1 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene with 2 00:00:13,560 --> 00:00:16,479 Speaker 1: David Gura. Daily we bring you insight from the best 3 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 1: of economics, finance, investment, and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance 4 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and of course 5 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:33,800 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg Neil Ferguson joining us now from our 6 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:36,239 Speaker 1: bureau in London. He's a senior fellow with the Hoover Institution, 7 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 1: with appointments at Harvard chingwah University, and at SICE in 8 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:41,240 Speaker 1: Washington as well. He's the author, as I mentioned, of 9 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:43,239 Speaker 1: The Square and the Tower, Networks and Power from the 10 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:45,240 Speaker 1: Premasons to Facebook. And let's get this out of the 11 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:47,519 Speaker 1: way first, jour Neil. Our colleagues in London lucky to 12 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 1: be able to get their hands on this book early. 13 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 1: It comes out here in January. That's right. Very good week. 14 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:56,880 Speaker 1: We're starting in London and moving to to the US 15 00:00:56,960 --> 00:00:59,319 Speaker 1: after the holiday. Very good. Thanks very much for being 16 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 1: with us. And let me start with something you've written 17 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 1: about the tumult and the change that we've seen here 18 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:05,800 Speaker 1: over the last decade. Right, in less than a decade, 19 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:09,160 Speaker 1: the public sphere in the democratic process has been revolutionized. 20 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 1: Let's use that as a as a jumping off point 21 00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:13,560 Speaker 1: here to talk about what you've observed recently and how 22 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:17,920 Speaker 1: we can extrapolate that to to history more largely. Well, 23 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 1: I think many people are still struggling to grasp the 24 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:25,480 Speaker 1: magnitude of the shift in the public sphere that's occurred. 25 00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 1: A good illustration of this is the statistic that fortent 26 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 1: of Americans today get their news from Facebook, and that 27 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:37,760 Speaker 1: means that, in effect, Facebook is the biggest publisher in 28 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:42,119 Speaker 1: American history, perhaps in world history. Two billion plus people 29 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:46,040 Speaker 1: are monthly uses, at least most of them use it 30 00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 1: much more often than once a month, and this in 31 00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 1: a sense is the biggest and fastest social network in history. 32 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 1: We've gone from as a as a species being roughly 33 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:01,960 Speaker 1: six degrees of separate ration apart any two individuals used 34 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 1: to be able to connect via six steps, and on 35 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 1: Facebook it's now down below four degrees of separation. What 36 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 1: this means, I think, became clear, or at least it 37 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 1: became clear to those of us watching closely last year 38 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:20,080 Speaker 1: when the political process on both sides of the Atlantic 39 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:24,800 Speaker 1: was fundamentally disrupted by these new social networks and the 40 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:28,840 Speaker 1: ways they were used by the Brexit campaign, the Trump campaign, 41 00:02:28,919 --> 00:02:32,960 Speaker 1: and let's not forget Russian intelligence. And now gradually people 42 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 1: are waking up to the fact that something really quite 43 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:38,840 Speaker 1: extraordinary happened and we are trying to work out what 44 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:43,920 Speaker 1: it signifies. How intractable our networks Now in the past, 45 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:47,639 Speaker 1: you see lawmakers in Washington struggling with this very issues, 46 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 1: the executives of these companies struggling with it as well. 47 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:52,880 Speaker 1: Just yesterday there was a report that the attack was 48 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:55,679 Speaker 1: the attack in Las Vegas was was something that was 49 00:02:55,720 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 1: called for by or helped by ISIS. That was dismissed 50 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:01,680 Speaker 1: this fake news a little later in the day. How 51 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 1: intractable our networks generally, And we still don't know if 52 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 1: fake news or not. We know very little, but what 53 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:10,840 Speaker 1: we've got online, what we had in the wake of 54 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 1: the hideous events in Las Vegas was a whole bunch 55 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:18,800 Speaker 1: of fake news, fake identification of the perpetrator, fake attribution 56 00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:22,960 Speaker 1: of political motives, stories that popped up in Facebook and 57 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:28,080 Speaker 1: Google briefly before those uh, those platforms took them down. 58 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:34,360 Speaker 1: I think lawmakers and chief executives in traditional companies are 59 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 1: struggling because in many ways they embody a traditional hierarchical 60 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 1: structure of power. If you go to Washington, d C. 61 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 1: You enter the realm of the administrative state. It's a 62 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 1: hierarchical structure up at the top as the President and 63 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 1: the White House, and then there are all these different 64 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 1: departments and agencies of the federal government. And then according 65 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 1: to the Constitution, there's this thing called Congress. It's a 66 00:03:57,000 --> 00:04:03,800 Speaker 1: very old style eighteenth century constitution plus twentieth century state structure. 67 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 1: And people who are accustomed to what I'll call the 68 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:09,800 Speaker 1: org chart, people who think of themselves as being in 69 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 1: an org chart, are completely thrown by the advents of 70 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:18,479 Speaker 1: distributed networks, which decentralized power in many ways by creating 71 00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:22,040 Speaker 1: a vast network of of users, but in other ways 72 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:24,599 Speaker 1: concentrate power in the hands of the people who own 73 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:27,479 Speaker 1: the network platforms. This is a very new world, but 74 00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 1: and this is a crucial point, it is not an 75 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:33,360 Speaker 1: unprecedented world. When you go to Silicon Valley and I 76 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 1: now live quite near they're being based at Stanford, you'd 77 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:43,040 Speaker 1: think that history simply didn't apply because everything that happened before, Oh, 78 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:45,720 Speaker 1: I don't know, the Google I p O is kind 79 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 1: of prehistory. The Stone Age, and and and it's only 80 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:51,039 Speaker 1: really the last ten or so years the count. But 81 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:53,240 Speaker 1: I've been trying to argue, and that's really the central 82 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:55,720 Speaker 1: theme of the Square and the Tower, that we have 83 00:04:55,960 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 1: seen something a bit like this before, and I compare it. 84 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:02,160 Speaker 1: I compare our age with the age of the printing press, 85 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:06,839 Speaker 1: when the world was transformed by a new distributed technology 86 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 1: printing presses, which allowed ideas, memes to go viral in 87 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 1: a way that we're not familiar with. Okay, so we 88 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 1: had a printing press and networked out for Oiler and 89 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:21,400 Speaker 1: other smart people of Europe that you've written about, Leonard Oiler, 90 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:26,040 Speaker 1: the great mathematician. Are we going to lose our intellectual 91 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 1: integrity with the new networking and the new social media? 