WEBVTT - Caribbean Roundtable 0:00:01.760 --> 0:00:05.640 All Zone Media. 0:00:06.519 --> 0:00:09.800 Hi everyone, and welcome to it could happen here. It's 0:00:09.800 --> 0:00:13.039 a very special round table podcast today where we're going 0:00:13.080 --> 0:00:17.520 to discuss the United States ongoing campaign of bombing small 0:00:17.760 --> 0:00:22.000 boats in the Caribbean. I'm joined by Michael Pahlberg, an 0:00:22.040 --> 0:00:26.239 associate professor of political science at Virginior Commonwealth University and 0:00:26.320 --> 0:00:29.840 a fellow at the Center for National Policy. Hi Michael, 0:00:29.880 --> 0:00:30.720 thanks for joining us. 0:00:30.920 --> 0:00:31.880 Hi, thanks for having me. 0:00:32.600 --> 0:00:35.720 And Andrew is also here. Listeners of the show will 0:00:35.760 --> 0:00:38.239 be familiar with Andrew's work. He joins very often, but 0:00:38.800 --> 0:00:42.199 in this instance, Andrew is talking as someone who is 0:00:42.200 --> 0:00:45.280 from Trinidad and Tobago, which of course is very much 0:00:45.320 --> 0:00:46.440 being impacted by this. 0:00:46.560 --> 0:00:47.720 Hey, Andy, what's going on? 0:00:49.120 --> 0:00:52.000 Not much? Well, let's talk about what's going on, because 0:00:52.040 --> 0:00:55.000 something quite perfstantial is going on. What's going on is 0:00:55.040 --> 0:00:58.440 that the United States is carrying out a campaign of 0:00:58.560 --> 0:01:03.640 drone strikes against small vessels in the Caribbean. As far 0:01:03.720 --> 0:01:07.720 as we know, there have been seven strikes. At least 0:01:07.920 --> 0:01:12.080 thirty two people have been killed, two people have been 0:01:12.200 --> 0:01:17.720 detained and then repatriated, and a number of vessels have 0:01:17.800 --> 0:01:21.120 been struck. The US it's bringing its war on terrorism 0:01:21.240 --> 0:01:24.000 logic to the Western Hemisphere rate, it's claiming that it's 0:01:24.040 --> 0:01:28.480 fighting narco terrorism, and it's claiming that these boats are 0:01:28.680 --> 0:01:32.560 for the most part carrying Venezuelan nationals coming out of Venezuela. 0:01:33.200 --> 0:01:36.959 We've heard from Colombia that one Colombian national has been killed. 0:01:36.959 --> 0:01:40.880 The two people who had detained were Ecuadorian and Colombian 0:01:41.360 --> 0:01:46.080 to Trinidadian or Trinidad and Tobago nationals have been killed 0:01:46.120 --> 0:01:50.400 as well. And this has sparked something of a and 0:01:50.560 --> 0:01:52.440 what it was a war of words, now it seems 0:01:52.440 --> 0:01:56.080 to be a war of more than that, tariffs and 0:01:56.200 --> 0:02:00.560 sanctions and if Columbia has withdrawn their diplomat from DC 0:02:01.360 --> 0:02:06.200 as of today or yesterday, so it sparks significant political 0:02:06.240 --> 0:02:08.560 turmoil in the Western hemisphere. I think we have a 0:02:08.560 --> 0:02:10.919 really good panel to talk about that. So to begin with, 0:02:11.480 --> 0:02:15.000 I guess we should start Michael. Can you explain their 0:02:15.160 --> 0:02:17.480 accusation here right is that these people are members of trend, 0:02:17.520 --> 0:02:20.960 Deer Ragua or potentially some other cartels that the term 0:02:21.000 --> 0:02:24.280 administration likes to talk about. We've talked about the prevalence 0:02:24.280 --> 0:02:26.640 of those groups, but can you explain very briefly what 0:02:26.680 --> 0:02:30.200 they are, and I suppose the function that they have 0:02:30.320 --> 0:02:33.760 in Venezuela or what they're doing there versus what's been 0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:35.079 claimed that they're doing. 0:02:35.720 --> 0:02:39.280 So sure, I do research on organized crime in Latin America, 0:02:39.360 --> 0:02:43.440 and Rene de Ragua is a real organized criminal group 0:02:43.880 --> 0:02:46.720 in Venezuela and now all over Latin America. It is 0:02:46.720 --> 0:02:48.600 a street gang that started out as a prison gang. 0:02:49.280 --> 0:02:54.480 It does not primarily engage in international drug trafficking, moving 0:02:54.840 --> 0:02:59.880 large quantities of drugs across national borders or across oceans. 0:03:00.160 --> 0:03:04.359 It is primarily engaged in human trafficking. 