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Speaker 3: One person though not in Washington today, hasn't been for
Speaker 3: several days. In fact, is the President of the United States?
Speaker 3: Is Joe Biden is still at Camp David? Yeah, or
Speaker 3: maybe we should call it Camp Debate, doing debate prep
Speaker 3: ahead of Thursday.
Speaker 1: It's nice up there, you know, this time of year,
Speaker 1: we're going to see it. Even Josh Wingrove doesn't get
Speaker 1: the stay at camp David. That's like the one spot
Speaker 1: you go and you don't want the distractions. You don't
Speaker 1: want people around your desk. You're trying to focus. It's
Speaker 1: a different approach than of course, we've been hearing Donald
Speaker 1: Trump taking He's going to fundraisers and riffing with the staff,
Speaker 1: trying to come up with one liners and so forth.
Speaker 1: We'll find out which work. But it's interesting in the
Speaker 1: preamble here, Kaylee, we're seeing the Biden campaign try to
Speaker 1: knock down what they're calling cheap fakes. These are not
Speaker 1: deep fake videos, but allegedly altered in some way, edited
Speaker 1: in some way, and put together to make Joe Biden
Speaker 1: look like a very old man, too old to run
Speaker 1: for office. This is what Josh Wingrove is writing about
Speaker 1: here Bloomberg's White House correspondent at the table. Great to
Speaker 1: see you, sir. Hey, this is I'm sure something they
Speaker 1: love talking about.
Speaker 4: You guys, wouldn't deceptively edit me?
Speaker 1: Well, no, this is live, you know on Bloomberg. We
Speaker 1: just don't have the chance. Huh, cheap fakes. That's not bad.
Speaker 1: Did they come up with that?
Speaker 4: Yeah, so they you know, we've been seeing a lot
Speaker 4: of these. This, by the way, is part of the
Speaker 4: reason why their concerns on Capitol Hill about TikTok and
Speaker 4: you know what algorithms would feed what content regardless of
Speaker 4: which president is in office. They're worried about this because
Speaker 4: these videos are surfacing. They're being amplified the conservative media
Speaker 4: and the Trump campaign to you know, stoke concerns about
Speaker 4: the president's age. One in particular, from the G seven
Speaker 4: was edited deceptively to trim it so it looked more
Speaker 4: like Biden was wandering off, as opposed to gesturing two parachuters,
Speaker 4: which was the case. I was there, sawn there, so
Speaker 4: there there, that happened. That is, yeah, we were.
Speaker 1: It was a good para. I bet it was cool.
Speaker 1: No one talks about those guys.
Speaker 4: Yeah, they came in in like cute little Italian cars.
Speaker 1: You know. Anyone saying though, oh he's wandering off, or
Speaker 1: you saw this later on social media said wait a minute,
Speaker 1: that's not really happened.
Speaker 4: The initial unedited clip took off pretty quickly, and then
Speaker 4: the edited clip which made it look worse. But he was,
Speaker 4: I mean, he was gesturing to those people. So that's
Speaker 4: the issue here is they said they you know, Democrats say,
Speaker 4: yes he's old, he's eighty one. But like you know,
Speaker 4: there are often explanations, innocuous explanations for these videos. But
Speaker 4: still the videos are not helping. Biden campaign chair Jenna
Speaker 4: mally Dillon saying in a podcast yesterday to make your
Speaker 4: own blanking tiktoks to combat this, and calling on supporters
Speaker 4: to flood the zone. So the risk for Biden on
Speaker 4: Thursday is, of course, any moment, any pause, and he
Speaker 4: frees up any stumble, which certainly I've had, you know,
Speaker 4: on TV or radio or what have you, can be
Speaker 4: exacerbated to add fuel to this fire on the question
Speaker 4: of the age concerns. But they see another side to
Speaker 4: this coin I should know, and that is that Trump
Speaker 4: has been saying a lot of eyebrow raising things. Even
Speaker 4: if you've sort of priced in Trump being a little
Speaker 4: you know, on the front foot on some of these things,
Speaker 4: saying stuff that makes your eyebrows raise, Trump, you know,
Speaker 4: is saying different stuff than even he said in twenty
Speaker 4: twenty and twenty sixteen. And so the Biden people think
Speaker 4: that this is a double edged sword and that voters
Speaker 4: who are just tuning in will see some of the
Speaker 4: stuff Trump is saying and think, oh boy, you know,
Speaker 4: that is even different than what we've come to expect
Speaker 4: from Donald Trump. And so that is the framing for this.
Speaker 4: They're both in this race right now to set expectations.
Speaker 4: Trump has spent the last two years calling Joe Biden sleepy,
Speaker 4: Joe essentially saying that his brain is, you know, fading,
Speaker 4: and now he's going out of his way to compliment
Speaker 4: Joe Biden as a debater.
Speaker 1: It's wild.
Speaker 4: You should see this. So the Trump campaign send a
Speaker 4: statements saying what a great job Joe Biden did in
Speaker 4: twenty twelve against Paul Ryan. Yeah, so there's some expectations
Speaker 4: setting going on. I should note that that twenty twelve
Speaker 4: stuff feels like now at the time, you remember Barack
Speaker 4: Obama delivered a real stinker of a debate against Mitt Romney.
Speaker 4: Democrats were a little bit despondent about that, and it
Speaker 4: was Joe Biden who came out swinging against Paul Ryan,
Speaker 4: you know, a bunch of malarkey being the key takeaway
Speaker 4: quote from that. They really helped rejuvenate that and that
Speaker 4: is really I think part of the final point I
Speaker 4: want to make here is that this is the expectation
Speaker 4: setting is as much about, you know, making sure your
Speaker 4: own people are motivated to knock on doors, make phone calls, whatever,
Speaker 4: as it is about, you know, twisting the arm of
Speaker 4: some undecided voter to the extent that those still exists.
Speaker 3: Well, on the subject of expectation setting, it does seem that,
Speaker 3: at least for the Trump camp, part of that expectation
Speaker 3: setting has to do with with the rules of the debate,
Speaker 3: the format that they agreed to.
Speaker 5: The rules.
Speaker 3: It should make very clear the Trump team did agree
Speaker 3: to these rules. The CNN moderators, the MIC's getting cut
Speaker 3: off if you're speaking over time, the lack of a
Speaker 3: live audience, how does that change the nature of what's
Speaker 3: about to go down on Thursday.
Speaker 4: They are setting this up as a quote three on
Speaker 4: one because they want to be able to sort of
Speaker 4: say it was rigged. Sound familiar, So that's what we
Speaker 4: are expecting from it. They did agree to the rules,
Speaker 4: And there's sort of two schools have thought about why
Speaker 4: Biden's campaign sort of floated this in the first place.
