WEBVTT - Part Four: The Men Who Might Have Killed Us All

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<v Speaker 1>Also media, Welcome back to Behind the Bastards, a podcast

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<v Speaker 1>about how everyone might die in nuclear hell fire. This

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<v Speaker 1>is part four of our series on the bastards who

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<v Speaker 1>built the doomsday device that we all currently live under,

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<v Speaker 1>the looming sword of Damocles above all of our heads,

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<v Speaker 1>the several thousand nuclear weapons ready at a moment's notice

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<v Speaker 1>to destroy everything any of us have ever loved or

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<v Speaker 1>cared about. Back with me to really get into some shit,

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<v Speaker 1>because I did not expect it to take this long

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<v Speaker 1>to get to the mid fifties. But there's a lot

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<v Speaker 1>to talk about. Margaret Kiljoy, how are you doing.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm good. I've come up with a strategy and the

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<v Speaker 2>strategies I've decided. I believe you are telling me Warhammer

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<v Speaker 2>forty k lore that.

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<v Speaker 1>Would make this a lot more comforting.

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<v Speaker 2>Huh. Yeah, this is just something that some space orcs

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<v Speaker 2>have decided to do.

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<v Speaker 1>There are orcs in space and Warhammer that's a very

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<v Speaker 1>important part of the setting. So I'm going to start

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<v Speaker 1>this episode with something that happened concurrent to the last

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<v Speaker 1>couple of years that we've talked about in part three,

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<v Speaker 1>right as you know, the kind of fallout from the

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<v Speaker 1>Korean War is going on, and the US and the

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<v Speaker 1>Soviet nuclear stockpiles are ballooning from the hundreds to the thousands.

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<v Speaker 1>Curtis LeMay had, as I noted, become obsessed with the

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<v Speaker 1>idea of being able to land a first strike that

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<v Speaker 1>would compromise or cripple the Soviet ability to strike back.

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<v Speaker 1>In public, President Eisenhower was very careful to only discuss

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<v Speaker 1>a US nuclear response in defensive terms, but in nineteen

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<v Speaker 1>fifty four, the Eisenhower Dulles Declaration announced that the US

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<v Speaker 1>would respond to Soviet provocation anywhere, even using conventional weapons

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<v Speaker 1>quote at places and with means of our own choosing.

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<v Speaker 1>The term massive retaliation came to symbolize the Eisenhower administration's

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<v Speaker 1>promise to the Soviet Union. Right, basically, if you provoke us,

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<v Speaker 1>if you fuck with us, we'll kill everybody. Right, that's

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<v Speaker 1>kind of the idea. You know, that's not exact, but

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<v Speaker 1>it's we will retaliate massively. And that that that isn't

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<v Speaker 1>that means nuclear, right.

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<v Speaker 2>Trying to have a fist fight with someone who has

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<v Speaker 2>like a suicide vest on and you're.

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<v Speaker 1>Just in a room, which, by the way, is the

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<v Speaker 1>best way to get into a fist fight, which is

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<v Speaker 1>why if you want to buy one of our patented

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<v Speaker 1>suicide vests today, you know, never get beat up again. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>or get beat up exactly one more time. It's probably

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<v Speaker 1>a more accurate way to look at the way the

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<v Speaker 1>suicide vest works.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, we've actually we've workshopped it. They're called lifefests, now.

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<v Speaker 1>Called life vest. Now we're currently suing the boat people

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<v Speaker 1>over their life vest. But I think this is going

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<v Speaker 1>to work out well for us.

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<v Speaker 2>The lawsuit worked really well because we went in wearing

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<v Speaker 2>our product.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, we wore our product and we can't. We brought

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<v Speaker 1>a life rate.

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<v Speaker 3>To by stopping.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh man. So this whole idea of the Eisenower Dolus declaration,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not a promise that we actually keep, right Eisenhower,

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<v Speaker 1>I think there's a degree to which I mean elements

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<v Speaker 1>of this are things that the US will do at

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<v Speaker 1>other times without using nuclear weapons. But Ike is fundamentally

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<v Speaker 1>a guy who he has some respect for human life. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>So there's this big conflict between Taiwan and the People's

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<v Speaker 1>Republic of China that comes very close during his presidency

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<v Speaker 1>to exploding into nuclear hostilities. Like we're seriously considering using

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<v Speaker 1>nukes to like basically like clear Taiwan's flanks, right, because

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<v Speaker 1>they're in a rough strategic situation for US to respond

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<v Speaker 1>to with anything else. But Eisenower proves less willing to

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<v Speaker 1>massively retaliate than he was willing to talk about massive retaliation,

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<v Speaker 1>and the situation eventually resolves without the use of nuclear weapons,

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<v Speaker 1>thank fucking God. Right, Yeah, So it is this situation

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<v Speaker 1>where Eisenhower is he wants to, he wants that threat

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<v Speaker 1>to be out there, but he really does not, and

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<v Speaker 1>none of our presidents really do. After Truman, they don't

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<v Speaker 1>want a nuke. People, they're really anti nuke because they're

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<v Speaker 1>not insane as a general rule, like Nixon kind of is,

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<v Speaker 1>but even he's not that crazy for the most part, Right,

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<v Speaker 1>for the most part. The evolving nature of nuclear warfare

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<v Speaker 1>it meant that units across the globe are now by

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<v Speaker 1>the mid to late fifties armed with nukes meant for

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<v Speaker 1>defensive purposes. This becomes an obsession for the military as

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<v Speaker 1>a whole. The idea was that nuclear weapons could be

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<v Speaker 1>launched to air burst and destroy entire fleets of Soviet

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<v Speaker 1>bombers or naval vessels at a time. Now by the

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<v Speaker 1>mid nineteen fifties, every American was well aware of the

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<v Speaker 1>horrors of nuclear war, and one of the few comforting

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<v Speaker 1>thoughts they could rely on was the fact that only

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<v Speaker 1>the president could order a nuclear attack. That was a lie.

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<v Speaker 1>Turns out that was not true. In the book Fifteen Minutes, L.

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<v Speaker 1>Douglas Keeney reveals, and I think this is the thing

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<v Speaker 1>that was came to light while he was writing his

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<v Speaker 1>book as a result of like information requests and stuff

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<v Speaker 1>that he was filing. But in nineteen fifty seven, this

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<v Speaker 1>was not known until very recently. In nineteen fifty seven,

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<v Speaker 1>President Eisenhower issued a presidential authorization that provided instructions for

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<v Speaker 1>field commanders to use nuclear weapons in specific defensive situations

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<v Speaker 1>without any outside approval. A small number of authorizing commanders

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<v Speaker 1>in chief even had the ability to launch and command

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<v Speaker 1>a retalian nuclear strike on the Soviet Union after a

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<v Speaker 1>direct attack on the United States. Right, it was never

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<v Speaker 1>really true during this period of time, like, at least

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<v Speaker 1>not after the middle of the Eisenhower administration, that only

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<v Speaker 1>the president could order a nuclear strike. For one thing,

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<v Speaker 1>there's no governor on these so theoretically anybody who had

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<v Speaker 1>one could have made the decision, but also Eisenhower gives

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<v Speaker 1>field commanders the ability and this is mainly meant for

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<v Speaker 1>with the exception of those guys who had that small

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<v Speaker 1>number of guys who could do a retaliatory strike. Most

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<v Speaker 1>of these are guys who if they see a fleet

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<v Speaker 1>of bombers incoming, they can fire anti aircraft nuclear artillery, right, Like,

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<v Speaker 1>it's that sort of thing. So it's not as crazy

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<v Speaker 1>as it could have been, but it's pretty crazy, right this.

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<v Speaker 2>Like this does have Would that have brought on like

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<v Speaker 2>if we had been like, oh, fuck these bombers and

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<v Speaker 2>nuked them in the sky, would that have like brought

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<v Speaker 2>on USSR's retaliation.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, at that point, they were already sending a

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<v Speaker 1>bomber fleet over right, So I mean they probably would

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<v Speaker 1>have continued to fight.

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<v Speaker 2>Right.

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<v Speaker 1>It's you know, at this point, because we don't have ICBMs,

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<v Speaker 1>we still might have had a nuclear war that didn't

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<v Speaker 1>kill everybody, right, because you could have theoretically had one

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<v Speaker 1>that was devastating enough that the major powers are not

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<v Speaker 1>able to keep fighting. But everything doesn't get expended because

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<v Speaker 1>we can't just launch thousands of ICBMs at a moment's notice, Right,

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<v Speaker 1>That's not really an option right now. What makes this dangerous, though,

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<v Speaker 1>is that by the late nineteen fifties, there are nuclear

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<v Speaker 1>weapons US nuclear weapons fucking everywhere all over the world

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<v Speaker 1>at all times. Curtis LeMay had insisted from the beginning

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<v Speaker 1>because he's really obsessed with the SAC's readiness, right, and

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<v Speaker 1>so he from the jump is like, our bomber crews

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<v Speaker 1>have to train regularly by flying test missions with functional

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear weapons on board. It's not a real test if

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<v Speaker 1>they don't have an actual nuke on the plane, right.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, I don't understand why, but.

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<v Speaker 1>Sure, well, because he's the craziest man who ever lived.

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<v Speaker 1>Our second text to MacArthur, maybe.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, you can only dry fire with bullets in.

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<v Speaker 1>The right, right, it's fucking insane. And what this means

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<v Speaker 1>practically is that from this point on, thousands of nuclear

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<v Speaker 1>weapons are flying across the US and the world. Every year.

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<v Speaker 1>There are always nukes flying around at all times, tons

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<v Speaker 1>of them. It's so scary, it's fucking insane.

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<v Speaker 2>That's okay, soviy, this is warhammer, yeah, warhammer lore.

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<v Speaker 1>In the early nineteen fifties, LeMay had developed the beginning

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<v Speaker 1>of a strategy to keep what he called an air

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<v Speaker 1>fleet in readiness, with planes always armed and always in

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<v Speaker 1>the air, with nukes ready to divert their course to

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<v Speaker 1>attack the Soviet heartland or other targets at a moment's notice.

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<v Speaker 1>The reasoning for this seemed sound to the men doing it.

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<v Speaker 1>If the Soviets knew that they could get away with

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<v Speaker 1>a first strike on the US, they might try. The

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<v Speaker 1>best way to make sure they never did was by

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<v Speaker 1>always having bombers in the air and ready to fight

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<v Speaker 1>at all times, which meant at all times dozens to

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<v Speaker 1>hundreds to even thousands of nukes might be out in

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<v Speaker 1>the world, and this meant there would always be nukes

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<v Speaker 1>going missing. Right, h If you are flying thousands of

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<v Speaker 1>flights a year that have nukes on them, a percentage

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<v Speaker 1>of those bombers are going to crash or are going

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<v Speaker 1>to need to drop their nukes in order to deal

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<v Speaker 1>with some sort of like engine trouble that is going

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<v Speaker 1>to happen. And it does, in fact happen, right, I'm

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<v Speaker 1>gonna guess people are aware that this has happened once

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<v Speaker 1>or twice, generally like a couple there was one off

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<v Speaker 1>like the coast of Spain. The reality is it happened constantly.

