1 00:00:01,880 --> 00:00:04,440 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 2 00:00:04,480 --> 00:00:06,840 Speaker 1: Tim Stanevik. We're here every day bringing you the latest 3 00:00:06,840 --> 00:00:11,000 Speaker 1: news from the world's of business and finance, clus technology, politics, economics, 4 00:00:11,039 --> 00:00:14,040 Speaker 1: all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors, 5 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: not to mention our journalists and analyst in more than 6 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:21,160 Speaker 1: one twenty countries. You can download Bloomberg Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, 7 00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:23,320 Speaker 1: or Bloomberg dot com. You can also listen to our 8 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:26,160 Speaker 1: radio show at two pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio 9 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:30,760 Speaker 1: or stream US live on YouTube and Bloomberg dot com. 10 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 1: It is one of our most word stories on the 11 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:35,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Today. It's about the nationwide halt and airline flights 12 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 1: across the US this morning. This after the FA paused 13 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:41,160 Speaker 1: takeoffs due to a system outage of a key flight system. 14 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:44,880 Speaker 1: Airline shares is abigail mentioned are doing okay? But wait, 15 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:46,559 Speaker 1: do we need to be worried? I gotta say I'm 16 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 1: a little worried when there's an f A a a system failure. 17 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 1: I mean, this shouldn't ever probably happen. With some perspective, 18 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 1: let's bring in Bloomberg's Creed Gupta. She's on the ground 19 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 1: at LaGuardia Airport in New York City along with Allen 20 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 1: leve and he's Aviation Safety and f A reporter at 21 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News on the phone from Washington, D C. Creedy. 22 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 1: Let's kick it off with you. Looks pretty quiet, pretty 23 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 1: come behind you. What's the latest regarding the disruption this 24 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 1: morning and what actually caused the problem? Yeah, well it 25 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 1: is pretty quiet, and I have to say though if 26 00:01:18,600 --> 00:01:20,280 Speaker 1: you go to a different terminal you might see a 27 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: little bit more chaos. And remember this all really started 28 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 1: overnight when you did have, of course, the system wide 29 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:28,759 Speaker 1: outage coming up at the f A. The system called 30 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:32,440 Speaker 1: the No TAM system essentially the Notice to Air Mission system. 31 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 1: It tells things to personnel and to pilots, things like 32 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 1: runaway conditions, construction obstacles, bird hazards, even those are the 33 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:41,840 Speaker 1: kind of things that they need to know to make 34 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:45,240 Speaker 1: sure if a flight gets off the ground safely, as 35 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 1: able to ground safely as well. So essentially the absence 36 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 1: of that constant updating of information creates a pretty scary 37 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 1: environment to operate. So of course we did see as 38 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 1: a result six flight delays around the country. Of course, 39 00:01:58,360 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 1: grounding of all air planes for about two hours this 40 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 1: morning and about a thousand flight cancelations as well, something 41 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:09,480 Speaker 1: that the likes of United Delta Southwest are still kind 42 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:11,480 Speaker 1: of playing a little bit of catch up to. I 43 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 1: love and come on in here because you cover the 44 00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:16,000 Speaker 1: f A for us at Bloomberg News. Tell us everything 45 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 1: that we need to understand about the no TAMP system, 46 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 1: which I think to a lot of people probably hadn't 47 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 1: heard about it until today. Yeah, it's basically an advisory system. 48 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 1: The you know, the aviation system generally have to have 49 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:35,680 Speaker 1: such a high reliability and high level of safety that 50 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 1: they want pilots to know every little detail in advance 51 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:42,839 Speaker 1: before they fly to an airport. So if you're doing 52 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:47,320 Speaker 1: maintenance on the lights at a runway, or let's say 53 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:54,960 Speaker 1: the snow conditions are such that it's a slippery uh, 54 00:02:55,000 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 1: they'll put that in a notem uh. It Also, you know, 55 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 1: if they're launching a rocket into space in Florida, that 56 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 1: requires a clear out a lot of airspace, and so 57 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:11,680 Speaker 1: they handled that as well in a notem Um. But 58 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 1: I do want to make one thing clear that the 59 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 1: system that guide airplanes, that keep them separated in the sky, 60 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 1: that allow air traffic controllers, to talk to pilots, etcetera. 61 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 1: None of those were affected. So this did not in 62 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:34,240 Speaker 1: and of itself cause any safety issues that were aware of. 63 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 1: So so yeah, because I have to say, when I 64 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 1: first heard, I'm like, whoa, what is it? What is 65 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 1: this about? But even so, alan should we assume that 66 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:51,760 Speaker 1: this shouldn't happen? Um? I think it's fair to say 67 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 1: that everyone from FA to the airlines would say that 68 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:58,840 Speaker 1: this shouldn't happen. Um. There are quite a number of 69 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 1: questions that remained to be you know, you know, what 70 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 1: level of backup they had? Did the backup go down? Um? 71 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 1: They certainly have some backup, but was it an instantaneous 72 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 1: backup or did it take him an hour or two 73 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 1: to get the backup up and running? Um? You know, 74 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:20,559 Speaker 1: a lot of that is just not clear yet. Hey, Creedy, 75 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 1: you've been there throughout the day, So give us an 76 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 1: idea how how things have shifted and if it seems like, 77 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:27,839 Speaker 1: you know, travelers are still disrupted, because as we learned 78 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:31,920 Speaker 1: very recently with Southwest, if there's a you know, widespread delay, 79 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:35,359 Speaker 1: then things happen kind of like dominoes, and it takes 80 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:37,360 Speaker 1: a long time for things to go back to normal. 