1 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:18,360 Speaker 1: All right, welcome in Late Kick is Live. It is 2 00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 1: Tuesday night, October twenty seventh, the Year of Our Lord, 3 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 1: twenty twenty. We are jam packed as always, and we 4 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:26,120 Speaker 1: moved the laptop over a little bit. We have got 5 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 1: full predictions. Tuesday night is prediction night here, so we 6 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:31,479 Speaker 1: are going to do in depth previews and predictions for 7 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:34,920 Speaker 1: Ohio State, Penn State. We're gonna do LSU Auburn. Colin 8 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:37,800 Speaker 1: pointed something out to me that I probably wouldn't have 9 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 1: realized otherwise. LSU and Auburn does not feature a ranked team, 10 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 1: and they ranked twenty five of them, so neither one 11 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:46,160 Speaker 1: of those teams are ranked right now. And yet there's 12 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 1: just so much intrigue there as someone's going to hit 13 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 1: this hit this little spurt probably in the second half spurt. 14 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: It was a word, and so we'll see who that's 15 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 1: going to be. Tiger on Tiger there. Also, we had 16 00:00:57,360 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 1: a really good Late Kick Extra podcast that we released 17 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:01,840 Speaker 1: this more a lot of stuff that is football and 18 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 1: non football related there. It's all Q and A. So 19 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:06,320 Speaker 1: if you don't listen to that, we don't put that 20 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:08,880 Speaker 1: on the YouTube channel, so you need to go find that. 21 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:11,480 Speaker 1: Listen to that. It's really fun. It's more of a 22 00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:13,720 Speaker 1: lean back. You know, a lot of you drive and 23 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:15,840 Speaker 1: listen to it, a lot of you kind of sneak 24 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 1: listen to it at work, which is quite frankly, what 25 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 1: we make it for. So thank you for that. And 26 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:22,600 Speaker 1: subscribe to the twenty four seven Sports YouTube channel if 27 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:25,600 Speaker 1: you haven't already do like my buddy Ethan Canty right 28 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:29,440 Speaker 1: here in Tennessee, he subscribed, So follow in Ethan's footsteps 29 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 1: and subscribe. As I said, we've got game previews tonight. Also, 30 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 1: Brandon Marcelo had a really good feature. It was SEC 31 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:39,559 Speaker 1: wide earlier today and it was kind of in line 32 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:41,399 Speaker 1: with something we did in the preseason. Remember when we 33 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 1: did our season predictions for various teams, not just in 34 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,840 Speaker 1: the SEC. We did best, worst, most likely records. Well, 35 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:50,280 Speaker 1: Brandon kind of updated his own opinion on that today. 36 00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:53,040 Speaker 1: What's the remaining best case record for a lot of 37 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 1: SEC teams? What is the worst case record? So the 38 00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 1: trap door, what's the ceiling? What's the trap door if 39 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 1: it completely falls out from to your feet? So we're 40 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 1: going to kind of go in line with that. I 41 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 1: differ with him on a couple, but I'm largely in 42 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:07,280 Speaker 1: line with him, and we'll do some teams in the 43 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 1: East and the West before we end the show tonight. 44 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 1: So also shout out to several of you. I've put 45 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:14,920 Speaker 1: out the call to action on the podcast and on 46 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 1: the show over the past couple of weeks, and I'm 47 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:19,840 Speaker 1: doing a few more shows, and I do this periodically. 48 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 1: As I've said, a lot of you who have reached 49 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 1: out in the summertime, and I kind of got a 50 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:27,920 Speaker 1: backlog of folks who said, Hey, sports media, I'm interested. 51 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:30,800 Speaker 1: How do I get in? What advice would you give? 52 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 1: Can you look at some of my work? I got 53 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:36,280 Speaker 1: a lot of questions, could you answer them? Well, this 54 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 1: is the time I set aside for that, not the show. 55 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 1: But I've been doing one on one zoom sessions. I've 56 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 1: done I don't know how many countless amounts of zoom 57 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:47,799 Speaker 1: sessions this week. Really fun. We've got an ultra talented 58 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:51,280 Speaker 1: audience and a lot of you probably feel kind of 59 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 1: like I did once upon a time. You feel like 60 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 1: you kind of have the ability, you just got to 61 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 1: find a door to open somewhere. So hey, I'm willing 62 00:02:59,160 --> 00:03:01,000 Speaker 1: to help you out reach out to me if you 63 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 1: haven't already. I know some of you are out there, 64 00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:05,360 Speaker 1: probably on the fence. Just reach out joshpat seven zero 65 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 1: six at gmail dot com and follow me on Twitter 66 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:10,360 Speaker 1: and you can DM me there at Late Kickjosh. We 67 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 1: also have a best bet that we're gonna add before 68 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:13,840 Speaker 1: the end of the show tonight. So that's enough talking. 69 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,639 Speaker 1: Let's get into this show. We're going to start it 70 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 1: right off with our well one of our first big 71 00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 1: ten game previews of the year, Ohio State a twelve 72 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:26,480 Speaker 1: point favorite as we sit here now on the road 73 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 1: at Penn State. This is the seven thirty Eastern time 74 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 1: ABC game Saturday Night. A brief reminder about how we 75 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 1: handle games with double digit point spreads. A lot of you, 76 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:40,120 Speaker 1: this is just beating a dead horse. But inevitably someone 77 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 1: comes to the show for the first time and they 78 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 1: hear me talk an inordinate amount about the underdog, and 79 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 1: they say, why don't you talk so much about the 80 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 1: underdog and then end up picking the favorite like we 81 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 1: do most of the time. And this is why we 82 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:55,000 Speaker 1: don't think that there is really a whole lot of 83 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 1: skill involved in looking at a twelve point favorite or 84 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 1: a twenty point favorite and saying I think they're going 85 00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 1: to win. That's my bold call for the weekend. Well, 86 00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 1: of course you do, moron, They're favored by twelve points, 87 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 1: so we don't do it that way. We don't want 88 00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: to be morons. What we want to do is ask 89 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 1: ourselves two questions. First question, could the upset possibly happen? 90 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 1: If our answer is yes, which it is here, Penn 91 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 1: State could be Ohio State. That's not a prediction, that's 92 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 1: just a statement. The second question is how would it happen? 93 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 1: So we kind of try and paint the path and 94 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:26,160 Speaker 1: this would have to go right, that would have to 95 00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:27,839 Speaker 1: go right. So we'll do a little bit of both. 96 00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:30,240 Speaker 1: We'll kind of do a blended preview and path to 97 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 1: the upset here. I don't know if you guys saw 98 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 1: the news today. A lot of you Penn State fans 99 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:37,440 Speaker 1: and Ohio State fans probably did. But remember we were 100 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:41,080 Speaker 1: talking last week about Journey Brown running back for Penn State, 101 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:42,920 Speaker 1: being out for the season, and we thought, Okay, they're 102 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 1: still going to be okay though, because they got really 103 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:48,240 Speaker 1: good depth at that position. Well that was really spearheaded 104 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 1: by the fact that they were going to have Noah 105 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 1: Kane there not anymore. He's out for the year. Now too. 106 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 1: So over the span of a couple of weeks, we 107 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:55,680 Speaker 1: found out that Penn State's going to be without their 108 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 1: top two options at tailback. Now, believe it or not, 109 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 1: they still have pretty good depth there, several former four 110 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:05,839 Speaker 1: star guys as options. They have no experience, and the 111 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:09,560 Speaker 1: guy last week that was the leading rusher was not 112 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,160 Speaker 1: Noah Kam and it was not Journey Brown. It was 113 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:14,919 Speaker 1: Shan Clifford. Seven carries one hundred and nineteen