WEBVTT - Cliff Notes: THE TOP 10 SECRETS TO INVESTING with Ian Dunlap

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<v Speaker 1>An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child

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<v Speaker 1>in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador

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<v Speaker 1>accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with

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<v Speaker 1>some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President

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<v Speaker 1>Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States

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<v Speaker 1>Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border

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<v Speaker 1>crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you

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<v Speaker 1>are here illegally, your next you will be fined nearly

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<v Speaker 2>Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security. Earners.

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<v Speaker 3>What's going on? You are now locked in the cliff Notes,

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<v Speaker 3>the number one place for investment strategies, tips and advice.

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<v Speaker 3>Make sure you have your notepads ready, but more importantly,

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<v Speaker 3>make sure you're ready to execute on the information earners

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<v Speaker 3>is twenty twenty one, the year of execution. In order

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<v Speaker 3>one place that get the information eyl University Shotty tell

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<v Speaker 4>Yes, eyl University has been reloaded. We already have one

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<v Speaker 4>monthly financial planning calls. We already have bi weekly real

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<v Speaker 2>And what also has been added breaking News Alert.

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<v Speaker 4>Everybody always has to be in our group Chack, and

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<v Speaker 4>On the other side.

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<v Speaker 2>Number one, investing is relatively easy. We as humans make

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<v Speaker 2>it hard there. I think in business there's been more

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<v Speaker 2>books written about investing how to invest than almost any

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<v Speaker 2>other subject on Earth. And even from a standpoint of

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<v Speaker 2>people messing up and mismanaging client accounts, the same mistakes

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<v Speaker 2>get made decade after decade, but we make it so complicated.

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<v Speaker 2>It does not have to be. After you read two

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<v Speaker 2>three hundred books, you're going to come to the same

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<v Speaker 2>assessment of you're either going to ultra focus on a

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<v Speaker 2>few or you're going to index, add bonds to your

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<v Speaker 2>mix and have a concentrated portfolio that's spread out across

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<v Speaker 2>the market. I want you to put in chat, which

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<v Speaker 2>one are you going to do? Are you going to

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<v Speaker 2>be hyper focused on a few or are you going

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<v Speaker 2>to spread it out and get exposure to everything in

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<v Speaker 2>the market. But type and chat, investing is not hard,

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<v Speaker 2>especially when you're holding for the long term. I want

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<v Speaker 2>you to go to Barons after tonight and look up

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<v Speaker 2>this article how to turn three thousand into forty one

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<v Speaker 2>million lessons from investing in a century. Kudos to al

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<v Speaker 2>for that amazing article. Number two, The best companies in

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<v Speaker 2>the world focus on global domination across multiple industries. Homework

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<v Speaker 2>item number two. I want you to go look at

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<v Speaker 2>the number of companies that Apple and Amazon have acquired

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<v Speaker 2>since two thousand and three. They look like Lucian Grange's

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<v Speaker 2>budget for acquisition of artists at Universal. If you look

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<v Speaker 2>at everything that they've acquired, it's twenty to forty companies.

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<v Speaker 2>Inside of those businesses that comprises one brand, that being

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<v Speaker 2>Apple and Amazon and Microsoft as well. Second tier companies

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<v Speaker 2>focus on incremental growth and their competitors. So back in

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<v Speaker 2>the day, back in the Bomber days, there was an

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<v Speaker 2>over emphasis on trying to beat Apple. There was not

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<v Speaker 2>a high emphasis on being best for your customer. So

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<v Speaker 2>for those of you with businesses that own brands obsess

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<v Speaker 2>over your customers or clients' lives getting better, kudos you

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<v Speaker 2>in the stock club. I know, I don't know. I always

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<v Speaker 2>answering if you guys call, but I've tried to do

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<v Speaker 2>my damn best to give you some of the highest

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<v Speaker 2>terms in the market. And then if you look, Amazon

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<v Speaker 2>shipped one point five billion packages over the holidays, that's

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<v Speaker 2>going to put a lot of pressure on Postal Service

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<v Speaker 2>DHL and any other carrier as well. So they've required

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<v Speaker 2>eleven more planes to ship faster, and at some point

