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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo, CarPlay and

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Speaker 2: then Roudoo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand

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Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: One person though not in Washington today, hasn't been for

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Speaker 3: several days. In fact, is the President of the United States?

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Speaker 3: Is Joe Biden is still at Camp David? Yeah, or

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Speaker 3: maybe we should call it Camp Debate, doing debate prep

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Speaker 3: ahead of Thursday.

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Speaker 1: It's nice up there, you know, this time of year,

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Speaker 1: we're going to see it. Even Josh Wingrove doesn't get

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Speaker 1: the stay at camp David. That's like the one spot

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Speaker 1: you go and you don't want the distractions. You don't

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Speaker 1: want people around your desk. You're trying to focus. It's

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Speaker 1: a different approach than of course, we've been hearing Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump taking He's going to fundraisers and riffing with the staff,

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Speaker 1: trying to come up with one liners and so forth.

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Speaker 1: We'll find out which work. But it's interesting in the

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Speaker 1: preamble here, Kaylee, we're seeing the Biden campaign try to

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Speaker 1: knock down what they're calling cheap fakes. These are not

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Speaker 1: deep fake videos, but allegedly altered in some way, edited

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Speaker 1: in some way, and put together to make Joe Biden

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Speaker 1: look like a very old man, too old to run

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Speaker 1: for office. This is what Josh Wingrove is writing about

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Speaker 1: here Bloomberg's White House correspondent at the table. Great to

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Speaker 1: see you, sir. Hey, this is I'm sure something they

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Speaker 1: love talking about.

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Speaker 4: You guys, wouldn't deceptively edit me?

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Speaker 1: Well, no, this is live, you know on Bloomberg. We

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Speaker 1: just don't have the chance. Huh, cheap fakes. That's not bad.

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Speaker 1: Did they come up with that?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so they you know, we've been seeing a lot

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Speaker 4: of these. This, by the way, is part of the

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Speaker 4: reason why their concerns on Capitol Hill about TikTok and

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Speaker 4: you know what algorithms would feed what content regardless of

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Speaker 4: which president is in office. They're worried about this because

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Speaker 4: these videos are surfacing. They're being amplified the conservative media

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Speaker 4: and the Trump campaign to you know, stoke concerns about

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Speaker 4: the president's age. One in particular, from the G seven

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Speaker 4: was edited deceptively to trim it so it looked more

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Speaker 4: like Biden was wandering off, as opposed to gesturing two parachuters,

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Speaker 4: which was the case. I was there, sawn there, so

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Speaker 4: there there, that happened. That is, yeah, we were.

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Speaker 1: It was a good para. I bet it was cool.

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Speaker 1: No one talks about those guys.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, they came in in like cute little Italian cars.

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Speaker 1: You know. Anyone saying though, oh he's wandering off, or

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Speaker 1: you saw this later on social media said wait a minute,

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Speaker 1: that's not really happened.

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Speaker 4: The initial unedited clip took off pretty quickly, and then

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Speaker 4: the edited clip which made it look worse. But he was,

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Speaker 4: I mean, he was gesturing to those people. So that's

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Speaker 4: the issue here is they said they you know, Democrats say,

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Speaker 4: yes he's old, he's eighty one. But like you know,

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Speaker 4: there are often explanations, innocuous explanations for these videos. But

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Speaker 4: still the videos are not helping. Biden campaign chair Jenna

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Speaker 4: mally Dillon saying in a podcast yesterday to make your

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Speaker 4: own blanking tiktoks to combat this, and calling on supporters

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Speaker 4: to flood the zone. So the risk for Biden on

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Speaker 4: Thursday is, of course, any moment, any pause, and he

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Speaker 4: frees up any stumble, which certainly I've had, you know,

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Speaker 4: on TV or radio or what have you, can be

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Speaker 4: exacerbated to add fuel to this fire on the question

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Speaker 4: of the age concerns. But they see another side to

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Speaker 4: this coin I should know, and that is that Trump

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Speaker 4: has been saying a lot of eyebrow raising things. Even

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Speaker 4: if you've sort of priced in Trump being a little

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Speaker 4: you know, on the front foot on some of these things,

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Speaker 4: saying stuff that makes your eyebrows raise, Trump, you know,

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Speaker 4: is saying different stuff than even he said in twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty and twenty sixteen. And so the Biden people think

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Speaker 4: that this is a double edged sword and that voters

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Speaker 4: who are just tuning in will see some of the

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Speaker 4: stuff Trump is saying and think, oh boy, you know,

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Speaker 4: that is even different than what we've come to expect

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Speaker 4: from Donald Trump. And so that is the framing for this.

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Speaker 4: They're both in this race right now to set expectations.

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Speaker 4: Trump has spent the last two years calling Joe Biden sleepy,

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Speaker 4: Joe essentially saying that his brain is, you know, fading,

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Speaker 4: and now he's going out of his way to compliment

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Speaker 4: Joe Biden as a debater.

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Speaker 1: It's wild.

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Speaker 4: You should see this. So the Trump campaign send a

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Speaker 4: statements saying what a great job Joe Biden did in

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Speaker 4: twenty twelve against Paul Ryan. Yeah, so there's some expectations

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Speaker 4: setting going on. I should note that that twenty twelve

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Speaker 4: stuff feels like now at the time, you remember Barack

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Speaker 4: Obama delivered a real stinker of a debate against Mitt Romney.

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Speaker 4: Democrats were a little bit despondent about that, and it

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Speaker 4: was Joe Biden who came out swinging against Paul Ryan,

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Speaker 4: you know, a bunch of malarkey being the key takeaway

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Speaker 4: quote from that. They really helped rejuvenate that and that

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Speaker 4: is really I think part of the final point I

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Speaker 4: want to make here is that this is the expectation

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Speaker 4: setting is as much about, you know, making sure your

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Speaker 4: own people are motivated to knock on doors, make phone calls, whatever,

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Speaker 4: as it is about, you know, twisting the arm of

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Speaker 4: some undecided voter to the extent that those still exists.

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Speaker 3: Well, on the subject of expectation setting, it does seem that,

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Speaker 3: at least for the Trump camp, part of that expectation

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Speaker 3: setting has to do with with the rules of the debate,

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Speaker 3: the format that they agreed to.

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Speaker 5: The rules.

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Speaker 3: It should make very clear the Trump team did agree

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Speaker 3: to these rules. The CNN moderators, the MIC's getting cut

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Speaker 3: off if you're speaking over time, the lack of a

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Speaker 3: live audience, how does that change the nature of what's

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Speaker 3: about to go down on Thursday.

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Speaker 4: They are setting this up as a quote three on

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Speaker 4: one because they want to be able to sort of

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Speaker 4: say it was rigged. Sound familiar, So that's what we

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Speaker 4: are expecting from it. They did agree to the rules,

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Speaker 4: And there's sort of two schools have thought about why

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Speaker 4: Biden's campaign sort of floated this in the first place.

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Speaker 4: And you know, one is that a cynic might say

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Speaker 4: that they didn't know whether Trump would say yes or not,

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Speaker 4: right because Trump had been saying anytime, any place, you know,

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Speaker 4: let's do this, Let's have a ton of debates. Trump

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Speaker 4: is also floating the notion of whether they should both

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Speaker 4: be drug tested, which you know, that is a different

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Speaker 4: kettle of fish. So right now, this is the earliest

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Speaker 4: debate we've had in the modern era by a long shot,

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Speaker 4: by a couple of months. Biden wants this to be,

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Speaker 4: you know, putting both of them on stage saying this

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Speaker 4: is the choice. Notably absent from that or other third

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Speaker 4: party candidates. Trump wants the same thing. He wants to

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Speaker 4: hammer Biden on immigration. He wants a hammer Biden on inflation,

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Speaker 4: which are concerns at poll after poll, including Bloomberg's own

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Speaker 4: poll with Morning Call Salt shows our top issues for

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Speaker 4: independent voters and voters more broadly. So you know, Trump

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Speaker 4: wants a window to go at Biden. Biden wants a

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Speaker 4: window to frame the choice as a binary choice for voters.

