Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.
Speaker 1: It is time for Week six of the NFL season.
Speaker 1: The time is just flying. Bahi, guys. I can't believe
Speaker 1: we are already five weeks in here. More over than that,
Speaker 1: I can't believe that my Jets are three and two.
Speaker 1: We don't get three wins until December. I'm feeling good
Speaker 1: right now, and I'm feeling great because we have a
Speaker 1: fantastic show for you guys today. Of course, as always
Speaker 1: here with me none other than the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman.
Speaker 1: And today we have a very very special guest with
Speaker 1: us from the Around the NFL podcast, Greg Rosenthal. Greg,
Speaker 1: thank you so much for being here. How are you
Speaker 1: doing today?
Speaker 2: I'm doing great.
Speaker 3: Although I can't seem to get away from Jets fan
Speaker 3: hosts of the podcast I'm doing today, That's true.
Speaker 1: Nope, you are stuck with us. We're everywhere. It's a
Speaker 1: miserable contingent that finally has somehow.
Speaker 3: Right now, they're feeling themselves. Y'all are into it, and
Speaker 3: I'm with you kind of. We'll put a pin in
Speaker 3: that for later.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we will be. As you know, this is the time,
Speaker 1: this is I know what's coming this week. We got
Speaker 1: Packers minus in this game, and this is absolutely we're
Speaker 1: gonna get right off the bat here, starting with that one,
Speaker 1: because last week I said, Miami Nonna, they're gonna take
Speaker 1: them down. Two good things can't happen to the Jets
Speaker 1: in a row. Sure enough, it did. But the only
Speaker 1: thing less likely to happen to the Jets is three
Speaker 1: good things in a row. I'm shocked that they have
Speaker 1: a team website because they can't string three ws together.
Speaker 1: And now you have this chance here as seven point
Speaker 1: dogs in this game, and I'm looking at it and
Speaker 1: I'm like, we should be competitive based on how we've
Speaker 1: played so far this season, we should be competitive in
Speaker 1: this one. And that means the bottom is about to
Speaker 1: fall out. Matt, what do you think in this game?
Speaker 1: Is it gonna be happening here in this spot or
Speaker 1: are they gonna be able to cover? Because if there's
Speaker 1: any team to be playing right now, it's the Packers.
Speaker 1: That overtime win over the Patriots with Bailey Zappi and
Speaker 1: then you'll lose outright to the Giants. They're not going
Speaker 1: Things are not going great in Green Bay right now.
Speaker 4: Yeah, A man as we talked about previously. I feel
Speaker 4: like I've been too high on the Packers up until
Speaker 4: this point in the season. And you know, I always
Speaker 4: try to sort of contextualize and explain a way why
Speaker 4: I haven't adjusted them down in my power ratings. It's like, well,
Speaker 4: they were missing their tackles, and they didn't have their
Speaker 4: number one receiver and their their top cornerback was out,
Speaker 4: you know, But like this is it like if they
Speaker 4: don't do well against the Jets, I need to stop
Speaker 4: making excuses for them. And I've I've already bumped them
Speaker 4: down to my power ratings, but this feels like a
Speaker 4: I don't know, a come down spot for the Jets
Speaker 4: and a bounce back spot for the Packers. And just
Speaker 4: you know, Aaron Rodgers off of a loss is forty
Speaker 4: twenty one and one against the spread. Aaron Rodgers at
Speaker 4: lambeau Field is sixty six, thirty five and three against
Speaker 4: the spread. Aaron Rodgers is a favorite is ninety seven,
Speaker 4: sixty six and three against the spread. Like he is
Speaker 4: just sort of like like in that triangulation of Aaron
Speaker 4: Rodgers sweet spots, And you know, I think a lot
Speaker 4: of this game does come down to Aaron Rodgers. But
Speaker 4: I think also it comes down to that Packers defense
Speaker 4: going to it's the Jets pass offense, which I think
Speaker 4: has overperformed. Like Zach Wilson has been somewhat mediocre for
Speaker 4: the Jets in his two starts, like he's been non horrible,
Speaker 4: which is an improvement from where he was last year.
Speaker 4: But I'm just I'm not buying it. I think the
Speaker 4: Packers have a clear advantage on defense against Wilson, at
Speaker 4: least that's what I'm seeing in our our Fantasy pros
Speaker 4: unit power rankings. I have Wilson as the number twenty
Speaker 4: six quarterback in the league. The Packers defense, it hasn't
Speaker 4: it hasn't played up to its potential, but I think
Speaker 4: it's still I have it as the number eight unit.
Speaker 4: I have the secondary is the number four secondary.
Speaker 2: In the league.
Speaker 4: On the players they have, and I know I've never played,
Speaker 4: I know they have. That's the thing, Like there's still
Speaker 4: priors built into this, Like they were a good unit
Speaker 4: last year. You figure that it's.
Speaker 2: Somewhere that.
Speaker 3: They weren't that good and they give up a lot
Speaker 3: on the ground, and I'm in with the Jets offense.
Speaker 3: The thing that really strikes me every week is how
Speaker 3: open guys are. It really looks like the forty nine
Speaker 3: ers offense. And I'm not a believer in Zach Wilson yet,
Speaker 3: but he's made a few plays in the last few
Speaker 3: weeks that's more impressive than anything he did as a rookie.
Speaker 3: I think he'll probably still kill you, and this could
Speaker 3: be one of the games that he will. He'll have
Speaker 3: some really down weeks, but guys are open, and it's
Speaker 3: like the guys are open like they are in the
Speaker 3: forty nine ers offense, except you have a quarterback who
Speaker 3: can throw a deep out and can create a little
Speaker 3: I think there are a talented team. Maybe I'm just
Speaker 3: doing too many podcasts with Dan hansis my host. He's
Speaker 3: convinced me I don't think these two teams are that
Speaker 3: different talent wise. And so seven or seven and a
Speaker 3: half feels feels like a lot like I wouldn't trust
Speaker 3: the Jets to win, but it just feels like it'll
Speaker 3: come down to the end and that the Jets will
Speaker 3: run the ball and kind of keep it close that way.
Speaker 4: Okay, it feels like a lot in that if you
Speaker 4: focus on only what's happened this year. Yeah, but with
Speaker 4: you this year, if you but if you take into
Speaker 4: account that one of these guys is Aaron Rodgers and
Speaker 4: one of them definitely is not in that the Jets
Speaker 4: last year were horrible and the Packers last year were
Speaker 4: really good, and we should still take that fact into account.
Speaker 4: I just think in.
Speaker 3: This game fit seven points. If it was just off
Speaker 3: this year, I feel like it'd be three or so.
Speaker 3: The Packers offense, though, has been getting better each and
Speaker 3: every week. So that's actually more of my concern if
Speaker 3: you were back in the Jets, is that I think
Speaker 3: the Packers' offense, their struggles have been a little overstated.
Speaker 2: It's a really good running game.
Speaker 3: The passing games can get better every week, and it
Speaker 3: wouldn't surprise me if they put thirty up in this
Speaker 3: game and then and then you're chasing a lot of
Speaker 3: points the Jets.
Speaker 4: So one more thing, one more thing in this Like
Speaker 4: the Jets offensive line is really banged up, and I
Speaker 4: know that they got Dwayne Brown back, but they're still
Speaker 4: without McKai Beckton, George Fant, Max Mitchell. I think that
Speaker 4: Zach Wilson is going to be under heavy pressure. Shawn
Speaker 4: gary In, Presntsmith so I think that will keep the
Speaker 4: the sort of forty nine Ers style of offense from
Speaker 4: functioning that full capacity.