yards. So 114 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:18,480 Speaker 1: no starting experience at running back certainly not an ideal situation, 115 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:22,240 Speaker 1: but it's also not a dire straits situation. There. So 116 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:24,719 Speaker 1: a couple of things I think I know as I 117 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 1: was sort of trying to think this one through on 118 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 1: my drive over here early. I do not believe I 119 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 1: mentioned the Shon Clifford rushing statistics from last week. Penn State, 120 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:36,840 Speaker 1: like I said, they can beat Ohio State. I certainly 121 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 1: do not see a path where James Franklin is sitting 122 00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:42,919 Speaker 1: at the postgame news conference and he's talking about the 123 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:46,040 Speaker 1: fact that Sean Clifford just beat Ohio State with his legs. 124 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 1: I'm not laughing away the idea that he's a threat 125 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:52,479 Speaker 1: with his legs. I am laughing away the notion that 126 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 1: he's about to beat Ohio State. Ohio State's defensively, he's 127 00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 1: about to let him beat them with his legs. That 128 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:01,360 Speaker 1: ain't happening. You beat them, Okay, you're not doing it 129 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:05,680 Speaker 1: running the quarterback second thing. I think Justin Field's accuracy 130 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:09,280 Speaker 1: will largely determine how this game goes. If the game 131 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 1: goes according to script, Ohio State wins it pretty point blank. 132 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:15,680 Speaker 1: There some things have to go off script for Penn 133 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:18,480 Speaker 1: State to win this. It's not impossible. That's exactly how 134 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:21,599 Speaker 1: it would happen. Though. The Penn State defensive approach here 135 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:25,720 Speaker 1: probably a lot different than Nebraska last week. You probably 136 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 1: noticed coming out of that Ohio State Nebraska game there 137 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:31,280 Speaker 1: were some people freaking out about the run game. I 138 00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:33,599 Speaker 1: don't know why you'd freak out about anything when you 139 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 1: won going away in week one, but there were some 140 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:39,200 Speaker 1: people who said, we don't have a run game. Well, no, 141 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 1: you didn't have much of one at the tailback position 142 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 1: in week one. It also wasn't horrible. It's just that 143 00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:48,280 Speaker 1: neither Trey Sermon nor Master Tue ran for one hundred 144 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:51,320 Speaker 1: and fifty. Justin Fields had a pretty good day in 145 00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 1: the collective, they had a pretty good day. Could have 146 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:56,839 Speaker 1: been better. But the point is a lot of times 147 00:06:56,880 --> 00:07:00,200 Speaker 1: when you hear that analysis, it's in a vacuum totally 148 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:03,480 Speaker 1: independent of the kind of defensive fronts that Nebraska played, 149 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:05,839 Speaker 1: for example, where they put seventeen guys in the box 150 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:08,719 Speaker 1: most of the afternoon. Now, to me, that did a 151 00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:11,480 Speaker 1: couple of things. It limited Ohio State on the ground, 152 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 1: but it was also just asking to be killed through 153 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 1: the air. And that's why, as a lot of people 154 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:19,440 Speaker 1: were freaking out at rushing statistics, you look down at 155 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 1: your statute afterwards and you say, justin fields, how'd he do? Oh? 156 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 1: He was twenty of twenty one for two hundred and 157 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 1: seventy six yards. So essentially they got most of whatever 158 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 1: they wanted through the air. That kind of accuracy wins 159 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 1: you a lot of football games. That kind of completion 160 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 1: percentage moves the chains and wins you a lot of 161 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:38,600 Speaker 1: football games. So, like I said, I think their rushing 162 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 1: numbers will probably be a little bit better this week. 163 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 1: In fact, I think there's a path where Ohio State 164 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:46,720 Speaker 1: has a one hundred plus yard rushing tailback this week 165 00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:49,520 Speaker 1: and they lose a game. I think both of those 166 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:52,840 Speaker 1: things could happen again. That's not a prediction, that's just 167 00:07:52,920 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 1: a statement. But it's one of those kind of that 168 00:07:56,240 --> 00:07:59,200 Speaker 1: age old defensive metaphor of do you want to chase 169 00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 1: the rabbit or do you just want to guard the hole? 170 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 1: The more athletic defense is it's really hard sometimes to 171 00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:07,360 Speaker 1: swallow your pride just guard the hole because you're going 172 00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 1: to give up yard. Barry Odom is doing this very 173 00:08:09,760 --> 00:08:12,480 Speaker 1: well at Arkansas right now, but Bury otom does not 174 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 1: have Penn State talent. A lot of times, when you 175 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 1: have Penn State talent, and I understand this, you want 176 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:19,800 Speaker 1: to go after someone and you want to impose your will. 177 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 1: That's why you recruit and develop the way that you do. 178 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 1: So it's kind of interesting to look at what Nebraska 179 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:27,640 Speaker 1: did against Ohio State last week and then juxtaposed that 180 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 1: to what Penn State could do this week. Is what 181 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:33,880 Speaker 1: I think is the probably best approach and most likely 182 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 1: to put them in position to spring an upset is 183 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 1: going to include Ohio State racking up a ton of 184 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:42,360 Speaker 1: yards between the twenties, but it also comes down to 185 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:47,560 Speaker 1: clogging some passing lanes, batting some balls, contesting throws, and 186 00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:50,079 Speaker 1: then probably forcing an interception or two. Penn State has 187 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 1: very very good edge pressure that they can get and 188 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 1: so they showed it. It was on display last week. 189 00:08:55,720 --> 00:08:59,080 Speaker 1: It should have won them a game. Don't say that 190 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:01,400 Speaker 1: very often. You would have won them a game. I mean, 191 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:03,679 Speaker 1: on the money downs late in that game, they had 192 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:05,560 Speaker 1: a lot of heat off the edge. So you do 193 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 1: that again. And I'm gonna shift to this in a 194 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 1: second talking about what it takes for Penn State to 195 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:12,680 Speaker 1: win this game. Just that you could win the game 196 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 1: wide receiver is a big point of interest for Ohio 197 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:17,840 Speaker 1: State this year in general, and it's a big point 198 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 1: of interest coming into this game. And the reason is 199 00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:24,600 Speaker 1: because Chris Olave's status as of Tuesday when we're doing 200 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:27,600 Speaker 1: this show live, it's still uncertain. Now. The best I 201 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 1: can tell, the best intel I have from up there 202 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:34,040 Speaker 1: is there's a cautious optimism he's gonna play Saturday. But 203 00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:36,640 Speaker 1: I want to stress this, even if he doesn't play, 204 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:39,440 Speaker 1: that's not a one trick pony of a position group. 205 00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 1: They have Garrett Wilson who shined, had a really good 206 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:46,840 Speaker 1: day Saturday and is fully capable of duplicating that against 207 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:50,040 Speaker 1: pretty much anyone. They play Smith and Jigbad, Julian Fleming, 208 00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:52,079 Speaker 1: a lot of their young guys. I mean they are there. 