1 00:00:02,960 --> 00:00:07,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:13,840 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:16,599 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Play and 4 00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:19,600 Speaker 2: Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand 5 00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:23,320 Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:24,880 --> 00:00:26,239 Speaker 3: I'm Alex Thee alongside pauls. 7 00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:26,480 Speaker 4: We need. 8 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:28,480 Speaker 3: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. We bring you all 9 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 3: the top news and business, economics and finance. Threugh are 10 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:33,440 Speaker 3: a lens of our Bloomberg Intelligence analysts because they cover 11 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:37,239 Speaker 3: two thousand companies and one hundred and thirty industries worldwide, 12 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:38,559 Speaker 3: and we're going to check in with one of them 13 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:41,879 Speaker 3: now on Goldman Sachs sitting at a record high and 14 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:45,120 Speaker 3: this was all thanks to the traditional old school Goldman 15 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:49,040 Speaker 3: Sacks business FIC and equity trading, just crushing analyst estimates. 16 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 3: For that, we want to go to Alison Williams, Boomberg Intelligence, 17 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 3: senior analysts for global banks and asset managers. Alison the 18 00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 3: highlights and is it worth the record high on Goldman stock? 19 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 3: Goldman Sachs stock, that is hard. That is hard to say. 20 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:06,399 Speaker 5: Well, as you know, we don't make stock calls, but 21 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:09,880 Speaker 5: I can tell you that the fundamentals are strong and 22 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 5: Goldman is really, you know, showing that it made the 23 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:16,120 Speaker 5: right decision in the last couple of years to focus 24 00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 5: back on its core institutional businesses. Out of all the 25 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 5: global banks, they have been the most focused on this business. 26 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 5: They earn the most from trading, and they're definitely showing 27 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 5: progress in different aspects of the business that they've focused on. 28 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:35,760 Speaker 5: So for example, fixed income trading up fifteen to twenty percent, 29 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 5: doing a lot of financing assets in that business. Equity 30 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 5: trading also up strong. The one area that was a 31 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 5: little bit weak was the M and A fee side. 32 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:50,880 Speaker 5: They are typically the global leader in fees, but JP 33 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 5: Morten really sort of leapfrogging them this quarter. But the 34 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 5: positive thing is that they talked about the investment banking 35 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 5: feed pipeline increasing sequentially. That looks good for the third quarter. 36 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 5: On the expense side of things, also showing some good 37 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 5: cost control on the non compensation expenses, but on the 38 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:15,919 Speaker 5: compensation expenses the ratio they're actually going up a little bit. 39 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 6: Ah interesting Okay. Also, what kind of returns do the 40 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:23,560 Speaker 6: Goldman Saxes of the world earn on their their global 41 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 6: trading businesses today. I know that you with coming down 42 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:29,120 Speaker 6: a great financial crisis, lots of regulations, lots of limits. 43 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:32,080 Speaker 6: Where is Goldman in some of their big peers. 44 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 5: So certainly, I mean the returns are not what they 45 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 5: used to be, and it depends on the specific vertical. 46 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:41,519 Speaker 7: I think if you look at fixed. 47 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 5: Income trading, it tends to have sort of a higher 48 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 5: pretax margin, but the returns on equity tend to be 49 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 5: lower because it's a little bit capital intensive. But for 50 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:54,560 Speaker 5: the bank overall turning in double digit return, so I 51 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 5: think showing a good return overall. 52 00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:01,560 Speaker 3: Do you think that Goldman Sacks has left behind it? 53 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:05,000 Speaker 3: It's Marcus fiasco. It's pushed into consumer banking. Is that 54 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 3: is that chapter officially closed? 55 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:11,799 Speaker 5: That chapter is closed. Keep in mind that they are 56 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:17,560 Speaker 5: still focusing on gathering deposits, right, So what they've closed 57 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 5: is you know, saying we're going to expand into all 58 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:25,600 Speaker 5: these businesses incrementally add to something that they've never had 59 00:03:25,639 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 5: a leadership position in and sort of you know, making 60 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:32,240 Speaker 5: an entry a new market, changing the business model, if 61 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 5: you will. Instead, they said they're going to go back to, 62 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 5: you know, focusing on what they're good at. 63 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 8: They do have the. 64 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:42,280 Speaker 5: Transaction banking business, which is something that they've entered into 65 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 5: recent years. But we think that business makes sense for them. 66 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 5: I think it helps them to serve their corporate clients 67 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:52,520 Speaker 5: and on the consumer side stepping away from lending. So 68 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:55,120 Speaker 5: they still have a couple of lending products left. But 69 00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 5: I'm sure everyone has seen the headlines related to Apple 70 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 5: and know that those are probably going away too. They're 71 00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 5: really just sticking to the deposit side of things as 72 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:06,280 Speaker 5: sort of diversification of funding. 73 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:09,760 Speaker 6: So talk to us about their asset and wealth management business. 74 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:12,400 Speaker 6: I know it's about thirty percent of their revenue these days. 75 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:15,600 Speaker 6: What's their focus for that going forward. 76 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:19,880 Speaker 5: Yeah, that's a good question, Paul, and really highlights one 77 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 5: of the areas of strength this quarter, which is raising 78 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:26,839 Speaker 5: money in their alternatives business. This has been a strategy, 79 00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 5: you know, several years ago they embarked on shifting from 80 00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 5: the Goldman that we know for decades and decades of 81 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 5: investing their own money, using that expertise to really invest 82 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 5: more for clients and making those revenues sort of more 83 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 5: of a fee based revenue management money for clients versus 84 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 5: just the proprietary gains that they would get on those 85 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 5: types of assets, and they are doing really well in 86 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:55,040 Speaker 5: terms of exceeding their targets for raising money there and 87 00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:58,280 Speaker 5: at the end of the day, these are that's sort 88 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:01,800 Speaker 5: of a better proposition to to investors in the stock 89 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 5: because investors generally tend to like to have more recurring, 90 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 5: revenue based businesses and capital light businesses. 91 00:05:10,240 --> 00:05:13,200 Speaker 3: Okay, so tomorrow we get Bank of America, which is 92 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:15,600 Speaker 3: currently in a fifty two week high, and Morgan Stanley. 93 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:17,800 Speaker 3: How are they going to do? Knowing what we know 94 00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 3: from City, JP and Goldman. 95 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:22,800 Speaker 5: Sure, so a couple of different stories. I mean, the 96 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 5: read through is really positive for Morgan Stanley in terms 97 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:30,479 Speaker 5: of the institutional business, but certainly they need to jump 98 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 5: over that higher bar because according to consensus right now, 99 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 5: JP Morgan moving into the number two spot for equities 100 00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 5: trading revenue. Keep in mind that Morgan Stanley was number 101 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:44,039 Speaker 5: one for several years, Goldman's number one now and JP 102 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:47,920 Speaker 5: Morgan moving up. But equities trading should be good, fees 103 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 5: should be good. I think people will be watching on 104 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:53,280 Speaker 5: the wealth management side of things just due to some 105 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 5: pricing changes that we saw at Wells. So I think 106 00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:58,239 Speaker 5: that's what people are going to be watching there also 107 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:02,600 Speaker 5: the compensation ratio to see what's happening across the industry. 