Speaker 1: I will say there, it is certainly not hard to
Speaker 1: draw the connections as to why they look like the
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers offense. But I the way I see it,
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the Patriots and how they were able
Speaker 1: to just Romandre Stevenson and Damian Harris their way into
Speaker 1: overtime in that game. And then the next week you
Speaker 1: have the Giants. Saquon Barkley. You can lean heavily on
Speaker 1: him with a GIMPI mac Jones because this team is
Speaker 1: thirtieth in rush dvoa on defense, Michael, They're bad against
Speaker 1: the run, and you know the Jets are gonna want
Speaker 1: to run the football. That's how they're gonna help protect
Speaker 1: Zach Wilson. Again, I am going into this game fully
Speaker 1: knowing what is going to happen. I already have the
Speaker 1: final score in front of me, and it is the
Speaker 1: It is simply the fact that I will bet on
Speaker 1: the Jets this week because I will tell myself that
Speaker 1: seven points is too many with a Packers team that
Speaker 1: can't cover to save their lives and is significantly down
Speaker 1: from Land year and they were about to blow the
Speaker 1: Jets out by forty. I know it's coming, and I'm
Speaker 1: still gonna bet on the Jets in this.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't know. I don't think the Jets can
Speaker 4: run the way that the Patriots can run, in the
Speaker 4: way that Saguon Barkley can run.
Speaker 3: That's fair. Although brisall look good. Michael Carter is a
Speaker 3: good back, they don't have the same line. But at
Speaker 3: some point, I hear you on the historical trends. At
Speaker 3: some point, I feel like you gotta start seeing it
Speaker 3: this year, and I think their offense has shown that.
Speaker 3: But to me, show me the impressive Packers game this year,
Speaker 3: I guess the Bears game and even then.
Speaker 1: That that wasn't a game that was one quarter.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, and that they did they did what they
Speaker 3: had to do, and that was week two. But we're
Speaker 3: we're three weeks in a row here of just like okay,
Speaker 3: and I just don't see their defense as a particularly
Speaker 3: cohesive unit. They're always pointing at each other. You're like,
Speaker 3: oh what happened. They're not a complicated defense at all.
Speaker 3: They're just sort of a basic, like we're going to
Speaker 3: play you, straight up defense and yet they make a
Speaker 3: lot of mental mistakes and I think you can kind
Speaker 3: of out physical them, to use a terrible football term.
Speaker 3: So I just don't trust the defense as heavy favorites
Speaker 3: in any situation.
Speaker 4: All that is fair. Just one final item on this,
Speaker 4: like show me the impressive when Like I was impressed
Speaker 4: with him going on the road to Tampa Bay and
Speaker 4: winning that game.
Speaker 3: Right, but Tampa was missing their top three receivers that day.
Speaker 3: It was defensively at least, it was a weird game.
Speaker 3: That was also the first game they were without Donovan Smith.
Speaker 3: Now that you know they've tried to adjust, it was
Speaker 3: just there was a lot going on this It's a
Speaker 3: weird game.
Speaker 4: It was a weird game. But winning on the road
Speaker 4: in that situation, like, I still think that was impressive.
Speaker 1: I just want to acknowledge the fact that we were
Speaker 1: in Week five of a week six now of an
Speaker 1: NFL season in the year twenty twenty two, and we're
Speaker 1: talking about the Jets potentially being on the same talent
Speaker 1: level as the Packers. This is what I wanted to
Speaker 1: see from this team. There is a trend upwards. It
Speaker 1: might be slight, but it is something. This is more
Speaker 1: hope that I've had in a decade with this team
Speaker 1: right now. But let's move on to another team that
Speaker 1: actually kind of had some hope going into maybe not
Speaker 1: going into this season, but after the first couple of weeks,
Speaker 1: started off real strong and now have slipped the last
Speaker 1: two games. The Jags going up against the Colts in
Speaker 1: this one. They're two point two and a half to
Speaker 1: two point dogs in Indy, where they have they have
Speaker 1: owned the Colts in the past couple of times that
Speaker 1: we've seen these two teams play. We saw it earlier
Speaker 1: this season already. This is an early second matchup. But
Speaker 1: what do you guys make of the Jags. Is this
Speaker 1: a team that maybe had a strong start and that
Speaker 1: was a little bit of a mirage or are you
Speaker 1: saying they lost to the Eagles? Everybody so far has
Speaker 1: done that this year. It was a monsoon and then
Speaker 1: the Texans game that to me, you can make the
Speaker 1: case that that's just one of those weird divisional games.
Speaker 1: They haven't beaten the Texans in four years. That's eight
Speaker 1: matchups right there now, nine and it's just those divisional
Speaker 1: opponents that have your numbers sometimes, like how we always
Speaker 1: see the Cardinals play the forty nine ers tough and
Speaker 1: the forty niners and Rams. Is that the case or
Speaker 1: is Jacksonville You're going, okay, we need to all pump
Speaker 1: the brakes on what we saw from this team in
Speaker 1: the first couple of weeks.
Speaker 3: Greg, I think offensively, you should pump the brakes. Lawrence
Speaker 3: is a little erratic with his accuracy. I don't think
Speaker 3: they have receivers that can really win on the outside,
Speaker 3: Like everything's over the middle of the field, so I
Speaker 3: think they're a little limited there. But it's a good
Speaker 3: running game. It's an okay offensive line. I just think
Speaker 3: that kind of caps their ceiling as like a top ten,
Speaker 3: you know, really dangerous type of team. But I love
Speaker 3: them in this game. I mean, this would be one
Speaker 3: of my favorite picks because I think the attributes that
Speaker 3: helped them embarrass the Colts last year in Week eighteen
Speaker 3: and then shut them out five weeks ago are still there.
Speaker 3: And it's basically their defensive line is the best group
Speaker 3: in the game, and that the Colts offensive line is
Speaker 3: a total mess. And yes, the Colts do have two
Speaker 3: receivers back in this game that they didn't have in
Speaker 3: Week two. Pittman and Pierce are their top two receivers,
Speaker 3: they'll be competitive, but at no point in the last
Speaker 3: four weeks of the Colts really graduated to me from
Speaker 3: anything but the number thirty you know, thirty one offense
Speaker 3: in the league, number thirty two, So to me that
Speaker 3: it's a mismatch there. And like I like the Jags
Speaker 3: defense a lot better than the Colts offense. It's enough
Speaker 3: to believe, like there's a reason they've destroyed them the
Speaker 3: last two times. I think they're a better team. I
Speaker 3: think they match up well, and I would take them.
Speaker 1: Now, what do you think?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I have like a slight lean towards Indy in
Speaker 4: my projections, but like there's no way I'm actually betting
Speaker 4: it because I feel like I feel I haven't adjusted
Speaker 4: them down enough in my power ratings and I know that,
Speaker 4: and like to Greg's point, I think that matchup in
Speaker 4: the trenches really does benefit the Jags. Like I've been
Speaker 4: impressed with their defensive line, and more importantly, I've been
Speaker 4: horrified by the Colts offensive line, which used to be
Speaker 4: like one of the real strengths of that team and
Speaker 4: then now is just it's in fire. So I don't
Speaker 4: don't want any part of backing the colts here.
Speaker 1: Matt, you don't have to answer this truthfully, but who
Speaker 1: is older you or Matt Ryan?
Speaker 2: Uh Me?
Speaker 4: Definitely me.
Speaker 2: I was.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I was at BC when Ryan was there, and
Speaker 4: actually yeah, so he he he had like friends who
Speaker 4: lived in the same apartment building linemen. Some of his
Speaker 4: linemen lived in the apartment that was right above the
Speaker 4: one that Eden and I had together, And on Saturday nights,
Speaker 4: they would go in there and they would play like
Speaker 4: the like rock Star, like you remember that game. Yeah,
Speaker 4: So they would be playing rock Star till like four
Speaker 4: in the morning, and Matt Ryan would be up there
Speaker 4: hanging out with them, and like I didn't I didn't
Speaker 4: want to go knock on the door and be like, hey,
Speaker 4: you know you guys, can you sort of like kill it,
Speaker 4: like just you know, I'm trying to sleep. So Eden
Speaker 4: would go do it. So like that's my that's my
Speaker 4: impression or not my impression, but like that that.