209 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 1: Those are options that would be bona fide starters most 210 00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 1: other places in the country. So I don't think that 211 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:02,920 Speaker 1: the game play is drastically altered. Whether a love can 212 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 1: go or not it alters things. I don't think it 213 00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:09,240 Speaker 1: drastically alters things. So how does this happen? How does 214 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:11,559 Speaker 1: Penn State pull this upset? If they potentially do pull 215 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:15,600 Speaker 1: this upset? The first thing, let's just say nothing changes 216 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 1: this week other than they flip the errors. What air 217 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 1: is you talking about, Josh Well, I'm talking about missed 218 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 1: field goals. They had three of them last week. They 219 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:25,599 Speaker 1: had two interceptions, they had one hundred yards in penalties, 220 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 1: they had two mishandled kicks. Everything, and I do mean 221 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:32,840 Speaker 1: this literally that could have gone wrong went wrong for 222 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:34,800 Speaker 1: Penn State. A lot of people are throwing around the 223 00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 1: S and P plus win percentage rate today. You know, 224 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: it's one of those deals where you track it and 225 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:44,239 Speaker 1: what percentage towards the end of the game, what percentage 226 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:46,720 Speaker 1: of those games would you have won given the box score, 227 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 1: given the numbers in the box score, And I think 228 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:52,480 Speaker 1: the number was at like ninety eight percent or ninety 229 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 1: nine percent, So Penn State found a way to lose 230 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:56,800 Speaker 1: a game they had essentially a ninety nine percent chance 231 00:10:56,800 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 1: of winning. Craziness if you just flip that this is 232 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 1: a very competitive game Saturday, I don't have any reason 233 00:11:04,040 --> 00:11:06,120 Speaker 1: to promise you that will be able to happen. There's 234 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:09,040 Speaker 1: a lot more pressure on you Saturday. It's like, you know, 235 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 1: we always use the analogy of trying to plug fourteen 236 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:13,319 Speaker 1: holes in a dam with ten fingers. That's kind of 237 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 1: what it feels like sometimes. But you know it could 238 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 1: happen Saturday. Second thing, they were working at a snail's 239 00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:24,559 Speaker 1: pace last week at Indiana. I gotta think they'll incorporate 240 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:27,520 Speaker 1: a lot more tempo today or not today Saturday. And 241 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 1: maybe if you're watching on Saturday morning, it's today now. 242 00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:33,920 Speaker 1: That always sounds good. No one ever goes into a game, 243 00:11:33,920 --> 00:11:35,480 Speaker 1: no fan base ever goes into a game. No one 244 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:37,320 Speaker 1: ever starts a thread on a message board that says, 245 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:39,880 Speaker 1: I really hope we grind our pace to a halt 246 00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 1: this Saturday. However, you all of a sudden get you 247 00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 1: a couple of three and outs, and you understand how 248 00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:47,840 Speaker 1: that tilts the table quickly against you, So you gotta 249 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 1: be smart about it. You got to pick your spots. 250 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:52,120 Speaker 1: But there are some young guys who are still kind 251 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:55,679 Speaker 1: of unproven in the defensive front for Ohio State, ditto 252 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 1: and their secondary So confusion, if you can force that 253 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 1: enough Saturday, that could lead you to doing something that, 254 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 1: to be honest, I don't think you can do. Is 255 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:07,080 Speaker 1: We're about to get to our game preview now. In fact, Colin, 256 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:09,320 Speaker 1: we can go ahead and show the capsule. So we 257 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:11,200 Speaker 1: show a game capsule for every one of our game 258 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:14,280 Speaker 1: previews and breakdowns. We show you the Vegas number, and 259 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:17,440 Speaker 1: then we show you our own models projection per one 260 00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:20,679 Speaker 1: thousand simulations of this game, Vegas sits right now with 261 00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:23,120 Speaker 1: Ohio State at minus twelve. That numbers kind of moved 262 00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:25,360 Speaker 1: around a little bit, and it's probably not done moving. 263 00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:28,679 Speaker 1: We're up over two touchdowns. We love Ohio State. Our 264 00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 1: model loved Ohio State last week and we laid off 265 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,480 Speaker 1: of it because the number was so fat. It likes 266 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:35,920 Speaker 1: Ohio State again this week. In fact, I would say 267 00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 1: that's love fifteen points. It loves Ohio State. So I said, 268 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:44,920 Speaker 1: forcing those mistakes and forcing confusion could lead to Penn 269 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 1: State doing something I don't think they can do. That's 270 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:50,679 Speaker 1: trading points. Ohio State's getting theirs. Whether you think it's 271 00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 1: thirty one, thirty five, thirty eight, they're getting theirs. There's 272 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 1: a minimum number. They're like Alabama, there's a minimum number 273 00:12:56,480 --> 00:12:58,760 Speaker 1: they're going to get. Doesn't matter how good you are defensively. 274 00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:01,720 Speaker 1: You can just Rinson repeat the breakdown we did for 275 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:05,240 Speaker 1: Alabama against Georgia. The question with Georgia for Obama is 276 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:06,839 Speaker 1: how are you going to trade points? Where are you 277 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:09,560 Speaker 1: getting your points? Same question for Penn State. They don't 278 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:12,000 Speaker 1: all have to be offensive. They could be special teams, 279 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:14,800 Speaker 1: they could be defense, whatever. But where are you finding them? 280 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:17,560 Speaker 1: Where are you finding your thirty one or thirty five? 281 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:21,520 Speaker 1: If you're forcing confusion, if you're working at a quicker pace, 282 00:13:21,920 --> 00:13:23,760 Speaker 1: you could look like a totally different team than you 283 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 1: did last week. There's just a lot of to this point, 284 00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:31,839 Speaker 1: unproven parts in that Penn State offensive machine that really 285 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:33,840 Speaker 1: have to shine this week. So where am I going. 286 00:13:34,280 --> 00:13:36,720 Speaker 1: I'm going to Ohio State to whim. I'm going Ohio 287 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 1: State to cover. I'm leaning on our model because I 288 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:41,320 Speaker 1: see no reason to fly in the face of it. 289 00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 1: So give me the buck, guys, and give me the 290 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:48,320 Speaker 1: buck guys by two touchdowns or more. Saturday. Meanwhile, in 291 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:53,040 Speaker 1: the SEC, LSU at Auburn, this is always a spotlight 292 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:55,000 Speaker 1: game in the SEC. In fact, I was trying to 293 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:57,319 Speaker 1: think and I still don't know. I think it's been 294 00:13:57,480 --> 00:14:00,679 Speaker 1: six years since I missed this game in person. I'm 295 00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:03,520 Speaker 1: at this game every year, and so boy, we've been 296 00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:06,400 Speaker 1: on the field for some classics. Two out of the 297 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:10,360 Speaker 1: last three years LSU has come from double digit deficits 298 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 1: to win this game. I think they got three in 299 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:14,400 Speaker 1: a row right now against Auburn. Auburn played them really 300 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 1: close last year, played them about as close as anyone did, 301 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:23,040 Speaker 1: including Alabama, including Oklahoma, including Clemson. So both teams right now, 302 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 1: and this is the three thirty Eastern CBS Game of 303 00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 1: the Week. By the way, LSU favored by three. Both 304 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:31,720 Speaker 1: teams are on such roller coasters. It's only week six, 305 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 1: We're halfway through a season. It feels like you've seen 306 00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:38,160 Speaker 1: an entire season's worth of ups and downs with both 307 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:41,560 Speaker 1: of these teams. So it's always important to understand what 308 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:44,160 Speaker 1: the undercurrent is. You can read headlines, you can look 309 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 1: at things from a blimp fifty thousand feet in the air. 310 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:49,320 Speaker 1: I don't recommend flying you're blimp that high, but it's 311 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 1: your blimp. You do what you want to with it. 312 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:53,720 Speaker 1: But the undercurrent, what are people saying close to the 313 00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:56,080 Speaker 1: programs and we try and bring you that whenever we can. 314 00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: The undercurrent with Auburn is they are essentially you know, 315 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:02,640 Speaker 1: the old guy that you watch on the surveillance cameras, 316 00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:04,960 Speaker 1: who you know, putters his way through the red light 317 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 1: and he makes it through fine, and there's a fifteen 318 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 1: car pile up behind him, or that happens three or 319 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 1: four times, and he just keeps making his way through there. 