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<v Speaker 2>we may even have same day shipping be a norm

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<v Speaker 2>in a five or six year period. Number three, please

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<v Speaker 2>write this down. Marry the brand that you love the most,

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<v Speaker 2>if there's a religious movement behind it. Let me say

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<v Speaker 2>it again. Marry the brand that you love the most,

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<v Speaker 2>and if there's a religious movement behind it. The Apple

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<v Speaker 2>stores the church. Steve Jobs was the messianic figure. Apple was,

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<v Speaker 2>of course their version of the cross. The iPad was

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<v Speaker 2>their Bible. Tesla's going through a similar run now. You

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<v Speaker 2>can argue in the nineteen eighties and nineteen nineties that

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<v Speaker 2>IBM had a similar structure. Amazon is going through it now, Starbucks,

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<v Speaker 2>and there's Nike. There's about fifteen brands we can name.

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<v Speaker 2>But if you absolutely love a brand and everyone tells

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<v Speaker 2>you that you're crazy, and even for those of you

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<v Speaker 2>that love bitcoin, right, if there is a brand that

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<v Speaker 2>you love, you need to tie your money to that. Potentially,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not an advisor, so I can tell you what

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<v Speaker 2>to do, but tie your money to that. For the

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<v Speaker 2>lifetime of you investing into the market. It's the fourteenth

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<v Speaker 2>anniversary of Apple's iPhone ten thousand and would have been

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<v Speaker 2>four hundred and forty seven thousand. Now. I remember having

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<v Speaker 2>a first iPhone. I did not invest ten grand I

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<v Speaker 2>kicked myself and asked for it every single day. So

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<v Speaker 2>I'm telling you from personal experience. And then as you

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<v Speaker 2>get older, for those of you that are in your twenties,

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<v Speaker 2>you're gonna feel like your thirties are never gonna come,

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<v Speaker 2>and you're gonna lookup. You're gonna have kids and responsibilities

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<v Speaker 2>and bills, and you're gonna be like, damn, I should

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<v Speaker 2>have invested. I was into this hot thing when it

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<v Speaker 2>was first getting popular. A ten year holding period is

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<v Speaker 2>almost perfect for every asset class. Please write this down.

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<v Speaker 2>So the average return for indexes seven to twelve percent.

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<v Speaker 2>If you look at tech, the average return on a

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<v Speaker 2>yearly basis is gonna between fifteen and thirty two percent,

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<v Speaker 2>depending on which company you pick. The average return for

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<v Speaker 2>real estate is ten point five percent, and the average

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<v Speaker 2>return for art over the same period it's ten percent

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<v Speaker 2>a year over the last four decades, so a five

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<v Speaker 2>year horizon is actually short and tonight, I'm gonna give

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<v Speaker 2>you the timeframe that works the best to hold your

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<v Speaker 2>investment to almost guarantee that you will receive a return

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<v Speaker 2>on your investment. Now, uh, this is key. Please write

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<v Speaker 2>this down. If you don't take anything else from my

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<v Speaker 2>segment from the show, write this down. The three most

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<v Speaker 2>important ending didicators in investing. One quantitative easing, so if

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<v Speaker 2>the FED stops printing money, especially during the recession, we

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<v Speaker 2>will go to hell in the hand basket very fast.

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<v Speaker 2>Number two then verted yield curve. We talked about it

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<v Speaker 2>many times. It's the only indicator that predicts recessions one

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<v Speaker 2>hundred percent of the time. And every single one of

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<v Speaker 2>you that are watching should have an alert set for

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<v Speaker 2>when we cross Number three. A twenty year hold in

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<v Speaker 2>the market, So ten years in the S and P

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<v Speaker 2>five hundred, you will be positive ninety four zero point

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<v Speaker 2>one percent of the time, which is amazing. That takes

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<v Speaker 2>almost all the risk away. But if you hold the

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<v Speaker 2>S and P five hundred over twenty year period, and

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<v Speaker 2>you can look over any twenty year period, you're damn

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<v Speaker 2>near guaranteed to win. Now, of course, investment has considerable

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<v Speaker 2>risks that would change if the Fed stops printing money.

