Speaker 1: Welcome in friends to the Fantasy Pros Dynasty Baseball Podcast
Speaker 1: right here on Fantasy Pros and the Leading off Baseball Feed.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Chris Welsh.
Speaker 2: You can find on.
Speaker 1: Twitter at is It the Welsh. We continue our Dynasty
Speaker 1: Baseball series, obviously the Dynasty Baseball Podcast. Today we're talking
Speaker 1: about who we're selling. Last week we had Tim kannak
Speaker 1: On talking about Dynasty bys. This week, Jesse Roach from
Speaker 1: Baseball Perspectus is going to be joining us to talk
Speaker 1: about the Dynasty cells, go by position, top players that
Speaker 1: he is looking at selling overall. So we're playing a
Speaker 1: little bit of the negative side today though though there
Speaker 1: are some Dynasty bys also kind of sprinkled into the conversation.
Speaker 1: Thank you, guys all for your awesome Dynasty support here
Speaker 1: for Fantasy pro So make sure that you guys subscribe
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Speaker 1: baseball is going to be hitting in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1: Many may have already heard, but Fantasy Pros has brought
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Speaker 1: baseball talk. So we're gonna have a great twenty twenty
Speaker 1: four with all the redraft and continuation of more Dynasty conversations.
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Speaker 2: Check out all the other great features. Let's not wait anymore.
Speaker 1: My friend Jesse Roach from Baseball Perspectives joining us to
Speaker 1: talk about all these Dynasty cells. So let's go do it.
Speaker 1: Joining me here on the Fantasy Pros Dynasty Baseball podcast
Speaker 1: is Jesse Roach, who you can find as a writer
Speaker 1: and rankover at Baseball Perspectives. I have known Jesse for
Speaker 1: quite time, done lots of episodes, and that is why
Speaker 1: we have got him not only on the Dynasties the
Speaker 1: Cells Dynasty Cells, because Jesse is not afraid to tell
Speaker 1: you how it is. This is a difficult subject. Jesse,
Speaker 1: I'll even tell you this. I was going to tell
Speaker 1: you all the details, but I was perusing some content
Speaker 1: kind of figuring out maybe in a certain place that
Speaker 1: we know, and I was looking, hey, what did well
Speaker 1: last year?
Speaker 2: What did poorly?
Speaker 1: And the poor was focusing on the negative. The negative
Speaker 1: stuff didn't do as well as some of the positive
Speaker 1: stuff from a content perspective. But you do need to
Speaker 1: have the conversation. And what a better conversation to have
Speaker 1: than digging in on dynasty cells here. So I didn't
Speaker 1: even get to give you a proper introduction.
Speaker 3: Buddy, Hey, it's great to be on I love talking cells.
Speaker 3: I think a lot of people who know me in
Speaker 3: the industry understand that I am not afraid to be
Speaker 3: a DeBie downer with players. I often will throw cold
Speaker 3: water because there's just so much hype in our in
Speaker 3: our space, that's like all we see just about so
Speaker 3: I like to throw cold water on players. I guess
Speaker 3: the expectations that people have, at least for players as
Speaker 3: much as possible, because we have to be realistic.
Speaker 1: I think that I presume I don't know whether you
Speaker 1: are or not, but if you were a gambler, presume
Speaker 1: you would be someone that would find some good unders.
Speaker 1: You'd be betting some unders you could you would be
Speaker 1: able to identify the like Andrew Erickson here at Fantasy bro,
Speaker 1: you'd be able to identify some unders, but you're right.
Speaker 1: In the dynasty space, the cells are so important, I
Speaker 1: think more important than in redraft. Like redraft is fun
Speaker 1: and taking advantage. I think buys are more important in redraft,
Speaker 1: but you know, when you can get out, it's great.
Speaker 2: But dynasty hype is king.
Speaker 1: And you know, we had Tim Kanak on last week,
Speaker 1: and you know Tim would talk about when you're looking
Speaker 1: at like Ottana leagues, No definitely has kind of a
Speaker 1: stock system element to it, where you want to find
Speaker 1: the right proper time where you can get out, and
Speaker 1: almost everybody has a price to get out. Every dynasty
Speaker 1: has created differently that has arbitration and money systems. Some
Speaker 1: leagues you can just keep guys forever, but that doesn't
Speaker 1: mean that there isn't a time where everybody can be sold.
Speaker 1: So we are going to put some focus on some
Speaker 1: players that Jesse has identified as cells in Dynasty, and
Speaker 1: we did positionally last week on the buy, so we're
Speaker 1: going to do the same on the cells this week.
Speaker 3: Jesse.
Speaker 1: So let's get right into it and let's look at
Speaker 1: catchers we have. We're going to focus more on the
Speaker 1: major league side. We do have a couple of prospects,
Speaker 1: and this is an instant where I'm going to.
Speaker 2: Talk about the prospects.
Speaker 1: But let's start with your first Dynasty stell At Catcher.
Speaker 3: Sure, I guess at the outset. I want to say
Speaker 3: that selling in Dynasty is often context driven. You know,
Speaker 3: I think it's very obvious to say, oh, well, an
Speaker 3: aging player is a great cell, because when if they
Speaker 3: have a bad season, all of a sudden, there's stock plummets,
Speaker 3: it craters because they're all you know, they're in their
Speaker 3: mid thirties. Sometimes Freddie Freeman right now, for example, you
Speaker 3: know he's thirty four, fairly safe profile generally, but you know,
Speaker 3: if he had a bad season, if you want started
Speaker 3: to go the way of Joey Vado, I mean, his
Speaker 3: stock in fantasy, you know, his value will just completely fall.
Speaker 3: The floor will fall out. So I don't really like
Speaker 3: to focus necessarily on aging players because I think it's obvious.
Speaker 3: You know, a lot of these players are going to
Speaker 3: be good selling cells. I mean we're seeing that already
Speaker 3: with like Paul Goldschmidt. You know, his value is creted
Speaker 3: very quickly.
Speaker 2: You're you're an insane person.
Speaker 1: I literally was waiting to jump in because I was
Speaker 1: literally going to bring up Paul Goldman. You read my mind,
Speaker 1: because you're exactly right. He had a poor ish season
Speaker 1: because of his age.
Speaker 2: He's tumbling.