0:03:03.880 --> 0:03:05.239 And extortion rackets. 0:03:05.440 --> 0:03:10.040 And it primarily follows the Venezuelan and Niascara people who 0:03:10.040 --> 0:03:12.400 have left Venezuela. And at this point it's an incredible 0:03:12.880 --> 0:03:15.200 twenty percent of the population over the last ten years 0:03:15.200 --> 0:03:19.680 of Maduro's presidency, so nearly eight million people. Wherever they 0:03:19.720 --> 0:03:23.799 go and they take advantage of them, They extort them 0:03:23.800 --> 0:03:26.640 for money. They will also take money to move them 0:03:26.680 --> 0:03:29.680 across borders. But they're not a cartel in the way 0:03:29.720 --> 0:03:34.120 that we traditionally think about cartels like the Sinalo cartel 0:03:35.240 --> 0:03:39.440 or some of the Columbian cartels that are engaged in 0:03:39.440 --> 0:03:45.640 international cocaine trafficking, and so it's highly unlikely that if 0:03:45.960 --> 0:03:50.080 the Trump administration is striking boats that they claim to 0:03:50.160 --> 0:03:55.680 be vessels transporting cocaine or vensional, which is not made 0:03:55.720 --> 0:04:01.520 in Venezuela. It's primarily made in Mexico using precursors from China, 0:04:01.560 --> 0:04:03.720 and increasingly it's actually in the United States. Even that 0:04:03.800 --> 0:04:06.760 it's a tilt synthetic drug, that's possible, and Venezuela, of 0:04:06.760 --> 0:04:09.000 course is not one of the countries where coca is 0:04:09.040 --> 0:04:12.680 grown and therefore cocaine comes from. If they are indeed 0:04:12.720 --> 0:04:15.800 striking drug boats, then they probably wouldn't be traded Aaga, 0:04:15.800 --> 0:04:18.159 and if they're striking boats with Brenda Arragua, they would 0:04:18.200 --> 0:04:22.120 be most likely striking migrant smuggling vessels, in which case 0:04:22.160 --> 0:04:24.279 the death account would likely be much higher. 0:04:24.760 --> 0:04:24.960 Yeah. 0:04:25.120 --> 0:04:29.240 Yeah, So we should talk about the other Caribbean nations now, 0:04:29.279 --> 0:04:32.440 I guess I want to talk about Trindent Tobago, but 0:04:32.480 --> 0:04:36.640 we should probably cover Columbia first, right, because we've seen 0:04:36.800 --> 0:04:40.880 significant pushback from Petro, president of Columbia, and then we've 0:04:41.040 --> 0:04:44.360 recently seen the President of the United States accused Petro, 0:04:44.400 --> 0:04:47.040 who is again president of Columbia, of being a drug 0:04:47.120 --> 0:04:51.320 trafficker himself, which is a fairly ludicrous claim on the 0:04:51.360 --> 0:04:53.800 face of it. But let's talk about Petro because he 0:04:53.880 --> 0:04:59.040 has some background in opposition to organize crime and drug smuggling. Actually, right, 0:04:59.080 --> 0:05:01.640 like he's in this for a while. Can you explain 0:05:01.640 --> 0:05:04.640 a little bit of his career and then his recent stances. 0:05:05.279 --> 0:05:09.400 Yeah, So Petro is a mercurial figure in Columbian politics, 0:05:09.400 --> 0:05:12.800 has been for a long time. He is known for 0:05:12.880 --> 0:05:18.000 starting his career as a gorilla with a minor anti 0:05:18.000 --> 0:05:21.039 government guerrilla movement called the M nineteen movement. Now, this 0:05:21.200 --> 0:05:25.880 is the movement which I don't know, maybe Western audiences 0:05:25.880 --> 0:05:30.520 are familiar with from the Netflix series Narcos, for having 0:05:30.680 --> 0:05:34.880 participated carried out the Palace of Justice siege at the 0:05:35.200 --> 0:05:38.680 Columbian Supreme Court, which was a major disaster in which 0:05:38.839 --> 0:05:44.520 the Columbian military went in guns blazing to rescue hostages, 0:05:45.200 --> 0:05:49.800 Supreme Court justices and other people just employed in the 0:05:49.839 --> 0:05:53.119 Palace of Justice, and most everyone died in a fire 0:05:53.880 --> 0:05:55.880 as a result. Petro was not involved in that operation 0:05:56.400 --> 0:05:58.080 as far as anyone knows. He was not involved in 0:05:58.120 --> 0:06:02.760 eight violent confrontations and this organization, unlike the fark and 0:06:02.800 --> 0:06:05.640 the ln never really got on the cocaine money train 