108 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:06,920 Speaker 5: Bank of America on that interest income again, we had 109 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 5: sort of that negative surprise from Wells Fargo related to 110 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 5: their wealth management business. What are we going to hear 111 00:06:11,960 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 5: from Bank America with regard to that. We do expect 112 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:18,320 Speaker 5: that we'll see the same capital market strength. We're also 113 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:22,479 Speaker 5: wondering on the commercial loan side of things. Disappointing loan 114 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 5: balances hurt Wells Fargo. In the industry. Data looks like 115 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:27,840 Speaker 5: there was a little bit of a pickup in commercial 116 00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:28,520 Speaker 5: balances at the. 117 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 7: End of the quarter. 118 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:32,000 Speaker 5: We don't know if that's just something funky with the 119 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:34,840 Speaker 5: data or if there might be more to it. 120 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 7: So that's what we'll be looking to hear about from 121 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 7: Bank America. 122 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:40,840 Speaker 6: All right, great stuff as always. Alison Williams is the 123 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 6: senior financials Banks Global all that kind of stuff for 124 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 6: Bloomberg Intelligence. She's been doing that for decades, first on 125 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:49,600 Speaker 6: the buyside at Morgan Stanley Investment Management and then for 126 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:54,720 Speaker 6: the last close to fifteen years with Bloomberg Intelligence. So 127 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:56,839 Speaker 6: good numbers coming out of Golden Sachs. 128 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:01,840 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg and Intelligence Podcast. Catch us 129 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:05,280 Speaker 2: live weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and 130 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:08,159 Speaker 2: Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also 131 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:11,480 Speaker 2: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York 132 00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 2: station Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 133 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:18,680 Speaker 3: I'm Alex Steel alongside Paul Sweeney. This is a Bloomberg 134 00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:21,400 Speaker 3: Intelligence Radio. We'll bring you all the top news and 135 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:24,280 Speaker 3: analysis and business and economics through our lens of our 136 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:26,720 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Intelligence folks. They cover two thousand companies and one 137 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 3: hundred and thirty industries worldwide. We also follow all the 138 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:31,800 Speaker 3: news for you also outside of Bloomberg and joining us 139 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 3: now as Henry Natrice, Managing partner and director of Economic Policy. 140 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 3: She joins us. Now, Okay, there is a lot to 141 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:42,320 Speaker 3: get through here. You cover all of this for Vada Partners. 142 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:45,320 Speaker 3: There's a lot to pick cherry pick from. But let's 143 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:47,960 Speaker 3: go to the breaking headline here. According to Fox News, 144 00:07:47,960 --> 00:07:51,560 Speaker 3: and this was according to a post on X President 145 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 3: Trump will be making his vice president announcement today. Who 146 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 3: do you think that's going to be? 147 00:07:57,040 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 8: Well, I think the base case should be JD. Bay 148 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 8: Its Ohio is obviously a pretty safe read state right now, 149 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 8: but I think the two of them have a mutually 150 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 8: compatible outlook. It really suits the theme of his campaign, 151 00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 8: which is a very sort of robrust, sort of aggressive 152 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:19,720 Speaker 8: America First campaign. The speculation, obviously, and the real exciting 153 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 8: component would be if he were to choose Nikki Haley, 154 00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:25,920 Speaker 8: coming off of a twenty two percent when in Indiana 155 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 8: in the primaries just a couple of weeks ago, she 156 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:30,720 Speaker 8: has shown that she has a real lock on a 157 00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:34,400 Speaker 8: totally different demographic that Trump has struggled with for many 158 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:36,760 Speaker 8: years and specifically in the last couple of months, which 159 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:42,360 Speaker 8: is a female demographic, specifically suburban, married educated women, that 160 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:45,680 Speaker 8: would make his potential path to an electoral college win 161 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 8: on part with Obama's in two thousand and eight a 162 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:49,479 Speaker 8: real possibility. 163 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:53,760 Speaker 6: So, Henrietta on the VP pick when do you think 164 00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:56,680 Speaker 6: we're going to hear when? Who could it possibly be? 165 00:08:56,679 --> 00:08:58,360 Speaker 6: Because that seems to be maybe at the top of 166 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 6: the agenda here today, right. 167 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:03,320 Speaker 8: Yeah, So my understanding is it could happen as early 168 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:06,360 Speaker 8: as tonight. But I've seen quite a bit of speculation 169 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 8: and roles changes within the RNC delegation and their committees 170 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 8: that it could be as late as Wednesday. So while 171 00:09:13,559 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 8: I recognize that the administrator of the Trump team is 172 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:18,840 Speaker 8: saying that it could be tonight, I wouldn't be surprised 173 00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:20,640 Speaker 8: if there were some fastballs thrown in here at the 174 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:24,559 Speaker 8: last minute. But my base case expectation is for JD. Vance, 175 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 8: and I'd be pretty alarmed and surprised if it were 176 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 8: Nicki Haley. The difference between the two campaigns and internally 177 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:33,960 Speaker 8: within the Trump campaign, I think is probably insurmountable. But 178 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:37,840 Speaker 8: it would be a very rational sort of strategic move 179 00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 8: to Trump for Trump to move to the middle and 180 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 8: try to say, you know, this really is a unity ticket. 181 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:44,400 Speaker 8: Let me show you how and put Meikay Haley on 182 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 8: the top. 183 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:46,800 Speaker 3: If you go to JD. Vans for a moment. What 184 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:49,080 Speaker 3: was striking though, is how he really came out and 185 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:53,440 Speaker 3: was wimming Democrats for the assassination attempt on President Trump. 186 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 3: What we've heard so far from former President Trump is 187 00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 3: more of a message of unity. Do you think that 188 00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:01,280 Speaker 3: the unity message prevails here on the ticket or do 189 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:04,520 Speaker 3: you think that the fracturing prevails on the ticket. 190 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 8: I think fracturing is where Trump feels most comfortable. I 191 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:11,440 Speaker 8: think he likes being, you know, sort of the aggressor, 192 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:14,840 Speaker 8: and a unity ticket is not in keeping with anything 193 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:18,520 Speaker 8: we've seen from the Trump campaign since twenty sixteen, so 194 00:10:18,559 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 8: I'd be pretty surprised if it were Nicki Haley. Again, 195 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 8: I do think that makes the most political sense for him, 196 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:26,319 Speaker 8: just in terms of trying to win the electoral College 197 00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 8: and winning the popular vote as well, which could be 198 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:34,000 Speaker 8: massively helpful to him in twenty twenty five as Republicans 199 00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:38,120 Speaker 8: try to pass get four point six trillion dollar tax bill. 200 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:43,199 Speaker 8: So there is a lot of strategic benefit to choosing 201 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:45,120 Speaker 8: in Nicki Haley. I don't know if it's compatible with 202 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:47,360 Speaker 8: his actual campaign, though my default is going to be 203 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:50,959 Speaker 8: a gdvanced style candidate. Mark Rubio is another one I'd 204 00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:53,600 Speaker 8: put up there and roughly the same category. 