1 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 1: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. Hello, ladies and gentlemen, Friday, 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 1: December fourth year on Straight Fire, the best daily sports 3 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:24,599 Speaker 1: podcast on whatever. You listen to your podcast, whether that's iTunes, Spotify, 4 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:28,320 Speaker 1: I heart radio podcast. Thank you for listening. Another great 5 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 1: week here on the pod wraps up. We got a 6 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:34,160 Speaker 1: terrific interview with a bookmaker for the NFL. Will dive 7 00:00:34,200 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 1: into the best games for week thirteen. Your boys taking 8 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:39,640 Speaker 1: it on the chin the last couple of weeks. Don't 9 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:43,279 Speaker 1: worry great start to the season. We will rebound. Just 10 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,479 Speaker 1: one of those tough breaks here late in the season. 11 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 1: The books have adjusted, teens have adjusted, and my adjustments 12 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 1: have not been significant enough, but best bets. At the 13 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:56,600 Speaker 1: end of the podcast, UM, I want to quickly thank 14 00:00:56,640 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 1: you guys for all the great comments. It was a 15 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 1: diverse week of guests. We had a comedian. Earlier in 16 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:07,160 Speaker 1: the week, we had a NFL, former NFL player, former 17 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:10,960 Speaker 1: college football star Clinton portis Uh and today we bring 18 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:13,680 Speaker 1: in a bookmaker breaking down how the lines are made, 19 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:16,679 Speaker 1: what's going on in week thirteen. Hopefully we can get 20 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:19,759 Speaker 1: you guys profitable quickly. Just wanted to touch on one 21 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:23,040 Speaker 1: note there wasn't much news out there in sports. Thursday 22 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 1: kind of been a slow week unless you're enjoying college basketball, 23 00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:30,959 Speaker 1: which I am, and I'm also playing a little basketball myself. Um, 24 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:33,440 Speaker 1: just a little two on two. Uh, listen, I'd like 25 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:35,480 Speaker 1: to extend to three on three, four on four. If 26 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:38,479 Speaker 1: it's outdoors, I'm fine with it. I think you're good, 27 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 1: play with people you know, are being safe. And there's 28 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 1: no better sweat than basketball. Running is like an exhausting sweat. 29 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 1: Basketball is like a good sweat. You know you're working 30 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:50,920 Speaker 1: toward a goal, trying to win. I love me some 31 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 1: basketball in the NBA quickly wanted to say I saw this. 32 00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 1: The new Rockets coach, who's never been a head coach before. Okay, 33 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:02,720 Speaker 1: his father was Paul Silas, a NBA longtime NBA coach, 34 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 1: the coach of the Houston Rockets, came out and said 35 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 1: he's giving James Harden space because Harden has, you know, 36 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:15,480 Speaker 1: been upset with what happened this offseason in Houston. Darryl 37 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 1: Morey's gone, the coach, Mike d'antoni's gone. They just traded 38 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 1: Russell Westbrook, and Harden allegedly wants out and the head 39 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:25,800 Speaker 1: coach he's never been a head coach in the NBA 40 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:27,960 Speaker 1: before it comes out and says I'm giving him space, 41 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 1: like this is some frigging high school relationship. Uh, and 42 00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 1: someone's not handling it well or they're being courted by 43 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 1: another person, and I mean it's over. It is over. 44 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:41,640 Speaker 1: Like James Harden is checked out of Houston. Just do 45 00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 1: the deal. Um, I don't see what you're accomplishing keeping him. 46 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:47,880 Speaker 1: If his heart's not into it, his head is not 47 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 1: gonna be into it, his body's not gonna be into it. 48 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 1: We saw Kyrie Irving win a title in Cleveland demand 49 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:56,520 Speaker 1: out when they said why would you trade you? He said, 50 00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 1: I will say I'm going to get surgery on an 51 00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 1: injury and I'm not gonna play. Do you want it 52 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:03,200 Speaker 1: to get that ugly with Harden? Just ship about a town. 53 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:05,679 Speaker 1: I know you don't want to let the inmates run 54 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 1: the asylum, but it's bad for everyone. If you keep heart, 55 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:11,640 Speaker 1: get the best deal you can now, because if you 56 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 1: wait a year, you get less. But there's a hostage situation. Right, 57 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 1: you do the deal quickly. Okay, let's get a done. 58 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:20,959 Speaker 1: Boom boom, Okay, let's get the best we can move on. 59 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 1: Um Houston Rockets. Boy, what a disaster. All right, Let's 60 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:27,200 Speaker 1: get to our guest. His name is Johnny Avello, longtime 61 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 1: bookmaker in Vegas at the Win, he made a move 62 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:36,000 Speaker 1: inen to Draft Kings and the gambling space continues to 63 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 1: be just popping off. And let's get to a great 64 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:44,520 Speaker 1: chat about Week thirteen in the NFL with Johnny Avello. 65 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 1: Jason likes to think he knows everything when it comes 66 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 1: to sports. I know what sports stands want, but for 67 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 1: everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does. Let's 68 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:58,119 Speaker 1: just say I know a guy who knows a guy 69 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:02,360 Speaker 1: who knows another guy. All right, let's welcome into the podcast. 70 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:05,920 Speaker 1: A legend in Vegas, a living legend. He was at 71 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:09,840 Speaker 1: the Win for I believe thirteen years, and he moved 72 00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:15,600 Speaker 1: controversially to Draft Kings in eighteen. Johnny Avello, Johnny, how 73 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:18,080 Speaker 1: are you man? How are you on this fine Thursday 74 00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:21,799 Speaker 1: as we record getting ready for Week thirteen in the NFL. Jason, 75 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:25,240 Speaker 1: I'm doing excellent on his fine Thursday. Thank you. It's 76 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 1: been a crazy season in the NFL with games being 77 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:33,040 Speaker 1: moved and UH cancelations and games being scheduled for one 78 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:35,800 Speaker 1: week and playing a few weeks later. But hey, they're 79 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 1: getting them in and I'm happy about that. Yes, we 80 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:40,920 Speaker 1: all are. We'll get to week thirty thirteen in a bit, 81 00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:44,120 Speaker 1: but I wanna obviously, like listen, I've called this the 82 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:46,719 Speaker 1: gambling gold rush here in the last couple of years. 83 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 1: Everybody is jumping into the pool with both feet. You've 84 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 1: got the big players, Fox, you know, we're huge, ESPNS 85 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 1: in on it, CBS, NBC's making moves. Everybody is. And 86 00:04:58,480 --> 00:04:59,800 Speaker 1: I don't know if I want to call you a 87 00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:03,000 Speaker 1: tri trend center here, but in you had been at 88 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:06,560 Speaker 1: the win for thirteen years and you made a move 89 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 1: that kind of shocked everybody, said ripples throughout the industry. 