held its policy rate 262 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:55,360 Speaker 2: steady at fifty basis points. The BOJ also announced a 263 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 2: plan to begin to slow the pace of its bond 264 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:03,920 Speaker 2: market buying, the JGB purchases that the BOJ has been conducting. 265 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 2: What is your understanding of how that's going to impact 266 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:09,160 Speaker 2: the global bond market story. 267 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:16,400 Speaker 5: Yeah, So the reduction of you know, their quantitative you know, 268 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:21,680 Speaker 5: their their tapering program is not actually going to you know, 269 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:25,680 Speaker 5: be implemented until April or the second quarter of twenty 270 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 5: twenty six. The reason that they did that, though, is 271 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:34,000 Speaker 5: we had seen you know, a tremendous spike across the 272 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:39,400 Speaker 5: Japanese government bond curve, Japanese government yields, you know, rising 273 00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:42,160 Speaker 5: ever since the Bank of Japan decided to stop their 274 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:45,680 Speaker 5: yield curve control policy about a year and a half ago, 275 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 5: and you know, that's caused a lot of concern about 276 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:54,280 Speaker 5: the pass through you know, from higher yields to the 277 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 5: Japanese economy. And you know, obviously this is one step 278 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:02,560 Speaker 5: in the direction of trying to curb the pace of 279 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 5: the rise of Japanese interest rates. 280 00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:10,440 Speaker 3: But the rise of Japanese interest rates is. 281 00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 5: Happening alongside the rise in the US interest rates, the 282 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:19,359 Speaker 5: rise in long term United Kingdom interest rates. And I 283 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 5: think that this is now a global issue that all 284 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:27,960 Speaker 5: central banks and all treasuries and ministries of finance are 285 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:30,720 Speaker 5: going to have to think about and deal with going 286 00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:35,720 Speaker 5: forward that long term interest rates continue to rise, and 287 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 5: I think are rising on a secular basis. And when 288 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,880 Speaker 5: we look at the outlook for the fiscal trajectories not 289 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 5: only in the United States, but in the United Kingdom 290 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:46,879 Speaker 5: and in Japan and to a certain extent in the 291 00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:49,960 Speaker 5: European Union. When you look at countries such as France, 292 00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:54,960 Speaker 5: they have a very difficult trajectory, very difficult outlook that 293 00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:58,560 Speaker 5: is likely to put continued pressure not only on US 294 00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:01,840 Speaker 5: and Japanese interest rates, but I think long term interest 295 00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:05,520 Speaker 5: rates across the global government bond market. And that's why 296 00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:09,399 Speaker 5: at double Line, you know, we're continuing ourselves and to 297 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:12,480 Speaker 5: you know, talk to our investors about favoring more of 298 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:15,040 Speaker 5: the belly to the front end of the interest rate curves, 299 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:18,720 Speaker 5: because we still believe that interest rates between the two 300 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:20,760 Speaker 5: year and let's say the seven year or the two 301 00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:24,720 Speaker 5: year and the ten year maturities, you know, should exhibit 302 00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:27,520 Speaker 5: that flight to safety quality and you can pick up 303 00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:30,399 Speaker 5: you know, high quality gield. It's once you go to 304 00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 5: those longer tenors past ten years, that you're really starting 305 00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:38,639 Speaker 5: to deal with these long term forces that maybe you know, 306 00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 5: signifying a structural change to what we've seen over the 307 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:43,120 Speaker 5: past several decades. 308 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:45,400 Speaker 2: You know, it was only a couple of weeks ago 309 00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 2: when global bond markets were unnerved by the issues around 310 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:53,160 Speaker 2: fiscal deficits, not just here in the US, but jurisdictions 311 00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:56,320 Speaker 2: like Japan as well. And I'm curious, has the concern 312 00:18:56,960 --> 00:19:00,280 Speaker 2: over fiscal deficits really faded into the background where the 313 00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:01,880 Speaker 2: bond market is concerned. 314 00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:03,240 Speaker 3: The fiscal policy. 315 00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:05,679 Speaker 5: I think it first of all, I think when we 316 00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 5: look at markets, unfortunately, it seems that you know, markets 317 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:13,400 Speaker 5: have a difficult time trying to hold on to multiple 318 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:17,720 Speaker 5: themes at once, and you know, we focus on different themes, 319 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:20,280 Speaker 5: you know, as we move through time. And as an 320 00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:24,280 Speaker 5: example of this, uh, you know, first, you know, around 321 00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:27,400 Speaker 5: April Round Liberation Day, the main theme that we focused 322 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:31,360 Speaker 5: on was tariffs and what new US foreign policy would 323 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:34,439 Speaker 5: do to the bond markets, putting upward pressure on interest rates. 