1 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jay Ley. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Your 5 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:29,600 Speaker 1: main the event of the week, really, Chairman pab will 6 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 1: be speaking in Jackson Hole. Ready please to say that 7 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:34,159 Speaker 1: here in New York, right here, right now. Dana Peterson 8 00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:37,920 Speaker 1: joins US Cities Global Economists. Good morning to Dana, Good morning, 9 00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:39,839 Speaker 1: how are you. Let's talk about what you've seen in 10 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:41,919 Speaker 1: the FED minutes and what you expect from Chairman pal 11 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:44,240 Speaker 1: on Friday. Just walk us through it. Sure, I mean 12 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 1: the FED minutes are a little bit dated, but I 13 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:49,480 Speaker 1: think what's important is that the Fed was again very 14 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 1: clear about what the reasons from why they cut interest rates. 15 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:58,000 Speaker 1: Three things. Number one, inflation persistently missing there to present 16 00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:01,280 Speaker 1: target and concerns about making sure that they achieve that 17 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:04,759 Speaker 1: target over the next two years. Number two, a lot 18 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 1: of concern about the global economy um reflected in financial markets. 19 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:13,840 Speaker 1: And number three uncertainty. Uncertainty brought about by the trade 20 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:16,559 Speaker 1: wars between the US and the rest of the world. 21 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 1: And so with those three things, the FED said, yes, 22 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 1: we're implementing this insurance cut, and this is a mid 23 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 1: cycle adjustment. Um, what is the FED looking at? I 24 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 1: see six things. On the one hand, the Fed's looking 25 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:34,000 Speaker 1: at the real economy, growth, inflation, and the labor market. 26 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 1: On the other hand, the FED is looking at financial conditions, 27 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:41,280 Speaker 1: the external environment, and the generalized degree of uncertainty. And 28 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:43,559 Speaker 1: so with those things, at least three of the six 29 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:47,600 Speaker 1: are signaling red signals right now, right, I love the 30 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 1: idea of of six things. It's sort of like throw 31 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:51,840 Speaker 1: a dart, which one is going to actually be the 32 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 1: most important to look at it any given moment. So, DNA, 33 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 1: I want you to weigh in on the on the 34 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 1: sort of hypothetical that John and I were talking about. 35 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:02,480 Speaker 1: Let's say the FED cuts rates by seventy five basis 36 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:05,520 Speaker 1: points in September, totally surprises everybody. I'm not saying this 37 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 1: is likely possible whatever, They're not going to do this, 38 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:10,960 Speaker 1: but let's just say they do. Will that steep in 39 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 1: the yield curve? Will that prompt a further rally in stocks, 40 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:19,519 Speaker 1: or will that send shock and fear through markets? Well, 41 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:21,799 Speaker 1: I'm gonna be the two handed economists a little bit here. 42 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:28,160 Speaker 1: I wouldn't expect well, first of all, I mean, first 43 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:30,920 Speaker 1: of all, we probably would be among those analysts lined 44 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 1: up outside of your window saying, hey, the FED just 45 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:38,520 Speaker 1: wasted you know, a lot of precious UM monetary policy space. UM. 46 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:41,239 Speaker 1: But the thing is that you have these these these 47 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:44,919 Speaker 1: two different uh things that are weighing on the yield curve. 48 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:47,919 Speaker 1: At the short end, yes, markets are expecting the FED 49 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:51,600 Speaker 1: are believing that the FED should go seventy basis points. 50 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 1: At the other end of the curve, you have a 51 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 1: lot of pressure because their concerns about the equity market. Um, 52 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 1: we're looking at earnings for the I can have of 53 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:03,639 Speaker 1: this year. They're going to be downgraded considerably, And so 54 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:06,520 Speaker 1: you have this flight to quality. That's great the US. 55 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:09,640 Speaker 1: The scene is quality. UM. But with all those things, 56 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:13,960 Speaker 1: the FED kit possibly really affect everything. UM. The FED 57 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 1: has the most control over the shorter end of the curve. 58 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 1: And certainly if the FED does implement all of this, 59 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:22,840 Speaker 1: you still have them trade wars and everyone's thinking that 60 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 1: the FED can offset the negative effects of policies in Washington. 