Speaker 1: Welcome to Zero.
Speaker 2: I'm Oscar Boyd and I'm Christine Driscol.
Speaker 1: We're the producers on zero and we are joined as
Speaker 1: always by our eminent host at Sha Rati. Actually, welcome
Speaker 1: back to London. You've been in Singapore, Australia and India
Speaker 1: visiting and interviewing all sorts of interesting people working in climate.
Speaker 1: How were your travels?
Speaker 3: Oh, really good, energizing, exhausting, surprising, all the things that
Speaker 3: good travel is supposed to be.
Speaker 2: What was the best thing you saw?
Speaker 3: I mean, that's an easy one, because I went to
Speaker 3: the Great Barrier Reef. It's very hard to beat a
Speaker 3: world wonder, which I'd been looking forward to see. The
Speaker 3: other wonder is Singapore. It's a man made wonder and
Speaker 3: that was crazy fun too. I mean, it's the most
Speaker 3: densely populated country in the world, one hundred percent urban,
Speaker 3: and yet it's also a really good place to visit.
Speaker 3: Everything works, cooling is on all the time. We went
Speaker 3: down and saw some cooling projects, including a district cauling
Speaker 3: project which was very interesting. Workers in the basement that
Speaker 3: had huge vats of ice cool using renewable electricity when
Speaker 3: it's available. But yeah, do wonders of the world.
Speaker 2: That's great. So a couple of months ago we introduced
Speaker 2: a new format on Zero, which is our numbers based
Speaker 2: climate guessing game. Because of its wild popularity last time,
Speaker 2: today the game is getting a second outing, and so
Speaker 2: just to quickly recap if this is your first time
Speaker 2: or you've been wowed by Singapore and everything's left your mind.
Speaker 2: There are a lot of climate numbers out there and
Speaker 2: they don't make it onto a full episode of Zero,
Speaker 2: but they do paint a good picture of where we're going,
Speaker 2: and it is a shame to ignore them. So the
Speaker 2: purpose of this game is to highlight our.
Speaker 1: Favorites exactly and to recap. The rules as well. They're
Speaker 1: very simple. Each one of us will present a number
Speaker 1: and then the other two have to figure out what
Speaker 1: that number represents. Each person can ask three questions, You
Speaker 1: can ask for clues if you get stuck, and then
Speaker 1: you have to guess.
Speaker 2: Akshat Do you remember how to play?
Speaker 1: Yeah? It's easy enough.
Speaker 3: As always, I play games only if I have a
Speaker 3: chance to win a prize, and I was a little
Speaker 3: disappointed last time around because you guys gave me a
Speaker 3: carbon credit. Not interested in one of those So what's
Speaker 3: the prize this time?
Speaker 1: Hey, what's wrong with the carbon credit?
Speaker 3: Yeah, you should go back and listen to the episode
Speaker 3: of Mark Trexler to understand why carbon credits don't work.
Speaker 1: But yes, cool, So this time the prize is much
Speaker 1: more special, much more real in many ways, and the
Speaker 1: prize you'll be delighted to know, actually is a copy
Speaker 1: of a new book being published on October the twelfth,
Speaker 1: called Climate Capitalism. Actually, would you like to explain the
Speaker 1: price of it?
Speaker 3: Well, I would like to lose it, so one if
Speaker 3: you get who wins it, then the pressure's on.
Speaker 1: So I mean i'll give a brief into but actually
Speaker 1: you should use this opportunity to promote your new book
Speaker 1: as well. It's called Climate Capitalism. It's out October twelve.
Speaker 1: I've read most of the first few chapters. I haven't
Speaker 1: finished it yet, but it's great. It's brilliant. It's a
Speaker 1: really really fun read, and I would recommend anyone who
Speaker 1: is listening to go out and pre order the book. Actually,
Speaker 1: do you want to give it a brief plug as well?
Speaker 3: Yes, it's a book about climate solutions, So anybody listening
Speaker 3: to Zero the podcast about climate solutions will not be
Speaker 3: surprised by it, but I would hope the surprising stories
Speaker 3: in it will interest you. Some of them, or at
Speaker 3: least some of the people behind those stories have featured
Speaker 3: on this podcast, But there is a lot more in there.