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Speaker 4: It's their view that any vote not for Joe Biden

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Speaker 4: is a vote for Donald Trump, whether you stay home

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Speaker 4: or you pick someone else.

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Speaker 3: All right, Josh Wee Grove, Bloomberg White House Correspondent, looking

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Speaker 3: forward Thursday night, Thursday Night, your coverage indeed, well, of course,

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Speaker 3: be having coverage of that for you on Bloomberg TV

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Speaker 3: and Radio eight to eleven pm. We will be simulcasting

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Speaker 3: CNN's presidential debate, and on the note of that debate,

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Speaker 3: as we continue to look ahead, Let's assemble now our

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Speaker 3: political panel. Rick Davis is with us Bloomberg Politics contributor

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Speaker 3: and partner at Stone Coard Capital. Joan joined today by

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Speaker 3: Joney Wartel, partner at ARC Initiatives and Democratic Strategists. Welcome

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Speaker 3: to you both. Jennay I'd like to start with you

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Speaker 3: is we were just discussing with Josh this whole idea

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Speaker 3: that the Biden campaign the White House is already struggling

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Speaker 3: immensely with these cheap fakes, with videos that circulate of

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Speaker 3: the President looking old at eighty one, something that he

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Speaker 3: cannot change. How much power does he have to change

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Speaker 3: that narrative on Thursday night.

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Speaker 6: So I think what's important to think about when it

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Speaker 6: comes to this debate is that the president is going

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Speaker 6: to deliver a clear and concise message to the American

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Speaker 6: people about what's at stake in this election and why

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Speaker 6: he is the right choice for another four year term

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Speaker 6: and rightly contrast him with himself with Donald Trump. I

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Speaker 6: think that what's important here is for him to show

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Speaker 6: the energy and enthusiasm beg he has in his months

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Speaker 6: on the campaign trail, traveling to battleground states all across America.

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Speaker 6: So I think that that contrast and that kind of

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Speaker 6: rebuttaled to the claim that he's too old to be

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Speaker 6: president or other things that have been said, is for

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Speaker 6: h him to show up on that debate stage Thursday

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Speaker 6: ready to really put on display for the American people

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Speaker 6: why he is the best choice to lead us into

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Speaker 6: the future.

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Speaker 1: Rick, a fascinating study here from Media Matters Today. I

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Speaker 1: wanted to ask you about You can both take a

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Speaker 1: swing at this if you want, because it challenges the

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Speaker 1: idea of the left wing media bias when you consider

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Speaker 1: specifically the issue of age, as Kaylee brings up here.

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Speaker 1: They reviewed articles in five of the top US newspapers

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Speaker 1: by circulation, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, New York Times,

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Speaker 1: LA Times, USA Today. Rick, they found out of the one

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Speaker 1: hundred and forty four articles focused on either of their

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Speaker 1: ages or mental acuities, sixty seven percent focused only on

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden's age or mental acuity. Only seven percent focused

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Speaker 1: only on Donald Trump's. What do you make of that bias?

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Speaker 7: You know, look, I think it's a bias. I guess

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Speaker 7: by virtue of the data. But I mean, remarkably, Donald

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Speaker 7: Trump doesn't appear very old. I mean, he puts on

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Speaker 7: these shows, in these rallies, he stands up there.

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Speaker 1: For over an hour on a monologue.

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Speaker 7: He goes on the most crazy rants in the world,

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Speaker 7: but nobody thinks of him as being old and feeble

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Speaker 7: in the process of doing it. Crazy maybe, but not

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Speaker 7: old and feeble. Joe Biden get up to announce an

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Speaker 7: award for somebody, and you think the guy's going to

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Speaker 7: teeter over at any minute. You literally hold your breath

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Speaker 7: hoping that he gets through the event. And that's just

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Speaker 7: because of his appearance and the way he talks, and

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Speaker 7: sometimes he gets so quiet you think, you know, he's

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Speaker 7: just sort of not got enough air in him to

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Speaker 7: produce a sound. And yet at the same time, he

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Speaker 7: produced a great performance at the State of the Union

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Speaker 7: where everyone's like, Hey, if he could just do that

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Speaker 7: every day, we wouldn't even be talking about age. Look,

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Speaker 7: let's face it, these are two Jerry Theatrics running for president.

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Speaker 7: Age is an issue.

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Speaker 1: Whether they like it or not.

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Speaker 7: American public have basically said they don't want either one

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Speaker 7: of them because they're both too old and out of

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Speaker 7: sync with where America is today, and so they got

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Speaker 7: to put up with this kind of scrutiny because it

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Speaker 7: is what it is. An American public is not happy

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Speaker 7: with these choices. It's why seventy percent of the public

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Speaker 7: and most of these polls say they'd rather have a

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Speaker 7: different choice than both of them. So these are two

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Speaker 7: guys standing on a stage Thursday night where the majority

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Speaker 7: of the country would have rather have somebody else to

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Speaker 7: debate on both sides of the equation. So they have

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Speaker 7: a job to do, which is overperformed, to look energetic,

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Speaker 7: to appear ready for the job, to think you can

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Speaker 7: survive four more years of this kind of tough rule

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Speaker 7: as a president of the United States, and I think

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Speaker 7: voters deserve that they want to see that it's survivable.

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Speaker 3: Janay, I'd love for you to weigh in on what

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Speaker 3: Joe was just asking Rick, the idea that the aide

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Speaker 3: question is just covered more when it comes to Biden

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Speaker 3: than it is for Trump, who is just three years

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Speaker 3: younger at seventy eight.

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Speaker 6: Yes, well, we see much more of President Biden on

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Speaker 6: in the media because he's on, you know, the world stage.

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Speaker 6: He's both the commander in chief and leader of the

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Speaker 6: free world and also a candidate for a second term.

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Speaker 6: And so when you talk about what his schedule must

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Speaker 6: be like or must have been like over the last

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Speaker 6: couple of months, you're talking about somebody who is participating

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Speaker 6: on the world stage, meeting with foreign leaders. You're talking

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Speaker 6: about somebody who's traveling the battleground states across America to

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Speaker 6: make sure that the message of this campaign is heard

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Speaker 6: in communities all across the country. And so when you

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Speaker 6: look at the rigor that President Biden is under, with

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Speaker 6: the amount of work that he has to do to

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Speaker 6: accomplish that list of things, yes, you would find that

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Speaker 6: that anyone would be probably a little worn out. But

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Speaker 6: what I think we've seen from President Biden, especially on

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Speaker 6: the campaign trail, and I've been on the ground and

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Speaker 6: I've seen him at rallies, I've seen him in small

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Speaker 6: group settings, is a president who is energized, who's enthused,

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Speaker 6: and who's ready to take on Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: On Thursday night, Rick, we started this hour talking with

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Speaker 1: Josh Wingrove about something the Biden campaign is labeling cheap

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Speaker 1: fakes as opposed to deep fakes. And it's this idea

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Speaker 1: that they're seeing edited, maybe slightly altered, a video of

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden looking old, and they're basically asking not only

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Speaker 1: calling them out when they see them, but they're asking

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Speaker 1: supporters to flood the zone with their own videos to

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Speaker 1: make Donald Trump look crazy with some of the things

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Speaker 1: that he says. You've run presidential campaigns, how would you

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Speaker 1: handle this new element, this new reality of cheap fakes,

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Speaker 1: as they call them.

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Speaker 5: You know.

