WEBVTT - Week 6 NFL Game Breakdown with Gregg Rosenthal (Ep 220) 0:00:00.880 --> 0:00:04.559 Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. 0:00:04.640 --> 0:00:07.200 It is time for Week six of the NFL season. 0:00:07.200 --> 0:00:10.360 The time is just flying. Bahi, guys. I can't believe 0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:12.560 we are already five weeks in here. More over than that, 0:00:12.640 --> 0:00:15.080 I can't believe that my Jets are three and two. 0:00:15.160 --> 0:00:17.639 We don't get three wins until December. I'm feeling good 0:00:17.720 --> 0:00:19.840 right now, and I'm feeling great because we have a 0:00:19.840 --> 0:00:22.840 fantastic show for you guys today. Of course, as always 0:00:22.880 --> 0:00:26.200 here with me none other than the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman. 0:00:26.480 --> 0:00:29.440 And today we have a very very special guest with 0:00:29.520 --> 0:00:33.360 us from the Around the NFL podcast, Greg Rosenthal. Greg, 0:00:33.360 --> 0:00:34.839 thank you so much for being here. How are you 0:00:34.920 --> 0:00:35.400 doing today? 0:00:35.680 --> 0:00:36.440 I'm doing great. 0:00:36.440 --> 0:00:38.800 Although I can't seem to get away from Jets fan 0:00:39.000 --> 0:00:41.960 hosts of the podcast I'm doing today, That's true. 0:00:42.720 --> 0:00:45.280 Nope, you are stuck with us. We're everywhere. It's a 0:00:45.320 --> 0:00:47.360 miserable contingent that finally has somehow. 0:00:47.479 --> 0:00:50.360 Right now, they're feeling themselves. Y'all are into it, and 0:00:50.600 --> 0:00:52.440 I'm with you kind of. We'll put a pin in 0:00:52.479 --> 0:00:53.120 that for later. 0:00:53.560 --> 0:00:56.080 Yeah, we will be. As you know, this is the time, 0:00:56.280 --> 0:00:58.920 this is I know what's coming this week. We got 0:00:58.920 --> 0:01:03.720 Packers minus in this game, and this is absolutely we're 0:01:03.760 --> 0:01:06.120 gonna get right off the bat here, starting with that one, 0:01:06.240 --> 0:01:10.560 because last week I said, Miami Nonna, they're gonna take 0:01:10.640 --> 0:01:12.800 them down. Two good things can't happen to the Jets 0:01:12.800 --> 0:01:15.160 in a row. Sure enough, it did. But the only 0:01:15.200 --> 0:01:17.319 thing less likely to happen to the Jets is three 0:01:17.400 --> 0:01:19.720 good things in a row. I'm shocked that they have 0:01:19.720 --> 0:01:22.400 a team website because they can't string three ws together. 0:01:22.800 --> 0:01:25.800 And now you have this chance here as seven point 0:01:25.880 --> 0:01:27.560 dogs in this game, and I'm looking at it and 0:01:27.560 --> 0:01:30.640 I'm like, we should be competitive based on how we've 0:01:30.680 --> 0:01:32.560 played so far this season, we should be competitive in 0:01:32.600 --> 0:01:35.160 this one. And that means the bottom is about to 0:01:35.319 --> 0:01:38.080 fall out. Matt, what do you think in this game? 0:01:38.560 --> 0:01:40.520 Is it gonna be happening here in this spot or 0:01:40.520 --> 0:01:42.480 are they gonna be able to cover? Because if there's 0:01:42.480 --> 0:01:44.920 any team to be playing right now, it's the Packers. 0:01:44.959 --> 0:01:47.880 That overtime win over the Patriots with Bailey Zappi and 0:01:47.920 --> 0:01:51.080 then you'll lose outright to the Giants. They're not going 0:01:51.160 --> 0:01:53.240 Things are not going great in Green Bay right now. 0:01:53.760 --> 0:01:56.880 Yeah, A man as we talked about previously. I feel 0:01:56.880 --> 0:02:00.400 like I've been too high on the Packers up until 0:02:00.400 --> 0:02:02.320 this point in the season. And you know, I always 0:02:02.360 --> 0:02:05.760 try to sort of contextualize and explain a way why 0:02:05.760 --> 0:02:08.360 I haven't adjusted them down in my power ratings. It's like, well, 0:02:08.360 --> 0:02:11.040 they were missing their tackles, and they didn't have their 0:02:11.120 --> 0:02:13.600 number one receiver and their their top cornerback was out, 0:02:13.600 --> 0:02:16.040 you know, But like this is it like if they 0:02:16.080 --> 0:02:18.480 don't do well against the Jets, I need to stop 0:02:18.480 --> 0:02:20.920 making excuses for them. And I've I've already bumped them 0:02:20.919 --> 0:02:23.400 down to my power ratings, but this feels like a 0:02:24.400 --> 0:02:26.680 I don't know, a come down spot for the Jets 0:02:26.720 --> 0:02:30.200 and a bounce back spot for the Packers. And just 0:02:30.280 --> 0:02:33.440 you know, Aaron Rodgers off of a loss is forty 0:02:33.480 --> 0:02:36.320 twenty one and one against the spread. Aaron Rodgers at 0:02:36.400 --> 0:02:39.400 lambeau Field is sixty six, thirty five and three against 0:02:39.400 --> 0:02:42.880 the spread. Aaron Rodgers is a favorite is ninety seven, 0:02:43.000 --> 0:02:45.680 sixty six and three against the spread. Like he is 0:02:45.760 --> 0:02:49.959 just sort of like like in that triangulation of Aaron 0:02:50.000 --> 0:02:53.480 Rodgers sweet spots, And you know, I think a lot 0:02:53.480 --> 0:02:55.960 of this game does come down to Aaron Rodgers. But 0:02:56.560 --> 0:02:59.520 I think also it comes down to that Packers defense 0:02:59.600 --> 0:03:02.480 going to it's the Jets pass offense, which I think 0:03:02.520 --> 0:03:06.880 has overperformed. Like Zach Wilson has been somewhat mediocre for 0:03:06.960 --> 0:03:09.919 the Jets in his two starts, like he's been non horrible, 0:03:10.240 --> 0:03:12.639 which is an improvement from where he was last year. 0:03:13.000 --> 0:03:15.360 But I'm just I'm not buying it. I think the 0:03:15.400 --> 0:03:18.760 Packers have a clear advantage on defense against Wilson, at 0:03:18.840 --> 0:03:21.080 least that's what I'm seeing in our our Fantasy pros 0:03:21.160 --> 0:03:23.840 unit power rankings. I have Wilson as the number twenty 0:03:23.919 --> 0:03:28.359 six quarterback in the league. The Packers defense, it hasn't 0:03:28.639 --> 0:03:31.120 it hasn't played up to its potential, but I think 0:03:31.160 --> 0:03:33.639 it's still I have it as the number eight unit. 0:03:33.720 --> 0:03:37.080 I have the secondary is the number four secondary. 0:03:36.600 --> 0:03:39.200 In the league. 0:03:39.520 --> 0:03:44.680 On the players they have, and I know I've never played, 0:03:46.360 --> 0:03:48.760 I know they have. That's the thing, Like there's still 0:03:48.840 --> 0:03:52.080 priors built into this, Like they were a good unit 0:03:52.200 --> 0:03:54.040 last year. You figure that it's. 0:03:53.960 --> 0:03:54.440 Somewhere that. 0:03:56.240 --> 0:03:58.680 They weren't that good and they give up a lot 0:03:58.720 --> 0:04:01.080 on the ground, and I'm in with the Jets offense. 0:04:01.080 --> 0:04:03.880 The thing that really strikes me every week is how 0:04:03.920 --> 0:04:06.760 open guys are. It really looks like the forty nine 0:04:06.880 --> 0:04:11.640 ers offense. And I'm not a believer in Zach Wilson yet, 0:04:13.040 --> 0:04:15.200 but he's made a few plays in the last few 0:04:15.200 --> 0:04:17.719 weeks that's more impressive than anything he did as a rookie. 