324 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 5: Then we moved over, you know, to focusing on fiscal 325 00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:41,280 Speaker 5: which has been the past month or so, uh, you know, 326 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:46,200 Speaker 5: focus for long term bond yields. Just recently, the new 327 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:49,399 Speaker 5: geopolitical concerns that popped out of the Middle East have 328 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:52,560 Speaker 5: taken the front and center focus, and I think that 329 00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:56,199 Speaker 5: is really what we're trading now. But we need to 330 00:19:56,280 --> 00:20:00,800 Speaker 5: break out as investors what is short term cyclical move 331 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:03,879 Speaker 5: which maybe move over the course of a couple of 332 00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:06,920 Speaker 5: weeks to a couple of months, versus the long term 333 00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:10,080 Speaker 5: secular move, which is the general trend that tends to 334 00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:11,919 Speaker 5: last quarters or even years. 335 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:14,880 Speaker 3: And in that respect, you. 336 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:16,520 Speaker 5: Know, we do think, you know, there may be a 337 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:19,760 Speaker 5: potential for a little bit more rally if we see 338 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:24,199 Speaker 5: the US enter into the Israeli I ran conflict with 339 00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:27,840 Speaker 5: the bunker buster bomb to try to you know, address 340 00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:32,160 Speaker 5: the Iranian fourtoh enrichment facility. That may cause a little 341 00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:34,040 Speaker 5: bit more near term flight to safety. 342 00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:36,400 Speaker 3: But over that longer term, the. 343 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 5: Structural quarterly or yearly trend, we tend to think that 344 00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:44,480 Speaker 5: the forces that we discussed are likely to keep you know, 345 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:49,600 Speaker 5: upward pressure on interest rates. And that's you know, until 346 00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:52,720 Speaker 5: unless and until we see a break a change in 347 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 5: fiscal policy. In broad central bank policy, central banks again 348 00:20:57,119 --> 00:21:01,000 Speaker 5: are stepping back from their purchases, which is is removing 349 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:05,920 Speaker 5: a price insensitive buyer from the market and allowing interest 350 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 5: rates to rise and we need more clarity around our 351 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,760 Speaker 5: long term inflation forecast as we discuss there's lots of 352 00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:16,600 Speaker 5: questions about tariff pass through and energy price passed through. 353 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:20,520 Speaker 5: Until those bigger questions are answered, we think that the 354 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:22,840 Speaker 5: longer term trend of interest rates. 355 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:23,720 Speaker 3: Is still higher. Bill. 356 00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:25,560 Speaker 2: Before I let you go, let's talk a little bit 357 00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 2: about what's going on the dynamic and the currency market 358 00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:31,240 Speaker 2: right now. You mentioned the have in trade and perhaps 359 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:34,320 Speaker 2: the idea that the US treasuries would be a beneficiary. 360 00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:37,680 Speaker 2: I'm imagining that the dollar would be a beneficiary as well. 361 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 2: Certainly that's what today's price actions seem to indicate. And 362 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:46,080 Speaker 2: frequently the end is a beneficiary of haven buying as well, 363 00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:48,560 Speaker 2: but that didn't really seem to be playing out today. 364 00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:51,160 Speaker 2: How is everything that you're kind of laying out there 365 00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:54,560 Speaker 2: connected to foreign exchange? 366 00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:57,879 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think the dollar is probably a front and 367 00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:01,280 Speaker 5: center for most investors right now. Discuss you know that 368 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:05,440 Speaker 5: piece in just a little bit more detail. After Liberation Day, 369 00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 5: we've seen, you know, well, really after the president, the 370 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:13,000 Speaker 5: new President Trump came into office, and then especially after 371 00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:18,040 Speaker 5: the Liberation tariff, you know, announcements, we've seen a pretty 372 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:21,440 Speaker 5: aggressive move lower in the dollar. There have been a 373 00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:24,000 Speaker 5: lot of reports that this has been foreign you know, 374 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,760 Speaker 5: foreigners starting to dump their large investments in the US, 375 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:32,560 Speaker 5: but I have really not seen significant evidence that that 376 00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:35,840 Speaker 5: is the case. In fact, what I think has been 377 00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:39,160 Speaker 5: happening is, yes, there's been a large amount of foreign 378 00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:41,920 Speaker 5: investment in the US, but a lot of that investment 379 00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:46,560 Speaker 5: was left unhedged up until this year because hedges are expensive. 