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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough? They're running a gay.

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Speaker 2: So smooth, so sweet, splendid sisting just glorious.

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Speaker 3: Ex procution, guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent

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Speaker 3: effort four thousand percent.

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Speaker 1: Of the time.

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Speaker 4: How shot with that shop with mind, buddy, and that's

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Speaker 4: why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 3: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 4: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The wall.

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Speaker 4: It's left too the wide eyed drill pibus, how old

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Speaker 4: Earth pick that happens? Yoga beneath the ladies and gentlemen,

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Speaker 4: and welcome back to Wondergul, the soccer betting podcast from

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Speaker 4: the Action Network. I'm your host, Michael Libaff and joining

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Speaker 4: me today are my colleagues and footy friends Anthony Dubundo

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Speaker 4: and bj Cunningham. Gentlemen, A lot has changed in the

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Speaker 4: Premier League since we last spoke about a fortnit ago

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Speaker 4: Norwich City. They got their first win, then they immediately

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Speaker 4: sacked their manager, Daniel Farka, replaced him with Dean Smith,

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Speaker 4: who himself was sacked just a few days before that

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Speaker 4: by Aston Villa. He was replaced by Steven Gerrard, formerly

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Speaker 4: of Rangers and a former Liverpool legend.

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Speaker 1: Also Eddie Howe.

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Speaker 4: He's now in charge officially of the Kingdom of Saudi

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Speaker 4: Arabia's Premier League team in Newcastle ole a Gunner Solshark.

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Speaker 4: He's still at Manchester United and West Ham. They moved

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Speaker 4: ahead of Liverpool with a win over the Reds in

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Speaker 4: front of a stupendous crowd at Olympic Stadium, and that's

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Speaker 4: where we will start this week's show with Liverpool the

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Speaker 4: match of the week. I would say they're taking on

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Speaker 4: Arsenal at Anfield. Liverpool their minus two to fifteen favorites,

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Speaker 4: Arsenal coming back plus five fifty the draw four to one.

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Speaker 4: It's a twelve thirty pm kickoff Eastern Time on Saturday.

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Speaker 4: BJ you're an Arsenal fan. Mikael Arteta has seemingly sunk

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Speaker 4: his teeth into this team. He's galvanized them. It's a

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Speaker 4: lot of young players, they're coming into some pretty good form.

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Speaker 4: But this Liverpool team, this is a pretty good matchup

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Speaker 4: for them, it seems like, and it could be that

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Speaker 4: perfect time to maybe sell high on the Arteta hype.

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Speaker 4: Is that how you're playing this one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a very interesting match for a lot

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Speaker 2: of reasons. First, Arsenal has been the best team in

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Speaker 2: the Premier League over the last eight match days, picking

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Speaker 2: up twenty points, but in those eight matches they haven't

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Speaker 2: really been tested. Probably the best team they faced throughout

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Speaker 2: those matches is Lester. They won two nothing, but they

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Speaker 2: lost the expected goals battle, and Arsenal over those eight

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Speaker 2: matches had a plus three point nine to seven non

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Speaker 2: penalty expected goal differential, which was fourth in the Premier League.

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Speaker 2: Even their last match against Wafford, Yeah, they put up

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Speaker 2: one point five expected goals and won to one nothing,

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Speaker 2: but half of that came off of miss penalty from

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Speaker 2: Pierre Emrick Obamai Young. They had thirteen shots and only

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Speaker 2: created point seven expected goals outside of the penalty, So

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Speaker 2: that's not good going up against the Liverpool defense that

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Speaker 2: has been playing pretty well now. Arsenal defense has been

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Speaker 2: really good with Ben White and Gabrielle at the center

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Speaker 2: back pairing the last eight matches together, they're only allowing

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Speaker 2: point nine to eight expected goals per match. But again,

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Speaker 2: this is by far the best offense they've seen. Liverpool

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Speaker 2: has consistently just shredded really good defenses. They had seven

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Speaker 2: point two to two expected goals and four matches against

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Speaker 2: West Ham Manchester City and two matches against Athletic CO

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Speaker 2: Madrid in the Champions League. And the biggest problem for

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Speaker 2: Arsenal in this match is they don't press at a

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Speaker 2: very high rates, which we've seen how you actually beat Liverpool,

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Speaker 2: you know, using Brighton west Ham's examples, Arsenal is dead

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Speaker 2: last and passes per defensive action nineteenth in total pressures.

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Speaker 2: So Liverpool is basically going to be able to pick

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Speaker 2: out whatever passes they want. This is a really bad

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Speaker 2: matchup for Arsenal. The last four times they've gone to

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Speaker 2: anfield they've lost by multiple goals. I have Liverpool's spread

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Speaker 2: projected at minus one point four to two, so I

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Speaker 2: think there's some value on Liverpool at home at minus

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Speaker 2: one and a half at plus one thirty and I

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Speaker 2: think Arsenal's probably gonna start to regress sadly.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Arsenal only six points off the top of the

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Speaker 4: table all of a sudden. Pretty wild. I will say

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Speaker 4: one thing, like we talked about it or in the

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Speaker 4: earlier episodes, Liverpool's schedule was very favorable to start the

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Speaker 4: season started to play some tougher teams. They have two wins,

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Speaker 4: two draws and a loss. That loss came to west Ham,

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Speaker 4: draws against Brighton the City, so good teams. So that's

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Speaker 4: over their last five, so they're slowing down a little bit.

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Speaker 4: I think I'm gonna wait to see where this thing goes.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna bet it. I would be much more inclined

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Speaker 4: to betting a small bet on Arsenal if this number drifts,

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Speaker 4: but I'm not totally sure if it will because of

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Speaker 4: what we've seen in the market and the fact that

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Speaker 4: Arsenal are coming in at such a high and Liverpool

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Speaker 4: are coming off the lost at west Ham. Anthony, do

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Speaker 4: you think this line's gonna move towards Arsenal away from

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Speaker 4: Arsenal And how are you betting it? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: You know, Arsenal's seen a little bit of love in

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Speaker 3: the market here. I thought we'd get sub two hundred.

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Speaker 3: We did not. I was disappointed. That's where I was

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Speaker 3: hoping to jump in on Liverpool. I'm gonna wait to

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Speaker 3: see how the market moves on this one, but I

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Speaker 3: think BJ mentioned the number one point here. Arsenal dead

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Speaker 3: last in passive per defensive action. Liverpool first and opponents

104
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Speaker 3: passi per defensive action allowed. It's very hard to see

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Speaker 3: how Arsenal consistently wins the ball off Liverpool here and

106
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Speaker 3: can then start counterattacks that way. They're also so used

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Speaker 3: to having the ball when they play these kind of

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Speaker 3: minno sides in the Premier League, and they've set up

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Speaker 3: good possession structures, and Arteta deserves credit for improving the

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Speaker 3: Arsenal defense. We've seen in the past under Arteta, though,

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Speaker 3: is when they play these big sides who don't let

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Speaker 3: them have the ball, who pressed them with intensity and

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Speaker 3: who make them rush a little bit and not have

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Speaker 3: just easy, slow possession, They've struggled a lot more. We've

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Speaker 3: seen that in games against Manchester City and Chelsea and

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Speaker 3: Liverpool in the last few years they played. Last year,

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Speaker 3: Arsenal snuck a fluke goal and then got completely run

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Speaker 3: off the pitch. The only two times that they've really

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Speaker 3: managed to find success has been sitting in a deep

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Speaker 3: low block and then hitting a counter or two. It

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Speaker 3: worked against City in the FA Cup semifinals back in

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Speaker 3: twenty nineteen, the beginning of the Arteta era, and then

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Speaker 3: even last year when they played Chelsea at the end

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Speaker 3: of the season, they got a result similar way, but

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Speaker 3: they got pretty fortunate. I just don't have a lot

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Speaker 3: of faith in Arsenal's defense here. I know that they've

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Speaker 3: played better of late, but like Bja mentioned, the improving

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Speaker 3: schedule or the easier schedule gets a whole lot harder

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Speaker 3: in this game. And you're going to see a Liverpool

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Speaker 3: team that's gonna have both Fabinho and Thiago back. It

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Speaker 3: looks like so no Bobby for me, know, he's out

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Speaker 3: a while. Jotta fits in nicely there almost one goal

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Speaker 3: and assist per ninety this year, but Fabinho and Thiago

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Speaker 3: make a huge difference in Liverpool midfield.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: One thing I'll point out is that mckel or tests

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Speaker 2: as a pep GUARDI old disciple, so that means he

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Speaker 2: wills just switch formations at a moments known as Arsenal

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Speaker 2: has messed around a little bit with a four to

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Speaker 2: four two against Manchester City, they played a four or

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Speaker 2: five to one, so we could see Arsenal come out

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Speaker 2: in something very defensive and try to play two low

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Speaker 2: box and hit Liverpool on the counter.

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Speaker 1: But no matter which way you look at it, it's

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Speaker 1: just not a good matchup for Arsenal.

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Speaker 4: All right, let's move on to Saturday seven thirty am

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Speaker 4: kickoff Leicester City at home plus three eighty, taking on

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Speaker 4: top of the table Chelsea there minus one thirty the

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Speaker 4: draw plus two to seventy five. Lest There's been all

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Speaker 4: over the map this season. They had a bad draw

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Speaker 4: against Crystal Palace, followed that up with a big win

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Speaker 4: against Manchester United, then consolidated that with a gutsy win

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Speaker 4: over Brentford and then an unlucky ish lost against Arsenal

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Speaker 4: and then a bad draw against Leeds. This team they

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Speaker 4: drive me nuts. I think they drive all of us nuts.

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Speaker 4: I don't think that they're worth the bet at this

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Speaker 4: number if it does tick up at home, because I

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Speaker 4: do think they're going to score this game. I think

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Speaker 4: this Chelsea defense is a little bit vulnerable and Lester

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Speaker 4: has the finishers to get at them. But I need

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Speaker 4: this number to tick up a little bit more for

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Speaker 4: me to get involved in the lesser money line. But

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Speaker 4: that's basically the only way I'm looking at it, Anthony,

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Speaker 4: what about you?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: One major question mark here for Lester. Eyuri Tilamans was

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Speaker 3: injured before the international break did not play for Belgium

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Speaker 3: in those matches. That they had in the European qualifiers.

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Speaker 3: Let's City don't really have anybody who can kind of

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Speaker 3: replace his passing slash possessing ability in the middle of

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Speaker 3: the park. He's not really a ball winner, but he

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Speaker 3: does a good job with progressive passing. And the way

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Speaker 3: Madison's been playing, where he's been very out of form, Tilaman'

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Speaker 3: has been very important for them. Chelsea win leading this year,

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Speaker 3: averaging one point six y eight expected goals allowed per

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Speaker 3: ninety They have not been able to kill off games effectively.

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Speaker 3: Third most minutes played when leading two, so it's not

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Speaker 3: really a small sample. They've been ahead a lot and

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Speaker 3: they haven't been very good defense when they've been ahead.

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Speaker 3: I think that's really a spot where they're vulnerable if

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Speaker 3: they get an early goal, which they've gotten a ton

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Speaker 3: of early goals this year. I think Lester will be

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Speaker 3: able to get back into this game, despite Leicester playing

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Speaker 3: is a bit of a counter attacking kind of team

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Speaker 3: when they play against the big boys. I may end

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Speaker 3: up playing Lester as well, but really I'm looking to

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Speaker 3: play both teams to score here. Minus one to eighteen

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Speaker 3: is the current number that you can shop around. There's

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Speaker 3: some one twenties one to fifteen eighteen is where I

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Speaker 3: am four goals allowed from eleven point one expected for Chelsea.

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Speaker 3: We've talked about this over and over again on this podcast.

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Speaker 3: Edward Mendy as good as he's been, nobody's that good.

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Speaker 3: The reality is Mendy has saved more goals than anybody

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Speaker 3: in the prem But also it's just been more bad

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Speaker 3: shooting teams that are playing Chelsea this year. Eleven point

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Speaker 3: five expected goals against, but the post shot numbers are

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Speaker 3: six point nine. So what does that mean. It means

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Speaker 3: when teams are shooting against Chelsea, they're just not shooting

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Speaker 3: well and that tends to regress and come back to normal.

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Speaker 3: So looking to play against this Chelsea defense at all

201
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Speaker 3: costs Macy romel Lukaku off the bench. I doubt it,

202
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Speaker 3: but he could get minutes. He's working his way back

203
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Speaker 3: to fitness. Ultimately, here though, I think both teams get

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Speaker 3: on the board.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Chelsea had a fun little stretch where I think

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Speaker 4: they outscored Southampton, Norwich, Brentford and Newcastle fourteen to one,

207
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Speaker 4: and then Burnley comes in in Burnley's then with a

208
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Speaker 4: one to one draw. It's just you gotta love the

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Speaker 4: Premier League, gotta love Burnley BJ. What about you? Do

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Speaker 4: you think it's this is a game where you lay

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Speaker 4: the chalk with Chelsea or you backing the Foxes.

