WEBVTT - Dynasty Baseball Players to Sell (Ep. 751) 0:00:05.440 --> 0:00:08.760 Welcome in friends to the Fantasy Pros Dynasty Baseball Podcast 0:00:08.880 --> 0:00:12.680 right here on Fantasy Pros and the Leading off Baseball Feed. 0:00:12.720 --> 0:00:14.200 I'm your host, Chris Welsh. 0:00:14.280 --> 0:00:15.120 You can find on. 0:00:15.040 --> 0:00:18.840 Twitter at is It the Welsh. We continue our Dynasty 0:00:18.880 --> 0:00:24.320 Baseball series, obviously the Dynasty Baseball Podcast. Today we're talking 0:00:24.360 --> 0:00:27.480 about who we're selling. Last week we had Tim kannak 0:00:27.560 --> 0:00:32.080 On talking about Dynasty bys. This week, Jesse Roach from 0:00:32.120 --> 0:00:34.720 Baseball Perspectus is going to be joining us to talk 0:00:34.760 --> 0:00:39.519 about the Dynasty cells, go by position, top players that 0:00:39.920 --> 0:00:42.760 he is looking at selling overall. So we're playing a 0:00:42.800 --> 0:00:45.280 little bit of the negative side today though though there 0:00:45.360 --> 0:00:49.960 are some Dynasty bys also kind of sprinkled into the conversation. 0:00:50.320 --> 0:00:52.760 Thank you, guys all for your awesome Dynasty support here 0:00:52.800 --> 0:00:55.920 for Fantasy pro So make sure that you guys subscribe 0:00:55.960 --> 0:00:58.320 to the podcast and check out all the great features 0:00:58.360 --> 0:01:01.520 baseball is going to be hitting in twenty twenty four. 0:01:02.080 --> 0:01:04.760 Many may have already heard, but Fantasy Pros has brought 0:01:04.840 --> 0:01:08.520 me on full time. I am full time Fantasy Pros. 0:01:08.920 --> 0:01:12.000 You know it comes with that lots and lots of 0:01:12.120 --> 0:01:15.240 baseball talk. So we're gonna have a great twenty twenty 0:01:15.240 --> 0:01:20.000 four with all the redraft and continuation of more Dynasty conversations. 0:01:20.120 --> 0:01:22.600 When you sign up on the premium side of Fantasy Pros, 0:01:22.640 --> 0:01:24.600 you can get into the discord. We got lots of 0:01:24.680 --> 0:01:27.760 rooms in there. We'll have some interactions, we may even 0:01:27.880 --> 0:01:33.040 have some Dynasty Discord only shows. There's a whole lot 0:01:33.040 --> 0:01:35.240 of other reasons. So go to Fantasypros dot com right now. 0:01:35.280 --> 0:01:37.720 You can check out how you can get access, and 0:01:37.760 --> 0:01:38.000 you can. 0:01:38.040 --> 0:01:41.000 Check out all the other great features. Let's not wait anymore. 0:01:41.120 --> 0:01:44.840 My friend Jesse Roach from Baseball Perspectives joining us to 0:01:44.880 --> 0:01:47.960 talk about all these Dynasty cells. So let's go do it. 0:01:50.360 --> 0:01:53.560 Joining me here on the Fantasy Pros Dynasty Baseball podcast 0:01:53.600 --> 0:01:55.880 is Jesse Roach, who you can find as a writer 0:01:55.960 --> 0:01:59.600 and rankover at Baseball Perspectives. I have known Jesse for 0:01:59.680 --> 0:02:03.200 quite time, done lots of episodes, and that is why 0:02:03.240 --> 0:02:06.120 we have got him not only on the Dynasties the 0:02:06.200 --> 0:02:09.480 Cells Dynasty Cells, because Jesse is not afraid to tell 0:02:09.520 --> 0:02:13.360 you how it is. This is a difficult subject. Jesse, 0:02:14.280 --> 0:02:16.160 I'll even tell you this. I was going to tell 0:02:16.200 --> 0:02:19.040 you all the details, but I was perusing some content 0:02:19.120 --> 0:02:21.760 kind of figuring out maybe in a certain place that 0:02:21.800 --> 0:02:24.320 we know, and I was looking, hey, what did well 0:02:24.400 --> 0:02:24.919 last year? 0:02:24.960 --> 0:02:26.240 What did poorly? 0:02:26.680 --> 0:02:30.320 And the poor was focusing on the negative. The negative 0:02:30.360 --> 0:02:32.880 stuff didn't do as well as some of the positive 0:02:32.880 --> 0:02:36.079 stuff from a content perspective. But you do need to 0:02:36.120 --> 0:02:39.839 have the conversation. And what a better conversation to have 0:02:40.000 --> 0:02:43.560 than digging in on dynasty cells here. So I didn't 0:02:43.560 --> 0:02:44.919 even get to give you a proper introduction. 0:02:45.560 --> 0:02:49.040 Buddy, Hey, it's great to be on I love talking cells. 