Speaker 2: On a game night. Was he play in the next
Speaker 2: night the next day?
Speaker 4: No, this would be after after the game, so it
Speaker 4: would be like games on Saturday, and then Saturday night
Speaker 4: they would be partying in the apartment above us.
Speaker 1: I love how you would just send your now wife
Speaker 1: who for the audience, this is not a physical you
Speaker 1: would not describe etan as physically intimidating in stature, and
Speaker 1: you're sending up there there.
Speaker 4: She would will willingly go up there on her own.
Speaker 1: But that should be you Stephan up there. But I
Speaker 1: asked the question is could you honestly say that you
Speaker 1: would fare that much worse at quarterback right now than
Speaker 1: what's going on in Indy? The is this is just
Speaker 1: this is just bad right now. This is now the
Speaker 1: place where quarterbacks go to die.
Speaker 4: Honestly, this is surprising because, uh, I mean, I thought
Speaker 4: Ryan still had something left after last year, and he
Speaker 4: didn't look bad in the preseason, Like he didn't look great,
Speaker 4: but he didn't. He didn't look bad. He looked like
Speaker 4: sort of Philip Rivers level competent. And that's where I
Speaker 4: thought we would see within this offense, and we haven't
Speaker 4: gotten that at all.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 3: If he was in a different situation, yeah he'd look different,
Speaker 3: but he's the last quarterback you want right now with
Speaker 3: that offensive line. And Tony Romo was pretty strong on
Speaker 3: that point in the in the game that they upset
Speaker 3: the Chiefs of Like, yeah, yeah, he's a veteran in everything,
Speaker 3: but it's like hard sledting him picking up this offense
Speaker 3: and like getting on the same page in terms of
Speaker 3: protection with his offensive line and things like that, making
Speaker 3: pre snap calls and who.
Speaker 2: Knows that might be a coaching thing, that might just be.
Speaker 2: It's a tough fit. But you haven't seen any upswing.
Speaker 3: That's why I hear you on a stay away and look,
Speaker 3: Vegas has not adjusted the Colts down too much either.
Speaker 3: Generally each week there, I'm surprised how they're either favored
Speaker 3: or close to being favored in these games. So that
Speaker 3: surprises me because this season it seems pretty.
Speaker 2: Clear to me the Jaggers they're a better team.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
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Speaker 1: here with some quarterback controversies that are starting to brew
Speaker 1: that really shouldn't be controversies yet, and yet I feel
Speaker 1: like we're all just bored, and so we're talking about them.
Speaker 1: But all of a sudden, here Bailey, Zappy and Mac Jones,
Speaker 1: same as the Dak Prescott Cooper rush thing, you know,
Speaker 1: the actual answer. But then you're looking at what we've
Speaker 1: seen the last couple of weeks now, and you're starting
Speaker 1: to hear some of those people saying, oh, hey, maybe
Speaker 1: Mac Jones isn't it, and maybe they should be riding
Speaker 1: with ZAPPI I don't think that's the case at all.
Speaker 1: But they are three point dogs going into Cleveland here.
Speaker 1: And while I'm no longer giving Bill Belichick the benefit
Speaker 1: of the doubt where I'm saying, oh, it's Belichick, he'll
Speaker 1: figure it out, but I don't trust this Browns team
Speaker 1: at all. It still goes against my core philosophy of
Speaker 1: betting football, which is, don't bet on teams with an
Speaker 1: elf on their fifty yard line. And I just don't
Speaker 1: think this Browns team is as good as the stats
Speaker 1: are kind of saying it easy. If you look at
Speaker 1: their DVA their offensive DVOA is way more impressive than
Speaker 1: the eye test would lead you to believe, and I
Speaker 1: think that's heavily Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt here, what
Speaker 1: do you think about this game?
Speaker 4: Matt, Yeah, I'm on the Patriots in this spot. Totally
Speaker 4: appealing to Greg's homerism here with this pick. But Kevin Stefanski,
Speaker 4: he's eight and sixteen against the spread as a favorite,
Speaker 4: and like that. I feel like that actually makes sense,
Speaker 4: Like when his team is in a situation to play
Speaker 4: with the lead or like they should be winning a game,
Speaker 4: they play much more conservatively and that allows teams to
Speaker 4: get the back door recover. And I think this is
Speaker 4: a game where given the run defense, the horrible run
Speaker 4: defense of the of the Browns, we see Ramandre Stevenson
Speaker 4: just totally dominate and both teams are really going to
Speaker 4: want to run the ball. But the Browns have the
Speaker 4: worst rush defense out of this matchup because they have
Speaker 4: the league's worst rush defense, you know, like thirty two
Speaker 4: in rush EPA, thirty two in rush DVA thirty two
Speaker 4: and adjusted lineyards And you know, I know, no Damien
Speaker 4: Harrison this game. I don't think it's going to matter.
Speaker 4: I think that just means more of Remandree Stephenson, who
Speaker 4: might actually be the better back anyway. I think he's
Speaker 4: maybe the more complete back. He's the more bruising back,
Speaker 4: you know, even though he's a big guy, he's still
Speaker 4: you know, has a three down skill set. He can
Speaker 4: still catch the ball pretty well. So and by the way,
Speaker 4: the Browns are number twenty eight in defensive DVA against
Speaker 4: running backs like through the air, So I think whether
Speaker 4: it's Stevenson on the ground or as a receiver on
Speaker 4: checkdown passes, I think he's going to dominate. So with
Speaker 4: the Patriots relying more on the ground game, I think
Speaker 4: they keep this pretty close. And I have this at
Speaker 4: one point seventy five versus the two and a half
Speaker 4: or three that you see in the market.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you, and it's more of a I'm
Speaker 3: on the Pats this week, and I haven't been high
Speaker 3: on them in general this year, but I think you
Speaker 3: can really see a Patriots like maturation from this team,
Speaker 3: where each and every week they're kind of figuring out
Speaker 3: what they do well. I actually thought mac Jones threw
Speaker 3: it great on the game against the Ravens. He got hurt,
Speaker 3: and defensively, they're starting to figure out their rotations. You know,
Speaker 3: Belichick plays a round with personnel. They've almost have too
Speaker 3: many skill position players because none of them are great,
Speaker 3: and they're rotating like nine of them, and I think
Speaker 3: they're starting to maybe whittle that down. I wouldn't be
Speaker 3: shocked to see way less Nelson Aguilar like maybe even
Speaker 3: in an active and more Taekwon Thornton, John new Smith
Speaker 3: getting hurt might not be the worst thing for them.
Speaker 3: I think they will miss Damien Harris just because I
Speaker 3: think it's better to have two than one, and he's
Speaker 3: a little more explosive than Stevenson. But you're right, Stevenson
Speaker 3: could have a monster game. And there's just something about
Speaker 3: this Browns team and the way that they find ways
Speaker 3: to lose.
Speaker 2: And I also have last.
Speaker 3: Year's game between these two teams in my head. I
Speaker 3: think that's somewhat in just because it's the same coach
Speaker 3: as some similar personnel and that was forty five to seven,
Speaker 3: and Belichick just like gave it, gave it to Stefanski.
