WEBVTT - Dan Nathan & Stephen Vladeck 0:00:00.680 --> 0:00:04.160 Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics, 0:00:04.400 --> 0:00:07.160 where we discussed the top political headlines with some of 0:00:07.200 --> 0:00:08.559 today's best minds. 0:00:08.800 --> 0:00:10.160 And Donald Trump said. 0:00:10.000 --> 0:00:13.680 Today, I suspect I won't be running again unless you 0:00:13.800 --> 0:00:17.520 say he's so good, we have to figure something else out. 0:00:17.880 --> 0:00:19.360 I don't know. I'm with that words. 0:00:19.440 --> 0:00:21.400 We have such a great show for you today on 0:00:21.560 --> 0:00:26.880 the tapes Dan Nathan who talked about inflation, the economy 0:00:26.960 --> 0:00:29.880 that Trump is about to inherit, and all that other 0:00:29.920 --> 0:00:34.800 good stuff. Then we'll talk to Georgetown Law Schools Stephen 0:00:34.880 --> 0:00:39.639 Vladik about how the courts can protect Americans if we 0:00:39.760 --> 0:00:40.840 use them that way. 0:00:41.000 --> 0:00:42.280 But first the news. 0:00:42.840 --> 0:00:48.400 So, Molly, we got a barrage, a veritable cornucopia of 0:00:48.479 --> 0:00:51.680 the weirdest political appointments in presidential history. What do you 0:00:51.720 --> 0:00:52.120 see here? 0:00:52.440 --> 0:00:54.080 Speak for yourself, man. 0:00:55.280 --> 0:00:57.200 What have you seen to the Nine blood Sjungger the 0:00:57.240 --> 0:00:58.480 b are Yes? 0:00:58.520 --> 0:00:59.000 That's right. 0:00:59.360 --> 0:01:03.040 Center for Publicans just found out that Donald Trump is 0:01:03.080 --> 0:01:07.520 planning to nominate Representative Matt Gates of Florida for Attorney general. 0:01:07.680 --> 0:01:10.040 I just want to say one thing here. I don't know. 0:01:10.680 --> 0:01:16.520 Perhaps Republicans will grow a spine and do real confirmation hearings, 0:01:16.640 --> 0:01:18.840 and then we'll see if he can make it to 0:01:18.880 --> 0:01:23.000 ag I'll just tell you, Senator Jony Ernst told The 0:01:23.000 --> 0:01:25.800 New York Times He's really got his work cut out 0:01:25.880 --> 0:01:31.319 for him, chuckling as she spoke. Senator John Cornyn from 0:01:31.360 --> 0:01:35.320 the Great State of Texas raised his eyebrows when reporters 0:01:35.360 --> 0:01:39.320 informed him of mister Trump's choice, and then said, I'm 0:01:39.319 --> 0:01:43.560 still trying to absorb all this, adding I really don't 0:01:43.640 --> 0:01:46.200 know him other than his public persona. 0:01:46.480 --> 0:01:47.840 Now you'll remember Matt. 0:01:47.720 --> 0:01:50.200 Gates, who's just been re elected to his fifth term, 0:01:50.480 --> 0:01:55.040 remains under an ethics investigation. You'll remember that he went 0:01:55.080 --> 0:01:59.160 to war with Kevin McCarthy because he blamed Kevin McCarthy 0:01:59.440 --> 0:02:03.640 for that ethics investigation. Then he did a motion to vacate, 0:02:03.960 --> 0:02:08.120 and Kevin McCarthy lost the speakership this conduct. This ethics 0:02:08.200 --> 0:02:13.760 investigation included allegations of sexual misconduct, illicit drug use as 0:02:13.800 --> 0:02:18.280 opposed to non illistit drug use, sharing inappropriate images or 0:02:18.360 --> 0:02:19.800 videos on the House floor. 0:02:20.080 --> 0:02:21.639 Imagine how bad they have to be. 0:02:21.680 --> 0:02:25.120 To be deemed inappropriate on the House floor, mis Using 0:02:25.240 --> 0:02:31.800 state identification records okay, converting campaign funds to personal use, 0:02:32.360 --> 0:02:39.120 and accepting impermissible gifts under house rules. Mister Gates has 0:02:39.360 --> 0:02:43.200 denied the allegations as political payback and says they are 0:02:43.240 --> 0:02:46.359 built on lies. That is the person that Donald Trump 0:02:46.440 --> 0:02:49.680 wants to be the Attorney general. 0:02:50.000 --> 0:02:52.639 Fun stuff, and then what's great is it gets worse 0:02:52.760 --> 0:02:55.760 with Fox News host Pete Hegsith, who's going to be 0:02:55.800 --> 0:02:58.840 the Defense Secretary, which I know some people thought it 0:02:58.880 --> 0:03:01.560 was going to be Mike Roda, who Matt Gates almost 0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:03.760 had a fistfight with on the congressional flour So I'm 0:03:03.760 --> 0:03:06.040 glad to see maybe their fistfight won't spill it into 0:03:06.080 --> 0:03:06.880 the White House. 0:03:07.080 --> 0:03:10.919 Pete heg Sith hosts the weekend show on Fox Fronts Okay, 0:03:11.000 --> 0:03:15.040 Fox and Friends Weekend, not the first tier Fox and Friends, 0:03:15.080 --> 0:03:17.920 but the weekend show. It's a good friend of Donald Trump's, 0:03:17.919 --> 0:03:21.640 which is basically the main quality that's looked for in 0:03:21.720 --> 0:03:26.000 these government jobs. He is basically most famous for having 0:03:26.160 --> 0:03:31.679 been in the military. And also, and this is where 0:03:31.720 --> 0:03:34.840 it gets really interesting, he said that he has not 0:03:35.040 --> 0:03:39.400 washed his hands for ten years because quote, germs are 0:03:39.440 --> 0:03:42.160 not a real thing. Speaking of Fox and Friends, heg 0:03:42.200 --> 0:03:47.360 Sith said the infectious micro organisms do not exist because 0:03:47.400 --> 0:03:49.440 they could not be seen with the naked eye. 0:03:49.480 --> 0:03:51.360 I inoculate myself. 0:03:51.720 --> 0:03:55.120 This is a person who went to both Harvard and 0:03:55.160 --> 0:04:01.000 Princeton and ladies and gentlemen. He is now going theoretically 0:04:01.320 --> 0:04:03.320 to lead the Department of Defense. 0:04:03.600 --> 0:04:06.240 There's a lot of interesting reactions to this. I might 0:04:06.280 --> 0:04:07.120 add inside the. 0:04:07.280 --> 0:04:11.760 Pentagon, there is no serious experience in the business of 0:04:11.840 --> 0:04:16.400 running the Pentagon or the National Security staff process. But 0:04:17.000 --> 0:04:19.840 I'm trying to retain an open mind and hope that 0:04:20.000 --> 0:04:23.560 fresh ideas. There is no serious experience there's I think 0:04:23.640 --> 0:04:26.440 he means he has no serious experience in the business 0:04:26.480 --> 0:04:29.240 of running the Pentagon or the national security process. But 0:04:29.279 --> 0:04:32.080 I'm trying to retain an open mind and hope that 0:04:32.279 --> 0:04:36.440 fresh ideas could improve things that get pretty stale or retired. 0:04:36.480 --> 0:04:39.800 For star General told CNN that said the common denominator 0:04:39.880 --> 0:04:45.000 is clearly loyalty, and while some loyalty is essential, slavish 0:04:45.040 --> 0:04:46.520 fealty is dangerous. 0:04:46.839 --> 0:04:47.320 I don't know. 0:04:47.560 --> 0:04:50.679 We should just be happy that Judge Piro is not 0:04:50.839 --> 0:04:51.840 the Attorney General. 0:04:52.760 --> 0:04:56.520 The thing we talked about last episode that's so baffling 0:04:56.520 --> 0:04:58.159 to me is they're going to have such a small 0:04:58.360 --> 0:05:02.080 congressional majority and yet Gates is another one that they're 0:05:02.080 --> 0:05:04.520 throwing away the numbers on and at least for a 0:05:04.520 --> 0:05:05.120 few months. 0:05:05.360 --> 0:05:07.800 Speak for yourself, man, I think they're going to have 0:05:07.880 --> 0:05:10.680 I think it'll be six members of Congress that they 0:05:10.720 --> 0:05:13.920 will put in the Trump admin. So either somebody can't 0:05:13.960 --> 0:05:16.480 do math, or they have some plan to fill those 0:05:16.480 --> 0:05:18.320 appointments very very quickly. 0:05:18.760 --> 0:05:22.600 I mean not happening with the least the Phonic seat. 0:05:22.680 --> 0:05:26.680 Lee Zelden is not in Congress anymore, but Stephonic. 0:05:27.040 --> 0:05:29.400 There are a bunch of backbenchers and then. 0:05:29.320 --> 0:05:33.040 Macate molly so also he has appointed Tulci Gabbert as 0:05:33.160 --> 0:05:34.000 head of D and I. 0:05:34.240 --> 0:05:35.520 Yeah, Tulsi Gabert. 0:05:35.600 --> 0:05:39.200 Tolsi Gabert is most famous for I don't know, it's 0:05:39.240 --> 0:05:42.760 hard to talk about this because it's so insane. And again, 0:05:43.440 --> 0:05:46.159 like I know, I've said this before, but this is 0:05:46.279 --> 0:05:49.159 none of this is normal, right, None of this is normal. 0:05:49.200 --> 0:05:52.320 Tulci Gabert, she was a member of Congress. She's basically 0:05:52.400 --> 0:05:54.560 most famous for supporting Trump. 0:05:54.720 --> 0:05:57.120 What are you talking about? She was Tucker Carlson's fill 0:05:57.200 --> 0:05:59.200 in for years, right. 0:05:58.920 --> 0:06:01.279 And I just want to to you a little bit 0:06:01.320 --> 0:06:04.160 from the New York Times The news of missus Gabbard's 0:06:04.200 --> 0:06:08.520 appointment was first revealed by Roger Stone on his ex account. 