90 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:13,160 Speaker 1: I'd like you to take me back toeen and what 91 00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 1: you saw and how you made that tough decision. Well, 92 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:19,360 Speaker 1: let's go prior to nine, two thousand and eighteen and 93 00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 1: uh five years prior to that, and you know, there 94 00:05:22,200 --> 00:05:27,479 Speaker 1: was buzz about a possible national sports betting bill that 95 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 1: could go through, but I just didn't see it. Um, 96 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 1: you know, I didn't see a path for it to 97 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:36,120 Speaker 1: get there. Now when passed but was overturned, Uh, that 98 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:38,600 Speaker 1: did it? And I actually wanted to be part of 99 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 1: that space. So, uh, when is a tremendous hotel. I 100 00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 1: left there on the best of terms. I respect everybody 101 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:50,159 Speaker 1: that works there, and uh, you know, all the customers 102 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:53,359 Speaker 1: I met along the way appreciate the business that they 103 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 1: had given us. But I think it was time for 104 00:05:57,040 --> 00:05:59,880 Speaker 1: me to move into this space. And obviously this space 105 00:05:59,920 --> 00:06:02,919 Speaker 1: is much bigger than just one property. I want to 106 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:05,520 Speaker 1: ask you what your colleague said to you. I mean, 107 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 1: are We had Brent Musburger on the podcast last month, 108 00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:09,599 Speaker 1: and you know we listened. We do a lot of 109 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 1: gambling here. And I gotta say, if two years ago 110 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:16,279 Speaker 1: somebody had told me you were leaving for Draft Kings, 111 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:18,760 Speaker 1: I would have looked at you like you had three heads. 112 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:22,640 Speaker 1: Uh did you get any whoa dude would? Are you 113 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 1: taking a chance? Is this worth the risk? Did you 114 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:27,600 Speaker 1: get any of that from your colleagues in Vegas? No? 115 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 1: I did not. Um, Hey, I'm sixty eight years old. 116 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 1: What risk a might take in at this point? Jason, 117 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:39,280 Speaker 1: So I didn't think it was a risk at all. 118 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 1: I saw what Draft Kings was. Uh. Their fantasy product 119 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:47,360 Speaker 1: was successful for many years. Uh, their sports product that 120 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:50,679 Speaker 1: when they launched it in July, you know, was doing 121 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:55,320 Speaker 1: the best numbers in the in the New Jersey jurisdiction. So, UM, 122 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:58,640 Speaker 1: I was in. I wasn't surprised at what was gonna happen. 123 00:06:58,839 --> 00:07:01,279 Speaker 1: I was sure of what was gonna happen, and I 124 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:03,720 Speaker 1: just wanted to be part of that company. Um. They 125 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:07,200 Speaker 1: actually came after and recruited me. Uh, and it was 126 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 1: quite an experience. So it only took about three meetings 127 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 1: and I was convinced. Wow. Uh, Now when you look 128 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:16,680 Speaker 1: at the landscape, how it's changed over the last three 129 00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 1: to four years. Uh. A lot of my friends say, hey, man, 130 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:22,880 Speaker 1: there's so much dumb money in there now. Uh, it's 131 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:25,720 Speaker 1: getting it's getting more difficult to bet because you don't 132 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:29,280 Speaker 1: know with this whole fade the public nonsense. Uh what 133 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 1: have you seen in the landscape the last three or 134 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 1: four years, the influx of money, Well, you know it's 135 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:39,520 Speaker 1: betting is Uh, it's an opportunity to have fun. Sure, 136 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 1: there's professionals out there that play, uh that you know, 137 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 1: that do it for a living, and there's a lot 138 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 1: most people out there just do it casually as for entertainment. 139 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:53,680 Speaker 1: So I think what I'm saying is what I've seen 140 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 1: for many, many years. Uh, the line may move one 141 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:03,480 Speaker 1: wave with the sophisticated betters, um and the general public. 142 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:06,760 Speaker 1: Sometimes they don't care that it's moved that way. From 143 00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:10,400 Speaker 1: sophisticated players. They like their side, their home team, or 144 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:14,680 Speaker 1: what have you. So sometimes it is a balance of 145 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 1: the you know, the pros versus the unsophisticated player, and 146 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:21,720 Speaker 1: they both get there in different ways. Let's talk about 147 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 1: closing line value for a second. A lot of top 148 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 1: you know, topical moment in sports this year gambling, It 149 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:31,360 Speaker 1: doesn't closing line value doesn't mean anything, Jason. You know, 150 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 1: for instance, this week, Week thirteen, UM Tennessee Titans came 151 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:37,720 Speaker 1: out and they were I believe it was. They opened 152 00:08:37,720 --> 00:08:40,080 Speaker 1: four point favorite, four and a half over the Browns, 153 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 1: and I quickly gobbled them up. That's a good play. 154 00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:46,440 Speaker 1: It's now up to six, and I don't know, all 155 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:49,240 Speaker 1: of a sudden, I'm having buyer's remorse. Uh, what are 156 00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:52,760 Speaker 1: you seeing in in closing line value specifically? And let's 157 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:56,200 Speaker 1: take this Titans Browns game and as an example. Well, 158 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:59,600 Speaker 1: you know, you you think you're you're getting the best 159 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:01,720 Speaker 1: of it when you make your bet, and then sometimes 160 00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 1: you find out that you didn't. But that's gonna happen 161 00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:08,040 Speaker 1: to everybody. Uh. You know, sometimes the game goes the 162 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:11,560 Speaker 1: you feel you're getting the best of it, and uh, 163 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:14,679 Speaker 1: the first thing you know that that game is twopen points. 164 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:19,080 Speaker 1: Pass what you what you took? Um happens to everybody. 165 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 1: But you don't worry about that. You keep doing what 166 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:24,600 Speaker 1: you do and you continue to try to get the 167 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 1: best number possible and hope you can win the game 168 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:30,439 Speaker 1: if you're on the right side. You're on the right side. Uh. 169 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:33,040 Speaker 1: And you're right about the number not coming into play. 170 00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:35,959 Speaker 1: A lot of times it really doesn't. The three is 171 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:38,839 Speaker 1: the most key number in the game. Most games are 172 00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:42,040 Speaker 1: gonna fall three. One at every seven games are gonna 173 00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 1: fall three, you know, and then then the best number 174 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 1: after that is seven. Uh so uh, these games don't fall, 175 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:51,520 Speaker 1: but you still have to try to get that better 176 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:53,959 Speaker 1: number because that half a point over the course of 177 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:56,960 Speaker 1: time is the difference between making and losing money. Yeah, 178 00:09:57,000 --> 00:09:59,160 Speaker 1: over the course of time is the phrase that matters, 179 00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:02,440 Speaker 1: because and how it is Johnny on social media right now, 180 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 1: everybody loves to be like, oh, hey, you you missed 181 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 1: a puy half a point. You were wrong, and you 182 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:10,280 Speaker 1: know I go back to the handicap. I feel like 183 00:10:10,280 --> 00:10:12,000 Speaker 1: I was on the right side. I would do that 184 00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 1: bet again. It may not have won this time, but 185 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 1: over the course the long haul you're on. That's the 186 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:19,559 Speaker 1: ticket you want to have in your pocket. Yeah, and 187 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:23,600 Speaker 1: remember another thing about numbers, like this game, the Tennessee 188 00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 1: Brown's game, right you you took four, went to five 189 00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:29,360 Speaker 1: five and a half. Now five and a half, five 190 00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:33,000 Speaker 1: five and a half aren't actually uh key numbers that 191 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 1: have never come into play on the NFL football until 192 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:40,920 Speaker 1: the two point convert. You know, the uh the kicks 193 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:44,200 Speaker 1: were spread out in the two point conversion became you know, 194 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 1: a thing that happens a couple of times during the 195 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 1: course of the game. So, um, there's been some since 196 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:53,560 Speaker 1: the rule changes, those numbers have become a little more key. 197 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 1: So under normal circumstances in the past that five didn't 198 00:10:56,880 --> 00:11:00,400 