0:02:49.080 --> 0:02:51.920 I think a lot of people who know me in 0:02:51.960 --> 0:02:55.920 the industry understand that I am not afraid to be 0:02:55.960 --> 0:02:59.359 a DeBie downer with players. I often will throw cold 0:02:59.400 --> 0:03:02.040 water because there's just so much hype in our in 0:03:02.080 --> 0:03:05.280 our space, that's like all we see just about so 0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:09.280 I like to throw cold water on players. I guess 0:03:09.320 --> 0:03:11.800 the expectations that people have, at least for players as 0:03:11.919 --> 0:03:14.160 much as possible, because we have to be realistic. 0:03:14.360 --> 0:03:17.320 I think that I presume I don't know whether you 0:03:17.320 --> 0:03:19.280 are or not, but if you were a gambler, presume 0:03:19.280 --> 0:03:21.360 you would be someone that would find some good unders. 0:03:21.400 --> 0:03:23.480 You'd be betting some unders you could you would be 0:03:23.520 --> 0:03:26.000 able to identify the like Andrew Erickson here at Fantasy bro, 0:03:26.040 --> 0:03:27.880 you'd be able to identify some unders, but you're right. 0:03:28.639 --> 0:03:32.440 In the dynasty space, the cells are so important, I 0:03:32.440 --> 0:03:35.880 think more important than in redraft. Like redraft is fun 0:03:35.920 --> 0:03:38.880 and taking advantage. I think buys are more important in redraft, 0:03:38.880 --> 0:03:40.480 but you know, when you can get out, it's great. 0:03:40.520 --> 0:03:43.560 But dynasty hype is king. 0:03:44.080 --> 0:03:46.440 And you know, we had Tim Kanak on last week, 0:03:46.480 --> 0:03:48.960 and you know Tim would talk about when you're looking 0:03:49.000 --> 0:03:51.920 at like Ottana leagues, No definitely has kind of a 0:03:52.000 --> 0:03:54.800 stock system element to it, where you want to find 0:03:54.800 --> 0:03:56.880 the right proper time where you can get out, and 0:03:56.880 --> 0:04:00.640 almost everybody has a price to get out. Every dynasty 0:04:00.680 --> 0:04:04.840 has created differently that has arbitration and money systems. Some 0:04:05.040 --> 0:04:07.960 leagues you can just keep guys forever, but that doesn't 0:04:08.000 --> 0:04:11.520 mean that there isn't a time where everybody can be sold. 0:04:11.840 --> 0:04:13.680 So we are going to put some focus on some 0:04:13.760 --> 0:04:18.720 players that Jesse has identified as cells in Dynasty, and 0:04:18.760 --> 0:04:21.280 we did positionally last week on the buy, so we're 0:04:21.279 --> 0:04:23.120 going to do the same on the cells this week. 0:04:23.240 --> 0:04:23.480 Jesse. 0:04:23.960 --> 0:04:26.160 So let's get right into it and let's look at 0:04:26.200 --> 0:04:28.599 catchers we have. We're going to focus more on the 0:04:28.600 --> 0:04:30.520 major league side. We do have a couple of prospects, 0:04:30.520 --> 0:04:32.000 and this is an instant where I'm going to. 0:04:31.920 --> 0:04:32.880 Talk about the prospects. 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:37.279 But let's start with your first Dynasty stell At Catcher. 0:04:37.480 --> 0:04:40.320 Sure, I guess at the outset. I want to say 0:04:40.360 --> 0:04:44.760 that selling in Dynasty is often context driven. You know, 0:04:44.880 --> 0:04:46.920 I think it's very obvious to say, oh, well, an 0:04:46.960 --> 0:04:50.440 aging player is a great cell, because when if they 0:04:50.440 --> 0:04:53.839 have a bad season, all of a sudden, there's stock plummets, 0:04:53.880 --> 0:04:56.200 it craters because they're all you know, they're in their 0:04:56.200 --> 0:05:00.080 mid thirties. Sometimes Freddie Freeman right now, for example, you 0:05:00.120 --> 0:05:03.719 know he's thirty four, fairly safe profile generally, but you know, 0:05:03.760 --> 0:05:05.880 if he had a bad season, if you want started 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:08.240 to go the way of Joey Vado, I mean, his 0:05:08.720 --> 0:05:12.880 stock in fantasy, you know, his value will just completely fall. 0:05:13.440 --> 0:05:16.160 The floor will fall out. So I don't really like 0:05:16.200 --> 0:05:19.719 to focus necessarily on aging players because I think it's obvious. 