0:04:18.200 --> 0:04:20.839 I think he'll probably still kill you, and this could 0:04:20.839 --> 0:04:22.479 be one of the games that he will. He'll have 0:04:22.560 --> 0:04:25.320 some really down weeks, but guys are open, and it's 0:04:25.360 --> 0:04:26.880 like the guys are open like they are in the 0:04:26.880 --> 0:04:29.080 forty nine ers offense, except you have a quarterback who 0:04:29.080 --> 0:04:32.240 can throw a deep out and can create a little 0:04:33.080 --> 0:04:35.240 I think there are a talented team. Maybe I'm just 0:04:35.920 --> 0:04:39.320 doing too many podcasts with Dan hansis my host. He's 0:04:39.360 --> 0:04:41.279 convinced me I don't think these two teams are that 0:04:41.520 --> 0:04:44.840 different talent wise. And so seven or seven and a 0:04:44.839 --> 0:04:47.120 half feels feels like a lot like I wouldn't trust 0:04:47.120 --> 0:04:49.200 the Jets to win, but it just feels like it'll 0:04:49.240 --> 0:04:50.800 come down to the end and that the Jets will 0:04:50.839 --> 0:04:53.000 run the ball and kind of keep it close that way. 0:04:53.080 --> 0:04:57.000 Okay, it feels like a lot in that if you 0:04:57.080 --> 0:05:01.960 focus on only what's happened this year. Yeah, but with 0:05:02.080 --> 0:05:04.800 you this year, if you but if you take into 0:05:04.800 --> 0:05:07.760 account that one of these guys is Aaron Rodgers and 0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:11.440 one of them definitely is not in that the Jets 0:05:11.520 --> 0:05:15.159 last year were horrible and the Packers last year were 0:05:15.200 --> 0:05:18.680 really good, and we should still take that fact into account. 0:05:19.480 --> 0:05:20.400 I just think in. 0:05:20.600 --> 0:05:23.240 This game fit seven points. If it was just off 0:05:23.240 --> 0:05:25.400 this year, I feel like it'd be three or so. 0:05:25.600 --> 0:05:28.280 The Packers offense, though, has been getting better each and 0:05:28.320 --> 0:05:30.640 every week. So that's actually more of my concern if 0:05:30.680 --> 0:05:33.200 you were back in the Jets, is that I think 0:05:33.240 --> 0:05:35.960 the Packers' offense, their struggles have been a little overstated. 0:05:36.000 --> 0:05:37.200 It's a really good running game. 0:05:37.240 --> 0:05:40.039 The passing games can get better every week, and it 0:05:40.040 --> 0:05:42.480 wouldn't surprise me if they put thirty up in this 0:05:42.560 --> 0:05:44.480 game and then and then you're chasing a lot of 0:05:44.520 --> 0:05:45.480 points the Jets. 0:05:45.520 --> 0:05:47.880 So one more thing, one more thing in this Like 0:05:47.960 --> 0:05:50.520 the Jets offensive line is really banged up, and I 0:05:50.560 --> 0:05:52.799 know that they got Dwayne Brown back, but they're still 0:05:52.880 --> 0:05:57.479 without McKai Beckton, George Fant, Max Mitchell. I think that 0:05:57.600 --> 0:06:00.440 Zach Wilson is going to be under heavy pressure. Shawn 0:06:00.480 --> 0:06:04.520 gary In, Presntsmith so I think that will keep the 0:06:04.520 --> 0:06:07.120 the sort of forty nine Ers style of offense from 0:06:07.200 --> 0:06:08.880 functioning that full capacity. 0:06:10.120 --> 0:06:12.200 I will say there, it is certainly not hard to 0:06:12.279 --> 0:06:14.080 draw the connections as to why they look like the 0:06:14.080 --> 0:06:18.000 forty nine Ers offense. But I the way I see it, 0:06:18.040 --> 0:06:20.880 I'm looking at the Patriots and how they were able 0:06:20.880 --> 0:06:23.840 to just Romandre Stevenson and Damian Harris their way into 0:06:23.880 --> 0:06:26.800 overtime in that game. And then the next week you 0:06:26.839 --> 0:06:29.599 have the Giants. Saquon Barkley. You can lean heavily on 0:06:29.680 --> 0:06:31.640 him with a GIMPI mac Jones because this team is 0:06:31.720 --> 0:06:38.080 thirtieth in rush dvoa on defense, Michael, They're bad against 0:06:38.080 --> 0:06:39.520 the run, and you know the Jets are gonna want 0:06:39.520 --> 0:06:42.520 to run the football. That's how they're gonna help protect 0:06:42.600 --> 0:06:45.920 Zach Wilson. Again, I am going into this game fully 0:06:46.000 --> 0:06:48.080 knowing what is going to happen. I already have the 0:06:48.120 --> 0:06:49.880 final score in front of me, and it is the 0:06:50.200 --> 0:06:52.520 It is simply the fact that I will bet on 0:06:52.560 --> 0:06:54.599 the Jets this week because I will tell myself that 0:06:54.680 --> 0:06:56.719 seven points is too many with a Packers team that 0:06:56.760 --> 0:06:59.560 can't cover to save their lives and is significantly down 0:06:59.560 --> 0:07:01.600 from Land year and they were about to blow the 0:07:01.680 --> 0:07:03.800 Jets out by forty. I know it's coming, and I'm 0:07:03.880 --> 0:07:05.120 still gonna bet on the Jets in this. 0:07:06.240 --> 0:07:08.000 Yeah, I don't know. I don't think the Jets can 0:07:08.080 --> 0:07:09.800 run the way that the Patriots can run, in the 0:07:09.800 --> 0:07:11.360 way that Saguon Barkley can run. 0:07:12.160 --> 0:07:15.200 That's fair. Although brisall look good. Michael Carter is a 0:07:15.200 --> 0:07:18.680 good back, they don't have the same line. But at 0:07:18.720 --> 0:07:23.960 some point, I hear you on the historical trends. At 0:07:23.960 --> 0:07:26.560 some point, I feel like you gotta start seeing it 0:07:27.080 --> 0:07:29.600 this year, and I think their offense has shown that. 0:07:29.720 --> 0:07:34.040 But to me, show me the impressive Packers game this year, 0:07:34.600 --> 0:07:36.920 I guess the Bears game and even then. 0:07:36.800 --> 0:07:39.200 That that wasn't a game that was one quarter. 0:07:39.680 --> 0:07:41.520 Yeah, well, and that they did they did what they 0:07:41.520 --> 0:07:42.960 had to do, and that was week two. But we're 0:07:43.040 --> 0:07:46.200 we're three weeks in a row here of just like okay, 0:07:46.400 --> 0:07:50.040 and I just don't see their defense as a particularly 0:07:50.080 --> 0:07:52.720 cohesive unit. They're always pointing at each other. You're like, 0:07:52.720 --> 0:07:55.520 oh what happened. They're not a complicated defense at all. 0:07:56.440 --> 0:07:58.360 They're just sort of a basic, like we're going to 0:07:58.400 --> 0:08:00.360 play you, straight up defense and yet they make a 0:08:00.400 --> 0:08:03.480 lot of mental mistakes and I think you can kind 0:08:03.480 --> 0:08:07.080 of out physical them, to use a terrible football term. 0:08:07.360 --> 0:08:10.440 So I just don't trust the defense as heavy favorites 0:08:10.440 --> 0:08:11.200 in any situation. 0:08:11.560 --> 0:08:13.840 All that is fair. Just one final item on this, 0:08:14.040 --> 0:08:17.840 like show me the impressive when Like I was impressed 0:08:17.840 --> 0:08:20.480 with him going on the road to Tampa Bay and 0:08:20.520 --> 0:08:21.640 winning that game. 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:24.600 Right, but Tampa was missing their top three receivers that day. 0:08:24.640 --> 0:08:27.880 It was defensively at least, it was a weird game. 0:08:27.920 --> 0:08:31.720 That was also the first game they were without Donovan Smith. 0:08:31.760 --> 0:08:33.440 Now that you know they've tried to adjust, it was 0:08:33.480 --> 0:08:34.720 just there was a lot going on this It's a 0:08:34.760 --> 0:08:35.240 weird game. 0:08:35.320 --> 0:08:37.280 It was a weird game. But winning on the road 0:08:37.360 --> 0:08:40.480 in that situation, like, I still think that was impressive. 0:08:41.880 --> 0:08:43.760 I just want to acknowledge the fact that we were 0:08:43.800 --> 0:08:46.120 in Week five of a week six now of an 0:08:46.240 --> 0:08:49.280 NFL season in the year twenty twenty two, and we're 0:08:49.320 --> 0:08:52.440 talking about the Jets potentially being on the same talent 0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:54.320 level as the Packers. This is what I wanted to 0:08:54.360 --> 0:08:57.320 see from this team. There is a trend upwards. It 0:08:57.400 --> 0:09:00.000 might be slight, but it is something. This is more 0:09:00.160 --> 0:09:02.640 hope that I've had in a decade with this team 0:09:02.720 --> 0:09:05.040 right now. But let's move on to another team that 0:09:05.520 --> 0:09:07.920 actually kind of had some hope going into