205 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 6: So, and you know, what do you think, or let's 206 00:10:56,240 --> 00:10:58,720 Speaker 6: put it this way, do you think the message from 207 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:02,200 Speaker 6: former President Trump and his campaign will it change it all? 208 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:07,040 Speaker 6: Given the events of Saturday, I think. 209 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:10,880 Speaker 8: The agenda of the campaign and the campaign in general 210 00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:12,840 Speaker 8: needs to just get through the next couple of months. 211 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:16,520 Speaker 8: We are, you know, in the very early days in July. 212 00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:19,000 Speaker 8: I mean, this should be something that we are expecting 213 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:21,800 Speaker 8: is a shakeup in October. And it's only July, and 214 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:24,840 Speaker 8: we've had two massive shakeups in just the last week, 215 00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:28,679 Speaker 8: you know, with the disastrous presidential debates for Joe Biden 216 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:32,760 Speaker 8: and the dramatic rise we've seen in calls for Biden 217 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 8: to get off the ticket, and then an assassination attempt. 218 00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:38,720 Speaker 8: So for my CNY, there's a lot of whiplash and 219 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:41,280 Speaker 8: we still have four months to go till actual election. Deck. 220 00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:46,319 Speaker 3: Part of the Biden campaign has truly been talking about 221 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 3: how President Trump will fracture democracy and what a big 222 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 3: risk is big Do you think the Biden campaign can 223 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:55,839 Speaker 3: continue with that? Now they've already pulled some campaign ads. 224 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:57,520 Speaker 3: How does that narrative evolve? 225 00:11:58,720 --> 00:11:59,560 Speaker 9: No, I don't think that. 226 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:02,120 Speaker 8: That's going to hold the idea of staying as a 227 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 8: unity tickets to spending campaign donations, suspending fundraising, suspending ads. 228 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 8: That's all going to wrap up. I think in the 229 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:11,600 Speaker 8: next couple of hours. You're already seeing some policy papers 230 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:13,720 Speaker 8: come out from the White House. There was one release 231 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:16,560 Speaker 8: just moments ago on the impact of Trump's potential tariffs 232 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:19,320 Speaker 8: and replacing the federal income tax with tariffs, which would 233 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:22,680 Speaker 8: drive drive tariffs up. It would have to be seventy 234 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:26,320 Speaker 8: percent or higher in order to compensate for the lost 235 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:28,960 Speaker 8: revenue to treasury if they were to abolish the federal 236 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:31,560 Speaker 8: income tax. So there's stuff barkolating behind the scenes. And 237 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:34,560 Speaker 8: then let's be mindful that the Biden team is really 238 00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:40,480 Speaker 8: trying to beat back the base of the Democratic Party 239 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:43,839 Speaker 8: that's hoping he will step aside. So a whole bunch 240 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 8: of things went in Biden's favor ironically since the shooting, 241 00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:52,319 Speaker 8: and it is really just that it has taken Democratic 242 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:55,680 Speaker 8: concerns about his ability to run for another four years 243 00:12:55,760 --> 00:12:59,200 Speaker 8: off the table. I think that's only temporary. In the background, 244 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 8: you still have from members of the DNC and from 245 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:07,760 Speaker 8: donors to either suspend donations, not continue contributing to the campaign, 246 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 8: and to move forward with something akin to a mini 247 00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 8: primary in late July. So all that is percolating in 248 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:17,360 Speaker 8: the background, and I think Biden's going to have to 249 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:20,760 Speaker 8: go out in force. The one area he really succeeds 250 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:24,880 Speaker 8: in beating Republican messaging on aside from things along the 251 00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:29,079 Speaker 8: lines of abortion, is really who has the better state 252 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:32,199 Speaker 8: of play with regards to maintaining democracy. He pulls ahead 253 00:13:32,200 --> 00:13:34,280 Speaker 8: of Trump by seven points there, we really want to 254 00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 8: watch and see how that plays with voters in the 255 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 8: week of Saturday shooting. 256 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:42,679 Speaker 6: So when do you think the Democrats will make any 257 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 6: kind of moves as relates to their candidate, if at all? 258 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:48,560 Speaker 6: Here is this something that they have to just see 259 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:52,600 Speaker 6: how the recent news of the failed assassination, how that 260 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:54,720 Speaker 6: plays out in the public's mind. Maybe get some polling. 261 00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:56,280 Speaker 6: What's the timing there, do you think? 262 00:13:57,080 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 8: Yeah, because we had a tremendous amount of pulling. I mean, 263 00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:03,040 Speaker 8: everybody was interested in seeing how Biden and Trump would 264 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 8: fare in the wake of the disastrous debate, and in 265 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:10,440 Speaker 8: the uproar about Democrats potentially replacing Biden, that has all 266 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:12,080 Speaker 8: taken a back seat. I don't think it's going to 267 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:15,800 Speaker 8: go away, though there are I think the view in 268 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:19,320 Speaker 8: the Democratic Party with everybody that's not you know, Team Biden, 269 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:22,640 Speaker 8: is really that Republicans are on a trajectory to win 270 00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:25,040 Speaker 8: right now, and if Biden stays at the top of 271 00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 8: the ticket, Democrats could get wiped out in the House 272 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:31,880 Speaker 8: and the Senate and give Republicans not just a statistical majority, 273 00:14:32,160 --> 00:14:35,520 Speaker 8: but a mandate level majority fifty five fifty six fifty 274 00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 8: seven seats in the Senate. So I think there's a 275 00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:41,800 Speaker 8: tremendous amount of focus in the background of getting Biden 276 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 8: to step aside. Sixty percent of war of Democratic voters 277 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 8: want someone else at the top of the ticket. They're 278 00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:48,520 Speaker 8: going to need to shake things up. I don't think 279 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:49,560 Speaker 8: that that's going to go away. 280 00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:52,160 Speaker 3: I'm about thirty forty seconds left. The Trump trade is 281 00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:55,600 Speaker 3: in full effect right now in the market. It is 282 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:57,520 Speaker 3: that legit for the long term. 283 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:01,600 Speaker 8: Absolutely. I mean, at this point, the Democrats have a 284 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:04,080 Speaker 8: candidate that sixty two percent of Democrats would prefer not 285 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 8: on the ballot. In that scenario, coupled with the resurgence 286 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 8: and massive galvanization of Trump voters, you really need to 287 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 8: have another shake up at the Democratic front in order 288 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:16,040 Speaker 8: for this not to be a Republican win election. The 289 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:19,360 Speaker 8: two are second neck nationally, but Trump leads by four 290 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:21,720 Speaker 8: or five points in most of the swing states, and 291 00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:23,720 Speaker 8: that's how you get elected in the electoral college. 292 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 3: All right, Henrietta, thank you so much. We do appreciate 293 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 3: you and know it's been a busy of seventy two 294 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 3: hours for you. Henry A. Trece, Managing Partner and director 295 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:34,600 Speaker 3: of Economic Policy over at VATA Partners. 296 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:40,280 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 297 00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Play and 298 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:45,640 Speaker 2: and broyd Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on 299 00:15:45,720 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 2: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 300 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:50,440 Speaker 2: on YouTube. 