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Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway. Tracy, you know,

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Speaker 1: there's this weird thing going on. There's always weird things

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Speaker 1: going on. Yeah, I was gonna say, you have to

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Speaker 1: narrow it down. I'm gonna I'm gonna narrow it down.

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Speaker 1: There's this weird thing going on right now where investors

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Speaker 1: are really excited about car companies, even though car companies

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Speaker 1: are like barely selling any cars these days because of

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Speaker 1: the chip shortage. Yeah. I have noticed this too, particularly

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Speaker 1: by the way over um in China, Like, there is

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Speaker 1: just a massive amount of capital moving into cars at

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Speaker 1: the moment, but it's concentrated in one particular type of car,

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Speaker 1: which would be you know, electric nicles or um some

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Speaker 1: sort of hybrid plug in type things. Like. We have

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Speaker 1: seen so much money move into that space recently, and

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Speaker 1: I think part of it is the enthusiasm for tech

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Speaker 1: that we saw last year, Right, People are looking for

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Speaker 1: those big structural shifts, and the idea of electric cars

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Speaker 1: is definitely one of those things. The weird thing though, too,

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Speaker 1: And you know, I'll move it back to the US

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Speaker 1: perspective for a second is like, okay, everyone knows like Tesla,

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Speaker 1: it's done sort of this way. It was way out

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Speaker 1: ahead of the space and the legacy automakers have you know,

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Speaker 1: are catching up and they're rolling out more and more

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Speaker 1: electric vehicles, but like they're getting a lot of credit

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Speaker 1: for it, at least recently like four past a billion dollars.

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Speaker 1: It's not like these companies are like crushing it yet

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Speaker 1: as far as I can tell on the e vs,

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Speaker 1: but they're getting a lot of credit for it. And

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Speaker 1: as you mentioned, sales exploding in China. It's just investors

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Speaker 1: not only seemed to rate like uh be bullshvs, but

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Speaker 1: really just think like there's gonna be tons of winners

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Speaker 1: into space. It's it's a is a lot of optimism. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: well it kind of begs the question as well, like

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Speaker 1: how much does it take for an old school car

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Speaker 1: company to convert itself into an electric vehicle manufacturer? And

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Speaker 1: here I have to admit I really don't know anything

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Speaker 1: about the technical differences between building gas powered car versus

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Speaker 1: an electric car, but it seems to me like you

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Speaker 1: cannot just flip a switch and suddenly go into you know,

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Speaker 1: procuring batteries and making e V s. So I'm very

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Speaker 1: curious how much of this, this narrative about the old

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Speaker 1: school auto companies suddenly becoming e V manufacturers, how much

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Speaker 1: of that is hype versus reality. There's so many questions

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Speaker 1: I have on that, Like, you know, one of the

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Speaker 1: themes that we've talked to on many episodes, especially with

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Speaker 1: advanced manufacturing, is this idea of like so of like

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Speaker 1: tacit knowledge is something Dan Long talks a lot about.

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Speaker 1: Something we've talked a lot about our semi conductor episodes,

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Speaker 1: like do you just have the institutional knowledge to abuild

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Speaker 1: these things? And then you're right, like there are different processes.

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Speaker 1: I remember we had a good story a couple of

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Speaker 1: years ago about the unions in Germany being very anxious

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Speaker 1: about the EV transition because there are fewer parts in

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Speaker 1: theory that means for your workers. So all kinds of

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Speaker 1: huge questions about how this is going to work and

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Speaker 1: what what the EV transformation will look like, and like you,

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Speaker 1: I really just like don't know much about this stuff,

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Speaker 1: but it's happening so fast that I think we better,

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Speaker 1: we better catch up. Yeah, let's do it, let's do it.

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Speaker 1: I am very excited for today's guest, we are going

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Speaker 1: to be speaking to Nett Bullard. He is the chief

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Speaker 1: content officer at Bloomberg and e F and one of

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Speaker 1: the most knowledgeable people here at Bloomberg about all types

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Speaker 1: of things ev energy, transitions, energy, tech, cars and all

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Speaker 1: of it. Neat, thank you so much for joining us,

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Speaker 1: Joe and Tracy, thank you for having me. As I

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Speaker 1: used to say in radio, long time listener, first time caller,

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Speaker 1: so a treat to be here. Thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: So to get it right off the bat, like the

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Speaker 1: evy revolution is on right, like this is happening. That's right.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we're right now at a position of let's see,

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Speaker 1: ten years ago, less than a tenth of a percent

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Speaker 1: sales of global cars were electric, and the third quarter

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Speaker 1: of last year it was ten globally. And there is

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Speaker 1: of course some regional difference within that. As you can imagine.

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Speaker 1: China finished the year in December more than EV sales,

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Speaker 1: and that's the world's biggest car market. That was three

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Speaker 1: point three million evs sold. Europe was about seventeen and

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Speaker 1: a half percent. It's probably gonna end of the year, ABU,

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Speaker 1: the US and the rest of North America a little

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Speaker 1: bit lagging, you know, about ness than four percent in

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Speaker 1: the in the fourth quarter or third quarter rather, but Nonethele,

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Speaker 1: the trend very clearly is the electric vehicle's friend in

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Speaker 1: this case. I mean, this is something that looks like

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Speaker 1: a very classic steep part of the ES curve in

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Speaker 1: and exponential growth, and it's happening much more rapidly than

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Speaker 1: even a lot of people embedded in the space would

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Speaker 1: have expected. And so it's really a fascinating time. And

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Speaker 1: not just because you know, a lot of units are

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Speaker 1: being moved in cars, but because, as you hinted at Joe,

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Speaker 1: there are a lot of other industries adjacent to that,

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Speaker 1: and I think, you know, we can have time to

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Speaker 1: explore that maybe today, that it's so much more than

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Speaker 1: just the car in terms of adjacent industries, things that

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Speaker 1: flow into and out of this, what it means for

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Speaker 1: all kinds of stuff, for the built environment, for behaviors

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Speaker 1: that customers have, and for new competitions probably emerging and

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Speaker 1: new coalitions emerging between all of these different sectors that

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Speaker 1: might previously not have had much of a connection. So

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Speaker 1: can I just ask, I suppose the most basic question here,

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Speaker 1: and you mentioned that demand for electric vehicles has really

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Speaker 1: taken off in recent years. What is driving those sales, Like,

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Speaker 1: what is the attraction of an electric vehicle to a

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Speaker 1: normal buyer who's out there thinking of getting a new car.

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Speaker 1: So there's there's there's probably three things at the point.

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Speaker 1: One undoubtedly is policy, so policies that either put limits

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Speaker 1: on the amount of emissions per kilometer or mild driven

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Speaker 1: in some jurisdictions, or policies that incentivized buying an EV,

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Speaker 1: which is a relatively common thing here in the United

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Speaker 1: States at the federal and the state level. The other

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Speaker 1: is this sort of industrial reorganization that some companies have

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Speaker 1: done around this that just sort of made it a

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Speaker 1: decision that, you know, going towards things that are mechanically

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Speaker 1: simpler may be advantageous for their for their few, your

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Speaker 1: production um. And then there's also, you know, the element

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Speaker 1: that consumers. It turns out in many cases actually like

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Speaker 1: the electric vehicle experience, and I think we should probably

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Speaker 1: widen out what that experience means. Obviously, driving wise, it's

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Speaker 1: very different. It's almost impossible to find somebody who's driven

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Speaker 1: an EV for the first time. It doesn't say, Wow,

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Speaker 1: that's a great driving experience. But it's also a buying

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Speaker 1: experience that's very different for many people. And you know,

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Speaker 1: it's it's something that that falls into a an interesting

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Speaker 1: place I think in our individual capital stack. Like for

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Speaker 1: most people, of cars probably the second biggest thing that

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Speaker 1: they acquire in their life after a house. But most

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Speaker 1: people were probably acquiring more cars than they are houses

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Speaker 1: every time. And there's all kinds of other stuff that

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Speaker 1: goes with it. There's he the hedonic signaling of who

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Speaker 1: you want people to think you are, what you are

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Speaker 1: aligned to. You know, how do you drive technology? I mean,

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Speaker 1: anybody can have an iPhone, not everybody can yet have

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Speaker 1: an electric vehicle, but you you can do a lot

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Speaker 1: of signaling with it. And and one thing that I

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Speaker 1: think is unique and talking about this big sector that

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Speaker 1: intersects all these other relatively stayed things like electricity or

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Speaker 1: oil and gas, is that there's an element of personal

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Speaker 1: choice here and style. But that is a challenge for

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Speaker 1: a lot of long term planners to think of because

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Speaker 1: it's never really been a thing. It hasn't hasn't been

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Speaker 1: much of a powertrain choice in cars from like a

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Speaker 1: hundred and twenty years really until really right now. So

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Speaker 1: I strongly. I still have a regular annult car internal

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Speaker 1: combustion engine, but I think, you know, the next time

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Speaker 1: I got a car, it's gonna be an e V.