Speaker 1: mean anything. You took an okay number. But now that 199 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:03,240 Speaker 1: we've changed some of the rules of the game, more 200 00:11:03,320 --> 00:11:06,439 Speaker 1: so they do come into play. I'd like to specifically 201 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:09,680 Speaker 1: look Johnny at Rams Arizona this week. It seems to 202 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:12,080 Speaker 1: be paying between two and a half and three. Anytime 203 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:14,400 Speaker 1: it hits three, there's buy back and it's at two 204 00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:17,800 Speaker 1: and a half. I mean, can you just keep talking 205 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:20,040 Speaker 1: me through how you guys are handling a line like 206 00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 1: that um this week? Yeah, Well, well the game opened 207 00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:26,319 Speaker 1: one and a half and we are at two and 208 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:29,080 Speaker 1: a half, but with a little extra juice on the 209 00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 1: two and a half. So before we go to three, 210 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:35,200 Speaker 1: we're staying at the two and a half, and we're 211 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:38,280 Speaker 1: telling the customer, look, we're giving you a better number, 212 00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:43,200 Speaker 1: but you gotta lay versus one ten um or you can. 213 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:45,960 Speaker 1: You know, other places have the game three even money. 214 00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 1: So once you go to three, if you've committed and 215 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:53,720 Speaker 1: and you don't bounce back between three and two and 216 00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:56,080 Speaker 1: a half, once you go to three, you stay there 217 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:58,480 Speaker 1: for a longer amount of time. So we've elected not 218 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:01,040 Speaker 1: to go there yet, stay the two and a half 219 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:03,360 Speaker 1: and tell the player you can have it, but you 220 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:06,320 Speaker 1: gotta lay a little extra juice. Now, I'm sure the 221 00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:09,800 Speaker 1: average listeners saying, well, why can't why aren't you going? 222 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 1: Is there a reason you're not going to three? Because 223 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:15,319 Speaker 1: home field advantage supposedly is out the window this year. 224 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:17,160 Speaker 1: A lot of the numbers I've seen home field just 225 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:20,280 Speaker 1: doesn't matter. There's no fans in the stadium. Travel not 226 00:12:20,440 --> 00:12:24,480 Speaker 1: a major issue. Why why are we not getting three 227 00:12:24,520 --> 00:12:27,080 Speaker 1: with Arizona? Because I love Arizona getting a fuel goal, 228 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:30,080 Speaker 1: but at two and a half, I'm kind of wanted 229 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:33,839 Speaker 1: to stay away. Yeah, well, you know three is such 230 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:38,080 Speaker 1: a key number that, um that once we get there, Yeah, 231 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:40,600 Speaker 1: you want to take the three, but uh, you know 232 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,680 Speaker 1: we wanna we want to stop from going there before 233 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 1: we before we do have our our customers take three 234 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:50,079 Speaker 1: because once we get to three, we don't think they're 235 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 1: gonna bet the Rams anymore. Right, and you want to 236 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 1: even balance Okay, Yeah, I totally get why I'm not 237 00:12:56,440 --> 00:13:00,200 Speaker 1: getting that. Now how about how about the Chargers Patriots team? 238 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 1: This is absolutely fascinating. I was on the Chargers side 239 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 1: last week. Anthony Lynn continues to bungle any close situation. Um, 240 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:12,920 Speaker 1: he's going up against Belichick, greatest coach of all time, Johnny. 241 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:15,960 Speaker 1: All my numbers say the Chargers of the site here, 242 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:20,400 Speaker 1: But I can't get over the Belichick aspect where Belichick 243 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 1: against rookie quarterbacks some obscene number like twenty five and 244 00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:26,240 Speaker 1: twenty four and five. Straight up. I talked me through 245 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:29,800 Speaker 1: how you guys handled the line for this one. The 246 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:35,880 Speaker 1: tough because the Chargers, uh, you know, certainly, you know, 247 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:39,360 Speaker 1: not not playing up to their potential this year. And 248 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:41,760 Speaker 1: the Patriots aren't playing up to their potential this year. 249 00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 1: And when you talk about Belichick, uh, Belichick doesn't have 250 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:49,520 Speaker 1: the same quarterback he's had for many, many years. So 251 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:52,439 Speaker 1: I bet you this is one of the tougher years 252 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:54,720 Speaker 1: for him. He really has to come out with his 253 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:58,920 Speaker 1: coaching skills more than ever. Um, this is a game 254 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 1: we opened up the chart. There's a small favorite even 255 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 1: though they're only three and a uh, you know, three 256 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 1: and eight. But uh, the Patriots just haven't played that 257 00:14:07,640 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 1: well this season. Uh, the Chargers have lost a lot 258 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 1: of close games, games they could have won. And so 259 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:18,120 Speaker 1: we opened the game one and we're at a you know, 260 00:14:18,240 --> 00:14:21,160 Speaker 1: a pick right now. So not a lot of movement 261 00:14:21,200 --> 00:14:23,920 Speaker 1: in the game. Now, there's still maybe some more movement. 262 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:26,800 Speaker 1: The game may end up going to the Patriots won 263 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:29,280 Speaker 1: by the time it's all said and done, I want 264 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:31,680 Speaker 1: to ask you about something that's that's a big topic 265 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:34,440 Speaker 1: that's come up the last three of the last four weeks, 266 00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:37,280 Speaker 1: as the public has been just getting destroyed. Is this 267 00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:41,720 Speaker 1: whole Oh, there is eight five percent of the tickets 268 00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:45,720 Speaker 1: is on one side in the next game is on 269 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:48,120 Speaker 1: one side, and the public happens to be on the 270 00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:50,720 Speaker 1: side of the public doesn't want to bet underdogs. You 271 00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:54,120 Speaker 1: know this, You've been doing this forever. Um. This Chargers 272 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:56,480 Speaker 1: Patriots game to me is shaping up as one where 273 00:14:56,800 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 1: ain't nobody coming in to any book and king the 274 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:02,560 Speaker 1: Chargers here, right? We know they're all gonna be on 275 00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 1: the Patriots. I'm just curious, how do you quantify, if 276 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:10,640 Speaker 1: you're a gambler, how much that matters are not? Well, 277 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 1: you know when you speak that way, you say, everybody's 278 00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 1: gonna be on the Patriot side. Um, and that's probably 279 00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:24,640 Speaker 1: the abundance of money probably is, but for for for bookmakers, 280 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 1: you know, the reason we open a line at a 281 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:31,120 Speaker 1: certain number is because we go by our power ratings UM. 282 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:34,160 Speaker 1: And then you take your power ratings and you look 283 00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 1: at the injuries or COVID or um, any other thing 284 00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:41,960 Speaker 1: that may influence the game. There's a lot of intangibles there, 285 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:45,440 Speaker 1: how they've done against each other over the last you know, 286 00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 1: season or so, or if they played each other this year. 287 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:52,000 Speaker 1: Yet when it comes to division type of play and 288 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:55,400 Speaker 1: then we post the number, Now, people there's a lot 289 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 1: of chatter that takes place during the course of a weekend. Boy, 290 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 1: that's the this is the right side. That's the right side. 291 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:04,240 Speaker 1: But as a bookmaker, we don't care. You know, we 292 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 1: just don't care. Uh. The name of the game for 293 00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:10,480 Speaker 1: a bookmaker is the vigori ish um. If you take 294 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:14,240 Speaker 1: the equal equal amount of money on both sides of 295 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:17,000 Speaker 1: the game, which rarely happens. Uh, you know, we're gonna 296 