Speaker 1: Now, I know this might surprise you guys because it's
Speaker 1: very out of character for him, but Bill Belichick has
Speaker 1: been very noncommittal about Mac Jones's injury status. Here so
Speaker 1: far limited in practice today, but we don't know who's
Speaker 1: starting at quarterback. Is that going to affect anything for
Speaker 1: you guys, or is the difference kind of marginal. It's
Speaker 1: not like Mac Jones' is Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady
Speaker 1: or Lamar Jackson where you're gonna be like that's a
Speaker 1: significant adjustment to the line.
Speaker 4: It is a significant adjustment, Like one is a third
Speaker 4: string rookie quarterback and one was a guy who was
Speaker 4: taken in the first round, who is you know, like
Speaker 4: a championship winning quarterback in college and who did pretty
Speaker 4: well as a rookie last year. Like, there's a significant difference.
Speaker 4: But I think it's gonna be Zappy, And if it's not,
Speaker 4: then it's just like best case scenario, if it actually
Speaker 4: ends up being Mac Jones, if he's healthy enough to
Speaker 4: be on the field, this line would easily move towards
Speaker 4: the Patriots if he played. So I think it's Zapi,
Speaker 4: but if it is, if it is Mac, then even
Speaker 4: better at getting the bet.
Speaker 3: Now, I don't think people who have been on the
Speaker 3: Zappi train, and it's happening locally too, so that's disproving
Speaker 3: what I'm about to say is like, did you guys
Speaker 3: watch did they watch the games? Because he's kind of
Speaker 3: playing on easy mode. He seemed very confused in the
Speaker 3: first game, but he was coming in off the bench
Speaker 3: last week. No one got near him in terms of
Speaker 3: a pass rush from Detroit. On the times where they
Speaker 3: did do play action, it was mostly running, like mac
Speaker 3: Jones is a much better player. And yet I think
Speaker 3: the Patriots have a real chance to win this game.
Speaker 3: I like them to win this game even with Zapy,
Speaker 3: So if Jones was in, then yeah, it's gravy and
Speaker 3: I would like him even more.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I'm not saying that experts or people who are
Speaker 1: learned in the football realm are saying Zapi should be
Speaker 1: the option instead of mac Jones. I'm saying that it
Speaker 1: is the zeitgeist of the general Twitter conversation among the
Speaker 1: mass is you know, you're uninformed, average NFL fan, You're
Speaker 1: Jerry Jones type. That's what I'm saying is making that
Speaker 1: kind of opinion there fair enough.
Speaker 3: You're throwing it out there though, so you got to
Speaker 3: take ownership, that's you.
Speaker 1: I am just reporting the facts, my friend. I am
Speaker 1: reporting the facts of the situation, and the situation also
Speaker 1: has the Panthers as ten point dogs going into Los Angeles.
Speaker 1: I almost said Saint Louis there, But they're going in
Speaker 1: to play the Rams this weekend. And do you give
Speaker 1: any credit to the new coach or at least the
Speaker 1: fired coach, bump, It's not like they've upgraded.
Speaker 2: Steve Wilks is.
Speaker 1: At the helm now, which means Josh Rosen might start
Speaker 1: this week. But I can't. I don't want to lay
Speaker 1: ten with the Rams right now because they have not
Speaker 1: done anything to inspire me lately. But the Panthers are
Speaker 1: not great now. You want to talk about backup quarterbacks here,
Speaker 1: PJ Walker coming in this game the only that might
Speaker 1: actually be a case where maybe he can go out
Speaker 1: and be better than Baker Mayfield. Though, what do you think?
Speaker 3: I like the Panthers to keep it closer just on
Speaker 3: the principle. I guess I don't have many principles, but
Speaker 3: you know I do the picks every week on NFL
Speaker 3: dot Com, and it's like, don't give bad teams points.
Speaker 3: It's the NFL like a ton of points. And the
Speaker 3: Rams are a bad team. I mean, they're one of
Speaker 3: the worst offenses in the league right now. And I
Speaker 3: think they can coach around it. But it's to me,
Speaker 3: it's very interesting to see the comparison to a week
Speaker 3: ago where the Panthers were only six and a half
Speaker 3: point underdogs, to the forty nine Ers, who to me
Speaker 3: are just clearly a superior team right now on both
Speaker 3: sides of the ball, to the Rams defensively and offensively.
Speaker 3: I think the Rams defense is fine, It's why I
Speaker 3: think the Rams will probably win this game. But the
Speaker 3: Rams offensive line is a mess, and they have more
Speaker 3: injuries again this week.
Speaker 2: It's Brian Allen's like injured again.
Speaker 3: David Edwards is in the concussion protocol, like they haven't
Speaker 3: fixed things, and the Panthers defensive personnel's okay.
Speaker 2: It worries me j C.
Speaker 3: Horn might not play in this game, and he's their
Speaker 3: best player in the secondary, and they lost Jeremy and
Speaker 3: so they have a lot of injuries too. It's like
Speaker 3: this wouldn't be my first pick in general, but I
Speaker 3: would feel much comfortable not giving ten and a half
Speaker 3: points to this Rams team. I say, Steve Wilks, gives
Speaker 3: them a little boost. You fire the defensive coordinator. Their
Speaker 3: defensive personnel's okay, like they could hold the Rams under twenty,
Speaker 3: and then at that point it's like you gotta win
Speaker 3: seventeen to six, which is possible, but it's like, I
Speaker 3: don't know.
Speaker 2: I wouldn't be picking that. I'd pick the Panthers.
Speaker 1: My problem is Ben mcadoo's key card is still working
Speaker 1: in that facility, and that's a big red flag for me.
Speaker 3: It's been ugly. It's been tough watching the Panthers offense.
Speaker 3: I'm with you, and the Rams defense is fully capable
Speaker 3: of carrying them for a week. They played fine last week,
Speaker 3: for instance, against the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: Matt Any thoughts on this one.
Speaker 4: Yeah, we talked about this on Tuesday, and I think
Speaker 4: at that time the line was eleven and a half
Speaker 4: and we were talking about, God, this is such an
Speaker 4: ugly game, but it feels like one that I'm destined
Speaker 4: to pick. Now that it's gone to ten, I really
Speaker 4: don't want any part of it. And part of me
Speaker 4: is like, oh, man, I didn't get that closing line.
Speaker 4: I should have grabbed it at eleven and a half
Speaker 4: and I'd be feeling really great right now, except I
Speaker 4: wouldn't feel great because I would be betting on the Panthers, which,
Speaker 4: like in theory, like there's I think I think this
Speaker 4: is the right side. I think Greg is right. Like
Speaker 4: I have this projected at nine point twenty five, and
Speaker 4: so I probably should have bet it at eleven and
Speaker 4: a half, especially through the key number of ten. That
Speaker 4: would have made sense based on the numbers. But this
Speaker 4: is just such a disgusting team, and like I really
Speaker 4: think that they are one of the worst units in
Speaker 4: the league. And as bad as Baker Mayfield, as bad
Speaker 4: as he has been, I think he's been the worst
Speaker 4: quarterback in the league, he still might be better than PJ. Walker,
Speaker 4: you know, Like I think Walker isn't a huge set down,
Speaker 4: but he might be you know, like maybe this team
Speaker 4: is actually even worse than we think, Like maybe they
Speaker 4: just start the tank now, you know. So I kind
Speaker 4: of don't want to be on a team that looks
Speaker 4: like it's at the front runner for the number one pick,
Speaker 4: you know. So I don't know. I like, I see
Speaker 4: Greg's side, and I think I think it is the
Speaker 4: right side overall. It's just I didn't have the fortitude
Speaker 4: to do it.
Speaker 3: It's also the same time as the Chief Spills game,
Speaker 3: so it's like you really want to be distracting yourself
Speaker 3: with this nonsense.
