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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and

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Speaker 1: editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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Speaker 1: global business finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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Speaker 1: Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: Hey takes kind of pointing out there's a great writing

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Speaker 2: and story on that Cisco Splunk deal today. It says

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Speaker 2: the deluge of data.

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Speaker 3: I got to give Charlie Pellett the credit here. He's

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Speaker 3: the one who told us this.

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Speaker 2: He did. Charlie like sick.

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Speaker 3: He's left, but I think we love you Charlie.

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Speaker 2: Well, Charlie, we love you all right. So, if the

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Speaker 2: daylus of data in the modern world is increasingly overwhelming,

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Speaker 2: Splunk claims to have been ready for it for twenty years.

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Speaker 2: The company's name reflects the act of burrowing deep down

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Speaker 2: into the earth to explore caves, the adventure of data splunking.

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Speaker 2: And so Charlie, of course just talked about this. We're

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Speaker 2: talking about this because Cisco did its biggest ever deal

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Speaker 2: and it bought Splunk.

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Speaker 3: Twenty eight billion dollars for a company that was started

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Speaker 3: by three friends back in two thousand and three. The

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Speaker 3: co founder and ex chief CEO of Yahoo, drawing on

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Speaker 3: his past or should say ex chief executive officer, drawing

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Speaker 3: on his past building search engines at Yahoo.

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Speaker 2: We just talked with him.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's really cool.

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Speaker 2: It's a very cool company.

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Speaker 3: Right yeah.

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Speaker 2: Does it make sense for Cisco?

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Speaker 4: I don't know.

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Speaker 3: Cisco shares her down more than three point nine percent

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Speaker 3: right now?

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Speaker 2: All right, so let's get into it. Because they're pay

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Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty seven dollars a share in cash,

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Speaker 2: thirty one percent premium to spunks closing price yesterday, and

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Speaker 2: the purchase represents roughly ten percent of Cisco's market value.

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Speaker 2: That feels like a lot with us. Is Bloomberg Intelligence

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Speaker 2: Senior Technology Alice wu Jinho. He's down Zoom from BI

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Speaker 2: headquarters in Princeton, New Jersey. Wugen, thank you for being

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Speaker 2: back with us. You described the deal as the moby

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Speaker 2: Dick of deals that's been talked about for quite some time.

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Speaker 2: Tell us more and what it means for Cisco.

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Speaker 5: Sure, so, I think you characterize it fairly well.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 5: This blog actually borrows really deep and trying to fairly

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Speaker 5: understand an enterprise's data. If you think about where all

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Speaker 5: the data traffic flows through it has to go through

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Speaker 5: a one of Cisco's boxes. So Cisco is trying to

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Speaker 5: help their users and customers better understand the data that

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Speaker 5: goes through their boxes. And now they can monetize the

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Speaker 5: information that goes to their boxes buyers, plug deal.

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Speaker 3: Okay, So explain what that means for, you know, someone

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Speaker 3: like me. Carol's also I can think in this campcter,

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Speaker 3: she's looking like, Okay, what's going on here?

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Speaker 2: Well, why does Cisco need this? Is it just a

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Speaker 2: case of making everything more secure? And that's crucial?

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Speaker 5: Well, it's it's all about network visibility, right, I don't

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Speaker 5: know what is going through point A to point B

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Speaker 5: if they're good guys, are bad guys.

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Speaker 4: Going in point A to point b?

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Speaker 5: Or even something a little bit more benign, such as

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Speaker 5: how much YouTube is going through my network or how

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Speaker 5: much social media is going through my network? And you

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Speaker 5: want to better.

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Speaker 2: Doing this before? Forgive me for interrupting, but wasn't Cisco

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Speaker 2: doing this before? Wujin or no?

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Speaker 5: They were?

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Speaker 4: They are, okay, right?

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Speaker 5: The issue is is that they just they want to

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Speaker 5: better understand the better data traffic patterns that are going there.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 5: Now the challenge for Cisco has been is how do

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Speaker 5: they make a software deal large enough or the software

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Speaker 5: business large enough to make it more meaningful as part

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Speaker 5: of the business transformation. And that's one of the reasons

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Speaker 5: why they made this deal. It's it was a business

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Speaker 5: decision as much as a technology decision.

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Speaker 3: How do you explain this price? This is quite the premium,

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Speaker 3: thirty one percent premium to the closing price on Wednesday,

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Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty seven dollars a share, ten percent

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Speaker 3: roughly of Cisco's market value. Cisco shares down close to

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Speaker 3: four percent right now. How do you explain the deal size?

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Speaker 5: Well, I'm actually quite comfortable with the deal size. Get

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Speaker 5: if we walk away from the actual twenty eight billion

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Speaker 5: dollars on the largest deal that Cisco's ever made. Cisco

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Speaker 5: rarely does large software acquisitions. They've made small software acquisitions

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Speaker 5: and try to tuck it in. What they've learned is

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Speaker 5: that it hasn't been successful in driving what they want

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Speaker 5: to do on the recurring revenue side. They needed to

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Speaker 5: pay up a software evaluation and if you look at

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Speaker 5: if you will look at traditional software M and A metrics,

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Speaker 5: this Splunk is going at six times forward sales and

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Speaker 5: faster growth. Software companies typically go anywhere between eight times

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Speaker 5: to twelve times sales, So you know, you're getting a

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Speaker 5: lot of good value from the sense of recurring revenue base,

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Speaker 5: which is something that Cisco has been trying to trying

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Speaker 5: to grow over the last couple of years. And you're

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Speaker 5: getting different with Plunked. You're getting a high margin software

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Speaker 5: revenues and you're getting that from splunk And you know,

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Speaker 5: one of the things one of the reasons why Cisco

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Speaker 5: could not get into the software business was because everything

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Speaker 5: was just so darn expensive back in the pandemic days.

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Speaker 5: And now they found the window with evaluations coming down.

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Speaker 3: So explains the share price reaction from Cisco right now.

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Speaker 3: And granted we're having a down day across the board

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Speaker 3: for tech companies, not that much, but not very much.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, fair question. So so was running the math

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Speaker 5: and it's actually the deal is going to be deluded

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Speaker 5: for the first year by about two to three percent,

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Speaker 5: So that's going to that's going to explain that a

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Speaker 5: little bit. That's one number two. You know, when I

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Speaker 5: was listening to the conference call earlier this morning, I

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Speaker 5: think some of the analysts wanted a faster growth software

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Speaker 5: company with more modern network architecture. The one criticism about

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Speaker 5: Splunk is that they still cater to the legacy older

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Speaker 5: technology and making that transition to modern clouds and and

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Speaker 5: it's a slog right. These these transitions don't happen overnight.

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Speaker 5: These are multi year transitions. But for Cisco that's okay

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Speaker 5: because they still have a lot of customers on older

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Speaker 5: technologies also trying to make this move to the modern cloud. So,

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Speaker 5: you know, Splunk will give them a little bit more growth,

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Speaker 5: faster growth, about about one hundred two hundred basis points,

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Speaker 5: and they get the software that they want, you know.

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Speaker 5: I mean, if we look at it from a growth perspective,

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Speaker 5: Splunk is growing at around twelve percent based on Contensus

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Speaker 5: forecast at Cisco is growing at one percent next year,

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Speaker 5: a steady state five percent. So it's a win win

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Speaker 5: for both companies.

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Speaker 2: Do we need to see Splunk CEO Gary Steele stay

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Speaker 2: with the company. Is that crucial important in your view?

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Speaker 4: In the interim?

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Speaker 5: Yes, If we think about where Splunk is going to

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Speaker 5: sit in the Cisco ecosystem, we're talking about roughly eight

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Speaker 5: percent of total revenue, and it's going to be five

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Speaker 5: times the existing software revenue the observisibility piece, right, So

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Speaker 5: they'll need somebody to help manage the integrations I suspect,

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Speaker 5: and also help the Cisco salesforce who will need to

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Speaker 5: wrap up really quickly on selling the Plunk products.

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Speaker 2: I know you don't say to our audience. Yeah, this

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Speaker 2: means it's the reason to buy or sell Cisco. But

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Speaker 2: does it make Cisco a more attractive company? Because I

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Speaker 2: think they've been working in a transformation of sorts and

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Speaker 2: maybe trying to be more relevant.

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Speaker 5: Right, and and thanks thanks for that disclaimer. The one thing,

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Speaker 5: the one thing that I can say is that what

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Speaker 5: I've noticed from other hardware companies that have made this

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Speaker 5: transition from perpetual sales to recurring revenue sales, that should

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Speaker 5: that could drive evaluation expansion, multiple expansion because of the

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Speaker 5: reliability of cash flow.

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Speaker 6: MM.

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Speaker 3: Do you think Cisco's done making acquisitions for a while.

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Speaker 6: Oh?

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Speaker 5: I don't think they're done making acquisitions.

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Speaker 4: You know.

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Speaker 5: What I've what I do think they'll do is try

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Speaker 5: to digest Blunk and make several smaller acquisitions around it,

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Speaker 5: whether it's adding more semiconductor technology or some hardware technology,

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Speaker 5: or or even more software technology. But maybe in the

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Speaker 5: one hundred of millions instead of the billions.

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Speaker 2: But this is one that moves the financial needle correct

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Speaker 2: for the company, for Cisco and building some business exactly.

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Speaker 5: So if we think about it from a software revenue perspective,

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Speaker 5: I said, it's five times there. They're five times the

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Speaker 5: size of their existing enterprise software base. But the overall

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Speaker 5: software mix is now going to go to roughly about

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Speaker 5: thirty five percent of total sales. And that's a good thing.

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Speaker 2: Hey really quickly forgot totally spaced fifteen seconds. Any regulatory

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Speaker 2: problems with this one really quickly.

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Speaker 5: Nope, very little China business. It's going to go through

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Speaker 5: one percent overlap.

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Speaker 4: No issues.

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Speaker 3: That was quick as can. You shall receive nope.

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Speaker 2: You listen, man, I love it, Love it. Bloomberg Intelligence

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Speaker 2: senior technology analyst. We didn't joining us on zoom from

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Speaker 2: BI headquarters in Prince, New Jersey, Wojdin, Thank you so much.

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Speaker 2: And as to mention, Cisco shares under pressure, no surprise,

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Speaker 2: though often as the acquirer, it's also in a down market.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app,

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Speaker 1: or want us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: All right, we are going to take it to the bank.

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Speaker 2: We're going to take it to a bank CEO who's

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Speaker 2: going to give us some clarity. My fingers crossed in

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Speaker 2: terms of what's going on. We're definitely seeing the effects

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Speaker 2: of the FED move. We just talked about it. But

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Speaker 2: let's get right to our guests.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, very please start back with us founder, chairman and

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Speaker 3: CEO of Connect One Bank, Frank Sorrentino. Connect One Bank

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Speaker 3: has about two dozen locations in New York, New Jersey,

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Speaker 3: and Florida, and Frank joins us this afternoon from New

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Speaker 3: York City. Frank, good to have you with us. I

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Speaker 3: don't know to what extent you were able to catch

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Speaker 3: the tail end of our conversation there where it kind

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Speaker 3: of gave away all the questions that I wanted to

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Speaker 3: ask you, but I want to dive right into it.