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Speaker 7: Look, I mean campaigns boys had trouble with being taken

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Speaker 7: out of contact or just a small quote within a

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Speaker 7: broader context that makes it sound bad. And and I'm

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Speaker 7: always torn because I think in this case, the more

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Speaker 7: they draw attention to it, the more we talk about

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Speaker 7: his age, and his age is the vulnerability, It's not Trump's.

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Speaker 7: I think that the Biden campaign could do a better

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Speaker 7: job of attacking Trump on his own gaffes in infirmaries.

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Speaker 7: I mean, you know, there's not a single event goes

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Speaker 7: by that Donald Trump doesn't go off on something about

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Speaker 7: like how much water and a toilet bowl? I mean, like,

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Speaker 7: does the American people really care? I think that these

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Speaker 7: these campaigns could sharpen their their their attacks a lot more,

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Speaker 7: and certainly the Biden campaign can. He basically left Donald

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Speaker 7: Trump alone for six months, you know, when the campaign started.

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Speaker 2: So uh yeah.

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Speaker 7: But like I just I it always makes me cringe

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Speaker 7: whenever the Biden campaign starts talking about how they're being

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Speaker 7: treated unfairly because he's old, Because they're just reminding of

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Speaker 7: voters that he's old, and it's not avoidable. There's nothing

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Speaker 7: that the campaign can do to change that status.

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Speaker 3: Jenay, I'd like to ask you about an essay that

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Speaker 3: Hillary Clinton wrote in The New York Times today and

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Speaker 3: which she points out that she is the only person

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Speaker 3: to have debated both Donald Trump and Joe Biden. She

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Speaker 3: writes in part that it is nearly impossible to focus

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Speaker 3: on substance when mister Trump is involved. She goes on

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Speaker 3: to say, it is a waste of time to try

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Speaker 3: to refute Trump's arguments, Like in a normal debate, It's

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Speaker 3: nearly impossible to identify what his arguments even are. He

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Speaker 3: starts with nonsense and then digresses into blather. How does

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Speaker 3: Joe Biden debate against that on Thursday?

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Speaker 6: Well, you have to focus on what is Yeah, well,

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Speaker 6: I think you have to focus on what is President

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Speaker 6: Biden's job on that debate stage on Thursday. His job

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Speaker 6: is to set up the contrast between him and former

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Speaker 6: President Trump. His job is to tell the story of

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Speaker 6: how his men registration has led this country out of

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Speaker 6: four years of Donald Trump and helped to you know,

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Speaker 6: recover the economy, help to lead us out of a

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Speaker 6: health crisis. And so, while it is it is no

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Speaker 6: secret that Donald Trump is likely going to come with

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Speaker 6: a number of insults and jabs and and incoherent kind

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Speaker 6: of tirades about any number of things. Who can who

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Speaker 6: can know?

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Speaker 5: Who can?

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Speaker 6: Guess? I think it's important for the president to look

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Speaker 6: presidential right, to present these arguments, to present the plan,

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Speaker 6: to present his accomplishments and what he's done over the

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Speaker 6: last four years. And I think that's really the only

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Speaker 6: way to truly create contrast between him and former President Trump.

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Speaker 6: A lot of that will frankly do play out itself.

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Speaker 6: Right There's there's a lot that President Biden, by just

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Speaker 6: standing up and being presidential, will create an immediate contrast

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Speaker 6: with former President Trump. And I think that's that's his

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Speaker 6: job on that stage on Thursday night, We're going.

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Speaker 1: To see it and hear it right here Onloomberg TV

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Speaker 1: and Radio Big thanks to our smart panel Janey Wartel

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Speaker 1: come back and see us again in Rick davis smart

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Speaker 1: take on the Fastest show in Politics. Charlie Cook is

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Speaker 1: up next on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 2: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 2: royd Outo with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

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Speaker 2: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

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Speaker 2: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty New York.

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Speaker 3: Of course a state we're paying special attention to today,

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Speaker 3: even from down here in Washington, as it is primary day,

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Speaker 3: and there's one recent particular Joe Matthew that we are

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Speaker 3: paying the most acute attention to. It's in the sixteenth

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Speaker 3: Congressional district, in which the incumbent Democrat Jamal Bowman, a

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Speaker 3: member of the Squad, could be the first incumbent to

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Speaker 3: go down this primary season, up against a challenger in

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Speaker 3: George Ladimir, who is painting a very significant contrast over

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Speaker 3: the issue of Israel.

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Speaker 1: That's right, it comes down to Israel. It seems. We

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Speaker 1: talked to Emerson Polling yesterday they had Bowman down, the incumbent,

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Speaker 1: down by seventeen points I think roughly three weeks ago

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Speaker 1: the most recent numbers that we've been looking at here

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Speaker 1: Kayley and would be the first member of the so

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Speaker 1: called squad to lose reelection. So significant here as we

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Speaker 1: consider the states in play, New York, Colorado, Utah. By

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Speaker 1: the way, we're still waiting for the Bob Good race

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Speaker 1: to settle in Virginia, and there's a question about whether

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Speaker 1: This is really a time where we're seeing the centrists

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Speaker 1: advance here and the extremes on both sides run into

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Speaker 1: some headwinds. None other than Charlie Cook is with us

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Speaker 1: to talk about it. Cannon balling into the pool today,

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Speaker 1: the namesake of the Cook Political Report, Charlie gets. Great

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Speaker 1: to have you back and good to see you on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg TV and radio. Is the moral of today's story

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Speaker 1: going to be centrists?

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Speaker 8: When well in New York, I think, I mean Bowman

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Speaker 8: sounds like he's in huge trouble, and I think George

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Speaker 8: or seems well positioned to take him out. But that's

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Speaker 8: sort of the center up against the war, the hard

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Speaker 8: ideological left, a lot of the primaries that we've been

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Speaker 8: seeing in recent weeks and today on the Republican side,

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Speaker 8: it's basically between the far right and the really really

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Speaker 8: far right. You know, it's it's not the classic moderates

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Speaker 8: or centrists and ideologues at all, so but it is.

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Speaker 8: You took the words out of my mouth a minute

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Speaker 8: ago when you said, none of the squad have ever

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Speaker 8: you know, I have had any real problems before. This

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Speaker 8: is the first one. But you know, you know, pulling

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Speaker 8: a fire alarm in the Capitol Building. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 8: when you look at it, it's like, wait a minute.

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Speaker 8: That mean that kind of crystallizes behavior in the minds

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Speaker 8: of voters, where you know, the members can can get

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Speaker 8: away with a lot, but there are limits to it.

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Speaker 8: And I suspect that Congressman Bowman may have hit his limit.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: The infamous fire alarm incident, of course, was during the

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Speaker 3: government shutdown fight in the fall. He was trying to

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Speaker 3: make it to a vote. He maintained that he thought

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Speaker 3: he could exit through the door that ultimately triggered the

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Speaker 3: fire alarm. It was quite a saga. So considering the

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Speaker 3: potential flaw and that being one of this candidate, Charlie,

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Speaker 3: should we be looking at this primary race in New

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Speaker 3: York as idiosyncratic? Is something unique to these candidates and

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Speaker 3: specific issues, or something that could be a tell on

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Speaker 3: the division we are seeing in the Democratic Party over

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Speaker 3: the Israel issues, something that could translate into November.

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Speaker 8: Well, it's a little bit of a cow but frankly,

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Speaker 8: we're not seeing it as quite this big a deal

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Speaker 8: in other primaries yet. I mean, it may get there,

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Speaker 8: but so far we haven't. And I think apac American

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Speaker 8: Israel Public Affairs Committee. They're picking their shots very carefully

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Speaker 8: and sort of rifle shot, going after specific members that

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Speaker 8: they feel like they have a good shot of taking out,

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Speaker 8: as opposed to being seen as a paper tiger going

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Speaker 8: after lots of people and not succeeding in many or

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Speaker 8: any of them. And so I think it's it's it

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Speaker 8: shows some sharp targeting on the part of APAC to

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Speaker 8: concentrate their fire on where they seem to have a

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Speaker 8: really really good chance in not places where you know

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Speaker 8: it'd be a long shot.