92 00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 1: Are we going to be too dumb to read Neil 93 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:36,800 Speaker 1: Ferguson's books? Well, I mean, I hope that people have 94 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 1: to read books out there. I sometimes wonder if if 95 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 1: I'm wasting my time in an age of undred forty characters. 96 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:49,600 Speaker 1: By the way, Twitter increasing it to two characters with 97 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:54,039 Speaker 1: characters is too much. But I do my best using 98 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:58,839 Speaker 1: these network platforms. I use Twitter and Facebook to try 99 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:00,720 Speaker 1: to get the ideas out there, and the hope that 100 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 1: people will say, well, that's interesting. I should go read 101 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:05,680 Speaker 1: the book, or at least by the book. I mean 102 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 1: one one has to be realistic in this day and age. 103 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:10,920 Speaker 1: As long as they buy you know, I can feed 104 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:16,000 Speaker 1: and clothe my children, so to be seriously. The issue here, 105 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:20,400 Speaker 1: I think is that because by and large computer engineers, 106 00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 1: software engineers don't read much history. I don't think Mark 107 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:27,320 Speaker 1: Zuckerberg took a history class when he was Harvard. He 108 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:30,200 Speaker 1: certainly didn't take one of my classes. They tend to 109 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:35,200 Speaker 1: approach the problem with an excessive optimism, and their basic 110 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:39,200 Speaker 1: assumption was if we connect everybody, everything will be awesome. 111 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 1: And I think Mark Zuckerberg sincerely believed that. I think 112 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:46,600 Speaker 1: the founders of Google sincerely believed it. If they'd known 113 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:48,920 Speaker 1: a bit more history, I think they would have been 114 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:51,800 Speaker 1: less surprised to discover that when you connect lots of 115 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 1: people into a giant social network, they don't just sit 116 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 1: around merrily sharing cat videos. They can equally likely share 117 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 1: heading videos, They can equally share complete untruths. And that 118 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:08,279 Speaker 1: the lesson of the period I was talking about earlier, 119 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:12,559 Speaker 1: the sixteen and seventeen centuries, is pretty clear. Martin Luther 120 00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:15,760 Speaker 1: thought five hundred years ago exactly that he was going 121 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 1: to launch a reformation of the Roman Catholic Church that 122 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 1: would greatly improve Western Christendom and create a kind of 123 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 1: priesthood of all believers. St. Peter's vision, everybody reading the 124 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 1: Bible and the vernacular, everybody having a direct relationship to God. 125 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:32,440 Speaker 1: It would all be awesome. What happened, well, of course 126 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 1: there was polarization. Some people agreed with them, others violently disagreed, 127 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 1: and for about a hundred and thirty years Europe was 128 00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 1: torn apart by civil war. And not only that, but 129 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 1: all kinds of crazy ideas went viral through the printing press, like, 130 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:51,480 Speaker 1: for example, witchcraft, and people died hideous deaths in places 131 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:54,480 Speaker 1: like Salem, Massachusetts because of a nutty idea that there 132 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:56,920 Speaker 1: were such things as witches. So I think if we 133 00:07:57,080 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 1: all think a little bit harder about the lessons of 134 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:03,600 Speaker 1: history and frankly of network science, will be a little 135 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 1: less amazed. I mean, I'm very struck by the tone 136 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:09,720 Speaker 1: of shock, horror and Silicon Valley these days. It's like 137 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:13,160 Speaker 1: ge we never thought our platform would be used for 138 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 1: terrible ends. We just assumed everybody was nice, or come on, 139 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 1: I mean, that's really not the lesson of history, is it? 140 00:08:20,160 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 1: We ask you, I know you moved from Harvard to 141 00:08:21,760 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 1: Stanford for recently. Was it was this a motivating factor 142 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 1: you're wanting, you're wanting to engage with this story to 143 00:08:26,800 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 1: think about these issues. Yes, definitely. I mean I think 144 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:34,839 Speaker 1: back now ten or more years to the time I 145 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:39,560 Speaker 1: came to the US, and I was deeply interested in 146 00:08:39,640 --> 00:08:41,839 Speaker 1: what was going on in Wall Street. And I can 147 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:44,600 Speaker 1: remember back in two thousand and six seven saying, you know, 148 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 1: I really think there's a big financial crisis coming. That 149 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 1: seems like the lesson of history for you guys, and 150 00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:51,400 Speaker 1: people would kind of throw bread roles at me, and 151 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:53,600 Speaker 1: it turned out to be true. The ascent of Money 152 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:56,960 Speaker 1: came out. If you remember two thousand and eight, just 153 00:08:57,040 --> 00:08:59,760 Speaker 1: a few weeks before Lehman Brothers went belly up. I 154 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:04,079 Speaker 1: felt the same hunch about what was happening in Silicon Valley. 155 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:07,960 Speaker 1: I was encountering the same kind of ubrus amongst the 156 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 1: masters of big tech that I remember from Wall Street 157 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:14,520 Speaker 1: pre crisis. So I thought, you know what, I need 158 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:16,080 Speaker 1: to get a little closer to the story, because this 159 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 1: is history happening now. David Garrett and Tom Keena in 160 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:20,960 Speaker 1: New York, Neil Ferguson in London. We were talking about 161 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:25,720 Speaker 1: character limits, time limits as well. I apologized and fergusted 162 00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 1: for asking that question so close to a break. I 163 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 1: was asking about the way that Silicon Valley has moved 164 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 1: to Stanford influenced the writing of this book, and Neil, 165 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:33,720 Speaker 1: let me let me pick it up from there and 166 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 1: give you a chance to respond to if I could. 167 00:09:36,040 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 1: How much were you thinking about the software engineers we 168 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 1: were talking about a few moments ago as you wrote 169 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:42,400 Speaker 1: this what you'd like them to to learn about the 170 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 1: role of network theory and networks throughout history. Oh a loss. 171 00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:50,720 Speaker 1: And I was pretty busy over the last year trying 172 00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:54,559 Speaker 1: to meet with people, uh and pick their brains, because 173 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:58,240 Speaker 1: after all, I don't have a computer science background. I 174 00:09:58,280 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 1: was not only frantically reading up on network science, but 175 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 1: also having some fascinating on physic conversations with some of 176 00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 1: the the big names in Silicon Valley and also some 177 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:13,720 Speaker 1: some of the people right at the cutting edge of 178 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:18,800 Speaker 1: things like cryptocurrency, which is, as somebody said, the Internet 179 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 1: of money, and and that new phenomenon, the application of 180 