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Speaker 6: I mean, thank you, thank you for that preview.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, no problem, But we do love it when you join

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Speaker 3: us because you guys have such a great read on

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Speaker 3: the economy. So let's start big picture here. What are

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Speaker 3: you seeing right now? In September of twenty twenty three,

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Speaker 3: when the markets are in turmoil, rates are high. Give

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Speaker 3: us an idea of what you're seeing at your locations

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Speaker 3: around the country.

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Speaker 6: Look, I think there's some anxiety relative to the direction

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Speaker 6: of interest rates. I do think that what we saw

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Speaker 6: and heard yesterday is that rates are going to be

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Speaker 6: at these levels for at least the foreseeable future, the

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Speaker 6: next couple of quarters. And I think that there needs

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Speaker 6: to be some clarity about the direction of rates. People

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Speaker 6: are holding back doing things because they think maybe rates

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Speaker 6: will be lower. Other folks are concerned if rates are

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Speaker 6: going to go higher. And so the idea that the

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Speaker 6: Fed pretty much said, we're sort of where we are

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Speaker 6: and we're probably going to stay here for a while,

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Speaker 6: I think gives a little bit of clarity to the

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Speaker 6: environment that we're in. The vast majority of our clients

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Speaker 6: and our business owners are still optimistic. They're still doing transactions.

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Speaker 6: You know, builders are still building, developers are still developing.

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Speaker 6: There's still a lot of opportunity in the market. Everybody

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Speaker 6: still has a job. Everybody's comfortable that they're going to

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Speaker 6: keep their job or that they can move to a

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Speaker 6: different job. And I think that level of optimism continues

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Speaker 6: as we move forward. There is now a cost of

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Speaker 6: money that has to be imputed in every transaction, and

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Speaker 6: I heard a little bit about that before, and I

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Speaker 6: think that's really the important part. People can still do things,

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Speaker 6: you just have to include what is going to be

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Speaker 6: the cost of the transaction to do with.

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Speaker 3: Okay, so are people are still Are people still taking

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Speaker 3: out mortgages?

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Speaker 6: Yes, people are still taking out mortgages despite what you're

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Speaker 6: you know what what was said before. I think people

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Speaker 6: are still buying homes. We are woefully under built in

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Speaker 6: this country, and certainly in this market where some one

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Speaker 6: point five million homes short. And so every builder that

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Speaker 6: we represent when they put product on the market today,

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Speaker 6: it's selling, and so I'm very optimistic about that. Rentals

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Speaker 6: are still staying strong. Every project that we've gotten behind

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Speaker 6: relative to financing in the multifamily space is renting up

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Speaker 6: as soon as it's completed.

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Speaker 1: Wow.

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Speaker 6: So a lot of good indications out there, all right.

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Speaker 2: The devil's in details, and sometimes it's like nanometers that

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Speaker 2: gives you an idea of maybe a new trend being built. So, Frank,

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Speaker 2: are you seeing any signs of softness stress? Concerns, defaults,

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Speaker 2: maybe you know terms being renegotiated. Give us an idea,

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Speaker 2: because again, the devil is going to be in those

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Speaker 2: small minute details for us to kind of figure out

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Speaker 2: if we start to see a change.

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Speaker 6: Look, we've certainly seen that our group of clients are

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Speaker 6: being much more thoughtful about various projects, transactions, or business

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Speaker 6: opportunities because because of that added cost of financing and

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Speaker 6: so the volume of things is certainly down. I can

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Speaker 6: definitely report to you that. And so we're seeing that

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Speaker 6: not just hear connect one, but we're seeing that across

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Speaker 6: the industry. Lending for the most part has slowed down

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Speaker 6: quite a bit, and that will make its way through

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Speaker 6: the economy, which is something which the FED is actually

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Speaker 6: engineered to happen. So we are seeing a level of

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Speaker 6: people thinking about things in a very different way, adding

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Speaker 6: that cost of funding, thinking about whether or not certain

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Speaker 6: things make sense and things there are things that made

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Speaker 6: sense in a zero interest rate environment or a two

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Speaker 6: percent interest rate environment that don't make sense today off

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Speaker 6: the table. Look, any transaction that you would look at,

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Speaker 6: even a builder who's going to develop a project today,

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Speaker 6: the cost of money requires that project to have a

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Speaker 6: different outcome, a different sales price, a different rental pro forma,

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Speaker 6: and certain projects don't pencil out, others do, and the

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Speaker 6: ones that do, there's money available for them, and they're

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Speaker 6: continuing to move ahead and do those things.

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Speaker 3: Frank, give us an update on deposits. I mean, we're

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Speaker 3: in an environment I've said at you know, a dozen

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Speaker 3: times today where money market funds are yielding over five percent.

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Speaker 3: You've got some high interest savings accounts at some upstart

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Speaker 3: banks that are yielding close to five percent. I think

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Speaker 3: City has some sort of promo at five point five

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Speaker 3: percent for six months if you put like, you know,

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Speaker 3: one hundred grand over there or something. It's like, what

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Speaker 3: are deposits looking like for you guys right now?

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Speaker 6: So again, you know, we're mostly a commercial institution, and

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Speaker 6: so we cater to the vast majority of businesses and

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Speaker 6: small businesses, and we are seeing deposits tightening up a bit.

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Speaker 6: People have a little bit less liquidity on their balance

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Speaker 6: sheets today, and that's what's causing the competition, again engineered

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Speaker 6: by the FED. All the qualitative easing that was brought

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Speaker 6: to market in twenty twenty is now being let out

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Speaker 6: of the economy through qualitative tightening and so there's less

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Speaker 6: deposits to go around. Deposits are the fuel for banks

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Speaker 6: to make loans, and so there's heightened competition amongst banks,

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Speaker 6: amongst non banks, money market funds, all the various actors

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Speaker 6: that you mentioned before. That's driving up that cost to

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Speaker 6: banks and a benefit to individuals who are either opening

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Speaker 6: accounts or investing money, and that's having an impact on

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Speaker 6: the economy as well. So yes, we could get into

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Speaker 6: an economics lesson here. Where M two declined for the

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Speaker 6: first time a few months ago, it has flattened out recently.

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Speaker 6: I do believe the FED is going to take their

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Speaker 6: foot off the accelerator pedal there a little bit and

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Speaker 6: allow some additional liquidity in the system so they don't

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Speaker 6: break anything, and so we do have a soft landing.

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Speaker 6: But I do believe that competition for deposits, which I

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Speaker 6: think is the question you asked, is going to continue

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Speaker 6: for the foreseeable future.

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Speaker 2: Hey, Frank, remind us is it sixty percent of your

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Speaker 2: portfolio commercial? I know you said most you're really commercial

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Speaker 2: is about some.

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Speaker 6: Percentage commercial small businesses all different types of businesses in

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Speaker 6: and around the New York metro.

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Speaker 2: So I am curious how much of that portfolio, of

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Speaker 2: those portfolio of loans is coming due anytime soon and

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Speaker 2: is going to have to reap potentially at higher rates.

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Speaker 2: And are you seeing any stranger stresses in that portfolio.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, it's a it's a fairly small amount that come

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Speaker 6: doe every quarter or even on an annual basis. We

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Speaker 6: have a fair amount of fixed loans. We also have

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Speaker 6: loans that reprice obviously on a variable rate basis. With

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Speaker 6: the underwriting that we've done here at Connect One Bank,

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Speaker 6: we've always included an interest rate shock and so the

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Speaker 6: vast majority of the loans as they're coming do or

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Speaker 6: well within that well within those parameters relative too.

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Speaker 2: So no calls from small businesses saying hey listen, Frank,

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Speaker 2: are to your team and saying we're having a little

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Speaker 2: bit of a tough time. We need we need some

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Speaker 2: help here. We've been with banking with you for years.

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Speaker 2: What are you going to do for me?

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Speaker 6: Well, I will tell you that everyone is making the call, okay,

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Speaker 6: but the question is are they really struggling or not.

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Speaker 6: We're seeing, you know, at the same time that we're

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Speaker 6: seeing interest rates go up, we've also seen inflation push

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Speaker 6: up the pricing of everything. So if we look at

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Speaker 6: restaurant receipts, they're up, maybe not because of more people

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Speaker 6: seated there, but we're seeing that the average price per

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Speaker 6: meal has gone up. If we look at rent roll incomes,

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Speaker 6: they're up because rents have gone up, so that there

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Speaker 6: has been a move up and pricing for everything. And

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Speaker 6: I think that's important for people to keep in mind.

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Speaker 6: It's not just the interest rate component that has driven

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Speaker 6: up the price of the right thing.

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Speaker 4: A new stream also gone up.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you talk to landlords and you know they're saying

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Speaker 3: the price of insurance has shot up so much that

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Speaker 3: they've got to raise the rent in a commensurate way,

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Speaker 3: and they.

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Speaker 6: Are raising the rents right. We're seeing rents across the

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Speaker 6: New York metro market are up somewhere in the thirty

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Speaker 6: thirty range over the last two and a half to

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Speaker 6: three years.

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Speaker 3: Frank, we only got thirty seconds left. You have a

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Speaker 3: branch in West Beach, and you have branches throughout New

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Speaker 3: York and New Jersey. Where's the economy strongest right now?

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Speaker 3: Based on your branches?

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Speaker 6: I still say the New York metro market. Don't you

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Speaker 6: know anyone who tries to discount that market. Don't bet

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Speaker 6: against New York. Florida is doing really well for us

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Speaker 6: at Connect one, but don't bet against the New York market.

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Speaker 2: Got a word to describe the economy right now and

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Speaker 2: just got ten seconds. I still think it's robust, robust,

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Speaker 2: all right, right, listen, we were looking forward to talking

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Speaker 2: with you. It's like the perfect guest the day after

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Speaker 2: the FED. Frank Sarentino, b while Founder and CEO of

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Speaker 2: Connect One Bank on zoom in New York City.

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Speaker 7: This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen

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Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: All right, So the rollout of the latest COVID vaccines,

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Speaker 2: they are underway beginning. I believe last Friday you got

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Speaker 2: Pfizer Maderna recommended for those six months and older. So

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Speaker 2: we wanted to really kind of get I know, people

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Speaker 2: who are going out and getting them, but we wanted

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Speaker 2: to get some clarification for everybody about the latest strain

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Speaker 2: in the vaccines and kind of what we should be doing.

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Speaker 3: Tim very pleased to have with us. Doctor William Moss,

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Speaker 3: Professor of Epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins at Bloomberg School

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Speaker 3: of Public Health that is supported by Michael R. Bloomberg,

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Speaker 3: Founder of Bloomberg LP man at Bloomberg Philanthropy. He's also

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Speaker 3: executive director of the International Vaccine Access Center. Doctor Moss

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Speaker 3: joins us on Zoom from Baltimore. Good to have you

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Speaker 3: with us. I was surprised last week to see the

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Speaker 3: news from the vaccine makers saying that they expect twenty

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Speaker 3: four percent uptake for this vaccine the COVID won at least,

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Speaker 3: which is actually higher than it was in previous boosters.