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Speaker 1: I'm really glad you mentioned that Charlie Apax super Pac

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Speaker 1: has done almost fifteen million dollars into ads against Congressman Bowman.

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Speaker 1: That is an all time record, an all time record

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Speaker 1: in American political history. With that said, maybe this is

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Speaker 1: the new normal. But what would this race look like

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Speaker 1: without Apax money.

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Speaker 8: It would still probably be pretty close. But let's remind

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Speaker 8: ourselves this is the New York City media market. You know,

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Speaker 8: this is a dubuque, so if you're trying to get

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Speaker 8: through to voters, it's going to be awfully offy off

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Speaker 8: the price these Although granted, television isn't as big an

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Speaker 8: advertising vehicle as it used to be. But oh yeah, no,

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Speaker 8: they were they were playing. You know, Apex was playing

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Speaker 8: for keeps here, no question of no question about it.

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Speaker 8: But uh, and and you know for future, you know,

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Speaker 8: a member is gonna think, jeez, I'm not sure how

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Speaker 8: I'm going to vote, but I remember what happened to Bowman,

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Speaker 8: and I sure wouldn't want to be Bowman did. And uh,

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Speaker 8: you know that can affect behavior. You know, a lot

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Speaker 8: of times members of Congress will look for the path

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Speaker 8: of least resistance, and uh, this clearly was not it

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Speaker 8: for Bowman.

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Speaker 5: Charlie.

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Speaker 3: Of course, it's not just New York that has primary today.

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Speaker 3: There's also primaries in Colorado as well as in Utah

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Speaker 3: and Utah specifically in the congressional races. In the Senate race,

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Speaker 3: we're questioning the power of the Trump endorsement and the

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Speaker 3: gubernatorial primary Trump didn't endorse, despite the incumbent governor being

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Speaker 3: pretty critical of Trump. Trump hasn't stepped into uh to

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Speaker 3: advocate for his challenger. How should we be thinking about

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Speaker 3: the nature of the Trump endorsement in this election cycle

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Speaker 3: and how it is different compared to say, twenty twenty

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Speaker 3: two other cycles before that.

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Speaker 8: Well, former President Trump was incredibly effective in forcing out

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Speaker 8: the infidels, people that had voted for impeachment of him,

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Speaker 8: and where they either jumped or got pushed out pretty effectively.

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Speaker 8: But you know, looking at these primaries, I mean, we're

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Speaker 8: talking about the difference between chocolate and Rocky Road ice

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Speaker 8: cream here. I mean, you're gradations of two, you know,

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Speaker 8: really conservative people, but one of them happened to have

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Speaker 8: Trump's endorsement, but the other one can hardly be portrayed

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Speaker 8: as anti Trump. So you know, I think there are

435
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Speaker 8: limits now for I'd want to extrapolate some of these things.

436
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:59,000
Speaker 8: And the same thing in that Virginia race that we

437
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 8: had last week that undetermined with Congressman Good, We're talking

438
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:07,320
Speaker 8: about some really conservative people here. This isn't you know,

439
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 8: this isn't between the Mitt Romney center right and Trump.

440
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,679
Speaker 8: He's this is doing flavors of really conservative people.

441
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,359
Speaker 1: All right, you went there, Charlie. So what about Bob,

442
00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:24,719
Speaker 1: Bob Good and John McGuire a race. Now, this election

443
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,440
Speaker 1: is a week old. It was last Tuesday in Virginia.

444
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:30,520
Speaker 1: This is the head of the Freedom Caucus, Bob Good,

445
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:33,760
Speaker 1: and we talked a lot about this. The strange bedfellows

446
00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:36,879
Speaker 1: that came together to oppose Bob Good, Donald Trump, and

447
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy swinging together along with establishment Republicans on Capitol Hill.

448
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:45,600
Speaker 1: It's still not called. In fact, Bob Good, who thought

449
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:46,960
Speaker 1: he was going to get a recount, looks like they

450
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:50,840
Speaker 1: will not be within the margin. And John McGuire's margin

451
00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 1: is actually he's picked up a couple of votes. He's

452
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 1: at three hundred and seventy three. But Charlie, Bob Good

453
00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:59,160
Speaker 1: says he's not done, and he said yesterday he will

454
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 1: try to block certification of this vote because of irregularities

455
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:06,159
Speaker 1: in Lynchburg. Is this the beginning of the whole rigged

456
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:08,360
Speaker 1: conversation going into November?

457
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:12,679
Speaker 8: I kind of doubt it. The thing is, with elections

458
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 8: like this, the big jumps in numbers typically come in

459
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 8: the first twenty four to forty eight hours where somebody

460
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:23,159
Speaker 8: you know, made an arithmetic error totaling up the columns.

461
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:28,880
Speaker 8: You don't generally see big time switches shifts and votes,

462
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:32,159
Speaker 8: you know, this far, this far away from an election.

463
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:36,400
Speaker 8: So my guess is that Goods defeat is probably going

464
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 8: to stand, and that you know, when one really conservative

465
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:45,399
Speaker 8: Republican is saying that another really conservative Republicans stole an election.

466
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 8: That doesn't quite get the traction that some of the

467
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:57,280
Speaker 8: charges that that former President Trump has leveled over the years.

468
00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 8: And you know, although frankly, there's very very very little.

469
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,200
Speaker 8: I mean, this country, we have a lot of problems,

470
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:07,600
Speaker 8: and there are lots of things that government doesn't do well.

471
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:11,199
Speaker 8: We actually count votes pretty well and there's not a

472
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 8: voter fraud to even laugh at anymore. But if people

473
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:19,120
Speaker 8: want to believe it, they'll believe it well.

474
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:21,639
Speaker 3: And certainly Donald Trump is still out there talking about

475
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:24,159
Speaker 3: it in the case of the twenty twenty election. And Charlie,

476
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:27,119
Speaker 3: on that note, we have been talking endlessly about Donald

477
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 3: Trump and the debate that is upcoming of him versus

478
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:34,160
Speaker 3: Joe Biden on Thursday on CNN. The question is what

479
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:37,720
Speaker 3: does the debate actually change, if anything, How much potential

480
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:39,720
Speaker 3: does it have to change an election that we all

481
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 3: know is likely to be very very close, in which

482
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 3: many voters on either side for either candidate are already

483
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:47,400
Speaker 3: entrenched and have their minds made up.

484
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:52,439
Speaker 8: Well, debates typically don't make that much different. So, I mean,

485
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,959
Speaker 8: the typical, normal, well adjusted person does not spend an

486
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:58,879
Speaker 8: hour and a half out of their lives watching a

487
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:02,679
Speaker 8: political debate. Usually partisans that are watching to cheer on,

488
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 8: you know, their favorite candidate or jeer the opposition, but

489
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:10,639
Speaker 8: occasionally they do. And one this is obviously a close race,

490
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 8: but I would look for rather than and I was

491
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 8: a high school debater, Rather than think about, okay, who

492
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 8: was smoother, who performed better, I'd say who got a moment,

493
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 8: Who had a moment, Something happened positive or negative that

494
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,159
Speaker 8: people will be talking about at work or in the

495
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,920
Speaker 8: grocery store aisle or over the back fence a day

496
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 8: to three days ago, where it's gone viral, where it's covered,

497
00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 8: played over and over and over again. And we can

498
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 8: all think of cases where that's happened. But most debates

499
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 8: don't move the needle much at all. And the little

500
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:47,440
Speaker 8: eight or ten percent of people that are really, really,

501
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:51,640
Speaker 8: really undecided, they don't read, watch, listen to news. They're

502
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 8: not Bloomberg watchers. You know, these people were kind of

503
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:59,119
Speaker 8: pretty much out and they only check in late if

504
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:01,199
Speaker 8: they check in at all. But these are they're not

505
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:02,160
Speaker 8: debate watchers.