81 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 1: Well's that domino effect that's really the worry here. The 82 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:45,280 Speaker 1: idea that a lot of the airlines are kind of 83 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 1: assuring travelers that this is going to be something that 84 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 1: was going to end by nine am Eastern, then it 85 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:51,640 Speaker 1: was going to end by noon. Then you actually had 86 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 1: a lot of the major transport hubs around the country 87 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 1: start to say, well, actually, we're going to need a 88 00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 1: couple of hours to kind of play that element of 89 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:00,920 Speaker 1: catch up. So now aly are still saying, well, look, 90 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 1: expect those delays, expect those cancelations, but it should be 91 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:06,280 Speaker 1: done by the end of today. That is not necessarily 92 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:08,040 Speaker 1: the case. Now. The thing to worry about here is 93 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:10,560 Speaker 1: that does this kind of seep into tomorrow's flight schedule 94 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:13,360 Speaker 1: as well. You've heard of that sentiment or at least 95 00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:16,400 Speaker 1: that worry coming from Delta, from Southwest and from United 96 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:18,720 Speaker 1: as well. But once again, that seems to be the 97 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:20,479 Speaker 1: big question, how do we even get here in the 98 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:24,040 Speaker 1: first place. Helene Becker, count senior research analyst, told Bloomer 99 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 1: TV earlier that look, this is once again a function 100 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:29,839 Speaker 1: of old technology that's going to take billions and billions 101 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:33,919 Speaker 1: of dollars to renovate and we're just not there. Alan. 102 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 1: Is that something that that you see uh in your 103 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 1: reporting on the f A as well, that this is 104 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:40,920 Speaker 1: a this is an issue of old technology that will 105 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:45,839 Speaker 1: take significant investment. So the the f a A is 106 00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 1: in the years long uh effort of upgrading its entire 107 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:57,279 Speaker 1: air traffic system. And I have to say, generally, uh, 108 00:05:57,640 --> 00:06:02,159 Speaker 1: there've been glitches along the way more than but the 109 00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:06,159 Speaker 1: generally the system is far more modern than it was 110 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 1: ten fifteen years ago when that was a bigger concern. 111 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:13,919 Speaker 1: And and it's generally been more reliable. And so you 112 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:17,080 Speaker 1: know now that we use satellite systems to track planes 113 00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 1: instead of radar, that was a huge switch that started 114 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 1: in UM, the computer systems that the air traffic controllers 115 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:32,919 Speaker 1: used to follow aircraft are all relatively updated. UM. The 116 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:36,159 Speaker 1: UM it remains to be seen. We're hearing kind of 117 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 1: contradictory information about this specific computer system that runs a 118 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:46,920 Speaker 1: NOTEM program, whether it's new or not. UM. You know, 119 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 1: it clearly shouldn't happen, and we'll have to figure out 120 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:56,280 Speaker 1: why uh later on. But but and you know, and 121 00:06:56,360 --> 00:06:58,679 Speaker 1: any time this happens, there's going to be huge calls 122 00:06:58,760 --> 00:07:02,039 Speaker 1: for change gen all that, But but I'd say my 123 00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:04,680 Speaker 1: big picture of you watching this over the past decade 124 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 1: or two, the f A systems overall have been modernized, 125 00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:14,880 Speaker 1: relatively speaking. Hey, just quickly got about a minute or 126 00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 1: so left to both of you and Creedy. Let me 127 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 1: ask you first, Um, can we should we rule out 128 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:25,680 Speaker 1: that this was a cyber attack? Well, that is what's 129 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 1: the Biden administration is saying. But then Peter Boud excuse me, 130 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:31,680 Speaker 1: the Secretary of Transportation, came in later and spoken to 131 00:07:31,840 --> 00:07:33,800 Speaker 1: other outlets and said, well, look, we can't rule out 132 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:37,440 Speaker 1: anything yet. They are creating a white scale investigation. So 133 00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 1: no for now, but of course we have to stay tuned. 134 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 1: Frought date, Alan, what are you hearing on that front? Um, 135 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 1: the same thing, But I just point out that most 136 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 1: of the f A computers are kind of firewalled from 137 00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 1: the normal types of ways that attackers might go after 138 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:02,280 Speaker 1: a system, so the odds are probably lower. But I, 139 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 1: I mean, I would rule anything out at this point. 140 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:07,200 Speaker 1: All right, Well, that kind of fit makes me feel better, 141 00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:09,960 Speaker 1: but I like everything to work, like he said, Carol, 142 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:12,320 Speaker 1: Like Alan said. Nothing in terms of the way that 143 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:15,560 Speaker 1: pilots communicate with each other or with air traffic and 144 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:17,480 Speaker 1: trains around the ground. Yeah, that was a good thing, 145 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 1: all right. Allan Levin Aviation Safety and f A, a 146 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:23,800 Speaker 1: reporter at Bloomberg News joining us on the phone from Washington, 147 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 1: d C. In a creaty group because she's been out 148 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 1: there at LaGuardia Airport, New York City. She's anchored markets 149 00:08:29,320 --> 00:08:32,720 Speaker 1: correspondent here at Bloomberg just following it. Airlines they're just 150 00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:36,560 Speaker 1: up shy of one percent here, so they're doing okay, 151 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 1: doing better than even the markets. On a day we 152 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 1: we're seeing a rally the S and P five hundred 153 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:41,800 Speaker 1: at eight tenths of one percent. The nastack up one 154 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:44,360 Speaker 1: point too. All right. You are listening in watching Bloomberg 155 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:47,760 Speaker 1: Business Week on this Wednesday, Carol Master Tim Stanovic. This 156 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:54,319 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Radio. These sees Bloomberg Business Week with Carol 157 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 1: Messer and Tim Stanovic on Bloomberg Radio Newsia. Bloomberg Business 158 00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:02,199 Speaker 1: Week at newsstands tomorrow, some of the stories already on 159 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:05,080 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg and online at Bloomberg dot com. Slash business Week. 160 00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:08,560 Speaker 1: It is the year ahead issue covering the major trends, disruptions, 161 00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:12,439 Speaker 1: breakthrough products, so much that are coming this year in 162 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:16,120 Speaker 1: and it compliments next year's Bloomberg Live event and Davos 163 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:19,240 Speaker 1: happening as the World Economic Forum hosts its annual meeting. There. 