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<v Speaker 2>If we lose our stronghold and venture capital Silicon Valley,

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<v Speaker 2>and then transitioning from incubation to go in public, that

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<v Speaker 2>could change. If your currency, of course, could be an issue.

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<v Speaker 2>There's a bunch of threats that are there. And also

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<v Speaker 2>we'll talk one day about where we are in the

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<v Speaker 2>cycle of empires and maybe our Josh said tonight as well.

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<v Speaker 2>But over a twenty year period, you won't lose in

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<v Speaker 2>the market. And I know the tough part is if

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<v Speaker 2>you're getting started, you're like, I don't want to wait

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<v Speaker 2>twenty damn years to see a return. I'm not saying

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<v Speaker 2>that you have to wait twenty to see a return,

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<v Speaker 2>but over a twenty year period, especially if you have

0:08:29.520 --> 0:08:32.880
<v Speaker 2>kids or grandchildren, it's the best time frame for you

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<v Speaker 2>to hold through. Look at this. I love this. The

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<v Speaker 2>grandchildren that you love will have freedom.

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<v Speaker 3>This episode is brought to you by P and C Bank.

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<v Speaker 3>A lot of people think podcasts about work are boring,

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<v Speaker 2>On a decision that you make today. And kudos to

0:11:36.760 --> 0:11:39.880
<v Speaker 2>all the amazing grandparents out there. Lord knows I love mine,

0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:41.640
<v Speaker 2>And for those of you that still have your grandparents,

0:11:41.920 --> 0:11:44.880
<v Speaker 2>call them today because I would do anything to be

0:11:44.920 --> 0:11:48.160
<v Speaker 2>able to talk to mine. Well, look at this, since

0:11:48.200 --> 0:11:52.120
<v Speaker 2>inception Microsoft born ass Microsoft, and even through that bad

0:11:52.200 --> 0:11:55.880
<v Speaker 2>decade Bomber, kudos to you. If you're listening, maybe he'll

0:11:55.880 --> 0:11:59.000
<v Speaker 2>come on the show. Microsoft is up three hundred and

0:11:59.000 --> 0:12:03.520
<v Speaker 2>fifty nine thousand percent since inception. Apple is up one

0:12:03.600 --> 0:12:07.079
<v Speaker 2>hundred and twenty four thousand percent since in s and

0:12:07.120 --> 0:12:09.720
<v Speaker 2>you guys can go to macrotrends dot net if you

0:12:09.800 --> 0:12:11.760
<v Speaker 2>think that I've fell off a chair and hit my

0:12:11.800 --> 0:12:15.000
<v Speaker 2>head and made these numbers up. Bitcoin is up ninety

0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:17.560
<v Speaker 2>six thousand percent since twenty eleven. And I'm not the

0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:22.600
<v Speaker 2>biggest bitcoin fanboy there is, but you can't argue with

0:12:22.640 --> 0:12:26.040
<v Speaker 2>the growth, especially since twenty eleven and then Monster Beverage

0:12:26.080 --> 0:12:28.200
<v Speaker 2>is a company that people still continue to sleep on

0:12:28.320 --> 0:12:31.040
<v Speaker 2>year after year. They're up three hundred and sixty six

0:12:31.080 --> 0:12:33.680
<v Speaker 2>thousand percent. Now let me ask you this, how much

0:12:33.760 --> 0:12:36.600
<v Speaker 2>better would your life have been if your grandparents had

0:12:36.640 --> 0:12:42.200
<v Speaker 2>invested in one of these companies for you? And there's

0:12:42.240 --> 0:12:44.520
<v Speaker 2>some for those of you that love Tesla. If you

0:12:44.559 --> 0:12:47.439
<v Speaker 2>think that Tesla will have a run and Neurallink will

0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:51.240
<v Speaker 2>dominate and SpaceX will dominate, are you willing to hold

0:12:51.840 --> 0:12:54.560
<v Speaker 2>Tesla of twenty thirty forty years for your grandchildren so

0:12:54.600 --> 0:12:57.839
<v Speaker 2>they can have a better life? Want you to make

0:12:57.840 --> 0:13:00.800
<v Speaker 2>the decision because it will greatly affect if they act up.