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Speaker 1: And I had that experience where I drove someone's and

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Speaker 1: it's just like so smooth and nice. And then I

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Speaker 1: went back to my car and it's like, you know,

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Speaker 1: did that thing where like sort of like coughs and

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Speaker 1: hiccups to start type And as I got and you

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Speaker 1: know what, it felt like. It felt like going from

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Speaker 1: an iPhone back to like a flip phone. It was

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Speaker 1: just like, well, and I this analogy is not bad, actually, Joey,

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Speaker 1: you've gone back to candy bar que is and physical

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Speaker 1: clicks as opposed to a seamless kind of universal service experience.

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Speaker 1: So you hinted at this and then you said something

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Speaker 1: specific and like, Okay, this is going to hit so

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Speaker 1: many different adjacent industries because it's not just a technological change.

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Speaker 1: It's going to change everything. You said, the buying experience

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Speaker 1: is fundamentally different, which of course calls to mind the

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Speaker 1: power of the dealer networks of the legacy automakers. We

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Speaker 1: know that dealers are politically powerful, and you know there's

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Speaker 1: this sole established way people go to a car and

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Speaker 1: they haggle and they get off and you know, uh

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Speaker 1: a year of satellite radio, et cetera. What makes the

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Speaker 1: buying experience unique for evs? Why will that inevitably change? Well,

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Speaker 1: I should I should qualify that a little bit, which

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Speaker 1: is that it's it's for the hure play EV companies,

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Speaker 1: they're just doing direct sales. The challenge I think is

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Speaker 1: going to come about for a GM or a FORD

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Speaker 1: or a VW group that obviously has this huge embedded

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Speaker 1: dealer network that it works with that wants to sell things,

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Speaker 1: you know, to get the to get that undercoat, to

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Speaker 1: get the four mats thrown in. You know, you've got

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Speaker 1: to maybe cut a deal on your your service schedule

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Speaker 1: or something like that. So you've got kind of two

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Speaker 1: poles set up, which is one we haven't we have

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Speaker 1: a new product, and if we're going to stand up

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Speaker 1: in a new market, why not just do it differently?

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Speaker 1: I mean, the Internet does exist for all of these companies,

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Speaker 1: and if you can kind of force a lot of

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Speaker 1: your energy and attention into the web interface, you can

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Speaker 1: probably save on other things versus you know, putting putting

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Speaker 1: the car into a new electric car into a universe

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Speaker 1: of other existing models, wherein you're presenting a choice within

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Speaker 1: a brand that may be kind of challenging, and that

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Speaker 1: itself implies all kinds of different stuff about how well

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Speaker 1: does the sales staff know to sell an enter field book?

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Speaker 1: Do they know that, do they know the KPIs to

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Speaker 1: talk about when they're pitching it, do they know the specs?

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Speaker 1: And also do they know what kind of experienced sort

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Speaker 1: that they could promise down the line. But there's a

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Speaker 1: wrinkle to that, which is that you know, um, you

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Speaker 1: handed at this in your introduction. You know, uh, the

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Speaker 1: engine and a BMW has got hundreds of moving cards,

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Speaker 1: the murder in electric vehicle has a few dozen, and

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Speaker 1: the battery itself is something that has much less complication

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Speaker 1: to it in one sense, in terms of mechanical moving

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Speaker 1: parts than the entire power train of an internal combustion

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Speaker 1: engine vehicle. And that's a long way of saying that

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Speaker 1: there's a huge amount of embedded attention and business in

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Speaker 1: the maintenance schedule for keeping a bunch of hot, contacting

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Speaker 1: metal parts that need lubrication and precision matching to work.

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Speaker 1: In the business like that, that's a huge part of

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Speaker 1: the business. In fact, the last time I got an

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Speaker 1: internal combustion engine car, I have a Subaru outbag. I

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Speaker 1: actually had to essentially sign a waiver top out of

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Speaker 1: the maintenance schedule that they wanted to try to sell me.

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Speaker 1: Because that that's a big part of the recurring revenue

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Speaker 1: relationship that are the card dealers have with individuals. So

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Speaker 1: we we've we've created this this inherent tension between not

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Speaker 1: only what you're selling, but how you're selling, and also

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Speaker 1: what people need to know and how they need to

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Speaker 1: convey that selling experience and stuff like that. And yes,

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Speaker 1: it's gotten a huge amount of pushback from the dealers

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Speaker 1: and as you, as you indicated, dealers are very very

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Speaker 1: powerful locally. I mean pretty much every jurisdiction in the

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Speaker 1: United States has got some kind of card dealer in it,

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Speaker 1: versus not every jurisdiction having say, an auto manufacturer in it,

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Speaker 1: and even fewer that have purely electric manufacture. So, just

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Speaker 1: on a related note to the differences in the buying experience,

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Speaker 1: could you maybe walk us through the different fronts in

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Speaker 1: manufacturing a traditional car versus an electric vehicle. And I

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Speaker 1: guess one thing I'm curious about is whether or not

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Speaker 1: something like building e vs actually requires a different work culture,

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Speaker 1: I guess, to building traditional vehicles. You know, people think

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Speaker 1: of companies like Tesla as hardcore tech, you know, really innovating,

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Speaker 1: doing something new, and when people look at GM, they

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Speaker 1: tend to think of an old school car company, and

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Speaker 1: it just seems like there's a big cultural divide there.

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Speaker 1: Now there's there's absolutely a big cultural divide, and I

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Speaker 1: think we should sort of clarify a couple of things.

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Speaker 1: So manufacturing the body of a car, if it's going

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Speaker 1: to be stamped steel, you know, if you're going to

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Speaker 1: be putting seats into it, if it's going to have

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Speaker 1: windshields and windscreens, it's going to have wheels and tires

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Speaker 1: and breaks. These things are largely coming from the same

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Speaker 1: kind of supply chains and the same type of manufacturing.

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Speaker 1: But it's kind of the core I p. And I

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Speaker 1: would also say a lot of the corporate identity elements

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Speaker 1: that are kind of in fundamental conflict as you move

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Speaker 1: from internal combustion engine to e v s, and that's

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Speaker 1: the replacement of this massively complex and massively precise set

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Speaker 1: of things that have been optimized for more than a

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Speaker 1: hundred years to take things, take a fuel aeroson wise

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Speaker 1: it exploded, turn that into momentum that then it makes

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Speaker 1: the vehicle move, and that then also in the process

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Speaker 1: dissipates heat, gets rid of gases and all these things,

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Speaker 1: and in the process of course, moves the vehicle, replacing

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Speaker 1: it with a large, sealed up more or less inert

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Speaker 1: slab of electronics that is oftentimes integrated somewhere else. And

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Speaker 1: then motors that may or may not be made in

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Speaker 1: house by an auto company and then put together in

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Speaker 1: a in a in a package that looks the same

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Speaker 1: on the surface and that does the same job. It's

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Speaker 1: still moving a car, but that definitely kind of changes

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Speaker 1: the frontier of where companies see a lot of their identity.

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Speaker 1: Like a great example here is that as that Honda

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Speaker 1: in Korea has just closed, it's R and D center

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Speaker 1: that develops new internal combustion engines that they've had this

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Speaker 1: for thirty nine years, Like this was a massive part

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Speaker 1: of the company's identity to be stood up as an

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Speaker 1: independent company was to do this. You know, the chief

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Speaker 1: of R and D there said that, you know, it's

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Speaker 1: an inevitable to convert into electrification, and that our engine

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Speaker 1: development is a great achievement, but we must change the

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Speaker 1: system to create future innovation based on this great asset

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Speaker 1: from the path. So I guess it's a big psychological moment,

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Speaker 1: like you know, what, what battle are you fighting technically

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Speaker 1: within the automobile? Is it for greater efficiency? Is it

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Speaker 1: for more speed and power and torque? All of those

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Speaker 1: things that used to run through hundreds of moving parts

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Speaker 1: being integrated into an engine and through a very sophisticated

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Speaker 1: R and D apparatus are now having to rotate completely.

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Speaker 1: And it is a really important question to ask, like

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Speaker 1: how much of that can carry over from one place

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Speaker 1: to another. Now, assembling a car carries over, but making

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Speaker 1: and making a battery pack and a motor maybe just not.