Speaker 1: Yes exactly, And you know, you bring up a great
Speaker 1: point there, because from a battle of just an absolutely
Speaker 1: horrible offense with a horrible quarterback to going to one
Speaker 1: of the best units in the league. Here in their game,
Speaker 1: the Seahawks are taking on the Cardinals, and the goat,
Speaker 1: Geno Smith is a two and a half point home
Speaker 1: dog in this contest. It's the second straight Bird matchup
Speaker 1: for the Cardinals, which I think is definitely something worth
Speaker 1: mentioning there. The Cardinals and the Seahawks. We talked about
Speaker 1: it earlier with the division rivals, that the familiarity they
Speaker 1: play each other tough. The Cardinals normally give the Seahawks
Speaker 1: a pretty decent game, but that was back when the
Speaker 1: Seahawks were good, and then now the seaho are just
Speaker 1: suddenly good again this season, just by no one thinking
Speaker 1: that they could be. Can you know Smith sustain this
Speaker 1: for any reasonable length of time?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean great, I know you're the world's foremost
Speaker 4: Geno Smith backer. But I mean I'm I'm not I'm
Speaker 4: not far back spot.
Speaker 2: It's a good spot. I've cast it.
Speaker 3: I don't want to cast in those chips, but I
Speaker 3: feel like now's the time to do it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean he's top three in a lot of
Speaker 4: different metrics that you would look at, even going back
Speaker 4: to last year, like when he made three spot starts
Speaker 4: for Russell Wilson, Yeah, he was top He's top three
Speaker 4: with an eight point five Justine arts per attempt, composite EPA,
Speaker 4: and completion percentage over expectation. He's top three there. I
Speaker 4: mean like it's it's his kitchen and he's cooking in
Speaker 4: it in a way that Russell Wilson never was able
Speaker 4: to do. And for the season, the Seahawks are top
Speaker 4: four and most passing efficiency metrics, drop back EPA, drop
Speaker 4: back success rate past TVOA, and they're going against a
Speaker 4: Cardinals defense thom as you mentioned that's really bad bottom
Speaker 4: six and all those metrics, and he's got, you know,
Speaker 4: I think a top ten pass catching unit, you know,
Speaker 4: anchored with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett going against a
Speaker 4: totally outmatched secondary and you know, as wild as wild
Speaker 4: as this is to say, because Kyler Murray is the better,
Speaker 4: Like objectively, he is the better quarterback, right Like, I
Speaker 4: think he's cleanly a top ten quarterback GINO as well
Speaker 4: as he's played, he I don't think you can like
Speaker 4: put him in the top ten yet. But Smith has
Speaker 4: been every bit as good as as Murray and maybe
Speaker 4: better than Murray through five games. And I think that's
Speaker 4: because of the playmaking support he gets from his receivers
Speaker 4: and the play calling support he gets from his coaches,
Speaker 4: because Kyler Murray hasn't gotten any of that play calling support.
Speaker 4: It's basically in the second half when it's like, hey, Kyler,
Speaker 4: go do something, and whenever the Cliff Kingsburray shackles have
Speaker 4: been taken off of Kyler Murray that that Cardinals offense
Speaker 4: is finally able to do something. So I do like
Speaker 4: the Seahawks in this spot. If the numbers, if the
Speaker 4: numbers three, if the number two and a half where
Speaker 4: we were seeing them, I think this is a pick them.
Speaker 2: Like.
Speaker 4: I think this should just be straight up pick them.
Speaker 4: So I do like the Seahawks a lot in this spot.
Speaker 3: Oh, you're making me feel better about this one. This
Speaker 3: was one where I would be a stay away. I
Speaker 3: just don't have any feel like the eye test to
Speaker 3: me says the Cardinals have improved on both sides the
Speaker 3: last couple of weeks, that they're getting it together and
Speaker 3: that's like a low bar. But they just seem like
Speaker 3: a more average operation on both sides. That it's not
Speaker 3: a lot of deep shots offensively, but they one really
Speaker 3: kyl Of really won from the pocket against Carolina, which
Speaker 3: I thought was good. It wasn't him kind of making
Speaker 3: things up as he go along. They were very competitive
Speaker 3: last week. Their defense, which I thought was just a
Speaker 3: tire fire to start the season, definitely looks better with
Speaker 3: JJ Watt back, and now they're playing Simmons again full time,
Speaker 3: and he just like, look okay, And I've become a
Speaker 3: Seahawks fan this year because of Gino, and it does
Speaker 3: worry me, Like Gino can't play much better than he
Speaker 3: he's played the.
Speaker 2: Last three weeks.
Speaker 3: You said, like you said he's better better than Kyler, Well, yeah,
Speaker 3: for sure. I mean he's been better than God, He's
Speaker 3: been better than like really, the only quarterbacks you could
Speaker 3: make a case that have been better than him this
Speaker 3: year are Josh Allen and Mahomes and maybe Hurts and Lamar.
Speaker 2: But like that's it, Like that's that's the whole list.
Speaker 3: And yet the last three weeks it's like you lose
Speaker 3: to the Falcons, you scrape by against the Lions in
Speaker 3: a game in the forties and you lose to a
Speaker 3: kind of a bumbling Saints team. So it's like he's
Speaker 3: having to play at that high a level just for
Speaker 3: those results. Like, is bothersome to me? Because is he
Speaker 3: going to stay at that level forever? That's a it's
Speaker 3: a lot to ask. I ended up picking the Cardinals
Speaker 3: in this game, but I don't feel good about it
Speaker 3: either way. I just feel like they have a little
Speaker 3: more talent. The Seahawks defense just seems Yeah, it's like that.
Speaker 3: I just have a hard time picking them in any
Speaker 3: game because of their defense.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean, I get to the Lions of the highest
Speaker 1: scoring team in the league right now, but you at
Speaker 1: them without Amanra or DeAndre Swift put up forty five
Speaker 1: points on you. That's a red flag, right, That's not
Speaker 1: ideal in any sense. Although who knew? We all thought
Speaker 1: that this Seahawks team was gearing up for a tank athon,
Speaker 1: and it turned out that Pete Cawlees knew that he
Speaker 1: had to get rid of Russell Wilson and bring a
Speaker 1: quarterback who could actually handle the pass heavy offense he
Speaker 1: wanted to put out there the whole time. Who knew guys,
Speaker 1: real quick, remember when you're looking for free picks and
Speaker 1: sports betting advice, Bettingpros dot com has you covered with
Speaker 1: tips from over one hundred and fifty experts to make
Speaker 1: it easy for you to cash out. Download the app
Speaker 1: to get sports betting alerts. You'll get notified of favorable
Speaker 1: bets based online movements, consensus picks from the most accurate experts,
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Speaker 1: the major sports books, most accurate experts, and top systems
Speaker 1: to identify the best betting opportunities. So download today in
Speaker 1: the Apple or Google Play stores. Now, the next game
Speaker 1: up here, guys. Bothers me that this is the primetime
Speaker 1: game and not the Bills chief game, which we'll get
Speaker 1: to after. But I do understand why. I understand the
Speaker 1: rules of networking and how the Chiefs Bills game was
Speaker 1: one thousand percent protected from this, and so NBC was like, oh, well,
Speaker 1: let's get the Eagles and the Cowboys and fource feed
Speaker 1: everybody and at least good NFC East matchup this time
Speaker 1: around instead of some of the ones that we've had
Speaker 1: to endure over the past couple of years. Here, but
Speaker 1: the Eagles are laying six right now in this spot
Speaker 1: against the Cowboys. Looks like it's still going to be
Speaker 1: Cooper Rush. Dak Prescott's trying as hard as he can
Speaker 1: to get back on the field. Here. He reminds me
Speaker 1: of a story my dad would tell me of the
Speaker 1: time when he was in high school playing football and
Speaker 1: he broke his arm and he cut off the cast
Speaker 1: with a saws all so he could play in the
Speaker 1: big game against Seaton Hall that week, and they got destroyed,
Speaker 1: but he scored the only touchdown. But that's what Dak
Speaker 1: Prescott's doing right now. He's seeing Cooper Rush out there
Speaker 1: winning games, and he's like, oh God, I got to
Speaker 1: get back on the field no matter how bad my
Speaker 1: hand is right now. Can the Cowboys do something here?