maybe not 0:09:07.960 --> 0:09:10.000 going into this season, but after the first couple of weeks, 0:09:10.280 --> 0:09:12.640 started off real strong and now have slipped the last 0:09:12.640 --> 0:09:16.160 two games. The Jags going up against the Colts in 0:09:16.200 --> 0:09:19.280 this one. They're two point two and a half to 0:09:19.520 --> 0:09:23.920 two point dogs in Indy, where they have they have 0:09:24.040 --> 0:09:26.040 owned the Colts in the past couple of times that 0:09:26.080 --> 0:09:28.199 we've seen these two teams play. We saw it earlier 0:09:28.200 --> 0:09:31.040 this season already. This is an early second matchup. But 0:09:31.920 --> 0:09:33.760 what do you guys make of the Jags. Is this 0:09:33.800 --> 0:09:36.280 a team that maybe had a strong start and that 0:09:36.400 --> 0:09:37.880 was a little bit of a mirage or are you 0:09:37.960 --> 0:09:41.120 saying they lost to the Eagles? Everybody so far has 0:09:41.160 --> 0:09:43.720 done that this year. It was a monsoon and then 0:09:43.760 --> 0:09:46.720 the Texans game that to me, you can make the 0:09:46.720 --> 0:09:48.720 case that that's just one of those weird divisional games. 0:09:48.760 --> 0:09:51.200 They haven't beaten the Texans in four years. That's eight 0:09:51.240 --> 0:09:55.160 matchups right there now, nine and it's just those divisional 0:09:55.160 --> 0:09:57.520 opponents that have your numbers sometimes, like how we always 0:09:57.520 --> 0:09:59.560 see the Cardinals play the forty nine ers tough and 0:09:59.559 --> 0:10:01.839 the forty niners and Rams. Is that the case or 0:10:01.920 --> 0:10:04.000 is Jacksonville You're going, okay, we need to all pump 0:10:04.080 --> 0:10:05.400 the brakes on what we saw from this team in 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:06.200 the first couple of weeks. 0:10:06.240 --> 0:10:10.719 Greg, I think offensively, you should pump the brakes. Lawrence 0:10:11.160 --> 0:10:14.560 is a little erratic with his accuracy. I don't think 0:10:14.559 --> 0:10:17.239 they have receivers that can really win on the outside, 0:10:17.320 --> 0:10:20.160 Like everything's over the middle of the field, so I 0:10:20.200 --> 0:10:22.199 think they're a little limited there. But it's a good 0:10:22.240 --> 0:10:25.040 running game. It's an okay offensive line. I just think 0:10:25.040 --> 0:10:28.280 that kind of caps their ceiling as like a top ten, 0:10:28.840 --> 0:10:30.920 you know, really dangerous type of team. But I love 0:10:30.960 --> 0:10:32.800 them in this game. I mean, this would be one 0:10:32.800 --> 0:10:38.960 of my favorite picks because I think the attributes that 0:10:39.000 --> 0:10:42.320 helped them embarrass the Colts last year in Week eighteen 0:10:42.520 --> 0:10:46.000 and then shut them out five weeks ago are still there. 0:10:46.320 --> 0:10:49.839 And it's basically their defensive line is the best group 0:10:49.840 --> 0:10:52.280 in the game, and that the Colts offensive line is 0:10:52.320 --> 0:10:55.000 a total mess. And yes, the Colts do have two 0:10:55.040 --> 0:10:57.480 receivers back in this game that they didn't have in 0:10:57.520 --> 0:10:59.520 Week two. Pittman and Pierce are their top two receivers, 0:10:59.640 --> 0:11:02.080 they'll be competitive, but at no point in the last 0:11:02.080 --> 0:11:04.440 four weeks of the Colts really graduated to me from 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:08.439 anything but the number thirty you know, thirty one offense 0:11:08.480 --> 0:11:10.640 in the league, number thirty two, So to me that 0:11:10.760 --> 0:11:13.040 it's a mismatch there. And like I like the Jags 0:11:13.080 --> 0:11:15.720 defense a lot better than the Colts offense. It's enough 0:11:15.760 --> 0:11:18.959 to believe, like there's a reason they've destroyed them the 0:11:19.040 --> 0:11:21.040 last two times. I think they're a better team. I 0:11:21.040 --> 0:11:23.320 think they match up well, and I would take them. 0:11:24.559 --> 0:11:25.360 Now, what do you think? 