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Speaker 3: What do you make of that number?

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Speaker 8: Yes, thanks Tim for having me. I mean it's disappointing

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Speaker 8: but probably realistic. We know that of individuals who receive

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Speaker 8: the primary series, only seventeen percent overall receive the by

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Speaker 8: veil and booster. That proportion was much higher in the

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Speaker 8: highest risk group, which is a good thing in those

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Speaker 8: older than sixty five years of age, but was still

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Speaker 8: only about forty three percent. So unfortunately, I think people

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Speaker 8: have gotten tired. There's a lot of misinformation about the

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Speaker 8: COVID nineteen vaccines, and so I think that probably is

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Speaker 8: a realistic expectation. I hope we do better than that.

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Speaker 3: Do people who are not in high risk groups actually

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Speaker 3: need to get vaccinated against COVID nineteen.

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Speaker 8: Yes, it's an important question to ask, and I think

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Speaker 8: are There are three reasons why people would want to

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Speaker 8: get these updated COVID nineteen vaccines. You know, the first

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Speaker 8: is to prevent illness in themselves. And we know that

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Speaker 8: within the month after vaccination, when antibiote levels are highest,

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Speaker 8: people are really protected against getting infection, or if they

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Speaker 8: do get infect they get a very mild disease. We

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Speaker 8: know that that protection against severe disease, particularly hospitalization and death,

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Speaker 8: lasts much longer months, even perhaps a year or longer.

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Speaker 8: So the first reason is to get protected against disease,

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Speaker 8: and even in individuals who are younger and healthy, it

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Speaker 8: can be very disrupting to have a severe, you know,

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Speaker 8: an illness that puts you in bed for several days,

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Speaker 8: you miss work, you miss school. The second reason is

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Speaker 8: that there's increasing evidence that the vaccines can prevent long

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Speaker 8: COVID and so even individuals who have mild infection, can

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Speaker 8: go on to get long COVID, which is a complex

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Speaker 8: disease with multi different, multiple different signs and symptoms. The

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Speaker 8: third reason is to protect those around you from getting

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Speaker 8: infection or getting severe disease, particularly those who are most

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Speaker 8: vulnerable and also infants younger than six months of age

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Speaker 8: who aren't eligible for vaccination.

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Speaker 2: So doctor Moss, is it a yes, yes, and yes,

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Speaker 2: go get it? Essentially?

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Speaker 8: I think so I can understand and that there is

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Speaker 8: some controversy about this, you know, particularly you know, let's

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Speaker 8: say children six six years to seventeen years of age

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Speaker 8: healthy and particularly if they've had the primary vaccine vaccination

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Speaker 8: series or if they've had COVID before, they're going to

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Speaker 8: have immunity. They're a very low risk of severe disease.

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Speaker 8: But I think you know, what this updated COVID vaccine

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Speaker 8: does is that it targets the omicron variants that have

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Speaker 8: been circulating recently. We know there's cross reactivity and cross

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Speaker 8: protection from laboratory work against the current circulating strains. So

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Speaker 8: I would say I would say it is yes, yes, yes,

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Speaker 8: and yes. But I can understand why people are asking questions,

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Speaker 8: particularly young young people who are who are healthy.

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Speaker 2: All right, there is there a certain group that you

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Speaker 2: should say absolutely, yes, you shouldn't even hesitate.

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Speaker 8: Yes, for sure, you know older adults, and where you

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Speaker 8: draw that line is somewhat arbitrary. But you know, people

441
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:15,000
Speaker 8: are going with sixty five years and older, they're going

442
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:18,879
Speaker 8: to be at highest risk of severe disease, hospitalization, and death,

443
00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 8: even if they've had a prior vaccination. There at higher risk,

444
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:26,359
Speaker 8: particularly those older than seventy five years of age, and

445
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:29,919
Speaker 8: obviously those with underlying medical conditions that play placed them

446
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 8: at high risk, particularly those who are who are you know,

447
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:35,320
Speaker 8: suppressed for various reasons.

448
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 3: What about kids? Should kids get the vaccine? I mean

449
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:41,160
Speaker 3: I got to tell you. Before the vaccine was available

450
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:43,320
Speaker 3: half my son was three, so he wasn't able to

451
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 3: get it. He ended up getting a last September at

452
00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:47,679
Speaker 3: the vaccine. But before he got the vaccine, he got COVID.

453
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,399
Speaker 3: When my whole family got COVID, he basically had a

454
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:53,359
Speaker 3: fever for a half hour and then was totally fine

455
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 3: after that.

456
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,960
Speaker 8: Yes, I mean, I mean so obviously the CDC recommended

457
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:03,080
Speaker 8: these up data COVID vaccines for children six months of

458
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 8: age and older. And uh, you know it will provide

459
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:11,880
Speaker 8: additional protection. Again, as we were saying, they're they're young.

460
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:16,959
Speaker 8: Uh uh, you know, young children, children who are otherwise healthy,

461
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 8: who've been received the primary series before, they're definitely at

462
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:24,920
Speaker 8: lower risk. So you know, we want to prioritize those

463
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 8: who are at higher risk, but I think everyone can

464
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 8: potentially benefit. We we have seen children hospitalized. I've seen

465
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 8: children hospitalized you know who otherwise Well, it's rarer. The risk,

466
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:41,720
Speaker 8: you know, the probability of that is much smaller, there's

467
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 8: no doubt about that. But there there is a risk

468
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 8: never nevertheless, and these updated COVID vaccines can provide protection.

469
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:51,439
Speaker 3: What's more important if you could only get one of

470
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:53,679
Speaker 3: these vaccines for a kid, the flu vaccine or the

471
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:54,640
Speaker 3: COVID vaccine.

472
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:58,399
Speaker 8: Yeah, that's a that's an interesting question. And uh, you know,

473
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,400
Speaker 8: it's hard to predict a little bit what the epidemiology

474
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:05,399
Speaker 8: is going to be in this coming season. You know,

475
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:11,679
Speaker 8: the risk of long COVID, I think is an important one. Also,

476
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 8: children have had before with COVID nineteen, a multi inflammy

477
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:24,159
Speaker 8: inflammatory syndrome that can also be quite debilitating. So in

478
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 8: my mind, you know, some of the some of the

479
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:30,920
Speaker 8: adverse events or at impact of the disease may be

480
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:34,080
Speaker 8: worse with covid, but it's that's a hard trade off.

481
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:37,720
Speaker 2: Crip well. Having said that, so then what about flu

482
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:41,359
Speaker 2: covid RSV vaccine for kids? What do you choose?

483
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:46,480
Speaker 8: Yeah, so the RSV vaccines that were just recently authorized

484
00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:49,440
Speaker 8: and recommended are really for adults older than sixty years

485
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 8: of age, so they're the ones who are going to

486
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 8: be eligible for the for the two new RSV vaccines.

487
00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:59,480
Speaker 8: That decision, the way it's kind of written by the

488
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,800
Speaker 8: CDC is that it should be done in consultation with

489
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:06,360
Speaker 8: the physician, where there where there's a discussion about the risk,

490
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 8: the benefits and or pros and cons of that. So

491
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 8: for children it will be a decision of UH, you

492
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 8: know COVID and UH an influenza vaccine. And you know,

493
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 8: I think it's quite easy when when a person goes

494
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:26,360
Speaker 8: to to get one vaccine to get both. All experts

495
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:29,679
Speaker 8: recommend you know, that they could be given simultaneously, the

496
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:33,880
Speaker 8: COVID and the influenza vaccines. So I would I would

497
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:36,000
Speaker 8: recommend that everyone get both.

498
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:38,480
Speaker 2: I think my husband might have done a trifecta. I'm

499
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:39,360
Speaker 2: not quite sure.

500
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:42,160
Speaker 3: For him, he should get a sticker you can?

501
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:44,879
Speaker 2: Can you do it? And is it okay to do

502
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 2: it all in one shot? No pun intended?

503
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think you know, there's we We don't really

504
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 8: there's not a lot of evidence of administering the new

505
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 8: RSV vaccines with other vaccines, and particularly with the COVID

506
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 8: vaccine and influenza. I don't see any theoretical reason why

507
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,119
Speaker 8: you couldn't do it, but I know some experts are

508
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 8: saying to space them out. And one way to kind

509
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 8: of think about it is, you know, what are the

510
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 8: infections that we're seeing now, what are the infections that

511
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 8: are likely to you know, come sooner. We are seeing

512
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:20,120
Speaker 8: RSV cases now, not as much influenza, so maybe get

513
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:23,680
Speaker 8: the RSV earlier, But we want people to get the

514
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:28,320
Speaker 8: COVID vaccine and the influenza vaccines probably by mid October latest.

515
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:32,360
Speaker 3: All right, are you markam mccount I emailed the doctor yesterday, Yeah,

516
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:34,120
Speaker 3: to ask about the kids. You know, it's like, when

517
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:36,119
Speaker 3: do we go in to get the flu vaccine? Is

518
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:39,200
Speaker 3: it too early to do that? And he wrote back, no,

519
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:41,800
Speaker 3: it's not too early anytime before October, especially with our

520
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 3: youngest who's just over six months. She's now eligible for flu,

521
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:47,439
Speaker 3: but she has to get a vaccine, a flu vaccine

522
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:49,720
Speaker 3: booster after four weeks, so you have to spread it

523
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 3: apart by four weeks.

524
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:54,159
Speaker 2: Well, doctor Moss, you really gave us some things to

525
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:57,520
Speaker 2: think about in some clarify clarity clarification. Excuse me. So

526
00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 2: was so appreciated, Doctor Bill Moss. He's Professor of Epidemiology

527
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 2: at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, of course,

528
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:08,159
Speaker 2: supported by Michael R. Bloomberg founder, Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropy.

529
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:10,879
Speaker 2: He's also doctor Moss that is executive director of the

530
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:14,160
Speaker 2: International Vaccine Access Center. So, man, he's like the guru.

531
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 3: You know what's good is when you take your kids

532
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 3: to the pediatrician. Sometimes you can get a fluid shot

533
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:20,240
Speaker 3: there too. They'll give you the kids they have them.

534
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 4: I do it.

535
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 3: Yeah.

536
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

537
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:29,920
Speaker 1: live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

538
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business App and YouTube. You can also listen

539
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

540
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

541
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 2: What's Really Been interesting this week is you know, we've

542
00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 2: been talking about it. The You and General Assembly has

543
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 2: been in session this week alongside New York Climate Week,

544
00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 2: which means we've had some really cool people hanging out

545
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:54,959
Speaker 2: with us, catching up with companies and institutions that are

546
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 2: working on the world's most significant issues.

547
00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 3: To him, Yeah, one of those people is Tara Nathan,

548
00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:02,480
Speaker 3: founder and leader of MasterCard Community Pass. It's a digital

549
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 3: platform that enables the delivery of what it calls critical

550
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 3: services to remote, frequently offline communities. She joined us on

551
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 3: Zoom in New York City. Good to have you with

552
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 3: us this afternoon.