Speaker 4: And you know, one is that a cynic might say
Speaker 4: that they didn't know whether Trump would say yes or not,
Speaker 4: right because Trump had been saying anytime, any place, you know,
Speaker 4: let's do this, Let's have a ton of debates. Trump
Speaker 4: is also floating the notion of whether they should both
Speaker 4: be drug tested, which you know, that is a different
Speaker 4: kettle of fish. So right now, this is the earliest
Speaker 4: debate we've had in the modern era by a long shot,
Speaker 4: by a couple of months. Biden wants this to be,
Speaker 4: you know, putting both of them on stage saying this
Speaker 4: is the choice. Notably absent from that or other third
Speaker 4: party candidates. Trump wants the same thing. He wants to
Speaker 4: hammer Biden on immigration. He wants a hammer Biden on inflation,
Speaker 4: which are concerns at poll after poll, including Bloomberg's own
Speaker 4: poll with Morning Call Salt shows our top issues for
Speaker 4: independent voters and voters more broadly. So you know, Trump
Speaker 4: wants a window to go at Biden. Biden wants a
Speaker 4: window to frame the choice as a binary choice for voters.
Speaker 4: It's their view that any vote not for Joe Biden
Speaker 4: is a vote for Donald Trump, whether you stay home
Speaker 4: or you pick someone else.
Speaker 3: All right, Josh Wee Grove, Bloomberg White House Correspondent, looking
Speaker 3: forward Thursday night, Thursday Night, your coverage indeed, well, of course,
Speaker 3: be having coverage of that for you on Bloomberg TV
Speaker 3: and Radio eight to eleven pm. We will be simulcasting
Speaker 3: CNN's presidential debate, and on the note of that debate,
Speaker 3: as we continue to look ahead, Let's assemble now our
Speaker 3: political panel. Rick Davis is with us Bloomberg Politics contributor
Speaker 3: and partner at Stone Coard Capital. Joan joined today by
Speaker 3: Joney Wartel, partner at ARC Initiatives and Democratic Strategists. Welcome
Speaker 3: to you both. Jennay I'd like to start with you
Speaker 3: is we were just discussing with Josh this whole idea
Speaker 3: that the Biden campaign the White House is already struggling
Speaker 3: immensely with these cheap fakes, with videos that circulate of
Speaker 3: the President looking old at eighty one, something that he
Speaker 3: cannot change. How much power does he have to change
Speaker 3: that narrative on Thursday night.
Speaker 6: So I think what's important to think about when it
Speaker 6: comes to this debate is that the president is going
Speaker 6: to deliver a clear and concise message to the American
Speaker 6: people about what's at stake in this election and why
Speaker 6: he is the right choice for another four year term
Speaker 6: and rightly contrast him with himself with Donald Trump. I
Speaker 6: think that what's important here is for him to show
Speaker 6: the energy and enthusiasm beg he has in his months
Speaker 6: on the campaign trail, traveling to battleground states all across America.
Speaker 6: So I think that that contrast and that kind of
Speaker 6: rebuttaled to the claim that he's too old to be
Speaker 6: president or other things that have been said, is for
Speaker 6: h him to show up on that debate stage Thursday
Speaker 6: ready to really put on display for the American people
Speaker 6: why he is the best choice to lead us into
Speaker 6: the future.
Speaker 1: Rick, a fascinating study here from Media Matters Today. I
Speaker 1: wanted to ask you about You can both take a
Speaker 1: swing at this if you want, because it challenges the
Speaker 1: idea of the left wing media bias when you consider
Speaker 1: specifically the issue of age, as Kaylee brings up here.
Speaker 1: They reviewed articles in five of the top US newspapers
Speaker 1: by circulation, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, New York Times,
Speaker 1: LA Times, USA Today. Rick, they found out of the one
Speaker 1: hundred and forty four articles focused on either of their
Speaker 1: ages or mental acuities, sixty seven percent focused only on
Speaker 1: Joe Biden's age or mental acuity. Only seven percent focused
Speaker 1: only on Donald Trump's. What do you make of that bias?
Speaker 7: You know, look, I think it's a bias. I guess
Speaker 7: by virtue of the data. But I mean, remarkably, Donald
Speaker 7: Trump doesn't appear very old. I mean, he puts on
Speaker 7: these shows, in these rallies, he stands up there.
Speaker 1: For over an hour on a monologue.
Speaker 7: He goes on the most crazy rants in the world,
Speaker 7: but nobody thinks of him as being old and feeble
Speaker 7: in the process of doing it. Crazy maybe, but not
Speaker 7: old and feeble. Joe Biden get up to announce an
Speaker 7: award for somebody, and you think the guy's going to
Speaker 7: teeter over at any minute. You literally hold your breath
Speaker 7: hoping that he gets through the event. And that's just
Speaker 7: because of his appearance and the way he talks, and
Speaker 7: sometimes he gets so quiet you think, you know, he's
Speaker 7: just sort of not got enough air in him to
Speaker 7: produce a sound. And yet at the same time, he
Speaker 7: produced a great performance at the State of the Union
Speaker 7: where everyone's like, Hey, if he could just do that
Speaker 7: every day, we wouldn't even be talking about age. Look,
Speaker 7: let's face it, these are two Jerry Theatrics running for president.
Speaker 7: Age is an issue.
Speaker 1: Whether they like it or not.
Speaker 7: American public have basically said they don't want either one
Speaker 7: of them because they're both too old and out of
Speaker 7: sync with where America is today, and so they got
Speaker 7: to put up with this kind of scrutiny because it
Speaker 7: is what it is. An American public is not happy
Speaker 7: with these choices. It's why seventy percent of the public
Speaker 7: and most of these polls say they'd rather have a
Speaker 7: different choice than both of them. So these are two
Speaker 7: guys standing on a stage Thursday night where the majority
Speaker 7: of the country would have rather have somebody else to
Speaker 7: debate on both sides of the equation. So they have
Speaker 7: a job to do, which is overperformed, to look energetic,
Speaker 7: to appear ready for the job, to think you can
Speaker 7: survive four more years of this kind of tough rule
Speaker 7: as a president of the United States, and I think
Speaker 7: voters deserve that they want to see that it's survivable.
Speaker 3: Janay, I'd love for you to weigh in on what
Speaker 3: Joe was just asking Rick, the idea that the aide
Speaker 3: question is just covered more when it comes to Biden
Speaker 3: than it is for Trump, who is just three years
Speaker 3: younger at seventy eight.
Speaker 6: Yes, well, we see much more of President Biden on
Speaker 6: in the media because he's on, you know, the world stage.
Speaker 6: He's both the commander in chief and leader of the
Speaker 6: free world and also a candidate for a second term.