61 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:29,800 Speaker 1: Just to build on Lisa's question. I think it's an 62 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:31,919 Speaker 1: important one. Typically, what you would expect is the curve 63 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 1: to bull steep in the front end yields to drop aggressively, 64 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:38,240 Speaker 1: and the longer end maybe even pick up. What we've 65 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:41,600 Speaker 1: seen though in places like Europe, in Japan, and increasingly 66 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 1: maybe even here in the United States, is when we 67 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:46,600 Speaker 1: start to think about easing, where the short rate goes, 68 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:49,480 Speaker 1: that just bleeds across the curve and the whole curve 69 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 1: just becomes a whole lot shallower. Do you see any 70 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 1: reason to believe why cutting aggressively will actually boost growth expectations, 71 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:02,080 Speaker 1: boost inflation expect titians to the extent that people won't 72 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 1: just take that view on short rates and say, you 73 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:06,160 Speaker 1: know what, I just think we're going to be low 74 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 1: for a whole lot longer. I'm going to drop the 75 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 1: whole curve down flatter, flatter, flatter, and just beat the 76 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:15,000 Speaker 1: whole thing even lower. Your sentiments are exactly what our 77 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:19,320 Speaker 1: rate strategist have been saying that if the FED goes 78 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:22,080 Speaker 1: goes hard in terms of cutting interest rates, that we 79 00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 1: were not going to see the stepening of the YO 80 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 1: curve because everyone globally is going to expect low for longer, 81 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:32,720 Speaker 1: lower growth rates, potentially lower inflation, lower interest rates both 82 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 1: nominal and real. And so we're not going to see 83 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 1: this stepening. And that's the challenge for the FED. What 84 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:42,039 Speaker 1: does the FED do in this environment. Let's say we 85 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:44,120 Speaker 1: do get a trade deal, let's say the US and 86 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:48,200 Speaker 1: Chin to make progress. Does that materially change the outlook? 87 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 1: And the reason why I'm asking this is because Stephen 88 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:53,160 Speaker 1: Major of HSBC, who has gotten the rates picture correct, 89 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 1: he's been sort of the lone voice getting it right 90 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 1: year after year. He came out and said, not even 91 00:04:58,040 --> 00:05:00,160 Speaker 1: that would be enough to cause yields to go up 92 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 1: at this point. It's deeper than that. Would you agree, Well, 93 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:07,679 Speaker 1: we would say this that even if there is a deal, 94 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:10,839 Speaker 1: it's uncertain what this deal might look like. It's probably 95 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:12,720 Speaker 1: going to be an ear of a deal. But the 96 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 1: damage has already been done globally as well as in 97 00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 1: u as. We've already seen businesses pull back, They've retrenched 98 00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 1: with respect to investment um, Factory activity has collapsed. People. Uh, 99 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 1: you know, with the trade deals, or rather with the 100 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:31,560 Speaker 1: trade wars. We have businesses that are losing clients. You 101 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:35,279 Speaker 1: can't reverse all of that and the damage has already 102 00:05:35,320 --> 00:05:39,159 Speaker 1: been done, and you would need a very significant trade 103 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:43,719 Speaker 1: deal and some reorientation that would benefit the global economy 104 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:46,960 Speaker 1: from trade command on a bright spot, just a little one, 105 00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:49,240 Speaker 1: just a little glimmer of hope, But that wasn't helpful 106 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:54,840 Speaker 1: to you. In Germany incredibly incredibly important manufacturing sector, we'll 107 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:56,800 Speaker 1: all agree with that, much more important for Germany than 108 00:05:56,839 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 1: say the United States. And yet still the service actor 109 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 1: is okay. Can't the United States take a little bit 110 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:04,320 Speaker 1: of confidence from that that in Germany they have a 111 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:08,200 Speaker 1: terrible manufacturing situation right now and services is still holding up. 112 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 1: If that's the case, isn't that pretty encouraging for the 113 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:15,160 Speaker 1: United States? Well, I think as an economist anything that 114 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:17,280 Speaker 1: that certainly is encouraging. And it's actually a story we're 115 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:20,039 