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Speaker 1: Welcome in friends to the Fantasy Pros Dynasty Baseball Podcast

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Speaker 1: right here on Fantasy Pros and the Leading off Baseball Feed.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Chris Welsh.

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Speaker 2: You can find on.

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Speaker 1: Twitter at is It the Welsh. We continue our Dynasty

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Speaker 1: Baseball series, obviously the Dynasty Baseball Podcast. Today we're talking

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Speaker 1: about who we're selling. Last week we had Tim kannak

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Speaker 1: On talking about Dynasty bys. This week, Jesse Roach from

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Speaker 1: Baseball Perspectus is going to be joining us to talk

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Speaker 1: about the Dynasty cells, go by position, top players that

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Speaker 1: he is looking at selling overall. So we're playing a

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Speaker 1: little bit of the negative side today though though there

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Speaker 1: are some Dynasty bys also kind of sprinkled into the conversation.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, guys all for your awesome Dynasty support here

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Speaker 1: for Fantasy pro So make sure that you guys subscribe

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Speaker 1: to the podcast and check out all the great features

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Speaker 1: baseball is going to be hitting in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Many may have already heard, but Fantasy Pros has brought

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Speaker 1: me on full time. I am full time Fantasy Pros.

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Speaker 1: You know it comes with that lots and lots of

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Speaker 1: baseball talk. So we're gonna have a great twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: four with all the redraft and continuation of more Dynasty conversations.

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Speaker 1: When you sign up on the premium side of Fantasy Pros,

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Speaker 1: you can get into the discord. We got lots of

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Speaker 1: rooms in there. We'll have some interactions, we may even

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Speaker 1: have some Dynasty Discord only shows. There's a whole lot

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Speaker 1: of other reasons. So go to Fantasypros dot com right now.

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Speaker 1: You can check out how you can get access, and

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Speaker 1: you can.

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Speaker 2: Check out all the other great features. Let's not wait anymore.

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Speaker 1: My friend Jesse Roach from Baseball Perspectives joining us to

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Speaker 1: talk about all these Dynasty cells. So let's go do it.

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Speaker 1: Joining me here on the Fantasy Pros Dynasty Baseball podcast

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Speaker 1: is Jesse Roach, who you can find as a writer

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Speaker 1: and rankover at Baseball Perspectives. I have known Jesse for

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Speaker 1: quite time, done lots of episodes, and that is why

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Speaker 1: we have got him not only on the Dynasties the

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Speaker 1: Cells Dynasty Cells, because Jesse is not afraid to tell

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Speaker 1: you how it is. This is a difficult subject. Jesse,

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Speaker 1: I'll even tell you this. I was going to tell

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Speaker 1: you all the details, but I was perusing some content

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Speaker 1: kind of figuring out maybe in a certain place that

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Speaker 1: we know, and I was looking, hey, what did well

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Speaker 1: last year?

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Speaker 2: What did poorly?

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Speaker 1: And the poor was focusing on the negative. The negative

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Speaker 1: stuff didn't do as well as some of the positive

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Speaker 1: stuff from a content perspective. But you do need to

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Speaker 1: have the conversation. And what a better conversation to have

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Speaker 1: than digging in on dynasty cells here. So I didn't

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Speaker 1: even get to give you a proper introduction.

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Speaker 3: Buddy, Hey, it's great to be on I love talking cells.

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Speaker 3: I think a lot of people who know me in

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Speaker 3: the industry understand that I am not afraid to be

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Speaker 3: a DeBie downer with players. I often will throw cold

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Speaker 3: water because there's just so much hype in our in

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Speaker 3: our space, that's like all we see just about so

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Speaker 3: I like to throw cold water on players. I guess

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Speaker 3: the expectations that people have, at least for players as

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Speaker 3: much as possible, because we have to be realistic.

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Speaker 1: I think that I presume I don't know whether you

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Speaker 1: are or not, but if you were a gambler, presume

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Speaker 1: you would be someone that would find some good unders.

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Speaker 1: You'd be betting some unders you could you would be

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Speaker 1: able to identify the like Andrew Erickson here at Fantasy bro,

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Speaker 1: you'd be able to identify some unders, but you're right.

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Speaker 1: In the dynasty space, the cells are so important, I

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Speaker 1: think more important than in redraft. Like redraft is fun

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Speaker 1: and taking advantage. I think buys are more important in redraft,

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Speaker 1: but you know, when you can get out, it's great.

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Speaker 2: But dynasty hype is king.

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Speaker 1: And you know, we had Tim Kanak on last week,

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Speaker 1: and you know Tim would talk about when you're looking

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Speaker 1: at like Ottana leagues, No definitely has kind of a

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Speaker 1: stock system element to it, where you want to find

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Speaker 1: the right proper time where you can get out, and

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Speaker 1: almost everybody has a price to get out. Every dynasty

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Speaker 1: has created differently that has arbitration and money systems. Some

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Speaker 1: leagues you can just keep guys forever, but that doesn't

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Speaker 1: mean that there isn't a time where everybody can be sold.

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Speaker 1: So we are going to put some focus on some

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Speaker 1: players that Jesse has identified as cells in Dynasty, and

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Speaker 1: we did positionally last week on the buy, so we're

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Speaker 1: going to do the same on the cells this week.

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Speaker 3: Jesse.

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Speaker 1: So let's get right into it and let's look at

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Speaker 1: catchers we have. We're going to focus more on the

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Speaker 1: major league side. We do have a couple of prospects,

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Speaker 1: and this is an instant where I'm going to.

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Speaker 2: Talk about the prospects.

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Speaker 1: But let's start with your first Dynasty stell At Catcher.

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Speaker 3: Sure, I guess at the outset. I want to say

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Speaker 3: that selling in Dynasty is often context driven. You know,

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Speaker 3: I think it's very obvious to say, oh, well, an

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Speaker 3: aging player is a great cell, because when if they

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Speaker 3: have a bad season, all of a sudden, there's stock plummets,

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Speaker 3: it craters because they're all you know, they're in their

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Speaker 3: mid thirties. Sometimes Freddie Freeman right now, for example, you

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Speaker 3: know he's thirty four, fairly safe profile generally, but you know,

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Speaker 3: if he had a bad season, if you want started

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Speaker 3: to go the way of Joey Vado, I mean, his

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Speaker 3: stock in fantasy, you know, his value will just completely fall.

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Speaker 3: The floor will fall out. So I don't really like

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Speaker 3: to focus necessarily on aging players because I think it's obvious.

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Speaker 3: You know, a lot of these players are going to

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Speaker 3: be good selling cells. I mean we're seeing that already

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Speaker 3: with like Paul Goldschmidt. You know, his value is creted

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Speaker 3: very quickly.

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Speaker 2: You're you're an insane person.

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Speaker 1: I literally was waiting to jump in because I was

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Speaker 1: literally going to bring up Paul Goldman. You read my mind,

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Speaker 1: because you're exactly right. He had a poor ish season

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Speaker 1: because of his age.

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Speaker 2: He's tumbling.