Speaker 6: And so when you talk about what his schedule must
Speaker 6: be like or must have been like over the last
Speaker 6: couple of months, you're talking about somebody who is participating
Speaker 6: on the world stage, meeting with foreign leaders. You're talking
Speaker 6: about somebody who's traveling the battleground states across America to
Speaker 6: make sure that the message of this campaign is heard
Speaker 6: in communities all across the country. And so when you
Speaker 6: look at the rigor that President Biden is under, with
Speaker 6: the amount of work that he has to do to
Speaker 6: accomplish that list of things, yes, you would find that
Speaker 6: that anyone would be probably a little worn out. But
Speaker 6: what I think we've seen from President Biden, especially on
Speaker 6: the campaign trail, and I've been on the ground and
Speaker 6: I've seen him at rallies, I've seen him in small
Speaker 6: group settings, is a president who is energized, who's enthused,
Speaker 6: and who's ready to take on Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: On Thursday night, Rick, we started this hour talking with
Speaker 1: Josh Wingrove about something the Biden campaign is labeling cheap
Speaker 1: fakes as opposed to deep fakes. And it's this idea
Speaker 1: that they're seeing edited, maybe slightly altered, a video of
Speaker 1: Joe Biden looking old, and they're basically asking not only
Speaker 1: calling them out when they see them, but they're asking
Speaker 1: supporters to flood the zone with their own videos to
Speaker 1: make Donald Trump look crazy with some of the things
Speaker 1: that he says. You've run presidential campaigns, how would you
Speaker 1: handle this new element, this new reality of cheap fakes,
Speaker 1: as they call them.
Speaker 5: You know.
Speaker 7: Look, I mean campaigns boys had trouble with being taken
Speaker 7: out of contact or just a small quote within a
Speaker 7: broader context that makes it sound bad. And and I'm
Speaker 7: always torn because I think in this case, the more
Speaker 7: they draw attention to it, the more we talk about
Speaker 7: his age, and his age is the vulnerability, It's not Trump's.
Speaker 7: I think that the Biden campaign could do a better
Speaker 7: job of attacking Trump on his own gaffes in infirmaries.
Speaker 7: I mean, you know, there's not a single event goes
Speaker 7: by that Donald Trump doesn't go off on something about
Speaker 7: like how much water and a toilet bowl? I mean, like,
Speaker 7: does the American people really care? I think that these
Speaker 7: these campaigns could sharpen their their their attacks a lot more,
Speaker 7: and certainly the Biden campaign can. He basically left Donald
Speaker 7: Trump alone for six months, you know, when the campaign started.
Speaker 2: So uh yeah.
Speaker 7: But like I just I it always makes me cringe
Speaker 7: whenever the Biden campaign starts talking about how they're being
Speaker 7: treated unfairly because he's old, Because they're just reminding of
Speaker 7: voters that he's old, and it's not avoidable. There's nothing
Speaker 7: that the campaign can do to change that status.
Speaker 3: Jenay, I'd like to ask you about an essay that
Speaker 3: Hillary Clinton wrote in The New York Times today and
Speaker 3: which she points out that she is the only person
Speaker 3: to have debated both Donald Trump and Joe Biden. She
Speaker 3: writes in part that it is nearly impossible to focus
Speaker 3: on substance when mister Trump is involved. She goes on
Speaker 3: to say, it is a waste of time to try
Speaker 3: to refute Trump's arguments, Like in a normal debate, It's
Speaker 3: nearly impossible to identify what his arguments even are. He
Speaker 3: starts with nonsense and then digresses into blather. How does
Speaker 3: Joe Biden debate against that on Thursday?
Speaker 6: Well, you have to focus on what is Yeah, well,
Speaker 6: I think you have to focus on what is President
Speaker 6: Biden's job on that debate stage on Thursday. His job
Speaker 6: is to set up the contrast between him and former
Speaker 6: President Trump. His job is to tell the story of
Speaker 6: how his men registration has led this country out of
Speaker 6: four years of Donald Trump and helped to you know,
Speaker 6: recover the economy, help to lead us out of a
Speaker 6: health crisis. And so, while it is it is no
Speaker 6: secret that Donald Trump is likely going to come with
Speaker 6: a number of insults and jabs and and incoherent kind
Speaker 6: of tirades about any number of things. Who can who
Speaker 6: can know?
Speaker 5: Who can?
Speaker 6: Guess? I think it's important for the president to look
Speaker 6: presidential right, to present these arguments, to present the plan,
Speaker 6: to present his accomplishments and what he's done over the
Speaker 6: last four years. And I think that's really the only
Speaker 6: way to truly create contrast between him and former President Trump.
Speaker 6: A lot of that will frankly do play out itself.
Speaker 6: Right There's there's a lot that President Biden, by just
Speaker 6: standing up and being presidential, will create an immediate contrast
Speaker 6: with former President Trump. And I think that's that's his
Speaker 6: job on that stage on Thursday night, We're going.
Speaker 1: To see it and hear it right here Onloomberg TV
Speaker 1: and Radio Big thanks to our smart panel Janey Wartel
Speaker 1: come back and see us again in Rick davis smart
Speaker 1: take on the Fastest show in Politics. Charlie Cook is
Speaker 1: up next on Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 2: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty New York.
Speaker 3: Of course a state we're paying special attention to today,
Speaker 3: even from down here in Washington, as it is primary day,
Speaker 3: and there's one recent particular Joe Matthew that we are
Speaker 3: paying the most acute attention to. It's in the sixteenth
Speaker 3: Congressional district, in which the incumbent Democrat Jamal Bowman, a
Speaker 3: member of the Squad, could be the first incumbent to
Speaker 3: go down this primary season, up against a challenger in
Speaker 3: George Ladimir, who is painting a very significant contrast over
Speaker 3: the issue of Israel.
Speaker 1: That's right, it comes down to Israel. It seems. We
Speaker 1: talked to Emerson Polling yesterday they had Bowman down, the incumbent,
Speaker 1: down by seventeen points I think roughly three weeks ago
Speaker 1: the most recent numbers that we've been looking at here
Speaker 1: Kayley and would be the first member of the so
Speaker 1: called squad to lose reelection. So significant here as we
Speaker 1: consider the states in play, New York, Colorado, Utah. By
Speaker 1: the way, we're still waiting for the Bob Good race
Speaker 1: to settle in Virginia, and there's a question about whether
Speaker 1: This is really a time where we're seeing the centrists
Speaker 1: advance here and the extremes on both sides run into
Speaker 1: some headwinds. None other than Charlie Cook is with us
Speaker 1: to talk about it. Cannon balling into the pool today,
Speaker 1: the namesake of the Cook Political Report, Charlie gets. Great
Speaker 1: to have you back and good to see you on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg TV and radio. Is the moral of today's story
Speaker 1: going to be centrists?
Speaker 8: When well in New York, I think, I mean Bowman
Speaker 8: sounds like he's in huge trouble, and I think George
Speaker 8: or seems well positioned to take him out. But that's
Speaker 8: sort of the center up against the war, the hard
Speaker 8: ideological left, a lot of the primaries that we've been
Speaker 8: seeing in recent weeks and today on the Republican side,
Speaker 8: it's basically between the far right and the really really
Speaker 8: far right. You know, it's it's not the classic moderates
Speaker 8: or centrists and ideologues at all, so but it is.