Speaker 3: Writing a book is very different from any other kind
Speaker 3: of journalism I've done so far, and it also gave
Speaker 3: me an opportunity to sort of lay out a case
Speaker 3: for where we are and correct some of the misperceptions
Speaker 3: around whether we are doing enough on reducing emissions. So
Speaker 3: I'm really excited for what people think about it. Really
Speaker 3: nice reviews are coming through, so I feel less nervous
Speaker 3: now because some people have read it and they've said,
Speaker 3: it's all.
Speaker 2: Right, great review for our prize.
Speaker 1: It's all right, it's all right.
Speaker 2: Okay. So to sum that up, akshot, you are ready
Speaker 2: to compete for your own book?
Speaker 1: Correct? Shall we play? Whose number is it? Anyway? Christine?
Speaker 1: Would you like to go first this time?
Speaker 2: Yes, I am ready. My number is fifty fifty.
Speaker 3: That's a small number.
Speaker 2: Is it a small number?
Speaker 3: Well again, if you're doing it like last time, if
Speaker 3: it's going to be a percentage, I guess we need
Speaker 3: the unit.
Speaker 2: You have a really good memory. It is a percentage,
Speaker 2: and I'll throw it in a little extra hint. It's
Speaker 2: a percentage reduction.
Speaker 3: So it cannot be the twenty thirty target, because that
Speaker 3: twenty thirty target is forty three percent reduction over twenty
Speaker 3: nineteen levels.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's not it. Now, I haven't said what we're reducing,
Speaker 2: but you are on the correct path.
Speaker 1: Can I try and define the geographic area little bit?
Speaker 1: Is it a reduction that's happened in the USA?
Speaker 2: Yes, it is.
Speaker 1: Does it have anything to do with electricity generation? No?
Speaker 2: Not directly.
Speaker 1: Actually, you look like you're bubbling with questions slash deep
Speaker 1: in thought.
Speaker 3: I'm actually confused because I don't know what it is.
Speaker 3: If it's not electricity, The closest we come to it
Speaker 3: is the US goal, which Joe Edden said for a
Speaker 3: fifty percent reduction in emissions by.
Speaker 1: I've got an idea. Is it something that is to
Speaker 1: do with land use change? No? Okay, that's my idea.
Speaker 2: Gone, Okay, I have another hint. I want you to
Speaker 2: fill in the blank. If I say Microsoft, what's the
Speaker 2: first word that comes to mind?
Speaker 1: Windows XP dang.
Speaker 2: I was going to say office because it's about working
Speaker 2: in an office and the effect that that has on
Speaker 2: your emissions.
Speaker 1: Oh okay, I think I know roughly what this is.
Speaker 1: It's how much your emissions reduced by or how much
Speaker 1: emissions have been reduced by people working from home.
Speaker 2: Yes, I think I'm going to I want to give
Speaker 2: this point to Oscar.
Speaker 1: I'm one step closer to finishing at chat sport.
Speaker 2: So basically, there's a big headline recently about a study
Speaker 2: of office workers and remote workers, and the ultimate finding
Speaker 2: was if you work from home, the emissions savings could
Speaker 2: be as much as fifty percent. And that's like the
Speaker 2: big headline because everyone's like, who, let's keep working from home.
Speaker 2: I looked at the study. There's a lot of really
Speaker 2: great details in it. I encourage other people to look
Speaker 2: at the study. But there are a lot of neat
Speaker 2: things that are not in the headline, and I want
Speaker 2: to talk about that. So this was a study of
Speaker 2: Microsoft office workers in the US. I could not get
Speaker 2: the researcher to tell me exactly how many people that was,
Speaker 2: but it's at least twenty thousand. So Microsoft has one
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty thousand people working in the US. Anyway,
Speaker 2: This professor of energy systems engineering at Cornell doctor Fon
Speaker 2: Sheiu and other colleagues did the study tracking Microsoft workers
Speaker 2: in the US, and the thing that's not in the
Speaker 2: headline that I think is so interesting is that you
Speaker 2: have to be working from home more than one day
Speaker 2: a week in order to get this benefit. If you
Speaker 2: just work from home one day a week, it doesn't
Speaker 2: really do very much.