164 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 1: One section in the Year Ahead issue was all about 165 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:25,200 Speaker 1: the consumer, everything from starbucks unhappy New Year to Hollywood's 166 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 1: comeback here and more with a round up. Here is 167 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:31,360 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg Business Week Assistant Managing Editor Jim Ellis. He's 168 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:35,200 Speaker 1: right here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio. Jim, good 169 00:09:35,200 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 1: to see you. Um, the Year Ahead here we are here. 170 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:40,959 Speaker 1: We didn't think it would happen. He made it here. 171 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 1: Inflation is still here. And there's some stuff that we 172 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:45,240 Speaker 1: you know, some themes that we covered a little bit 173 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 1: last year. Uh that kind of gave us a preview 174 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:50,000 Speaker 1: of what to think about this year. I think to 175 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 1: the stories about unionization and Starbucks. So before we get 176 00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 1: to that, though, UM, talk about like how you chose 177 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:04,480 Speaker 1: the stories. Well, actually, one of the things that I 178 00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 1: wanted to do this year was to uh sort of 179 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:10,560 Speaker 1: you know, sort of capture how things are different from 180 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 1: the previous year. And the biggest is that, you know, 181 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:16,520 Speaker 1: while the pandemic sort of defined last year, you know, 182 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:19,200 Speaker 1: how our sort of come back from the pandemic. This year, 183 00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:22,840 Speaker 1: um you know, is going to be defined more about 184 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:26,000 Speaker 1: how consumers sort of you know, what's the new normal 185 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 1: for consumers in other words, you know, lots of things changed. 186 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 1: You obviously returned to work, you know, it's been an issue, 187 00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:35,240 Speaker 1: but also how people want to shop, how people want 188 00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:38,360 Speaker 1: to consume, you know, what people are willing to spend on, 189 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:41,200 Speaker 1: and the way the consumer behaves is a lot different 190 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 1: than than and so we want to capture that. And 191 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 1: so we tried to sort of take a look at 192 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:48,480 Speaker 1: a number of areas. You know, one I was obviously entertained. 193 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:50,199 Speaker 1: It was travel because it's something I love, but it's 194 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:53,800 Speaker 1: also something that was really really knocked during the pandemic. 195 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:56,160 Speaker 1: So I knew that was something we wanted to get into. 196 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 1: And also there were a lot of management shifts that 197 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:02,400 Speaker 1: happened over the uh pandemic period, and a lot of 198 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:06,040 Speaker 1: it was because of the way the consumers were changing 199 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:10,280 Speaker 1: what they wanted to do a good A good example 200 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 1: that was Starbucks simply because China was a big piece 201 00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:15,480 Speaker 1: of its business. China was going to do, um, you know, 202 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 1: not behave this year the way it did before. And 203 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:22,520 Speaker 1: also they were involved in a unionization drive that really 204 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:25,160 Speaker 1: picked up steam, you know, over the course of the pandemic, 205 00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:26,840 Speaker 1: so that I knew it wanted that in there. So 206 00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:29,320 Speaker 1: I went sort of just trying to choose things that 207 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:31,800 Speaker 1: I thought if I was a consumer, what would I 208 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:34,199 Speaker 1: care about? Now? I love that you guys say when 209 00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:37,720 Speaker 1: it comes to starbuck in the section Starbucks, excuse me, 210 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:40,360 Speaker 1: could really use some caffeine this year, And well they're 211 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:43,120 Speaker 1: getting it in the likes of bringing back Howard Schultz, 212 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:45,559 Speaker 1: so connected obviously with this company. It's like the old 213 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:50,360 Speaker 1: leaders are all coming back Disney Tiger, but tell us, um, 214 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 1: they've also got what another They've got a new CEO 215 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:57,360 Speaker 1: who's coming in, Um, who will work with Howard Schultz. 216 00:11:57,440 --> 00:12:02,280 Speaker 1: We'll see how that works out. But I think, oh yeah, so, um, 217 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:04,400 Speaker 1: you know when he's coming. He was the former CEO 218 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:07,160 Speaker 1: of rek It. And the thing is that, you know, 219 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 1: he was very he was successful there. The problem is 220 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:12,960 Speaker 1: that it's a very different type of business. This is 221 00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:15,839 Speaker 1: a this is a true consumer business that sells and 222 00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 1: you know, sort of sells food and drink in restaurants, 223 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:24,319 Speaker 1: regor sells you know, condoms and and other things. But um, 224 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:28,319 Speaker 1: it's a sanitizing, sanitizing, and yeah, but I mean it's 225 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 1: consumer products, but they're not the same thing as selling 226 00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:34,040 Speaker 1: at retail, and so that's the real challenge. He's gonna 227 00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:36,200 Speaker 1: have to learn that job at the same time that 228 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:41,880 Speaker 1: it has a big, big challenge in unionization of its stores. 229 00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:45,880 Speaker 1: And also China, which is its second most important market, 230 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:49,080 Speaker 1: is still not back to normal. That's also supposedly the 231 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:53,320 Speaker 1: big growth market of Starbucks, and they hope that, you know, 232 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:55,319 Speaker 1: they're gonna have nine thousand stores there or something in 233 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 1: a few years. You know, that's gonna be a real lift, 234 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:02,119 Speaker 1: given that China is still not fully back from the pandemic, 235 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 1: and this guy has to figure out how to pull 236 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:09,120 Speaker 1: all this off at the same time that his predecessor, 237 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:13,000 Speaker 1: Howard Schultz, is still remaining on the board. And often founders, 238 00:13:13,040 --> 00:13:15,720 Speaker 1: you know, sort of they tend to be sort of 239 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 1: hands on, and especially a founder like Schultz, who has already, 240 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:22,040 Speaker 1: you know, had the CEO's job three times. He's already 241 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 1: gotten rid of two people before. It's a good point. Hey, 242 00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 1: I gotta talk planes because I know Tim's really into it, 243 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 1: but I'm just thinking, you know, you mentioned the importance 244 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:31,360 Speaker 1: of China China. Obviously in planes that's important, I mean 245 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:33,679 Speaker 1: jumbo jets important kind of, I feel like, to all 246 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:36,720 Speaker 1: the carriers. Well, but we previously thought they were no 247 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:41,000 Speaker 1: longer important. He said, Oh my god, jumbo jets they 248 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:43,400 Speaker 1: got four engines. They you know, they gobble up all 249 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:45,959 Speaker 1: this fuel. So therefore we moved beyond that. And so 250 00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:47,800 Speaker 1: we saw all these new sort of what they call 251 00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:52,000 Speaker 1: new generation planes, the UH seven seven have an X, 252 00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 1: the A three fifty I mean planes, and the Dreamliner 253 00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:59,079 Speaker 1: planes that were supposedly able to do with two engines 254 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:02,199 Speaker 1: everything that the old jumbos like the seven forties seven 255 