553
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:14,720
Speaker 9: Thank you for having me.

554
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:17,959
Speaker 3: Okay, so, explain what exactly you guys are doing at

555
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 3: MasterCard with Community Pass, who it's reaching, and how you

556
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 3: choose those locations.

557
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 9: Sure, so, I mean around the globe, in many communities,

558
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:31,480
Speaker 9: across Africa, across India, Southeast Asia, and even frankly in

559
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 9: Latin America. In our own backyard there is there are

560
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:39,720
Speaker 9: billions of people who live in communities that are completely

561
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 9: offline at best in the best of circumstances, they'll have

562
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:49,360
Speaker 9: intermittent mobile connectivity, often no power at all. And what

563
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 9: that means is that these are communities that frankly, are

564
00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 9: precluded from getting access to basic services that you and

565
00:29:56,960 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 9: I take for granted, things like access to car, things

566
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 9: like the ability to make a digital transaction, the ability

567
00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 9: to purchase something online, right, and so billions of people

568
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 9: around the globe lack, you know, the capability to do this,

569
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 9: and so Community Paths seeks to solve for this, provides

570
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 9: the digital infrastructure in these communities to reach people where

571
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 9: they're at.

572
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 2: You know, it's interesting, Tara, and you head to your

573
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 2: website and you guys remind us that there's one point

574
00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:31,720
Speaker 2: seven billion people in the world that do not have

575
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 2: a bank account, something we all take for granted, right,

576
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 2: but you know most people are a lot of people

577
00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 2: do not, and then you've got almost half of the

578
00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 2: world today struggling to meet their basic needs, whether it's food, education,

579
00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:45,000
Speaker 2: basic healthcare. It's something that Tim and I we look

580
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 2: for guests to talk about, you know, what's going on

581
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 2: in the broader world, the developing world, because it's very different,

582
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 2: certainly to what we experience here in New York City,

583
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:56,040
Speaker 2: although there are people whos struggling here, also in major cities,

584
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 2: certainly in developed world as well. But tell us about

585
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 2: how long you guys have around and the impact you

586
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 2: have had.

587
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,840
Speaker 9: Sure, well, actually I'll just build on the point that

588
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,240
Speaker 9: you make. I mean, we talk about your right financial

589
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:10,560
Speaker 9: inclusion and sort of the billions that lack access to

590
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:14,720
Speaker 9: something like a bank account. I think it would be

591
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 9: maybe a surprise to some of your listeners that there

592
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 9: are billions. There's over a billion people on this globe

593
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 9: who lack access to something as fundamental as an identity.

594
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 9: So imagine what that means. It means you and I

595
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 9: have multiple identities in our wallets. Right, We've got a school, idea,

596
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 9: work ID, you've got a bank ID, you've got several

597
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 9: credit cards, hopefully they're all MasterCards. You've got several you know,

598
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 9: you've got all kinds of identification. There are over a

599
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 9: billion people around the globe who lack something as simple

600
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:45,959
Speaker 9: as the ability to say, my name is Tara Nathan,

601
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:48,160
Speaker 9: I live at this street and this is what I'm

602
00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:51,720
Speaker 9: entitled to. And if you want to think about a

603
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 9: digital identity, that number can be north of three point

604
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 9: four to three and a half billion people. Right, So

605
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 9: when you think about where we look to focus our efforts,

606
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 9: it's really in those communities it's the communities where there

607
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:13,720
Speaker 9: is no access to a foundational identity, a digital identity,

608
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 9: and where the communities predominantly are transacting in offline communities.

609
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 9: You know, these are communities typically where people are farmers,

610
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 9: small holder farmers, so they maybe have a hector or

611
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:32,880
Speaker 9: two hectors of land, right, isn't the.

612
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 3: So I just we don't have a ton of time,

613
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:35,560
Speaker 3: so I want to I just want to get a

614
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 3: couple a couple more questions. But I'm wondering about mobile

615
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 3: phones and technology. And you know, we've talked a lot

616
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 3: this week about leap frogging technology because you know, you

617
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 3: can go to places now with satellite technology, with mobile

618
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 3: phone technology, and you can have your bank on your

619
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 3: mobile phone. So weren't mobile phones supposed to to fix this?

620
00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 3: And doesn't you know and even even flip phones.

621
00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 2: Right, And we've been talking about this for years, yea

622
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:03,000
Speaker 2: this idea like yeah, right, Like there's a lot of

623
00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:03,680
Speaker 2: phone companies.

624
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 3: Phone companies are increasingly you know, you have places in

625
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 3: Africa where phone companies are doing banking.

626
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:11,719
Speaker 9: Yeah, no, You're spot on, And there are there's a

627
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:13,800
Speaker 9: I think when you look at mobile banking and you

628
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 9: look at mobile phones they've done a great job I

629
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:19,640
Speaker 9: think at leap frogging and giving many communities access to

630
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 9: to to banking services, et cetera. And yet still there

631
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 9: are billions that I talk about who are still left,

632
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 9: you know, disconnected and without access to the most fundamental

633
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 9: service like an access to a credit or a bank account,

634
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 9: or health services, education markets, et cetera.

635
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 2: I guess what I guess we would love to get too,

636
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:42,320
Speaker 2: is is what is it? Are we making progress? Tell

637
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 2: us about what you guys have been doing and maybe

638
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 2: getting people so that they do have the identity they

639
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 2: can be part of this system. And I'm curious about

640
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:52,800
Speaker 2: where it's working or is it a lot of women?

641
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:55,080
Speaker 2: You know, I remember with micro loans, doing tons of

642
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:58,760
Speaker 2: stories twenty twenty five years ago about you know, a

643
00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 2: small amount of money would be given to a woman

644
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 2: because it made a difference in a family's lives life.

645
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 2: If you will, so just a little bit about kind

646
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 2: of the progress you have made and what it tells you.

647
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 9: We're making great progress. I'd say, Look, we started I mean,

648
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:15,279
Speaker 9: we started out less than I'd say, you know, three

649
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 9: to four years ago, we're already crossing We've crossed three

650
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:22,359
Speaker 9: point eight million. We're coming on four million users on

651
00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:25,560
Speaker 9: the platform. And when I say a four million users,

652
00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:28,760
Speaker 9: what I'm talking about is again a small holder farmer.

653
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:31,719
Speaker 9: Talk about what the benefit is somebody who earns a

654
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 9: dollar or two dollars a day. That's the person we're

655
00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 9: trying to service here, and what we're doing is we're

656
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:40,439
Speaker 9: getting her access. In many markets, the majority of these

657
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:44,440
Speaker 9: farmers are actually our women, and we're giving her access

658
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 9: to five dollars of credit because she's now connected digitally

659
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:51,760
Speaker 9: to a bank. We're giving her five dollars of credit

660
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 9: so she can purchase seeds to plant them, to purchase fertilizer,

661
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 9: to purchase pesticides, so that she can increase her productivity

662
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:02,399
Speaker 9: of her land, which is very important you know, sort

663
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:05,439
Speaker 9: of in the climate and the sustainability conversations we're having

664
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:09,319
Speaker 9: now in Ungum, and we're doubling her income and I

665
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:11,440
Speaker 9: think that's the impact that we're trying to do. We're

666
00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:14,640
Speaker 9: trying to look at how can digital technology make that

667
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 9: small holder farmer get paid more and faster so that

668
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:21,359
Speaker 9: she can include, you know, expand and increase her sort

669
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:22,360
Speaker 9: of economic outlook.

670
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 3: Are you know, I hear what you're doing and the

671
00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:30,200
Speaker 3: sort of like cryptosceptic and comes out in men. There's

672
00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:32,080
Speaker 3: going to be a crypto element, I mean, because the

673
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 3: crypto people say, hey, blockchain fixes all this. Are you

674
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:36,879
Speaker 3: guys leveraging blockchain tech at all?

675
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 2: And just got about twenty five seconds?

676
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 9: Okay, Look, the technology is not the hard part here, right,

677
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 9: So whether you talk about crypto or blockchain or whatever.

678
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 2: What we're really doing.

679
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:50,360
Speaker 9: The hard part of what we're doing is building the

680
00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:53,799
Speaker 9: ecosystem that serves this farmer, and that is crowding in

681
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:56,719
Speaker 9: the buyers and the input manufacturers and the bankers and

682
00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 9: the ag techs and the health text That's the difficult

683
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:02,279
Speaker 9: work that we're doing. So we're out in about six

684
00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:04,799
Speaker 9: markets now around the globe, like I said, crossing four

685
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:08,360
Speaker 9: million users and crowding in all these actors to service

686
00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:09,400
Speaker 9: this small hold of plumb.

687
00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 2: Well, Tara look forward to hearing more updates in the

688
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 2: future and appreciate time. And I know it is a

689
00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:16,960
Speaker 2: busy week for you all. Tarnet Nathan, she's founder and

690
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:20,799
Speaker 2: leader of MasterCard Community Pass joining us on Zoom in

691
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:37,879
Speaker 2: New York City. This is Bloomberg. So do you think

692
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:39,759
Speaker 2: that's Bed's dreaming a little bit when it comes to

693
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:43,880
Speaker 2: a soft landing. They're definitely not their base case no,

694
00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 2: But are they drinking a little bit of the kool aid?

695
00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:47,719
Speaker 4: Look?

696
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:49,919
Speaker 3: They only have so much that's in their control, I guess.

697
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:51,480
Speaker 3: So there's a lot happening right now.

698
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:54,359
Speaker 2: Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summer is telling the host

699
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 2: of Bloomberg TV's Wall Street Week, David Weston, that the

700
00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:58,800
Speaker 2: FED has got the memo and caught the soft landing bug.

701
00:36:59,880 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 3: The US central big policymakers are too optimistic with their

702
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 3: latest set of economic projections and are at risk of

703
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 3: being surprised by both faster inflation and weaker growth than

704
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:09,359
Speaker 3: they anticipate.

705
00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 2: Which is why this story about the Fed's dream of

706
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 2: a soft landing facing a triple threat definitely caught our attention.

707
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 2: We talked about it earlier with our TV colleagues in

708
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 2: our simulcast. It is a most read story in The Bloomberg.

709
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:20,480
Speaker 2: It's in the new issue of BusinessWeek, now out on newsstands,

710
00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 2: online at Bloomberg dot com, slash BusinessWeek on the Bloomberg.

711
00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:27,720
Speaker 2: So let's get to it. Bloomberg News Global Economy Reporter

712
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 2: and a current with us on zoom in our Washington

713
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:32,919
Speaker 2: DC Bureau and the editor of Bloomberg Business Wee Child Weber.

714
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:35,680
Speaker 2: Here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio, the Grimlins are

715
00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:37,399
Speaker 2: out in full force. I'm just going to tell you.

716
00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:41,120
Speaker 7: Yeah, warning, I could take a little bit more aerosmith though,

717
00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:42,960
Speaker 7: Like that was that was a good start. That was

718
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:43,520
Speaker 7: a good start.