320 00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:16,040 Speaker 1: That's kind of Auburn right now. You know, they tense 321 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 1: their body up for the wreck and they close their 322 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:21,080 Speaker 1: eyes and they made it through. And then they made 323 00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:24,040 Speaker 1: it through again, and you're like, how did we not 324 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:26,600 Speaker 1: just end up in that pile up? Who cares? Keep going? Oh? 325 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:28,320 Speaker 1: Another one? Oh we made it through that one too. 326 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:31,400 Speaker 1: Oh keep going. So here they are a lot of 327 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:33,760 Speaker 1: people argue should be one and four whatever they're not. 328 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 1: And so you know, you can make that argument all 329 00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 1: you want to, but what does it mean for the future, 330 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:41,720 Speaker 1: because it's really irrelevant all that stuff's in the past. 331 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:43,640 Speaker 1: I'm gonna circle back to that in a second. As 332 00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:46,800 Speaker 1: for the undercurrent with LSU, obviously they have not been 333 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 1: happy thus far about their defensive performance or black thereof 334 00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:52,680 Speaker 1: down there. But all of a sudden they had an 335 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 1: impromptu bye week and then they came out of it 336 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 1: and they skull drug South Carolina. Okay, people beat South 337 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:02,440 Speaker 1: Carolina all the time time to be frank, so that's 338 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:06,280 Speaker 1: not necessarily a season saver. But what you're wondering now 339 00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:09,920 Speaker 1: the undercurrent in LSU is was that a firecracker going 340 00:16:09,920 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 1: off and it's just kind of kind of be its 341 00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:13,760 Speaker 1: own little thing and it won't matter towards the end 342 00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 1: of the year, or was it a fuse lit that 343 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:18,960 Speaker 1: could lead to something bigger. That's the backdrop with which 344 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:22,000 Speaker 1: this game will be played. The LSU quarterback situation. TJ 345 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 1: Finley was the big headline down there after he stepped 346 00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:27,440 Speaker 1: in for Miles Brennan and performed pretty admirably. I'd have 347 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 1: to say last Saturday. They think that Miles Brennan will 348 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:33,840 Speaker 1: be able to play, that's very much up in the air. 349 00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:37,160 Speaker 1: That's a fifty to fifty deal. Edwars Ron has been 350 00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 1: noncommittal on that. I don't think he knows. I don't 351 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 1: think he's really hiding anything. I just don't think he knows. 352 00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 1: As for the Auburn side of things, they lose Brandon Council. 353 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:47,480 Speaker 1: That's a name you probably don't know. Well, that was 354 00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 1: a starting guard for them, and it is the worst time. 355 00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 1: Even though there is no good time to lose starters, 356 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:55,920 Speaker 1: it's the worst time. They had finally gotten to a 357 00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 1: spot at Auburn where they had had musical chairs and 358 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:01,600 Speaker 1: injuries and having to sit out and whatnot. They had 359 00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:03,760 Speaker 1: finally had a couple of weeks where they were getting 360 00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:05,639 Speaker 1: to practice and play with the same starting five, and 361 00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 1: then boom down goes a starting guard. And this was 362 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 1: already a big question mark unit and we'll continue to 363 00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:14,119 Speaker 1: be this entire year for this team. So let me 364 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:16,119 Speaker 1: switch back as we start to preview this name to 365 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:18,879 Speaker 1: the Auburn should be one in four crowd. I understand 366 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:20,399 Speaker 1: the points you're making. I agree with a lot of 367 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:23,400 Speaker 1: your points, but my point is this is a game 368 00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:26,119 Speaker 1: preview for a game that hasn't happened yet, So we 369 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:28,359 Speaker 1: can do commentary on all that stuff, and believe me, 370 00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:32,000 Speaker 1: we have. How does it impact the future. What impact 371 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:34,879 Speaker 1: does that have on the future, Because if you believe 372 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:38,719 Speaker 1: that means they're not very good, then okay, I have 373 00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:42,160 Speaker 1: good news for you. There are people in the desert 374 00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:44,439 Speaker 1: or you know, it's legal in Tennessee now, so you 375 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 1: can come over to twenty four to seven Sports Office 376 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:49,080 Speaker 1: and we'll log on it. You can lay a paycheck 377 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:52,960 Speaker 1: or two on LSU minus three. But yet, as sure 378 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:54,840 Speaker 1: as the sun's going to come up in the morning, 379 00:17:55,520 --> 00:17:58,920 Speaker 1: fingers crossed, I get this from people. Oh, el Auburn 380 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:01,399 Speaker 1: should be one in four. What are you trying to 381 00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:04,360 Speaker 1: tell me? Well, I don't really know. It's like, what 382 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:06,400 Speaker 1: are you making the statement for. Like, if you're telling 383 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:08,400 Speaker 1: me that means they're not good, just bet the house 384 00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:12,400 Speaker 1: on LSU. So I don't know what it means. That's 385 00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 1: the point. It's totally detached from the future. It could 386 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 1: be that that has bought them time and some things 387 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:21,160 Speaker 1: that maybe shouldn't have gone their way did go their way, 388 00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 1: and now it bought them enough time to maybe find 389 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:27,400 Speaker 1: an offensive identity. And so we'll see. It's ellipses dot 390 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:30,440 Speaker 1: dot to be determined. But there's just there is a 391 00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:32,840 Speaker 1: certain fear and I can tell you from being in 392 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:35,160 Speaker 1: the Southeastern Conference for quite a while, there is a 393 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:38,800 Speaker 1: certain fear and a subconscious concern that people always have 394 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:43,640 Speaker 1: with these two teams. With Auburn, it really it's purely voodoo. 395 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:45,639 Speaker 1: People believe in this down here, and I'm not so 396 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:48,280 Speaker 1: sure I disagree with them. There are things that extend 397 00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:51,280 Speaker 1: beyond the realm of the explainable that have happened in 398 00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:54,600 Speaker 1: fortuitous nature for Auburn football over the years. Most of 399 00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:56,720 Speaker 1: the time it's at home. Last week it happened on 400 00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 1: the road. But there are just things that happen. It's 401 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:02,600 Speaker 1: Halloween season. They're just things that happen. And what makes 402 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:06,760 Speaker 1: you nervous is when they start benefiting from it. Oh boy, 403 00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:08,960 Speaker 1: well they should have lost some stuff, but they didn't. 404 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 1: Now they're about to peel something off on us, aren't they. 405 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:14,600 Speaker 1: That's the concern people have. They cannot they cannot erase 406 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:17,840 Speaker 1: their memory. It's there. As for LSU, they look bad 407 00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:19,760 Speaker 1: early in the year, but if you haven't played them yet, 408 00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:22,720 Speaker 1: there's this there's this fear subconsciously way in the back 409 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:24,520 Speaker 1: of your mind of the fact that you know they 410 00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 1: still got a locker room loaded with athletes and if 411 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:30,000 Speaker 1: they ever get it in gear. There's this there's this DNA, 412 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:33,840 Speaker 1: this identity that LSU plays with, where no one down 413 00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:37,160 Speaker 1: here ever looks at LSU, I don't care what their 414 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 1: record is and says, well, that'll be a pretty easy win. 415 00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:43,240 Speaker 1: No one looks at LSU like that. They know the 416 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 1: race horses they have in that locker room. Doesn't matter 417 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 1: what Missouri did to him, doesn't matter what Mike Leech 418 00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:52,359 Speaker 1: did to him. When you play them down the road, 419 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:55,280 Speaker 1: stands to reason they probably won't put that product on 420 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:58,119 Speaker 1: the field. So let's talk about this game. Auburn is 421 00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:00,280 Speaker 1: probably gonna tilt this thing two to one. Run to 422 00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:03,320 Speaker 1: pass ratio. I see no reason to think otherwise. They 423 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:06,520 Speaker 1: kind of did it last week. You saw LSU score 424 00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 1: fifty two points last week, right You saw him running 425 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:11,600 Speaker 1: up on South Carolina and that's great, had a good 426 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:14,119 Speaker 1: offensive day. Here's what I think. Gus Malsan watched that 427 00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 1: film and he saw he saw a kick return for LSU, 428 00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:21,080 Speaker 1: He saw a pick six for LSU. He also saw 429 00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 1: LSU go eight for ten on third down, and he 430 00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:27,560 Speaker 1: sees the fact that LSU is leading the league in 431 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:31,200 Speaker 1: sacks right now. He also is not dumb. He knows 432 00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:34,520 Speaker 1: the limitations on his quarterback bo Nicks. Does that sound 433 00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:36,159 Speaker 1: like a formula that makes you want to put the 434 00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:38,760 Speaker 1: ball in the air a whole lot, Seth Williams or not. 435 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,840 Speaker 1: I don't think so. Now. As sure as I say that, 436 00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:44,080 Speaker 1: I think LSU is going to do the exact same 437 00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:46,879 Speaker 1: thing last week. I wrote it down. LSU was a 438 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:50,720 Speaker 1: fifty four to twenty one run to pass ratio last week. 439 00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:52,560 Speaker 1: This is going to be a very run heavy game, 440 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:56,080 Speaker 1: and if the defensive fronts had stiffened at all this year, 441 00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:59,479 Speaker 1: I think the under would be extremely attractive in this thing. 