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:04,920 Speaker 1: and the double decker A three eighty could do. And 256 00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:07,840 Speaker 1: the problem is that, um, you know, we've sort of 257 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:12,599 Speaker 1: retired a lot of those planes, and now demand is 258 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:15,200 Speaker 1: jumped back and they say like, oh my god, we 259 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:17,439 Speaker 1: need we need big planes, and we need big planes 260 00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 1: with big first classes. And he say, like, why does 261 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 1: that matter that much? Well, it matters because the first 262 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:26,320 Speaker 1: class seat can sell for seven thousand dollars, and that's 263 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:30,000 Speaker 1: one way that's not around trip, and you make a 264 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:31,680 Speaker 1: lot of money in the front of the plane. People 265 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:33,920 Speaker 1: always talk about business class, but you started forget that 266 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:36,040 Speaker 1: for a lot of long haul careers. That's still the 267 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:39,000 Speaker 1: first class business, and they've been surprised at how fast 268 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:41,600 Speaker 1: that business has come back, so they want to get 269 00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:43,680 Speaker 1: all these planes that have a lot of first class 270 00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 1: seats back up in the air. What's really surprising to 271 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 1: me is that it's not necessarily a short term thing. 272 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 1: I mean, you guys write the Thai Airways, which in 273 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:54,840 Speaker 1: that it planned to phase out those double decker Airbus 274 00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:58,360 Speaker 1: A three eighties. They're pulling a return of the A 275 00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:01,640 Speaker 1: three eighty, but not until only four Well, part of 276 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:05,400 Speaker 1: it is that a lot of people parked their large airplanes. 277 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 1: They thought they were going to retire them, so they 278 00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:10,840 Speaker 1: parked about in the desert someplace. They've know a lot 279 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:13,160 Speaker 1: of them just have not kept up with the planes, 280 00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 1: and so it takes months for these things to come back, 281 00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:17,480 Speaker 1: and if you really haven't taken care of it, it 282 00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 1: could take you a year because often have to be 283 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:22,560 Speaker 1: refurbished and they're putting in new interiors. A lot of 284 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 1: these planes have not been well kept from the pandemic. Alright, 285 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:29,320 Speaker 1: plane skipping trains, automobiles, the used car market man that 286 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 1: was on fire during the pandemic and right after and 287 00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:34,920 Speaker 1: now it feels like not so much. Yeah, I mean, 288 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 1: used cars were a real sort of boom time during 289 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 1: the pandemic. What happened was that because the new car 290 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:46,960 Speaker 1: business UM was really constrained because of chips, because of 291 00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 1: the shutdowns and auto plants and different parts of the world, 292 00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:54,080 Speaker 1: UM prices went up on new cars because there was 293 00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 1: no you know, there was no supply. And what that 294 00:15:57,160 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 1: meant was a lot of people couldn't afford new cars 295 00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:01,360 Speaker 1: and so they said, okay, I'll buy something on the 296 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 1: US line, and that sent used core prices soaring. The 297 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:08,280 Speaker 1: problem for the used car business now is that in 298 00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:12,400 Speaker 1: the last you know, six months, you know, new cars 299 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 1: have come back. You can get them on the lots again. 300 00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:16,720 Speaker 1: You don't have these long waiting periods, and so the 301 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:20,360 Speaker 1: prices of youth have dropped. And what that means is 302 00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:23,880 Speaker 1: for people like CarMax and for car Vanna, people's business 303 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 1: is heavily skewed toward that. You know, they suddenly are 304 00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 1: you know, they don't have the demand, but also the 305 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 1: values of the cars that they have have in stock 306 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:35,840 Speaker 1: are dropping. It's such a one eight. It's a great story. 307 00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:38,520 Speaker 1: There's more in the magazine and also online. There's also 308 00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:40,840 Speaker 1: another story about Hollywood hoping for a return to the 309 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 1: old normal, so we highly recommend you check it out 310 00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:46,000 Speaker 1: in the new Year Ahead issue. Jim Ellis, thank you 311 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 1: so much, Assistant Managing editor of Bloomberg Business Week. Here 312 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:52,840 Speaker 1: in our interactive broker studio, you're listening and watching Bloomberg 313 00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 1: Business Week. That new issue out on newsstands, online at 314 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:58,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com and always on the Bloomberg terminal. This 315 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:06,119 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Radio. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with 316 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:10,120 Speaker 1: Carol mess Here and Tim Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, 317 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:11,720 Speaker 1: we keep hearing from many of our guests about how 318 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:13,760 Speaker 1: investors need to keep an eye on the bond market 319 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 1: for where the economy, US economy and Fed policy are going. 320 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:20,600 Speaker 1: Bond market trading often like the Fed is getting ready 321 00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:23,439 Speaker 1: to stop raising rates and possibly even dear we say pivot, 322 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:27,679 Speaker 1: meaning cut rates. But monitoring and writing about it all NonStop. 323 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:29,880 Speaker 1: Is our next guest. She's a member of the family. Yeah, 324 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News Chief correspondent for Global macro Markets, Liz McCormick 325 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:36,000 Speaker 1: is back with us. She's Her story today is among 326 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 1: the most rot on the Bloomberg terminal, it taps into 327 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:41,760 Speaker 1: the dreaded FED dot plot and why it's confusing markets. 328 00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:45,200 Speaker 1: Liz joins us via zoom from New York City. Liz 329 00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:48,240 Speaker 1: always good to chat with you, especially when it comes 330 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:51,679 Speaker 1: to everything you know related to dot plots and what 331 00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:53,960 Speaker 1: the Fed is going to do with rates. But what's 332 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:55,960 Speaker 1: the mixed message here or is there not even a 333 00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 1: mixed message? And traders are just kind of like grappling 334 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:03,000 Speaker 1: onto whatever positive news they can. Well, I guess it's 335 00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 1: like they're grappling onto some of the bad news right 336 00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:08,560 Speaker 1: that the economy is slowing down. The good news, I 337 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:11,560 Speaker 1: guess as they think inflation is peaked. But but yeah, 338 00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 1: it's like the FED keeps saying, you know, Craig and 339 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:16,879 Speaker 1: I wrote that story. We're saying, it's like a total 340 00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:19,280 Speaker 1: full court Fed press, like we are not going to 341 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,560 Speaker 1: cut rates. We have more work to do. Look at 342 00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 1: our dot plot, which is they're kind of projections for 343 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 1: rates that show no cuts this year, and the market 344 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 1: just saying, okay, whatever, we're we're doing what we think. 