Speaker 1: seeing around the world, including in the US, where manufacturing 116 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:23,599 Speaker 1: is tanking, um reflecting the fact that China has been 117 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:26,520 Speaker 1: weakening for some time, even before the trade wars, and 118 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:29,400 Speaker 1: then you have the trade wars layered on. But the 119 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 1: services sector has been doing well, and also consumers are 120 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:36,480 Speaker 1: still spending, and so there are some bright spots regionally, 121 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:40,040 Speaker 1: domestically and among a number of economies. But you cannot 122 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 1: ignore the fact that trade globally has collapsed. Even in 123 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:46,760 Speaker 1: the US exports plus imports, when you add them together, 124 00:06:47,279 --> 00:06:50,760 Speaker 1: growth rates have dropped to zero. Danna was great to 125 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 1: cant shop with you. Really thoughtful stuff has always Danna 126 00:06:52,960 --> 00:07:10,320 Speaker 1: Peterson Cities Global Economists. Great to have you with me, Lisa, 127 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 1: and great to have Lisa with us on a big 128 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:16,120 Speaker 1: day for central banking as the Annual Symposium and Jackson Hole, 129 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:18,840 Speaker 1: Wyoming kicks off with the Federal Reserve, the House Fed 130 00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:21,800 Speaker 1: President in the Kansas City Chief. Of course, as that 131 00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 1: George kicks things off for us. She caught up with 132 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 1: Michael McKee a little bit earlier on. Here's what she 133 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 1: had to say about the outlook for monetary policy. Take 134 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 1: a listen. I think where rates are right now relative 135 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:36,800 Speaker 1: to the unemployment rate and inflation suggest we're at a 136 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:39,520 Speaker 1: sort of equilibrium right now, and I'd be happy to 137 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:44,240 Speaker 1: leave rates here absent seeing either some weakness or some strengthening, 138 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:46,560 Speaker 1: some kind of upside risk that would cause me to 139 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:49,200 Speaker 1: think rates should be somewhere else Where would you put 140 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 1: the neutral rate right now relative to where you are? 141 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 1: Are you tight? Are you loose? Accommodative? How do you 142 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 1: see it? So I would policy to be at neutral 143 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 1: or even accommodated with this last rate cut. If you 144 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 1: think about where real interest rates are relative to the 145 00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:11,400 Speaker 1: rate of inflation and where the FED funds rate is, 146 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:15,800 Speaker 1: we're operating close to zero with real rates. I can't 147 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:18,920 Speaker 1: believe that that is tight in any sense for the 148 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:21,560 Speaker 1: economy right now. Would you push back against the argument 149 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:23,960 Speaker 1: then that the December rate increase was a mistake on 150 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 1: the FEDS part. So, I think in my public speeches, 151 00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 1: my view was we were beginning to see mounting downside 152 00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 1: risk at that time, and that those were beginning to 153 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 1: have some concern about the outlook. Give influenced my outlook 154 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:42,720 Speaker 1: in terms of flattening a path of policy at that point. 155 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:46,400 Speaker 1: But I think, as we've judged over the last two quarters, 156 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:50,280 Speaker 1: the economy has continued to grow, and I don't think 157 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 1: I think the economy has absorbed that so well. If 158 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:57,199 Speaker 1: you're not ready to put more accommodation into the economy 159 00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:59,840 Speaker 1: but you don't want to pre commit, uh, would you 160 00:08:59,880 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 1: be able to say that you would definitely dissent on 161 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:05,480 Speaker 1: a fifty basis point cut like the markets are calling for. 162 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 1: I don't see a case for a fifty basis point 163 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 1: cut today. But again I'm mindful in these decisions. You're 164 00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 1: making judgments about how you read the data up until 165 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 1: the time of the meeting, And importantly for me, I 166 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:22,080 Speaker 1: use that meeting to listen to my colleagues to hear 167 00:09:22,160 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 1: what their arguments are, how they wait some of those risks. 