Speaker 8: You took the words out of my mouth a minute
Speaker 8: ago when you said, none of the squad have ever
Speaker 8: you know, I have had any real problems before. This
Speaker 8: is the first one. But you know, you know, pulling
Speaker 8: a fire alarm in the Capitol Building. I mean, you know,
Speaker 8: when you look at it, it's like, wait a minute.
Speaker 8: That mean that kind of crystallizes behavior in the minds
Speaker 8: of voters, where you know, the members can can get
Speaker 8: away with a lot, but there are limits to it.
Speaker 8: And I suspect that Congressman Bowman may have hit his limit.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 3: The infamous fire alarm incident, of course, was during the
Speaker 3: government shutdown fight in the fall. He was trying to
Speaker 3: make it to a vote. He maintained that he thought
Speaker 3: he could exit through the door that ultimately triggered the
Speaker 3: fire alarm. It was quite a saga. So considering the
Speaker 3: potential flaw and that being one of this candidate, Charlie,
Speaker 3: should we be looking at this primary race in New
Speaker 3: York as idiosyncratic? Is something unique to these candidates and
Speaker 3: specific issues, or something that could be a tell on
Speaker 3: the division we are seeing in the Democratic Party over
Speaker 3: the Israel issues, something that could translate into November.
Speaker 8: Well, it's a little bit of a cow but frankly,
Speaker 8: we're not seeing it as quite this big a deal
Speaker 8: in other primaries yet. I mean, it may get there,
Speaker 8: but so far we haven't. And I think apac American
Speaker 8: Israel Public Affairs Committee. They're picking their shots very carefully
Speaker 8: and sort of rifle shot, going after specific members that
Speaker 8: they feel like they have a good shot of taking out,
Speaker 8: as opposed to being seen as a paper tiger going
Speaker 8: after lots of people and not succeeding in many or
Speaker 8: any of them. And so I think it's it's it
Speaker 8: shows some sharp targeting on the part of APAC to
Speaker 8: concentrate their fire on where they seem to have a
Speaker 8: really really good chance in not places where you know
Speaker 8: it'd be a long shot.
Speaker 1: I'm really glad you mentioned that Charlie Apax super Pac
Speaker 1: has done almost fifteen million dollars into ads against Congressman Bowman.
Speaker 1: That is an all time record, an all time record
Speaker 1: in American political history. With that said, maybe this is
Speaker 1: the new normal. But what would this race look like
Speaker 1: without Apax money.
Speaker 8: It would still probably be pretty close. But let's remind
Speaker 8: ourselves this is the New York City media market. You know,
Speaker 8: this is a dubuque, so if you're trying to get
Speaker 8: through to voters, it's going to be awfully offy off
Speaker 8: the price these Although granted, television isn't as big an
Speaker 8: advertising vehicle as it used to be. But oh yeah, no,
Speaker 8: they were they were playing. You know, Apex was playing
Speaker 8: for keeps here, no question of no question about it.
Speaker 8: But uh, and and you know for future, you know,
Speaker 8: a member is gonna think, jeez, I'm not sure how
Speaker 8: I'm going to vote, but I remember what happened to Bowman,
Speaker 8: and I sure wouldn't want to be Bowman did. And uh,
Speaker 8: you know that can affect behavior. You know, a lot
Speaker 8: of times members of Congress will look for the path
Speaker 8: of least resistance, and uh, this clearly was not it
Speaker 8: for Bowman.
Speaker 5: Charlie.
Speaker 3: Of course, it's not just New York that has primary today.
Speaker 3: There's also primaries in Colorado as well as in Utah
Speaker 3: and Utah specifically in the congressional races. In the Senate race,
Speaker 3: we're questioning the power of the Trump endorsement and the
Speaker 3: gubernatorial primary Trump didn't endorse, despite the incumbent governor being
Speaker 3: pretty critical of Trump. Trump hasn't stepped into uh to
Speaker 3: advocate for his challenger. How should we be thinking about
Speaker 3: the nature of the Trump endorsement in this election cycle
Speaker 3: and how it is different compared to say, twenty twenty
Speaker 3: two other cycles before that.
Speaker 8: Well, former President Trump was incredibly effective in forcing out
Speaker 8: the infidels, people that had voted for impeachment of him,
Speaker 8: and where they either jumped or got pushed out pretty effectively.
Speaker 8: But you know, looking at these primaries, I mean, we're
Speaker 8: talking about the difference between chocolate and Rocky Road ice
Speaker 8: cream here. I mean, you're gradations of two, you know,
Speaker 8: really conservative people, but one of them happened to have
Speaker 8: Trump's endorsement, but the other one can hardly be portrayed
Speaker 8: as anti Trump. So you know, I think there are
Speaker 8: limits now for I'd want to extrapolate some of these things.
Speaker 8: And the same thing in that Virginia race that we
Speaker 8: had last week that undetermined with Congressman Good, We're talking
Speaker 8: about some really conservative people here. This isn't you know,
Speaker 8: this isn't between the Mitt Romney center right and Trump.
Speaker 8: He's this is doing flavors of really conservative people.
Speaker 1: All right, you went there, Charlie. So what about Bob,
Speaker 1: Bob Good and John McGuire a race. Now, this election
Speaker 1: is a week old. It was last Tuesday in Virginia.
Speaker 1: This is the head of the Freedom Caucus, Bob Good,
Speaker 1: and we talked a lot about this. The strange bedfellows
Speaker 1: that came together to oppose Bob Good, Donald Trump, and
Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy swinging together along with establishment Republicans on Capitol Hill.
Speaker 1: It's still not called. In fact, Bob Good, who thought
Speaker 1: he was going to get a recount, looks like they
Speaker 1: will not be within the margin. And John McGuire's margin
Speaker 1: is actually he's picked up a couple of votes. He's
Speaker 1: at three hundred and seventy three. But Charlie, Bob Good
Speaker 1: says he's not done, and he said yesterday he will
Speaker 1: try to block certification of this vote because of irregularities
Speaker 1: in Lynchburg. Is this the beginning of the whole rigged
Speaker 1: conversation going into November?
Speaker 8: I kind of doubt it. The thing is, with elections
Speaker 8: like this, the big jumps in numbers typically come in
Speaker 8: the first twenty four to forty eight hours where somebody
Speaker 8: you know, made an arithmetic error totaling up the columns.
Speaker 8: You don't generally see big time switches shifts and votes,
Speaker 8: you know, this far, this far away from an election.
Speaker 8: So my guess is that Goods defeat is probably going
Speaker 8: to stand, and that you know, when one really conservative
Speaker 8: Republican is saying that another really conservative Republicans stole an election.