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Speaker 1: So you actually just mentioned one question, Um that I

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Speaker 1: wanted to ask, which is where do batteries actually come

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Speaker 1: from for electric vehicles? And do any e V manufacturers

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Speaker 1: actually make their own batteries. Yes, Tescam makes its own

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Speaker 1: for long term of course, in partnership with Pana sonic Um.

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Speaker 1: There are a number of manufacturers not far from you

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Speaker 1: in southern China, S A, T, L and B y D.

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Speaker 1: There's there's an increasing interest in doing manufacturing in Europe

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Speaker 1: and some here in the America's as well. And again

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Speaker 1: this this will be an intriguing question to see how

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Speaker 1: it plays out in terms of do companies have our

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Speaker 1: company is able to I don't know, better leverage their

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Speaker 1: supply chains by being diverse, having a number of suppliers,

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Speaker 1: or are they better off taking everything in the house,

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Speaker 1: you know. On the motors side, the analogy would be

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Speaker 1: that many automakers may do their R and D, but

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Speaker 1: they have a third party here, one supplier that manufactures motors.

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Speaker 1: So it's you know, it's a bit of it's a

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Speaker 1: bit of both at the moment. But but again it's

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Speaker 1: very very different, and it's very highly concentrated at the moment,

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Speaker 1: given given the fact that so much of this capability

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Speaker 1: is it China and the rest of East Asia. God,

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Speaker 1: you know, there are so many different avenues we could

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Speaker 1: go down, and already feel like Tracy, We're gonna have

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Speaker 1: to do like ten episodes this here, because I'm sure

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Speaker 1: I could ask an hour's worth of questions necessarily, like

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Speaker 1: just on battery manufacture and then of course the chemicals

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Speaker 1: and commodities that go into battery manufacturer. So like it's already,

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Speaker 1: like my head is like spinning out at different thoughts.

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Speaker 1: But I want to go back to this question of

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Speaker 1: what becomes of a of a automaker's identity in this

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Speaker 1: sort of evy world. And something I'm sort of like

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Speaker 1: wondering about is, you know, and like the late nineties

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Speaker 1: with the personal computer, and suddenly it's like, okay, everyone

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Speaker 1: just like puts the same operating system in the computer,

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Speaker 1: and everyone puts the same Intel chip in it, and

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Speaker 1: suddenly all these like computer makers more or less lose

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Speaker 1: their identity, and you know, we can sort of remember

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Speaker 1: all the ones that fell by the wayside, like Compact

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Speaker 1: and so forth. Is there a risk that that happens

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Speaker 1: in autos where the tech sort of is really happening

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Speaker 1: somewhere else and they're sort of like assembling the same

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Speaker 1: parts as everyone else and don't really have any sort

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Speaker 1: of unique purpose anymore. It's a really great question, And

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Speaker 1: I actually like this analogy because I can put it

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Speaker 1: right back into a question, which is, if we think

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Speaker 1: back to the late nineties, was there anybody who came

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Speaker 1: be it as like I'm a compact guy. Sorry, you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm a gateway. I'm a gateway man, my family has

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Speaker 1: been a gateway. Man that song I'm ever going to

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Speaker 1: use for my desktop PC. Like Dell almost got there,

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Speaker 1: They'll almost got dude, You're getting a Dell, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that was the closest it almost got there. I would

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Speaker 1: say Apple has definitely carved that territory, even for people

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Speaker 1: who spent some sort of years in the technical wilderness

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Speaker 1: with with Apples. But I think the auto identity is

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Speaker 1: not only deeper, but I mean it is really like

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Speaker 1: multi generational. My family as F one, not for it's

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Speaker 1: F one, and they've had since we since my stepfather

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Speaker 1: was buying them off construction site seventies. Like that identity

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Speaker 1: is as old as I am in a sense, and

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Speaker 1: so is definitely a challenge for the big manufacturer, which

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Speaker 1: is you know where where does the kind of the

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Speaker 1: loyalty lie within? That is case in which people saying

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Speaker 1: like I love the F one fifty, but now that

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Speaker 1: it's gone electric, I won't buy anything from four or

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Speaker 1: on the other hand, and this is data from Ford

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Speaker 1: last month, is it the case that by electrifying an

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Speaker 1: iconic nameplate the Machi and the F one fift lightning,

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Speaker 1: are you able to new people to your brand and

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Speaker 1: actually think fourd's case is really instructive because they've got

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Speaker 1: about two reservations for the F one Lightning and THEE

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Speaker 1: for those of you outside the US, is the best

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Speaker 1: selling car or vehicle in the United States for more

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Speaker 1: than four decades. They have two reservations, of which sev

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Speaker 1: of the customers are new to Ford, which is pretty

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Speaker 1: extraordinary if you if you think about it from a

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Speaker 1: captured perspective, being able to sure market in doing that

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Speaker 1: is pretty great if you're looking at this as a manufacturer.

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Speaker 1: That said, there's always the risk of, I think the

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Speaker 1: kind of the E V one experience, which is also

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Speaker 1: from the late nineties, of delivering a subpar experience and

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Speaker 1: not necessarily self sabotaging it, but under selling it. And

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Speaker 1: that could take the form of deliberately saying this is

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Speaker 1: a compliance vehicle and we're not really interested in it,

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Speaker 1: to kind of the soft pedal version, which is people

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Speaker 1: just don't know how to sell it, but I but

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Speaker 1: it seems to be that that with the electrification of

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Speaker 1: the two best selling the F one Fifting Lighting and

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Speaker 1: the Chevy Silverado full size truck, that you've got this

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Speaker 1: and this sort of interpoment of new things into into

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Speaker 1: an old not just brand, but an old nameplate that

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Speaker 1: people have a lot of loyalty to. So I think

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Speaker 1: it's going to be extremely interesting to see how this

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Speaker 1: plays out. Because of the time. Of course, you have

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Speaker 1: companies building off of their own like what Eon Musket

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Speaker 1: call first principles for e v s and that's not

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Speaker 1: just obviously tested, but that's Ribban, that's Lucid. You know,

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Speaker 1: the two friend vehicles of the years on the truck

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Speaker 1: with the Lucid air car and the Ribban R one

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Speaker 1: P truck. So with all this attention on electric vehicles,

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Speaker 1: investors getting very enthusiastic about the space, as Joe mentioned

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Speaker 1: in the intro, lots of money flowing into it. Do

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Speaker 1: we see any signs or should we be at all

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Speaker 1: concerned about over supply? And one of the reasons I

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Speaker 1: ask is because in China at least, we have seen

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Speaker 1: some ev companies that you know, set themselves up, attracted

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Speaker 1: a lot of initial investment, and then seemed to very

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Speaker 1: quietly shut down. And I guess one follow up question,

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Speaker 1: and it's related to your point about brand loyalty earlier,

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Speaker 1: but what does being competitive in the e V space

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Speaker 1: actually look like. And how do you differentiate between winners

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Speaker 1: first as losers as far as the knots of brands

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Speaker 1: popping up and then quietly going away. Well, that looks

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Speaker 1: very much like the early days of the auto industry,

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Speaker 1: right large. You know, when we had hundreds of manufacturers

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Speaker 1: in the United States, and you know, some of them

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Speaker 1: lasted longer than others. There were packards around and then

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Speaker 1: our parents were born. But you know, Stuts as a

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Speaker 1: brand is no longer with us, Detroit Electric is no

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Speaker 1: longer with us. There are are more things that fall

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Speaker 1: by the wayside than not. And actually, maybe to go

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Speaker 1: back for our sort of best stop computing analogy, it

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Speaker 1: may be the same kind of thing. Lots of people

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Speaker 1: are trying something similar. Differentiation will be determined maybe more

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Speaker 1: by the market by anything else. But another wrinkle to this,

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Speaker 1: and I hinted that I would afford, is that the

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Speaker 1: fact that you that a lot of these new models

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Speaker 1: are kind of doing a determination of product market fit

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Speaker 1: and products scale by asking for reservations. Yeah, is a

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Speaker 1: way kind of size the market and events. So for instance,

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Speaker 1: Forward doubled and then doubled again the planned production capacity

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Speaker 1: for the uplift lightning based on reservations. So rather rather

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Speaker 1: than like stuffing a lot with product that nobody wants

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Speaker 1: to move, what they're working for here is is a

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Speaker 1: more supple and a more kind of bi directional sense

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Speaker 1: of demand and supply at the same time. I'm not

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Speaker 1: quite sure how that plays in the in the Chinese

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Speaker 1: auto market, but it's definitely something that as as companies

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Speaker 1: are testing the thesis here in the AIDS, they're finding

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Speaker 1: that the reservation method is is an interesting way to

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Speaker 1: get things going. Um, and it's been you know, it's also,

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Speaker 1: let's be honest, it's also been part of a very

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Speaker 1: nice story to tell the markets when when Ford is

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Speaker 1: able to go to the market and say it an

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Speaker 1: investor today, Hey, look we doubled our we double production

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Speaker 1: based on reservations, and then we're doubling it again based

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Speaker 1: on reservations. You know, I was gonna ask you, you know,

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Speaker 1: you mentioned that the four F one fifty, the electric version,

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Speaker 1: it's had this extraordinary thing. New people are coming into it.