Speaker 1: As far as value goes, I would argue he's a
Speaker 1: huge buy. Expected stats through the roof tell a different
Speaker 1: story working at drive line, which can be you know,
Speaker 1: blah blah for some people, Oh drive line. But one
Speaker 1: of the things, it's just funny because I was this
Speaker 1: was something that has stood out. Just wrote in the
Speaker 1: Fantasy Black book Joe Piezapias, which is out now everybody
Speaker 1: can go check out. We did some Dynasty stuff in there.
Speaker 1: Actually did a Dynasty mock with a breakdown. But gold
Speaker 1: Schmid was one that stood out to me so much
Speaker 1: in my writing because you go and look, you see
Speaker 1: all these expected numbers that we're kind of telling you
Speaker 1: a different story. But one thing you also saw was
Speaker 1: you could see that bat speed seemed like it was
Speaker 1: going away. Because hard hit numbers, if I'm remembering correctly
Speaker 1: from what I wrote, they sustain. But the lawn ch
Speaker 1: agle dropped and I think it dropped significantly, So in
Speaker 1: my brain I started to just started to put together
Speaker 1: like maybe the bat speed was becoming a problem where
Speaker 1: all these underlying things worked in favor. And then when
Speaker 1: you know it, as I'm in the process of writing it,
Speaker 1: I find he's at driveline working on bat speed the
Speaker 1: exact same thing. So this is just like a little
Speaker 1: tiny thing I'm adding and you'll add to it. But
Speaker 1: it is so funny you brought him up because he's
Speaker 1: a prime example of what you were leading to. Yet
Speaker 1: sometimes those guys can actually be dynasty buys because that
Speaker 1: is cratered.
Speaker 3: Yes, exactly. I think Goldshman's a good opportunity by right now,
Speaker 3: given that a lot of people will not. He's typically
Speaker 3: drafted well outside of top one hundred. You know, I
Speaker 3: think I still have him within my top one fifty personally,
Speaker 3: but I wouldn't be shocked to see people push him
Speaker 3: outside to top two hundred. I will tell you in
Speaker 3: dynasty leagues in practice, you know, when my rankings are
Speaker 3: basically in a vacuum, right, they're context neutral, So you know,
Speaker 3: in a vacuum, that's how I value him. But obviously,
Speaker 3: if you're a rebuilding team, you're not placing any value
Speaker 3: on Paul out, So the number of people who are
Speaker 3: willing to buy him is very limited. So if there's
Speaker 3: someone willing to sell him, they're going to have a
Speaker 3: limited number of teams to even work with. So if
Speaker 3: you're one of those teams, you can often you know,
Speaker 3: get a good value because there's just not much competition. Great.
Speaker 3: So that's just a.
Speaker 1: Great that's a really great context point of knowing the
Speaker 1: market is a lot less guys get thirty three and over.
Speaker 1: That market is much smaller to the buy now and
Speaker 1: coming off of a poor year, it just doesn't exist.
Speaker 1: It didn't mean to make this about Paul gold Smith,
Speaker 1: but I thought it was a prime example. And I
Speaker 1: think your concrest is really important. So what people can
Speaker 1: know is this isn't going to be a list of
Speaker 1: thirty six year old guys and above that you're about
Speaker 1: to drop here, and this catcher sure isn't.
Speaker 3: No, it's a William contraras so he's twenty five year old.
Speaker 3: He's going to be twenty six in a week. So
Speaker 3: you know he's a Christmas Eve baby, So happy soon
Speaker 3: to be birthday, William Contras. But you know he's coming
Speaker 3: off a very strong season, very strong second half with
Speaker 3: the Brewers. You know, he had a six hundred and
Speaker 3: eleven plate appearances, seventeen home runs, eighty six runs scored,
Speaker 3: seventy eight RBI, six stolem bases to go on top
Speaker 3: of it, and at two eighty nine average. So he
Speaker 3: had a fantastic season. Huge strides defensively too, which I think,
Speaker 3: you know, for fantasy, maybe that it matters only to
Speaker 3: the point that it's more likely he's going to stick
Speaker 3: a catcher long term. It's almost a lock at this point.
Speaker 3: But my big concern is I'm seeing people draft ranking
Speaker 3: him as high as second dynasty catchers behind Adlie Rushman.
Speaker 3: I think that's a bit of a stretch for a
Speaker 3: few reasons. Right, Yes, he has big power, his evs
Speaker 3: are great, but he hits everything into the ground. His
Speaker 3: ground ball rate has consistently been astronomical. It's fifty five
Speaker 3: percent last year. It's really difficult for players to change
Speaker 3: launch angle. It requires a lot of swing mechanical changes.
Speaker 3: And if he's putting more balls in the air, all
Speaker 3: of a sudden, that batting average is going to start
Speaker 3: to creep down because the more fly balls he hits
Speaker 3: the less the lower the batting average and balls and
Speaker 3: play will be So there's a trade off here. If
Speaker 3: you want that like two eighty two ninety average, it's
Speaker 3: going to come with a very much muted power production.
Speaker 3: But if you are trying to chase the power production
Speaker 3: because you see the underlying exit velocity data and the
Speaker 3: hard hit rates, then you're going to be disappointed because
Speaker 3: the average will go crashing down if he starts putting
Speaker 3: the ball more in the air. So it's just a
Speaker 3: profile that I don't think it's I think there's a
Speaker 3: very strong give and take here with him. I don't
Speaker 3: think that he's a player that has as much growth
Speaker 3: potential as some people maybe in vision with him. And
Speaker 3: I'm still just concerned generally because I think there's still
Speaker 3: plenty of underlyings were to miss in his game. It
Speaker 3: took a step forward last year. His zone contact rate
Speaker 3: jumped five percentage points from seventy seven point two percent
Speaker 3: to eighty two point two percent, and he's consistently had
Speaker 3: very poor contact rates throughout his career. Last year was
Speaker 3: basically an anomalous season. Are we going to expect him
Speaker 3: to maintain that moving forward? I think that's also a
Speaker 3: bit of a stretch, So I generally think it's a
Speaker 3: profile that has less growth potential and a lot of
Speaker 3: createring potential. And I really don't like where he's being
Speaker 3: priced right now in Dynasty. I do not think he's
Speaker 3: the top one hundred Dynasty player period, and I just
Speaker 3: would be out. I would be trying to sell right now.