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<v Speaker 1>This happens so much more often than you would have

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<v Speaker 1>gett It's fucking shocking how many nukes we just straight

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<v Speaker 1>up lose. LeMay and his successor at the SAC General

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<v Speaker 1>Power considered it a necessity that the US always have

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<v Speaker 1>armed nuclear bombers in the air, and a consequence of

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<v Speaker 1>that is, of course, all these things getting lost. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>gonna provide you with two examples. Operation Reflex was an

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<v Speaker 1>ESSAC training mission to switch crews on ground alert every

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<v Speaker 1>twenty one days. This is kind of the start of

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<v Speaker 1>what allowed. Like, we always have a fleet of bombers

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<v Speaker 1>that are like six to fifteen minutes away from being

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<v Speaker 1>in the air. They have a nuke on them, they're

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<v Speaker 1>loaded up and fueled up on the tarmac. They have

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<v Speaker 1>a crew and a bunker nearby that can run onto

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<v Speaker 1>the plane and take off at a moment's notice. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>And we also have I think it's like ten or

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<v Speaker 1>eleven percent of those planes are flying with a bomb

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<v Speaker 1>in them at any given time. Right, That's what operates.

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<v Speaker 1>It starts as a testing plan to see if this

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<v Speaker 1>is feasible, and in July of nineteen fifty seven, we

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<v Speaker 1>make this like the SAC standard Plan each B forty

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<v Speaker 1>seven bomber flying out on reflex overseas or heading home

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<v Speaker 1>carried a six thousand pound four megaton Mk thirty nine

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<v Speaker 1>hydrogen bomb. These are these thermonuclear depth machines. That same month,

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<v Speaker 1>a B forty seven in Texas crashed, killing the four

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<v Speaker 1>man crew. The crash listed the bomber as part of

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<v Speaker 1>the emergency war plan load, but as Kini notes in

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<v Speaker 1>the book fifteen minutes, as of this writing, No nineteen

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<v Speaker 1>fifty seven bomber crash in Texas is included in any

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<v Speaker 1>official document disclosing accents evolving nuclear weapons. And there are

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<v Speaker 1>several of these where, well, we know that plane crashed,

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<v Speaker 1>and based on how it was coded, we know it

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<v Speaker 1>should have had a nuke on it, but they never

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<v Speaker 1>reported losing a nuke because they covered it up. So

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<v Speaker 1>this new presumably just blew up in Texas and they

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<v Speaker 1>kind of they covered it up.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, how often are they just being like, oh, whoops,

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<v Speaker 2>it fell off the back of the truck. All off

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<v Speaker 2>the back of the truck.

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<v Speaker 1>No, not off a truck. They're falling out a plane.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh so I mean, like, are they being stolen? Like

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<v Speaker 2>are they ever like.

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<v Speaker 1>Not that we know not that we know that there's

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<v Speaker 1>not evidence of that. What's actually happening is much dumber

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<v Speaker 1>than if they like someone stealing a nuke, and scarier,

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<v Speaker 1>to be honest. There are several examples like this, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>where a bomber that we know should have been loaded

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<v Speaker 1>with a nuke crashed and no report was ever made

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<v Speaker 1>of a nuke getting lost. But cover ups weren't always possible.

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<v Speaker 1>The same month that General Power takes over sac command

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<v Speaker 1>from LeMay, who goes on himself become the vice chief

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<v Speaker 1>of Staff and then Chief of Staff or the Air Force,

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<v Speaker 1>a C four cargo plane bound for an air base

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<v Speaker 1>in Morocco with three atom bombs encountered engine trouble between

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<v Speaker 1>Rehoboth Beach and Cape May, New Jersey. The pilot ejected

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<v Speaker 1>two out of three nuclear bombs on his plane to

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<v Speaker 1>lighten the load. These fall in the ocean, and the

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<v Speaker 1>Navy searches for the bombs and doesn't find any of

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<v Speaker 1>them ever, even though the ocean is just one hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and fifty feet deep at some parts of the potential

0:11:12.200 --> 0:11:15.360
<v Speaker 1>drop zone. So at like New Treasure questus, yes this

0:11:15.520 --> 0:11:18.680
<v Speaker 1>is dropped. There are folks listeners. If you live in

0:11:18.720 --> 0:11:21.280
<v Speaker 1>the Jersey area. You could be the owner of an

0:11:21.400 --> 0:11:24.360
<v Speaker 1>Mk five atom bomb if you just spend some time

0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:25.840
<v Speaker 1>swimming around in the ocean.

0:11:25.920 --> 0:11:26.080
<v Speaker 3>You know.

0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:29.600
<v Speaker 1>And once you've got a nuke for one thing, you're

0:11:29.640 --> 0:11:31.600
<v Speaker 1>not paying taxes anymore. I'll tell you that much, brother.

0:11:33.400 --> 0:11:35.280
<v Speaker 1>Can you got a lot of You got a lot

0:11:35.280 --> 0:11:37.079
<v Speaker 1>of leverage if you get your if you become a

0:11:37.160 --> 0:11:43.400
<v Speaker 1>nuclear armed state in and of yourself, it always goes well. Yeah,

0:11:43.440 --> 0:11:46.840
<v Speaker 1>so again, both three thousand pound Mk five bombs are missing.

0:11:46.840 --> 0:11:49.320
<v Speaker 1>To this day, these are never found. The number of

0:11:49.360 --> 0:11:53.600
<v Speaker 1>times this happens is fucking shocking. Nineteen fifty seven is

0:11:53.640 --> 0:11:55.559
<v Speaker 1>a key year for our story because it is the

0:11:55.679 --> 0:11:58.520
<v Speaker 1>year that we start being fifteen to thirty minutes away

0:11:58.520 --> 0:12:01.960
<v Speaker 1>from nuclear catastrophe at any given time. On August twenty six,

0:12:02.080 --> 0:12:06.440
<v Speaker 1>the Kremlin announces their first successful ICBM test. Their new missile,

0:12:06.480 --> 0:12:10.000
<v Speaker 1>the SS six Sapwood, could travel six thousand miles carrying

0:12:10.040 --> 0:12:13.800
<v Speaker 1>a warhead. Soviet premiere Nikita Krushchev bragged could make Europe

0:12:13.880 --> 0:12:17.520
<v Speaker 1>or the United States quote a veritable cemetery. A couple

0:12:17.520 --> 0:12:20.520
<v Speaker 1>of months later, in October, Spudnik entered orbit. If you're

0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:23.040
<v Speaker 1>wondering why that freaked out Americans so much. This is

0:12:23.040 --> 0:12:24.880
<v Speaker 1>one of those things I actually I have a little

0:12:24.920 --> 0:12:27.600
<v Speaker 1>more under empathy for, like why so many people because Oh,

0:12:27.640 --> 0:12:30.480
<v Speaker 1>because they also fired an ICBM right before that. Yeah,

0:12:30.600 --> 0:12:35.079
<v Speaker 1>that's a little scary, Okay, So they invented the ICBM,

0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:38.240
<v Speaker 1>they get they have a functional ICBM before we do.

0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:41.080
<v Speaker 1>They have a successful test before we do, not long before,

0:12:41.120 --> 0:12:43.920
<v Speaker 1>because between those two events. In September of nineteen fifty seven,

0:12:44.120 --> 0:12:48.480
<v Speaker 1>the u SO, after the Soviets launched their ICBM before Spudnik,

0:12:48.640 --> 0:12:52.679
<v Speaker 1>the US Air Force tests its first Atlas ICBM successfully.

0:12:53.120 --> 0:12:55.920
<v Speaker 1>Now it can't really hit things accurately yet, but the

0:12:55.960 --> 0:12:58.160
<v Speaker 1>idea is you're going to stick a thermonuclear bomb on

0:12:58.200 --> 0:13:01.200
<v Speaker 1>this thing, probably, So it doesn't really if you're off

0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:03.440
<v Speaker 1>by a couple by a mile or two even, Yeah,

0:13:03.440 --> 0:13:07.320
<v Speaker 1>but you'll do some damage. Probably. In November of that year,

0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:09.880
<v Speaker 1>General Power revealed to the public for the first time

0:13:09.920 --> 0:13:12.199
<v Speaker 1>that the Air Force was maintaining a fleet of ground

0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:15.280
<v Speaker 1>alert bombers in a permanent state of readiness. Eleven percent

0:13:15.280 --> 0:13:17.760
<v Speaker 1>of the SAC's fleet was always parked on a runway,

0:13:17.800 --> 0:13:19.560
<v Speaker 1>loaded with a live nuke, ready to take off in

0:13:19.600 --> 0:13:22.120
<v Speaker 1>less than fifteen minutes, and a certain number of bombers

0:13:22.160 --> 0:13:24.160
<v Speaker 1>were kept up in the air at all times when

0:13:24.200 --> 0:13:26.679
<v Speaker 1>they admitted they are bombed up and they don't carry

0:13:26.720 --> 0:13:27.800
<v Speaker 1>bows and arrows.

0:13:28.440 --> 0:13:29.960
<v Speaker 2>Bombed up, bombed up.

0:13:30.000 --> 0:13:33.079
<v Speaker 1>Maybe, Yeah, it sounds like he's because like he's kind

0:13:33.080 --> 0:13:37.079
<v Speaker 1>of horny for these things. Yeah, in this period after

0:13:37.120 --> 0:13:39.520
<v Speaker 1>the ice So the ICBMs exist now, but they're not

0:13:39.559 --> 0:13:41.559
<v Speaker 1>a viable weapons system yet. Right, We've had we have

0:13:41.600 --> 0:13:44.560
<v Speaker 1>our proof of concept, but we don't We don't immediately

0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:48.040
<v Speaker 1>go from testing an ICBM to having them ready to fire, right.

0:13:48.080 --> 0:13:49.800
<v Speaker 1>It takes a little bit of time. You know, that's

0:13:49.840 --> 0:13:54.480
<v Speaker 1>just science. Right, So during this kind of awkward inner

0:13:54.559 --> 0:13:57.920
<v Speaker 1>still period, the actual odds of an accidental nuclear war

0:13:57.960 --> 0:14:00.960
<v Speaker 1>are extremely low. For one reason. The only way to

0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:03.319
<v Speaker 1>deliver an atom bomb is by air, right, I mean,

0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:05.320
<v Speaker 1>you could drive it somewhere, set it off on the ground,

0:14:05.360 --> 0:14:07.880
<v Speaker 1>but really, like realistically you're going to be using like

0:14:07.920 --> 0:14:10.920
<v Speaker 1>a bomber or a tailler's you can't launch it across

0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:14.120
<v Speaker 1>continents yet, right, unless you're flying it. That means that

0:14:14.240 --> 0:14:17.120
<v Speaker 1>you could theoretically, if you send out a bomber fleet

0:14:17.200 --> 0:14:19.960
<v Speaker 1>to start a nuclear war, you could because you're in

0:14:20.040 --> 0:14:23.840
<v Speaker 1>contact with these guys, you could theoretically recall that bomber

0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:26.000
<v Speaker 1>fleet right up to the last moment. You can't do

0:14:26.080 --> 0:14:28.360
<v Speaker 1>that with ICBMs. People think you can. People think you

0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:30.800
<v Speaker 1>can do it with like the sub mounted nukes, we cannot.