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Speaker 1: What about your family or the old the families of

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Speaker 1: F one fifty loyalists who had one specific idea about

432
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:33,920
Speaker 1: what an F one fifty was are they excited. I

433
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 1: don't mean your family specifically, although maybe you can answer,

434
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:40,639
Speaker 1: but are the generations of F one fifty owners showing

435
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:44,360
Speaker 1: enthusiasm for switching over to an electric version? I haven't

436
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 1: seen that data yet, but I'm gonna sort of I'm

437
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:50,200
Speaker 1: gonna game this now, which is first tailgate and you're

438
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:55,880
Speaker 1: the dude who can run like hundred watt sound system

439
00:25:56,800 --> 00:26:00,439
Speaker 1: your car. You pop up in the front trunk and

440
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:02,119
Speaker 1: you've got your yetti in there full of beer, and

441
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 1: you're like, look, you know the space to keep things cold.

442
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:08,879
Speaker 1: There's also and this is definitely the feature set for

443
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 1: for for Ford and for Rivan as well, is using

444
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 1: the vehicle and as essentially a mobile hub for all

445
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,399
Speaker 1: the other electric activities that you may need to do

446
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:20,320
Speaker 1: with work. I mean the fact that the fact that

447
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 1: you can charge. You can run a chop saw, you

448
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 1: can run a micro saw, you could probably run a

449
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:29,200
Speaker 1: table saw if you wanted. You can definitely charge every

450
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 1: other peripheral battery that you've got off bits in the

451
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 1: F one. That's definitely gonna get noticed. I handed that

452
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:37,639
Speaker 1: my family always had one, but we got them as

453
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:41,879
Speaker 1: fleet cars. They were white F one fifties no crew

454
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 1: cab with a with a flat six, and then they

455
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 1: have been making for decades like they were just they

456
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 1: were work cars. And so like when you when you

457
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 1: put this into the work case, it's extra fuel you

458
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 1: don't need to buy. It's all kinds of capabilities that

459
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 1: I think people will find to have at the consumer level,

460
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:01,200
Speaker 1: that kind of g whiz at aspect. I haven't thought

461
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:04,400
Speaker 1: about this at all, that like, this is the first

462
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 1: time it's occurred to me or I realized this that

463
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 1: if you have like this powerful battery and unlike with

464
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 1: an existing car battery, you know, like zo right, you

465
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:14,439
Speaker 1: drained it out just by leaving the lights on for

466
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 1: five minutes or whatever, Like this is like a really

467
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 1: powerful piece of equipment that you're carrying around with you. Yeah,

468
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:22,920
Speaker 1: I mean, like I think I think that that will

469
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 1: be will be interested to see how that kind of

470
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 1: peripheral use cases evolve around this. Like if you look

471
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:34,120
Speaker 1: at like Ribbean's advertising, for instance, has got somebody set

472
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:35,760
Speaker 1: up and set up in the R one T in

473
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:39,480
Speaker 1: the woods at a camping site, but they're running, They're

474
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:43,840
Speaker 1: running like hundreds of feet of L. E. D. Edison bulbs,

475
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:48,480
Speaker 1: you know, basically setting up your Instagram ready camping site,

476
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 1: but without being like, oh, I need to bring a

477
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:52,199
Speaker 1: generator for this, or I'm gonna drain my battery and

478
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:56,280
Speaker 1: doing so. Oh that's cool. Yeah. So, I mean, we've

479
00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:59,200
Speaker 1: been talking a lot about the one fifty, and when

480
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,400
Speaker 1: I think about pick up trucks, I kind of think

481
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:06,280
Speaker 1: about people, you know, I don't know, in the hinterlands

482
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 1: of Texas or something somewhere out in the country, um,

483
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 1: doing country things, And I know that's the stereotype, and

484
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 1: it's probably not really true anymore. In pickup trucks are

485
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:18,879
Speaker 1: very very popular in the cities as well. But this

486
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 1: sort of begs the question of I guess infrastructure, and

487
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:27,600
Speaker 1: my understanding is that charging stations are still an issue

488
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:31,399
Speaker 1: outside of major cities, So I guess the question is

489
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:33,920
Speaker 1: how long is it going to take to build out

490
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 1: that infrastructure and how much does demand for evs actually

491
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 1: depend on that happening. So I haven't I have a

492
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 1: different take on this, which is that actually I think

493
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 1: that the charging infrastructure is largely a bigger issue in

494
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 1: cities than in the suburbs. Where it is an issue

495
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:57,880
Speaker 1: in the countryside is for long distance driving where you

496
00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:00,960
Speaker 1: want to be charging as quickly as possible. The reason

497
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 1: that I don't have any v is that I don't

498
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:05,240
Speaker 1: have a garage. I worked on the street, and I

499
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 1: have yet to sort of figure out exactly how I

500
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 1: would negotiate charging. Now, my neighbors down the street have

501
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 1: two testamas. I have no idea where they charged them,

502
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:16,959
Speaker 1: but obviously they do. And whether they're doing it at

503
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 1: the office, whether they're doing it at at Whole Foods,

504
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 1: or whether they're they're going somewhere else and kind of

505
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 1: finding a charging solution, I'm not really sure yet. I

506
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 1: think what's going to be interesting isn't like, yes, we're

507
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 1: going to need this massive build out of charging networks.

508
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 1: And right now, like globally we have about one point

509
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:40,400
Speaker 1: five million charging connectors worldwide, of which them in China.

510
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 1: By the end of this year, that's probably gonna be

511
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 1: like two point seven million, so it's almost doubling in

512
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:49,240
Speaker 1: total size, and it's going to solve a number of

513
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 1: different potential needs. So one of them is the is

514
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 1: essentially replacing the in inner city gas station, so a

515
00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 1: place that that you would normally go fill up leave,

516
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 1: but now you need to go and spend slighting more time.

517
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:06,520
Speaker 1: The other is in a place like a big box retailer,

518
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 1: where you're you're already going to be spending some time,

519
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 1: and that kind of matches you're the amount of time

520
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:15,479
Speaker 1: you're going to spend. Then there's the third case of like,

521
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 1: well we need to build a network for highway driving.

522
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna drive on from from New York City to

523
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:25,040
Speaker 1: Miami and I want to do it in my EV

524
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 1: Where am I going to charge it on the way?

525
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 1: And then there's the other case, which is, you know,

526
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 1: I have a home and I have a place to park,

527
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 1: and maybe I will use that as my charging solution.

528
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:37,720
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna it's not to play for here.

529
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 1: You know, our homeowners is going to find the need

530
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 1: to charge their car in twenty minutes, probably not. Are

531
00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 1: people on the highway going to be happy to spend

532
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 1: two hours waiting for their vehicle to charge? Also? Probably not?

533
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 1: And so I think what's what's interesting to me is

534
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 1: not just what gets built, but who owns it and

535
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 1: what's the knock on business? And Joe I always think

536
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 1: about this, even like what's the Buckey's future? Yeah for

537
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 1: for for electric vehicles for those of y'all don't know BUCkies.

538
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 1: I don't know, Joe, you can probably tell better, tell

539
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 1: me better than than than I can with buckets. Yeah,

540
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 1: it's the best. You know, they have great bathrooms for

541
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 1: one thing, so I have memories of like the best

542
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 1: place to change your baby's diaper if you're on the

543
00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 1: road is definitely a bucket is. But it's like this

544
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 1: like amazing sort of like Texas institution that has tons

545
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 1: and tons of places to fill up your gas tank,

546
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 1: but also like tons of gifts and barbecue inside and

547
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 1: tons of like dried smoked meats and t shirts to

548
00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 1: try on and cowboy hats and like you just kind

549
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:41,040
Speaker 1: of want to hang out there. And they pay their

550
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:42,960
Speaker 1: staff really well, so they have a very good staff.