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:27,599 Speaker 1: blockchain to payments, and all kinds of financial transactions is 181 00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 1: the kind of thing that you really kind of need 182 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 1: to go there to to study and understand. Seems to 183 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:36,800 Speaker 1: me that that's a new and exciting frontier in financial 184 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:41,200 Speaker 1: history that my my experience, many people in Wall Street 185 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 1: don't wholly get. I mean, when I hear Jamie Diamond 186 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 1: talking about tulip Mania, that just seems to me like 187 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:50,200 Speaker 1: the wrong analogy for something that will be as profoundly 188 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 1: revolutionary for finance as the Internet has been for social 189 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:58,079 Speaker 1: networks and all the other things that we've grown accustomed 190 00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:00,600 Speaker 1: to using it for. How easily can these two things 191 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:03,800 Speaker 1: go together, hierarchy and networks. I think of the work 192 00:11:03,880 --> 00:11:06,280 Speaker 1: that Stanley mc crystal, retired General Stanley mc crystal has 193 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:09,000 Speaker 1: done bring network theory to bear, trying to teach it 194 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 1: to corporations, the work that he did while he was 195 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:15,600 Speaker 1: in Iraq at leading soldiers there. We've talked to Henry 196 00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:18,160 Speaker 1: Slaughter about her recent book in which she's trying to 197 00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:20,280 Speaker 1: apply this to to any number of fields. Are we 198 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 1: seeing the hierarchy of the the existing power structure embracing network 199 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 1: theory more than it has in the past. Well, I'm 200 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:30,120 Speaker 1: a big fan of stan mc crystal and his autobiography, 201 00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:33,040 Speaker 1: which includes the phrase it takes a network to beat 202 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 1: A network, was one of the sources of inspiration I 203 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:40,439 Speaker 1: drew on in writing the book, because network theory has 204 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 1: some very interesting antecedents in the realm of counter insurgency. 205 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 1: There's a whole chapter in the book where I discussed 206 00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:49,120 Speaker 1: the kind of the history of count insurgency and the 207 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:52,320 Speaker 1: realization that there were certain kinds of warfare that could 208 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:55,319 Speaker 1: only be fought with networks. There is a tension, and 209 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 1: you hit on it with your question between hierarchical structures 210 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 1: of power, whether they're political or corporate, and distributed networks. Now, 211 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 1: to be absolutely pedantic, a hierarchy is just a kind 212 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:10,560 Speaker 1: of network. It's a special kind of network where one 213 00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:14,320 Speaker 1: or a few nodes have control of the network and 214 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 1: all communications, all flows of informational resources have to go 215 00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:21,959 Speaker 1: through them. That that means that we're really talking here 216 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:26,839 Speaker 1: about a tension between hierarchical networks and distributed ones where 217 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 1: power is very decentralized. And I think that tension has 218 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 1: been there throughout history because, if you want to put 219 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:36,920 Speaker 1: it really crudely, hierarchical structures are good for defense and 220 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:40,200 Speaker 1: most of the problems of history are about security, and 221 00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:42,680 Speaker 1: that's why we tend through most of history to see 222 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:46,720 Speaker 1: these hierarchies emerge. Speaking of hierarchies, do you watch Game 223 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:50,319 Speaker 1: of Thrones? I have a confession to make. It will 224 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 1: shock and disappoint, you know, do the only one on 225 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:56,960 Speaker 1: the planet doesn't watch? Well, you know why I don't 226 00:12:57,000 --> 00:12:58,320 Speaker 1: watch it. You know why I don't watch it because 227 00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:01,960 Speaker 1: it's fake history. Actually prefer real Okay, But you know, 228 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:04,000 Speaker 1: if I go back to you, you know, one of 229 00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:07,120 Speaker 1: your great early books, The Pity of War, and you 230 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 1: talk about the myths of militarism. I mean, to be honest, 231 00:13:11,679 --> 00:13:14,359 Speaker 1: you know, with all your different work, it's been wonderful 232 00:13:14,400 --> 00:13:18,520 Speaker 1: as you question almost our mythologies. That's how I get 233 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:22,280 Speaker 1: the Game of Thrones. I mean, where is our mythology 234 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:26,960 Speaker 1: right now? Well? I think one mythology was the mythology 235 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 1: of a wonderful connected world where everybody and everything would 236 00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:33,680 Speaker 1: be connected and that would be awesome. And I'm the 237 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:36,800 Speaker 1: kind of spoil sport who comes along and says that's 238 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:39,920 Speaker 1: not plausible, either on the basis of history or on 239 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 1: the basis of network science, which predicts things like polarization 240 00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:47,720 Speaker 1: and manias that go viral and the incredible inequalities that 241 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:51,640 Speaker 1: most social networks naturally tend to to propagate. So I 242 00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:55,320 Speaker 1: think that's one of those myths, a Silicon Valley myth 243 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:58,839 Speaker 1: that we are seeing being shattered in in real time 244 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:02,080 Speaker 1: as gradually people real lines that g Once everybody's connected, 245 00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:06,000 Speaker 1: it won't be a happy clappy Kumbay economy exactly. I 246 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:08,400 Speaker 1: mean happy That could be the title of your next book, 247 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:11,440 Speaker 1: Happy Clappy Kumbaya. And you know, I gotta I could 248 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:13,360 Speaker 1: go for another you know, I could go for another hour. 249 00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 1: This is great. We look forward to the release of uh, 250 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 1: your new book in the United States, really really important 251 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 1: to see In January, Professor Ferguson at the Hoover Institution, 252 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:27,720 Speaker 1: Stanford University with a modest attachment to a small university 253 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:31,680 Speaker 1: and the river in Boston as well, we should have 254 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 1: talked to him about the mythology of Yankees baseball. You're 255 00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:38,440 Speaker 1: gonna watch tonight? Is there a choice? I'm on, I'm 256 00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:42,720 Speaker 1: a Red Sox fan. What I really want, folks, is 257 00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 1: to see the Red Sox and the Yankees meet for 258 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 1: the American League Pennant, which would be really the World Series. 