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Speaker 1: As far as value goes, I would argue he's a

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Speaker 1: huge buy. Expected stats through the roof tell a different

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Speaker 1: story working at drive line, which can be you know,

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Speaker 1: blah blah for some people, Oh drive line. But one

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Speaker 1: of the things, it's just funny because I was this

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Speaker 1: was something that has stood out. Just wrote in the

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Black book Joe Piezapias, which is out now everybody

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Speaker 1: can go check out. We did some Dynasty stuff in there.

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Speaker 1: Actually did a Dynasty mock with a breakdown. But gold

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Speaker 1: Schmid was one that stood out to me so much

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Speaker 1: in my writing because you go and look, you see

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Speaker 1: all these expected numbers that we're kind of telling you

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Speaker 1: a different story. But one thing you also saw was

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Speaker 1: you could see that bat speed seemed like it was

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Speaker 1: going away. Because hard hit numbers, if I'm remembering correctly

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Speaker 1: from what I wrote, they sustain. But the lawn ch

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Speaker 1: agle dropped and I think it dropped significantly, So in

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Speaker 1: my brain I started to just started to put together

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Speaker 1: like maybe the bat speed was becoming a problem where

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Speaker 1: all these underlying things worked in favor. And then when

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Speaker 1: you know it, as I'm in the process of writing it,

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Speaker 1: I find he's at driveline working on bat speed the

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Speaker 1: exact same thing. So this is just like a little

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Speaker 1: tiny thing I'm adding and you'll add to it. But

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Speaker 1: it is so funny you brought him up because he's

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Speaker 1: a prime example of what you were leading to. Yet

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Speaker 1: sometimes those guys can actually be dynasty buys because that

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Speaker 1: is cratered.

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Speaker 3: Yes, exactly. I think Goldshman's a good opportunity by right now,

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Speaker 3: given that a lot of people will not. He's typically

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Speaker 3: drafted well outside of top one hundred. You know, I

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Speaker 3: think I still have him within my top one fifty personally,

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Speaker 3: but I wouldn't be shocked to see people push him

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Speaker 3: outside to top two hundred. I will tell you in

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Speaker 3: dynasty leagues in practice, you know, when my rankings are

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Speaker 3: basically in a vacuum, right, they're context neutral, So you know,

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Speaker 3: in a vacuum, that's how I value him. But obviously,

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Speaker 3: if you're a rebuilding team, you're not placing any value

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Speaker 3: on Paul out, So the number of people who are

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Speaker 3: willing to buy him is very limited. So if there's

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Speaker 3: someone willing to sell him, they're going to have a

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Speaker 3: limited number of teams to even work with. So if

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Speaker 3: you're one of those teams, you can often you know,

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Speaker 3: get a good value because there's just not much competition. Great.

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Speaker 3: So that's just a.

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Speaker 1: Great that's a really great context point of knowing the

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Speaker 1: market is a lot less guys get thirty three and over.

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Speaker 1: That market is much smaller to the buy now and

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Speaker 1: coming off of a poor year, it just doesn't exist.

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Speaker 1: It didn't mean to make this about Paul gold Smith,

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Speaker 1: but I thought it was a prime example. And I

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Speaker 1: think your concrest is really important. So what people can

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Speaker 1: know is this isn't going to be a list of

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Speaker 1: thirty six year old guys and above that you're about

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Speaker 1: to drop here, and this catcher sure isn't.

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Speaker 3: No, it's a William contraras so he's twenty five year old.

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Speaker 3: He's going to be twenty six in a week. So

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Speaker 3: you know he's a Christmas Eve baby, So happy soon

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Speaker 3: to be birthday, William Contras. But you know he's coming

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Speaker 3: off a very strong season, very strong second half with

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Speaker 3: the Brewers. You know, he had a six hundred and

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Speaker 3: eleven plate appearances, seventeen home runs, eighty six runs scored,

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Speaker 3: seventy eight RBI, six stolem bases to go on top

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Speaker 3: of it, and at two eighty nine average. So he

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Speaker 3: had a fantastic season. Huge strides defensively too, which I think,

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Speaker 3: you know, for fantasy, maybe that it matters only to

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Speaker 3: the point that it's more likely he's going to stick

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Speaker 3: a catcher long term. It's almost a lock at this point.

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Speaker 3: But my big concern is I'm seeing people draft ranking

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Speaker 3: him as high as second dynasty catchers behind Adlie Rushman.

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Speaker 3: I think that's a bit of a stretch for a

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Speaker 3: few reasons. Right, Yes, he has big power, his evs

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Speaker 3: are great, but he hits everything into the ground. His

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Speaker 3: ground ball rate has consistently been astronomical. It's fifty five

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Speaker 3: percent last year. It's really difficult for players to change

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Speaker 3: launch angle. It requires a lot of swing mechanical changes.

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Speaker 3: And if he's putting more balls in the air, all

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Speaker 3: of a sudden, that batting average is going to start

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Speaker 3: to creep down because the more fly balls he hits

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Speaker 3: the less the lower the batting average and balls and

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Speaker 3: play will be So there's a trade off here. If

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Speaker 3: you want that like two eighty two ninety average, it's

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Speaker 3: going to come with a very much muted power production.

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Speaker 3: But if you are trying to chase the power production

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Speaker 3: because you see the underlying exit velocity data and the

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Speaker 3: hard hit rates, then you're going to be disappointed because

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Speaker 3: the average will go crashing down if he starts putting

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Speaker 3: the ball more in the air. So it's just a

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Speaker 3: profile that I don't think it's I think there's a

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Speaker 3: very strong give and take here with him. I don't

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Speaker 3: think that he's a player that has as much growth

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Speaker 3: potential as some people maybe in vision with him. And

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Speaker 3: I'm still just concerned generally because I think there's still

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Speaker 3: plenty of underlyings were to miss in his game. It

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Speaker 3: took a step forward last year. His zone contact rate

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Speaker 3: jumped five percentage points from seventy seven point two percent

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Speaker 3: to eighty two point two percent, and he's consistently had

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Speaker 3: very poor contact rates throughout his career. Last year was

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Speaker 3: basically an anomalous season. Are we going to expect him

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Speaker 3: to maintain that moving forward? I think that's also a

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Speaker 3: bit of a stretch, So I generally think it's a

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Speaker 3: profile that has less growth potential and a lot of

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Speaker 3: createring potential. And I really don't like where he's being

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Speaker 3: priced right now in Dynasty. I do not think he's

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Speaker 3: the top one hundred Dynasty player period, and I just

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Speaker 3: would be out. I would be trying to sell right now.

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Speaker 3: I know it's weird to sell someone who's about to

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Speaker 3: be twenty six at catcher, who's coming off a career

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Speaker 3: season in a favorable home park on a good offensive team,

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Speaker 3: but I would be.

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Speaker 2: Yeah and taking a look here.

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Speaker 1: He ended up going in giving a shout out to

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Speaker 1: Chris Klegg, who was doing some Dynasty mock similar to

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Speaker 1: my prospect ones on the Dynasty dugout. Contreras was the

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Speaker 1: second catcher taken in Dynasty overall. In this mack of

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Speaker 1: the one that I was a part of, and it's

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Speaker 1: got a third, I'm sorry third. Will Smith ended up going.