506
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 1: They really are everything.

507
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:11,320
Speaker 8: It's a coverage of the debate. It's more important than

508
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:14,119
Speaker 8: watching the live feed of the debate.

509
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 3: Yeh, the spin and the clips that circulate on TikTok

510
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 3: the next day. Charlie Cook of The Cook Political Report,

511
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 3: thank you so much as always for joining us here

512
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 3: on Balance of Power.

513
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

514
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:35,960
Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

515
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 2: and then Roudoto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on

516
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 2: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

517
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:48,960
Speaker 2: on YouTube.

518
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 1: From Washington on this primary day. Happy Primary Day in

519
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:53,439
Speaker 1: New York included where Kaylee we started this hour talking

520
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 1: about a very difficult challenge for New York Congressman Jamal Bowman,

521
00:27:56,760 --> 00:28:00,240
Speaker 1: and it has everything to do with Israel, with Joe

522
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 1: Biden's policies in Israel and outrage from progressives over this.

523
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 1: He is expected to lose if you believe the polls.

524
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 1: But there's bad news not only for Joe Biden on Israel.

525
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:14,639
Speaker 1: Potentially Benjamin Nett Yahoo today as well as the Israeli

526
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 1: Supreme Court makes a landmark ruling here unanimous. I should

527
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:23,320
Speaker 1: add that the military must begin drafting ultra Orthodox men

528
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 1: for compulsory service. This would end a decade's old system Kailey,

529
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 1: and many think it could lead to the undoing of

530
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:32,359
Speaker 1: Benjamin Nettyaho's.

531
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:35,120
Speaker 3: Government, considering that the coalition government he has formed includes

532
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 3: those on the far right ultra Orthodox, who had in

533
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 3: part in joining this government, wanted to make sure that

534
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:45,600
Speaker 3: the non mandatory participation in the military service for those

535
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 3: ultra Orthodox individuals would be enshrined into law, and here

536
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:53,960
Speaker 3: the Supreme Court is doing as a ruling that does

537
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 3: the exact opposite. Of course, the Court's grounds for this

538
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 3: is essentially the ongoing war, which is now almost nine

539
00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 3: months in, and they said, in the midst of a

540
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 3: difficult war, the burden of inequality is more acute than ever.

541
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 3: The question, Joe, is whether this also makes the burdens

542
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 3: on Benjamin netanyahuo even more acute by extension.

543
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:12,960
Speaker 1: Well, that's absolutely right, and it's happening on what could

544
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 1: be as we've discussed the eve of a new front

545
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 1: opening to the north, as Israel considers waging war against Hesbolah.

546
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a lot to pay attention to, and we

547
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 3: want to dig into this a little further, and welcome

548
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 3: now Jennifer Kavanash. He's a senior fellow in the American

549
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 3: State Craft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

550
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 3: Also an adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program at

551
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 3: Georgetown University. Jennifer, welcome back to balance of power. If

552
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 3: we could first begin with this decision from the Israeli

553
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 3: Supreme Court. How much more difficult could this make Benjamin Netanyah,

554
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 3: whose life domestically.

555
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 9: Well, It would be a big policy change if it

556
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 9: actually comes to pass and is implemented as the court

557
00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 9: laid out, Benjamin Natiah, who is very dependent on his

558
00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 9: coalition to stay in power, and this really could really

559
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 9: split that coalition between those who are supportive of the

560
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 9: ruling and those in the right wing that are opposed

561
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 9: to it. And I think that it's not surprising at

562
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:12,080
Speaker 9: all that the court ruled this way, or that this

563
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 9: issue is getting new scrutiny in light of the ongoing

564
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 9: conflict and the burdens that that's placed on military families.

565
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:23,239
Speaker 9: It's also evidence, I think of the increasing social and

566
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:28,480
Speaker 9: political pressure inside of Israel writ large, which could put

567
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 9: a bottom up pressure on net Yahoo's position.

568
00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:35,120
Speaker 1: I want to hear you speak more to that. During

569
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 1: arguments before the court, the government's lawyers argue that forcing

570
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 1: ultra orthodox man to enlist would quote tear Israeli society

571
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 1: apart unquote were they right?

572
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:52,840
Speaker 9: Well, that's a very difficult question. A lot of terms

573
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 9: there that would need to be defined. But I think

574
00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 9: the bigger pressure that the country is facing right now

575
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:02,320
Speaker 9: is the burdens of the war are and the ongoing

576
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:09,640
Speaker 9: ramifications of the October seventh attack on Israel. Many families

577
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 9: now have have lost service members and have service members

578
00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 9: serving in Gaza. And it's also important to note that

579
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 9: there's also this other looming front up in the North

580
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 9: and a potential additional set of call ups the reserves

581
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 9: to fight against Hesblas. So this is not a short

582
00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:34,680
Speaker 9: term issue, and I think that the court then has

583
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:39,040
Speaker 9: to weigh these decisions the the the the different pressures,

584
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:41,320
Speaker 9: the pressures from military families and the pressures from the

585
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:44,160
Speaker 9: orthobox community. I will say that it's not uncommon for

586
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 9: there to be conscious conscientious objectors and personnel who are

587
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 9: uncomfortable serving in military positions, even in the United States,

588
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:53,480
Speaker 9: but there are often ways to bridge that gap in

589
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 9: terms of having them serve in support roles or administrative roles.

590
00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:58,480
Speaker 9: There's lots of roles that need to be filled in

591
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:01,160
Speaker 9: war times. So it's it seems that this should be

592
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 9: something that could be bridged without tearing apart the fabric

593
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 9: of the community. As the government's lawyer stated.

594
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 3: Well, Jennifer, let's expand upon what you just raised there,

595
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 3: this notion or what seems like it could be a

596
00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 3: growing risk that Israel actually does open up a second

597
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 3: front in this war on the border in the north

598
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:22,760
Speaker 3: with Lebanon and go after Hesbela directly. As you were

599
00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 3: just speaking there to already the burden that Israel is

600
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 3: facing in regard to the first front of the war,

601
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:31,000
Speaker 3: the ongoing operations in Gaza, the toll that is taking

602
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:35,000
Speaker 3: on Israeli citizens, on families, on the Israeli economy. Certainly,

603
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:39,120
Speaker 3: can Israel afford to go against Hesbela directly at this moment,

604
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 3: whether in actual economic sense or in personnel sense, Well.

605
00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 9: It'll be very difficult, and it would require the Israeli

606
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:48,880
Speaker 9: government and military to make some tough choices in terms

607
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 9: of how to allocate resources and personnel. The operation in

608
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:56,760
Speaker 9: Gaza is likely to continue for some time the military

609
00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 9: and net Yah, who has indicated that the most intense

610
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 9: phase is drawing down, but also continue to hold tight

611
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 9: to a goal of eradicating Hamas, which is not a

612
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 9: short term goal, it's a long term goal. So that

613
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 9: suggests a long term presence in the Gaza strip and

614
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 9: taking on Hezbla is going to be even more difficult

615
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 9: so than Hamas because it is much better armed, much larger,

616
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 9: and has many more resources. So that's going to be

617
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:28,800
Speaker 9: an even more costly and difficult conflict were it to occur.

618
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:33,400
Speaker 9: So the decision to do that would be very It

619
00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 9: would be difficult for Israel and requires significant sacrifices from

620
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 9: the population and the government. The United States has indicated

621
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:44,520
Speaker 9: the Biden administration has indicated that it would be there

622
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 9: to back the Israelis up if they chose to make

623
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:50,920
Speaker 9: this move, but that probably doesn't mean US troops on

624
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:53,960
Speaker 9: the ground. It probably means a continued military assistance.