259 00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:51,000 Speaker 1: But I don't know what the odds are that. I'm 260 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:53,360 Speaker 1: sure that somebody smarter than me knows the odds of 261 00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:58,480 Speaker 1: that occurring. Yes, I'm rooting for Aaron Judge. I'm sorry, 262 00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:12,400 Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg, David. Why don't you bring in our 263 00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:14,920 Speaker 1: extinguished guest here. He's a long dollar, which is a 264 00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:17,080 Speaker 1: big metal because John Dorman joins us now in our 265 00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:19,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven three oh studios. He's the head of Currencies, Commadities, 266 00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 1: and International Rights research at Shape Morgan. Great to see 267 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:25,080 Speaker 1: you here in our studios in New York. And let 268 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:26,840 Speaker 1: me start Tom mentions the interview that he has tomorrow 269 00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 1: with the with the vice chairman, the outgoing vice chairman 270 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:31,240 Speaker 1: of the Federal Reserve. Just give us your sense of 271 00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:35,040 Speaker 1: of what you're watching here. Personnel wise, we talked a lot, 272 00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:37,160 Speaker 1: We have talked a lot about who might replace Janney 273 00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:39,560 Speaker 1: Yellen if the present decides to pick somebody else for 274 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:41,840 Speaker 1: that position going forward. But the vice chair has been 275 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 1: a pivotal role here for this this Federal Reserve. And 276 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:46,680 Speaker 1: I wonder sort of what what you're thinking about the 277 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 1: way the configuration of this Fed Reserve might change. Sure, 278 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:52,480 Speaker 1: there are a few issues so everyone's aware that there's 279 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:56,080 Speaker 1: a lot of turnover at the FED next year. Usually 280 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:59,280 Speaker 1: when there's turnover, the focuses on whether the incoming members 281 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:01,640 Speaker 1: will be hawks or of The decision is slightly more 282 00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 1: complicated this time around, because I have a president who 283 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 1: doesn't always a point people who necessarily have the same 284 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:10,280 Speaker 1: policy expertise as some of the predecessors in those positions, 285 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 1: and so there are questions here not only around whether 286 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:16,360 Speaker 1: the new members of the committee will be hawks or doves, 287 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:18,360 Speaker 1: which is a traditional issue, but there's also the issue 288 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 1: of whether or not there will be professional economists, people 289 00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 1: from Wall Street business people, and depending on the answer 290 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 1: to that, whether they favor more traditional methods of normalizing policy, 291 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:31,600 Speaker 1: lifting the policy rate, or whether they are not fans 292 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:33,200 Speaker 1: at all of the large FED balance sheet. And so 293 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 1: we might see some acceleration of the rolloff. And then 294 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 1: there's kind of a multi year issue around how this 295 00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:42,880 Speaker 1: individual UH might handle the US recession that could come 296 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:44,680 Speaker 1: in a couple of years. So there's there's a lot 297 00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 1: that this person is going to have when they're played, 298 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:47,720 Speaker 1: you know, the first issues around rate normalization and the 299 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:50,280 Speaker 1: subsequent ones around how to handle any downturn in the 300 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:52,880 Speaker 1: economy much later on, they see your belief that now 301 00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:54,800 Speaker 1: that the ball is rolling or about to to get 302 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:58,280 Speaker 1: rolling on normalization, that's going to continue. Momentum is going 303 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 1: to be there. In other ways, what's the likely hood 304 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 1: that the president picked somebody else and he or she 305 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:05,560 Speaker 1: scuttles what cher yelling has decided to implement it or 306 00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:07,959 Speaker 1: telegraphed here. Do you think that we're well on our 307 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:10,600 Speaker 1: way or that stands a chance of changing. I think 308 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:13,600 Speaker 1: of it more as risk factor, so you can, I guess. 309 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:15,320 Speaker 1: I guess the simple way to exceptualize it is to 310 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,200 Speaker 1: say that balance sheet normalization is just another form of tightening. 311 00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:19,760 Speaker 1: It just happens through the long end rather than the 312 00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 1: short end. And if this new uh FED chair thinks 313 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:26,640 Speaker 1: that the U S economy requires more tightening, they might 314 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:29,800 Speaker 1: prefer to do it through faster balance sheet runoff, simply 315 00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 1: because they think that the balance sheet needs to be smaller. 316 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:34,000 Speaker 1: So I think there is an issue around sort of 317 00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:37,480 Speaker 1: tactics and and and the way that policy is is tightened, 318 00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 1: and and that will be a function of who's in 319 00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:40,760 Speaker 1: that seat next year. What did you hear from the 320 00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:44,720 Speaker 1: FED chair in Cleveland last week? Delivered this speech on inflation. 321 00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:47,920 Speaker 1: There was some introspection to it. UH talked about the 322 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:50,199 Speaker 1: way the FED forecasts and and about the FEDS outlook. 323 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:52,200 Speaker 1: Did you hear something different there, a change in tone 324 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:54,919 Speaker 1: or or a willingness to engage with some of the 325 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:58,480 Speaker 1: criticism of the Fed's forecasting. For one, I think she's 326 00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:02,399 Speaker 1: a fairly transparent FED chair in the sense that she 327 00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:05,520 Speaker 1: lays out her model and she acknowledges when that model 328 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:08,359 Speaker 1: is failing. And what I thought was interesting about the 329 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 1: debate is just how how how true to that nature 330 00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 1: she's been, and she's she's admitted with that the FED 331 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:15,760 Speaker 1: doesn't have a lot of confidence in the in the 332 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:18,840 Speaker 1: inflation outlook, and these models are not delivering the expected outcomes, 333 00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:22,159 Speaker 1: particularly on wages. Well, that goes to the desire for 334 00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:25,520 Speaker 1: hard data. So I think Zero had she had a 335 00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:29,800 Speaker 1: great hurt out last night showing this the separation here 336 00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 1: between moods and emotion and beliefs and a hard data. 337 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:36,880 Speaker 1: And I believe other economis that said, we really need 338 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:39,359 Speaker 1: to get a data point that says there's inflation out there. 339 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:41,920 Speaker 1: To be clear, we haven't seen that data point yet, 340 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 1: right correct. What you've seen is some UH rise in 341 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:50,320 Speaker 1: inflation over the past couple of years, but from extremely 342 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:52,840 Speaker 1: low levels into low rates that are still super low. 343 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 1: So I think it is legitimate to say that the 344 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:59,880 Speaker 1: Fed can afford to be patient given that the starting 345 00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:01,920 Speaker 1: point for inflation is so low. I don't know that 346 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:03,600 Speaker 1: that would be there. I don't think that would be 347 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:05,360 Speaker 1: the same message if they were already at their time. 348 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:09,879 Speaker 1: Do they need a single whisper of inflation to act 349 00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:13,200 Speaker 1: in December or critically to act in the next decision 350 00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:18,439 Speaker 1: after December. I think because the the UH level of 351 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 1: rates is still extremely low, they the bars is also 352 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 1: low for a highness. I mean they just see normal 353 00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:28,120 Speaker 1: CPI prints, which are something like point to increases month 354 00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:30,320 Speaker 1: on month. That's all they need to to feel