0:06:06.120 --> 0:06:09.960 and therefore didn't last as long as those other organizations did. 0:06:10.000 --> 0:06:13.560 They did demobilize, they did turn to peaceful politics, and 0:06:13.600 --> 0:06:18.640 Petro began his political career at the local level Bogota 0:06:18.680 --> 0:06:22.480 and then eventually reached the presidency. So he is someone 0:06:22.520 --> 0:06:25.920 with a long political career and does have a constituency, 0:06:25.960 --> 0:06:28.880 does have a base, and he is the first truly 0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:32.080 left wing leader of Colombia, country that has been famously 0:06:32.480 --> 0:06:35.599 both ruled by the right and also very closely allied 0:06:35.600 --> 0:06:36.119 to the US. 0:06:36.320 --> 0:06:37.240 It's really the US. 0:06:37.279 --> 0:06:40.599 It is top ally in Latin America, well in South America, 0:06:40.640 --> 0:06:45.640 at least specifically on security, given Plan Colombia and the 0:06:45.680 --> 0:06:49.320 long history of US giving as much as ten billion 0:06:49.360 --> 0:06:55.479 dollars over time to beef up Colombia's counterinsurgency and counter 0:06:55.560 --> 0:06:58.080 narcotics fights on our behalf. 0:06:58.360 --> 0:07:00.320 Get to acuse of president of being a dry kraft 0:07:00.600 --> 0:07:04.159 is fairly ludicrous, Like he's been like even in time 0:07:04.200 --> 0:07:06.599 as a senator, right he was like I think he 0:07:06.640 --> 0:07:11.280 was sharing some like investigations or committees that looked to 0:07:11.360 --> 0:07:12.960 drug smuggling if I remember correctly. 0:07:13.840 --> 0:07:16.440 Yeah, and so I would say Petro has been very 0:07:16.480 --> 0:07:21.000 critical of the war on drugs approach generally, but he 0:07:21.080 --> 0:07:24.880 does still inherit this long standing, deep relationship with the 0:07:25.000 --> 0:07:29.840 United States, and he's not exactly a full on peacenick 0:07:30.000 --> 0:07:32.680 when it comes to his own internal security. He did 0:07:32.760 --> 0:07:36.240 come it off as promising what he called total peace possibibal, 0:07:36.920 --> 0:07:40.680 a platform that was meant to put an end to 0:07:41.240 --> 0:07:44.520 all armed in certainties in the country by making a 0:07:44.560 --> 0:07:49.480 deal with the remaining combatant groups, namely the ELN, the 0:07:49.920 --> 0:07:52.640 dissident bar guerrillas, those who did not agree to the 0:07:52.680 --> 0:07:57.440 peace deal signed by Santos in twenty sixteen, and what's 0:07:57.640 --> 0:08:02.320 in different terms called the Klandel GORGEPO or the AGC 0:08:02.760 --> 0:08:05.560 the Guy Thomas to self defense Forces, but one of 0:08:05.000 --> 0:08:09.520 the largest national narco paramilitary group that descends from the 0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:14.040 old AUC. And he has failed in that and talks 0:08:14.040 --> 0:08:15.320 have broken off with. 0:08:15.560 --> 0:08:16.760 Those other armed groups. 0:08:17.080 --> 0:08:20.920 Colombia has gone back to war against them. The ELN 0:08:21.480 --> 0:08:26.640 has engaged in some pretty horrific violence, including a suicide 0:08:26.680 --> 0:08:30.240 car bombing the police barracks and the distant FARC as 0:08:30.280 --> 0:08:34.200 well taking down a helicopter and a drone attack. So 0:08:34.360 --> 0:08:38.000 there has been a return to fairly high level, you know, 0:08:38.200 --> 0:08:42.640 armed insurgency in Colombia, even if it's nowhere near the 0:08:42.720 --> 0:08:45.400 level it was from the late nineties and early two thousands. 0:08:45.240 --> 0:08:48.960 Right, Yeah, And all of this is happening in the Caribbean, 0:08:49.000 --> 0:08:53.520 which is not a vast ocean, right, It's not a 0:08:53.559 --> 0:08:56.040 massive area of space. And Sandra and I were talking 0:08:56.080 --> 0:09:01.040 about before we recorded. This has impacted other Caribbean nations, 0:09:01.320 --> 0:09:05.720 nations which are not the target of the Trump administration's aggression, 0:09:05.840 --> 0:09:09.240 but nonetheless are being subjected to it. Do you want 0:09:09.280 --> 0:09:12.640 to talk Andrew, Trinida and Tobago's in a particularly kind 0:09:12.640 --> 0:09:16.120 of interesting the right word. It's not a great situation, right, 0:09:16.160 --> 0:09:22.120 because Trinidadian people are being killed, at least two and 0:09:22.240 --> 0:09:26.880 the government is apparently completely unconcerned with this. 0:09:27.120 --> 0:09:31.160 Yes, I suppose I should provide some context. So there 0:09:31.160 --> 0:09:35.040 have been seven strikes to date, and the fifth strike 0:09:35.120 --> 0:09:38.840 resulted in the deaths of two fishermen from the village 0:09:38.840 --> 0:09:42.320 of Las Guavas in Trinantobago being claimed among the victims. 