0:05:20.040 --> 0:05:21.719 You know, a lot of these players are going to 0:05:21.760 --> 0:05:23.920 be good selling cells. I mean we're seeing that already 0:05:23.920 --> 0:05:26.680 with like Paul Goldschmidt. You know, his value is creted 0:05:26.839 --> 0:05:27.400 very quickly. 0:05:27.600 --> 0:05:28.960 You're you're an insane person. 0:05:29.160 --> 0:05:31.800 I literally was waiting to jump in because I was 0:05:32.040 --> 0:05:35.119 literally going to bring up Paul Goldman. You read my mind, 0:05:35.560 --> 0:05:39.640 because you're exactly right. He had a poor ish season 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:41.680 because of his age. 0:05:41.839 --> 0:05:42.840 He's tumbling. 0:05:42.880 --> 0:05:45.640 As far as value goes, I would argue he's a 0:05:45.760 --> 0:05:49.520 huge buy. Expected stats through the roof tell a different 0:05:49.560 --> 0:05:52.880 story working at drive line, which can be you know, 0:05:53.080 --> 0:05:55.800 blah blah for some people, Oh drive line. But one 0:05:55.800 --> 0:05:58.640 of the things, it's just funny because I was this 0:05:58.720 --> 0:06:00.560 was something that has stood out. Just wrote in the 0:06:00.560 --> 0:06:03.200 Fantasy Black book Joe Piezapias, which is out now everybody 0:06:03.200 --> 0:06:05.479 can go check out. We did some Dynasty stuff in there. 0:06:05.760 --> 0:06:08.799 Actually did a Dynasty mock with a breakdown. But gold 0:06:08.800 --> 0:06:10.640 Schmid was one that stood out to me so much 0:06:10.720 --> 0:06:12.760 in my writing because you go and look, you see 0:06:12.760 --> 0:06:15.400 all these expected numbers that we're kind of telling you 0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:18.280 a different story. But one thing you also saw was 0:06:18.480 --> 0:06:21.440 you could see that bat speed seemed like it was 0:06:21.480 --> 0:06:24.160 going away. Because hard hit numbers, if I'm remembering correctly 0:06:24.160 --> 0:06:26.800 from what I wrote, they sustain. But the lawn ch 0:06:26.839 --> 0:06:29.880 agle dropped and I think it dropped significantly, So in 0:06:29.880 --> 0:06:32.599 my brain I started to just started to put together 0:06:32.680 --> 0:06:36.520 like maybe the bat speed was becoming a problem where 0:06:36.560 --> 0:06:38.800 all these underlying things worked in favor. And then when 0:06:38.920 --> 0:06:41.560 you know it, as I'm in the process of writing it, 0:06:41.880 --> 0:06:45.520 I find he's at driveline working on bat speed the 0:06:45.640 --> 0:06:47.760 exact same thing. So this is just like a little 0:06:47.800 --> 0:06:49.479 tiny thing I'm adding and you'll add to it. But 0:06:49.680 --> 0:06:51.800 it is so funny you brought him up because he's 0:06:51.839 --> 0:06:54.679 a prime example of what you were leading to. Yet 0:06:54.839 --> 0:06:57.880 sometimes those guys can actually be dynasty buys because that 0:06:57.960 --> 0:06:58.480 is cratered. 0:06:58.880 --> 0:07:02.760 Yes, exactly. I think Goldshman's a good opportunity by right now, 0:07:02.800 --> 0:07:06.320 given that a lot of people will not. He's typically 0:07:06.400 --> 0:07:08.479 drafted well outside of top one hundred. You know, I 0:07:08.480 --> 0:07:12.160 think I still have him within my top one fifty personally, 0:07:12.760 --> 0:07:15.000 but I wouldn't be shocked to see people push him 0:07:15.000 --> 0:07:17.160 outside to top two hundred. I will tell you in 0:07:17.240 --> 0:07:20.360 dynasty leagues in practice, you know, when my rankings are 0:07:20.360 --> 0:07:25.320 basically in a vacuum, right, they're context neutral, So you know, 0:07:25.400 --> 0:07:27.840 in a vacuum, that's how I value him. But obviously, 0:07:27.840 --> 0:07:30.520 if you're a rebuilding team, you're not placing any value 0:07:30.720 --> 0:07:34.440 on Paul out, So the number of people who are 0:07:34.440 --> 0:07:37.400 willing to buy him is very limited. So if there's 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:39.160 someone willing to sell him, they're going to have a 0:07:39.200 --> 0:07:42.520 limited number of teams to even work with. So if 0:07:42.560 --> 0:07:45.400 you're one of those teams, you can often you know, 0:07:45.640 --> 0:07:49.040 get a good value because there's just not much competition. Great. 