1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,559 Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. 2 00:00:04,640 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: It is time for Week six of the NFL season. 3 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:10,360 Speaker 1: The time is just flying. Bahi, guys. I can't believe 4 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:12,560 Speaker 1: we are already five weeks in here. More over than that, 5 00:00:12,640 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 1: I can't believe that my Jets are three and two. 6 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:17,639 Speaker 1: We don't get three wins until December. I'm feeling good 7 00:00:17,720 --> 00:00:19,840 Speaker 1: right now, and I'm feeling great because we have a 8 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 1: fantastic show for you guys today. Of course, as always 9 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:26,200 Speaker 1: here with me none other than the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman. 10 00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 1: And today we have a very very special guest with 11 00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 1: us from the Around the NFL podcast, Greg Rosenthal. Greg, 12 00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:34,839 Speaker 1: thank you so much for being here. How are you 13 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:35,400 Speaker 1: doing today? 14 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 2: I'm doing great. 15 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 3: Although I can't seem to get away from Jets fan 16 00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:41,960 Speaker 3: hosts of the podcast I'm doing today, That's true. 17 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:45,280 Speaker 1: Nope, you are stuck with us. We're everywhere. It's a 18 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:47,360 Speaker 1: miserable contingent that finally has somehow. 19 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:50,360 Speaker 3: Right now, they're feeling themselves. Y'all are into it, and 20 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 3: I'm with you kind of. We'll put a pin in 21 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:53,120 Speaker 3: that for later. 22 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:56,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, we will be. As you know, this is the time, 23 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:58,920 Speaker 1: this is I know what's coming this week. We got 24 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 1: Packers minus in this game, and this is absolutely we're 25 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:06,120 Speaker 1: gonna get right off the bat here, starting with that one, 26 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 1: because last week I said, Miami Nonna, they're gonna take 27 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:12,800 Speaker 1: them down. Two good things can't happen to the Jets 28 00:01:12,800 --> 00:01:15,160 Speaker 1: in a row. Sure enough, it did. But the only 29 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:17,319 Speaker 1: thing less likely to happen to the Jets is three 30 00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 1: good things in a row. I'm shocked that they have 31 00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:22,400 Speaker 1: a team website because they can't string three ws together. 32 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 1: And now you have this chance here as seven point 33 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 1: dogs in this game, and I'm looking at it and 34 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 1: I'm like, we should be competitive based on how we've 35 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:32,560 Speaker 1: played so far this season, we should be competitive in 36 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 1: this one. And that means the bottom is about to 37 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 1: fall out. Matt, what do you think in this game? 38 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:40,520 Speaker 1: Is it gonna be happening here in this spot or 39 00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:42,480 Speaker 1: are they gonna be able to cover? Because if there's 40 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 1: any team to be playing right now, it's the Packers. 41 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 1: That overtime win over the Patriots with Bailey Zappi and 42 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:51,080 Speaker 1: then you'll lose outright to the Giants. They're not going 43 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 1: Things are not going great in Green Bay right now. 44 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, A man as we talked about previously. I feel 45 00:01:56,880 --> 00:02:00,400 Speaker 4: like I've been too high on the Packers up until 46 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:02,320 Speaker 4: this point in the season. And you know, I always 47 00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 4: try to sort of contextualize and explain a way why 48 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:08,360 Speaker 4: I haven't adjusted them down in my power ratings. It's like, well, 49 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:11,040 Speaker 4: they were missing their tackles, and they didn't have their 50 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 4: number one receiver and their their top cornerback was out, 51 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 4: you know, But like this is it like if they 52 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 4: don't do well against the Jets, I need to stop 53 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:20,920 Speaker 4: making excuses for them. And I've I've already bumped them 54 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 4: down to my power ratings, but this feels like a 55 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:26,680 Speaker 4: I don't know, a come down spot for the Jets 56 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 4: and a bounce back spot for the Packers. And just 57 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 4: you know, Aaron Rodgers off of a loss is forty 58 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 4: twenty one and one against the spread. Aaron Rodgers at 59 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:39,400 Speaker 4: lambeau Field is sixty six, thirty five and three against 60 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 4: the spread. Aaron Rodgers is a favorite is ninety seven, 61 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:45,680 Speaker 4: sixty six and three against the spread. Like he is 62 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:49,959 Speaker 4: just sort of like like in that triangulation of Aaron 63 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:53,480 Speaker 4: Rodgers sweet spots, And you know, I think a lot 64 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 4: of this game does come down to Aaron Rodgers. But 65 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:59,520 Speaker 4: I think also it comes down to that Packers defense 66 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:02,480 Speaker 4: going to it's the Jets pass offense, which I think 67 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:06,880 Speaker 4: has overperformed. Like Zach Wilson has been somewhat mediocre for 68 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:09,919 Speaker 4: the Jets in his two starts, like he's been non horrible, 69 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:12,639 Speaker 4: which is an improvement from where he was last year. 70 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:15,360 Speaker 4: But I'm just I'm not buying it. I think the 71 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 4: Packers have a clear advantage on defense against Wilson, at 72 00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:21,080 Speaker 4: least that's what I'm seeing in our our Fantasy pros 73 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 4: unit power rankings. I have Wilson as the number twenty 74 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:28,359 Speaker 4: six quarterback in the league. The Packers defense, it hasn't 75 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:31,120 Speaker 4: it hasn't played up to its potential, but I think 76 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:33,639 Speaker 4: it's still I have it as the number eight unit. 77 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:37,080 Speaker 4: I have the secondary is the number four secondary. 78 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 2: In the league. 79 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 4: On the players they have, and I know I've never played, 80 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:48,760 Speaker 4: I know they have. That's the thing, Like there's still 81 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 4: priors built into this, Like they were a good unit 82 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 4: last year. You figure that it's. 83 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 2: Somewhere that. 84 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 3: They weren't that good and they give up a lot 85 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 3: on the ground, and I'm in with the Jets offense. 86 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 3: The thing that really strikes me every week is how 87 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:06,760 Speaker 3: open guys are. It really looks like the forty nine 88 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 3: ers offense. And I'm not a believer in Zach Wilson yet, 89 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 3: but he's made a few plays in the last few 90 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:17,719 Speaker 3: weeks that's more impressive than anything he did as a rookie. 91 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:20,839 Speaker 3: I think he'll probably still kill you, and this could 92 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:22,479 Speaker 3: be one of the games that he will. He'll have 93 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 3: some really down weeks, but guys are open, and it's 94 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 3: like the guys are open like they are in the 95 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 3: forty nine ers offense, except you have a quarterback who 96 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:32,240 Speaker 3: can throw a deep out and can create a little 97 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 3: I think there are a talented team. Maybe I'm just 98 00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:39,320 Speaker 3: doing too many podcasts with Dan hansis my host. He's 99 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:41,279 Speaker 3: convinced me I don't think these two teams are that 100 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:44,840 Speaker 3: different talent wise. And so seven or seven and a 101 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 3: half feels feels like a lot like I wouldn't trust 102 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:49,200 Speaker 3: the Jets to win, but it just feels like it'll 103 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:50,800 Speaker 3: come down to the end and that the Jets will 104 00:04:50,839 --> 00:04:53,000 Speaker 3: run the ball and kind of keep it close that way. 105 00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 4: Okay, it feels like a lot in that if you 106 00:04:57,080 --> 00:05:01,960 Speaker 4: focus on only what's happened this year. Yeah, but with 107 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 4: you this year, if you but if you take into 108 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 4: account that one of these guys is Aaron Rodgers and 109 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:11,440 Speaker 4: one of them definitely is not in that the Jets 110 00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:15,159 Speaker 4: last year were horrible and the Packers last year were 111 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 4: really good, and we should still take that fact into account. 112 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 4: I just think in. 113 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 3: This game fit seven points. If it was just off 114 00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:25,400 Speaker 3: this year, I feel like it'd be three or so. 115 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:28,280 Speaker 3: The Packers offense, though, has been getting better each and 116 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 3: every week. So that's actually more of my concern if 117 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 3: you were back in the Jets, is that I think 118 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:35,960 Speaker 3: the Packers' offense, their struggles have been a little overstated. 119 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:37,200 Speaker 2: It's a really good running game. 120 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:40,039 Speaker 3: The passing games can get better every week, and it 121 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:42,480 Speaker 3: wouldn't surprise me if they put thirty up in this 122 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:44,480 Speaker 3: game and then and then you're chasing a lot of 123 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:45,480 Speaker 3: points the Jets. 124 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 4: So one more thing, one more thing in this Like 125 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 4: the Jets offensive line is really banged up, and I 126 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:52,799 Speaker 4: know that they got Dwayne Brown back, but they're still 127 00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:57,479 Speaker 4: without McKai Beckton, George Fant, Max Mitchell. I think that 128 00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 4: Zach Wilson is going to be under heavy pressure. Shawn 129 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 4: gary In, Presntsmith so I think that will keep the 130 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:07,120 Speaker 4: the sort of forty nine Ers style of offense from 131 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:08,880 Speaker 4: functioning that full capacity. 