0:09:42.760 --> 0:09:45.640 The government Transbigo has not made a statement about it, 0:09:46.360 --> 0:09:50.720 and the families have not really been contacted or provide 0:09:50.720 --> 0:09:54.640 any sort of support. Now for those who are listening 0:09:54.679 --> 0:09:57.800 who may not know where Trinaans Bigle is. It is 0:09:57.840 --> 0:10:01.640 an independent Twin Ireland republic the Caribbean, and it's actually 0:10:01.760 --> 0:10:05.840 geographically an extension of South America. There's a gulf that 0:10:05.920 --> 0:10:10.160 separates it, but it's about eleven kilometers away from Venezuela 0:10:10.200 --> 0:10:14.520 itself and our elections. It took place this year led 0:10:14.559 --> 0:10:19.920 to the removal of the incumbent party and the return 0:10:20.559 --> 0:10:23.839 of the United National Congress, the political party led by 0:10:23.920 --> 0:10:29.640 Camera Posa Prossessor, claiming the government in a sweep landslide. Really, 0:10:30.400 --> 0:10:33.560 but despite that landslide, it wasn't really the result of 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:37.000 popular support for the United National Congress. It was more 0:10:37.080 --> 0:10:40.560 so the lack of support for the previous party, the 0:10:40.640 --> 0:10:45.480 People's National Movement, which lost I believe two hundred thousand 0:10:45.600 --> 0:10:48.160 or so of their usual voters just didn't show up 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:52.960 to vote for them this election, so the opposition party 0:10:53.080 --> 0:10:56.559 came into power. When the opposition party wasn't the opposition 0:10:57.280 --> 0:11:00.280 They in many ways appeared to just oppose for pose 0:11:00.320 --> 0:11:04.000 and sake. They were in power previously from twenty ten 0:11:04.040 --> 0:11:07.000 to twenty fifteen, but they were voted out due to, 0:11:07.040 --> 0:11:11.880 among other things corruption, and since then the party has 0:11:11.920 --> 0:11:16.360 further evolved into a sort of personality cult centered around 0:11:16.480 --> 0:11:20.880 came proser prosessor, and her politics have also evolved in 0:11:20.880 --> 0:11:25.200 that time to align further and further toward the United 0:11:25.240 --> 0:11:29.880 States position. She's become something of a Trump Stan you know, 0:11:30.080 --> 0:11:32.400 she was kind of touring his line on a lot 0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:36.960 of issues. She supported Guido Juan Guido as the president 0:11:37.120 --> 0:11:40.439 of Venezuela and actually went so far while she was 0:11:40.480 --> 0:11:43.200 a oposition leader to call on the United States to 0:11:43.280 --> 0:11:47.240 sanction Trinan Tobago after the Vice President of Venezuela had 0:11:47.280 --> 0:11:49.520 made a visit to the country to meet with the 0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:53.760 then Prime Minister Keith Rowley. So she has made her 0:11:54.080 --> 0:11:58.040 pro Washington stands clear for a very long time. And 0:11:58.120 --> 0:12:03.280 as she's come into power, she has divuted our alignment 0:12:03.480 --> 0:12:07.640 with our regional bloc, the Caribbean Community cara COM and 0:12:07.840 --> 0:12:10.720 their call for the Caribbean to remain a zone of peace, 0:12:11.400 --> 0:12:17.520 and emphasized her continued endorsement for the US military's deployment 0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:24.160 outside of Venezuela's territorial waters. But still very much belligerent 0:12:24.679 --> 0:12:27.440 in her approach to this issue. You know, we have 0:12:27.520 --> 