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Speaker 1: Now I'm backing in the Foxes. It's finally time just

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Speaker 1: to fade Chelsea.

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Speaker 2: They've had a very easy schedule for the past few months,

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Speaker 2: so it's been hard to play against them. Like you

216
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Speaker 2: mentioned that Matchkins Burly, I think they had a little

217
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Speaker 2: over three expected goals.

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Speaker 1: And somehow and drew one to one.

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Speaker 2: But the big thing for Lester is we've talked about

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Speaker 2: them turning a corner offensively. They're much better at home

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Speaker 2: than they are on the road, around a plus two

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Speaker 2: expect a goal diffrenchial at home versus minus two on

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Speaker 2: the road. But the big thing is is Brendan Rodgers

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Speaker 2: needs to play out of a three four one two formation.

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Speaker 2: That's the only formation in which they have a positive

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Speaker 2: expected goal differential lot of this season. Which also allows

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Speaker 2: him to play some combination of Vardi doc Ri Nacho

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Speaker 2: up top and also allows James Madison to play his

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Speaker 2: natural number ten role. We've talked about the Chelsea defensive regression.

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Speaker 2: This is the type of match where it's gonna come,

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Speaker 2: or at least it should come. So I only have

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Speaker 2: Chelsea projected at minus one o five, So I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: take Lester plus half a goal plus one twenty.

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Speaker 4: All right, let's move on to one of the ten

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Speaker 4: am kickoffs on Saturday. This is a fun one. We'll

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Speaker 4: head to Watford their plus five fifty on the money

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Speaker 4: line at home against Ole Gunner Sol Shars Manchester United.

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Speaker 4: There minus two hundred. The draw is plus three seventy.

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Speaker 4: You cannot lay this number with Manchester United right now.

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Speaker 4: You just can't do it. I mean, I could see

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Speaker 4: some people just maybe wanting to sprinkle them into like

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Speaker 4: a money line parlay with whatever teams they're betting in

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Speaker 4: college football, maybe Liverpool or whatever. I just cannot fathom anybody.

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Speaker 4: You have to be sick in the head. I'm gonna

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Speaker 4: take a shot with Watford plus five fifty. We talked

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Speaker 4: about a little bit at some point. This Manchester United

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Speaker 4: team is just kind of gonna quit on Ole Gunner

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Speaker 4: sol Shark because they know he is a little bit

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Speaker 4: of a lame duck and a loss against a team

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Speaker 4: like Watford would certainly be it. And Watford it's been

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Speaker 4: al right, the past three games Clardio Renieri comes in.

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Speaker 4: His first game was an utter disaster against Liverpool, but

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Speaker 4: since then they have a win against Everton. God it

254
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Speaker 4: was depressing to watch, but then they hung with Saints

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Speaker 4: and they were unlucky against Arsenal. Right, Like that was

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Speaker 4: a weird goal that Arsenal won the game one nil

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Speaker 4: on where Watford put the ball out of play because

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Speaker 4: they thought there was an injury. Arsenal didn't give it

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Speaker 4: back to them and then there should have been a

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Speaker 4: foul and the build up wasn't called Arsenal ads up

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Speaker 4: scoring and winning one nil. So I think Watford's worth

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Speaker 4: a bet at home plus five fifty against a very

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Speaker 4: very vulnerable Manchester United side. BJ where are you going?

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Speaker 1: I agree? I like Watford plus one and plus one ten.

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Speaker 2: I mean, this is probably gonna suck, but you know Watford,

266
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Speaker 2: like you mentioned, like outside of two crazy offensive outbursts

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Speaker 2: against Norwich and Everton, they haven't really been that great offensively.

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Speaker 2: But I do think they'll be able to create something

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Speaker 2: against Manchester United because their defense is really really bad

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Speaker 2: right now. The Red Devils are fifteenth in the Premier

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Speaker 2: League and non penalty expectacles allowed fourteenth and big scoring

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Speaker 2: chance a loud and Afford his tenth and big scoring

273
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Speaker 2: chances created. So I do think Watford has a good

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Speaker 2: chance of getting on the board here. Also, Paul Pogla

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Speaker 2: and Raphael Verone are out for Manchester United. Vane is

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Speaker 2: the big loss here because we saw it against Manchester City.

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Speaker 2: If only Gonna Solshar is going to play a Harry McGuire,

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Speaker 2: Victor Lindelof and Eric Bye back three, that's just not

279
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Speaker 2: going to work going forward. And the biggest problem is,

280
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Speaker 2: like we've mentioned, Ronaldo provides nothing defensively. Even Bruno Fernandez

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Speaker 2: and Mason Greenwood and Marcus Rashford don't really help out

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Speaker 2: that much offense defensively, which basically leaves Fred and Scott mctomanay,

283
00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:35,079
Speaker 2: who aren't you know that great of defensive midfielders in

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Speaker 2: their own right on islands and they have to defend

285
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Speaker 2: three four guys. So it's just a system that doesn't

286
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Speaker 2: work all. Gunny Solshar has shown time and time again

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Speaker 2: that he's not a tactical mastermind at all. I mean,

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Speaker 2: Claudia Ernaria might be able to outduel him in this one.

289
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Speaker 1: Rob Wafford's the defense. I mean it's bad. They're leaking

290
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Speaker 1: goals left and right.

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Speaker 2: They like you said, they had a good performance against Arsenal,

292
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Speaker 2: but their nineteenth and non penalty expectacles allowed fifteenth and

293
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Speaker 2: shots per ninety and seventeenth and box centuries allowed. But

294
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Speaker 2: given the man that's just United defensive problems and no

295
00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:04,520
Speaker 2: Paul Poglo Ralph el Verona. I do think Watford can

296
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Speaker 2: hang in this match. I have Manchester United projected minus

297
00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:08,880
Speaker 2: one thirty nine. If you look at five thirty eight,

298
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Speaker 2: they have manually at fifty eight percent, So I think

299
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Speaker 2: there's some value on Watford at plus one a plus

300
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Speaker 2: one ten.

301
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Speaker 4: Anthony Elton John he's a huge Watford supporter. One of

302
00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:21,599
Speaker 4: the stands at their stadium is named Vicarage Road is

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Speaker 4: named after him. Are you gonna make this three for

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Speaker 4: three on Sir Elton's hornets?

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00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:28,520
Speaker 3: I guess the hornets are yellow too, so that kind

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Speaker 3: of works in Vicarage Road, you know, yellow Bick Road.

307
00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:33,319
Speaker 3: Maybe I don't know, but what I do know is

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Speaker 3: that everything that you know BJ said, I pretty much

309
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Speaker 3: agree with my numbers one sixty one. I'm man United.

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Speaker 3: I like them more than he does, but not in

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Speaker 3: this matchup at all. The reality here is Watford's pretty

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00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:44,080
Speaker 3: good on the counter. They have pieces who can threaten

313
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Speaker 3: Man United on the counter attack United getting way. Look,

314
00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:51,040
Speaker 3: I know the storyline is that Ronaldo is saving the

315
00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:53,120
Speaker 3: job of oly Gonna sol sharp when you look at

316
00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:56,400
Speaker 3: his numbers, like last year at Juventus zero point eight

317
00:13:56,559 --> 00:13:59,959
Speaker 3: five actually p ninety and a little over five shots.

318
00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:02,360
Speaker 3: That's elite striker level, plays some of the best in

319
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Speaker 3: the world, and you can say, okay, well, we'll salvage

320
00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:06,439
Speaker 3: the fact that he's not going to do any defensive work.

321
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Speaker 3: If we're getting that kind of shot production. What is

322
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Speaker 3: he doing this year at Man United? Zero point five

323
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Speaker 3: x g per ninety and a little over three shots

324
00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:17,360
Speaker 3: per ninety that's you know, you're losing out onto two

325
00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:19,040
Speaker 3: shots and almost you know, a third of a goal

326
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Speaker 3: per match. That's significant. He's on a bit of a

327
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Speaker 3: hot finishing run, which is fine with him, and you know,

328
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Speaker 3: all the goals come in the last minute, so it

329
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Speaker 3: looks they feel more important than they are. But the

330
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Speaker 3: reality is that he is not providing enough going forward

331
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Speaker 3: to outweigh the drawbacks of him going and not defending whatsoever.

332
00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:39,840
Speaker 3: Not pressuring, and Ali doesn't seem to have the answers

333
00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:41,600
Speaker 3: on how to sort that out. Are they really going

334
00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:43,440
Speaker 3: to play three at the back again against Watford? And

335
00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:45,600
Speaker 3: what you know, they're not good out of it in

336
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Speaker 3: terms of trying to progress the ball up the field. Watford,

337
00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:51,120
Speaker 3: if they're smart, if unit he comes out into back three,

338
00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:53,600
Speaker 3: let Wan Besaka run up and down the right wing

339
00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:56,320
Speaker 3: because don't guard him, he'll just send in terrible cross.

340
00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:58,400
Speaker 3: If a terrible cross, he's awful, and build up. There's

341
00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:00,760
Speaker 3: rumors that Jayden Sancho might get some run out at

342
00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:03,640
Speaker 3: right wing back. I mean, they're an absolute disaster. And

343
00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:05,800
Speaker 3: when you look at the fact that Iran is out,

344
00:15:05,880 --> 00:15:08,560
Speaker 3: Paga is out, what happens is all of the good

345
00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:10,480
Speaker 3: attacking players on the left side of the field. There's

346
00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:12,960
Speaker 3: almost nothing creative on the right. They've been putting Greenwood there,

347
00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:15,720
Speaker 3: who's good, but not good enough at his current state

348
00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:18,360
Speaker 3: to be a consistent striker or winger in the Premier

349
00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:20,440
Speaker 3: League for a top five team, which what United is

350
00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:23,040
Speaker 3: supposed to be. You know, Watford gets crushed by teams

351
00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:26,560
Speaker 3: who can press effectively. Liverpool showed this city. The top

352
00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:31,040
Speaker 3: teams have pretty much smushed them, but United vulnerable defensively,

353
00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:32,920
Speaker 3: so I think you know, I'm also on the plus one.

354
00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:34,880
Speaker 3: We'll make it a three for three here. Maybe United

355
00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:36,960
Speaker 3: finds their form after the international break, but I'm not

356
00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:39,120
Speaker 3: betting on it, so I like Watford as one.

357
00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:43,600
Speaker 4: Weld that's closer, Claudio Ranieri, We're all on Watford, all right.

358
00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:46,000
Speaker 4: We'll move on from two bad teams to two good teams.

359
00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:49,280
Speaker 4: Wolves plus two hundred at home taken on west Ham

360
00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:52,320
Speaker 4: plus one forty five. The draw is plus two thirty.

361
00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:55,800
Speaker 4: This is another ten am kickoff on Saturday. Look Wick,

362
00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:59,280
Speaker 4: we all oh west Ham, a big thank you the

363
00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:04,000
Speaker 4: whole team or sensational against Liverpool. Really just maybe the

364
00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:06,640
Speaker 4: match of the season thus far, and one that we

365
00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:09,640
Speaker 4: as a soccer better if you had maybe not been

366
00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:11,880
Speaker 4: betting soccer, or you don't find it that interesting. You

367
00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:13,160
Speaker 4: put a little money on a game like that and

368
00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:15,080
Speaker 4: all of a sudden you're sucked in and you can

369
00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:18,120
Speaker 4: see why it's such a fun sport to bet every weekend.

370
00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:21,920
Speaker 4: That being said, it's I think a very very classic

371
00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:25,000
Speaker 4: cell high spot here on west Ham against another really

372
00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:27,440
Speaker 4: good team. Wolves. Are they weren't off to the races

373
00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:29,320
Speaker 4: at all against Pallace and they came up really short.

374
00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:31,440
Speaker 4: I'm willing to kind of cross that that game out

375
00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:33,720
Speaker 4: and hope that their overall body of work is what

376
00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:37,000
Speaker 4: shows here. Their defense is good enough to handle or

377
00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:40,400
Speaker 4: at least compete with west Ham's near elite offense, and

378
00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:42,800
Speaker 4: wolves offense is pretty good too. They're great at creating

379
00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:46,400
Speaker 4: good scoring chances they rank third and big scoring chances created,

380
00:16:46,520 --> 00:16:48,960
Speaker 4: so they're just a really good team top five, and

381
00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:51,120
Speaker 4: a lot of defensive metrics as well. So I like

382
00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:53,840
Speaker 4: getting plus two hundred against a team. Yes, west Ham's

383
00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:56,400
Speaker 4: a tier above them, I'll readily admit that, but at

384
00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:58,480
Speaker 4: home getting two to one on a team like Wolves

385
00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:00,800
Speaker 4: against a team that is just one above them, I'm

386
00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:02,600
Speaker 4: going to take that and run with it.