0:07:49.080 --> 0:07:49.720 So that's just a. 0:07:50.200 --> 0:07:52.920 Great that's a really great context point of knowing the 0:07:52.960 --> 0:07:56.120 market is a lot less guys get thirty three and over. 0:07:56.440 --> 0:07:59.560 That market is much smaller to the buy now and 0:07:59.640 --> 0:08:01.800 coming off of a poor year, it just doesn't exist. 0:08:01.960 --> 0:08:03.840 It didn't mean to make this about Paul gold Smith, 0:08:03.880 --> 0:08:05.480 but I thought it was a prime example. And I 0:08:05.520 --> 0:08:07.920 think your concrest is really important. So what people can 0:08:07.960 --> 0:08:09.560 know is this isn't going to be a list of 0:08:09.600 --> 0:08:11.720 thirty six year old guys and above that you're about 0:08:11.720 --> 0:08:13.640 to drop here, and this catcher sure isn't. 0:08:13.960 --> 0:08:16.880 No, it's a William contraras so he's twenty five year old. 0:08:16.920 --> 0:08:19.720 He's going to be twenty six in a week. So 0:08:19.920 --> 0:08:23.480 you know he's a Christmas Eve baby, So happy soon 0:08:23.480 --> 0:08:26.880 to be birthday, William Contras. But you know he's coming 0:08:26.920 --> 0:08:29.480 off a very strong season, very strong second half with 0:08:29.520 --> 0:08:32.040 the Brewers. You know, he had a six hundred and 0:08:32.040 --> 0:08:35.760 eleven plate appearances, seventeen home runs, eighty six runs scored, 0:08:35.840 --> 0:08:38.400 seventy eight RBI, six stolem bases to go on top 0:08:38.440 --> 0:08:42.160 of it, and at two eighty nine average. So he 0:08:42.200 --> 0:08:46.560 had a fantastic season. Huge strides defensively too, which I think, 0:08:46.720 --> 0:08:49.280 you know, for fantasy, maybe that it matters only to 0:08:49.320 --> 0:08:51.600 the point that it's more likely he's going to stick 0:08:51.600 --> 0:08:54.000 a catcher long term. It's almost a lock at this point. 0:08:54.160 --> 0:08:58.360 But my big concern is I'm seeing people draft ranking 0:08:58.440 --> 0:09:02.400 him as high as second dynasty catchers behind Adlie Rushman. 0:09:03.080 --> 0:09:05.480 I think that's a bit of a stretch for a 0:09:05.520 --> 0:09:09.600 few reasons. Right, Yes, he has big power, his evs 0:09:09.640 --> 0:09:12.560 are great, but he hits everything into the ground. His 0:09:12.640 --> 0:09:16.280 ground ball rate has consistently been astronomical. It's fifty five 0:09:16.320 --> 0:09:19.920 percent last year. It's really difficult for players to change 0:09:20.040 --> 0:09:25.200 launch angle. It requires a lot of swing mechanical changes. 0:09:25.600 --> 0:09:28.280 And if he's putting more balls in the air, all 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:30.520 of a sudden, that batting average is going to start 0:09:30.559 --> 0:09:33.520 to creep down because the more fly balls he hits 0:09:33.600 --> 0:09:35.760 the less the lower the batting average and balls and 0:09:35.800 --> 0:09:37.719 play will be So there's a trade off here. If 0:09:37.720 --> 0:09:40.360 you want that like two eighty two ninety average, it's 0:09:40.400 --> 0:09:43.439 going to come with a very much muted power production. 0:09:43.760 --> 0:09:45.600 But if you are trying to chase the power production 0:09:45.679 --> 0:09:48.400 because you see the underlying exit velocity data and the 0:09:48.440 --> 0:09:52.120 hard hit rates, then you're going to be disappointed because 0:09:52.200 --> 0:09:55.360 the average will go crashing down if he starts putting 0:09:55.400 --> 0:09:57.840 the ball more in the air. So it's just a 0:09:57.880 --> 0:10:00.560 profile that I don't think it's I think there's a 0:10:00.720 --> 0:10:02.680 very strong give and take here with him. I don't 0:10:02.679 --> 0:10:05.840 think that he's a player that has as much growth 0:10:05.840 --> 0:10:09.280 potential as some people maybe in vision with him. And 0:10:09.360 --> 0:10:11.760 I'm still just concerned generally because I think there's still 0:10:11.760 --> 0:10:14.240 plenty of underlyings were to miss in his game. It 0:10:14.360 --> 0:10:17.880 took a step forward last year. His zone contact rate 0:10:18.040 --> 0:10:21.600 jumped five percentage points from seventy seven point two percent 0:10:21.640 --> 0:10:25.000 to eighty two point two percent, and he's consistently had 0:10:25.400 --> 0:10:28.439 very poor contact rates throughout his career. Last year was 0:10:28.440 --> 0:10:32.520 basically an anomalous season. Are we going to expect him 0:10:32.520 --> 0:10:35.560 to maintain that moving forward? I think that's also a 0:10:35.559 --> 0:10:37.839 bit of a stretch, So I generally think it's a 0:10:37.880 --> 0:10:41.320 profile that has less growth potential and a lot of 0:10:41.480 --> 0:10:44.040 createring potential. And I really don't like where he's being 0:10:44.040 --> 0:10:47.160 priced right now in Dynasty. I do not think he's 0:10:47.200 --> 0:10:51.240 the top one hundred Dynasty player period, and I just 0:10:51.320 --> 0:10:53.760 would be out. I would be trying to sell right now. 0:10:53.840 --> 0:10:55.880 I know it's weird to sell someone who's about to 0:10:55.880 --> 0:10:57.920 be twenty six at catcher, who's coming off a career 0:10:58.000 --> 0:11:01.240 season in a favorable home park on a good offensive team, 0:11:01.320 --> 0:11:02.280 but I would be. 0:11:02.320 --> 0:11:04.160 Yeah and taking a look here. 0:11:04.640 --> 0:11:07.959 He ended up going in giving a shout out to 0:11:08.040 --> 0:11:10.920 Chris Klegg, who was doing some Dynasty mock similar to 0:11:10.960 --> 0:11:17.120 my prospect ones on the Dynasty dugout. Contreras was the 0:11:17.160 --> 0:11:20.439 second catcher taken in Dynasty overall. In this mack of 0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:22.320 the one that I was a part of, and it's 0:11:22.360 --> 0:11:26.120 got a third, I'm sorry third. Will Smith ended up going. 0:11:26.160 --> 0:11:28.080 It looks like second, and he was a third and 0:11:28.120 --> 0:11:30.640 this had He's got some really good Dynasty people just 0:11:30.679 --> 0:11:33.880 in my draft alone. What's interesting is he's the third 0:11:33.960 --> 0:11:36.559 catcher going in NFPC drafts this year, going ahead of 0:11:36.600 --> 0:11:40.080 Will Smith as well. I think early season drafts are 0:11:40.160 --> 0:11:42.200 driving some of it. Age is driving some of it, 0:11:42.400 --> 0:11:45.239 some of the changes are driving it. But I devalue 0:11:45.240 --> 0:11:47.440 catchers a little bit in Dynasty kind of in general. 0:11:47.760 --> 0:11:51.760 So pate price, Yeah, exactly, And projections are great. Steamer 0:11:52.040 --> 0:11:54.480 is projecting twenty five eighty eighty with a two seventy 0:11:54.480 --> 0:11:57.240 batting average and low strikeouts. That's fine if that's the case. 0:11:57.400 --> 0:11:59.320 I'm not with like similar to what you said. If 0:11:59.320 --> 0:12:01.080 those power numbers are going to rise, I think the 0:12:01.080 --> 0:12:03.679 batting average is going to suffer greater. And I'm really 0:12:03.800 --> 0:12:06.400 not sure what the team context they're running RBI numbers 0:12:06.400 --> 0:12:08.720 will be there. Either way, it's a pretty good opportunity 0:12:08.880 --> 0:12:10.920 not to be spending so much time here in catcher. 0:12:11.200 --> 0:12:13.040 You just do have one other really interesting name I 0:12:13.080 --> 0:12:15.720 want to throw as a cell and I'm gonna guess 0:12:15.800 --> 0:12:17.960 this is going to be about hype, which is understandable. 0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:20.440 But Ethan Solace is one that you threw here for Dynasty. 0:12:20.800 --> 0:12:23.640 Yes, So it's funny because I was talking about this 0:12:23.720 --> 0:12:26.800 pre show, is that I actually drafted Ethan Sawace in 0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:30.079 the Prospect one draft. I think it was twenty first 0:12:30.120 --> 0:12:33.480 so overall, so I look, I really like Ethan Sawas. 