0:12:31.640 gone from a state that was respected as a non 0:12:31.679 --> 0:12:38.239 aligned entity that was able to approach various diplomatic partners 0:12:38.720 --> 0:12:42.080 from the US to China to the eute in Yale 0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:46.240 to Venezuela as well. And we've gone from that sort 0:12:46.280 --> 0:12:50.840 of diplomatic approach to a very clear pro West stance 0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:54.560 that has really alienated US from the rest of the 0:12:54.600 --> 0:12:59.559 region and really placed US almost in the position of 0:12:59.600 --> 0:13:02.800 being alite state for US policy. You know, she's been 0:13:02.840 --> 0:13:06.439 inviting the US military if they want to base the 0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:10.160 operations Auto Turinaud. She has opened our doors to that. 0:13:10.960 --> 0:13:13.920 She has called for the US to kill them all violently, 0:13:14.520 --> 0:13:20.319 extraditionally and stated that she is quivoctly aligned with what 0:13:20.520 --> 0:13:23.840 the US is doing in the region despite its flagrant 0:13:23.920 --> 0:13:26.720 violations of international law. 0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:31.280 Yeah, as you said earlier, right that them in this 0:13:31.360 --> 0:13:34.880 instance includes at least two of her own citizens. 0:13:35.320 --> 0:13:38.040 And I will say that this sort of zone of 0:13:38.120 --> 0:13:41.920 peace designation for the Caribbean, it is something that I 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:45.120 would this is my personal opinion, and consider more of 0:13:45.160 --> 0:13:49.000 a hopeful ideal rather than the reality. You know, the 0:13:49.040 --> 0:13:52.440 trafficking that takes place in the region does visit a 0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:56.320 lot of violence upon people. Is you know, by no 0:13:56.440 --> 0:13:59.320 means in reality a zone of peace, even before the 0:13:59.400 --> 0:14:04.640 US is in the region. However, though we may not 0:14:04.880 --> 0:14:11.360 fit that postcard perfect perception of tropical paradise, it is 0:14:11.400 --> 0:14:15.719 still necessary, i think, for US to stand in solidarity 0:14:16.559 --> 0:14:19.480 as a region, to speak with one voice when it 0:14:19.520 --> 0:14:24.120 comes to these issues, especially as a continued existence depends 0:14:24.160 --> 0:14:27.720 on the observation of international law. The respect for the 0:14:27.800 --> 0:14:32.440 UN Charter as small islands or safety is really in numbers. 0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:37.800 And for the Prime Minister to deviate from that solidarity 0:14:38.600 --> 0:14:42.560 in such a blatant way, it's it's really quite sad, 0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:44.600 but it shouldn't come as a surprise because there have 0:14:44.800 --> 0:14:49.560 been efforts by the US to divide cara Con in 0:14:49.600 --> 0:14:53.720 the past. During his first term, Trump had pulled some 0:14:53.880 --> 0:14:57.480 cara Con countries into the LIMA Group, which was a 0:14:57.920 --> 0:15:02.040 US promoted coalition of right being governments that was pushing 0:15:02.160 --> 0:15:06.440 for regime change in Venezuela. And he's not doing the 0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:10.000 same thing with trying to get some Caracom governments to 0:15:10.040 --> 0:15:16.520 facilitate his actions towards Venezuela. They approached Grenado recently to 0:15:16.600 --> 0:15:22.640 try and get Grenada's assistance in basing a satellite there 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:25.400 on the island, and it's really ironic that they would 0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:28.920 approach Grenada, which is also quite close to Venezuela, because 0:15:29.240 --> 0:15:33.520 Grenado is famously one of the countries that the United 0:15:33.560 --> 0:15:36.800 States invaded in October of nineteen eighty three. 