345 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:35,080 Speaker 1: And you know, I mean literally last week in the 346 00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:41,200 Speaker 1: minutes they said we're not going to cut rates totally. 347 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:43,440 Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying it is like a clear full 348 00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:45,639 Speaker 1: court press. But I think you know, that's why I 349 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:47,880 Speaker 1: mean all joking aside. Craig and I've been around maybe 350 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 1: too long, but we thought, you know, we remember I said. 351 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:53,640 Speaker 1: Part of the problem is that the FED officials themselves 352 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:56,639 Speaker 1: in the past have said, I kind of don't focus 353 00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:59,840 Speaker 1: too much on the dots. It's just our forecast. It's 354 00:18:59,880 --> 00:19:03,560 Speaker 1: not a projection for sure policy. And now they keep 355 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:06,040 Speaker 1: you know, of course they're saying things too, but they're 356 00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:08,639 Speaker 1: they're also pointing to like our dot plot is a 357 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:12,040 Speaker 1: good projection of where we're going. Um, So I think 358 00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:14,680 Speaker 1: markets are kind of jaded, like number one, we've heard 359 00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 1: you downplay these before, and number two like all economists. 360 00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:20,640 Speaker 1: But the FED has kind of been really wrong footed 361 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:22,879 Speaker 1: in some of these, not just the projections on the 362 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,960 Speaker 1: dot plants, some of their economic forecast where they saw inflation, 363 00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:29,160 Speaker 1: of course didn't pan out. So I think these investors, 364 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 1: these traders are a little bit like you know, I've 365 00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:34,399 Speaker 1: heard this before. I'm seeing signs that we have a 366 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 1: slowdown coming, I think, and maybe they're wrong to think 367 00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:40,520 Speaker 1: that the FED ultimately is going to have to cater 368 00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:43,600 Speaker 1: to the economy, which is like history. But as you 369 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:46,919 Speaker 1: guys have talked before, if inflation stays too sticky, the 370 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,160 Speaker 1: FED has no choice. They will have to stay high. 371 00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 1: So it's gonna be interesting to see, like we talk 372 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:54,960 Speaker 1: in a six months time, what what's really panned out? Right? 373 00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:58,040 Speaker 1: I feel like Lizzie, like you hit it. There's such 374 00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 1: diversion between what we're hearing from the ED saying they're 375 00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:03,440 Speaker 1: going to do, no doubt about the message, and then 376 00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 1: what you see plays ob certainly in the bond market 377 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:08,600 Speaker 1: they think, you know, the FED is gonna you know, 378 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:10,720 Speaker 1: and I don't know what how much of it is? 379 00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,359 Speaker 1: Like you said, hey, Fed, you've gotten a lot wrong. 380 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 1: We're the bond market. We're figuring this out and it 381 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:20,720 Speaker 1: will be interesting. How much do you think tomorrow's CPI 382 00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:24,639 Speaker 1: report could help the bond you know, could could change 383 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:27,480 Speaker 1: that or be reflected in the bond market about whether 384 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:29,199 Speaker 1: or not there there's more of a buy into the 385 00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:32,879 Speaker 1: FED and what it's saying and the dot plot. Well, 386 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:34,760 Speaker 1: at first, I want to make a joke. I heard 387 00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 1: Doug saying it's the day before cp I. I I was 388 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:41,119 Speaker 1: waiting for like the day day before Christmas exactly. That 389 00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:44,200 Speaker 1: would be more fun. But no, I think I think Carol, 390 00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:47,560 Speaker 1: you're right, cp I, you know, could change this kind 391 00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 1: of I call it the schism between the two. If 392 00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:51,760 Speaker 1: cp I, first of all, if it's it proves a 393 00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:55,440 Speaker 1: surprising strong number, I think the market is going to think, 394 00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 1: oh yeah, maybe the Fed is going to have to 395 00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:00,280 Speaker 1: do what they're saying. So you might see yields pick up. 396 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 1: Maybe we'll see some of that pricing and the derivative market, 397 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,399 Speaker 1: you know, be reduced saying they'll price out the cuts, 398 00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:09,239 Speaker 1: but may they may trim down how much um And 399 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 1: if it's an uber soft number, then maybe the bond 400 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:15,359 Speaker 1: market just doubles down. You know. The Fed officials seem 401 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 1: to be which seems fair if you look at history, 402 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:21,119 Speaker 1: you know, they they've noted pastimes in and like we 403 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:22,960 Speaker 1: all know in the seventies and the eighties when they 404 00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:26,119 Speaker 1: say policy, if it moved to the reverse course too fast, 405 00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:28,199 Speaker 1: they had to come back and do more tightening. So 406 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:31,520 Speaker 1: I think they don't want to make that mistake. Um. 407 00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:33,960 Speaker 1: But in the labor market at you know, as we've 408 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,639 Speaker 1: looked at with payroll last week, wages were down, but 409 00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:38,840 Speaker 1: it hasn't rolled over, and the Fed seems to think 410 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:40,800 Speaker 1: we not that they want to put people out of work, 411 00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:43,320 Speaker 1: but sadly that's part of what's going to have to happen, 412 00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:45,920 Speaker 1: is that we have just too much demand for the 413 00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:48,600 Speaker 1: labor that's out there. So I just think cp I 414 00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:51,920 Speaker 1: may be telling tomorrow, let's see what happens, right, Hey, Liz, 415 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:53,800 Speaker 1: you know, going deeper into the markets, which is what 416 00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:56,520 Speaker 1: we love about you know you're reporting is you understand 417 00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,240 Speaker 1: this market so well. We do it often at you know, 418 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:01,000 Speaker 1: the headline level ale and so and so forth, but 419 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:03,600 Speaker 1: you dig deeper and in your story yours and Craig 420 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:07,160 Speaker 1: tourists as you talk about primary dealers in US treasuries, 421 