387
00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:03,520
Speaker 1: So I like Wolves here.

388
00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:07,720
Speaker 4: Bruno Laja's revolution is going well, BJ What about you?

389
00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:11,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, Probably the most shocking result of the Premier League

390
00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:13,960
Speaker 2: like matches before the international break, I thought was Wolves

391
00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:16,000
Speaker 2: just getting thoroughly dominated by Crystal Palace.

392
00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:18,159
Speaker 1: I'll be honest, I did not see that coming at all,

393
00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:19,239
Speaker 1: So hand up here.

394
00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:22,320
Speaker 2: Wolves obviously, like you said, does have a fantastic defense record,

395
00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:24,680
Speaker 2: their fourth in the Premier League non penalty expect goals

396
00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:26,639
Speaker 2: allowed fifth and shots per ninety allowed and third and

397
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,360
Speaker 2: big scoring chances allowed. But in those eleven matches, they've

398
00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:32,320
Speaker 2: only faced three offenses inside the top ten of the

399
00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:35,399
Speaker 2: expected goals table, and none of those were inside the

400
00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:37,680
Speaker 2: top five, which west Ham is. And this west Ham team,

401
00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:40,840
Speaker 2: like we saw, they are so unbelievably good right now.

402
00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:43,159
Speaker 2: They did lose the expected goals bat at Liverpool, but

403
00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:45,760
Speaker 2: that's the first time that they've actually lost the expected

404
00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:48,720
Speaker 2: goals battle since September nineteenth. You know, with Michael Antonio

405
00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:50,960
Speaker 2: up top, they're averaging one point eight three expected goals

406
00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:53,040
Speaker 2: for match with their third and shots per ninety fifth

407
00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:55,320
Speaker 2: and big scoring chances. But the biggest thing for them

408
00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:58,280
Speaker 2: offensively is that Wolves is the best pressing team in

409
00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:00,560
Speaker 2: terms of pressure success rate, and west Ham as top

410
00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:02,359
Speaker 2: five against pressure. So I think they'll be able to

411
00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:05,400
Speaker 2: break down Wolves's defense and put a couple pass together

412
00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:07,639
Speaker 2: and get forward. One big concern for west Ham, and

413
00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:09,280
Speaker 2: this one is that they're middle of the road and

414
00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:12,600
Speaker 2: big scoring chances allowed, and like you mentioned, Wolves is

415
00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:15,640
Speaker 2: up there third in that same category. Offensively, also, west

416
00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:18,480
Speaker 2: Ham's seventeenth and crosses completed in their own eighteen yard box,

417
00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:20,920
Speaker 2: so Alton orient Tomato getting forward out and the Wings

418
00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:22,680
Speaker 2: could be able to find him in as inside the

419
00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:24,840
Speaker 2: box for a few chances. And you know, west Ham's

420
00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:26,560
Speaker 2: pretty average in terms of aerial duels.

421
00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:26,760
Speaker 4: One.

422
00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:29,080
Speaker 2: Also, this is really really big for west Ham. Deklan

423
00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:31,959
Speaker 2: Rice is questionable. If he is out. That is detrimental

424
00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:35,120
Speaker 2: to west Ham defensively because he helps out that backline

425
00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:37,680
Speaker 2: that it's been good but not great so far this season,

426
00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:39,560
Speaker 2: and it's going to really hurt them with how good

427
00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:41,600
Speaker 2: Wolves is in transition. I actually kind of like the

428
00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:44,080
Speaker 2: over here. I have two points seventy three goals projected

429
00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:46,080
Speaker 2: for this one, so I love two over two and

430
00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:47,240
Speaker 2: a half goals at plus.

431
00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:47,560
Speaker 1: One oh five.

432
00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:50,480
Speaker 4: Yeah. I think Rice's status will be interesting too, because

433
00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:52,480
Speaker 4: I think if you are betting Wolves, like I'm going

434
00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:54,480
Speaker 4: to wait and see if there is some west Ham

435
00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:56,679
Speaker 4: loft coming off that result, it gets Liverpool, but if

436
00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:58,600
Speaker 4: Brice is out, I don't expect that to be the

437
00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:02,679
Speaker 4: case regardless. Let's move on Aston Villa with Steven Gerard

438
00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:05,920
Speaker 4: in charge. Their plus one fifty home favorites against Brighton

439
00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:09,040
Speaker 4: their plus one ninety five the draw City plus two thirty,

440
00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:12,760
Speaker 4: another ten am kickoff on Saturday. Aston Villa's last five

441
00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:14,760
Speaker 4: in a row. I think that, and this is I'm

442
00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:17,400
Speaker 4: not the only one thinking this too. Firing Dean Smith

443
00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:20,520
Speaker 4: maybe wasn't the smartest idea. I get that losing five

444
00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:22,800
Speaker 4: in a row is not great. It took a little

445
00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:25,240
Speaker 4: bit of time for him to assimilate his new pieces,

446
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:27,919
Speaker 4: maybe longer than aston Villa wanted. But then you bring

447
00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:30,720
Speaker 4: in Steven Gerard. Yeah, like he did well with Rangers.

448
00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:33,360
Speaker 4: But that's the Scottish Premier League where there's really only

449
00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:35,480
Speaker 4: two teams that have the money to spend and buy

450
00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:37,600
Speaker 4: the league title. I don't think it's a I think

451
00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:40,000
Speaker 4: it's a little questionable. This game sets up actually pretty

452
00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:43,159
Speaker 4: nicely for a draw. Brighton pretty slow moving team. They

453
00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:45,640
Speaker 4: average the third lowest total goals in the Premier League

454
00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:47,760
Speaker 4: right now two point one eight coming into this match,

455
00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:49,959
Speaker 4: so I think this is a team that is going

456
00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:51,600
Speaker 4: to be working out the kinks of a new system

457
00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:54,640
Speaker 4: under a new manager, taking on a really good defensive

458
00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:56,600
Speaker 4: team at Brighton. I like to draw. I think the

459
00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:58,600
Speaker 4: total is pretty low. I think it's juiced on to

460
00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:00,560
Speaker 4: the under two and a half, so maybe a one

461
00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:02,800
Speaker 4: to one game here and I can get to the

462
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:04,480
Speaker 4: wind up Anthony, What about you?

463
00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:07,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, sign me up for one to one. I like

464
00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:09,159
Speaker 3: under two and a half goals. I'll have the right

465
00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:10,680
Speaker 3: up for this game. You can check that out on

466
00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:13,920
Speaker 3: the Action Network. That'll be up on Friday for the

467
00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:17,000
Speaker 3: Saturday game. The reality here is that we're dealing with

468
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:19,800
Speaker 3: two of the three least efficient teams in the league

469
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:24,720
Speaker 3: at turning final third possession into both box possession and shots.

470
00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:28,480
Speaker 3: Brighton has really struggled with their shots this year. The

471
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:30,800
Speaker 3: numbers are way down in terms of chances created, in

472
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:34,200
Speaker 3: terms of shots created. The reality is, when Neil Molpe

473
00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:36,080
Speaker 3: is your only main shot gutter, you're just not going

474
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:38,880
Speaker 3: to get enough from these other guys around the pitch

475
00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:40,440
Speaker 3: to make up for that. We've talked about that on

476
00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:43,200
Speaker 3: the pod. I've said this before. Reality is Brighton's defense

477
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,320
Speaker 3: continues to be excellent. They're great with the ball at

478
00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:47,440
Speaker 3: their feet, they play through pressure really well. They don't

479
00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:50,720
Speaker 3: concede high quality chances too often. Robert Sanchez is out

480
00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:53,119
Speaker 3: for this match. Don't love that for the under that

481
00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:56,919
Speaker 3: being said, and Waipu may not play. He's been getting

482
00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:58,840
Speaker 3: forward a little more I think he's getting a little

483
00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:01,440
Speaker 3: bit of freedom from Potter to to kind of push

484
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:03,879
Speaker 3: forward a little bit more. The reality though, again, like

485
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:08,200
Speaker 3: I said, Brighton this year is maintenance defensive solidity, and

486
00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:11,320
Speaker 3: Villa's defense will improve under Gerrard. I know it's it's

487
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:14,480
Speaker 3: the Scottish Premier League, but even for you know Rangers

488
00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:18,119
Speaker 3: quality and typical comparing to pass Rangers teams, they were

489
00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:22,200
Speaker 3: historically good defensively conceded almost nothing to their opponents. He

490
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 3: deserves a lot of credit for that. Tactically organizing a team,

491
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:27,240
Speaker 3: I think they'll improve. So I'm looking to get go

492
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,640
Speaker 3: by low on this Villa defense. But attacking wise, I'm

493
00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 3: not really buying the you know the They bought a

494
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:36,639
Speaker 3: bunch of pieces to replace Grealish, but Ings and Watkins

495
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:39,480
Speaker 3: don't really work together and there's kind of a you know,

496
00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 3: an issue. They had Watkins playing out wide, and Leon

497
00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:44,359
Speaker 3: Bailey has been in and out of the lineup with injuries,

498
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:46,560
Speaker 3: and Emmy Bundia has barely played. When he's played, he's

499
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 3: played really poorly, so I'm not really sure what's going

500
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 3: on there. I think it's going to take some time

501
00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:53,200
Speaker 3: for Villa has to sort out these attacking issues, so

502
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:55,199
Speaker 3: I think this is an undergame. Two teams who are

503
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,679
Speaker 3: struggling to create chances from possession. Leads to a lot

504
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:00,520
Speaker 3: of back and forth, but not a lot of shots.

505
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:02,840
Speaker 3: So I'm going with the under here and you can

506
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:04,280
Speaker 3: read my full right up on the website.

507
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:07,240
Speaker 4: Dean Smith's new team Norwich plus two to sixty five

508
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 4: at home against Saints Southampton there plus one ten the

509
00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:13,520
Speaker 4: draw City at plus two forty five another ten am kickoff.

510
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:15,960
Speaker 4: This was a game that originally I didn't think I

511
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 4: was going to play, but I actually believe that Dean

512
00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:20,879
Speaker 4: Smith might get a little bit more out of the

513
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,080
Speaker 4: Norwich team than Daniel Farkatt, who, by the way, tip

514
00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:25,040
Speaker 4: of the cat cashes a ticket on his way out

515
00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 4: for us at a five to one of all numbers.

516
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:30,680
Speaker 4: So thank you for that, Daniel. But what Dean Smith

517
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 4: did really well at Aston Villa was during Project Restart

518
00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:35,879
Speaker 4: after the hiatus, he got that Villa defense which was

519
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 4: terrible in line and what's Noorich has probably been. Their

520
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:42,159
Speaker 4: defensive shape has been a mess, their defensive numbers are

521
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:44,000
Speaker 4: a mess. So I think he comes in and he

522
00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:46,200
Speaker 4: might be able to solidify this team and their minus

523
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:48,359
Speaker 4: won sixty five right now to finish last their minus

524
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 4: seven to fifty to be relegated. They're probably going to

525
00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 4: do both of those things, but just something to keep

526
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 4: in mind. Maybe if you are maybe a Norich City fan,

527
00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:57,680
Speaker 4: or you fell in love with them, or you like

528
00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 4: Dean Smith for some reason, I could see investment on

529
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,400
Speaker 4: them to not finish last, or to bet another team,

530
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:06,280
Speaker 4: maybe Newcastle, to finish last, as a way to invest

531
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:08,200
Speaker 4: in Norg. But I actually think that they're worth a

532
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:11,160
Speaker 4: little bit of a bet here at home new manager bounce.

533
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 4: As Anthony talked about on our last episode, that is

534
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:15,680
Speaker 4: a thing, right, Teams do play a little bit better

535
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 4: under a new manager. The numbers bear it out. This

536
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:20,040
Speaker 4: team isn't good, so you know, maybe it's just not

537
00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:22,440
Speaker 4: going to happen for them, But I believe that they're

538
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:25,000
Speaker 4: going to be better than what we've seen. They're coming

539
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 4: off a win, they celebrated that win. They should be

540
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:28,920
Speaker 4: feeling a little bit better about themselves. So give me

541
00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:31,640
Speaker 4: the Canaries once again plus two sixty five at home.

542
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:34,199
Speaker 4: Hopefully that number might even tick up a little bit too,

543
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:37,479
Speaker 4: because Southampton has been in pretty good form. Anthony, are

544
00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,560
Speaker 4: you joining me on the Canaries, the pain train or

545
00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:42,040
Speaker 4: are you going somewhere else in this one?