301 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 3: We are broadcasting two live from Interactive Broker Studio right 302 00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:57,880 Speaker 3: here in midtown Manhattan. There're two very interesting things evolving 303 00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:00,280 Speaker 3: in the market. One is earnings, that would we do 304 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 3: with a value trade? What do we do with small caps? 305 00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 3: And the other is the Trump trade effect that if 306 00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:07,240 Speaker 3: Trump wins the presidency, after the events over the weekend, 307 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:09,400 Speaker 3: what that winds up looking like for the market. So 308 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:11,320 Speaker 3: there's lots of different stuff to dissect. We want to 309 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 3: go to Shana Sizzle, President and CEO of banry On 310 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 3: Capital Management. She joins us from Chicago, Illinois. Shana, let's 311 00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:21,000 Speaker 3: start off with the events over the weekend, the attempted 312 00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:25,960 Speaker 3: assassination attempt from by to President Trump. There is a 313 00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:28,920 Speaker 3: Trump trade in the market. Do you buy it? 314 00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:29,160 Speaker 2: Like? 315 00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 3: Is it real? I mean, typically if you wind up 316 00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:33,480 Speaker 3: trading stocks around who you think is going to be 317 00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:35,760 Speaker 3: the president, that actually hasn't really paid off for you. 318 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:41,120 Speaker 10: Well, I do think the Trump trade is real. I 319 00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 10: do think it's warranted. I think the events of the 320 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:51,680 Speaker 10: weekend actually bolster president former president Trump's already uh the 321 00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 10: lead that he has. I think just you know, if 322 00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:59,200 Speaker 10: you look across social media, a lot of folks who 323 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 10: are not really Trump fans saw the events of this 324 00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:05,840 Speaker 10: weekend as a reason to. 325 00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:07,480 Speaker 9: Vote for him in a way. 326 00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 10: That photo that came out is going to be iconic, 327 00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:14,800 Speaker 10: and people saw it as like America, and you know, 328 00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:16,760 Speaker 10: look at the way he handled this, And I think 329 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:20,240 Speaker 10: all of those things play into market sentiment, and you're 330 00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:21,560 Speaker 10: seeing that in the Trump trade. 331 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:25,840 Speaker 6: All Right, Shanon, let's maybe step back from that kind 332 00:17:25,840 --> 00:17:29,120 Speaker 6: of prior to this weekend. What was your market call 333 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:30,280 Speaker 6: and has anything changed? 334 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:34,480 Speaker 10: My market call was that we're in a period of 335 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 10: slowing economic growth, that the FED rate hikes have done 336 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 10: their job in many respects. We're clearly seeing the economy slow. 337 00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:47,359 Speaker 10: The Fed has made it clear that there's a likelihood that. 338 00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:49,000 Speaker 9: There will be a rate cut in September. 339 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:52,639 Speaker 10: And I don't think any of that has changed in 340 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:57,399 Speaker 10: my opinion. I think we still have a slowing economic conditions, 341 00:17:57,440 --> 00:18:00,520 Speaker 10: and we still have probability high probabilities of fad will 342 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:01,879 Speaker 10: make its first cut in September. 343 00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:04,960 Speaker 3: So the headline to that over the last three trading 344 00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 3: days has been by small caps. Do you buy that? 345 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:11,920 Speaker 10: Not necessarily. I am very encouraged by the small cap rally. 346 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:15,040 Speaker 10: Small caps have done horribly for like two years. 347 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:17,320 Speaker 9: And behaved in a way that. 348 00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:21,359 Speaker 10: We don't really have any like historical reference point for 349 00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:24,440 Speaker 10: Typically small caps behave in a certain way technically, and 350 00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:25,920 Speaker 10: they hadn't been doing that. 351 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:28,040 Speaker 9: So I'm encouraged by the small cap rally. 352 00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:30,520 Speaker 10: We'd had a very long period of time where small 353 00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:33,439 Speaker 10: caps did not make a new high, something like almost 354 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 10: two years, I think, And so that is something I 355 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:39,840 Speaker 10: think is you. 356 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:40,760 Speaker 9: Know, a good thing. 357 00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:43,639 Speaker 10: But I don't necessarily think small caps benefit in the 358 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 10: current market environment for a number of reasons. Higher rates 359 00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,320 Speaker 10: is just harder for them to tap into the capital markets. 360 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:55,200 Speaker 10: They're not necessarily the biggest beneficiaries of the hottest trends 361 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:59,760 Speaker 10: that are pushing earnings in growth like AI, and so 362 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:01,880 Speaker 10: for those reasons, I'm still cautious. 363 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:02,359 Speaker 9: On small caps. 364 00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:06,920 Speaker 6: Conversely, how do you think about those magnificent six or 365 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 6: seven stocks which have been, you know, such a driver 366 00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:12,399 Speaker 6: of this market, accounting for you know, the large majority 367 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 6: of performance. So one of the. 368 00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:18,440 Speaker 10: Things that you can see in the market right now 369 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:21,280 Speaker 10: is we're seeing some dispersion of returns, starting to see 370 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:24,600 Speaker 10: a greater participation across the S and P five hundred 371 00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:28,520 Speaker 10: outside of the magnificent seven, which is very positive. 372 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:30,040 Speaker 9: It's good for active managers. 373 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:33,119 Speaker 10: You know, we touched on small caps active management and 374 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:36,840 Speaker 10: small cap has done absolutely phenomenal and that's a perfect 375 00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:40,080 Speaker 10: example of, you know, why active management can work in 376 00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:42,439 Speaker 10: certain areas of the market. And I think we're starting 377 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:45,359 Speaker 10: to see that a little bit outside of small caps 378 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:47,800 Speaker 10: and in large caps as we start to see the 379 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:50,960 Speaker 10: mag seven kind of take a breather. I think there's 380 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:54,480 Speaker 10: lots of other opportunities in the market to benefit from 381 00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:56,200 Speaker 10: some of the hottest trends that people just aren't paying 382 00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 10: attention to. 383 00:19:57,119 --> 00:19:59,120 Speaker 3: So tell us you have some nice stock picks here, 384 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:00,720 Speaker 3: give us your tie right now. 385 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:06,680 Speaker 10: So I really like VRT. That's a second derivative player 386 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 10: of the AI trade. So they do cooling systems for 387 00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:13,120 Speaker 10: data centers. It's absolutely critical as we need more computing 388 00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:17,280 Speaker 10: power for anything that is machine learning and artificial intelligence related, 389 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:21,520 Speaker 10: and they are the leading player with the top solutions 390 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 10: when it comes to cooling, because a lot of computing 391 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:27,680 Speaker 10: power gets really hot and you certainly do not want 392 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 10: things to overheat. So that's probably my favorite stock right now. 393 00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:34,480 Speaker 10: It's a second derivative play of AI. And then I 394 00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:38,640 Speaker 10: wanted to look outside of technology. You know, everybody kind 395 00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 10: of knows me as the in video girl, and you 396 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 10: know there's other places in the market. 397 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,920 Speaker 9: So no of artists is a healthcare name. 398 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:49,679 Speaker 10: Healthcare has not done great this year, but this is 399 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:52,119 Speaker 10: an opportunity to get in with a player that is 400 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:56,160 Speaker 10: doing some really cutting edge things in oncology in particular. 401 00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:00,399 Speaker 9: And then you know, I have Apple on my lists. 402 00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:02,360 Speaker 10: You know, I just said, let's think outside a tack, 403 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:03,960 Speaker 10: and now I'm going to throw Apple at you. But 404 00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:07,199 Speaker 10: that's a stock that hasn't participated as much as some 405 00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:10,159 Speaker 10: of the others. We've seen a rally recently, but the 406 00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 10: stock is treating at you know, our reasonal valuation and. 407 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:16,760 Speaker 9: It has some really interesting opportunities going forward. 408 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:20,720 Speaker 6: Hey, Shane, what do we know about this AI tech spending? 