132 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 1: I will say there, it is certainly not hard to 133 00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:14,080 Speaker 1: draw the connections as to why they look like the 134 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 1: forty nine Ers offense. But I the way I see it, 135 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:20,880 Speaker 1: I'm looking at the Patriots and how they were able 136 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:23,840 Speaker 1: to just Romandre Stevenson and Damian Harris their way into 137 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 1: overtime in that game. And then the next week you 138 00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:29,599 Speaker 1: have the Giants. Saquon Barkley. You can lean heavily on 139 00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 1: him with a GIMPI mac Jones because this team is 140 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 1: thirtieth in rush dvoa on defense, Michael, They're bad against 141 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:39,520 Speaker 1: the run, and you know the Jets are gonna want 142 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:42,520 Speaker 1: to run the football. That's how they're gonna help protect 143 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 1: Zach Wilson. Again, I am going into this game fully 144 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:48,080 Speaker 1: knowing what is going to happen. I already have the 145 00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:49,880 Speaker 1: final score in front of me, and it is the 146 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 1: It is simply the fact that I will bet on 147 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:54,599 Speaker 1: the Jets this week because I will tell myself that 148 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:56,719 Speaker 1: seven points is too many with a Packers team that 149 00:06:56,760 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 1: can't cover to save their lives and is significantly down 150 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:01,600 Speaker 1: from Land year and they were about to blow the 151 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:03,800 Speaker 1: Jets out by forty. I know it's coming, and I'm 152 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 1: still gonna bet on the Jets in this. 153 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:08,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't know. I don't think the Jets can 154 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 4: run the way that the Patriots can run, in the 155 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 4: way that Saguon Barkley can run. 156 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:15,200 Speaker 3: That's fair. Although brisall look good. Michael Carter is a 157 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:18,680 Speaker 3: good back, they don't have the same line. But at 158 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 3: some point, I hear you on the historical trends. At 159 00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:26,560 Speaker 3: some point, I feel like you gotta start seeing it 160 00:07:27,080 --> 00:07:29,600 Speaker 3: this year, and I think their offense has shown that. 161 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:34,040 Speaker 3: But to me, show me the impressive Packers game this year, 162 00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 3: I guess the Bears game and even then. 163 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 1: That that wasn't a game that was one quarter. 164 00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:41,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, well, and that they did they did what they 165 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 3: had to do, and that was week two. But we're 166 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 3: we're three weeks in a row here of just like okay, 167 00:07:46,400 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 3: and I just don't see their defense as a particularly 168 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:52,720 Speaker 3: cohesive unit. They're always pointing at each other. You're like, 169 00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 3: oh what happened. They're not a complicated defense at all. 170 00:07:56,440 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 3: They're just sort of a basic, like we're going to 171 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 3: play you, straight up defense and yet they make a 172 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:03,480 Speaker 3: lot of mental mistakes and I think you can kind 173 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 3: of out physical them, to use a terrible football term. 174 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 3: So I just don't trust the defense as heavy favorites 175 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 3: in any situation. 176 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 4: All that is fair. Just one final item on this, 177 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:17,840 Speaker 4: like show me the impressive when Like I was impressed 178 00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 4: with him going on the road to Tampa Bay and 179 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 4: winning that game. 180 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:24,600 Speaker 3: Right, but Tampa was missing their top three receivers that day. 181 00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:27,880 Speaker 3: It was defensively at least, it was a weird game. 182 00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:31,720 Speaker 3: That was also the first game they were without Donovan Smith. 183 00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:33,440 Speaker 3: Now that you know they've tried to adjust, it was 184 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:34,720 Speaker 3: just there was a lot going on this It's a 185 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:35,240 Speaker 3: weird game. 186 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 4: It was a weird game. But winning on the road 187 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 4: in that situation, like, I still think that was impressive. 188 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 1: I just want to acknowledge the fact that we were 189 00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 1: in Week five of a week six now of an 190 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 1: NFL season in the year twenty twenty two, and we're 191 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:52,440 Speaker 1: talking about the Jets potentially being on the same talent 192 00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:54,320 Speaker 1: level as the Packers. This is what I wanted to 193 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 1: see from this team. There is a trend upwards. It 194 00:08:57,400 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 1: might be slight, but it is something. This is more 195 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:02,640 Speaker 1: hope that I've had in a decade with this team 196 00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:05,040 Speaker 1: right now. But let's move on to another team that 197 00:09:05,520 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 1: actually kind of had some hope going into maybe not 198 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:10,000 Speaker 1: going into this season, but after the first couple of weeks, 199 00:09:10,280 --> 00:09:12,640 Speaker 1: started off real strong and now have slipped the last 200 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 1: two games. The Jags going up against the Colts in 201 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 1: this one. They're two point two and a half to 202 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 1: two point dogs in Indy, where they have they have 203 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 1: owned the Colts in the past couple of times that 204 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:28,199 Speaker 1: we've seen these two teams play. We saw it earlier 205 00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:31,040 Speaker 1: this season already. This is an early second matchup. But 206 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:33,760 Speaker 1: what do you guys make of the Jags. Is this 207 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 1: a team that maybe had a strong start and that 208 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 1: was a little bit of a mirage or are you 209 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 1: saying they lost to the Eagles? Everybody so far has 210 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:43,720 Speaker 1: done that this year. It was a monsoon and then 211 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:46,720 Speaker 1: the Texans game that to me, you can make the 212 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:48,720 Speaker 1: case that that's just one of those weird divisional games. 213 00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:51,200 Speaker 1: They haven't beaten the Texans in four years. That's eight 214 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 1: matchups right there now, nine and it's just those divisional 215 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:57,520 Speaker 1: opponents that have your numbers sometimes, like how we always 216 00:09:57,520 --> 00:09:59,560 Speaker 1: see the Cardinals play the forty nine ers tough and 217 00:09:59,559 --> 00:10:01,839 Speaker 1: the forty niners and Rams. Is that the case or 218 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:04,000 Speaker 1: is Jacksonville You're going, okay, we need to all pump 219 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:05,400 Speaker 1: the brakes on what we saw from this team in 220 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:06,200 Speaker 1: the first couple of weeks. 221 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:10,719 Speaker 3: Greg, I think offensively, you should pump the brakes. Lawrence 222 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:14,560 Speaker 3: is a little erratic with his accuracy. I don't think 223 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:17,239 Speaker 3: they have receivers that can really win on the outside, 224 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:20,160 Speaker 3: Like everything's over the middle of the field, so I 225 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:22,199 Speaker 3: think they're a little limited there. But it's a good 226 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 3: running game. It's an okay offensive line. I just think 227 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 3: that kind of caps their ceiling as like a top ten, 228 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:30,920 Speaker 3: you know, really dangerous type of team. But I love 229 00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 3: them in this game. I mean, this would be one 230 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:38,960 Speaker 3: of my favorite picks because I think the attributes that 231 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:42,320 Speaker 3: helped them embarrass the Colts last year in Week eighteen 232 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:46,000 Speaker 3: and then shut them out five weeks ago are still there. 233 00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:49,839 Speaker 3: And it's basically their defensive line is the best group 234 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:52,280 Speaker 3: in the game, and that the Colts offensive line is 235 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:55,000 Speaker 3: a total mess. And yes, the Colts do have two 236 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:57,480 Speaker 3: receivers back in this game that they didn't have in 237 00:10:57,520 --> 00:10:59,520 Speaker 3: Week two. Pittman and Pierce are their top two receivers, 238 00:10:59,640 --> 00:11:02,080 Speaker 3: they'll be competitive, but at no point in the last 239 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:04,440 Speaker 3: four weeks of the Colts really graduated to me from 240 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:08,439 Speaker 3: anything but the number thirty you know, thirty one offense 241 00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 3: in the league, number thirty two, So to me that 242 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:13,040 Speaker 3: it's a mismatch there. And like I like the Jags 243 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 3: defense a lot better than the Colts offense. It's enough 244 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:18,959 Speaker 3: to believe, like there's a reason they've destroyed them the 245 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 3: last two times. I think they're a better team. I 246 00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:23,320 Speaker 3: think they match up well, and I would take them. 247 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 1: Now, what do you think? 248 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:30,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, I have like a slight lean towards Indy in 249 00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:33,400 Speaker 4: my projections, but like there's no way I'm actually betting 250 00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 4: it because I feel like I feel I haven't adjusted 251 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:40,760 Speaker 4: them down enough in my power ratings and I know that, 252 00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:43,560 Speaker 4: and like to Greg's point, I think that matchup in 253 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:46,719 Speaker 4: the trenches really does benefit the Jags. Like I've been 254 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:50,160 Speaker 4: impressed with their defensive line, and more importantly, I've been 255 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 4: horrified by the Colts offensive line, which used to be 256 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 4: like one of the real strengths of that team and 257 00:11:55,920 --> 00:12:00,160 Speaker 4: then now is just it's in fire. So I don't 258 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:02,880 Speaker 4: don't want any part of backing the colts here. 259 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:07,040 Speaker 1: Matt, you don't have to answer this truthfully, but who 260 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:08,240 Speaker 1: is older you or Matt Ryan? 261 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 2: Uh Me? 262 00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:10,880 Speaker 4: Definitely me. 263 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 2: I was. 264 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, I was at BC when Ryan was there, and 265 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:21,320 Speaker 4: actually yeah, so he he he had like friends who 266 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:25,600 Speaker 4: lived in the same apartment building linemen. Some of his 267 00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:28,280 Speaker 4: linemen lived in the apartment that was right above the 268 00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:31,920 Speaker 4: one that Eden and I had together, And on Saturday nights, 269 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:33,960 Speaker 4: they would go in there and they would play like 270 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:37,040 Speaker 4: the like rock Star, like you remember that game. Yeah, 271 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:39,720 Speaker 4: So they would be playing rock Star till like four 272 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 4: in the morning, and Matt Ryan would be up there 273 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:46,240 Speaker 4: hanging out with them, and like I didn't I didn't 274 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:48,600 Speaker 4: want to go knock on the door and be like, hey, 275 00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:51,080 Speaker 4: you know you guys, can you sort of like kill it, 276 00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 4: like just you know, I'm trying to sleep. So Eden 277 00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:56,440 Speaker 4: would go do it. So like that's my that's my 278 00:12:56,520 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 4: impression or not my impression, but like that that. 279 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 2: On a game night. Was he play in the next 280 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:01,840 Speaker 2: night the next day? 281 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:05,319 Speaker 4: No, this would be after after the game, so it 282 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:08,559 Speaker 4: would be like games on Saturday, and then Saturday night 283 00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:10,920 Speaker 4: they would be partying in the apartment above us. 284 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:13,880 Speaker 1: I love how you would just send your now wife 285 00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 1: who for the audience, this is not a physical you 286 00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 1: would not describe etan as physically intimidating in stature, and 287 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:23,719 Speaker 1: you're sending up there there. 