0:11:26.360 --> 0:11:30.640 Yeah, I have like a slight lean towards Indy in 0:11:30.720 --> 0:11:33.400 my projections, but like there's no way I'm actually betting 0:11:33.440 --> 0:11:37.040 it because I feel like I feel I haven't adjusted 0:11:37.080 --> 0:11:40.760 them down enough in my power ratings and I know that, 0:11:40.920 --> 0:11:43.560 and like to Greg's point, I think that matchup in 0:11:43.640 --> 0:11:46.719 the trenches really does benefit the Jags. Like I've been 0:11:46.720 --> 0:11:50.160 impressed with their defensive line, and more importantly, I've been 0:11:50.240 --> 0:11:53.400 horrified by the Colts offensive line, which used to be 0:11:53.440 --> 0:11:55.880 like one of the real strengths of that team and 0:11:55.920 --> 0:12:00.160 then now is just it's in fire. So I don't 0:12:00.000 --> 0:12:02.880 don't want any part of backing the colts here. 0:12:04.520 --> 0:12:07.040 Matt, you don't have to answer this truthfully, but who 0:12:07.080 --> 0:12:08.240 is older you or Matt Ryan? 0:12:09.360 --> 0:12:09.920 Uh Me? 0:12:10.200 --> 0:12:10.880 Definitely me. 0:12:11.160 --> 0:12:11.480 I was. 0:12:12.000 --> 0:12:15.120 Yeah, I was at BC when Ryan was there, and 0:12:15.240 --> 0:12:21.320 actually yeah, so he he he had like friends who 0:12:21.360 --> 0:12:25.600 lived in the same apartment building linemen. Some of his 0:12:25.720 --> 0:12:28.280 linemen lived in the apartment that was right above the 0:12:28.280 --> 0:12:31.920 one that Eden and I had together, And on Saturday nights, 0:12:32.200 --> 0:12:33.960 they would go in there and they would play like 0:12:34.240 --> 0:12:37.040 the like rock Star, like you remember that game. Yeah, 0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:39.720 So they would be playing rock Star till like four 0:12:39.800 --> 0:12:42.600 in the morning, and Matt Ryan would be up there 0:12:42.840 --> 0:12:46.240 hanging out with them, and like I didn't I didn't 0:12:46.280 --> 0:12:48.600 want to go knock on the door and be like, hey, 0:12:48.720 --> 0:12:51.080 you know you guys, can you sort of like kill it, 0:12:51.200 --> 0:12:54.040 like just you know, I'm trying to sleep. So Eden 0:12:54.080 --> 0:12:56.440 would go do it. So like that's my that's my 0:12:56.520 --> 0:12:58.920 impression or not my impression, but like that that. 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:00.720 On a game night. Was he play in the next 0:13:00.800 --> 0:13:01.840 night the next day? 0:13:02.200 --> 0:13:05.319 No, this would be after after the game, so it 0:13:05.360 --> 0:13:08.559 would be like games on Saturday, and then Saturday night 0:13:08.600 --> 0:13:10.920 they would be partying in the apartment above us. 0:13:11.720 --> 0:13:13.880 I love how you would just send your now wife 0:13:13.920 --> 0:13:17.240 who for the audience, this is not a physical you 0:13:17.240 --> 0:13:21.800 would not describe etan as physically intimidating in stature, and 0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:23.719 you're sending up there there. 0:13:25.160 --> 0:13:28.040 She would will willingly go up there on her own. 0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:30.520 But that should be you Stephan up there. But I 0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:34.640 asked the question is could you honestly say that you 0:13:34.720 --> 0:13:37.560 would fare that much worse at quarterback right now than 0:13:37.559 --> 0:13:40.480 what's going on in Indy? The is this is just 0:13:41.280 --> 0:13:43.480 this is just bad right now. This is now the 0:13:43.480 --> 0:13:44.839 place where quarterbacks go to die. 