0:12:34.040 --> 0:12:36.120 I think what you're going to see this offseason is 0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:38.079 all the big national lists are going to come out 0:12:38.080 --> 0:12:39.840 and he's going to be a top five prospect in 0:12:39.880 --> 0:12:43.040 all of baseball and in typical dynasty leagues and a 0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:46.120 lot of them that don't involve maybe more savvy owners. 0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:50.400 They're going to look at those lists and buy that 0:12:50.520 --> 0:12:54.880 hype in a big way. Look, he is eighteen, he's 0:12:54.440 --> 0:12:57.600 on it's even eighteen. Yet he's not even eighteen years old. Yet, 0:12:57.640 --> 0:13:00.320 He's not even eighteen on opening Day, he's said seventeen 0:13:00.360 --> 0:13:03.440 years old. Catchers take a long time to develop. Yes, 0:13:03.480 --> 0:13:06.760 he's on a massively fast track, but doesn't mean he's not. 0:13:06.840 --> 0:13:09.240 He's going to like start stagnating. You know, he's in 0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:11.880 Double A. He's gonna spend probably all year in Double A, 0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:15.559 probably all year in Triple A next year. Yes, he'll 0:13:15.600 --> 0:13:18.360 still probably get to the majors early. But I'm just 0:13:18.640 --> 0:13:22.240 I don't catchers scared of me in dynasty, especially catching prospects, 0:13:22.240 --> 0:13:24.160 for a lot of reasons. You know, if den Bell mounts, 0:13:24.200 --> 0:13:28.360 time is very lengthy for catching prospects, the attrition rates 0:13:28.559 --> 0:13:31.480 very high, and when they get to the majors. As 0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:35.240 you've noted, you know, catchers they have muted production periods. 0:13:35.240 --> 0:13:39.640 So you're going to see flashy hitting power tools maybe 0:13:39.960 --> 0:13:43.440 from analysts for someone like SaaS, but those are going 0:13:43.440 --> 0:13:45.480 to get muted at the pro level. I mean, just 0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:48.880 look at what Adlee Rushman's doing. Fantastic player, but and 0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:51.280 you know, I all tends some purposes. It's a very 0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:54.720 clear plus hit tool with you know, above average power, 0:13:54.840 --> 0:13:57.280 but it plays down in games because it's a long 0:13:57.360 --> 0:14:00.080 season and catchers just are not going to produce like 0:14:00.120 --> 0:14:03.520 other positions, and they're not going to typically play every 0:14:03.600 --> 0:14:08.080 day either. So I just generally I put Solace in 0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:10.480 a way there as a point of his age, and 0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:13.840 also just catchers, I just I don't like dynasty catchers 0:14:13.840 --> 0:14:17.160 at all. For prospects. I would be fading them hard generally, 0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:19.440 and I'd be selling them, especially when I see the 0:14:19.520 --> 0:14:21.520 hype building like it is with Salas. 0:14:21.600 --> 0:14:23.360 Yeah, and you know a lot of people that followed 0:14:23.360 --> 0:14:26.480 me last year knew I was hype trained Ethan Solace. 0:14:26.600 --> 0:14:29.600 So we got solved there should be because he's great well. 0:14:29.440 --> 0:14:31.840 But also this is right around the time where it 0:14:31.920 --> 0:14:35.000 was Solace versus Filman everyone's kind of jaded about the 0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:39.320 j J fifteen class now and everyone just kind of 0:14:39.360 --> 0:14:41.720 dealing with that. And I loved everything I saw with Solace. 