Speaker 8: That doesn't quite get the traction that some of the
Speaker 8: charges that that former President Trump has leveled over the years.
Speaker 8: And you know, although frankly, there's very very very little.
Speaker 8: I mean, this country, we have a lot of problems,
Speaker 8: and there are lots of things that government doesn't do well.
Speaker 8: We actually count votes pretty well and there's not a
Speaker 8: voter fraud to even laugh at anymore. But if people
Speaker 8: want to believe it, they'll believe it well.
Speaker 3: And certainly Donald Trump is still out there talking about
Speaker 3: it in the case of the twenty twenty election. And Charlie,
Speaker 3: on that note, we have been talking endlessly about Donald
Speaker 3: Trump and the debate that is upcoming of him versus
Speaker 3: Joe Biden on Thursday on CNN. The question is what
Speaker 3: does the debate actually change, if anything, How much potential
Speaker 3: does it have to change an election that we all
Speaker 3: know is likely to be very very close, in which
Speaker 3: many voters on either side for either candidate are already
Speaker 3: entrenched and have their minds made up.
Speaker 8: Well, debates typically don't make that much different. So, I mean,
Speaker 8: the typical, normal, well adjusted person does not spend an
Speaker 8: hour and a half out of their lives watching a
Speaker 8: political debate. Usually partisans that are watching to cheer on,
Speaker 8: you know, their favorite candidate or jeer the opposition, but
Speaker 8: occasionally they do. And one this is obviously a close race,
Speaker 8: but I would look for rather than and I was
Speaker 8: a high school debater, Rather than think about, okay, who
Speaker 8: was smoother, who performed better, I'd say who got a moment,
Speaker 8: Who had a moment, Something happened positive or negative that
Speaker 8: people will be talking about at work or in the
Speaker 8: grocery store aisle or over the back fence a day
Speaker 8: to three days ago, where it's gone viral, where it's covered,
Speaker 8: played over and over and over again. And we can
Speaker 8: all think of cases where that's happened. But most debates
Speaker 8: don't move the needle much at all. And the little
Speaker 8: eight or ten percent of people that are really, really,
Speaker 8: really undecided, they don't read, watch, listen to news. They're
Speaker 8: not Bloomberg watchers. You know, these people were kind of
Speaker 8: pretty much out and they only check in late if
Speaker 8: they check in at all. But these are they're not
Speaker 8: debate watchers.
Speaker 1: They really are everything.
Speaker 8: It's a coverage of the debate. It's more important than
Speaker 8: watching the live feed of the debate.
Speaker 3: Yeh, the spin and the clips that circulate on TikTok
Speaker 3: the next day. Charlie Cook of The Cook Political Report,
Speaker 3: thank you so much as always for joining us here
Speaker 3: on Balance of Power.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play
Speaker 2: and then Roudoto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on
Speaker 2: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live
Speaker 2: on YouTube.
Speaker 1: From Washington on this primary day. Happy Primary Day in
Speaker 1: New York included where Kaylee we started this hour talking
Speaker 1: about a very difficult challenge for New York Congressman Jamal Bowman,
Speaker 1: and it has everything to do with Israel, with Joe
Speaker 1: Biden's policies in Israel and outrage from progressives over this.
Speaker 1: He is expected to lose if you believe the polls.
Speaker 1: But there's bad news not only for Joe Biden on Israel.
Speaker 1: Potentially Benjamin Nett Yahoo today as well as the Israeli
Speaker 1: Supreme Court makes a landmark ruling here unanimous. I should
Speaker 1: add that the military must begin drafting ultra Orthodox men
Speaker 1: for compulsory service. This would end a decade's old system Kailey,
Speaker 1: and many think it could lead to the undoing of
Speaker 1: Benjamin Nettyaho's.
Speaker 3: Government, considering that the coalition government he has formed includes
Speaker 3: those on the far right ultra Orthodox, who had in
Speaker 3: part in joining this government, wanted to make sure that
Speaker 3: the non mandatory participation in the military service for those
Speaker 3: ultra Orthodox individuals would be enshrined into law, and here
Speaker 3: the Supreme Court is doing as a ruling that does
Speaker 3: the exact opposite. Of course, the Court's grounds for this
Speaker 3: is essentially the ongoing war, which is now almost nine
Speaker 3: months in, and they said, in the midst of a
Speaker 3: difficult war, the burden of inequality is more acute than ever.
Speaker 3: The question, Joe, is whether this also makes the burdens
Speaker 3: on Benjamin netanyahuo even more acute by extension.
Speaker 1: Well, that's absolutely right, and it's happening on what could
Speaker 1: be as we've discussed the eve of a new front
Speaker 1: opening to the north, as Israel considers waging war against Hesbolah.
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a lot to pay attention to, and we
Speaker 3: want to dig into this a little further, and welcome
Speaker 3: now Jennifer Kavanash. He's a senior fellow in the American
Speaker 3: State Craft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Speaker 3: Also an adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program at
Speaker 3: Georgetown University. Jennifer, welcome back to balance of power. If
Speaker 3: we could first begin with this decision from the Israeli
Speaker 3: Supreme Court. How much more difficult could this make Benjamin Netanyah,
Speaker 3: whose life domestically.
Speaker 9: Well, It would be a big policy change if it
Speaker 9: actually comes to pass and is implemented as the court
Speaker 9: laid out, Benjamin Natiah, who is very dependent on his
Speaker 9: coalition to stay in power, and this really could really
Speaker 9: split that coalition between those who are supportive of the
Speaker 9: ruling and those in the right wing that are opposed
Speaker 9: to it. And I think that it's not surprising at
Speaker 9: all that the court ruled this way, or that this
Speaker 9: issue is getting new scrutiny in light of the ongoing
Speaker 9: conflict and the burdens that that's placed on military families.
Speaker 9: It's also evidence, I think of the increasing social and
Speaker 9: political pressure inside of Israel writ large, which could put
Speaker 9: a bottom up pressure on net Yahoo's position.
Speaker 1: I want to hear you speak more to that. During
Speaker 1: arguments before the court, the government's lawyers argue that forcing
Speaker 1: ultra orthodox man to enlist would quote tear Israeli society
Speaker 1: apart unquote were they right?
Speaker 9: Well, that's a very difficult question. A lot of terms
Speaker 9: there that would need to be defined. But I think
Speaker 9: the bigger pressure that the country is facing right now
Speaker 9: is the burdens of the war are and the ongoing
Speaker 9: ramifications of the October seventh attack on Israel. Many families
Speaker 9: now have have lost service members and have service members
Speaker 9: serving in Gaza. And it's also important to note that
Speaker 9: there's also this other looming front up in the North
Speaker 9: and a potential additional set of call ups the reserves
Speaker 9: to fight against Hesblas. So this is not a short
Speaker 9: term issue, and I think that the court then has
Speaker 9: to weigh these decisions the the the the different pressures,
Speaker 9: the pressures from military families and the pressures from the
Speaker 9: orthobox community. I will say that it's not uncommon for
Speaker 9: there to be conscious conscientious objectors and personnel who are
Speaker 9: uncomfortable serving in military positions, even in the United States,
Speaker 9: but there are often ways to bridge that gap in
Speaker 9: terms of having them serve in support roles or administrative roles.