0:13:01.160 --> 0:13:02.720
<v Speaker 2>You can always take the money and use it for

0:13:02.760 --> 0:13:04.959
<v Speaker 2>yourself and for those of you that have passed on

0:13:05.000 --> 0:13:06.640
<v Speaker 2>money to your children, you know usually in two or

0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:09.120
<v Speaker 2>three generations they blow the money anyway. So it's a

0:13:09.160 --> 0:13:14.400
<v Speaker 2>good hedge for yourself. We talked about this before, but

0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:16.760
<v Speaker 2>time in the market. So the length of time that

0:13:16.840 --> 0:13:22.120
<v Speaker 2>you hold plus capability to time the market plus invest

0:13:22.160 --> 0:13:24.520
<v Speaker 2>in the assets will low draw down is a gift

0:13:24.559 --> 0:13:28.520
<v Speaker 2>from God. So if you look at Apple, you can

0:13:28.559 --> 0:13:30.559
<v Speaker 2>do this. Go to microtrends dot net and you can

0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:33.679
<v Speaker 2>see how often does a company or index draw down.

0:13:33.760 --> 0:13:36.800
<v Speaker 2>Draw Down means to lose money. So Apple is up

0:13:36.840 --> 0:13:39.520
<v Speaker 2>over a forty year period sixty seven point five percent

0:13:39.559 --> 0:13:43.520
<v Speaker 2>of the time. The crazy part is over the last decade,

0:13:43.960 --> 0:13:49.240
<v Speaker 2>they haven't closed negative ten percent for ten years now.

0:13:49.240 --> 0:13:51.720
<v Speaker 2>Two thousand and eight. They had a rough patch, of course,

0:13:52.240 --> 0:13:57.240
<v Speaker 2>and before this next transition and shift the power from

0:13:57.600 --> 0:14:00.240
<v Speaker 2>Steve running the company to ten running it, they had

0:14:00.400 --> 0:14:03.000
<v Speaker 2>quite a few more draw outs. But to look at

0:14:03.040 --> 0:14:05.120
<v Speaker 2>the last decade and for a company with that market

0:14:05.120 --> 0:14:07.800
<v Speaker 2>cap to not have drawn down and stayed under ten

0:14:07.840 --> 0:14:12.240
<v Speaker 2>percent is absolutely amazing. And this is one When I

0:14:12.320 --> 0:14:14.440
<v Speaker 2>saw it, I was like, I cannot believe this is true.

0:14:15.600 --> 0:14:19.280
<v Speaker 2>Because of COVID, twenty three percent of all money that's

0:14:19.320 --> 0:14:22.520
<v Speaker 2>ever been printed in the history of the FED was

0:14:22.520 --> 0:14:27.200
<v Speaker 2>done in twenty twenty. You need the market to be

0:14:27.320 --> 0:14:30.800
<v Speaker 2>able to hedge. And now I don't think we'll I'm

0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:33.560
<v Speaker 2>not an economist, but I don't think we'll print this

0:14:33.720 --> 0:14:36.560
<v Speaker 2>much money again in twenty twenty one. But given everything

0:14:36.600 --> 0:14:40.400
<v Speaker 2>that happened in the capital, the second and third strains

0:14:40.480 --> 0:14:43.360
<v Speaker 2>being prevalent, and we are still in a little bit

0:14:43.360 --> 0:14:46.400
<v Speaker 2>of an economic upheaval, we're going to have to print

0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:49.160
<v Speaker 2>again in order and people are fighting now one in

0:14:49.240 --> 0:14:51.280
<v Speaker 2>more than six hundred, we're going to have to print again.

0:14:51.360 --> 0:14:53.600
<v Speaker 2>I think the FED misstep and didn't print early enough.