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:19,080 Speaker 1: make money in that game because it had vigorous but 297 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:21,600 Speaker 1: over the course of time, and we just spoke about 298 00:16:21,640 --> 00:16:25,680 Speaker 1: that before for the player, for the bookmaker, it works 299 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 1: the same way. Over the course of time, your losses 300 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:32,520 Speaker 1: are gonna be less than your wins are gonna be 301 00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 1: bigger than what your losses are, and that's what you 302 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:38,240 Speaker 1: work on. So yeah, I don't you know, people could say, well, 303 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:40,440 Speaker 1: that game went to two or why did you open 304 00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 1: it pick and maybe it was a mistake. Maybe it 305 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 1: was so maybe you know, we make errors and making 306 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 1: putting up the wrong number. But for the most part, 307 00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:52,400 Speaker 1: um these games play out and all that chatters between 308 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:56,080 Speaker 1: the betters and the and social media, and for bookmakers, 309 00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:59,760 Speaker 1: I don't care. So so social media will say, well, 310 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:03,600 Speaker 1: wait a sec. If the House says that of the 311 00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:06,359 Speaker 1: money in this game is on the Patriots, the house 312 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 1: is rooting for the Chargers, right, the house needs the Chargers. 313 00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 1: But again, that's like one of those weird discussions where 314 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:16,680 Speaker 1: it's like, okay, but maybe that's a one million dollars swing. 315 00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:19,639 Speaker 1: Let's I'm just tossing out of a easy number, a 316 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:22,080 Speaker 1: million dollars swing on the Chargers game. In the grand 317 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:24,640 Speaker 1: scheme of things, that's nothing for you, guys, right, No, 318 00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:28,200 Speaker 1: you're right. And if I had if I had six 319 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:31,160 Speaker 1: games out of the whole slate event, let's say, if 320 00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:35,400 Speaker 1: I had the whole slate of the NFL games on 321 00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:38,399 Speaker 1: one side and ten percent on the other, that's okay, 322 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:42,479 Speaker 1: we have to do right, right, So do do you 323 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:45,200 Speaker 1: think when because this is a big narrative that's out there, Johnny, 324 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:48,399 Speaker 1: I know you've seen it, like, hey, man, of the 325 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:50,159 Speaker 1: people are on the vikings, you want to be on 326 00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:53,840 Speaker 1: the other side. When you hear something like that, what 327 00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:56,000 Speaker 1: do you tell a young better who you know? Is 328 00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:58,000 Speaker 1: it maybe a guy right out of college who just 329 00:17:58,080 --> 00:17:59,919 Speaker 1: doesn't know any better? What what do you say, ignore 330 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 1: that handicap at yourself? What do you tell them Oh boy, 331 00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:06,320 Speaker 1: I've been I've been, Jason, I've been hearing this for years. Yeah. 332 00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:10,040 Speaker 1: How the public's on one side, so go on the other? 333 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:14,159 Speaker 1: Uh or you know so I just I don't. I 334 00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:17,159 Speaker 1: don't think you handicapped that way. I don't think you 335 00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:20,160 Speaker 1: follow the crowd. I think you handicapped because you've done 336 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:22,480 Speaker 1: a little bit of research. You've looked at both teams. 337 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:25,120 Speaker 1: You know who's playing in the game. You know how 338 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:27,040 Speaker 1: a team does against the run, you know how they 339 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:29,439 Speaker 1: do against the past, you know about their special teams. 340 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:33,040 Speaker 1: You've done your handicap and in you've made your bet 341 00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:36,000 Speaker 1: based on that, whether it's the favorite of the dog. Um. 342 00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:38,959 Speaker 1: I don't think it's Why is to follow the crowd, 343 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:42,639 Speaker 1: because that means you're just you're a follower and haven't 344 00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,240 Speaker 1: done any homework so to speak. Yeah, I would agree 345 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:47,960 Speaker 1: or fade the crowd. Now that being said, Johnny, is 346 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,879 Speaker 1: there a side and it's only Thursday where there is 347 00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 1: a big exposure to the book this week where you 348 00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 1: could have you know, if we don't, if everybody in 349 00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 1: their mom but this they still be a three million 350 00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 1: dollar lost for us. Is there a Is there a 351 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:04,000 Speaker 1: side yet this week that has that look or anything 352 00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:06,440 Speaker 1: close to it. Well, I can tell you who we're 353 00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:08,440 Speaker 1: gonna end up needing by the time it's all said 354 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:10,640 Speaker 1: and done this week. But you take a game like 355 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:12,879 Speaker 1: the Saints that we opened up three and a half 356 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,800 Speaker 1: at Atlanta, that game is down to two and a half. 357 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:19,480 Speaker 1: Now we've skipped over not only three, but now two 358 00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:21,919 Speaker 1: and a half. Now, what I feel is gonna happen 359 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:24,119 Speaker 1: is that the money is gonna come back on the 360 00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:27,560 Speaker 1: Saints in this game. I kind of know how people 361 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:31,200 Speaker 1: play the Saints, and at nine and two versus four 362 00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:34,000 Speaker 1: and seven team laying less than a field goal, they're 363 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:36,720 Speaker 1: gonna bet the Saints. And so if the Saints win 364 00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 1: that game by three, it falls dead in the middle. 365 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:43,240 Speaker 1: So we've paid all the three and a half, we've 366 00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 1: refunded all the threes we lay paid everybody at late 367 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:48,359 Speaker 1: two and a half, and that puts us in a 368 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:52,320 Speaker 1: precarious situation. Oh boy, So shaping up as a as 369 00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:55,400 Speaker 1: a as a risky middle there for you guys, that's correct. 370 00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 1: And so so now that's the kind of stuff that 371 00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:00,240 Speaker 1: keeps me up at night. You know, Yes, yes, have 372 00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:03,800 Speaker 1: there been many. I don't remember any of those last 373 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:06,000 Speaker 1: week I'm trying to think, but have you guys been 374 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:08,440 Speaker 1: middled a lot this season? This has been a whacky year. 375 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:11,640 Speaker 1: Not too bad. We tried to hold numbers as long 376 00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:14,439 Speaker 1: as we can. We try not to cross key numbers. 377 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:16,480 Speaker 1: We try to stay as long as we can on 378 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:20,240 Speaker 1: a number, even if we're so called buried on that side. 379 00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:22,880 Speaker 1: You know. So let me let me drill down on Saints, 380 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:26,000 Speaker 1: uh Falcons for a second. I'm assuming you guys were 381 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 1: willing to go through the three because it was big 382 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 1: respected money from people or groups that that you know, 383 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,240 Speaker 1: are perceived to be sharp betters. You're not gonna move 384 00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:38,359 Speaker 1: it down on. You know, me and my producer go 385 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:40,520 Speaker 1: in there and all of our friends and put down 386 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 1: money on on the falcons. You're not moving it on. 387 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:46,280 Speaker 1: That Was it big money that put it through the three? Yeah, 388 00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:48,560 Speaker 1: it was definitely sharp money that got us down to 389 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:51,880 Speaker 1: that um. And and it's not it's not so much 390 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:55,640 Speaker 1: that it's big money. Uh. One thing that I can 391 00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:58,520 Speaker 1: tell you in the business is that sharps don't always 392 00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:02,639 Speaker 1: bet your full limit. But when sharp's bet, you move um. 393 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:06,399 Speaker 1: And so we moved and now we're at a number 394 00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:09,400 Speaker 1: where we're kind of on there's will end up being 395 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 1: on their side when when this game kicks off on Sunday. Interesting. Okay, 396 00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 1: so Saints Falcons is one. Are there any others that 397 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 1: could be risky for the for the book? Uh? The 398 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:24,800 Speaker 1: one game I saw that I was the the forty 399 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:29,679 Speaker 1: Niners game. Kind of kind of an interesting game, you know, 400 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 1: the forty Niners are playing the Bills, and we actually 401 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:37,360 Speaker 1: moved that game from the Bills. Uh tun a alf 402 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:39,880 Speaker 1: point favorite. We are now down at a pick kind 403 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:43,960 Speaker 1: of game, you know, and kind of a strange game. 404 00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:47,200 Speaker 1: You know, the forty Niners don't really have home field advantage. 