Speaker 9: There's lots of roles that need to be filled in
Speaker 9: war times. So it's it seems that this should be
Speaker 9: something that could be bridged without tearing apart the fabric
Speaker 9: of the community. As the government's lawyer stated.
Speaker 3: Well, Jennifer, let's expand upon what you just raised there,
Speaker 3: this notion or what seems like it could be a
Speaker 3: growing risk that Israel actually does open up a second
Speaker 3: front in this war on the border in the north
Speaker 3: with Lebanon and go after Hesbela directly. As you were
Speaker 3: just speaking there to already the burden that Israel is
Speaker 3: facing in regard to the first front of the war,
Speaker 3: the ongoing operations in Gaza, the toll that is taking
Speaker 3: on Israeli citizens, on families, on the Israeli economy. Certainly,
Speaker 3: can Israel afford to go against Hesbela directly at this moment,
Speaker 3: whether in actual economic sense or in personnel sense, Well.
Speaker 9: It'll be very difficult, and it would require the Israeli
Speaker 9: government and military to make some tough choices in terms
Speaker 9: of how to allocate resources and personnel. The operation in
Speaker 9: Gaza is likely to continue for some time the military
Speaker 9: and net Yah, who has indicated that the most intense
Speaker 9: phase is drawing down, but also continue to hold tight
Speaker 9: to a goal of eradicating Hamas, which is not a
Speaker 9: short term goal, it's a long term goal. So that
Speaker 9: suggests a long term presence in the Gaza strip and
Speaker 9: taking on Hezbla is going to be even more difficult
Speaker 9: so than Hamas because it is much better armed, much larger,
Speaker 9: and has many more resources. So that's going to be
Speaker 9: an even more costly and difficult conflict were it to occur.
Speaker 9: So the decision to do that would be very It
Speaker 9: would be difficult for Israel and requires significant sacrifices from
Speaker 9: the population and the government. The United States has indicated
Speaker 9: the Biden administration has indicated that it would be there
Speaker 9: to back the Israelis up if they chose to make
Speaker 9: this move, but that probably doesn't mean US troops on
Speaker 9: the ground. It probably means a continued military assistance.
Speaker 1: Jennifer Yov Golant, the Israel's Defense Minister, is in Washington
Speaker 1: right now a third day of meetings and talks with
Speaker 1: Biden administration officials, and today he's spending time with our
Speaker 1: Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin. The conversation is square directly
Speaker 1: at the potential for a war with Hesbelah and what
Speaker 1: the US hopes is the potential to avoid one. We
Speaker 1: know almost Hochstein is in the region to try to
Speaker 1: conduct talks preemptively getting into this with all of the
Speaker 1: stakeholders involved in the region. Can the US keep this
Speaker 1: from happening?
Speaker 9: I guess my question really is whether or not the
Speaker 9: US is willing to take the steps it would need
Speaker 9: to to stop it from happening. It's true that the
Speaker 9: United States is pushing diplomacy and that the yesterday Secretary
Speaker 9: Blinken urged the Israelis to avoid additional espalation, But at
Speaker 9: the same time, it's also been made pretty clear that
Speaker 9: the United States sees this as a decision for Israel
Speaker 9: to make, and have sent messages both to Is that
Speaker 9: it would be there to back them up and as
Speaker 9: well as to Hesbela to avoid escalation on its on
Speaker 9: its side, and the Biden administration has indicated that they
Speaker 9: will continue to flow forces into the region. The uss
Speaker 9: S rule Roosevelts is moving from the Pacific Theater into
Speaker 9: the Mediterranean, and there's some additional Marine Corps assets in
Speaker 9: the region as well. So I question whether or not
Speaker 9: the Biden administration has the willingness to actually leverage US
Speaker 9: influence to stop this from happening.
Speaker 3: So there's the question of what the US either attempting
Speaker 3: to make sure it doesn't happen, would be, or its
Speaker 3: response would be in the instance that Israel does pursue this,
Speaker 3: in Hebela pursues Israel back in return. As there's a
Speaker 3: risk assessment, certainly that has to happen on both sides.
Speaker 3: There also is the question of the backer of Hesbela
Speaker 3: in Iran. Jennifer, we were speaking last night with your
Speaker 3: colleague Garran David Miller, who suggests, and if you see
Speaker 3: the second front open, what actually opens is potentially the
Speaker 3: regional conflict the US has been trying to avoid all along,
Speaker 3: as it would draw the US in directly and Iran
Speaker 3: in directly. What would that really look like if it's
Speaker 3: not Iranian proxies that we are talking about, but potentially
Speaker 3: Iran itself.
Speaker 9: Well, that's obviously a very dangerous situation. I think all
Speaker 9: actors involved are hoping to avoid a regional war of
Speaker 9: that kind. It's important to recognize that any tiny step
Speaker 9: up the escalation ladder moves us closer to that point.
Speaker 9: Whether that's just in ISRAELI has a lot of conflict
Speaker 9: or Iran gets involved directly, and I think, you know,
Speaker 9: if we have US forces on the ground and Iranian
Speaker 9: forces on the ground, that starts to look like a
Speaker 9: very different conflict. It's important to recognize that the Iranians
Speaker 9: have significant military capabilities and are not all that far
Speaker 9: away from potential having a nuclear weapon, and that any
Speaker 9: conflict that involved the US and Iran in the region
Speaker 9: could easily spell into surrounding countries. So I would say,
Speaker 9: in terms of trying to imagine the scale of what
Speaker 9: it could be, I'm not saying that it would be,
Speaker 9: but it would be much worse than anything the US
Speaker 9: experienced during the US invasion of Iraq in two thousand
Speaker 9: and three. So really something to avoid on all parties
Speaker 9: we have.
Speaker 1: Well, maybe you can tell us the right question to
Speaker 1: ask in this case, Jennifer, But what would the US
Speaker 1: posture be in that scenario.
Speaker 9: Well, the Biden administration has been very cautious in terms
Speaker 9: of any sort of comitment of US forces on the ground.
Speaker 9: At the same time, they're already US troops stationed in
Speaker 9: the region that have come under attack. I think the
Speaker 9: US would do everything possible to avoid having its own
Speaker 9: forces fighting directly with Iranian forces, just as it's done
Speaker 9: everything possible in Europe to make sure that it's never
Speaker 9: US forces directly engaging Rustern soldiers. So I would imagine
Speaker 9: they would try to stick to military assistant as far
Speaker 9: as long as possible. At the same time, we know
Speaker 9: from just over the past few months that the US
Speaker 9: is willing to be pretty engaged in terms of protecting
Speaker 9: Israeli territory. So I would say the US would try
Speaker 9: to keep ground forces out of the picture for as
Speaker 9: long as possible, but would not roll out things like
Speaker 9: helping Israel protect its airspace and water space.