0:06:08.800 --> 0:06:12.160 Mister Stone, a longtime friend advisor to mister Trump who 0:06:12.320 --> 0:06:15.680 was pardoned by the president in toy twenty posted this 0:06:15.760 --> 0:06:19.159 statement about miss Gabbard and said mister Trump had just 0:06:19.240 --> 0:06:22.360 sent it to him. None of this is normal. This 0:06:22.560 --> 0:06:25.080 is not how any of this is supposed to go. 0:06:25.560 --> 0:06:28.960 This is not how supposed to pick the Department of 0:06:29.160 --> 0:06:33.000 National Intelligence the head of that. There are many, many, 0:06:33.080 --> 0:06:39.880 many government agencies, hardworking, nonpartisan actors who are going to 0:06:40.080 --> 0:06:43.919 serve at the pleasure of missus Gabbard. She would oversee 0:06:43.960 --> 0:06:47.320 eighteen spy agencies and would be responsible for preparing the 0:06:47.360 --> 0:06:51.160 president's daily beef. The one good part about this is 0:06:51.200 --> 0:06:52.599 that there's no way. 0:06:52.440 --> 0:06:55.680 That Donald Trump drops the PDB, so you can put 0:06:55.720 --> 0:06:57.560 whatever you want in there and no one would care. 0:07:02.240 --> 0:07:05.080 Dan Nathan is the host of the On the Tape 0:07:05.200 --> 0:07:10.160 podcast and a c NBC Fast Money contributor. Welcome Back, 0:07:10.280 --> 0:07:12.880 Too Fast Politics, Dan Nathan. 0:07:13.000 --> 0:07:15.160 Molly John Fast. Great to be back with you. 0:07:15.160 --> 0:07:16.600 You know who's wrong about the election? 0:07:17.120 --> 0:07:17.560 Everyone? 0:07:17.720 --> 0:07:17.760 Me? 0:07:18.240 --> 0:07:18.680 Now me. 0:07:19.200 --> 0:07:21.920 I can't speak for everyone. I can only speak for me. 0:07:22.120 --> 0:07:22.880 And I was wrong. 0:07:23.000 --> 0:07:26.160 Listen, everyone was wrong about everything. And you know who 0:07:26.240 --> 0:07:29.040 else was I think wrong again? I think the Trump administrator, 0:07:29.160 --> 0:07:32.000 the Trump campaign was very surprised that they won again. 0:07:32.040 --> 0:07:34.080 And so if you think about your life over the 0:07:34.120 --> 0:07:36.800 last eight years or so, the one thing that you're 0:07:36.880 --> 0:07:40.200 routinely wrong about is Donald J. Trump. Let's just be 0:07:40.360 --> 0:07:41.160 very clear about that. 0:07:41.440 --> 0:07:41.920 Yeah. 0:07:41.960 --> 0:07:44.560 And actually I wrote this piece about everything I got 0:07:44.600 --> 0:07:46.960 wrong and the thing that I was struck because the 0:07:47.000 --> 0:07:50.320 polls were much closer than we thought. But what's interesting 0:07:50.400 --> 0:07:54.880 to me was that the polls were unable yet again, 0:07:55.400 --> 0:07:58.760 Donald Trump was underestimated by the polls. 0:07:59.080 --> 0:08:01.119 Yeah, but for one reason, And I know that's probably 0:08:01.120 --> 0:08:03.160 why you had me on to talk a little bit about, 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:06.880 you know, the economy and the like. Here, I mean inflation, inflation, inflation, 0:08:07.040 --> 0:08:09.480 And I think you know, I said this on Stephanie 0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:11.520 Ruhl's show the other night. I mean, and I've been 0:08:11.560 --> 0:08:13.440 saying this for a year. I've said it on your show. 0:08:13.720 --> 0:08:17.280 The sarrogates that the Biden administration had about the economy 0:08:17.360 --> 0:08:20.040 were so bad. If you just think about the progress 0:08:20.040 --> 0:08:22.080 that has been made over the last couple of years 0:08:22.080 --> 0:08:24.920 as it relates to inflation. The CPI was above nine 0:08:25.000 --> 0:08:27.640 percent in the summer of twenty twenty two. It's now 0:08:27.720 --> 0:08:32.440 below three percent. Economic growth GDP is up near three percent. 0:08:32.520 --> 0:08:35.920 That's way above the pre pandemic highs. You know, unemployment 0:08:36.080 --> 0:08:38.960 is down near fifty year lows. You think about that 0:08:39.160 --> 0:08:42.199 combination here. They had a lot of really good things 0:08:42.200 --> 0:08:44.920 to talk about. They just could not break through. They 0:08:44.920 --> 0:08:47.280 did not have the right people discussing. And I'll just 0:08:47.320 --> 0:08:49.319 say one last thing, you know, I heard two weeks 0:08:49.320 --> 0:08:52.840 before the election, Mark Cuban was on a very widely 0:08:52.880 --> 0:08:55.040 listened to podcast, Sam Harris. I don't know if you 0:08:55.080 --> 0:08:57.520 listen to Making Sense, okay, And no one's brought up 0:08:57.559 --> 0:08:59.480 Sam Harris, as they've been spending a lot of time 0:08:59.520 --> 0:09:02.120 talking about out you know, Joe Rogan and what Trump 0:09:02.200 --> 0:09:05.880 did there. He gave a master class on the economy. 0:09:05.920 --> 0:09:09.840 He gave a master class on why inflation was, you know, 0:09:09.960 --> 0:09:12.839 elevated the way it was post one hundred year storm, 0:09:12.840 --> 0:09:16.240 which was the pandemic. You know, broken supply chains, you know, 0:09:16.360 --> 0:09:19.360 super like crazy demand for certain things. And it really 0:09:19.440 --> 0:09:23.240 wasn't in the administration's fault. It's happened globally, and so 0:09:23.480 --> 0:09:26.480 just their inability to articulate that. Why has Mark Cuban 0:09:26.520 --> 0:09:28.079 able to do it in forty five minutes on a 0:09:28.120 --> 0:09:31.280 podcast in a way that nobody in the administration or 0:09:31.320 --> 0:09:32.560 in the Harris campaign could do. 0:09:33.480 --> 0:09:37.120 No, I know, And they didn't even contact him until 0:09:37.200 --> 0:09:39.880 someone put them together with him, but I don't know who. 0:09:40.160 --> 0:09:43.199 And you know, before that, no one had even reached 0:09:43.200 --> 0:09:43.640 out to him. 0:09:43.760 --> 0:09:46.120 I mean, I don't want to Monday Morning quarterback here, 0:09:46.480 --> 0:09:48.440 but I do think if Democrats are going to ever 0:09:48.480 --> 0:09:51.920 win another election, they have to go on everything all 0:09:52.000 --> 0:09:52.480 the time. 0:09:52.760 --> 0:09:54.000 I mean, that's what Trump did. 0:09:54.240 --> 0:09:56.480 This is a good example, though, Molly, and again, you know, 0:09:56.520 --> 0:09:58.280 going back and trying to figure it all out doesn't 0:09:58.280 --> 0:10:00.200 make a lot of sense because folks like you and me, 0:10:00.280 --> 0:10:04.400 we're super confident about what the likely outcome of this was, 0:10:04.480 --> 0:10:06.400 because if you just looked at all the momentum, if 0:10:06.400 --> 0:10:08.480 you looked at just the vibes, and again, I think 0:10:08.520 --> 0:10:11.080 the vibes are really hurting us, you know, in many 0:10:11.160 --> 0:10:13.880 many different ways here and the folks, you know, we're 0:10:14.160 --> 0:10:16.640 so focused on things that had nothing to do with 0:10:16.679 --> 0:10:19.240 the pocketbook of most Americans, and that's the problem. And 0:10:19.280 --> 0:10:21.520 so when I go back and I look at this, 0:10:21.679 --> 0:10:23.840 and you know, from an economic standpoint, I think about 0:10:24.000 --> 0:10:26.880 inflationary pressures and make no mistake about it. You know, 0:10:26.920 --> 0:10:31.199 the cumulative effects of inflation are really hard on working 0:10:31.240 --> 0:10:34.280 class people. I get that. But they never articulated away 0:10:34.559 --> 0:10:36.120 how they were going to prove that. And here's a 0:10:36.120 --> 0:10:40.680 great example. This was policy over politics. Okay, the politics 0:10:40.679 --> 0:10:43.640 of the Harris campaign just didn't get the message across. 0:10:43.840 --> 0:10:48.160 And the policy articulated by the Trump campaign was speaking 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:50.320 to these people whether they're going to follow through on 0:10:50.480 --> 0:10:53.000 any of it or not. And there's a really great 0:10:53.120 --> 0:10:55.160 argument to be made that if they do follow us 0:10:55.160 --> 0:10:58.400 through on the policy, then it's just going to reignite inflation, 0:10:58.720 --> 0:11:01.160 and it's going to hurt the very people that migrated 0:11:01.240 --> 0:11:03.599 over towards voting for Trump because they wanted help on 0:11:03.640 --> 0:11:04.240 the economy. 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:08.000 That's right. We don't know how long that'll take, right Well, I. 0:11:07.960 --> 0:11:10.040 Mean, listen, here's one thing that we do know. Like 0:11:10.240 --> 0:11:12.760 promises made, promises kept. That's what they kept on saying. 0:11:12.760 --> 0:11:14.680 All right, Well, they said they're going to hit China 0:11:14.720 --> 0:11:17.520 with some very very stiff tariffs. We already have some 0:11:17.559 --> 0:11:20.280 big tariffs on China right there. You put that on 0:11:20.520 --> 0:11:24.080 exports from China, that just makes it for consumers, for 0:11:24.200 --> 0:11:27.000 manufacturers here, it makes the cost of those goods go 0:11:27.160 --> 0:11:30.040 higher for us, and therefore it's money taken out of 0:11:30.080 --> 0:11:32.840 our pockets. It's not coming out of China and going 0:11:32.920 --> 0:11:36.000 right into our treasury. Right. They've also talked about extending 0:11:36.040 --> 0:11:39.120 the tax cuts you know, from twenty seventeen, that will 0:11:39.160 --> 0:11:42.000 basically go into the rest of this four year period, 0:11:42.320 --> 0:11:45.080 and that is also going to be inflationary, right. And 0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:47.920 then you think about the other thing about mass deportation. 0:11:48.320 --> 0:11:50.600 You take a lot of those workers right out of 0:11:50.600 --> 0:11:53.560 our economy, then you're going to see wages go higher. 0:11:53.600 --> 0:11:56.320 That's going to get embedded in the cost of things, 0:11:56.360 --> 0:11:58.880 the cost of doing business here if you're a manufacturer 0:11:58.960 --> 0:12:01.320 or anything like that, and therefore you're going to have 0:12:01.440 --> 0:12:03.720 major inflationary pressures from those three things. 