405 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:51,480 Speaker 1: It's more of a neutral game, you know, playing in Arizona. Yeah, 406 00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:54,119 Speaker 1: I guess you might call him the Arizona forty Niners 407 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:57,240 Speaker 1: for for a few weeks. But you know, so that 408 00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:59,439 Speaker 1: game moved down to two and a half to pick it. 409 00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:02,919 Speaker 1: It looks like the Sharps do like the forty Niners 410 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:05,479 Speaker 1: in this spot. Now, the footy Niners haven't you know, 411 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,439 Speaker 1: played the season that everybody expected them to. But the 412 00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:11,520 Speaker 1: Bills shure have. Uh, but the forty Niners are still 413 00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:13,679 Speaker 1: in the hunt. I think they're getting a little healthier. 414 00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:16,119 Speaker 1: Although I did look at their roster. They're still banged 415 00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 1: up pretty good, so you know there, but this is 416 00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:22,160 Speaker 1: a game that UM that also had sharp movement on 417 00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:25,760 Speaker 1: it early in the week. I'm just curious if there's 418 00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:27,879 Speaker 1: people listening and they're saying, well, what's a sharp? How 419 00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:30,880 Speaker 1: do you define as sharp? Is it? You know your 420 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:33,119 Speaker 1: buddy over here, you've you've known for a while, and 421 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:36,000 Speaker 1: you just respect him because he comes in and consistently 422 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 1: on Sundays he wins, because wins in the NFL is what. Yeah, 423 00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:44,359 Speaker 1: sharp to me is not a guy that consistently wins, 424 00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:47,280 Speaker 1: but a sharp will consistently win. A sharp is a 425 00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:52,800 Speaker 1: guy who gets the best number uh most of the time. Uh. 426 00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:55,639 Speaker 1: And so by getting the best number, he increases his 427 00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:59,040 Speaker 1: chances to win. And so that's how a sharp is 428 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:03,520 Speaker 1: defined by me. It's somebody who consistently when they bet 429 00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:07,159 Speaker 1: get the best of it. Is there a team or 430 00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:09,600 Speaker 1: teams that, Johnny, that you've seen this season that have 431 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:13,639 Speaker 1: maybe gone and become sharp teams? I know the Vikings 432 00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:17,280 Speaker 1: started out very poorly, UM, and it seems like in 433 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:20,720 Speaker 1: recent weeks, of course, Carolina notwithstanding, they look like a 434 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:23,440 Speaker 1: team that have been bet on. But they don't always deliver. 435 00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:26,920 Speaker 1: There was the Dallas debacle, or maybe Minnesota just isn't 436 00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:28,840 Speaker 1: a sharp team. But is there anyone out there that 437 00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:32,280 Speaker 1: you've seen any teams that they're gravitating towards. No, because 438 00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:36,399 Speaker 1: that's not what the sharps do. They they do not 439 00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:40,680 Speaker 1: consistently play on a team unless the bookmaker hasn't caught 440 00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:44,399 Speaker 1: up on something. Uh. If the bookmakers behind on, maybe 441 00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:47,119 Speaker 1: a total on a team because the team is a 442 00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,280 Speaker 1: lot of offensive production sharp see it, but the but 443 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,800 Speaker 1: the bookmakers haven't caught up to it yet. That's possible 444 00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:57,240 Speaker 1: to see a team total get bet on for a 445 00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:01,480 Speaker 1: few weeks in a row. But the side, Um, Usually 446 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:05,800 Speaker 1: that's not how they play. They're playing individual games, individual 447 00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:09,119 Speaker 1: teams week by week, and it varies. What about a 448 00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:11,800 Speaker 1: team like Miami, Uh, they went on like a five 449 00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:15,200 Speaker 1: game a t S winning streak. I was fortunate enough 450 00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,119 Speaker 1: to be on that for four of them. Uh. You 451 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:19,800 Speaker 1: could kind of see it when they got healthy. Uh 452 00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:22,960 Speaker 1: in the secondary specifically, and then Flores started to get it. 453 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 1: It started clicking for him with the with the heavy 454 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:27,720 Speaker 1: blitz is um, did you are they a team? You 455 00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:31,000 Speaker 1: guys have adjusted significantly in your power rankings yeah, you know, 456 00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:34,359 Speaker 1: they've never been a bad team. This year, Uh you know, 457 00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,359 Speaker 1: with Fitzpatrick, he was actually playing pretty well, but the 458 00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:41,120 Speaker 1: coach decided to go with two and he thought that's 459 00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:43,679 Speaker 1: the future of the team. So he figures, I'm I 460 00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:46,320 Speaker 1: think he's ready to go, and obviously, uh, you know, 461 00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:50,040 Speaker 1: he's gone out there and delivered. Um, it's funny. Miami 462 00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:54,280 Speaker 1: is a funny story because last year, uh, and not 463 00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:56,680 Speaker 1: too far from where we are now, a year ago, 464 00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,680 Speaker 1: they were talking about my it was probably more in November, 465 00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:02,320 Speaker 1: they were talking about Miami being the worst team ever 466 00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 1: in the NFL. And look at Miami now, had they 467 00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,720 Speaker 1: turned it around? You know, um, you know, seven and 468 00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:11,800 Speaker 1: four team on the brink of making possibly going to 469 00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:14,480 Speaker 1: the playoffs, possibly win in the a f C East. 470 00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:17,840 Speaker 1: So um, it's a remarkable story. And here they are 471 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,679 Speaker 1: eleven and a half point favorite over the Bengals this week. Uh. 472 00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,159 Speaker 1: You know, I haven't seen numbers like that on on 473 00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:26,040 Speaker 1: Dolphins favorite in a very long time. It's almost like 474 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,359 Speaker 1: it's a bit of a sketchy number. How the Miami 475 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:31,560 Speaker 1: Dolphins favored by eleven and a half over anyone. Uh, Johnny, 476 00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:34,280 Speaker 1: I'll get you out of here on this. Uh, everybody's 477 00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:36,520 Speaker 1: gonna be betting the Chiefs obviously to win the Super Bowl. 478 00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:39,160 Speaker 1: But is there a team out there that you've seen 479 00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,520 Speaker 1: any sharp action on future bets um to win the 480 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:47,399 Speaker 1: Super Bowl. I wouldn't say sharp, uh so much, because 481 00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:50,199 Speaker 1: none of these teams have actually been that high. But 482 00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:53,720 Speaker 1: the Saints have drawn quite a bit of money as 483 00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:57,359 Speaker 1: well as the Packers have. Um. You know, as we 484 00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:59,879 Speaker 1: take teams and raise them up, because that's what you 485 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,040 Speaker 1: do in futures. When you lower teams, you have to 486 00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:06,600 Speaker 1: raise teams. You can't keep lowering everybody because you take 487 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:09,200 Speaker 1: all the value out of the future book. So as 488 00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:12,560 Speaker 1: we raised teams back up, we'll get play on those teams. 