288 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:28,040 Speaker 4: She would will willingly go up there on her own. 289 00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:30,520 Speaker 1: But that should be you Stephan up there. But I 290 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:34,640 Speaker 1: asked the question is could you honestly say that you 291 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:37,560 Speaker 1: would fare that much worse at quarterback right now than 292 00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:40,480 Speaker 1: what's going on in Indy? The is this is just 293 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:43,480 Speaker 1: this is just bad right now. This is now the 294 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:44,839 Speaker 1: place where quarterbacks go to die. 295 00:13:45,880 --> 00:13:48,800 Speaker 4: Honestly, this is surprising because, uh, I mean, I thought 296 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 4: Ryan still had something left after last year, and he 297 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:55,320 Speaker 4: didn't look bad in the preseason, Like he didn't look great, 298 00:13:55,320 --> 00:13:57,080 Speaker 4: but he didn't. He didn't look bad. He looked like 299 00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:00,400 Speaker 4: sort of Philip Rivers level competent. And that's where I 300 00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:02,640 Speaker 4: thought we would see within this offense, and we haven't 301 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:03,360 Speaker 4: gotten that at all. 302 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:04,320 Speaker 1: Now. 303 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:08,520 Speaker 3: If he was in a different situation, yeah he'd look different, 304 00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 3: but he's the last quarterback you want right now with 305 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:14,440 Speaker 3: that offensive line. And Tony Romo was pretty strong on 306 00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:16,400 Speaker 3: that point in the in the game that they upset 307 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:20,280 Speaker 3: the Chiefs of Like, yeah, yeah, he's a veteran in everything, 308 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:24,560 Speaker 3: but it's like hard sledting him picking up this offense 309 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 3: and like getting on the same page in terms of 310 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:29,320 Speaker 3: protection with his offensive line and things like that, making 311 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:31,600 Speaker 3: pre snap calls and who. 312 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:33,520 Speaker 2: Knows that might be a coaching thing, that might just be. 313 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 2: It's a tough fit. But you haven't seen any upswing. 314 00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:40,560 Speaker 3: That's why I hear you on a stay away and look, 315 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:44,520 Speaker 3: Vegas has not adjusted the Colts down too much either. 316 00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:50,040 Speaker 3: Generally each week there, I'm surprised how they're either favored 317 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:52,160 Speaker 3: or close to being favored in these games. So that 318 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 3: surprises me because this season it seems pretty. 319 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:56,320 Speaker 2: Clear to me the Jaggers they're a better team. 320 00:14:56,600 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 4: Yeah. 321 00:14:57,560 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a lot of that bias that people still 322 00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:02,280 Speaker 1: aren't quite ready to get rid of. Guys, real quick, 323 00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:04,480 Speaker 1: I want to talk to you about Sleeper. Sleeper is 324 00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:07,600 Speaker 1: the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions of players. 325 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:10,240 Speaker 1: You probably already have a fantasy league on there. My 326 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 1: friends and I changed over this year and I absolutely 327 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 1: love it. It's a game changing product unlike anything else 328 00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 1: in the industry. And now you can win on Sleeper 329 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:23,320 Speaker 1: by playing their new over undergame it's super simple. First, 330 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 1: in any sport, choose two or more players that you 331 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:28,760 Speaker 1: like and pick the over under for example, rushing yards 332 00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:30,680 Speaker 1: in a football game or number of points in a 333 00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:33,560 Speaker 1: basketball game. Then choose the amount of money you want 334 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:35,960 Speaker 1: to enter into the contest. If you pick correctly, you 335 00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 1: can win anywhere from two times to over twenty times 336 00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:41,200 Speaker 1: the money you put in. The main reason I'm excited 337 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:43,320 Speaker 1: about over under on Sleeper is that it's the only 338 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:46,000 Speaker 1: app where I can join my friend's contests and play together. 339 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:47,920 Speaker 1: It's got a built in group chat where I can 340 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:49,960 Speaker 1: see and copy my group's picks with the tap of 341 00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:53,000 Speaker 1: a button. Along with over under integrated into the fantasy 342 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 1: experience itself, it's insanely fun to ride it out together. 343 00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 1: So stop what you're doing and download Sleeper now to 344 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:02,560 Speaker 1: play their new undergame. Have fun with your friends and 345 00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 1: make some money. Use the promo code Betting Pros when 346 00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 1: you sign up for a Sleeper account today, and Sleeper 347 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 1: will automatically credit your account one hundred dollars to get 348 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:14,000 Speaker 1: you started. In terms of conditions apply see Sleeper dot 349 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:17,000 Speaker 1: com for details. You know we have a couple games 350 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:19,960 Speaker 1: here with some quarterback controversies that are starting to brew 351 00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 1: that really shouldn't be controversies yet, and yet I feel 352 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:25,840 Speaker 1: like we're all just bored, and so we're talking about them. 353 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 1: But all of a sudden, here Bailey, Zappy and Mac Jones, 354 00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:32,240 Speaker 1: same as the Dak Prescott Cooper rush thing, you know, 355 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:35,280 Speaker 1: the actual answer. But then you're looking at what we've 356 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 1: seen the last couple of weeks now, and you're starting 357 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:40,360 Speaker 1: to hear some of those people saying, oh, hey, maybe 358 00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:43,120 Speaker 1: Mac Jones isn't it, and maybe they should be riding 359 00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 1: with ZAPPI I don't think that's the case at all. 360 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:48,880 Speaker 1: But they are three point dogs going into Cleveland here. 361 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 1: And while I'm no longer giving Bill Belichick the benefit 362 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 1: of the doubt where I'm saying, oh, it's Belichick, he'll 363 00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:57,360 Speaker 1: figure it out, but I don't trust this Browns team 364 00:16:57,360 --> 00:16:59,360 Speaker 1: at all. It still goes against my core philosophy of 365 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 1: betting football, which is, don't bet on teams with an 366 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 1: elf on their fifty yard line. And I just don't 367 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:07,399 Speaker 1: think this Browns team is as good as the stats 368 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 1: are kind of saying it easy. If you look at 369 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:12,080 Speaker 1: their DVA their offensive DVOA is way more impressive than 370 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:13,639 Speaker 1: the eye test would lead you to believe, and I 371 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:16,760 Speaker 1: think that's heavily Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt here, what 372 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:18,040 Speaker 1: do you think about this game? 373 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:22,199 Speaker 4: Matt, Yeah, I'm on the Patriots in this spot. Totally 374 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:26,959 Speaker 4: appealing to Greg's homerism here with this pick. But Kevin Stefanski, 375 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,480 Speaker 4: he's eight and sixteen against the spread as a favorite, 376 00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:33,240 Speaker 4: and like that. I feel like that actually makes sense, 377 00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:36,399 Speaker 4: Like when his team is in a situation to play 378 00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:39,040 Speaker 4: with the lead or like they should be winning a game, 379 00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 4: they play much more conservatively and that allows teams to 380 00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:46,639 Speaker 4: get the back door recover. And I think this is 381 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:50,480 Speaker 4: a game where given the run defense, the horrible run 382 00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:54,200 Speaker 4: defense of the of the Browns, we see Ramandre Stevenson 383 00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:57,399 Speaker 4: just totally dominate and both teams are really going to 384 00:17:57,440 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 4: want to run the ball. But the Browns have the 385 00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:02,159 Speaker 4: worst rush defense out of this matchup because they have 386 00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:04,600 Speaker 4: the league's worst rush defense, you know, like thirty two 387 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:07,800 Speaker 4: in rush EPA, thirty two in rush DVA thirty two 388 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:10,800 Speaker 4: and adjusted lineyards And you know, I know, no Damien 389 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 4: Harrison this game. I don't think it's going to matter. 390 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:16,040 Speaker 4: I think that just means more of Remandree Stephenson, who 391 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:19,200 Speaker 4: might actually be the better back anyway. I think he's 392 00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:21,760 Speaker 4: maybe the more complete back. He's the more bruising back, 393 00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:24,119 Speaker 4: you know, even though he's a big guy, he's still 394 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:25,679 Speaker 4: you know, has a three down skill set. He can 395 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:28,520 Speaker 4: still catch the ball pretty well. So and by the way, 396 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 4: the Browns are number twenty eight in defensive DVA against 397 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:36,240 Speaker 4: running backs like through the air, So I think whether 398 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:38,639 Speaker 4: it's Stevenson on the ground or as a receiver on 399 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:42,760 Speaker 4: checkdown passes, I think he's going to dominate. So with 400 00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:45,680 Speaker 4: the Patriots relying more on the ground game, I think 401 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,320 Speaker 4: they keep this pretty close. And I have this at 402 00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 4: one point seventy five versus the two and a half 403 00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 4: or three that you see in the market. 404 00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:57,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you, and it's more of a I'm 405 00:18:57,240 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 3: on the Pats this week, and I haven't been high 406 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:01,399 Speaker 3: on them in general this year, but I think you 407 00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:06,960 Speaker 3: can really see a Patriots like maturation from this team, 408 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:09,640 Speaker 3: where each and every week they're kind of figuring out 409 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:11,920 Speaker 3: what they do well. I actually thought mac Jones threw 410 00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:15,160 Speaker 3: it great on the game against the Ravens. He got hurt, 411 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:19,359 Speaker 3: and defensively, they're starting to figure out their rotations. You know, 412 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:22,120 Speaker 3: Belichick plays a round with personnel. They've almost have too 413 00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:24,879 Speaker 3: many skill position players because none of them are great, 414 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:27,720 Speaker 3: and they're rotating like nine of them, and I think 415 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:31,159 Speaker 3: they're starting to maybe whittle that down. I wouldn't be 416 00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:34,240 Speaker 3: shocked to see way less Nelson Aguilar like maybe even 417 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:37,440 Speaker 3: in an active and more Taekwon Thornton, John new Smith 418 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:39,320 Speaker 3: getting hurt might not be the worst thing for them. 419 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:42,119 Speaker 3: I think they will miss Damien Harris just because I 420 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 3: think it's better to have two than one, and he's 421 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:47,240 Speaker 3: a little more explosive than Stevenson. But you're right, Stevenson 422 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:50,920 Speaker 3: could have a monster game. And there's just something about 423 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:54,120 Speaker 3: this Browns team and the way that they find ways 424 00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:54,719 Speaker 3: to lose. 425 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 2: And I also have last. 426 00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:58,639 Speaker 3: Year's game between these two teams in my head. I 427 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 3: think that's somewhat in just because it's the same coach 428 00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:05,119 Speaker 3: as some similar personnel and that was forty five to seven, 429 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:08,040 Speaker 3: and Belichick just like gave it, gave it to Stefanski. 