625
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 1: Jennifer Yov Golant, the Israel's Defense Minister, is in Washington

626
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 1: right now a third day of meetings and talks with

627
00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 1: Biden administration officials, and today he's spending time with our

628
00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 1: Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin. The conversation is square directly

629
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:14,960
Speaker 1: at the potential for a war with Hesbelah and what

630
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 1: the US hopes is the potential to avoid one. We

631
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 1: know almost Hochstein is in the region to try to

632
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:25,640
Speaker 1: conduct talks preemptively getting into this with all of the

633
00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:29,839
Speaker 1: stakeholders involved in the region. Can the US keep this

634
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 1: from happening?

635
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:37,239
Speaker 9: I guess my question really is whether or not the

636
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:39,880
Speaker 9: US is willing to take the steps it would need

637
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 9: to to stop it from happening. It's true that the

638
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 9: United States is pushing diplomacy and that the yesterday Secretary

639
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 9: Blinken urged the Israelis to avoid additional espalation, But at

640
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:55,000
Speaker 9: the same time, it's also been made pretty clear that

641
00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:57,360
Speaker 9: the United States sees this as a decision for Israel

642
00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:00,319
Speaker 9: to make, and have sent messages both to Is that

643
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 9: it would be there to back them up and as

644
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:07,759
Speaker 9: well as to Hesbela to avoid escalation on its on

645
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:13,719
Speaker 9: its side, and the Biden administration has indicated that they

646
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:16,960
Speaker 9: will continue to flow forces into the region. The uss

647
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 9: S rule Roosevelts is moving from the Pacific Theater into

648
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 9: the Mediterranean, and there's some additional Marine Corps assets in

649
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:27,279
Speaker 9: the region as well. So I question whether or not

650
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:30,799
Speaker 9: the Biden administration has the willingness to actually leverage US

651
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:32,560
Speaker 9: influence to stop this from happening.

652
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:38,719
Speaker 3: So there's the question of what the US either attempting

653
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 3: to make sure it doesn't happen, would be, or its

654
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:44,759
Speaker 3: response would be in the instance that Israel does pursue this,

655
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 3: in Hebela pursues Israel back in return. As there's a

656
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 3: risk assessment, certainly that has to happen on both sides.

657
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 3: There also is the question of the backer of Hesbela

658
00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 3: in Iran. Jennifer, we were speaking last night with your

659
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 3: colleague Garran David Miller, who suggests, and if you see

660
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:04,279
Speaker 3: the second front open, what actually opens is potentially the

661
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:06,920
Speaker 3: regional conflict the US has been trying to avoid all along,

662
00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:09,600
Speaker 3: as it would draw the US in directly and Iran

663
00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:13,680
Speaker 3: in directly. What would that really look like if it's

664
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:17,200
Speaker 3: not Iranian proxies that we are talking about, but potentially

665
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 3: Iran itself.

666
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:24,839
Speaker 9: Well, that's obviously a very dangerous situation. I think all

667
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 9: actors involved are hoping to avoid a regional war of

668
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 9: that kind. It's important to recognize that any tiny step

669
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:35,320
Speaker 9: up the escalation ladder moves us closer to that point.

670
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 9: Whether that's just in ISRAELI has a lot of conflict

671
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:42,880
Speaker 9: or Iran gets involved directly, and I think, you know,

672
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:45,800
Speaker 9: if we have US forces on the ground and Iranian

673
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:48,520
Speaker 9: forces on the ground, that starts to look like a

674
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:53,640
Speaker 9: very different conflict. It's important to recognize that the Iranians

675
00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:59,160
Speaker 9: have significant military capabilities and are not all that far

676
00:36:59,200 --> 00:37:02,279
Speaker 9: away from potential having a nuclear weapon, and that any

677
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 9: conflict that involved the US and Iran in the region

678
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:09,360
Speaker 9: could easily spell into surrounding countries. So I would say,

679
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 9: in terms of trying to imagine the scale of what

680
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:13,120
Speaker 9: it could be, I'm not saying that it would be,

681
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:15,759
Speaker 9: but it would be much worse than anything the US

682
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:19,680
Speaker 9: experienced during the US invasion of Iraq in two thousand

683
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:24,280
Speaker 9: and three. So really something to avoid on all parties

684
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 9: we have.

685
00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 1: Well, maybe you can tell us the right question to

686
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:30,919
Speaker 1: ask in this case, Jennifer, But what would the US

687
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:32,800
Speaker 1: posture be in that scenario.

688
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 9: Well, the Biden administration has been very cautious in terms

689
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 9: of any sort of comitment of US forces on the ground.

690
00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 9: At the same time, they're already US troops stationed in

691
00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 9: the region that have come under attack. I think the

692
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 9: US would do everything possible to avoid having its own

693
00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:57,839
Speaker 9: forces fighting directly with Iranian forces, just as it's done

694
00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:01,839
Speaker 9: everything possible in Europe to make sure that it's never

695
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:05,920
Speaker 9: US forces directly engaging Rustern soldiers. So I would imagine

696
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 9: they would try to stick to military assistant as far

697
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:11,560
Speaker 9: as long as possible. At the same time, we know

698
00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:14,800
Speaker 9: from just over the past few months that the US

699
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 9: is willing to be pretty engaged in terms of protecting

700
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:20,239
Speaker 9: Israeli territory. So I would say the US would try

701
00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 9: to keep ground forces out of the picture for as

702
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:24,840
Speaker 9: long as possible, but would not roll out things like

703
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:28,720
Speaker 9: helping Israel protect its airspace and water space.

704
00:38:30,560 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 1: Jennifer, it's great to have you. We'd love to have

705
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 1: you back. Jennifer Kavanaugh, Senior Fellow in the American state

706
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:38,160
Speaker 1: Craft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

707
00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:44,560
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ken

708
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:47,799
Speaker 2: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

709
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:50,480
Speaker 2: roud Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also

710
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:54,040
Speaker 2: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

711
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

712
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:01,759
Speaker 1: It's only which I guess is good news if you're

713
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 1: preparing for a debate that could decide the election on

714
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:08,560
Speaker 1: Thursday night. We've got a lot to talk about today

715
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:11,359
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and on YouTube, where

716
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 1: you can find us right now. Search Bloomberg Global News

717
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:16,160
Speaker 1: to find our live feed and we'll bring you right

718
00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 1: here in the studio with a lot to talk about

719
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 1: these next two hours. We've heard so much about the

720
00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 1: preparations of the candidates. Joe Biden's locked down right now

721
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:28,719
Speaker 1: at Camp David. Must be beautiful up there, by the way.

722
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 1: It's a gorgeous day in the nation's capital, away from

723
00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:34,920
Speaker 1: the reporters, away from the cameras, away from the briefing room,

724
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 1: away from the distractions in the bubble at the White House.

725
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 1: And it does look like he's going to be going

726
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:43,920
Speaker 1: straight from Camp David to the debate in Atlanta on Thursday.

727
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 1: Donald Trump made time as riffin and holding fundraisers this week,

728
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 1: not doing the traditional prep as you keep hearing. But

729
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 1: now that we've established that, I point you to the

730
00:39:59,040 --> 00:40:03,040
Speaker 1: cocoon of horror. Now, if you grow up around Boston,

731
00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:04,359
Speaker 1: if you live in New England, you know who I'm

732
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:07,920
Speaker 1: talking about. That is a phrase coined by John Keller,

733
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 1: the dean of political journalists in New England who's moderated

734
00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:14,560
Speaker 1: more debates than probably all of us have ever seen,

735
00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:17,520
Speaker 1: and he begins each of them by warning the candidates

736
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:20,879
Speaker 1: that if they do not follow the rules, they will

737
00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:23,480
Speaker 1: end up in the cocoon of horror. He says this

738
00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 1: to senators, governors, and it might need to be said

739
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:31,279
Speaker 1: to a couple of presidents, a current one and a

740
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:33,200
Speaker 1: former one. On Thursday. We're at the point now where

741
00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:35,880
Speaker 1: the mics have to be caught off because the rules

742
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:39,520
Speaker 1: kind of don't matter. So we thought we would talk

743
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:42,960
Speaker 1: to the uber moderator today about a couple of things,

744
00:40:43,719 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 1: beginning with this debate on Thursday night. John Keller is

745
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:50,200
Speaker 1: the political analyst at WBZ TV and Radio in Boston.