0:14:31.000 --> 0:14:33.360
<v Speaker 1>It is not possible once they're launched there heading for

0:14:33.360 --> 0:14:36.560
<v Speaker 1>their targets, right, that's how these things work. But you

0:14:36.600 --> 0:14:39.200
<v Speaker 1>can recall bombers if you can reach them up until

0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:42.280
<v Speaker 1>the last minute, right now, if you can reach them

0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:45.000
<v Speaker 1>is a key part of this, because that presents a

0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:47.760
<v Speaker 1>conundrum to the SAC. This is the fucking late fifties.

0:14:48.640 --> 0:14:50.720
<v Speaker 1>Coms aren't as good as they're going to be. That

0:14:50.760 --> 0:14:53.080
<v Speaker 1>we're starting to figure out stuff that will allow us

0:14:53.120 --> 0:14:55.760
<v Speaker 1>to stay in regular contact, you know, in all sorts

0:14:55.760 --> 0:14:58.960
<v Speaker 1>of situations, but it's not nearly good enough for us

0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:01.840
<v Speaker 1>to gamble the survival of the human race on right.

0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:05.640
<v Speaker 1>And the SAC has another problem, which is that nobody

0:15:05.640 --> 0:15:08.440
<v Speaker 1>outside of their weird little death cult is comfortable yet

0:15:08.440 --> 0:15:10.880
<v Speaker 1>with the idea of nukes being sent off without a

0:15:10.880 --> 0:15:13.240
<v Speaker 1>way to recall them. And while radio code, you know,

0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:16.320
<v Speaker 1>it's just not there's not a great, perfect way to

0:15:16.360 --> 0:15:19.160
<v Speaker 1>guarantee you can reach these bombers. And that's really important.

0:15:19.680 --> 0:15:21.920
<v Speaker 1>And this brings us to one of the most interesting

0:15:23.000 --> 0:15:27.080
<v Speaker 1>innovations in nuclear war and it's honestly the simplest. This

0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:31.400
<v Speaker 1>doesn't require any technology whatsoever, and it's maybe it may

0:15:31.400 --> 0:15:33.800
<v Speaker 1>have saved the world. Right, we may all exist because

0:15:33.800 --> 0:15:38.560
<v Speaker 1>of this. It's called Project fail Safe now rather than

0:15:38.600 --> 0:15:42.000
<v Speaker 1>relying on technology which could fail. The way failsafe worked

0:15:42.040 --> 0:15:46.280
<v Speaker 1>is that all dispatched bombers were under permanent orders to

0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:49.960
<v Speaker 1>return without dropping their payloads, no matter what they were

0:15:50.080 --> 0:15:54.080
<v Speaker 1>ordered to do, unless they were transmitted to GO code. Right.

0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:57.920
<v Speaker 1>The innovation of fail safe isn't that a got This

0:15:58.000 --> 0:16:03.120
<v Speaker 1>is important. The go code does not trigger the bombing, right. Instead,

0:16:03.360 --> 0:16:07.240
<v Speaker 1>the default is in all instances, return home without bombing

0:16:07.440 --> 0:16:11.000
<v Speaker 1>unless you're given the code. And that's a meaningful distinction, right.

0:16:11.240 --> 0:16:13.760
<v Speaker 1>That means there's no room for a bomber public. Well,

0:16:13.880 --> 0:16:15.520
<v Speaker 1>they didn't give us the go code, but right over

0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:17.880
<v Speaker 1>the target, should we do it? No, you fly home

0:16:17.960 --> 0:16:21.120
<v Speaker 1>unless you get the code, right, yeah, And that's tech proof.

0:16:21.160 --> 0:16:23.560
<v Speaker 1>It doesn't matter if your coms are out right, and

0:16:23.600 --> 0:16:26.680
<v Speaker 1>that means the default assumption is we should err on

0:16:26.720 --> 0:16:28.720
<v Speaker 1>the side of not dropping the bombs.

0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:31.920
<v Speaker 2>Right. No, that seems so obvious in retrospect, but it

0:16:32.080 --> 0:16:34.640
<v Speaker 2>makes sense that that was like literally a technological development.

0:16:34.840 --> 0:16:36.720
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it was an It was a development by a

0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:40.720
<v Speaker 1>single dude at the Rand Corporation named Albert Wolstetter. He

0:16:40.880 --> 0:16:43.560
<v Speaker 1>visualized failsafe, and again you could argue this guy might

0:16:43.640 --> 0:16:44.800
<v Speaker 1>have saved all of humanity.

0:16:44.840 --> 0:16:45.520
<v Speaker 2>Was doing so.

0:16:47.080 --> 0:16:49.320
<v Speaker 1>Good idea. Thank you, Albert.

0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:53.280
<v Speaker 2>The opposite of a dead man's switch, you know, yeah, yeah,

0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:55.800
<v Speaker 2>it's a it's a I guess, a live man switch.

0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:59.720
<v Speaker 1>I don't know. Speaking of a dead man switched, I

0:16:59.800 --> 0:17:03.920
<v Speaker 1>have one that will launch a nuclear attack unless you

0:17:04.400 --> 0:17:07.760
<v Speaker 1>spend money on the products and services advertise on the show.

0:17:08.359 --> 0:17:17.760
<v Speaker 1>Oh boy, we're back. So we've just hit the point

0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:20.800
<v Speaker 1>where failsafe has been implemented and.

0:17:20.760 --> 0:17:22.560
<v Speaker 2>Which were fit on your knuckles. I'm just going to

0:17:22.600 --> 0:17:23.159
<v Speaker 2>point out.

0:17:23.080 --> 0:17:26.240
<v Speaker 1>Right, Oh actually, yeah, that's a pretty good idea. Yeah yeah,

0:17:26.280 --> 0:17:29.120
<v Speaker 1>I've been meaning to get a knuckle tattoo. So yeah,

0:17:29.359 --> 0:17:31.920
<v Speaker 1>we've now reduced the risk of some guys starting World

0:17:31.960 --> 0:17:34.080
<v Speaker 1>War three because the radio goes out right, which is

0:17:34.119 --> 0:17:37.280
<v Speaker 1>a good thing to do. Now, in February of nineteen

0:17:37.320 --> 0:17:40.240
<v Speaker 1>fifty eight, the Strategic Air Command has another nuclear error,

0:17:40.600 --> 0:17:42.880
<v Speaker 1>a bomber and a fighter wing in Florida. We're doing

0:17:42.920 --> 0:17:45.359
<v Speaker 1>a training mission which for some reason required a trio

0:17:45.400 --> 0:17:47.240
<v Speaker 1>of fighters to try and intercept a pair of B

0:17:47.359 --> 0:17:50.480
<v Speaker 1>forty seven bombers armed with actual one point six megaton

0:17:50.680 --> 0:17:54.280
<v Speaker 1>Mk fifteen nuclear bombs. One of these fighters fucked up

0:17:54.320 --> 0:17:57.080
<v Speaker 1>and crashed into one of the bombers, damaging its engines.

0:17:57.480 --> 0:17:59.760
<v Speaker 1>The bomber had to come in for an emergency landing,

0:17:59.800 --> 0:18:02.399
<v Speaker 1>but the nearest airfield was under construction, and to make

0:18:02.440 --> 0:18:04.480
<v Speaker 1>a long story short, the pilot was worried that when

0:18:04.560 --> 0:18:06.680
<v Speaker 1>landing they would crash into something that would send the

0:18:06.760 --> 0:18:09.920
<v Speaker 1>nuke in their bombay launching forward like a bullet into

0:18:09.960 --> 0:18:12.600
<v Speaker 1>the crew cabin. In order to protect the crew, the

0:18:12.640 --> 0:18:16.480
<v Speaker 1>pilot dropped a nuclear bomb somewhere over the Wasauce Sound,

0:18:16.600 --> 0:18:19.520
<v Speaker 1>east of Savannah, Georgia. It may have been two bombs.

0:18:19.520 --> 0:18:22.199
<v Speaker 1>It's a little unclear to me. These are never found.

0:18:22.359 --> 0:18:25.399
<v Speaker 1>This bomb is never found. It is theoretically still some

0:18:25.600 --> 0:18:27.400
<v Speaker 1>east east of Savannah to this day.

0:18:28.440 --> 0:18:31.280
<v Speaker 2>Oh my god, I'm gonna write terrible fiction about a

0:18:31.359 --> 0:18:33.160
<v Speaker 2>crew of people who go and find these things.

0:18:33.280 --> 0:18:35.280
<v Speaker 1>Go new Cutting, Let's go find up. Let's get us

0:18:35.280 --> 0:18:37.480
<v Speaker 1>a nuke yeah, yeah, we could be the we could

0:18:37.480 --> 0:18:40.399
<v Speaker 1>be at finally a nuclear armed podcast. This is this

0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:44.879
<v Speaker 1>is what podcasting has been missing. So it's obviously big

0:18:44.920 --> 0:18:47.920
<v Speaker 1>news that we dropped atomic bombs on our own Georgia,

0:18:48.000 --> 0:18:50.480
<v Speaker 1>not even the one overseas, and the good people of

0:18:50.480 --> 0:18:53.000
<v Speaker 1>that state expected the Air Force to recover the nuke.

0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:56.359
<v Speaker 1>A study of the Air Force press releases around this

0:18:56.440 --> 0:18:59.600
<v Speaker 1>matter is useful. Their first message denounced the jettisoning of

0:18:59.680 --> 0:19:02.240
<v Speaker 1>a portion of a nuclear weapon and added that no

0:19:02.280 --> 0:19:04.840
<v Speaker 1>one knew quote whether the nuclear device landed in the

0:19:04.880 --> 0:19:09.280
<v Speaker 1>sea or on land. Great, there's a chance some hillbilly

0:19:09.320 --> 0:19:11.879
<v Speaker 1>has just been passing this nuke down to his kids

0:19:11.920 --> 0:19:15.000
<v Speaker 1>for the last like, that's.

0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:16.439
<v Speaker 2>What I want. Now they'll be like, you take some

0:19:16.480 --> 0:19:20.399
<v Speaker 2>pride in our family. We are incular power. Yeah.

0:19:20.480 --> 0:19:23.000
<v Speaker 1>Now, don't don't touch it too much. I don't really

0:19:23.000 --> 0:19:23.679
<v Speaker 1>know how it works.