719
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:43,799
Speaker 4: Yeah.

720
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 7: So yeah, look, this was a really important week and

721
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:54,080
Speaker 7: this soft landing that the FED has wanted to pull

722
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:57,640
Speaker 7: off like it look for a moment, like it might happen.

723
00:37:57,760 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 7: Where does this stand?

724
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:00,200
Speaker 4: Didn't it? Yeah?

725
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:02,080
Speaker 10: So, look, things have been a bit giddy in DC

726
00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:03,960
Speaker 10: for the past few weeks. Right, The data has been

727
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:06,080
Speaker 10: very good. The economy is in much better shape than

728
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:08,840
Speaker 10: anyone's thought. But now there's the kind of feeling just

729
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:12,400
Speaker 10: when you thought it was safe, we have this unprecedented

730
00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 10: auto strike in Michigan, which really has significant potential for disruption.

731
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:18,839
Speaker 10: You potentially have the government going to shut down that's

732
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:19,919
Speaker 10: probably expected.

733
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:20,240
Speaker 4: In a few weeks.

734
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 10: And of course you have students now repaying those loans

735
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:24,960
Speaker 10: they that had been kind of on hold for the

736
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 10: last several years due to the pandemic that's going to

737
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:29,320
Speaker 10: hit their consumer income. So it's kind of a triple

738
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 10: threat has suddenly come out of nowhere. You know, just

739
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 10: when you thought it was safe that the US had

740
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:36,000
Speaker 10: pulled off is unlikely self landing. We've got these potentially

741
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:38,080
Speaker 10: serious head winds now and it's causing some people maybe

742
00:38:38,080 --> 00:38:39,840
Speaker 10: to pause a little bit on some of the a

743
00:38:39,840 --> 00:38:41,960
Speaker 10: as I say, some of those giddiest expectations that were

744
00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:42,480
Speaker 10: going around.

745
00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 7: Okay, So which of those three threats is potentially the

746
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 7: most serious for the for the Fed's ability to pull

747
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:53,040
Speaker 7: this off.

748
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:54,920
Speaker 4: It's got to be the car strike.

749
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:59,360
Speaker 10: So if that goes full pedal to the floor, so

750
00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 10: to speak, you're talking about obviously your potential about a

751
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:05,720
Speaker 10: major hit to unemployment. You could even see the monthly

752
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:07,960
Speaker 10: payrolls number turn negative on.

753
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:08,399
Speaker 4: The one hand.

754
00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:11,800
Speaker 10: On the other hand, it would obviously really complicate the

755
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:15,279
Speaker 10: supply chain story just when car prices, at least new

756
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:17,360
Speaker 10: car prices and US car prices are coming off. The

757
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:21,320
Speaker 10: boil a bit obviously will have potentially inflatory impact there,

758
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:24,040
Speaker 10: and so much so in fact, that if we do

759
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:25,719
Speaker 10: have a full bore or auto strike, you could be

760
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:28,320
Speaker 10: talking about a negative quarter or fourth quarter for growth

761
00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 10: for the economy. So the auto strike is front and center.

762
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:34,720
Speaker 10: And then of course you have the government strike. People

763
00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:36,560
Speaker 10: take different views on how that might play out, but

764
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:39,120
Speaker 10: it would have certainly in your term impact. And then

765
00:39:39,160 --> 00:39:42,600
Speaker 10: of course there's a student only payment, which obviously impacts people,

766
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:45,680
Speaker 10: saying the disposed to lincome they have lifts men.

767
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 2: And I have to say that one of the numbers

768
00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:50,839
Speaker 2: that stood out in your story is, you know, to

769
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:55,400
Speaker 2: remind everybody that there's about fifteen hundred striking UAW workers

770
00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:58,800
Speaker 2: right now, but if it goes to the entire UAW

771
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:03,040
Speaker 2: UAW excuse me, it's one hundred and fifty thousand members,

772
00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 2: that's significant. And then, as you say, the trickle down

773
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:09,600
Speaker 2: into supply chain problems. People can't cars, you know, get cars.

774
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 2: So what are economists how are they kind of strategizing

775
00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:18,960
Speaker 2: around the potential impact of this all.

776
00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 10: They're gaming it out. I mean a lot will depend

777
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:24,280
Speaker 10: on how these scenarios play out. As we say, maybe

778
00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:27,040
Speaker 10: the union strike remains somewhat targeted, so to speak, and

779
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 10: maybe they reach a deal in the near term and

780
00:40:29,640 --> 00:40:32,640
Speaker 10: the economic damage is limited. But the longer it goes

781
00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:36,480
Speaker 10: on and the broader that strike gets, then more material

782
00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:39,759
Speaker 10: that hit will be to the economy. No question about it.

783
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:41,440
Speaker 10: It's a bit it's a kind of similar story for

784
00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 10: the government shutdown. People say, oh, look, a government shut

785
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:46,239
Speaker 10: down for a few days won't have that much of

786
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:48,880
Speaker 10: an impact. But given their polarized things are in Washington,

787
00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 10: if it remains shut down for quite a while, starts

788
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 10: the impact flow of economic data, starts the impact consumer

789
00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 10: and business sentiment that will have any impact as well.

790
00:40:56,120 --> 00:40:57,879
Speaker 10: And by the way, the other point that we flick

791
00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:00,160
Speaker 10: at is don't forget what's happening with oil. Prime is

792
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:02,520
Speaker 10: at the moment as well, all heading back towards a

793
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 10: hundred dollars a barrow. Some talk could go even higher

794
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:08,759
Speaker 10: than that. That's inflation on the one hand, but of

795
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:10,759
Speaker 10: course the other hand, it's the taxing consumers as well,

796
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:13,279
Speaker 10: So that's going to be a clear factor. So as

797
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:15,000
Speaker 10: I say, just when you thought it was safe that

798
00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:17,200
Speaker 10: the US had pulled off, is very likely soft landing.

799
00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 10: Suddenly there's quite a few headwinds on the horizon heading

800
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:20,839
Speaker 10: into the end of the year.

801
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:25,439
Speaker 7: Okay, so if we've got this many headwinds, how likely

802
00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:27,239
Speaker 7: is lanning? And what do we call it?

803
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:28,719
Speaker 3: You haven't even mentioned all the headwinds either.

804
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 2: See high Joe's voice like that.

805
00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:37,440
Speaker 10: I think, look, the odds are for now right here,

806
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:39,880
Speaker 10: and now the others are still on for there's a

807
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 10: lot of soft landing than no landing, right because the

808
00:41:43,360 --> 00:41:46,160
Speaker 10: US economy is in great shape, and obviously nobody's advocating

809
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 10: in recession, and nobody wants to see significant job losses,

810
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 10: and so far fed and managed get inflation well off

811
00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:55,960
Speaker 10: the ball without doing that. But we're there's a there's

812
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:58,360
Speaker 10: a view now that they're going into the really hard model.

813
00:41:58,640 --> 00:42:01,240
Speaker 10: Things get much more complicated from here, like, for example,

814
00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:03,960
Speaker 10: do they choose to raise industrates again at how will

815
00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:05,719
Speaker 10: that flow down to people who live you know, munthpi

816
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:08,200
Speaker 10: mounting credit cards? How to flow down to small businesses

817
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:10,440
Speaker 10: who have a lot of variable rate loans? For example,

818
00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:13,880
Speaker 10: the household sector on fixed rate loans aren't overly impacted,

819
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:15,719
Speaker 10: but there is a part of the business and a

820
00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 10: consumer world that will be getting hurt. So we're getting

821
00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:21,200
Speaker 10: into complicated part of this now. Raising rates when inflation

822
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:24,239
Speaker 10: was running away, it's kind of a no brainer, but

823
00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:25,440
Speaker 10: it gets a lot trickier from here.

824
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:28,360
Speaker 3: What about the restart end of student loan payments next month?

825
00:42:29,680 --> 00:42:30,439
Speaker 4: It's going to hurt.

826
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:33,319
Speaker 10: It's definitely going to hurt I mean, there's a view

827
00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 10: that perhaps that will be quite staggered. You know, not

828
00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:38,520
Speaker 10: everyone who has a student loan will start paid immediately.

829
00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:41,479
Speaker 10: It'll be sort of grandfather over time, so to speak.

830
00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:44,360
Speaker 10: But the columns will say to you, that's taking a

831
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:46,920
Speaker 10: lump out of people's pockets right at the time when

832
00:42:46,920 --> 00:42:49,000
Speaker 10: everything else is already expensive with the inflation storry, with

833
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 10: the indus rate story, so it's going to hurt consumption.

834
00:42:51,719 --> 00:42:54,400
Speaker 3: But well, sorry is there is there also, though, the

835
00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:58,439
Speaker 3: view that if people are spending more money paying back

836
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:01,480
Speaker 3: these loans, then they're not spend as much money on

837
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:05,520
Speaker 3: services and goods, so actually it's not inflationary.

838
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:09,080
Speaker 10: Sure, I mean for the student loan repayment you're talking

839
00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:11,240
Speaker 10: about like to hit the consumption, hit the growth, because

840
00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:13,239
Speaker 10: you just have less money in your pocket if you're

841
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:15,799
Speaker 10: paying back alone. I mean, our economists and along here

842
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 10: makes a point that if it wasn't for the militarium

843
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:21,880
Speaker 10: on the student loan repayments, all of the right hikes

844
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:23,799
Speaker 10: of twenty twenty two would already be having a much

845
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:26,440
Speaker 10: bigger pinch on that part of the economy.

846
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:32,640
Speaker 7: Yeah, okay, okay, wait, so how do we how does

847
00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:34,960
Speaker 7: Powell feel about.

848
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:35,359
Speaker 1: All of this?

849
00:43:37,000 --> 00:43:42,799
Speaker 10: They seem to feel pretty Look, yeah, he's listening. I

850
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 10: think he's I think he's a scenting being. You heard yesterday.

851
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:48,920
Speaker 10: I mean he Look, he made the point yesterday. He

852
00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:51,440
Speaker 10: was very got maybe a little bit prickly when he's

853
00:43:51,440 --> 00:43:53,920
Speaker 10: getting questioned about the whole soft landing story, but he

854
00:43:54,000 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 10: made it clear that it's their objective. He didn't understand

855
00:43:57,120 --> 00:43:59,879
Speaker 10: any viral headlines yesterday about the FED doesn't want to soft.

856
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:02,279
Speaker 10: He's he wants to do everything he can, and that's

857
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:04,440
Speaker 10: why they're going to be very careful, careful from here,

858
00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:06,640
Speaker 10: as we dubbed him in our top live blog yesterday,

859
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:08,719
Speaker 10: and mister careful, he doesn't.

860
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:10,359
Speaker 4: Want he knows he's going to get more complicated in.