0:12:03.800 --> 0:12:05.040 Yes, that's right. 0:12:05.160 --> 0:12:07.200 Yeah, And so the knock on effect is also that 0:12:07.320 --> 0:12:10.040 interest rates that started to go down because the economy 0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:11.760 was doing better and the Fed was going to be 0:12:11.760 --> 0:12:14.240 able to normalize interest rates, they're going to go back up. 0:12:14.280 --> 0:12:17.400 The US dollar is at fifty two week highs right now, 0:12:17.440 --> 0:12:20.520 so it's basically going higher because of the threat of 0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:23.800 future inflation. So all the sorts of things that you know, 0:12:23.840 --> 0:12:25.920 Trump ran on about how he was going to fix 0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:28.600 the economy. The economy was just fine. So what's going 0:12:28.640 --> 0:12:31.040 to happen is if he follows through on these policies, 0:12:31.280 --> 0:12:33.880 it's basically going to reignite inflation. It's going to be 0:12:33.880 --> 0:12:35.320 really hard on the working class people. 0:12:35.440 --> 0:12:38.120 Right, But I was told you would fix inflation. 0:12:38.559 --> 0:12:40.360 Well he told you that, right, and so he made 0:12:40.360 --> 0:12:43.079 a lot of promises over the course of his campaign. 0:12:43.280 --> 0:12:46.760 What really frustrates me, Molly, is that Republicans over the 0:12:46.840 --> 0:12:50.240 last twenty years have convinced working class people to routinely 0:12:50.320 --> 0:12:54.160 vote against their best interests. And it's not just economic, right. So, yeah, 0:12:54.240 --> 0:12:57.439 you could say that those those tax custs of twenty seventeen, 0:12:57.720 --> 0:12:59.959 you know, they basically borrowed a trillion a half dollars 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:03.080 from the future. They gave it to corporations, they gave 0:13:03.080 --> 0:13:05.240 it to very wealthy people. And you know what happened 0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:08.280 with that, corporations bought back their own stock to the 0:13:08.360 --> 0:13:10.760 tune of one and a half trillion dollars over a 0:13:10.800 --> 0:13:13.440 couple of years after those tax cuts went in effect, 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:15.920 and it's not just you know, economic stuff. I mean, 0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:17.800 just think of the fact that one of the first 0:13:17.800 --> 0:13:19.400 things that Trump wanted to do when he got an 0:13:19.440 --> 0:13:23.040 office in twenty seventeen, he wanted to repeal Obamacare. It 0:13:23.120 --> 0:13:26.280 was one of the most important legislations of the last 0:13:26.360 --> 0:13:28.719 fifty years as it relates to working class people and 0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:31.160 their access to healthcare. They wanted to kill that. Now 0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:33.760 they want to kill student debt relief. Right. They want 0:13:33.760 --> 0:13:36.079 to kill the Department of Education. How do you get 0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:38.640 ahead in the economy if you don't have a proper 0:13:39.000 --> 0:13:42.319 educational sort of structure, right, They want to cut Social Security. 0:13:42.480 --> 0:13:44.160 I mean, the list goes on and on here, and 0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:46.280 I just I don't see how if they follow through 0:13:46.280 --> 0:13:48.200 on any of those promises, how it's going to be 0:13:48.200 --> 0:13:49.720 better for working class people. 0:13:50.080 --> 0:13:52.679 Now, there's no world in which it's better for working 0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:54.400 class people at all. 0:13:54.520 --> 0:13:56.320 Right, And so you know what's going to be a 0:13:56.400 --> 0:13:58.920 voting machine on this is going to be the midterms. Right, 0:13:59.000 --> 0:14:02.120 So if inflation's d high, if middle class or working 0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:04.200 class people don't see the sort of benefits from some 0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:05.880 of the policies that he said he was going to do, 0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:08.200 they're going to have a tough time, especially with that 0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:12.400 narrow lead in the House. Obviously the Senate is increasingly difficult, 0:14:12.520 --> 0:14:15.040 you know, to take back. But again, I just think that, 0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:18.040 you know, the headline today is that the Republicans voted 0:14:18.080 --> 0:14:21.160 for fun to be the majority leader and against the 0:14:21.200 --> 0:14:23.640 will I guess of the Trump folks. And so maybe 0:14:23.680 --> 0:14:26.080 there is this kind of building sort of I don't 0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:27.600 know if you want to call it a firewall. We 0:14:27.720 --> 0:14:30.080 heard all about that in sixteen and seventeen, that there 0:14:30.160 --> 0:14:32.720 was going to be this firewall between you know, Trump 0:14:32.800 --> 0:14:35.200 and basically the means of you know, governing and the 0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:37.320 like here. So maybe that's a good sign. But then 0:14:37.480 --> 0:14:39.160 if you think about all these other people that are 0:14:39.160 --> 0:14:41.960 going to be nominated for these really important cabinet positions, 0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:44.440 it seems like these are a bunch of amateurs. 0:14:44.120 --> 0:14:46.360 Really a bunch of amateurs. 0:14:46.800 --> 0:14:48.960 Well let's call them hacks, right like, when you think 0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:51.200 about it that way, I mean, they're just kind of dangerous. 0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:52.880 When you look at some of the people that are 0:14:52.880 --> 0:14:57.640 being suggested for Secretary of Defense, Secretary of State, Homeland Security, 0:14:57.680 --> 0:15:00.480 I mean, these people they just appear that they want 0:15:00.520 --> 0:15:04.360 to basically rule with grievance the way that he ran 0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:06.680 for office, and you think about, you know, just the 0:15:06.760 --> 0:15:08.480 level of cruelty that they want to kind of put 0:15:08.520 --> 0:15:11.080 in place when you think about mass deportations, you think 0:15:11.080 --> 0:15:14.040 about LGBT rights. I mean, the list goes on and on, 0:15:14.120 --> 0:15:16.240 and you know what, there's not a better example of 0:15:16.280 --> 0:15:18.560 this is like the hundreds of millions of dollars that 0:15:18.600 --> 0:15:21.760 the campaigns spent on this anti trans ad right. 0:15:21.920 --> 0:15:23.560 It worked well, it did work. 0:15:23.600 --> 0:15:25.800 But my point is like that's how I think they're 0:15:25.840 --> 0:15:28.280 going to rule. They're going to continue to kind of 0:15:28.400 --> 0:15:30.640 use these wedge sort of issues and they're going to 0:15:30.720 --> 0:15:34.160 keep dividing the voting blocks here, you know, the people 0:15:34.200 --> 0:15:36.800 in this country. And I just kind of really frustrating me. 0:15:36.840 --> 0:15:38.280 You can see I'm kind of fired up here. I 0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:40.760 haven't had the opportunity to do this on my podcast 0:15:40.760 --> 0:15:42.280 because our people don't want to hear it. They want 0:15:42.320 --> 0:15:44.040 to hear about the economy. They want to hear about markets, 0:15:44.080 --> 0:15:46.040 they want to hear about stocks and the like here. 0:15:46.120 --> 0:15:47.960 But this is something that you know, to me, I 0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:49.880 just think it's an accident waiting to happen again. 0:15:50.040 --> 0:15:51.160 Yeah, oh, no question. 0:15:51.600 --> 0:15:56.160 My biggest anxiety is that the FED will not stay independent. 0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:57.440 Here's a scenario. 0:15:57.840 --> 0:16:01.520 Trump puts in tariffs, Trump ends his tax Scott, it 0:16:01.640 --> 0:16:05.200 is wildly inflationary, Inflation goes up, the FED says We're 0:16:05.200 --> 0:16:05.560 not going to. 0:16:05.680 --> 0:16:09.520 Cut any more rates, and Trump's like, okay, you're fired. 0:16:09.840 --> 0:16:12.240 Yeah. Well, I think it's a very difficult thing for 0:16:12.440 --> 0:16:14.160 him to do that, by the way. I mean, he 0:16:14.200 --> 0:16:16.800 can fire a FED governor, a FED official for cause. 0:16:16.920 --> 0:16:18.960 You know, if you think about the way that Jerome Powell, 0:16:19.040 --> 0:16:22.520 who basically was also nominated by President Trump back in 0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:25.760 twenty and seventeen, he was his pick. Now, obviously he 0:16:25.800 --> 0:16:28.080 gave him a whole heck of a lot of pressure 0:16:28.560 --> 0:16:31.320 when he started normalizing interest rates by raising them in 0:16:31.320 --> 0:16:34.920 twenty and eighteen. But you just made the most important point, 0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:37.640 right when you think about what is likely to happen 0:16:37.760 --> 0:16:40.520 with tariffs and tax cuts and you know, mass deportation. 