409 00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:23,480 Speaker 6: We hear about it, you know, from all sorts of companies, 410 00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:25,359 Speaker 6: And I guess one of the questions I have is 411 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:30,200 Speaker 6: how much of this AI spending is incremental versus maybe 412 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:33,719 Speaker 6: just shuffled from another tech budget, whether it's you know, 413 00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:36,480 Speaker 6: information technology or something like that. What do we know 414 00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 6: about that well. 415 00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:40,760 Speaker 10: I would argue that AI should be part of your 416 00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:43,840 Speaker 10: information technology budget because that's where it sits. 417 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 9: I think that it is incremental, though. 418 00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:50,399 Speaker 10: I do think companies realize that they need to have 419 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:54,720 Speaker 10: both the infrastructure for traditional IT and then have to 420 00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:58,080 Speaker 10: really be thinking long term as it pertains to how 421 00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:02,280 Speaker 10: these things can improve business efficient I know at Bondran 422 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,879 Speaker 10: we're finding ways to incorporate AI in our tools and. 423 00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:08,680 Speaker 9: The way that we do our business as well. 424 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:12,159 Speaker 10: We use AI to help us with due diligence, and 425 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:15,359 Speaker 10: we use AI to help our clients use our technology. 426 00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:18,640 Speaker 10: So I think everybody should be thinking about it because 427 00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:22,320 Speaker 10: not only does it improve the user experience and improve 428 00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:23,960 Speaker 10: business efficiencies, but it can save you. 429 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:24,880 Speaker 9: Money in the long run. 430 00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 3: But also one company that you have here on your 431 00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 3: list is air Cap Holdings. It's the world's largest aircraft 432 00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:33,320 Speaker 3: leasing firm if you're just looking at by fleet value. 433 00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:35,600 Speaker 3: It also just hit a fifty two week high just 434 00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:37,040 Speaker 3: a couple of days ago. I think it's i'll say 435 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:39,720 Speaker 3: all time high. Really why do you like this company 436 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:40,800 Speaker 3: in this particular environment. 437 00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:45,720 Speaker 10: Well, we have the Boeing fiasco, which I think kind 438 00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:46,360 Speaker 10: of makes. 439 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 9: People look for other areas where they can be. 440 00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:53,480 Speaker 10: Taking advantage of, you know, kind of the shortfall of Boeing. 441 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,800 Speaker 10: But it's also a really well managed company trading adding 442 00:22:56,840 --> 00:23:00,280 Speaker 10: massive discount to the market. So those two things more 443 00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,960 Speaker 10: than anything or the reason why I like the stock. 444 00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:07,040 Speaker 9: But you know, you can't overlook sort of market trends, 445 00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:07,320 Speaker 9: you know. 446 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,840 Speaker 10: I think you could argue that the Boeing situation doesn't 447 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:15,919 Speaker 10: necessarily affect them directly, but any kind of headline that 448 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 10: would make people think about how airlines and fleets are managed, 449 00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 10: I think is beneficial to Aircap. 450 00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:25,239 Speaker 6: Shane, I know in your career you've spent a lot 451 00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:28,240 Speaker 6: of time on alternatives investing. What's the alternatives that you 452 00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:30,760 Speaker 6: think is most interesting these days that you're talking to 453 00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:32,159 Speaker 6: your clients the most about. 454 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:36,320 Speaker 10: Oh Man, So, one of the things that has been 455 00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:41,200 Speaker 10: coming up a lot lately is sports rights. It's one 456 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:45,040 Speaker 10: of my favorite topics because I think everybody out there 457 00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:47,480 Speaker 10: can kind of connect with it, and we talk a 458 00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:51,000 Speaker 10: lot about having advisors use alternatives as a way to 459 00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 10: connect with their target market of the types of clients 460 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,159 Speaker 10: that they want, and I think sports is, you know, 461 00:23:57,320 --> 00:23:59,639 Speaker 10: universally one of the ways to do that, and sports 462 00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:02,040 Speaker 10: rights is becoming more and more common. I know Avenue 463 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:05,439 Speaker 10: Capital is launching a sports rights fund, and there are 464 00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:09,359 Speaker 10: others like cas Investments that have these accredited investor only 465 00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:12,359 Speaker 10: and I just want to preface that opportunities in sports, 466 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:14,520 Speaker 10: but I'm seeing it more and more, and I think 467 00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:17,320 Speaker 10: that's a really interesting play right now as you see, 468 00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:20,159 Speaker 10: you know, the Boston Celtics are being sold and the 469 00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:22,399 Speaker 10: multiple that they will get for that is going to 470 00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:26,960 Speaker 10: be huge, and those opportunities are things that people pay 471 00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:28,240 Speaker 10: attention to and connect with. 472 00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:31,360 Speaker 3: Hey, Shannon, we really appreciate it. Thank you so so much, 473 00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:35,000 Speaker 3: Shannon sis Old, President and CEO at Benjin Capital Market. 474 00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:37,440 Speaker 3: So is that like everyone can get involved in sports rights. 475 00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:39,720 Speaker 6: I think if there's certain funds, I think that will 476 00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:42,359 Speaker 6: invest and you can be investor in those funds. But again, 477 00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:45,280 Speaker 6: I think, as Shane was saying, the evaluations that you know, 478 00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:47,239 Speaker 6: they just continue to go up and up and up, 479 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:49,320 Speaker 6: and you know, some people thought there might be a 480 00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:52,200 Speaker 6: top with the struggles of some of these traditional media 481 00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:55,160 Speaker 6: companies and the amounts they can pay for broadcast rights. 482 00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:58,040 Speaker 6: But for every one of those media companies that's struggling, 483 00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 6: there's a technology company that's doing really well. And so 484 00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:03,560 Speaker 6: whether it's you know, you can find these games on 485 00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,200 Speaker 6: YouTube and Amazon Prime and all these other pipes. 486 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:09,080 Speaker 3: And do the sports leagues makes the same whether or 487 00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:11,560 Speaker 3: not like Netflix is paying them versus like CBS. It's 488 00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:12,400 Speaker 3: the same kind of money. 489 00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:15,800 Speaker 6: Sure, yeah, And the rights go right to the athletes 490 00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:17,919 Speaker 6: in addition to the owners of the teams and everything 491 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:18,119 Speaker 6: like that. 492 00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:19,480 Speaker 3: So I need to know anything about sports to be 493 00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:22,400 Speaker 3: able to invest in sports. Nope, Hey, there we go, 494 00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:23,440 Speaker 3: go exactly right. 495 00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 6: So the money keeps going up. It seems like. 496 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:30,600 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 497 00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:34,160 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 498 00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:37,399 Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen live 499 00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:40,639 Speaker 2: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station just 500 00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:44,280 Speaker 2: say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 501 00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:47,480 Speaker 6: Well, let's go to move over to the world of 502 00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:50,280 Speaker 6: financial stocksure Goldman Sacks. They had some numbers came out 503 00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,640 Speaker 6: today a little bit better and expected. We're gonna break 504 00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:55,320 Speaker 6: them down later with Alison Williams and Bloomberg Intelligence. Also 505 00:25:56,080 --> 00:26:00,159 Speaker 6: interesting story on black Rock, just extraordinary how big they 506 00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:05,440 Speaker 6: are ten six trillion dollar assets and they're setting ETF 507 00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:08,040 Speaker 6: is a big reason here Neil Sipes Joints is financials 508 00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,480 Speaker 6: analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence. Joints is here in studio. Neil 509 00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:14,640 Speaker 6: talk to us about Blackrock. It's obviously a monster financial institution, 510 00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,680 Speaker 6: but I think it's probably the biggest financial institution people 511 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:20,480 Speaker 6: don't know about. Yeah, the news today on Blackrock. 