Speaker 3: I know it's weird to sell someone who's about to
Speaker 3: be twenty six at catcher, who's coming off a career
Speaker 3: season in a favorable home park on a good offensive team,
Speaker 3: but I would be.
Speaker 2: Yeah and taking a look here.
Speaker 1: He ended up going in giving a shout out to
Speaker 1: Chris Klegg, who was doing some Dynasty mock similar to
Speaker 1: my prospect ones on the Dynasty dugout. Contreras was the
Speaker 1: second catcher taken in Dynasty overall. In this mack of
Speaker 1: the one that I was a part of, and it's
Speaker 1: got a third, I'm sorry third. Will Smith ended up going.
Speaker 1: It looks like second, and he was a third and
Speaker 1: this had He's got some really good Dynasty people just
Speaker 1: in my draft alone. What's interesting is he's the third
Speaker 1: catcher going in NFPC drafts this year, going ahead of
Speaker 1: Will Smith as well. I think early season drafts are
Speaker 1: driving some of it. Age is driving some of it,
Speaker 1: some of the changes are driving it. But I devalue
Speaker 1: catchers a little bit in Dynasty kind of in general.
Speaker 1: So pate price, Yeah, exactly, And projections are great. Steamer
Speaker 1: is projecting twenty five eighty eighty with a two seventy
Speaker 1: batting average and low strikeouts. That's fine if that's the case.
Speaker 1: I'm not with like similar to what you said. If
Speaker 1: those power numbers are going to rise, I think the
Speaker 1: batting average is going to suffer greater. And I'm really
Speaker 1: not sure what the team context they're running RBI numbers
Speaker 1: will be there. Either way, it's a pretty good opportunity
Speaker 1: not to be spending so much time here in catcher.
Speaker 1: You just do have one other really interesting name I
Speaker 1: want to throw as a cell and I'm gonna guess
Speaker 1: this is going to be about hype, which is understandable.
Speaker 2: But Ethan Solace is one that you threw here for Dynasty.
Speaker 3: Yes, So it's funny because I was talking about this
Speaker 3: pre show, is that I actually drafted Ethan Sawace in
Speaker 3: the Prospect one draft. I think it was twenty first
Speaker 3: so overall, so I look, I really like Ethan Sawas.
Speaker 3: I think what you're going to see this offseason is
Speaker 3: all the big national lists are going to come out
Speaker 3: and he's going to be a top five prospect in
Speaker 3: all of baseball and in typical dynasty leagues and a
Speaker 3: lot of them that don't involve maybe more savvy owners.
Speaker 3: They're going to look at those lists and buy that
Speaker 3: hype in a big way. Look, he is eighteen, he's
Speaker 3: on it's even eighteen. Yet he's not even eighteen years old. Yet,
Speaker 3: He's not even eighteen on opening Day, he's said seventeen
Speaker 3: years old. Catchers take a long time to develop. Yes,
Speaker 3: he's on a massively fast track, but doesn't mean he's not.
Speaker 3: He's going to like start stagnating. You know, he's in
Speaker 3: Double A. He's gonna spend probably all year in Double A,
Speaker 3: probably all year in Triple A next year. Yes, he'll
Speaker 3: still probably get to the majors early. But I'm just
Speaker 3: I don't catchers scared of me in dynasty, especially catching prospects,
Speaker 3: for a lot of reasons. You know, if den Bell mounts,
Speaker 3: time is very lengthy for catching prospects, the attrition rates
Speaker 3: very high, and when they get to the majors. As
Speaker 3: you've noted, you know, catchers they have muted production periods.
Speaker 3: So you're going to see flashy hitting power tools maybe
Speaker 3: from analysts for someone like SaaS, but those are going
Speaker 3: to get muted at the pro level. I mean, just
Speaker 3: look at what Adlee Rushman's doing. Fantastic player, but and
Speaker 3: you know, I all tends some purposes. It's a very
Speaker 3: clear plus hit tool with you know, above average power,
Speaker 3: but it plays down in games because it's a long
Speaker 3: season and catchers just are not going to produce like
Speaker 3: other positions, and they're not going to typically play every
Speaker 3: day either. So I just generally I put Solace in
Speaker 3: a way there as a point of his age, and
Speaker 3: also just catchers, I just I don't like dynasty catchers
Speaker 3: at all. For prospects. I would be fading them hard generally,
Speaker 3: and I'd be selling them, especially when I see the
Speaker 3: hype building like it is with Salas.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know a lot of people that followed
Speaker 1: me last year knew I was hype trained Ethan Solace.
Speaker 3: So we got solved there should be because he's great well.
Speaker 1: But also this is right around the time where it
Speaker 1: was Solace versus Filman everyone's kind of jaded about the
Speaker 1: j J fifteen class now and everyone just kind of
Speaker 1: dealing with that. And I loved everything I saw with Solace.
Speaker 1: The problem is where I was pushing him as, hey,
Speaker 1: let's get him top seventy five, let's don't be scared,
Speaker 1: get him now he's top twenty, and you referred to
Speaker 1: my I have the prospect one P one ADP mocks,
Speaker 1: which is over on my in this league Patreon. This
Speaker 1: week is posted the ADP. Well, the ADP of him
Speaker 1: is higher than you took him. It's inside the top twenty.
Speaker 1: So from a catcher value standpoint, here's a perspective I'll
Speaker 1: give you. He went at their lows he went, or
Speaker 1: I guess I should say at the highest the highest
Speaker 1: he went. Ethan Salas was one pick away from the
Speaker 1: lowest Jason Domingos win. So for perspective, you could trade
Speaker 1: Ethan Salas pretty much as a one for one to
Speaker 1: get Jason Domingoes. I'm a buyer of Jason Dimingez on
Speaker 1: the injury for this year, and there's a lot of
Speaker 1: other guys in the same general range that you could
Speaker 1: sell him for to get some pretty big stuff. He
Speaker 1: went the highest he went was fourteen in one of
Speaker 1: the leagues I put together, and Yamamoto went after that.
Speaker 1: Now it's a pitcher, But if you're in win now
Speaker 1: versus there's just a lot of stuff you're gonna be
Speaker 1: able to do with the hype that's going to go
Speaker 1: around with Ethan Sallas and it's not going away anytime soon.