like 355 00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:33,000 Speaker 1: the lead are generally moving their direction, even if it's 356 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:35,480 Speaker 1: not moving quickly. You see my strategy here, David Girl, 357 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 1: I'm asking John Norman all the questions. Stanley Fisher won't 358 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:43,960 Speaker 1: answer my anger out of the way before I meet 359 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:46,920 Speaker 1: with the Vice German. UH. We got this tax form 360 00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:48,840 Speaker 1: proposal last week. I'm eager to get your thoughts on 361 00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:50,879 Speaker 1: on what that means for for the economy generally. We 362 00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:52,879 Speaker 1: were talking with them, someone from the Tax Policy Center 363 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 1: yesterday about the difficulty of forecasting out what it means 364 00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 1: given how little we have at this point, and do 365 00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:00,280 Speaker 1: we have more than we have the past? Went from 366 00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:03,400 Speaker 1: two pages to nine pages here, But what's your sense 367 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:05,560 Speaker 1: from what you've read of it, of what difference it 368 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:08,320 Speaker 1: might make and and and how pivotal moment this is. 369 00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:10,479 Speaker 1: We have the administration, we have Republican members of Congress 370 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:13,160 Speaker 1: saying it's an achievement just to have this on paper, uh, 371 00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:16,119 Speaker 1: and a commitment from from Republican lawmakers at least to 372 00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:18,560 Speaker 1: engage with tax reform. Are we at a pivotal moment 373 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:20,840 Speaker 1: when it comes to tax reform? Do you think and 374 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:23,639 Speaker 1: what role do you see applying here in economic growth? 375 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 1: I think you're at a moment where there's a opportunity 376 00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:30,159 Speaker 1: to transform the economy. It's a different question whether you 377 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:34,200 Speaker 1: think policymakers were actually do something material with that opportunity. 378 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:36,440 Speaker 1: So there's there's two issues here around tax One is 379 00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:39,800 Speaker 1: tax cuts in the other's tax reform, and and Reagan, 380 00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 1: who was sort of the accolyte for both of those movements, 381 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:46,320 Speaker 1: combined both the cuts and the rationalization of the tax system, 382 00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:48,879 Speaker 1: and the result was a boom in the in the U. 383 00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:50,960 Speaker 1: S economy, and so people use that as a template 384 00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:54,480 Speaker 1: for how good things could get without maybe realizing that 385 00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:57,040 Speaker 1: what was proposed last week was simply tax cuts, not 386 00:20:57,040 --> 00:20:59,959 Speaker 1: not reformed. No, there's no discussion around what deductions are 387 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:03,880 Speaker 1: exemptions would be altered in order to both finance tax 388 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:07,600 Speaker 1: cuts and and also redistribute capital across the US economy. 389 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:09,879 Speaker 1: So it seems to me they're going for kind of 390 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:13,240 Speaker 1: half of what they should go for. And unfortunately, given 391 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:17,359 Speaker 1: the philosophical divide in the House and Senate um that uh, 392 00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:19,200 Speaker 1: they're not going to be able to square the circle 393 00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,960 Speaker 1: and towards in terms of getting through even the ambitious 394 00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:25,359 Speaker 1: tax cuts, because the financing element is what's Kasman and 395 00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 1: companies say it's not gonna Did I just hear you 396 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:29,480 Speaker 1: say you don't think it's gonna happen. We don't think 397 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:32,320 Speaker 1: it's gonna happen nearly on the scale that was proposed 398 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:34,920 Speaker 1: last week. So the forecast from the economics team, which 399 00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:38,680 Speaker 1: is Kasman and that you'll get maybe a hundred billion 400 00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:42,440 Speaker 1: of tax cuts, so a trillion over a year. That's 401 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:44,600 Speaker 1: maybe going to add a quarter point to GDP. That's 402 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:46,720 Speaker 1: what we that's why we don't consider that material. I 403 00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:51,159 Speaker 1: think doubling that quantum would be material because it impact 404 00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:54,000 Speaker 1: your FED view and we like to give historical perspective. 405 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:59,359 Speaker 1: Or David Gura mr Feroli wrote original research on the 406 00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:04,639 Speaker 1: decline potential GDP umpteen years ago for JP Morgan and 407 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:08,040 Speaker 1: people said, Michael, really, have a cup of coffee, Michael, 408 00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:10,560 Speaker 1: I mean, come on, he got a personal visit from 409 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:14,240 Speaker 1: James Diamond. Diamond was so upset and Michael was dead 410 00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 1: on right, I mean just stunning, like dead on about 411 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 1: the lessening of nominal and real GDP is measured by 412 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:25,680 Speaker 1: potential GDP. Does this have any market influence on the dollar. 413 00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:28,200 Speaker 1: Just the discussion about tax policy and what may or 414 00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:31,760 Speaker 1: may not happen here, absolutely, because there's if you get 415 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:35,160 Speaker 1: material tax cuts, meaning something that lives the economy more 416 00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:38,240 Speaker 1: than half a point. I think it's a slam dunk 417 00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 1: that you're getting the FED hiking in December and three 418 00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 1: times next year, and you may even get more than that. 419 00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:47,119 Speaker 1: So the FED, I think when it gave that guidance 420 00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:50,840 Speaker 1: on raids, wasn't factoring in anything meaningful from Washington because 421 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:53,280 Speaker 1: it was still early days. So they're thinking on the 422 00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:58,000 Speaker 1: appropriate policy setting would change. If the fiscal response out 423 00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,920 Speaker 1: of the Trump administration changed as well, that is gonna 424 00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:03,119 Speaker 1: be a big influence on the dollar because it means 425 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:04,919 Speaker 1: that the Fed is going to be hiking more than 426 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:06,480 Speaker 1: anybody else. You know, right now we have kind of 427 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:09,320 Speaker 1: a short term positive view, medium term negative view on 428 00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:11,120 Speaker 1: the dollar because we just think that as the Fed moves, 429 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:13,040 Speaker 1: other central banks are gonna be in that mix as well. 430 00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:15,919 Speaker 1: But if you got a lot of fiscal stimuluts out 431 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:17,640 Speaker 1: of States, it would be the Fed leading the pack, 432 00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 1: and that to me is dollar bullish. There you go. 433 00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 1: News to you, Tom No, Yeah, I put it on 434 00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,720 Speaker 1: I put it on Twitter earlier. I think these are, 435 00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:29,120 Speaker 1: you know, important conversations. We're gonna come back with John 436 00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:31,560 Speaker 1: Norman a good briefing here at the beginning of the 437 00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:34,000 Speaker 1: fourth quarter. I don't know where the year went. Days 438 00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:37,000 Speaker 1: you in charge of that as well, and don't come 439 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,159 Speaker 1: back with John Norman of JP Morgan find other themes 440 00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:42,919 Speaker 1: to speak about, particularly in the Maybe we'll do it, 441 00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:45,080 Speaker 1: should we do a little look like we're cf a 442 00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:48,479 Speaker 1: block or state general. I'll let you know you know 443 00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:50,320 Speaker 1: where I'll fall on that one. John More great to 444 00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,040 Speaker 1: have you with us here again. Gohn Norman, head of Currencies, 445 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:55,080 Speaker 1: Commandies and International Rates Research at JP Morgan I here 446 00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:58,439 Speaker 1: with us in New York, removed from his base in London. 