0:14:54.200 --> 0:14:57.400
<v Speaker 2>But the market is the hedge because otherwise inflation is

0:14:57.400 --> 0:14:59.160
<v Speaker 2>going to eat a lot of the gains and savings

0:14:59.160 --> 0:15:02.000
<v Speaker 2>that you guys have put away. And this is one

0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:06.200
<v Speaker 2>of the biggest ones. I need you to eliminate all

0:15:06.240 --> 0:15:09.680
<v Speaker 2>personal debt. It all costs, especially credit cards, especially if

0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:13.840
<v Speaker 2>your rated is like twenty four five percent. It's unbelievable

0:15:14.000 --> 0:15:17.400
<v Speaker 2>because you're technically if you have a credit card that

0:15:17.480 --> 0:15:21.240
<v Speaker 2>is giving you that's twenty four percent interest on it.

0:15:21.360 --> 0:15:22.800
<v Speaker 2>Any games that you get in the market, if you

0:15:22.840 --> 0:15:26.160
<v Speaker 2>invest in long term, it's a cancer to your portfolio

0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:30.120
<v Speaker 2>and your freedom. So this year we're going to talk

0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:33.000
<v Speaker 2>a lot more about the personal finance side. But it's

0:15:33.080 --> 0:15:34.920
<v Speaker 2>hard to get to wealth if you have all these

0:15:35.000 --> 0:15:37.640
<v Speaker 2>lumen debts over you. So I know student loan is tough,

0:15:37.960 --> 0:15:41.280
<v Speaker 2>the personal credit card, car mortgage. Let's try and keep

0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:45.440
<v Speaker 2>those two as minimal as possible. And this is a

0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:48.280
<v Speaker 2>key lesson I wish I knew, and I missed out

0:15:48.320 --> 0:15:51.200
<v Speaker 2>on the last great recession, and that's why I went

0:15:51.240 --> 0:15:54.480
<v Speaker 2>all in post two thousand and nine to learn this.

0:15:55.200 --> 0:15:57.520
<v Speaker 2>But you never want to waste a good recession that

0:15:57.640 --> 0:16:00.000
<v Speaker 2>is lifted through quantitative easy. I want to be very clear.

0:16:00.280 --> 0:16:02.240
<v Speaker 2>If we go into recession at twenty twenty seven and

0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:04.440
<v Speaker 2>the fans that I am not going to print money

0:16:04.600 --> 0:16:07.520
<v Speaker 2>to offset these losses, I won't invest a damn dime

0:16:07.560 --> 0:16:11.400
<v Speaker 2>in the market. I don't think that I'm so genius

0:16:11.400 --> 0:16:12.920
<v Speaker 2>that I was the reason that the market went up

0:16:12.920 --> 0:16:15.320
<v Speaker 2>because I called a few spots and you know, bought

0:16:15.320 --> 0:16:18.840
<v Speaker 2>a crystal ball off eBay. The great level was quantitative

0:16:18.840 --> 0:16:21.800
<v Speaker 2>easy that helped us a ton, So be mindful of that.

0:16:22.960 --> 0:16:25.080
<v Speaker 2>And this is key when doing your analysis of a

0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:28.520
<v Speaker 2>company from one of the greatest investors that there is

0:16:28.560 --> 0:16:32.760
<v Speaker 2>in the market today. Can this company help one billion

0:16:32.800 --> 0:16:37.200
<v Speaker 2>people over thirty years? I want you to divide that

0:16:37.280 --> 0:16:39.720
<v Speaker 2>number hypothetically so you get an average, and that will

0:16:39.760 --> 0:16:43.200
<v Speaker 2>tell you how many people that company would then expect

0:16:43.200 --> 0:16:44.680
<v Speaker 2>to help. And then you can play with some price

0:16:44.720 --> 0:16:47.280
<v Speaker 2>targets and see how much money that company could make.

0:16:47.520 --> 0:16:50.360
<v Speaker 2>But in your evaluation of a company, so tes on

0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:53.920
<v Speaker 2>one of them, Yes, Apple, Yes, Nvidia, AMD, especially if

0:16:53.920 --> 0:16:57.400
<v Speaker 2>the game of market grows. Yes, can this company that

0:16:57.440 --> 0:16:59.680
<v Speaker 2>I'm about to invest in help one billion people over

0:16:59.720 --> 0:17:02.560
<v Speaker 2>thirty years? That has to be a fundamental analysis question

0:17:02.600 --> 0:17:05.320
<v Speaker 2>that you ask when doing your assessment of any company.