Speaker 1: Moving over to first base, Christian in Carnacion Strand he
Speaker 1: comes in. I stole you getting to announce him. What's
Speaker 1: interesting is he absolutely jumps off the page of expected
Speaker 1: stats when you dig deeper, what the hard hit numbers,
Speaker 1: barrel percentage and expected numbers did versus the production. But
Speaker 1: you have him as a cell, yes, because I think
Speaker 1: his approach scares me to death.
Speaker 3: You know, he is incredibly aggressive. He's going to swing
Speaker 3: all the time, and I don't really think that what
Speaker 3: we saw at the major league level is necessarily going
Speaker 3: to be something that we're going to see as being
Speaker 3: as sustainable as I'd like, as you'd want to see
Speaker 3: ol a first base only prospect. You know, there's a
Speaker 3: lot of under there's plenty of underlying swing a miss
Speaker 3: in this game as well with an aggressive approach. I
Speaker 3: mean he may not right, you know, have massive strikeout
Speaker 3: numbers because he's swinging all the time. But I just
Speaker 3: don't love that type of profile. I think there's a
Speaker 3: lot of bust risk with him, especially on in an
Speaker 3: organization that has an absolute crowd in the infield right now.
Speaker 3: I mean, obviously they're likely to make a move, but
Speaker 3: even after they trade someone like John Fan India, they're
Speaker 3: still going to have a crowd and they're gonna have
Speaker 3: a lot of mouths to feed, and there's just gonna
Speaker 3: be if he struggles, there's gonna be very little leash
Speaker 3: that he will have this year. I think he will
Speaker 3: go down to Triple A if he struggles out the gate,
Speaker 3: and that scares me because once that happens, his dynasty
Speaker 3: value is going to crash. Even if it's you know,
Speaker 3: typical sophomore you know struggles. You know, we have to
Speaker 3: remember that's what happens typically with a lot of prospects,
Speaker 3: especially prospects that have scary approaches like income Arci on Strand,
Speaker 3: and yeah, the power is big, and he could be
Speaker 3: like Frani early career, Famuel reeis in a lot of
Speaker 3: ways like he could have that kind of like he
Speaker 3: could have that kind of value generation. But I just
Speaker 3: don't love where he's going right now in Dynasty. I
Speaker 3: think it's some it's a point where there's a lot
Speaker 3: of first basemen in that range that I feel more
Speaker 3: comfortable with, and the inn Redraft, for sure, there's a
Speaker 3: lot more first basement that go around him in Redraft
Speaker 3: that I feel more comfortable with. So i'd be to
Speaker 3: sell him right now, especially when there are people that
Speaker 3: I know and really respect that love him and are
Speaker 3: hyping him to the ceiling. So I mean, yeah, he
Speaker 3: hits in a great park. I don't really think great
Speaker 3: American ballpark helps players as much like in Karnosiu and Strand,
Speaker 3: as much as maybe others think. Because the power will
Speaker 3: play anywhere, it helps those borderline guys that have borderline
Speaker 3: power life.
Speaker 2: Yeah we did it. Look at that, we didn't even
Speaker 2: play it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, help players like in constiuent Strand. So I don't
Speaker 3: really mean yeah, he could hit thirty on runs. He
Speaker 3: could also hit like two twenty.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love it.
Speaker 1: I think what's so important is so funny. We both
Speaker 1: run here, We're just gonna do this the whole show.
Speaker 2: Be a best friend.
Speaker 1: Yep, what's what's interesting about that is, or the two
Speaker 1: important things you said, is his approach with the level.
Speaker 2: Of talent that that team has is a bit of
Speaker 2: a risk. I do think a lot of the.
Speaker 1: Underlying stuff tells the story of a hitter that can
Speaker 1: put up thirty five homers and you know, can be
Speaker 1: a middle of the order type of guy. But the
Speaker 1: wiggle room does feel a little bit less. You know,
Speaker 1: they were playing him, they played him in some third
Speaker 1: last year in spring training, and they just did defensively.
Speaker 1: I mean, that was why he was held down to Defensively,
Speaker 1: you know, you're kind of stuck. Luckily they have a
Speaker 1: DH spot open, but if you go through some struggles,
Speaker 1: they have so many pieces there that they can move
Speaker 1: you in and out, especially if they still do have India.
Speaker 2: So there's a little bit of risk there. Take what
Speaker 2: we said before too.
Speaker 1: You could probably get Goldschmidt plus for strand in a
Speaker 1: dynasty league, or find a perfect marriage between a team
Speaker 1: that is trying to rebuild and a win now team.
Speaker 1: If you have the opposite ends, you could find some
Speaker 1: homes for that and plus more. Because that's not really
Speaker 1: even necessarily capitalizing on it. For Cees number two, or
Speaker 1: I guess the second base number two. The second base
Speaker 1: option you have here, I think screams Christian and Karnasio
Speaker 1: and Strand at second base, except I don't know if
Speaker 1: there's viable options here. But talk to us about your
Speaker 1: second base cell in Dynasty.
Speaker 3: Exach Geloff second basement for the athletics. So he, I
Speaker 3: think is probably an odd sort of an obvious cell.
Speaker 3: I think there's gonna be a few that I'm going
Speaker 3: to talk about tonight that should probably be obvious cells.
Speaker 3: I'm not really seeing it in the industry. I'm not
Speaker 3: seeing it in practice. I think people are trying to
Speaker 3: buy Bye Bye because for one, look, he legit has
Speaker 3: power and speed. The speed is very real. I think
Speaker 3: it's real, more real than anyone ever gave it credit
Speaker 3: and credit for as a prospect. I mean, last year
Speaker 3: between triple and Triple A in major leagues, he hit
Speaker 3: thirty four stolen bases on forty one attempts, and the
Speaker 3: data all supports it. I mean, he can fly, and
Speaker 3: he's a great base runner. He's had a massive track
Speaker 3: record of sole and bases, so I believe the speed.
Speaker 3: I think he definitely has a chance to be a
Speaker 3: twenty stone base threat easy this year, and the power
Speaker 3: is pretty solid, right, He's not going to necessarily jump
Speaker 3: off the page with the evs. But he's been on
Speaker 3: record saying that he doesn't look he can hit the
Speaker 3: ball really hard. He doesn't look to necessarily hit the
Speaker 3: ball into stratosphere, he said. He's said that, you know,
Speaker 3: I could hit at one ten or I could hit
Speaker 3: one five and it's still a home run, you know.