746
00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:53,880
Speaker 1: He's also writing for Boston Magazine and a longtime colleague

747
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:55,520
Speaker 1: of mine, John, I just don't want to end up

748
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:58,319
Speaker 1: in the cocoon of horror. Welcome to Bloomberg Radio. Welcome back.

749
00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:01,440
Speaker 1: It's good to see you. I wonder what's going through

750
00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:04,520
Speaker 1: your mind now as you're preparing to moderate a debate

751
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 1: if you're Jake Tapper, a Dana Bash, knowing that the

752
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:10,920
Speaker 1: Trump machine is already attacking you and trying to damage

753
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:15,240
Speaker 1: your credibility ahead of a forum that could be wild West.

754
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 1: How does a moderator prepare for a debate where rules

755
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:22,040
Speaker 1: don't seem to matter.

756
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 10: By drinking heavily? No, I'm kidding about that that. They

757
00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:33,000
Speaker 10: should probably save that for afterward. But Joe, first of all,

758
00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:35,240
Speaker 10: thank you for having me in a real quick correction

759
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:38,880
Speaker 10: credit where it's due. I borrowed the phrase cocoon of

760
00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:43,440
Speaker 10: horror from Peter McNeely, a club boxer in the Boston

761
00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 10: area who was the first victim of Mike Tyson.

762
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:49,360
Speaker 5: After he came out of prison.

763
00:41:50,040 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 10: McNeely vowed that Tyson would enter his cocoon of horror,

764
00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 10: and of course, as you may recall, he was flat

765
00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:57,960
Speaker 10: on his back within thirty seconds.

766
00:41:58,040 --> 00:41:59,080
Speaker 5: So just to.

767
00:41:59,080 --> 00:42:03,439
Speaker 10: Correct, Wow, okay, look, I mean, they've got the mute

768
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:08,400
Speaker 10: button at CNN ready to go. I think they're going

769
00:42:08,480 --> 00:42:13,239
Speaker 10: to have to use it. It'll be interesting to see how

770
00:42:13,320 --> 00:42:18,960
Speaker 10: much muted background noise coming from I think you know

771
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 10: what side it's going to be coming from. How much

772
00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 10: the audience will be able to hear through Biden's mike

773
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:31,239
Speaker 10: and the moderator's mike. That'll be an interesting element of this.

774
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:37,400
Speaker 10: But look, if you're a moderator, first of all, you

775
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:40,240
Speaker 10: have to keep in mind who this debate is about.

776
00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 10: It's not about you, the moderator and your smart questions.

777
00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:50,680
Speaker 10: It's not about really about the candidates. It's about the voters.

778
00:42:51,400 --> 00:42:54,200
Speaker 10: Are they going to have an opportunity if they pay

779
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:58,759
Speaker 10: attention to emerge better informed about the momentous choice they

780
00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:02,440
Speaker 10: have to make? Then they were going in so in

781
00:43:02,560 --> 00:43:08,760
Speaker 10: order to do that, particularly given these two, the baseline

782
00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:11,560
Speaker 10: is to try to impose order.

783
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:15,080
Speaker 5: And so it wouldn't surprise.

784
00:43:14,760 --> 00:43:21,120
Speaker 10: Me at all to hear Tapper and or Dana Bash,

785
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:25,279
Speaker 10: if not screaming, then yelling at Donald Trump early on

786
00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:30,400
Speaker 10: to clam up if he tries to shout over Biden,

787
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:32,759
Speaker 10: as I suspect he's probably going to try to do.

788
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:39,399
Speaker 10: If they can threaten him or you know, show him

789
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:42,640
Speaker 10: what the cocoon of horror in this instance looks like,

790
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:47,000
Speaker 10: they might be able to rain him in.

791
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:48,479
Speaker 5: It worked four years ago.

792
00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 10: You may recall in that it wasn't so much the

793
00:43:53,239 --> 00:43:56,880
Speaker 10: moderators that rained in Trump. It was the bad reviews

794
00:43:56,960 --> 00:44:01,719
Speaker 10: from that first dyspeptic, out of control debate performance. His

795
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:04,799
Speaker 10: own people, I think said to him you've got to

796
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:07,879
Speaker 10: tone it down for the second debate, and he did, right.

797
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:10,840
Speaker 1: I want to know where you are on live fact checking,

798
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:13,480
Speaker 1: because this has become part of our reality, John, and

799
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:16,680
Speaker 1: it's got its limits, as we saw in the town

800
00:44:16,719 --> 00:44:20,520
Speaker 1: hall with Don Donald Trump on this same network on CNN,

801
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 1: and they were excoriated. In fact, the guy who ran

802
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:26,880
Speaker 1: the network was shown the door after this. So is

803
00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:28,760
Speaker 1: it really incumbent upon the moderator?

804
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 2: Now?

805
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 1: Is this the modern interpretation of the job where they

806
00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:35,879
Speaker 1: have to fact check live every answer they get, as

807
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:39,200
Speaker 1: opposed to say post show analysis or just letting voters

808
00:44:39,239 --> 00:44:40,040
Speaker 1: do their own homework.

809
00:44:40,640 --> 00:44:43,600
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean, look, they are honest differences of opinion

810
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:48,600
Speaker 10: on that within the world of debate moderators. My view

811
00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:53,799
Speaker 10: is that that's not my job. You know, if in

812
00:44:54,120 --> 00:44:58,200
Speaker 10: one of the candidates says something false about me or

813
00:44:58,280 --> 00:45:03,799
Speaker 10: about my network, I might correct them live. But I

814
00:45:03,920 --> 00:45:09,760
Speaker 10: believe that if Joe Biden or Donald Trump says something

815
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 10: that's probably false, it's up to the other candidate to

816
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:19,000
Speaker 10: correct them. That is part of the information that is

817
00:45:19,040 --> 00:45:23,279
Speaker 10: imparted by a debate is this person who wants to

818
00:45:23,320 --> 00:45:27,440
Speaker 10: wield power over my life, someone who's well versed in

819
00:45:27,480 --> 00:45:33,040
Speaker 10: the facts, courageous and aggressive enough to correct misstatements of

820
00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:36,480
Speaker 10: fact when they occur on the spot. Are they quick

821
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:39,200
Speaker 10: enough to do so?

822
00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:39,279
Speaker 5: So?

823
00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:43,360
Speaker 10: No, I don't think the moderators should fact check live.

824
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:46,280
Speaker 5: I think that's up to the other candidate.

825
00:45:46,600 --> 00:45:50,200
Speaker 10: And you mentioned the responsibility of the viewer at home,

826
00:45:50,280 --> 00:45:53,960
Speaker 10: and I think that's an under remark upon part of

827
00:45:54,000 --> 00:45:59,839
Speaker 10: these debates. You know, are you prepared to walk into

828
00:45:59,840 --> 00:46:05,440
Speaker 10: a bakery and be sold a rotten coffee roll without

829
00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:08,720
Speaker 10: looking it over first, maybe asking is this thrash?

830
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:11,600
Speaker 5: It looks a little green around the edges. I don't

831
00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:12,000
Speaker 5: think so.

832
00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:15,960
Speaker 10: Why would you accept political rhetoric that's also rotten?