0:16:40.920 --> 0:16:45.040 If Trump fires Powell and they start pressuring whoever comes in. 0:16:45.000 --> 0:16:46.440 Place, I mean, can he do that? 0:16:46.760 --> 0:16:49.280 Well he probably could. I mean, like, let's think about it, right, 0:16:49.360 --> 0:16:51.240 Like the gloves are off here, I mean, the norms 0:16:51.240 --> 0:16:53.080 are out the window. I mean he's showed us that 0:16:53.160 --> 0:16:56.000 again and again and again, So he could certainly try 0:16:56.000 --> 0:16:58.160 to do it. And then it's up to the Federal 0:16:58.160 --> 0:17:01.080 Reserve or FED Chair Powell himself to kind of bring 0:17:01.160 --> 0:17:03.520 a suit and think about this. You bring any suits 0:17:03.600 --> 0:17:05.920 you want, the higher and higher they go, you get 0:17:05.920 --> 0:17:08.520 to the Supreme Court, which is loaded by Trump anyway. 0:17:08.640 --> 0:17:11.119 So like there's just you know, the guard rails are 0:17:11.160 --> 0:17:12.880 off here, and so I think we have to start 0:17:12.920 --> 0:17:15.960 thinking outside of those norms that we were, you know, 0:17:16.240 --> 0:17:19.680 very well accustomed to leading up to twenty seventeen, and 0:17:19.760 --> 0:17:22.080 they were just absolutely blown out. I think the other 0:17:22.160 --> 0:17:24.400 thing that, you know, there was this sense of inertia 0:17:24.560 --> 0:17:26.800 under the Biden administration. You know, we just didn't get 0:17:26.840 --> 0:17:29.320 a sense for like some of the accomplishments that they 0:17:29.359 --> 0:17:31.960 were doing, and it wasn't made you know, really clear 0:17:32.080 --> 0:17:34.159 to I think most Americans, and we just thought that 0:17:34.240 --> 0:17:37.639 they were just kind of governing, you know, governing in 0:17:38.000 --> 0:17:40.320 a sort of like very quiet way. And now all 0:17:40.320 --> 0:17:42.040 of a sudden, we have a guy back in office 0:17:42.080 --> 0:17:44.719 who's going to make noise every single morning. He's going 0:17:44.760 --> 0:17:47.439 to start to do the sort of chaos by tweet 0:17:47.520 --> 0:17:49.080 or by truth or whatever you want to call it. 0:17:49.320 --> 0:17:52.320 And that sort of uncertainty is really hard. I just 0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:54.520 want to say for businesses as they start. 0:17:54.320 --> 0:17:57.359 Thinking about market hate that right, Well. 0:17:57.400 --> 0:18:01.000 Yes, uncertainty about how they're going to deploy, uncertainly about 0:18:01.040 --> 0:18:02.720 the sort of countries that they're going to be able 0:18:02.960 --> 0:18:04.560 to kind of sell their goods end, where they're going 0:18:04.600 --> 0:18:06.600 to be able to manufacture their goods end, what the 0:18:06.720 --> 0:18:08.760 terrorists are going to look like, again and again. So 0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:11.960 the point about the independence of the central bank is 0:18:12.040 --> 0:18:14.919 that it just has a level of credibility that's away 0:18:14.960 --> 0:18:17.920 from politics. Right, So, the moment that you have a 0:18:18.000 --> 0:18:22.080 political figure like the executive branch, like a president, basically 0:18:22.200 --> 0:18:25.400 making decisions on interest rates, then you have a situation 0:18:25.560 --> 0:18:27.200 where you know there's going to be a lot of 0:18:27.320 --> 0:18:29.280 businesses that are not going to want to do business 0:18:29.359 --> 0:18:32.399 here in the United States because it just seems like 0:18:32.440 --> 0:18:34.680 it's going to be on its way to a Banana Republic. 0:18:34.720 --> 0:18:36.680 And that's not the sort of I think confidence that 0:18:36.760 --> 0:18:38.879 most business people want to have when they're doing business 0:18:38.920 --> 0:18:39.399 in a country. 0:18:39.640 --> 0:18:43.040 Yeah, but a lot of rich people did in fact 0:18:43.240 --> 0:18:45.040 vote for and support Donald Trump. 0:18:45.320 --> 0:18:47.879 So I mean, will they serve as a check on. 0:18:48.160 --> 0:18:50.560 M That's a great question. Okay, I wouldn't expect it 0:18:50.640 --> 0:18:53.440 from Silicon Valley. I wouldn't expect it from Elon Musk. 0:18:53.560 --> 0:18:55.440 I think all those folks you know in the tech 0:18:55.440 --> 0:18:58.399 community and the VC community, and then folks like Elon, 0:18:58.480 --> 0:19:00.200 I think they're in it. They know what they're in for, 0:19:00.440 --> 0:19:02.399 and they're going to let this guy do whatever he wants. 0:19:02.520 --> 0:19:04.800 I will say this about Elon Musk, it's a very 0:19:04.920 --> 0:19:08.399 unique situation. Like, yes, he is the most wealthy man 0:19:08.520 --> 0:19:10.840 in the planet. He's got three hundred billion dollars. He's 0:19:10.880 --> 0:19:14.280 got Tesla that relies on government subsidies, he's got SpaceX 0:19:14.359 --> 0:19:17.200 that relies on government contracts. He has you know, his 0:19:17.400 --> 0:19:20.159 ex you know Twitter sort of thing, which was obviously 0:19:20.280 --> 0:19:23.200 very instrumental in helping Trump get elected. But all of 0:19:23.280 --> 0:19:26.200 those they could have tremendous headwinds from any sort of 0:19:26.240 --> 0:19:28.960 government sort of action. It could be executive action, that 0:19:29.040 --> 0:19:31.440 sort of thing. So Musk on many levels has to 0:19:31.520 --> 0:19:33.680 say on the right side of Trump. And if you 0:19:33.760 --> 0:19:37.200 think about Trump's history with most people who get close 0:19:37.280 --> 0:19:40.560 to him from a governing perspective, it usually ends very bad. 0:19:40.680 --> 0:19:43.160 Now the same is true for Elon Musk, by the way, 0:19:43.240 --> 0:19:46.080 and most of his companies is TEFLA in particular, there's 0:19:46.160 --> 0:19:50.320 been massive, massive turnover. He's a notoriously difficult guy to 0:19:50.440 --> 0:19:52.800 deal with, So I think the tech community is kind 0:19:52.840 --> 0:19:54.800 of screwed. I mean, they know what they're in it for. 0:19:55.240 --> 0:19:57.399 The Wall Street folks. Is kind of interesting to me 0:19:57.600 --> 0:20:00.480 because you know, you look at like Howard Luck Okay, 0:20:00.560 --> 0:20:03.560 he's the head of Kennavic Sderyld. He's running this transition. 0:20:04.000 --> 0:20:06.399 He is like such a B or C player on 0:20:06.520 --> 0:20:08.760 Wall Street. The fact that he was able to work 0:20:08.840 --> 0:20:11.840 his way into this job is very interesting to me. 0:20:11.920 --> 0:20:15.480 That he gets to play kingmaker among Republican politics. You know, 0:20:15.840 --> 0:20:18.520 you won't see guys like Jamie Diamond, the CEO of 0:20:18.640 --> 0:20:21.160 JP Morgan. Yeah, he'll be on some council here and there. 0:20:21.440 --> 0:20:24.400 Might they have some influence on Trump as he thinks 0:20:24.440 --> 0:20:27.360 about tariffs, as he thinks about you know, dollar policy, 0:20:27.480 --> 0:20:30.800 as he thinks about regulation and the like. Maybe, But 0:20:30.920 --> 0:20:33.840 we also know from the first administration that he loved 0:20:34.119 --> 0:20:37.159 bringing those business leaders into the White House, getting the 0:20:37.680 --> 0:20:40.880 photo you know, ops, and then just kind of dismissing them, 0:20:40.960 --> 0:20:42.879 you know, one way or another. So to me, that 0:20:43.240 --> 0:20:46.520 level of kind of pressure from the business community is 0:20:46.640 --> 0:20:48.120 not something that's likely to work. 0:20:48.440 --> 0:20:51.480 Oh, I thought you were going to say it, maybe 0:20:51.600 --> 0:20:52.080 all we have. 0:20:52.920 --> 0:20:54.879 No, I don't think so. Listen, you know, think about this. 0:20:55.080 --> 0:20:58.040 If Jamie Diamond steps on the wrong side of Trump, 0:20:58.080 --> 0:21:00.800 if you, by accident says the wrong thing, there's a 0:21:00.840 --> 0:21:03.800 tweetstorm about the largest bank in the world. Now think 0:21:03.840 --> 0:21:06.320 about this. If you're a CEO of a company like that, 0:21:06.640 --> 0:21:09.320 you have lots of stakeholders that are really important. First 0:21:09.359 --> 0:21:13.880 and foremost you're employees, then your customers, and then your investors, right, 0:21:14.040 --> 0:21:17.320 and so you have a fiduciary responsibility to all of 0:21:17.440 --> 0:21:20.119 those groups there. And so the idea of getting involved 0:21:20.160 --> 0:21:22.720 in politics and being wrongside of one of the most 0:21:22.880 --> 0:21:25.600 vengeful sort of political figures we've ever seen in our life, 0:21:25.920 --> 0:21:28.920 besides like some of the worst authoritarian leaders we've seen 0:21:29.200 --> 0:21:31.760 over the last hundred years and developed countries. I mean, 0:21:31.880 --> 0:21:33.480 I think you have to be very careful. And it 0:21:33.560 --> 0:21:36.919 also goes back to Wednesday, the day after the election. 