Speaker 1: Why is that It has to do with.
Speaker 2: The amount of trips that a person who is working
Speaker 2: from home does on their one day that they're working
Speaker 2: from home, So it's like they're driving more essentially, And
Speaker 2: that goes back to like the source of emissions if
Speaker 2: you're working in the office is commuting and the energy
Speaker 2: use of the building. And I work from home, so
Speaker 2: sometimes I feel guilty about it, like, oh, I'm sitting
Speaker 2: here with the electricity on and like the computer and
Speaker 2: the router, and there's all these empty office buildings that
Speaker 2: are just running really great air conditioning and I'm not there.
Speaker 2: And it turns out that because I'm working from home
Speaker 2: more than one day a week, I actually am kind
Speaker 2: of in the clear. I'm doing something marginally good.
Speaker 1: Do Microsoft employees are the one study? Are they largely
Speaker 1: driving to work? Because I'd be interested know whether it's
Speaker 1: the same effect in say London, where it's very easy
Speaker 1: to cycle or take the bus or take the tube
Speaker 1: or whatever kind of form of public transport you want
Speaker 1: to get to work and you're not driving so much.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a lot of driving. And in the study too,
Speaker 2: they make the point that you could further reduce your
Speaker 2: emissions as a worker if you drive an EV But
Speaker 2: then also only really if you're in the Pacific Northwest,
Speaker 2: where there's a lot more renewable energy. If you're in
Speaker 2: the South or of the mid Atlantic there's so much
Speaker 2: coal generation that it's negligible. There's not a lot of
Speaker 2: great examples of Americans commuting by train or bike, so
Speaker 2: it's really a car centric study.
Speaker 3: So all the carbon intensive countries really should be working
Speaker 3: from home. You know, if you're living in Saudi Arabia, don't.
Speaker 1: Go to Wick.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Basically, yeah, work from home two days a week
Speaker 2: at least. And if you really want your employees to
Speaker 2: come back to the office, make sure that you're building
Speaker 2: is super energy efficient, and then you'll have a really
Speaker 2: strong case that it's better on a lot of levels.
Speaker 2: But everyone who's working from home should not feel guilty
Speaker 2: about it. Great, Akshat, you talked about district cooling. I
Speaker 2: do you want to learn more about that because the
Speaker 2: cooling is such a big part of people's energy use,
Speaker 2: whether you're in the offices or at home. I think
Speaker 2: that you should go next.
Speaker 3: Okay. My number is two hundred and one million.
Speaker 2: Okay, I think this is the number of electric vehicles
Speaker 2: that have been sold in a certain timescale.
Speaker 3: All right, you guys know me it is electric vehicles.
Speaker 3: But well, don Christine, timescale is forever.
Speaker 1: It's time scills forever.
Speaker 3: As in from the beginning of time till now.
Speaker 1: Oh, okay. Is it something to do with the batteries
Speaker 1: inside the electric vehicles?
Speaker 3: I know it is about the vehicles themselves.
Speaker 2: It's not the number of miles that have been traveled.
Speaker 1: No, you've not done something annoying like times dip by
Speaker 1: the number of tires that electric vehicles have.
Speaker 2: No, the vehicles themselves. Two hundred and one million.
Speaker 1: Is it global or is it one specific country? For example, China?
Speaker 1: One country? Is it China? Yes? Good?
Speaker 3: All right, time to guess I.
Speaker 2: Think Oscars pursing his lips with a question.
Speaker 1: Yeah, is it something to do with the number of
Speaker 1: people who have ridden in an electric vehicle in China
Speaker 1: in all time.
Speaker 2: No, Okay, my final guess is I don't think this
Speaker 2: is the right scale for China, but I will guess
Speaker 2: it's the number of electric vehicles sold in China to date.
Speaker 3: You're closed, but still wrong. It is the number of
Speaker 3: two wheeler electric vehicles.