546
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:44,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm sorry. In the total two and a half goals,

547
00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:48,920
Speaker 3: Southampton's goalie McCarthy one of the worst in the league

548
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:51,360
Speaker 3: the last couple of years in terms of post shot

549
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 3: expected goals plus or minus. This year among the league's best. Now,

550
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,359
Speaker 3: I don't believe that for a second. It tends to

551
00:23:57,400 --> 00:23:59,399
Speaker 3: be noisy in the short term. Do not expect him

552
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,200
Speaker 3: to continue to save the shots that he's been saving.

553
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:05,440
Speaker 3: We're also talking about going forward, the two worst attacks

554
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 3: in terms of finishing this season, when you consider chances

555
00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 3: created and chances finished, they're at the very bottom of

556
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:14,720
Speaker 3: the table along with Manchester City and so Norwich totally

557
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 3: unable to hold the lead as well.

558
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 4: Two point two.

559
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,959
Speaker 3: Expected goals allowed to Brentford really have struggled. I mean

560
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 3: they've struggled at all times, but struggled especially in even

561
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:28,200
Speaker 3: game states. They've fallen behind a lot early. I can't

562
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:31,199
Speaker 3: get behind Norwich here because I'm kind of curious as

563
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:34,480
Speaker 3: to what Dean Smith will do with this team. He

564
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 3: could improve the defense, but they still have other issues.

565
00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:40,399
Speaker 3: One thing to watch here, Redmond and Levermento Nathan Redmond

566
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 3: both questionable, both have played well of late, and I

567
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:46,480
Speaker 3: are pretty good attacking pieces and kind of fit the

568
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:50,399
Speaker 3: Hasenhudo mold pretty well. Definitely going to be watching if

569
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 3: they play or not. But I did fire already on

570
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:55,560
Speaker 3: two and a half over minus one oh five, I

571
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 3: project two point sixty five goals almost two and a half.

572
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:01,480
Speaker 3: Not quite a big difference, but enough for me to

573
00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:04,159
Speaker 3: play it given the regression coming for both attacks and

574
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:08,160
Speaker 3: again not buying the Alex McCarthy revival season whatsoever.

575
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 4: And let's move on to what should be a ratings bonanza.

576
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 4: We got Burnley at home. They're plus one to eighty five,

577
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 4: slight underdogs against Crystal Palace plus one sixty the draws

578
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:20,879
Speaker 4: plus two twenty five. I truly believe Burnley's better than

579
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 4: their results so far this season. However, I'm not willing

580
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 4: to get in front of this Crystal Palace team right now.

581
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 4: The defense has been really, really good under Patrick Viea

582
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 4: their third and non penalty expected goals against their third

583
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:35,119
Speaker 4: A big chances against. They're not the greatest team at

584
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,639
Speaker 4: defending across, which doesn't concern me a little bit, but

585
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:39,960
Speaker 4: I like this midfield to win out the talent to

586
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 4: win out in this game. So I think a bet

587
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 4: On Palace at plus one sixty is totally fine on

588
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 4: the road at Burnley. It's definitely not gonna be the

589
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:49,720
Speaker 4: game of the weekend, at least right now it doesn't

590
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 4: look like it's gonna set up to be. But I

591
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,720
Speaker 4: think this Crystal Palace team is definitely want to put

592
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:55,399
Speaker 4: on your list as a team that you should be

593
00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 4: backing regularly, especially against better opposition. So why not take

594
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:02,399
Speaker 4: a shot here at a decent number? BJ Do you

595
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 4: see anything in this matchup?

596
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 1: Yeah? I kind of lean Burnley a little bit. Obviously.

597
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 2: The Crystal Palace defense has been very impressive, but Jockey

598
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 2: Manderson is questionable, which is big because he's played pretty

599
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 2: much every single match next to Marquee.

600
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 1: One big thing to.

601
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 2: Look out, and you always have to look out whenever

602
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:20,680
Speaker 2: you're handicapping Burnley is how good are the opposing team

603
00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 2: defending corners? Because Burnley has created five point six expected

604
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:26,880
Speaker 2: goals off of corners this season but only scored three.

605
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:30,200
Speaker 2: Crystal Palace has allowed six goals off of corners this season.

606
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 2: So and like you already mentioned, you know, allowing a

607
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 2: ton of cross to their own box. That's not great

608
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 2: against a Burnley team that basically just scores all of

609
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 2: their goals off headers.

610
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:40,160
Speaker 1: So I lean Burnley.

611
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:42,719
Speaker 2: If Crystal Palace gets steamed, you'll probably see a Burnley

612
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 2: play come in on the action or cap for me.

613
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 2: But other than that, it's just to stay away, all right.

614
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:51,239
Speaker 4: Let's move on. Newcastle plus one sixty five there at

615
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 4: home against Brentford plus one seventy five. That draw plus

616
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 4: two thirty. Betting against this Newcastle team is going to

617
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:58,879
Speaker 4: be something I'm going to do a lot for the

618
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:01,280
Speaker 4: rest of the season. I talked about it last week

619
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 4: or two weeks ago, a little bit like I just

620
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:06,680
Speaker 4: can't really see how these players are going to continually

621
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:09,240
Speaker 4: get up for these matches, knowing what's to come that

622
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 4: they are probably going to be shipped out at the

623
00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:14,639
Speaker 4: first opportunity in January or at least in the summer.

624
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:17,440
Speaker 4: So that's quite the opposite with this Brentford team. This

625
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:20,000
Speaker 4: is a Galvin iiced team. They are playing as a team,

626
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:22,440
Speaker 4: they love their manager, they play a fun brand of football. Yeah,

627
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 4: they've been dealing with some injuries, but their offense has

628
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 4: been good. They're especially for a team coming out of

629
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:29,639
Speaker 4: the Championship top ten in all the underlying metrics we

630
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:32,560
Speaker 4: would like to look at non penalty expected goals, big chances,

631
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:35,920
Speaker 4: shots for ninety and the Newcastle defense is abysmal. Eddie

632
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:38,440
Speaker 4: Howe is in town and he's not what you would

633
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 4: call a defensive whiz. So I don't really see any

634
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:45,920
Speaker 4: improvement coming through the managerial change. So give me Brentford

635
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 4: at a good number. I think plus one seventy five,

636
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 4: probably a little bit of a Bilow spot with the

637
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 4: way they've been playing. They're a better team. I know

638
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 4: they're on the road, but this Newcastle team is such

639
00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:58,119
Speaker 4: a mess that when the numbers, the numbers are this

640
00:27:58,200 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 4: good to go against them. I'm going to do it

641
00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 4: every time. Anthony, are you joining me on the bees?

642
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:03,919
Speaker 4: Up the bees?

643
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:04,719
Speaker 2: Baby? Uh?

644
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,159
Speaker 4: This is our bees?

645
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:07,639
Speaker 2: Uh.

646
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 3: Look I faded him a couple of times. I feel

647
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 3: like I got a little lucky, uh fading them against Norwich.

648
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:15,119
Speaker 3: I mean they did concede a goal, so that was

649
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,239
Speaker 3: kind of they deserve to concede a goal. He gave

650
00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 3: him two in the end. But betting against them a

651
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:21,720
Speaker 3: couple of times, like I mentioned, a little lucky. But

652
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:24,200
Speaker 3: here's a time where I'm looking at their performances and

653
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 3: I'm waiting for the big drop off and it just

654
00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:29,199
Speaker 3: isn't coming. Brentford's defense has regressed a little bit. They

655
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 3: had that terrible performance against Burnley. They've had some injuries,

656
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 3: David Raya going out, hurting goalkeeping situation, but the attack

657
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 3: is still there. Thomas Frank gave a great interview in

658
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 3: his post match against Norwich. We talked about how they

659
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:41,719
Speaker 3: were creating a bunch of expected goals and that's all

660
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 3: you can do. And sometimes in football, the chances just

661
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 3: don't you know, you don't finish them that day, and

662
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 3: that's what happened. I don't really read too much into

663
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 3: the loss to Norwich. It's obviously a bad loss, but

664
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 3: it's not the end of the world. I'm not sure

665
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 3: what to make of the Eddie how Higher either. His

666
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 3: teams at Bournemuth were never good defensively. They played a

667
00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:58,560
Speaker 3: lot of you know, we're going to try to pass

668
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:00,840
Speaker 3: through you and we're gonna make a ton of mistakes

669
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 3: with our guys who are very mediocre ball players, and

670
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 3: we're going to give up a ton of high quality chances.

671
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 3: So I'm not really sure that he has the personnel

672
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 3: to play that he wants to. Here is coming into

673
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 3: a team in the middle of the season, like Michael said,

674
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 3: unclear of their futures at the club. Callum Wilson and

675
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 3: Allen Ja Maxim will be fine.

676
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:15,960
Speaker 1: They're great.

677
00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 3: Wilson played under Howard Bournemouth. Brentford's defense still has some

678
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 3: regression coming. I think, like I think they'll probably concede here.

679
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 3: But again, if we're looking at who's more likely to

680
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:27,720
Speaker 3: win this, my numbers make Brenford minus one twenty on

681
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:29,520
Speaker 3: the drawing to bet line, So I'm fine taking minus

682
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:33,720
Speaker 3: one ten away from home here Brentford bounce back spot.

683
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 1: We're on them.

684
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 3: I think we're all on them, right Bjay.

685
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, definitely.

686
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:40,560
Speaker 2: Like you mentioned with Eddie Howe, like those bar in

687
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 2: the teams, they like to play a lot very open

688
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:44,479
Speaker 2: and they obviously, like you said, they give a ton

689
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 2: of high quality chances. Well, how's that going to work

690
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 2: at Newcastle right now? With how bad their defense is

691
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 2: so Newcastle this season they've spent four hundred minutes in

692
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 2: a five to three to two, which is a very

693
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:56,200
Speaker 2: defensive formation, and when they're playing out of that formation,

694
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 2: they're allowing two point three nine expectables per ninety minutes.

695
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 2: So that's how bad their defense is. They're playing such

696
00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 2: a defensive formation and they're still allowing all these So

697
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:06,080
Speaker 2: how are they going to play open with Eddie Howe.

698
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:08,120
Speaker 2: It just doesn't make any sense to me. Like you

699
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:10,560
Speaker 2: mentioned Brentford, you know their top six and pretty much

700
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:13,479
Speaker 2: every single defensive metrics. I don't really know how Newcastle

701
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 2: is going to create a lot of high quality chances here.

702
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 2: The biggest thing is Newcastle is terrible against pressure nineteenth

703
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 2: and pressure success right allowed and dead last and offensive

704
00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 2: passes per defensive action, which is horrible against the Brentford

705
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 2: team that loves to press high and win the ball

706
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 2: up high. They have the seventh highest pressing rate in

707
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 2: their first and ball recoveries. So, like you mentioned, I

708
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 2: have Brentford projected as a slight favorite, so I also

709
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 2: love them on the Drawno bet line the minus one ten.

710
00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's funny that they went from Unaiamori like they

711
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:41,360
Speaker 4: tried to get him in town. He's a guy who

712
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:44,480
Speaker 4: loves to set up teams well structured defensively, and then

713
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 4: they go with Eddie Howe who has quite the opposite,

714
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 4: which just goes to show you and kind of exituates

715
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:51,280
Speaker 4: the point that I was making that this team is

716
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:53,120
Speaker 4: right now a mess and I don't think anybody really

717
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 4: knows what direction they're going in other than towards the

718
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 4: Middle East, and their moral compass is going way south. Sunday,

719
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 4: let's move on Manchester City, speaking of middle teams owned

720
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 4: by clubs in the Middle East. They are minus six

721
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:09,680
Speaker 4: point fifty at home against my beloved and depressing Everdon

722
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 4: fifteen to one. On the money line, the draw is

723
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 4: seven and a half to one. This is a Sunday

724
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 4: nine am kickoff. The one thing I will say for

725
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:20,800
Speaker 4: Everton is that they have been able to create chances

726
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:24,959
Speaker 4: and their offensive numbers aren't too bad under Rafa Benitez. Unfortunately,

727
00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 4: not having Dominic camrat Lewin in the lineup kind of

728
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 4: negates that situation a little bit, and they are going

729
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 4: up against perhaps one of the best defensive teams in Europe.

730
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 4: This is a spot where I'm an Everdon fan, So

731
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,160
Speaker 4: this is a grain of salt, like a small, very small, small,

732
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 4: small bet for fun bet, because I don't see any

733
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 4: value on this game, but I'll probably just back Everton

734
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 4: on fifteen to one Palace cash at twenty to one

735
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:47,480
Speaker 4: against man City on the road, So hell, why not

736
00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 4: everdon because they're terrible That's why bj Where do you

737
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:53,960
Speaker 4: see this one? Obviously don't think you're going to be

738
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 4: laying the minus six fifty here with City, but do

739
00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 4: you see any value elsewhere?