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Speaker 1: It looks like second, and he was a third and

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Speaker 1: this had He's got some really good Dynasty people just

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Speaker 1: in my draft alone. What's interesting is he's the third

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Speaker 1: catcher going in NFPC drafts this year, going ahead of

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Speaker 1: Will Smith as well. I think early season drafts are

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Speaker 1: driving some of it. Age is driving some of it,

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Speaker 1: some of the changes are driving it. But I devalue

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Speaker 1: catchers a little bit in Dynasty kind of in general.

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Speaker 1: So pate price, Yeah, exactly, And projections are great. Steamer

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Speaker 1: is projecting twenty five eighty eighty with a two seventy

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Speaker 1: batting average and low strikeouts. That's fine if that's the case.

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Speaker 1: I'm not with like similar to what you said. If

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Speaker 1: those power numbers are going to rise, I think the

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Speaker 1: batting average is going to suffer greater. And I'm really

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Speaker 1: not sure what the team context they're running RBI numbers

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Speaker 1: will be there. Either way, it's a pretty good opportunity

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Speaker 1: not to be spending so much time here in catcher.

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Speaker 1: You just do have one other really interesting name I

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Speaker 1: want to throw as a cell and I'm gonna guess

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Speaker 1: this is going to be about hype, which is understandable.

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Speaker 2: But Ethan Solace is one that you threw here for Dynasty.

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Speaker 3: Yes, So it's funny because I was talking about this

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Speaker 3: pre show, is that I actually drafted Ethan Sawace in

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Speaker 3: the Prospect one draft. I think it was twenty first

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Speaker 3: so overall, so I look, I really like Ethan Sawas.

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Speaker 3: I think what you're going to see this offseason is

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Speaker 3: all the big national lists are going to come out

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Speaker 3: and he's going to be a top five prospect in

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Speaker 3: all of baseball and in typical dynasty leagues and a

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Speaker 3: lot of them that don't involve maybe more savvy owners.

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Speaker 3: They're going to look at those lists and buy that

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Speaker 3: hype in a big way. Look, he is eighteen, he's

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Speaker 3: on it's even eighteen. Yet he's not even eighteen years old. Yet,

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Speaker 3: He's not even eighteen on opening Day, he's said seventeen

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Speaker 3: years old. Catchers take a long time to develop. Yes,

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Speaker 3: he's on a massively fast track, but doesn't mean he's not.

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Speaker 3: He's going to like start stagnating. You know, he's in

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Speaker 3: Double A. He's gonna spend probably all year in Double A,

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Speaker 3: probably all year in Triple A next year. Yes, he'll

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Speaker 3: still probably get to the majors early. But I'm just

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Speaker 3: I don't catchers scared of me in dynasty, especially catching prospects,

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Speaker 3: for a lot of reasons. You know, if den Bell mounts,

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Speaker 3: time is very lengthy for catching prospects, the attrition rates

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Speaker 3: very high, and when they get to the majors. As

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Speaker 3: you've noted, you know, catchers they have muted production periods.

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Speaker 3: So you're going to see flashy hitting power tools maybe

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Speaker 3: from analysts for someone like SaaS, but those are going

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Speaker 3: to get muted at the pro level. I mean, just

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Speaker 3: look at what Adlee Rushman's doing. Fantastic player, but and

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Speaker 3: you know, I all tends some purposes. It's a very

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Speaker 3: clear plus hit tool with you know, above average power,

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Speaker 3: but it plays down in games because it's a long

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Speaker 3: season and catchers just are not going to produce like

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Speaker 3: other positions, and they're not going to typically play every

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Speaker 3: day either. So I just generally I put Solace in

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Speaker 3: a way there as a point of his age, and

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Speaker 3: also just catchers, I just I don't like dynasty catchers

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Speaker 3: at all. For prospects. I would be fading them hard generally,

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Speaker 3: and I'd be selling them, especially when I see the

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Speaker 3: hype building like it is with Salas.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know a lot of people that followed

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Speaker 1: me last year knew I was hype trained Ethan Solace.

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Speaker 3: So we got solved there should be because he's great well.

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Speaker 1: But also this is right around the time where it

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Speaker 1: was Solace versus Filman everyone's kind of jaded about the

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Speaker 1: j J fifteen class now and everyone just kind of

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Speaker 1: dealing with that. And I loved everything I saw with Solace.

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Speaker 1: The problem is where I was pushing him as, hey,

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Speaker 1: let's get him top seventy five, let's don't be scared,

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Speaker 1: get him now he's top twenty, and you referred to

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Speaker 1: my I have the prospect one P one ADP mocks,

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Speaker 1: which is over on my in this league Patreon. This

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Speaker 1: week is posted the ADP. Well, the ADP of him

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Speaker 1: is higher than you took him. It's inside the top twenty.

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Speaker 1: So from a catcher value standpoint, here's a perspective I'll

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Speaker 1: give you. He went at their lows he went, or

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Speaker 1: I guess I should say at the highest the highest

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Speaker 1: he went. Ethan Salas was one pick away from the

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Speaker 1: lowest Jason Domingos win. So for perspective, you could trade

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Speaker 1: Ethan Salas pretty much as a one for one to

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Speaker 1: get Jason Domingoes. I'm a buyer of Jason Dimingez on

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Speaker 1: the injury for this year, and there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: other guys in the same general range that you could

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Speaker 1: sell him for to get some pretty big stuff. He

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Speaker 1: went the highest he went was fourteen in one of

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Speaker 1: the leagues I put together, and Yamamoto went after that.

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Speaker 1: Now it's a pitcher, But if you're in win now

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Speaker 1: versus there's just a lot of stuff you're gonna be

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Speaker 1: able to do with the hype that's going to go

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Speaker 1: around with Ethan Sallas and it's not going away anytime soon.

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Speaker 1: Moving over to first base, Christian in Carnacion Strand he

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Speaker 1: comes in. I stole you getting to announce him. What's

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Speaker 1: interesting is he absolutely jumps off the page of expected

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Speaker 1: stats when you dig deeper, what the hard hit numbers,

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Speaker 1: barrel percentage and expected numbers did versus the production. But

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Speaker 1: you have him as a cell, yes, because I think

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Speaker 1: his approach scares me to death.

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Speaker 3: You know, he is incredibly aggressive. He's going to swing

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Speaker 3: all the time, and I don't really think that what

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Speaker 3: we saw at the major league level is necessarily going

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Speaker 3: to be something that we're going to see as being

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Speaker 3: as sustainable as I'd like, as you'd want to see

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Speaker 3: ol a first base only prospect. You know, there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of under there's plenty of underlying swing a miss

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Speaker 3: in this game as well with an aggressive approach. I

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Speaker 3: mean he may not right, you know, have massive strikeout

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Speaker 3: numbers because he's swinging all the time. But I just

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Speaker 3: don't love that type of profile. I think there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of bust risk with him, especially on in an

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Speaker 3: organization that has an absolute crowd in the infield right now.