0:19:24.640 --> 0:19:24.920
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:19:25.000 --> 0:19:27.920
<v Speaker 1>Now, when they dropped these this bomb or bombs, both

0:19:27.960 --> 0:19:31.440
<v Speaker 1>pilots took coordinates down for where they thought they were

0:19:31.520 --> 0:19:34.479
<v Speaker 1>when they dropped it. But they both write down different

0:19:34.520 --> 0:19:37.399
<v Speaker 1>sets of coordinates, which is a real watermark for the

0:19:37.400 --> 0:19:41.200
<v Speaker 1>competency of our brave boys in the sac. After several

0:19:41.280 --> 0:19:43.440
<v Speaker 1>days of searching with no luck. The Air Force issued

0:19:43.440 --> 0:19:46.200
<v Speaker 1>another press release elaborating that the bomb had been carried

0:19:46.200 --> 0:19:51.080
<v Speaker 1>in transportable condition. This means nothing. The Air Force defined

0:19:51.160 --> 0:19:54.680
<v Speaker 1>that when asked what transportable condition means as a form

0:19:54.800 --> 0:19:58.800
<v Speaker 1>carried for safety reasons, which again means nothing. If you're

0:19:58.840 --> 0:20:02.000
<v Speaker 1>wondering what they might have been trying to avoid saying,

0:20:02.200 --> 0:20:05.480
<v Speaker 1>here's another excerpt from fifteen minutes. Those in Savannah made

0:20:05.520 --> 0:20:07.359
<v Speaker 1>little sense of this warding, but they took it to

0:20:07.400 --> 0:20:09.760
<v Speaker 1>mean that the weapon was perhaps disassembled or in crates,

0:20:09.840 --> 0:20:11.960
<v Speaker 1>or perhaps it shouldn't be considered a weapon at all.

0:20:12.240 --> 0:20:15.119
<v Speaker 1>The second press release, however, vague, nonetheless seems to have

0:20:15.119 --> 0:20:17.920
<v Speaker 1>had the intended effect. It was calming. But then the

0:20:18.000 --> 0:20:21.320
<v Speaker 1>Navy announced that another ship, the USS Bowers, had arrived.

0:20:21.520 --> 0:20:23.760
<v Speaker 1>The Bowers brought with it fourteen more divers and men

0:20:23.800 --> 0:20:27.080
<v Speaker 1>from the Explosive Ordnance Disposal Unit in Cedar Keys, Florida.

0:20:27.280 --> 0:20:29.560
<v Speaker 1>The Air Force explained the stepped up activity by saying

0:20:29.560 --> 0:20:32.880
<v Speaker 1>that the ejective component was a very expensive piece of equipment.

0:20:33.119 --> 0:20:34.640
<v Speaker 1>So the Air Force is like, ah, it's not even

0:20:34.640 --> 0:20:36.639
<v Speaker 1>a real bomb. We are sending the bomb squad in

0:20:36.680 --> 0:20:39.639
<v Speaker 1>though there the bomb squad is actually absolutely looking for

0:20:39.680 --> 0:20:43.320
<v Speaker 1>this thing. Trust, this not a functional bomb. Definitely, we

0:20:43.359 --> 0:20:46.359
<v Speaker 1>do fly exclusively with functional bombs permissions like this, but

0:20:46.400 --> 0:20:49.000
<v Speaker 1>this one isn't. Right, You're good, Yeah, no, right, yeah,

0:20:49.080 --> 0:20:50.760
<v Speaker 1>I mean and they did sometimes they would have like

0:20:50.800 --> 0:20:53.119
<v Speaker 1>the physile material outside of the bomb so that when

0:20:53.119 --> 0:20:55.679
<v Speaker 1>they dropped it, they're just but that didn't happen in

0:20:55.720 --> 0:20:57.399
<v Speaker 1>a lot of cases, and we don't know that it

0:20:57.440 --> 0:20:58.280
<v Speaker 1>happened in this case.

0:20:58.560 --> 0:21:02.199
<v Speaker 2>What is their argument for, Like, clearly a dummy that

0:21:02.680 --> 0:21:06.760
<v Speaker 2>is exactly the same size, no weight, is the only

0:21:06.800 --> 0:21:10.240
<v Speaker 2>thing that makes sense. I can't understand the argument.

0:21:10.680 --> 0:21:13.760
<v Speaker 1>Lemayan powers want them to be training with real nukes,

0:21:13.840 --> 0:21:16.280
<v Speaker 1>and they want them to be testing those nukes regularly

0:21:16.359 --> 0:21:18.600
<v Speaker 1>to make sure they will go off at a moment's notice.

0:21:19.920 --> 0:21:21.680
<v Speaker 1>That is very important to them.

0:21:21.760 --> 0:21:23.560
<v Speaker 2>I'm going to invite him to a paintball game with

0:21:23.840 --> 0:21:25.120
<v Speaker 2>AR fifteen, right, what.

0:21:25.440 --> 0:21:28.560
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, it's crazy, it's crazy, But this is like,

0:21:28.680 --> 0:21:32.000
<v Speaker 1>there's this is super important to both LeMay and Power. Right,

0:21:32.040 --> 0:21:33.919
<v Speaker 1>we're kind of in this period where they're transitioning at

0:21:33.920 --> 0:21:37.440
<v Speaker 1>the SAC So by this point it should be clear

0:21:37.480 --> 0:21:40.280
<v Speaker 1>to you we don't know and never will know how

0:21:40.320 --> 0:21:46.159
<v Speaker 1>many nuclear bombs are government lost on US soil. But

0:21:46.280 --> 0:21:49.680
<v Speaker 1>there's a couple at least just start of lying around.

0:21:50.119 --> 0:21:54.360
<v Speaker 1>So again, folks, get your metal detectors out. Yeah, yeah,

0:21:54.720 --> 0:21:58.080
<v Speaker 1>have some fun with it. What could go wrong?

0:21:58.280 --> 0:22:00.440
<v Speaker 2>That's what we call our scavenger.

0:22:00.240 --> 0:22:03.439
<v Speaker 1>What could go wrong? No, you asked earlier about stealing

0:22:03.520 --> 0:22:07.320
<v Speaker 1>nuclear weapons, and I don't. I've seen no evidence that

0:22:07.320 --> 0:22:10.879
<v Speaker 1>that happened. But it could have very easily. It was

0:22:10.920 --> 0:22:14.760
<v Speaker 1>for a long time startlingly easy to hijack a nuclear weapon.

0:22:15.760 --> 0:22:18.679
<v Speaker 1>The only thing stopping it from happening, if indeed it

0:22:18.800 --> 0:22:20.680
<v Speaker 1>was stopped from happening, is that no one was ever

0:22:20.720 --> 0:22:23.720
<v Speaker 1>crazy enough to try. In her book Nuclear War, Annie

0:22:23.800 --> 0:22:26.480
<v Speaker 1>Jacobson tells a story about a visit a Los Alamos

0:22:26.480 --> 0:22:30.520
<v Speaker 1>scientist named Harold Agnew paid to NATO base in Europe

0:22:30.520 --> 0:22:33.119
<v Speaker 1>in December of nineteen fifty nine. This was one of

0:22:33.160 --> 0:22:35.520
<v Speaker 1>the bases where US nukes were in NATO hands, as

0:22:35.520 --> 0:22:39.000
<v Speaker 1>they are to this day. Jacobson writes, quote, during the

0:22:39.040 --> 0:22:41.240
<v Speaker 1>trip to the NATO Bass, Agnew noticed something that made

0:22:41.280 --> 0:22:44.760
<v Speaker 1>him wary. I observed four f eighty four f aircraft

0:22:44.880 --> 0:22:46.800
<v Speaker 1>sitting on the end of a runway. Each was carrying

0:22:46.880 --> 0:22:49.359
<v Speaker 1>two Mark seven nuclear gravity bombs. He wrote in a

0:22:49.400 --> 0:22:52.480
<v Speaker 1>document declassified in twenty twenty three. What this meant was

0:22:52.520 --> 0:22:55.080
<v Speaker 1>that custody of the Mark sevens was under the watchful

0:22:55.119 --> 0:22:57.720
<v Speaker 1>eye of one very young US Army private armed with

0:22:57.760 --> 0:23:00.920
<v Speaker 1>an M one rifle with eight rounds of ammunition. Agnew

0:23:00.960 --> 0:23:04.200
<v Speaker 1>told his colleagues the only safeguard against unauthorized use of

0:23:04.200 --> 0:23:07.199
<v Speaker 1>a nuclear bomb was this single gi surrounded by a

0:23:07.280 --> 0:23:10.160
<v Speaker 1>large number of foreign troops on foreign territory, with thousands

0:23:10.160 --> 0:23:12.960
<v Speaker 1>of Soviet troops just miles away. Maybe a bad idea,

0:23:13.040 --> 0:23:14.919
<v Speaker 1>Like I feel like I've got a decent chance of

0:23:14.920 --> 0:23:18.080
<v Speaker 1>stealing a nuke from that guy, right, I one eighteen

0:23:18.160 --> 0:23:23.879
<v Speaker 1>year old with a rifle like like those odds, And

0:23:23.960 --> 0:23:26.080
<v Speaker 1>this is all part of the whole. All that matters

0:23:26.119 --> 0:23:29.200
<v Speaker 1>is bombers. All that matters is the nukes, right Because

0:23:30.119 --> 0:23:32.040
<v Speaker 1>one of the things that guys like LeMay and Power

0:23:32.080 --> 0:23:33.480
<v Speaker 1>are doing that the ESAC is doing is like, we

0:23:33.480 --> 0:23:35.119
<v Speaker 1>don't need to be putting money in the infantry. We

0:23:35.119 --> 0:23:37.200
<v Speaker 1>don't need to have like dudes on the ground doing

0:23:37.200 --> 0:23:40.399
<v Speaker 1>stuff like watching our nukes and planes. That's a waste

0:23:40.440 --> 0:23:43.359
<v Speaker 1>of resources. More nukes, more planes, less guards.

0:23:44.840 --> 0:23:47.880
<v Speaker 2>This is like how they're treating AI like. It's just like, yes,

0:23:47.920 --> 0:23:50.400
<v Speaker 2>we don't need anything else, Yes we just need this.

0:23:50.480 --> 0:23:53.600
<v Speaker 1>No guardrails, no governors, make it illegal to put any

0:23:53.600 --> 0:23:57.399
<v Speaker 1>safety measures in Fuck it now. After returning home, this

0:23:57.520 --> 0:23:59.520
<v Speaker 1>is actually how we get the nuclear football. It takes

0:23:59.520 --> 0:24:01.600
<v Speaker 1>a while, but this is what starts that process because

0:24:01.600 --> 0:24:04.480
<v Speaker 1>once he gets home, having this startling moment, Agnew pairs

0:24:04.520 --> 0:24:07.120
<v Speaker 1>up with an engineer at Sandia Laboratories and they try

0:24:07.160 --> 0:24:09.760
<v Speaker 1>to figure out how to insert an electronic lock into

0:24:09.800 --> 0:24:12.720
<v Speaker 1>nuclear weapons that would prevent a rando from arming a

0:24:12.760 --> 0:24:15.800
<v Speaker 1>bomb they gained access to. This eventually led to a

0:24:15.880 --> 0:24:18.760
<v Speaker 1>lock and coded switch, which required a three digit code

0:24:18.760 --> 0:24:20.840
<v Speaker 1>to be entered to arm the weapon. It would take

0:24:20.920 --> 0:24:23.840
<v Speaker 1>several years until the Kennedy administration for the President to

0:24:23.960 --> 0:24:26.640
<v Speaker 1>actually order these locks placed on bombs. Right, But that's

0:24:26.680 --> 0:24:29.640
<v Speaker 1>where this leads, right, that's why we get the nuclear

0:24:29.640 --> 0:24:31.959
<v Speaker 1>football in the system we have now where you have

0:24:32.000 --> 0:24:35.000
<v Speaker 1>to use codes to activate the ability to deploy these weapons.

