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Speaker 1: If all your food, he's out there. I'm unwrapping a

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Speaker 1: McDonald's steakagg and cheese bagel. Look at this steak and

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Speaker 1: the juice running down the side. Got a little bit

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Speaker 1: on a rapper here, and then the fluffy egg and

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Speaker 1: real cheese floarted over the side, looking just so good.

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Speaker 1: M M gri old onions and about a bagel. Two

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Speaker 1: thumbs up a McDonald steakagg and cheese bagel for breakfast.

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Speaker 1: Love it up, I participating McDonald's. Mark alprin is around

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Speaker 1: here known best as the co author of Game Change

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Speaker 1: and Doubled Down with John Hyliman Uh. He's been a

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Speaker 1: former senior political analyst for ms NBC. He co hosted

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Speaker 1: The Zoo, The Uh, The Gymnastics of Anthia, the Circus,

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Speaker 1: which is great politics show as well. Uh I kild

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Speaker 1: Um and is a clear eyed and clear headed thinker

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Speaker 1: and write about the writer about politics because four hours

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Speaker 1: imple this is Armstrong and Getty extra large. And Mark

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Speaker 1: Halpern joins us. Now, Hey, Mark, welcome to the show.

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Speaker 1: We look forward to talking to you, and I gotta

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Speaker 1: tell you from from my standpoint, I'm really glad to

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Speaker 1: have you back on the scene. Talking politics a missed voice,

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Speaker 1: in my opinion, very nice. I appreciate that. Thank you.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, the feeling goes for both of us. Long

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Speaker 1: long enjoyed your work. Um, there are so many different

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Speaker 1: directions I could take this, and obviously we want to

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Speaker 1: take talk about the book How to Beat Trump, but

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Speaker 1: just your expertise and all this and some sticks out

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Speaker 1: in my mind going back to you criticized it at

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Speaker 1: the time, you criticize it afterwards, outlets, particularly The New

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Speaker 1: York Times, predicting who could win by how much and

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Speaker 1: whether or not that was the role of journalism. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think Donald Trump has done a lot of things

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Speaker 1: that are rightly criticized, but I think the American media

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Speaker 1: has largely failed to rise the moment of covering this president.

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Speaker 1: A lot of the media acts says things that the

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Speaker 1: Democratic National Committee wouldn't say in in going after the President.

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Speaker 1: I've just never thought that was the role of the press.

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Speaker 1: The role of the press is to inform the public,

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Speaker 1: to tell people what's being said. It's not a matter

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Speaker 1: of false equivalent to as a matter of safeguarding the

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Speaker 1: public interest. I think the most ironic thing about all

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Speaker 1: this is the press helped Trump get elected the first time.

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Speaker 1: And even though a lot of people in the media

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Speaker 1: would like to see Donald Trump not be reelected, as

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Speaker 1: I write about in the book, so much of the

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Speaker 1: coverage is gonna is helping him because it's leaving the

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Speaker 1: impression if you're New York CNN or reader of MSNBC

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Speaker 1: or reader of the New York Times, get the impression

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Speaker 1: that Trump can't possibly win, when in fact, most of

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Speaker 1: the democratic strategies I talked to, who are very smart

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Speaker 1: people who got a lot of experience, say Trump is

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Speaker 1: the favorite to get reelected, and the press is helping

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Speaker 1: him by leaving the impression he can't possibly win, just

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Speaker 1: like they did four years ago. Well, and I think

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Speaker 1: it goes beyond that. I was reading one of the

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Speaker 1: lead articles about the recent impeachment hearing in the New

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Speaker 1: York Times, and it was so clearly it was so

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Speaker 1: soaked in editorial that I think a lot of the

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Speaker 1: uh most respective voices in American journalism have absolutely given

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Speaker 1: up on the idea of I am going to maintain

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Speaker 1: a relationship with moderates or moderate Trump supporters, or those

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Speaker 1: of us will hold our nose and like the judges

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Speaker 1: or whatever, um, I think they've given that away. You

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Speaker 1: just anybody who has any affinity for Trump whatsoever, even

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Speaker 1: nose holding affinity, can't stand a lot of the coverage. Well, look,

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Speaker 1: the conservatives in this country. I've said from the beginning

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Speaker 1: of my career about half the country thinks the press

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Speaker 1: is completely liberally biased, and they've got a lot of

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Speaker 1: the data they can point to. I used to say

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Speaker 1: to my friends in the media, even if you don't

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Speaker 1: think you're liberally biased, you need to understand that half

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Speaker 1: the country thinks you are. And you should look in

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Speaker 1: the mirror and say, well, why do they think that?

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Speaker 1: Are they making it up? Or do they have reason

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Speaker 1: to think of think it. One of the things I

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Speaker 1: read about in the book that I think that I

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Speaker 1: think speaks to the question you just asked, is you

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Speaker 1: have to appreciate that almost have the country voted for

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump, that the consultants I talked to, the strategist

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Speaker 1: I talked to, think he's the favorite to be relected

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Speaker 1: in parts disease and incumbent. And you have to understand

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Speaker 1: those people, those people who voted for Donald Trump, many

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Speaker 1: of them did holding their nose to some extent, but

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Speaker 1: they thought that the country was going in the wrong direction.

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Speaker 1: They didn't want another career politician. And as you said,

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Speaker 1: so much of the coverage of impeachment of aval Trump

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Speaker 1: in general, it is colored by a disdain for his supporters,

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Speaker 1: a disdain for him. But again, I just don't think

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Speaker 1: it's the role for journalists, particularly disdain for Americans almost

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Speaker 1: half the country who still support him. Our job is

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Speaker 1: to explain not just who they are, but what they

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Speaker 1: care about, why they feel the way they do, and

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Speaker 1: not look down our noses at them. And I think

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Speaker 1: I think it's just like I said, it's it's helping

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump, absolutely absolutely. I mean I want to get

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Speaker 1: to the particulars of why you and strategists think Trump

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Speaker 1: is gonna be hard to beat. But well, you're just saying,

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Speaker 1: how does the media not get that they're helping him?

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Speaker 1: They loathe the guy, but the way they approach it.

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Speaker 1: Many times I've been fed up with Trump, where I've

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Speaker 1: thought that the nation would be better off with someone else,

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Speaker 1: And then either Bill Maher will say something. You know,

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Speaker 1: nobody can control what comedians do, but whether it's Bill

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Speaker 1: Maher the Washington Post, not just think fuck you guys,

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Speaker 1: I'm voting for Trump just because I hate y'all. I mean,

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Speaker 1: and that's that happens. That is that is that is

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Speaker 1: a that is a sentiment that I hear whenever I've

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Speaker 1: talked to people who supported the president four years ago,

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Speaker 1: and there's almost no one who supported the president outside

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Speaker 1: his family who couldn't list a bunch of things they

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Speaker 1: don't like about what he does. But when it comes

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Speaker 1: down to a choice between Donald Trump and the Democrats,

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Speaker 1: and when they and they, they're subjected to a daily

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Speaker 1: drumbeat of media coverage which is hostile not just to

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Speaker 1: the president but to his supporters. What he expects going

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Speaker 1: to happen. People are gonna say, you know what, the

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Speaker 1: press doesn't want me to do this again, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: do it again, and that I don't know why the

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Speaker 1: media doesn't see that. Um, they're running, they're running their

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Speaker 1: lives in a way that is counter to what they

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Speaker 1: want more than anything else, just to get donalds up

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Speaker 1: out of the White House. Which is really interesting. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it is. Although you know, this is certainly not under disgust,

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Speaker 1: but I think it's under appreciated. Were based out in

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Speaker 1: northern California and the the ideological bubble phenomenon where you

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Speaker 1: willingly surround yourself only with people who agree with you

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Speaker 1: um as opposed to you know, back when we were

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Speaker 1: growing up, where you might be dimly aware of somebody's politics,

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Speaker 1: but it's unlikely to come up, so you just you

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Speaker 1: always brush up against different opinions and ideologies just because

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Speaker 1: you don't particularly care. Um. The ideological bubble thing is

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Speaker 1: absolutely deadly. You just are never cross examined in your beliefs.

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Speaker 1: But again, you know that's certainly been discussed. So so

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Speaker 1: you talked to strategy, Go ahead, Well, I was gonna

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Speaker 1: say one of the reasons that I was one of

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Speaker 1: the few national reporters who said Trump could win four

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Speaker 1: years ago is because I covered Trump rallies in over

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Speaker 1: twenty five states, and I didn't just stand in the

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Speaker 1: press area and listen to speech and make fun of

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Speaker 1: the way he talked. I talked to the people who

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Speaker 1: were there, and I asked them why they were there,

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Speaker 1: why they supported him, And I looked at how big

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Speaker 1: the crads were, and I went to Hillary Clint events

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Speaker 1: and I did the same thing. And if he did that,

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Speaker 1: it was easy to see that of course Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: would win because he had enthusiasm and they're writing the

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Speaker 1: book he was leading a movement. A lot of liberals

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Speaker 1: in the press mock that and say, oh, it's not

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Speaker 1: a movement. It was a movement. It was a movement

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Speaker 1: that Trump didn't create. It's a movement that he saw

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Speaker 1: and took charge of, and and and and used to

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Speaker 1: get elected. Hillary Clinton did not lead a movement, and

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Speaker 1: and that made the difference. And the same thing could

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Speaker 1: happen in this election. And you talked to a whole

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Speaker 1: bunch of strategists, Republicans and Democrats. People have run campaigns,

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Speaker 1: some of the smartest people in the country on this stuff,

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Speaker 1: and they believe he can win. And why is that?

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Speaker 1: Most of them think he's an overwhelming favorite. Some of

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Speaker 1: them were down right despondent. On the Democratic side, first

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Speaker 1: of all, you go to the question of incumbency. Since

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Speaker 1: four elected incumbents have lost their bids for re election,

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Speaker 1: it's hard to beat any incumbent. And we've had three

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Speaker 1: straight two term presidents, first time since the founding of

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Speaker 1: the Republic. That's happened. Clinton, wish Obama, all of them

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Speaker 1: learned from the previous guy. How do you use the

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Speaker 1: benefits of incumbency. And as we know, Donald Trump will

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Speaker 1: use every every trick in the book. This guy does

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Speaker 1: not want to lose. So incumbents always leveraged the office.

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Speaker 1: Trump will leveraty office. And finally, Trump is a beast

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Speaker 1: of a candidate. You know again, you can you can

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Speaker 1: say he's he's got, he's shallow, you can say it

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Speaker 1: doesn't always tell the truth. A lot of negative things

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Speaker 1: about Donald Trump. He's a beast of a candidate, he

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Speaker 1: does not want to lose, and he's going up a

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Speaker 1: Democratic against end up going up against the Democrat who's

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Speaker 1: not gonna have the same amount of money as Donald Trump,

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Speaker 1: who's not gonna have the same experience running nationalist Donald Trump,

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Speaker 1: and is not going to have the leverage of incompacy

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Speaker 1: the way Trump does. So he's got a ton of advantages.

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Speaker 1: And that doesn't even get to the question of the

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Speaker 1: fact that the Democratic candidates have gone so far to

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Speaker 1: the left that that's going to make it more more

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Speaker 1: possible for Donald Trump to get votes in the center,

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Speaker 1: which a lot of people thought he couldn't possibly do.

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Speaker 1: Follow up a little more on him being a beast

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Speaker 1: of a candidate, whether you know at at the podium

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Speaker 1: and a rally on the debate stage. He's he's interesting.

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Speaker 1: You know, even people who hate him follow him on Twitter,

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Speaker 1: watch his rallies, talk about him all the time. One

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Speaker 1: of the people I've interviewed for the books that Trump

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Speaker 1: doesn't dominate the news. Trump is the news. If you

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Speaker 1: want to try to run against him, you need to

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Speaker 1: figure out how to play alongside of him in his space.

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Speaker 1: But don't have the illusion that you're going to do

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Speaker 1: something to to be part of the news. Trump was

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Speaker 1: a television producer. Trump Trump is the most successful person

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Speaker 1: in politics and the history of Twitter. He understands how

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Speaker 1: to communicate with real people. Talk like a real person.

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Speaker 1: I think like a real person. He's like Frank Sinatra,

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Speaker 1: He's like he's like Johnny Carson. He has the capacity

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Speaker 1: to communicate with people in a way that they find entertaining,

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Speaker 1: even if they don't like him. And you look at

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Speaker 1: these democrats, and one of the people interviewed for the

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Speaker 1: books that our candidates are they were all they all

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Speaker 1: took debate class in high school. We need a theater major.

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Speaker 1: We need some who understands how to how to communicate,

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Speaker 1: how to talk from the heart. Trump does that like

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Speaker 1: him or not? These democratics strategists said, he knows how

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Speaker 1: to win. Last time it was Korey Lewandowski, Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: and a Twitter account. This time it's Donald Trump, air

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Speaker 1: Force one and maybe close to two billion dollars. So

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Speaker 1: you harness off a real campaign to a candidate who

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Speaker 1: I think, after Bill Flynn, it's the second most impressive

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Speaker 1: political athlete I've ever covered. And I've said it before

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Speaker 1: and I got heat for it. But look, I think

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Speaker 1: I think it's I think it's it's it's uh, it's

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Speaker 1: people like to these Latin these days. I think it's

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Speaker 1: prima facia true. He won the Republican nomination and the presidency.

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Speaker 1: He had no business winning either. This is a guy

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Speaker 1: who was a Nancy Pelosi Chuck Schumer donor, a guy

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Speaker 1: who was pro choice, a guy who had never run

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Speaker 1: for anything. First time out, he runs and wins. I

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Speaker 1: just think, of course, he's a great political athlete, and

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Speaker 1: Barack Obama is a great as a great politician too,

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Speaker 1: But he he had been touted as as a president

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Speaker 1: since he's been at Harvard Law School. He had David Axelrod,

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Speaker 1: David Plos, He raised a ton of money, He had

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Speaker 1: a real infrastructure of people, county delegates, he had lots

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Speaker 1: of help. Donald Trump did it pretty much all by himself,

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Speaker 1: and now he's got all those same skills with the

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Speaker 1: benefits of incumbency and a big, big death star for

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Speaker 1: presidential campaign. So one of the ways we amuse ourselves

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Speaker 1: primarily off the year, but sometimes on is will speculate

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Speaker 1: about what the debate would look like. Can I realize

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Speaker 1: we're getting way ahead of the book because it kind

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Speaker 1: of moves chronologically, but um on the debate stage, as

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Speaker 1: Trump does what Trump does, I don't know. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Bernie could certainly match him for bluster. Uh we we

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Speaker 1: just we pictured Joe Biden having that moment he had

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Speaker 1: in one of the debates recently where Joe Biden goes

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Speaker 1: off on a venezuela and record players. You know, that's

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Speaker 1: one of his moment and Trump just turned into the

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Speaker 1: audience and saying what the hell was that He'll go

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Speaker 1: in for the kill and people laughing in yeah. Look,

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Speaker 1: it's instructive again to look at four years ago. A

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Speaker 1: lot of the Democrats I talked to you for the

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Speaker 1: book said, after every debate, we said Hillary one, and

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Speaker 1: we slapped ourselves on the back and said, you know,

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Speaker 1: Trump's losing the election right here in these debates. After

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Speaker 1: Trump won, a lot of them went back and looked

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Speaker 1: at the three debates as I did for the book,

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Speaker 1: and you see again he was a strong debater for

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Speaker 1: speaking to real people. He had an unusual style. He

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Speaker 1: was often he often looked angry, um, he often went

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Speaker 1: on tangents, He often didn't answer the question that was asked.

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Speaker 1: But in terms of gut communication, he was. He was effective.

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Speaker 1: And what a lot of people I interviewed said was

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Speaker 1: Hillary was too passive. She she basically thought she had

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Speaker 1: the thing in the bag. She thought, let Trump talk

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Speaker 1: and and show off his his negative sides and people

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Speaker 1: will turn against him. All of them said, You've got

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Speaker 1: to be much more aggressive this time. So these are

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Speaker 1: strategies who are worried about Trump winning. But the point

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Speaker 1: of the book is not an attack on Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: It's it's my reporting of what these democrats say must

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Speaker 1: be done if Democrats are gonna have a chance to

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Speaker 1: And so it's not an anti Trump book or a

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Speaker 1: pro Trump book. It's a book that says what a

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Speaker 1: smart democrats think that need to be done. And in

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Speaker 1: terms of the debate, a lot of them share the

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Speaker 1: view you guys have, which is not very many of

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Speaker 1: these Democrats are easy to envision standing on that stage

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Speaker 1: with Trump and and obviously winning the debates. Do you

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Speaker 1: do you do you play at his level? I mean

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Speaker 1: if he if he says on the stage you ought

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Speaker 1: to be in jail, or you're a liar or whatever,

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Speaker 1: do you do you get down to that level? Do

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Speaker 1: you try to be above it? I mean, what are

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Speaker 1: most strategist thinks to do it? Yeah, I mean that's

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Speaker 1: one of the big questions that people were grappling with

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Speaker 1: after after what Hillary Clinton went through. I mean, if

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Speaker 1: it's basically somewhere in between. You can't let him get

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Speaker 1: away with stuff they say, But you can't play at

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Speaker 1: his level because, as one of them said, Trump is

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Speaker 1: the master at the level he plays on. You're not

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Speaker 1: no one's gonna walk in and do this. You know,

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Speaker 1: most of the people running have run before a lot.

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Speaker 1: You know, they've been career politicians and they know how

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Speaker 1: to run a normal race. They don't know how to

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Speaker 1: run this phrase. So what all these all these people

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Speaker 1: said is not just in the debates, but in the

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Speaker 1: game pay. In general, you have to not play Trump's game.

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Speaker 1: You have to figure out the game you're gonna play.

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Speaker 1: We have to engage with him. He can't just let

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Speaker 1: him gallop off and do what he does. So somewhere

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Speaker 1: in between, engage a little bit and try to pivot

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Speaker 1: to talk about what you want to talk about on

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Speaker 1: the level you want to talk about it. Just as

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Speaker 1: an aside, it occurs to me I had to sell

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Speaker 1: my services as a Trump stand in for debate training.

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Speaker 1: I mean, because I tell you what, you had better

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Speaker 1: be stealed to that sort of thing on a debate stage.

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Speaker 1: I mean because if you think I'll handle it, I'll

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Speaker 1: think on my feet, I'll deal with it. I just

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Speaker 1: it would be a rare, rare brain that could deal

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Speaker 1: with that. Yeah, I mean because as you may never

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Speaker 1: dealt with anything like it. And what the consultants I

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Speaker 1: talked to said was, you can't wait for the debates

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Speaker 1: to start engaging with them. And a lot of them,

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Speaker 1: you know, since the book was published, and and and

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Speaker 1: and the campaign's gone forward, a lot of them say

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Speaker 1: they're all making a mistake. Now they're thinking just about

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Speaker 1: running against the other Democrats. They say, you've got to

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Speaker 1: start practicing about what it's like to go up against him.

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Speaker 1: You look at Elizabeth Warren when she went up against

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Speaker 1: Trump on the Pocahona stuff killed her. It killed her,

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Speaker 1: and and and it's an example for a lot of

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Speaker 1: Democrats to say, not that's how you shouldn't be trying

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Speaker 1: to engage with Trump. You got engaged with him, and

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Speaker 1: you gotta and you gotta win, and you gotta show

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Speaker 1: that you can do and you gotta practice because if

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Speaker 1: you wait till September of next year, when you're on

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Speaker 1: the debate stage with him, you know it, maybe too

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Speaker 1: will be too late. I'll say one more thing. A

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Speaker 1: lot of the people I talked to you for the

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Speaker 1: book said it's possible Trump won't debate. You know, there's

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Speaker 1: nothing in the law that says he has to. And

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Speaker 1: if he thinks he's better off not debating, he may

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Speaker 1: just say I'm skipping him. Oh. I don't know that

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Speaker 1: he would turn down that sort of the super TV extravaganza.

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure if people can talk about it. Here's

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Speaker 1: what he could do, though. You know, the debates for

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Speaker 1: the last many years have been run by this group,

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Speaker 1: the Commission on Presidential debates. Trump hates the Commission on

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Speaker 1: Presidential Bates. He thinks that he they screwed him last time.

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Speaker 1: Trump could basically say, you know what, I'm the president,

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Speaker 1: I'm hosting the debate. I'll show up in debate. Sean

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Speaker 1: Hannity will be the moderator. You'll welcome to come. It's fantastic.

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Speaker 1: I got a question straight out of the book I

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Speaker 1: want to hit you with. But I've been wondering this

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Speaker 1: and since you've you know, you've been on the ground

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Speaker 1: in Iowa New Hampshire and followed all this sort of stuff.

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Speaker 1: Does any precedent matter for anything anymore? Is there any

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Speaker 1: point in looking at, you know, historical trends or which

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Speaker 1: is just everything new loss is new. But I'll tell

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Speaker 1: you Iowa New Hampshire. Every four years people say, well,

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Speaker 1: how can they be as influential as they were in

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Speaker 1: the past. That's so anachronistic. They're they're lily white states,

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Speaker 1: they don't have big cities. I wan to Hampshire are

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Speaker 1: shaping up to be super influential for the Democrats. So

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Speaker 1: that's something that stayed the same. And I think I

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Speaker 1: think another thing is the same is you've got to

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Speaker 1: have a message. You've got to have a story to tell,

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Speaker 1: as as I was saying in the book, an American story.

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Speaker 1: And if you're gonna beat Trump, you gotta have an

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Speaker 1: American story that's better than Trump's story about how you're

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Speaker 1: gonna how the country will be under your under your presidency,

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Speaker 1: if you beat Trump, what will America be like? That

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Speaker 1: hasn't changed. So a lot is different social media, you know,

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Speaker 1: first and foremost in the partisanship, there's a lot that's different.

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Speaker 1: But there are some bedrock things that are the same.

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Speaker 1: And those those two are pretty key. You know, I

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Speaker 1: can't get past what you said, Trump, that's so great.

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Speaker 1: It's Tuesday night, eight o'clock, Madison Square, Garden. Handy's the

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Speaker 1: moderate are. If you want to debate, that's where I am.

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Speaker 1: I'll pay for your stool. You're welcome to common debate me.

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Speaker 1: But that's that's what we're doing. And and and again.

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Speaker 1: If you're the Democrat, what do you do? You either

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Speaker 1: say I got no debate or I play on Trump's terms.

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Speaker 1: So putting aside Joe Biden's uh limitations as a candidate,

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Speaker 1: Um the whole end of the chaos, Fatherly steady, Um

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Speaker 1: mature feel of his candidacy. I think is really good.

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Speaker 1: I think he's a terrible candidate, and I don't think

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Speaker 1: he'll do I don't think he'll get the nomination. But

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Speaker 1: what did your analysts think about that field? Just understanding

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Speaker 1: that even Trump's reporters are getting a little stressed out

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Speaker 1: and getting Trump fatigue. A minority of the people I interviewed,

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Speaker 1: a small minority agreed with you. Most of them said,

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Speaker 1: that's basically what Hillary Clinton did last time. Remember a

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Speaker 1: lot of her advertisements were, uh, you know, kids watching

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Speaker 1: Trump say outrageous things on television and parents being alarmed

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Speaker 1: at the example. He said, that's how she ran. But

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Speaker 1: she she was a crappy candidate. Well but but I mean,

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Speaker 1: if you look at her weaknesses, a lot of the

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Speaker 1: same things are true Abiden, She'd been around forever. Uh people,

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Speaker 1: people didn't you know, who didn't see what their message was,

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Speaker 1: and just saying I'm different than Trump wasn't good enough

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Speaker 1: for her. I don't think it will be good enough

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Speaker 1: for Biden at past nominee. With the majority of them

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Speaker 1: said was the winning messages issues and how Trump's policies

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Speaker 1: are affecting people, And you're starting to see some of

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Speaker 1: the outside groups that are trying to help the candidates.

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Speaker 1: Do this. We just go to Wisconsin, go to Michigan,

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Speaker 1: go to Pennsylvania. Find real people who have stories to

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Speaker 1: tell about how Trump's policy, who voted Trump last time,

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Speaker 1: who say his posities haven't worked for them. Find a

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Speaker 1: farmer to the tariffs. Find them someone who worked in

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Speaker 1: manufacturing who said, you know, I've been found a job

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Speaker 1: in manufacturing after Trump got elected. And make those real

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Speaker 1: people not a sideshow but central to the campaign. That's

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Speaker 1: that's what the vast majority of the strategist I talked

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Speaker 1: to you said will be required to beat him. You

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Speaker 1: can't beat him by saying the guy is outrageous. The

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Speaker 1: guy is on Twitter all the time. He told us

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Speaker 1: what he was when he ran the first time. There's

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Speaker 1: not There's almost nothing Trump's done as president that people

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Speaker 1: consider outrageous that wasn't on offer when he was Trump

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Speaker 1: the candidate. None of this is a surprise to people,

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Speaker 1: so they most of the people say I talked to

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Speaker 1: you said, I don't think you can beat him with

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Speaker 1: his Biden message of restore sanity, restore the America the

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Speaker 1: way it was before, because you know what, We're still

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Speaker 1: in a post Brexit world. There are still a lot

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Speaker 1: of Americans who don't want to go back to the

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Speaker 1: way it was before. They still want change. They don't

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Speaker 1: like the way Trump's doing it in every way. But

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Speaker 1: if it Trump against someone who's for the status quo,

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Speaker 1: a lot of the people I talked to you said,

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Speaker 1: that's that's not a winning message. Wow, you mentioned Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvanian.

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Speaker 1: From reading the book, and I've heard you speak on this,

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Speaker 1: uh uh talking to other people about the book. You

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Speaker 1: feel like candidates are already behind Trump in those battleground

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Speaker 1: states and it's gonna be hard to catch up. Play.

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Speaker 1: This is one of the biggest worries of people I

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Speaker 1: talked to you said. They said, if if the candidates

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Speaker 1: only think about winning the Democratic nomination, and even if

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Speaker 1: they win the nomination, say in March after Super Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: there to the facto nominee. It's too late. Trump has

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00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:41,000
Speaker 1: spent three years with very smart Facebook and other ways

429
00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:45,120
Speaker 1: of targeting the voters in those states. For all your food,

430
00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 1: he is out there. I'm unwrapping a McDonald steak, egg

431
00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:51,800
Speaker 1: and cheese bagel. Look at this steak and the juice

432
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:53,720
Speaker 1: running down the sign. Get a little bit on the

433
00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:58,320
Speaker 1: rapper here, and then the fluffy egg and real cheese

434
00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:02,000
Speaker 1: flowed over the side, looking just so good. M m mmm,

435
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:05,359
Speaker 1: grey old onions and about a bagel too foumbs off

436
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:08,760
Speaker 1: a McDonald steak, egg and cheese bagel for breakfast. Love

437
00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:14,959
Speaker 1: it m more participating McDonald's is a Fisher House. If

438
00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:17,080
Speaker 1: I had a chance to talk to the Fisher family,

439
00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:21,160
Speaker 1: I would start crying because I can't articulate how much

440
00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:24,760
Speaker 1: it meant to us. A Fisher House is to comfort

441
00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,479
Speaker 1: home for military and veteran families to stay in at

442
00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 1: no charge, allowing the family to be together to support

443
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:34,159
Speaker 1: their loved one during a medical crisis. It's enough to

444
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:38,080
Speaker 1: help you thrive through these hard situations. Go to Fisher

445
00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:41,160
Speaker 1: House dot org for more info and how you might help.

446
00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:45,400
Speaker 1: That's Fisher House dot org. Trump's gonna get more votes

447
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,760
Speaker 1: in those states than he got last time. Almost definitely

448
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:50,360
Speaker 1: turn out going to be up. So he's gonna find

449
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:52,760
Speaker 1: people who didn't vote one last time. I take Wisconsin.

450
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 1: One of my favorite statistics. There are six hundred thousand

451
00:21:56,680 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 1: nonpology educated white men in Wisconsin who didn't vote last time.

452
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,040
Speaker 1: Trump campaign is gonna find a lot of those guys

453
00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:06,199
Speaker 1: and get him to vote this time. And if the

454
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:10,480
Speaker 1: Democrat you know, Democrats spend all their time, all their money,

455
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:13,920
Speaker 1: all their focus just thinking about winning the Democrat nomination.

456
00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:16,679
Speaker 1: By the time they get the Democrat nomination, whether it's

457
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,680
Speaker 1: in March or July at the convention, they'll never catch

458
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:23,640
Speaker 1: up to targeting the voters. No statlegrand states, and and

459
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 1: we've we've had in the last few elections cycles very

460
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:30,960
Speaker 1: few states in play, meeting a dozen or so. This time,

461
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,159
Speaker 1: literally the election could could be just those three states.

462
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 1: And Trump only needs to win one of those three

463
00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 1: states if he holds the states he won last time,

464
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:41,439
Speaker 1: in order to get re elected. So it's it's a

465
00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:44,639
Speaker 1: challenge for the Democrats in those three particular states to

466
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:46,800
Speaker 1: try to be ready to go for a general election.

467
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,960
Speaker 1: We heard a lot of discussion in the days leading

468
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 1: up to the last election, um about how Trump had

469
00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 1: no ground game whatsoever. I mean, he had no staff,

470
00:22:56,840 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 1: he had no people. It was laughable. Um, how true

471
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:04,760
Speaker 1: was that? It was entirely true? What they had last time,

472
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:06,960
Speaker 1: which they have this time with more money and more

473
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:10,959
Speaker 1: time to plan, is Facebook and and and Twitter and

474
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:14,520
Speaker 1: the modern methods of a ground game, not not not

475
00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:17,879
Speaker 1: physically on the ground, but communicating people where people get

476
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 1: their news and information. This time they will have both,

477
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 1: and they'll have both in an extraordinarily well funded way.

478
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 1: It is it is laughable what they did last time. Now,

479
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:30,359
Speaker 1: the Republican National Committee last time had a bit of

480
00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 1: a ground game, and they did coordinate with Trump campaign.

481
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:36,480
Speaker 1: But the Trump campaign itself was tiny. There was a

482
00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 1: point in the general election. I don't know if it's

483
00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:40,199
Speaker 1: true by election day, but there's a point in the

484
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:44,360
Speaker 1: general election when Hillary Clinton's staff working on in the

485
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:49,400
Speaker 1: internet was bigger than the entire Trump campaign. And and

486
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:52,480
Speaker 1: Brad Parscale, who was Trump's data guy last time and

487
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 1: kind of a secret weapon, he is in charge of

488
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:56,639
Speaker 1: the whole ball of wax. Now is what do you

489
00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 1: think of him? Pretty capable guy. He is a guy

490
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:03,399
Speaker 1: who has his slaws like all of us too. But

491
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:06,440
Speaker 1: but but he understands how to get along with people,

492
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 1: and he knows what he doesn't know. And one thing

493
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:12,440
Speaker 1: he knows and he has honed is how to communicate,

494
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:14,919
Speaker 1: particularly on Facebook in the digital space. That's what he

495
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:18,160
Speaker 1: did for a living before so so people can make

496
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 1: fun of him for for not knowing you know everything

497
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 1: that Karl Rove knows about politics, but he's learned a lot,

498
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 1: and and and what he's done is and by Trump

499
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:29,119
Speaker 1: choosing him, is they put at the center of the

500
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 1: campaign this notion of now having more time and more

501
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,440
Speaker 1: money by a lot than they did four years ago,

502
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,359
Speaker 1: and figure out how to reach voters, people who voted

503
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:42,800
Speaker 1: last time, persuadable voters. Um they're targeting the African American voters.

504
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:46,199
Speaker 1: If Joe Biden, the democract nominee, African American voters are

505
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:49,080
Speaker 1: going to be bombarded with information about biden support for

506
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 1: the crime bill in the nineties, that that is extraordinarily

507
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,800
Speaker 1: unpopular with a lot of African Americans. And and they'll

508
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 1: be targeting those six hundred thousand white, non college educated

509
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 1: nails in Wisconsin so parstale. If Trump is reelected, the

510
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,199
Speaker 1: decision to put at the center of the campaign a

511
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:07,919
Speaker 1: guy who understands the digital space will be one of

512
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:11,160
Speaker 1: the most important decisions Trump made. The book is How

513
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:13,119
Speaker 1: to Beat Trump is one of the ways to beat Trump.

514
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 1: To portray him as a racist, because that certainly seems

515
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 1: to be popular um, you know, as I said, most

516
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:21,440
Speaker 1: of the people I talked to do not think putting

517
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:25,479
Speaker 1: front and center personal attacks against Trump was the right

518
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 1: way to go. They were much more focused on is

519
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 1: the impact his possies have on real people. But there's

520
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:34,920
Speaker 1: no doubt that both parties have to do two things.

521
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:36,720
Speaker 1: And sometimes people like to say it's one or the other,

522
00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 1: it's always both. They both need to energize their base,

523
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:42,680
Speaker 1: and they need to reach out to persuadable voters, and

524
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 1: and there's it is certainly the case that if Donald

525
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:49,159
Speaker 1: Trump is called a racist by people, it energizes the

526
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:52,119
Speaker 1: Democratic based so so rhetoric like that will certainly be

527
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:54,919
Speaker 1: part of how the Democrats try to win this election,

528
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 1: no matter who they nominate. Anybody has watched a handful

529
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:00,679
Speaker 1: of election cycles as an adult is familiar with the

530
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:03,479
Speaker 1: idea of, um, you know, tacking way left or right

531
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:05,200
Speaker 1: and then coming back to the center for the general.

532
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 1: But has the have the left leaning leaning the lefty

533
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:13,440
Speaker 1: candidates on the Democratic side gone so far left they're

534
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 1: gonna find it hard to tack back. I think it's impossible.

535
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 1: And most of the people who I talked to you

536
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 1: for the book worry about this Uh, you know, just

537
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:27,120
Speaker 1: just there are three issue positions alone that that Elizabeth

538
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:28,879
Speaker 1: Warren and Bernie Sanders have that a lot of the

539
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 1: Democrats I talked to, even some who are very liberal,

540
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:35,679
Speaker 1: think are just qualifying for winning a general election supporting

541
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:38,360
Speaker 1: uh single pair and the elimination of all private health

542
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 1: insurance for a hundred eighty million Americans who have private

543
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 1: health insurance now, be criminalizing the border, saying people can

544
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 1: come in without facing criminal penalties, elite, you know, without

545
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:53,120
Speaker 1: without a legal status, and giving health insurance and health

546
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 1: free healthcare to people who come into this country illegally.

547
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 1: Those three positions alone of the Democrats I talked to,

548
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:02,200
Speaker 1: you said disqualifying. And the Trump campaign knows that. And

549
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:04,960
Speaker 1: I'll tell you you rarely hear Donald Trump talking about

550
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:07,320
Speaker 1: those things. The reason is he's saving it for the

551
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 1: general election. He's showing unusual for him, disciplined in in

552
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:14,480
Speaker 1: in waiting to talk about those things when there is

553
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:17,919
Speaker 1: a Democratic nominee. And that is the biggest worry of

554
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 1: all that the Democrats have, along with not starting soon

555
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 1: enough to think about the general election, which is disqualifying

556
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:28,439
Speaker 1: the Democrats disqualifying. That's a heck of a term, not

557
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 1: just a bump in the road. Disqualified George Bush, disqualified

558
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:34,640
Speaker 1: John Kerry. For a lot of Americans, they made him

559
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:40,679
Speaker 1: a flip flopper. Unacceptable. Barack Obama disqualified uh Vit Romney

560
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 1: by saying he only cared about the rich people in

561
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:47,880
Speaker 1: this country, Baying Capital, et cetera. Bill Clinton disqualified Bob Dole.

562
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 1: You go back and look at those three guys, all

563
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:53,479
Speaker 1: re elected the year before the election, and look at

564
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:55,680
Speaker 1: what the press said about their chances for re election.

565
00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 1: Much grimmer than what people say about Trump, despite Trump's

566
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 1: low approval y UH. One year, one year before the

567
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:07,800
Speaker 1: general election, UH when Obama was running for election, the

568
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:10,879
Speaker 1: New York Times magazine ran a cover story titled is

569
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 1: Obama Toasts and their scientific formula said that Obama's chances

570
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:18,879
Speaker 1: for being reelected were seventeen percent. A year later, he

571
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:23,480
Speaker 1: was overwhelmingly reelected because he disqualified Mitt Romney. Not for everybody,

572
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 1: but for enough people that he was able to get

573
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:27,200
Speaker 1: re elected. And that is the theory of the case

574
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:29,879
Speaker 1: of the Trump campaign. And that is why the Democrats

575
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 1: I talked to for How to Be Trump said he

576
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 1: can only beat Trump if you are strong enough to

577
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:38,120
Speaker 1: survive hundreds of millions of dollars of negative ad Trump's

578
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 1: Twitter feed, Trump's press conferences in which he will try

579
00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 1: to do to the Democrat who has nominated, what he

580
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 1: did to Jeff Bush, what he did to John Kasik,

581
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:48,400
Speaker 1: what he did to Chris Christie, what he did to

582
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton, which is destroyed them politically, physically, whatever it

583
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 1: takes physically mentally. I mean, Trump is the master. You know,

584
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 1: the single greatest skill you can have the president of

585
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 1: Canada is the ability to define your opponent on your terms.

586
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:08,680
Speaker 1: And that is Donald Trump's single greatest skill. How many

587
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 1: persuadables are there in a in a presidential election, and

588
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 1: then especially this one, how many people are you talking

589
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 1: about that could go either way, because you know most

590
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:21,000
Speaker 1: people aren't in that crowd. Well, look, you talk about

591
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,880
Speaker 1: persuadable voters, and normally you're thinking about swing voters, and

592
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 1: there are enough to decide the election, not just the

593
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 1: question are they going to vote for Trump or the Democrat,

594
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 1: but also are they going to vote for the Green

595
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 1: Party candidate? Are they going to vote for the Libertian?

596
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 1: But then I think of persuadable voters in addition as

597
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 1: people who need to be persuaded to vote. People who

598
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:41,720
Speaker 1: didn't vote four years ago for Trump who might vote

599
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,080
Speaker 1: for him this time. People who didn't vote for Hillary

600
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 1: Clinton who voted for Barack Obama. I mean, the number

601
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 1: of people in Wisconsin who voted twice for Barack Obama

602
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 1: and then voted for Donald Trump is extraordinary. Those are

603
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 1: persuadable voters. So, yes, we have fewer than we used to. Yes,

604
00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:00,040
Speaker 1: we are more polarized. Yes, there are a lot of

605
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 1: people who are out of reach for for one party

606
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 1: or the other. But there are plenty of people who

607
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 1: will this this election, who who are up for grabs,

608
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 1: either because you've got to get him to vote or

609
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 1: you got to convince him which side to vote for.

610
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 1: What do you make a mayor? Pete's candidacy really interesting?

611
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 1: You know, Look, there are four candidates right now who

612
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 1: are positioned to be the nominee. We could see somebody

613
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 1: rise up, but right now, therefore people who are leading

614
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 1: the national polls, the state polls in Iowa, New Hampshire.

615
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 1: The other three are in their seventies, Biden and Warren

616
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 1: and Sanders. Uh, he's a young guy, he's a smart guy.

617
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 1: He has he's he has captured the imagination of donors,

618
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 1: both both a very wealthy fat cat donors who write checks,

619
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 1: but also people give small amounts on the internet. He's

620
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 1: a military veteran, which was one of the few in

621
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 1: the field who's got military experience, and he talks about

622
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 1: a new generation. You look at Democrats who have won Obama, Clinton, Kennedy,

623
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 1: these were younger guys. These are people who talked about,

624
00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 1: you know, turning the page on on the leaders of

625
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 1: the past. Now he's got some downsides. He's the mayor

626
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:07,480
Speaker 1: of a town of a hundred thousand people. Um, he's

627
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:10,440
Speaker 1: he is young, he doesn't have very much experience. The

628
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:12,480
Speaker 1: fact that he's gay is a positive for a lot

629
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:14,720
Speaker 1: of people, but a lot of people who have no

630
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 1: personal problem with worry that that would turn off voters

631
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 1: in those in those critical states. So I think that

632
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:23,680
Speaker 1: he is he is. He could easily be the nominee.

633
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 1: I think that he would have a hard time winning

634
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 1: a general election, but it wouldn't be impossible, and I

635
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:31,440
Speaker 1: think that his his His greatest advantage now is, as

636
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:34,560
Speaker 1: I said, he's running against three seventy year olds and

637
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:37,080
Speaker 1: and for for a lot of voters of all ages.

638
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 1: They just don't want to candidate that old. They want

639
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 1: someone who's loose, more future oriented. I'd like to go

640
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:43,920
Speaker 1: through all the candidates actually with you, but we won't

641
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 1: take the up that much of your time because I'm

642
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 1: interested in your opinion. But it's been bubbling up a

643
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,600
Speaker 1: lot lately. I've come across a lot of long articles

644
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:53,960
Speaker 1: and podcasts about bringing back the smoke filled rooms, and

645
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 1: maybe this system is a too much democracy. Maybe we're

646
00:31:57,120 --> 00:31:59,880
Speaker 1: better off when it was about a party platform and

647
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 1: in a picking a person to carry out that platform,

648
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 1: instead of seeing which personality bubbles up and they decide

649
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 1: the platform. Well, it's not gonna happen. So people may

650
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 1: say it might be better, but it's not gonna happen.

651
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 1: Not with that attitude. I'm all for smoke. But the

652
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 1: the Internet has has democrat and social media has democratized

653
00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 1: the process even more than it was before. Parties are

654
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 1: not nearly as powerful as they once was. Trump is

655
00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 1: the ultimate manifestation of this, of just pure personality, no

656
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 1: no history with the Republican Party, no fidelity to the

657
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,880
Speaker 1: Republican Party. And I think I think that's better. I

658
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 1: think the up sides of all this are better than

659
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 1: the downside. But it's still gonna take. If you want

660
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:44,960
Speaker 1: to be the Democratic nominee, you want to be a

661
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 1: Democrat elected president, you still have to you know, you

662
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:49,920
Speaker 1: still have to win the delegates, you still have to

663
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:52,960
Speaker 1: you still have to participate in Democratic caucuses in primary.

664
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:55,800
Speaker 1: So I don't I don't think that the elites are

665
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 1: out of the game entirely, but they are less less

666
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:00,720
Speaker 1: a part of this. And you know, you look at

667
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders not taking money from fat Cat,

668
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 1: not going to UH fundraisers with big donors. Unprecedented to

669
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 1: have two people in a strong position to be the

670
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 1: Democratic nominee who have adopted that posture, that is, that

671
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 1: is a big manifestation about what you're talking about. But

672
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 1: the elites, it's not just in the United States, elites

673
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 1: pretty much all over the democratic world. I have to

674
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 1: get used to the fact that elites aren't in charge

675
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:29,920
Speaker 1: the way they once were. And and it's not going

676
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 1: to go back that howling mob is so good. Mob

677
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:36,800
Speaker 1: mob is in charge and and hopefully hopefully somebody knows

678
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 1: how to organize them. Yeah, no kidding. So, Mark, we

679
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:41,960
Speaker 1: have a tradition at the Armstrong and Getty show that

680
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 1: if you make a prediction, you have to bet a

681
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:47,200
Speaker 1: finger if you're easy to make a prediction, and then

682
00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:49,719
Speaker 1: nobody ever holds you account for it exactly. It's stupid,

683
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 1: it's a waste of time, and you've probably been asked

684
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:54,680
Speaker 1: a thousand, ten thousand times to make a prediction. Um,

685
00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:58,760
Speaker 1: so Aberry said, a bad predictions? What's that? Berry said,

686
00:33:58,760 --> 00:34:01,760
Speaker 1: predictions are difficult to special play about the future. Those

687
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 1: are the worst. Well, I'll say, I'll hit you with

688
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 1: this then, um, you can predict anything you want. Oh no, no,

689
00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:13,279
Speaker 1: here's here's a better idea. If you were offered a

690
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 1: thousand dollar bet on any of the Democratic candidates at

691
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 1: this point, would you throw that thousand dollars down? Or

692
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:23,319
Speaker 1: is it just way too unclear at this point and

693
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:25,719
Speaker 1: you don't don't name any names if you don't want Yeah,

694
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:28,320
Speaker 1: it's it's more unclear than it's been for either party

695
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 1: in my career. I think I think if I had

696
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 1: to pick someone today, would be Elizabeth Warren. But I

697
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:35,359
Speaker 1: don't think she's been tested yet, and I think over

698
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:37,840
Speaker 1: the next couple of months she will be tested, and

699
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 1: I'm based on how she's performed when she's been pressured,

700
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:43,879
Speaker 1: like with her problems with her talking about her Native

701
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 1: American heritage. I'm not sure she'll pass that, and she's

702
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:49,120
Speaker 1: got no chance of winning in a general election. I

703
00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:52,960
Speaker 1: just I can't imagine anybody winning who's for healthcare, free

704
00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 1: health care for illegals. I just can't imagine that winning.

705
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 1: That That is that is of the view of Donald

706
00:34:57,600 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 1: Trump and is the view of Nancy Pelosi. And when

707
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 1: those two agree, generally, I would think it's probably true.

708
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:07,319
Speaker 1: So you're you're right, and and and you've got you know,

709
00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:09,879
Speaker 1: a lot of the leading candidates have that position. So

710
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:12,279
Speaker 1: I don't think it's clear who the nominee will be.

711
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:14,520
Speaker 1: If I had to pick today, i'd say Elizabeth Warren.

712
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 1: But but I don't feel strongly about it. I think

713
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 1: I think, uh, I think Sanders and footage age could

714
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 1: be the nominee. I've been buried down on Biden's candidacy

715
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:26,319
Speaker 1: from the beginning, and nothing I've seen has has caused

716
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:28,279
Speaker 1: me to alter that. He still does well in the

717
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:30,879
Speaker 1: national polls, but I think I think he's more likely

718
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:32,880
Speaker 1: to finish third or fourth or even fifth than I

719
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:34,560
Speaker 1: was than he his first or second. And I think

720
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 1: that will do a lot of damage to his candidacy. Wow,

721
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:39,920
Speaker 1: I'd say, But there there are a lot of crap

722
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:42,719
Speaker 1: political books to get written when the season is hot

723
00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:44,719
Speaker 1: and they know they can sell them. This isn't one

724
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 1: of them. This is really, really a good book. And

725
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:49,839
Speaker 1: I've always really liked your punditry. But we can't let

726
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 1: you go without asking you about Hillary. What's the chance

727
00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 1: she gets in her answer the other day sounded so

728
00:35:57,160 --> 00:36:00,160
Speaker 1: Clinton esque to me. She said, lots of people will

729
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:02,440
Speaker 1: have been asking me, and I'm not going to rule

730
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 1: it out. Not ruling it out now sounds like a

731
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:08,520
Speaker 1: yes to me, she said, And I quote many, many,

732
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:13,920
Speaker 1: many people are pressuring her. Triple many. Yeah. Look, I

733
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 1: was struck by that same thing too. A lot of

734
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 1: times people say, oh, a lot of people are asking

735
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:20,719
Speaker 1: me to run for you know, senator, governor president, and

736
00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:23,640
Speaker 1: they just you know, basically, their their their bookkeeper and

737
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:26,480
Speaker 1: their daughter is asking them to run. She's being at

738
00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:28,400
Speaker 1: She's being asked by a lot of people. It's the

739
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 1: most undercovered story in the in politics today. The panic

740
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 1: that exists in the Democratic Party over the concern that

741
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:39,840
Speaker 1: Sanders are Warren or Boota Gage will be the nominee,

742
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 1: and they'll they'll happen in the blink of an eye,

743
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:43,760
Speaker 1: one of them will win both eye when the answers

744
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:47,719
Speaker 1: say and basically lock things up, and the party will

745
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 1: be in a panic because they don't think that those

746
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:52,960
Speaker 1: people can win. Schumer doesn't think they can win, Pelosi

747
00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 1: doesn't think they can win. So many of the other

748
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 1: the donors, so many of the other elected officials. So

749
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:01,400
Speaker 1: that's why you see Deval Patrick getting in the race.

750
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:03,439
Speaker 1: That's why I see Michael Bloomberg, you know, thinking about

751
00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 1: getting in the race, and that's why people are saying

752
00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:08,920
Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton, Look, you can raise the money. You know

753
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 1: how to do this. You've got more votes in the

754
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 1: popular vote last time you could. You could correct the

755
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:16,240
Speaker 1: mistakes he made in Does she believe her own lines?

756
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:18,359
Speaker 1: Does she believe any of her own lives about it

757
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 1: was stolen by Russia or it's about misogyny. Does she

758
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:23,799
Speaker 1: recognize she's a bad candidate and people don't like her.

759
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 1: She she she, I think she believes all those things.

760
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:29,240
Speaker 1: She knows she's not a great candidate, But I believe

761
00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:30,960
Speaker 1: and I think she had some cause to think so

762
00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 1: that she was hurt by by what Putin did without

763
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 1: a doubt. But but you know, I think, I think

764
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:40,279
Speaker 1: I've said this before. I think that history is going

765
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:43,759
Speaker 1: to show that that what what helped Donald Trump more

766
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 1: than anything else was the decision, the misguided, in some

767
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:50,960
Speaker 1: way selfish decisions that Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden made

768
00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 1: to the Rust side to run for president. Neither of

769
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:56,520
Speaker 1: them should have run. They both they both were such

770
00:37:56,800 --> 00:38:01,279
Speaker 1: obviously manifestly bad presidential candidates. Are Clinton allowed Trump to win,

771
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:03,960
Speaker 1: and Biden, even if he's not the Democratic nominee, he

772
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 1: kept other establishment candidates for getting in the race, allowing

773
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:10,640
Speaker 1: Warren and Sanders and Boutig to rise up. And now

774
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:13,360
Speaker 1: it may be too late for any other establishment candidate

775
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:15,759
Speaker 1: to get into the game, and the party may be

776
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 1: left because because of Joe Biden's decision with somebody who

777
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:21,799
Speaker 1: can't win a general election because of those positions. We

778
00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 1: talked about Joe, you don't have to do this, Barack Obama,

779
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:29,239
Speaker 1: you don't have to do this, and and and he

780
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:31,440
Speaker 1: was talked out of it before. And just look at

781
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:34,160
Speaker 1: his record. I mean, he ran in in in in

782
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight and he got one percent in Iowa,

783
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:43,399
Speaker 1: and he can't paign. He was wet, you know, and

784
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:45,600
Speaker 1: and so yeah, you know, I don't I think I

785
00:38:45,640 --> 00:38:49,480
Speaker 1: think Barack Obama and Bill Clinton agree with what I said.

786
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:53,319
Speaker 1: Namcy Plosi and Chuck Schumer think these guys can't win.

787
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:56,000
Speaker 1: Biden can't win the nomination, and the other three can't

788
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 1: win the general. Wow, and the party is in is

789
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:01,960
Speaker 1: in a huge, huge pickle. I think Biden would have

790
00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 1: the best chance of the foreigner general election, but I'm

791
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:07,040
Speaker 1: not sure he'd win a general election either. Mark Halfred,

792
00:39:07,360 --> 00:39:11,680
Speaker 1: so glad to hear you talking and pontificating and analyzing

793
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:13,360
Speaker 1: and doing what you do the way you do it.

794
00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:15,799
Speaker 1: Really enjoyed the conversation. Yeah, that was great. You guys

795
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:17,400
Speaker 1: are very generous. It's great to talk to you, and

796
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:19,400
Speaker 1: I have a good day. Let's do it again. Thank you.

797
00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:24,160
Speaker 1: So we've got to we're recording this for the podcast.

798
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 1: We gotta air some of this on the show, because

799
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:29,359
Speaker 1: that right there is flipping amazing. And it doesn't mean

800
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:32,560
Speaker 1: he's right, but he's he's as good as analysts as

801
00:39:32,560 --> 00:39:34,799
Speaker 1: there is out there, and he's talking to fifty of

802
00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:36,920
Speaker 1: the best people out there who could also all be wrong.

803
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:41,160
Speaker 1: But anyway, he says Biden can't get the nomination, and

804
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 1: Bill Clinton, Chuck Schumer, Barack Obama, and Nancy Pelosi don't

805
00:39:48,239 --> 00:39:53,399
Speaker 1: think that either Warren Sanders or Buda can win. Right,

806
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:58,320
Speaker 1: That's incredible. That you can win is a complete dud.

807
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 1: That is incredible. Yeah. Yeah, the most underreported story of

808
00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:08,280
Speaker 1: the presidential election cycle. I would agree. I would agree.

809
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:13,640
Speaker 1: I'm not in those circles. Um so I'm not feeling it,

810
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:17,640
Speaker 1: but I can absolutely imagine the panic right now. You know,

811
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 1: if you were a half wit trying to sound like

812
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:24,000
Speaker 1: a smart guy, you might say, well, nobody thought Trump

813
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 1: could win. But it's for different reasons. I mean, the

814
00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:32,680
Speaker 1: Trump himself is tough to take. But his message was

815
00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:39,839
Speaker 1: very heartland sympathetic, very you know, very very traditional American.

816
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:43,359
Speaker 1: People are saying his people are saying his personality couldn't win.

817
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 1: People are really seeing his policies. He wasn't offering a

818
00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:49,640
Speaker 1: policy so radical. People's jaws drop when they hear them. Yeah,

819
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:52,879
Speaker 1: this one is their own party saying these people can't win.

820
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:55,520
Speaker 1: I've been a Democrat my whole life. You can't win

821
00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:58,000
Speaker 1: with this, right, I tell you what I As we

822
00:40:58,040 --> 00:41:02,799
Speaker 1: were discussing um Brad Parscale and and the ads and

823
00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 1: how how Trump is sitting on those radical policies. Not

824
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:08,680
Speaker 1: he's not talking about him much now. He's saving for

825
00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:11,560
Speaker 1: the general. If I'm Brad Parscale, if I'm Donald Trump,

826
00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:13,759
Speaker 1: I just have a loop. I have, you know, half

827
00:41:13,760 --> 00:41:16,680
Speaker 1: a dozen different ads on a loop of this, these

828
00:41:16,719 --> 00:41:23,600
Speaker 1: people advocating those three horrific ideas that he mentioned, the

829
00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:25,960
Speaker 1: the open borders, the health care for illegals, and the

830
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:29,400
Speaker 1: eliminating all private insurance and turning it to government healthcare.

831
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 1: I just run those over and over again. Donald Trump

832
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:34,200
Speaker 1: for President. Then I go play golf at the Raw.

833
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:36,759
Speaker 1: I'm not sure you need to do anything else. Mark

834
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:38,600
Speaker 1: Halpern was the only guy in the set of Morning

835
00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 1: Joe four years ago that would say on a regular basis,

836
00:41:41,560 --> 00:41:43,839
Speaker 1: now I think Trump can win. I think he could win,

837
00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:46,800
Speaker 1: and I'd laugh at him. Look at the New York Times.

838
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:52,760
Speaker 1: It's got to five. Yeah, that's good stuff right there, buddy,

839
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:59,239
Speaker 1: extra large for all your food. He's out there. I'm

840
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:03,279
Speaker 1: unwrapping him McDonald's steak, egg and cheese bagel. Look at

841
00:42:03,320 --> 00:42:06,319
Speaker 1: this steak and the juice running down the side. Got

842
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:09,520
Speaker 1: a little bit on the wrapper here m. And then

843
00:42:09,560 --> 00:42:12,480
Speaker 1: the fluffy egg and real cheese folded over the side,

844
00:42:12,520 --> 00:42:16,799
Speaker 1: looking just so good. M M. Grilled onions and a

845
00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:20,200
Speaker 1: butter bagel too. Thumbs up a McDonald's steakagg and cheese

846
00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:26,239
Speaker 1: bagel for breakfast. Love It, I participate in McDonald's