168 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:28,600 Speaker 1: So it's always difficult for me to prejudge where I 169 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:31,440 Speaker 1: will come out until I get into that meeting. Do 170 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 1: you think markets are looking at the economy rationally these days? 171 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:36,800 Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm not in the markets to know 172 00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 1: what those judgments are. I think markets see how the 173 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 1: rest of the world is slowing. I think uncertainty never 174 00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 1: plays well UM in the market, So I understand why 175 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 1: you see fear and uncertainty right now. That isn't the 176 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:56,679 Speaker 1: metric though that UM. I feel we have to focus 177 00:09:56,679 --> 00:09:59,559 Speaker 1: on We have a clear mandate and I think a 178 00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:02,360 Speaker 1: law term view that we have to stay focused on. 179 00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:06,520 Speaker 1: Agriculture is big in your district. Farmers have complained that 180 00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:10,680 Speaker 1: with the trade wars, they can't sell. Prices have gone down, 181 00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:13,680 Speaker 1: yet at the same time, the administration is using the 182 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 1: extra taxes were all paying in tariffs to compensate the farmers. 183 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:21,199 Speaker 1: So are they bad badly off or are they making 184 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:23,720 Speaker 1: it through okay because of these payments. What's the real 185 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:26,679 Speaker 1: story with it? So farmers began to experience a real 186 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 1: hit to their incomes going back before the tariffs, commodity 187 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:35,200 Speaker 1: prices for grains came off. So we're now into a 188 00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 1: fifth year of low farm incomes. That certainly stresses that sector, 189 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 1: but by and large those farmers are not leveraged as 190 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 1: they may have been in past cycles. Um they would 191 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:51,840 Speaker 1: much prefer having outlets for their product as opposed to 192 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:54,120 Speaker 1: subsidies coming in for that. So I don't think it's 193 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:58,240 Speaker 1: an even substitution for them, But I think they're going 194 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:01,320 Speaker 1: to continue to struggle until all the price of their 195 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 1: commodity moves up. I know you would tell me that 196 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 1: the FED is not influenced by politics. You go into 197 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:10,000 Speaker 1: the room and you put all that aside, you don't listen. 198 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 1: But it's every day now, is it tiresome? So I'll 199 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:18,360 Speaker 1: tell you have to be focused on what your job is, 200 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:22,439 Speaker 1: and you have to understand that an institution like the FED, 201 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 1: as many other aspects of our government, is built around 202 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:30,320 Speaker 1: checks and balances. So I have the ability to think 203 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 1: about with complete accountability to Congress for our mandate, being 204 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:39,160 Speaker 1: transparent about my own views, to focus on what serves 205 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 1: the American public best, and I think what serves them 206 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:46,120 Speaker 1: best is for the committee to remain focused on how 207 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 1: do we achieve maximum employment and stable prices for the public. 208 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:54,280 Speaker 1: And I feel good that that's where the committee is focused. 209 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 1: The Kansas City Fed presidents to George that dissenting against 210 00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 1: that right the of July, speaking to Bloomberg's Michael McKee added, 211 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:18,120 Speaker 1: Jackson Home, Wyoming. As we kick off that annual symposium 212 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:20,800 Speaker 1: at the G seven, we finally have a load of 213 00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 1: politicians getting together and try and sort out some problems. 214 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:24,959 Speaker 1: And I'm really pleased to say that joining us here 215 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:28,240 Speaker 1: in New York Bob Hormat's Kissinger vice chair, Bob, I 216 00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:30,760 Speaker 1: had no idea. Sometimes I have to apologize that we 217 00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:33,840 Speaker 1: get too familiar with fantastic guests, and then a piece 218 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:36,360 Speaker 1: of paper crosses my desk and I find out that 219 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 1: you've been the U S Schrper, the presidential planner and 220 00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:42,880 Speaker 1: NoteTaker in eight G seven summits, going all the way 221 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:47,559 Speaker 1: back to Bob. That's incredible. Yes, I started out in 222 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 1: romboulle a Um nineteen seventy five and France when we 223 00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:56,520 Speaker 1: were just coming out of the crisis that was caused 224 00:12:56,520 --> 00:13:00,080 Speaker 1: by the oil price increases of nineteen seventy three. The 225 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:02,559 Speaker 1: world was trying to figure out how to get back 226 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:05,680 Speaker 1: on a on a growth trajectory without triggering a lot 227 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 