0:21:37.320 --> 0:21:41.280 Did you see that Satin Nadella Sundra, but Shi Tim Cook, 0:21:41.400 --> 0:21:44.600 all these CEOs of these major tech companies, these more 0:21:45.560 --> 0:21:48.600 co all those congratulates, they want to stay on the 0:21:48.680 --> 0:21:50.960 right side of this thing, and so again this goes 0:21:51.040 --> 0:21:55.280 back to norms. He can't run again. Supposedly he can 0:21:55.359 --> 0:21:57.680 do whatever the hell he wants. He was indicted a 0:21:57.760 --> 0:22:01.200 million times after his last administration. All of those fell 0:22:01.280 --> 0:22:02.960 by the wayside. Do you think he's going to be 0:22:03.000 --> 0:22:04.199 any more restrained right now? 0:22:04.560 --> 0:22:07.159 You're not making me feel better here, Yeah, tell me 0:22:07.320 --> 0:22:09.400 something that makes me feel a little better here. 0:22:09.640 --> 0:22:12.040 Okay, So one thing I'll just say. So. When Trump 0:22:12.119 --> 0:22:15.440 got elected in that big surprise back in twenty sixteen, 0:22:15.640 --> 0:22:18.359 overnight the stock market, they have these futures that trade 0:22:18.400 --> 0:22:21.160 on the stock market, they were down a lot. Okay, 0:22:21.200 --> 0:22:23.560 there were lockdown limit meaning that they put limits in 0:22:23.600 --> 0:22:25.520 place that it can only go down so much when 0:22:25.520 --> 0:22:28.280 it's down, you know a lot, right, And then at 0:22:28.320 --> 0:22:30.560 one point they just started rallying in the morning and 0:22:30.640 --> 0:22:32.720 they kept on going. And then a lot of folks 0:22:32.880 --> 0:22:35.359 just decided that all of these policies are going to 0:22:35.359 --> 0:22:37.040 be good for the stock market, it's going to be 0:22:37.119 --> 0:22:39.280 good for business, that sort of thing. So this time around, 0:22:39.359 --> 0:22:42.240 the stock market was very strong headed into this election. 0:22:42.440 --> 0:22:44.080 You could say that a bit of it had to 0:22:44.160 --> 0:22:46.720 do with the anticipation that he might win. But the 0:22:46.800 --> 0:22:49.800 economy how we started this conversation was also on pretty 0:22:49.840 --> 0:22:53.000 good footing, right, and so therefore that's why the stock 0:22:53.119 --> 0:22:55.720 market was going up. The FED did a nice job 0:22:55.840 --> 0:22:59.399 bringing down inflation. You know, corporate profits were good. You know, 0:22:59.480 --> 0:23:01.520 we are how I mean, the best growth of any 0:23:01.680 --> 0:23:04.879 major developed country in the world. So this time around, 0:23:05.200 --> 0:23:08.320 unless there's some huge geopolitical dust up, you know, something 0:23:08.359 --> 0:23:12.160 with Taiwan and China, that would be a devastating blow 0:23:12.280 --> 0:23:13.360 to the global economy. 0:23:13.680 --> 0:23:16.840 Right, But you feel like the economy is pretty solid. 0:23:17.040 --> 0:23:18.960 I think the economy is very solid. I think the 0:23:19.040 --> 0:23:22.960 biggest risk is that if the policies lead to greater inflation, 0:23:23.080 --> 0:23:26.760 if inflation becomes entrenched in this economy, then we're going 0:23:26.840 --> 0:23:28.520 to have lower growth and we're going to have something 0:23:28.560 --> 0:23:30.880 called stagflation. You and I talked about this a few 0:23:30.920 --> 0:23:33.520 months ago on the pod. That will be very bad 0:23:33.800 --> 0:23:35.760 for the stock market. It will be very bad for 0:23:35.880 --> 0:23:37.040 corporate profits. 0:23:36.960 --> 0:23:37.920 Right, stagflation. 0:23:38.200 --> 0:23:41.480 Just remind our listeners with stagflation is because I totally know, 0:23:41.800 --> 0:23:43.080 but I think they don't know. 0:23:43.520 --> 0:23:45.920 Yeah, higher price for goods and services is you know, 0:23:46.160 --> 0:23:48.280 well above let's say growth rates, and so you have 0:23:48.359 --> 0:23:50.159 slow in growth you have high prices, and you have 0:23:50.240 --> 0:23:51.879 economy that's kind of stuck in the mud. You have 0:23:51.920 --> 0:23:55.280 a consumer that is basically, you know, on the sidelines 0:23:55.359 --> 0:23:58.680 because they are basically worried about prices going higher, and 0:23:58.680 --> 0:24:01.560 they're worried about their and the like. Because when the 0:24:01.680 --> 0:24:05.200 economy slows down and businesses make less profits, they start 0:24:05.520 --> 0:24:08.080 cutting people. And that's the biggest fear. Right now, we 0:24:08.160 --> 0:24:10.560 have unemployment at like four point one four point two percent, 0:24:11.040 --> 0:24:12.920 up from about three and a half percent, which was 0:24:13.119 --> 0:24:15.520 a sixty year low. The worry would be that we 0:24:15.600 --> 0:24:19.240 have unemployment going up dramatically. That will slow consumer spending. 0:24:19.280 --> 0:24:22.280 Consumer spending is two thirds of our economy, and you 0:24:22.320 --> 0:24:23.960 can see how it can just go round and around. 0:24:24.040 --> 0:24:27.040 So if you throw inflation higher for longer, that's going 0:24:27.119 --> 0:24:28.840 to throw a huge monkey wrench into what is a 0:24:28.920 --> 0:24:30.320 pretty decent economy right now. 0:24:30.640 --> 0:24:33.320 Right, Yeah, that does not sound good. But luckily Trump 0:24:33.440 --> 0:24:35.400 is the best minds on it, so we should be fine. 0:24:35.560 --> 0:24:36.960 Yeah. The most brilliant people. 0:24:36.920 --> 0:24:40.520 The most brilliant people right out of Central casting. All right, 0:24:40.640 --> 0:24:42.879 Well that made me feel much better, thank you. 0:24:43.359 --> 0:24:45.600 Well, here's the deal, right, So we're at a position 0:24:45.760 --> 0:24:48.240 here where we know how to deal with this in 0:24:48.359 --> 0:24:50.719 some ways. And so if you think about the quality 0:24:50.760 --> 0:24:53.000 of a lot of these cabinet people, it seems much less, 0:24:53.119 --> 0:24:55.480 and maybe that ineptitude is the thing that doesn't allow 0:24:55.560 --> 0:24:58.000 them to get things done. Maybe we also see, you know, 0:24:58.160 --> 0:24:59.960 some sort of Maybe he's a dictator for a day. 0:25:00.320 --> 0:25:02.679 Maybe he exacts a bunch of vengeance on people who 0:25:02.720 --> 0:25:04.760 have podcasts that do it three times a day, and 0:25:04.840 --> 0:25:07.119 they go on MSNBC and they talk a lot of 0:25:07.160 --> 0:25:10.000 shit about him. But maybe after that it's kind of over, 0:25:10.240 --> 0:25:11.720 you know, and then we kind of get back to 0:25:11.840 --> 0:25:14.920 some sense of normalcy. Maybe he starts worrying about his legacy. 0:25:15.000 --> 0:25:17.639 If you think about the last four years, the guy's 0:25:17.800 --> 0:25:20.639 reputation was mud. He was in and out of courtrooms 0:25:20.680 --> 0:25:22.280 and that sort of thing. Maybe he says to himself, 0:25:22.320 --> 0:25:24.560 you know what, I want history to remember me truly 0:25:24.720 --> 0:25:27.159 as the best president, as the big uniter. You know, 0:25:27.240 --> 0:25:29.760 if you think about the demographics shifts that we saw 0:25:30.320 --> 0:25:33.400 just in this last election, I mean, maybe he does 0:25:33.480 --> 0:25:36.120 have the opportunity to kind of bring some stuff together. 0:25:36.200 --> 0:25:38.720 I'm not optimistic about it, but if you think about 0:25:39.000 --> 0:25:41.880 what he just pulled off, and he's thinking about his legacy. 0:25:42.000 --> 0:25:44.119 I mean, it's something we know he cares about how 0:25:44.160 --> 0:25:46.159 people think of him. Maybe this is a you know, 0:25:46.240 --> 0:25:48.240 the opportunity for a turn for a guy who's probably 0:25:48.280 --> 0:25:50.399 one of the most miserable people that exists on the planet. 0:25:50.520 --> 0:25:51.640 All Right, that don't feel better? 0:25:52.000 --> 0:25:54.960 Thank you, Dan Nathan, Thanks for having me, Mollie. 0:25:57.080 --> 0:26:01.080 Stephen Vladik is a CNN contribute to and the author 0:26:01.240 --> 0:26:05.520 of the Shadow Docket. Welcome back to Fast Politics, Steven. 0:26:05.320 --> 0:26:06.560 Thanks Molly. Great to be back with you. 0:26:06.960 --> 0:26:09.920 So I wanted to have you on as soon as 0:26:10.119 --> 0:26:14.760 Tuesday started to unfold the way that it started to unfold, 0:26:15.400 --> 0:26:18.840 I thought to myself, Okay, Donald Trump is going to 0:26:18.880 --> 0:26:24.040 be president again, and Republicans are going to win the Senate. 0:26:24.160 --> 0:26:27.080 We knew that was a fedocomplay, and I think it's 0:26:27.160 --> 0:26:29.760 almost one hundred percent that they're going to keep the House. 0:26:29.960 --> 0:26:33.600 So I'm wondering in my mind there is only one check. 0:26:34.000 --> 0:26:36.520 It is a wobbly one, which will be the courts. 