861
00:44:10,320 --> 00:44:12,080
Speaker 10: Here, and he doesn't he knows he has a chance

862
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:14,600
Speaker 10: of pulling off a very lucky soft landing, and that's

863
00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:16,480
Speaker 10: why the FED had been careful. But if I've just

864
00:44:16,560 --> 00:44:19,560
Speaker 10: at one point, our economist and a wong random numbers,

865
00:44:19,560 --> 00:44:23,440
Speaker 10: and she noted that since since the nineteen eighties, that

866
00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:26,520
Speaker 10: every time there's been consensus for the US to pull

867
00:44:26,560 --> 00:44:29,560
Speaker 10: off soft landing, it's been followed by a recession.

868
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 4: So that's that's the damn part of this.

869
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:39,279
Speaker 2: It's like, have a great evening, everybody say, it's six

870
00:44:39,320 --> 00:44:41,200
Speaker 2: minutes for ended to cheer us up. What don't you

871
00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:43,200
Speaker 2: feel like as soon as everybody's on board with okay,

872
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:46,759
Speaker 2: we've got a soft landing, wait, bad news exactly like

873
00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:49,200
Speaker 2: as soon as everybody jumps all on board. So you know,

874
00:44:49,239 --> 00:44:51,719
Speaker 2: it's interesting. Jim Bowler talked with our Mike McKee and

875
00:44:52,200 --> 00:44:54,960
Speaker 2: he thinks rates need to rise further because he's concerned

876
00:44:55,000 --> 00:44:58,200
Speaker 2: about strong growth. And I keep wondering, is there though,

877
00:44:58,239 --> 00:45:00,399
Speaker 2: then the chance listening to what you're saying in about

878
00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:04,920
Speaker 2: these you know this trifecta of risks and that ultimately

879
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:07,720
Speaker 2: the FED does overdo it and we get a hard landing.

880
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:12,280
Speaker 10: So they're cyllinder territory where they feel they have to

881
00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:15,600
Speaker 10: push boring costs higher. Right, Because you know, there was

882
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:17,600
Speaker 10: a bit of a little bit of a scare on

883
00:45:17,680 --> 00:45:19,960
Speaker 10: the most recent inflation data going in the wrong direction.

884
00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:23,800
Speaker 10: There's a feeling among econments that, you know, what happens

885
00:45:23,800 --> 00:45:26,120
Speaker 10: if we do get a real abs of the inflation

886
00:45:26,160 --> 00:45:27,960
Speaker 10: story that it does rebounds that have FED are not

887
00:45:28,080 --> 00:45:31,280
Speaker 10: declaring mission accomplished and you know, even if they don't

888
00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:34,880
Speaker 10: hike rates again, what they are saying is they're certainly

889
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:37,680
Speaker 10: not going to be cutting rates anytime soon, right if

890
00:45:37,719 --> 00:45:39,480
Speaker 10: you look at the forecast that they put out yesterday,

891
00:45:39,520 --> 00:45:42,280
Speaker 10: In fact, they're going to be keeping rates up towards

892
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:45,040
Speaker 10: that in the high fours at least for you know,

893
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:49,320
Speaker 10: for the next several years anyway. So yeah, like I

894
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:50,719
Speaker 10: keep saying from the beginning, it's going to get a

895
00:45:50,719 --> 00:45:52,680
Speaker 10: lot more complicated from here now, because if you have

896
00:45:52,680 --> 00:45:55,239
Speaker 10: a situation where the growth is slowing but inflation is

897
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:57,840
Speaker 10: still sticky, and the FED can't bring down interest rates,

898
00:45:58,239 --> 00:45:59,960
Speaker 10: that's going to make a soft landing all the harder.

899
00:46:00,000 --> 00:46:02,480
Speaker 2: I ask you, though, could it be below trend growth?

900
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:05,520
Speaker 2: And then it kind of doesn't feel so great? So

901
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:09,480
Speaker 2: you know, maybe, you know, do technically get this recession?

902
00:46:10,360 --> 00:46:12,600
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean people talk about rolling recessions. Me and

903
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:16,319
Speaker 10: Ediardenny up in Boston, who coined the bond visual anity term.

904
00:46:16,400 --> 00:46:18,600
Speaker 10: He's talking about some person of the economy or already

905
00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:19,240
Speaker 10: in recession.

906
00:46:20,120 --> 00:46:21,040
Speaker 4: It just doesn't show.

907
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:22,920
Speaker 10: Up in the aggregate data, right, So maybe parts of

908
00:46:23,000 --> 00:46:26,560
Speaker 10: manufacturing sector for example. But on the other hand, though,

909
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:28,960
Speaker 10: you know, you see retail analysts saying the holiday shopping

910
00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:30,880
Speaker 10: season is still going to be very strong. They're not

911
00:46:30,880 --> 00:46:33,320
Speaker 10: seeing any sort of a pullback from consumers.

912
00:46:33,880 --> 00:46:36,080
Speaker 4: So it is a good news story for the US

913
00:46:36,160 --> 00:46:36,440
Speaker 4: right now.

914
00:46:36,480 --> 00:46:38,719
Speaker 10: You have to be very clear and that it's remarkable

915
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:42,480
Speaker 10: that it's gotten this far despite all the expectations and

916
00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:44,839
Speaker 10: despite what the FED have done, raising and straights by

917
00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:48,120
Speaker 10: over five percentage points. That's unprecedented, you know, over just

918
00:46:48,160 --> 00:46:50,680
Speaker 10: over a year long period, and things have held up

919
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:53,240
Speaker 10: very well, and so it's a it's a good news story.

920
00:46:54,000 --> 00:46:57,120
Speaker 4: I'm just here until you dropped that little.

921
00:46:58,560 --> 00:46:58,719
Speaker 2: Eight.

922
00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:01,920
Speaker 1: So when are we going to know? I?

923
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:05,520
Speaker 7: You know what the next when's your next draft?

924
00:47:05,560 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 3: To he just he just finished this one?

925
00:47:09,600 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 10: Who do seem to be kind of an omen of

926
00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:16,640
Speaker 10: doom since I arrived in the US, by the way,

927
00:47:16,680 --> 00:47:19,319
Speaker 10: with several of my pieces. But no, I think over

928
00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:21,320
Speaker 10: the next six months we're going to get a clearer

929
00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:23,239
Speaker 10: picture and how things are going because you know, you've

930
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:24,840
Speaker 10: got all these near term headwinds. We'll see how that

931
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:27,200
Speaker 10: works out. We'll see where the inflation story goes. We'll

932
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:29,480
Speaker 10: see if industrates have to go up again. You turn

933
00:47:29,560 --> 00:47:32,560
Speaker 10: into new year, then where's oil gone? Or how's a

934
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:34,839
Speaker 10: global economy going. I think if you know the earlier

935
00:47:34,840 --> 00:47:37,200
Speaker 10: with the next year, we'll probably decide the self landing story.

936
00:47:37,600 --> 00:47:40,240
Speaker 3: Okay, And there's still some stuff that could go right though.

937
00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:44,160
Speaker 3: Maybe the auto strike gets averted the worst of it.

938
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:49,040
Speaker 3: Maybe maybe it's only its first know things could get

939
00:47:49,080 --> 00:47:51,120
Speaker 3: worse tomorrow, but they could get better before, you know,

940
00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:53,560
Speaker 3: than in the next government doesn't shut down. Maybe the

941
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:56,080
Speaker 3: government doesn't shut and figure it out. Yeah, and I

942
00:47:56,120 --> 00:47:58,560
Speaker 3: know now that I'm saying this out loud, I'm like, Okay,

943
00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:02,960
Speaker 3: last happen, But what's the what's the flip side of

944
00:48:03,120 --> 00:48:04,120
Speaker 3: this argument that you make?

945
00:48:04,160 --> 00:48:14,600
Speaker 10: And no, all of that could be true, right and yeah, yeah,

946
00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:16,920
Speaker 10: but but you know, one thing to think about is

947
00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:20,239
Speaker 10: whatever deal comes out of the auto workers strike, right,

948
00:48:20,360 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 10: we'll set a precedent for all of the other smaller

949
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:26,239
Speaker 10: businesses and that supply chain. All those workers in the

950
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:28,040
Speaker 10: autosply channel be going wait a minute. The guys on

951
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:29,640
Speaker 10: the plant down the road are getting paid x y

952
00:48:29,680 --> 00:48:31,440
Speaker 10: z now and they're having their conditions x y z.

953
00:48:31,680 --> 00:48:33,920
Speaker 10: There's a feeling that this will have a multiplier effect

954
00:48:34,239 --> 00:48:36,759
Speaker 10: for other you know, factories, So there might be an

955
00:48:36,760 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 10: infacial story out of it. But look to your point

956
00:48:38,760 --> 00:48:41,520
Speaker 10: thinks things could sill go well those scenarios we've talked about,

957
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:44,440
Speaker 10: it might play out on the upside, and the Infatian

958
00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:46,480
Speaker 10: story might continue to receive the way it husband, which

959
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:48,640
Speaker 10: has been very good. And then broadly speaking, yes, the

960
00:48:48,719 --> 00:48:51,239
Speaker 10: US continues to be in that goldilocks position that is

961
00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:52,239
Speaker 10: into next year.

962
00:48:52,480 --> 00:48:55,080
Speaker 3: Notice Joel, how I didn't say maybe we won't have

963
00:48:55,080 --> 00:48:57,600
Speaker 3: to pay back our student loans. Yeah, because there are

964
00:48:57,719 --> 00:48:59,520
Speaker 3: some things that are certain in life going to be.

965
00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:03,319
Speaker 7: I think we're gonna be writing about this a lot yet.

966
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:07,759
Speaker 7: And I think how these three things evolved. I think

967
00:49:08,000 --> 00:49:10,160
Speaker 7: I think we're in for a little bit of pain here,

968
00:49:11,920 --> 00:49:15,399
Speaker 7: So you know, I wanted to just bring it back

969
00:49:15,400 --> 00:49:18,240
Speaker 7: to that. How is this going to show up for

970
00:49:18,239 --> 00:49:20,000
Speaker 7: for consumers? Do you think in depth?

971
00:49:21,160 --> 00:49:23,160
Speaker 10: Keep and eye this holiday shopping season. It will be

972
00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:26,160
Speaker 10: interesting to see if if the FED does go ahead

973
00:49:26,200 --> 00:49:29,960
Speaker 10: with another right hug on this side of Thanksgiving our

974
00:49:30,120 --> 00:49:33,520
Speaker 10: Christmas time does not really start to hurt consumers who

975
00:49:33,520 --> 00:49:35,560
Speaker 10: they start pulling, pulling their spending, that would be a

976
00:49:35,560 --> 00:49:37,480
Speaker 10: really important signal. I think so far they've held up

977
00:49:37,480 --> 00:49:39,480
Speaker 10: pretty well on the way that is so watch that

978
00:49:39,640 --> 00:49:41,719
Speaker 10: and also keep an eye on the global backdrop. You know,

979
00:49:41,920 --> 00:49:44,759
Speaker 10: China's in the fun because we know maybe it's botting out,

980
00:49:44,760 --> 00:49:47,040
Speaker 10: but it hasn't been a great year for Europe is

981
00:49:47,080 --> 00:49:50,440
Speaker 10: certainly under pressure, the big industrial economies of Germany for example.