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Speaker 3: I mean, obviously they're likely to make a move, but

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Speaker 3: even after they trade someone like John Fan India, they're

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Speaker 3: still going to have a crowd and they're gonna have

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Speaker 3: a lot of mouths to feed, and there's just gonna

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Speaker 3: be if he struggles, there's gonna be very little leash

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Speaker 3: that he will have this year. I think he will

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Speaker 3: go down to Triple A if he struggles out the gate,

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Speaker 3: and that scares me because once that happens, his dynasty

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Speaker 3: value is going to crash. Even if it's you know,

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Speaker 3: typical sophomore you know struggles. You know, we have to

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Speaker 3: remember that's what happens typically with a lot of prospects,

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Speaker 3: especially prospects that have scary approaches like income Arci on Strand,

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Speaker 3: and yeah, the power is big, and he could be

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Speaker 3: like Frani early career, Famuel reeis in a lot of

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Speaker 3: ways like he could have that kind of like he

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Speaker 3: could have that kind of value generation. But I just

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Speaker 3: don't love where he's going right now in Dynasty. I

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Speaker 3: think it's some it's a point where there's a lot

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Speaker 3: of first basemen in that range that I feel more

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Speaker 3: comfortable with, and the inn Redraft, for sure, there's a

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Speaker 3: lot more first basement that go around him in Redraft

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Speaker 3: that I feel more comfortable with. So i'd be to

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Speaker 3: sell him right now, especially when there are people that

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Speaker 3: I know and really respect that love him and are

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Speaker 3: hyping him to the ceiling. So I mean, yeah, he

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Speaker 3: hits in a great park. I don't really think great

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Speaker 3: American ballpark helps players as much like in Karnosiu and Strand,

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Speaker 3: as much as maybe others think. Because the power will

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Speaker 3: play anywhere, it helps those borderline guys that have borderline

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Speaker 3: power life.

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Speaker 2: Yeah we did it. Look at that, we didn't even

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Speaker 2: play it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, help players like in constiuent Strand. So I don't

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Speaker 3: really mean yeah, he could hit thirty on runs. He

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Speaker 3: could also hit like two twenty.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I love it.

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Speaker 1: I think what's so important is so funny. We both

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Speaker 1: run here, We're just gonna do this the whole show.

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Speaker 2: Be a best friend.

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Speaker 1: Yep, what's what's interesting about that is, or the two

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Speaker 1: important things you said, is his approach with the level.

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Speaker 2: Of talent that that team has is a bit of

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Speaker 2: a risk. I do think a lot of the.

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Speaker 1: Underlying stuff tells the story of a hitter that can

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Speaker 1: put up thirty five homers and you know, can be

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Speaker 1: a middle of the order type of guy. But the

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Speaker 1: wiggle room does feel a little bit less. You know,

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Speaker 1: they were playing him, they played him in some third

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Speaker 1: last year in spring training, and they just did defensively.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that was why he was held down to Defensively,

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Speaker 1: you know, you're kind of stuck. Luckily they have a

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Speaker 1: DH spot open, but if you go through some struggles,

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Speaker 1: they have so many pieces there that they can move

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Speaker 1: you in and out, especially if they still do have India.

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Speaker 2: So there's a little bit of risk there. Take what

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Speaker 2: we said before too.

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Speaker 1: You could probably get Goldschmidt plus for strand in a

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Speaker 1: dynasty league, or find a perfect marriage between a team

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Speaker 1: that is trying to rebuild and a win now team.

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Speaker 1: If you have the opposite ends, you could find some

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Speaker 1: homes for that and plus more. Because that's not really

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Speaker 1: even necessarily capitalizing on it. For Cees number two, or

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Speaker 1: I guess the second base number two. The second base

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Speaker 1: option you have here, I think screams Christian and Karnasio

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Speaker 1: and Strand at second base, except I don't know if

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Speaker 1: there's viable options here. But talk to us about your

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Speaker 1: second base cell in Dynasty.

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Speaker 3: Exach Geloff second basement for the athletics. So he, I

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Speaker 3: think is probably an odd sort of an obvious cell.

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Speaker 3: I think there's gonna be a few that I'm going

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Speaker 3: to talk about tonight that should probably be obvious cells.

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Speaker 3: I'm not really seeing it in the industry. I'm not

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Speaker 3: seeing it in practice. I think people are trying to

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Speaker 3: buy Bye Bye because for one, look, he legit has

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Speaker 3: power and speed. The speed is very real. I think

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Speaker 3: it's real, more real than anyone ever gave it credit

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Speaker 3: and credit for as a prospect. I mean, last year

419
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Speaker 3: between triple and Triple A in major leagues, he hit

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Speaker 3: thirty four stolen bases on forty one attempts, and the

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Speaker 3: data all supports it. I mean, he can fly, and

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Speaker 3: he's a great base runner. He's had a massive track

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Speaker 3: record of sole and bases, so I believe the speed.

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Speaker 3: I think he definitely has a chance to be a

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Speaker 3: twenty stone base threat easy this year, and the power

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Speaker 3: is pretty solid, right, He's not going to necessarily jump

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Speaker 3: off the page with the evs. But he's been on

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Speaker 3: record saying that he doesn't look he can hit the

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Speaker 3: ball really hard. He doesn't look to necessarily hit the

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Speaker 3: ball into stratosphere, he said. He's said that, you know,

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Speaker 3: I could hit at one ten or I could hit

432
00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,639
Speaker 3: one five and it's still a home run, you know.

433
00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:19,119
Speaker 3: So there isn't much of a difference there. It just

434
00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:21,919
Speaker 3: helps him, you know, kind of pick his spots. So

435
00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:24,680
Speaker 3: he's a savvy hitter. But the big issue I've had

436
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:27,240
Speaker 3: with him, and it's an ongoing issue, is there is

437
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:30,520
Speaker 3: a massive amount of underlying swing and miss. His zoom

438
00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 3: contact rate was seventy five point five percent, around seventy

439
00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:35,879
Speaker 3: five percent last year. Actually, I think it was a

440
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:39,040
Speaker 3: little lower than that, which is terrible. I mean, that's

441
00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:42,520
Speaker 3: very much below average. I think there's just scary amount

442
00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:47,760
Speaker 3: swinging miss. He's fairly aggressive hitter that is not necessarily

443
00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 3: the doesn't necessarily thrive with like massive amounts of play

444
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:54,880
Speaker 3: discipline either. I think there's just a very real risk

445
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:58,440
Speaker 3: that the average completely craters and falls on like through

446
00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:02,360
Speaker 3: a floor. Yeah, there's power speed that's nice, and he's

447
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:04,760
Speaker 3: going to have a lot of runway with the athletics.

448
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:08,159
Speaker 3: But you know, some people are ranking him or valuing

449
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,280
Speaker 3: on him as a top one hundred Dynasty player, and

450
00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:12,560
Speaker 3: if that's the case, I think you try and sell

451
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:14,919
Speaker 3: because I just don't think I think the risk is

452
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 3: too high given his underline screen miss.