0:26:36.760 --> 0:26:38.840 I mean, I agree with that, Molly, and I think 0:26:39.040 --> 0:26:41.239 you know, there are two things about that that are 0:26:41.280 --> 0:26:43.680 worth saying in a bit more detail. The first is 0:26:44.119 --> 0:26:47.160 Trump had a trifecta part of his first term too, 0:26:47.720 --> 0:26:50.760 but he never had the margin in the Senate that 0:26:50.880 --> 0:26:53.560 he's going to have, and so he could be thwarted 0:26:53.840 --> 0:26:57.000 right by John McKay and or Lisa Murkowski in a 0:26:57.040 --> 0:27:00.200 way that won't be true. Started in January. And then 0:27:00.400 --> 0:27:03.080 the second piece of that is, you know, so many 0:27:03.160 --> 0:27:05.479 folks like us are conditioned to think that the Supreme 0:27:05.560 --> 0:27:09.240 Court can do nothing right. But the Court actually pushed 0:27:09.320 --> 0:27:12.119 back a lot against Trump during his first term, more 0:27:12.560 --> 0:27:15.600 than we might have expected for Republican president. And I 0:27:15.680 --> 0:27:18.399 think it's not you know, it's not a given that 0:27:18.600 --> 0:27:20.360 is just going to roll over in a second term, 0:27:20.680 --> 0:27:23.280 especially if, as you say, it looks likely it's going 0:27:23.359 --> 0:27:24.040 to be all that's left. 0:27:24.280 --> 0:27:27.200 Yeah, and I think that is where we are. So 0:27:27.320 --> 0:27:28.919 one of the reasons why I wanted you to come 0:27:29.000 --> 0:27:32.200 on is because you're so smart. But also you've written 0:27:32.480 --> 0:27:35.560 so much about this court. I mean, you are basically 0:27:35.680 --> 0:27:38.800 the person who got people thinking about and talking about 0:27:38.840 --> 0:27:41.600 the shadow. I mean, first, the Supreme Court did it 0:27:41.840 --> 0:27:44.920 by essentially using it to overturn Roe v. 0:27:45.040 --> 0:27:45.879 Wade with SBA. 0:27:46.080 --> 0:27:47.680 I mean, they did other stuff with it, but that 0:27:47.920 --> 0:27:52.320 is I feel like the largest, most profound change they 0:27:52.400 --> 0:27:55.760 made on the shadow docket, but by allowing SBA to 0:27:55.920 --> 0:27:59.479 stay in Texas, they essentially overturned Row. 0:27:59.480 --> 0:28:01.520 A year book for Roe was overturned. 0:28:01.960 --> 0:28:04.280 That's right, I mean, Molly, I would say, from a 0:28:04.400 --> 0:28:08.000 political consequences perspective, I would one up you just with 0:28:08.160 --> 0:28:11.800 the Alabama redistrict in case in February twenty twenty two, 0:28:11.960 --> 0:28:16.080 because what was so significant about the court's unsigned, unexplained 0:28:16.160 --> 0:28:20.080 intervention in that case, which put back into effect Alabama's 0:28:20.320 --> 0:28:23.840 you know, unlawful congressional district map is it basically gave 0:28:23.880 --> 0:28:26.960 Republicans control of the House in the current Congress. You 0:28:27.040 --> 0:28:31.320 can tie a pretty straight line from that unexplained majority 0:28:31.359 --> 0:28:35.800 pit you know majority ruling to five Republican House seats 0:28:35.840 --> 0:28:38.960 that would otherwise be democratic, and that's, you know, that's 0:28:38.960 --> 0:28:42.440 the Republican margin right now. So the point, which I mean, 0:28:42.560 --> 0:28:44.360 it doesn't matter which case you used to make it 0:28:44.760 --> 0:28:46.520 is that, yeah, this is a court that has done 0:28:46.680 --> 0:28:49.440 more and more big stuff affecting all of us with 0:28:49.600 --> 0:28:52.240 less and less explanation, and that's not been great. 0:28:53.320 --> 0:28:55.840 I don't want to be a doomer about this Trump term. 0:28:56.160 --> 0:28:58.040 That's not to say that I want to normalize it. 0:28:58.160 --> 0:29:01.240 I think the guys that complete a democratic autocrat, But 0:29:01.920 --> 0:29:05.920 I do think that we still have checks and balances 0:29:06.200 --> 0:29:09.640 and that Dumerism is actually the enemy, and that it's 0:29:09.760 --> 0:29:12.560 much better to sort of talk through. And especially when 0:29:12.600 --> 0:29:16.920 you think about this court, which is filled with you know, 0:29:17.800 --> 0:29:22.000 Trump put in three Supreme Court justices, but I don't 0:29:22.040 --> 0:29:25.800 think they think they serve at the present pleasure of 0:29:25.880 --> 0:29:26.440 Donald Trump. 0:29:26.520 --> 0:29:28.600 I think Donald Trump thinks that, but I don't think 0:29:28.680 --> 0:29:29.200 they think that. 0:29:29.640 --> 0:29:31.520 I think that's really astute, and I think that's a 0:29:31.600 --> 0:29:35.680 really important point that just because the current you know, 0:29:35.840 --> 0:29:38.760 conservative majority on the Supreme Court rules in ways that 0:29:38.840 --> 0:29:40.600 a lot of us don't like in most of the 0:29:40.680 --> 0:29:42.720 cases we care about, doesn't mean that they're in the 0:29:42.800 --> 0:29:45.520 bag for Trump. The problem I think that we run 0:29:45.560 --> 0:29:48.280 into is a problem of the court's own making Molly right, 0:29:48.360 --> 0:29:50.960 which is, you know, the Court had a really good 0:29:51.000 --> 0:29:54.280 opportunity just this summer to show us just how not 0:29:54.560 --> 0:29:56.760 in the bag for Trump they are in the January 0:29:56.800 --> 0:30:00.520 Sex Community case, and you know, five of the Republican 0:30:00.600 --> 0:30:04.240 appointees flunked. Only just as Amy Cony Barrett seem to 0:30:04.760 --> 0:30:07.960 understand the implications of the decision, that the rest of 0:30:08.000 --> 0:30:10.440 the court signed on too, So I'm with you. I 0:30:10.600 --> 0:30:14.920 think numerism is counterproductive, and actually I think sort of 0:30:14.960 --> 0:30:16.960 feeds into the problem. And I also think that just 0:30:17.040 --> 0:30:19.600 as a matter of who they are, someone like a 0:30:19.720 --> 0:30:22.160 John Roberts or a Brett Kavanaugh or at Amy Cony Barrett, 0:30:22.600 --> 0:30:24.800 you know, they're gonna not do what I want them 0:30:24.840 --> 0:30:27.000 to do in almost all the cases that matter. But 0:30:27.400 --> 0:30:31.000 are they gonna let Trump dismantle birthright citizenship? I can't 0:30:31.080 --> 0:30:33.840 imagine they are. Are they gonna let Trump destroy the 0:30:33.960 --> 0:30:37.440 civil service in the executive branch? I can't imagine they are. 0:30:37.640 --> 0:30:41.040 And so the fact that they'll draw the line closer 0:30:41.120 --> 0:30:43.520 to Trump than you or I would doesn't mean that 0:30:43.560 --> 0:30:45.880 they're not gonna draw a line. That may be sort 0:30:45.880 --> 0:30:49.080 of small solace to folks who are you know, rightly 0:30:49.200 --> 0:30:51.920 concerned about a Republican trifecta for the next two or 0:30:51.960 --> 0:30:54.440 four years. But I think we should not give up 0:30:54.480 --> 0:30:56.880 the ghost that it's importantly more than nothing. 0:30:57.240 --> 0:31:00.440 Yeah, I also think that it's more important to stay 0:31:00.880 --> 0:31:03.360 in this. And I mean, I also want you to 0:31:03.440 --> 0:31:06.960 talk because I was texting the sky Perryman yesterday. We 0:31:07.080 --> 0:31:10.560 were we were talking about like how the left needs 0:31:10.640 --> 0:31:14.160 to think about this next Trump term. And we were 0:31:14.160 --> 0:31:17.440 talking about like Donald Trump has lost in court a 0:31:17.680 --> 0:31:18.920 number of times. 0:31:19.200 --> 0:31:20.520 Will you expand on that? 0:31:21.000 --> 0:31:21.200 Sure? 0:31:21.280 --> 0:31:23.880 I mean, so, you know, Trump when he was president 0:31:24.240 --> 0:31:27.200 had about as poor a track record in the lower 0:31:27.240 --> 0:31:30.200 federal courts and in the Supreme Court as any president 0:31:30.280 --> 0:31:33.880 in a long time, molly, including democratic presidents right before 0:31:33.920 --> 0:31:36.240 a not very different court, you know, just to name 0:31:36.280 --> 0:31:39.000 a couple of cases. Right, So, with regard to the 0:31:39.080 --> 0:31:42.000 travel band, Trump had to do three versions of that 0:31:42.240 --> 0:31:44.880 because the first two got struck down by the courts, 0:31:45.000 --> 0:31:48.320 including the second one partly by the Supreme Court. Trump 0:31:48.440 --> 0:31:51.320 couldn't ask a citizenship question on the twenty twenty census 0:31:51.400 --> 0:31:55.120 because the Supreme Court stopped him. Right, Trump couldn't rescind DHAKA, 0:31:55.280 --> 0:31:58.160 the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals immigration program because the 0:31:58.200 --> 0:32:01.320 Supreme Court stopped him. And this is a different court, 0:32:01.440 --> 0:32:04.240 I mean, right, This is a court without Ruth Badergensberg 0:32:04.280 --> 0:32:05.960 and with Amy Cony Barrett. It is a court that, 0:32:06.520 --> 0:32:10.400 since Trump left office, has decided Dobbs and Bruin and 0:32:11.080 --> 0:32:14.320 you know, the Affirmative Action cases. But I still think 0:32:14.440 --> 0:32:18.280 that there really is daylight between where the median justices 0:32:18.320 --> 0:32:20.600 on the court are and a lot of what Trump 0:32:20.680 --> 0:32:23.160 is going to want to accomplish when it comes to 0:32:23.360 --> 0:32:26.280 the legality and the constitutionality of you know, his second 0:32:26.360 --> 0:32:26.880 term agenda. 0:32:27.280 --> 0:32:30.200 Right, and again this is back to Donald Trump as 0:32:30.280 --> 0:32:33.920 bad as bad at courts. It really seems so far, 0:32:34.000 --> 0:32:36.680 and we just have seen very few appointments, but we've 0:32:36.720 --> 0:32:40.680 seen two big appointments, two that strike me as kind 0:32:40.720 --> 0:32:43.120 of the headlines and what he wants to do next, 0:32:43.200 --> 0:32:46.600 and those are Tom Holman and Steven Miller. I mean, 0:32:46.800 --> 0:32:49.440 it seems like mass deportation is going to be the 0:32:49.560 --> 0:32:52.720 first move that seems to me like something that is 0:32:52.800 --> 0:32:55.520 going to run a fat home the Court's very quickly. 0:32:56.000 --> 0:32:58.240 I mean, I think that's right. And you know, Molly, 0:32:58.360 --> 0:33:00.680 I think we're going to see a lot of you know, 0:33:00.840 --> 0:33:04.840 blue states and more left winged groups taking pages from 0:33:05.040 --> 0:33:07.680 like Ken Paxton's playbook in the Trump administration. 