740
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 2: No, this is way too high and it's deprived because

741
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:02,720
Speaker 2: you know, like City, you can't find a lot of

742
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 2: negatives with them right now. You know, I think a

743
00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 2: round a plus seventeen non penalty expected goldfrontials so far

744
00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 2: this season they're first, and every single defensive metric their second,

745
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 2: and every single offensive metric behind Liverpool. Like I just

746
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 2: can't really find anything that's you know, negative about Manchester City.

747
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:21,440
Speaker 2: But with that being said, this is this is too high,

748
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:23,840
Speaker 2: you know, like you mentioned, Everton has been creating chances

749
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 2: without Dominque Calvert Lenin the eight matches, they're averaging one

750
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:29,320
Speaker 2: point four expected goals without him. There's still eighth and

751
00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:31,840
Speaker 2: shots for ninety second and crosses completely the eighteen yard

752
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:34,960
Speaker 2: box in eighth and box entry. So it's not a horrible,

753
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 2: horrible offense that you know is not gonna be able

754
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 2: to create anything against City, And you know, Everton Obviously,

755
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 2: like you mentioned, they've been really bad defensively, specifically allowing

756
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 2: big scoring chances, which is a nightmare going up against

757
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 2: Manchester City. But Urimina is looks like he's going to

758
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 2: be back, which is a big boost for them because

759
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 2: Everton has had to play either Ben Godfried or Mason

760
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 2: Holgate in the center back pairing with Michael Keane, which

761
00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 2: just doesn't work because those two guys are naturally wing backs.

762
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 2: So have your Eminia alongside Michael keenan the four four

763
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:03,880
Speaker 2: two is going to be good. Also, Andre Gomez will

764
00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 2: be back playing alongside Allen in the midfield, so there'll

765
00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 2: be a little more defensive structure from Everton's Hopefully some

766
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 2: of those defensive issues will kind of get sorted out.

767
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 1: But this is just too high. I only have Manchester

768
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:14,600
Speaker 1: City protected at minus two eighty five.

769
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 2: Look at info goal, they only have City at seventy

770
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 2: one percent, so you know minus six fifty is close

771
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 2: to like eighty two eighty three percent. So I'll take

772
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:25,720
Speaker 2: a shot and take Everton plus two at plus one ten.

773
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 1: It's too high.

774
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 4: It just is too high. It's just not gonna be fun.

775
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:33,960
Speaker 4: Just like another thing too this Everton team like not

776
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 4: only is calvit Lewin being at like du Coore not

777
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:39,479
Speaker 4: playing too like that's just completely thrown off their midfield

778
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 4: and I think actually Andre Gomes, who's not been terribly

779
00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 4: good over the past year, actually it feels a really

780
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:48,920
Speaker 4: gaping need for this team. So fifteen to one plus two,

781
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 4: however you want to bet, I really do think it's

782
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:54,160
Speaker 4: the Topees or nothing at this number. The team that

783
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:56,480
Speaker 4: Everdon played the last time they were out Neil Neildre

784
00:33:56,640 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 4: against Spurs. Spurs under Antonio Conte are minus one forty

785
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 4: home favorites against Leeds United, plus three fifty on the road,

786
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 4: the draws plus three ten. This is Sunday, the eleven

787
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:09,880
Speaker 4: thirty m kickoff. It's the last match on the docket

788
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:11,880
Speaker 4: for the Premier League. I don't have anything on this

789
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 4: game right now, but I do. We'll say, if you

790
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:15,480
Speaker 4: are going to bet Spurs, I would do what you

791
00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 4: should always do against Leeds and take a look at

792
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:20,520
Speaker 4: the alternative spread whatever you want to call them, because

793
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 4: if you beat Leeds, it's likely you're going to beat

794
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:23,879
Speaker 4: them by two or three goals with the way their

795
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:27,360
Speaker 4: defense plays, even with Antonio Conte not really getting this

796
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 4: team up the speed yet on his system with Son

797
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:32,279
Speaker 4: and looks like Harry Kane is maybe back and forth

798
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:35,640
Speaker 4: because he just ran rampant over a couple powerhouses in

799
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 4: Europe like San Marino and Moldova. I think he had

800
00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:40,800
Speaker 4: hat tricks in both those games. Maybe he's back. I

801
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 4: think that's the only way I would bet it. Anthony,

802
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 4: you're the Spurs fan on this podcast, so I'm gonna

803
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 4: go to bj first and see what he has to

804
00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:48,839
Speaker 4: say for this match.

805
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, Todham wasn't impressive at all against Everton. They actually

806
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 2: looked pretty bad under Antonio Conte. Only point eighty five

807
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,400
Speaker 2: expectacles created in a zero zero draw. They didn't have

808
00:34:57,400 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 2: a shot on target and they only had twelve touches

809
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 2: and Everyton's penalty are you know? Conte did play out

810
00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 2: of a three four two one instead of his usual

811
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:05,720
Speaker 2: three to five two, which are pretty similar to the system,

812
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:08,280
Speaker 2: so we'll see if that continues. He didn't play Tangay

813
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 2: and double A and didn't start him, so we'll see

814
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:11,480
Speaker 2: if he comes into the midfield. And listen, I know

815
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:13,919
Speaker 2: there's a new manager at Tottenham and they're eventually they're

816
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 2: going to improve, but as it stands right now, this

817
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:19,480
Speaker 2: team is really really bad. They are only creating point

818
00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 2: nine to seven non penalty expecta goles for match. That's

819
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 2: sixteenth in the Premier League. Despite having what some people

820
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 2: would call maybe the greatest striker on the planet, even

821
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 2: though he only has one goal in ten appearances in

822
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 2: a point two to three expect a goal per.

823
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:31,000
Speaker 1: Nine even at scoring rate.

824
00:35:31,080 --> 00:35:33,400
Speaker 2: But whatever, he scores four goals against San Reno and

825
00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:35,879
Speaker 2: three goals against Mura in the fake Europa Conference League

826
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 2: and suddenly he's the best striker in the world.

827
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:39,920
Speaker 1: Cool and listen with Tottenham right now.

828
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:43,320
Speaker 2: Obviously you know the new manager boost is big, but

829
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 2: going from a substitute teacher in Nunospiro Santo to a

830
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 2: drill sergeant in Antonio Conte is a massive switch in

831
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 2: the mindset of what Tottenham is and it takes time

832
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:57,920
Speaker 2: for him to implement his system. And he's doing oh

833
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 2: if you saw this, but he's removed all the condoms

834
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:02,839
Speaker 2: and told the cooks at the cafeteria to stop cooking

835
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:05,239
Speaker 2: with butter and oil. Like I don't know if I'm

836
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 2: a player, I'm like dang, I kind of like having

837
00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:08,919
Speaker 2: Mayo on my Sandwich, you know, and now I can't

838
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:09,160
Speaker 2: have that.

839
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:09,760
Speaker 1: That sucks.

840
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 2: You know, eventually they'll be there. Eventually they'll be the

841
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:13,680
Speaker 2: fittest team in the Premier League and they'll be running

842
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:16,120
Speaker 2: rampant and they'll be great. But as it stands right today,

843
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:18,759
Speaker 2: Totdam is a bottom half of the table side in

844
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:21,040
Speaker 2: the Premier League and I think this leads team is

845
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 2: actually starting to kind of turn a corner. They outplayed

846
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:28,400
Speaker 2: Wolves and Leicester, which I thought were both very impressive performances.

847
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 2: Marcello Bielsa's side defensively, you know, they're still sixteenth and

848
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:34,200
Speaker 2: non penalty expectacles allowed, but they're only eighth in big

849
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:36,520
Speaker 2: scoring chances allowed, fifth and box entries a loud and

850
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:38,560
Speaker 2: second and crosses complete in their own eighteen yard box,

851
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 2: so they're basically just allowing a high volume of low

852
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:43,960
Speaker 2: quality chances. And also, you know, Calvin Phillips was out

853
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:45,680
Speaker 2: for a few matches. Heason back for the last two,

854
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:48,320
Speaker 2: which provides more stability in their midfield and leads his

855
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 2: press should be able to be effective against Tottenham because

856
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:53,719
Speaker 2: Todam hasn't been great against the pressure pressure this season.

857
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:55,959
Speaker 2: Leads his first and passes for defensive action and second

858
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,960
Speaker 2: and pressure success rate well Totten's thirteenth against the press.

859
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:02,040
Speaker 2: So as it stands, tott Ham is way overvalued in

860
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:04,440
Speaker 2: this spot. You look at any other projection model, nobody

861
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 2: hasn't even close to minus one forty, which don fifty

862
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:09,920
Speaker 2: eight percent. I only have Tottenham at plus one fourteen,

863
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:12,000
Speaker 2: So I love Leeds plus half of ball at plus

864
00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 2: one twenty and they might actually be my favorite underdog

865
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:14,919
Speaker 2: this week.

866
00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 4: These two managers obsessive about soccer as you can get,

867
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 4: so this is going to be an interesting hug or

868
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:23,799
Speaker 4: handshake at the end of the match. Seventy three percent

869
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:27,399
Speaker 4: of Leads matches have featured both teams, scoring only twenty

870
00:37:27,520 --> 00:37:30,840
Speaker 4: seven percent for Spurs, so it is an interesting matchup

871
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:33,480
Speaker 4: in terms of cocaine ball that Leeds United plays and

872
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:36,360
Speaker 4: the lumbering style football that Spurs has played this season. Anthony,

873
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:38,279
Speaker 4: I don't think you have anything on this game from

874
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:40,040
Speaker 4: what we discussed pre much, but I will let you

875
00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:41,960
Speaker 4: get in thirty seconds on Cottenham.

876
00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:44,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, Christian Romero picked up a knock against Brazil in

877
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:47,359
Speaker 3: the World Up qualifying match they played the other day.

878
00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:49,759
Speaker 3: He is questionable. I'm not sure they have enough center

879
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:52,280
Speaker 3: backs that are any good if he's out. So playing

880
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 3: the three five to two with Ben Davis, Eric Dyer

881
00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:56,719
Speaker 3: and Romero is fine. But when you take out Romero

882
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:58,759
Speaker 3: and all of a sudden it's david Son Sanchez all

883
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 3: of a sudden. I have your question marks about the

884
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:04,000
Speaker 3: defending ability Leeds press them off the pitch in the

885
00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:05,560
Speaker 3: spring when they play. At the end of the season,

886
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:08,080
Speaker 3: Spurs were not nearly fit enough. The fitness levels have

887
00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:10,799
Speaker 3: improved marginally under a Spirito Santo and I expect them

888
00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:12,919
Speaker 3: to get even better with Conte, but they still don't

889
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:15,319
Speaker 3: deal with pressure well. Keeps me off this. It's going

890
00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:17,799
Speaker 3: to take County some time. And you know the new

891
00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:19,919
Speaker 3: manager bump is priced into the market at this point.

892
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:23,360
Speaker 3: Almost successively we saw Tottenham close like plus one twenty

893
00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:26,879
Speaker 3: against Everton that got very steamed with the new manager thing.

894
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 3: They're just not good at turning final third possession into shots.

895
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 3: Right now, I'm going to see what the lineup looks

896
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:33,320
Speaker 3: like on Sunday morning and then make a decision on

897
00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:35,600
Speaker 3: this one. Follow me in the app right now, no play.

898
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 3: You know, I think there's going to be an improvement eventually,

899
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 3: but he's got to play the right guys, figure out

900
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:40,719
Speaker 3: what system he wants to do.

901
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:44,440
Speaker 4: All right, let's hop over the channel and into Europe proper.

902
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:47,920
Speaker 4: We'll starting the Bundesliga with our favorite bets there, Anthony,

903
00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 4: what are you looking at here in Germany's top flight? Yeah?

904
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 3: I was back and forth on a couple of games,

905
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:55,400
Speaker 3: but I'm going with Minds plus one fifteen. I know

906
00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:57,239
Speaker 3: BJ likes it too. I got it in my prep

907
00:38:57,320 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 3: in before he did this week for the first time

908
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:00,480
Speaker 3: I think ever, so I was able to take that one.

909
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 3: The reality is Colne's a little overrated here. Anthony Madest

910
00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:05,359
Speaker 3: is having an unreal year. He's got the third most

911
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:08,040
Speaker 3: goals in the Bundesliga. He's got eight for Colm, but

912
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:10,359
Speaker 3: I'm not expecting all of a sudden him to become

913
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 3: the third best striker in the Bundesliga. I think he's

914
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:15,320
Speaker 3: gonna cool off quite a bit here. He's really carrying

915
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:18,160
Speaker 3: what's been an otherwise mediocre Coln attack. They've been much

916
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:19,920
Speaker 3: better at home they've been on the road this year.