453
00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:19,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, and for perspective, when you were talking about the

454
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:23,240
Speaker 1: zone contact percentage, Spencer Torkolsen, who hit like two twelve

455
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:25,439
Speaker 1: get next beaf like two thirty two, had like around

456
00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:28,400
Speaker 1: eighty five percent zone contact percentage. So just like you're

457
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 1: running the perspectives of like, you know, there's a guy

458
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:35,040
Speaker 1: that has higher expected stats that had a bad batting average,

459
00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:37,920
Speaker 1: and then you're gonna take you know, a higher early

460
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:41,679
Speaker 1: performance to really bad zone contact percentage. That's worrisome. And

461
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:45,359
Speaker 1: Chase Ray, it's worrisome. He's a counting stats guy, but

462
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 1: he doesn't have like Matt McClain is a pretty common

463
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:52,320
Speaker 1: player that you're either on one or two sides you're like, wow,

464
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,880
Speaker 1: he well overperformed and he would be a sell or.

465
00:22:56,080 --> 00:23:00,160
Speaker 1: Hey listen, he's just scratching the surface. But he he's

466
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:02,440
Speaker 1: one of those guys that has more floor as far

467
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:05,440
Speaker 1: as his profile than a guy like Geloff, So I

468
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:10,159
Speaker 1: agree with this one. Moving over to third base, we

469
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:11,760
Speaker 1: are getting to a little bit of an older name.

470
00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,640
Speaker 1: We've had some young focus names, but we are focused

471
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:16,119
Speaker 1: on a player that is going to come into the

472
00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 1: season injured.

473
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 2: So you're sell at third base.

474
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:23,720
Speaker 3: It's Bady Machado. He's going He's thirty one years old now,

475
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,800
Speaker 3: and you know, we've had many, many years of consistent

476
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:31,760
Speaker 3: thirty home run production, including last year, So I just

477
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:36,119
Speaker 3: think it's times this is a profile that's screaming massive

478
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:38,960
Speaker 3: amounts of regression. Obviously last year he took a step

479
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:43,160
Speaker 3: back offensively. I think generally there's just a lot of

480
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 3: underlying stuff here with Machado that's scary, including the injury.

481
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 3: I think the skills are trending down, the home park

482
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:54,440
Speaker 3: is not favorable, and this may be one of the

483
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 3: last opportunities to buy before he falls well outside the

484
00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 3: top one hundred in Dynasty, because next year he'll be

485
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:04,680
Speaker 3: thirty two, and you know, as these players age further

486
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:08,720
Speaker 3: into their thirties, there's their values just consistently go down.

487
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 3: I'm less absent certain extraordinary circumstances, and I'm just very

488
00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 3: leery of where I'm a child is going to be,

489
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:22,240
Speaker 3: especially coming off a very serious injury and surgery, and

490
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 3: I just it's a guy that I'm just off right now.

491
00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 1: Altogether, he had two things and you meant sell, you

492
00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:31,360
Speaker 1: said bye, but you meant the last sell.

493
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 2: You know, he had the wrist.

494
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:35,560
Speaker 1: I think it was fracture at the beginning of the year,

495
00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:37,879
Speaker 1: and then he just underwent like I think it was

496
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:39,160
Speaker 1: like a tennis elbow type.

497
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:41,720
Speaker 2: Of surgery in the off season. You don't love that.

498
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 1: You don't love those type of Sure, they could clean

499
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 1: everything up and we can get good to go. I

500
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:52,199
Speaker 1: lean a little bit more into the by category, but this,

501
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:54,679
Speaker 1: I think this one is a fine line. It's like,

502
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,439
Speaker 1: if he is being held at the top thirty or

503
00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 1: thirty five standard, then I think he's being overvalued and

504
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:04,159
Speaker 1: you might be able to consolidate and may if you

505
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:05,879
Speaker 1: could get I mean, I don't know how you personal

506
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,520
Speaker 1: If you get Royce Lewis for Manny Machado and Dynasty,

507
00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:12,119
Speaker 1: I would want that, yeah, But I'm saying like in

508
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:14,440
Speaker 1: some league there might be that mentality where those don't

509
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 1: quite equate even CJ. Abrams, for all of his negatives

510
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 1: are positives. Whichever way you look at it, Abrams might

511
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 1: not be in some of that similar value as Machado,

512
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,600
Speaker 1: so that it's an interesting side where you end up

513
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 1: taking this and you've taken this to another really interesting

514
00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 1: spot at shortstop, and we're actually going to focus on

515
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:34,200
Speaker 1: two of them. I'm going to focus on the top

516
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:36,159
Speaker 1: guy though. This is the major league player. This is

517
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 1: the biggest name we are going to talk about of

518
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:43,719
Speaker 1: any player in the Dynasty Cells today. So it's shortstop

519
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 1: is who Tray Turner?

520
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,720
Speaker 3: All right? So he's thirty years old now, a thirty

521
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:55,439
Speaker 3: year old speedster, a player who relies a lot of

522
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 3: his value is derived from his speed. It's just scary.

523
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:02,399
Speaker 3: Once players hit their thirties, they typically start slowing down.

524
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 3: It's very clear there's a ton of evidence for that. Obviously,

525
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:13,720
Speaker 3: he's still incredibly fast, but he's also hitting behind Kyle

526
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 3: Schober in that Phillies lineup, and so the opportunities to

527
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:20,159
Speaker 3: steal bases are limited anyway, so he just is going

528
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 3: to have less opportunity to use the speed. The biggest

529
00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:27,439
Speaker 3: concerns I have with Trace Hearner are the declining contact rates.

530
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 3: I am always trying to pay attention to contact rates

531
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 3: because I think that they are very crucial for players

532
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:40,639
Speaker 3: like Turner who do rely on a healthy amount of contact.

533
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:44,400
Speaker 3: His whiff rate jumped almost to thirty percent last year.

534
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,160
Speaker 3: His own contact rate was a career low at eighty

535
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 3: two point two percent, and he was, of course disastrous

536
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:53,640
Speaker 3: for the most part for the first half of the season.

537
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 3: Just that final hot stretch to end the season kind

538
00:26:57,040 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 3: of completely saved this season. But you know, if that

539
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 3: cold stretch lasted longer, which it could in the future,

540
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 3: you're going to see a player who could really see

541
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:11,879
Speaker 3: his value completely crash and burn. And that is my

542
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 3: biggest concern with Tray Turner. I think the power and

543
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:20,440
Speaker 3: speed expectations should be more limited than what we've seen

544
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 3: from him over the past past three years or so,

545
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 3: and with the declining contact rates, he's not going to

546
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:28,960
Speaker 3: hit for the averages that he's has hit for in

547
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 3: the past. You know, last year hit two sixty six.

548
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,360
Speaker 3: You know, I think something along those lines is what

549
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:38,280
Speaker 3: I would generally expect from him moving forward. So I

550
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:40,640
Speaker 3: just think it's a little it's just a scary profile

551
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:42,640
Speaker 3: for me, you know, he's still being drafted very high

552
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,240
Speaker 3: in redrafted. I think then Dyacy generally you're going to

553
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:47,200
Speaker 3: see a lot more a lot of hype still with him,

554
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 3: and I think he's a deaf. He's a player that

555
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:51,919
Speaker 3: I would one hundred percent fade even more in OBP formats.