430 00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:11,879 Speaker 1: Now, I know this might surprise you guys because it's 431 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,760 Speaker 1: very out of character for him, but Bill Belichick has 432 00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:18,359 Speaker 1: been very noncommittal about Mac Jones's injury status. Here so 433 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:21,399 Speaker 1: far limited in practice today, but we don't know who's 434 00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:24,560 Speaker 1: starting at quarterback. Is that going to affect anything for 435 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 1: you guys, or is the difference kind of marginal. It's 436 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:30,359 Speaker 1: not like Mac Jones' is Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady 437 00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 1: or Lamar Jackson where you're gonna be like that's a 438 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:35,200 Speaker 1: significant adjustment to the line. 439 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:39,040 Speaker 4: It is a significant adjustment, Like one is a third 440 00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:41,199 Speaker 4: string rookie quarterback and one was a guy who was 441 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,320 Speaker 4: taken in the first round, who is you know, like 442 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:47,080 Speaker 4: a championship winning quarterback in college and who did pretty 443 00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:50,439 Speaker 4: well as a rookie last year. Like, there's a significant difference. 444 00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:52,640 Speaker 4: But I think it's gonna be Zappy, And if it's not, 445 00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 4: then it's just like best case scenario, if it actually 446 00:20:56,680 --> 00:20:58,960 Speaker 4: ends up being Mac Jones, if he's healthy enough to 447 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:02,359 Speaker 4: be on the field, this line would easily move towards 448 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:06,159 Speaker 4: the Patriots if he played. So I think it's Zapi, 449 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:09,000 Speaker 4: but if it is, if it is Mac, then even 450 00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:10,440 Speaker 4: better at getting the bet. 451 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:12,520 Speaker 3: Now, I don't think people who have been on the 452 00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:15,560 Speaker 3: Zappi train, and it's happening locally too, so that's disproving 453 00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:17,240 Speaker 3: what I'm about to say is like, did you guys 454 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 3: watch did they watch the games? Because he's kind of 455 00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:23,119 Speaker 3: playing on easy mode. He seemed very confused in the 456 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:24,920 Speaker 3: first game, but he was coming in off the bench 457 00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:28,280 Speaker 3: last week. No one got near him in terms of 458 00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:30,479 Speaker 3: a pass rush from Detroit. On the times where they 459 00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:33,040 Speaker 3: did do play action, it was mostly running, like mac 460 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:36,160 Speaker 3: Jones is a much better player. And yet I think 461 00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:38,800 Speaker 3: the Patriots have a real chance to win this game. 462 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:40,959 Speaker 3: I like them to win this game even with Zapy, 463 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:44,000 Speaker 3: So if Jones was in, then yeah, it's gravy and 464 00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:45,120 Speaker 3: I would like him even more. 465 00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:48,879 Speaker 1: Yeah. I'm not saying that experts or people who are 466 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:52,720 Speaker 1: learned in the football realm are saying Zapi should be 467 00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:54,919 Speaker 1: the option instead of mac Jones. I'm saying that it 468 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:58,119 Speaker 1: is the zeitgeist of the general Twitter conversation among the 469 00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 1: mass is you know, you're uninformed, average NFL fan, You're 470 00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:05,399 Speaker 1: Jerry Jones type. That's what I'm saying is making that 471 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,440 Speaker 1: kind of opinion there fair enough. 472 00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:10,480 Speaker 3: You're throwing it out there though, so you got to 473 00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 3: take ownership, that's you. 474 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:14,959 Speaker 1: I am just reporting the facts, my friend. I am 475 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:18,720 Speaker 1: reporting the facts of the situation, and the situation also 476 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:23,840 Speaker 1: has the Panthers as ten point dogs going into Los Angeles. 477 00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:27,040 Speaker 1: I almost said Saint Louis there, But they're going in 478 00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 1: to play the Rams this weekend. And do you give 479 00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,439 Speaker 1: any credit to the new coach or at least the 480 00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:36,480 Speaker 1: fired coach, bump, It's not like they've upgraded. 481 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:37,320 Speaker 2: Steve Wilks is. 482 00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:39,400 Speaker 1: At the helm now, which means Josh Rosen might start 483 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:43,400 Speaker 1: this week. But I can't. I don't want to lay 484 00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:45,600 Speaker 1: ten with the Rams right now because they have not 485 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:49,520 Speaker 1: done anything to inspire me lately. But the Panthers are 486 00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,280 Speaker 1: not great now. You want to talk about backup quarterbacks here, 487 00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,360 Speaker 1: PJ Walker coming in this game the only that might 488 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,000 Speaker 1: actually be a case where maybe he can go out 489 00:22:57,040 --> 00:22:58,960 Speaker 1: and be better than Baker Mayfield. Though, what do you think? 490 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 3: I like the Panthers to keep it closer just on 491 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:07,719 Speaker 3: the principle. I guess I don't have many principles, but 492 00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:09,560 Speaker 3: you know I do the picks every week on NFL 493 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,679 Speaker 3: dot Com, and it's like, don't give bad teams points. 494 00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:14,720 Speaker 3: It's the NFL like a ton of points. And the 495 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:16,600 Speaker 3: Rams are a bad team. I mean, they're one of 496 00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:18,760 Speaker 3: the worst offenses in the league right now. And I 497 00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 3: think they can coach around it. But it's to me, 498 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:24,440 Speaker 3: it's very interesting to see the comparison to a week 499 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:28,720 Speaker 3: ago where the Panthers were only six and a half 500 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:31,439 Speaker 3: point underdogs, to the forty nine Ers, who to me 501 00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:35,280 Speaker 3: are just clearly a superior team right now on both 502 00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:38,520 Speaker 3: sides of the ball, to the Rams defensively and offensively. 503 00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:40,080 Speaker 3: I think the Rams defense is fine, It's why I 504 00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:42,840 Speaker 3: think the Rams will probably win this game. But the 505 00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:45,440 Speaker 3: Rams offensive line is a mess, and they have more 506 00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:46,520 Speaker 3: injuries again this week. 507 00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:48,600 Speaker 2: It's Brian Allen's like injured again. 508 00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:51,399 Speaker 3: David Edwards is in the concussion protocol, like they haven't 509 00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:53,960 Speaker 3: fixed things, and the Panthers defensive personnel's okay. 510 00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:54,840 Speaker 2: It worries me j C. 511 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,920 Speaker 3: Horn might not play in this game, and he's their 512 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:00,119 Speaker 3: best player in the secondary, and they lost Jeremy and 513 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,159 Speaker 3: so they have a lot of injuries too. It's like 514 00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:04,840 Speaker 3: this wouldn't be my first pick in general, but I 515 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,680 Speaker 3: would feel much comfortable not giving ten and a half 516 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 3: points to this Rams team. I say, Steve Wilks, gives 517 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:13,040 Speaker 3: them a little boost. You fire the defensive coordinator. Their 518 00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:16,920 Speaker 3: defensive personnel's okay, like they could hold the Rams under twenty, 519 00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:19,440 Speaker 3: and then at that point it's like you gotta win 520 00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:22,000 Speaker 3: seventeen to six, which is possible, but it's like, I 521 00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:22,719 Speaker 3: don't know. 522 00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:25,000 Speaker 2: I wouldn't be picking that. I'd pick the Panthers. 523 00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:27,800 Speaker 1: My problem is Ben mcadoo's key card is still working 524 00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:29,919 Speaker 1: in that facility, and that's a big red flag for me. 525 00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:34,240 Speaker 3: It's been ugly. It's been tough watching the Panthers offense. 526 00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:37,000 Speaker 3: I'm with you, and the Rams defense is fully capable 527 00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:39,960 Speaker 3: of carrying them for a week. They played fine last week, 528 00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:41,520 Speaker 3: for instance, against the Cowboys. 529 00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 1: Matt Any thoughts on this one. 530 00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:45,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, we talked about this on Tuesday, and I think 531 00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:47,879 Speaker 4: at that time the line was eleven and a half 532 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:49,520 Speaker 4: and we were talking about, God, this is such an 533 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:52,160 Speaker 4: ugly game, but it feels like one that I'm destined 534 00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:54,880 Speaker 4: to pick. Now that it's gone to ten, I really 535 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:56,960 Speaker 4: don't want any part of it. And part of me 536 00:24:57,200 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 4: is like, oh, man, I didn't get that closing line. 537 00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,120 Speaker 4: I should have grabbed it at eleven and a half 538 00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:05,240 Speaker 4: and I'd be feeling really great right now, except I 539 00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 4: wouldn't feel great because I would be betting on the Panthers, which, 540 00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:11,560 Speaker 4: like in theory, like there's I think I think this 541 00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:13,720 Speaker 4: is the right side. I think Greg is right. Like 542 00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:16,480 Speaker 4: I have this projected at nine point twenty five, and 543 00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:18,680 Speaker 4: so I probably should have bet it at eleven and 544 00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:21,240 Speaker 4: a half, especially through the key number of ten. That 545 00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:24,520 Speaker 4: would have made sense based on the numbers. But this 546 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:27,960 Speaker 4: is just such a disgusting team, and like I really 547 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,199 Speaker 4: think that they are one of the worst units in 548 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,760 Speaker 4: the league. And as bad as Baker Mayfield, as bad 549 00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:35,680 Speaker 4: as he has been, I think he's been the worst 550 00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:39,679 Speaker 4: quarterback in the league, he still might be better than PJ. Walker, 551 00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:43,680 Speaker 4: you know, Like I think Walker isn't a huge set down, 552 00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:48,960 Speaker 4: but he might be you know, like maybe this team 553 00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:52,240 Speaker 4: is actually even worse than we think, Like maybe they 554 00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:56,240 Speaker 4: just start the tank now, you know. So I kind 555 00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:59,800 Speaker 4: of don't want to be on a team that looks 556 00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:02,600 Speaker 4: like it's at the front runner for the number one pick, 557 00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:05,920 Speaker 4: you know. So I don't know. I like, I see 558 00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:08,000 Speaker 4: Greg's side, and I think I think it is the 559 00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:11,240 Speaker 4: right side overall. It's just I didn't have the fortitude 560 00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:12,240 Speaker 4: to do it. 561 00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:14,680 Speaker 3: It's also the same time as the Chief Spills game, 562 00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:17,439 Speaker 3: so it's like you really want to be distracting yourself 563 00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:18,359 Speaker 3: with this nonsense. 