Speaker 3: So there isn't much of a difference there. It just
Speaker 3: helps him, you know, kind of pick his spots. So
Speaker 3: he's a savvy hitter. But the big issue I've had
Speaker 3: with him, and it's an ongoing issue, is there is
Speaker 3: a massive amount of underlying swing and miss. His zoom
Speaker 3: contact rate was seventy five point five percent, around seventy
Speaker 3: five percent last year. Actually, I think it was a
Speaker 3: little lower than that, which is terrible. I mean, that's
Speaker 3: very much below average. I think there's just scary amount
Speaker 3: swinging miss. He's fairly aggressive hitter that is not necessarily
Speaker 3: the doesn't necessarily thrive with like massive amounts of play
Speaker 3: discipline either. I think there's just a very real risk
Speaker 3: that the average completely craters and falls on like through
Speaker 3: a floor. Yeah, there's power speed that's nice, and he's
Speaker 3: going to have a lot of runway with the athletics.
Speaker 3: But you know, some people are ranking him or valuing
Speaker 3: on him as a top one hundred Dynasty player, and
Speaker 3: if that's the case, I think you try and sell
Speaker 3: because I just don't think I think the risk is
Speaker 3: too high given his underline screen miss.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and for perspective, when you were talking about the
Speaker 1: zone contact percentage, Spencer Torkolsen, who hit like two twelve
Speaker 1: get next beaf like two thirty two, had like around
Speaker 1: eighty five percent zone contact percentage. So just like you're
Speaker 1: running the perspectives of like, you know, there's a guy
Speaker 1: that has higher expected stats that had a bad batting average,
Speaker 1: and then you're gonna take you know, a higher early
Speaker 1: performance to really bad zone contact percentage. That's worrisome. And
Speaker 1: Chase Ray, it's worrisome. He's a counting stats guy, but
Speaker 1: he doesn't have like Matt McClain is a pretty common
Speaker 1: player that you're either on one or two sides you're like, wow,
Speaker 1: he well overperformed and he would be a sell or.
Speaker 1: Hey listen, he's just scratching the surface. But he he's
Speaker 1: one of those guys that has more floor as far
Speaker 1: as his profile than a guy like Geloff, So I
Speaker 1: agree with this one. Moving over to third base, we
Speaker 1: are getting to a little bit of an older name.
Speaker 1: We've had some young focus names, but we are focused
Speaker 1: on a player that is going to come into the
Speaker 1: season injured.
Speaker 2: So you're sell at third base.
Speaker 3: It's Bady Machado. He's going He's thirty one years old now,
Speaker 3: and you know, we've had many, many years of consistent
Speaker 3: thirty home run production, including last year, So I just
Speaker 3: think it's times this is a profile that's screaming massive
Speaker 3: amounts of regression. Obviously last year he took a step
Speaker 3: back offensively. I think generally there's just a lot of
Speaker 3: underlying stuff here with Machado that's scary, including the injury.
Speaker 3: I think the skills are trending down, the home park
Speaker 3: is not favorable, and this may be one of the
Speaker 3: last opportunities to buy before he falls well outside the
Speaker 3: top one hundred in Dynasty, because next year he'll be
Speaker 3: thirty two, and you know, as these players age further
Speaker 3: into their thirties, there's their values just consistently go down.
Speaker 3: I'm less absent certain extraordinary circumstances, and I'm just very
Speaker 3: leery of where I'm a child is going to be,
Speaker 3: especially coming off a very serious injury and surgery, and
Speaker 3: I just it's a guy that I'm just off right now.
Speaker 1: Altogether, he had two things and you meant sell, you
Speaker 1: said bye, but you meant the last sell.
Speaker 2: You know, he had the wrist.
Speaker 1: I think it was fracture at the beginning of the year,
Speaker 1: and then he just underwent like I think it was
Speaker 1: like a tennis elbow type.
Speaker 2: Of surgery in the off season. You don't love that.
Speaker 1: You don't love those type of Sure, they could clean
Speaker 1: everything up and we can get good to go. I
Speaker 1: lean a little bit more into the by category, but this,
Speaker 1: I think this one is a fine line. It's like,
Speaker 1: if he is being held at the top thirty or
Speaker 1: thirty five standard, then I think he's being overvalued and
Speaker 1: you might be able to consolidate and may if you
Speaker 1: could get I mean, I don't know how you personal
Speaker 1: If you get Royce Lewis for Manny Machado and Dynasty,
Speaker 1: I would want that, yeah, But I'm saying like in
Speaker 1: some league there might be that mentality where those don't
Speaker 1: quite equate even CJ. Abrams, for all of his negatives
Speaker 1: are positives. Whichever way you look at it, Abrams might
Speaker 1: not be in some of that similar value as Machado,
Speaker 1: so that it's an interesting side where you end up
Speaker 1: taking this and you've taken this to another really interesting
Speaker 1: spot at shortstop, and we're actually going to focus on
Speaker 1: two of them. I'm going to focus on the top
Speaker 1: guy though. This is the major league player. This is
Speaker 1: the biggest name we are going to talk about of
Speaker 1: any player in the Dynasty Cells today. So it's shortstop
Speaker 1: is who Tray Turner?
Speaker 3: All right? So he's thirty years old now, a thirty
Speaker 3: year old speedster, a player who relies a lot of
Speaker 3: his value is derived from his speed. It's just scary.
Speaker 3: Once players hit their thirties, they typically start slowing down.
Speaker 3: It's very clear there's a ton of evidence for that. Obviously,
Speaker 3: he's still incredibly fast, but he's also hitting behind Kyle
Speaker 3: Schober in that Phillies lineup, and so the opportunities to
Speaker 3: steal bases are limited anyway, so he just is going
Speaker 3: to have less opportunity to use the speed. The biggest
Speaker 3: concerns I have with Trace Hearner are the declining contact rates.
Speaker 3: I am always trying to pay attention to contact rates
Speaker 3: because I think that they are very crucial for players
Speaker 3: like Turner who do rely on a healthy amount of contact.
Speaker 3: His whiff rate jumped almost to thirty percent last year.