556
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 3: He's a player that I don't think people fade enough

557
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 3: in OBP formats because he's, you know, a very aggressive hitter.

558
00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 3: He typically has you know, about fifty percentage point differential

559
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:04,360
Speaker 3: between his average and OVP, which means he just has

560
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:08,680
Speaker 3: far less impact in OBP formats generally, so I would

561
00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 3: be I'm getting off of Turner. I don't dislike Turner.

562
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:15,080
Speaker 3: It always depends on the value you can get up

563
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 3: for him. But if he's getting valued as like a

564
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:21,639
Speaker 3: borderline top twenty dynasty asset, I would be selling hard.

565
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 1: You know, A move I made in redraft and I'm

566
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:27,439
Speaker 1: posting my redeff ranks for posting this week on in

567
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:31,159
Speaker 1: this league and they'll be over on Fantasy Pros probably

568
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:34,200
Speaker 1: right around the same time, is I'm of Corey Seger

569
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:37,440
Speaker 1: above Trey Turner in redraft leagues, and I know that

570
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 1: might not feel popular because of stolen bases. But there

571
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 1: are a few bats to me that are worthwhile sacrificing

572
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 1: stolen bases for Corey Seeger is one of them.

573
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 2: And I made that move.

574
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 1: And when you're talking about Trey Turner's value, not even

575
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 1: trying to compare a secer in him, but like you

576
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:57,640
Speaker 1: could make a you could probably get a Jackson Holiday

577
00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 1: plus deal done, and I know, like I know they'll

578
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,600
Speaker 1: are going to feel relatively similar and similar in like

579
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 1: true dynasties. Funny enough, in the the Klegg Dynasty draft

580
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 1: I was in, Turner went to eight and Jackson Holiday

581
00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 1: went to nine. So it's not unfeasible feasible to think that,

582
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,200
Speaker 1: like you could get a plus move on a win

583
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:17,719
Speaker 1: now team that doesn't you know that thinks they're selling

584
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 1: on the hype of Jackson Holiday if you have some fear,

585
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 1: so that is Trey Turner in there.

586
00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:26,479
Speaker 3: Yeah, Turner's average draft position on those and those drafts

587
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 3: was twenty point one, so you know if he's being

588
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 3: valued at that that and this is an OBP draft,

589
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 3: mind you right, he should not be a top three

590
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 3: player period in OBP. In my mind, and even in

591
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 3: regular standard five by five, I would not take him

592
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 3: that high at twenty, So I just yeah, at his

593
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:48,480
Speaker 3: current value, people are still like in love with the

594
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 3: name value. They're not recognizing, my mind, what's clear decline.

595
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 2: So I'm off the other one. I want to mention it.

596
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 1: By the way, the next three it's all gonna be

597
00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 1: fun because Jesse is just absolutely crap on everybody's excitement hype.

598
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 1: But the reason we're going to do this one real quick,

599
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 1: just a quick one on this is he showed up

600
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 1: in the buy episode last week where Tim Kanak is

601
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:11,400
Speaker 1: buying Jordan Lawler.

602
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:14,800
Speaker 3: You're selling, I am, And again I want to say

603
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:18,320
Speaker 3: it really depends on contexts because I think that if

604
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 3: people are value him as like a top five prospect,

605
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:24,280
Speaker 3: I think you sell. But I've seen him being drafted

606
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 3: outside of like top ten in a lot of these drafts,

607
00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 3: and I've actually gotten chairs of Lawler because of where

608
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 3: his value has been. It's been just like very reasonable,

609
00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 3: way outside the top one hundred. I will buy it

610
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 3: all day at that value. But you know, I think

611
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:43,840
Speaker 3: that if you're valuing him as like a top seventy,

612
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 3: top sixty dynasty asset or player, I think that that

613
00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:51,920
Speaker 3: is way too high. Now, his average draft position in

614
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 3: those max is eighty eight. That's not bad. Honestly, I

615
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 3: think that's not bad. But my biggest concern with Lawler

616
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 3: is I think that there is not as much impact

617
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 3: as I think some people expect or think there is there.

618
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 3: The evs are far from impressive. I mean they're basically

619
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 3: borderline honestly. I mean, at the top end, EV's are

620
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:21,560
Speaker 3: close to average, but generally on the whole, his evs

621
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 3: just don't jump off the page. There's just not a

622
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 3: ton of power. He's not a very big guy either.

623
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 3: He's a speedster. I think that if you have the

624
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 3: expectation to think that maybe he could be Tray Turner,

625
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 3: which is what I kind of think he could be

626
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 3: like Trey Turner, obviously there's a massive risks there. Still

627
00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 3: then that's fine. I think that that's a fine expectation

628
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:45,480
Speaker 3: to still have with Lawler because I do really like

629
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 3: the hit tool. I think it's something that some I

630
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 3: think that's it's interesting because you see so much mixed

631
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 3: opinion about his hit tool. But he does have a

632
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 3: very solid played approach. He makes a lot of contact,

633
00:31:56,720 --> 00:32:00,480
Speaker 3: But I really questioned where the impact ultimately lie. And

634
00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 3: you know that kind of scares me away.

635
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:04,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think that's where the risk is.

636
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 1: I think it's too early to process who he's going

637
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:09,200
Speaker 1: to be and where he's going to be, but you can,

638
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 1: obviously you have to look at the data that's been there.

639
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 1: He is a wildly successful minor league career. He did

640
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 1: really great in the areas in a fall league when

641
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 1: he was here, But there's been some injuries, he's there's

642
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 1: definitely some questionable power stuff that's out there. He's an

643
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 1: aggressive base runner, though, so we'll see, We'll see where

644
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 1: it goes and maybe really very real.

645
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 2: Yeah.

646
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:32,480
Speaker 1: I've always thought he could be a poor man's Bobby Witt,

647
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 1: and I think that's the best case scenario. But it

648
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:37,800
Speaker 1: might be instead of thirty fifty like Bobby Witt, it's

649
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 1: like twenty thirty with a two fifty two to sixty

650
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 1: batting average, And that might be the high and that

651
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:45,560
Speaker 1: that is what he would be very good.

652
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 2: That's what you would bank on him being.

653
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 1: Like a top sixty or seventy player if you believe

654
00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 1: that's going to be the case. And the hit tool

655
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 1: does speak to it all, right, last two, this is

656
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 1: what I was talking about. Any of that hype you're

657
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:57,719
Speaker 1: getting for this season, it's going to go out the window,

658
00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:01,200
Speaker 1: as Jesse is going to take your favorite outfielder, as

659
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 1: they know he is a cell.

660
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 2: So let's hear it.

661
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 4: Uh.

662
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 3: Nolan Jones, which again I'm gonna say is interesting since

663
00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 3: I did draft him in that cleg mack, but it

664
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 3: was an OBIP mock. I really do still think Nolan Jones.

665
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:19,080
Speaker 3: He's just gotten far more valuable in OBP formats generally.

666
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 3: So my big concerns with him are similar to what

667
00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 3: you what I said with Gelaf. The contact is incredibly scary. Uh.