442 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,680 Speaker 1: Five and a half right now, clock is winding all 443 00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:06,280 Speaker 1: day long in this game. So I'm not so sure 444 00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:08,640 Speaker 1: we may not go back to that under. I'd love 445 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:10,160 Speaker 1: for it to creep up a little bit. We got 446 00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:12,639 Speaker 1: to get some value out of that theme. But LSU, 447 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:15,359 Speaker 1: as I said, fifty four to twenty one run to 448 00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:20,959 Speaker 1: pass ratio, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina, ed ors Ron watches 449 00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:23,360 Speaker 1: those teams that have already played Auburn, and they all 450 00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:26,000 Speaker 1: have one thing in common. They just ran straight at Auburn. 451 00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:28,320 Speaker 1: This is the first time, as I've told you before, 452 00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:31,720 Speaker 1: in quite a while where the game plan to attack 453 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 1: the Auburn defense is just run right up the middle 454 00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:37,120 Speaker 1: of the Auburn defense. You never ever say that about them. 455 00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:39,679 Speaker 1: Some teams have had success doing it this year. A 456 00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:41,840 Speaker 1: couple of questions before we move to the game capsule 457 00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:45,520 Speaker 1: in a pick here? How frequently mentioned Seth Williams there? 458 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:49,439 Speaker 1: How frequently will Auburn feel comfortable targeting him? Got to 459 00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:53,200 Speaker 1: imagine that's a lot of Steingley versus Williams competition Saturday. 460 00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:56,600 Speaker 1: How frequently do they feel comfortable throwing to him? He's 461 00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,760 Speaker 1: a really good contested catch guy. There are very few 462 00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 1: coin in America with better ball skills than Derek Stingley. 463 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:06,439 Speaker 1: Second question, it's two Auburn questions. Really are they going 464 00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:08,960 Speaker 1: to incorporate more tempo? They didn't work at a very 465 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:12,239 Speaker 1: fast pace most of the afternoon against Ole miss. I 466 00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:14,040 Speaker 1: think both of these you know, there's kind of a 467 00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:16,640 Speaker 1: catch twenty two for both of these offensive coordinators. They 468 00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:19,320 Speaker 1: know the depth situation is not the best. They know 469 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:22,960 Speaker 1: these defensive fronts are not vintage LSU or Auburn defensive fronts. 470 00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:26,880 Speaker 1: But yet they're also petrified of making mistakes that ended 471 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:29,600 Speaker 1: up costing a game, and a game that both programs 472 00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:33,800 Speaker 1: very very dearly need to win. I looked at this thing, Colin, 473 00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:35,680 Speaker 1: let's go ahead and get ready to cue up that capsule, 474 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:38,840 Speaker 1: and I said, offensive lines. That's really where it is. 475 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:43,159 Speaker 1: LSU is offensive line. I really don't think is going 476 00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:46,159 Speaker 1: to be taken advantage of by Auburn's pass rush. I 477 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 1: don't think Auburn has an elite pass rush right now. 478 00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:51,399 Speaker 1: LSU may not have a vintage elite pass rush, but 479 00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 1: there are a lot of guys like bj Ojeli, for instance, 480 00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:57,720 Speaker 1: coming on that I think will have much more success 481 00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:00,959 Speaker 1: against Auburn's offensive line Saturday after noon. So as we 482 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:04,160 Speaker 1: look at the game capsule and it's LSU minus three, 483 00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:08,440 Speaker 1: even though our in house model has LSU minus two, 484 00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:11,200 Speaker 1: I'm on the other side of that. I'm up north 485 00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:14,000 Speaker 1: of three. I like LSU to win the game. I 486 00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:17,320 Speaker 1: also like LSU to cover the three. It's not an 487 00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 1: official play for us. Maybe a total maybe a little 488 00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:21,720 Speaker 1: bit later in the week. We'll see. Stay tuned for that. 489 00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:25,320 Speaker 1: But I don't know. I could be dead wrong. I 490 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:27,880 Speaker 1: think LSU found a little something last week, and even 491 00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,480 Speaker 1: if they didn't, I still think they bring enough into 492 00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:32,280 Speaker 1: this game to win. I just don't think there's enough 493 00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:35,040 Speaker 1: juice offensively for Auburn, and I really don't trust that 494 00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,600 Speaker 1: offensive line situation. I think there's enough disruptors in LSU's 495 00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:41,720 Speaker 1: especially that linebacker cord Now, defensive ends and whatnot. I 496 00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,439 Speaker 1: think there are enough to force some critical errors that 497 00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:48,199 Speaker 1: ended up being the difference in that game. All right, 498 00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 1: let's go. Let's texting me here. Oh that's nice. Our 499 00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:54,480 Speaker 1: best and worst case records. We did this at the 500 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 1: beginning of the year for a whole lot of teams. 501 00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:58,600 Speaker 1: So I wanted I told Colin, Colin, it's time for 502 00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,000 Speaker 1: us to hit a reset button and to Marcelo released 503 00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,160 Speaker 1: this feature. It's on twenty four to seven sports dot 504 00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:04,920 Speaker 1: com right now if you want to wait till the 505 00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:06,800 Speaker 1: end of the show and go read it. It's really good. 506 00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:08,640 Speaker 1: You know, he put his thoughts in there. He did 507 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:11,720 Speaker 1: an updated version of the best case and worst case 508 00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:14,640 Speaker 1: records for all the teams in the SEC. So I'm 509 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,480 Speaker 1: not going to quite be that extensive. But as Colin 510 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,480 Speaker 1: is showing you the SEC Eastern Division standings right now, 511 00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,440 Speaker 1: how about that we are sitting here, it's not even 512 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:27,080 Speaker 1: Halloween and there are no undefeated teams in the SEC East. 513 00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,600 Speaker 1: That is what COVID will do to you. So let's 514 00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:34,160 Speaker 1: break it down. I think we're kind of closely going 515 00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,160 Speaker 1: in this order, not quite in the order of the standings, 516 00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:37,480 Speaker 1: and we're not going to do all the teams. So 517 00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:40,360 Speaker 1: Georgia is three and one right now, as you see there. 518 00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:43,520 Speaker 1: Our preseason when I say ah, I mean late kicks 519 00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:47,000 Speaker 1: preseason projections on Georgia. Our best case for them was 520 00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:49,560 Speaker 1: ten and zero and our worst case was six and four. 521 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:52,919 Speaker 1: So my updated number there is right in line with 522 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:56,440 Speaker 1: what Marcelo put in his feature nine and one best 523 00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:58,760 Speaker 1: case because they've already lost a game, and seven and 524 00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:01,360 Speaker 1: three is the worst case. And this one's not hard 525 00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:03,440 Speaker 1: to figure out at all. I think everyone's question would 526 00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:05,919 Speaker 1: be the same. It's not oh, what are you going 527 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:09,280 Speaker 1: to do at quarterback? It's if something happens at quarterback. 528 00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:13,119 Speaker 1: If JT. Daniels ends up starting Saturday, who in the 529 00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:15,960 Speaker 1: world knows, or he starts against Florida, how big a 530 00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:18,480 Speaker 1: leap can the offense make? Because I think there's an 531 00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:22,240 Speaker 1: assumption from some that once Daniels gets in there, it's 532 00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:26,359 Speaker 1: just an automatic shift into a different gear. It may be. 533 00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:30,640 Speaker 1: Talent wise, he is superior to Stetson Bennett, but that's 534 00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:32,840 Speaker 1: if he's at one hundred percent. There's a big difference 535 00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,840 Speaker 1: between me and medically cleared and being mentally and physically 536 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,679 Speaker 1: one hundred percent to play ball in this league. So 537 00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:41,280 Speaker 1: right now, that's where we sit with Georgia. How about Florida. 