551
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:45,960
Speaker 1: It's very pleasant. Like I said, the bathrooms are extremely

552
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 1: clean and so like, uh and I think you know

553
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,720
Speaker 1: our colleague Connor Send and when your opinion wrote like

554
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 1: a thing it is like if all gas stations were

555
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 1: like as enjoyable as Bucky's, like, oh, thirty minutes to

556
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:01,320
Speaker 1: like charge your car, Yeah, I'm cool with that, but

557
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 1: like obviously most gas stations are nearly nice enough that

558
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 1: you would want to spend thirty minutes there. But I

559
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:09,800
Speaker 1: think it's super important for us to consider what this

560
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 1: is like because like you know, there's a time carve

561
00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 1: out two to charging. It's not as long as what

562
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:18,800
Speaker 1: a lot of people think. But it may not be

563
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:20,720
Speaker 1: that dona'nt think. I mean, if you're if you're on

564
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 1: a road trip, you know, if you can say you

565
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:25,720
Speaker 1: had a four hundred mile battery capacity, well, at that

566
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:29,480
Speaker 1: point you're in a battle between battery capacity and latter capacity.

567
00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 1: You've got to stop at some point and when you

568
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 1: and when you do, maybe there's a charging is part

569
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 1: of a sort of nexus of other attractions that take

570
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 1: you to a place. Well you have to have to

571
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 1: eat too, especially if you have kids exactly. And you know,

572
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 1: like it's funny because the pushback I've gotten on this

573
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 1: when I when I sort of point is that as

574
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 1: we were like, you know, I had the road and

575
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:51,720
Speaker 1: I go I was like, do you have children under five?

576
00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 1: Because you can't do that, Like you need to go

577
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 1: somewhere and you know it'll be like it'll be like

578
00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 1: driving perhaps in the early days of the Interstate Ighway,

579
00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 1: in which attractions pop up, you know, you know, is

580
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 1: it is it the mystery spot? You know, is it

581
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:09,240
Speaker 1: walled drug? You know, what kind of thing is it

582
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 1: that people plan their journey around. But I just want

583
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 1: to give some costs here. I'm like, how big this

584
00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:18,280
Speaker 1: in this industry? Is the United States that is going

585
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 1: to eventually have to deal with this. There are nine

586
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:22,800
Speaker 1: dred and sixty thou people working in gas stations in

587
00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 1: the United States. Most of those have a convenience store

588
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 1: related to it. There are a hundred and fifty thousand

589
00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 1: convenience stores of themselves fuel and they some about of

590
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:36,800
Speaker 1: the motor fuel that's purchased in the US. But also

591
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 1: like of that hundred and fifty thous about ninety thousand

592
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:45,520
Speaker 1: of them are single operators. So like there's a huge

593
00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 1: set of questions to be answered here. That's not just

594
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 1: buying like the Buckeyes and the Flying Jay's of the world,

595
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 1: but by tens of thousands of Soul proprietorships. So I

596
00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 1: guess we've been talking about how electric vehicles might change

597
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 1: things like the way we live. This idea of using

598
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 1: them as a center for all your electric activities or

599
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:13,279
Speaker 1: you know, a transportable center for all your electric activities,

600
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:17,279
Speaker 1: and the way they might change traditional car companies garages

601
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:20,520
Speaker 1: and things like that. I wanted to ask, I guess

602
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 1: ah even more macro question, which is, what is the

603
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:31,720
Speaker 1: impact on demand for oil if everyone is suddenly driving

604
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 1: evs and do countries you know nowadays Saudi Arabia, United

605
00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:43,280
Speaker 1: Arab Emirates big oil producers clearly hold some geopolitical sway

606
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:46,360
Speaker 1: because of their oil reserves. And I guess my question

607
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:49,880
Speaker 1: is does a country that has a bunch of lithium

608
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 1: reserves suddenly become the new Saudi Arabia under a scenario

609
00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:57,880
Speaker 1: where everyone is driving evis and there's a need for

610
00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:00,759
Speaker 1: a lot of batteries. So this this is one that's

611
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 1: definitely worth parsing out to sort of figure out what's

612
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 1: the same and what's different in the resource inputs for

613
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 1: these cards. So yes, definitely there's there's there's potential on

614
00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 1: the lithium side, on the nickel side for some short

615
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:16,840
Speaker 1: term shortages, and you can definitely see that in in pricing.

616
00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:19,640
Speaker 1: The price of lithium really went went really skyrocket in

617
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:22,920
Speaker 1: the last year by a factor of about five over

618
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 1: the course of the year. We do expect that to

619
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:28,719
Speaker 1: to sort of moderate over time as more capacity comes online,

620
00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:32,799
Speaker 1: So you know, it definitely within that domain kind of

621
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:36,640
Speaker 1: shifts the locusts of control to like a few places

622
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:39,480
Speaker 1: at at a period of time. The one thing you

623
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:44,440
Speaker 1: can say about materials in battery, the battery metals, is

624
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 1: that they can be and will be recycled. We hear

625
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 1: oftentimes people saying that nobody recycles them. I'm like, well,

626
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:52,759
Speaker 1: they're still on the road, like nobody recycles them in

627
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:55,240
Speaker 1: the way that they're not recycling a lot of iPhone

628
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 1: thirteen max is Uh, it's just not you know, they're

629
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 1: not rolled off the market yet. And also, um, I

630
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:06,319
Speaker 1: think that we will see a pretty sophisticated hipparatus to

631
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:08,279
Speaker 1: decide what to do with batteries at the end of

632
00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:10,800
Speaker 1: their life. But to take it back to the oil producers,

633
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:13,640
Speaker 1: the interesting thing here is that is that we think

634
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:15,800
Speaker 1: you should think about this among like a marginal cost curve.

635
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 1: If if demand goes down, then you start chopping off

636
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:21,400
Speaker 1: with the margin, which is always the highest price and

637
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 1: oftentimes sometimes the smallest units of supply that are in

638
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:28,279
Speaker 1: the market. And you know, my colleagues were expected by

639
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:30,720
Speaker 1: the middle of the center, we've got tens of millions

640
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 1: of barrels a day less demand for road transport fuel.

641
00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:37,640
Speaker 1: Now that doesn't mean that it crams all oil demand

642
00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 1: down and then it starts to moves negative, but it's

643
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:44,880
Speaker 1: definitely entirely possible. But when that happens, what it's probably

644
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:48,400
Speaker 1: going to do is follow very kind of classical economics,

645
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 1: which is, users with the most flexible will supply and

646
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:56,239
Speaker 1: with the lowest price are probably the ones that will

647
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 1: be pumping the remaining barrels of oil over time. And

648
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:04,360
Speaker 1: so what it probably does is but the the powerful

649
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:08,200
Speaker 1: position back in the hands of big producers lots of

650
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:11,920
Speaker 1: capacity and with low costs, and those are the producers

651
00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 1: in the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, it's Russia. Um,

652
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:20,240
Speaker 1: you know, definitely, the the impetus there is that these

653
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:24,840
Speaker 1: companies will or these countries rather will almost certainly be

654
00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 1: pumping the very nast barrels of oil that come out

655
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 1: of the ground because they're the ones able to withstand

656
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:34,320
Speaker 1: this change. On the margin. The bigger challenges for marginal

657
00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:38,400
Speaker 1: small producers, for producers that have a very inherent fundamental

658
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:42,959
Speaker 1: cost and and things like that. So you know, it's

659
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:46,320
Speaker 1: it may actually bed the strength of some of today's

660
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:49,960
Speaker 1: biggest oil producers that's really interesting and I hadn't I

661
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 1: hadn't thought about that at all. I don't only talk

662
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:55,719
Speaker 1: more about some of these like deep structural I don't

663
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:58,880
Speaker 1: want to say oppositional, but maybe oppositional like forces you

664
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 1: mentioned like sell thing is going to happen with all

665
00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:05,440
Speaker 1: of the gas stations and how many people uh that

666
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:08,600
Speaker 1: employees and all of the convenience stories associated, like there's

667
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 1: gonna be that's going to be turned up somehow. We

668
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:13,520
Speaker 1: don't know. Maybe they'll all be like BUCkies, or I'm

669
00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:17,279
Speaker 1: excited about roadside attractions like random like dinosaur museums in

670
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:19,840
Speaker 1: the middle of nowhere. I want to go back to

671
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:23,400
Speaker 1: something we talked about the beginning, the labor intensity of

672
00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:28,399
Speaker 1: e V manufacturer and obviously mentioned you know they're they're

673
00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:31,400
Speaker 1: simpler if you're moving parts in theory, if you're moving

674
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 1: parts and means if your workers on a shop floor.