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:10,679 Speaker 1: you know, and they're making of their official forecast as 422 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 1: a group, they are not pricing in rate cuts. And 423 00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:15,159 Speaker 1: that was a servey by the New York Fed. Right 424 00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:17,840 Speaker 1: is that an important discussion to be having right now 425 00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 1: ahead of CPI. Yeah, I think so, because it's interesting 426 00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:26,040 Speaker 1: and I think it was Matthew Hornback of Morgae Santon 427 00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:29,520 Speaker 1: I've heard him mentioned this as well, that okay, there's 428 00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:31,800 Speaker 1: the market pricing, there's the FED, and then there's a 429 00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:34,359 Speaker 1: lot of forecasts, which you know, a lot of the 430 00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:38,320 Speaker 1: primary dealer economists are also saying no cuts this year, right, 431 00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 1: I mean some are saying cuts by maybe December UM. 432 00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:45,119 Speaker 1: But I think maybe that primary dealer servey that, like 433 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 1: you said, the FED took itself, is maybe giving the 434 00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:50,920 Speaker 1: FED solace to say, you know, because of course, Carol, 435 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:54,919 Speaker 1: there's like optionality into these pricing of derivatives, you know, 436 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,880 Speaker 1: like I guess people aren't doing their job as these 437 00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:00,400 Speaker 1: traders if they're not saying, well, we were hanging out. 438 00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:03,520 Speaker 1: That's how you price these things. Scenario analysis, we could 439 00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:05,840 Speaker 1: end up with a stronger economy, FED has to go further. 440 00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:08,080 Speaker 1: We could end up with the economy totally falls out 441 00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:10,040 Speaker 1: of bed and we have a terrible recession. They cut 442 00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:13,200 Speaker 1: a lot, So some of that is in this pricing. 443 00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:16,280 Speaker 1: But I think that survey does, you know, show that, hey, 444 00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:19,120 Speaker 1: there's a lot of economists that lean on the FED side. 445 00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:22,720 Speaker 1: And that's why I think, honestly, it's a walk card 446 00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:24,560 Speaker 1: to be honest. Before I got out with you guys, 447 00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:27,280 Speaker 1: and I always kind of look at what is Anna 448 00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:33,000 Speaker 1: Wong saying these days. She says the same thing, go 449 00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,640 Speaker 1: to over five percent. I think about five she's got 450 00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:38,440 Speaker 1: three more basis point heights and then she says no 451 00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,399 Speaker 1: cuts this year. So I'm like, okay, annimals on the 452 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:43,960 Speaker 1: FED side. So that's you know, that's a good support 453 00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,280 Speaker 1: for them. Well, first, this is what makes your job fun, 454 00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:48,159 Speaker 1: I'm guessing is that you know, everybody sort of has 455 00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:50,720 Speaker 1: a different idea. But the other part of this, too, Liz, 456 00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:54,359 Speaker 1: is that you know, the FED only knows what we 457 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,520 Speaker 1: know in terms of data, and they've said many times 458 00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,680 Speaker 1: that their data dependent and you know, since the last meeting, 459 00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:04,840 Speaker 1: we got uh jobs report that showed that wage growth 460 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:09,560 Speaker 1: was moderating, and investors certainly latched onto that. But each 461 00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:12,399 Speaker 1: piece of data kind of gives them a different idea 462 00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:14,640 Speaker 1: of what their next move is going to be. And 463 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,080 Speaker 1: and maybe indeed we are seeing some of the core 464 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:20,000 Speaker 1: issues that j. Powell and the FED are concerned about 465 00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:23,879 Speaker 1: starting to alleviate a little bit right, And of course 466 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:27,360 Speaker 1: they they have they should be data pendant, like you said, 467 00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:29,320 Speaker 1: they said they are. And I was talking to someone 468 00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:30,920 Speaker 1: I won't say who yet because I'm trying to write 469 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:33,240 Speaker 1: a story, but a long time investor today and I 470 00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:35,560 Speaker 1: was saying asking him the same thing, do you think 471 00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:37,600 Speaker 1: the FED is going to really do what they're saying, 472 00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,080 Speaker 1: and he said, I think now that's what the FED 473 00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,200 Speaker 1: thinks they're going to do given the data they have, 474 00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:46,280 Speaker 1: and of course if it's six months things changed, they're 475 00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:48,400 Speaker 1: going to have to adjust. So and I think that's 476 00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,560 Speaker 1: why the market that they're like, well, we have to 477 00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,119 Speaker 1: kind of think ahead of you, you know, especially the 478 00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:55,359 Speaker 1: bond market. You know, people always say, hey, look at 479 00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:58,119 Speaker 1: where the long term meals are. That's a signal of 480 00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:01,000 Speaker 1: where investors think the accou to me is going, not 481 00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:03,240 Speaker 1: just where it is right. So long term rates have 482 00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:05,959 Speaker 1: fallen a lot in the last couple of months, and 483 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:08,240 Speaker 1: I think the market is thinking, you know, the curve 484 00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:11,720 Speaker 1: is very inverted that you know, whether you know the 485 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:15,119 Speaker 1: FED cuts sooner or later, that this recession is coming, 486 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,359 Speaker 1: we're gonna have a slowdown, and that this you know, 487 00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:19,680 Speaker 1: they're going to have to pivot eventually this year. So 488 00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:22,440 Speaker 1: again it's gonna be the million dollar question, like does 489 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:26,960 Speaker 1: anyone win? That? Was it? No? No, still a chance 490 00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:30,080 Speaker 1: for us. List, there's still a chance. List just quickly 491 00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:34,119 Speaker 1: about thirty seconds here is it hardest in terms of 492 00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:36,960 Speaker 1: doing FED policy and for the market's the bond market 493 00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:41,000 Speaker 1: to understand it. When the FED is getting ready to stop. 494 00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:44,720 Speaker 1: Well that's what Yeah, a woman, an investor in my 495 00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:46,880 Speaker 1: story said, and I think she's right. I mean, it's 496 00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,720 Speaker 1: the inflection points. And I'm remembering my old calculus or 497 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,000 Speaker 1: whatever I used to know. But you know that even 498 00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:54,600 Speaker 1: for the FED, it's very hard. It's it makes sense 499 00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:56,520 Speaker 1: like when you're on a pivotal change, when you're on 500 00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,119 Speaker 1: a glide path of you know, you're easy easy easing, 501 00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:02,000 Speaker 1: that's like what you're doing, or or the vice versa, 502 00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:04,080 Speaker 1: your tightening like they have been. But I think it's 503 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:07,119 Speaker 1: the it's the inflection points, you know, and and history 504 00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:09,359 Speaker 1: has shown that that's where they kind of fumble a little. 