512 00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:23,040 Speaker 1: I think obviously over the past eighteen months, banks have 513 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,480 Speaker 1: been much more in the focus asset managers, maybe a 514 00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:28,679 Speaker 1: little bit of a sleepier name, so to speak. But 515 00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,640 Speaker 1: like you said, Blackrock eclipsing ten and a half trillion. 516 00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:34,560 Speaker 1: Of course, a lot of that is due to markets. 517 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,159 Speaker 1: We're up, you know, fifteen twenty percent so far you're 518 00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:40,199 Speaker 1: to date. But Blackrock sort of that perennial grower in 519 00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:44,399 Speaker 1: the industry where organic growth, those flows from institutional retail 520 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,600 Speaker 1: clients have been harder to come by. Blackrock, having that 521 00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:50,640 Speaker 1: breadth and diversity of the platform, has really been able 522 00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:54,040 Speaker 1: to deliver growth through varying market cycles. We think that's 523 00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:56,280 Speaker 1: one of their strengths and why they're the leader in 524 00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:58,840 Speaker 1: the space in terms of size. In terms of the 525 00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 1: second quarter organic a little bit lighter than expected. Part 526 00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:05,000 Speaker 1: of that due to the fact that we saw some 527 00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:09,320 Speaker 1: larger institutional clients sort of rebalancing portfolios. That's just sort 528 00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:12,280 Speaker 1: of natural in the business, especially when you're at all 529 00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:16,960 Speaker 1: time highs. Nonetheless, margin really improved. Again, that's on the 530 00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:19,679 Speaker 1: heels of stronger markets. Most of the revenue here is 531 00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:23,480 Speaker 1: asset based fees, so as markets move higher, the top 532 00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,760 Speaker 1: line expands as well. And so really, you know, you 533 00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:30,120 Speaker 1: highlighted the last thing. I guess ETF's another strong suit. 534 00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:33,080 Speaker 1: That's really the bread and butter of black Rock again, 535 00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:35,800 Speaker 1: and obviously, now with some of that private's markets push 536 00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:38,080 Speaker 1: that we've seen in the past couple months. 537 00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 3: When do they hit the law of large numbers thing? 538 00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:45,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that is becoming the more popular question 539 00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:46,160 Speaker 1: for I asked this. 540 00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:48,159 Speaker 3: Question forever, right, and it is still do it? 541 00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:50,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, and they and they continue to target this five 542 00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:53,760 Speaker 1: percent organic based feed growth figure. They've been lagging that 543 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,879 Speaker 1: over the past couple of quarters. Obviously, markets you know, 544 00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:00,959 Speaker 1: since the beginning of twenty twenty two were less conducive. 545 00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:03,679 Speaker 1: They've been more conducive for the past three quarters or so, 546 00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:06,560 Speaker 1: But the question still remains, how do you continue to 547 00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:09,400 Speaker 1: grow at that five percent clip when you're talking about 548 00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:13,560 Speaker 1: a ten trillion dollar asset base. And we think blackrocks diversity. 549 00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:16,480 Speaker 1: When assets are in motion, they can continue to garner 550 00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:22,800 Speaker 1: share from less diversified, less price or these you know competitors. 551 00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,240 Speaker 6: Stock hasn't done anything this year, kind of up one 552 00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,560 Speaker 6: percent just on the year, lagging the market. What's the 553 00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:31,000 Speaker 6: what's the investment call here on blackro What are the 554 00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:31,680 Speaker 6: investors saying? 555 00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:34,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, So I think, you know, a lot of what's 556 00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:37,840 Speaker 1: been baked into this year is sort of market growth, 557 00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:39,800 Speaker 1: which is going to be a benefit to all asset 558 00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:42,920 Speaker 1: managers in the space. So I think the skepticism of 559 00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:47,800 Speaker 1: are these gains lasting? What happens obviously in November when 560 00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:51,400 Speaker 1: we get this eventual FED pivot to cuts, How is 561 00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:53,960 Speaker 1: that going to impact you know, client allocations, How is 562 00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:56,520 Speaker 1: that going to impact the business model? But we do 563 00:28:56,560 --> 00:29:00,200 Speaker 1: think Blackrock is you know, a is position to benefit 564 00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:02,880 Speaker 1: in pretty much all market cycles, and a lot of 565 00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:06,360 Speaker 1: that long term story is now shifting into that private 566 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:10,160 Speaker 1: market's focus with prequel acquisition just announced a couple of 567 00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,280 Speaker 1: weeks ago and Global Infrastructure Partners in January. 568 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:15,560 Speaker 3: Can ask a really dumb question at this point, who 569 00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,840 Speaker 3: are Blackrocks actual competitors? Like who can actually compete with 570 00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:19,400 Speaker 3: this company? 571 00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,560 Speaker 1: Yeah? So there are plenty of competitors. I mean, asset 572 00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:25,640 Speaker 1: management can be somewhat commoditized in a lot of spaces. 573 00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:29,880 Speaker 1: You know, there's competitors like a Vanguard. There's competitors like 574 00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:33,320 Speaker 1: a Schwab, in Vesco, Franklin, Tira, Price, There's plenty of 575 00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,719 Speaker 1: names out there. The question is who's able to compete 576 00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:39,400 Speaker 1: on price with Blackrock? And that's where scale really becomes 577 00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:43,000 Speaker 1: paramount here because they can continue to innovate with new products. 578 00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:46,400 Speaker 1: If a new competitor comes out with, you know, a 579 00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:49,600 Speaker 1: new flashy product, Blackrock tends to match that and can 580 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,680 Speaker 1: sometimes beat it on price. And we know that Blackrock 581 00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:56,800 Speaker 1: is entrenched with pretty much every institutional client, every retail client, 582 00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,760 Speaker 1: so to speak, and that really gives them the strength 583 00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:03,600 Speaker 1: of distribution to kind of leverage across its platform. 584 00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:05,960 Speaker 3: All right, really good stuff, Thank you so much, Really 585 00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:08,880 Speaker 3: appreciate it and all of your insight. Neil Neil Sipes, 586 00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:12,600 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Intelligence of Financials Analysts, the numbers are so big, 587 00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:16,160 Speaker 3: it's like hard to comprehend like how big this company 588 00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:17,160 Speaker 3: actually is, and. 589 00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:20,600 Speaker 6: It's across the board at all lassclasses. Yeah, so the 590 00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:24,320 Speaker 6: ETFs being a new source of assets there, it kind 591 00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:25,920 Speaker 6: of makes a question like I grew up with the 592 00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:30,920 Speaker 6: mutual fund business that flities zero presses. It just seems 593 00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:32,880 Speaker 6: like all the money's going to ETFs, and even the 594 00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:35,520 Speaker 6: mutual funds are converting to ETFs, so that seems to 595 00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:38,200 Speaker 6: be the wrapper of choice. 596 00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:42,520 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 597 00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:46,120 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 598 00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:48,960 Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 599 00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:52,160 Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 600 00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:57,080 Speaker 2: Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 601 00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:59,200 Speaker 6: Alex Deal, Paul Swinging. We're live here on our Bloomberg 602 00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:01,800 Speaker 6: Interactive Workers Studio. We're streaming live on YouTube as well. 603 00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:05,800 Speaker 6: Say head over to YouTube dot com and search Bloomberg Podcasts. 