380 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:50,000 Speaker 5: So for the first couple of quarters of this year 381 00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:54,919 Speaker 5: where the dollar came down you know, about nine ten percent, 382 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:59,199 Speaker 5: I think that was more reflective of foreigners increasing the 383 00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:02,439 Speaker 5: hedges that they had on their dollar investment, and I 384 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:06,280 Speaker 5: think that is now roughly played out. Now the theme, 385 00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:10,200 Speaker 5: the macro theme is now switching from uncertainty about US 386 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:17,240 Speaker 5: policy to uncertainty about global growth. So with increased geopolitical risk, 387 00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 5: now the uncertainty is shifted. 388 00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 3: From the US to the globe. 389 00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:25,640 Speaker 5: And if that continues, I can see a near term 390 00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:28,520 Speaker 5: upward pressure you know on the dollar. 391 00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:29,359 Speaker 3: You know. 392 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,520 Speaker 5: Again, in this let's call it two week to a 393 00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:38,000 Speaker 5: couple of months cyclical trend, but ultimately we believe a 394 00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:42,399 Speaker 5: double line that the secular trend has started with the dollar. 395 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:45,879 Speaker 5: Over the next couple of years is likely to trend lower. 396 00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:51,000 Speaker 5: And the idea really underpinning this is that the massive 397 00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:54,240 Speaker 5: amount of foreign savings that's come into the United States 398 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:58,240 Speaker 5: over the past three decades, which the BEEA now estimates 399 00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:01,320 Speaker 5: as of the end of four q TWEO the latest 400 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:05,560 Speaker 5: data available at sixty two trillion of foreign savings or 401 00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:08,000 Speaker 5: foreign investment in the United States. 402 00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:12,480 Speaker 3: You know, that is an overweight position, and. 403 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 5: We think some of that can start to unwind, that 404 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:20,680 Speaker 5: there will be portfolio diversification of that back towards home countries. 405 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:24,359 Speaker 5: And then secondly, we think that the idea that the 406 00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:27,920 Speaker 5: dollar is going to you know, continue to be the 407 00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:32,040 Speaker 5: main unit that underpins global trade, we think that that 408 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,600 Speaker 5: is also going to continue to erode, as we've already 409 00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:40,119 Speaker 5: seen it evidenced by central banks now signing memorandums of 410 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 5: understanding between each other to settle trade between their countries 411 00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:49,520 Speaker 5: and their own currencies. So, for example, why should Australia 412 00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:53,800 Speaker 5: and Singapore need the US dollar to settle trade between 413 00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:58,520 Speaker 5: those two countries. In fact, they should, as developed economies, 414 00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:02,080 Speaker 5: accept each other's current see which they now are, and 415 00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:06,840 Speaker 5: over time, their reserve currency baskets are going to reflect 416 00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:12,480 Speaker 5: that increasing the holdings of each other's currencies while simultaneously 417 00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:15,320 Speaker 5: decreasing the holding of the dollar. So for those two 418 00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:19,480 Speaker 5: structural reasons, we think that over time, the trend of 419 00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,480 Speaker 5: the dollar on the long term basis, you know, should 420 00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:25,960 Speaker 5: continue to trend down even but near term we first 421 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:29,280 Speaker 5: need to get through the you know, near term geopolitical 422 00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:32,040 Speaker 5: risks that may cause a little bit of this flight 423 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:36,199 Speaker 5: to safety reversal in the dollar higher just over you know, 424 00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:37,240 Speaker 5: the very near term. 425 00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:39,400 Speaker 2: Bill will leave it there. Thank you so very much. 426 00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:42,440 Speaker 2: Bill Campbell there. He is Global bond portfolio manager at 427 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:45,840 Speaker 2: Double Line, joining from Santa Monica, California. Here on the 428 00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:51,280 Speaker 2: Daybreak Asia Podcast. Thanks for listening to today's episode of 429 00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:55,440 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, we look 430 00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:59,240 Speaker 2: at the story shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in the 431 00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,560 Speaker 2: Asia Pacific. You can find us on Apple, Spotify, the 432 00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:06,600 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere else you listen. Join 433 00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:09,679 Speaker 2: us again tomorrow for insight on the market moves from 434 00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:14,119 Speaker 2: Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia. I'm Doug Prisoner and 435 00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:15,480 Speaker 2: this is Bloomberg