538 00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:43,840 Speaker 1: Florida Gators currently two in one. It seems like they 539 00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:46,040 Speaker 1: should have played a lot more than that, but obviously 540 00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 1: they had two games canceled on them or postponed. So 541 00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:52,600 Speaker 1: our preseason model for Florida said ten and oh best case, 542 00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:56,480 Speaker 1: six and four worst case. So they've lost a game 543 00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:58,880 Speaker 1: two they lost at Texas A and M. So I'm 544 00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,919 Speaker 1: with Marcelo on this. Two nine to one is the 545 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:05,240 Speaker 1: updated best case six and four. Both of us still 546 00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:09,199 Speaker 1: agree that's the worst case record for Florida. It is 547 00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:12,840 Speaker 1: a very very important week for the Florida Gators. Now, 548 00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:14,639 Speaker 1: I know they play Missouri and a lot of you 549 00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:17,119 Speaker 1: aren't going to watch that game, But Missouri is not 550 00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:20,080 Speaker 1: a half bad offense, so I'm not necessarily pitching you 551 00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:22,600 Speaker 1: on Upsett Alert. We're going to talk about the game 552 00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:25,359 Speaker 1: Thursday night. They got Georgia coming up in a week. 553 00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:29,840 Speaker 1: They just got back on the practice field yesterday I think, yeah, Monday, 554 00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:31,880 Speaker 1: So they just they had to take a two week 555 00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:34,960 Speaker 1: mandatory break from practicing. It's not like they've been down 556 00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,440 Speaker 1: there hard at work on the practice field. I would 557 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:40,479 Speaker 1: imagine those Zoom sessions have been pretty fiery because they 558 00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 1: got to figure something out defensively, and it's not that 559 00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:45,840 Speaker 1: they lack the personnel to do it. That's kind of 560 00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:49,600 Speaker 1: what's been so frustrating for Florida fans. The defense holds 561 00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:51,920 Speaker 1: the key here, and that's why I'm mentioning this week. 562 00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:55,560 Speaker 1: You'll know, kind of like you think, maybe LSU flipped 563 00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:57,399 Speaker 1: a switch last week, Well, you want to see the 564 00:26:57,480 --> 00:26:59,879 Speaker 1: endverse of that. You want to see Florida do it defensively. 565 00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,120 Speaker 1: You want to see them flip a switch and not 566 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:04,960 Speaker 1: just beat Missouri, but beat them to the tune of life. 567 00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,920 Speaker 1: And instead of making it fifty one to thirty five, 568 00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:11,400 Speaker 1: give me something like thirty five to ten or thirteen. 569 00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:15,600 Speaker 1: That would be very encouraging to me. How about Tennessee. 570 00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:18,280 Speaker 1: Tennessee's two and three. They have gone into their bye 571 00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:20,480 Speaker 1: week now, they started off two and oh. They hadn't 572 00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:22,840 Speaker 1: won a game since then granted they're one of I 573 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:25,320 Speaker 1: don't think anyone's played Georgia and Alabama. I may be 574 00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:27,680 Speaker 1: wrong on that. Well, anyway, they got thrown into the 575 00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:31,919 Speaker 1: woodship or scheduling wise there. So our preseason model was 576 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,560 Speaker 1: seven and three best case, three and seven worst case 577 00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:38,400 Speaker 1: for Tennessee updated. I'm right there with Marcelo. We're right 578 00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:41,560 Speaker 1: in line on both of our projections. Here updated best 579 00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:45,240 Speaker 1: case is down. It is six and four. Our updated 580 00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:48,439 Speaker 1: worst case is three and seven. Let me read you 581 00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:50,639 Speaker 1: the games. Keep in mind they're two and three right now. 582 00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:53,439 Speaker 1: Here are the remaining games for Tennessee. They got a 583 00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:55,960 Speaker 1: bye week this week, and then the rest of the 584 00:27:56,000 --> 00:28:00,000 Speaker 1: way they are at Arkansas, Texas A and M at home, 585 00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:06,520 Speaker 1: at Auburn, at Vanderbilt home against Florida. I mean Vanderbilt's 586 00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:10,440 Speaker 1: on there. Elsewhere? What at Arkansas something you would have 587 00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:12,639 Speaker 1: looked at preseason and said, all right, we'll get some 588 00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:17,159 Speaker 1: things right there. Maybe maybe not, who knows. I listen, 589 00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:19,120 Speaker 1: I got a feeling, and I think it's more gut 590 00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:22,359 Speaker 1: than anything. I still think there's a different gear somewhere 591 00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:24,600 Speaker 1: for this team this year. There's a lot of very 592 00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:29,240 Speaker 1: good young offensive skill talent on their roster hasn't fully blossomed. 593 00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:32,000 Speaker 1: I don't know that it will fully blossom at any 594 00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:35,280 Speaker 1: point this year. But if it does, what if that 595 00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:37,840 Speaker 1: coincides with a change at the quarterback position. What if 596 00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:41,280 Speaker 1: Harrison Bailey ends up getting a much stronger look coming 597 00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:43,280 Speaker 1: out of this by week? And just what if that's 598 00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:45,840 Speaker 1: the click for Tennessee. Because there are going to be 599 00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:47,760 Speaker 1: teams You and I both know this. They are going 600 00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:50,720 Speaker 1: to be teams this year that you wrote off early 601 00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:53,080 Speaker 1: in the year that, as it turns out, we're just 602 00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:55,920 Speaker 1: ill prepared to start the season because of COVID or 603 00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:58,240 Speaker 1: whatever you want to call it, maybe just football that 604 00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:01,280 Speaker 1: are going to find another gear. I think Tennessee may 605 00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:03,040 Speaker 1: be one of those teams. So a lot of people 606 00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:05,200 Speaker 1: are punting on them right now. I think they'll finish 607 00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:08,640 Speaker 1: a lot closer to six and four than three and seven. Colin, 608 00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:10,360 Speaker 1: you know what, Let's stay in the East. You know, 609 00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:13,000 Speaker 1: I almost put this paper aside. No, no, no, no, 610 00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:15,520 Speaker 1: we got to talk about South Carolina. The game Cocks 611 00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:19,400 Speaker 1: are two and three. We are radically shifting from October 612 00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:22,160 Speaker 1: to no when November. That's what we're in danger of here. 613 00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:23,680 Speaker 1: You got to be cared. It's a fine line that 614 00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:27,520 Speaker 1: you walk between those two months preseason for South Carolina. 615 00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:31,080 Speaker 1: I was six and four best case, two and eight 616 00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:35,320 Speaker 1: worst case. What's the updated projection here? This is where 617 00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:37,840 Speaker 1: I differed with Marcelo a little bit. He still kept 618 00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:39,880 Speaker 1: it at six and four best case, as did I. 619 00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:43,440 Speaker 1: He went three and seven worst case, though I went 620 00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:46,520 Speaker 1: two and eight worst case. I really do think there 621 00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:48,320 Speaker 1: is a path if the bottom were to fall out 622 00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:51,880 Speaker 1: here where they don't win another game. That is entirely possible. 623 00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:54,600 Speaker 1: And anyone who argues with me that it's not, I 624 00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:57,320 Speaker 1: would give you one, two, three, I would give you 625 00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:00,200 Speaker 1: five VHS tapes to watch. They would just be South 626 00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,959 Speaker 1: Carolina football. This year, I had a fair amount of confidence. 627 00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:06,160 Speaker 1: I'm a little aggravated, you can tell I am, because 628 00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:09,600 Speaker 1: I gave my stamp of endorsement the money Line stamp 629 00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:12,960 Speaker 1: of endorsement. I thought they were winning last Saturday, and 630 00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:16,560 Speaker 1: they got splattered last Saturday. So I lost a lot 631 00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:20,680 Speaker 1: of confidence and still a little a little angry about it. 632 00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:23,920 Speaker 1: I think they're probably looking at something around four and six. 633 00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:25,760 Speaker 1: That's where I think they are right now. But six 634 00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:27,800 Speaker 1: and four best case, two and eight, I think is 635 00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:29,960 Speaker 1: the worst case at the bottom were to fall out. Now, 636 00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:32,640 Speaker 1: let's take it across the Chattahoochie River. I had one 637 00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:35,120 Speaker 1: of you email me and say you ought to use 638 00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:38,560 Speaker 1: the Cusa River. That's a little more geographically correct in 639 00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:40,480 Speaker 1: separating the East and the West. But the thing about 640 00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:42,480 Speaker 1: it is, I didn't grow up on the Cusa River. 