0:15:37.240 --> 0:15:39.720 Yeah, I think, I know I say this a lot, 0:15:39.760 --> 0:15:42.280 but if you've listened to the song Washington Bullets by 0:15:42.320 --> 0:15:44.000 the Clash, and then you go to the border, you 0:15:44.080 --> 0:15:46.400 can kind of join up all the people from all 0:15:46.400 --> 0:15:50.160 the countries mentioned there and the outcome of US policy 0:15:50.240 --> 0:16:03.760 and what that does to migration over time. We should 0:16:03.840 --> 0:16:07.880 talk about the Venezuelan opposition. I guess, Michael, would you 0:16:08.000 --> 0:16:12.880 give I've done a pretty in depth discussion of Venezuela, 0:16:12.960 --> 0:16:15.360 a place where I have spent a decent amount of time, 0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:19.280 Like I wanted to see that revolution myself when I 0:16:19.320 --> 0:16:23.680 was like nineteen and I was studying political science that 0:16:23.800 --> 0:16:26.200 I wanted to see what this like pink Tide was about. 0:16:26.560 --> 0:16:30.160 And I have reported a lot on Venezuela migrants. People 0:16:30.160 --> 0:16:33.520 who are new to the show, I guess the series 0:16:33.520 --> 0:16:35.280 I did from the Darien Gap would be where I 0:16:35.320 --> 0:16:38.200 would point you for my discussion of Venezuela and Venezuelan people. 0:16:38.320 --> 0:16:40.640 I still speak to people of Venezuela almost every day, 0:16:41.360 --> 0:16:44.000 but I think people could do micro with like a 0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:48.080 like a high level overview of the Venezuelan opposition. I 0:16:48.120 --> 0:16:50.200 guess we can talk about that about prize as well, which, 0:16:50.440 --> 0:16:53.160 despite what Donald Trump is saying, was not awarded to 0:16:53.280 --> 0:16:54.160 him this year. 0:16:54.640 --> 0:16:54.840 Yeah. 0:16:54.960 --> 0:16:57.880 So the big news is that Maria Quida Machado, who 0:16:57.960 --> 0:17:01.600 is be leader of the Venezuelan opposition as we as 0:17:01.600 --> 0:17:03.920 we know it today, was awarded of the Nobel Prize, 0:17:04.240 --> 0:17:07.000 which was a bit of a surprise and from a 0:17:07.160 --> 0:17:12.080 very US centric analysis. One idea that has been floated 0:17:12.160 --> 0:17:15.199 is that the Nobel Committee didn't want to award Trump 0:17:15.359 --> 0:17:18.239 the prize, but thought that maybe awarding it to an 0:17:18.280 --> 0:17:21.399 ally of Trump, would we be away to modify Trump 0:17:21.520 --> 0:17:25.479 also possibly to encourage him to take a more peaceful 0:17:25.480 --> 0:17:28.800 approach at a time that the US is threatening armed 0:17:28.800 --> 0:17:32.320 intervention in some way in Venezuela, whether that is a 0:17:32.440 --> 0:17:36.600 counter arcotects operation or more likely a regime change operation 0:17:37.119 --> 0:17:40.040 of some kind, even though it's very unclear how they 0:17:40.080 --> 0:17:42.800 would get to regime change from blowing up votes, even 0:17:42.800 --> 0:17:44.040 blowing up people. 0:17:44.880 --> 0:17:47.639 Maybe we should pause and talk about regime change, actually 0:17:47.680 --> 0:17:51.480 because I like it's such a problematic idea, right, we 0:17:51.600 --> 0:17:58.080 have attempted regime changes. My career for the last several 0:17:58.440 --> 0:18:01.040 years has been reporting on the United States failed attempts 0:18:01.040 --> 0:18:03.760 to facilitate regime james all over the world, right, Like, 0:18:04.560 --> 0:18:07.040 it's not something we're very good at. I don't think 0:18:07.080 --> 0:18:10.800 that the United States is going to invade maybe do 0:18:10.800 --> 0:18:12.800 you think differently? But I think we probably agree that 0:18:12.840 --> 0:18:14.600 the United States is sound likely to do it, like 0:18:14.600 --> 0:18:18.480 an Iraq style invasion of Venezuela. Can you explain the couple, 0:18:18.560 --> 0:18:21.520 like why I suppose just just for people who you know, 0:18:21.560 --> 0:18:25.040 think that that's what's happening in the Caribbean at the 0:18:25.040 --> 0:18:27.680 moment with this concentration of forces. 0:18:28.160 --> 0:18:30.000 Well, it's unlikely to happen because well, it's a very 0:18:30.040 --> 0:18:33.320 large country and it would take a lot more troops 0:18:33.359 --> 0:18:38.080 than what are currently deployed, which is approaching ten thousand now. 0:18:38.080 --> 0:18:40.679 But that's actually that includes all sorts of logistical support. 