Speaker 1: That I told it was something I'm annoying to do
Speaker 1: with wheels, I said it, No.
Speaker 3: It's not a number of wheels. It's still number of wheels.
Speaker 3: So it's the number of electric two wheelers that are
Speaker 3: in the fleet in China as of twenty to twenty two.
Speaker 2: So it's four hundred and twenty million wheels.
Speaker 1: Four hundred and two million wheels.
Speaker 2: Sorry fortune, two million wheels.
Speaker 1: Yeah, electric two wheelers include bicycles, motorbikes. It's still a
Speaker 1: motorbike if.
Speaker 3: It's I guess it is, yes, And most of it
Speaker 3: is actually more peds rather than electric bikes. And it's
Speaker 3: a number that was just super shocking to me. You know,
Speaker 3: I went to China in twenty seventeen and twenty eighteen,
Speaker 3: and I just saw electric two wheelers everywhere. But you know,
Speaker 3: the scale of China is so huge that even when
Speaker 3: you see them everywhere, You're still not like sure how
Speaker 3: many they might be. And so when I first came
Speaker 3: across the number, I was shocked, and it is shocking,
Speaker 3: especially when you compare it to other countries. So the
Speaker 3: next country in the rank that has electric two wheelers
Speaker 3: is India, no surprises, but another guess how much lower
Speaker 3: is that number? I'm going to say tenth, so twenty million?
Speaker 2: Wait, but I want to know does India manufacture? Yes,
Speaker 2: it does, is electric? Okay, I'm going to stick with
Speaker 2: my theme of today and just do its fifty percent lower.
Speaker 3: The number of electric two wheelers in India were one
Speaker 3: point five million last year in twenty twenty two. The
Speaker 3: entire fleet, it's one one hundred, one one hundred, So
Speaker 3: China is like way ahead on this game.
Speaker 1: Has that actually displaced the need for fossil fuel set?
Speaker 3: So that's the other surprising thing because of the sheer
Speaker 3: number of electric two wheelers. It's electric two wheelers and
Speaker 3: three wheelers combined that displace four times as much oil
Speaker 3: demand as all electric passenger cars sold globally. Wow, so
Speaker 3: your two and three wheeler electric vehicles are displacing about
Speaker 3: a million barrels of oil demand per day, whereas passenger
Speaker 3: cars in total are just placing about quarter of a
Speaker 3: million barrels of oil demand per day, and for contacts,
Speaker 3: we consume about one hundred million barrels of oil every day.
Speaker 1: Wow, So electric two and three wheelers have displaced one
Speaker 1: percent of global oil demand.
Speaker 2: Indeed, that's that's pretty good for two wheels. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Is that just because they're mostly being used in highly dense,
Speaker 1: highly urban settings and getting rid of that last short
Speaker 1: distance travel that people would maybe use cars for.
Speaker 3: Maybe, But it's also that countries like India and China
Speaker 3: and Southeast Asia, two wheelers are the way to get
Speaker 3: around because they're cheaper to buy. They are much more
Speaker 3: efficient than a passenger car because you don't have to
Speaker 3: carry all that weight along just to sit in it,
Speaker 3: and so they make for the mode of transport of
Speaker 3: choice because it's cheap and you can get around it
Speaker 3: and you know, to be fair to India, yes, it's
Speaker 3: one hundred right now, but the rate of growth in
Speaker 3: India that bloomergeni f predicts is massive. So it's one
Speaker 3: point five million last year, it'll be two point five
Speaker 3: million this year, it'll be three point five million next year.
Speaker 3: And that way it just goes up because the economic
Speaker 3: case for electric two wheelers also has set in in India,
Speaker 3: and on my trip this time around, I saw so
Speaker 3: many of them.
Speaker 1: The thing that I think would also be really interesting
Speaker 1: with that is how much it changes air pollution. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you do notice it when you're going around Delhi, the
Speaker 1: fact there are so many polluting vehicles on the streets,
Speaker 1: and if you can change them all for evs, which
Speaker 1: have very little pollution, then that's going to have a
Speaker 1: huge effectually.