982
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:51,440
Speaker 4: All of that's not a.

983
00:49:51,400 --> 00:49:54,880
Speaker 10: Good demand story for the US either, so you know

984
00:49:54,920 --> 00:49:56,880
Speaker 10: there's a domestic story, and and keep an eye on

985
00:49:56,880 --> 00:49:58,600
Speaker 10: what's going on around the rest of the world as well.

986
00:49:58,760 --> 00:50:02,520
Speaker 2: Hey, listen, dark and telling us that wealthy dinners are

987
00:50:02,560 --> 00:50:04,480
Speaker 2: already trading down a cheaper wine.

988
00:50:04,239 --> 00:50:06,280
Speaker 3: Because they spend all their money in Europe over the summer.

989
00:50:06,640 --> 00:50:10,600
Speaker 2: So we're already seeing pressure on the pocketbook. And thank

990
00:50:10,600 --> 00:50:14,040
Speaker 2: you so much. We so appreciated Bloomberg News Global Economy

991
00:50:14,040 --> 00:50:16,319
Speaker 2: reporter and a current joining us on zoom in or

992
00:50:16,360 --> 00:50:18,879
Speaker 2: Washington DC Bureau. Of course, the editor of Bloomberg Business Week,

993
00:50:18,960 --> 00:50:21,520
Speaker 2: Jill Weber, here in our studio self landing.

994
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:26,799
Speaker 3: What do you think, Joel, looking unlikely? I mean, look

995
00:50:26,800 --> 00:50:28,399
Speaker 3: at the markets today, look at the markets this.

996
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:30,919
Speaker 2: Week, and people are talking even higher right in terms

997
00:50:30,920 --> 00:50:32,719
Speaker 2: of the rate and environment. Yeah, that maybe we haven't

998
00:50:32,719 --> 00:50:35,040
Speaker 2: topped out on that two year all right, guys, it

999
00:50:35,239 --> 00:50:37,239
Speaker 2: is in the new issue of Bloomberg Business Week. Check

1000
00:50:37,239 --> 00:50:40,040
Speaker 2: it out on newsstands online at Bloomberg dot com, sized

1001
00:50:40,080 --> 00:50:42,280
Speaker 2: Business Weekend on the Bloomberg terminal.

1002
00:50:47,440 --> 00:50:50,560
Speaker 1: Mark Journal.

1003
00:50:51,640 --> 00:50:52,600
Speaker 4: How about you let me drive?

1004
00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:53,520
Speaker 2: No, no, no.

1005
00:50:55,960 --> 00:50:58,200
Speaker 1: Honey, please, I'll do the gravel.

1006
00:50:59,400 --> 00:50:59,759
Speaker 4: I want to.

1007
00:51:02,400 --> 00:51:04,279
Speaker 10: It's a good question, good time.

1008
00:51:07,080 --> 00:51:12,360
Speaker 1: This is the drive to the globe. Well, I'm on

1009
00:51:12,560 --> 00:51:13,520
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio.

1010
00:51:13,600 --> 00:51:15,360
Speaker 2: I just look at through her rite through here on

1011
00:51:15,440 --> 00:51:18,920
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg We've got stocks falling to their lowest since June.

1012
00:51:19,120 --> 00:51:21,239
Speaker 2: I got the ten year yields climbing, latest reading on

1013
00:51:21,239 --> 00:51:23,560
Speaker 2: the labor market, reinforcing the case for the FEDS higher

1014
00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:26,399
Speaker 2: for longer stance s and P five hundred right now,

1015
00:51:26,440 --> 00:51:28,520
Speaker 2: as Charlie mentioned, down about one and a half percent

1016
00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:32,480
Speaker 2: tim all major US equity benchmarks breaking below their one

1017
00:51:32,520 --> 00:51:35,560
Speaker 2: hundred day moving averages, seen as a bear signal by

1018
00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:38,480
Speaker 2: some technical analysts. So there it is, folks.

1019
00:51:38,680 --> 00:51:40,040
Speaker 3: You know what looks pretty good right now?

1020
00:51:40,120 --> 00:51:40,839
Speaker 2: That looks pretty good?

1021
00:51:40,840 --> 00:51:42,800
Speaker 3: Money market funds that yield over five percent.

1022
00:51:42,840 --> 00:51:45,640
Speaker 2: Ex I don't know. Why wouldn't you write, why wouldn't

1023
00:51:45,680 --> 00:51:48,120
Speaker 2: you exactly? Well, let's see what Hillary Kramer has to say.

1024
00:51:48,120 --> 00:51:51,120
Speaker 2: She's back with us. She's CIO at Kramer Capital Research.

1025
00:51:51,160 --> 00:51:54,440
Speaker 2: He's here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. Great to

1026
00:51:54,440 --> 00:51:56,319
Speaker 2: have you back with us. Why wouldn't you just throw

1027
00:51:56,360 --> 00:51:58,560
Speaker 2: everything in a money market right now and just don't

1028
00:51:58,560 --> 00:52:00,960
Speaker 2: worry about like just take the risk off the table

1029
00:52:01,000 --> 00:52:02,000
Speaker 2: and just go all in.

1030
00:52:02,320 --> 00:52:04,600
Speaker 11: Well, I have to say that you really do want

1031
00:52:04,600 --> 00:52:07,120
Speaker 11: to keep your powder dry, and it is an opportunity

1032
00:52:07,200 --> 00:52:09,920
Speaker 11: here the notes I sent early this morning where I

1033
00:52:09,960 --> 00:52:12,920
Speaker 11: think a lot more optimistic than as the market started

1034
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:16,080
Speaker 11: to unfold today and I saw the bond market, you know,

1035
00:52:16,200 --> 00:52:20,520
Speaker 11: leading stocks lower and stocks in general are really weak,

1036
00:52:20,600 --> 00:52:24,880
Speaker 11: and it's really about earning season and interesting it's the banks,

1037
00:52:25,000 --> 00:52:28,960
Speaker 11: especially the regional banks. These depositors are drying up, and

1038
00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:30,839
Speaker 11: that's one of the data points we were looking at

1039
00:52:30,840 --> 00:52:31,400
Speaker 11: this afternoon.

1040
00:52:31,440 --> 00:52:32,919
Speaker 2: We used to love US Bank Corp.

1041
00:52:33,280 --> 00:52:35,200
Speaker 11: I love it like we won't teach it.

1042
00:52:35,280 --> 00:52:37,400
Speaker 3: Right now, we're actually going to be speaking in just

1043
00:52:37,440 --> 00:52:40,120
Speaker 3: a few minutes with the founder, chairman and CEO of

1044
00:52:40,160 --> 00:52:43,600
Speaker 3: Connect One Bank, Frank Sorrentino. We love talking to him

1045
00:52:43,600 --> 00:52:46,640
Speaker 3: because regional banks are just a great read on the

1046
00:52:46,719 --> 00:52:48,440
Speaker 3: US economy. He can tell us, he can answer that

1047
00:52:48,520 --> 00:52:52,759
Speaker 3: question our depositor is actually fleeing for yield interest high

1048
00:52:52,800 --> 00:52:53,840
Speaker 3: yielding interest accounts.

1049
00:52:53,840 --> 00:52:55,800
Speaker 2: And I just want to mention the KRE, the regional

1050
00:52:55,880 --> 00:52:58,520
Speaker 2: bank ETF. It's down about twenty six twenty seven percent

1051
00:52:58,560 --> 00:52:59,040
Speaker 2: year today.

1052
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:01,560
Speaker 11: Yeah, and it made even more than that because we're

1053
00:53:01,600 --> 00:53:06,800
Speaker 11: just talking about depositors. What about credit quality? What about origination? Okay,

1054
00:53:06,840 --> 00:53:08,520
Speaker 11: like it's going to take a long time to get

1055
00:53:08,520 --> 00:53:10,719
Speaker 11: from seven and a half percent mortgages down to back

1056
00:53:10,840 --> 00:53:13,160
Speaker 11: like four percent mortgages. It doesn't just happen.

1057
00:53:12,920 --> 00:53:13,920
Speaker 2: Over by banks.

1058
00:53:14,000 --> 00:53:16,120
Speaker 11: Right now, I would not be looking at the banks.

1059
00:53:16,160 --> 00:53:18,280
Speaker 11: We're going to really look to the banks to see

1060
00:53:18,320 --> 00:53:20,400
Speaker 11: what they have to say and what kind of color

1061
00:53:20,400 --> 00:53:22,640
Speaker 11: they give us on the market when they start to

1062
00:53:22,680 --> 00:53:23,600
Speaker 11: report earnings.

1063
00:53:24,000 --> 00:53:24,239
Speaker 4: Uh.

1064
00:53:24,280 --> 00:53:26,719
Speaker 11: And then I mean just think about something like restaurants.

1065
00:53:26,800 --> 00:53:29,440
Speaker 11: Restaurant like cracker barrel used to be a go to stock.

1066
00:53:29,760 --> 00:53:31,480
Speaker 11: It's in the toilet. I mean, there's just no other

1067
00:53:31,520 --> 00:53:32,160
Speaker 11: way to put it.

1068
00:53:32,239 --> 00:53:33,880
Speaker 2: Well, so how do you what's the conviction you have

1069
00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:35,719
Speaker 2: in a market like this? We keep talking about what's

1070
00:53:35,719 --> 00:53:37,719
Speaker 2: going on with the treasury trade, and we're talking about

1071
00:53:37,719 --> 00:53:39,960
Speaker 2: what the ten year back to levels we saw in

1072
00:53:40,280 --> 00:53:44,200
Speaker 2: six oh seven o seven actually and this just before

1073
00:53:44,239 --> 00:53:47,160
Speaker 2: like everything started to come undone in the Great Financial Crisis.

1074
00:53:47,680 --> 00:53:50,560
Speaker 2: I keep saying, it doesn't feel like the Great Financial Crisis,

1075
00:53:50,760 --> 00:53:52,400
Speaker 2: but it does feel like there's a lot of ifs

1076
00:53:52,440 --> 00:53:55,279
Speaker 2: out there. So I don't know what's the conviction you

1077
00:53:55,320 --> 00:53:58,200
Speaker 2: can have in this market. It can buy or not buy.

1078
00:53:58,600 --> 00:54:02,640
Speaker 11: Well, there's conviction always to buy to some extent, and

1079
00:54:02,680 --> 00:54:07,240
Speaker 11: that's where portfolio management obviously comes into play and making

1080
00:54:07,280 --> 00:54:10,080
Speaker 11: sure that you pick your points go in slowly, but

1081
00:54:10,160 --> 00:54:12,880
Speaker 11: there are still opportunities out there. Yesterday's earnings, go I

1082
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:15,359
Speaker 11: thought that General Mills, you know, looked really good. It

1083
00:54:15,360 --> 00:54:18,040
Speaker 11: was it twenty percent off of its highs from the year.