675
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 1: What can we look at when we look at the

676
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 1: labor intensity of a pure EV player like a Tesla

677
00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:43,359
Speaker 1: versus a GM or a Ford and what does that

678
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:46,360
Speaker 1: tell what are the things that are going to arise

679
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:50,840
Speaker 1: for the legacy automakers even if they have popular products.

680
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:53,400
Speaker 1: You can solve that part in terms of the stresses

681
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:56,399
Speaker 1: on their own workforce. So I think I think where

682
00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:59,960
Speaker 1: the stress actually in the first instance, is going to

683
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:03,560
Speaker 1: come in in the in the tier one and lower

684
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:09,120
Speaker 1: supplier network. You know, Toyota has Toyota City, and it's

685
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:14,400
Speaker 1: made up of hundreds of suppliers that make very specific things.

686
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 1: They make a specific kind of seal, they make specific

687
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:22,719
Speaker 1: types of valve, they make specific types of solarnoids or connectors,

688
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:26,480
Speaker 1: and all the different things that flow into into making

689
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:33,640
Speaker 1: and automobile engine have got their own supply chain of

690
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:37,560
Speaker 1: small companies that produce very precisely made and very precisely

691
00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 1: planned products. It's the same in Germany obviously, where you

692
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:44,800
Speaker 1: have similar value chains. But even more than that is

693
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:48,520
Speaker 1: like there's another layer back from that, which is there's

694
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:53,239
Speaker 1: the capital, the capital equipment manufacturer. So the companies that

695
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:56,640
Speaker 1: make the tools that make those valves that go into

696
00:39:56,800 --> 00:40:01,400
Speaker 1: a BMW engine or that go into a Toyota power train,

697
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:05,640
Speaker 1: We're gonna start to see it resonate resonate out further there.

698
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:08,280
Speaker 1: I mean, like in the big auto businesses are assembly

699
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 1: businesses for the most part, there are you know, there

700
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:13,000
Speaker 1: are still some companies that do full integration of things

701
00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 1: that they're making, but they're you know, the biggest part

702
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 1: of the role in a plant is integration of pieces

703
00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:20,960
Speaker 1: that have come from these very diverse supply chains. And

704
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 1: it's the change in the supply chain. It's going to

705
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 1: be a big of a deal. I mean, if you

706
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:26,040
Speaker 1: think that, like, if you think you know this is

707
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:29,239
Speaker 1: this is not exactly precise, but basically every part, one

708
00:40:29,239 --> 00:40:31,920
Speaker 1: way or another, is probably a company, and every company

709
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 1: itself buys things from other companies that go into it.

710
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:38,359
Speaker 1: It's going to be this huge compression along the way. Now,

711
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:41,840
Speaker 1: if I'm an automaker, I may not necessarily find this

712
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:45,480
Speaker 1: all that problematic. Having a more consolidated network of suppliers

713
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:48,520
Speaker 1: maybe one that I can plan longer term with, maybe

714
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:52,279
Speaker 1: maybe advantageous. But politically it puts it puts a kind

715
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:56,320
Speaker 1: of schism within what we think of as the auto industry.

716
00:40:56,680 --> 00:40:59,200
Speaker 1: You know, like tires and brakes may still be aligned

717
00:40:59,200 --> 00:41:02,000
Speaker 1: with the d s UH and infect tire manufacturers make

718
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:04,440
Speaker 1: a whole new set of products just for evs, but

719
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:09,840
Speaker 1: auto assembly and making of engines and making of finenges

720
00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:12,920
Speaker 1: and valves and solennoids and fittings is probably going to

721
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:14,479
Speaker 1: have a little bit of a crack up in time.

722
00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 1: So just on this note, I mean, we're basically talking

723
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:22,799
Speaker 1: about everyone who currently has a traditional car going out

724
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:26,000
Speaker 1: and buying a new car, which would obviously entail a

725
00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 1: lot of spending um and the possibility of making a

726
00:41:29,200 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 1: lot of money for companies that produce e v s.

727
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:36,120
Speaker 1: I guess my question is, to what degree does this

728
00:41:36,239 --> 00:41:41,480
Speaker 1: new industry spark a sort of follow on boom in

729
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:45,000
Speaker 1: manufacturing and the parts that you are just discussing, Like,

730
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:48,840
Speaker 1: is there a possibility that in places like the US,

731
00:41:49,080 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 1: as big car makers start to switch to e v s,

732
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:56,759
Speaker 1: that we do start seeing I guess, more battery making

733
00:41:57,040 --> 00:42:01,560
Speaker 1: or you know, tire making or specific EV parts being

734
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 1: made in the US, and that industry expanding. I mean,

735
00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:07,880
Speaker 1: it's it's possible. It's possiblely we see these new industries

736
00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:11,600
Speaker 1: popping up and expanding. But but another another possibility is that,

737
00:42:12,120 --> 00:42:15,880
Speaker 1: you know, so much of this essentially becomes part of

738
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 1: the semiconductor value chain, which, as we know right now,

739
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:23,200
Speaker 1: is pretty complicated. You know, my colleagues estimate that you know,

740
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:26,480
Speaker 1: the semichonetric bill of vehicle building materials as a percentage

741
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:29,640
Speaker 1: of the vehicle building build materials is like about four

742
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:35,200
Speaker 1: is probably gonna be about So if you think about replacing,

743
00:42:35,719 --> 00:42:39,920
Speaker 1: you think about replacing all these little pieces that manage

744
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 1: the flow of liquids, gases, than the person of heat

745
00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 1: and then the lubrication of moving parts with things that

746
00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:52,920
Speaker 1: maintain flow of electrons and do heat heat control uh

747
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:56,719
Speaker 1: and do system maintenance within a battery. Those are those

748
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:59,839
Speaker 1: are much more tronic than they are panical. And so

749
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:01,919
Speaker 1: you know, it's going to be really interesting to see

750
00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:04,920
Speaker 1: where that doesn't create new new value chains popping up.

751
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:08,279
Speaker 1: I mean, there's an intriguing kind of thing happening here

752
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:13,719
Speaker 1: for Ferrari, wherein the new CEO of Ferrari, Benedetoa, has

753
00:43:13,760 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 1: come from ST micro Electronics, which is a major Apple supplier,

754
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:21,399
Speaker 1: and he in turn brought with him two executives from

755
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:24,320
Speaker 1: ST Microelectronics that have come over. And this is a

756
00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:28,600
Speaker 1: sort of like very in our face kind of example

757
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:31,960
Speaker 1: of maybe the new kind of core I p you

758
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:35,400
Speaker 1: need to fold into thinking about electrification and needing this

759
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:38,120
Speaker 1: to say, I think Ferrari has quite a bit of

760
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 1: pride in the in the engines that it makes. I mean,

761
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:45,960
Speaker 1: you know, this sort of idea that all of these

762
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:50,000
Speaker 1: industries are tech semiconductors, etcetera. Bleeding over into each other.

763
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:53,080
Speaker 1: I remember a few years ago there was a lot

764
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:55,720
Speaker 1: of hype about the silicon the fang is the silicon

765
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:59,719
Speaker 1: value giant making some play an auto and Google head

766
00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:02,000
Speaker 1: a thing. I think they're a little bit more focused

767
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 1: on the autonomous side, and every once in a while

768
00:44:05,080 --> 00:44:07,040
Speaker 1: there's a story about maybe there'll be an Apple car

769
00:44:07,600 --> 00:44:10,960
Speaker 1: one day. Are they playing in this space? Is it

770
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:14,000
Speaker 1: sort of like, actually, maybe there is not some connection

771
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 1: between the search engine and a car, Like where are

772
00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:19,560
Speaker 1: they on all this? I mean, it's like like the

773
00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:22,719
Speaker 1: question I guess is what the electrifications that have moved

774
00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:25,960
Speaker 1: the abstraction layer of cars in a way that a

775
00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 1: tech company to get in and play and we can

776
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:31,279
Speaker 1: kind of we can kind of start carving this off,

777
00:44:31,360 --> 00:44:34,759
Speaker 1: like do they want a business of stamping metal? Probably not?

778
00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:37,719
Speaker 1: Probably not? Are they Are they in the business of

779
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:42,680
Speaker 1: doing an operating system? Me? But do you want to

780
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 1: be in the bluing an entertainment system as well as that?