Speaker 3: His own contact rate was a career low at eighty
Speaker 3: two point two percent, and he was, of course disastrous
Speaker 3: for the most part for the first half of the season.
Speaker 3: Just that final hot stretch to end the season kind
Speaker 3: of completely saved this season. But you know, if that
Speaker 3: cold stretch lasted longer, which it could in the future,
Speaker 3: you're going to see a player who could really see
Speaker 3: his value completely crash and burn. And that is my
Speaker 3: biggest concern with Tray Turner. I think the power and
Speaker 3: speed expectations should be more limited than what we've seen
Speaker 3: from him over the past past three years or so,
Speaker 3: and with the declining contact rates, he's not going to
Speaker 3: hit for the averages that he's has hit for in
Speaker 3: the past. You know, last year hit two sixty six.
Speaker 3: You know, I think something along those lines is what
Speaker 3: I would generally expect from him moving forward. So I
Speaker 3: just think it's a little it's just a scary profile
Speaker 3: for me, you know, he's still being drafted very high
Speaker 3: in redrafted. I think then Dyacy generally you're going to
Speaker 3: see a lot more a lot of hype still with him,
Speaker 3: and I think he's a deaf. He's a player that
Speaker 3: I would one hundred percent fade even more in OBP formats.
Speaker 3: He's a player that I don't think people fade enough
Speaker 3: in OBP formats because he's, you know, a very aggressive hitter.
Speaker 3: He typically has you know, about fifty percentage point differential
Speaker 3: between his average and OVP, which means he just has
Speaker 3: far less impact in OBP formats generally, so I would
Speaker 3: be I'm getting off of Turner. I don't dislike Turner.
Speaker 3: It always depends on the value you can get up
Speaker 3: for him. But if he's getting valued as like a
Speaker 3: borderline top twenty dynasty asset, I would be selling hard.
Speaker 1: You know, A move I made in redraft and I'm
Speaker 1: posting my redeff ranks for posting this week on in
Speaker 1: this league and they'll be over on Fantasy Pros probably
Speaker 1: right around the same time, is I'm of Corey Seger
Speaker 1: above Trey Turner in redraft leagues, and I know that
Speaker 1: might not feel popular because of stolen bases. But there
Speaker 1: are a few bats to me that are worthwhile sacrificing
Speaker 1: stolen bases for Corey Seeger is one of them.
Speaker 2: And I made that move.
Speaker 1: And when you're talking about Trey Turner's value, not even
Speaker 1: trying to compare a secer in him, but like you
Speaker 1: could make a you could probably get a Jackson Holiday
Speaker 1: plus deal done, and I know, like I know they'll
Speaker 1: are going to feel relatively similar and similar in like
Speaker 1: true dynasties. Funny enough, in the the Klegg Dynasty draft
Speaker 1: I was in, Turner went to eight and Jackson Holiday
Speaker 1: went to nine. So it's not unfeasible feasible to think that,
Speaker 1: like you could get a plus move on a win
Speaker 1: now team that doesn't you know that thinks they're selling
Speaker 1: on the hype of Jackson Holiday if you have some fear,
Speaker 1: so that is Trey Turner in there.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Turner's average draft position on those and those drafts
Speaker 3: was twenty point one, so you know if he's being
Speaker 3: valued at that that and this is an OBP draft,
Speaker 3: mind you right, he should not be a top three
Speaker 3: player period in OBP. In my mind, and even in
Speaker 3: regular standard five by five, I would not take him
Speaker 3: that high at twenty, So I just yeah, at his
Speaker 3: current value, people are still like in love with the
Speaker 3: name value. They're not recognizing, my mind, what's clear decline.
Speaker 2: So I'm off the other one. I want to mention it.
Speaker 1: By the way, the next three it's all gonna be
Speaker 1: fun because Jesse is just absolutely crap on everybody's excitement hype.
Speaker 1: But the reason we're going to do this one real quick,
Speaker 1: just a quick one on this is he showed up
Speaker 1: in the buy episode last week where Tim Kanak is
Speaker 1: buying Jordan Lawler.
Speaker 3: You're selling, I am, And again I want to say
Speaker 3: it really depends on contexts because I think that if
Speaker 3: people are value him as like a top five prospect,
Speaker 3: I think you sell. But I've seen him being drafted
Speaker 3: outside of like top ten in a lot of these drafts,
Speaker 3: and I've actually gotten chairs of Lawler because of where
Speaker 3: his value has been. It's been just like very reasonable,
Speaker 3: way outside the top one hundred. I will buy it
Speaker 3: all day at that value. But you know, I think
Speaker 3: that if you're valuing him as like a top seventy,
Speaker 3: top sixty dynasty asset or player, I think that that
Speaker 3: is way too high. Now, his average draft position in
Speaker 3: those max is eighty eight. That's not bad. Honestly, I
Speaker 3: think that's not bad. But my biggest concern with Lawler
Speaker 3: is I think that there is not as much impact
Speaker 3: as I think some people expect or think there is there.
Speaker 3: The evs are far from impressive. I mean they're basically
Speaker 3: borderline honestly. I mean, at the top end, EV's are
Speaker 3: close to average, but generally on the whole, his evs
Speaker 3: just don't jump off the page. There's just not a
Speaker 3: ton of power. He's not a very big guy either.
Speaker 3: He's a speedster. I think that if you have the
Speaker 3: expectation to think that maybe he could be Tray Turner,
Speaker 3: which is what I kind of think he could be
Speaker 3: like Trey Turner, obviously there's a massive risks there. Still
Speaker 3: then that's fine. I think that that's a fine expectation
Speaker 3: to still have with Lawler because I do really like
Speaker 3: the hit tool. I think it's something that some I
Speaker 3: think that's it's interesting because you see so much mixed
Speaker 3: opinion about his hit tool. But he does have a
Speaker 3: very solid played approach. He makes a lot of contact,
Speaker 3: But I really questioned where the impact ultimately lie. And
Speaker 3: you know that kind of scares me away.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think that's where the risk is.
Speaker 1: I think it's too early to process who he's going
Speaker 1: to be and where he's going to be, but you can,
Speaker 1: obviously you have to look at the data that's been there.