Speaker 1: The Eagles, they're they're obviously one of the great teams
Speaker 1: right now. They're they're the only five and zero team.
Speaker 1: I do think these birds are real, but I am
Speaker 1: not too optimistic because they aren't that great against the spread.
Speaker 1: They're letting teams back into games. Six points feels like
Speaker 1: a lot in this spot against the Cowboys team that
Speaker 1: has not been bad even without the quarterback.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I'm on the Eagles in this spot,
Speaker 4: but I first betted at five. I bet it in
Speaker 4: the look ahead market. I don't want to touch it
Speaker 4: at six, so you know I will stay away from
Speaker 4: it at the current number. But I do have this
Speaker 4: projected at six point seventy five, so you know, slight
Speaker 4: lean at this current number towards the Eagles. But it's
Speaker 4: not like I'm rushing out to bet it at this point.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm a little worried here, as you were talking.
Speaker 3: My first instinct and it feels like probably what the
Speaker 3: public's kind of think too, is like it six is
Speaker 3: too much to give to the Cowboys, like the Cowboys
Speaker 3: are too good.
Speaker 1: It actually gets worse now. I just checked the line
Speaker 1: to move to six and a half.
Speaker 3: Okay, so I guess I'm wrong. Maybe people are going
Speaker 3: for the Eagles. I don't really know, but because my
Speaker 3: first instinct is just like that's too much, the Cowboys
Speaker 3: have just earned my respect. But I also could see
Speaker 3: this as a spot where Eagles are at home.
Speaker 2: I don't think they played their best last week.
Speaker 3: They are capable of running right through that Cowboys defensive line.
Speaker 3: They're so good rushing the passer, but they haven't played
Speaker 3: against an offensive line this good. What makes them good
Speaker 3: is that they have four guys who can do it.
Speaker 3: I mean Lawrence and Parsons. That's the best tandem there
Speaker 3: is yet Odigi Zua is getting after it and like
Speaker 3: Dante Fowler was getting in the mix last week. They
Speaker 3: really have four or five guys. Armstrong has been good
Speaker 3: for them, so it's a great matchup up front. It's
Speaker 3: just hard to imagine Cooper rush and then winning the
Speaker 3: battles on the outside.
Speaker 2: James Bradbury's played great.
Speaker 3: So I'm kind of talking myself out of my first instinct,
Speaker 3: which in the one that's on NFL dot Com, which
Speaker 3: is Cowboys. I think losing by five, like I pretty
Speaker 3: much played it right down the middle, but keeping it
Speaker 3: under that six number just because their defense is so good.
Speaker 2: But my heart's my heart's not in it.
Speaker 3: If I think if I if I was forced to
Speaker 3: actually uh put money on it, and I'm not allowed
Speaker 3: to work for the NFL, so it's all hypothetical for me.
Speaker 3: I probably feel better about the Eagles ultimately, if I
Speaker 3: had to pick one.
Speaker 1: I hate laying decently large points with a divisional With
Speaker 1: a divisional matchup like It just feels like in the NFL,
Speaker 1: when you have familiarity with your opponent like that, you're
Speaker 1: you're so much more prone to this game being closer
Speaker 1: than you think, just because these teams.
Speaker 3: Although there is like track track records, I do think
Speaker 3: matter in this case. And I could be wrong, but
Speaker 3: I feel like the Eagles have did a nice job
Speaker 3: last year against Syria against the Cowboys.
Speaker 2: But might be talking out of my butt.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, and to Tom to your point about divisions,
Speaker 4: you know, like home field advantage doesn't.
Speaker 3: Like I want to correct myself. The Cowboys smoked them twice.
Speaker 3: Why was when they've rested their starters in week eighteen,
Speaker 3: so it means nothing. But they did smoke them earlier
Speaker 3: in the season before the Eagles got going, So I'm
Speaker 3: an idiot.
Speaker 2: I just wanted to correct me.
Speaker 1: So all right, thanks for then, thanks for the update there.
Speaker 1: We'll let it slide on you this time. You've got
Speaker 1: a lot to think about. You don't have to worry
Speaker 1: about the Cowboys and the Eagles matching up because, let's
Speaker 1: face it, that hasn't been a matchup with looking at
Speaker 1: for a little while.
Speaker 4: We could we could edit that out, but we won't.
Speaker 4: We're just gonna leave it the way it was.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm fine.
Speaker 2: I'm fine with that. I'm fine with it.
Speaker 3: It's a different Eagles team though, But I wouldn't feel
Speaker 3: I wouldn't feel good.
Speaker 2: This Cowboys team is too good.
Speaker 3: I feel like they're like, this is not one of
Speaker 3: those NFCS matchups. This is a great matchup to these
Speaker 3: are if I was doing power rankings, like considering Dak
Speaker 3: will come back, I would say these are two of
Speaker 3: the most you know, three or four most likely teams
Speaker 3: to make the Super.
Speaker 2: Bowl in the NFC. That would I would put them
Speaker 2: in that group.
Speaker 4: Right, Okay, let's that's an interesting statement. Let's tom, We're
Speaker 4: gonna go on the little side road here for us. Yes, okay,
Speaker 4: so three or four most teams in the NFC to
Speaker 4: make the Super Bowl? Yeah, all right, So let's assume
Speaker 4: that Tampa Bay is up there, right, Yeah, yeah, obviously Seattle.
Speaker 3: I don't know if assuming Tampa Bay, they've they've got
Speaker 3: some The Eagles, certainly, I'm assuming they're up there because
Speaker 3: they were my Super Bowl championship pick before the year,
Speaker 3: which is feeling good right now.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so you have but you know, you have the
Speaker 4: Eagles and the Cowboys up there, assuming the normal return
Speaker 4: of Dak Prescott. Uh so, Tampa Bay would be in
Speaker 4: the running to be in the top four. San Francisco
Speaker 4: would be in the running to be in the top four. Uh.
Speaker 4: You know, but then after that it gets a little
Speaker 4: it gets a little dicey. I would have Green Bay
Speaker 4: up there, but some people want it based on how
Speaker 4: they've looked.
Speaker 3: So fifth, So that the list you just said would
Speaker 3: have been my list. I would have had the Eagles first,
Speaker 3: and I would have the Cowboys, and it's a you know,
Speaker 3: whoever wins at the I mean, this is a big game.
Speaker 3: It is really important because the ODDA divisions get is
Speaker 3: good and in San Francisco would probably be next, and
Speaker 3: then Tampa would be would be you know, Tampa, and
Speaker 3: the NFC East loser probably Dallas would be fourth, you know,
Speaker 3: third and fourth.
Speaker 1: For me, Okay, I still maintain my preseason take that
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers are a bad football team.
Speaker 2: I don't know, no, I just.
Speaker 1: I will never I will never trust them. They managed
Speaker 1: to luff box themselves out of every situation. The defense
Speaker 1: very real.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 1: My take was mostly based off of the fact that
Speaker 1: I don't trust Trey Lance at all. Obviously that ship
Speaker 1: is now sailed, but Jimmy g is still not a
Speaker 1: good quarterback and you're still winning games in spite of
Speaker 1: him and not because of him, and that keeps them
Speaker 1: from being a team that can really ascend to that
Speaker 1: top level.