505 00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:10,879 Speaker 1: I would say, you know, to be fair to them, 506 00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:13,200 Speaker 1: A lot of people do. It's you know, people called 507 00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:15,879 Speaker 1: the end of the bond bear market, you know, or 508 00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:18,280 Speaker 1: a bull market years before it ever happened, right, and 509 00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:20,359 Speaker 1: then finally we got your yields go up. So I 510 00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:22,679 Speaker 1: try to be fair, but I think, yeah, history does 511 00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:25,080 Speaker 1: show that they have a kind of worst track record 512 00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:30,040 Speaker 1: at inflection points. Yeah, sorry, FED, Liz, thank you, Thank you. 513 00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:33,200 Speaker 1: Liz McCormick's she's chief correspondent for Global Macro Market's APT 514 00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:36,919 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. Her reporting is always a must read. This 515 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,920 Speaker 1: story by Liz along with Craig tourists and of course 516 00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:42,159 Speaker 1: Liz joining us via zoom from New York City. I mean, 517 00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:44,639 Speaker 1: we'll see what CPI does and how it changes market 518 00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:46,960 Speaker 1: sentiment if it comes in a little hot. I guess 519 00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:49,000 Speaker 1: the point is, like we talked with Abigail though, do 520 00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:51,520 Speaker 1: we look at you know, trend or a month over 521 00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,080 Speaker 1: month or do we have to start thinking about where 522 00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:55,840 Speaker 1: it was a year ago. That's a good point. At 523 00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:59,480 Speaker 1: six point five is the number that's expected year over year, 524 00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:02,679 Speaker 1: um until over a month. Uh, it's supposed to be 525 00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:06,160 Speaker 1: negative one tenth of one percent. Yeah, so interesting. We'll 526 00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:14,960 Speaker 1: certainly know in less than twenty four hours time journal. Yeah, 527 00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:21,600 Speaker 1: but you let me drive? No, no, no, please, ravels. 528 00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:31,000 Speaker 1: I want to drive. It's a good question. Is the 529 00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:37,399 Speaker 1: ride to the closed up on Bluebird Radio? All right, folks, 530 00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:40,600 Speaker 1: just about seventeen minutes left in today's trading session, getting 531 00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:43,160 Speaker 1: ready to wrap up the Wednesday trade US for equities, 532 00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:45,000 Speaker 1: as you heard from Doug, just coming off their highs 533 00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,320 Speaker 1: of the session, Tech leading the way with about a 534 00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:49,720 Speaker 1: one point four percent gain on the Nasdaq one hundred 535 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:53,160 Speaker 1: in yields. Keeping an eye on the treasury trade ahead 536 00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:56,520 Speaker 1: of tomorrow's CPI report, that ten year note still at 537 00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:59,280 Speaker 1: about three fifty four two year note with the yield 538 00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:01,280 Speaker 1: of for twenty one, So curious to see what our 539 00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:03,959 Speaker 1: NEXTUS has to say about where you can find some 540 00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:07,280 Speaker 1: opportunities for that, We turned to Austin Graf, launching his 541 00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:10,199 Speaker 1: own investment management firm late last year. He's founder and 542 00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,960 Speaker 1: a c I O at Opal Capital. Austin joins us 543 00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:15,679 Speaker 1: on the phone from book of Ratana, Florida. Austin, how 544 00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:18,920 Speaker 1: are you good? Thanks? How are you Tim? Yeah, we're 545 00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:21,040 Speaker 1: doing pretty well. Thank you. Um, So, give us an 546 00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:23,119 Speaker 1: idea of what you're seeing when you look out at 547 00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,720 Speaker 1: the markets right now, because investors are certainly optimistic ahead 548 00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:29,520 Speaker 1: of CPI tomorrow. Yeah, it's kind of interesting right now. 549 00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,560 Speaker 1: It seems like kind of in the short term, the 550 00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:36,160 Speaker 1: markets are really swinging with each new economic data point 551 00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:38,480 Speaker 1: that comes out. But we think kind of if you 552 00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:40,760 Speaker 1: zoom out a little bit, the market will end up 553 00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:45,560 Speaker 1: kind of falling in line with fundamentals and valuations. Um. 554 00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:48,280 Speaker 1: So we're not really sure that investors should jump on 555 00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:50,760 Speaker 1: board with some of these kind of rallies in the 556 00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:54,560 Speaker 1: short term, we think they could be kind of kind 557 00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:58,920 Speaker 1: of false starts here. I do wonder, you know, when 558 00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:01,800 Speaker 1: you look at and try to get a handle on 559 00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:03,880 Speaker 1: kind of where we go. I mean, there's a lot 560 00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:05,640 Speaker 1: of questions still up in the air. There's a lot 561 00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:07,920 Speaker 1: of folks saying first half is going to be one way, 562 00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:10,640 Speaker 1: second half is going to be another way. Um. But 563 00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:13,880 Speaker 1: having said that, is there any clear consensus at least 564 00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:16,520 Speaker 1: in your thinking when it comes to an asset class 565 00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:18,600 Speaker 1: that maybe makes a lot of sense. Could it be currencies, 566 00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:20,520 Speaker 1: Could it be uh, I feel like at the equities, 567 00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:23,560 Speaker 1: could be emerging markets. Could it be bonds over equities, 568 00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:27,160 Speaker 1: Could it be going back to, you know, the historical 569 00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:31,840 Speaker 1: play of a balanced portfolio. What is it? Yeah, I 570 00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:34,440 Speaker 1: think it does make sense to have a balanced portfolio, 571 00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:38,000 Speaker 1: just because in the current market where you see kind 572 00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:42,200 Speaker 1: of expectations at two ends of the spectrum, especially if 573 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:45,240 Speaker 1: you look at the interest rate perspective. Right now, you've 574 00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:47,760 Speaker 1: got the market kind of assuming the Fed's going to 575 00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:50,280 Speaker 1: have to lay off and start reducing rights at the 576 00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:52,560 Speaker 1: end of the year, while the Fed's trying to keep 577 00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:56,480 Speaker 1: a relatively hawkish tone. Um. If you're if you're going 578 00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:59,280 Speaker 1: to play one end of the spectrum there and you're wrong, 579 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,760 Speaker 1: it could be pretty painful for investors. So we think, 580 00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:05,560 Speaker 1: you know, the ultimate outcome is likely to be somewhere 581 00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:08,920 Speaker 1: in the middle. So it makes sense to maintain a 582 00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:13,200 Speaker 1: relatively balanced portfolio um and not go too far in 583 00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:16,120 Speaker 1: one direction or the other. Austin, I want to talk 584 00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:18,320 Speaker 1: about some of the companies that you've got your eye 585 00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:22,440 Speaker 1: on right now, because you did say that you know, 586 00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:24,800 Speaker 1: these rallies that we're seeing right now could be false starts. 