0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:10.359
<v Speaker 2>And on a trading side, this is really key, especially

0:17:10.359 --> 0:17:12.160
<v Speaker 2>for all my traders. You have to assume that you're

0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:14.199
<v Speaker 2>wrong and every damn trade that you trade, that you

0:17:14.280 --> 0:17:17.359
<v Speaker 2>take until profit is secure. So whether you do that

0:17:18.000 --> 0:17:20.840
<v Speaker 2>with the trailing stop or let's say after you're up

0:17:20.880 --> 0:17:24.280
<v Speaker 2>ten percent, you manually lock in three percent until you

0:17:24.359 --> 0:17:27.400
<v Speaker 2>are in profit. Because even with slippage things going to happen,

0:17:27.440 --> 0:17:30.320
<v Speaker 2>you can have a flash crash. Until you are in profit,

0:17:31.000 --> 0:17:34.440
<v Speaker 2>you are not safe. Death is knocking on your doorstep

0:17:34.920 --> 0:17:36.800
<v Speaker 2>because anytime we say I know this one is going

0:17:36.840 --> 0:17:38.320
<v Speaker 2>to wear, those are the ones that are going to

0:17:38.400 --> 0:17:40.919
<v Speaker 2>fall apart. Everyone went crazy about Kodak last year and

0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:43.200
<v Speaker 2>thought it was going to do great hurts the same

0:17:43.720 --> 0:17:46.440
<v Speaker 2>and then people end up getting crushed on the backside

0:17:46.480 --> 0:17:52.000
<v Speaker 2>of those trades and hyper reduction of positions it's key.

0:17:52.520 --> 0:17:53.800
<v Speaker 2>I'll talk to some of you and some of you

0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:56.480
<v Speaker 2>have fifty five positions. I'm like, you made your all

0:17:56.560 --> 0:17:58.560
<v Speaker 2>media find you might as well compete against Kathy. At

0:17:58.560 --> 0:18:01.280
<v Speaker 2>that point, you need to reduce some of the positions

0:18:01.280 --> 0:18:04.480
<v Speaker 2>that you have and laser focus on a few winning companies.

0:18:04.520 --> 0:18:06.960
<v Speaker 2>These are the things that I wished that I knew

0:18:08.560 --> 0:18:10.240
<v Speaker 2>at the age of twenty one to help me become

0:18:10.240 --> 0:18:13.040
<v Speaker 2>a better investor, Because until you have a formula that

0:18:13.119 --> 0:18:16.760
<v Speaker 2>works for you, there's going to be a sense of intimidation,

0:18:16.880 --> 0:18:18.879
<v Speaker 2>and you need a process to help offset that. And

0:18:18.920 --> 0:18:22.360
<v Speaker 2>even with the process, emotions kick in and we may deviate.

0:18:22.760 --> 0:18:25.720
<v Speaker 2>And this is why this one is key homework for

0:18:25.720 --> 0:18:29.040
<v Speaker 2>the week. I hope that we've earned a spot into

0:18:29.119 --> 0:18:31.440
<v Speaker 2>your top five, but this year I only want you

0:18:31.480 --> 0:18:34.840
<v Speaker 2>to focus on listening to five podcasts on investing.

0:18:35.119 --> 0:18:37.400
<v Speaker 3>To hear a more extended conversation. Make sure to check

0:18:37.400 --> 0:18:40.680
<v Speaker 3>out our live YouTube show market Mondays every Monday eight

0:18:40.720 --> 0:18:44.040
<v Speaker 3>pm Easter Standard time, seven pm Central, and check out

0:18:44.040 --> 0:18:47.760
<v Speaker 3>the Market Monday's podcast on iHeart, Spotify, Apple, or wherever you

0:18:47.840 --> 0:18:48.880
<v Speaker 3>download your podcast.

0:18:48.920 --> 0:18:54.240
<v Speaker 2>Now five books and five newsletters and trash everything else.

0:18:56.359 --> 0:19:01.200
<v Speaker 2>My graduates from my school being forced back. Drop bag,

0:19:01.320 --> 0:19:15.160
<v Speaker 2>drop come my drop bag, drop bag drops Peace