489 00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:14,920 Speaker 1: Like Seattle. We raised it Seattle back up and we 490 00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:18,960 Speaker 1: got play on Seattle. Um. You know, teams like the 491 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:21,639 Speaker 1: Dolphins were a really good price at one time. The 492 00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings were two hundred to one just a few 493 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,080 Speaker 1: weeks ago. Now, they got a long way to go 494 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:28,240 Speaker 1: to get there, but at least you know they're they're 495 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:31,119 Speaker 1: at least in the in the conversation. So if you've 496 00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:33,879 Speaker 1: got two hundred, that's a good value because you know 497 00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:38,199 Speaker 1: they're the right price on them now is one. So 498 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:41,000 Speaker 1: that's what you look for during the course of the season. 499 00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:45,000 Speaker 1: You look for the value, uh, because the bookmakers raising 500 00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:48,760 Speaker 1: prices to get money on other teams because they're overloaded 501 00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:52,520 Speaker 1: on other teams. We're heading into one the pandemic is 502 00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:56,080 Speaker 1: expected to end. Where do you see sports gambling headed 503 00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:58,399 Speaker 1: or he's gonna see a ton of states all of 504 00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:00,959 Speaker 1: a sudden say bring it on us, do sports gambling. 505 00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:04,200 Speaker 1: Do you see Vegas kind of exploding and popping again? Oh, 506 00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:07,639 Speaker 1: definitely Vegas is gonna explode again. Um, you know, probably 507 00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:11,720 Speaker 1: towards more of May June area. Um, it's been a 508 00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:14,800 Speaker 1: tough year in Las Vegas. I mean it's uh, it's 509 00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:17,760 Speaker 1: the capital world, not all entertainment, capital world, not only 510 00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:21,760 Speaker 1: for sports betting, but all types of gambling shows. Uh 511 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:25,119 Speaker 1: and all the amendities that it provides. But they'll be back, um, 512 00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:27,160 Speaker 1: and you know, look for that to happen in twenty one. 513 00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,760 Speaker 1: As far as DraftKings, we're just gonna continue to grow. Um. 514 00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,520 Speaker 1: You know, we're gonna be in Michigan soon, We're gonna 515 00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:36,840 Speaker 1: be in other states. This will be other states that 516 00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:40,000 Speaker 1: will gonna opening up sports betting and you know we'll 517 00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:44,040 Speaker 1: go anywhere, will someone will have us, and I think 518 00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:47,520 Speaker 1: I think everyone's interested in having us. So, uh, this 519 00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:50,159 Speaker 1: thing is gonna grow and it's gonna be eventually in 520 00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:54,320 Speaker 1: just about every state, all right. Johnny Avello, bookmaker to 521 00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:56,880 Speaker 1: the stars, He's been around forever. Johnny, thanks a lot 522 00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:58,920 Speaker 1: for your time and enjoy the games. You're welcome to Jason, 523 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:03,800 Speaker 1: thank you. The only thing better than sitting on your 524 00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:08,159 Speaker 1: couch watching the game. He's making money while you do it. 525 00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:15,240 Speaker 1: Here's your best bat great stuff from Johnny Avello, kingmaker 526 00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:20,000 Speaker 1: in Vegas once upon a time now with DraftKings setting lines. Folks, listen, 527 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:24,040 Speaker 1: if the books get middled on this Saints Falcons game, boy, 528 00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:26,239 Speaker 1: that is gonna be you gotta you gotta love it 529 00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:29,080 Speaker 1: right that the Dwyane Wade, Jeff, I love it. You 530 00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:33,360 Speaker 1: love to see it. Um. I do like Week thirteen 531 00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:36,760 Speaker 1: a lot in some aspects, but I have to listen. 532 00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:40,880 Speaker 1: I'm complete candor with you, guys, total honesty. I ask 533 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:43,320 Speaker 1: it for my athletes and coaches, and I try to 534 00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:48,040 Speaker 1: give it to you. Guys. Don't pull punches, and sometimes 535 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:50,440 Speaker 1: the losses get in your head. And I had such 536 00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:52,480 Speaker 1: a good run again I was up to eighteenth in 537 00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:56,120 Speaker 1: the circuit contest before the bottom fell out, and since 538 00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:58,160 Speaker 1: then you just start overthinking it. You know, you can 539 00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:01,240 Speaker 1: see the field, you can see everything clearly, and now 540 00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:02,880 Speaker 1: all of a sudden it's a little fuzzy. You start 541 00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:06,560 Speaker 1: to doubt yourself. But I'm starting to get a good 542 00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:10,560 Speaker 1: vibe about week thirteen, and I do think I'm gonna 543 00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:14,360 Speaker 1: change one thing up. Um, I haven't given out a 544 00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:18,680 Speaker 1: teaser yet this year on the Best Bet here on 545 00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:21,280 Speaker 1: the podcast. Now, of course I've done teaser bets all season. 546 00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:24,000 Speaker 1: Teasers can be profitable. You want to get through the 547 00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:26,240 Speaker 1: key numbers of three and seven. So we're gonna get 548 00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:28,960 Speaker 1: started with a big money teaser here. This one. You 549 00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:32,400 Speaker 1: know it's gonna sting if it doesn't hit. Um, I'm 550 00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:36,480 Speaker 1: doing a four team seven point teaser. So for the 551 00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,560 Speaker 1: amateurs out there, you know, it's plus one twenty on 552 00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:42,480 Speaker 1: the on the big and I'm taking first of all 553 00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:45,320 Speaker 1: the chargers. As we look at the lines Friday morning 554 00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:49,440 Speaker 1: here from pick to plus seven. I know that it's 555 00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:53,440 Speaker 1: risky to back Anthony Lynn in any way, shape or form, 556 00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:55,760 Speaker 1: But the best stat I can give you this year 557 00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,320 Speaker 1: on Anthony Lennon the Chargers. They are ten and one 558 00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:02,600 Speaker 1: against the sp read on six point teasers. The only 559 00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:06,800 Speaker 1: loss was against Carolina when they were big favorites and 560 00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:08,560 Speaker 1: they ended up losing by five. Remember they had the 561 00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:10,800 Speaker 1: hook and later role at the end of the game 562 00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:13,560 Speaker 1: where the pitch was not on point or he would 563 00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:15,960 Speaker 1: have scored. He was like at the twenty yard line. 564 00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:18,840 Speaker 1: And that was the only teaser leg they didn't cover 565 00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:21,280 Speaker 1: every other game they're in because Justin Herbert's a money 566 00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:23,680 Speaker 1: player and they have great skill position players. All that's 567 00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:27,480 Speaker 1: holding them mac is Anthony Lynn. So I'm taking the 568 00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:30,480 Speaker 1: Chargers from pick them to plus seven getting a touchdown 569 00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:33,120 Speaker 1: at home. I know I've seen the number. Bill Belichick 570 00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:36,400 Speaker 1: is twenty five and four straight up against rookie quarterbacks. 571 00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:39,040 Speaker 1: Blah blah blah. Second leg of the teaser, This one 572 00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:43,000 Speaker 1: scares me a little bit. Raiders from their favored by 573 00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:45,560 Speaker 1: nine against the Jets. Right now, I'm taking that down 574 00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:47,800 Speaker 1: to two. I don't trust the Raiders. I don't trust 575 00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:50,840 Speaker 1: John Gruden on the road. I have historically faded him 576 00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:53,280 Speaker 1: on the road because he hates to travel. One of 577 00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:56,280 Speaker 1: the easiest bets last year was the Raiders going to London. 