1084
00:54:18,400 --> 00:54:21,479
Speaker 11: So some of these food stocks look pretty good. We've

1085
00:54:21,480 --> 00:54:24,520
Speaker 11: seen some stocks that fundamentally are good but have had

1086
00:54:24,560 --> 00:54:28,000
Speaker 11: issues like three m you know, with their big lawsuit

1087
00:54:28,040 --> 00:54:28,719
Speaker 11: that they just sell.

1088
00:54:28,880 --> 00:54:30,120
Speaker 2: That means stock pickers market.

1089
00:54:30,440 --> 00:54:32,240
Speaker 11: Oh totally, it's a stock pickers market.

1090
00:54:32,520 --> 00:54:32,800
Speaker 4: Now.

1091
00:54:33,120 --> 00:54:36,600
Speaker 11: That being said, so many investors, including some of the

1092
00:54:36,719 --> 00:54:39,879
Speaker 11: large smart investors, don't realize the extent to which these

1093
00:54:39,920 --> 00:54:42,719
Speaker 11: Magnificent seven have just simply been up because everyone buys

1094
00:54:42,760 --> 00:54:47,080
Speaker 11: ETFs and that's why Apple and Microsoft and Amazon continue

1095
00:54:47,120 --> 00:54:49,920
Speaker 11: to rise and even today. I think Microsoft was up

1096
00:54:49,960 --> 00:54:51,640
Speaker 11: actually a little bit middle of the day. Where is

1097
00:54:51,680 --> 00:54:54,640
Speaker 11: it right now? It's probably about even on the day.

1098
00:54:55,680 --> 00:54:59,279
Speaker 11: Apple was doing okay, and that's because there is still that.

1099
00:54:59,200 --> 00:55:01,279
Speaker 2: Microsoft stuff that one quarter of a percentage was up

1100
00:55:01,280 --> 00:55:03,000
Speaker 2: about one point four percent earlier in the day, and

1101
00:55:03,400 --> 00:55:03,840
Speaker 2: there we go.

1102
00:55:03,920 --> 00:55:05,239
Speaker 11: That's pretty good.

1103
00:55:05,800 --> 00:55:07,840
Speaker 2: I think hit me out here, because like if I

1104
00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:10,920
Speaker 2: bought Nvidia in January and of one hundred and eighty

1105
00:55:10,920 --> 00:55:12,000
Speaker 2: two percent, I'm pretty happy.

1106
00:55:12,080 --> 00:55:12,880
Speaker 3: It's not bad, Carol.

1107
00:55:12,920 --> 00:55:14,560
Speaker 2: I was my brother's Yeah, I bought it back in

1108
00:55:14,560 --> 00:55:16,560
Speaker 2: twenty twenty. I was reading about my good for you, buddy,

1109
00:55:17,200 --> 00:55:22,200
Speaker 2: I'm and he's like, I'm really happy. So I'm just wondering, well,

1110
00:55:22,280 --> 00:55:24,760
Speaker 2: you know, I can't really like continue stock so easily

1111
00:55:25,640 --> 00:55:29,399
Speaker 2: do this, Yes, exactly. So I'm just like, I hear,

1112
00:55:29,719 --> 00:55:34,759
Speaker 2: I don't know what is this? What your clients tell us,

1113
00:55:34,760 --> 00:55:37,240
Speaker 2: what they are doing and what they are concerned about,

1114
00:55:37,360 --> 00:55:40,560
Speaker 2: or what kind of calls you're getting from the folks

1115
00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:42,839
Speaker 2: that you that you either help manage money or give

1116
00:55:42,840 --> 00:55:43,279
Speaker 2: advice to.

1117
00:55:43,840 --> 00:55:46,799
Speaker 11: They're sitting on their hands and many of them are

1118
00:55:46,840 --> 00:55:50,120
Speaker 11: looking to sell. They're looking to liquidate. Remember, we have

1119
00:55:50,160 --> 00:55:54,120
Speaker 11: a very different demographic today where the next generation, whether

1120
00:55:54,160 --> 00:55:58,000
Speaker 11: it be lower middle or upper class, the parents you know,

1121
00:55:58,080 --> 00:56:00,760
Speaker 11: are paying for those that are, you know, young adults,

1122
00:56:01,000 --> 00:56:03,200
Speaker 11: and there's a need for liquidity. There's a need for

1123
00:56:03,280 --> 00:56:06,399
Speaker 11: money that we didn't used to have in a previous time.

1124
00:56:06,719 --> 00:56:09,720
Speaker 11: But as a stock pickers market, like we've had his stock,

1125
00:56:09,800 --> 00:56:12,560
Speaker 11: I still think people so that sounds to be very bearish,

1126
00:56:13,000 --> 00:56:15,680
Speaker 11: but it's bearished. But remember the FED is going to

1127
00:56:15,760 --> 00:56:20,840
Speaker 11: come in and save the day. They're gonna slash rates.

1128
00:56:21,360 --> 00:56:24,200
Speaker 2: I thought Jay Powell was really clear yesterday that he

1129
00:56:24,280 --> 00:56:26,920
Speaker 2: might even tighten another quarter percentage point. But at the

1130
00:56:26,960 --> 00:56:29,759
Speaker 2: minute higher pirate anchor higher for lunch. But then you

1131
00:56:29,800 --> 00:56:33,520
Speaker 2: think he's just over You think he's over optimistic. Who

1132
00:56:33,560 --> 00:56:36,240
Speaker 2: thought he is? Former US Treasury Secretary of Larry Summers

1133
00:56:36,480 --> 00:56:41,000
Speaker 2: thinks that basically the FED is you know, drinking the

1134
00:56:41,040 --> 00:56:42,160
Speaker 2: soft landing kool aid.

1135
00:56:43,000 --> 00:56:48,000
Speaker 11: The Federal Reserve is playing trying to play mine. David Weston,

1136
00:56:48,040 --> 00:56:53,239
Speaker 11: that is, FED is playing playing mind games. I thought

1137
00:56:53,239 --> 00:56:55,719
Speaker 11: it was very interesting. I thought Powell was just so

1138
00:56:55,840 --> 00:56:59,560
Speaker 11: vague yesterday. It was very disappointing to hear him not

1139
00:56:59,719 --> 00:57:03,120
Speaker 11: want to really answer the questions. And the Q and

1140
00:57:03,200 --> 00:57:05,919
Speaker 11: a the way he should have. But what we will

1141
00:57:06,000 --> 00:57:09,560
Speaker 11: see is we're going to see maybe a little bit

1142
00:57:09,600 --> 00:57:11,480
Speaker 11: of a bounce up, but I think we're going to

1143
00:57:11,520 --> 00:57:14,239
Speaker 11: see the market come back down. We're going to have,

1144
00:57:14,520 --> 00:57:16,720
Speaker 11: you know, like a drawdown that could be five to

1145
00:57:16,800 --> 00:57:18,760
Speaker 11: seven percent over two or three day.

1146
00:57:18,600 --> 00:57:20,640
Speaker 3: Period rival what we saw last October.

1147
00:57:21,120 --> 00:57:21,960
Speaker 4: And then and then he.

1148
00:57:22,000 --> 00:57:25,000
Speaker 11: Comes in and that's when we see that because he's

1149
00:57:25,040 --> 00:57:26,160
Speaker 11: overdone it.

1150
00:57:25,680 --> 00:57:28,200
Speaker 3: But when he says he's data dependent, he's not watching

1151
00:57:28,200 --> 00:57:30,160
Speaker 3: the S and P five hundred labor markets.

1152
00:57:29,840 --> 00:57:31,960
Speaker 2: Still say we got another exactly.

1153
00:57:31,760 --> 00:57:35,520
Speaker 3: And the cpis you know PCE is not to two percent, right.

1154
00:57:35,560 --> 00:57:38,040
Speaker 11: Okay, well that's something else that's interesting, Carol. You just

1155
00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:41,000
Speaker 11: brought up the labor market. As soon as we see

1156
00:57:41,280 --> 00:57:46,160
Speaker 11: some layoffs start to happen, that's when the consumer becomes undone.

1157
00:57:46,400 --> 00:57:49,200
Speaker 11: That's when all bets are off and that market starts.

1158
00:57:49,760 --> 00:57:53,120
Speaker 11: We could see it between now and December thirty one.

1159
00:57:53,160 --> 00:57:55,680
Speaker 11: I mean, I think that there might be some there

1160
00:57:55,760 --> 00:57:57,960
Speaker 11: might be some gearing up. You know, we saw Amazon

1161
00:57:58,000 --> 00:58:00,320
Speaker 11: what tiring two hundred and fifty thousand employees.

1162
00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:03,600
Speaker 3: Then hour as an average wage, that's a lot of money.

1163
00:58:03,440 --> 00:58:08,560
Speaker 11: Right, But AI technology many of those jobs has really

1164
00:58:08,640 --> 00:58:10,720
Speaker 11: taken a lot of the a lot of people out

1165
00:58:10,720 --> 00:58:16,400
Speaker 11: of the market. We know the finance, we know we

1166
00:58:16,520 --> 00:58:20,240
Speaker 11: know that the financial We know that the financial industry

1167
00:58:20,600 --> 00:58:24,360
Speaker 11: is really in dire straits right now and is actively

1168
00:58:24,440 --> 00:58:26,800
Speaker 11: laying off regardless of what we hear. We hear it

1169
00:58:26,840 --> 00:58:29,640
Speaker 11: in little bits and pieces. But there aren't those jobs

1170
00:58:29,680 --> 00:58:34,120
Speaker 11: out there. But the consumer, the consumer is really going

1171
00:58:34,200 --> 00:58:36,680
Speaker 11: to get nervous. Look Home deepo and Lows. Here's another proof.

1172
00:58:38,280 --> 00:58:41,480
Speaker 11: Home deeple and Lows doing terribly today. That's proof that

1173
00:58:41,720 --> 00:58:43,640
Speaker 11: everyone knows you're not going to move a house in

1174
00:58:43,680 --> 00:58:45,720
Speaker 11: a seven and a half percent mortgage environment.

1175
00:58:45,960 --> 00:58:46,840
Speaker 2: We're just not going to it.

1176
00:58:46,840 --> 00:58:49,200
Speaker 11: And it's not even worth trying to fix up your

1177
00:58:49,200 --> 00:58:51,960
Speaker 11: house to sell.

1178
00:58:52,320 --> 00:58:52,720
Speaker 1: We're doing.

1179
00:58:53,760 --> 00:58:54,280
Speaker 4: You are.

1180
00:58:56,880 --> 00:58:59,520
Speaker 2: Looking and they're like, there's not no inventory. Hillary Kramer,

1181
00:59:00,040 --> 00:59:01,120
Speaker 2: Kramer Capital Research.

1182
00:59:01,200 --> 00:59:01,960
Speaker 4: Be wel. Thank you.

1183
00:59:18,080 --> 00:59:22,720
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1184
00:59:22,880 --> 00:59:26,560
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1185
00:59:26,600 --> 00:59:30,200
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1186
00:59:30,240 --> 00:59:33,560
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1187
00:59:33,640 --> 00:59:36,600
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1188
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