447 00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:00,760 Speaker 1: Let's talk a bit about Brexon. You've been observing there 448 00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:02,639 Speaker 1: when it comes to currencies, the effect that the Brexit 449 00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:04,760 Speaker 1: process has had on the pound and the euro and 450 00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:08,159 Speaker 1: um where you see clarity. We we follow the parlor 451 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:10,480 Speaker 1: game in the back and forth and the in fighting 452 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:12,800 Speaker 1: among this. The government in the UK, what are you 453 00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:14,239 Speaker 1: listening for? Do you do? You do? You have some 454 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,320 Speaker 1: optimism here that the issue of trade in particular is 455 00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:18,159 Speaker 1: going to be hammered out here, that we're seeing progress 456 00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 1: being made in Brussels. I am optimistic that the current 457 00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:26,600 Speaker 1: UK government understands that there is no such thing as 458 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:31,919 Speaker 1: free market access without accepting some restrictions on labor labor mobility. 459 00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:34,480 Speaker 1: And because they're coming to that realization, that come to 460 00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:38,080 Speaker 1: that realization, they've agreed this. They proposed this two year 461 00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:41,000 Speaker 1: transitional period, which means you don't have this very abrupt 462 00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:44,720 Speaker 1: change in the operating environment for for corporates when March 463 00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:47,879 Speaker 1: rolls around. So that's the good news around Brexit. They 464 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 1: seem to be going soft and and sort of walking 465 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:53,959 Speaker 1: back from these originally very strident demands that they were 466 00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:56,160 Speaker 1: making of the of the Europeans. That's good for the economy, 467 00:24:56,480 --> 00:25:00,760 Speaker 1: positive for sterling. If it's enough certainty to get the 468 00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:03,160 Speaker 1: economy to improve in the Bank of England to lift rates, 469 00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:05,119 Speaker 1: that's kind of the you know, the potted view on it. 470 00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:10,120 Speaker 1: I guess the the issue is, despite this um reduction 471 00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:12,280 Speaker 1: and policy uncertainty, you still have an economy that looks 472 00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:16,119 Speaker 1: pretty uneven, and you've got almost every economy in the 473 00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:18,320 Speaker 1: G ten looking pretty perky. This is why I think 474 00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:20,800 Speaker 1: it's a little bit heroic to get that barish on 475 00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:24,040 Speaker 1: rates in the UK, or that bullish on Sterling relative 476 00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:25,800 Speaker 1: to some other bond markets or other currency. Do you 477 00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,640 Speaker 1: see a bull trend with Sterling in particular? I think 478 00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:31,120 Speaker 1: trend if you're in point on, this is two years 479 00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:33,320 Speaker 1: from now. I don't think trend if you're in point on, 480 00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,320 Speaker 1: this is three months from now. Well within this is 481 00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:38,920 Speaker 1: I guess the Matthew and theory and white people John 482 00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:42,879 Speaker 1: are riveted to your research at JP Morgan. It's minute detail, folks, 483 00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:46,560 Speaker 1: it's really pro adult. Don't read this at home, and 484 00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:51,800 Speaker 1: the pro research is centered around vectors or physics dynamics 485 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:55,000 Speaker 1: that are smooth and have this thing that we call 486 00:25:55,080 --> 00:26:00,560 Speaker 1: a glide path versus abrupt stochastics or jump conditions, which 487 00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:04,879 Speaker 1: is a shock, almost an exogenous outside shock. Are we 488 00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:09,000 Speaker 1: in a system now fragility that brings us to jump 489 00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:11,960 Speaker 1: conditions or do you have a confidence, as any public 490 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:15,159 Speaker 1: official would have, that oh, we can maintain light pass. 491 00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:18,760 Speaker 1: I think if you look at current conditions, you should 492 00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:22,000 Speaker 1: feel pretty comfortable with the volatility environment because you have 493 00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:26,200 Speaker 1: stable growth in almost every country, have the best performance 494 00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:28,800 Speaker 1: on a global basis in in two or three years, 495 00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:32,399 Speaker 1: you have great normalization at a super slow pace, and 496 00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:34,720 Speaker 1: you don't have much inflation to get central banks to 497 00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:37,200 Speaker 1: pick up the pace. I guess where you should be worried. 498 00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:42,280 Speaker 1: It's just recognizing that these ideal conditions are not permanent. 499 00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:44,639 Speaker 1: They've never been permanent in any business cycle. And the 500 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:48,200 Speaker 1: older the business cycle gets, the more the underlying fragilities build, 501 00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:50,959 Speaker 1: either too much debt and some part of the economy 502 00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:53,720 Speaker 1: or or too much inflation pressure. And so that's kind 503 00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:55,479 Speaker 1: of what you have to be on guard for over 504 00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:58,119 Speaker 1: the next couple of years. That the inflation pressures at 505 00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:02,359 Speaker 1: some point emerge. This causes central banks to quicken the 506 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:06,399 Speaker 1: pace the tightening, and that causes corporates in particular to 507 00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:10,560 Speaker 1: reduce their activity because corporates are the the leverage sector 508 00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:12,479 Speaker 1: in the global economy right now, our US corporates are 509 00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:15,919 Speaker 1: within that is Newtonian mechanics of a rate of change 510 00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:18,560 Speaker 1: and a rative change of the rate of change of inflation. 511 00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:23,000 Speaker 1: To be clear, we don't even have the series increasing. 512 00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:26,000 Speaker 1: I mean, forget about the first or second derivatives. We 513 00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:30,719 Speaker 1: don't have the thing inflation going up right correct, It's 514 00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:35,280 Speaker 1: it's very modest rates of change. So there's nothing to 515 00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:37,880 Speaker 1: worry about there. But that doesn't mean there's no underlying 516 00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:41,040 Speaker 1: imbalance in the economy. If you, if you, I think 517 00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,480 Speaker 1: the only reason people are comfortable with low inflation is 518 00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:46,160 Speaker 1: because no central bank has an objective to to watch 519 00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:48,800 Speaker 1: asset prices. So if you, if you kind of widen 520 00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:51,359 Speaker 1: the lens and think about what prices have responded to 521 00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:53,720 Speaker 1: the easy money environment, it's it's asset prices, and people 522 00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:56,600 Speaker 1: have a lot of concerns about valuations and whether or 523 00:27:56,640 --> 00:28:00,240 Speaker 1: not what's embedded into equities for earnings grow. It is 524 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:02,760 Speaker 1: really going to be delivered whether or not the low 525 00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:06,520 Speaker 1: level of interest rates is consistent with how inflation might 526 00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:08,880 Speaker 1: be in two or three years time. So it's only 527 00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:11,440 Speaker 1: because you know, central bankers have a very narrow focus 528 00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,240 Speaker 1: that people are kind of content right now. One final question, 529 00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:17,680 Speaker 1: very quickly, what do you watch is your key inflation indicators? 