0:14:41.760 --> 0:14:43.960 The problem is where I was pushing him as, hey, 0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:46.800 let's get him top seventy five, let's don't be scared, 0:14:46.880 --> 0:14:50.000 get him now he's top twenty, and you referred to 0:14:50.040 --> 0:14:52.480 my I have the prospect one P one ADP mocks, 0:14:52.760 --> 0:14:55.920 which is over on my in this league Patreon. This 0:14:55.960 --> 0:15:00.280 week is posted the ADP. Well, the ADP of him 0:15:00.720 --> 0:15:03.200 is higher than you took him. It's inside the top twenty. 0:15:03.520 --> 0:15:06.560 So from a catcher value standpoint, here's a perspective I'll 0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:11.000 give you. He went at their lows he went, or 0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:12.840 I guess I should say at the highest the highest 0:15:12.880 --> 0:15:15.920 he went. Ethan Salas was one pick away from the 0:15:15.960 --> 0:15:19.600 lowest Jason Domingos win. So for perspective, you could trade 0:15:19.600 --> 0:15:21.720 Ethan Salas pretty much as a one for one to 0:15:21.760 --> 0:15:24.440 get Jason Domingoes. I'm a buyer of Jason Dimingez on 0:15:24.520 --> 0:15:27.040 the injury for this year, and there's a lot of 0:15:27.040 --> 0:15:30.040 other guys in the same general range that you could 0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:32.640 sell him for to get some pretty big stuff. He 0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:34.720 went the highest he went was fourteen in one of 0:15:34.720 --> 0:15:39.480 the leagues I put together, and Yamamoto went after that. 0:15:39.600 --> 0:15:41.520 Now it's a pitcher, But if you're in win now 0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:43.560 versus there's just a lot of stuff you're gonna be 0:15:43.600 --> 0:15:44.840 able to do with the hype that's going to go 0:15:44.880 --> 0:15:48.400 around with Ethan Sallas and it's not going away anytime soon. 0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:53.760 Moving over to first base, Christian in Carnacion Strand he 0:15:53.880 --> 0:15:56.960 comes in. I stole you getting to announce him. What's 0:15:57.000 --> 0:16:02.840 interesting is he absolutely jumps off the page of expected 0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:05.920 stats when you dig deeper, what the hard hit numbers, 0:16:05.960 --> 0:16:09.960 barrel percentage and expected numbers did versus the production. But 0:16:10.040 --> 0:16:13.800 you have him as a cell, yes, because I think 0:16:13.880 --> 0:16:16.160 his approach scares me to death. 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:20.640 You know, he is incredibly aggressive. He's going to swing 0:16:21.120 --> 0:16:24.320 all the time, and I don't really think that what 0:16:24.360 --> 0:16:26.760 we saw at the major league level is necessarily going 0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:28.600 to be something that we're going to see as being 0:16:29.200 --> 0:16:32.280 as sustainable as I'd like, as you'd want to see 0:16:32.320 --> 0:16:34.960 ol a first base only prospect. You know, there's a 0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:37.080 lot of under there's plenty of underlying swing a miss 0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:39.560 in this game as well with an aggressive approach. I 0:16:39.600 --> 0:16:42.720 mean he may not right, you know, have massive strikeout 0:16:42.800 --> 0:16:46.240 numbers because he's swinging all the time. But I just 0:16:46.280 --> 0:16:49.320 don't love that type of profile. I think there's a 0:16:49.360 --> 0:16:53.040 lot of bust risk with him, especially on in an 0:16:53.120 --> 0:16:56.440 organization that has an absolute crowd in the infield right now. 0:16:56.520 --> 0:16:58.640 I mean, obviously they're likely to make a move, but 0:16:58.680 --> 0:17:01.840 even after they trade someone like John Fan India, they're 0:17:01.880 --> 0:17:04.159 still going to have a crowd and they're gonna have 0:17:04.200 --> 0:17:06.160 a lot of mouths to feed, and there's just gonna 0:17:06.200 --> 0:17:11.040 be if he struggles, there's gonna be very little leash 0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:12.840 that he will have this year. I think he will 0:17:12.880 --> 0:17:15.080 go down to Triple A if he struggles out the gate, 