Speaker 4: For me, yeah, yeah, you know, I think I think
Speaker 4: Garoppolo is serviceable within the Shanahan's game. Like, yeah, I
Speaker 4: don't think he would work well with a lot of
Speaker 4: other coaches, but I think he's good enough within that system.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a reason no one else wanted him.
Speaker 4: Well it's the injury too, that didn't help.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but still the team is better with him at
Speaker 1: the helm than Trey Lance. I'll give them that. The
Speaker 1: people preseason and we're going, oh, this is a super
Speaker 1: Bowl team with Trey Lance. No, you ain't. You're not
Speaker 1: a super Bowl team.
Speaker 4: And I wanted to see.
Speaker 2: It at least. I don't think we can, Like we know,
Speaker 2: we haven't seen anything.
Speaker 3: We don't know, we don't know, but I I think
Speaker 3: it's worth not like people gave Baker so many passes
Speaker 3: last year for playing through that injury. I mean, Jimmy
Speaker 3: Garoppolo was playing through an injured shoulder that required surgery,
Speaker 3: and he played the worst football of his life, I
Speaker 3: would say, and.
Speaker 2: They still almost made the Super Bowl.
Speaker 3: So if you just get like I think you can
Speaker 3: get a better version of Jimmy g which is still boring,
Speaker 3: and I agree with you. I'd probably put them a
Speaker 3: tick below the top team is because of him, But
Speaker 3: to me, they would be in the rest of the
Speaker 3: team is so good. I love their offensive, you know,
Speaker 3: pass catchers that they would be in that like three
Speaker 3: to four range for me in the NFC.
Speaker 2: But the Cowboys would too.
Speaker 3: The Cowboys have probably like improve their odds in my
Speaker 3: mind of making a playoff run more than just about
Speaker 3: any team because of how they've looked.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Greg quick, quick aside here. So Dak Prescott coming back,
Speaker 4: what do you think the difference is in terms of
Speaker 4: like points added to the team between Dak Prescott and
Speaker 4: Cooper Rush. Would you say four points? Five points?
Speaker 3: Yeah, that seems like what a quality starting quarterback difference
Speaker 3: to a good backup would be. I think I think
Speaker 3: it's very significant. I'm not really projecting forward that Dak's
Speaker 3: gonna struggle because he struggled in Week one. I'm I'm
Speaker 3: looking at what they've done offensively and being encouraged that
Speaker 3: you put Dak in there and it's gonna be better
Speaker 3: and hopefully better than it was down the stretch last
Speaker 3: season too.
Speaker 4: Yeah, So I'm I'm eyeballing this now looking at my
Speaker 4: power ratings, and I think it's five points. But Cooper
Speaker 4: rush Is recent has made me reevaluate that just a
Speaker 4: little bit. But I think it's five points. And if
Speaker 4: we add that five points of Dak coming back to
Speaker 4: this team, then yeah, I think they are probably power
Speaker 4: rated above the Rams, above the Packers, close to the
Speaker 4: forty nine ers, not quite to the level of the Eagles,
Speaker 4: but they're in that mix with Dak. If they are
Speaker 4: in that mix.
Speaker 3: Improved too, Yeah, it's crazy they Parsons is like a
Speaker 3: transformational guy, and they have great continuity and youth at
Speaker 3: the same time in the secondary, and Quinn is like
Speaker 3: he's just mixing it up. I think they have, not
Speaker 3: that they're patriotsy at all, but their defense reminds me
Speaker 3: a little bit this sweet spot. When you have a
Speaker 3: good coach and you have youth and continuity at the
Speaker 3: same time, you can do a lot of things. Changing
Speaker 3: what you're going to do week to week, and they've
Speaker 3: been I think, very difficult to prepare for. But they
Speaker 3: also haven't played, like I said before, great offenses or
Speaker 3: great off line.
Speaker 2: So this this week will be a great test.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting you say, good coach though, because let's
Speaker 1: face it, Mike McCarthy hasn't been making positive headlines since
Speaker 1: his ride.
Speaker 3: Now I'm talking more dan Quinn in this specific case,
Speaker 3: but they've been pretty well coached overall this year.
Speaker 2: You got to give it to him now.
Speaker 1: Bringing it all the way back from ours side, from rsside,
Speaker 1: from our side, the final game that we want to
Speaker 1: talk about here, the Chiefs and the Bills. This is,
Speaker 1: of course the second biggest matchup of the week, behind
Speaker 1: the Commander's Bears matchup that won't really be relevant by
Speaker 1: the time this show comes out, But Chiefs Bills. This
Speaker 1: is an AFC Championship preview in most people's minds here,
Speaker 1: and the stakes are very very real, because odds are
Speaker 1: the winner of this game is the one who gets
Speaker 1: to host that game most likely, or at least maybe
Speaker 1: not most likely, but you know that's on people's minds
Speaker 1: right now. The Chiefs are getting two and a half
Speaker 1: at home in this one, And I mean, I get it.
Speaker 1: The Bills are a buzz saw, but they're a buzzsaw
Speaker 1: that's got a few broken little blades in there on
Speaker 1: the secondary that can be exploited. I mean, it feels
Speaker 1: like we're destined for a barn burner here and we're
Speaker 1: all hoping that this is just exactly like that playoff
Speaker 1: matchup last year. But where are you guys going? I
Speaker 1: have a hard time taking I have a hard time
Speaker 1: not taking points with the Chiefs, and I have a
Speaker 1: hard time betting against the Bills, and it's making me
Speaker 1: not know where I want to go in this Greg
Speaker 1: any thoughts.
Speaker 3: I don't have a strong feeling I would definitely stay away.
Speaker 3: I'm with you that my first instinct was, just like
Speaker 3: Mahomes as a home underdog. I'm just, by principle on
Speaker 3: a game that I don't have a good feel for,
Speaker 3: would take that. But it's also one of those Okay,
Speaker 3: I'm taking that, But in my heart, I feel like
Speaker 3: I know the Bills are a better team overall, that
Speaker 3: they're more balanced, that their defense is absolutely better than
Speaker 3: the Chiefs defense, and so I don't feel good about
Speaker 3: it whatsoever.
Speaker 2: But forced to choose.
Speaker 3: I still would probably lean my Homes, but it's like
Speaker 3: most games, you think, okay, Mahomes, what an advantage, and
Speaker 3: he's playing at an MVP level. These are the two
Speaker 3: top MVP candidates, I would say through five weeks, so
Speaker 3: you don't even feel like you have a big advantage
Speaker 3: at quarterback, which is crazy.
Speaker 1: I can't remember if it was this show's Tuesday episode
Speaker 1: or a show that I was edding with you, Matt
Speaker 1: and Pat Fitzmorris on where someone made the point about
Speaker 1: Andy Reid and the Chiefs that some games it feels
Speaker 1: like they have two playbooks. They have the We're going
Speaker 1: all out playbook and we don't want to show anybody
Speaker 1: anything playbook. Yeah, and it feels like the Raiders game
Speaker 1: was that we don't want to show anybody anything because
Speaker 1: we've got to get big game against the Bills next week. Matt,
Speaker 1: how much are you factoring that into saying, Okay, the
Speaker 1: Raiders game on Monday night, Maybe that was a little
Speaker 1: bit of a fluke, that was the Raiders really getting
Speaker 1: up for that game. And the other factor is, how
Speaker 1: do you think that the short rest going into playing
Speaker 1: the Bills is going to matter?
