Speaker 1: Dr Jeff mccauslind is, the CBS News military consultant, founder
Speaker 1: and CEO of diamond six leadership and strategy, L L C.
Speaker 1: Retired colonel from the United States Army, among other distinctions. Jeff,
Speaker 1: it's always a pleasure. How are you, sir? Doing very well, guys,
Speaker 1: great to be with you. I've got a couple of
Speaker 1: specific questions I know I want to get to, but
Speaker 1: first just what was your reaction when Putin gave his
Speaker 1: big speech talking about the calling up the three hundred
Speaker 1: thousand and threatening nuclear war? Well, you know, Yogi Berra,
Speaker 1: who very famous Yankee and philosopher, once said you come
Speaker 1: to the fork in the road, take it, and I
Speaker 1: think that's what Mr Putin did. He had two options,
Speaker 1: as things have gotten very, very dismal for him for
Speaker 1: the last several weeks. One was to escalate and the
Speaker 1: second one was to suddenly have the propaganda machine start
Speaker 1: turning out how successful we've been. We we spanked the Ukrainians,
Speaker 1: we killed off all the Nazis and called for a
Speaker 1: ceasefire to kind of freeze this in place and try
Speaker 1: to get the Europeans to bring Lynskey to negotiating table.
Speaker 1: Obviously he picked. He picked the fork for the escalation,
Speaker 1: and he's escalated in three ways. One you've mentioned. That,
Speaker 1: of course, is be calling up a three thousand reservists.
Speaker 1: The second was this rattling of the nuclear saver, though
Speaker 1: I want to point out this also is part of
Speaker 1: the narrative because it's described in terms of Russia is threatened,
Speaker 1: the motherland is threatned. It's not about taking over territory
Speaker 1: of spank and Nazis. He's painting this as you know.
Speaker 1: Russia is now threatened and we'll use these weapons to
Speaker 1: defend our integrity. And then the third escalation, of course,
Speaker 1: was this now sham, the referendums. They're going to occur
Speaker 1: over the next several days and the area is occupied
Speaker 1: by Russia, actually making that Russian territory. Well then, the
Speaker 1: the extension of that thought being, well, if the Ukrainians attacked,
Speaker 1: quote unquote, Russian territory, he's justified in using at least
Speaker 1: technical nukes. UH, possibility to horrifying to contemplate, although I
Speaker 1: suppose we have to exactly right, and that puts that
Speaker 1: degree of at least ambiguity that he could escalate that
Speaker 1: point out to defend those particular territories, because they're now Russian.
Speaker 1: Has always been a point of concerns since this war began,
Speaker 1: because the Ukrainians have talked a lot about liberating all
Speaker 1: their territory and they would tell you that includes Crimea,
Speaker 1: which the Russians took in two thousand and fourteen, and
Speaker 1: the doom of voted to make that incorporate that into
Speaker 1: the Russian Federation. From the Russians perspective, Crimea has been
Speaker 1: Russian territory since two thousand and fourteen. So that question
Speaker 1: of using nuclear weapons to defend territorial integrity has been
Speaker 1: out there. Now he expands that. But I come back
Speaker 1: to the point. This also serves to try to motivate
Speaker 1: the population back and back in Russia by saying this
Speaker 1: is all about defense of the homeland, because he's tried to,
Speaker 1: I think, insulate the population from the lfx of this
Speaker 1: war and probably, since it's being a partial mobilization, I
Speaker 1: still think has a concern they're doing so we'll elicit
Speaker 1: some kind of social disruption in Russia amongst the population.
Speaker 1: Response then we have seen some evidence of that in
Speaker 1: the last far yet out well, backing up a couple
Speaker 1: of weeks, which is what led us to Putin's speech
Speaker 1: the other day, when Ukraine had their stunning blitzkrieg, driving
Speaker 1: the Russians out of a whole bunch of areas that
Speaker 1: nobody seemed to predict, which led it to this. And
Speaker 1: I don't know what your opinion is of General David
Speaker 1: Petreas former CI director and commander, but he said the
Speaker 1: other day on CNN that he he stated that the
Speaker 1: outcome of the war is no longer in doubt. Ukraine
Speaker 1: is going to win. It could be a slow slog
Speaker 1: but they are going to this is a major tide turning.
Speaker 1: You know event. Do you do you agree with that?
Speaker 1: Do you think? Do you think the tide has turned
Speaker 1: that much? Well, I know day fairly well and I've
Speaker 1: got great respect for days. I think this could been
Speaker 1: looked at as an inflection point. That's normally found in
Speaker 1: retrospect as opposed in in the immediate moment. I think
Speaker 1: at this moment we can say one thing for sure.
Speaker 1: Russia has lost this war. There are no two ways
Speaker 1: about it. They are objective was to take over Ukraine
Speaker 1: put down the GARENSI government. They failed in doing that.
Speaker 1: Then their objective was the seas, at least the past,
Speaker 1: land all the way over to a descent. They failed
Speaker 1: to do that and now they're sort of concentrating on
Speaker 1: trying to secure these provinces, Lohanskan Ganets, but they've now
Speaker 1: failed to do that and this counter offensive makes it
Speaker 1: virtually impossible. And then foreseeable future they're going to do that.
Speaker 1: So now this whole war is back to defending the homeland.