604 00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:08,920 Speaker 6: A lot of things that this market's trying to digest 605 00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:11,400 Speaker 6: right here, and most recently the domestic politics to fed 606 00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:16,200 Speaker 6: assassination temp of former President Trump. We've got global geopolitics 607 00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:18,080 Speaker 6: still out there. We've got earnings for Rakesmack in the 608 00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:20,800 Speaker 6: middle earning season, and then we've got the ever president 609 00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:23,360 Speaker 6: fed watch. What is an investor to do? Let's check 610 00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:27,040 Speaker 6: in with professional Sylvia Jablonski, chief executive officer and chief 611 00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:31,480 Speaker 6: investment officer at Defiance ETFs A Joints, is here. Sylvia. 612 00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:34,240 Speaker 6: We come into the markets here on a Monday morning. 613 00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:38,560 Speaker 6: Another key issue out there in terms of domestic politics. 614 00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:41,240 Speaker 6: What it means for these markets? How did you layer 615 00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:43,920 Speaker 6: in what we learned over the weekend to what was already, 616 00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:48,000 Speaker 6: you know, a challenging process for investors. 617 00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:51,760 Speaker 8: Good morning, Great to be here with you today. 618 00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:54,560 Speaker 4: Well, you know, I think this weekend was a shock 619 00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:57,680 Speaker 4: for many, and you know, I think it's. 620 00:31:57,520 --> 00:32:02,520 Speaker 7: Somewhat unsurprising that the market is selling today off of 621 00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:03,080 Speaker 7: what happened. 622 00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,400 Speaker 4: I think that there's some sentiment in the market that, 623 00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:08,880 Speaker 4: you know, perhaps this turns out to be a Republican 624 00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:11,200 Speaker 4: favored win. And you know, if that's the case, if 625 00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:14,040 Speaker 4: you think about kind of like big corporations and things 626 00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:18,120 Speaker 4: that benefit from them or benefit them, things like policies 627 00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:22,600 Speaker 4: for lower taxes and you know, less kind of regulation, 628 00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:24,920 Speaker 4: more m and a activity, this tends to be positive 629 00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:27,120 Speaker 4: for some of the mag seven types of firms and 630 00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:30,160 Speaker 4: things like this. But I think the other side of it, though, 631 00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:32,120 Speaker 4: is I do think that we need to be a 632 00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:34,360 Speaker 4: little bit cautious and see what happens in the market 633 00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:36,680 Speaker 4: in coming days. The other way that this could have 634 00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:39,160 Speaker 4: gone is that, you know, we could have seen a 635 00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:42,040 Speaker 4: lot of volativity in the markets, which I did and 636 00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:45,000 Speaker 4: will expect to see in coming months if the election 637 00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:47,800 Speaker 4: kind of goes back to you know, he said, she said, 638 00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:51,520 Speaker 4: he did, he didn't do, versus let's unite. 639 00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:51,640 Speaker 9: You know. 640 00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:54,240 Speaker 4: I think if it's kind of a united front type 641 00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:57,680 Speaker 4: of election, you get more stability in the markets. 642 00:32:57,680 --> 00:32:58,840 Speaker 7: If you don't, you're going to see a lot of 643 00:32:58,840 --> 00:32:59,680 Speaker 7: that volatility, and. 644 00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:03,080 Speaker 4: It'll be interesting to see at that point where where 645 00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:04,200 Speaker 4: asset allocations go. 646 00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:05,600 Speaker 9: It is really interesting. 647 00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:08,680 Speaker 3: It is really interesting to see the Vics curve, for example, 648 00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:10,920 Speaker 3: like it hasn't really moved upwards, Like we do get 649 00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:12,840 Speaker 3: that spike in the VICKS if you look at your 650 00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:16,000 Speaker 3: function CCRV right around the election, but it hasn't really 651 00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:19,800 Speaker 3: re rated in the last couple of days. Sylvia. The 652 00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:22,240 Speaker 3: other thing that feels, irrespective of what's happening in d 653 00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:26,800 Speaker 3: c is this massive Russell two thousand rally. Multiple choice 654 00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:30,080 Speaker 3: question is it short covering? Is do you fade it 655 00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:31,040 Speaker 3: or do you buy it? 656 00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:37,720 Speaker 4: I think that there's you know, there's there's an argument 657 00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:41,160 Speaker 4: here to buy Russell, to to you know, start dipping 658 00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:43,600 Speaker 4: into small caps just for the sake of the fact. 659 00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:45,480 Speaker 7: That the FED is very likely to start cutting. 660 00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:48,760 Speaker 4: You know, the data is arguably more favorable than not 661 00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:50,160 Speaker 4: in terms of inflation going down. 662 00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:52,120 Speaker 7: We've heard fret share Pal talk about it. We've heard 663 00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:52,600 Speaker 7: a lot of the. 664 00:33:52,560 --> 00:33:55,840 Speaker 4: FED, you know governors come on and talk about you know, 665 00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:58,719 Speaker 4: their their views that we're finally going in the right direction. 666 00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:02,000 Speaker 7: They need more data and things like this. But overall, 667 00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:04,120 Speaker 7: rates coming down is probably going to be good for 668 00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:04,800 Speaker 7: small caps. 669 00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:07,920 Speaker 4: It could be some short covering, but that also comes 670 00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:09,400 Speaker 4: because of the fact. 671 00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:11,080 Speaker 7: That you know, rate cuts are likely to come forward. 672 00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:13,120 Speaker 4: So I do think that you're going to see some 673 00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:15,720 Speaker 4: of that diversification into areas of the market that haven't 674 00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:18,200 Speaker 4: performed as well as the MAGS seven. So that's also 675 00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:21,800 Speaker 4: the natural inclination I think of longer term investors. You 676 00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:24,240 Speaker 4: have these huge gains on some of the large cap names, 677 00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:26,160 Speaker 4: maybe you hang out with those but you put some 678 00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:29,320 Speaker 4: of your extra cash to work in places like small caps, 679 00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:32,120 Speaker 4: and then I would argue, you know, after this weekend bitcoin, right, 680 00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:35,839 Speaker 4: we see the rally there digital assets and crypto had 681 00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:38,600 Speaker 4: a good, good fall, good pullback, good dip to buy. 682 00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:40,399 Speaker 7: On, and so that might be part of the diversification 683 00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:40,919 Speaker 7: trade too. 684 00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:43,440 Speaker 6: So we we're just kind of getting into the teeth 685 00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:45,879 Speaker 6: of this earning cycle here. What are you looking for 686 00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:47,400 Speaker 6: this time around? 687 00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:52,280 Speaker 7: I'm looking for the same thing I was last time around, 688 00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:52,480 Speaker 7: you know. 689 00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:55,160 Speaker 4: Overall, I mean, it would be it would certainly be 690 00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:58,879 Speaker 4: good to see that ten percent growth that's estimated out 691 00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:01,239 Speaker 4: there for S and P five hundred earnings growth. But 692 00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:03,359 Speaker 4: the truth is, I think we're all going to be 693 00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:06,040 Speaker 4: looking for mag seven. What is the video going to 694 00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:08,440 Speaker 4: do or continue to Will they continue to do what they've. 695 00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:10,759 Speaker 7: Been doing all along? What will Apple look like with 696 00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:11,960 Speaker 7: some of the positive news. 697 00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:15,719 Speaker 4: We've seen about demand picking up WI those will those 698 00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:17,600 Speaker 4: seven hang time continue leading? 699 00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:19,960 Speaker 7: And I think that's what a lot of what the 700 00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:21,839 Speaker 7: market wants to continue to see this year. 701 00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:23,880 Speaker 4: What would be healthier for the market is if we 702 00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:28,760 Speaker 4: saw broad diversification and earnings growth and broad participation across 703 00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:31,160 Speaker 4: the market, But I think the overall sentiment right now 704 00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:34,320 Speaker 4: is still really heavily linked to the mag seven. 