917
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:22,480
Speaker 3: They've also been a little bit fortunate, you know. They've

918
00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:24,760
Speaker 3: had a lot to come from behind wins, which tends

919
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:27,600
Speaker 3: to be a little dubious, and so when they've played

920
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:31,160
Speaker 3: upper half or better teams, they've really struggled. I seem

921
00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 3: to recall a five nail drubbing at Hoffenheim, and I

922
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:35,840
Speaker 3: think this is a similar spot here. Mine's under spens

923
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:38,080
Speaker 3: and have played really solid. They're one of the better

924
00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:40,400
Speaker 3: teams in the Bundesliga a fifth and expected goal difference

925
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:43,399
Speaker 3: looked a little shaky against Gladbach last time out. Don't

926
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:45,279
Speaker 3: think they're gonna end up finishing fifth, but I think

927
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:46,839
Speaker 3: they're a much better team than Coln and I'm getting

928
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:49,040
Speaker 3: them at plus one fifteen at home my projection minus

929
00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 3: one thirty two, so I'm surprised they're plus money here.

930
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:54,879
Speaker 4: I like Mines, if not Mines than who BJ.

931
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:56,280
Speaker 1: I also love Mines.

932
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:58,560
Speaker 2: But I'm gonna go to the Augsburg Bayern Munich match

933
00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:01,239
Speaker 2: on Friday, and I think most will know where I'm

934
00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:02,840
Speaker 2: going with this, but I'm actually going to flip it

935
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:04,759
Speaker 2: on you for the first time and I can't.

936
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:06,840
Speaker 1: It must be been like two and a half years.

937
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 2: I actually have some value on Bayern Munich and I

938
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:12,160
Speaker 2: feel like I'm living in a dream right now because

939
00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:15,080
Speaker 2: I have their spread projected at minus two point three seven,

940
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:17,640
Speaker 2: and honestly like Byron's numbers are out of this world

941
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:20,759
Speaker 2: right now, they're averaging three point three seven expected goals

942
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:22,560
Speaker 2: for match. Let me say that again, three point three

943
00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 2: seven expected goals to match to their first eleven matches,

944
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 2: and I'll be honest, I don't think I've ever seen

945
00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:29,680
Speaker 2: an expected goal average that high this deep end of

946
00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:33,279
Speaker 2: the season. So you know, Byron's obviously number one and

947
00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:35,840
Speaker 2: ever single offensive metric in the Bundesliga, and they're going

948
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:38,320
Speaker 2: up against one of the worst teams in Germany, so

949
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:41,080
Speaker 2: this one could get really really ugly. Augsburg is allowing

950
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 2: one point eight nine non penalty expected goals for match.

951
00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:46,920
Speaker 2: That's seventeenth in the Bundesliga. They're also sixteenth in shots

952
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 2: a loud for ninety and they allowed over three expected

953
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:51,479
Speaker 2: goals to Dortmund Minz in Freiburg this season.

954
00:40:51,520 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 1: So what's bier Munich going to do.

955
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:54,839
Speaker 2: They're just going to absolutely thrash them, and Byron Munix

956
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:56,759
Speaker 2: obviously a team that does not take their foot off

957
00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:59,439
Speaker 2: the gas defensively. Byron Muiks actually improved a lot under

958
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:02,920
Speaker 2: nigels Men, their center back beering up Bumcano and Soule

959
00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:05,560
Speaker 2: They've only allowed eight point ninety eight expected goals through

960
00:41:05,560 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 2: eleven matches, which is actually an improvement from last season

961
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:10,880
Speaker 2: when they allowed one point one four expected goals for match. Honestly,

962
00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 2: I think they're just the best team in the world

963
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:14,360
Speaker 2: right now. They've showed it time and time again. Nobody

964
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:17,279
Speaker 2: has even come close to them. So I'm tired of

965
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 2: betting against Byron Munich. So I'm going to bet on

966
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:22,759
Speaker 2: them for the first time this season and take their

967
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:24,719
Speaker 2: spread of minus two and a half at plus one twenty.

968
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:27,080
Speaker 4: If you can't beat them, join them, says P J.

969
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:29,800
Speaker 4: Cunningham as he goes to the dark side of Bayern

970
00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:32,760
Speaker 4: Munich and a word for Alfonso Davies and the Canadian

971
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:34,840
Speaker 4: national team in that game against Mexico in the in

972
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:38,399
Speaker 4: the snow and Edmonton, that was hilarious, Uh snow over

973
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 4: How everybody in the world didn't just put every bit

974
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:44,520
Speaker 4: of their their mortgage and their company's assets on Canada.

975
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 4: That is, besides me. My favorite bet in the Bundesliga.

976
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:49,760
Speaker 4: I like Bocum six and a half to one against

977
00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:53,280
Speaker 4: Leverkusen nine thirty in the morning on Saturday. Expected points

978
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:58,319
Speaker 4: Leverkusen point fourteen point eight nine Bocum fourteen point six.

979
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:01,040
Speaker 4: So in terms of their play the season not that

980
00:42:01,239 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 4: far off. And let's look at their current form. Leverracusa

981
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:07,320
Speaker 4: comes in two and two Bocum three and one, and

982
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:10,440
Speaker 4: their only losses was to Cloud Box, so they're in

983
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:13,320
Speaker 4: a pretty good form here. The underlying numbers are basically

984
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:15,360
Speaker 4: bang on. So give me the team at six and

985
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 4: a half to one if that's the case, even if

986
00:42:17,520 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 4: they are on the road and have less talent. Let's

987
00:42:20,680 --> 00:42:23,879
Speaker 4: move to Syria A. I'll start. I like Napoli plus

988
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:26,040
Speaker 4: two twenty in the game of the weekend in Italy.

989
00:42:26,360 --> 00:42:29,279
Speaker 4: They're taking on Inter on twelve pm on Sunday. Inter

990
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:32,120
Speaker 4: has been really good against teams in the bottom half

991
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:34,279
Speaker 4: of the when they're playing competition that's kind of on

992
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:37,160
Speaker 4: their level, or perhaps maybe a little bit better or

993
00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:39,280
Speaker 4: a little bit worse. It's they're struggling. They have draws

994
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:43,000
Speaker 4: against Juventus, Adelanta, ac Milan and they lost to Lazzio.

995
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:46,279
Speaker 4: They're beating up on everybody else and Napoli's numbers they're

996
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:49,439
Speaker 4: really good, especially defensively. They deserve to be in first

997
00:42:49,480 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 4: place in Syria on that's where they are plus two

998
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:55,240
Speaker 4: twenty on the road. I'll take a shot on Napoli, Anthony.

999
00:42:55,320 --> 00:42:56,880
Speaker 4: What's your favorite bet at Italy this weekend?

1000
00:42:57,200 --> 00:42:59,480
Speaker 3: The ultimate pain bet in all of Italy for the

1001
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:02,440
Speaker 3: last couple years has been trying to catch Atalanta in

1002
00:43:02,560 --> 00:43:04,680
Speaker 3: a spot where you can bet an under on them,

1003
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:08,640
Speaker 3: and I think I've got one against Spetsia on Saturday morning.

1004
00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:11,279
Speaker 3: The reality here for Atalanta, a lot of their main

1005
00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:14,120
Speaker 3: strikers are older, and a lot of their main strikers

1006
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:19,280
Speaker 3: played significant minutes in World Cup qualifying, be It Ilichic

1007
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:23,680
Speaker 3: playing in Europe or be It Zapata playing for Columbia.

1008
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:27,680
Speaker 3: Mariel has been in and out of the lineup with injuries. Specia.

1009
00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:31,320
Speaker 3: There's nothing to like about them whatsoever. But my projection

1010
00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:34,960
Speaker 3: has this game at three point one expected goals, so

1011
00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:37,520
Speaker 3: I'm okay taking three and a half under. The reality

1012
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 3: is Adalanta's attack is starting to show some cracks, some

1013
00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:45,080
Speaker 3: aging signs. They're only fifth and expected goals, whereas the

1014
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:47,799
Speaker 3: last four years they were number one or number two

1015
00:43:47,880 --> 00:43:49,960
Speaker 3: every single year, so there's been a little bit of

1016
00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:54,400
Speaker 3: a slippage, and the defense has been solid overall, they

1017
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:58,040
Speaker 3: haven't been quite as leaky as years pass so I

1018
00:43:58,120 --> 00:44:00,600
Speaker 3: think this is a game. Hopefully don't get an early

1019
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:04,120
Speaker 3: Spetzia goal that turns this game into chaos. But under

1020
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 3: three and a half is where I'm looking. I think

1021
00:44:05,680 --> 00:44:07,680
Speaker 3: it's a good spot just off the break to get

1022
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:08,760
Speaker 3: an Atlanta.

1023
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:12,280
Speaker 4: Under in BJ your favorite bet in Syria this weekend?

1024
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:15,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like Juventus plus one forty on the road

1025
00:44:15,680 --> 00:44:17,880
Speaker 2: at Lazio. Events is starting to turn a corner. They

1026
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:21,000
Speaker 2: got a much deserved late winner against Fiorentina right for

1027
00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 2: the international break. They have a plus five point eight

1028
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:25,960
Speaker 2: non penalty expected goal differential through twelve matches, but they're

1029
00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:29,439
Speaker 2: currently sitting in the eighth place. Meanwhile, Lazio has about

1030
00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:32,560
Speaker 2: an even non penalty expected gold differential, but yet again

1031
00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:34,800
Speaker 2: somehow is in fifth place because they did the exact

1032
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:37,640
Speaker 2: same thing last season. Eventus will have big advantages offensively

1033
00:44:37,680 --> 00:44:39,960
Speaker 2: against the Loasio defense that has just been absolutely torched

1034
00:44:40,000 --> 00:44:41,760
Speaker 2: every single time they have to play a decent opponent.

1035
00:44:41,840 --> 00:44:45,160
Speaker 2: Against AC Milan Roma and enter this season, Lazio allowed

1036
00:44:45,200 --> 00:44:47,480
Speaker 2: at a combined eight point twenty seven expected goals in

1037
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:50,319
Speaker 2: those three matches. Uventus is fourth and expected goals they've

1038
00:44:50,360 --> 00:44:52,319
Speaker 2: created twenty so far of the season, but have only

1039
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 2: scored sixteen actual goals, so they'll have some positive regression. Offensively,

1040
00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:58,759
Speaker 2: Juventus is also second in big scoring chances, fifth and

1041
00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:01,440
Speaker 2: crosses completed to the eight yard box, while Lotzio is

1042
00:45:01,440 --> 00:45:03,839
Speaker 2: allowing the third most process into their own eighteen yard box.

1043
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:06,160
Speaker 2: Losio also one of the worst pressing teams in Italy,

1044
00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:08,880
Speaker 2: so Uventus should be able to move the ball and

1045
00:45:08,960 --> 00:45:10,719
Speaker 2: get forward and connect some passes and get it up

1046
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:13,319
Speaker 2: to our favorite striker Alvaro Maratza to put one away.

1047
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:16,920
Speaker 2: Uventus defensively has been solid. Their fourth inexpectable is allowed

1048
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:20,040
Speaker 2: fifth and big scoring chances allowed, while Loatzio offensively is

1049
00:45:20,080 --> 00:45:22,920
Speaker 2: basically just entirely built off creating big scoring chances with

1050
00:45:22,960 --> 00:45:24,960
Speaker 2: a mobile a their fourth and big scoring chances, but

1051
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:27,839
Speaker 2: fourteenth in shots per ninety. I have Juventus projected at

1052
00:45:27,880 --> 00:45:30,200
Speaker 2: plus one twenty five, so I think there's some value

1053
00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:31,200
Speaker 2: on them at plus one forty.

1054
00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:35,160
Speaker 4: And now we will shift to Spain La Liga. I'll

1055
00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:39,760
Speaker 4: start with the Friday afternoon kickoff three pm. My best boys,

1056
00:45:40,239 --> 00:45:43,759
Speaker 4: my wonderful, wonderful athletic club bill Bao there plus one

1057
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:47,560
Speaker 4: twenty five against Levante. I like bill Bio not to draw,

1058
00:45:47,680 --> 00:45:50,800
Speaker 4: but to actually win this one. They are an incredible

1059
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:55,200
Speaker 4: defensive team. Levante's offensive numbers do not strike fear in anybody,

1060
00:45:55,800 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 4: and bill Bio is pretty good offensively too. They are

1061
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 4: top six in big chances created and non penalty expected goals,

1062
00:46:02,560 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 4: though Vante defense in a league that everybody has a

1063
00:46:05,719 --> 00:46:08,960
Speaker 4: pretty good defense is pretty mediocre. So I like the

1064
00:46:09,080 --> 00:46:11,160
Speaker 4: number here plus one twenty five at home in the

1065
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:14,680
Speaker 4: Basque Country for Bilbao, Anthony, Do you have a play

1066
00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:16,120
Speaker 4: in Spain for us this weekend?