0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:48.800 Honestly, this is surprising because, uh, I mean, I thought 0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:52.400 Ryan still had something left after last year, and he 0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:55.320 didn't look bad in the preseason, Like he didn't look great, 0:13:55.320 --> 0:13:57.080 but he didn't. He didn't look bad. He looked like 0:13:57.240 --> 0:14:00.400 sort of Philip Rivers level competent. And that's where I 0:14:00.440 --> 0:14:02.640 thought we would see within this offense, and we haven't 0:14:02.640 --> 0:14:03.360 gotten that at all. 0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:04.320 Now. 0:14:04.800 --> 0:14:08.520 If he was in a different situation, yeah he'd look different, 0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:11.880 but he's the last quarterback you want right now with 0:14:11.920 --> 0:14:14.440 that offensive line. And Tony Romo was pretty strong on 0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:16.400 that point in the in the game that they upset 0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:20.280 the Chiefs of Like, yeah, yeah, he's a veteran in everything, 0:14:20.360 --> 0:14:24.560 but it's like hard sledting him picking up this offense 0:14:24.760 --> 0:14:26.560 and like getting on the same page in terms of 0:14:26.600 --> 0:14:29.320 protection with his offensive line and things like that, making 0:14:29.360 --> 0:14:31.600 pre snap calls and who. 0:14:31.360 --> 0:14:33.520 Knows that might be a coaching thing, that might just be. 0:14:33.760 --> 0:14:37.040 It's a tough fit. But you haven't seen any upswing. 0:14:37.240 --> 0:14:40.560 That's why I hear you on a stay away and look, 0:14:40.720 --> 0:14:44.520 Vegas has not adjusted the Colts down too much either. 0:14:44.920 --> 0:14:50.040 Generally each week there, I'm surprised how they're either favored 0:14:50.360 --> 0:14:52.160 or close to being favored in these games. So that 0:14:52.480 --> 0:14:55.000 surprises me because this season it seems pretty. 0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:56.320 Clear to me the Jaggers they're a better team. 0:14:56.600 --> 0:14:57.240 Yeah. 0:14:57.560 --> 0:14:59.400 Yeah, there's a lot of that bias that people still 0:14:59.400 --> 0:15:02.280 aren't quite ready to get rid of. Guys, real quick, 0:15:02.280 --> 0:15:04.480 I want to talk to you about Sleeper. Sleeper is 0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:07.600 the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions of players. 0:15:07.840 --> 0:15:10.240 You probably already have a fantasy league on there. My 0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:12.960 friends and I changed over this year and I absolutely 0:15:13.040 --> 0:15:16.240 love it. It's a game changing product unlike anything else 0:15:16.240 --> 0:15:19.440 in the industry. And now you can win on Sleeper 0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:23.320 by playing their new over undergame it's super simple. 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You know we have a couple games 0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:19.960 here with some quarterback controversies that are starting to brew 0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:23.400 that really shouldn't be controversies yet, and yet I feel 0:16:23.400 --> 0:16:25.840 like we're all just bored, and so we're talking about them. 0:16:26.200 --> 0:16:29.560 But all of a sudden, here Bailey, Zappy and Mac Jones, 0:16:30.000 --> 0:16:32.240 same as the Dak Prescott Cooper rush thing, you know, 0:16:32.280 --> 0:16:35.280 the actual answer. But then you're looking at what we've 0:16:35.280 --> 0:16:37.760 seen the last couple of weeks now, and you're