578 00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,920 Speaker 1: He just doesn't like to travel, and he doesn't travel well. 579 00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:02,880 Speaker 1: They did not travel well against the Falcons, they did 580 00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:05,760 Speaker 1: not travel well against the Patriots earlier this year. And 581 00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:08,920 Speaker 1: there's a small chance they lose this to the Jets. 582 00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:11,720 Speaker 1: So I'm taking it down to Raiders minus too. I'm 583 00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:14,000 Speaker 1: not taking Raiders and Survivor because I think they could 584 00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:16,680 Speaker 1: lose this game. Honestly, I'm not doing it. So Chargers 585 00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:19,800 Speaker 1: to plus seven, Raiders to minus two, Seahawks from ten 586 00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:24,720 Speaker 1: to three, and Colte McCoy is a veteran UM, I don't. 587 00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:27,320 Speaker 1: I think Seattle comes out a little lethargic, but ultimately 588 00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:29,840 Speaker 1: can pull away and win this easily. Their defense is 589 00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:32,320 Speaker 1: what I'm gonna watch here. If they can bottle up 590 00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:36,440 Speaker 1: the inept Giants offense, I will start to feel really 591 00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:41,800 Speaker 1: good about Seattle. Um. The Giants can be dangerous through 592 00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:45,040 Speaker 1: the year. They have some weapons. Evan Ingram's a good player. Um, 593 00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:47,880 Speaker 1: the receivers are solid. I just don't think Colpe McCoy 594 00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:50,160 Speaker 1: can getting done. So I'm taking the Seahawks down from 595 00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:54,760 Speaker 1: ten to three, and finally the forty Niners. And you 596 00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:59,320 Speaker 1: heard Mr Avello earlier, they probably will end up favorites. Well, 597 00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:00,960 Speaker 1: you know here in this Friday morning, and the forty 598 00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:03,080 Speaker 1: Niners are favored by one at one of the shops 599 00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,080 Speaker 1: that I gamble at, So I'm going to tease them 600 00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:08,840 Speaker 1: up to plus six against Buffalo. Now, listen, Nick Mullins 601 00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:11,080 Speaker 1: is a kind of guy who could easily have a 602 00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,400 Speaker 1: fumble or pick six in the fourth quarter to really 603 00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:16,000 Speaker 1: end it. So there is some risk there, but I'm 604 00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:19,320 Speaker 1: just trusting Deebo Samuel plays. Gosh. If he doesn't play, 605 00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:22,040 Speaker 1: man don't make this beat guys. If Deebo Samuel doesn't play, 606 00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:25,240 Speaker 1: I don't know where the offense comes from. Honestly, Brandon Ayuk, 607 00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:28,760 Speaker 1: really you trust in a rookie um. So that's my teaser. 608 00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:33,960 Speaker 1: Five dollars to win. Six hundred Chargers plus seven Raiders 609 00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:38,320 Speaker 1: minus two Seahawks minus three forty Niners plus six. So 610 00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:41,520 Speaker 1: that's bet number one. The other three are just straight up. 611 00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:44,160 Speaker 1: I'm taking the Colts favored by three and a half 612 00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:46,960 Speaker 1: against Houston. I have flip flopped on this as soon 613 00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:48,840 Speaker 1: as the news came out that Will Fuller's out with 614 00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:52,200 Speaker 1: p e v s and Bradley Roby's out there basically 615 00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:55,880 Speaker 1: their best offensive player outside of Watson. Of course, they're 616 00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,520 Speaker 1: bell scale position player Fuller and their best defensive back 617 00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:01,800 Speaker 1: in Bradley Roby. Like you're gonna be in trouble against 618 00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:04,600 Speaker 1: the Colts now, I know the Colts injury report is 619 00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:07,400 Speaker 1: something you're gonna have to monitor all weekend. Again, I'm 620 00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:10,000 Speaker 1: not saying lay this bet right now because I want 621 00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:13,440 Speaker 1: to know what's going on with the linebacker Okaiki Okay, 622 00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:17,600 Speaker 1: we know Buckner's back, we know Autry's back, Jonathan Taylor's back. 623 00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:20,520 Speaker 1: What's going on with Costanzo on the offensive line? That's 624 00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:23,800 Speaker 1: a significant one. Is the center going to play? Gotta 625 00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:26,240 Speaker 1: check the Colt injury report. If they're fully healthy, I 626 00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:28,880 Speaker 1: think they win this game handily. Defense is very good, 627 00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:32,560 Speaker 1: Watson's offensive options are limited. I like the Colts. I 628 00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:35,280 Speaker 1: hate the hook, but I'll take them minus three and 629 00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:38,640 Speaker 1: a half and um Again, if some of these guys 630 00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,080 Speaker 1: that didn't play last week, they were down five starters, 631 00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:43,840 Speaker 1: I believe I would not advocate back in this. I'm 632 00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:48,320 Speaker 1: going on the anticipation based on practice supports here through Thursday, 633 00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:51,160 Speaker 1: as we record this Friday morning, that the Colts should 634 00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:52,760 Speaker 1: be able to cover three and a half this one's 635 00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:55,680 Speaker 1: a little risky. I'm taking Washington getting eight and a 636 00:33:55,720 --> 00:34:00,120 Speaker 1: half um ten days rest here for Alex Smith and 637 00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:05,280 Speaker 1: Antonio Gibson and scary Terry McLaurin. Meanwhile, Steelers coming off 638 00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:09,080 Speaker 1: a difficult win over the Ravens, and I will note 639 00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:12,360 Speaker 1: this the last time. Anytime the Steelers play the Ravens, 640 00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:15,320 Speaker 1: it's a physical affair, it's a rivalry game. Get amped 641 00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:18,040 Speaker 1: for it, and there's a long come down period. After 642 00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:22,160 Speaker 1: the last Ravens game, the Steelers came out and in 643 00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:25,120 Speaker 1: the first half against Dallas, they were throttled. They let 644 00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:27,240 Speaker 1: they trailed until the fourth quarter and when they stormed 645 00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:31,200 Speaker 1: back and beat the Cowboys by five. At Washington's got 646 00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:34,200 Speaker 1: a better defense than Dallas does, and if they can 647 00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:37,920 Speaker 1: just contain and keep it close, I think Antonio Gibson 648 00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:39,520 Speaker 1: on the ground can do a lot of damage. Okay, 649 00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:41,799 Speaker 1: we've seen the Cowboys rushed for over a hundred twenty 650 00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:44,600 Speaker 1: yards against the Steelers. Ravens rushed for over two hundred 651 00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:46,920 Speaker 1: yards in that first meeting. They can be had on 652 00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:49,240 Speaker 1: the ground, and I think this is a sandwich spot. 653 00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:52,000 Speaker 1: I mentioned this on Talk to Line Thursday with Jeff 654 00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:55,719 Speaker 1: Swartz for Fox Sports. Um. Next week, Steelers have the 655 00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:59,080 Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills. That's gonna be a huge game with major 656 00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:02,680 Speaker 1: playoff implication in the a f C. If the Pittsburgh 657 00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:05,279 Speaker 1: Steelers lose to the Bills, that opens the door for 658 00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:07,480 Speaker 1: Kansas City to swoop in and get the number one seed. 659 00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:11,040 Speaker 1: And that by okay. Pittsburgh of course, kind of feeling 660 00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:14,399 Speaker 1: gutted losing Bud Dupree. Obviously they still have t J. Watt, 661 00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:17,040 Speaker 1: Minka Fitzpatrick in the secondary. But eight and a halfs 662 00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:19,080 Speaker 1: a big number. And I know you're gonna say, well, Jay, 663 00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:22,799 Speaker 1: Pittsburgh covered easily against Jacksonville. Yeah, Jake Luton, I know. 664 00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:26,920 Speaker 1: And Pittsburgh covered easily against um Joe Burrow, Yeah, I 665 00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:29,879 Speaker 1: get that. I saw that divisional matchup. Familiarity was there, 666 00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:33,680 Speaker 1: no doubt? Um, this is coming off. Ravens builds up 667 00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:37,640 Speaker 1: ahead at Washington, a lot of extra time to prepare. 