564 00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:21,440 Speaker 1: Yes exactly, And you know, you bring up a great 565 00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:25,400 Speaker 1: point there, because from a battle of just an absolutely 566 00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:27,919 Speaker 1: horrible offense with a horrible quarterback to going to one 567 00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:30,600 Speaker 1: of the best units in the league. Here in their game, 568 00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,520 Speaker 1: the Seahawks are taking on the Cardinals, and the goat, 569 00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:36,720 Speaker 1: Geno Smith is a two and a half point home 570 00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 1: dog in this contest. It's the second straight Bird matchup 571 00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,800 Speaker 1: for the Cardinals, which I think is definitely something worth 572 00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:46,760 Speaker 1: mentioning there. The Cardinals and the Seahawks. We talked about 573 00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:50,840 Speaker 1: it earlier with the division rivals, that the familiarity they 574 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:54,360 Speaker 1: play each other tough. The Cardinals normally give the Seahawks 575 00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:56,639 Speaker 1: a pretty decent game, but that was back when the 576 00:26:56,640 --> 00:27:00,480 Speaker 1: Seahawks were good, and then now the seaho are just 577 00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:03,119 Speaker 1: suddenly good again this season, just by no one thinking 578 00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:06,280 Speaker 1: that they could be. Can you know Smith sustain this 579 00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:08,359 Speaker 1: for any reasonable length of time? 580 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:12,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean great, I know you're the world's foremost 581 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:17,440 Speaker 4: Geno Smith backer. But I mean I'm I'm not I'm 582 00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:18,440 Speaker 4: not far back spot. 583 00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:20,879 Speaker 2: It's a good spot. I've cast it. 584 00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:22,840 Speaker 3: I don't want to cast in those chips, but I 585 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:24,360 Speaker 3: feel like now's the time to do it. 586 00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:27,399 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean he's top three in a lot of 587 00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:29,400 Speaker 4: different metrics that you would look at, even going back 588 00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:31,639 Speaker 4: to last year, like when he made three spot starts 589 00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,240 Speaker 4: for Russell Wilson, Yeah, he was top He's top three 590 00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:38,080 Speaker 4: with an eight point five Justine arts per attempt, composite EPA, 591 00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:41,600 Speaker 4: and completion percentage over expectation. He's top three there. I 592 00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:44,879 Speaker 4: mean like it's it's his kitchen and he's cooking in 593 00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:47,639 Speaker 4: it in a way that Russell Wilson never was able 594 00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 4: to do. And for the season, the Seahawks are top 595 00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:53,400 Speaker 4: four and most passing efficiency metrics, drop back EPA, drop 596 00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:56,040 Speaker 4: back success rate past TVOA, and they're going against a 597 00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:58,560 Speaker 4: Cardinals defense thom as you mentioned that's really bad bottom 598 00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,399 Speaker 4: six and all those metrics, and he's got, you know, 599 00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:03,600 Speaker 4: I think a top ten pass catching unit, you know, 600 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,760 Speaker 4: anchored with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett going against a 601 00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:11,080 Speaker 4: totally outmatched secondary and you know, as wild as wild 602 00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:14,480 Speaker 4: as this is to say, because Kyler Murray is the better, 603 00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:17,800 Speaker 4: Like objectively, he is the better quarterback, right Like, I 604 00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:21,120 Speaker 4: think he's cleanly a top ten quarterback GINO as well 605 00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,480 Speaker 4: as he's played, he I don't think you can like 606 00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:27,720 Speaker 4: put him in the top ten yet. But Smith has 607 00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:30,960 Speaker 4: been every bit as good as as Murray and maybe 608 00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:33,600 Speaker 4: better than Murray through five games. And I think that's 609 00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:36,240 Speaker 4: because of the playmaking support he gets from his receivers 610 00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,040 Speaker 4: and the play calling support he gets from his coaches, 611 00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:42,360 Speaker 4: because Kyler Murray hasn't gotten any of that play calling support. 612 00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:45,080 Speaker 4: It's basically in the second half when it's like, hey, Kyler, 613 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:49,240 Speaker 4: go do something, and whenever the Cliff Kingsburray shackles have 614 00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,840 Speaker 4: been taken off of Kyler Murray that that Cardinals offense 615 00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:55,840 Speaker 4: is finally able to do something. So I do like 616 00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,520 Speaker 4: the Seahawks in this spot. If the numbers, if the 617 00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:01,000 Speaker 4: numbers three, if the number two and a half where 618 00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,160 Speaker 4: we were seeing them, I think this is a pick them. 619 00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:03,479 Speaker 2: Like. 620 00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:05,920 Speaker 4: I think this should just be straight up pick them. 621 00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:08,880 Speaker 4: So I do like the Seahawks a lot in this spot. 622 00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:11,040 Speaker 3: Oh, you're making me feel better about this one. This 623 00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:13,600 Speaker 3: was one where I would be a stay away. I 624 00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:15,800 Speaker 3: just don't have any feel like the eye test to 625 00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:20,640 Speaker 3: me says the Cardinals have improved on both sides the 626 00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:23,360 Speaker 3: last couple of weeks, that they're getting it together and 627 00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:26,880 Speaker 3: that's like a low bar. But they just seem like 628 00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:30,720 Speaker 3: a more average operation on both sides. That it's not 629 00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:34,600 Speaker 3: a lot of deep shots offensively, but they one really 630 00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:38,400 Speaker 3: kyl Of really won from the pocket against Carolina, which 631 00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:40,840 Speaker 3: I thought was good. It wasn't him kind of making 632 00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:42,880 Speaker 3: things up as he go along. They were very competitive 633 00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,080 Speaker 3: last week. Their defense, which I thought was just a 634 00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:47,840 Speaker 3: tire fire to start the season, definitely looks better with 635 00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:51,840 Speaker 3: JJ Watt back, and now they're playing Simmons again full time, 636 00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:54,480 Speaker 3: and he just like, look okay, And I've become a 637 00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:57,520 Speaker 3: Seahawks fan this year because of Gino, and it does 638 00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:00,040 Speaker 3: worry me, Like Gino can't play much better than he 639 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:00,440 Speaker 3: he's played the. 640 00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:01,200 Speaker 2: Last three weeks. 641 00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:05,040 Speaker 3: You said, like you said he's better better than Kyler, Well, yeah, 642 00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:06,880 Speaker 3: for sure. I mean he's been better than God, He's 643 00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:10,720 Speaker 3: been better than like really, the only quarterbacks you could 644 00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:12,480 Speaker 3: make a case that have been better than him this 645 00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:18,719 Speaker 3: year are Josh Allen and Mahomes and maybe Hurts and Lamar. 646 00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:22,360 Speaker 2: But like that's it, Like that's that's the whole list. 647 00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:25,360 Speaker 3: And yet the last three weeks it's like you lose 648 00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:28,400 Speaker 3: to the Falcons, you scrape by against the Lions in 649 00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:30,240 Speaker 3: a game in the forties and you lose to a 650 00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:32,560 Speaker 3: kind of a bumbling Saints team. So it's like he's 651 00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:35,200 Speaker 3: having to play at that high a level just for 652 00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:38,760 Speaker 3: those results. Like, is bothersome to me? Because is he 653 00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:41,160 Speaker 3: going to stay at that level forever? That's a it's 654 00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:43,400 Speaker 3: a lot to ask. I ended up picking the Cardinals 655 00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:46,200 Speaker 3: in this game, but I don't feel good about it 656 00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:48,440 Speaker 3: either way. I just feel like they have a little 657 00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:52,400 Speaker 3: more talent. The Seahawks defense just seems Yeah, it's like that. 658 00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:54,360 Speaker 3: I just have a hard time picking them in any 659 00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:55,480 Speaker 3: game because of their defense. 660 00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:56,040 Speaker 4: Yeah. 661 00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:57,800 Speaker 1: I mean, I get to the Lions of the highest 662 00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:00,200 Speaker 1: scoring team in the league right now, but you at 663 00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:03,640 Speaker 1: them without Amanra or DeAndre Swift put up forty five 664 00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:07,360 Speaker 1: points on you. That's a red flag, right, That's not 665 00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:10,560 Speaker 1: ideal in any sense. Although who knew? We all thought 666 00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:13,040 Speaker 1: that this Seahawks team was gearing up for a tank athon, 667 00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:15,480 Speaker 1: and it turned out that Pete Cawlees knew that he 668 00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:17,160 Speaker 1: had to get rid of Russell Wilson and bring a 669 00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:19,600 Speaker 1: quarterback who could actually handle the pass heavy offense he 670 00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:23,200 Speaker 1: wanted to put out there the whole time. Who knew guys, 671 00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:25,520 Speaker 1: real quick, remember when you're looking for free picks and 672 00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,920 Speaker 1: sports betting advice, Bettingpros dot com has you covered with 673 00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:31,480 Speaker 1: tips from over one hundred and fifty experts to make 674 00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:34,200 Speaker 1: it easy for you to cash out. Download the app 675 00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:36,720 Speaker 1: to get sports betting alerts. You'll get notified of favorable 676 00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:40,800 Speaker 1: bets based online movements, consensus picks from the most accurate experts, 677 00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:44,120 Speaker 1: and vetted systems in play. Betting Pros monitors all of 678 00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:47,680 Speaker 1: the major sports books, most accurate experts, and top systems 679 00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:52,040 Speaker 1: to identify the best betting opportunities. So download today in 680 00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:56,000 Speaker 1: the Apple or Google Play stores. Now, the next game 681 00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:58,960 Speaker 1: up here, guys. Bothers me that this is the primetime 682 00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:00,800 Speaker 1: game and not the Bills