1: of inflation. And you know, we had the President United States, 228 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:12,439 Speaker 1: of President of France, Chancel of Germany, premises of Japan 229 00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:17,480 Speaker 1: and others. They're working together, and the notion of a 230 00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:20,600 Speaker 1: collective effort by the G seven to deal with the 231 00:13:20,679 --> 00:13:24,040 Speaker 1: problems was really palpable. They were all really on the 232 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:27,200 Speaker 1: same track. Now in contrast and the meeting we're going 233 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:31,320 Speaker 1: to have in ba Ritz on there's division within the 234 00:13:31,400 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 1: G seven, intense division, with the US threatening tariffs on automobiles, 235 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 1: which will affect Germany and Japan. They're already tariffs on 236 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:45,240 Speaker 1: aluminum and steal uh. And the sentence of American leadership 237 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:49,800 Speaker 1: of the global economic order, constructive leadership that was so 238 00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 1: palpable then when we had President Ford, who was our 239 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:57,480 Speaker 1: president now is not there at all. In divisions could 240 00:13:57,559 --> 00:14:02,200 Speaker 1: make this a more negative environment uh than a positive one, 241 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:05,719 Speaker 1: and undermined confidence that would be harmful. You've touched on 242 00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 1: the changes initially, let's explore them further. Typically, the interpretation 243 00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 1: of perception from the outside looking again is that these 244 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:15,040 Speaker 1: were very scripted events. Diplomats behind the scenes got together. 245 00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:18,800 Speaker 1: They basically scripted all the bilaterals, and the outcome was 246 00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:22,920 Speaker 1: almost predetermined before the G seven happens. Sometimes, but was 247 00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:25,480 Speaker 1: that the case? Was that actually what happens, and just 248 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 1: how unscripted is it now compared to back then? That's 249 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:30,479 Speaker 1: hair fright. I mean, there was a lot of scripting, 250 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:34,480 Speaker 1: in part because the officials who were working on this, 251 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 1: and I was the American official, there were French, German, 252 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:41,000 Speaker 1: Japanese and others. We had a general idea what our 253 00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:44,040 Speaker 1: heads of state wanted. We had a general idea of 254 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 1: how the countries, the major economies and furniture powers should 255 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:51,120 Speaker 1: work together to deal with the problem and we move 256 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 1: things ahead. But the final deal, the final arrangements, were 257 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:57,720 Speaker 1: not just what was in the communicate, although that was important, 258 00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:00,920 Speaker 1: but in the minds and in the part pics and 259 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 1: in the uh future pursuits of the leaders that they 260 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 1: were going to work together and stay in touch with 261 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:09,360 Speaker 1: one another and try to get out of this together 262 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:12,240 Speaker 1: and so therefore it was not just the words but 263 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 1: the general cooperative attitude um of the leaders, and we 264 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:21,400 Speaker 1: don't have that now. The last G seven we had 265 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:24,600 Speaker 1: a big discussion over communicate language. The U S didn't 266 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:29,080 Speaker 1: want language, any protectionist language. And we know these leaders 267 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 1: are at odds on everything. Britain's having its own problems 268 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:34,920 Speaker 1: that the Prime Minister is really not going to be 269 00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:39,560 Speaker 1: focused on G seven issues UH and calla Merkel German 270 00:15:39,760 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 1: Chancellor is now going to be sort of in her 271 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:46,200 Speaker 1: and the end of her period of time as Chancellor. 272 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 1: Macron is working very hard and really does have a 273 00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 1: strong leadership view, but has a lot of pressures internally. UH. 274 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:57,560 Speaker 1: Premister Abe has played a very constructive role in moving 275 00:15:57,600 --> 00:16:00,280 Speaker 1: things ahead in in Asia, but now he has got 276 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 1: a yen that's rising. He's not happy with that at 277 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 1: the time he wants to put on UH consumption tax. 278 00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 1: And of course the United States, which really doesn't know 279 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 1: whether there wants to be the leader of the motor 280 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 1: lateral liberal economic order or in America first, which is 281 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 1: protectionists and is disruptive of that order. And others think 282 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 1: the United States is moving in the latter direction. Which 283 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:24,520 Speaker 1: means it's hardly going to be the leader of a 284 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 1: constructive G seven process. Just about a minute here, I'm 285 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 1: wondering from your perspective, we're talking a lot about monetary policy, 286 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 1: but how the focus really is shifting to fiscal stimulus. 