Speaker 3: Yeah, totally. It's not uncommon for petrol power two wheelers
Speaker 3: to have this huge amount of smoke coming out. Yes,
Speaker 3: they are more fuel efficient relative to a car, but
Speaker 3: they do produce higher air pollution just because their engines
Speaker 3: are small and they can't put in all the things
Speaker 3: that a car can do to be able to put
Speaker 3: out fewer particulate matter pollution.
Speaker 1: That's another great number. Does anyone win a point? Oh?
Speaker 3: I think Christine gets half a point because she's very
Speaker 3: very good.
Speaker 2: Half a point. I was so close.
Speaker 1: Hey, I got that thing about the wheels though.
Speaker 2: We're going to take a quick break while you ponder
Speaker 2: the existence of two wheeled vehicles. And when we get
Speaker 2: back more numbers. Okay, Oscar, it is your turn to
Speaker 2: share a number.
Speaker 1: My number is two thousand and twenty four.
Speaker 3: Well that sounds like the year. But if it's not
Speaker 3: the year, then I mean it'll be too obvious if it's.
Speaker 2: The year, So just a year that would be so
Speaker 2: I want.
Speaker 1: To say, I think, am I getting number shaded? It's
Speaker 1: very it's this is the thing we do when I share.
Speaker 2: I don't know, choosing a year it feels it's a
Speaker 2: little bit punk. I guess it's a little bit.
Speaker 1: I'll take it. It is a year.
Speaker 3: Well, a lot of things that happened next year. India
Speaker 3: goes to election next year.
Speaker 1: It's not that.
Speaker 2: Is this a year that something is going to be achieved?
Speaker 1: Yes?
Speaker 2: Oh damn, I should ask that differently.
Speaker 1: Oh well, yeah, something I think they will very likely
Speaker 1: be achieved.
Speaker 2: Can I rephrase that? I want to know if something
Speaker 2: is starting to be built in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1: No, nothing is starting to be built.
Speaker 3: Is it to do with protection of a certain thing
Speaker 3: like a forest or an ocean or a you know,
Speaker 3: like a terrestrial thing or animals?
Speaker 1: Or it is not?
Speaker 2: Is it? The bike lanes from your last episode are
Speaker 2: finally being built.
Speaker 1: No, it has nothing to do with bicycles, which is
Speaker 1: one of my big clues.
Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, geographical proximity.
Speaker 1: Give us a hint. It is global. Oh my god, is.
Speaker 3: There a climate gold that may be achieved next year?
Speaker 3: A global one.
Speaker 2: I'm really stumped.
Speaker 1: I'm going to give you another hint that it's to
Speaker 1: do with our favorite energy association.
Speaker 2: IA predict something will happen in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1: Very good. Now what's the thing?
Speaker 2: Oh?
Speaker 3: I got it, but I think I'm wrong, But maybe
Speaker 3: I'm correct, which is all fossil fuel demand, oil gas,
Speaker 3: and coal will peak in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1: You're along the right lines, but think less fossil fuel,
Speaker 1: more renewable final gases.
Speaker 2: Please, yeah, seriously, just bear in.
Speaker 1: Mind, Christine. If you get this, then you get the book.
Speaker 2: I know I'm going to guess that this has something
Speaker 2: to do with the like, let's just say renewables will
Speaker 2: have become present in every country on Earth's electricity generation
Speaker 2: of at least two percent.
Speaker 1: Nice guess, but no, okay, is it a good No
Speaker 1: more hints, no more, henty. It will be a record,
Speaker 1: but it's not being framed in terms of records.
Speaker 3: Okay, I'm going with the wild guest because I don't
Speaker 3: know the answer, which is that renewable electricity, specifically solar,
Speaker 3: will be the cheapest form of electricity everywhere in the world.
Speaker 1: That might also be true. I'm not going to deny it,
Speaker 1: but it's not the figure I'm talking about. So twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four is the year that the International Energy Agency
Speaker 1: predicts that renewables could overtake coal as the world's largest
Speaker 1: source of electricity.
Speaker 2: Whoa is shaking his fist.
Speaker 3: I think I knew that, it just didn't hit me.