Speaker 1: Jennifer, it's great to have you. We'd love to have
Speaker 1: you back. Jennifer Kavanaugh, Senior Fellow in the American state
Speaker 1: Craft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ken
Speaker 2: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then
Speaker 2: roud Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also
Speaker 2: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 1: It's only which I guess is good news if you're
Speaker 1: preparing for a debate that could decide the election on
Speaker 1: Thursday night. We've got a lot to talk about today
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and on YouTube, where
Speaker 1: you can find us right now. Search Bloomberg Global News
Speaker 1: to find our live feed and we'll bring you right
Speaker 1: here in the studio with a lot to talk about
Speaker 1: these next two hours. We've heard so much about the
Speaker 1: preparations of the candidates. Joe Biden's locked down right now
Speaker 1: at Camp David. Must be beautiful up there, by the way.
Speaker 1: It's a gorgeous day in the nation's capital, away from
Speaker 1: the reporters, away from the cameras, away from the briefing room,
Speaker 1: away from the distractions in the bubble at the White House.
Speaker 1: And it does look like he's going to be going
Speaker 1: straight from Camp David to the debate in Atlanta on Thursday.
Speaker 1: Donald Trump made time as riffin and holding fundraisers this week,
Speaker 1: not doing the traditional prep as you keep hearing. But
Speaker 1: now that we've established that, I point you to the
Speaker 1: cocoon of horror. Now, if you grow up around Boston,
Speaker 1: if you live in New England, you know who I'm
Speaker 1: talking about. That is a phrase coined by John Keller,
Speaker 1: the dean of political journalists in New England who's moderated
Speaker 1: more debates than probably all of us have ever seen,
Speaker 1: and he begins each of them by warning the candidates
Speaker 1: that if they do not follow the rules, they will
Speaker 1: end up in the cocoon of horror. He says this
Speaker 1: to senators, governors, and it might need to be said
Speaker 1: to a couple of presidents, a current one and a
Speaker 1: former one. On Thursday. We're at the point now where
Speaker 1: the mics have to be caught off because the rules
Speaker 1: kind of don't matter. So we thought we would talk
Speaker 1: to the uber moderator today about a couple of things,
Speaker 1: beginning with this debate on Thursday night. John Keller is
Speaker 1: the political analyst at WBZ TV and Radio in Boston.
Speaker 1: He's also writing for Boston Magazine and a longtime colleague
Speaker 1: of mine, John, I just don't want to end up
Speaker 1: in the cocoon of horror. Welcome to Bloomberg Radio. Welcome back.
Speaker 1: It's good to see you. I wonder what's going through
Speaker 1: your mind now as you're preparing to moderate a debate
Speaker 1: if you're Jake Tapper, a Dana Bash, knowing that the
Speaker 1: Trump machine is already attacking you and trying to damage
Speaker 1: your credibility ahead of a forum that could be wild West.
Speaker 1: How does a moderator prepare for a debate where rules
Speaker 1: don't seem to matter.
Speaker 10: By drinking heavily? No, I'm kidding about that that. They
Speaker 10: should probably save that for afterward. But Joe, first of all,
Speaker 10: thank you for having me in a real quick correction
Speaker 10: credit where it's due. I borrowed the phrase cocoon of
Speaker 10: horror from Peter McNeely, a club boxer in the Boston
Speaker 10: area who was the first victim of Mike Tyson.
Speaker 5: After he came out of prison.
Speaker 10: McNeely vowed that Tyson would enter his cocoon of horror,
Speaker 10: and of course, as you may recall, he was flat
Speaker 10: on his back within thirty seconds.
Speaker 5: So just to.
Speaker 10: Correct, Wow, okay, look, I mean, they've got the mute
Speaker 10: button at CNN ready to go. I think they're going
Speaker 10: to have to use it. It'll be interesting to see how
Speaker 10: much muted background noise coming from I think you know
Speaker 10: what side it's going to be coming from. How much
Speaker 10: the audience will be able to hear through Biden's mike
Speaker 10: and the moderator's mike. That'll be an interesting element of this.
Speaker 10: But look, if you're a moderator, first of all, you
Speaker 10: have to keep in mind who this debate is about.
Speaker 10: It's not about you, the moderator and your smart questions.
Speaker 10: It's not about really about the candidates. It's about the voters.
Speaker 10: Are they going to have an opportunity if they pay
Speaker 10: attention to emerge better informed about the momentous choice they
Speaker 10: have to make? Then they were going in so in
Speaker 10: order to do that, particularly given these two, the baseline
Speaker 10: is to try to impose order.
Speaker 5: And so it wouldn't surprise.
Speaker 10: Me at all to hear Tapper and or Dana Bash,
Speaker 10: if not screaming, then yelling at Donald Trump early on
Speaker 10: to clam up if he tries to shout over Biden,
Speaker 10: as I suspect he's probably going to try to do.
Speaker 10: If they can threaten him or you know, show him
Speaker 10: what the cocoon of horror in this instance looks like,
Speaker 10: they might be able to rain him in.
Speaker 5: It worked four years ago.
Speaker 10: You may recall in that it wasn't so much the
Speaker 10: moderators that rained in Trump. It was the bad reviews
Speaker 10: from that first dyspeptic, out of control debate performance. His
Speaker 10: own people, I think said to him you've got to
Speaker 10: tone it down for the second debate, and he did, right.
Speaker 1: I want to know where you are on live fact checking,
Speaker 1: because this has become part of our reality, John, and
Speaker 1: it's got its limits, as we saw in the town
Speaker 1: hall with Don Donald Trump on this same network on CNN,
Speaker 1: and they were excoriated. In fact, the guy who ran
Speaker 1: the network was shown the door after this. So is
Speaker 1: it really incumbent upon the moderator?
Speaker 2: Now?
Speaker 1: Is this the modern interpretation of the job where they
Speaker 1: have to fact check live every answer they get, as
Speaker 1: opposed to say post show analysis or just letting voters
Speaker 1: do their own homework.
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean, look, they are honest differences of opinion
Speaker 10: on that within the world of debate moderators. My view
Speaker 10: is that that's not my job. You know, if in
Speaker 10: one of the candidates says something false about me or
Speaker 10: about my network, I might correct them live. But I
Speaker 10: believe that if Joe Biden or Donald Trump says something
Speaker 10: that's probably false, it's up to the other candidate to
Speaker 10: correct them. That is part of the information that is
Speaker 10: imparted by a debate is this person who wants to
Speaker 10: wield power over my life, someone who's well versed in
Speaker 10: the facts, courageous and aggressive enough to correct misstatements of
Speaker 10: fact when they occur on the spot. Are they quick
Speaker 10: enough to do so?