781
00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:48,200
Speaker 1: And also what's the value capture that you get and

782
00:44:48,239 --> 00:44:51,720
Speaker 1: what's the model? Are you able to create a recur

783
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:55,480
Speaker 1: and annual recurring revenue relationship within the car that has

784
00:44:55,560 --> 00:44:58,880
Speaker 1: software like margins or are you going to be doing

785
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 1: auto industry park it for making physical stuff. I mean,

786
00:45:03,000 --> 00:45:05,000
Speaker 1: it will be very interesting to see if Apple brings

787
00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:07,560
Speaker 1: a product market is and what it what it views

788
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:13,200
Speaker 1: as the relationship. But also like where does the technology

789
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:16,680
Speaker 1: point of control flow in a way that is important

790
00:45:16,719 --> 00:45:21,319
Speaker 1: for a for a technology company to get into this.

791
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:23,960
Speaker 1: I mean, like in in a sense, Apple and Google

792
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:26,720
Speaker 1: are in all of our cars every time we plug

793
00:45:26,719 --> 00:45:30,799
Speaker 1: in our phone and use that for mapping and for music. Um,

794
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:32,680
Speaker 1: you know they have they have actually they've taken away

795
00:45:32,680 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 1: market share from like in that market share, but kind

796
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:39,800
Speaker 1: of presence and brand presence from companies own self developed

797
00:45:39,880 --> 00:45:45,440
Speaker 1: entertainment systems or from navigation systems as well. I really

798
00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:48,439
Speaker 1: hope we don't have to start paying monthly subscriptions for

799
00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:53,160
Speaker 1: like our operating system in an evy or the entertainment system.

800
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:55,239
Speaker 1: I know. But but Tracy, the way to think about

801
00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:56,959
Speaker 1: it is that like I I as as I mentioned

802
00:45:56,960 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 1: at the beginning, I had to opt out of the

803
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:02,880
Speaker 1: equivalent service agreement when I got my new car. So

804
00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:05,080
Speaker 1: auto companies are will definitely do their best to try

805
00:46:05,120 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 1: to steer you in that direction to to a services agreement.

806
00:46:08,600 --> 00:46:11,440
Speaker 1: I do think that companies will try to do that

807
00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 1: and want to do it. The question is, you know it,

808
00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:17,480
Speaker 1: does an automaker know everything about me just because I

809
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:19,680
Speaker 1: I go get the tires rotated once a quarter, not

810
00:46:19,800 --> 00:46:22,520
Speaker 1: exactly in the same way that the technology company might.

811
00:46:23,800 --> 00:46:27,400
Speaker 1: You mentioned, Okay, of course, like the semiconductor intensity or

812
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:31,040
Speaker 1: the chip intensity of these new cars is going to

813
00:46:31,080 --> 00:46:33,600
Speaker 1: be much higher than they were. We know that there's

814
00:46:33,600 --> 00:46:35,960
Speaker 1: a shortage of chips for the legacy cars, but a

815
00:46:36,000 --> 00:46:37,799
Speaker 1: lot of them are at the low end. So it's

816
00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:40,160
Speaker 1: kind of the chips are at the low end. It's

817
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:43,040
Speaker 1: kind of a different story than the longer term. But

818
00:46:43,600 --> 00:46:45,680
Speaker 1: you know, like I'm also wondering about the sort of

819
00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:48,880
Speaker 1: like the mechanics community, they used car parts community, the

820
00:46:48,920 --> 00:46:51,040
Speaker 1: O'Reilly's of the world, the pet boys of the world,

821
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:53,359
Speaker 1: the auto zones of the world. This has been an

822
00:46:53,360 --> 00:46:55,359
Speaker 1: issue for a while that like cars are getting more

823
00:46:55,400 --> 00:46:57,040
Speaker 1: like computers, and you hear it's like, oh, you can't

824
00:46:57,040 --> 00:46:59,560
Speaker 1: repair your own car anymore, and you know, it's just

825
00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:02,120
Speaker 1: it's not the same. So this is not strictly an

826
00:47:02,120 --> 00:47:04,399
Speaker 1: evy thing, like this sort of like phenomenon has been

827
00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:07,359
Speaker 1: going on for a while and there's been anxiety about that.

828
00:47:07,760 --> 00:47:11,279
Speaker 1: Is that going to accelerate the stress or are is

829
00:47:11,400 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 1: that whole industry going to find a way to adapt

830
00:47:14,920 --> 00:47:17,399
Speaker 1: as it has for some time, even as our car

831
00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:20,080
Speaker 1: has already become more like computers. I mean, it's it's

832
00:47:20,080 --> 00:47:22,719
Speaker 1: a really important thing. I mean, what's the pet Boys

833
00:47:22,760 --> 00:47:25,759
Speaker 1: or NAPA Auto parts business when there are hundreds of

834
00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:28,920
Speaker 1: fewer moving parts in in the part of the vehicle

835
00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 1: that wears out the quickest, that needs the most maintenance,

836
00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:33,319
Speaker 1: and there are for the record, there are just under

837
00:47:33,320 --> 00:47:36,160
Speaker 1: two million people who work in dealerships and parts the US. Like,

838
00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:39,000
Speaker 1: it's a it's a pretty big business. And it's recovered

839
00:47:39,040 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 1: almost completely from UH from diving during the pandemic. So

840
00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:46,040
Speaker 1: that's a good question, like would you would you go

841
00:47:46,120 --> 00:47:49,000
Speaker 1: to pet boys for what? Like what's the job to

842
00:47:49,040 --> 00:47:51,680
Speaker 1: be done? Are you going to go there too? Jail

843
00:47:51,719 --> 00:47:56,400
Speaker 1: break your vehicle software? Well, you know TESTNA will do

844
00:47:56,440 --> 00:47:58,800
Speaker 1: that doesn't obviously jail break it, but TESTA will allow

845
00:47:58,840 --> 00:48:01,000
Speaker 1: you to do over the ear up dates that happen

846
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:05,080
Speaker 1: automatically and improved performance or safety and other automakers are

847
00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:07,600
Speaker 1: moving in the same direction, so it is a big

848
00:48:07,680 --> 00:48:10,760
Speaker 1: challenge for them as far as repairs, I mean, body

849
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:12,960
Speaker 1: work and things like that are the same, but you've

850
00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 1: got new things to be aware of. I remember Bores

851
00:48:16,640 --> 00:48:20,240
Speaker 1: has to do training for its mechanics around the battery

852
00:48:20,239 --> 00:48:22,840
Speaker 1: pack of the new tyicon because you know, you could

853
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:26,000
Speaker 1: you could burn yourself by touching hot metal in a

854
00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:29,720
Speaker 1: in an eternal muntion engine, but you can absolutely electrocute yourself.

855
00:48:30,320 --> 00:48:33,200
Speaker 1: So you know, like like, where's the specialization within that,

856
00:48:33,239 --> 00:48:35,120
Speaker 1: And it's just not a big enough market probably yet

857
00:48:35,120 --> 00:48:37,200
Speaker 1: for that to have emerged. Most of that still flows

858
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 1: back through dealers. Not only that, like these places occupy

859
00:48:40,560 --> 00:48:42,359
Speaker 1: a lot of physical real estate, but what happens to

860
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:45,600
Speaker 1: the what happens to the bid the big box parts

861
00:48:45,640 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 1: store and the people who work there. There There there's a

862
00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:50,120
Speaker 1: lot of things that are in play here that we're

863
00:48:50,160 --> 00:48:52,840
Speaker 1: I think only just beginning to kind of think ahead about,

864
00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:55,160
Speaker 1: you know, and I imagine that there are strokes of

865
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:58,080
Speaker 1: all of these companies that are starting to ask these questions.

866
00:48:58,120 --> 00:49:01,640
Speaker 1: But you know, we're we're not there volumetrically for this

867
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:05,080
Speaker 1: to really make a difference, but it will that I

868
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:07,400
Speaker 1: mean that was amazing. I do feel like, you know,

869
00:49:07,520 --> 00:49:10,640
Speaker 1: in my mind, there's like ten more hours at least

870
00:49:10,680 --> 00:49:14,839
Speaker 1: of episodes. There's there's, there's, there's so much more. Each

871
00:49:14,880 --> 00:49:18,640
Speaker 1: one of these things itself is like a multi trillion

872
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:22,399
Speaker 1: dollar inquiry with tons of open questions. You know, what's

873
00:49:22,440 --> 00:49:25,279
Speaker 1: the brand and loyalty to Brandon nameplay, the way the

874
00:49:25,320 --> 00:49:28,279
Speaker 1: car moves, the business model, all kinds of stuff is

875
00:49:28,280 --> 00:49:30,399
Speaker 1: gonna be going to be in play, and it's gonna

876
00:49:30,440 --> 00:49:32,919
Speaker 1: be really interesting. I mean, I think that we'll see

877
00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:35,640
Speaker 1: some incumbents that make it. They're all all even Toyota

878
00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:36,920
Speaker 1: has now sort of come around to the fact that

879
00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:38,960
Speaker 1: they probably need to do this. But there is a

880
00:49:38,960 --> 00:49:41,759
Speaker 1: place for new entrance, and you know it's gonna be

881
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:43,759
Speaker 1: It's gonna be interesting to see and I do look

882
00:49:43,800 --> 00:49:46,000
Speaker 1: forward to going to Buckey's sometimes. Yeah, you gotta go.