641 00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:46,400 Speaker 1: I grew up in the Chattahoochee River. Plus, there are 642 00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:49,320 Speaker 1: no songs that have ever hit number one titled way 643 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:52,400 Speaker 1: Down Yonder on the Cusa. I'm just saying, so let's 644 00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:56,720 Speaker 1: get into this SEC West now, best and worst case updated, 645 00:30:57,080 --> 00:30:59,280 Speaker 1: there is still an undefeated team in the SEC West, 646 00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:02,440 Speaker 1: the Alabama Crims and Tied familiar face there. And how 647 00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:05,040 Speaker 1: about A and M. They were our number two team 648 00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:07,080 Speaker 1: in the West and thus far a long way to go. 649 00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:10,800 Speaker 1: They still sit at three and one and number two. 650 00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:14,040 Speaker 1: And then you got a really really muddy situation after that, 651 00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:15,960 Speaker 1: and a lot of you would argue that those standings 652 00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:19,800 Speaker 1: are incorrect. And listen, Colin can only do what the 653 00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:21,960 Speaker 1: League office tells him he can do. I mean, those 654 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:25,720 Speaker 1: are the official records, so officiating notwithstanding, that's what we 655 00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:29,560 Speaker 1: have to go with right now. As for Alabama preseason 656 00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:32,160 Speaker 1: every year. The best case is undefeated for them, which 657 00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,440 Speaker 1: is what mine was, ten and oh. My worst case 658 00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:37,320 Speaker 1: for them was seven and three. Marcelo and I both 659 00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:40,240 Speaker 1: agree with our updated projection. Their best case remains ten 660 00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:43,120 Speaker 1: and oh. Their worst case is eight and two. We've 661 00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:45,080 Speaker 1: bumped it up because they're past the Georgia game now, 662 00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 1: so all the offensive boxes have been checked. Matt Jones 663 00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:51,320 Speaker 1: is everything you would hope he would be, and then 664 00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:54,360 Speaker 1: some Jalen Waddle's out. So if you're looking towards the 665 00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:56,760 Speaker 1: worst case, if you're asking how could the eight and 666 00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:59,880 Speaker 1: two happen, Well, you could have a bunch of co 667 00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:03,040 Speaker 1: stuff happen. But outside of that, it could be that 668 00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:05,760 Speaker 1: the Jalen Waddle hole is even bigger than you would think. So, 669 00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:10,320 Speaker 1: and maybe defensively they just never find themselves now, I 670 00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:13,360 Speaker 1: happen to believe when you look at Tim Smith entering 671 00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:15,560 Speaker 1: the game Saturday for them, which is a name. I 672 00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:19,040 Speaker 1: have been texting folks at Bama every week about knowing 673 00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:21,720 Speaker 1: what they lack on the interior so far this year, Hey, 674 00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:23,200 Speaker 1: when the world are we going to see Tim Smith? 675 00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:25,920 Speaker 1: Saw him a little bit Saturday, Brian Branch I think 676 00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:28,560 Speaker 1: they'll be more versatile with him. He's a true freshman. 677 00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:31,440 Speaker 1: Both of those guys are, but got to use them. 678 00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:33,239 Speaker 1: I mean, that's talent, you gotta use it. I think 679 00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:36,680 Speaker 1: they will start using them more. How about LSU LSU 680 00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,800 Speaker 1: the preseason for US, as the Tigers sit two and two, 681 00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:43,560 Speaker 1: The preseason for US had LSU at nine and one, 682 00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:48,800 Speaker 1: best case, four and six worst case. Marcelo has updated 683 00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:51,840 Speaker 1: his projection and his best case is seven and three. 684 00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:56,040 Speaker 1: Worst case is three and seven. I am a tick 685 00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,960 Speaker 1: up on my worst case. I still have seven and 686 00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:01,800 Speaker 1: three as their updated best case, but I've got four 687 00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:04,240 Speaker 1: and six as their worst case. I no longer see 688 00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,000 Speaker 1: the trapdoor carrying them down all the way to three 689 00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:09,240 Speaker 1: and seven. I think there's reason to believe. And this is, 690 00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:11,480 Speaker 1: like I said, still to be determined. I think there's 691 00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:14,120 Speaker 1: at least somewhat of an optimistic approach you could take here, 692 00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:17,239 Speaker 1: and there's reason to believe that some rapid cohesion has 693 00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:20,160 Speaker 1: begun to happen. We thought this may be the case. 694 00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:24,280 Speaker 1: We thought they may show up Week one not quite 695 00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:26,520 Speaker 1: ready yet, or maybe not even close to being ready yet, 696 00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:28,680 Speaker 1: just as an overall team, and if that were to happen, 697 00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:30,440 Speaker 1: they were going to get embarrassed. But if that were 698 00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:31,760 Speaker 1: to happen, there was also going to be a lot 699 00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:35,160 Speaker 1: of people riding them off only to find that Okay, well, 700 00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:37,560 Speaker 1: it turns out they were ready by week four, week five. 701 00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:40,040 Speaker 1: Whenever the case may be, point bam, hey, maybe that 702 00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:42,560 Speaker 1: happened last week. Maybe we reached that tipping point last week. 703 00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:45,240 Speaker 1: We'll see, because just as easily as you say that, 704 00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:49,320 Speaker 1: you could also see him lose thirty seven to twenty Saturday. 705 00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:52,800 Speaker 1: So at Auburn, we'll say a whole lot. Texas A 706 00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:55,120 Speaker 1: and M the current number two in the West. They 707 00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:58,320 Speaker 1: are three and one on the season. We have been 708 00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,240 Speaker 1: high on this team that keep losing wide receiver talent, 709 00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:03,000 Speaker 1: but we've been high on them all year. We had 710 00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:05,680 Speaker 1: them number two in the West in our preseason. Preseason, 711 00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:07,480 Speaker 1: I had them nine and one, best case, five and 712 00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:10,759 Speaker 1: five worst case. Marcelo and I are still on the 713 00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:13,600 Speaker 1: same page here. Nothing has changed. Nine and one is 714 00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:17,160 Speaker 1: still the best case, five and five still the worst case. 715 00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:20,120 Speaker 1: Love how they ended up going into the by they 716 00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:24,120 Speaker 1: had the loss against Alabama. They rectified themselves and validated 717 00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:26,880 Speaker 1: a lot of belief out there with the win against Florida. 718 00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:29,880 Speaker 1: They avoided a potential landmine on the road at Mississippi 719 00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:32,160 Speaker 1: State during the bye week. Well, now they come out 720 00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:34,680 Speaker 1: of it. They, by the way, are our best bet Saturday. 721 00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:37,879 Speaker 1: They opened as a ten point favorite against Arkansas at home. 722 00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:39,840 Speaker 1: That line has since moved to twelve. That's why we 723 00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:42,440 Speaker 1: gave it out early. So seven and three. Listen, they 724 00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:46,719 Speaker 1: could go seven and three guys just by playing relatively 725 00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:48,920 Speaker 1: mistake free football, like they're going to have a roster 726 00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:51,759 Speaker 1: advantage over most everyone they play the rest of the way. 727 00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:54,200 Speaker 1: So that's what you're looking at. You're not looking for 728 00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:56,560 Speaker 1: Kellen Mond to go on a Heisman run. You're just 729 00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:58,640 Speaker 1: looking for him not to have a one touchdown, three 730 00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:02,640 Speaker 1: interception stat line any given afternoon. How about Auburn. Auburn's 731 00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:05,880 Speaker 1: playing LSU Saturday. Preseason on Auburn, we had nine and 732 00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:08,439 Speaker 1: one as the best case, and we had four and 733 00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:11,040 Speaker 1: six as the worst case. They are three and two 734 00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:14,640 Speaker 1: right now. Again, that's what the league record book says. 735 00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:18,960 Speaker 1: Marcelo and I agree. Again, seven and three best case 736 00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:22,560 Speaker 1: for Auburn. The updated number and four and six is 737 00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:26,319 Speaker 1: the worst case. So the best case has obviously been 738 00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:28,560 Speaker 1: knocked down. A pegart two, but my worst case is 739 00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:31,520 Speaker 1: still four and six for them. It is the highest 740 00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,279 Speaker 1: variance team in America. That's what we thought about them 741 00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:37,239 Speaker 1: in the preseason. How could you watch this year and 742 00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:40,560 Speaker 1: think anything else. Even the officiating is high variance in 743 