668
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,560
Speaker 3: The zone contact for Nolan Jones was seventy one point

669
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 3: five percent this past year in the major league level.

670
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 3: I think that that contact rate, married with his patient approach,

671
00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 3: is just a recipe for massive amounts of strikeouts. I

672
00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:48,240
Speaker 3: think you know a three true outcomes player. If you

673
00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:51,480
Speaker 3: have that expectation, that's perfectly fine. But I think that

674
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:54,520
Speaker 3: he also had the highest batting average of balls and

675
00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 3: play if any player at the major league level last

676
00:33:56,840 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 3: year with like three hundred play appearances or something, it

677
00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 3: was over four hundred. I think you have to very

678
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 3: heavily regress his batting average. I think if the batting

679
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:13,440
Speaker 3: average falls fifty points, I think that is, you know,

680
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:16,160
Speaker 3: would be a good day. Honestly, if he's hitting two

681
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 3: forty seven or two fifty, I'd be happy with that production.

682
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:22,719
Speaker 3: But I think many people might not be. And I

683
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:25,800
Speaker 3: think that some projections of that I'm seeing, the earlier

684
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 3: projections I think are a little bit too positive with

685
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 3: his batting average. Now I get the course field effect.

686
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 3: The course field effect gives you inflated batting average, your

687
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:37,120
Speaker 3: balls in play, and you're gonna hit for a higher average. Generally,

688
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 3: that means you're going to be putting balls in play,

689
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:42,040
Speaker 3: which is the big problem with Nolan Jones, because he,

690
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:43,799
Speaker 3: like I said, I think there's a real chance that

691
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 3: we could see, you know, easily forty percent of his

692
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,759
Speaker 3: play appearances or strikehouse or walks or more. I could

693
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:52,399
Speaker 3: see that very easily. And that means he's putting balls

694
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:55,280
Speaker 3: less balls in play, which means he's not taking advantage

695
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:57,319
Speaker 3: of the course field effect as much as he as

696
00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 3: you want to see players take advantage of us like,

697
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:02,439
Speaker 3: so far, be as aggressive as you want put those

698
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 3: balls in play. Uh, you're not gonna see it from

699
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:07,439
Speaker 3: Roland Jones. Now, the power is very real. I really

700
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 3: do buy the speed breakout in a lot all the ways.

701
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:12,719
Speaker 3: I think there's a chance he's a twenty twenty player,

702
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:14,600
Speaker 3: but like Zach Giloff, he might be a twenty tour

703
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:16,920
Speaker 3: player who hits you know, thirty.

704
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 2: Forty one hundred percent agree.

705
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 1: I do not believe the average is at a high,

706
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:23,399
Speaker 1: high level. I think this is like a I want

707
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 1: to say Schwarber, but I think the levels of averaged

708
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 1: OBP could be similar. I think this is like two

709
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:30,400
Speaker 1: forty on a good year with like a three eighty OBP.

710
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:32,160
Speaker 1: Like that's the type of guy that he can be,

711
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:35,399
Speaker 1: which is great for OBP leagues, but standard head head

712
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:37,360
Speaker 1: roto leagues. I just don't think the average is going

713
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:39,279
Speaker 1: to get there, and I think that's what makes him tough.

714
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think an OBP. I really actually like his value,

715
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 3: but I think it's standard, uh like average five by

716
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:45,720
Speaker 3: five leagues.

717
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 2: I do not final one.

718
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 1: How about a pitcher and how about a bitcher that

719
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:52,440
Speaker 1: everybody is excited about. I'm gonna be honest with you,

720
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:55,759
Speaker 1: the more I've dug in for this year, I think

721
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:58,920
Speaker 1: the hype makes all the sense, and I want to

722
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:02,759
Speaker 1: buy it is a little alarming when I see his rank,

723
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:04,480
Speaker 1: or I do a show with Scott White and he

724
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 1: talks about Tarik Schooble, who I'm going to break here,

725
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:11,840
Speaker 1: But I I feel like I know the general consensus

726
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:13,279
Speaker 1: of where you're going to go as far as hype.

727
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:16,000
Speaker 1: But tell us why you are selling Treek Schooble in Dynasty.

728
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:20,920
Speaker 3: Well, the hype's wild. He's wild, wild wild wild. He

729
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:24,840
Speaker 3: average draft position I believe in redraft is like top fifty,

730
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:28,080
Speaker 3: which is wild to me.

731
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:30,520
Speaker 2: Scott having at SP nine.

732
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:33,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, we have to remember last year he

733
00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 3: didn't throw many innings, so you know how many innings

734
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:38,120
Speaker 3: are going to be allowed He's going to be even

735
00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 3: allowed to throw this year? I think it's open question.

736
00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:44,000
Speaker 3: You know. I think that maybe one fifty. Uh you know,

737
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:46,359
Speaker 3: I think if you're expecting him to go like one

738
00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:51,279
Speaker 3: eighty this year, I think that is hoping. It's kind

739
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:54,080
Speaker 3: of like a little bit too optimistic in my mind. Now,

740
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:56,239
Speaker 3: there's a lots alike with Tarik school ball, and I

741
00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 3: do like him a lot. I think that if he's

742
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:01,400
Speaker 3: being drafted in reach raft as a top fifty player,

743
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:03,839
Speaker 3: that means in a lot of Dynasty formats, he's going

744
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 3: to be potentially drafted as like a top forty player

745
00:37:07,080 --> 00:37:09,440
Speaker 3: because he's much younger than a lot of the pitchers

746
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:12,400
Speaker 3: that would typically be drafted ahead of him. You know,

747
00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 3: he of course was fantastic in his debut, all right,

748
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 3: So his average draft position in these dynasty dugout ADP

749
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 3: was sixty two. So you know that's where we're seeing

750
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:27,880
Speaker 3: him right now generally in dynasty. So my big problem

751
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:30,960
Speaker 3: with scoot Ball is I really don't like his fastball.

752
00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 3: His fastball's something that he was actually known for when

753
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:37,760
Speaker 3: he was coming up as a prospect, but his fastball

754
00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 3: shape is not good. What made it more viable this

755
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 3: past year is his big velocity games. You know, his

756
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:46,880
Speaker 3: fastball lass he jumped like one point five miles an

757
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 3: hour coming off of you know, serious arm injury. And

758
00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:54,520
Speaker 3: how he's whether he's going to be able for one,

759
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:57,719
Speaker 3: maintained that type of velocity over a full season and

760
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 3: two actually as successful as he was. I think it's

761
00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:07,120
Speaker 3: really questionable. I think given the fastball shape, I don't

762
00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:09,440
Speaker 3: even know if it's an average pitch that you know,

763
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:11,800
Speaker 3: if you look at stuff plus grades for his fastball,

764
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:15,840
Speaker 3: it's below average. It's you know a borderline pitch. I

765
00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:18,120
Speaker 3: think it's better than I think what stuff plus is

766
00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:22,320
Speaker 3: giving it credit for, but still just not It punches

767
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 3: way below it's velocity. It's average velocity last year was

768
00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:28,200
Speaker 3: ninety five point eight miles an hour. Is a sinker

769
00:38:28,280 --> 00:38:30,640
Speaker 3: was ninety five point nine. Where I do think, I

770
00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:33,680
Speaker 3: really like Scoop and I think where he can shine

771
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:36,719
Speaker 3: is his change up is fantastic. I've all I've been

772
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:38,279
Speaker 3: a fan of his change up since he kind of

773
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 3: was able to retool it in twenty I believe it

774
00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:42,360
Speaker 3: was twenty twenty.