0:18:40.800 --> 0:18:44.720 The actual fighting force, the Marine Expeditionary Unit is actually 0:18:44.760 --> 0:18:47.240 much smaller. I've lived in Panama as a kid, and 0:18:47.280 --> 0:18:50.200 I was not old enough to be there for the 0:18:50.280 --> 0:18:53.440 invasion but I live there some years after that. That's 0:18:53.440 --> 0:18:56.600 probably the closest analog to this, at least the way 0:18:56.600 --> 0:18:59.680 that the Drum administration is promoting this, which is to say, 0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:03.960 a regime change operation that is disguised as a counter 0:19:04.000 --> 0:19:08.560 narcotics operation. Famously, nor Diega, it was not a war. 0:19:09.240 --> 0:19:14.000 It was an arrest of a foreign leader who was 0:19:14.280 --> 0:19:17.600 indeed involved in drug trafficking. And we knew that because 0:19:17.640 --> 0:19:22.359 he was literally a CIA asset whose drug trafficking was 0:19:23.080 --> 0:19:25.440 being protected as long as he was allied with the 0:19:25.520 --> 0:19:30.240 US against Cuban backed rebel groups in Central America. But 0:19:30.480 --> 0:19:33.480 at some point later he became too much of embarrassment 0:19:33.800 --> 0:19:37.400 for the US. Was genuinely a brutal guy, pulled off 0:19:37.400 --> 0:19:39.800 the torture, murder of who was spotifort, all. 0:19:39.600 --> 0:19:41.119 Sorts of nasty things. 0:19:41.400 --> 0:19:45.000 But the big difference is at that time and when 0:19:45.040 --> 0:19:48.359 I lived there, the US had multiple military basis in Panama. 0:19:48.440 --> 0:19:51.719 Panama was the headquarters of the US Southern Command, the 0:19:51.760 --> 0:19:55.679 Western Hemisphere, headquarters of the Pentagon. We had thirteen thousand 0:19:55.680 --> 0:19:58.919 troops already there ready to go. I think they doubled 0:19:58.920 --> 0:20:02.639 that for the invasion, which was officially termed Operation just 0:20:02.720 --> 0:20:04.960 cause usually called Operation Bluespone, but they had to come 0:20:05.040 --> 0:20:05.560 with the sex. 0:20:05.440 --> 0:20:05.800 Of your name. 0:20:06.480 --> 0:20:09.560 And of course Panama is a tiny country and Venezuela 0:20:09.640 --> 0:20:11.879 is twenty times larger than Panama. 0:20:12.040 --> 0:20:13.920 Yeah, it's fuss, so it's very odd. 0:20:13.920 --> 0:20:17.560 It's obviously they have deployed many more troops and a 0:20:17.640 --> 0:20:22.159 much larger fleet than its necessary for a counter narcotics operation. Incidentally, 0:20:22.640 --> 0:20:25.920 it's the US Coast Guard that carries out counter narcotics 0:20:25.960 --> 0:20:30.879 interdictions and does it very effectively, and incidentally does it 0:20:31.160 --> 0:20:36.919 with the cooperation of other countries which coordinate intelligence or 0:20:37.000 --> 0:20:43.080 just simply surveillance of suspicious ships or boats or planes 0:20:43.520 --> 0:20:46.280 and tip off the US Coast Guard. Even the Cuban 0:20:46.320 --> 0:20:48.280 government does that. In fact, it's the Coast Guard that 0:20:48.400 --> 0:20:52.280 is the US agency that has the best relationships with Cuba. 0:20:52.280 --> 0:20:56.120 It's oftentimes diplomacy kind of starts with the Coast Guard's 0:20:56.200 --> 0:20:59.640 ties with Cuba. But anyway, that aside, it doesn't make 0:20:59.680 --> 0:21:03.280 sense from a counter narcotics standpoint, because look, if you 0:21:03.520 --> 0:21:07.280 actually wanted to break up a cartel, what do you do. 0:21:07.359 --> 0:21:10.639 I mean, if you are a prosecutor investigator, right, you 0:21:10.680 --> 0:21:15.640 capture the smugglers, you seize the cargo, the contraband, which 0:21:15.640 --> 0:21:18.520 is evidence. Then you try to flip them up for 0:21:19.280 --> 0:21:22.000 immunity for whoever your real targets are. Maybe your target 0:21:22.040 --> 0:21:24.919 is Maduro or someone else in the regime. But you 0:21:24.960 --> 0:21:26.600 can't do that when you kill everyone on the boat. 0:21:26.640 --> 0:21:29.760 Ye, right. And I think the fact that in I 0:21:29.760 --> 0:21:30.120 think the. 0:21:30.119 --> 