00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:44,520 Speaker 1: Auburn games. So the offensive identity, it's been a question 744 00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,600 Speaker 1: every Auburn fan's been asking, like, well, Chad Morris is 745 00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:49,360 Speaker 1: coming in, who are we going to be? What are 746 00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:51,279 Speaker 1: we gonna be? And then you played a couple of 747 00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:53,279 Speaker 1: football games you were still asking who are we? What 748 00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:55,920 Speaker 1: are we? Well, last week I was reading you those 749 00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,799 Speaker 1: stats about the run to pass ratio and we told 750 00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:00,719 Speaker 1: you the reason we liked Auburn stole a mess it' 751 00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:03,920 Speaker 1: because I thought Gus Malsan was either going to outright 752 00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:05,960 Speaker 1: take a lot of that play calling duty back or 753 00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:09,160 Speaker 1: he was going to walk in and say, Chad, we're 754 00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:11,720 Speaker 1: not throwing the ball this week. We got Tank Bixby, 755 00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:14,760 Speaker 1: true freshman's coming on, we got a limited offensive line, 756 00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:18,920 Speaker 1: they can't stop molasses in December, Let's run the ball. 757 00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:21,439 Speaker 1: And so they did, and for better or for worse, 758 00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:23,839 Speaker 1: I think that's got to be their identity, which is 759 00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:26,439 Speaker 1: really close to being in line with what they've always been. 760 00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:28,360 Speaker 1: I mean, at their best, they've been run, they've been 761 00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:31,160 Speaker 1: play action over the top, and you know, it aggravates 762 00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:32,960 Speaker 1: you that you don't have an intermediate passing game, but 763 00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:35,200 Speaker 1: you'd rather not have one than try to have one 764 00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:37,560 Speaker 1: and turn the ball over all the time. So I 765 00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:39,520 Speaker 1: was looking at the rest of their schedule now, just 766 00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:40,840 Speaker 1: as much as I said A and M is going 767 00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,319 Speaker 1: to be at a roster advantage most of the rest 768 00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:47,280 Speaker 1: of the way, Auburn has LSU at Alabama and Texas 769 00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:49,799 Speaker 1: A and M left. Those are three out of their 770 00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:52,719 Speaker 1: final five games where they will not have a roster advantage. 771 00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:54,759 Speaker 1: Just something I like to throw out there. It's not 772 00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:57,279 Speaker 1: like there'll be four touchdown underdogs, but just something to 773 00:36:57,320 --> 00:37:01,560 Speaker 1: think about. And finally, we're talking about at Arkansas. Why 774 00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:05,480 Speaker 1: wouldn't we Our preseason numbers were not pretty for Arkansas 775 00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:08,479 Speaker 1: two and eight. What's what we had for best case? 776 00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:12,480 Speaker 1: That was best CASEH to ten was worst case. They're 777 00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:14,919 Speaker 1: two and two right now, flat out should be three 778 00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:18,719 Speaker 1: and one. They are two and two right now. Marcelo 779 00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:22,080 Speaker 1: has updated his numbers. He has six and four as 780 00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:24,840 Speaker 1: best case and two and eight as the worst. Case. 781 00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:27,680 Speaker 1: I couldn't go above five hundred, and I love them, 782 00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:30,000 Speaker 1: but I couldn't go about five hundred. Five and five 783 00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:32,600 Speaker 1: is my best case for them. Two and eight is 784 00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:35,560 Speaker 1: my worst case. How much gas is left in the tank, 785 00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:38,120 Speaker 1: that's the real question, because you gotta love the effort 786 00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:41,600 Speaker 1: you've seen so far. Guys, this is a long football season. 787 00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:43,920 Speaker 1: Even when you're only playing ten games, when they're all 788 00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:48,560 Speaker 1: conference games, it's November, seems like a year, and it's 789 00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:51,399 Speaker 1: gonna seem like a year. They have remaining on their 790 00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:55,640 Speaker 1: schedule at Texas A and M. That's this week, Tennessee 791 00:37:56,320 --> 00:38:02,799 Speaker 1: at Florida, LSU at Missouri Alabama. So they're sitting two 792 00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:05,040 Speaker 1: wins right now. I just flat out don't think they 793 00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:07,280 Speaker 1: can win for those games, even in the best of times. 794 00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:10,680 Speaker 1: Three maybe four, probably not. It's more realistic they're a 795 00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:13,440 Speaker 1: three or four win team. That's why I'm telling you 796 00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:17,520 Speaker 1: right now. Freeze your opinion of Sam Pittman, Freeze your 797 00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:21,560 Speaker 1: opinion of Kendallbrile's Bury, otom the new culture there, whatever 798 00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:25,359 Speaker 1: you think about them. Now that's great, that's great, and 799 00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:27,440 Speaker 1: I don't care if they don't win another game. You 800 00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:30,200 Speaker 1: need to freeze this opinion, and you need to just 801 00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:33,440 Speaker 1: put it in a capsule somewhere. Do not let whatever 802 00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:35,680 Speaker 1: happens the rest of the way. If it's positive, that's great. 803 00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:38,279 Speaker 1: But if things go off the rails just because they're 804 00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:41,920 Speaker 1: not deep enough and talented enough to sustain an entire year, whatever, 805 00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:45,799 Speaker 1: nothing's going to erase the shine for me about what 806 00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:50,080 Speaker 1: Sam Pittman has done there against literally all odds. We 807 00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:52,560 Speaker 1: got to work in Phil Collins references every now and then, 808 00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:56,239 Speaker 1: but against all odds, not the least of which being 809 00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:59,400 Speaker 1: the sec hitting them in the face with a bowling 810 00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:01,759 Speaker 1: ball schedule wise and then saying, oh, by the way, 811 00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:04,880 Speaker 1: once you are competitive in those games, we're taking the 812 00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:09,480 Speaker 1: win from you. Sorry, we'll pig So two to eight 813 00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:12,120 Speaker 1: was the preseason best case. They're already a two win team, 814 00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:14,600 Speaker 1: so congratulations there. We got to get to our added 815 00:39:14,640 --> 00:39:17,560 Speaker 1: best bet before we get out of here. We already 816 00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:20,920 Speaker 1: gave you the early best bet on Sunday night, so 817 00:39:21,520 --> 00:39:23,640 Speaker 1: I was going to give you two more tonight, but 818 00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:26,040 Speaker 1: I pumped the brakes on one. We're waiting on a number. 819 00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:27,839 Speaker 1: As soon as we get it, i'll fire it off. 820 00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:30,239 Speaker 1: You need to be following me on Twitter at late kick, Josh, 821 00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:32,120 Speaker 1: if you haven't already caused a lot of times we 822 00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:34,799 Speaker 1: hand them out there. In fact, today I handed out 823 00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:38,360 Speaker 1: our latest best bet there. It is Georgia Tech plus twenty. 824 00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:42,080 Speaker 1: They just got ripped by Boston College. Conversely, Notre Dame 825 00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:44,520 Speaker 1: ran it up big time on PITT. I think it 826 00:39:44,560 --> 00:39:46,360 Speaker 1: stretched the number a little bit further than it should 827 00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:49,680 Speaker 1: have been, So we're going to take Georgia Tech plus twenty. 828 00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:52,200 Speaker 1: We have that number down near fifteen, so we think 829 00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:55,400 Speaker 1: it's way too fat. You are paying a premium in 830 00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:57,600 Speaker 1: our humble opinion if you want to take Notre Dame 831 00:39:57,640 --> 00:40:00,239 Speaker 1: this week, if you're listening on the podcast and you 832 00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:03,280 Speaker 1: haven't heard earlier this week, Texas A and M minus 833 00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:06,240 Speaker 1: ten is our best bet, and then Georgia Tech plus twenty. 834 00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:09,400 Speaker 1: That's the latest on the Rama Noudle Express, which is 835 00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:12,080 Speaker 1: chugging along at a little bit over sixty one percent 836 00:40:12,160 --> 00:40:14,279 Speaker 1: right now. We are excited about that. And as I said, 837 00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:16,239 Speaker 1: follow me on Twitter so you don't miss any of 838 00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:18,880 Speaker 1: the picks that I hand out not only between shows, 839 00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:22,160 Speaker 1: but after the Thursday show sometimes. And speaking of Thursday, 840 00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:24,320 Speaker 1: that is the next time that we'll be live here. 841 00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:28,360 Speaker 1: Also in Between those shows, we have the Late Kick podcast. 842 00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:31,279 Speaker 1: Subscribe there and leave us a five star review if 843 00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:33,040 Speaker 1: you haven't already. And that's about all the voice I 844 00:40:33,080 --> 00:40:35,279 Speaker 1: have for today. So for director Colin, for Tani and 845 00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:37,680 Speaker 1: Jordan on the podcast side, I'm Josh Pate. Have a 846 00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:49,760 Speaker 1: great rest of your evening and God bless