chief game, which we'll get 683 00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:04,360 Speaker 1: to after. But I do understand why. I understand the 684 00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:08,120 Speaker 1: rules of networking and how the Chiefs Bills game was 685 00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:11,840 Speaker 1: one thousand percent protected from this, and so NBC was like, oh, well, 686 00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,000 Speaker 1: let's get the Eagles and the Cowboys and fource feed 687 00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:17,760 Speaker 1: everybody and at least good NFC East matchup this time 688 00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:19,560 Speaker 1: around instead of some of the ones that we've had 689 00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:21,880 Speaker 1: to endure over the past couple of years. Here, but 690 00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:25,480 Speaker 1: the Eagles are laying six right now in this spot 691 00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:28,280 Speaker 1: against the Cowboys. Looks like it's still going to be 692 00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:30,600 Speaker 1: Cooper Rush. Dak Prescott's trying as hard as he can 693 00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:32,640 Speaker 1: to get back on the field. Here. He reminds me 694 00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:34,720 Speaker 1: of a story my dad would tell me of the 695 00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,120 Speaker 1: time when he was in high school playing football and 696 00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:39,280 Speaker 1: he broke his arm and he cut off the cast 697 00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:41,400 Speaker 1: with a saws all so he could play in the 698 00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:45,240 Speaker 1: big game against Seaton Hall that week, and they got destroyed, 699 00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:48,920 Speaker 1: but he scored the only touchdown. But that's what Dak 700 00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:51,360 Speaker 1: Prescott's doing right now. He's seeing Cooper Rush out there 701 00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:53,200 Speaker 1: winning games, and he's like, oh God, I got to 702 00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:55,600 Speaker 1: get back on the field no matter how bad my 703 00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:59,200 Speaker 1: hand is right now. Can the Cowboys do something here? 704 00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:01,840 Speaker 1: The Eagles, they're they're obviously one of the great teams 705 00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:03,560 Speaker 1: right now. They're they're the only five and zero team. 706 00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:07,280 Speaker 1: I do think these birds are real, but I am 707 00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:09,920 Speaker 1: not too optimistic because they aren't that great against the spread. 708 00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:13,000 Speaker 1: They're letting teams back into games. Six points feels like 709 00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:14,880 Speaker 1: a lot in this spot against the Cowboys team that 710 00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:17,080 Speaker 1: has not been bad even without the quarterback. 711 00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:23,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I'm on the Eagles in this spot, 712 00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:26,400 Speaker 4: but I first betted at five. I bet it in 713 00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:28,840 Speaker 4: the look ahead market. I don't want to touch it 714 00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:32,000 Speaker 4: at six, so you know I will stay away from 715 00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:34,400 Speaker 4: it at the current number. But I do have this 716 00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:37,320 Speaker 4: projected at six point seventy five, so you know, slight 717 00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:40,880 Speaker 4: lean at this current number towards the Eagles. But it's 718 00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:43,000 Speaker 4: not like I'm rushing out to bet it at this point. 719 00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:46,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm a little worried here, as you were talking. 720 00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:49,520 Speaker 3: My first instinct and it feels like probably what the 721 00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:52,280 Speaker 3: public's kind of think too, is like it six is 722 00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:55,680 Speaker 3: too much to give to the Cowboys, like the Cowboys 723 00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:56,240 Speaker 3: are too good. 724 00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:59,880 Speaker 1: It actually gets worse now. I just checked the line 725 00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:01,160 Speaker 1: to move to six and a half. 726 00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:03,880 Speaker 3: Okay, so I guess I'm wrong. Maybe people are going 727 00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:07,160 Speaker 3: for the Eagles. I don't really know, but because my 728 00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:09,120 Speaker 3: first instinct is just like that's too much, the Cowboys 729 00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:12,799 Speaker 3: have just earned my respect. But I also could see 730 00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:15,959 Speaker 3: this as a spot where Eagles are at home. 731 00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:18,240 Speaker 2: I don't think they played their best last week. 732 00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:24,120 Speaker 3: They are capable of running right through that Cowboys defensive line. 733 00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:27,040 Speaker 3: They're so good rushing the passer, but they haven't played 734 00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:29,919 Speaker 3: against an offensive line this good. What makes them good 735 00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:31,560 Speaker 3: is that they have four guys who can do it. 736 00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:34,640 Speaker 3: I mean Lawrence and Parsons. That's the best tandem there 737 00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:38,319 Speaker 3: is yet Odigi Zua is getting after it and like 738 00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:40,360 Speaker 3: Dante Fowler was getting in the mix last week. They 739 00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:43,359 Speaker 3: really have four or five guys. Armstrong has been good 740 00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:46,719 Speaker 3: for them, so it's a great matchup up front. It's 741 00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:50,080 Speaker 3: just hard to imagine Cooper rush and then winning the 742 00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:51,080 Speaker 3: battles on the outside. 743 00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:52,840 Speaker 2: James Bradbury's played great. 744 00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:55,440 Speaker 3: So I'm kind of talking myself out of my first instinct, 745 00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:58,120 Speaker 3: which in the one that's on NFL dot Com, which 746 00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:01,720 Speaker 3: is Cowboys. I think losing by five, like I pretty 747 00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:04,360 Speaker 3: much played it right down the middle, but keeping it 748 00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:07,399 Speaker 3: under that six number just because their defense is so good. 749 00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:09,359 Speaker 2: But my heart's my heart's not in it. 750 00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:11,440 Speaker 3: If I think if I if I was forced to 751 00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,560 Speaker 3: actually uh put money on it, and I'm not allowed 752 00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:17,799 Speaker 3: to work for the NFL, so it's all hypothetical for me. 753 00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:20,319 Speaker 3: I probably feel better about the Eagles ultimately, if I 754 00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:21,040 Speaker 3: had to pick one. 755 00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:26,960 Speaker 1: I hate laying decently large points with a divisional With 756 00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:30,440 Speaker 1: a divisional matchup like It just feels like in the NFL, 757 00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:33,920 Speaker 1: when you have familiarity with your opponent like that, you're 758 00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:36,320 Speaker 1: you're so much more prone to this game being closer 759 00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:37,560 Speaker 1: than you think, just because these teams. 760 00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,359 Speaker 3: Although there is like track track records, I do think 761 00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:42,160 Speaker 3: matter in this case. And I could be wrong, but 762 00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:44,239 Speaker 3: I feel like the Eagles have did a nice job 763 00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:46,840 Speaker 3: last year against Syria against the Cowboys. 764 00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:48,640 Speaker 2: But might be talking out of my butt. 765 00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:52,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, and to Tom to your point about divisions, 766 00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:55,760 Speaker 4: you know, like home field advantage doesn't. 767 00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:59,760 Speaker 3: Like I want to correct myself. The Cowboys smoked them twice. 768 00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:02,560 Speaker 3: Why was when they've rested their starters in week eighteen, 769 00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:04,520 Speaker 3: so it means nothing. But they did smoke them earlier 770 00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:06,960 Speaker 3: in the season before the Eagles got going, So I'm 771 00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:07,400 Speaker 3: an idiot. 772 00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:08,279 Speaker 2: I just wanted to correct me. 773 00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:13,239 Speaker 1: So all right, thanks for then, thanks for the update there. 774 00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:14,839 Speaker 1: We'll let it slide on you this time. You've got 775 00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:16,279 Speaker 1: a lot to think about. You don't have to worry 776 00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:18,640 Speaker 1: about the Cowboys and the Eagles matching up because, let's 777 00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:21,080 Speaker 1: face it, that hasn't been a matchup with looking at 778 00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:21,719 Speaker 1: for a little while. 779 00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:23,919 Speaker 4: We could we could edit that out, but we won't. 780 00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:25,440 Speaker 4: We're just gonna leave it the way it was. 781 00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:26,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm fine. 782 00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:28,120 Speaker 2: I'm fine with that. I'm fine with it. 783 00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:30,680 Speaker 3: It's a different Eagles team though, But I wouldn't feel 784 00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:31,440 Speaker 3: I wouldn't feel good. 785 00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:33,120 Speaker 2: This Cowboys team is too good. 786 00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:35,840 Speaker 3: I feel like they're like, this is not one of 787 00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:38,560 Speaker 3: those NFCS matchups. This is a great matchup to these 788 00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:42,799 Speaker 3: are if I was doing power rankings, like considering Dak 789 00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:44,719 Speaker 3: will come back, I would say these are two of 790 00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:48,480 Speaker 3: the most you know, three or four most likely teams 791 00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:49,400 Speaker 3: to make the Super. 792 00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:51,560 Speaker 2: Bowl in the NFC. That would I would put them 793 00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:52,280 Speaker 2: in that group. 794 00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:56,600 Speaker 4: Right, Okay, let's that's an interesting statement. Let's tom, We're 795 00:36:56,600 --> 00:37:01,040 Speaker 4: gonna go on the little side road here for us. Yes, okay, 796 00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:04,279 Speaker 4: so three or four most teams in the NFC to 797 00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:06,840 Speaker 4: make the Super Bowl? Yeah, all right, So let's assume 798 00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:14,720 Speaker 4: that Tampa Bay is up there, right, Yeah, yeah, obviously Seattle. 799 00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:17,279 Speaker 3: I don't know if assuming Tampa Bay, they've they've got 800 00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:20,080 Speaker 3: some The Eagles, certainly, I'm assuming they're up there because 801 00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:22,160 Speaker 3: they were my Super Bowl championship pick before the year, 802 00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:23,399 Speaker 3: which is feeling good right now. 803 00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:25,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, so you have but you know, you have the 804 00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:29,320 Speaker 4: Eagles and the Cowboys up there, assuming the normal return 805 00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:33,160 Speaker 4: of Dak Prescott. Uh so, Tampa Bay would be in 806 00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:36,359 Speaker 4: the running to be in the top four. San Francisco 807 00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:40,000 Speaker 4: would be in the running to be in the top four. Uh. 808 00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:44,400 Speaker 4: You know, but then after that it gets a little 809 00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:46,759 Speaker 4: it gets a little dicey. I would have Green Bay 810 00:37:46,840 --> 00:37:48,759 Speaker 4: up there, but some people want it based on how 811 00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:49,600 Speaker 4: they've looked. 