0:24:35.040 --> 0:24:35.240
<v Speaker 3>Right.

0:24:35.480 --> 0:24:38.600
<v Speaker 1>That starts with Agnew realizing like, oh, fuck, someone can

0:24:38.680 --> 0:24:42.159
<v Speaker 1>just take these There's like a kid standing in a

0:24:42.200 --> 0:24:48.960
<v Speaker 1>field with a rifle and there's four nukes. Shit, eight

0:24:49.000 --> 0:24:51.720
<v Speaker 1>fucking bullets. At least give him another couple of clips.

0:24:51.840 --> 0:24:56.840
<v Speaker 2>Jesus Christ, totally send a unit of people you hate first,

0:24:56.840 --> 0:24:57.280
<v Speaker 2>and then.

0:24:57.440 --> 0:25:00.440
<v Speaker 1>Jesus, yes, send more guys. Fuck it, there had to

0:25:00.520 --> 0:25:04.240
<v Speaker 1>be more eighteen year olds. My god, I'm getting ahead

0:25:04.240 --> 0:25:06.960
<v Speaker 1>of myself here. Because we don't immediately put the it

0:25:07.000 --> 0:25:09.280
<v Speaker 1>takes some time to figure out how to build these locks. Right,

0:25:10.240 --> 0:25:12.959
<v Speaker 1>There are two key inventions from the late nineteen fifties

0:25:12.960 --> 0:25:16.240
<v Speaker 1>that help set the doomsday device into motion. The first

0:25:16.280 --> 0:25:18.800
<v Speaker 1>is what we'll spend the least time discussing in these episodes,

0:25:18.840 --> 0:25:21.200
<v Speaker 1>and it's the distributed system of radar stations in the

0:25:21.200 --> 0:25:23.720
<v Speaker 1>middle of the ocean and other inaccessible points that first

0:25:23.760 --> 0:25:27.560
<v Speaker 1>provided us with an effective early warning system of Soviet attack. Obviously,

0:25:27.560 --> 0:25:29.760
<v Speaker 1>the Soviets are building their own versions of this too, right,

0:25:29.840 --> 0:25:33.280
<v Speaker 1>but the early warning systems right, These aren't a major

0:25:33.359 --> 0:25:36.000
<v Speaker 1>topic of these episodes, because just wanting to know if

0:25:36.040 --> 0:25:38.359
<v Speaker 1>someone's about to murder you isn't really fucked up in

0:25:38.359 --> 0:25:41.840
<v Speaker 1>the same way as, for example, building twelve thousand nuclear weapons.

0:25:42.040 --> 0:25:44.320
<v Speaker 1>But all of these early warning systems are flawed and

0:25:44.359 --> 0:25:46.840
<v Speaker 1>capable of generating false positives, and in fact, we have

0:25:47.040 --> 0:25:51.120
<v Speaker 1>both us and the USSR have several near nuclear catastrophes

0:25:51.440 --> 0:25:54.879
<v Speaker 1>because we get false positives, like one of these radar

0:25:54.920 --> 0:25:57.960
<v Speaker 1>installations thinks it sees missiles coming in or thinks it

0:25:58.000 --> 0:26:00.879
<v Speaker 1>sees bombers coming in, and its problems.

0:26:00.560 --> 0:26:03.760
<v Speaker 2>Right, and it's like geese or some shit, right right, right.

0:26:04.240 --> 0:26:06.720
<v Speaker 1>All these early warning systems are flawed, you know that,

0:26:07.200 --> 0:26:10.040
<v Speaker 1>And that's still the case to this day, right, And

0:26:10.359 --> 0:26:13.280
<v Speaker 1>so it's both understandable that you'd want to have these,

0:26:13.640 --> 0:26:15.520
<v Speaker 1>but also the fact that these are flawed, and the

0:26:15.560 --> 0:26:19.879
<v Speaker 1>fact that our strategy increasingly becomes launch on warn moves

0:26:19.920 --> 0:26:23.520
<v Speaker 1>us a lot closer to midnight right. So, by far,

0:26:23.720 --> 0:26:26.680
<v Speaker 1>the most influential move from an approaching the apocalypse point

0:26:26.680 --> 0:26:29.720
<v Speaker 1>of view was the deployment of ICBMs. These made it

0:26:29.760 --> 0:26:32.399
<v Speaker 1>possible to launch nuclear weapons in a way that could

0:26:32.440 --> 0:26:36.399
<v Speaker 1>not be recalled. There was and is no fail safe

0:26:36.480 --> 0:26:40.480
<v Speaker 1>for ICBMs. The idea that we can cancel them is

0:26:40.600 --> 0:26:44.040
<v Speaker 1>just disinformation. If we or anyone else launches an ICBM,

0:26:44.280 --> 0:26:47.040
<v Speaker 1>they are almost impossible to stop. You can only really

0:26:47.040 --> 0:26:49.359
<v Speaker 1>stop them by shooting them down, and we're terrible at it.

0:26:49.520 --> 0:26:53.679
<v Speaker 1>Right there, we have this thing, the bullet basically that

0:26:53.720 --> 0:26:56.479
<v Speaker 1>we use to shoot them down and it works about

0:26:56.480 --> 0:26:59.080
<v Speaker 1>half the time in tests, and we have like forty

0:26:59.080 --> 0:27:03.080
<v Speaker 1>four of them.

0:27:03.320 --> 0:27:06.120
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, i'd want more magazines than like, i'd probably want

0:27:06.119 --> 0:27:08.560
<v Speaker 2>to bullets is enough if it's that's not a lot

0:27:08.760 --> 0:27:11.640
<v Speaker 2>you have to stop the end of the world. Here's

0:27:11.640 --> 0:27:13.280
<v Speaker 2>a magazine and a half of bullets.

0:27:13.280 --> 0:27:16.040
<v Speaker 1>The enemy it has three thousand missiles or something like that.

0:27:16.320 --> 0:27:19.159
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so good luck private.

0:27:20.040 --> 0:27:22.920
<v Speaker 1>Now our first ICBM is kind of a piece of shit.

0:27:23.000 --> 0:27:24.960
<v Speaker 1>The only good thing about the Atlas C, which is

0:27:25.000 --> 0:27:28.280
<v Speaker 1>declared operational in September of nineteen fifty nine, is that

0:27:28.359 --> 0:27:30.600
<v Speaker 1>it can't be kept fueled for long periods of time.

0:27:30.880 --> 0:27:33.119
<v Speaker 1>It has to be fueled right before launch, something to

0:27:33.160 --> 0:27:34.920
<v Speaker 1>do with the kind of fuel that they're using right,

0:27:35.640 --> 0:27:37.960
<v Speaker 1>which means that you can't have these things ready to

0:27:38.000 --> 0:27:39.720
<v Speaker 1>go in a matter of minutes, you know, like you

0:27:39.840 --> 0:27:43.159
<v Speaker 1>need more lead time to do that. Atlases are stored

0:27:43.160 --> 0:27:46.199
<v Speaker 1>above ground. Also, we're starting to build hardened silos, that

0:27:46.320 --> 0:27:49.160
<v Speaker 1>is the plan, but those are not constructed yet. US

0:27:49.280 --> 0:27:51.440
<v Speaker 1>war planners were worried that the USSR would be able

0:27:51.480 --> 0:27:54.040
<v Speaker 1>to see our arsenal because we've got these ICBMs just

0:27:54.119 --> 0:27:57.440
<v Speaker 1>parked out like on bases and stuff, and they are

0:27:57.480 --> 0:28:00.280
<v Speaker 1>the Soviets are a They have you know, survey lens

0:28:00.320 --> 0:28:02.119
<v Speaker 1>and stuff. They are able to see them. But this

0:28:02.200 --> 0:28:06.119
<v Speaker 1>also causes another near calamity because the Soviets don't assume

0:28:06.119 --> 0:28:07.840
<v Speaker 1>that we just have these things parked in the open

0:28:07.880 --> 0:28:10.600
<v Speaker 1>because we're not finished building silos. They assume we had

0:28:10.640 --> 0:28:12.239
<v Speaker 1>them in the open because we plan to use them

0:28:12.240 --> 0:28:15.639
<v Speaker 1>as a first strike weapon, right right, So this is

0:28:15.680 --> 0:28:20.000
<v Speaker 1>another thing that like ramps up the paranoia between everybody

0:28:20.200 --> 0:28:22.679
<v Speaker 1>because the Atlas was such a shit weapon system and

0:28:22.720 --> 0:28:25.520
<v Speaker 1>it is a bad ICBM. By the nineteen fifty nine,

0:28:25.560 --> 0:28:27.800
<v Speaker 1>the US was already hard at work at its replacement,

0:28:28.000 --> 0:28:31.080
<v Speaker 1>the Minuteman. This was a missile with a stable fuel

0:28:31.119 --> 0:28:33.640
<v Speaker 1>mixture that could be stored for long periods of time

0:28:33.720 --> 0:28:36.439
<v Speaker 1>and launch ready conditions, so you can have a minute

0:28:36.440 --> 0:28:38.120
<v Speaker 1>man ready to fire. And in fact, it's called a

0:28:38.120 --> 0:28:40.280
<v Speaker 1>minute man because you can literally from the moment you

0:28:40.280 --> 0:28:41.840
<v Speaker 1>get the order, you can have it in the air

0:28:41.840 --> 0:28:46.520
<v Speaker 1>in a minute or less. Right again, they're just starting

0:28:46.640 --> 0:28:49.760
<v Speaker 1>to explore this technology. This is very new and they

0:28:49.760 --> 0:28:52.520
<v Speaker 1>don't have the kinks out right, which is a problem

0:28:52.600 --> 0:28:54.680
<v Speaker 1>because they're going to be immediately putting nukes on these

0:28:54.680 --> 0:28:59.080
<v Speaker 1>things and putting them underground. So there's a whole aspect

0:28:59.120 --> 0:29:00.560
<v Speaker 1>of they have to figure out. None of this is

0:29:00.600 --> 0:29:03.280
<v Speaker 1>immediately obvious, right, how this is going to work, how

0:29:03.400 --> 0:29:05.920
<v Speaker 1>nuclear silos are going to work, how our warning system

0:29:05.920 --> 0:29:08.000
<v Speaker 1>will work, how these things will be triggered to fire

