Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. All right, on
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg terminal, we talked about this story Jared Dillion,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion Columns. He writes that Americans are talking themselves
Speaker 1: into a recession. We're already seeing that in the housing market.
Speaker 1: Tim u s home sale cancelations jumping in June, roughly
Speaker 1: sixty deals falling through. That's about fift of homes that
Speaker 1: entered into a contract according to Redfin. We're wondering what
Speaker 1: the consumers up to. Yeah, what is the consumer up to,
Speaker 1: especially ahead of Prime Day and what's actually going on,
Speaker 1: you know with marketplace sellers when it comes to prime day.
Speaker 1: For that, we turned to Tom McGee, the president and
Speaker 1: CEO of I C s C. Tom joins us on
Speaker 1: the phone from Los Angeles. Tom good to have you
Speaker 1: with us. He should note that I C s C
Speaker 1: promotes as you meant as you write on the website
Speaker 1: and elevates the marketplaces and spaces where people shop, dine,
Speaker 1: work and play. So think brick and mortar. Here. Give
Speaker 1: us an idea, Tom, of of what you're thinking and
Speaker 1: what you're seeing right now as we look across the
Speaker 1: economic landscape and try to get an understanding for the
Speaker 1: shifting way that people are spending money. Well, good afternoon,
Speaker 1: Thanks for having me on High, Tim High Carroll. Uh,
Speaker 1: it's good to be with you again. Look, I think
Speaker 1: the consumer has been exceptionally resilient UM over the course
Speaker 1: of obviously the last couple of months, where a placent
Speaker 1: concerns have been you know, significant and heightened. You know,
Speaker 1: I do think that will continue to see strong retail
Speaker 1: sales over the next you know, a few months. You
Speaker 1: still have a high level of personal savings and the
Speaker 1: job market is strong UM. But you know, I think
Speaker 1: if inflation continues to be UM, you know, front and center,
Speaker 1: and continues to be at the levels that it is today,
Speaker 1: of course, at some point it's going to have a
Speaker 1: negative impact upon consumer spending. Right now, you know, you
Speaker 1: still have those strong underlying um, you know, considerations of
Speaker 1: personal savings and jobs and that's going to drive you know,
Speaker 1: continue drive to spend, and you know that bolts in retail,
Speaker 1: but also in experiences. I mean, it is the summertime
Speaker 1: and we've all you know, experienced and witness what's happening,
Speaker 1: you know, with the traffic at the airports, that on planes, etcetera.
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of folks spending money on experiential
Speaker 1: type of things, whether there's travel or going out to
Speaker 1: doing the things that they like to do in the
Speaker 1: summer and to many extent haven't been able to do
Speaker 1: for the last couple of years. Well, do you feel like,
Speaker 1: toime your members are feeling a little like they're a
Speaker 1: little cautious looking at the second half of the year
Speaker 1: and maybe into because I agree him and I've spent
Speaker 1: more time in the airport than we have in the
Speaker 1: last couple of years in a big way, they can
Speaker 1: convert some of the space, you know, empty retail space
Speaker 1: around to bigger airports. Because we are a seriously person
Speaker 1: that seem yeah, exactly. And so I just I wonder
Speaker 1: what your members are saying that people would rather travel
Speaker 1: right now than maybe go buy some more clothes or
Speaker 1: stuff for the home. Well, I think generally speaking, you
Speaker 1: know when people you know, in a in a in
Speaker 1: a normal environment, you know, pre HOVID, pre inflation concerns, etcetera,
Speaker 1: that you know, when you have a high level of
Speaker 1: travel and experiential type of spend that generally was good
Speaker 1: for retail. I mean, when people are out and they're
Speaker 1: spending and their vacationing, they're going to buy a lot
Speaker 1: of stuff and that's generally good for retailing. And of
Speaker 1: course a lot of retail centers are you know, places
Speaker 1: where people go, um, you know, it's been those experience
Speaker 1: with dollars. So I think generally speaking, you know, that
Speaker 1: type of spend is not negative for for retail. I mean,
Speaker 1: obviously there's ebbs and flows as a relates to the
Speaker 1: time of the year and so forth. I think the
Speaker 1: level of concern, you know, I think as it relates
Speaker 1: to the industry and the broader consumer is just you know,
Speaker 1: the thing that we all have um a level of
Speaker 1: concern around, which is inflation. And you know, if this
Speaker 1: continues at the current rate, that is you know, history
Speaker 1: is going to be our guide and that's always been
Speaker 1: a negative over the long run for consumer spending and
Speaker 1: obviously for the economy. If we're able to get inflation
Speaker 1: under the control under control and the ands able to
Speaker 1: advigat a soft landing, that will you know, I think
Speaker 1: right now that consumer continues to be resilient and strong. Hey,
Speaker 1: tom one day. I want to ask you because there's
Speaker 1: a fair amount of stores just around Bloomberg headquarters in
Speaker 1: New York City that are still vacant. There used to
Speaker 1: be more. I was going to say, yeah, but the Republic,
Speaker 1: the containers, there's a lot of them that are gone.
Speaker 1: Talked to us about delinquency rates um that play into
Speaker 1: the retail sector CNBS loans. I'm thinking specifically, are we
Speaker 1: seeing any kind of fall up? You know, actually that's
Speaker 1: improved dramatically and you're really at very um you know,
Speaker 1: strong levels today. The level of delinquency has dropped it
Speaker 1: in the in the CMBs loan market, I think it's
Speaker 1: under seven percent today. In June number was approaching, so
Speaker 1: that that market has strength and considerably and quite frankly right,
Speaker 1: collections as an industry or are in the low nine
Speaker 1: percent I think nine eighty last number size and a
Speaker 1: few days ago, So I don't. I don't. Generally speaking,
Speaker 1: the inter streets are very strong footing because consumers are
Speaker 1: spending and they're they're going out to shop at stores
Speaker 1: and they're going out to shop online. I mean, consumer
Speaker 1: spending is strong. Now, you mentioned New York and obviously
Speaker 1: New York is a particularly you know, it's a unique market,
Speaker 1: and it is you know, it's significantly impacted by what's
Speaker 1: happening in the broader um you know, work environment and
Speaker 1: quite frankly the stresses that are people coming back into
Speaker 1: the coming back into the office. So it's that's particularly
Speaker 1: midtown that's a big driver of retail spence. So New
Speaker 1: York is unique relative to the rest of the country.
Speaker 1: A Tom thirty seconds Left weigh in on the power
Speaker 1: of Amazon Prime Day away from Amazon and how it
Speaker 1: has turned into a shopping day outside of Amazon to
Speaker 1: for for your your clients, your members, just really quickly. Yeah, yes,
Speaker 1: it's become an iconic shopping day. And so you you know,
Speaker 1: Target deal days and and a whole host of other
Speaker 1: retailers are having similar type of events, and so it's become,
Speaker 1: you know, in other iconic shopping day, just like Black
Speaker 1: Friday in other days in other parts of the year.
Speaker 1: It's more than one day, right, it's a couple of
Speaker 1: days or something. It's now an event. Carol, I have
Speaker 1: been I have been bombarded by offers. What are you
Speaker 1: going to buy? Things? I must have? What must have
Speaker 1: you have? What must you have? Look away, look Away,
Speaker 1: that's what I'm doing. I got enough stuff in my
Speaker 1: life right now. Tommygee, always a pleasure, President and CEO
Speaker 1: of I C s C, on the phone from l
Speaker 1: A