287 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 1: From your point of view, what is the one thing 288 00:16:39,280 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 1: that fiscal policymakers could do that could help the economy. Well, 289 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 1: I think the policies that could really help the economy 290 00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 1: are not so much additional government stimulus of the kind 291 00:16:53,560 --> 00:16:56,960 Speaker 1: we had in two thousand and eight, for instance, uh 292 00:16:57,000 --> 00:17:00,480 Speaker 1: and some countries already have big budget deficits in probably 293 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 1: are not gonna be able to do that. The US, 294 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:05,440 Speaker 1: I think, would just be adding to debt, probably not 295 00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:10,240 Speaker 1: boosting the economy. I think the restoring some sense of 296 00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:14,600 Speaker 1: confidence in the outlook, dealing with the levels of uncertainty 297 00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 1: that have arisen as a result of trade wars, as 298 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:22,119 Speaker 1: a result of the potential threat of a of of 299 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:25,840 Speaker 1: currency competition or currency wars. If the leaders could move 300 00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:29,800 Speaker 1: ahead in a constructive way to reduce trade and investment 301 00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:35,000 Speaker 1: tensions and avoid threats of new tariffs, and reduce the 302 00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:38,399 Speaker 1: tariffs that have been imposed, particularly by the United States, 303 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:41,240 Speaker 1: of late that would help, and of course a resolution 304 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 1: of the Briggs that issue would would help as well. 305 00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:47,359 Speaker 1: But it's always great inside and we get it so often. 306 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:50,240 Speaker 1: I should not complain about EA and I shouldn't be 307 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:52,800 Speaker 1: complacent about it. Bob Homas, great to see you, as 308 00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:55,440 Speaker 1: great to have you with us the Kissing Device chair 309 00:17:55,480 --> 00:18:09,359 Speaker 1: then joining us ahead of the G seven. This is 310 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 1: a treat here. We uh are good friend Brian Weezer. 311 00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:15,760 Speaker 1: He's a Group M president for business intelligence. He's been 312 00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:20,879 Speaker 1: covering the media, uh, internet, technology space, advertising space for 313 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:24,240 Speaker 1: years from all sides and uh and we've got him 314 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:26,080 Speaker 1: here this morning. Brian, thanks so much for joining us 315 00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:28,199 Speaker 1: on the phone. Um, you know, I think I'd like 316 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 1: to start with the deal that you and I and 317 00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:33,159 Speaker 1: every other media investor has been kind of waiting for 318 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:37,960 Speaker 1: seemingly for years, which is this Viacom CBS merger. Looks 319 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:41,679 Speaker 1: like they're getting back together. What does this mean for 320 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:45,239 Speaker 1: your side of the street, Madison Avenue advertisers? Do they 321 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:48,800 Speaker 1: even care? Well? Yeah, first all, thanks for having me on. 322 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:53,560 Speaker 1: I do think that they care because it does uh 323 00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:57,959 Speaker 1: concentrate a little more inventory, which in this context is 324 00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:01,679 Speaker 1: probably a good thing on balance, it things like, you know, 325 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:06,080 Speaker 1: via Colm has a product called has a number of 326 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:09,360 Speaker 1: what they call advantage of products UM, and being able 327 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 1: to apply those across CBS inventory. Being able to run 328 00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:16,320 Speaker 1: a campaign across the combined CBS by a com inventory together, 329 00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:22,280 Speaker 1: which is hopefully something that happens, is probably an incrementally 330 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:25,159 Speaker 1: good thing. It's not a game changer by any stretch, 331 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:28,320 Speaker 1: but that's positive. It's and at the same time, the 332 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:34,359 Speaker 1: concentration of of ad inventory doesn't meaningly alter the dynamics 333 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:37,640 Speaker 1: conterms of who has what power in the industry. CBS 334 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:40,080 Speaker 1: was already one of the first prices you would go 335 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 1: to spend money because of the broadcast network. Via Colm 336 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:47,400 Speaker 1: was already important because um, you know, they could sell 337 00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:50,399 