0:29:08.080 --> 0:29:10.680
<v Speaker 1>under what conditions? Right, It is important to remember there's

0:29:10.720 --> 0:29:14.040
<v Speaker 1>no locks on these missiles yet, right, So every minute

0:29:14.120 --> 0:29:18.760
<v Speaker 1>man is stored launch ready and every minute on silo

0:29:19.880 --> 0:29:22.120
<v Speaker 1>no locks at all. Right, Well, there's a lock in

0:29:22.120 --> 0:29:25.760
<v Speaker 1>that in order to fire it. So you have you

0:29:25.800 --> 0:29:28.400
<v Speaker 1>have like these two man teams and like a command bunker,

0:29:29.000 --> 0:29:32.320
<v Speaker 1>and each of these two man teams can launch ten missiles, right,

0:29:32.320 --> 0:29:34.440
<v Speaker 1>that are each held in separate silos that are like

0:29:34.480 --> 0:29:36.480
<v Speaker 1>a decent distance from each other. So you can't stop

0:29:36.480 --> 0:29:38.200
<v Speaker 1>them all if you nuke them, right, if you nuke

0:29:38.240 --> 0:29:41.520
<v Speaker 1>the silos, that's one of the reasons. So each two

0:29:41.560 --> 0:29:44.960
<v Speaker 1>man team, if they if both men turn a key

0:29:45.000 --> 0:29:47.880
<v Speaker 1>at the same time, it will fire the missile. Right,

0:29:48.360 --> 0:29:50.840
<v Speaker 1>And then as we'll talk about the it will start

0:29:50.880 --> 0:29:53.160
<v Speaker 1>a process of firing all of the other missiles. So

0:29:53.200 --> 0:29:58.440
<v Speaker 1>that means two guys have the ability if they both

0:29:58.440 --> 0:30:02.200
<v Speaker 1>decide to turn a key to fire ten nuclear missiles

0:30:02.520 --> 0:30:04.520
<v Speaker 1>across the world into Russia.

0:30:04.880 --> 0:30:07.280
<v Speaker 2>Right, yeah, or one guy who like, are they in

0:30:07.320 --> 0:30:08.880
<v Speaker 2>the same place? Or the keys next week show the

0:30:08.960 --> 0:30:10.520
<v Speaker 2>like in movies because in which guys it's like that's

0:30:10.600 --> 0:30:12.360
<v Speaker 2>or one guy beats up his front.

0:30:12.440 --> 0:30:14.480
<v Speaker 1>That's a great that's a great point you brought up,

0:30:14.520 --> 0:30:16.600
<v Speaker 1>because the Air Force did consider this, right that this

0:30:16.680 --> 0:30:18.680
<v Speaker 1>is an immediate problem as soon as they start planning this.

0:30:18.720 --> 0:30:20.680
<v Speaker 1>What if a crazy person winds up in a silo,

0:30:20.720 --> 0:30:22.360
<v Speaker 1>would he just be able to start World War three

0:30:22.360 --> 0:30:24.600
<v Speaker 1>on his own? And the answer is no, because the

0:30:24.640 --> 0:30:26.560
<v Speaker 1>Air Force comes up with a brilliant deterrent to that

0:30:26.640 --> 0:30:27.280
<v Speaker 1>kind of behavior.

0:30:27.320 --> 0:30:27.720
<v Speaker 3>Margaret.

0:30:28.080 --> 0:30:31.200
<v Speaker 1>Both guys in the silo have guns and they're separated

0:30:31.200 --> 0:30:38.440
<v Speaker 1>from bulletproof glass, so they're just ready to go and say, yeah,

0:30:38.560 --> 0:30:40.720
<v Speaker 1>this way, one guy can't threaten to shoot the other

0:30:40.720 --> 0:30:42.640
<v Speaker 1>guy if he doesn't launch a missng right, Like, that's

0:30:42.680 --> 0:30:44.720
<v Speaker 1>literally the plan is like we'll give both guns and

0:30:44.720 --> 0:30:46.960
<v Speaker 1>put them behind bulletprook glass. It's fine.

0:30:47.040 --> 0:30:50.440
<v Speaker 2>Also, it's like people can hot wire cars, right, this

0:30:50.520 --> 0:30:52.520
<v Speaker 2>is an electrical system on some level.

0:30:52.600 --> 0:30:55.520
<v Speaker 1>Oh, it's so much worse than that, Margaret.

0:30:55.800 --> 0:30:58.280
<v Speaker 2>Okay, I feel like you could probably figure out a

0:30:58.280 --> 0:31:02.240
<v Speaker 2>way to give the positives signal over this electrical wire.

0:31:03.120 --> 0:31:04.720
<v Speaker 1>It's good that you bring that up. That's what we're

0:31:04.720 --> 0:31:06.440
<v Speaker 1>going to be talking about a lot of the rest

0:31:06.440 --> 0:31:09.040
<v Speaker 1>of this episode, because this is so much worse than

0:31:09.080 --> 0:31:13.040
<v Speaker 1>you're guessing. So another issue with the Minuteman program is

0:31:13.080 --> 0:31:16.560
<v Speaker 1>that because of some errors and how they construct this thing,

0:31:16.840 --> 0:31:20.640
<v Speaker 1>they basically make what is potentially an automatic doomsdate device.

0:31:21.200 --> 0:31:24.240
<v Speaker 1>This is not known by Air Force planners when they

0:31:24.280 --> 0:31:28.000
<v Speaker 1>start putting this stuff out and constructing these silos and

0:31:28.000 --> 0:31:29.480
<v Speaker 1>putting out the plans of how they're going to use it,

0:31:29.520 --> 0:31:31.360
<v Speaker 1>because they don't like thinking about this sort of thing.

0:31:31.680 --> 0:31:34.440
<v Speaker 1>We only know about the immediate, the initial problems with

0:31:34.480 --> 0:31:37.640
<v Speaker 1>the Minuteman system because of a confessional that was written

0:31:37.640 --> 0:31:39.720
<v Speaker 1>in two thousand and eight by one of the architects

0:31:39.760 --> 0:31:43.640
<v Speaker 1>of our nuclear war infrastructure, John H. Rubel, and Rubel

0:31:43.840 --> 0:31:46.520
<v Speaker 1>is he's both a hero and a victim in this story.

0:31:46.560 --> 0:31:48.320
<v Speaker 1>He's one of these guys who may have saved all

0:31:48.360 --> 0:31:50.240
<v Speaker 1>of our lives because of the story about to tell,

0:31:50.440 --> 0:31:53.720
<v Speaker 1>but he also is an integral part of building this system.

0:31:54.040 --> 0:31:56.760
<v Speaker 1>Born in nineteen twenty to a wealthy Jewish German family

0:31:56.800 --> 0:31:59.640
<v Speaker 1>in Chicago. Rubelle moved to Los Angeles as a kid

0:31:59.680 --> 0:32:03.160
<v Speaker 1>after his father died. He graduated as an engineer from Caltech.

0:32:03.200 --> 0:32:06.240
<v Speaker 1>In nineteen forty two, his older brother died in action

0:32:06.360 --> 0:32:08.640
<v Speaker 1>fighting the Nazis, and Rebel was inspired to do his

0:32:08.680 --> 0:32:11.000
<v Speaker 1>bit for the war by moving to Schenectady with his

0:32:11.080 --> 0:32:14.320
<v Speaker 1>wife and becoming a junior engineer at GOE. After the war,

0:32:14.360 --> 0:32:16.880
<v Speaker 1>he moved back to Los Angeles to work for Lockheed Martin.

0:32:17.280 --> 0:32:20.360
<v Speaker 1>By nineteen fifty six, Rubel was a successful executives at

0:32:20.440 --> 0:32:24.880
<v Speaker 1>Hughes Electronics, directing their avionics business. That's Howard Hughes's company right.

0:32:25.280 --> 0:32:27.800
<v Speaker 1>He was featured in an ad by his employer which

0:32:27.800 --> 0:32:31.320
<v Speaker 1>described him as America's new kind of man. This meant

0:32:31.360 --> 0:32:33.640
<v Speaker 1>he was an expert and a successful professional in a

0:32:33.640 --> 0:32:36.320
<v Speaker 1>field that had not existed just a couple years earlier,

0:32:36.480 --> 0:32:40.040
<v Speaker 1>defense electronics. And from that ad at Hughes, we have

0:32:40.080 --> 0:32:41.960
<v Speaker 1>twenty seven hundred of these men in our research and

0:32:42.000 --> 0:32:45.120
<v Speaker 1>development laboratories, men like John H. Rubell, brought together from

0:32:45.120 --> 0:32:47.280
<v Speaker 1>all over the country to solve urgent new problems of

0:32:47.360 --> 0:32:50.440
<v Speaker 1>national defense. They have already successfully carried out developments that

0:32:50.520 --> 0:32:53.120
<v Speaker 1>rank among the most formidable scientific achievements of our time,

0:32:53.360 --> 0:32:55.080
<v Speaker 1>and the work they have done is so basic, it

0:32:55.200 --> 0:32:58.160
<v Speaker 1>is already contributing vitally to the peaceful use of electronics.

0:32:58.760 --> 0:33:00.400
<v Speaker 1>And Soviey's going to show you the ad just because

0:33:00.400 --> 0:33:02.240
<v Speaker 1>I want everyone watching the video to see what a

0:33:02.320 --> 0:33:04.200
<v Speaker 1>thirty six year old man looked like in the mid

0:33:04.320 --> 0:33:10.000
<v Speaker 1>nineteen fifties. Look at those crows feet. That's what you

0:33:10.080 --> 0:33:14.520
<v Speaker 1>get when you're just consuming led every day, just puffing

0:33:14.520 --> 0:33:19.719
<v Speaker 1>it right off the back of a car. It's beautiful stuff. Wow. Yeah.

0:33:19.920 --> 0:33:22.720
<v Speaker 1>So anyway, three years after this photo was taken, in

0:33:22.760 --> 0:33:25.720
<v Speaker 1>early nineteen fifty nine, Rubel left Hughes Aircraft to become

0:33:25.760 --> 0:33:28.800
<v Speaker 1>the Assistant Director of Research and Engineering for Strategic Weapons

0:33:28.840 --> 0:33:31.880
<v Speaker 1>over at the Pentagon. He would receive several promotions over

0:33:31.880 --> 0:33:34.760
<v Speaker 1>the next four years, becoming the sole Deputy and Assistant

0:33:34.800 --> 0:33:37.920
<v Speaker 1>Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering in nineteen sixty one.