812 00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:52,200 Speaker 3: So fifth, So that the list you just said would 813 00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:54,480 Speaker 3: have been my list. I would have had the Eagles first, 814 00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:58,920 Speaker 3: and I would have the Cowboys, and it's a you know, 815 00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:01,480 Speaker 3: whoever wins at the I mean, this is a big game. 816 00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:03,960 Speaker 3: It is really important because the ODDA divisions get is 817 00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:06,400 Speaker 3: good and in San Francisco would probably be next, and 818 00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:09,960 Speaker 3: then Tampa would be would be you know, Tampa, and 819 00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:13,400 Speaker 3: the NFC East loser probably Dallas would be fourth, you know, 820 00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:14,040 Speaker 3: third and fourth. 821 00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:17,480 Speaker 1: For me, Okay, I still maintain my preseason take that 822 00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:19,440 Speaker 1: the forty nine ers are a bad football team. 823 00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:22,239 Speaker 2: I don't know, no, I just. 824 00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:24,040 Speaker 1: I will never I will never trust them. They managed 825 00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:27,000 Speaker 1: to luff box themselves out of every situation. The defense 826 00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:27,680 Speaker 1: very real. 827 00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:28,359 Speaker 3: Uh. 828 00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:31,239 Speaker 1: My take was mostly based off of the fact that 829 00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:34,239 Speaker 1: I don't trust Trey Lance at all. Obviously that ship 830 00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:37,160 Speaker 1: is now sailed, but Jimmy g is still not a 831 00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:39,440 Speaker 1: good quarterback and you're still winning games in spite of 832 00:38:39,520 --> 00:38:41,960 Speaker 1: him and not because of him, and that keeps them 833 00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:43,799 Speaker 1: from being a team that can really ascend to that 834 00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:44,359 Speaker 1: top level. 835 00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:49,040 Speaker 4: For me, yeah, yeah, you know, I think I think 836 00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:55,239 Speaker 4: Garoppolo is serviceable within the Shanahan's game. Like, yeah, I 837 00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:57,000 Speaker 4: don't think he would work well with a lot of 838 00:38:57,080 --> 00:39:00,759 Speaker 4: other coaches, but I think he's good enough within that system. 839 00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:02,799 Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a reason no one else wanted him. 840 00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:05,879 Speaker 4: Well it's the injury too, that didn't help. 841 00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:10,879 Speaker 1: Yeah, but still the team is better with him at 842 00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:12,600 Speaker 1: the helm than Trey Lance. I'll give them that. The 843 00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:14,560 Speaker 1: people preseason and we're going, oh, this is a super 844 00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:16,960 Speaker 1: Bowl team with Trey Lance. No, you ain't. You're not 845 00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:17,839 Speaker 1: a super Bowl team. 846 00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:19,160 Speaker 4: And I wanted to see. 847 00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:21,840 Speaker 2: It at least. I don't think we can, Like we know, 848 00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:23,040 Speaker 2: we haven't seen anything. 849 00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:25,920 Speaker 3: We don't know, we don't know, but I I think 850 00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:29,160 Speaker 3: it's worth not like people gave Baker so many passes 851 00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:31,680 Speaker 3: last year for playing through that injury. I mean, Jimmy 852 00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:35,200 Speaker 3: Garoppolo was playing through an injured shoulder that required surgery, 853 00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:37,480 Speaker 3: and he played the worst football of his life, I 854 00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:39,399 Speaker 3: would say, and. 855 00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:40,839 Speaker 2: They still almost made the Super Bowl. 856 00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:43,560 Speaker 3: So if you just get like I think you can 857 00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:46,120 Speaker 3: get a better version of Jimmy g which is still boring, 858 00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:47,880 Speaker 3: and I agree with you. I'd probably put them a 859 00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:50,200 Speaker 3: tick below the top team is because of him, But 860 00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:51,960 Speaker 3: to me, they would be in the rest of the 861 00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:55,120 Speaker 3: team is so good. I love their offensive, you know, 862 00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:57,759 Speaker 3: pass catchers that they would be in that like three 863 00:39:57,760 --> 00:39:59,320 Speaker 3: to four range for me in the NFC. 864 00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:00,799 Speaker 2: But the Cowboys would too. 865 00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:04,520 Speaker 3: The Cowboys have probably like improve their odds in my 866 00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:08,000 Speaker 3: mind of making a playoff run more than just about 867 00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:09,960 Speaker 3: any team because of how they've looked. 868 00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:16,160 Speaker 4: Yeah, Greg quick, quick aside here. So Dak Prescott coming back, 869 00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:18,960 Speaker 4: what do you think the difference is in terms of 870 00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:23,480 Speaker 4: like points added to the team between Dak Prescott and 871 00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:27,400 Speaker 4: Cooper Rush. Would you say four points? Five points? 872 00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:33,759 Speaker 3: Yeah, that seems like what a quality starting quarterback difference 873 00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:37,080 Speaker 3: to a good backup would be. I think I think 874 00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:41,280 Speaker 3: it's very significant. I'm not really projecting forward that Dak's 875 00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:44,080 Speaker 3: gonna struggle because he struggled in Week one. I'm I'm 876 00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:46,680 Speaker 3: looking at what they've done offensively and being encouraged that 877 00:40:46,719 --> 00:40:49,520 Speaker 3: you put Dak in there and it's gonna be better 878 00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:51,919 Speaker 3: and hopefully better than it was down the stretch last 879 00:40:51,920 --> 00:40:52,399 Speaker 3: season too. 880 00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:55,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, So I'm I'm eyeballing this now looking at my 881 00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:59,120 Speaker 4: power ratings, and I think it's five points. But Cooper 882 00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:02,239 Speaker 4: rush Is recent has made me reevaluate that just a 883 00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:05,080 Speaker 4: little bit. But I think it's five points. And if 884 00:41:05,080 --> 00:41:08,160 Speaker 4: we add that five points of Dak coming back to 885 00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:12,120 Speaker 4: this team, then yeah, I think they are probably power 886 00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:16,239 Speaker 4: rated above the Rams, above the Packers, close to the 887 00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:19,160 Speaker 4: forty nine ers, not quite to the level of the Eagles, 888 00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:22,120 Speaker 4: but they're in that mix with Dak. If they are 889 00:41:22,160 --> 00:41:22,920 Speaker 4: in that mix. 890 00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:29,759 Speaker 3: Improved too, Yeah, it's crazy they Parsons is like a 891 00:41:29,800 --> 00:41:34,640 Speaker 3: transformational guy, and they have great continuity and youth at 892 00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:37,239 Speaker 3: the same time in the secondary, and Quinn is like 893 00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,759 Speaker 3: he's just mixing it up. I think they have, not 894 00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:43,640 Speaker 3: that they're patriotsy at all, but their defense reminds me 895 00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:46,920 Speaker 3: a little bit this sweet spot. When you have a 896 00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:49,719 Speaker 3: good coach and you have youth and continuity at the 897 00:41:49,719 --> 00:41:51,760 Speaker 3: same time, you can do a lot of things. Changing 898 00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:53,319 Speaker 3: what you're going to do week to week, and they've 899 00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:55,560 Speaker 3: been I think, very difficult to prepare for. But they 900 00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:59,520 Speaker 3: also haven't played, like I said before, great offenses or 901 00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:00,560 Speaker 3: great off line. 902 00:42:00,600 --> 00:42:02,440 Speaker 2: So this this week will be a great test. 903 00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:05,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting you say, good coach though, because let's 904 00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:08,799 Speaker 1: face it, Mike McCarthy hasn't been making positive headlines since 905 00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:09,279 Speaker 1: his ride. 906 00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:11,879 Speaker 3: Now I'm talking more dan Quinn in this specific case, 907 00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:13,879 Speaker 3: but they've been pretty well coached overall this year. 908 00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:15,759 Speaker 2: You got to give it to him now. 909 00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:18,480 Speaker 1: Bringing it all the way back from ours side, from rsside, 910 00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:21,360 Speaker 1: from our side, the final game that we want to 911 00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:23,680 Speaker 1: talk about here, the Chiefs and the Bills. This is, 912 00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:26,440 Speaker 1: of course the second biggest matchup of the week, behind 913 00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:30,279 Speaker 1: the Commander's Bears matchup that won't really be relevant by 914 00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:35,160 Speaker 1: the time this show comes out, But Chiefs Bills. This 915 00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:39,160 Speaker 1: is an AFC Championship preview in most people's minds here, 916 00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:42,480 Speaker 1: and the stakes are very very real, because odds are 917 00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:44,759 Speaker 1: the winner of this game is the one who gets 918 00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:48,359 Speaker 1: to host that game most likely, or at least maybe 919 00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:50,840 Speaker 1: not most likely, but you know that's on people's minds 920 00:42:50,920 --> 00:42:53,040 Speaker 1: right now. The Chiefs are getting two and a half 921 00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:56,960 Speaker 1: at home in this one, And I mean, I get it. 922 00:42:57,360 --> 00:42:59,920 Speaker 1: The Bills are a buzz saw, but they're a buzzsaw 923 00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:02,719 Speaker 1: that's got a few broken little blades in there on 924 00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:05,680 Speaker 1: the secondary that can be exploited. I mean, it feels 925 00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:08,359 Speaker 1: like we're destined for a barn burner here and we're 926 00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:11,320 Speaker 1: all hoping that this is just exactly like that playoff 927 00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:14,440 Speaker 1: matchup last year. But where are you guys going? I 928 00:43:14,480 --> 00:43:16,759 Speaker 1: have a hard time taking I have a hard time 929 00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:19,160 Speaker 1: not taking points with the Chiefs, and I have a 930 00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:21,400 Speaker 1: hard time betting against the Bills, and it's making me 931 00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:24,040 Speaker 1: not know where I want to go in this Greg 932 00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:25,000 Speaker 1: any thoughts. 933 00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:29,120 Speaker 3: I don't have a strong feeling I would definitely stay away. 934 00:43:29,560 --> 00:43:32,279 Speaker 3: I'm with you that my first instinct was, just like 935 00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:36,040 Speaker 3: Mahomes as a home underdog. I'm just, by principle on 936 00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:38,319 Speaker 3: a game that I don't have a good feel for, 937 00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:41,680 Speaker 3: would take that. But it's also one of those Okay, 938 00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:44,120 Speaker 3: I'm taking that, But in my heart, I feel like 939 00:43:44,200 --> 00:43:48,040 Speaker 3: I know the Bills are a better team overall, that 940 00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:51,960 Speaker 3: they're more balanced, that their defense is absolutely better than 941 00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:54,920 Speaker 3: the Chiefs defense, and so I don't feel good about 942 00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:56,640 Speaker 3: it whatsoever. 943 00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:58,520 Speaker 2: But forced to choose. 944 00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:01,799 Speaker 3: I still would probably lean my Homes, but it's like 945 00:44:01,960 --> 00:44:04,200 Speaker 3: most games, you think, okay, Mahomes, what an advantage, and 946 00:44:04,239 --> 00:44:06,200 Speaker 3: he's playing at an MVP level. These are the two 947 00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:09,759 Speaker 3: top MVP candidates, I would say through five weeks, so 948 00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:11,560 Speaker 3: you don't even feel like you have a big advantage 949 00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:12,920 Speaker 3: at quarterback, which is crazy. 