0:33:08.040 --> 0:33:09.120 That's just what I was thinking. 0:33:09.240 --> 0:33:12.400 Go on, yeah, and they're going to find sympathetic lower courts, 0:33:12.440 --> 0:33:16.360 whether they're you know, in California or Maryland or Massachusetts 0:33:16.440 --> 0:33:18.520 or what have you, the same way that you know, 0:33:18.600 --> 0:33:21.000 the Republicans have kept going to Texas over the last 0:33:21.080 --> 0:33:23.920 four years. Again, right, that's going to put pressure on 0:33:24.080 --> 0:33:27.280 the Supreme Court. Right first on you know, the shadow docket, 0:33:27.400 --> 0:33:31.240 first with regard to what will surely be emergency requests 0:33:31.400 --> 0:33:34.040 from the Trump administration to get out from under those 0:33:34.080 --> 0:33:36.280 lower court rule ins. And then on the merits. And 0:33:36.360 --> 0:33:38.520 I guess I'll just say, like you know, I spend 0:33:38.560 --> 0:33:41.400 a lot of time criticizing the Supreme Court. There's a 0:33:41.480 --> 0:33:44.800 difference between the Supreme Court getting a particular legal issue, 0:33:45.080 --> 0:33:47.800 in my view, wrong, and a Supreme Court sort of 0:33:47.920 --> 0:33:50.960 giving up its institutional responsibility as a check on the 0:33:51.160 --> 0:33:53.880 elected branches. This is where the immunity case is a 0:33:53.960 --> 0:33:56.960 real problem. But it's not the end. And I don't 0:33:57.000 --> 0:33:59.000 take it as a sign that John Roberts and Brett 0:33:59.040 --> 0:34:02.000 Kavanaugh are done. I think it's just, you know why 0:34:02.200 --> 0:34:04.960 a lot of folks who are not inclined to give 0:34:05.000 --> 0:34:07.200 them the benefit of the doubt are not inclined to 0:34:07.200 --> 0:34:08.200 give them the benefit of the doubt. 0:34:08.480 --> 0:34:10.080 I do not want to wish cast here. 0:34:10.239 --> 0:34:12.560 I got in trouble in the twenty twenty four cycle 0:34:12.719 --> 0:34:14.439 for my sunny optimism if. 0:34:14.360 --> 0:34:18.399 You can believe it. But Roberts does come from Reagan world. 0:34:18.760 --> 0:34:22.319 These people had an idea they were trying to put 0:34:22.440 --> 0:34:24.759 on the country, which they have been able to do 0:34:25.000 --> 0:34:28.440 via Donald Trump. But it's not necessarily Donald Trump's idea 0:34:28.560 --> 0:34:29.880 of what he wants for the country. 0:34:30.120 --> 0:34:31.480 I think this is right, and I think this is 0:34:31.520 --> 0:34:35.480 why it's really helpful to separate out the six Republican appointees, 0:34:35.960 --> 0:34:39.080 not by which president appointed them, but by what their 0:34:39.120 --> 0:34:39.880 north stars are. 0:34:40.120 --> 0:34:40.279 Right. 0:34:40.400 --> 0:34:43.759 So I think of a John Roberts and a Brett Kavanaugh, 0:34:44.120 --> 0:34:46.680 and I think even Amy Coni Barrett as folks whose 0:34:46.760 --> 0:34:50.759 north stars are legal principles molly that have long been 0:34:50.840 --> 0:34:54.120 part of the conservative legal establishment's agenda. And I don't 0:34:54.360 --> 0:34:56.920 like a lot of those principles. I have real problems 0:34:56.960 --> 0:35:00.800 with many of those principles, but they are principles versus 0:35:01.280 --> 0:35:04.799 I think you can more fairly level the charge at 0:35:04.920 --> 0:35:08.120 someone like a Justice Samuel Alito or Justice Clarence Thomas, 0:35:08.200 --> 0:35:11.520 or indeed Justice Neil Gorsic that increasingly their votes look 0:35:11.640 --> 0:35:14.919 like their only principle is who's winning and who's losing. 0:35:15.200 --> 0:35:18.319 And you know, in a second Trump term, I think 0:35:18.640 --> 0:35:21.880 the first trio is going to be much more important 0:35:21.920 --> 0:35:24.600 than the second trio, because that's going to be, you know, 0:35:24.719 --> 0:35:26.719 the thing to watch. Are they going to stand up 0:35:26.800 --> 0:35:30.560 for principles in cases in which you know, Trump runs 0:35:30.600 --> 0:35:32.440 about of them, which you know, I mean, Molly, we 0:35:32.560 --> 0:35:34.600 might not know exactly which cases they'll be, but they 0:35:34.680 --> 0:35:36.080 will be cases, right. 0:35:36.400 --> 0:35:36.440 No. 0:35:36.680 --> 0:35:40.040 No, I think it's fair to say his first plan, 0:35:40.880 --> 0:35:44.520 this idea of doing camps. Even if you use the 0:35:44.640 --> 0:35:48.880 Alien Insurrection Act of seventeen ninety eight or whatever it is, 0:35:49.040 --> 0:35:51.680 you would need to have a foreign war. I mean, 0:35:51.960 --> 0:35:54.600 the whole theory of the case here is pretty flimsy. 0:35:55.000 --> 0:35:56.880 I mean, folks may not remember, but you know, the 0:35:57.080 --> 0:36:00.600 first travel ban was like the first weekend of Trump's 0:36:00.640 --> 0:36:03.120 first term. The reason why that never got off the 0:36:03.200 --> 0:36:06.280 ground was because of federal judges, federal judges in Brooklyn 0:36:06.520 --> 0:36:10.320 and in California and Hawaii and Seattle. And you know, 0:36:10.440 --> 0:36:12.920 I think that's what we're in for again. And I 0:36:13.320 --> 0:36:16.759 totally understand why people are going to come into a 0:36:16.840 --> 0:36:19.600 second Trump term with less faith that the courts are 0:36:19.640 --> 0:36:21.160 going to save us. The courts are not going to 0:36:21.200 --> 0:36:23.759 save us, but the courts might at least save themselves. 0:36:24.080 --> 0:36:27.600 And I think that's you know that means standing up 0:36:27.760 --> 0:36:30.080 for the role of the courts in our system. It 0:36:30.200 --> 0:36:32.640 means pushing back when the president does thems that are 0:36:32.680 --> 0:36:36.440 flagrantly unconstitutional. And I think, you know, ironically, Molly, the 0:36:36.640 --> 0:36:40.160 faster Trump pushes, the more push back he will engender 0:36:40.520 --> 0:36:41.320 from the judiciary. 0:36:41.680 --> 0:36:44.279 Yes, I think that is for sure true. 0:36:44.560 --> 0:36:47.239 And you know what I'm struck by just from the 0:36:47.440 --> 0:36:52.759 early cabinet right now is just how it seems very 0:36:52.840 --> 0:36:55.920 focused on deportation, whereas I mean, again, obviously this was 0:36:55.960 --> 0:36:59.960 about Senate confirmation. Yes, but Marco Rubio does not see 0:37:00.200 --> 0:37:03.400 so you know, he's aligned with the George W. Bush 0:37:03.560 --> 0:37:06.239 or it's not like he put Tom Cotton in there. 0:37:07.440 --> 0:37:10.160 Indeed, although you know, the line between Rubio and Cotton 0:37:10.200 --> 0:37:12.960 may be elusive, but no, I mean, you know, I mean, 0:37:13.239 --> 0:37:15.640 I'll just say, like, if we're looking at someone like 0:37:15.719 --> 0:37:18.759 a Marco Rubio as Secretary of State as opposed to 0:37:19.360 --> 0:37:23.239 you know, someone who is an absolute lunatic right when 0:37:23.280 --> 0:37:25.880 it comes to foreign policy, right, if we're looking at 0:37:25.920 --> 0:37:27.720 you know, I saw a story this afternoon that Matthew 0:37:27.719 --> 0:37:31.239 Whittaker is back under consideration to be Attorney General. You know, 0:37:31.520 --> 0:37:33.200 I don't think Whittaker is going to go down in 0:37:33.239 --> 0:37:37.160 the pantheon of great attorneys general. But that's still not 0:37:37.280 --> 0:37:39.919 the same thing as you know, the former gorsicch clerk 0:37:40.000 --> 0:37:42.799 Mike Davis, who's on social media talking about how we're 0:37:42.800 --> 0:37:46.600 going to prosecute everyone who's ever criticized President Trump. It's 0:37:46.680 --> 0:37:50.520 going to be really important for folks to be nuanced 0:37:51.120 --> 0:37:53.960 in how we assess the threats to the rule of 0:37:54.040 --> 0:37:54.960 law that are coming. 0:37:55.280 --> 0:37:58.680 So there's only so much energy. And I also think 0:37:58.760 --> 0:38:01.280 that the really important it's going to be it cannot 0:38:01.320 --> 0:38:05.279 be a stylistic question. It needs to be a subpintive question, 0:38:05.440 --> 0:38:09.239 like Trump will do things that we won't like personally, 0:38:09.840 --> 0:38:12.560 but it's a question of when it does sort of 0:38:12.760 --> 0:38:15.600 mess up the rule of law or American democracy. 0:38:15.680 --> 0:38:17.200 I mean to protect institutions. 0:38:17.239 --> 0:38:20.040 Speaking of institutions, I want you to talk to us 0:38:20.280 --> 0:38:25.200 about the Alito Thomas retirement question. 0:38:27.200 --> 0:38:29.279 Will they go or won't they? So I mean, I 0:38:29.360 --> 0:38:33.080 think the first thing to say is November twelfth is 0:38:33.239 --> 0:38:35.920 not the time to have this conversation, not you and me, 0:38:36.120 --> 0:38:39.200 but the public discourse around this, right, even if they've 0:38:39.239 --> 0:38:41.600 both made up their minds to retire, and I suspect 0:38:41.719 --> 0:38:44.840 neither of them have now me too, right, They're not 0:38:45.080 --> 0:38:48.640 gonna say anything until at the earliest next summer and 0:38:48.760 --> 0:38:51.600 even then, right, So, you know, I think folks that 0:38:51.760 --> 0:38:53.399 just sort of take a little bit of a breath. 0:38:53.719 --> 0:38:57.359 I do think that both Alito and Thomas are invested 0:38:58.120 --> 0:39:02.120 in having President Trump at some point name their successors. 