883
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:49,000
Speaker 1: This was great. I think, you know, we really need

884
00:49:49,040 --> 00:49:50,440
Speaker 1: to do a lot more and this was like a

885
00:49:50,560 --> 00:49:53,399
Speaker 1: great starting point for what I think will be many

886
00:49:53,440 --> 00:49:56,719
Speaker 1: odd lots on related topics. So Net, thank you so

887
00:49:56,800 --> 00:49:59,200
Speaker 1: much for coming on the show. Thanks Joe, Thanks Tracy,

888
00:49:59,280 --> 00:50:18,000
Speaker 1: Thanks so much. Tracy. We gotta do a battery episode, obviously,

889
00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:23,920
Speaker 1: like the battery supply chain, right, yeah, lithium oil, lithium,

890
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:27,239
Speaker 1: what else um, the future of gas stations, that's its own,

891
00:50:27,280 --> 00:50:30,920
Speaker 1: like future of I guess car repair shops, future of

892
00:50:30,920 --> 00:50:36,600
Speaker 1: car repair shops um, probably like unions and auto maker labor,

893
00:50:36,760 --> 00:50:39,759
Speaker 1: either at the O E. M's or the part suppliers,

894
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:43,839
Speaker 1: and how they're going to navigate that. So many I'm

895
00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:47,440
Speaker 1: so excited. I feel like that we have what future

896
00:50:47,560 --> 00:50:51,520
Speaker 1: of roadside attractions? Yes, be interested in the future of

897
00:50:51,560 --> 00:50:53,960
Speaker 1: like the American road Trip is, like, it's what I'm

898
00:50:54,040 --> 00:50:58,359
Speaker 1: super accepted. So I do feel like this is going

899
00:50:58,400 --> 00:51:02,200
Speaker 1: to end up being any Conductor series reducs, where every

900
00:51:02,200 --> 00:51:04,839
Speaker 1: time we record an episode on e VS it just

901
00:51:04,920 --> 00:51:07,640
Speaker 1: leads to five more episodes. It already feels like that.

902
00:51:08,239 --> 00:51:13,719
Speaker 1: But on the other hand, the notion of everyone in

903
00:51:13,760 --> 00:51:16,040
Speaker 1: the world, you know, maybe not immediately, but over the

904
00:51:16,080 --> 00:51:19,400
Speaker 1: course of a few decades switching to a new type

905
00:51:19,400 --> 00:51:22,719
Speaker 1: of car, that is a really compelling argument that it's

906
00:51:22,800 --> 00:51:27,239
Speaker 1: going to have to have some knock on effects. Oh yeah,

907
00:51:27,320 --> 00:51:29,719
Speaker 1: and you know, just the sheer number of like a

908
00:51:30,239 --> 00:51:32,880
Speaker 1: employees in this space. You know, we're talking like a

909
00:51:33,080 --> 00:51:36,000
Speaker 1: million here, are a million there? Like in the US. Like,

910
00:51:36,160 --> 00:51:39,560
Speaker 1: obviously cars are a huge deal in the US specifically,

911
00:51:40,160 --> 00:51:44,320
Speaker 1: but there's so many like millions of millions of different

912
00:51:44,800 --> 00:51:48,360
Speaker 1: industry not millions of different industries, numerous different industries with

913
00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:51,520
Speaker 1: millions of employees that are going to be affected by this.

914
00:51:51,960 --> 00:51:53,879
Speaker 1: And look, there's gonna be it's also going to create

915
00:51:53,960 --> 00:51:56,120
Speaker 1: tons of new jobs in ways that we don't expect,

916
00:51:56,840 --> 00:52:00,320
Speaker 1: but yeah, it's going to. I think like that's thesis

917
00:52:00,040 --> 00:52:02,239
Speaker 1: is that regardless of who wins, this is going to

918
00:52:02,320 --> 00:52:05,000
Speaker 1: change so many different aspects of the economy and life.

919
00:52:05,520 --> 00:52:07,759
Speaker 1: Is one that I find to be quite convincing and

920
00:52:07,840 --> 00:52:11,040
Speaker 1: quite compelling, right, And I mean, if you think about

921
00:52:11,080 --> 00:52:15,480
Speaker 1: cars specifically in America, they're they're so entwined with society

922
00:52:15,600 --> 00:52:19,879
Speaker 1: and culture, the way cities and suburbs are planned and

923
00:52:20,000 --> 00:52:24,759
Speaker 1: actually work. It feels like once you start changing the

924
00:52:24,800 --> 00:52:29,040
Speaker 1: actual thing that drives that pun um, once you start

925
00:52:29,120 --> 00:52:33,480
Speaker 1: changing actual cars, it just it feels like it has

926
00:52:33,520 --> 00:52:36,879
Speaker 1: the potential to impact all of society and the way

927
00:52:36,960 --> 00:52:38,840
Speaker 1: we live. And I think that made a really compelling

928
00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:41,480
Speaker 1: argument for that. You know, I was like kind of

929
00:52:41,520 --> 00:52:44,719
Speaker 1: like wondering, it's like, are people going to, like, like

930
00:52:44,760 --> 00:52:47,160
Speaker 1: what is the cultural pushback going to be when someone

931
00:52:47,200 --> 00:52:50,439
Speaker 1: shows up at a job site or a football game

932
00:52:50,480 --> 00:52:53,280
Speaker 1: with the electric fifty. But I'd like that so compelling.

933
00:52:53,360 --> 00:52:55,920
Speaker 1: It's like just like run all the machines and all

934
00:52:55,960 --> 00:52:57,799
Speaker 1: the saws and all the equipment right from the car,

935
00:52:58,480 --> 00:53:01,920
Speaker 1: like running awesome, like sort of like tailgate operation with

936
00:53:01,920 --> 00:53:04,440
Speaker 1: like a working refrigerator and a stone and all that

937
00:53:04,600 --> 00:53:06,720
Speaker 1: right for the car. Like that's awesome. People are gonna

938
00:53:06,760 --> 00:53:09,239
Speaker 1: love that. So I'm like totally sold. Yeah, you'd be

939
00:53:09,280 --> 00:53:12,319
Speaker 1: the cool guy, like with the best pregame, right, a

940
00:53:12,400 --> 00:53:15,520
Speaker 1: great sound system, probably a TV, like a huge TV

941
00:53:15,719 --> 00:53:17,799
Speaker 1: or screen that you could set up. It's it's it

942
00:53:17,880 --> 00:53:21,200
Speaker 1: sounds awesome. So I'm super excited about seeing them all

943
00:53:21,239 --> 00:53:24,160
Speaker 1: over the place. Now Yeah, all right, well it looks

944
00:53:24,200 --> 00:53:26,399
Speaker 1: like we have our work cut out for us. But

945
00:53:26,520 --> 00:53:29,000
Speaker 1: for now, shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there.

946
00:53:29,239 --> 00:53:32,120
Speaker 1: This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast.

947
00:53:32,160 --> 00:53:34,719
Speaker 1: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on Twitter at

948
00:53:34,800 --> 00:53:37,560
Speaker 1: Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe wi Isn't Though. You could

949
00:53:37,600 --> 00:53:40,920
Speaker 1: follow me on Twitter at the Stalwart. Follow our guest

950
00:53:41,080 --> 00:53:44,879
Speaker 1: Net Bullard on Twitter. He's at nat Bullard. Follow our

951
00:53:44,960 --> 00:53:49,040
Speaker 1: producer Laura Carlson Laura M. Carlson followed the Bloomberg head

952
00:53:49,080 --> 00:53:52,919
Speaker 1: of podcast, Francesca Levi at Francesca Today and check out

953
00:53:52,920 --> 00:53:56,799
Speaker 1: all of our podcasts at Bloomberg under the handle AD Podcasts.

954
00:53:57,160 --> 00:54:01,880
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to