1067
00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:19,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, Osasuna plus one point twenty five against Atletico Madrid.

1068
00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:22,040
Speaker 3: I have been fitting Atletico and getting really lucky that

1069
00:46:22,120 --> 00:46:24,839
Speaker 3: they haven't been getting really lucky because you just bank

1070
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:28,440
Speaker 3: on Atletico finding some weird goal late to screw you.

1071
00:46:29,000 --> 00:46:30,400
Speaker 3: That's just pretty much how it happens when you bet

1072
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:32,200
Speaker 3: at Lati like you have the factor in that they're

1073
00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:33,720
Speaker 3: going to score a goal in the last five minutes,

1074
00:46:33,880 --> 00:46:37,399
Speaker 3: but they haven't been, and I really have doubts about

1075
00:46:37,400 --> 00:46:40,239
Speaker 3: how good they really are. Still running way hot in

1076
00:46:40,320 --> 00:46:44,440
Speaker 3: front of goal offensively, regressing defensively not quite keeping out

1077
00:46:44,480 --> 00:46:48,680
Speaker 3: the goals despite absurd chances allowed, so they're running about

1078
00:46:48,719 --> 00:46:51,400
Speaker 3: normal defensively. But this Sooner team, it's really more of

1079
00:46:51,440 --> 00:46:53,520
Speaker 3: a buy on them. I think their defense is is

1080
00:46:53,600 --> 00:46:56,800
Speaker 3: really underrated across the board. Held Real Madrid out for

1081
00:46:57,000 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 3: ninety minutes at Burnabout and it really wasn't close to

1082
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:02,919
Speaker 3: score for real. They disrupted their patterns really well. Thought

1083
00:47:02,960 --> 00:47:05,480
Speaker 3: it was an impressive performance. Then just don't think ed

1084
00:47:05,560 --> 00:47:07,480
Speaker 3: Letti can get margin the way they're playing right now.

1085
00:47:07,800 --> 00:47:11,040
Speaker 3: Osuno steals a goal, may lose to one at worst,

1086
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:12,920
Speaker 3: but I think this is a good number here on

1087
00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:14,440
Speaker 3: Osasun and what I think is going to be a

1088
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:16,759
Speaker 3: low scoring game where they make it very difficult Fred

1089
00:47:16,840 --> 00:47:19,080
Speaker 3: Letty to score and get margin to cover the one

1090
00:47:19,120 --> 00:47:20,680
Speaker 3: point twenty five and BJ.

1091
00:47:20,640 --> 00:47:21,800
Speaker 4: Bring us home in Spain.

1092
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:24,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is the worst match of the entire weekend

1093
00:47:24,200 --> 00:47:29,359
Speaker 2: across any match in Europe. Gatafe versus Cadiz Sunday morning

1094
00:47:29,400 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 2: at seven am. Don't wake up for this one. Don't

1095
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:32,120
Speaker 2: set your alarm for this one.

1096
00:47:32,400 --> 00:47:32,560
Speaker 1: You know.

1097
00:47:32,600 --> 00:47:35,040
Speaker 2: I don't really typically like betting these horrible matches, but

1098
00:47:35,360 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 2: this is a situation where this line makes absolutely no

1099
00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:42,200
Speaker 2: sense to me at all. Katafe is the worst offensive team,

1100
00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:44,600
Speaker 2: not just in Spain, in all of Europe. They play

1101
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:46,480
Speaker 2: out of a very defensive four to four to two formulation,

1102
00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:49,000
Speaker 2: and so far this season they have created six point

1103
00:47:49,040 --> 00:47:51,840
Speaker 2: seven to one non penalty expected goals in thirteen matches.

1104
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:53,880
Speaker 2: That's a point five to two average. And we are

1105
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:56,000
Speaker 2: six matches away from the halfway point in the season,

1106
00:47:56,120 --> 00:47:58,920
Speaker 2: so it's no surprise that they're dead last and big

1107
00:47:59,000 --> 00:48:01,239
Speaker 2: scoring chances in back centuries, but they're also the worst

1108
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:04,360
Speaker 2: team against pressure in La Liga and they're also seventeenth

1109
00:48:04,360 --> 00:48:07,040
Speaker 2: in ball recoveries allowed. Well, Kadiz defensively they haven't been

1110
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:09,279
Speaker 2: great by expected goals, but their third and passes for

1111
00:48:09,400 --> 00:48:11,200
Speaker 2: defensive action and fourth in ball recovery. So I have

1112
00:48:11,239 --> 00:48:13,279
Speaker 2: a hard time seeing how Gatafe is going to string

1113
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:15,399
Speaker 2: a bunch of passes together and actually move the ball

1114
00:48:15,480 --> 00:48:16,960
Speaker 2: and get it forward. And usually when you you know,

1115
00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:18,960
Speaker 2: especially in Spain, when you have these teams that play

1116
00:48:18,960 --> 00:48:21,440
Speaker 2: the four four two very defensive formations, a lot of

1117
00:48:21,480 --> 00:48:24,640
Speaker 2: their goals you know, thinking Burnley come off of set pieces.

1118
00:48:25,080 --> 00:48:27,960
Speaker 2: Katafe this season has had forty five set pieces and

1119
00:48:28,040 --> 00:48:31,000
Speaker 2: they have created two point three to seven total expected goals.

1120
00:48:31,040 --> 00:48:33,560
Speaker 2: That's a point zero five per set piece expect a

1121
00:48:33,600 --> 00:48:36,359
Speaker 2: goal average. That's the worst in La Liga. Cadiz isn't

1122
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:38,279
Speaker 2: a great offensive team, you know, they're bottom five and

1123
00:48:38,320 --> 00:48:39,880
Speaker 2: pretty much every single metric if you look at but

1124
00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:42,520
Speaker 2: Katafe they're one of the worst defensive teams in Spain

1125
00:48:42,560 --> 00:48:44,920
Speaker 2: as well so and that's why they have a negative

1126
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:47,799
Speaker 2: eleven point three to four expect a goal differential through

1127
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:50,839
Speaker 2: thirteen matches. But somehow, through all of that they are

1128
00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:54,759
Speaker 2: even money favorites at home, which makes absolutely zero sense

1129
00:48:54,800 --> 00:48:58,000
Speaker 2: to me. I have Katafe projected at around plus one forty,

1130
00:48:58,120 --> 00:49:01,200
Speaker 2: so I love Kadis plus half at minus one fifteen.

1131
00:49:01,760 --> 00:49:03,800
Speaker 4: And now is the part of the show where Anthony

1132
00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:06,359
Speaker 4: and I dim the lights. We take out but get

1133
00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:10,040
Speaker 4: maybe a little bit of coffee, and let bej Dubuke,

1134
00:49:10,120 --> 00:49:14,680
Speaker 4: Iowa's foremost league expert, take us for his favorite bet

1135
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:15,880
Speaker 4: in France this weekend.

1136
00:49:16,239 --> 00:49:20,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's uh, let's fade them again. We're back Strasbourg

1137
00:49:20,880 --> 00:49:25,480
Speaker 2: versus dodd Reems Strasbourg even money at home. Strasbourg was

1138
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:27,640
Speaker 2: one of the most unlucky teams in league on last season.

1139
00:49:27,760 --> 00:49:30,240
Speaker 2: They sold both their starting center backs, but they've rebounded

1140
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:33,319
Speaker 2: really nicely. They've been very good offensively, one point five

1141
00:49:33,320 --> 00:49:35,239
Speaker 2: to two expected goals for match and are the number

1142
00:49:35,280 --> 00:49:38,000
Speaker 2: one team in League onun in big scoring chances, creating

1143
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:40,279
Speaker 2: twenty five so far of the season. Now, I will

1144
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:42,040
Speaker 2: say I'll give Reams some credit. They are a good

1145
00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:44,399
Speaker 2: defensive team. Their top seven and pretty much every single

1146
00:49:44,440 --> 00:49:47,359
Speaker 2: defensive metric except cross has completed in their own ten

1147
00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:49,640
Speaker 2: yard box. They've allowed the fifth most in League One

1148
00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:52,160
Speaker 2: and that's a problem in this matchup because Strasbourg that's

1149
00:49:52,200 --> 00:49:54,040
Speaker 2: how they create a lot of their chances. They played

1150
00:49:54,040 --> 00:49:55,680
Speaker 2: it a five free two, so what happens a lot

1151
00:49:55,800 --> 00:49:57,120
Speaker 2: is they like to get the ball out wide to

1152
00:49:57,440 --> 00:49:59,160
Speaker 2: let their wing backs go forward and cross it into

1153
00:49:59,160 --> 00:50:00,560
Speaker 2: the box, and that's how they create a lot of

1154
00:50:00,600 --> 00:50:02,800
Speaker 2: their big scoring chances. So it's a really bad matchup

1155
00:50:02,840 --> 00:50:05,880
Speaker 2: for Reims defensively, and Strasburg also has been an incredible

1156
00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:07,919
Speaker 2: form at home. In seven matches, they have a plus

1157
00:50:08,040 --> 00:50:10,720
Speaker 2: five point six to one non penalty expected gold differential

1158
00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 2: and Stodddreams once again is the worst offensive team in France.

1159
00:50:14,560 --> 00:50:17,839
Speaker 2: They're currently sitting in sixteenth place and they are dead

1160
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:19,839
Speaker 2: last in non penalty expected goals.

1161
00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:20,640
Speaker 1: They are also.

1162
00:50:20,440 --> 00:50:23,440
Speaker 2: Eighteenth and big scoring chances dead last, and crosses completed

1163
00:50:23,480 --> 00:50:25,400
Speaker 2: in the eighteen yard box. And the biggest problem in

1164
00:50:25,480 --> 00:50:27,279
Speaker 2: this one is they're one of the worst teams in

1165
00:50:27,360 --> 00:50:30,080
Speaker 2: League one against pressure dead last and offensive pass per

1166
00:50:30,160 --> 00:50:33,120
Speaker 2: defensive action and fifteenth and pressure success rate allowed. Strasbourg

1167
00:50:33,200 --> 00:50:35,760
Speaker 2: middle of the road pressing team. I have Strasbourg projected

1168
00:50:35,800 --> 00:50:37,480
Speaker 2: at minus one thirty three. If you look at five

1169
00:50:37,640 --> 00:50:40,239
Speaker 2: thirty eight, they have Strasburg fifty three percent. Info goal

1170
00:50:40,360 --> 00:50:42,400
Speaker 2: has them close to as I'm a fifty two percent.

1171
00:50:42,520 --> 00:50:46,640
Speaker 2: So I love Strasbourg plus one hundred fading Stodg dreams

1172
00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:47,120
Speaker 2: once again.

1173
00:50:47,520 --> 00:50:49,960
Speaker 4: All right, and now it's time to move to our

1174
00:50:50,080 --> 00:50:53,399
Speaker 4: favorite portion of the program. And as always I will

1175
00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:56,439
Speaker 4: warn you these bets are not for the faint of heart,

1176
00:50:56,800 --> 00:50:59,239
Speaker 4: our favorite underdogs of the weekend, and then we will

1177
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:02,440
Speaker 4: wrap them all together for a three leg parlay. I'll

1178
00:51:02,480 --> 00:51:05,920
Speaker 4: start Bokum six and a half to one against Leverkusen

1179
00:51:06,440 --> 00:51:09,920
Speaker 4: nine thirty am on Saturday morning in the Bundesliga. Like

1180
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:13,279
Speaker 4: I said, Leverkusen fourteen point eight nine expected points on

1181
00:51:13,320 --> 00:51:16,680
Speaker 4: the season, Bochum fourteen point zh six. The underlying numbers

1182
00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:21,120
Speaker 4: are very similar. The form favors Bokum, so I like

1183
00:51:21,320 --> 00:51:24,000
Speaker 4: taking a shot here at plus six fifty to anchor

1184
00:51:24,120 --> 00:51:26,600
Speaker 4: this parlay and give us a little bit of juice, Anthony,

1185
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:28,399
Speaker 4: what is your favorite underdog this weekend?

1186
00:51:28,800 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I'm starting to lose faith growth or

1187
00:51:31,239 --> 00:51:33,279
Speaker 3: firth Man. That was That was one of the worst

1188
00:51:33,320 --> 00:51:35,600
Speaker 3: losses I've had all year. On their money line won

1189
00:51:35,640 --> 00:51:38,439
Speaker 3: the expected goals battle two point nine to one point four,

1190
00:51:39,160 --> 00:51:41,279
Speaker 3: equalized and stoppage time, and conced it a minute later.