775
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:46,000
Speaker 1: What year was that, twenty twenty one or is it

776
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:46,720
Speaker 1: twenty twenty?

777
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:51,000
Speaker 3: It was twenty twenty two, very legitimately retooled his change

778
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:53,919
Speaker 3: there like it was a new pitch. I really loved

779
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:57,359
Speaker 3: it that year, and it's it's been as good, if

780
00:38:57,400 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 3: not better than that, this year this past So I

781
00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:02,200
Speaker 3: really do think the change ups good. I think the

782
00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 3: change is going to allow the fastball to play a

783
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:08,200
Speaker 3: lot better than it it really is. In actuality, he

784
00:39:08,239 --> 00:39:10,520
Speaker 3: made a lot of strides with his slider. His slider

785
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 3: is profiling a lot better now. It's missing bats at

786
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:15,279
Speaker 3: a much better rate too.

787
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:20,720
Speaker 2: But the big butts come in here. But let's see.

788
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,680
Speaker 3: But but the fastball is just not I think going

789
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:26,160
Speaker 3: to be a successful pitch, and it scares me. And

790
00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 3: I think that if you if he if the fastball

791
00:39:29,200 --> 00:39:31,640
Speaker 3: Vlosi comes down to even what it was before, I

792
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:33,400
Speaker 3: think we're just going to see a much different pitcher.

793
00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:35,719
Speaker 3: It's still gonna be a quality are mind you, But

794
00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:37,239
Speaker 3: I think he's not a top fifty guy.

795
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:40,040
Speaker 2: Who would you rather have a dynasty Grayson Rodriguez.

796
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:42,000
Speaker 3: Or school ball Grace and Rodriguez.

797
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:46,920
Speaker 1: Easy Senga or Schooball school You know what interesting is

798
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:50,160
Speaker 1: both went ahead of drink schoobl in the MUCKs that

799
00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:51,239
Speaker 1: we're referencing here.

800
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:53,240
Speaker 2: So yeah, very very interesting.

801
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 1: His hype is at the biggest.

802
00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:57,520
Speaker 2: That I can recall. But do as you will.

803
00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:00,960
Speaker 1: Those are some dynasty buys from Jesse wrote follow him

804
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:01,480
Speaker 1: on Twitter.

805
00:40:01,280 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 2: At j A wrote R O C H E six.

806
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:07,520
Speaker 2: You can also catch them over at Baseball Perspectives. What's

807
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:09,080
Speaker 2: going on? What do you got to plug here?

808
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:10,800
Speaker 1: What do you got going on in the near future?

809
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 1: Pods writing what's happening right now?

810
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:16,640
Speaker 3: We're doing the top ten or the top top prospect

811
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:20,200
Speaker 3: lists for each team, and I'm adding the fantasy takes

812
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:23,400
Speaker 3: for each of the players, including a reckless comp for

813
00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:25,680
Speaker 3: each player. I try to, like, I spend a lot

814
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:29,960
Speaker 3: of time on it's weird you're coming through baseball players.

815
00:40:30,040 --> 00:40:30,680
Speaker 3: What did you just do?

816
00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 2: What team did you just do?

817
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:33,520
Speaker 3: I just did the Brewers?

818
00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:37,080
Speaker 1: All right, give me your reckless comp for Cooper Pratt?

819
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:39,719
Speaker 3: We actually so he wasn't in their top ten. So

820
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:40,440
Speaker 3: I only do the.

821
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 1: Top lasphemis the last famis they don't have Cooper Pratt

822
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:45,439
Speaker 1: in their top ten.

823
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 3: Mate, honestly, I agree, don't. I don't make their rankings.

824
00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:52,840
Speaker 3: It's a you know, real life based rankings. But like

825
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:57,480
Speaker 3: their bottom their number ten was Daniel Gillarty, and I

826
00:40:57,480 --> 00:41:00,239
Speaker 3: wouldn't put him in top ten for example, to.

827
00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:00,719
Speaker 2: Be above him.

828
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:03,280
Speaker 1: What if you recall, like one of the most ridiculous comps,

829
00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:06,040
Speaker 1: you gave your reckless comp of any of anybody?

830
00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 3: Well, I guess on the Brewers, I think Jackson Trio

831
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:12,680
Speaker 3: could be another Julio Rodriguez. I think that's uh. Then

832
00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:17,360
Speaker 3: I have like Jefferson Quero is Jan Gomes. So I

833
00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:20,839
Speaker 3: just call that reckless. But it just shows you catching prospects. Man.

834
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:22,600
Speaker 3: Don't expect a lot from them.

835
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:25,279
Speaker 1: No, and Cuero got a bunch of hype. Jesse Roach

836
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:27,839
Speaker 1: Baseball Perspectives. Follow him on Twitter, one of the best.

837
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:30,160
Speaker 1: He's a must follow in the Dynasty world. Thank you

838
00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:32,400
Speaker 1: so much for hanging with us and giving us players

839
00:41:32,400 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 1: to sell here in Dynasty.

840
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:35,440
Speaker 3: Thanks a lot, man, and there you go.

841
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 1: Thank you to Jesse Roach for taking the time to

842
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:40,240
Speaker 1: join me in talking about all those sell some great names.

843
00:41:40,520 --> 00:41:43,360
Speaker 1: Some I agree, some I disagree, and that's all good.

844
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:45,360
Speaker 1: You guys can let us know what you think always

845
00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 1: over in the discord. You can tweet at me at

846
00:41:48,160 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 1: is it the Welsh Fantasy pros all of that great stuff.

847
00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:54,440
Speaker 1: And hopefully, as we are doing this episode right before Christmas,

848
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:57,920
Speaker 1: have a fantastic holiday. We will probably have one episode

849
00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:00,480
Speaker 1: off next week with the Christmas week, and then we

850
00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 1: will be kicking it hard in twenty twenty four. I

851
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:05,439
Speaker 1: got a full schedule of stuff on the dock at,

852
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 1: one of which being a mock draft that I will

853
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:11,400
Speaker 1: be putting together and will be breaking down. So make

854
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:14,160
Speaker 1: sure you're subscribe to the podcast so you miss none

855
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:17,719
Speaker 1: of the episodes. Follow me on Twitter, atzitthe Welsh and

856
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:20,560
Speaker 1: thank you all for hanging at the Fantasy Pros Dynasty

857
00:42:20,560 --> 00:42:21,560
Speaker 1: Baseball Podcast.

858
00:42:21,600 --> 00:42:23,160
Speaker 2: We'll talk to you next time, by friends.

859
00:42:23,480 --> 00:42:26,719
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball Podcast.

860
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:29,320
Speaker 4: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

861
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:32,240
Speaker 4: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

862
00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:36,040
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