Speaker 1: He is a wildly successful minor league career. He did
Speaker 1: really great in the areas in a fall league when
Speaker 1: he was here, But there's been some injuries, he's there's
Speaker 1: definitely some questionable power stuff that's out there. He's an
Speaker 1: aggressive base runner, though, so we'll see, We'll see where
Speaker 1: it goes and maybe really very real.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I've always thought he could be a poor man's Bobby Witt,
Speaker 1: and I think that's the best case scenario. But it
Speaker 1: might be instead of thirty fifty like Bobby Witt, it's
Speaker 1: like twenty thirty with a two fifty two to sixty
Speaker 1: batting average, And that might be the high and that
Speaker 1: that is what he would be very good.
Speaker 2: That's what you would bank on him being.
Speaker 1: Like a top sixty or seventy player if you believe
Speaker 1: that's going to be the case. And the hit tool
Speaker 1: does speak to it all, right, last two, this is
Speaker 1: what I was talking about. Any of that hype you're
Speaker 1: getting for this season, it's going to go out the window,
Speaker 1: as Jesse is going to take your favorite outfielder, as
Speaker 1: they know he is a cell.
Speaker 2: So let's hear it.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 3: Nolan Jones, which again I'm gonna say is interesting since
Speaker 3: I did draft him in that cleg mack, but it
Speaker 3: was an OBIP mock. I really do still think Nolan Jones.
Speaker 3: He's just gotten far more valuable in OBP formats generally.
Speaker 3: So my big concerns with him are similar to what
Speaker 3: you what I said with Gelaf. The contact is incredibly scary. Uh.
Speaker 3: The zone contact for Nolan Jones was seventy one point
Speaker 3: five percent this past year in the major league level.
Speaker 3: I think that that contact rate, married with his patient approach,
Speaker 3: is just a recipe for massive amounts of strikeouts. I
Speaker 3: think you know a three true outcomes player. If you
Speaker 3: have that expectation, that's perfectly fine. But I think that
Speaker 3: he also had the highest batting average of balls and
Speaker 3: play if any player at the major league level last
Speaker 3: year with like three hundred play appearances or something, it
Speaker 3: was over four hundred. I think you have to very
Speaker 3: heavily regress his batting average. I think if the batting
Speaker 3: average falls fifty points, I think that is, you know,
Speaker 3: would be a good day. Honestly, if he's hitting two
Speaker 3: forty seven or two fifty, I'd be happy with that production.
Speaker 3: But I think many people might not be. And I
Speaker 3: think that some projections of that I'm seeing, the earlier
Speaker 3: projections I think are a little bit too positive with
Speaker 3: his batting average. Now I get the course field effect.
Speaker 3: The course field effect gives you inflated batting average, your
Speaker 3: balls in play, and you're gonna hit for a higher average. Generally,
Speaker 3: that means you're going to be putting balls in play,
Speaker 3: which is the big problem with Nolan Jones, because he,
Speaker 3: like I said, I think there's a real chance that
Speaker 3: we could see, you know, easily forty percent of his
Speaker 3: play appearances or strikehouse or walks or more. I could
Speaker 3: see that very easily. And that means he's putting balls
Speaker 3: less balls in play, which means he's not taking advantage
Speaker 3: of the course field effect as much as he as
Speaker 3: you want to see players take advantage of us like,
Speaker 3: so far, be as aggressive as you want put those
Speaker 3: balls in play. Uh, you're not gonna see it from
Speaker 3: Roland Jones. Now, the power is very real. I really
Speaker 3: do buy the speed breakout in a lot all the ways.
Speaker 3: I think there's a chance he's a twenty twenty player,
Speaker 3: but like Zach Giloff, he might be a twenty tour
Speaker 3: player who hits you know, thirty.
Speaker 2: Forty one hundred percent agree.
Speaker 1: I do not believe the average is at a high,
Speaker 1: high level. I think this is like a I want
Speaker 1: to say Schwarber, but I think the levels of averaged
Speaker 1: OBP could be similar. I think this is like two
Speaker 1: forty on a good year with like a three eighty OBP.
Speaker 1: Like that's the type of guy that he can be,
Speaker 1: which is great for OBP leagues, but standard head head
Speaker 1: roto leagues. I just don't think the average is going
Speaker 1: to get there, and I think that's what makes him tough.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think an OBP. I really actually like his value,
Speaker 3: but I think it's standard, uh like average five by
Speaker 3: five leagues.
Speaker 2: I do not final one.
Speaker 1: How about a pitcher and how about a bitcher that
Speaker 1: everybody is excited about. I'm gonna be honest with you,
Speaker 1: the more I've dug in for this year, I think
Speaker 1: the hype makes all the sense, and I want to
Speaker 1: buy it is a little alarming when I see his rank,
Speaker 1: or I do a show with Scott White and he
Speaker 1: talks about Tarik Schooble, who I'm going to break here,
Speaker 1: But I I feel like I know the general consensus
Speaker 1: of where you're going to go as far as hype.
Speaker 1: But tell us why you are selling Treek Schooble in Dynasty.
Speaker 3: Well, the hype's wild. He's wild, wild wild wild. He
Speaker 3: average draft position I believe in redraft is like top fifty,
Speaker 3: which is wild to me.
Speaker 2: Scott having at SP nine.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, we have to remember last year he
Speaker 3: didn't throw many innings, so you know how many innings
Speaker 3: are going to be allowed He's going to be even
Speaker 3: allowed to throw this year? I think it's open question.
Speaker 3: You know. I think that maybe one fifty. Uh you know,
Speaker 3: I think if you're expecting him to go like one
Speaker 3: eighty this year, I think that is hoping. It's kind
Speaker 3: of like a little bit too optimistic in my mind. Now,
Speaker 3: there's a lots alike with Tarik school ball, and I
Speaker 3: do like him a lot. I think that if he's
Speaker 3: being drafted in reach raft as a top fifty player,
Speaker 3: that means in a lot of Dynasty formats, he's going
Speaker 3: to be potentially drafted as like a top forty player
Speaker 3: because he's much younger than a lot of the pitchers
Speaker 3: that would typically be drafted ahead of him. You know,
Speaker 3: he of course was fantastic in his debut, all right,
Speaker 3: So his average draft position in these dynasty dugout ADP
Speaker 3: was sixty two. So you know that's where we're seeing
Speaker 3: him right now generally in dynasty. So my big problem
Speaker 3: with scoot Ball is I really don't like his fastball.