833
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:20,440
Speaker 1: Is this the new precedent? Mike's caught off in a

834
00:46:20,480 --> 00:46:23,840
Speaker 1: debate like this and networks running their own show. I

835
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:25,800
Speaker 1: have to call this thing to see and n debate,

836
00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:28,799
Speaker 1: I'm told in every reference, John, because the Commission isn't

837
00:46:28,840 --> 00:46:29,600
Speaker 1: running these now.

838
00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think it might be, Joe. I mean, we'll

839
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 10: see how it goes. I'm glad that they did away

840
00:46:37,719 --> 00:46:40,960
Speaker 10: with the live audience. I've always felt live audiences are

841
00:46:41,000 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 10: completely superfluous to a televised debate and just at best

842
00:46:46,920 --> 00:46:49,440
Speaker 10: are an unnecessary distraction.

843
00:46:50,360 --> 00:46:52,120
Speaker 5: We'll see how well the MIC's work.

844
00:46:52,200 --> 00:46:54,600
Speaker 10: To remember, they had it in the Second debate four

845
00:46:54,680 --> 00:46:59,359
Speaker 10: years ago and it didn't seem to be needed very

846
00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:02,719
Speaker 10: much because Trump cleaned up his act a little bit.

847
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:11,520
Speaker 10: So yeah, certainly, disposing of the committee overseeing the debates,

848
00:47:12,600 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 10: it seems to have left the American public dry eyed.

849
00:47:15,760 --> 00:47:19,520
Speaker 10: I don't hear much upset over that. We'll see how

850
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:24,160
Speaker 10: it goes. But I think people deserve a better product

851
00:47:24,239 --> 00:47:26,800
Speaker 10: than they've gotten at times in the past. And I also,

852
00:47:28,440 --> 00:47:31,880
Speaker 10: you know, two moderators, from my money, is one moderator

853
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 10: too many. But at least they don't have a whole

854
00:47:35,360 --> 00:47:41,120
Speaker 10: panel of reporters preen ng and dowing up unnecessary time.

855
00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:43,640
Speaker 5: That I believe is also an improvement show.

856
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:47,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, we won't hold our breath for the National

857
00:47:47,360 --> 00:47:52,200
Speaker 1: Media Consortium to the next debate. Here John Keller with

858
00:47:52,280 --> 00:47:55,240
Speaker 1: us on Ballots of Power here on Bloomberg. The economy

859
00:47:55,280 --> 00:47:58,919
Speaker 1: is going to be a big issue in this debate, John,

860
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:02,040
Speaker 1: and I don't suspect it's going to be terribly well informed.

861
00:48:02,640 --> 00:48:06,640
Speaker 1: And when we start talking about the specifics of what's

862
00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:12,080
Speaker 1: driving inflation, you start talking about monetary policy, real estate

863
00:48:12,640 --> 00:48:15,680
Speaker 1: is something that I'd like to talk to you about here,

864
00:48:15,719 --> 00:48:18,280
Speaker 1: because we're going to go from the cocoon of horror

865
00:48:18,280 --> 00:48:23,120
Speaker 1: with John Keller to the urban doom loop. You're writing

866
00:48:23,120 --> 00:48:26,040
Speaker 1: about the commercial real estate collapse of the twenty twenties.

867
00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:28,719
Speaker 1: It's how you put it. In a new piece in

868
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:33,200
Speaker 1: Boston Magazine. The headline is Boston's economy doomed. And we

869
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Speaker 1: can extrapolate this to look at cities around the country.

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Speaker 1: But the fact is, and I was fascinated to learn

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Speaker 1: this from John's reporting, nowhere is this collapse more acute

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Speaker 1: than in Boston. MSCI finds property sale prices in the

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Speaker 1: Central Business District cratered in the fourth quarter by more

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Speaker 1: than thirty percent year over year. That declines steeper than

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Speaker 1: any other city that MSCI tracked. John, you can speak

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Speaker 1: to what's happened in Boston, but it's happening all over

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Speaker 1: the country. This is the post COVID world we live in.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 5: It is.

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Speaker 10: Unfortunately, cities like San Francisco in New York and the

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Speaker 10: problems with vacant office space and workers not returning once

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Speaker 10: the pandemic quote unquote ended has been a big story.

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Speaker 10: But Boston has been particularly bad. The numbers don't lie, Joe.

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Speaker 10: There's a variety of reasons for that. There was a

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Speaker 10: bill a commercial office space boom in Boston over the

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Speaker 10: last decade or so, and it's a city with notoriously

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Speaker 10: bad commuter traffic and poor public transit. So the first

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Speaker 10: opportunity most office workers got to ditch their commute. Anyone

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Speaker 10: who could work from home made it clear they preferred

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Speaker 10: to do so. Compounding the situation in Boston is that Boston,

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Speaker 10: more than any other major city in the country, had

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Speaker 10: relied heavily on commercial real estate tax revenues for its

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Speaker 10: annual budget. This worked out really well for a series

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Speaker 10: of politicians over the years, who, as a result, could

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Speaker 10: keep the residential rates very low and accept the plaudits

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Speaker 10: of the residents of the city. But because they have

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Speaker 10: leaned so heavily, they get a higher percentage of their

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Speaker 10: revenues from commercial real estate taxes than any other city.

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Speaker 10: The crash promises to devastate the city's revenue flow in

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Speaker 10: the coming years.

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Speaker 5: So what to do about it? Well? The mayor Mayor.

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Speaker 10: Michelle wou has suggested that she wants the authority from

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Speaker 10: state legends to jack up the commercial tax rate to

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Speaker 10: make up for any shortfall.

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Speaker 5: Well, this has the commercial property.

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Speaker 10: Owners just orbiting the earth with fury. And the fact is, surprise, surprise,

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Speaker 10: capital is mobile. And you're seeing already an exodus of

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Speaker 10: a commercial real estate investment of from downtown Boston, where

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Speaker 10: it's been booming in recent years, to the near suburbs,

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Speaker 10: or to other states, and.

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Speaker 5: That keeps up Boston's in big trouble.

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Speaker 1: Joe, Wow, John, this is a really important story, and

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Speaker 1: I haven't heard it frame this way until now, almost

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Speaker 1: as if she was listening and reading your column that

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Speaker 1: we're talking about.

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Speaker 5: Here.

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Speaker 1: I see in the Globe today the Boston Globe Governor

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Speaker 1: Mara Healy announcing the administration they're providing fifteen million dollars

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Speaker 1: to extend a city program that converts under used office

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Speaker 1: buildings to house John, I've got less than a minute left.

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Speaker 1: Is that the.

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Speaker 10: Answer, Well, it might be part of the solution. There

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Speaker 10: are problems with that, though. Converting office towers buildings that

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Speaker 10: were designed for office use to residential is in general

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00:52:18,640 --> 00:52:23,760
Speaker 10: a hugely expensive proposition, and Boston lags behind other cities

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Speaker 10: like San Francisco in providing what appeared to be the

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Speaker 10: necessary incentives to developers to go in and do that.

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Speaker 10: There's just a handful of projects under way here, so

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Speaker 10: they're going to have to get more creative than that.

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Speaker 10: There's a lot of ideas floating around, but the political

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Speaker 10: class around here in Boston at least, is lagging well

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Speaker 10: behind this new landscape of economic reality.

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Speaker 1: Joe, they call him Keller at Large up in New England,

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Speaker 1: John Keller. Great to have you find that story in

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Speaker 1: Boston Magazine. You'll learn a lot smart from a dear friend,

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Speaker 1: John Keller. Thanks for being with us on Bloomberg. Thanks

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00:53:05,960 --> 00:53:09,080
Speaker 1: for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure

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00:53:09,120 --> 00:53:12,000
Speaker 1: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or

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Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us

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00:53:14,760 --> 00:53:18,319
Speaker 1: live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com.