Speaker 4: I mean, I think it matters. I've taken that into
Speaker 4: account in my projections. I have this, I don't know,
Speaker 4: it's discussing, and I'm probably wrong, but I do have
Speaker 4: the Chiefs as a slight favorite. I have him as
Speaker 4: a one point favorite here, and my Galaxy brain is
Speaker 4: just like, Okay, Patrick Mahomes. I still think he's the
Speaker 4: number one quarterback in the league. Josh Allen is right
Speaker 4: up there, but I think Mahomes is still slightly the
Speaker 4: better quarterback. I think Andy Reid, even though he has
Speaker 4: questionable decision making at times, in terms of a schemer,
Speaker 4: he's unrivaled. I think he's the better coach in this game.
Speaker 4: And they're going against a defense that has at least
Speaker 4: been injured to this point. They might get a number
Speaker 4: of those players back, but they're still without their number
Speaker 4: one quarterback, Tredavius White. They're still without their free safety
Speaker 4: Micah Hyde, you know, and there's no guarantee that some
Speaker 4: of those other guys in the secondary end up coming
Speaker 4: back this week. So yeah, if you give me the
Speaker 4: opportunity to take Patrick Mahomes as an underdog, I will
Speaker 4: do it. He's seven to zero to one against the
Speaker 4: spread as an underdog he's He's literally undefeated against the
Speaker 4: spread as an underdog. Like anytime that the market has
Speaker 4: looked at Mahomes and said, no, we're gonna go against
Speaker 4: him with this other guy, the market has been wrong.
Speaker 2: Were they Were they in the playoff game last year?
Speaker 3: I'm trying to think they definitely were favored against the
Speaker 3: Bills in Week five last year and the Bills smoked him,
Speaker 3: so that you know that having that history that like, okay,
Speaker 3: we've seen it, and that was they had that game
Speaker 3: plan that made everyone question what are the Chiefs going
Speaker 3: to do to fix things? And I think the Chiefs
Speaker 3: last year has been in part almost like reacting to
Speaker 3: that game in that defensive style, and they've become very
Speaker 3: good at it. They are a good station to station
Speaker 3: offense when they need to be there, better at running
Speaker 3: the ball. When I saw the injury report, because my
Speaker 3: initial pick was Chiefs, I needed to put it in
Speaker 3: even before the first injury reports out, and like so
Speaker 3: many Bills are coming back for this game, it got
Speaker 3: me thinking, like I don't know, like the head says
Speaker 3: Bills even though my heart says Chiefs. Because players likely back. Yeah,
Speaker 3: Dawson Knox is likely back Isaiah McKenzie's likely back at
Speaker 3: Oliver has been back.
Speaker 2: I think Jordan Phillips their defensive lineman.
Speaker 3: So that's like a lot of players they are getting
Speaker 3: back in player, especially to have one of their starting
Speaker 3: safeties is important. So I think they're a better team.
Speaker 3: And yet I because of everything you said, I wouldn't pick.
Speaker 2: I would take the Chiefs still in the end.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I think I think Kelsey makes a big
Speaker 4: difference in this game. Like obviously he's the number one
Speaker 4: pass catcher for that offense, and I think, you know,
Speaker 4: he had success last year going against the Bills. Let's see,
Speaker 4: got one hundred and fifty three yards and two touchdowns
Speaker 4: last year and two games against the Bills on nineteen targets.
Speaker 4: And there's just something about the way that the Bills
Speaker 4: are constructed on defense, Like they have a good defense,
Speaker 4: but they're still seventeenth in defensive success rate drop back
Speaker 4: success rate, Like they are allowing teams to to like
Speaker 4: just get little chunk games on them through the passing game,
Speaker 4: and like that really aligns with the Chiefs are doing
Speaker 4: this year. So I don't know, it feels like it's
Speaker 4: like you hear about like Ben but don't break defenses
Speaker 4: like the Chiefs have a break them by bending them
Speaker 4: type of offense, and I think they're going against a
Speaker 4: defense that will allow them to move the ball down
Speaker 4: the field.
Speaker 1: This is I really just can't wait to watch this game.
Speaker 1: I don't think that I'm gonna be able to put
Speaker 1: a bed in. I think you're right, Matt, I'm inclined
Speaker 1: to go against that. I'm not inclined to go against Mahomes.
Speaker 1: I'm inclined to bet on him when I'm getting some
Speaker 1: points with them. Part of me wants to take the
Speaker 1: under in this one because the totals at like fifty
Speaker 1: four right now, and that just feels like a potential
Speaker 1: play where, you know, if we have a period of
Speaker 1: time in the game, like third quarter where things just
Speaker 1: slow down a little bit, you maybe have like a
Speaker 1: turnover in the red zone or two, all of a
Speaker 1: sudden you're staring down the barrel of a big sweat
Speaker 1: to get over in the forth uter.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they score twenty five points in two minutes like
Speaker 3: they did at the end of that playoff game, and
Speaker 3: you're right, they could slow the pace down with like
Speaker 3: a bunch of long drives. But that that game alone,
Speaker 3: and look, the regular season won last year when the
Speaker 3: Chiefs offense was struggling, still went over.
Speaker 2: That number was thirty eight to twenty. I don't know.
Speaker 3: I just would be not wanting to root against points
Speaker 3: in the fourth quarter of this game.
Speaker 4: I couldn't do it. I can't do it. It's such a
Speaker 4: high number. And the Bills, with their defense and then
Speaker 4: their ability to control the ball on offense, they have
Speaker 4: been an under team this year. But I just still can't.
Speaker 4: I still can't do it.
Speaker 3: It wouldn't it wouldn't shock me if the Bill's pass
Speaker 3: rush was the difference in this game and they win
Speaker 3: because of that, And it's not that crazy at score
Speaker 3: to your point, because that's I mentioned. The Cowboys changed
Speaker 3: how I thought. Weirdly, the Bills have changed how I
Speaker 3: thought going into the season. I think more than any
Speaker 3: AFC team because their pass rush is just absolutely.
Speaker 2: For real and it wasn't there. It was why they
Speaker 2: lost this game a year.
Speaker 3: Ago, and it's so good so like to me, their
Speaker 3: defense is even better than I expected.
Speaker 2: Long term.
Speaker 3: Even even if I don't feel strong about this game,
Speaker 3: I feel like they're they I just can't. They're just
Speaker 3: gonna be such a tough out in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is I mean, this is gonna be a
Speaker 1: great game. This is a pre preview of hopefully what
Speaker 1: we get as a rematch in the postseason. I'm excited
Speaker 1: to watch it. I'm not particularly keen on betting it though,
Speaker 1: but guys, that is going to do it for us. Craig,
Speaker 1: thank you so much for the time today. We have
Speaker 1: definitely kept you long enough here. But where could people
Speaker 1: find you in the great work you're doing around the internet.
Speaker 3: Yeah, check the Around the NFL podcast, And I also
Speaker 3: do a podcast with my comedian friend.
Speaker 2: His name is Anthony Jesslnick.
Speaker 3: It's called the Jesselnick and Rosenthal Vanity Project and that's
Speaker 3: a lot of fun I just try to stay out
Speaker 3: of his way. Well, well, he's funny, so you can
Speaker 3: check out that too.
Speaker 1: He is a fantastic comedian. I love both of your
Speaker 1: works on both the podcast and the Around the NFL network.
Speaker 1: Around the NFL podcast. Absolutely a pleasure to have you
Speaker 1: here with us today. Of course, mad f the Oracle
Speaker 1: on Twitter you can find him and his and uh
Speaker 1: all of the fantastic content that you're doing as well.
Speaker 4: Matt right, Yeah, I mean I don't know if i'd
Speaker 4: say it's fantastic, but it's good enough. It's good. I'm
Speaker 4: a top ten ranker right now in the Fantasy Pros contest,
Speaker 4: so that's uh, that's.
Speaker 1: Not nothing, not nothing at all. Guys, that's gonna do
Speaker 1: it for us. Thank you so much for listening today,
Speaker 1: and of course, let's catch some tickets this weekend.