0:39:02.520 --> 0:39:04.480 But I also think that they both kind of like 0:39:04.560 --> 0:39:06.840 their jobs. You know, Thomas is just a couple of 0:39:06.920 --> 0:39:09.960 years away from being the longest serving justice in the 0:39:10.080 --> 0:39:12.840 Court's history. That you know, he might say publicly that 0:39:12.880 --> 0:39:14.840 doesn't matter to him. I don't believe that. 0:39:15.080 --> 0:39:17.040 I think he said that he wants to be the 0:39:17.120 --> 0:39:17.840 longest serving. 0:39:18.040 --> 0:39:18.160 Right. 0:39:18.560 --> 0:39:19.960 One of the amazing things that if you've been on 0:39:19.960 --> 0:39:21.719 the core for thirty three years, people will find you 0:39:21.800 --> 0:39:22.920 saying everything. 0:39:22.680 --> 0:39:23.640 Right but true. 0:39:24.000 --> 0:39:27.520 I think the reality is that they will both likely, 0:39:28.200 --> 0:39:30.720 you know, sort of not worry about this until next summer, 0:39:31.000 --> 0:39:34.400 and then it becomes a live question only because you know, 0:39:34.440 --> 0:39:36.400 it will be interested in who the potential nominies are 0:39:36.480 --> 0:39:38.880 to succeed them. I was struck. There's a story in 0:39:39.000 --> 0:39:41.239 the Wall Street Journal, you know, as we're recording this 0:39:41.640 --> 0:39:45.279 about how quote sources close to Aledo unquote say he 0:39:45.360 --> 0:39:47.960 has no plans to retire. First of all, that's the 0:39:48.040 --> 0:39:50.320 exact story I would want out if I did have 0:39:50.440 --> 0:39:53.759 plans to retire. But second, it's just too early. I 0:39:53.800 --> 0:39:56.160 think there's almost no question that Trump will get to 0:39:56.200 --> 0:39:58.600 replace at least one of them. But whether that's next 0:39:58.680 --> 0:40:00.920 year or two years from now, well we're three or 0:40:00.960 --> 0:40:03.160 four years from now. I think it's going to depend 0:40:03.200 --> 0:40:05.680 on a lot of what happens between now and then. 0:40:05.960 --> 0:40:08.960 Yeah, but it is incredible that he will have put 0:40:09.080 --> 0:40:11.800 in so many Supreme Court justices. 0:40:12.320 --> 0:40:15.440 The last president who got to appoint a majority of 0:40:15.760 --> 0:40:18.120 the Court was Eisenhower, and that was in a very 0:40:18.200 --> 0:40:23.360 different period. And Eisenhower's appointees included Earl Warren, who was 0:40:23.719 --> 0:40:27.360 the famous liberal Chief Justice Bill Brennan, who was like 0:40:27.480 --> 0:40:29.879 the leader of the left wing of the Court into 0:40:29.920 --> 0:40:32.719 the nineteen eighties. Right, So Eisenhower had the ability to 0:40:32.800 --> 0:40:36.440 do it, but he actually had a diverse slate of appointees. 0:40:36.520 --> 0:40:38.160 That hasn't been, of course, what we've seen from Trump. 0:40:38.280 --> 0:40:41.200 If you had to guess a Supreme Court justice who 0:40:41.400 --> 0:40:45.400 would not disappoint you in the profound way they tend to, 0:40:46.000 --> 0:40:46.560 who would it be? 0:40:47.120 --> 0:40:49.120 Who Trump might nominate because there are all people Trump 0:40:49.160 --> 0:40:49.880 wouldn't nominate this. 0:40:49.960 --> 0:40:52.759 No, no, I mean people on the Court right now 0:40:53.080 --> 0:40:57.279 who might possibly be less disappointing if it comes to, 0:40:57.520 --> 0:41:00.800 you know, sort of something you know, that might break 0:41:00.880 --> 0:41:02.080 with the majority. 0:41:02.719 --> 0:41:04.960 I don't think there's any question actually that of the 0:41:05.000 --> 0:41:08.600 six Republican appointees the first vote, who would join the 0:41:08.640 --> 0:41:11.479 three Democratic appointees in a big rule of law cases. 0:41:11.520 --> 0:41:14.439 Amy Cody Barrett, I think that became clear last term. 0:41:14.600 --> 0:41:17.719 I mean, I think she, you know, wrote separately in 0:41:17.840 --> 0:41:22.320 the Colorado disqualification case. She wrote separately in the January 0:41:22.360 --> 0:41:25.160 sixth community case. She you know, dissented in one of 0:41:25.200 --> 0:41:27.480 the biggest environmental cases of the term. She dissented in 0:41:27.520 --> 0:41:29.919 the January sixth obstruction case. I mean, I think Molly, 0:41:30.080 --> 0:41:32.719 she really has, I think, come out of her shell 0:41:32.800 --> 0:41:35.640 a bit. Not as a more moderate justice than we expected, 0:41:35.840 --> 0:41:37.640 but again, I mean back to what we were talking 0:41:37.680 --> 0:41:40.160 about a few minutes ago, as a justice for whom 0:41:40.239 --> 0:41:43.120 the principles come first and the politics come second. You know, 0:41:43.400 --> 0:41:45.680 that's who you're going to need in a big rule 0:41:45.719 --> 0:41:47.799 of law case. What I think is so striking about 0:41:47.960 --> 0:41:51.800 last term is that I had assumed the big cases 0:41:51.800 --> 0:41:54.120 would be the ones where she would join Roberts and 0:41:54.320 --> 0:41:56.960 the Demes, and it turned out the big cases were 0:41:56.960 --> 0:41:59.480 the ones in which, you know, she joined the Dems 0:41:59.520 --> 0:42:02.200 and descent because you couldn't get Roberts. And so, you know, 0:42:02.360 --> 0:42:04.840 that's why I actually think John Roberts would already have 0:42:04.880 --> 0:42:08.040 been massively important in a second Trump administration. But he really, 0:42:08.120 --> 0:42:11.200 I think, will be the median in any cases that 0:42:11.360 --> 0:42:14.480 have these massive rule of law implications where the justices 0:42:14.520 --> 0:42:16.200 are in any way ideologically divided. 0:42:16.520 --> 0:42:19.279 Thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you. 0:42:19.760 --> 0:42:22.200 There's a little bit to feel better about in there. 0:42:22.440 --> 0:42:24.040 I spend a lot of my time in front of 0:42:24.200 --> 0:42:26.799 classrooms full of students who I'm trying to convince at 0:42:26.840 --> 0:42:29.239 once both that the law matters and that we should 0:42:29.280 --> 0:42:32.439 be realistic about it, right. And you know, to me, Molly, 0:42:32.520 --> 0:42:35.520 the message is just that the Supreme Court might disappoint 0:42:35.640 --> 0:42:37.960 us a lot, but I'd rather a Supreme Court that's 0:42:37.960 --> 0:42:39.839 going to stand up for us some of the time, 0:42:40.239 --> 0:42:44.239 right than a complete tyranny of the majority, especially given 0:42:44.280 --> 0:42:46.799 the majority we're facing in the coming couple of years. 0:42:47.080 --> 0:42:55.160 Yeah, thank you, Steven, Thanks Molly. No, moment, Jesse. 0:42:55.280 --> 0:42:59.120 Cannon, Molly John Fast, I'm so happy we're already getting 0:42:59.200 --> 0:43:02.840 new Trumps. We got the first buddy. Now, Elon Musk, 0:43:02.880 --> 0:43:03.640 what do you see it here? 0:43:04.040 --> 0:43:08.400 I am seeing that Elon Musk is calling himself the 0:43:08.520 --> 0:43:14.000 first Buddy's so fucking up. I am going to let 0:43:14.080 --> 0:43:17.879 that sink in for a minute, but I just want 0:43:17.920 --> 0:43:21.359 to say that Donald Trump is getting kind of sick 0:43:21.400 --> 0:43:25.720 of it already. When he was in the House talking 0:43:25.800 --> 0:43:29.239 to Republicans today, it was reported he thanked Musk for 0:43:29.360 --> 0:43:32.919 everything he did in the election, but added quote, now 0:43:33.120 --> 0:43:36.000 I can't get rid of him. Okay, I want to 0:43:36.080 --> 0:43:41.319 point out the election was eight days ago. Okay, now 0:43:41.520 --> 0:43:44.040 I can't get rid of him. It's been eight days 0:43:44.280 --> 0:43:47.040 of Trump having to deal with Elon and he's already saying. 0:43:46.880 --> 0:43:49.160 That, I mean, would you last any longer? 0:43:49.440 --> 0:43:49.840 I don't know. 0:43:50.880 --> 0:43:54.960 And then he's behaving as if he's a co president 0:43:55.080 --> 0:43:57.480 and making sure everyone knows it. One of the people's 0:43:57.520 --> 0:44:00.760 said of Musk, and he's taking a lot of credit 0:44:00.880 --> 0:44:05.080 for the President's victory, bragging about America pack and X 0:44:05.239 --> 0:44:08.160 to anyone who will listen. He's trying to make President 0:44:08.239 --> 0:44:12.120 Trump feel indebted to him, and the president is indebted 0:44:12.239 --> 0:44:15.239 to no one. This person added, I'm sorry. This has 0:44:15.480 --> 0:44:17.400 long been my theory of the case. You know, we 0:44:17.520 --> 0:44:20.480 talk about Democrats being a big tent, but there is 0:44:20.640 --> 0:44:26.560 no tent big enough for anti Semites, Zionists, anti vaxers, 0:44:27.040 --> 0:44:32.440 Elon and Donald Trump's ego and Bill Ackman like I 0:44:32.640 --> 0:44:36.040 think that this is going to be a very very 0:44:36.520 --> 0:44:37.719 very short lived tent. 0:44:38.440 --> 0:44:40.880 I think the polls are already wobbling. 0:44:41.960 --> 0:44:46.120 That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in 0:44:46.640 --> 0:44:52.040 every Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday to hear the best 0:44:52.160 --> 0:44:56.440 minds and politics make sense of all this chaos. If 0:44:56.480 --> 0:44:59.480 you enjoy this podcast, please send it to a friend 0:45:00.040 --> 0:45:01.560 and keep the conversation going. 0:45:02.080 --> 0:45:03.160 Thanks for listening.