950 00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:16,920 Speaker 1: I can't remember if it was this show's Tuesday episode 951 00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:18,800 Speaker 1: or a show that I was edding with you, Matt 952 00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:22,920 Speaker 1: and Pat Fitzmorris on where someone made the point about 953 00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:26,760 Speaker 1: Andy Reid and the Chiefs that some games it feels 954 00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:29,799 Speaker 1: like they have two playbooks. They have the We're going 955 00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:32,320 Speaker 1: all out playbook and we don't want to show anybody 956 00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:34,919 Speaker 1: anything playbook. Yeah, and it feels like the Raiders game 957 00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:36,839 Speaker 1: was that we don't want to show anybody anything because 958 00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:39,960 Speaker 1: we've got to get big game against the Bills next week. Matt, 959 00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:43,480 Speaker 1: how much are you factoring that into saying, Okay, the 960 00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:46,120 Speaker 1: Raiders game on Monday night, Maybe that was a little 961 00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:47,960 Speaker 1: bit of a fluke, that was the Raiders really getting 962 00:44:48,040 --> 00:44:50,080 Speaker 1: up for that game. And the other factor is, how 963 00:44:50,120 --> 00:44:51,839 Speaker 1: do you think that the short rest going into playing 964 00:44:51,880 --> 00:44:52,839 Speaker 1: the Bills is going to matter? 965 00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:56,479 Speaker 4: I mean, I think it matters. I've taken that into 966 00:44:56,520 --> 00:45:00,839 Speaker 4: account in my projections. I have this, I don't know, 967 00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:03,759 Speaker 4: it's discussing, and I'm probably wrong, but I do have 968 00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:06,160 Speaker 4: the Chiefs as a slight favorite. I have him as 969 00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:09,799 Speaker 4: a one point favorite here, and my Galaxy brain is 970 00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:13,200 Speaker 4: just like, Okay, Patrick Mahomes. I still think he's the 971 00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:15,839 Speaker 4: number one quarterback in the league. Josh Allen is right 972 00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:18,319 Speaker 4: up there, but I think Mahomes is still slightly the 973 00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:22,719 Speaker 4: better quarterback. I think Andy Reid, even though he has 974 00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:25,640 Speaker 4: questionable decision making at times, in terms of a schemer, 975 00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:29,960 Speaker 4: he's unrivaled. I think he's the better coach in this game. 976 00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:34,839 Speaker 4: And they're going against a defense that has at least 977 00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:37,600 Speaker 4: been injured to this point. They might get a number 978 00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:40,239 Speaker 4: of those players back, but they're still without their number 979 00:45:40,280 --> 00:45:43,800 Speaker 4: one quarterback, Tredavius White. They're still without their free safety 980 00:45:44,120 --> 00:45:47,400 Speaker 4: Micah Hyde, you know, and there's no guarantee that some 981 00:45:47,440 --> 00:45:49,920 Speaker 4: of those other guys in the secondary end up coming 982 00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:53,000 Speaker 4: back this week. So yeah, if you give me the 983 00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:56,520 Speaker 4: opportunity to take Patrick Mahomes as an underdog, I will 984 00:45:56,520 --> 00:45:58,560 Speaker 4: do it. He's seven to zero to one against the 985 00:45:58,600 --> 00:46:02,440 Speaker 4: spread as an underdog he's He's literally undefeated against the 986 00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:06,080 Speaker 4: spread as an underdog. Like anytime that the market has 987 00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:09,120 Speaker 4: looked at Mahomes and said, no, we're gonna go against 988 00:46:09,239 --> 00:46:12,000 Speaker 4: him with this other guy, the market has been wrong. 989 00:46:12,200 --> 00:46:14,279 Speaker 2: Were they Were they in the playoff game last year? 990 00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:17,080 Speaker 3: I'm trying to think they definitely were favored against the 991 00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:19,920 Speaker 3: Bills in Week five last year and the Bills smoked him, 992 00:46:20,239 --> 00:46:23,680 Speaker 3: so that you know that having that history that like, okay, 993 00:46:23,800 --> 00:46:25,839 Speaker 3: we've seen it, and that was they had that game 994 00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:29,000 Speaker 3: plan that made everyone question what are the Chiefs going 995 00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:31,760 Speaker 3: to do to fix things? And I think the Chiefs 996 00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:34,719 Speaker 3: last year has been in part almost like reacting to 997 00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:37,000 Speaker 3: that game in that defensive style, and they've become very 998 00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:39,040 Speaker 3: good at it. They are a good station to station 999 00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:42,520 Speaker 3: offense when they need to be there, better at running 1000 00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:45,440 Speaker 3: the ball. When I saw the injury report, because my 1001 00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:47,839 Speaker 3: initial pick was Chiefs, I needed to put it in 1002 00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:51,600 Speaker 3: even before the first injury reports out, and like so 1003 00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:53,919 Speaker 3: many Bills are coming back for this game, it got 1004 00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:56,719 Speaker 3: me thinking, like I don't know, like the head says 1005 00:46:56,719 --> 00:47:01,000 Speaker 3: Bills even though my heart says Chiefs. Because players likely back. Yeah, 1006 00:47:01,120 --> 00:47:04,400 Speaker 3: Dawson Knox is likely back Isaiah McKenzie's likely back at 1007 00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:05,680 Speaker 3: Oliver has been back. 1008 00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:07,840 Speaker 2: I think Jordan Phillips their defensive lineman. 1009 00:47:07,880 --> 00:47:10,240 Speaker 3: So that's like a lot of players they are getting 1010 00:47:10,280 --> 00:47:12,720 Speaker 3: back in player, especially to have one of their starting 1011 00:47:12,760 --> 00:47:16,080 Speaker 3: safeties is important. So I think they're a better team. 1012 00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:19,319 Speaker 3: And yet I because of everything you said, I wouldn't pick. 1013 00:47:19,320 --> 00:47:20,759 Speaker 2: I would take the Chiefs still in the end. 1014 00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:23,759 Speaker 4: Yeah, and I think I think Kelsey makes a big 1015 00:47:23,800 --> 00:47:26,040 Speaker 4: difference in this game. Like obviously he's the number one 1016 00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:29,279 Speaker 4: pass catcher for that offense, and I think, you know, 1017 00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:33,399 Speaker 4: he had success last year going against the Bills. Let's see, 1018 00:47:33,560 --> 00:47:35,960 Speaker 4: got one hundred and fifty three yards and two touchdowns 1019 00:47:36,040 --> 00:47:39,080 Speaker 4: last year and two games against the Bills on nineteen targets. 1020 00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:42,640 Speaker 4: And there's just something about the way that the Bills 1021 00:47:42,640 --> 00:47:45,000 Speaker 4: are constructed on defense, Like they have a good defense, 1022 00:47:45,440 --> 00:47:49,359 Speaker 4: but they're still seventeenth in defensive success rate drop back 1023 00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:53,759 Speaker 4: success rate, Like they are allowing teams to to like 1024 00:47:53,960 --> 00:47:57,879 Speaker 4: just get little chunk games on them through the passing game, 1025 00:47:57,960 --> 00:48:01,320 Speaker 4: and like that really aligns with the Chiefs are doing 1026 00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:06,719 Speaker 4: this year. So I don't know, it feels like it's 1027 00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:09,239 Speaker 4: like you hear about like Ben but don't break defenses 1028 00:48:09,360 --> 00:48:12,680 Speaker 4: like the Chiefs have a break them by bending them 1029 00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:16,440 Speaker 4: type of offense, and I think they're going against a 1030 00:48:16,600 --> 00:48:20,439 Speaker 4: defense that will allow them to move the ball down 1031 00:48:20,440 --> 00:48:22,840 Speaker 4: the field. 1032 00:48:23,120 --> 00:48:26,640 Speaker 1: This is I really just can't wait to watch this game. 1033 00:48:26,640 --> 00:48:28,080 Speaker 1: I don't think that I'm gonna be able to put 1034 00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:31,160 Speaker 1: a bed in. I think you're right, Matt, I'm inclined 1035 00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:34,680 Speaker 1: to go against that. I'm not inclined to go against Mahomes. 1036 00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:36,600 Speaker 1: I'm inclined to bet on him when I'm getting some 1037 00:48:36,640 --> 00:48:38,879 Speaker 1: points with them. Part of me wants to take the 1038 00:48:39,000 --> 00:48:41,120 Speaker 1: under in this one because the totals at like fifty 1039 00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:44,920 Speaker 1: four right now, and that just feels like a potential 1040 00:48:44,960 --> 00:48:47,480 Speaker 1: play where, you know, if we have a period of 1041 00:48:47,480 --> 00:48:50,319 Speaker 1: time in the game, like third quarter where things just 1042 00:48:50,400 --> 00:48:52,799 Speaker 1: slow down a little bit, you maybe have like a 1043 00:48:52,840 --> 00:48:55,640 Speaker 1: turnover in the red zone or two, all of a 1044 00:48:55,680 --> 00:48:58,200 Speaker 1: sudden you're staring down the barrel of a big sweat 1045 00:48:58,200 --> 00:48:59,560 Speaker 1: to get over in the forth uter. 1046 00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:03,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, they score twenty five points in two minutes like 1047 00:49:03,239 --> 00:49:05,080 Speaker 3: they did at the end of that playoff game, and 1048 00:49:05,239 --> 00:49:08,239 Speaker 3: you're right, they could slow the pace down with like 1049 00:49:08,280 --> 00:49:11,960 Speaker 3: a bunch of long drives. But that that game alone, 1050 00:49:12,120 --> 00:49:15,120 Speaker 3: and look, the regular season won last year when the 1051 00:49:15,160 --> 00:49:17,239 Speaker 3: Chiefs offense was struggling, still went over. 1052 00:49:17,320 --> 00:49:19,719 Speaker 2: That number was thirty eight to twenty. I don't know. 1053 00:49:19,880 --> 00:49:22,760 Speaker 3: I just would be not wanting to root against points 1054 00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:24,080 Speaker 3: in the fourth quarter of this game. 1055 00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:26,840 Speaker 4: I couldn't do it. I can't do it. It's such a 1056 00:49:26,880 --> 00:49:30,279 Speaker 4: high number. And the Bills, with their defense and then 1057 00:49:30,360 --> 00:49:33,120 Speaker 4: their ability to control the ball on offense, they have 1058 00:49:33,320 --> 00:49:36,880 Speaker 4: been an under team this year. But I just still can't. 1059 00:49:37,000 --> 00:49:38,080 Speaker 4: I still can't do it. 1060 00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:41,040 Speaker 3: It wouldn't it wouldn't shock me if the Bill's pass 1061 00:49:41,160 --> 00:49:44,239 Speaker 3: rush was the difference in this game and they win 1062 00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:47,160 Speaker 3: because of that, And it's not that crazy at score 1063 00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:50,480 Speaker 3: to your point, because that's I mentioned. The Cowboys changed 1064 00:49:50,480 --> 00:49:52,880 Speaker 3: how I thought. Weirdly, the Bills have changed how I 1065 00:49:52,920 --> 00:49:55,759 Speaker 3: thought going into the season. I think more than any 1066 00:49:55,840 --> 00:50:00,520 Speaker 3: AFC team because their pass rush is just absolutely. 1067 00:50:00,040 --> 00:50:02,319 Speaker 2: For real and it wasn't there. It was why they 1068 00:50:02,360 --> 00:50:03,520 Speaker 2: lost this game a year. 1069 00:50:03,400 --> 00:50:07,560 Speaker 3: Ago, and it's so good so like to me, their 1070 00:50:07,560 --> 00:50:09,360 Speaker 3: defense is even better than I expected. 1071 00:50:09,400 --> 00:50:09,919 Speaker 2: Long term. 1072 00:50:09,960 --> 00:50:12,279 Speaker 3: Even even if I don't feel strong about this game, 1073 00:50:12,360 --> 00:50:15,359 Speaker 3: I feel like they're they I just can't. They're just 1074 00:50:15,400 --> 00:50:17,399 Speaker 3: gonna be such a tough out in the playoffs. 1075 00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:20,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, this is I mean, this is gonna be a 1076 00:50:20,920 --> 00:50:23,360 Speaker 1: great game. This is a pre preview of hopefully what 1077 00:50:23,400 --> 00:50:26,440 Speaker 1: we get as a rematch in the postseason. I'm excited 1078 00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:29,520 Speaker 1: to watch it. I'm not particularly keen on betting it though, 1079 00:50:29,840 --> 00:50:32,520 Speaker 1: but guys, that is going to do it for us. Craig, 1080 00:50:32,560 --> 00:50:34,759 Speaker 1: thank you so much for the time today. We have 1081 00:50:34,840 --> 00:50:37,399 Speaker 1: definitely kept you long enough here. But where could people 1082 00:50:37,440 --> 00:50:39,320 Speaker 1: find you in the great work you're doing around the internet. 1083 00:50:39,640 --> 00:50:42,919 Speaker 3: Yeah, check the Around the NFL podcast, And I also 1084 00:50:42,960 --> 00:50:44,600 Speaker 3: do a podcast with my comedian friend. 1085 00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:46,000 Speaker 2: His name is Anthony Jesslnick. 1086 00:50:46,040 --> 00:50:49,120 Speaker 3: It's called the Jesselnick and Rosenthal Vanity Project and that's 1087 00:50:50,200 --> 00:50:51,680 Speaker 3: a lot of fun I just try to stay out 1088 00:50:51,680 --> 00:50:53,680 Speaker 3: of his way. Well, well, he's funny, so you can 1089 00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:54,480 Speaker 3: check out that too. 1090 00:50:55,560 --> 00:50:58,160 Speaker 1: He is a fantastic comedian. I love both of your 1091 00:50:58,200 --> 00:51:01,640 Speaker 1: works on both the podcast and the Around the NFL network. 1092 00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:05,239 Speaker 1: Around the NFL podcast. Absolutely a pleasure to have you 1093 00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:08,000 Speaker 1: here with us today. Of course, mad f the Oracle 1094 00:51:08,080 --> 00:51:10,640 Speaker 1: on Twitter you can find him and his and uh 1095 00:51:11,520 --> 00:51:13,640 Speaker 1: all of the fantastic content that you're doing as well. 1096 00:51:13,680 --> 00:51:15,719 Speaker 4: Matt right, Yeah, I mean I don't know if i'd 1097 00:51:15,719 --> 00:51:18,320 Speaker 4: say it's fantastic, but it's good enough. It's good. I'm 1098 00:51:18,400 --> 00:51:21,000 Speaker 4: a top ten ranker right now in the Fantasy Pros contest, 1099 00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:22,560 Speaker 4: so that's uh, that's. 1100 00:51:22,400 --> 00:51:26,640 Speaker 1: Not nothing, not nothing at all. Guys, that's gonna do 1101 00:51:26,680 --> 00:51:29,280 Speaker 1: it for us. Thank you so much for listening today, 1102 00:51:29,719 --> 00:51:32,520 Speaker 1: and of course, let's catch some tickets this weekend.