0:33:38.040 --> 0:33:42.120
<v Speaker 1>He is a very highly placed civilian within our military

0:33:42.600 --> 0:33:46.840
<v Speaker 1>research and defense infrastructure. Right This rapid advance was because

0:33:46.840 --> 0:33:48.720
<v Speaker 1>he was the only guy at the Pentagon who was

0:33:48.720 --> 0:33:50.840
<v Speaker 1>at all concerned about whether or not we might be

0:33:50.840 --> 0:33:54.240
<v Speaker 1>about to kill the whole planet accidentally. In nineteen fifty nine,

0:33:54.320 --> 0:33:57.440
<v Speaker 1>he starts sitting down for presentations by the Air Force,

0:33:57.680 --> 0:34:00.360
<v Speaker 1>because the Air Force, as they're getting ready to deploy

0:34:00.400 --> 0:34:02.800
<v Speaker 1>the Minute Man, they have this missile designed, and they

0:34:02.840 --> 0:34:06.920
<v Speaker 1>have these silos under construction, but they're not operational yet.

0:34:07.120 --> 0:34:08.839
<v Speaker 1>And so the Air Force is sitting down with high

0:34:08.920 --> 0:34:12.560
<v Speaker 1>ranking civilian DoD employees and explaining all their different nuclear

0:34:12.560 --> 0:34:17.080
<v Speaker 1>retaliation systems, including Minuteman. According to Rubel, he has conversations

0:34:17.080 --> 0:34:20.480
<v Speaker 1>with a number of military officers and he comes to

0:34:20.600 --> 0:34:24.040
<v Speaker 1>realize that their primary fear is a fatal surprise attack,

0:34:24.320 --> 0:34:28.720
<v Speaker 1>right and if an adversary again. The logic the military

0:34:28.760 --> 0:34:31.280
<v Speaker 1>has is that if an adversary thinks they can survive

0:34:32.600 --> 0:34:35.239
<v Speaker 1>launching a surprise attack against us, they might do it.

0:34:35.400 --> 0:34:37.400
<v Speaker 1>So the only way to avoid a nuclear war is

0:34:37.440 --> 0:34:39.960
<v Speaker 1>to have quote first strike capability and the way to

0:34:40.160 --> 0:34:46.040
<v Speaker 1>use it aka launch on warning quote from Rubel's piece. Consider, however,

0:34:46.120 --> 0:34:50.640
<v Speaker 1>launch on warning almost necessitates an automated response. The electronic

0:34:50.680 --> 0:34:53.359
<v Speaker 1>warning signal itself in the scenario would trigger our first

0:34:53.400 --> 0:34:55.160
<v Speaker 1>strike missiles, many of them ready to go in a

0:34:55.200 --> 0:34:57.719
<v Speaker 1>minute or so. The will to use the strategy would

0:34:57.719 --> 0:35:02.040
<v Speaker 1>require no high level decision making or intervaent. Now, fuck,

0:35:02.200 --> 0:35:05.840
<v Speaker 1>this is extremely dangerous. And this is the thing that

0:35:05.960 --> 0:35:08.719
<v Speaker 1>leads to the minute Man. Right, And when Rubel talks

0:35:08.719 --> 0:35:10.880
<v Speaker 1>about the minute Man, he's referring to both a single

0:35:10.960 --> 0:35:13.440
<v Speaker 1>missile and quote to the aggregate of more than a

0:35:13.520 --> 0:35:16.160
<v Speaker 1>thousand of them, comprising a system of missiles and control

0:35:16.239 --> 0:35:18.880
<v Speaker 1>centers spread across hundreds of miles of prairie lands in

0:35:18.920 --> 0:35:22.279
<v Speaker 1>states like North Dakota, Wyoming, and Montana. Right, that's what

0:35:22.360 --> 0:35:24.520
<v Speaker 1>the Minuteman system is. It's about a thousand of these

0:35:24.560 --> 0:35:27.800
<v Speaker 1>missiles split up into groups of like ten and fifty

0:35:28.120 --> 0:35:30.720
<v Speaker 1>and spread out all over these kind of plane states.

0:35:30.800 --> 0:35:32.480
<v Speaker 2>Right, that makes sense.

0:35:33.200 --> 0:35:36.120
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, minute Man was not yet an effect. Right, that

0:35:36.120 --> 0:35:38.960
<v Speaker 1>doesn't happen until sixty one. But two aspects of the program,

0:35:38.960 --> 0:35:41.160
<v Speaker 1>the wide dispersal of missile silos and the fact that

0:35:41.200 --> 0:35:43.799
<v Speaker 1>each silo is hardened to withstand anything but a direct

0:35:43.880 --> 0:35:47.720
<v Speaker 1>nuclear hit, came from suggestions made by RAND thinkers. Rubel

0:35:47.840 --> 0:35:50.279
<v Speaker 1>makes the important point that all these defense nerds and

0:35:50.280 --> 0:35:52.640
<v Speaker 1>all the high ranking Air Force officers behind these plans

0:35:52.920 --> 0:35:57.200
<v Speaker 1>are only concerned in using automation to guarantee that we

0:35:57.239 --> 0:35:59.640
<v Speaker 1>would be able to fire our nukes if the government

0:35:59.719 --> 0:36:03.719
<v Speaker 1>was to he writes, quote equally important considerations such as

0:36:03.760 --> 0:36:06.400
<v Speaker 1>flexibility of command and control of these weapons, provisions to

0:36:06.400 --> 0:36:10.000
<v Speaker 1>prevent unauthorized or accidental launch, design provisions to ensure the

0:36:10.040 --> 0:36:13.040
<v Speaker 1>malfunction or failure of a critical component would not result

0:36:13.080 --> 0:36:16.359
<v Speaker 1>in a missile launch or some comparably dreadful catastrophe were

0:36:16.400 --> 0:36:17.839
<v Speaker 1>treated little or not at all.

0:36:18.960 --> 0:36:21.800
<v Speaker 2>Right, I was expecting this sense to end very differently.

0:36:22.480 --> 0:36:28.279
<v Speaker 1>It's unethical and wrong to even try to delay this

0:36:28.360 --> 0:36:31.239
<v Speaker 1>system and make it safer, because anything that you do

0:36:31.920 --> 0:36:35.880
<v Speaker 1>to like make the Minuteman system less dangerous is reducing

0:36:35.920 --> 0:36:39.440
<v Speaker 1>its automation, right, which is increasing the odds that we

0:36:39.560 --> 0:36:43.960
<v Speaker 1>don't fire back if we're all killed. And that's unacceptable, right,

0:36:44.360 --> 0:36:46.680
<v Speaker 1>partly because the game theory thing is that they need

0:36:46.719 --> 0:36:49.560
<v Speaker 1>to know that even if they kill a president and

0:36:50.200 --> 0:36:54.080
<v Speaker 1>whoever comes after that, yeah, they still lose too. As

0:36:54.080 --> 0:36:56.719
<v Speaker 1>a result, all these officers get extremely angry when people

0:36:56.719 --> 0:36:59.120
<v Speaker 1>are like, well, but like, are you not worried about

0:36:59.239 --> 0:37:02.600
<v Speaker 1>maybe something going wrong and the missiles all launching accidentally,

0:37:02.640 --> 0:37:04.160
<v Speaker 1>And they're like, well, that's not nearly as scary as

0:37:04.160 --> 0:37:07.120
<v Speaker 1>the missile's not launching, you know, that really is how

0:37:07.120 --> 0:37:09.640
<v Speaker 1>all these guys are thinking and you know who else

0:37:09.640 --> 0:37:10.160
<v Speaker 1>thinks that way?

0:37:10.200 --> 0:37:13.320
<v Speaker 2>Margaret, Well, is it the life Fest?

0:37:14.040 --> 0:37:17.640
<v Speaker 1>Yes? Yes, the makers of the new Life Fest get

0:37:17.680 --> 0:37:20.839
<v Speaker 1>one today, you know, get two, get three, get one

0:37:20.880 --> 0:37:23.120
<v Speaker 1>for the whole family. You know, everyone should have one

0:37:23.120 --> 0:37:27.280
<v Speaker 1>of these vests. A society where everyone's wearing a suicide

0:37:27.320 --> 0:37:29.239
<v Speaker 1>vest at all times is a polite society.

0:37:29.840 --> 0:37:31.520
<v Speaker 2>Probably, That's what everyone says.

0:37:31.920 --> 0:37:37.840
<v Speaker 1>We'll see what happens, you know, We'll see what happens

0:37:41.040 --> 0:37:44.960
<v Speaker 1>and we're back. Yeah, Margaret, how you take in this revelation?

0:37:46.880 --> 0:37:49.799
<v Speaker 2>I you know, okay, so I can't remember we talked

0:37:49.800 --> 0:37:52.000
<v Speaker 2>about on mic or not, but we talked about the

0:37:52.320 --> 0:37:57.239
<v Speaker 2>dark forest theory and the yeah, the books I can't

0:37:57.239 --> 0:37:57.960
<v Speaker 2>remember the name of.

0:37:58.320 --> 0:38:01.200
<v Speaker 1>Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, by the that Chinese sci fi

0:38:01.239 --> 0:38:04.560
<v Speaker 1>author about yeah yeah yeah. The dark forest theory. Folks,

0:38:04.560 --> 0:38:06.960
<v Speaker 1>if you're not aware, is this basically this idea that

0:38:07.000 --> 0:38:10.520
<v Speaker 1>if there's life out there, the chance that it's hostile

0:38:10.719 --> 0:38:13.279
<v Speaker 1>is so high that everyone would be basically be trying

0:38:13.320 --> 0:38:17.200
<v Speaker 1>to either hide or fuck up other life first, right,

0:38:17.320 --> 0:38:19.880
<v Speaker 1>Like it's a bunch of hunters wandering around a dark forest.

0:38:19.960 --> 0:38:21.399
<v Speaker 1>Is kind of where the name comes from, but it's

0:38:21.640 --> 0:38:24.240
<v Speaker 1>it's more game theory stuff, right, but trying to imagine

0:38:24.239 --> 0:38:27.080
<v Speaker 1>how aliens would think. I actually don't entirely agree with it.

0:38:27.040 --> 0:38:30.280
<v Speaker 2>But whatever, No, I don't either, And it's not shocking

0:38:30.280 --> 0:38:33.320
<v Speaker 2>that it's a right wing author, but like, yeah, it

0:38:33.480 --> 0:38:37.319
<v Speaker 2>doesn't make the opinion in it wrong necessarily, But I'm

0:38:37.360 --> 0:38:38.200
<v Speaker 2>just like not surprised.

0:38:38.280 --> 0:38:40.920
<v Speaker 1>No, No, people speak very highly of the books. I

0:38:40.920 --> 0:38:43.440
<v Speaker 1>thought the show was good, Like, I don't have to

0:38:43.480 --> 0:38:45.719
<v Speaker 1>agree with someone's politics to be interested in there.

0:38:46.400 --> 0:38:48.799
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, And I find it so interesting because it is

0:38:48.960 --> 0:38:50.880
<v Speaker 2>so much of it is around this idea of like,

0:38:51.560 --> 0:38:56.239
<v Speaker 2>whoever is controlling the mutually assured destruction button, we need

0:38:56.280 --> 0:38:58.680
<v Speaker 2>to make sure that they're reliable, and by reliable we

0:38:58.719 --> 0:39:03.280
<v Speaker 2>mean not think, not thinking about the consequences of their actions.