705 00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:37,560 Speaker 3: Going back to the bitcoin comment that you said, I 706 00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:39,759 Speaker 3: don't get the bitcoin trade with President Trump, Like, go 707 00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:42,640 Speaker 3: ahead and buy bitcoin shore like safety trade. Okay, fine, 708 00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:44,759 Speaker 3: Like golds at a record high or near a record high. 709 00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:45,040 Speaker 6: Why not? 710 00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:47,600 Speaker 3: But what's the specific link to President Trump here? 711 00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:52,200 Speaker 4: Well, he's crypto friendly, right, He's he's thought to be 712 00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:56,480 Speaker 4: crypto friendly anyway, in recent times he's been you know. 713 00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:59,160 Speaker 7: A little bit more more favorable or. 714 00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:02,880 Speaker 4: At least less doubtful about the viability of crypto as 715 00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:05,600 Speaker 4: an asset. And so, you know, I think that there's 716 00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:09,240 Speaker 4: there's this idea that because he's a potentially crypto favored, 717 00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:13,120 Speaker 4: you know, favorable president, that you know, policies will kind 718 00:36:13,120 --> 00:36:15,960 Speaker 4: of support or at least not diminish the growth of crypto. 719 00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:18,719 Speaker 4: And that being said, I mean I think, you know, 720 00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:21,040 Speaker 4: micro strategy is actually one of my bias too. I think, 721 00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:23,439 Speaker 4: you know, with crypto falling as much as it has 722 00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:25,560 Speaker 4: because of the splid, because of the you know, German 723 00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:28,640 Speaker 4: government offloading positions you have, you have a real good 724 00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:31,400 Speaker 4: dip there, and that's you know, that's part of the 725 00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:34,080 Speaker 4: rally too, but notably crypto rose over the weekend, So 726 00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:35,960 Speaker 4: you have to think that there's a link, you know, 727 00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:40,960 Speaker 4: due to his kind of favorable opinion about digital currency investment. 728 00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:42,799 Speaker 3: Well, I also have the wonder, Paul too, if it's 729 00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:46,640 Speaker 3: just a deregulation and environment for sure, deregulation all the 730 00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:49,000 Speaker 3: way if President Trump wins. I've already seeing that with 731 00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:49,960 Speaker 3: the courts. 732 00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:55,719 Speaker 6: Right exactly. So, uh, Sylvia valuation here, boy, if I 733 00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:58,200 Speaker 6: look at valuation just the surface for y S to 734 00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:01,200 Speaker 6: P five hundred, it feels maybe not frothy, but it 735 00:37:01,280 --> 00:37:04,040 Speaker 6: certainly expensive. Now, some folks say, well, he pull out 736 00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:06,680 Speaker 6: the handful of stocks that are really driving that in 737 00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:09,200 Speaker 6: the Market's not that expensive. How do you kind of 738 00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:10,080 Speaker 6: pursue that? 739 00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:14,280 Speaker 7: Yeah, I agree with that ladder comment. 740 00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:16,440 Speaker 4: You know, pull out, pull out some of the top names, 741 00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:20,319 Speaker 4: and actually it doesn't look so frothy. But I would 742 00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:22,520 Speaker 4: even argue that even for some of the top names 743 00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:25,240 Speaker 4: out there, if you look at companies like Navidio for example, 744 00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:26,080 Speaker 4: that have just you. 745 00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:28,759 Speaker 7: Know, skyrocket in terms of stock performance. 746 00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:31,960 Speaker 4: You know they're certainly justifying their their valuation, right, I Mean, 747 00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:34,840 Speaker 4: earnings have been positive, a lot of these corporations have 748 00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:37,520 Speaker 4: cut you know, massive spending and costs over the last 749 00:37:37,560 --> 00:37:39,839 Speaker 4: couple of years. They're running leaner and meaner. They're more 750 00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,680 Speaker 4: efficient or top and bottom line earnings are coming in. 751 00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:47,960 Speaker 4: You know, the valuations for now to me have been justified, 752 00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:50,600 Speaker 4: and you know, they wouldn't keep me from investing in 753 00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,759 Speaker 4: these stocks going forward, particularly when you get market pullbacks. 754 00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:56,200 Speaker 4: You know, when you get a couple of days ago 755 00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:59,040 Speaker 4: nas XL you know, over two percent and things like that. 756 00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:02,000 Speaker 4: I mean, those are times to enternto the market, particularly 757 00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:04,960 Speaker 4: if you're a longer term shareholder. I'm not opposed to 758 00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:08,680 Speaker 4: getting in, but there are opportunities outside of you know, 759 00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:10,600 Speaker 4: the Mag seven, the companies that do have the higher 760 00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:13,439 Speaker 4: valuations too. So when you hear things like small cap 761 00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:16,880 Speaker 4: rallying and also you know, other parts of the AI trade, 762 00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:21,400 Speaker 4: like like you know, energy and you know, uranium, copper, 763 00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:21,960 Speaker 4: things like this. 764 00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:24,040 Speaker 7: That there are other areas of the market to participate in. 765 00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:25,279 Speaker 7: What the Mag seven are doing. 766 00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:26,200 Speaker 5: Well. 767 00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:28,960 Speaker 3: It's interesting. You know we talk about a rotation though 768 00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:32,399 Speaker 3: right like out of growth into value, but both are 769 00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:35,160 Speaker 3: moving Like you have growth the MAG seven, you have 770 00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:37,960 Speaker 3: the Nasdagnatic one hundred, the S and P and you 771 00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:40,080 Speaker 3: also have the rustle you can you have all these 772 00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:42,239 Speaker 3: things at once, like what what does this tell us 773 00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:43,640 Speaker 3: about where we are? 774 00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:48,640 Speaker 4: Well, that tells us in my mind, that tells us 775 00:38:48,640 --> 00:38:51,640 Speaker 4: that you know, we're in a soft landing and that 776 00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:53,360 Speaker 4: you know the market is a good place to be. 777 00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:56,000 Speaker 4: And so for all of the investors that have you 778 00:38:56,000 --> 00:38:58,560 Speaker 4: know that six trillion of cash that they're sitting on 779 00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:01,560 Speaker 4: in their four to five percent and you know, different 780 00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:05,040 Speaker 4: fixed income types of products, money markets, treasury, things like this. 781 00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:06,759 Speaker 4: You know when you have an S and T five 782 00:39:06,840 --> 00:39:10,640 Speaker 4: hundred and NASDAC that are returning double digits. And we 783 00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:12,640 Speaker 4: do have the sense of a soft landing. We have 784 00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:16,040 Speaker 4: rates coming down. Electioneers had to be favorable for stocks. 785 00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:20,000 Speaker 4: I think you're going to see participation across the markets. 786 00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:22,120 Speaker 4: There will be those who favor momentum and the mag 787 00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:25,239 Speaker 4: seven and there will be those who you know, strategically 788 00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:28,320 Speaker 4: diversify and have have wider market breath exposure. And I 789 00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:30,239 Speaker 4: think that both of those things are happening because we 790 00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:33,239 Speaker 4: are seeing that inflation coming down, that soft landing, and 791 00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:36,680 Speaker 4: that's you know, that's that's what markets want, and that's. 792 00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:37,839 Speaker 7: The sweet spot right now. 793 00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:40,200 Speaker 4: Not to say that volatility isn't going to come our way, 794 00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:42,640 Speaker 4: but I do think that at this moment, we're in 795 00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:43,920 Speaker 4: that soft landing sweet spot. 796 00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:45,960 Speaker 6: All right, Sylvia, thank you so much for joining us. 797 00:39:45,960 --> 00:39:50,360 Speaker 6: Silvia Derblonski, chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer, defines ATFS. 798 00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:55,279 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on apples, Spotify, 799 00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:58,400 Speaker 2: and anywhere else you will get your podcasts. 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