Speaker 1: a lot of inventory cheaply. UM. I think the bigger 338 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:55,239 Speaker 1: implications are sort of what comes next, Like do they 339 00:19:55,320 --> 00:19:59,040 Speaker 1: keep Simon and Schuster and then or not? And then 340 00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:01,879 Speaker 1: do they sell it and get some uh have some 341 00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:06,000 Speaker 1: capital to do something else? It's interesting, Um, do they 342 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:12,359 Speaker 1: double down on their studio um and then at the 343 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:16,040 Speaker 1: same time double down on what CBS all accesses or 344 00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:20,440 Speaker 1: do they try to become this arms merchant of content 345 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:24,080 Speaker 1: uh and try to replicate what Warner Brothers was, which 346 00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:30,280 Speaker 1: is to say, every company second davorite supplier of content. Um. 347 00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 1: I don't know that they can do both, by the way, 348 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,120 Speaker 1: but but the implications of the industry will follow from 349 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 1: what they choose to do once they figure out what 350 00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:40,679 Speaker 1: they're going to do. Brian, I find it so interesting 351 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:45,160 Speaker 1: this transformation that's been going on from cable to online 352 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:48,879 Speaker 1: and digital and streaming, and as an advertiser as to 353 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:53,200 Speaker 1: try to try to understand how to best reach consumers. 354 00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:58,080 Speaker 1: And I'm wondering, from your perspective, which platform is the 355 00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:04,240 Speaker 1: further along in term of uh creating an advertising platform 356 00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:10,000 Speaker 1: that is really accessible and effective with consumers. Oh, I 357 00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:13,160 Speaker 1: mean the oldest, one of the older ones, that broadcast 358 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:17,680 Speaker 1: television is probably still that thing. And it is. Oh yeah, 359 00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:22,360 Speaker 1: I mean the reach of broadcast TV is still in parallel. Um. 360 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:26,240 Speaker 1: Nothing comes close. And on top of that, the um, 361 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,360 Speaker 1: you know, the impact of cites on emotion, the pairing 362 00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 1: of the content brand with an advertiser's brand. I mean, 363 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:37,919 Speaker 1: you know it's no mistake that you know, a more 364 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:40,639 Speaker 1: most extreme example, I could point to something like Apple, 365 00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 1: the advertiser last at check the almost only advertised on 366 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:49,520 Speaker 1: broadcast TV and outdoor billboards, right, and which which computer 367 00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 1: company has a brand left? Right? The Apple? Yep, exactly. 368 00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:59,040 Speaker 1: So I mean, so, Brian, you think about it here. Um, 369 00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:01,040 Speaker 1: one of the things that inst this is that Viacom 370 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:02,440 Speaker 1: had that. I thought it was pretty interesting and it 371 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:04,280 Speaker 1: doesn't get a lot of play. When we think about streaming, 372 00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:08,160 Speaker 1: we think about Netflix, all the subscription driven uh streaming 373 00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,359 Speaker 1: services again like Netflix or Hulu. But Viacom bought this 374 00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:13,760 Speaker 1: company called Pluto TV and it's I think it's what 375 00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:16,840 Speaker 1: it's called advertising streaming video on demand. Tell us about 376 00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:19,359 Speaker 1: kind of that market, and do you think that's a 377 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:24,639 Speaker 1: growing viable market for the entertainment sector. Yeah, I mean, 378 00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,720 Speaker 1: I wouldn't think of it as anything particularly different. It's 379 00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:32,560 Speaker 1: just a bunch of video inventory that's supported. In fact, 380 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:38,000 Speaker 1: I often find myself watching Bloomberg on Pluto when whatever reason. 381 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:42,200 Speaker 1: Thank you for that. Well, right now, it's funny. I'm 382 00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:49,120 Speaker 1: streaming the Bloomberg on my Overexfinity, the Comcast service, and 383 00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:51,680 Speaker 1: if that was down for some reason my password wasn't 384 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:53,320 Speaker 1: working or whatever, I can go and watch it on 385 00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 1: Pluto for free. Now Viacom has some inventory there, so 386 00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 1: they're just running ads on programming that comes from Bloomberg 387 00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:05,680 Speaker 1: in that case, and there's a couple of hundred other channels, 388 00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:09,200 Speaker 1: many of which also run on traditional TV. So I 389 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:12,840 Speaker 1: wouldn't think of it as necessarily anything overly different. It's 390 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:16,119 Speaker 1: just primium video inventor. One thing. I'm wondering though, when 391 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:18,760 Speaker 1: you talk about cable TV and how that still is 392 00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:21,399 Speaker 1: the best distribution network in terms of power and reach. 