Speaker 1: My goodness, you were invaded and now it's all about
Speaker 1: you're the victim, which is kind of an odd way
Speaker 1: to turn things around. So and the effect on the
Speaker 1: Russians in terms of the loss of life, a hundred
Speaker 1: thousand casualties, massive amounts of military hardware. The reputation of
Speaker 1: the Russian military is in total disrepute. It will take
Speaker 1: years and years just to rebuild the military of Russia
Speaker 1: if they stopped today. And that doesn't even account for
Speaker 1: the effects this. This is going to have on the
Speaker 1: Russian economy longer term, and some of the economists have
Speaker 1: told me it might be fifty years before they recover
Speaker 1: from this. Half a million Russians have fled, most of
Speaker 1: them young people who are very bright. A so called
Speaker 1: brain drain has occurred. So Russia has law. Whether or
Speaker 1: not Ukraine has won. You've got to define what what
Speaker 1: when win looks like. If it's taking back all those territories,
Speaker 1: that could be hard. If it's going back to the
Speaker 1: status COO anti, that's certainly possible. Jeff mccauslin, CBS News,
Speaker 1: military consultant on the line. UH, Jeff. Given the state
Speaker 1: of the disrepair of the Russian military, as you mentioned,
Speaker 1: what's it going to look like trying to incorporate some
Speaker 1: portion of that? Three hundred thousand young men called up?
Speaker 1: I mean these are guys who are having to be
Speaker 1: dragged into the battle in most cases. I think that's
Speaker 1: gonna be true and it's gonna take a long period
Speaker 1: of time. This is not gonna have any really significant
Speaker 1: military impact in the immediate future. It's gonna take a
Speaker 1: significant period time to identify these people, bring them up
Speaker 1: in a fashion that your training base can at least
Speaker 1: give them some modest amount of retraining. They all have
Speaker 1: some military experience, and then either form new units or
Speaker 1: use those of individual replacements to fill out units that
Speaker 1: have suffered some degree of casually. Probably initially start with officers,
Speaker 1: to fill out officers and units that have been lost,
Speaker 1: people with special skills, think of doctors or medical people.
Speaker 1: They might start bringing some of them in fairly quickly.
Speaker 1: In terms of overall military cigificant is gonna take a
Speaker 1: longer period of time and I don't think we'll see
Speaker 1: the effects of that really occurring until next spring. secondarily,
Speaker 1: of course, it has some other effects which are interesting
Speaker 1: and and that is part and partialist announcement. Also was
Speaker 1: what we would call in the U S military stop laws.
Speaker 1: So if you're a Russian soldier right now serving in
Speaker 1: Ukrane and your enlistments supposed to run out sometime between
Speaker 1: now and the end of winter, guess what, you've just
Speaker 1: been extended until the war is over. Congratulations that. That's
Speaker 1: not gonna be a real morale booster. Oh by the way. Uh,
Speaker 1: and we've seen evidence already in some of the some
Speaker 1: of the demonstrations that are occurring, that some of the demonstrators,
Speaker 1: when they're arrested, are immediately drafted. They get their hand
Speaker 1: their draft and not thiss just because you're you're out
Speaker 1: there demonstrating again. Not Going to be a real morale
Speaker 1: case if you are actually put in the uniform, and
Speaker 1: we've seen throughout this particular offensive over the last few
Speaker 1: weeks been morale and cohesion in the Russian forces is
Speaker 1: rather disastrous, with Russian units were choosing to fight. In
Speaker 1: some cases we've seen Russian soldiers taking off their uniforms,
Speaker 1: putting on to then closed and running away, writing letters
Speaker 1: to their parents telling them that it's a humanitarian crisis,
Speaker 1: they have no food or water, and those are the
Speaker 1: issues that Russia is gonna have to deal with and
Speaker 1: it tries to bring this three thousand man force into
Speaker 1: the military to have some significant effect. I just had
Speaker 1: a thought. I'M gonna call an audible. Joey, you have
Speaker 1: any more questions about Russia? I'm good. What did you
Speaker 1: think when the president of the United States said the
Speaker 1: other day that, you know, we're willing to whisk risk,
Speaker 1: blood and treasure to defend Taiwan from China? And this
Speaker 1: has been an interesting one. Mr Biden, I think, has
Speaker 1: said this basically about four times now, that the United
Speaker 1: States would defend Taiwan, uh and repeatedly. His staff kind
Speaker 1: of walks is back, because the United States has for
Speaker 1: the last thirty four years had this to China policy, recognizing,
Speaker 1: you know, that China is the government but at the
Speaker 1: same time having strategic ambiguity about how will react. And
Speaker 1: I have to think that Mr Biden is not doing
Speaker 1: this and making mistakes four times over. He's just trying
Speaker 1: to over time, I think enhanced that degree of ambiguity
Speaker 1: to the Chinese about how the United States would respond,
Speaker 1: and that ambiguity, I think, would be argued in the Pentagon.
Speaker 1: Enhances the turn effect. And secondarily, I think if the
Speaker 1: Chinese look at what's occurred to the Russians in the Ukraine,
Speaker 1: they might be a bit more somber about the possibility
Speaker 1: of invading Taiwan. The response from the West that a
Speaker 1: smaller country can respond pretty vigorously on the defense. Oh
Speaker 1: by the way, it's an amphibious assault, the most difficult
Speaker 1: military operation going. So I think Mr g might take
Speaker 1: this a bit more somber when he thinks about the
Speaker 1: possibility of a military invasion of Taiwan. Twist and turns
Speaker 1: of history. I know you're a history buff. Just Putin's
Speaker 1: single man decision to invade Ukraine goes horribly wrong, might
Speaker 1: end up stopping China from invading Taiwan, which would have
Speaker 1: started world war three. So World War three is averted.
Speaker 1: Because Putin's a nut job. I mean just you know.
Speaker 1: History is weird that way. I hope you're correct, and
Speaker 1: all those picture things you just said. Yeah, Dr Jeff mccaslin,
Speaker 1: CBS News, military consultant. Always enlightening, Jeff, thanks so much
Speaker 1: for the time. Thanks, guys,