0:17:15.400 --> 0:17:18.080 and that scares me because once that happens, his dynasty 0:17:18.320 --> 0:17:21.359 value is going to crash. Even if it's you know, 0:17:21.560 --> 0:17:25.199 typical sophomore you know struggles. You know, we have to 0:17:25.200 --> 0:17:27.879 remember that's what happens typically with a lot of prospects, 0:17:28.119 --> 0:17:32.080 especially prospects that have scary approaches like income Arci on Strand, 0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:35.399 and yeah, the power is big, and he could be 0:17:35.520 --> 0:17:38.480 like Frani early career, Famuel reeis in a lot of 0:17:38.480 --> 0:17:40.439 ways like he could have that kind of like he 0:17:40.480 --> 0:17:43.240 could have that kind of value generation. But I just 0:17:43.320 --> 0:17:46.040 don't love where he's going right now in Dynasty. I 0:17:46.080 --> 0:17:48.760 think it's some it's a point where there's a lot 0:17:48.760 --> 0:17:52.120 of first basemen in that range that I feel more 0:17:52.160 --> 0:17:55.200 comfortable with, and the inn Redraft, for sure, there's a 0:17:55.240 --> 0:17:57.960 lot more first basement that go around him in Redraft 0:17:58.000 --> 0:18:00.359 that I feel more comfortable with. So i'd be to 0:18:00.520 --> 0:18:03.879 sell him right now, especially when there are people that 0:18:03.960 --> 0:18:06.680 I know and really respect that love him and are 0:18:06.800 --> 0:18:10.800 hyping him to the ceiling. So I mean, yeah, he 0:18:10.920 --> 0:18:12.720 hits in a great park. I don't really think great 0:18:12.760 --> 0:18:17.280 American ballpark helps players as much like in Karnosiu and Strand, 0:18:17.280 --> 0:18:19.840 as much as maybe others think. Because the power will 0:18:19.840 --> 0:18:22.920 play anywhere, it helps those borderline guys that have borderline 0:18:22.920 --> 0:18:23.400 power life. 0:18:24.640 --> 0:18:26.280 Yeah we did it. Look at that, we didn't even 0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:26.720 play it. 0:18:26.960 --> 0:18:30.440 Yeah, help players like in constiuent Strand. So I don't 0:18:30.440 --> 0:18:33.080 really mean yeah, he could hit thirty on runs. He 0:18:33.119 --> 0:18:34.720 could also hit like two twenty. 0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:36.280 Yeah, I love it. 0:18:36.400 --> 0:18:38.440 I think what's so important is so funny. We both 0:18:38.480 --> 0:18:40.200 run here, We're just gonna do this the whole show. 0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:41.680 Be a best friend. 0:18:41.840 --> 0:18:46.280 Yep, what's what's interesting about that is, or the two 0:18:46.280 --> 0:18:51.040 important things you said, is his approach with the level. 0:18:50.800 --> 0:18:53.439 Of talent that that team has is a bit of 0:18:53.480 --> 0:18:54.840 a risk. I do think a lot of the. 0:18:54.920 --> 0:18:59.120 Underlying stuff tells the story of a hitter that can 0:18:59.200 --> 0:19:01.800 put up thirty five homers and you know, can be 0:19:01.880 --> 0:19:04.560 a middle of the order type of guy. But the 0:19:04.600 --> 0:19:08.199 wiggle room does feel a little bit less. You know, 0:19:08.240 --> 0:19:10.080 they were playing him, they played him in some third 0:19:10.160 --> 0:19:12.480 last year in spring training, and they just did defensively. 0:19:13.160 --> 0:19:15.199 I mean, that was why he was held down to Defensively, 0:19:15.280 --> 0:19:17.560 you know, you're kind of stuck. Luckily they have a 0:19:17.640 --> 0:19:20.200 DH spot open, but if you go through some struggles, 0:19:20.520 --> 0:19:23.320 they have so many pieces there that they can move 0:19:23.320 --> 0:19:25.840 you in and out, especially if they still do have India. 0:19:25.920 --> 0:19:27.840 So there's a little bit of risk there. Take what 0:19:27.880 --> 0:19:28.680 we said before too. 0:19:28.760 --> 0:19:31.280 You could probably get Goldschmidt plus for strand in a 0:19:31.359 --> 0:19:35.240 dynasty league, or find a perfect marriage between a team 0:19:35.320 --> 0:19:37.840 that is trying to rebuild and a win now team. 0:19:37.880 --> 0:19:40.080