Speaker 5: So?
Speaker 10: No, I don't think the moderators should fact check live.
Speaker 5: I think that's up to the other candidate.
Speaker 10: And you mentioned the responsibility of the viewer at home,
Speaker 10: and I think that's an under remark upon part of
Speaker 10: these debates. You know, are you prepared to walk into
Speaker 10: a bakery and be sold a rotten coffee roll without
Speaker 10: looking it over first, maybe asking is this thrash?
Speaker 5: It looks a little green around the edges. I don't
Speaker 5: think so.
Speaker 10: Why would you accept political rhetoric that's also rotten?
Speaker 1: Is this the new precedent? Mike's caught off in a
Speaker 1: debate like this and networks running their own show. I
Speaker 1: have to call this thing to see and n debate,
Speaker 1: I'm told in every reference, John, because the Commission isn't
Speaker 1: running these now.
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think it might be, Joe. I mean, we'll
Speaker 10: see how it goes. I'm glad that they did away
Speaker 10: with the live audience. I've always felt live audiences are
Speaker 10: completely superfluous to a televised debate and just at best
Speaker 10: are an unnecessary distraction.
Speaker 5: We'll see how well the MIC's work.
Speaker 10: To remember, they had it in the Second debate four
Speaker 10: years ago and it didn't seem to be needed very
Speaker 10: much because Trump cleaned up his act a little bit.
Speaker 10: So yeah, certainly, disposing of the committee overseeing the debates,
Speaker 10: it seems to have left the American public dry eyed.
Speaker 10: I don't hear much upset over that. We'll see how
Speaker 10: it goes. But I think people deserve a better product
Speaker 10: than they've gotten at times in the past. And I also,
Speaker 10: you know, two moderators, from my money, is one moderator
Speaker 10: too many. But at least they don't have a whole
Speaker 10: panel of reporters preen ng and dowing up unnecessary time.
Speaker 5: That I believe is also an improvement show.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, we won't hold our breath for the National
Speaker 1: Media Consortium to the next debate. Here John Keller with
Speaker 1: us on Ballots of Power here on Bloomberg. The economy
Speaker 1: is going to be a big issue in this debate, John,
Speaker 1: and I don't suspect it's going to be terribly well informed.
Speaker 1: And when we start talking about the specifics of what's
Speaker 1: driving inflation, you start talking about monetary policy, real estate
Speaker 1: is something that I'd like to talk to you about here,
Speaker 1: because we're going to go from the cocoon of horror
Speaker 1: with John Keller to the urban doom loop. You're writing
Speaker 1: about the commercial real estate collapse of the twenty twenties.
Speaker 1: It's how you put it. In a new piece in
Speaker 1: Boston Magazine. The headline is Boston's economy doomed. And we
Speaker 1: can extrapolate this to look at cities around the country.
Speaker 1: But the fact is, and I was fascinated to learn
Speaker 1: this from John's reporting, nowhere is this collapse more acute
Speaker 1: than in Boston. MSCI finds property sale prices in the
Speaker 1: Central Business District cratered in the fourth quarter by more
Speaker 1: than thirty percent year over year. That declines steeper than
Speaker 1: any other city that MSCI tracked. John, you can speak
Speaker 1: to what's happened in Boston, but it's happening all over
Speaker 1: the country. This is the post COVID world we live in.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 5: It is.
Speaker 10: Unfortunately, cities like San Francisco in New York and the
Speaker 10: problems with vacant office space and workers not returning once
Speaker 10: the pandemic quote unquote ended has been a big story.
Speaker 10: But Boston has been particularly bad. The numbers don't lie, Joe.
Speaker 10: There's a variety of reasons for that. There was a
Speaker 10: bill a commercial office space boom in Boston over the
Speaker 10: last decade or so, and it's a city with notoriously
Speaker 10: bad commuter traffic and poor public transit. So the first
Speaker 10: opportunity most office workers got to ditch their commute. Anyone
Speaker 10: who could work from home made it clear they preferred
Speaker 10: to do so. Compounding the situation in Boston is that Boston,
Speaker 10: more than any other major city in the country, had
Speaker 10: relied heavily on commercial real estate tax revenues for its
Speaker 10: annual budget. This worked out really well for a series
Speaker 10: of politicians over the years, who, as a result, could
Speaker 10: keep the residential rates very low and accept the plaudits
Speaker 10: of the residents of the city. But because they have
Speaker 10: leaned so heavily, they get a higher percentage of their
Speaker 10: revenues from commercial real estate taxes than any other city.
Speaker 10: The crash promises to devastate the city's revenue flow in
Speaker 10: the coming years.
Speaker 5: So what to do about it? Well? The mayor Mayor.
Speaker 10: Michelle wou has suggested that she wants the authority from
Speaker 10: state legends to jack up the commercial tax rate to
Speaker 10: make up for any shortfall.
Speaker 5: Well, this has the commercial property.
Speaker 10: Owners just orbiting the earth with fury. And the fact is, surprise, surprise,
Speaker 10: capital is mobile. And you're seeing already an exodus of
Speaker 10: a commercial real estate investment of from downtown Boston, where
Speaker 10: it's been booming in recent years, to the near suburbs,
Speaker 10: or to other states, and.
Speaker 5: That keeps up Boston's in big trouble.
Speaker 1: Joe, Wow, John, this is a really important story, and
Speaker 1: I haven't heard it frame this way until now, almost
Speaker 1: as if she was listening and reading your column that
Speaker 1: we're talking about.
Speaker 5: Here.
Speaker 1: I see in the Globe today the Boston Globe Governor
Speaker 1: Mara Healy announcing the administration they're providing fifteen million dollars
Speaker 1: to extend a city program that converts under used office
Speaker 1: buildings to house John, I've got less than a minute left.
Speaker 1: Is that the.
Speaker 10: Answer, Well, it might be part of the solution. There
Speaker 10: are problems with that, though. Converting office towers buildings that
Speaker 10: were designed for office use to residential is in general
Speaker 10: a hugely expensive proposition, and Boston lags behind other cities
Speaker 10: like San Francisco in providing what appeared to be the
Speaker 10: necessary incentives to developers to go in and do that.
Speaker 10: There's just a handful of projects under way here, so
Speaker 10: they're going to have to get more creative than that.
Speaker 10: There's a lot of ideas floating around, but the political
Speaker 10: class around here in Boston at least, is lagging well
Speaker 10: behind this new landscape of economic reality.
Speaker 1: Joe, they call him Keller at Large up in New England,
Speaker 1: John Keller. Great to have you find that story in
Speaker 1: Boston Magazine. You'll learn a lot smart from a dear friend,
Speaker 1: John Keller. Thanks for being with us on Bloomberg. Thanks
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