587 00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:27,360 Speaker 1: Does that mean that, But that still means that you know, 588 00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:30,360 Speaker 1: you should, you know, get into the companies that that 589 00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:32,320 Speaker 1: that you're picking right now, including x On Mobile. You 590 00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:34,320 Speaker 1: still think there's a there's room for x On Mobile 591 00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:37,720 Speaker 1: to run. Yeah, we think that there's still quite a 592 00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:40,480 Speaker 1: bit of opportunity in x On. It's it's a relatively 593 00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:42,840 Speaker 1: high quality name. And you know, I think a lot 594 00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:45,720 Speaker 1: of people are looking at Energy over the last called 595 00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:49,640 Speaker 1: twelve to eighteen months and saying it's run so far already, 596 00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:53,280 Speaker 1: But if you look back five years, Energy is not 597 00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:56,600 Speaker 1: anywhere near where it used to be. The other side 598 00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,480 Speaker 1: of the argument is that you know, we're transitioning to 599 00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:03,520 Speaker 1: a green economy and these companies are no longer going 600 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:06,200 Speaker 1: to be relevant. We just don't think that that's the 601 00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:09,240 Speaker 1: case in the kind of intermediate term. We think over 602 00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:12,200 Speaker 1: the next over decades, you know, that might be, I 603 00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:15,800 Speaker 1: might be the case, but um, between now and you know, 604 00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:18,600 Speaker 1: the next thirty or forty years, we think these energy 605 00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:26,000 Speaker 1: companies are extremely relevant, um with less. That's a long runway. Well, 606 00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:27,520 Speaker 1: if you look at the if you look at the 607 00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:33,440 Speaker 1: demand for oil and the ability for alternatives or renewables 608 00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:37,520 Speaker 1: to offset the the demand that is required for oil, 609 00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:39,880 Speaker 1: it's likely going to take a long time for the 610 00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:43,560 Speaker 1: trend to revert. So we think that the marketabile ahead 611 00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:48,280 Speaker 1: of itself and embedding on some of these renewable opportunities 612 00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:51,600 Speaker 1: at the expense of kind of traditional oil and gas names. 613 00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:55,040 Speaker 1: And we think global economies are I mean, barring a 614 00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:59,360 Speaker 1: dramatic decline and demand, we think, you know, these these 615 00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:02,240 Speaker 1: traditional oil and gas companies are are going to be 616 00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:05,120 Speaker 1: around for a while, and they're also reinvesting in their 617 00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:09,760 Speaker 1: businesses to benefits from some of the new green technology. 618 00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:12,320 Speaker 1: It's just it's not going to be kind of a binary. 619 00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:16,400 Speaker 1: You go from fossil fuels to green. Yeah, we certain that. 620 00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:18,280 Speaker 1: We certainly saw that over the last couple of years, 621 00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:20,040 Speaker 1: Carol and mean we talked about all that all the time, right, 622 00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:22,120 Speaker 1: the idea of an energy transition, and we saw for 623 00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:24,239 Speaker 1: the last two years, and especially over the last year 624 00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,000 Speaker 1: as Russia invaded Ukraine, how reliant the world continues to 625 00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:29,200 Speaker 1: be on fossil fuels. You know, it's so funny. I 626 00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:32,120 Speaker 1: gotta tell you. Austin, Tim and I are looking at 627 00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:33,960 Speaker 1: each other and we're like, do we have enough oil 628 00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:36,240 Speaker 1: for forty years? And I know there are estimates that 629 00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:38,760 Speaker 1: maybe we have fifty years left, give or take a 630 00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:41,560 Speaker 1: little bit. So you're thinking it's a play until the 631 00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:43,640 Speaker 1: very bitter end. Having said that, we're gonna talk about 632 00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:45,680 Speaker 1: climate change later, and I'm just wondering how much more 633 00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:49,920 Speaker 1: pressure that might put on um the energy sector. Metronic, though, 634 00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:53,280 Speaker 1: let's go somewhere else. Metronic is another name that you like. 635 00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:55,640 Speaker 1: It's already up about three percent this year, and I'm 636 00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:57,479 Speaker 1: noticing to a lot of these names that you like, 637 00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:00,560 Speaker 1: you're talking about some dividend yells, which makes it also 638 00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:03,640 Speaker 1: a little bit extra attractive. I mean, Metronics three point 639 00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:07,480 Speaker 1: four percent dividend yield. Yeah, it's a historically high yield 640 00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:12,360 Speaker 1: for Metronic, which is a best in class medical device company. 641 00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:16,560 Speaker 1: They've had some missteps over the last basically since COVID 642 00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:20,120 Speaker 1: took place, with some troubles with product launches. We think 643 00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:23,720 Speaker 1: that's behind them. So currently you can pick up Metronic 644 00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:29,080 Speaker 1: at what is a relatively low operating margin and also 645 00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:34,680 Speaker 1: a relatively low valuation. We think with the the product 646 00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:38,719 Speaker 1: launch issues behind them and China reopening and people turning 647 00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:43,000 Speaker 1: back to elective operations, we think there's there's room for 648 00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:46,480 Speaker 1: Metronic to expand those margins and also benefit from from 649 00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:49,320 Speaker 1: a higher valuation. So we think it's a great time 650 00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:52,120 Speaker 1: to buy a company that's kind of best in class, 651 00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:55,120 Speaker 1: high quality that also has some growth in front of it. 652 00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:57,360 Speaker 1: All right, Austin, we're gonna leave it. They're fun to 653 00:33:57,360 --> 00:34:00,240 Speaker 1: talk some names if you really appreciated. Austin graph under 654 00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:03,560 Speaker 1: in chief investment officer launched his own investment management firm 655 00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:06,560 Speaker 1: late last year. And as we said, uh Faunther and 656 00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:10,240 Speaker 1: c IO of Opal Capital. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg 657 00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:13,920 Speaker 1: Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg 658 00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:16,279 Speaker 1: dot com. You can also Listen to our radio show 659 00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:19,680 Speaker 1: at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, or stream us 660 00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:29,600 Speaker 1: live on YouTube and Bloomberg dot com