0:21:33.399 Latest boat strike, they didn't manage to kill everyone, and 0:21:33.440 --> 0:21:34.760 a couple of them got away, and then the US, 0:21:34.880 --> 0:21:37.359 rather than charge them with a crime, they just turned 0:21:37.359 --> 0:21:41.159 them back around. And you would think that if the 0:21:41.240 --> 0:21:45.240 US is so certain that the people on those boats 0:21:45.280 --> 0:21:49.480 are drug trafficking terrorists that they want to kill them, 0:21:49.600 --> 0:21:52.520 then you'd think they would have enough evidence to charge 0:21:52.560 --> 0:21:55.720 them to prosecute them of them. Apparently not. So this 0:21:55.760 --> 0:21:57.959 is all to say the idea that this is a 0:21:58.000 --> 0:22:00.280 counternarcotics operation doesn't hold up. 0:22:00.400 --> 0:22:00.840 Clearly. 0:22:00.880 --> 0:22:03.280 It is meant to be more of a regime change operation. 0:22:03.440 --> 0:22:05.480 But again I don't see how the one leads to 0:22:05.520 --> 0:22:07.960 the other. I believe that Trump thinks that if he 0:22:08.160 --> 0:22:12.360 just saber rattles a little bit and possibly tries some 0:22:12.520 --> 0:22:15.840 decapitation strikes the way that the US did on Soleimani 0:22:15.880 --> 0:22:19.480 and Iran, that's somehow the regime is going to collapse, 0:22:19.640 --> 0:22:23.600 and that does not make any sense. Maduro has surrounded 0:22:23.640 --> 0:22:28.040 himself with security, a lot of it, including Recuban advisors. 0:22:28.400 --> 0:22:32.959 He keeps his whereabouts very secret. Even if somehow they 0:22:32.960 --> 0:22:37.000 were to drone strike him, it's not as if the 0:22:37.160 --> 0:22:40.480 regime as a whole would fall because it is an 0:22:40.520 --> 0:22:45.080 extremely militarized regime that is upheld by the armed forces 0:22:45.400 --> 0:22:48.240 who are not going to break with him because they 0:22:48.320 --> 0:22:52.840 have a hand in every lucrative business both legal and illegal, 0:22:53.040 --> 0:22:55.920 in Venezuela. They're not going to be paid off or 0:22:56.000 --> 0:22:58.760 not be swayed by a bounty that is currently what 0:22:58.880 --> 0:23:00.680 something like fifty million dollars. I mean, there are people 0:23:00.720 --> 0:23:04.159 around Madula that have made upwards of a billion dollars 0:23:04.560 --> 0:23:07.760 in oil rents. So it's not like you could pay 0:23:07.800 --> 0:23:08.320 off people. 0:23:08.160 --> 0:23:08.960 To be head either. 0:23:09.160 --> 0:23:10.920 Yeah, and it's not Nor is it like a cult 0:23:10.960 --> 0:23:14.480 of personality situation, like certainly not. Now Java's had something 0:23:14.560 --> 0:23:17.919 of a sort of charismatic leadership role, but Madula is 0:23:17.960 --> 0:23:21.720 not that. So let's talk about the opposition in Venezuela 0:23:22.040 --> 0:23:24.439 in so much as, like I guess, if we go 0:23:24.520 --> 0:23:27.000 back to the election, last year. Right, that's start with 0:23:27.040 --> 0:23:32.000 the election and explain to people what happened there and 0:23:32.240 --> 0:23:36.680 the subsequent sort of avenues that are now open for 0:23:37.000 --> 0:23:39.760 the avenues that opposition is now exploring, if that's okay. 0:23:40.560 --> 0:23:44.200 There was an election quote unquote that took place last year. 0:23:44.480 --> 0:23:47.320 It was broken largely by the US. The US under 0:23:47.359 --> 0:23:52.720 the my administration was pushing for some kind of negotiations 0:23:52.720 --> 0:23:56.240 between the opposition of Venezuelan government. They convinced enough people 0:23:56.240 --> 0:24:00.359 in the opposition to stand for elections under what was 0:24:00.359 --> 0:24:03.239 called the Barbados Agreement in twenty twenty three. And this 0:24:03.480 --> 0:24:07.720 was meant to be in exchange of partial lifting the 0:24:07.760 --> 0:24:12.240 sectoral sanctions that have been in place on Venezuela for 0:24:12.240 --> 0:24:14.240 a long time, in which the Trump administration, the first 0:24:14.280 --> 0:24:18.040 Trump administration, really tightened in exchange for the Vaduro government 0:24:18.200 --> 0:24:21.520 agreeing to stand for elections. And those elections happened last year. 0:24:22.119 --> 0:24:28.240