668 00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:40,840 Speaker 1: I think Washington could cover eight and a half. I 669 00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:43,400 Speaker 1: don't love Alex Smith, and I've been wrong about the 670 00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:47,000 Speaker 1: Redskins a lot this year. Sorry, the Washington Football Club. Um, 671 00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:51,440 Speaker 1: and if you look at that Dallas UM Thanksgiving game, folks, 672 00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:54,880 Speaker 1: Washington may have blown them out, but look closely at 673 00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:58,560 Speaker 1: the box score. They had three drives of twenty five 674 00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:01,880 Speaker 1: yards are less result against and team points. Yea getting 675 00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:06,560 Speaker 1: those short fields against Pittsburgh. Okay, Dallas failing on fourth down, um, 676 00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:11,759 Speaker 1: the dumb fake punt Like Pittsburgh doesn't make that many 677 00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:14,160 Speaker 1: mistakes like that. Dallas is a mistake prone team. And 678 00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:16,239 Speaker 1: then they had to pick six at the end. So 679 00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:19,160 Speaker 1: that right there is like twenty four or forty one points. 680 00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:22,439 Speaker 1: I mean, Washington is gonna have to keep this close 681 00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:24,880 Speaker 1: in the first half and then ride Gibson on the ground. 682 00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:26,880 Speaker 1: Man that gets tough. I like his I like the 683 00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:30,400 Speaker 1: cut of Antonio Gibson's jip. So I took Washington plus 684 00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:32,920 Speaker 1: eight and a half. And finally, and this is the 685 00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:37,600 Speaker 1: Jason McIntyre hold your nose special. I'm taking the Eagles 686 00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:41,160 Speaker 1: getting eight and a half. Yes, I swore, I swore 687 00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:46,040 Speaker 1: off the Eagles, but I'm back. Uh in green Bay 688 00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:50,879 Speaker 1: a key injury to note, green Bay's center injured will 689 00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:53,839 Speaker 1: not play. Okay, it's one thing when your center's out, 690 00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:56,520 Speaker 1: but he's not facing a Chem Hicks of Chicago. Hicks 691 00:36:56,600 --> 00:37:00,560 Speaker 1: was out. He's our best interior rusher and he's instrumental 692 00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:04,040 Speaker 1: to the Bears. He was out there were nothing without him. 693 00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:06,400 Speaker 1: It's a different story going up against Fletcher Cotts. If 694 00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:09,240 Speaker 1: you read the beat writers this week, they're playing musical 695 00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:12,880 Speaker 1: chairs onf On the offensive line for the Eagles, Aaron Rodgers. 696 00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:16,120 Speaker 1: He's gonna have a rookie somewhere along the line. It's 697 00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:18,719 Speaker 1: unclear if he's gonna be a guard or center either way. 698 00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:22,520 Speaker 1: Uh starting a rookie against one of the better defensive 699 00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:25,400 Speaker 1: lines in the league, Fletcher Cox, Graham Barnett. This is 700 00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:29,560 Speaker 1: a good Eagles front four. Um. I obviously don't like 701 00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:32,560 Speaker 1: Darius big Place Sleigh who just got lit up by 702 00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:36,880 Speaker 1: DK Metcalfe for a buck seventy seven through the air. Hello, 703 00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:39,560 Speaker 1: now you gotta face Davante Adams. That could get ugly. 704 00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:42,320 Speaker 1: And yes, there is a great chance that the Packers 705 00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:46,160 Speaker 1: continue to click on all cylinders and lay waste to 706 00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:50,600 Speaker 1: the Eagles. My my thing is Carson Wentz does lead 707 00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:54,240 Speaker 1: the league in interceptions, does league the league in sacks taken. 708 00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:58,400 Speaker 1: But this is a toothless Eagles defense. They're not good, folks, 709 00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:01,279 Speaker 1: They're just not a good defense. And if you could 710 00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:03,840 Speaker 1: get Miles Sanders and Boston Scott Cooking on the line. 711 00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:06,160 Speaker 1: I think they're getting Earth's back. So now you've got 712 00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,840 Speaker 1: Urts and got art. Will Peterson go with the heavy sets, 713 00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:12,680 Speaker 1: both tight ends, which is what we know he wants 714 00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:14,040 Speaker 1: to do. They haven't had a lot of that this 715 00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:15,600 Speaker 1: year because of the injuries. Go back to the first 716 00:38:15,640 --> 00:38:17,919 Speaker 1: half of the season opener, and they had the two 717 00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:21,360 Speaker 1: tight end sets and they man handled Washington in the 718 00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:23,560 Speaker 1: first half, went away from that in the second half 719 00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:26,640 Speaker 1: and that got their bloorers. Don't doors blown off. I 720 00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:28,600 Speaker 1: think if they go to that and they could say discipline, 721 00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:31,600 Speaker 1: not put Carson Wentz in bad situations and try to 722 00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:34,200 Speaker 1: run the ball thirty five times, I think they can 723 00:38:34,239 --> 00:38:37,000 Speaker 1: have some success and play keepboy. Listen. We saw Jacksonville 724 00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:39,040 Speaker 1: do that. They did get the help of a punt return, 725 00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:42,719 Speaker 1: but the kid Robinson had a good game. And this 726 00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:46,279 Speaker 1: is just it's kind of an overrated Packers defense. And 727 00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:49,799 Speaker 1: I do love by low sell high. That's been one 728 00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:52,799 Speaker 1: of the things that's been successful for me this year. 729 00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:55,839 Speaker 1: Early in the season and gambling, I am buying an 730 00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:59,000 Speaker 1: Eagles team off a Monday night performance that was ghastly. 731 00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:00,960 Speaker 1: Everybody who watched set said, oh you got a bench. 732 00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:04,120 Speaker 1: Carson Wentzie stinks. The Eagles are horrible. You gotta get 733 00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:09,040 Speaker 1: once out of there. Then you are selling high. So 734 00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:12,799 Speaker 1: you're buying low on the Eagles, and you're selling high 735 00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:15,960 Speaker 1: on the Packers. Who if you watch Sunday Night Football, 736 00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:18,799 Speaker 1: they destroyed the Bears. I know they only won by 737 00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:20,920 Speaker 1: six team, but that was because the two garbage time 738 00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:25,600 Speaker 1: touchdowns by the Bears. This is a great sell high 739 00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:29,680 Speaker 1: spot on the Packers, and buy low on the Eagles. Remember, folks, 740 00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:31,279 Speaker 1: this is the NFL. I know it's easy to say 741 00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:35,640 Speaker 1: that team sucks. This team is atrocious. There's really two 742 00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:39,640 Speaker 1: really bad teams, the Jets and the Jaguars. They're really 743 00:39:39,680 --> 00:39:45,560 Speaker 1: bad football teams. Um, there's maybe two or three really 744 00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:48,760 Speaker 1: really really good teams, maybe just one in the Chiefs 745 00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:52,399 Speaker 1: and other than that, like all the teams in the middle, 746 00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:57,480 Speaker 1: there's not that much separating them. Again, the Raiders last 747 00:39:57,480 --> 00:39:59,680 Speaker 1: week got the crushed by a Falcon steam. The Raiders 748 00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:01,279 Speaker 1: are play off team in the ANFC. The Falcons are 749 00:40:01,280 --> 00:40:05,360 Speaker 1: a dumpster fire. And like the difference between teams in 750 00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:08,279 Speaker 1: the league. You think it's huge and the chasam is great, 751 00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:10,960 Speaker 1: it's just not. And I know the Packers are better 752 00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:14,160 Speaker 1: than the Eagles, but the point spread is the great equalizer. 753 00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:16,200 Speaker 1: Give me the Eagles getting eight and a half. So 754 00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:18,160 Speaker 1: to recap the best bets. By the way, the record 755 00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:22,480 Speaker 1: forty one and five. Who a far cry from the 756 00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:26,120 Speaker 1: s we were throughout September. Here on the podcast, the 757 00:40:26,200 --> 00:40:29,520 Speaker 1: four picks Eagles plus eight a half, Washington plus eight 758 00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:31,920 Speaker 1: and a half, Indie minus three and a half, a 759 00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:39,239 Speaker 1: lot of hooks and uh four teams seven point Teaser Chargers, Raiders, Seahawks, Forts. 760 00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:42,279 Speaker 1: Those are the picks. Everybody, have a great weekend. We 761 00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:44,360 Speaker 1: will talk to you on Monday.