Speaker 2: Hey that's cool.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's cool. And as a follow up from that,
Speaker 1: so the figure I just gave is for all renewables,
Speaker 1: which includes hydro which is the currently the largest solar
Speaker 1: wind both on you or not sure, but by twenty
Speaker 1: twenty seven, they think solar alone will be bigger than coal.
Speaker 2: Wow.
Speaker 1: And why I really liked this figure is that it
Speaker 1: builds upon their own predictions and so all the way
Speaker 1: back in December of twenty twenty two, about nine ten
Speaker 1: months ago, the IA released its Renewabals twenty twenty two report,
Speaker 1: which estimated that globally, renewables might overtake coal maybe in
Speaker 1: early twenty twenty five, but the latest report, which came
Speaker 1: out in July, says that it could be as early
Speaker 1: as twenty twenty four. It's caveatd with as long as
Speaker 1: weather conditions are favorable, that renewables as a whole should
Speaker 1: overtake coal.
Speaker 3: And that answers one question, which is this is about
Speaker 3: generation of renewable electricity and not just the capacity. I
Speaker 3: should also correct myself, which is yes, the IEA did
Speaker 3: say something about peaking of oil, coal and gas demand,
Speaker 3: but it said all of those will peak before twenty thirty.
Speaker 1: I mean that's also huge. What's crazy is when you
Speaker 1: look at these figures. So in twenty fourteen, all renewable
Speaker 1: energy put together made about five thousand terrible hours in
Speaker 1: a year, and at that point so twenty fourteen, coal
Speaker 1: was about ten thousand terrible hours globally, and coal has
Speaker 1: remained relatively insistent. It's kind of fluctuated a little bit,
Speaker 1: but renewables in that ten yure period have doubled from
Speaker 1: five thousand terrible hours to almost ten thousand terrible hours.
Speaker 1: And yeah, I mean it's exciting because, as I said,
Speaker 1: it builds upon the IA. It's own forecasts, and basically
Speaker 1: they've just taken in all the new data from governments
Speaker 1: like China, the EU, the US, India who are just
Speaker 1: pumping more and more money and changing their policies to
Speaker 1: basically make it easier to introduce renewables and make it
Speaker 1: less favorable for new fossil fuels to come into place.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it does feel surprising, even though we just
Speaker 3: had Jenny Chase explained to us the solar revolution that
Speaker 3: is just mind boggling. But it's it is that mind
Speaker 3: boggling that even after you slice andize these numbers different
Speaker 3: radio like Wow.
Speaker 1: The other last thing I'd like to mention by the
Speaker 1: IA report is that they've now made this claim that
Speaker 1: fossil fuels are seeing structural decline. Normally, in the past
Speaker 1: when fossil fuels have declined, it's been in the wake
Speaker 1: of big recessions, financial crashes, the OPEC oil crisis in
Speaker 1: the nineteen seventies. They're saying now because of how quickly
Speaker 1: renewables are rising, in particular Solo, that fossil fuels are
Speaker 1: starting to go into a terminal structural decline. That even
Speaker 1: though electricity demand is still growing, all that new capacity
Speaker 1: that's needed is being taken up by renewables, and renewables
Speaker 1: are now making a real dent into fossil fuel infrastructure
Speaker 1: as well. I don't know who got that, did either
Speaker 1: of you get that? I'm going to give it to
Speaker 1: Christine so she gets the copy of Actual's.
Speaker 2: Book sign version in the mail.
Speaker 3: There will be one.
Speaker 1: I think that wraps up our time. Thank you guys
Speaker 1: for playing Whose number is it? Anyway? This was fun.
Speaker 2: Great, Thanks so much for listening to Zero. Let us
Speaker 2: know what you thought of this format at zero pod
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot net.
Speaker 1: If you enjoyed it, please give us a rating or
Speaker 1: review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Please do say nice
Speaker 1: things only.
Speaker 2: Zero's producer is Oscar Boyd and senior producer is me
Speaker 2: Christine driscoll.
Speaker 1: Our theme music is by Wonderly Special thanks as always
Speaker 1: to Kira Bndrum and we'll be back later this week