1191
00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:46,120
Speaker 3: Absolute pain, sick It was sickening, sickening, And yes I

1192
00:51:46,200 --> 00:51:49,319
Speaker 3: was watching that over football. But I'm trak Frankfort. Plus

1193
00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:52,160
Speaker 3: two forty is where I'm looking here. I faded Frankfort

1194
00:51:52,160 --> 00:51:54,479
Speaker 3: two weeks ago. They got lucky, But this number doesn't

1195
00:51:54,480 --> 00:51:57,520
Speaker 3: make a ton of sense to me. I understand that

1196
00:51:57,800 --> 00:52:00,600
Speaker 3: Frankfort has been really bad to start the season, but

1197
00:52:01,080 --> 00:52:03,879
Speaker 3: at what point are we going to say, like they're

1198
00:52:03,960 --> 00:52:05,720
Speaker 3: way too good last year to all of a sudden

1199
00:52:05,840 --> 00:52:08,319
Speaker 3: have completely fallen off a cliff unless we think Audi

1200
00:52:08,400 --> 00:52:10,600
Speaker 3: Huter is like the greatest manager ever.

1201
00:52:11,080 --> 00:52:11,200
Speaker 1: Uh.

1202
00:52:11,320 --> 00:52:15,080
Speaker 3: They didn't really lose anybody besides Andre Silva, and Silva's

1203
00:52:15,120 --> 00:52:17,360
Speaker 3: not doing a ton at lipstick anyway. They have some

1204
00:52:17,520 --> 00:52:21,279
Speaker 3: pieces who are doing a decent job of replacing him,

1205
00:52:21,480 --> 00:52:23,240
Speaker 3: but it's just not quite showing up at the numbers.

1206
00:52:23,280 --> 00:52:26,960
Speaker 3: It feels like Frankfort is getting closer and they're going

1207
00:52:27,040 --> 00:52:28,680
Speaker 3: to break through at some point. I want to be

1208
00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:32,000
Speaker 3: there when they do. My projections have them at plus

1209
00:52:32,040 --> 00:52:35,279
Speaker 3: two hundred here. I'm not quite sure why they're such

1210
00:52:35,280 --> 00:52:38,640
Speaker 3: a big underdog, so give me. I'm track Frankfurt plus

1211
00:52:38,680 --> 00:52:41,640
Speaker 3: two forty and look, I'm sure they'll find a way

1212
00:52:41,680 --> 00:52:44,279
Speaker 3: to blow it. So you know, I'm just expecting it

1213
00:52:44,480 --> 00:52:47,560
Speaker 3: to go poorly at this point, but you know, we'll

1214
00:52:47,600 --> 00:52:50,759
Speaker 3: see how this goes. Freiburg running incredibly lucky at both

1215
00:52:50,920 --> 00:52:51,919
Speaker 3: ends of the pitch.

1216
00:52:52,680 --> 00:52:54,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, the way these underdogs have been going, like we'll

1217
00:52:54,760 --> 00:52:57,839
Speaker 4: hit one. One will be always the first one. Yeah,

1218
00:52:58,360 --> 00:52:59,920
Speaker 4: first one, and then and then it'll be an absolute

1219
00:53:00,239 --> 00:53:03,080
Speaker 4: train loss, and then the third one will come close. BJ.

1220
00:53:03,680 --> 00:53:06,840
Speaker 4: What is your favorite underdog play across the Europe this weekend?

1221
00:53:07,239 --> 00:53:09,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I already mentioned it leads plus three point fifty

1222
00:53:09,920 --> 00:53:14,080
Speaker 2: on Sunday against Tottenham. Listen, this Tottenham team, they're going

1223
00:53:14,160 --> 00:53:16,520
Speaker 2: to improve under Antonio concert I truly believe that, and

1224
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:19,520
Speaker 2: I'm an unbiased person, but as it stands today, this

1225
00:53:19,640 --> 00:53:21,600
Speaker 2: team is a bottom half of the table team. They

1226
00:53:21,680 --> 00:53:24,640
Speaker 2: are only creating point nine to seven non penalty expectacles

1227
00:53:24,680 --> 00:53:27,239
Speaker 2: per match and what some people are calling the best

1228
00:53:27,239 --> 00:53:30,400
Speaker 2: striker in the world has one goal in ten appearances.

1229
00:53:30,480 --> 00:53:32,319
Speaker 2: And I think this Leads team is starting to turn

1230
00:53:32,360 --> 00:53:35,960
Speaker 2: a corner. They had great performances against Wolves and Leicester

1231
00:53:36,160 --> 00:53:39,840
Speaker 2: before the international break. Defensively, they're just they're not allowing

1232
00:53:39,880 --> 00:53:41,880
Speaker 2: a ton of high quality chances. They're just allowing a

1233
00:53:41,960 --> 00:53:44,279
Speaker 2: ton of high volume of low quality chances, which I

1234
00:53:44,320 --> 00:53:47,120
Speaker 2: think is good against a Tottenham team that really doesn't

1235
00:53:47,120 --> 00:53:50,040
Speaker 2: create high quality chances at all. So I have Leads

1236
00:53:50,120 --> 00:53:54,120
Speaker 2: projected at plus two forty six, so I love.

1237
00:53:54,040 --> 00:53:55,560
Speaker 1: Them at plus three fifty.

1238
00:53:55,719 --> 00:53:58,480
Speaker 4: If you play all three of those in a parlay

1239
00:53:59,040 --> 00:54:01,719
Speaker 4: one hundred and four team to one, just a little

1240
00:54:01,719 --> 00:54:05,320
Speaker 4: bit north of what Manchester United is to win the

1241
00:54:05,360 --> 00:54:07,960
Speaker 4: Premier League. There one hundredth to one right now, and

1242
00:54:08,440 --> 00:54:11,400
Speaker 4: let's wrap this show up our favorite Premier League bets

1243
00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:14,720
Speaker 4: for this coming weekend. BJA will start with you, where's

1244
00:54:14,880 --> 00:54:15,920
Speaker 4: your money going in.

1245
00:54:16,000 --> 00:54:18,600
Speaker 2: The prem Yeah, I'm going Brentford drawing on Bett at

1246
00:54:18,640 --> 00:54:21,040
Speaker 2: minus f one pH five. Fantastic matchup for Brentford, who

1247
00:54:21,080 --> 00:54:22,440
Speaker 2: I don't think we mentioned I think they might be

1248
00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:25,120
Speaker 2: the new Brighton this season. You know, they're currently in

1249
00:54:25,160 --> 00:54:27,000
Speaker 2: fourteenth place, but they have a plus five point three

1250
00:54:27,040 --> 00:54:29,759
Speaker 2: to one non penalty expected gold differential that's fifth in

1251
00:54:29,880 --> 00:54:32,640
Speaker 2: the Premier League. Like we mentioned, they had a good

1252
00:54:32,719 --> 00:54:35,160
Speaker 2: result or not a good result, but they won the

1253
00:54:35,200 --> 00:54:37,520
Speaker 2: expected goals batle pretty handedly against Norwich right before the

1254
00:54:37,560 --> 00:54:40,160
Speaker 2: international break. And I'm really just fading this Newcastle team,

1255
00:54:40,160 --> 00:54:42,600
Speaker 2: who now has Eddie Howe managing, and we already mentioned it.

1256
00:54:42,840 --> 00:54:44,440
Speaker 2: I don't know what he's going to do with this

1257
00:54:44,520 --> 00:54:46,920
Speaker 2: defense right now. They played out of they played out

1258
00:54:46,960 --> 00:54:49,640
Speaker 2: a very defensive five to three to two formation under

1259
00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:52,279
Speaker 2: the last manager, Steve Bruce, but they allowed two point

1260
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:55,279
Speaker 2: three to seven expected goals per ninety minutes. So Eddie

1261
00:54:55,320 --> 00:54:59,120
Speaker 2: Howe typically plays played very open with Bournemouth when he

1262
00:54:59,160 --> 00:55:00,759
Speaker 2: was last in the Premier leagu so I don't really

1263
00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:02,720
Speaker 2: understand how he's going to play open with this Newcastle

1264
00:55:02,760 --> 00:55:05,840
Speaker 2: team given how bad they are defensively. I have Brentford

1265
00:55:05,880 --> 00:55:09,040
Speaker 2: projected as a slight favorite, so I like the Bees

1266
00:55:09,800 --> 00:55:11,359
Speaker 2: drawn no Bett at minus one o five.

1267
00:55:11,800 --> 00:55:14,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like Brentford too. You beat me to that one,

1268
00:55:14,120 --> 00:55:16,200
Speaker 4: so I'm going to go with the other New Brighton

1269
00:55:16,400 --> 00:55:19,680
Speaker 4: or one of the other New Brighton's besides Wolves and Brentford.

1270
00:55:19,760 --> 00:55:23,440
Speaker 4: I like Crystal Palace plus one sixty. They're taking on Burnley.

1271
00:55:23,480 --> 00:55:25,520
Speaker 4: I think the talent should win out. Connor Gallagher in

1272
00:55:25,560 --> 00:55:30,480
Speaker 4: the midfield, Wilford Zaha going forward. This team is good defensively,

1273
00:55:30,920 --> 00:55:33,239
Speaker 4: they're good in the midfield and they have a game

1274
00:55:33,320 --> 00:55:36,440
Speaker 4: breaker in Zaja. So give me the Eagles on the

1275
00:55:36,560 --> 00:55:40,480
Speaker 4: road taking on Burnley plus one sixty. Anthony, wrap up

1276
00:55:40,480 --> 00:55:42,160
Speaker 4: with the program please Yeah.

1277
00:55:42,280 --> 00:55:44,640
Speaker 3: Lester and Chelsea both teams to score getting up early

1278
00:55:45,040 --> 00:55:48,160
Speaker 3: on Saturday morning. This is all about Chelsea defensive regression.

1279
00:55:48,440 --> 00:55:51,080
Speaker 3: They have conceded four goals from eleven expected goals only

1280
00:55:51,120 --> 00:55:53,320
Speaker 3: six point nine post shot expected, so teams are just

1281
00:55:53,360 --> 00:55:55,960
Speaker 3: not shooting well against them. That will not continue forever.

1282
00:55:56,200 --> 00:55:58,399
Speaker 3: Leicester City's attack has been trending up for weeks. We're

1283
00:55:58,400 --> 00:56:01,080
Speaker 3: starting to see more involvement of guys like and Yanaco

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Speaker 3: who are trending up in the right direction to take

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Speaker 3: some of those Varty minutes off of him. Tieliman's is

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Speaker 3: questionable for Leicester, which I don't love here. That being said,

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Speaker 3: Chelsea has not been good when defending leads, which they're

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Speaker 3: favored to do. You know, in this match, they're favored

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Speaker 3: to be ahead at some point, so they're only they're

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Speaker 3: allowing one point six to eight expected goals per ninety

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Speaker 3: when leading this season, so they have not been able

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Speaker 3: to kill off games. Leicester, We'll get on the board here.

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Speaker 3: Chelsea attack has actually been pretty good without Lucaco and Berner,

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Speaker 3: and so I'm expecting both teams to score here minus

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00:56:28,680 --> 00:56:32,400
Speaker 3: one twenty my number minus one forty eight, So expecting

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Speaker 3: a high scoring game here at King Power Stadium.

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Speaker 4: All Right, that wraps up this week's episode of Wonder Goal.

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Speaker 4: We'll be back on Monday. As you know, we are

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Speaker 4: getting into the festive fixtures pretty soon here, so a

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Speaker 4: lot of soccer coming our way over the next two months.

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Speaker 4: We can't wait. Be sure to leave us a review

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00:56:51,680 --> 00:56:54,600
Speaker 4: on Apple Podcasts, and when you do that, if you

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00:56:54,680 --> 00:56:57,200
Speaker 4: leave your Twitter handle in the review, you automatically be

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00:56:57,320 --> 00:57:00,200
Speaker 4: entered into a contest to win the soccer jersey your

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00:57:00,239 --> 00:57:02,759
Speaker 4: choice from this season. That contest will wrap up at

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00:57:02,760 --> 00:57:04,239
Speaker 4: the end of the month, so please be sure to

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00:57:04,280 --> 00:57:06,320
Speaker 4: do it as soon as possible. The other contests the

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00:57:06,320 --> 00:57:09,200
Speaker 4: tweet at Chad Millman contest will also wrap up at

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00:57:09,200 --> 00:57:12,040
Speaker 4: the end of the month, so for Anthony de Bundo,

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00:57:12,160 --> 00:57:14,600
Speaker 4: for BJ Cunningham, and for our producers Tommy and Matt,

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Speaker 4: thank you very much for listening to Warnerville and we'll

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Speaker 4: see you next week.