Speaker 3: His fastball's something that he was actually known for when
Speaker 3: he was coming up as a prospect, but his fastball
Speaker 3: shape is not good. What made it more viable this
Speaker 3: past year is his big velocity games. You know, his
Speaker 3: fastball lass he jumped like one point five miles an
Speaker 3: hour coming off of you know, serious arm injury. And
Speaker 3: how he's whether he's going to be able for one,
Speaker 3: maintained that type of velocity over a full season and
Speaker 3: two actually as successful as he was. I think it's
Speaker 3: really questionable. I think given the fastball shape, I don't
Speaker 3: even know if it's an average pitch that you know,
Speaker 3: if you look at stuff plus grades for his fastball,
Speaker 3: it's below average. It's you know a borderline pitch. I
Speaker 3: think it's better than I think what stuff plus is
Speaker 3: giving it credit for, but still just not It punches
Speaker 3: way below it's velocity. It's average velocity last year was
Speaker 3: ninety five point eight miles an hour. Is a sinker
Speaker 3: was ninety five point nine. Where I do think, I
Speaker 3: really like Scoop and I think where he can shine
Speaker 3: is his change up is fantastic. I've all I've been
Speaker 3: a fan of his change up since he kind of
Speaker 3: was able to retool it in twenty I believe it
Speaker 3: was twenty twenty.
Speaker 1: What year was that, twenty twenty one or is it
Speaker 1: twenty twenty?
Speaker 3: It was twenty twenty two, very legitimately retooled his change
Speaker 3: there like it was a new pitch. I really loved
Speaker 3: it that year, and it's it's been as good, if
Speaker 3: not better than that, this year this past So I
Speaker 3: really do think the change ups good. I think the
Speaker 3: change is going to allow the fastball to play a
Speaker 3: lot better than it it really is. In actuality, he
Speaker 3: made a lot of strides with his slider. His slider
Speaker 3: is profiling a lot better now. It's missing bats at
Speaker 3: a much better rate too.
Speaker 2: But the big butts come in here. But let's see.
Speaker 3: But but the fastball is just not I think going
Speaker 3: to be a successful pitch, and it scares me. And
Speaker 3: I think that if you if he if the fastball
Speaker 3: Vlosi comes down to even what it was before, I
Speaker 3: think we're just going to see a much different pitcher.
Speaker 3: It's still gonna be a quality are mind you, But
Speaker 3: I think he's not a top fifty guy.
Speaker 2: Who would you rather have a dynasty Grayson Rodriguez.
Speaker 3: Or school ball Grace and Rodriguez.
Speaker 1: Easy Senga or Schooball school You know what interesting is
Speaker 1: both went ahead of drink schoobl in the MUCKs that
Speaker 1: we're referencing here.
Speaker 2: So yeah, very very interesting.
Speaker 1: His hype is at the biggest.
Speaker 2: That I can recall. But do as you will.
Speaker 1: Those are some dynasty buys from Jesse wrote follow him
Speaker 1: on Twitter.
Speaker 2: At j A wrote R O C H E six.
Speaker 2: You can also catch them over at Baseball Perspectives. What's
Speaker 2: going on? What do you got to plug here?
Speaker 1: What do you got going on in the near future?
Speaker 1: Pods writing what's happening right now?
Speaker 3: We're doing the top ten or the top top prospect
Speaker 3: lists for each team, and I'm adding the fantasy takes
Speaker 3: for each of the players, including a reckless comp for
Speaker 3: each player. I try to, like, I spend a lot
Speaker 3: of time on it's weird you're coming through baseball players.
Speaker 3: What did you just do?
Speaker 2: What team did you just do?
Speaker 3: I just did the Brewers?
Speaker 1: All right, give me your reckless comp for Cooper Pratt?
Speaker 3: We actually so he wasn't in their top ten. So
Speaker 3: I only do the.
Speaker 1: Top lasphemis the last famis they don't have Cooper Pratt
Speaker 1: in their top ten.
Speaker 3: Mate, honestly, I agree, don't. I don't make their rankings.
Speaker 3: It's a you know, real life based rankings. But like
Speaker 3: their bottom their number ten was Daniel Gillarty, and I
Speaker 3: wouldn't put him in top ten for example, to.
Speaker 2: Be above him.
Speaker 1: What if you recall, like one of the most ridiculous comps,
Speaker 1: you gave your reckless comp of any of anybody?
Speaker 3: Well, I guess on the Brewers, I think Jackson Trio
Speaker 3: could be another Julio Rodriguez. I think that's uh. Then
Speaker 3: I have like Jefferson Quero is Jan Gomes. So I
Speaker 3: just call that reckless. But it just shows you catching prospects. Man.
Speaker 3: Don't expect a lot from them.
Speaker 1: No, and Cuero got a bunch of hype. Jesse Roach
Speaker 1: Baseball Perspectives. Follow him on Twitter, one of the best.
Speaker 1: He's a must follow in the Dynasty world. Thank you
Speaker 1: so much for hanging with us and giving us players
Speaker 1: to sell here in Dynasty.
Speaker 3: Thanks a lot, man, and there you go.
Speaker 1: Thank you to Jesse Roach for taking the time to
Speaker 1: join me in talking about all those sell some great names.
Speaker 1: Some I agree, some I disagree, and that's all good.
Speaker 1: You guys can let us know what you think always
Speaker 1: over in the discord. You can tweet at me at
Speaker 1: is it the Welsh Fantasy pros all of that great stuff.
Speaker 1: And hopefully, as we are doing this episode right before Christmas,
Speaker 1: have a fantastic holiday. We will probably have one episode
Speaker 1: off next week with the Christmas week, and then we
Speaker 1: will be kicking it hard in twenty twenty four. I
Speaker 1: got a full schedule of stuff on the dock at,
Speaker 1: one of which being a mock draft that I will
Speaker 1: be putting together and will be breaking down. So make
Speaker 1: sure you're subscribe to the podcast so you miss none
Speaker 1: of the episodes. Follow me on Twitter, atzitthe Welsh and
Speaker 1: thank you all for hanging at the Fantasy Pros Dynasty
Speaker 1: Baseball Podcast.
Speaker 2: We'll talk to you next time, by friends.
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