starting 0:16:37.800 --> 0:16:40.360 to hear some of those people saying, oh, hey, maybe 0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:43.120 Mac Jones isn't it, and maybe they should be riding 0:16:43.160 --> 0:16:45.720 with ZAPPI I don't think that's the case at all. 0:16:46.000 --> 0:16:48.880 But they are three point dogs going into Cleveland here. 0:16:49.320 --> 0:16:52.320 And while I'm no longer giving Bill Belichick the benefit 0:16:52.360 --> 0:16:54.160 of the doubt where I'm saying, oh, it's Belichick, he'll 0:16:54.200 --> 0:16:57.360 figure it out, but I don't trust this Browns team 0:16:57.360 --> 0:16:59.360 at all. It still goes against my core philosophy of 0:16:59.400 --> 0:17:01.960 betting football, which is, don't bet on teams with an 0:17:01.960 --> 0:17:05.080 elf on their fifty yard line. And I just don't 0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:07.399 think this Browns team is as good as the stats 0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:08.800 are kind of saying it easy. If you look at 0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:12.080 their DVA their offensive DVOA is way more impressive than 0:17:12.119 --> 0:17:13.639 the eye test would lead you to believe, and I 0:17:13.640 --> 0:17:16.760 think that's heavily Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt here, what 0:17:16.840 --> 0:17:18.040 do you think about this game? 0:17:18.119 --> 0:17:22.199 Matt, Yeah, I'm on the Patriots in this spot. Totally 0:17:22.240 --> 0:17:26.959 appealing to Greg's homerism here with this pick. But Kevin Stefanski, 0:17:27.000 --> 0:17:29.480 he's eight and sixteen against the spread as a favorite, 0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:33.240 and like that. I feel like that actually makes sense, 0:17:33.720 --> 0:17:36.399 Like when his team is in a situation to play 0:17:36.400 --> 0:17:39.040 with the lead or like they should be winning a game, 0:17:39.440 --> 0:17:43.240 they play much more conservatively and that allows teams to 0:17:43.240 --> 0:17:46.639 get the back door recover. And I think this is 0:17:46.640 --> 0:17:50.480 a game where given the run defense, the horrible run 0:17:50.560 --> 0:17:54.200 defense of the of the Browns, we see Ramandre Stevenson 0:17:54.600 --> 0:17:57.399 just totally dominate and both teams are really going to 0:17:57.440 --> 0:17:59.520 want to run the ball. But the Browns have the 0:17:59.560 --> 0:18:02.159 worst rush defense out of this matchup because they have 0:18:02.200 --> 0:18:04.600 the league's worst rush defense, you know, like thirty two 0:18:04.680 --> 0:18:07.800 in rush EPA, thirty two in rush DVA thirty two 0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:10.800 and adjusted lineyards And you know, I know, no Damien 0:18:10.840 --> 0:18:13.080 Harrison this game. I don't think it's going to matter. 0:18:13.119 --> 0:18:16.040 I think that just means more of Remandree Stephenson, who 0:18:16.200 --> 0:18:19.200 might actually be the better back anyway. I think he's 0:18:19.240 --> 0:18:21.760 maybe the more complete back. He's the more bruising back, 0:18:22.400 --> 0:18:24.119 you know, even though he's a big guy, he's still 0:18:24.240 --> 0:18:25.679 you know, has a three down skill set. He can 0:18:25.720 --> 0:18:28.520 still catch the ball pretty well. So and by the way, 0:18:28.560 --> 0:18:32.240 the Browns are number twenty eight in defensive DVA against 0:18:32.320 --> 0:18:36.240 running backs like through the air, So I think whether 0:18:36.280 --> 0:18:38.639 it's Stevenson on the ground or as a receiver on 0:18:38.800 --> 0:18:42.760 checkdown passes, I think he's going to dominate. So with 0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:45.680 the Patriots relying more on the ground game, I think 0:18:45.720 --> 0:18:48.320