393 00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:24,720 Speaker 1: I'm wondering, though, if the time has changed, the sort 394 00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:28,720 Speaker 1: of thirty second spot, whether you're seeing it compressed, how 395 00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:33,159 Speaker 1: is that sort of evolving. Yeah, I mean in a 396 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:39,800 Speaker 1: traditional TV format, Uh, it really hasn't changed much at all. Um. 397 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:43,360 Speaker 1: That said, I think that there's this idea that you 398 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:47,600 Speaker 1: should be able to create video assets for digital environments 399 00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,959 Speaker 1: where maybe inside of a new speed and thirties second 400 00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:54,360 Speaker 1: add just won't work. You need assets that can be 401 00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:58,280 Speaker 1: you can work in maybe two seconds, if not six. Um. 402 00:23:58,359 --> 00:23:59,800 Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, it's a very 403 00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:03,240 Speaker 1: kind of add I actually think of those sorts of 404 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 1: adds the evolution of rich media. If you go back, 405 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,119 Speaker 1: you know, to the dawn of the Internet, you had 406 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:13,399 Speaker 1: simple banner ads, right, which were just straight up display ads. UM. 407 00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:18,199 Speaker 1: As technology became better, as a connections became factor, you 408 00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 1: had moving images on those banner ads, and then as 409 00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:25,120 Speaker 1: time progressed, you could have video elements inside of his ads. 410 00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:27,760 Speaker 1: And now we're at a point where in the same 411 00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,239 Speaker 1: place where you would have consumed a banner ad, there 412 00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:32,080 Speaker 1: might be a place where you could row your cursor 413 00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:33,919 Speaker 1: over it and then a video ad would pop up. 414 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:39,240 Speaker 1: It's a very different proposition because you're not as an advertiser. 415 00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:43,560 Speaker 1: You're not pairing sight, sound, and motion of the content 416 00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:48,240 Speaker 1: with your brand. You're not borrowing brand equity in the 417 00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:51,680 Speaker 1: same way. For whatever reason, the brand equity that a 418 00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:55,280 Speaker 1: consumer attaches to the content doesn't translate to the brand 419 00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:58,160 Speaker 1: the advertisers brand in the same way in that context. 420 00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:02,600 Speaker 1: Right if I watched bloomber and I see a video ad, 421 00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:05,439 Speaker 1: I may associate the quality of the programming I've just 422 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:09,480 Speaker 1: seen with the brand who's advertising. It doesn't always translate 423 00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:12,960 Speaker 1: as well for whatever reason in another environment. So back 424 00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:15,199 Speaker 1: to the point of the two second add or a 425 00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:18,399 Speaker 1: sick second add you've got a very different objective in 426 00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:20,760 Speaker 1: terms of what you're trying to do and what your 427 00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 1: business school is and learning. Again, at the first point, 428 00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:24,840 Speaker 1: Brian we San, thanks so much for joining us and 429 00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:27,720 Speaker 1: giving us a good chunk of your time this morning 430 00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:29,800 Speaker 1: talk about what's going on in the world of media 431 00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:32,680 Speaker 1: and how advertisers are interacting with all the new media 432 00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:34,920 Speaker 1: out there. Brian is a Group M global president for 433 00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:38,919 Speaker 1: business Intelligence. We appreciate his time, and uh, you know, 434 00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:41,000 Speaker 1: I think it's interesting to see, but if you look 435 00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:42,879 Speaker 1: at the dollars flow in the digital media, there's just 436 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,600 Speaker 1: no let up. So even though there's Facebook issues and 437 00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:49,600 Speaker 1: data privacy issues, brand security issues, and you would think 438 00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:51,840 Speaker 1: brands might pull away from some of these platforms, that 439 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:55,080 Speaker 1: the data just doesn't show it. Thanks for listening to 440 00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:59,679 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on 441 00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:05,600 Speaker 1: Apple podcast, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 442 00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:08,920 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You can 443 00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:12,160 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio