Speaker 1: Uh, check it down, man now down Man Monday Morning
Speaker 1: except seamed up Beating the Book Podcast Guesting line bleak
Speaker 1: number five in the National Football League, Skill Alexander, Chris
Speaker 1: Andrew's standing by the game that you're supposed to play interactively.
Speaker 1: Do your guesses, figure out what you think the line
Speaker 1: should be, and then what it is. Try to extract
Speaker 1: value from your first salvo into Week five lines. Guesting
Speaker 1: lines attribute to the old Stardust radio show right here
Speaker 1: on Up Beating the Book podcast. Enjoy, it's a numbers
Speaker 1: game with your host, Kill Alexander. You want tunings to
Speaker 1: believe in analys It's good Monday morning to at least
Speaker 1: I oh, it's good for you, Skill Alexander. It is
Speaker 1: a numbers game right here at Visa Series except Channel
Speaker 1: two four, Visa dot Com, the Visa app. Yeah, Week
Speaker 1: four National Football League? What do we know? We know nothing.
Speaker 1: We know nothing about anything in the NFL. Hey, there's
Speaker 1: baseball tomorrow night though, and Wednesday real live baseball is
Speaker 1: October is here. But man, the National Football League, it's
Speaker 1: guessing lines, y'all for Week five in the National Football League.
Speaker 1: We unearthed some value last week, but the real problem
Speaker 1: was after after Week four guessing lines, I said I
Speaker 1: liked way too many things, and I know what that means,
Speaker 1: carnage for most betters. This weekend, let us bring in
Speaker 1: the star of guessing lines from l A Ladies and gentlemen.
Speaker 1: He's the director of the South Point Hotel Casino Sports book.
Speaker 1: I'm sure he's feeling good about himself this morning. It's
Speaker 1: Chrissie Andrews. Good morning, Chrissie. Yeah, we had a pretty
Speaker 1: decent week. You know, pretty decent. No complaints from the bookmakers,
Speaker 1: define pretty decent. If you would, no, thank you, I
Speaker 1: don't want to. It's okay, Bragg. Let's just say every prenny.
Speaker 1: Any bookmaker crying today, really, And I know we're a
Speaker 1: specie and known for crying, but you should really. Uh,
Speaker 1: you're gonna question any bookmaker that's crying this morning. We
Speaker 1: had a hell of a day. Yeah, you bet. You
Speaker 1: probably did road dogs seven and one outright not straight
Speaker 1: up out right? Uh, Philadelphia, going back to Thursday, Caroline
Speaker 1: at Cleveland, Oakland, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, and by the way,
Speaker 1: most of those weren't even close. The Washington Redskins the
Speaker 1: only road dog that didn't didn't come through for better.
Speaker 1: There a whole another story. Uh so that was big,
Speaker 1: by the way, producing number five. Jeff Parls is back
Speaker 1: in with us on Mondays. Good morning to Jeffrey, Good morning.
Speaker 1: It's a it's a it's a pleasure and an honor
Speaker 1: to be back you just you decided to show up
Speaker 1: for this. Huh, well, there were there were a lot
Speaker 1: of things that went into the equation. But I'm here.
Speaker 1: I'm thrilled to be here, and it's uh, this is
Speaker 1: legendary stuff here going on every Monday. Well, we're we're
Speaker 1: thrilled to have you, Chrissie. Um. Let you know, look
Speaker 1: seven it in one road dogs. It's a great week
Speaker 1: for bookmakers, not so good for the books. We're gonna
Speaker 1: talk to you know, all the contests. I'm curious what
Speaker 1: one contest this week? Um. The only thing I got
Speaker 1: right in the end was New Orleans based on our
Speaker 1: guessing lines edges last week. But here's the thing, and
Speaker 1: I'll just start with this macro statement before we get
Speaker 1: to week five guessing lines, and you tell me, you
Speaker 1: tell me if you disagree with this one, take all
Speaker 1: the teams in the NFC and just throw them up
Speaker 1: in the air. Maybe not Washington, right, Like, take a
Speaker 1: team like that out, but all the contenders supposedly throw
Speaker 1: them up in the air, and it's pot luck who
Speaker 1: shows up in the super Bowl. I'm as good with
Speaker 1: my Eagles picked before before the season started as any team.
Speaker 1: And then the other side of that is it's still
Speaker 1: the Patriots in the chiefs in the a f C.
Speaker 1: Let's just play the a f C Championship. Yeah, you know,
Speaker 1: you were talking about the NFC, but I mean, yeah,
Speaker 1: other than the top two in the a f C
Speaker 1: throws all the throw those all up in the air too.
Speaker 1: I mean, this is wide open. And I say this
Speaker 1: every year and and it's comes true just about every year,
Speaker 1: somebody comes out of nowhere to make the playoffs. Now
Speaker 1: that they make the Super Bowl, and not very often,
Speaker 1: but somebody comes out of nowhere to make the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Who's that going to be? I have no idea. I mean,
Speaker 1: it might be the Giants, it might be Tampa Bay.
Speaker 1: Uh you know, it might be somebody like that that's
Speaker 1: completely off our radar at this point. But somebody will
Speaker 1: come out of nowhere, uh in in either one or
Speaker 1: both of those conferences to make the playoffs. So right now,
Speaker 1: take your best guess. It's it's a crapshoot as far
Speaker 1: as uh going forward. Who's gonna wind up being you know,
Speaker 1: maybe not the best team, but the better teams in
Speaker 1: this in this league. The other thing is NFL is
Speaker 1: so humbling, right, So you know, tomorrow night again we'll
Speaker 1: get well, we'll have a baseball segment here in the middle,
Speaker 1: just update what's going on, uh, setting up the postseason.
Speaker 1: But I have it set up at william Hill where
Speaker 1: I have Milwaukee at tend to one Tuesday night in
Speaker 1: the NL Wild Card, and I have the Knats at
Speaker 1: plus one sixty plus one thirty plus one twenty played
Speaker 1: it like a fiddle. The other thing that I had
Speaker 1: at william Hill that I've been so smug about are
Speaker 1: these two Cleveland Browns bets that I have, which is
Speaker 1: Cleveland over eight and a half wins and to to
Speaker 1: miss the playoffs plus one, figuring the only way I
Speaker 1: could lose both is if they win the division at
Speaker 1: eight and eight. Well, you look up and here after
Speaker 1: a quarter of the season, there they are at two
Speaker 1: and two with the Browns the top the uh the NFC.
Speaker 1: So there's that that's fun. Good Lord, and the and
Speaker 1: the entire AFC south to it. So, by the way,
Speaker 1: so Pete rose El's you know, vision of parody has
Speaker 1: been taken to the extreme. Shall we start with Thursday night, Christie,
Speaker 1: let's start there. We can start with Thursday night. Let's
Speaker 1: go with let me find my sheets here? Okay, Rams
Speaker 1: at Seattle, right, Oh, that's pretty good for a Thursday
Speaker 1: that's too. Three and one, Yeah, three and one against
Speaker 1: three and one. The Rams lose to the Buccaneers yesterday. Uh,
Speaker 1: they do so in the highest scoring game of not
Speaker 1: only the day but the year. Fifty five to forty
Speaker 1: mp A. Bay goes into the Rams, by the way,
Speaker 1: not really that close. It got clos ish when Marcus
Speaker 1: Peters picked off a ball in the uh fourth quarter,
Speaker 1: took it to the house, by the way. On a
Speaker 1: day of vicious hits, that hit that he took uh
Speaker 1: from the from the Bucks offensive lineman. I believe it
Speaker 1: was uh Donovan Smith? Was it from the Buccaneers who
Speaker 1: hit him? That was the most vicious hit of the
Speaker 1: day of the day that featured hits from Vante's perfect
Speaker 1: that will get him suspended hit on Josh Allen um, so,
Speaker 1: it was just that was just brutal. I can't believe
Speaker 1: he got up and and and walked off after that.
Speaker 1: But that was the only time the game really got close. Uh.
Speaker 1: Jared Goff filled up a statueet forty five sixty five seventeen,
Speaker 1: two touchdowns but three picks and a game deciding fumble.
Speaker 1: People think I'm crazy when I said he should have
Speaker 1: been the first example of a quarterback on a rookie
Speaker 1: contract for a great team that just got recycled. They
Speaker 1: should have never I just don't believe that money should
Speaker 1: have been paid to him. Hundred thirty four million. Lombardi
Speaker 1: agrees with me. By the way, but the Rams did
Speaker 1: have a five They had five one yards of offense,
Speaker 1: but it's all in you know, frantic catchup mode. They
Speaker 1: had twenty eight rushing yards. Chrissie on the ground. Girly
Speaker 1: was five for sixteen on the ground. He did catch
Speaker 1: seven for fifty four, but tell me that's not still
Speaker 1: a thing with the Rams. They had thirteen penalties for
Speaker 1: a hundred and six yards. By the way, our friend
Speaker 1: Ralph Michaels tells us that the number of NFL games
Speaker 1: with over ninety points since two thousand, that was only
Speaker 1: the eighth such occurrence. Uh this game yesterday. Uh so
Speaker 1: Rams lose that one in Seattle. They get by Arizona
Speaker 1: and they do so sort of been ho hum fashion.
Speaker 1: Chris Carson one oh four for one oh four, He
Speaker 1: didn't fumble. Seahawks scored two touch ends by early in
Speaker 1: the second quarter, one on Jenevian Clowneys pick off return
Speaker 1: for a touchdown. So Seattle just ruled by Arizona and
Speaker 1: their game twenty having at ten they cover is five
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites. Put that all in the wash.
Speaker 1: I don't think the public perception of Seattle is still
Speaker 1: that of there's of of the Rams. Let's say so,
Speaker 1: I don't say it's a full field goal. It's a
Speaker 1: short week. I'll just split the difference between to pick
Speaker 1: them and the three, and I'll say it's Seattle by
Speaker 1: one and a half. Yeah, you know, it's kind of
Speaker 1: like your number better. But right now I'm seeing both
Speaker 1: sides the favorite, but mostly pick them or Seattle one.
Speaker 1: I'm opening Seattle one and tell your true right, see
Speaker 1: any one and a half, I'm gonna go up there,
Speaker 1: very very tough home team, and you know, Russell Wilson,
Speaker 1: this kid just keeps women a lot of football games,
Speaker 1: you know. I mean they weren't dazzling yesterday. I think
Speaker 1: a lot of that has to do with Arizona. I
Speaker 1: guess we'll get to them a little bit later on,
Speaker 1: you know, but I think they deserve to be a
Speaker 1: favorite at home. I don't think we could go to
Speaker 1: the full three, but I'm definitely opening to Seattle one.
Speaker 1: And like I said, if I see it higher, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go. I'm gonna go a little bit higher. I
Speaker 1: like this team, and this is a very viable team,
Speaker 1: definitely in the playoff hunt. And I don't know how
Speaker 1: far they could go into NFC, but they could go
Speaker 1: pretty far. I mean, this is a this is a
Speaker 1: team that if they made the Super Bowl, I don't
Speaker 1: think I'd be totally shot. Yeah, and all and all
Speaker 1: really does come down to Russell Wilson. Done it. With him,
Speaker 1: all things are possible. It's you know, there's so few
Speaker 1: really great quarterbacks and he is definitely on the shortlist.
Speaker 1: Just makes plays after plays, week after week, year after year.
Speaker 1: Uh So, Okay, so I had Seattle one and a half.
Speaker 1: You say it's more Seattle so what's the consens. What
Speaker 1: are you putting it at. I'm gonna put up Seattle one.
Speaker 1: Probably at this point I say the contents pick them,
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna go with Seattle one. I favored that side.
Speaker 1: Like I said that, this is still a really good
Speaker 1: home team, and I know it didn't show last week
Speaker 1: with the uh with a Packer. I do think the
Speaker 1: home teams have a little bit of an advantage in
Speaker 1: these Thursday night games. I don't have the members and
Speaker 1: farm me to prove that. I'm sure somebody does, but
Speaker 1: I kind of like these home teams on a short week,
Speaker 1: and I think Seattle's should be a slight favorite two
Speaker 1: weeks in a row. No though, with a good Thursday
Speaker 1: night match up Philly Green Bay last week and now
Speaker 1: Seattle on the Rams. All right, let's do some Sunday Morning.
Speaker 1: What you got Sunday Morning? Ravens at the Steelers. Okay,
Speaker 1: So nothing surprised me more than that Brown's destruction of
Speaker 1: the Ravens yesterday, not because the Browns won, but just
Speaker 1: the manner in which they won forty to five, and
Speaker 1: again a game that really kind of wasn't all that close. Um,
Speaker 1: Baltimore loses it forty five. They do so at seven
Speaker 1: point home favorites. Lamar Jackson held here thirty four for
Speaker 1: two forty seven, three touchdowns, two picks, sacked four times.
Speaker 1: He did get sixty six yards on the ground on
Speaker 1: nine carries. That ended a run of two passes without
Speaker 1: a pick for him when the Browns first picked him
Speaker 1: off yesterday, but they were down seventeen to end, the
Speaker 1: Ravens were moving for the potential tying score. That's when
Speaker 1: mark Ingram had the ball pride loose by Jermaine Whitehead
Speaker 1: and Chad Thomas recovered the Cleveland twenty six, Baltimore's first
Speaker 1: turnover turn over the season, and that's really when the
Speaker 1: game sort of changed at that point. Never got close
Speaker 1: after that. Browns immediately went the other way, grabbed the
Speaker 1: two touchdown advantage late in the third quarter two yard
Speaker 1: run by Chub second straight week. Baltimore now has yielded
Speaker 1: more than five hundred yards five hundred thirty last week,
Speaker 1: this week total, So that's two weeks in a row.
Speaker 1: So who they beat? They beat the Dolphins and then
Speaker 1: they got by the Cardinals. So our perception of the
Speaker 1: Ravens here in two weeks time, even though we knew
Speaker 1: we'd we figured they didn't really beat anybody. Uh, sort
Speaker 1: of down the drain here real quick again. They're tied
Speaker 1: with Cleveland at two and two early season. On top
Speaker 1: of the a f C North Browns had ten plays
Speaker 1: Chrissie of at least sixteen yards in that game. Ten
Speaker 1: plays of at least sixteen yards there at Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: hasn't played. They placed Cincinnati tonight. Uh, Pittsburgh is three
Speaker 1: point favorites at home tonight Monday at football against the Bengals.
Speaker 1: So I would imagine sight unseen, barring the unforeseen. We
Speaker 1: already have Mason Rudolph at starting quarterback for Pittsburgh. It's
Speaker 1: not as if Big Ben could go down. Um, I
Speaker 1: would imagine it's Baltimore by a little more than a
Speaker 1: field goal, I'll say three and a half on the
Speaker 1: road at Pittsburgh. I see one three and a half,
Speaker 1: but I see mostly four. I gotta I mean, I
Speaker 1: know I'm a little biased sports Pittsburgh. But Baltimore. You
Speaker 1: just said they gave up five hundred yards twice, and uh,
Speaker 1: you know, maybe they're not quite I had them like that.
Speaker 1: Go Chris, He's watching videos I think on my one feed. Uh. Anyway, um,
Speaker 1: I think I like the three and a half a
Speaker 1: little better. Just you know, I don't know what they
Speaker 1: expect out of Pittsburgh, can I You know, I don't
Speaker 1: think any of us do. We've been going back and
Speaker 1: forth between three and a half, uh and three and
Speaker 1: three and a half on tonight scame so uh. I'm
Speaker 1: not sure how much we'll gauge out of a game
Speaker 1: against Cincinnati either by unless they really get up pretty good.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna open three and a half. I think that's okay.
Speaker 1: And a lot of it is just my lack of
Speaker 1: confidence in the Ravens, who we had as clearly I
Speaker 1: thought the third best team in the A f C.
Speaker 1: Now I'm nowhere near sure that at all. I don't
Speaker 1: know who the third best team would be, but I'm
Speaker 1: not sure it's them, that's that's for sure. Yeah. Just
Speaker 1: throw them all up a five three yards they gave
Speaker 1: up to the Chiefs last week. No, no shame in
Speaker 1: that it's the Chiefs, but five thirty to the Browns.
Speaker 1: Who I mean the Browns. This is the thin line
Speaker 1: in the NFL, right If the Browns lose that game, yesterday,
Speaker 1: they're one in three and Chrissy, we're burying them. We're
Speaker 1: burying them if they lose yesterday, Right, one and three,
Speaker 1: all this hype, stop talking, Baker maybe another two and
Speaker 1: two tied for the top of the division. So um,
Speaker 1: there's that. That's the NFL. I love this league. I mean,
Speaker 1: were you know, and I know, God knows, we as
Speaker 1: bookmakers lose occasionally, but you know, it's just such a
Speaker 1: topsy turvy league that uh, you know, you really think
Speaker 1: you have a gauge on everything, and everything just goes
Speaker 1: right out the windows soon the Sunday start. Never know
Speaker 1: what's gonna happen. Barley, didn't I say that? Right before
Speaker 1: the show? I said, do you imagine how great sports
Speaker 1: books have it? The most popular sport by far right
Speaker 1: is the NFL, and it's the one where we have
Speaker 1: the least clue about that. You said, you said it twice. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it was. It was such an important point and it's
Speaker 1: al and and that is why it's nice to be you, Chris.
Speaker 1: Let's do one more here before the break. Early on.
Speaker 1: By the way, I remember hearing this yesterday because Andrew
Speaker 1: Siciliano ended the red Zone with this. There are ten
Speaker 1: early games next week and just two afternoon games. Is
Speaker 1: that right, Chris? I hate that that, but you know,
Speaker 1: I don't know. All right, let's do one more the truth. Yeah, okay, Uh,
Speaker 1: Chicago and Oakland at London. Chicago to Oakland at London.
Speaker 1: Brent Musburger headed to London. Uh, that is why we're
Speaker 1: all sort of filling in for him this week. Go
Speaker 1: my guys in the desert. I'm doing my guys today, Chrissie.
Speaker 1: I'll try not to. I'll try not to, try not
Speaker 1: to wreck the ship tonight. Uh, this afternoon, I'm sure
Speaker 1: I will be. Uh. Chicago three and one. They beat
Speaker 1: the Vikings and beat him good. Yesterday Chicago gets the
Speaker 1: home win with Chase Daniels as a quarterback win for
Speaker 1: the Bears as Mitch Robinsky went down the first series
Speaker 1: of the game, knocked out on the opening possession with
Speaker 1: a left shoulder injury. That's his non throwing arm got
Speaker 1: pinned awkwardly under his body, ball popped out. But that
Speaker 1: was the end of Trabisky and Daniel the rest of
Speaker 1: the way, twenty two of thirty for one, one touchdown,
Speaker 1: no picks, Bears time of possession advantage, over the Vikings
Speaker 1: yesterday thirty five minutes, thirty three to twenty seven. They
Speaker 1: held Dalvin Cook did the Bears defensive thirty five yards
Speaker 1: on fourteen attempts. That's after he ran for at least
Speaker 1: a hundred ten in his first three games. By the way,
Speaker 1: that's even though they didn't have a Cheam Hicks with
Speaker 1: a knee injury Roquan Smith for personal reasons. They both
Speaker 1: missed the game. Big Big just sort of dominant possession,
Speaker 1: dominant perform in Chicago. Outgained the Vikings one two to
Speaker 1: fifty nine in the first half, held the Vikings to
Speaker 1: just two possessions eleven minutes and one seconds of possession
Speaker 1: in the first half, just two possessions. I believe the
Speaker 1: first half that had five total possessions, but I' mistaken.
Speaker 1: And then there's Oakland. Good for Oakland because we all
Speaker 1: wanted to bury Oakland, and somehow they're two and two.
Speaker 1: They got the win over Denver week one, which doesn't
Speaker 1: look all that great, but they go into Indie and
Speaker 1: they really popped him in the mouth from the beginning.
Speaker 1: Derek car led the Raiders to touchdowns on three of
Speaker 1: their first four drives. Eric Harris with the late interception
Speaker 1: thirty yards who are touchdown to secure the thirty one
Speaker 1: to twenty four win outright over Indianapolis. They had produced
Speaker 1: just two scoring drives had the Raiders in their previous
Speaker 1: eighteen possessions before they started this game with scoring possessions
Speaker 1: of three of their first four. They had lost two
Speaker 1: straight by eighteen or more points, and they had this
Speaker 1: trip to London looming, so they went in there. They
Speaker 1: had to get a win. They did um and their
Speaker 1: second half start sixteen play drive for Oakland consumed nine
Speaker 1: minutes and twelve seconds yesterday. One of the big themes
Speaker 1: yesterday was these long, ridiculous drives in so many games.
Speaker 1: Oakland had one nine minutes and twelve seconds, ended with
Speaker 1: the short field goal gave the Raiders to ten lead.
Speaker 1: They did have their penalties, that's the Raiders thing. Eleven
Speaker 1: for eighty uh two key turnovers um for Indianapolis. They
Speaker 1: fumbled at the Oakland sixteen. That's the thing. All of
Speaker 1: this game would have been different for these two turnovers.
Speaker 1: Chris a fumble at the Oakland sixteen yard line with
Speaker 1: three forty six left in the second quarter when the
Speaker 1: Colts were down twenty one to ten, and they were
Speaker 1: coming in and make it a one score game, and
Speaker 1: then that interception I mentioned with two and nine left
Speaker 1: when they were down just twenty four to seventeen. UM.
Speaker 1: So that's the story with both of those teams. This
Speaker 1: is in London, um, and I've got, you know, even
Speaker 1: with the London part of things, which sort of neutralized
Speaker 1: by the way, it's technically an Oakland Raiders home game,
Speaker 1: but it's in London. I got Chicago minus six in
Speaker 1: this game. You're a little bit high. I see as
Speaker 1: low as four and a half, as high as five
Speaker 1: and a half, um, London four and a half. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: the pound I know is falling pretty good with Brexit.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go with four and a half. I
Speaker 1: think I thought Oakland looked pretty good. And of course
Speaker 1: we didn't even mentioned Trabisky is gonna be out for
Speaker 1: a while. How does that matter to the number, And
Speaker 1: I don't think so. I think Chase Daniel looks at
Speaker 1: least so far, at least as good as Trabinsky. But
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with four and a half in this game.
Speaker 1: I think the public might come in on on Oakland.
Speaker 1: I just see this as a very tough defensive battle.
Speaker 1: Uh even yesterday Chicago. Listen, they won, they won handily.
Speaker 1: The score probably not completely indicative of how much they
Speaker 1: dominated that game. Prening points are gonna be hard to
Speaker 1: come by in this game, and I hate to give
Speaker 1: either side too many points. Somebody goes four and a half,
Speaker 1: and I think I like that a little bit better.
Speaker 1: I think you're probably right that is a better number.
Speaker 1: And what I mean by the London discount and follow
Speaker 1: me here is I actually think if this game is
Speaker 1: in Oakland, it's worse off for the Raiders. So I
Speaker 1: think the travel across the sea sort of neutralizes everything. Right.
Speaker 1: I think we all agree the Bears are a better
Speaker 1: football team with that defense than the Raiders are. But imagine,
Speaker 1: I mean, if you played this game in tim Buck two,
Speaker 1: right the lore the further you go, the more it
Speaker 1: neutralizes h any advantage for the better team. So I
Speaker 1: think that it probably does get knocked down to four
Speaker 1: and a half. That would make sense to me. By
Speaker 1: the way, how about the Vante's perfect thing? Since I
Speaker 1: brought it up earlier, he was ejected season might be
Speaker 1: done for the Yeah, recentivist is what he is. He
Speaker 1: was ejected early in the second quarter after being called
Speaker 1: for unnecessary roughness helmet to helmet collision with Jack Doyle.
Speaker 1: And the thing about it was even before this is
Speaker 1: not funny, but with perfect somehow it's sort of just
Speaker 1: sort of shake your head. Even before the refs got
Speaker 1: Novac announced of the crowd that the replay review was determined.
Speaker 1: Berfeck was jogging into the locker room. He's like, yeah,
Speaker 1: I did that. I'm done, So he was. He's had
Speaker 1: eleven fines and suspensions in seven seasons. That's what Cincinnati
Speaker 1: before joining the he when he negotiates his contract, you know, well,
Speaker 1: you know I'm gonna get tied to I gotta built
Speaker 1: that and build that into my salary. I don't know.
Speaker 1: Maybe yeah. That was one where just you know, a
Speaker 1: lot of these were like, well, you know, it's football,
Speaker 1: you don't have really time to react. That one seemed
Speaker 1: like he had time to sort of make a different decision. Um,
Speaker 1: so he was out of there. So okay, Chicago minus
Speaker 1: four and a half at London. Brent Musburger on his
Speaker 1: way to London for that one next week. Uh is
Speaker 1: that an early Is that an early time? What's the
Speaker 1: what's the kickoff for that Jeff that game, oh so,
Speaker 1: but but not early early, not like those old six
Speaker 1: am Pacific things that we had to like get up
Speaker 1: four and watch streaming. Okay, all right, so that's part
Speaker 1: of the ten am games one pm Eastern. We'll come back.
Speaker 1: We'll do more. Week five lines Chris Andrews, the director
Speaker 1: of the South Point Hotel Casino. Of course, at Andrew's
Speaker 1: Sports is where you can follow him on Twitter. We'll
Speaker 1: come back, We'll do more. Right here on a numbers
Speaker 1: game at Vista. Welcome back to a numbers game, Kill Alexander.
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Speaker 1: By the way, Shanatva to everybody celebrating New Year today,
Speaker 1: including Terrico and Eddie Goldmen of the Chicago Bears, Happy
Speaker 1: New Year to that. Oh wait what they're not tribesman? Oh,
Speaker 1: I'm sorry I didn't get the memo. Chrissy. Uh. Chris
Speaker 1: Andrews is with us from l A. Chris, how are
Speaker 1: you feeling, By the way, How's how's everything going with
Speaker 1: the book? I think the book's doing well, you know,
Speaker 1: I only get these quarterly reports, you know, but the
Speaker 1: response on Twitter has been really positive. I mean, everybody
Speaker 1: that gets the book loves it, and I can tell you,
Speaker 1: um so uh if if you haven't gotten it, yet,
Speaker 1: what's wrong if you go out there and get on
Speaker 1: a book crowd, what's come on? Uh, it's called It's
Speaker 1: called and then one day and then one day and
Speaker 1: get it on Amazon. Uh you know, just uh for
Speaker 1: my Twitter, I have a pin tweek where you could
Speaker 1: just uh you know, click on that and will take
Speaker 1: you right to the site you can order it. And
Speaker 1: uh yeah, I mean so far the reviews have been excellent.
Speaker 1: The guys that have read it. I loved it, and uh,
Speaker 1: you know, so I think it's doing pretty well. I'm
Speaker 1: very happy with it. You make those you write those
Speaker 1: kind of books. You know you're not gonna make a
Speaker 1: fortune out of it, but you do it to connect
Speaker 1: with people, and I think I'm connected with a lot
Speaker 1: of people. I think it's been very successful in that sense.
Speaker 1: I was trying to make you a fortune, Chrissy on
Speaker 1: top of it. But it is a great book. And
Speaker 1: and last week, uh, last week your story that Curtis
Speaker 1: gives me, I'm sorry the many Curtis gives me a
Speaker 1: check for a million dollars, I won't say wow, yeah,
Speaker 1: I really I didn't really expect this is really planning
Speaker 1: on this, Anthony. But I'll take it. Yes, last week
Speaker 1: a million? Is that? Yeah? Last week your story? Uh,
Speaker 1: I am now a Sekh warrior. That's one of the
Speaker 1: great stories ever. Didn't make the book, didn't make a
Speaker 1: previous story Time on Beating the Book podcast Guessing Lines, Um,
Speaker 1: that might have been a top tenor Chris, that was great.
Speaker 1: That story, it's a great one. And uh, you know,
Speaker 1: I'll kind of tell you off the year why I
Speaker 1: didn't make the book. Okay, I don't want to mention her.
Speaker 1: So there's a story behind the story. There's the story
Speaker 1: had a story often times that would be one of them.
Speaker 1: So you know, uh, but you know, I'm starting Guiden
Speaker 1: coming up to me and reminding me of some other things.
Speaker 1: And I've been taking notes, and I'm thinking, I know
Speaker 1: I might have enough for a second book, you know,
Speaker 1: I don't know. But but to go out and buy
Speaker 1: this one, everybody, don't wait for that, that's right. Let's
Speaker 1: let's buy this one first and then one day available
Speaker 1: where all books are sold, including Amazon. I just want
Speaker 1: to reiterate one point, not the Eddie Goldman Tariko and
Speaker 1: shut out to a happy New Year's part of this,
Speaker 1: but the the you know, let's just take the NFL.
Speaker 1: As we were saying, like no one knows anything. One
Speaker 1: of the things that I think is key is, you know,
Speaker 1: take that Colt's Raiders outcome that we talked about, and
Speaker 1: I don't want to gloss over the point I made
Speaker 1: the Colts fumble that ball late in the second quarter
Speaker 1: on their way you know, to the house, maybe to
Speaker 1: the house at least a field goal down to ten
Speaker 1: end of the second quarter, and then the pick six
Speaker 1: late in that game. The Colts only end up losing
Speaker 1: by seven points in the end. Excuse yeah, seven points four,
Speaker 1: So the perception, you know, look, hey, Raiders went in
Speaker 1: there beat him. They scored three out of their first
Speaker 1: four possessions. You wonder, I mean, does anybody I guess
Speaker 1: the takeaway from that game. I guess what I'm suggesting
Speaker 1: is I still don't think the Raiders are that good, right,
Speaker 1: and so the four and a half, despite the travel
Speaker 1: to London seems light to me. Khalil Mack probably makes
Speaker 1: three you ridiculous plays in this game in London. Yeah, listen,
Speaker 1: I went through this when I was briefly working I
Speaker 1: was working for the Calneia technically, but when William Hill
Speaker 1: was behind them and they're trying to make up some
Speaker 1: algorithms in order to do in game wagering, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: on the NFL or in football in general. And you know,
Speaker 1: I explained to them because they're really kind of certainly
Speaker 1: at that point they were very foreign to the NFL football.
Speaker 1: And I was starting to tell him that's that's the
Speaker 1: weird thing about football. You can have first in gold,
Speaker 1: it might wind up being seven. The other way, you're
Speaker 1: going the wrong pick six and forget about it. And
Speaker 1: I mean, how do you put that in an algorithm?
Speaker 1: You know, I don't know. And they were having a
Speaker 1: lot of trouble with their in game not so much
Speaker 1: watching the game that they honestly don't understand that well,
Speaker 1: but trying to formulate in an equation that was a
Speaker 1: good predictor. And I'm sure there are some that are
Speaker 1: some predictor zone are better than others. I'm sure that.
Speaker 1: But this game is just so crazy that, you know,
Speaker 1: it's it's hard to to get to get a gauge
Speaker 1: on exactly what will happen, forget about what has happened,
Speaker 1: you know, how are you going to gauge that? I mean,
Speaker 1: it's it's very very difficult which is, uh, you know
Speaker 1: why the bookmakers love it and uh, you know the
Speaker 1: Benning public loves it too. But but it's very hard
Speaker 1: to predict, you know, before the game, in the game, now,
Speaker 1: I said, even after the game you go back and analyze,
Speaker 1: there's a lot of what I couldn't shouldas and that
Speaker 1: that's in almost every game in the NFL. That's right,
Speaker 1: unless you have access to the turnovers in the final
Speaker 1: box score, nothing really is that much of a sure thing.
Speaker 1: All right, let's do a couple more here, Chris, what's
Speaker 1: next Sunday morning? Okay, we've got Arizona at Cincinnati. Oh,
Speaker 1: I really, there's not much to say here. Cincinnati hasn't
Speaker 1: played there at Pittsburgh tonight at three point dogs Arizona's
Speaker 1: oh three and one. Ze Gonzalez missed a couple of
Speaker 1: field goals yesterday from forty three and forty eight. For
Speaker 1: the Cardinals, they've given up six touchdowns to opposing tight ends.
Speaker 1: That is a theme that I have stated once before
Speaker 1: on this show, but it's also in fantasy players. Cardinals
Speaker 1: not good against the posing tight ends, uh distantly. Team
Speaker 1: high seven catches for fifty seven yards against the Cardinals
Speaker 1: yesterday in the Cardinals laws at home to the uh
Speaker 1: Seahawks ten. And I really don't know what we've figured
Speaker 1: out about Kyler Murray quite yet, Chris, And be honest
Speaker 1: with you, Choppy is how I would sort of rate
Speaker 1: his performance thus far. I don't think they can be
Speaker 1: that upset with it. I don't think they can be
Speaker 1: that happy with his performance. I'll just say Cincinnati sight
Speaker 1: unseeing the placeholder should be three in this game. That's higher.
Speaker 1: It's four and a half, and that's almost a universal
Speaker 1: number from what I'm looking at. I do kind of
Speaker 1: like that. Um, you know, I hate to say, I
Speaker 1: kind of expect a decent performance out of Cincinnati. Can
Speaker 1: I win or lose at Pittsburgh? You know? So I
Speaker 1: think the four Napps Okay, you know you'll I've said
Speaker 1: this before. I don't want to root against anybody, especially
Speaker 1: like these rookies coming into the league, uh, because I
Speaker 1: want the league to thrive. I want them to just
Speaker 1: do well and everybody wants a bet at every game.
Speaker 1: But I said it about Kyler Murray and just that
Speaker 1: the kid is just too small and uh, and I
Speaker 1: said it about their coach and why is Klingsbury an
Speaker 1: NFL coach, you know, so I'm kind of anti Arizona
Speaker 1: and you know, you know Murray, you know, he's just
Speaker 1: too little. I mean I've seen him back there and
Speaker 1: they were comparing him to Russell Wilson. Listen, Russell Wilson.
Speaker 1: I think it was like a one enough million kind
Speaker 1: of guy. He's a terrific quarterback and Kyler Murray has
Speaker 1: to take these huge deep drops Kennon to see over
Speaker 1: his own lineman. I think it was a terrible choice
Speaker 1: by Arizona to pick him number one. Listen. Murray made
Speaker 1: the right decision financially. I think the game thirty five
Speaker 1: million or whatever it was where the Oakland A's we're
Speaker 1: gonna get him five million. So for him himself personally,
Speaker 1: right decision, but for the NFL, for Arizona, I think
Speaker 1: it was a very bad decision to have him raided
Speaker 1: so highly. And there was some I hate to use
Speaker 1: the word political correctness, but there was like a correctness
Speaker 1: too to not knock Kyler Murray going into the draft.
Speaker 1: Like if you if you thought like me, you know,
Speaker 1: people were saying, oh, you're just a cave man, you
Speaker 1: don't understand the new NFL, and the way it works,
Speaker 1: and we protect the quarterbacks and it's a much faster
Speaker 1: game all that. You know, maybe a little, but not
Speaker 1: that much. I mean you still you know they talked
Speaker 1: about Drew Brees and Russell Wilson. Those are those are aberrations,
Speaker 1: and this kid, I just don't think has it. I said,
Speaker 1: I don't want to root against them, but I don't
Speaker 1: mind betting against him. I canna tell you that I
Speaker 1: had Seattle and All my contest as one of my
Speaker 1: top picks, so I've definitely anti Arizona at this point.
Speaker 1: I thought, I love Cincinnati so much, but I think
Speaker 1: four and Apps a decent places start. By the way,
Speaker 1: that was the first game that featured two starting quarterbacks
Speaker 1: shorter than six ft. And I think a generation if
Speaker 1: I'm not mistaken. I'm not sure when the last year was,
Speaker 1: but you don't see that very often. And I think,
Speaker 1: you know, listen, as I heard you saying that, Yeah,
Speaker 1: part of me said to myself, Christy's captain caveman. But
Speaker 1: the other part of me said, the main part of
Speaker 1: my brain said, I think you're right. I think you're
Speaker 1: right about most of that um that Russell Wilson is
Speaker 1: and Drew Brees, Drew Brees if they want, when they
Speaker 1: put the camera behind Drew Brees, and Drew Brees is
Speaker 1: what listed at six feet I believe. But when they
Speaker 1: put the camera behind him, it is amazing that he
Speaker 1: completes any pass, let alone being a Hall of Famer, right,
Speaker 1: it's just incredible. It's like, how did he complete that?
Speaker 1: And he just he just has this amazing football sense
Speaker 1: and a knowledge of his offense and whereas receivers are
Speaker 1: gonna be and he's just he's one of a kind.
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson does it with his legs as well, and
Speaker 1: that's just the exception at that height, with those monsters
Speaker 1: all over the football field. But Cincinnati minus four and
Speaker 1: a half is the number. I can totally see it
Speaker 1: being that. If Cincinnati comports, you know, it plays well tonight,
Speaker 1: I can see it going down to three if Cincinnati
Speaker 1: gets destroyed tonight. Let's put it that way. So I
Speaker 1: don't have a problem with with either one. All right,
Speaker 1: Let's do another one. Jacksonville like Carolina, jackson Bell like Carolina. Well,
Speaker 1: this this ends up being an okay kind of game.
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, two expansion teams at the same time, Jacksonville,
Speaker 1: Carolina both two and two. Now Carolina, by virtue of
Speaker 1: their win over Houston will get to Houston because I
Speaker 1: have no clue what Houston does from week to week.
Speaker 1: But Carolina wins at sixteen to ten. One of those
Speaker 1: dogs on the road, one of those road dogs, that
Speaker 1: one outright. Uh they win sixteen ten despite perhaps Kyle
Speaker 1: Allen's fumbles yesterday. Um, Jacksonville, good Lord, where do we
Speaker 1: start with this? Jacksonville yesterday? Let's start with Jacksonville. Jacksonville
Speaker 1: hundred and fourteen first half yards yesterday in the first half,
Speaker 1: okayve hundred fourteen yards six points, then in the second
Speaker 1: half north of three hundred uh points for Jacksonville and
Speaker 1: twenty points for Jacksonville in the second half in their
Speaker 1: UH six to twenty four come from behind or she said,
Speaker 1: come from a come from behind, come from a head,
Speaker 1: come from behind win over Denver Leonard four net twenty
Speaker 1: nine carries two d twenty five yards career high that
Speaker 1: included an eighty one yard or they went in on
Speaker 1: Josh Lambo's thirty three yard field goals time expired. They
Speaker 1: did have twelve penalties for a hundred four yards, but
Speaker 1: their time of possession domination over the Broncos yesterday thirty nine,
Speaker 1: twelve to twenty minutes and forty eight seconds. They fell
Speaker 1: behind Denver by two touchdown, seventeen to three, and in
Speaker 1: the day of long sustained drives, Jacksonville had two of them.
Speaker 1: A ten minute, twenty four second drive that led that
Speaker 1: started the third quarter that cut the lead to seventeen
Speaker 1: to thirteen, then a seven minute drive that led to
Speaker 1: a field goal gave them a twenty three to seventeen lead.
Speaker 1: In the fourth quarter, Flacco matriculated for the Broncos to
Speaker 1: get a touchdown and that led to that final drive
Speaker 1: for Jacksonville, by the way, which was aided by another
Speaker 1: roughing the passer uh penalty on the Broncos. Will get
Speaker 1: to them, Caroline, as I said. Kyle Allen twenty or
Speaker 1: thirty four for two thirty two. He was sacked three times,
Speaker 1: three fumbles in his third career start, second this season
Speaker 1: in place of Cam Newton. Texans were only able to
Speaker 1: get points out of the last one of those fumbles, though,
Speaker 1: and Christian mccraff. Christian McCaffrey continues to be everything. Twenty
Speaker 1: nine carries, twenty seven carries rather for ninety three yards
Speaker 1: a touchdown, ten receptions for eight six Jacksonville Carolina. It's
Speaker 1: probably more than a field goal, just because it's still
Speaker 1: Garden Minshew, A Gardner Minshew, it's still a rookie quarterbacks
Speaker 1: as well as he's played, but it is Kyle Allen
Speaker 1: that that obviously mitigates it as well. I just think
Speaker 1: the perception of Carolina is that much better. So I'm
Speaker 1: gonna say it's four. Letna say it's Carolina minus four,
Speaker 1: just perception wise, and three and a half. In a
Speaker 1: matter of fact, I see three and a half the
Speaker 1: guys that used juice juice on the dog. Um. You know,
Speaker 1: of course i'd say it every week here it's outpoint.
Speaker 1: Everything's eleven and ten on straight pits off the board
Speaker 1: and football. Um, so we're gonna open three and a half.
Speaker 1: You know, I really I liked Kyle Allen. I was
Speaker 1: looking through this QBR and er my notes forty three
Speaker 1: point nine. I though I'd be a little bit higher
Speaker 1: than that, and uh, you know Jacksonville Berner Minshew, he
Speaker 1: was forty one point one. So anyway, quarterbacking probably about even.
Speaker 1: But I mean Leonard Fournette this. This is finally the
Speaker 1: Leonard four nette. I think that we somewhat expected to
Speaker 1: see in the NFL. I mean, he was dominanting. But
Speaker 1: I think it's a really good game. I think both
Speaker 1: these teams looked pretty decent to me. Uh, you said three,
Speaker 1: I really kind of like your number better, but I
Speaker 1: don't want to mess around with the three at this
Speaker 1: point said four. Oh, I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I haven't
Speaker 1: went the other way. Uh, I'd like three and a half.
Speaker 1: I could see this game one of three though. I
Speaker 1: think a lot of money showed on Jacksonville yesterday, and
Speaker 1: that was one of those games where I was scratching
Speaker 1: my head. I'm not sure why everybody's Ononville so heavily,
Speaker 1: but they were, and they were having out me right,
Speaker 1: And I was at a bet on jackson mild or
Speaker 1: bet again. I was gonna say, it's the fate of Denner. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm not positive it could be either one, you know,
Speaker 1: but definitely Jacksonville. We've talked about it before. If you
Speaker 1: bet against Jacksonville, they take away your wives get cards.
Speaker 1: I don't know if that applies this year. That certainly
Speaker 1: has in years passed, but I've been open three app.
Speaker 1: I think three apps okay, but I wouldn't be surprising
Speaker 1: this game goes closer than three by post that we'll
Speaker 1: get to the Broncos. And I just want to say this, Chris,
Speaker 1: because Denver was one of my Circus Sports picks. If
Speaker 1: I bet on Denver again this year, you have permission
Speaker 1: to slap me in the neck. Seriously, just come up
Speaker 1: to me. Don't say anything, Just walk up to me,
Speaker 1: say nothing, and just slap me in the neck because
Speaker 1: it's just it's pure hell. I have no idea, and
Speaker 1: I say it before, and I'm like, I can't now
Speaker 1: catch a shot at me. A quarter in when I
Speaker 1: see the Flacco face and I remember that I'm betting
Speaker 1: on him, but it's a Flacco fangio sort of ken
Speaker 1: yella and it has not gone well. So we'll get
Speaker 1: to them momentarily. We'll come back, we'll take a break,
Speaker 1: we'll do some more Week five guessing lines again. Hopefully
Speaker 1: you're guessing along with us. It's an interactive game UH
Speaker 1: nod to the old Stardust Guessing line show. The first
Speaker 1: sort of salvo at the upcoming week's NFL lines give
Speaker 1: you your first UH start to your handicapping week if
Speaker 1: you will, and hopefully you can find an edge within
Speaker 1: the process. Will come back more with Chris Andrews right
Speaker 1: here on a numbers game at Visa. Keep it right
Speaker 1: here for more of a numbers game with Bill Alexander.
Speaker 1: How much do I love October? Football? On the weekend?
Speaker 1: Baseball playoffs starting Tomorrow's best month of the year, sports fans,
Speaker 1: sports betting, all the above. Let's just more Week five
Speaker 1: guessing lines, Christy, let's sneak a couple more in what
Speaker 1: do you got next? By the way, hockey opens on Wednesday,
Speaker 1: to let me not sleep on that. That's right hockey,
Speaker 1: you know, no, you know, that's that's you know. There's
Speaker 1: a couple of trends of scenes since I kind of
Speaker 1: got back into business. Uh well, that's one lot of
Speaker 1: hockey action, and I can see why I've been a
Speaker 1: hockey fan my whole life. So that starts Wednesday too,
Speaker 1: so that you're right, it's great, great sports time here. Okay,
Speaker 1: we've got the Vikings at the Giants. Vikings at the Giants.
Speaker 1: We mentioned all about the Vikings Kirk Cousins yesterday and
Speaker 1: they're lost by the way to the Bear sixteen to six,
Speaker 1: a game that was perhaps not as close as sixteen
Speaker 1: to six. Indicates Kirk Cousins twenty seven of thirty six
Speaker 1: for two thirty three, no touchdowns. Note pis sacked six
Speaker 1: times and once again Chris a fumble that led to
Speaker 1: a Chicago field goal at the outset of the second half.
Speaker 1: That was a big sort of inflection point of the
Speaker 1: game where you're like, yeah, this isn't gonna happen. Span
Speaker 1: Digs was his perhaps one safety valve. Seven catches a
Speaker 1: hundred eight yards. But it's Kirk Cousins and an eighty
Speaker 1: four million dollar contract, and every Redskin fan is sort
Speaker 1: of sitting there and nodding their head like, yeah, it's
Speaker 1: kind of kind of what it is. Now here's the thing,
Speaker 1: you know, the Redskins. Are the Redskins better off or
Speaker 1: not having them? No, obviously not, but it's this weird
Speaker 1: thing in the NFL. And I alluded to it with
Speaker 1: Jared goffer Leer. If you're not a Hall of Famer
Speaker 1: or you're not an overperformer on a rookie contract where
Speaker 1: you can pay handsomely to other positions on the team,
Speaker 1: I e. Sort of Russell Wilson and the Seahawks when
Speaker 1: they won the Super Bowl and probably should have won
Speaker 1: more than one. You're not winning super bowls, right, So
Speaker 1: these middle ground quarterbacks like Kirk Cousins, like Jared Goff,
Speaker 1: these teams end up having to make these massive decisions,
Speaker 1: whether it's the Redskins or the Vikings with Cousins, whether
Speaker 1: it's the Rams who who decided what they decided with
Speaker 1: the Jared Goff and through a hundred thirty four million
Speaker 1: on them. The NFL is sort of a screwy league
Speaker 1: like that now, where teams the way that it's structured,
Speaker 1: they've got to make these massive financial decisions on guys
Speaker 1: that probably are going to lead them to middling playoffs success,
Speaker 1: you know, as as a ceiling. So that's where the
Speaker 1: Vikings are right now. They're two and two, and then
Speaker 1: there's the Giants who are two and two. By the way,
Speaker 1: if I told you before the season, this is to
Speaker 1: a game between two two and two teams. Daniel Jones
Speaker 1: not so great yesterday three thirty one for two, twenty
Speaker 1: five one touched on two picks. But the Giants played
Speaker 1: the Skins. They out first down to the Skins, if
Speaker 1: you will, twenty four to eight. They held the Skins
Speaker 1: to a hundred and seventy six total yards fifty five
Speaker 1: on the ground. Both teams had four turnovers. We just
Speaker 1: a mess of a game. Again. The time of possession
Speaker 1: thing was such a theme yesterday. Thirty six o nine
Speaker 1: to twenty three fifty one in favor of the Giants.
Speaker 1: Wayne Gallman two touchdowns uh In uh In uh se
Speaker 1: Kwan Barkley Stead there Ja Bill Preppers, Jabill Jabril Peppers
Speaker 1: rather scored on a thirty two yard interception return. Giants
Speaker 1: three over the Skins yesterday. The only road dog the
Speaker 1: Skins that didn't win out right, if you could believe
Speaker 1: that Minnesota minus four and a half, I guess on
Speaker 1: the road at the Giants will be more than three,
Speaker 1: it will be less than seven. I'll say four and
Speaker 1: a half. Very good. That's exactly what I'm gonna open it.
Speaker 1: I see nothing happened five. I definitely like the four
Speaker 1: and a half better. You know, I'm with you on Cousins.
Speaker 1: I mean, boy, that's I mean. We'll go into this
Speaker 1: a little bit later on some other teams, but you know,
Speaker 1: the Giants. I think the Giants to have a chance
Speaker 1: to improve, and you talked about Daniel Jones. Where's my
Speaker 1: notes here? He had a pretty good QBR, which is
Speaker 1: a different way to look at things. I'm not always
Speaker 1: married to it, but I think it's a good way
Speaker 1: to look at things. Seventy three point three was his QBR.
Speaker 1: Very impressive for a kid really making just his second start. Uh. Anyway,
Speaker 1: but I was kind of impressed with him. I'm not
Speaker 1: very impressed with Minnesota. I mean, they really want to
Speaker 1: run the ball in awful lot, and if they have
Speaker 1: to allow on cousins, I'm not sure it's there. So
Speaker 1: I see four and alfter five. I definitely like the
Speaker 1: four and a half better. And I think Giants pretty
Speaker 1: viable dog in this game. I wouldn't be surprised of
Speaker 1: season some money showing the Giants here. All right, let's
Speaker 1: do one more. Oh you'll love this one. New England
Speaker 1: at Washington. Needless to say, I do this was guvy.
Speaker 1: By the way. How about Redskins at Dolphins next week?
Speaker 1: That should be fun? Oh man, yeah, yeah, So the
Speaker 1: Patriots are gonna be five, and when the Redskins are
Speaker 1: gonna be owin five, let's get that out of the way. Um,
Speaker 1: Patriots first four and oh start in four years. They
Speaker 1: entered not having allowed a touchdown rushing or passing. They
Speaker 1: entered the game against Buffalo or a point in the
Speaker 1: first half. Both of those streaks came to an end.
Speaker 1: Patriots sixteen points were scored as a result of Bills
Speaker 1: miskews all sixteen of their points. Patriots winned on the road,
Speaker 1: sixteen to ten, and there was the big knockout of
Speaker 1: Josh Allen late in that game. The Bills were none
Speaker 1: too pleased with that, and uh so Matt Barkley was
Speaker 1: left to finish for the Bills. So we don't know
Speaker 1: how that would have ended otherwise, But the Patriots get
Speaker 1: to win. Tom Brady forty five. Speaking of you, said,
Speaker 1: qb Are, how about a passer rating which is scored
Speaker 1: out a one fifty eight point three Tom Brady forty
Speaker 1: five point nine passer rating sixth lowest of his career
Speaker 1: three point eight yards per attempt, worst of his career.
Speaker 1: But then there's the Redskins Jake Gruden thirty eight and
Speaker 1: one now lifetime Dwayne Haskins Jr. Uh nine for seven
Speaker 1: seen one oh seven, no touchdowns, three picks, one of
Speaker 1: them wasn't his fault. Thirty two point eight passer rating,
Speaker 1: but you know that was better than Case Kingdom's pass
Speaker 1: the rating of twenty three point seven. They were two
Speaker 1: of eleven where the Redskins and they're lost to the
Speaker 1: Giants on third downs I mentioned a hundred seventy six
Speaker 1: total yards. They're also a mess in penalties, right twelve
Speaker 1: or fifty eight? I mentioned they got you know, the
Speaker 1: time of possession twenty three fifty one in that game
Speaker 1: against the Giants. And then the Skins like they have
Speaker 1: injuries every week and we've barely started the season, right,
Speaker 1: So Chase Realier the knee injury, their center Brandon Schuff
Speaker 1: didn't play his ankle, Terry McLaurin was a scratch with
Speaker 1: his hamstring, Jordan Reed is never sitting the field again
Speaker 1: with a concussion, and so West Martin, their rookie guard
Speaker 1: by the way, made his NFL debut starting for suff
Speaker 1: So the Riskins are a mess. Uh. The Patriots by
Speaker 1: seventeen and a half. How about that? Now you're a
Speaker 1: little high by the way time like qbrs. You know what,
Speaker 1: let me find where was Brady ten point three that
Speaker 1: scored out of a And I don't have always qbr
Speaker 1: out of a hundred. That is just off when the
Speaker 1: I mean, he did not look good. But you know,
Speaker 1: I gotta give some credit that at Buffalo Defense. But
Speaker 1: I'm sure we'll get to them a little bit later too. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know you're a little bit high. You know. It's
Speaker 1: the anti redskin bias, uh that you have that which
Speaker 1: is very Justifie. It's just like a completely just afiable.
Speaker 1: What is it fifteen and a half? Where I see
Speaker 1: some fifteen I'm gonna open fifteen and a half pots Patriots?
Speaker 1: Why why is it anything less than I mean, I
Speaker 1: don't know. I thought it you'd be seventeen anyway, that's
Speaker 1: kind of from there. But I'm gonna with fifteen and
Speaker 1: a half. Yeah, and I think if by seeing higher,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go higher. Boy, this Washington team, uh you know,
Speaker 1: and uh you said it last week. It was like
Speaker 1: a life sentence when the thirty five year old Daniel
Speaker 1: Snyder bought this team. There there's there's there's no light
Speaker 1: the end of the time. I don't think there is
Speaker 1: with this guy. I think it's just gonna be one
Speaker 1: screw up after another and milking the fans and the
Speaker 1: NFL for all we can for every every dollar you
Speaker 1: can lie his pocket with. I just you know how
Speaker 1: they left these guys in the league in the first place.
Speaker 1: But I guess it's hard to judge the thirty five
Speaker 1: year old, but he's been a jured from day one.
Speaker 1: He really has been. And uh, you know what am
Speaker 1: I gonna say. I'm a Pirates fan, so I know
Speaker 1: how it is how people, the owners coming and just
Speaker 1: milk the public out every penny they can get with
Speaker 1: no intention of ever improving the team. And that's exactly
Speaker 1: what you have in Washington. Uh, seventeen and a halfs
Speaker 1: a better number. I'm sorry, that's a way too low.
Speaker 1: It really is. And I know it's an anti redskin
Speaker 1: bias because of self loathing. But but that's gonna come
Speaker 1: to me. I'm pretty sure about that. We'll find out
Speaker 1: if it will as the week, progressives will come back.
Speaker 1: I do want to make a baseball note, because the
Speaker 1: playoffs are starting. We'll talk about that, and I'll ask
Speaker 1: Chrissy about some interesting sort of uh non intuitive numbers
Speaker 1: on these playoff numbers, if you will. We'll get to
Speaker 1: that momentarily, and then we'll resumed guessing lines. It's a
Speaker 1: numbers game right here at and stick around sport for
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Speaker 1: Alexander want to believe in our number two guessing lines
Speaker 1: week five right here in the National Football League, I'm
Speaker 1: a numbers game here at Vison. Happy New Year to
Speaker 1: those who uh celebrate such things today. Um, not only
Speaker 1: am I at work, I'm doing double header today, sitting
Speaker 1: in for Brett, Uh for Brent Musburger, my guys in
Speaker 1: the desert. So uh, just parlay if I could just
Speaker 1: say this, make sure my mother is not listening today,
Speaker 1: because it would be bad news for me if she
Speaker 1: she knows I'm on the air twice Gil, you're my
Speaker 1: leading today. Just don't let my mother know that I'm
Speaker 1: on the air. And by the way, on young kipor
Speaker 1: ten days from now, please don't let my mother know
Speaker 1: or higher power for that matter, that both me and
Speaker 1: Wishnett will be in for k. That's really the worst.
Speaker 1: Christie Andrews is here to guess some lines before we
Speaker 1: get back to week five. Chris, let me ask you
Speaker 1: by the little baseball note that I mentioned before the break,
Speaker 1: which is just sorting thing thing, that the Nationals are
Speaker 1: minus one seventy eight minus one seventy nine somewhere in
Speaker 1: that pocket. Um tomorrow night, because it's Max Shures on
Speaker 1: the hill shows are, by the way, who has not
Speaker 1: been as good lately as it has been earlier in
Speaker 1: the season. Brandon Woodruff going for the Brewers, who have
Speaker 1: just been on fire down the stretch. But then when
Speaker 1: we get to the to the south point and l
Speaker 1: Tenant numbers, you see that the Brewers are actually the
Speaker 1: shorter shot. Is that just the liability question there for you? Yeah, definitely,
Speaker 1: And uh, you know it's listen, we'll be taking action
Speaker 1: on this baseball for about eleven months now, so we're
Speaker 1: all over the place. Yes, that's a liability issue and
Speaker 1: probably not a reflection of the true odds going in here.
Speaker 1: So I'll probably have to make some adjustments today. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, once I get off the flowing here and
Speaker 1: started looking at things a little more closely. But that's
Speaker 1: where we were mostly again because of action. I love that.
Speaker 1: That sounded more like now that you mentioned it to me,
Speaker 1: you know, maybe when I come in there, I should Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: all right, Well, so that's interesting and I cannot wait
Speaker 1: for baseball. Cannot wait. And it's a rocking chair game
Speaker 1: for me. As I said, we set it up, I
Speaker 1: hope numbers game listeners followed all that stuff and we're saying, Hey, there,
Speaker 1: the Nationals are available over William Hill at plus money
Speaker 1: to win the wild game. Hey, the Brewers attended. When
Speaker 1: I hope everybody, uh you set themselves up as well
Speaker 1: for this. Um. But you know what's interesting about by
Speaker 1: the way, yes, go ahead, oh or the side. A
Speaker 1: good friend of mine is a big baseball fan. Uh
Speaker 1: sent me this book when you knew I was gonna
Speaker 1: be spending. And by the way, I've had so many
Speaker 1: people send me books now that i'm you know, under
Speaker 1: doctor's care. Anyway, this one I think would be interesting
Speaker 1: to you. And that's so far. I'm only two chapters in.
Speaker 1: But a History of BA Baseball in ten pitches, mhm,
Speaker 1: very interesting book. And I'm not getting anything for this.
Speaker 1: I'm just giving the book a plug by Tyler Keptner
Speaker 1: and uh it's started the first chapters on the slider,
Speaker 1: second chapters on the fastball. And that's where I'm at
Speaker 1: right now. Really a good book for a baseball fan,
Speaker 1: I'd say, uh, you know, kind of a must buy.
Speaker 1: Should get this one, okay. And by the way, once
Speaker 1: the wild Card games get through Tuesday and Wednesday, just
Speaker 1: for those who want to know the schedule, St. Louis
Speaker 1: at Atlanta game one Thursday. That's followed by the winner
Speaker 1: of the n L wild Card game against the Dodgers
Speaker 1: at Chavez Ravine that's also a Thursday game, and then
Speaker 1: Friday quadruple header nationally game two's or games too if
Speaker 1: you want to pluralize correctly, and then the Ale Minnesota
Speaker 1: at the Yankees and whoever wins the ALE wild Card
Speaker 1: game at Houston. So Baseball playoffs finally meaningful baseball games
Speaker 1: after so long without really anything of uh, you know,
Speaker 1: with the exception of a few teams that were in races,
Speaker 1: not real import Otherwise, let us continue with Week five
Speaker 1: guessing lines so far of the games we've done. We'll
Speaker 1: recap these at the end. But I think I like
Speaker 1: the Bears if they're only given four and a half
Speaker 1: at London against the Raiders. I definitely like the Patriots
Speaker 1: if it's only fourteen and a half against the Skins.
Speaker 1: Um Jesus, that's what we're gonna it could be. It
Speaker 1: could be twenty and a half, and I might play it. Listen,
Speaker 1: here's the problem. As we just mentioned ten and road
Speaker 1: Dogs yesterday seven and one straight up, So it's not
Speaker 1: fun laying points anywhere, but those two leap to mind
Speaker 1: so far. Anyway, let's do let's do another one, Chris,
Speaker 1: what's next? Yeah, not much on this one. Jets at
Speaker 1: the Eagles. Uh, you know, there's a question mark that
Speaker 1: Donald might be back for the Jets. So there's very
Speaker 1: few numbers. I only get a couple out there, but
Speaker 1: the Jets at the at the Eagles. Yeah, Sam Donald
Speaker 1: recovering from the mononucleosis. And again, mono nucleosis is something
Speaker 1: that folks recover from. But if you're playing a contact sport,
Speaker 1: there are ramifications of regarding your spleen. You cannot have
Speaker 1: that hampered in any way ruptured, uh, because then it
Speaker 1: would be life threatening. So we don't know if it's
Speaker 1: Sam Donald. We don't know if it's looked Falk, but
Speaker 1: it's the Jets who were coming off a by playing
Speaker 1: the Eagles, who will have extra rests, and they played
Speaker 1: Thursday night against the Packers. It's double digits. I guess,
Speaker 1: you know, I would just sort of throw ten and
Speaker 1: a half out there. I'm guessing that might be short though.
Speaker 1: If I say ten and a half, yeah, I canna say.
Speaker 1: I'll want to see a few numbers, but fourteen is
Speaker 1: what it's looking like, and that's even four team I
Speaker 1: think right now. That's the big question mark. Is he
Speaker 1: playing or not? I mean, listen, I don't think he's
Speaker 1: exactly set the world on fire, but it looks pretty good.
Speaker 1: And Luke Falk, you know, boy, I don't know. I
Speaker 1: think there's some pretty big question marks around that kid
Speaker 1: at this point. But I'm gonna open fourteen to be
Speaker 1: extremely conservative on taking any action in this Meeme, so
Speaker 1: just leaving a dad. I think the Eagles come off
Speaker 1: a huge win on Thursday night, so Jets are coming
Speaker 1: off of by the Eagles are coming off a Thursday game,
Speaker 1: so they have that's true risk too. So I don't know.
Speaker 1: I don't know what would help the Jets in this case. Garnald,
Speaker 1: I guess certainly would, but I'm gonna open fourteen. They
Speaker 1: want to go with that. I got, like I said
Speaker 1: at the outset, I got the Eagles in the Super Bowl,
Speaker 1: and there's nothing in the NFC that suggested me that
Speaker 1: that's an impossibility. Let's put it that way, all right,
Speaker 1: what's the next next up? We've got Tampa Bay at
Speaker 1: North Tampa Bay in New Orleans. NFC South two and
Speaker 1: two Buccaneers now against the three and one Saints. Buccaneers,
Speaker 1: as we mentioned, go into Los Angeles fifty five to
Speaker 1: forty winners at the Rams. Jamis forty one for three
Speaker 1: eight five, four touchdowns at the pick That was good
Speaker 1: Jamis yesterday Chris Godwin twelve catches a hundred seventy two yards,
Speaker 1: both career highs, two touchdowns, Tampa Bay twelve penalties for
Speaker 1: ninety nine. They were part of the penalty brigade. But
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay had an eighteen point lead yesterday that shrunk
Speaker 1: to five on that Marcus Peters pick six. And that
Speaker 1: was a week after they blew the eighteen point lead
Speaker 1: against the Giants, So they must have had a sphincter
Speaker 1: tightening experience yesterday on that. Sorry to be so graphic here,
Speaker 1: Chris Uh. And then in Dominican Sue returned Jared Goss
Speaker 1: fumble thirty seven yards for a touchdown one oh six left.
Speaker 1: That's what UH shut the door once and for all
Speaker 1: in the Bucks forty win against previously unbeaten l A.
Speaker 1: That was after Barrett forced the fumble with his ninth
Speaker 1: sack of the season. UH shack Barrett on that. So,
Speaker 1: by the way, that's the most sacks in NFL history
Speaker 1: through a team's first four games since Sachs became a
Speaker 1: state in two. UH Tampa Bay gave up five hundred
Speaker 1: and eighteen total yards in victory as the Rams, UH
Speaker 1: threw the ball around the yard trying to come back.
Speaker 1: But it was like with the Raiders, it was an
Speaker 1: early burst, right, it was an early twenty one to
Speaker 1: nothing lead for the Buccaneers. Um they scored twenty four points.
Speaker 1: They outscored the Rams in the fourth quarter twenty four
Speaker 1: to twenty. That was a fourth quarter alone. And as
Speaker 1: I said, that Marcus Peters hit by Donovan Smith was
Speaker 1: just horrific. And then there was the Saints last night,
Speaker 1: literally like the only thing I got right, I think
Speaker 1: from top to bottom, Um Saints in a very defensive struggle.
Speaker 1: They outgained the Cowboys two sixty six to two fifty eight.
Speaker 1: So imagine both of those teams contrasted with the Rams
Speaker 1: UM Buccaneers game. Basically, both of those teams combined almost
Speaker 1: what one of the teams had in the Bucks Rams game.
Speaker 1: Bridgewater Teddy Bridgewater was sacked five times last night. Saints
Speaker 1: had nine penalties for eighty yards. But they outpossessed the
Speaker 1: Cowboys big time, thirty six oh four to fifty six.
Speaker 1: They had the ball over eighteen minutes in the second
Speaker 1: half as well. Amari Cooper got shut down by Marshawn Lattimore. Um,
Speaker 1: that was really a big deal for for the Sints.
Speaker 1: Even Saints defense was awesome last night. They won without
Speaker 1: scoring a touchdown. Von Bell forced the fumble, UM two
Speaker 1: recoveries that helped stifle Dallas's offense, and Will LUTs four
Speaker 1: field goals twelve ten Saints over the Cowboys. Uh, that game,
Speaker 1: that second half last night was on warp speed. That
Speaker 1: was such a quick football game. UM. So Saints slogging
Speaker 1: along with Eddie Bridgewater, but they got it done yesterday. Um,
Speaker 1: Cowboys hadn't played anybody. We made that point, Chris before
Speaker 1: this game, and now they played somebody, and you know,
Speaker 1: they went into a tough environment and lost. No shame
Speaker 1: in that, but it just plays to the fact that
Speaker 1: who's good. We don't know who's really that good. I'm
Speaker 1: not sure. Um, I think the Saints will be more
Speaker 1: than a field goal favorite. They'll be less than a touchdown.
Speaker 1: I'll say four and a half At home against Tampa Bay. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you're right on I see nothing but four and a
Speaker 1: half actually in this game makes sense. You know. I
Speaker 1: think that's okay, and I think it might be a
Speaker 1: little light and uh, you know I talked last week.
Speaker 1: I think I said it on the air. I definitely
Speaker 1: said it on Twitter. I think we're starting to see
Speaker 1: good Jamis. And you know, the guy has always had
Speaker 1: the talent. He just needed the right coaching, and I
Speaker 1: think he's finally got that with Bruce Arians who's had
Speaker 1: success with this type of quarterback, a big, big, strong kid,
Speaker 1: you know, from Andrew Luck to Ben Roethlisberger. Uh uh,
Speaker 1: Carson what's his name from from usc Uh my brain
Speaker 1: is not what it uses. Carson Palmer, thank you. Uh
Speaker 1: So that's his type of quarterback, and I think he's
Speaker 1: having some success now with Jamis. Winston definitely looked pretty
Speaker 1: good yesterday. Conversely, I've always sung the praises of Teddy Bridgewater,
Speaker 1: the boy sent the injury. The kid, he's just not
Speaker 1: what he was. Unfortunately. I feel bad for him. You know,
Speaker 1: he's just not I'm looking at QBRS. His was seventeen
Speaker 1: point eight yesterday, and uh, you know, he just you know,
Speaker 1: obviously didn't lead him to any touchdowns, just four field
Speaker 1: goals against some pretty tough defense. But still your professional quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: She's playing at home, and at home, you're supposed to
Speaker 1: at least get him in the end zone once, whereas uh,
Speaker 1: you go to Jamis Winston. Eighty four point six was
Speaker 1: his QBR, So he's really turned into a decent quarterback
Speaker 1: so far. I think it's a tough environment though, and
Speaker 1: highly impressed with the New Orleans defense. Not so impressed
Speaker 1: with the Tampa Bay defense, So I gotta tell you that.
Speaker 1: So I think it's a little light, but I think
Speaker 1: four and apps and okay place to start. I'll see
Speaker 1: what they want to take me. But I wouldn't be
Speaker 1: surprised this one closed a little bit higher. I think
Speaker 1: your point about Teddy Bridgewater, I think that's the big
Speaker 1: takeaway one. Yes, New Orleans defense played great last night,
Speaker 1: but you know, I think about the sack he took
Speaker 1: late that gave Dallas the ball was terrible, unforgivable, right,
Speaker 1: And I think if you're a Saints fan this six
Speaker 1: week period or whatever it is, that Drew Brees is
Speaker 1: gonna be out, you have quickly gone from We're gonna
Speaker 1: be absolutely fine with Teddy Bridgewater because he's Teddy Bridgewater too. Boy,
Speaker 1: Drew Brees can't get back soon enough. Like we're sort
Speaker 1: of just bridging the gap here, because Teddy is not um.
Speaker 1: He is a shell, as you say, to paraphrase, a
Speaker 1: shell of what I think they thought they had before,
Speaker 1: at least pre injury. Oh yeah, pre injury. I think
Speaker 1: this kid was destined, I think destined for a startom.
Speaker 1: But he was. He was destined to be one of
Speaker 1: the better quarterbacks the NFL for sure, and he's just
Speaker 1: not the same. You know. It's it's unfortunate that a
Speaker 1: guy like that, because I know the team loves him
Speaker 1: as far as like his teammates and that sort of thing,
Speaker 1: but he's just not the player he was, and it's
Speaker 1: unfortunate that a guy would suffer that kind of an injury.
Speaker 1: But you know, but this is what we got, you know.
Speaker 1: And uh And I think I think corner as a
Speaker 1: good plays to start, but just with the strength of
Speaker 1: New Orleans and the weakness of the Tampa Bay defense,
Speaker 1: I can see this one going a little bit higher. Okay,
Speaker 1: let's do one more here, and the Falcons at the
Speaker 1: Texas and these are still early games, right, ten early
Speaker 1: games and two lates on ten o'clock. What are they thinking?
Speaker 1: It's just for viewing, for betting. It's just the worst
Speaker 1: Atlanta Atlanta Houston. This is one of these games whenever
Speaker 1: Houston comes up, because I think Houston, for me, takes
Speaker 1: the prize of in a league where we can't figure
Speaker 1: out many teams at all. Maybe Houston is the poster
Speaker 1: child of this. Atlanta's one in three, Houston is two
Speaker 1: and two. Yesterday, Matt Ryan filled up the box score,
Speaker 1: but it was all in sort of catchup mode against
Speaker 1: the Titans, right He was thirty five and fifty three
Speaker 1: three ninety seven. He was sacked five times. Austin Hooper
Speaker 1: was a good target for him yesterday, nine for one thirty,
Speaker 1: but the Falcons trailed twenty four to seven at halftime.
Speaker 1: They've been outscored sixty five to ten in the first
Speaker 1: half of their three losses. So Dan Quinn, uh, you're
Speaker 1: in the j Gruden sweepstakes as well for the first
Speaker 1: coach to be fired. And then there's Houston. Um DeShawn
Speaker 1: right back to getting sacked a whole bunch. He was
Speaker 1: twenty one of thirty three Deshaun Watson one under sixty
Speaker 1: yards passing, no touchdowns, no pick sacked six times. Uh.
Speaker 1: Bill O'Brien quote, it was terrible. We've got to do better.
Speaker 1: I don't really have any answers. I've got to go
Speaker 1: back and watch the film. I have to start like
Speaker 1: right now. Unquote. Okay, Bill, go watch some film. Um
Speaker 1: So when I when you guess the line for this,
Speaker 1: I sort of throw up my hands. I'm like, I
Speaker 1: don't know, like, uh, three scenes, Like it's probably not
Speaker 1: a little light. People would bet Houston if it was three.
Speaker 1: So I'll just say three and a half and then
Speaker 1: a guess that's what it is. And I see it
Speaker 1: four and a half and five definitely, I can see one.
Speaker 1: It doesn't I see one five and a half too.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna start with four and a half. You know.
Speaker 1: Atlanta and by the way, I needed Atlanta big yesterday. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they were I think one of four on fourth downs.
Speaker 1: You mentioned the sacks, Uh, you know, some turnovers. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's like they're this close to being what we expected
Speaker 1: them to be. This is a Super Bowl team just
Speaker 1: a couple of years ago. But on the other hand, Houston,
Speaker 1: which we know they had a problem with the protecting
Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson. I think they spent their first to draft
Speaker 1: choices on a tackle on a guard to beef up
Speaker 1: that offensive line, and it doesn't look better than it
Speaker 1: ever was. I don't know if they're bad draft choices
Speaker 1: or maybe Deshaun Watson just holds the ball too long.
Speaker 1: I think that's I think all that is part of
Speaker 1: part of it's DeShawn right, Like that's the Lombardi said
Speaker 1: that to me this week. It's just kind of his game. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: I think he holds it too long. I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: at four and a half. You know, like, I don't
Speaker 1: know what to think. This is a you know, we're
Speaker 1: talking about Atlanta, you don't know what or Houston. You
Speaker 1: don't know what they think. I don't want to what
Speaker 1: to think about Atlanta. This is if either team wins
Speaker 1: by three touchdowns, I don't think I'd be all that shot.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna open four and a half and we'll
Speaker 1: see where they want to know with that. But you know,
Speaker 1: this is one of the I know you always talking
Speaker 1: about on your bag up on what's the one game
Speaker 1: you wouldn't want to bet an early look might be
Speaker 1: this one. Totally, totally would be this game. By the way,
Speaker 1: I act like, you know, Atlanta Houston not having identities
Speaker 1: is the worst thing in the world. It's not like
Speaker 1: I'm standing up like at least the Redskins know what
Speaker 1: they stand for, you know. It's not like I'm taking
Speaker 1: that position. Uh. That's well, I'd rather be Houston or Atlanta.
Speaker 1: We have a few more of these for the prime time.
Speaker 1: We'll take a break. We'll do those still in the
Speaker 1: ten am games. What is the NFL ten early games?
Speaker 1: Two afternoon games, which is just an abomination. We'll do those,
Speaker 1: will do the primetime games. Try to extract some value
Speaker 1: guessing lines with Chris Andrews right here in the Numbers
Speaker 1: game at Visa. Welcome back to a Numbers game with
Speaker 1: kill Alexander. Don't forget football season is here and get
Speaker 1: in on the action by downloading the exciting new bet
Speaker 1: MGM app. Jeff, do you get excited for new apps again?
Speaker 1: Is that he is? That is too strong of a word,
Speaker 1: exciting apps. Get excited about it. I'm very excited. There's
Speaker 1: there's a lot of exciting things out there, including app skill.
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Speaker 1: to know if I was using hyperbole with that word,
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Speaker 1: Check it out. Proud sponsors of a numbers game right
Speaker 1: here at Vecent. We get tweets, beating the book, we
Speaker 1: get tweets. Appreciate all the feedback, always um, sometimes funny,
Speaker 1: sometimes insightful. Sometimes I don't know. Uh, five too many one?
Speaker 1: Ron Bower, Hey, Gil, will you have Angry Andy to
Speaker 1: talk NHL season win totals prior to the season's talking
Speaker 1: about our hockey guy from Edmonds and Alberta Andy McNeil,
Speaker 1: who speaks Canadian, so we do have a translator. Um,
Speaker 1: he cannot do it this week, but he has passed
Speaker 1: along his projections, so I will pass along his projections.
Speaker 1: He will be on the show in a couple of weeks,
Speaker 1: but I he gave me all his numbers, so I
Speaker 1: will pass those a long run and we will talk
Speaker 1: cockey this week. Billy mcvegas, Hey, Gil, are you still
Speaker 1: pinch hinting for Uncle Brent today? Yes? Yes, I am
Speaker 1: my guys in the desert with Mike Palm, with Vinny
Speaker 1: mali Ulo and with Ron Flatter Mayhem. I'll try not
Speaker 1: to sneak the ship. That should be fun. Kyle Stewart, Hey, Gil,
Speaker 1: does the on site app show you what teams allow
Speaker 1: in defense and football? I can't find it what teams
Speaker 1: allow in defense? Uh? Yes, you'll have to be more specific,
Speaker 1: but yes they do. They do. Uh show that the
Speaker 1: on site sports app. Uh new York mess. Do you
Speaker 1: still like the Bears if they don't leave for London
Speaker 1: until Friday? Is that the word with the Bears? They're
Speaker 1: not going to London until Friday. Let's check on that.
Speaker 1: But yes, I still like them. But yes, that is
Speaker 1: a curious travel schedule, waiting all the way till Friday
Speaker 1: for the Bears. Uh. Steven Vegas ten NFL games in
Speaker 1: week five at ten am, two at one pm. In
Speaker 1: my household, we usually call the afternoon games and nap time. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's not It's not a fun schedule. Uh. And then
Speaker 1: for Christie over Undergirl is one of the Chris Andrews
Speaker 1: is one of the nicest people, not just in life,
Speaker 1: but met in his business the treasure trove of great stories. Yes,
Speaker 1: that is correct, we love our Chrissy. Uh Nicholas Griggs
Speaker 1: one more Minnesota was a road dog who didn't win.
Speaker 1: Also actually consensus pick them on Minnesota, so I don't
Speaker 1: count him as a road dog. You will, you would
Speaker 1: find some plus ones, but they were a pick him
Speaker 1: more than plus one's across the board anyway, on the
Speaker 1: screen that I got. Let's bring Chris Andrews back right here.
Speaker 1: You can follow who had Andrew's Sports. The name of
Speaker 1: the book once again is and then one day forty
Speaker 1: years of bookmaking from Chris Andrews available will all uh
Speaker 1: sports well where ald books are sold Amazon and otherwise.
Speaker 1: He's the South Point Sports book director. And it's our
Speaker 1: Monday tradition during football season to do guessing lines an
Speaker 1: old nod to the old start us show, Chris, we
Speaker 1: have a couple more do we have? Do have one
Speaker 1: more ten am game? If my math is correct. Uh, yeah,
Speaker 1: one more Tenants ten am game, And so we get
Speaker 1: Buffalo have Tennessee not a whole bunch of numbers out
Speaker 1: there because we're waiting to see Josh Allen status. He
Speaker 1: left the esterday's game with the concussion. He did ind
Speaker 1: he was thirteen of twenty eight before he left with
Speaker 1: one fifty three, no touchdowns, three picks. He was sacked
Speaker 1: four times. Um. Buffalo was not happy about this, by
Speaker 1: the way. They were fuming by the way, unable to
Speaker 1: finish the game. As you mentioned, helmet to helmet hit
Speaker 1: from Jonathan Jones. Sean McDermott, Buffalo coach quote, there's no
Speaker 1: room in football for that, and he questioned why Jones
Speaker 1: wasn't ejected. As a matter of fact, Alan was not
Speaker 1: woozy placed in concussion protocol left his status uncertain for
Speaker 1: this game against Tennessee. At Tennessee next weekend, the Bills
Speaker 1: were facing third and eight at the New England forty five.
Speaker 1: He scrambled out of the pocket through a hole up
Speaker 1: the middle. Uh drawn Harmon came in from the right.
Speaker 1: Alan was struck in the crown of the helmet by Jones,
Speaker 1: lowered his head and made the hit. Teams combined the
Speaker 1: Bills in the Patriots yesterday and Patriot sixteen to ten win,
Speaker 1: combined for fourteen punts, one of which was blocked. I
Speaker 1: mentioned earlier, all sixteen Patriots points coming off Bill's gaffs.
Speaker 1: Matt Barkley in place of Josh Allen nine of sixteen
Speaker 1: seven no touchdown, one pick, one sack uh Frank Gord
Speaker 1: did his thing seventeen for one oh nine, the ageless
Speaker 1: wonder on two uh reconstructed knees. Talking about first downs,
Speaker 1: the Bills out first down to the Patriots, if you will,
Speaker 1: to eleven out gained him three seventy five to twenty four,
Speaker 1: But the four turnovers and the minus three turnover margin
Speaker 1: that sunk them. That and the fact that they were
Speaker 1: two of thirteen on third downs. And then there's Tennessee.
Speaker 1: Tennessee as we as we talked about crushed Atlanta twenty
Speaker 1: four to ten at Atlanta and Tennessee did so. Derrick
Speaker 1: Henry twenty seven catches a hundred yards. A J. Brown
Speaker 1: at Old Miss three catches for ninety four, two touchdowns.
Speaker 1: Marcus Mariota and I've I've taken shots at Marcus Mariota before, Chris,
Speaker 1: but let me just say this. He's the only quarterback
Speaker 1: in the NFL this year to start all four games
Speaker 1: this season who has not turned over the ball once. Now,
Speaker 1: if you knew you were getting that out of a
Speaker 1: quarterback more than any other characteristic, might you not throw
Speaker 1: a lot of money over a guy who's that judicials
Speaker 1: with the football. I think you might. I threw three
Speaker 1: first half touchdown passes, as said to to Brown, Titans
Speaker 1: defense had three fourth down stops on the Falcons. That's
Speaker 1: the other thing, right, those high leverage moments Tennessee one
Speaker 1: them all against the Falcons yesterday. Those go the other way.
Speaker 1: Maybe it's a completely different outcome. Demonte Freeman held to
Speaker 1: eight yards on twelve carries the week before was stopped
Speaker 1: by Darrell Casey or he was helped at twenty on
Speaker 1: twelve carries. In this game, he was stopped by Drill
Speaker 1: Casey on a fourth and one in the second quarter.
Speaker 1: Ryan was sacked on two fourth down plays in the
Speaker 1: second half. Tennessee allowed seventeen sacks in its first three games,
Speaker 1: almost six per game. None allowed yesterday. So Buffalo at Tennessee,
Speaker 1: three and one team against the two and two team.
Speaker 1: The entire a f C South is two and two.
Speaker 1: Hate to be lazy, but it's Tennessee minus three, isn't
Speaker 1: it two and a half? That's what I see, And
Speaker 1: I think, okay, yeah, I kind of have a feeling
Speaker 1: he will. But I mean, of course a lot of doctors.
Speaker 1: Is strictly my own judgment here, But you know, we're
Speaker 1: talking about Tennessee. You know, you never know when big
Speaker 1: plays are gonna happen in the game, and Tennessee made
Speaker 1: every one of them against Atlanta. Uh you know, is
Speaker 1: that an aberration? Yeah? I'm not sure because I think
Speaker 1: that you can make an excuse for Atlanta going into
Speaker 1: the game, But boy, we're making excuses for them all year.
Speaker 1: Buffalo on the other hand, and I haven't had a
Speaker 1: chance to go through the numbers that thoroughly yet, but
Speaker 1: I think the best defense in the NFL. I mean,
Speaker 1: they got to be close, and they're right there. So
Speaker 1: I think this is gonna be. You know, we've got
Speaker 1: a low total. What I'm seeing right now is thirty
Speaker 1: eight and a half, which I think is the lowest
Speaker 1: total on the board. Yet it is so far uh so,
Speaker 1: and I can see why it's such a low total.
Speaker 1: I think this is gonna be a very tight game.
Speaker 1: I think two and a halfs okay, And I think
Speaker 1: Josh Allen's I'm assuming he's gonna play. I think he will.
Speaker 1: Matt Barkley is competent at best, but if they have
Speaker 1: to go with them, they have to go. But it's
Speaker 1: not like Josh Allen and set the world on fire. Rader.
Speaker 1: Although the kids he's he's a winner. He's won a
Speaker 1: few games one So I'm gonna go with two and
Speaker 1: a half. I needed o king. Yeah, we'll wait to
Speaker 1: find out about Josh Allen. That's obviously the big question
Speaker 1: mark there. All right, the two afternoon games, what do
Speaker 1: we have to look forward to in the afternoon next week?
Speaker 1: We have the Broncos at the Chargers. Someone checked my
Speaker 1: pulse Denver's oh and four Charges two and two after
Speaker 1: their win over the Dolphins. By the way, just brief aside,
Speaker 1: the Dolphins have a by here, I believe before their
Speaker 1: clash with the Redskins in two weeks. But the Dolphins
Speaker 1: they had a lead for three minutes and forty nine
Speaker 1: seconds in this game yesterday against the Charges. That's the
Speaker 1: only time they've had a lead all year. But they've
Speaker 1: been outscored one sixty three to twenty six, worst four
Speaker 1: game point differential since at least nineteen forty. That's what
Speaker 1: I'm seeing here. Apparently someone was checking this and when
Speaker 1: they got the nineteen forty, they just got tired and
Speaker 1: they stopped. They stopped going back in time. Dolphins have
Speaker 1: been outscored eighty one to nothing the second half this season.
Speaker 1: Eighty one and nothing. Is that good? Um, okay, so
Speaker 1: let's start. Let's I guess we could start with the
Speaker 1: Charge then since I just started with the Dolphins, So Chargers,
Speaker 1: maybe the Dolphins. They cover, by the way, the biggest
Speaker 1: spread of the of the week. They went at thirty
Speaker 1: to ten Rivers twenty four thirty for three ten, two
Speaker 1: touchdowns not picks. I don't really know what we know
Speaker 1: from these stats though. Against the Dolphins, right Ekeler eighteen
Speaker 1: for sixty a touchdown, five catches sixty two yards another touchdown.
Speaker 1: Of course, Melvin Gordon is available for this game now
Speaker 1: coming up. Charges were eight of thirteen on third downs.
Speaker 1: They held Miami to two hundred thirty three yards. They
Speaker 1: had a lot of penalties ten for eighty nine and
Speaker 1: a penalty ridden league. They also had a huge time
Speaker 1: of possession advantace thirty seven thirty six. They too had
Speaker 1: a long drive to to help that time of possession
Speaker 1: domination eight ten and a half minute drive in the
Speaker 1: third quarter that helped them take control. They never punted
Speaker 1: against the Dolphins, on and on and on. By the way,
Speaker 1: they did lose Melvin Ingram in the first quarter with
Speaker 1: a hamstring injury. He didn't return, so that could be
Speaker 1: a big loss for But back to Denver, and I
Speaker 1: said this to you earlier, Chrissie. If I been on
Speaker 1: Denver again, just walk up to me, slap me in
Speaker 1: the neck. Don't say anything, just keep moving. You don't
Speaker 1: have an X. There's no explanation necessary. That's their eighth
Speaker 1: straight lost. Denver's lost to Jacksonville yesterday's their eighth straight
Speaker 1: loss going back to last season. They're eleven and twenty
Speaker 1: five since Peyton Manning eleven and twenty five. Joe Flacco
Speaker 1: yesterday twenty two of thirty eight, three oh three, three touchdowns,
Speaker 1: one pick, and the Joe Flacco face was in full effect.
Speaker 1: Emmanuel Sanders five or one oh four. But they were
Speaker 1: victimized again by a last second field that we talked
Speaker 1: about it earlier Josh Lambeau for the win. Second time
Speaker 1: this season that's happened. They blew a fourteen point lead
Speaker 1: at home in a loss for the first time since
Speaker 1: two thousand six, and it was just like they're lost
Speaker 1: to the Bears. Right in Denver. Two weeks ago, the
Speaker 1: Broncos helped ignite a winning drive by getting whistled for
Speaker 1: roughing the passer against Chicago. Was that Chubb play which
Speaker 1: was highly questionable, right the league admitted afterwards, in fact,
Speaker 1: there was a bad Hall. And then yesterday, after Denver
Speaker 1: took the one point lead late, it was a flag
Speaker 1: on Van Miller who got Minshew in the neck. Gardner
Speaker 1: Minshew in the neck just as he released his past.
Speaker 1: That was right after he picked up the ball that
Speaker 1: Chubb had knocked out from his hand. So while the
Speaker 1: Broncos finally ended their sack drought, they got to Minshew
Speaker 1: five times. Now they couldn't stop the run. Two sixty
Speaker 1: nine yards rushing and we mentioned, of course four Net
Speaker 1: had most of those. Denver led by two touchdowns that
Speaker 1: were driving for another score just before halftime. That was
Speaker 1: the moment of the game. It looked like We're just
Speaker 1: to dominate. And then Ronnie Harrison picks off Flacco who
Speaker 1: just completely airmailed the pass to Emmanuel Sanders and that
Speaker 1: led to Lambo second field goal that pulled the Jaguars
Speaker 1: to seventeen to six and a half. And that was
Speaker 1: the turning point of that game. Right, You're up two touchdowns,
Speaker 1: you're going in for a score, and then Flacco just
Speaker 1: airmails it and that left the door open and the
Speaker 1: Jaguars walked through it. Denver's at the charges. I guess
Speaker 1: the Chargers by six, I'll say, Anthony Lynn Discount aid
Speaker 1: like I see a few sixes, but mostly six and
Speaker 1: a half. And That's where I'm going to open it.
Speaker 1: The Chargers just do manage to do some things that
Speaker 1: you just scratch your head and say, when are they doing?
Speaker 1: Of course they couldn't even try to blow that game
Speaker 1: against Miami yesterday. I looked like a couple of times
Speaker 1: they were gonna try. I mentioned QB R a lot.
Speaker 1: This was flaccos. QB artistry set me two point six
Speaker 1: out of a hundred. So that's like one of the
Speaker 1: better ones. I'm looking that. But boy, that could be
Speaker 1: really deceiving. Yeah, yeah, that really is because he did
Speaker 1: not you know, he came through in that last drive
Speaker 1: and uh, you're talking about the Joe Flacco faith. I
Speaker 1: understand that. You know, he does not get flustered, which
Speaker 1: I give him credit for that. But still he had
Speaker 1: that play at the end of the half. I think,
Speaker 1: you know, did the game turn on that? Man? You know,
Speaker 1: it's hard to say it turned on that, but it
Speaker 1: certainly could have been one of those leads that were
Speaker 1: almost insurmountable for Denver. Had they scored then Uh, yes,
Speaker 1: that's that's not a great that that number is not
Speaker 1: reflective of what we saw on the field. But all
Speaker 1: that means that I think that's a little like you
Speaker 1: like six, I'd like six and a half. I even
Speaker 1: thought maybe seven in this game, just because you know,
Speaker 1: I like Denver going into the game. Distray ifically gave
Speaker 1: that out on the show. But boy, I could not
Speaker 1: have been less impressed with that team. Even if they
Speaker 1: would have come back and one. The defense, which we
Speaker 1: thought was really going to be good, never really came
Speaker 1: up with a big play. Offensively, they were very, very challenged.
Speaker 1: But it's the Chargers who have a habit of long
Speaker 1: games like this. Yeah, so I'm gonna start with six
Speaker 1: and a half. I wouldn't be surprised if this one
Speaker 1: goes to seven. Now, well that's why when I guessed
Speaker 1: that I went six instead of seven, Because it's the Chargers, right,
Speaker 1: I don't have like supreme confidence. And then covering numbers either,
Speaker 1: um boy, Denver at Chargers late tomorrow. We got two
Speaker 1: primetime games obviously Sunday night, Monday night. We'll get to those,
Speaker 1: will wrap it up, will recap it. It's guessing lines
Speaker 1: right here on a numbers game at Visa. Welcome back
Speaker 1: to a numbers game with you, Alexander. We'll call out
Speaker 1: my piece alone. Israeli guy works as there's Caesar's. He's
Speaker 1: gonna kill me for reading this, sat I won't tell anyone.
Speaker 1: You're on the air and I'm watching and not in synagogue,
Speaker 1: So everybody sort of circumventing the new year and talking gambling.
Speaker 1: My mother used to say to me, Jeff, on the
Speaker 1: on rush on the New Year, that if I talk
Speaker 1: back to her that I shouldn't do it on the
Speaker 1: New Year, because that's that means that's how I will
Speaker 1: behave for the entire year. That's what she would say
Speaker 1: to me. So I'm hoping the gambling instincts are perfect today,
Speaker 1: so therefore I will have great gambling instincts for the
Speaker 1: for the entire year. It's according to the code follows,
Speaker 1: doesn't well, I thought you were gonna say it was
Speaker 1: gonna be the year to she expect you to finally
Speaker 1: like the brisket. No not. I never loved the brisket.
Speaker 1: No matter what my mother says, you love the brisket,
Speaker 1: I don't love the brisket. Ema you love the brisket.
Speaker 1: I do not. Let's get back at Chris Andrews. Chris, I,
Speaker 1: Jeff tells me I botched this. There was one more
Speaker 1: afternoon game. There's one more after game, and that's one
Speaker 1: Green Bay at Dallas. Green Bay at Dallas green Bay
Speaker 1: extra rest. They lost the Eagles last Thursday night. Aaron
Speaker 1: Rodgers thirty four fifty three for four twenty two, two
Speaker 1: touchdowns of the pick DeVante before he went out with
Speaker 1: the toe injury. Devanta's injuries big uh. Ten ten catches
Speaker 1: for one eight yards. Green Bay had four one total yards.
Speaker 1: But if they don't have DeVante for this and Jeff
Speaker 1: we gotta get a status on on Adams for this,
Speaker 1: his absence would be huge. Uh for this game Cowboys
Speaker 1: lose to the Saints. As we mentioned last night, twelve
Speaker 1: to ten predictable first down runs for the Cowboys perhaps yesterday, UM,
Speaker 1: Dallas came in with the NFL's third ranked running game,
Speaker 1: averaging a hundred seventy nine yards. They had scored no
Speaker 1: fewer than thirty one points in a game. Again, that
Speaker 1: was against the Dolphins the Redskins, and who was the
Speaker 1: third team they played? Dolphins, Redskins and uh, what other
Speaker 1: drek do they play? Giants? UM? Apologies of the Giants
Speaker 1: for including you with the Dolphins and Redskins, but they
Speaker 1: only got forty five yards on the ground did the
Speaker 1: Cowboys Yesterday? Zekiel Elliott scored the game's only touchdown the
Speaker 1: third quarter gave Dallas the ten and nine lead, but
Speaker 1: he finished with just thirty five yards and his longest
Speaker 1: run was six yards. He was also stripped, if you remember,
Speaker 1: by Von Bell in the fourth and short run. That
Speaker 1: was huge. Um, Dallas by three and a half, I suppose, yeah,
Speaker 1: I see three and happens four. I'm going to go
Speaker 1: to three and a half. But I do think that
Speaker 1: Davante Adams, who by the way, a fish three listed
Speaker 1: as questionable the latest latest high half. I think that
Speaker 1: is a big injury because I think you get averaging
Speaker 1: like about ninety four yards of games something like that,
Speaker 1: so you know, obviously a big, big weapon for green Bay. Um.
Speaker 1: You know, it's funny green Bay's defense carried in the
Speaker 1: first couple of games and then all of a sudden,
Speaker 1: the defense doesn't show up. But of course Rogers has
Speaker 1: his best game of the year or so forth. So
Speaker 1: interesting game. From that perspective, I think Dallas showed that
Speaker 1: maybe they're not quite the at this team on Earth,
Speaker 1: like Jerry Jones would have you believe when they faced
Speaker 1: the real opponent yesterday in some hostile territory. Of course,
Speaker 1: they're coming back home here I think three and a
Speaker 1: half's good. I wouldn't want to go too far land
Speaker 1: points against Green Bay. Like I said, I think that
Speaker 1: defense probably maybe that wasn't the real defense we saw
Speaker 1: against Philadelphia, and Missily was really on a mission that game,
Speaker 1: and Wentz played extremely well for the first time in
Speaker 1: a while. But I think the defense probably shows up
Speaker 1: a little bit better for Green Day. And I think
Speaker 1: three and alps of plenty, plenty of points to have there.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go to three and a half. Nailed
Speaker 1: that one. Let's go Sunday night. What you got. The
Speaker 1: Colts at Kansas City, Colts at Casey, Colts among the
Speaker 1: two and two teams in the a f C South
Speaker 1: after their loss of the Raiders at Casey Casey four
Speaker 1: and oh only undefeated in the NFL, case New England,
Speaker 1: and then the Niners who are three and oh coming
Speaker 1: off of by UM. So I look at the Colts
Speaker 1: and the Chiefs as sort of sort of the same
Speaker 1: lesson right, We talked about how the Colts the two
Speaker 1: key turnovers or everything they fumbled at the Oakland sixteen
Speaker 1: with three forty six left in the second quarter. They
Speaker 1: were down to one and ten at the time. Then
Speaker 1: the pick six with two O nine left in the
Speaker 1: fourth quarter when they were only down a touchdown should
Speaker 1: also been noted. The Colts had a lot of injuries
Speaker 1: right t Y Hilton Devon Funches, they were both out
Speaker 1: with injuries. Uh, the Colts still game three forty six
Speaker 1: yards more than half of those. I should mention in
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter when they were scrambling to get back
Speaker 1: in the game, but Marlon mac didn't return after hurting
Speaker 1: his ankle in the second half. They also played without
Speaker 1: All Pro linebacker Darius Leonard who was concussed. Safety Malik
Speaker 1: Hooker had the tornment niscus, so that could have gone
Speaker 1: very differently for the Colts without those two turnovers. The
Speaker 1: Chiefs and the Lions were fascinating yesterday. Somehow we haven't
Speaker 1: gotten to this game yet because the Lions I'm assuming
Speaker 1: are are either they're gonna buy next week, is it um?
Speaker 1: So the Chiefs. Yeah, The Chiefs lost three fumbles and
Speaker 1: Detroit gave it back twice with fumbles in the third quarter,
Speaker 1: combining for the most fumbles lost in a game since
Speaker 1: So the key sequence of this game and the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: I don't know if you could say they should have
Speaker 1: lost this game, but they certainly could have very easily.
Speaker 1: They opened the second half with the McCole Hardman fumbling
Speaker 1: on the McCole Hardman fumbled the kickoff return opening kickoff
Speaker 1: return second half. Then Matthew Stafford fumbles on the Kansas
Speaker 1: City six on the ensuing possession. Uh. And then Johnson
Speaker 1: fumbles into the end zone on Detroit's next drive. That
Speaker 1: carry on Johnson fumble. Uh, that's when Kansas City went
Speaker 1: ahead for the first time early in the third quarter.
Speaker 1: But Shad Brilon recovers the carry on Johnson fumble he
Speaker 1: returns at a hundred yards. Is one of these things
Speaker 1: where they don't blow the whistle, right, they take advantage
Speaker 1: of everyone on the field sort of appearing to stop momentarily,
Speaker 1: the officials not blowing the whistle. And it stood after
Speaker 1: review and it was a correct standing. Uh. It was
Speaker 1: a fumble and the Chiefs completely flipped the game on that.
Speaker 1: By the way, they needed a final score late on
Speaker 1: a big Patrick Mahomes scramble on fourth and eight on
Speaker 1: their final drive to see or the win. But were
Speaker 1: it not for that play, UH, there's no way they
Speaker 1: win that game. Probably, so Chiefs got sort of fortunate
Speaker 1: to win that game against Detroit, who gets their first
Speaker 1: loss of the year Casey versus Indianaples. Though it's still
Speaker 1: Kansas City and it's Monday's Sunday night at home primetime.
Speaker 1: I mean to me this, if it's seven, it's too little.
Speaker 1: Fourteen is way too many. The only question for me
Speaker 1: is that ten or ten and a half I was
Speaker 1: gonna guess. And if it's a ten and a half, um,
Speaker 1: I'll say ten and a half because I think ten.
Speaker 1: People still bet Kansas City. I'm gonna open ten, but
Speaker 1: I think nine and a half and ten on this game.
Speaker 1: And you're right, a Sunday night game, the public is
Speaker 1: going to be on Kansas City. But I would not
Speaker 1: be surprised if the wise guys coming in on the
Speaker 1: coach in this game. First of all, let the Detroit game.
Speaker 1: First of I was impressed with the Lions. They're they're
Speaker 1: pretty good. That's a that's the only team. Man, that's
Speaker 1: one hell of a division. I gotta tell you, I
Speaker 1: don't know who's gonna win that, but right now I
Speaker 1: think I think it's the Vikings in last place, which
Speaker 1: a lot of people like them to win it. But
Speaker 1: that that division very, very tough, So I'm impressed with Detroit.
Speaker 1: That being said, um, Kansas City pulled out to win,
Speaker 1: and you're right, they had a couple of big plays.
Speaker 1: They very easily could have lost, maybe even should have lost.
Speaker 1: But nonetheless, I think the public will be on Kansas
Speaker 1: City in this game. And uh but I think the
Speaker 1: wise that might come in and take the Colts. So
Speaker 1: I'm gonna open ten. I think that's a good number,
Speaker 1: but I see some nine and a half's out there,
Speaker 1: and I'm not sure. If I was opening in a vacuum,
Speaker 1: I wouldn't go at nine and a half. But like
Speaker 1: I said, I think the public will definitely on Kansas
Speaker 1: City comes Sunday night. So that's why I'm gonna open it. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they're gonna bet nine and a half up to Ted immediately,
Speaker 1: I think to your point, NFC North Green Bay and
Speaker 1: Chicago both three and one, Detroit to one and one,
Speaker 1: Vikings two and two. Talking to you, Kirk Cousins, All right,
Speaker 1: what's Monday Night? Monday Night Cleveland at San Francisco. So
Speaker 1: San Francisco not only on the buy, but they get
Speaker 1: extra rest to the Monday night. When we last saw
Speaker 1: San Francisco. They were playing Pittsburgh and barely winning that game.
Speaker 1: UM tried everything they could to lose that game, but
Speaker 1: they got it done. And for the third time in
Speaker 1: four weeks, Cleveland's in prime time? Is that right? Jeez?
Speaker 1: But like that, it sounds like there was a lot
Speaker 1: of a lot of publicity going into this year, but
Speaker 1: the Cleveland Brown sounds like it. Did you see anything
Speaker 1: in the betting markets I should be aware of over
Speaker 1: the offseason? Beldin a little bit. Yeah, they were, but
Speaker 1: you know that said they were more impressive, like I
Speaker 1: said at the beginning than maybe anybody. Yesterday that went
Speaker 1: over Baltimore was resounding. Um Mayfield twenty of thirty for
Speaker 1: three forty two, one touchdown, one pick. He had thrown
Speaker 1: five interceptions on just three touchdown or with just three
Speaker 1: touchdown passes coming into that game. Nick Chubb twenty for
Speaker 1: one sixty five three touchdowns, including an eighty eight yard
Speaker 1: or where he was shot out of a cannon no
Speaker 1: one was near him. Uh and Landry by the way
Speaker 1: eight catches for one sixty seven five thirty total yards
Speaker 1: for the Browns, and they sacked Lamar Jackson four times
Speaker 1: first time Cleveland's been in first place after four games
Speaker 1: since I know they're only two and two. By the way,
Speaker 1: they didn't have Denzel Ward of Greedy Williams right there
Speaker 1: starting cornerbacks again. Both were enacted with hamstring injuries for
Speaker 1: the second straight week. Cleveland at the Niners. That's Niners
Speaker 1: by three, right, Yeah, I see it a little higher.
Speaker 1: Three with juice on the favorite or three and a
Speaker 1: half with Juice on the dog. Yeah. I think it's
Speaker 1: a tough one. I'm gonna open three where they want
Speaker 1: to take me with this one, but I have a
Speaker 1: feeling they'll lay it. But you know, listen, it's an
Speaker 1: evolving game. We know that they're talking about a young
Speaker 1: quarterback and a young coach for Cleveland, and I think
Speaker 1: there's a lot of questions about Mayfield going into the game,
Speaker 1: and there still is. I mean, one game isn't gonna
Speaker 1: make your career. But I think he really did play
Speaker 1: pretty tough and uh, I think a lot of the
Speaker 1: question marks surrounding him were, well, he panicked with there's
Speaker 1: pressure in the pocket, and he was pressured. Although they
Speaker 1: protected him pretty well, he was pressured, but he really
Speaker 1: didn't succumb to the pressure. Too much yesterday and well,
Speaker 1: Chub was he was a man and a half in
Speaker 1: that game. He was unbelievable. But the other question marks
Speaker 1: from Cleveland, I think it was a coach Freddy Kitchens.
Speaker 1: He coached a really good game and uh, I gotta
Speaker 1: tell you of all those things that that was impressive.
Speaker 1: And you know, listen, it's his first job as a
Speaker 1: head coach, and I think he made some mistakes for
Speaker 1: sure along the way from from the off season two
Speaker 1: in season so far this year, but I was impressed yesterday.
Speaker 1: He did a really really good job. And uh, you know,
Speaker 1: they came through I think in his quarterback and you know,
Speaker 1: maybe maybe they've turned the corner because they do have
Speaker 1: a very good lineup but a very good roster, so
Speaker 1: maybe they've turned the corner. But I'm gonna start with three.
Speaker 1: I have a feeling you'll probably lay it, but I'm
Speaker 1: gonna take a bet at the three and to see
Speaker 1: where they want to go with it, so that that
Speaker 1: that that's gonna be my opener. But I think they
Speaker 1: will wind up going to screen app at some point.
Speaker 1: You know how we said Atlanta Houston would be the
Speaker 1: answer to the megapod question of what's the game? You
Speaker 1: want no part of the side. This is sort of
Speaker 1: an honorable mention because I know, I know when the
Speaker 1: Cowboys were three and know, we said, hey, they played
Speaker 1: the Dolphins, the Giants, and the Redskins. What do we
Speaker 1: really know about them? San Francisco, what do we really
Speaker 1: have a feeling about them? Like they beat Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: on two pick six, as if I'm not mistaken. They
Speaker 1: did crush Cincinnati, but you know it's Cincinnati. And then
Speaker 1: that Pittsburgh game with Mason Rudolph and all the Steelers
Speaker 1: fans like yourself are like Mason Rudolph's not that good.
Speaker 1: Everybody was saying that in San Francisco barely won that game,
Speaker 1: barely won, Pittsburgh covered. Yeah, so I mean there're three
Speaker 1: and no but I don't know what to make of them,
Speaker 1: So I would want no part of this game either. Well,
Speaker 1: the other thing is, you know, when you've mentioned it before,
Speaker 1: I'm much how big of a home field advantage San
Speaker 1: Francisco had. You know, that's that's not like an intimidating
Speaker 1: place to go in and play. Now, maybe you know
Speaker 1: there's three and oh they're playing Monday night. Maybe it's
Speaker 1: a little different this time, but I'm not so sure.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's certainly a lot like going to Seattle.
Speaker 1: I can tell you that traffic on the one on
Speaker 1: one headed to that stadium. Yeah, you know, yeah, I
Speaker 1: mean if I was, if I was to San Francisco,
Speaker 1: and I think I would be staying home and watching
Speaker 1: it on TV. And I think probably a lot of
Speaker 1: them will, you know. So I'm not sure that they
Speaker 1: get the full home field advantage. But nonetheless, I think
Speaker 1: this game will go up. I think there's gonna be
Speaker 1: money for San Francisco, and I'm not sure it's the
Speaker 1: right side. I don't know what the right side is going.
Speaker 1: To be honest with you. You do think money will
Speaker 1: come in on San Francisco. That's interesting to me. Okay,
Speaker 1: despite all the Cleveland love, you think, Yeah, I do
Speaker 1: because I yeah, because I see juice on the favorite
Speaker 1: at three, and anybody with three and a half is
Speaker 1: getting juice on the dog. But yeah, I think listen,
Speaker 1: you know you're talking about muscle memory. I think it
Speaker 1: will be one of those muscle memory games. We've got
Speaker 1: a la the three because it's out there, because are higher,
Speaker 1: higher numbers when we could get so we have to
Speaker 1: weigh its memory will happen. We talk about a betting muscle.
Speaker 1: Memory talked about on the show all the time. We'll
Speaker 1: come back, we'll review it all, will isolate. The games
Speaker 1: we think we have the most advantage are at least
Speaker 1: the ones that we think there might be a possible
Speaker 1: edge on a first salvo. Don't hold it to us.
Speaker 1: We could. We could absolutely convince ourselves otherwise by Friday.
Speaker 1: But anyway, it's a first reaction. It's guessing lines. That's
Speaker 1: the point of this week five, the interactive game right
Speaker 1: here on a numbers game in FEASA. Welcome back to
Speaker 1: a numbers game with Jill Alexander. Okay, so here's what
Speaker 1: I think I like then, um, and that's the whole
Speaker 1: point of this, to figure out all right, we're going
Speaker 1: to start the week of handicapping Week five, and remember
Speaker 1: circu million, it's a brand new four weeks for everybody.
Speaker 1: You might have messed up the first four weeks. You
Speaker 1: might have gone home in twenty. Now's your chance to
Speaker 1: go twenty and seven. I like Chicago if they're only
Speaker 1: given four and a half in London against the Raiders.
Speaker 1: I like the Monsters of the midway there. If New
Speaker 1: England's only fourteen and a half or fifteen and a
Speaker 1: half against the Redskins, and I do mean only I
Speaker 1: kind of like New England called me square. The other
Speaker 1: ones I like, Minnesota is only four and a half
Speaker 1: at the Giants. I know it's Kirk Cousins, but Minnesota,
Speaker 1: if you can't cover four and a half against that outfit,
Speaker 1: to use Chrissy's word, give me the Vikings. And the
Speaker 1: other one I like is the Packers getting more than
Speaker 1: a field goal getting three and a half at Dallas
Speaker 1: if Davante Adams is playing. I like Green Bay's defense
Speaker 1: a lot this year. I will take the three and
Speaker 1: a half at Dallas in that game, Chris, what do
Speaker 1: you like laying only one at home that Rams? And
Speaker 1: you know I like the Packers as well, and you
Speaker 1: know Davanta Adams. I think it's gonna be a big difference.
Speaker 1: But as I'm talking to you, I said it was
Speaker 1: three and a half and four when we went through
Speaker 1: the numbers. Fours have pretty much disappeared, so it's all
Speaker 1: three and a half. I even see a little bit
Speaker 1: the juice on the dog in one spot, So I'm
Speaker 1: gonna open three and half. I think that's if you
Speaker 1: want to be green day. Probably bet him early number
Speaker 1: might go down. Yeah, and for those of his because
Speaker 1: his mic was off, Seattle was his other pick there
Speaker 1: Thursday night, Seattle given just a point. All right, Chris,
Speaker 1: I appreciate it as always. UM, hope to have you
Speaker 1: in studio soon. For those who are like, wait, we
Speaker 1: don't get a story, We're gonna do him once in
Speaker 1: a while this year, right, that's sort of once in
Speaker 1: a while whenever we come up to him. Yeah, you know,
Speaker 1: I know it sounds like I'm just you know, we're
Speaker 1: not at dinner. You know. I gotta keep it at
Speaker 1: you know, kind of in the time frame, so I
Speaker 1: need to rehearse it a little bit. Whenever we do
Speaker 1: these stories. You know, it's not like the old based
Speaker 1: on the podcast or I could take half an hour,
Speaker 1: you know. Now I gotta keep it a little tighter. Okay, Well,
Speaker 1: we appreciate it. UM feel better every day, man, Thank
Speaker 1: you for so much for the time. We'll put this
Speaker 1: in podcast form for everybody else who wants to hear
Speaker 1: it as well. Okay, the boot that Tupapa ba ba
Speaker 1: Bo