530 00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:20,640 Speaker 1: And five year? Five years? Is it some other mystical 531 00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:23,439 Speaker 1: chemistry off the Bloomberg? What's the thing you watch? It's 532 00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:25,399 Speaker 1: no one thing, it's a few things. Yeah, I know, 533 00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:27,679 Speaker 1: come on, you sound like a derivative guy. What's the 534 00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:30,440 Speaker 1: one thing that you look at? To me, the most 535 00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:35,040 Speaker 1: important part of the puzzle puzzles wages. Wages interesting because 536 00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:38,960 Speaker 1: that's the part of the of the framework that we 537 00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:42,240 Speaker 1: should be firscerned about when labor markets are tight and 538 00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:44,960 Speaker 1: they're not moving. That's a terrific insight, folks. One of 539 00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:48,560 Speaker 1: the giants of derivative and economics and placing it into 540 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:51,440 Speaker 1: tactical investments tells you you've got to go back to 541 00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:54,080 Speaker 1: core economics to find out where we go. John Norman, 542 00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:57,720 Speaker 1: thank you so much. With JP Morgan Chase, this is Bloomberg, 543 00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:12,280 Speaker 1: Tavi Gara and Tom Keane here in New York Bloomberg 544 00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:15,480 Speaker 1: Surveillance on Bloomberg Radio. In just a few moments, Richard 545 00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:17,360 Speaker 1: Smith is going to make a long, lonely walk through 546 00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:19,760 Speaker 1: the marble corridors of the Rayburn House office building. He's 547 00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:22,120 Speaker 1: going to testify a little bit later today before the U. S. 548 00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:25,760 Speaker 1: House Committee on Energy and Commerces Subcommittee on Digital Commerce 549 00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:29,040 Speaker 1: and Consumer Protection. He was until very recently the chairman 550 00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:31,360 Speaker 1: and CEO of Equifax, of course, that company involved in 551 00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:34,040 Speaker 1: a massive data breach, more than a hundred forty million 552 00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:37,200 Speaker 1: Americans affected by that particular breach. The ranking member of 553 00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:40,120 Speaker 1: that subcommittee is Jan Chikowski. She represents the ninth Congressional 554 00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:42,760 Speaker 1: District of Illinois in the U. S. House of Representatives. 555 00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:43,920 Speaker 1: And it's great to have her with us here on 556 00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:45,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance on our phone line. And so I said, 557 00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:47,360 Speaker 1: great to have you with us here. I'm looking at 558 00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:50,120 Speaker 1: the prepared testimony that Mr Smith is scheduled to give. 559 00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:53,960 Speaker 1: Paragraph number two, he apologizes for for what happens. What 560 00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,400 Speaker 1: do you hope to hear from Mr Smith today when 561 00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:59,840 Speaker 1: he testifies before your subcommittee. Well, we're gonna hear apoll 562 00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:03,640 Speaker 1: jeez all over the place. One for what happened. And two, 563 00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:07,719 Speaker 1: because they so mingled the response to that it was 564 00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:13,080 Speaker 1: so incompetent and UH actually dangerous. They sent some of 565 00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:17,160 Speaker 1: the consumers to a fishing site UM where more of 566 00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:21,400 Speaker 1: their data could even be extracted. UM. And and the 567 00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:25,320 Speaker 1: phone lines that we're totally inadequate, people couldn't get through. 568 00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:28,000 Speaker 1: So we're going to hear a lot of apologies. But 569 00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:31,360 Speaker 1: the other thing that we're I think it will be 570 00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:34,520 Speaker 1: impossible for Mr Smith to tell us is what's going 571 00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:37,400 Speaker 1: to happen going forward, because he was really forced to 572 00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:41,360 Speaker 1: resign from the UH the company UM. And so what 573 00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:44,920 Speaker 1: we want to know is actually how our consumers, the 574 00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:48,680 Speaker 1: hundred and forty five million consumers they had up the 575 00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:52,600 Speaker 1: number UM I think it was yesterday day before UM 576 00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:56,640 Speaker 1: that has had their their their data breached UM. And 577 00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:59,680 Speaker 1: you know, I think what this all points out is 578 00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:06,920 Speaker 1: that these credit reporting agencies are are seriously unregulated. These 579 00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:10,320 Speaker 1: are you know, Equifax trades on the on the stock 580 00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:16,200 Speaker 1: exchanges as a for profit private company and without our permission, UM, 581 00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:21,120 Speaker 1: without many consumers and knowledge, they know just about everything 582 00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:25,840 Speaker 1: about us enough that you can't you can't function in 583 00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:30,240 Speaker 1: this UH, in this world anymore. Without giving without their 584 00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:33,000 Speaker 1: having that information, if you want a credit card, if 585 00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,360 Speaker 1: you want the mortgage, if you want to rent an 586 00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:39,600 Speaker 1: apartment or even get a job, they have the information 587 00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:43,600 Speaker 1: that's going to UM about you, that all of these 588 00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:46,479 Speaker 1: people are going to have UM And so you know, 589 00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:50,840 Speaker 1: we we want to UM look forward to what are 590 00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:54,280 Speaker 1: we going to do to add the protections that we 591 00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:57,200 Speaker 1: need in order to make sure that these things don't happen. 592 00:31:57,200 --> 00:31:59,520 Speaker 1: And by the way, this is the third major breach 593 00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:04,520 Speaker 1: at Equifax in the last two years, and so you 594 00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:07,600 Speaker 1: know they have a lot to apologize for and a 595 00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:09,720 Speaker 1: lot of fixing to do. From where you sit, you 596 00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:12,240 Speaker 1: look at a lot of breaches like this, and something 597 00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:14,440 Speaker 1: of concern, I imagine to you is the delay between 598 00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:16,640 Speaker 1: when the company found out about it when Americans learned 599 00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:18,920 Speaker 1: about it. How do you shorten that period of time? 600 00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:22,080 Speaker 1: What what can Congress do to make of the notification 601 00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:25,719 Speaker 1: process more mediate? Well, actually, I've introduced to build this 602 00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:28,600 Speaker 1: week in advance of this hearing, we introduced I should say, 603 00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:32,840 Speaker 1: secure and Protect Americans data And it does three things. One, 604 00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:37,760 Speaker 1: it would create strong data UM security standards. We don't 605 00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:41,680 Speaker 1: really have those kinds of universal standards. It would require 606 00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:46,440 Speaker 1: prompt breach notification, and it would provide relief for victims. 607 00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:48,000 Speaker 1: And by the way, you know, even the city of 608 00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:52,240 Speaker 1: Chicago now has sued Equifax, and attorneys general around the 609 00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:56,600 Speaker 1: country are looking at it, investigating as well as the FBI. 610 00:32:56,760 --> 00:33:01,600 Speaker 1: You know, the space between their allege of the of 611 00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:05,920 Speaker 1: the breach and actually informing consumers. That was a time 612 00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:13,600 Speaker 1: when top management at Equifax UM made UH sold over 613 00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:18,880 Speaker 1: a million dollars in stock that really smells bad. They thought, 614 00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:22,200 Speaker 1: let me give you a reality Congress swimming. They thought 615 00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:26,960 Speaker 1: my daughter was my wife at one point. You know, 616 00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:30,160 Speaker 1: they get they get it all screwed up. The days 617 00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:36,000 Speaker 1: totally all totally all screwed up, um you know, and 618 00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:37,360 Speaker 1: and and what do you and what do you do 619 00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:40,440 Speaker 1: about it? You know, I think that there are a 620 00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:43,880 Speaker 1: lot of Americans who, you know, woke up and thought, 621 00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:50,760 Speaker 1: what is what is Equifax? What are these UH reporting agencies? What? 622 00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:53,800 Speaker 1: Who are they? Why do they have all my information? 623 00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:58,040 Speaker 1: And try and fix something that is wrong on one 624 00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:01,479 Speaker 1: of these sites. And it's really hard to do. As 625 00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:03,640 Speaker 1: we've talked to you before, and we love speaking to you. 626 00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:05,600 Speaker 1: You've been a huge supporter of what I'm gonna call 627 00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:08,960 Speaker 1: the Pelosi Democratic Party. I don't know if you've done 628 00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:12,280 Speaker 1: any couch time as a president has with Senator Schumer 629 00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:17,680 Speaker 1: and Speaker Pelosi. But the prescription that you live every 630 00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:21,120 Speaker 1: day in Chicago and in the Midwest is a prescription 631 00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:25,840 Speaker 1: a further progressive Democratic Party to two thousand eighteen and 632 00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:28,640 Speaker 1: to two thousand twenty. Or do you have to take 633 00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:32,759 Speaker 1: lessons learned from Wisconsin and other states and move more 634 00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:35,879 Speaker 1: to the middle. Which will it be? You know what? 635 00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:42,560 Speaker 1: I think showing up and being respectful and listening are 636 00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:46,120 Speaker 1: things that are the lessons that I learned from the 637 00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:51,239 Speaker 1: last campaign. Not about message, not about policy. But I 638 00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:55,640 Speaker 1: think you know, the cardinals ston of politics is disrespect 639 00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:58,879 Speaker 1: and when people feel that they're not heard, that their 640 00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:03,799 Speaker 1: opinions are not considered, that's when you If you if 641 00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:07,160 Speaker 1: they feel you're disrespected, you can never win their vote. 642 00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:10,080 Speaker 1: I think all Democrats need to do is go out 643 00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:15,080 Speaker 1: and say we are the party that will create the jobs, 644 00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:18,480 Speaker 1: not just talk about them. We are the party that 645 00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:24,040 Speaker 1: wants to protect ordinary consumers in a fair um tax proposal, 646 00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:27,719 Speaker 1: and that we think that the wealthy. You know, we're 647 00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:31,160 Speaker 1: seeing a tax proposal now where eighty percent is going 648 00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:33,520 Speaker 1: to go to a tax relief is going to go 649 00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:37,320 Speaker 1: to the top one percent UM and and so I 650 00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:41,879 Speaker 1: I really think that Democrats just need to go and 651 00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:46,440 Speaker 1: listen and talk to UM Americans all over this country. 652 00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:49,879 Speaker 1: And I think that we can that we can win 653 00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:53,759 Speaker 1: with that kind of very simple showing up strategy. What 654 00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:56,120 Speaker 1: are what are your constituents telling you about this a 655 00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:58,680 Speaker 1: tax form proposal? Surely there are some who are are 656 00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:00,600 Speaker 1: are eager to or would like to see some changes 657 00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:03,160 Speaker 1: to the tax could see it's simplified or changed. Are 658 00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:04,600 Speaker 1: they telling you they'd like to see you have a 659 00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:08,000 Speaker 1: seat at the table? Republicans have at least on paper 660 00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:10,279 Speaker 1: extended in olive branch to Democrats to join them as 661 00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:12,520 Speaker 1: they work on this. Do you have any interest in 662 00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:17,040 Speaker 1: that process whatsoever? Well, I mean, I think that we 663 00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:19,680 Speaker 1: have to take a look at the at the real bill. 664 00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:23,239 Speaker 1: We haven't seen one yet. We have these broad outlines 665 00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:27,880 Speaker 1: that probably are just a feast for lobbyists right now, 666 00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:31,920 Speaker 1: mainly the lobbyists for people that want to protect the 667 00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:36,400 Speaker 1: you know, big business tax cuts. UM. So when we 668 00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:39,719 Speaker 1: see a real proposal, then we can have a conversation 669 00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:44,400 Speaker 1: about it. I'm I'm very open to a conversation about it, 670 00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:47,719 Speaker 1: but I think what what people feel is what we've 671 00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:51,160 Speaker 1: been hearing um and actually the President says it to 672 00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:55,839 Speaker 1: that this is a rigged economy and they're the loosers. Congresswoman, 673 00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:58,640 Speaker 1: one more question. Is it true you're going to see 674 00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:02,960 Speaker 1: Cubs Nash Knows Friday night in Washington and then you're 675 00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:07,160 Speaker 1: also going to see Cubs Nationals Wrigley Field on October nine, Monday? 676 00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:10,000 Speaker 1: Are you going to both games? I am. I am 677 00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:12,480 Speaker 1: not going to be able to actually go to the 678 00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:15,040 Speaker 1: game the game here. I'm going to be home on 679 00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:18,160 Speaker 1: on Friday. I don't know about tickets on on Saturday. 680 00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:20,320 Speaker 1: But you know what, we're going to be in the 681 00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:26,960 Speaker 1: World Series again. Yeah, it's worse than talking to Bill Murray. 682 00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:30,880 Speaker 1: Go away, Caress. Thank you so much, Jan Cherkowsky. This 683 00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:34,920 Speaker 1: is north of Chicago. It's Can we just state that 684 00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:39,719 Speaker 1: it's like arguably the most gorgeous architecture district in America. 685 00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:43,000 Speaker 1: It's isn't like Eviston and it's out the Park Ridge 686 00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:47,399 Speaker 1: where Secretary Clinton went to high school, something like Arlington Heights. Yeah, 687 00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:49,960 Speaker 1: you know better than me. Okay, cho, thank you for 688 00:37:50,040 --> 00:38:00,279 Speaker 1: the ninth Congressional District. Oh the great state of Illinois. Yeah. 689 00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:06,960 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Subscribe and 690 00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:12,440 Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast 691 00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:16,000 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene. David 692 00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:20,200 Speaker 1: Gura is at David Gura. Before the podcast, you can 693 00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:23,359 Speaker 1: always catch US World one. I'm Bloomberg Radio