0:39:03.480 --> 0:39:05.680
<v Speaker 2>And it's like, because to me, I clearly shouldn't be

0:39:05.680 --> 0:39:07.759
<v Speaker 2>in charge of mutually a shared destruction because I'm like,

0:39:08.000 --> 0:39:12.600
<v Speaker 2>I would rather I die and everyone I know die

0:39:13.000 --> 0:39:16.360
<v Speaker 2>than all humanity die. Like it just yeah, it just

0:39:16.400 --> 0:39:18.600
<v Speaker 2>seems so obvious to me, you know.

0:39:18.800 --> 0:39:22.560
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, like I don't. I don't, And this, I guess

0:39:22.600 --> 0:39:26.240
<v Speaker 1>is just the difference between different kind of value systems.

0:39:26.719 --> 0:39:29.120
<v Speaker 1>I don't think American lives are worth more than any

0:39:29.160 --> 0:39:30.080
<v Speaker 1>other kind of life.

0:39:30.440 --> 0:39:32.360
<v Speaker 2>Nope, right, yep.

0:39:32.200 --> 0:39:34.040
<v Speaker 1>I don't think they're worth more than Russian lives or

0:39:34.160 --> 0:39:37.759
<v Speaker 1>Chinese lives or Latvian lives and nope, I guess I

0:39:37.760 --> 0:39:39.920
<v Speaker 1>don't want to get nuked. But my preference would be

0:39:40.280 --> 0:39:43.759
<v Speaker 1>if someone's going to get nuked, that not everyone gets nuked. Right,

0:39:43.840 --> 0:39:47.839
<v Speaker 1>That's better to me than anyway. That is not how

0:39:47.880 --> 0:39:48.640
<v Speaker 1>these people think.

0:39:49.000 --> 0:39:52.040
<v Speaker 2>Right. Even if the leaders of another country are my enemy,

0:39:52.200 --> 0:39:55.040
<v Speaker 2>that doesn't make every single person who whatever anyway.

0:39:55.120 --> 0:39:57.359
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, the leaders of every country are my enemy.

0:39:57.360 --> 0:40:00.880
<v Speaker 1>They're all assholes. But I still don't want nukes firing.

0:40:00.480 --> 0:40:05.160
<v Speaker 2>Off, I know, get them in a room anyway, yep, yeah, yeah. Wow.

0:40:05.440 --> 0:40:07.640
<v Speaker 1>So one of the things that I think is valuable

0:40:07.680 --> 0:40:10.239
<v Speaker 1>here to get into is Rubelle talks about when he

0:40:10.280 --> 0:40:13.759
<v Speaker 1>starts realizing how this system works. He has this realization,

0:40:13.840 --> 0:40:16.719
<v Speaker 1>which is that our whole nuclear deterrence system is what

0:40:16.840 --> 0:40:21.480
<v Speaker 1>he describes as dangerously unstable. Right, And this is valuable

0:40:21.520 --> 0:40:23.879
<v Speaker 1>just in terms of understanding how like military planners think

0:40:23.920 --> 0:40:26.000
<v Speaker 1>and kind of the logic that this guy's going through

0:40:26.000 --> 0:40:27.400
<v Speaker 1>as he's trying to deal with this problem.

0:40:27.560 --> 0:40:27.759
<v Speaker 3>Right.

0:40:28.040 --> 0:40:32.640
<v Speaker 1>Quote from Rebel Instability arises most dangerously in the contemporary

0:40:32.640 --> 0:40:35.880
<v Speaker 1>world when fast arsenals of horrendously destructive weapons end up

0:40:35.880 --> 0:40:38.440
<v Speaker 1>ready to go in minutes. If one side does go

0:40:38.520 --> 0:40:40.680
<v Speaker 1>for any reason, or even for none, the other is

0:40:40.719 --> 0:40:44.759
<v Speaker 1>set to respond and must respond. Strategic weapons, I soon realized,

0:40:44.800 --> 0:40:49.480
<v Speaker 1>could often determine policy by their very design. Military instability

0:40:49.520 --> 0:40:52.880
<v Speaker 1>arises when the actions of one side will, unless countered

0:40:52.920 --> 0:40:56.080
<v Speaker 1>in a timely manner, give it a decisive military advantage.

0:40:56.160 --> 0:40:58.799
<v Speaker 1>It is worsened as the interval defining a timely manner

0:40:58.880 --> 0:41:02.040
<v Speaker 1>shrinks to almost nothing, as it does in the missile age. Right,

0:41:02.320 --> 0:41:05.279
<v Speaker 1>he's describing this doomsday device that's being built. Right, it's

0:41:05.320 --> 0:41:10.000
<v Speaker 1>an unstable system, right, because of how fast everything works

0:41:10.000 --> 0:41:13.240
<v Speaker 1>and how destructive these weapons are. Rubell, in no uncertain

0:41:13.320 --> 0:41:16.880
<v Speaker 1>terms described the ideology behind launch on warning as quote

0:41:16.920 --> 0:41:19.399
<v Speaker 1>flawed and terrifying, and quoted Herman Khan.

0:41:19.800 --> 0:41:24.400
<v Speaker 3>Shit guy, yeah, my guy, yeah.

0:41:24.480 --> 0:41:27.440
<v Speaker 1>He quoted Herman khn and calling this arrangement a doomsday machine.

0:41:27.440 --> 0:41:29.680
<v Speaker 1>And he discussed he wrote about something that happened in

0:41:29.680 --> 0:41:32.200
<v Speaker 1>World War One as an example for like why he

0:41:32.280 --> 0:41:34.399
<v Speaker 1>considered all this so frightening. And I'm going to quote

0:41:34.440 --> 0:41:37.200
<v Speaker 1>an extended piece here. On a visit to France in

0:41:37.280 --> 0:41:39.520
<v Speaker 1>nineteen sixty three, I came across the remains of a

0:41:39.560 --> 0:41:42.080
<v Speaker 1>World War One catastrophe and you're a small village along

0:41:42.080 --> 0:41:45.240
<v Speaker 1>the Canal de Nord northeast of Paris. There one discovers

0:41:45.239 --> 0:41:47.160
<v Speaker 1>a crater about fifty feet deep and a couple of

0:41:47.280 --> 0:41:50.000
<v Speaker 1>hundred feet in diameter. Postcards on sale in the village

0:41:50.040 --> 0:41:53.600
<v Speaker 1>identify it as Le tournaire, a melancholy reminder of what

0:41:53.680 --> 0:41:57.000
<v Speaker 1>happened in a pre war landmark and its unfortunate human occupants.

0:41:57.200 --> 0:41:59.400
<v Speaker 1>Before World War One, a small hill stood were only

0:41:59.440 --> 0:42:02.360
<v Speaker 1>the crater room. The little hill was a formidable obstacle

0:42:02.360 --> 0:42:03.920
<v Speaker 1>in the path of the French on one side and

0:42:03.920 --> 0:42:06.520
<v Speaker 1>the Germans on the other, each hold up in extensive trenches,

0:42:06.840 --> 0:42:08.400
<v Speaker 1>unable to see the enemy on the other side of

0:42:08.440 --> 0:42:10.080
<v Speaker 1>the hill, and likely to get blown away if they

0:42:10.160 --> 0:42:12.680
<v Speaker 1>dared peer over the top. An obvious solution occurred to

0:42:12.719 --> 0:42:15.399
<v Speaker 1>each side mine the other side and blow it up.

0:42:15.680 --> 0:42:18.239
<v Speaker 1>Each side began mining the hill. The process went on

0:42:18.280 --> 0:42:20.440
<v Speaker 1>for weeks as tons of earth was excavated to form

0:42:20.480 --> 0:42:23.000
<v Speaker 1>tunnels extending under the German side, dug by the French,

0:42:23.160 --> 0:42:25.800
<v Speaker 1>and under the French side dug by the Germans. Eventually

0:42:25.800 --> 0:42:27.680
<v Speaker 1>the tunnels were filled with t and t by each

0:42:27.719 --> 0:42:29.759
<v Speaker 1>side under the part of the hill occupied by the other.

0:42:30.160 --> 0:42:32.279
<v Speaker 1>Then one day somebody on one side or the other.

0:42:32.480 --> 0:42:34.600
<v Speaker 1>Nobody will ever know which side or who it was,

0:42:34.920 --> 0:42:37.359
<v Speaker 1>detonated a charge that ignited all the French in all

0:42:37.360 --> 0:42:40.320
<v Speaker 1>the German explosives. Who knows. Maybe it was an accident

0:42:40.600 --> 0:42:43.120
<v Speaker 1>either way, accident or on purpose. This little mountain with

0:42:43.200 --> 0:42:45.439
<v Speaker 1>hundreds of luckless humans and trenches on it or still

0:42:45.440 --> 0:42:48.319
<v Speaker 1>tunneling beneath it, was blown to Kingdom come, leaving only

0:42:48.360 --> 0:42:51.480
<v Speaker 1>an impressive crater to remind an occasional visitor forever what

0:42:51.640 --> 0:42:54.759
<v Speaker 1>military instability can mean. It was not too early in

0:42:54.840 --> 0:42:57.480
<v Speaker 1>nineteen fifty nine to envision a ghastly replay of this

0:42:57.480 --> 0:43:00.680
<v Speaker 1>little known drama on a global scale.

0:43:00.840 --> 0:43:03.440
<v Speaker 2>That's such a good metaphor, and it's such a shame. Yeah,

0:43:03.480 --> 0:43:05.439
<v Speaker 2>it's like a It took a lot of people dying

0:43:05.480 --> 0:43:06.480
<v Speaker 2>to give us that metaphor.

0:43:06.840 --> 0:43:10.439
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, yeah, but I mean he's right here now.

0:43:10.640 --> 0:43:11.120
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:43:11.320 --> 0:43:14.520
<v Speaker 1>Rubel first sits down with the Minuteman project manager, who's

0:43:14.560 --> 0:43:17.320
<v Speaker 1>a former Hughes Aircraft guy named Bob Bennett. In the

0:43:17.360 --> 0:43:20.040
<v Speaker 1>spring of nineteen fifty nine, he noticed it. Despite their

0:43:20.040 --> 0:43:22.839
<v Speaker 1>friendly relationship, Bob was squirrely and didn't like to give

0:43:22.840 --> 0:43:25.919
<v Speaker 1>out information when asked basic questions like how do these

0:43:25.960 --> 0:43:30.399
<v Speaker 1>missiles actually fire? And how many missiles fire at once? Right?

0:43:31.000 --> 0:43:33.279
<v Speaker 1>At this point, the Minuteman system was being built as

0:43:33.280 --> 0:43:35.839
<v Speaker 1>a second strike system, but there was no reason you'd

0:43:35.840 --> 0:43:38.000
<v Speaker 1>need a weapon like the Minuteman for a second strike.

0:43:38.280 --> 0:43:40.160
<v Speaker 1>It was clearly meant for a first strike in a

0:43:40.239 --> 0:43:42.960
<v Speaker 1>launch on warn scenario. The Air Force was just lying

0:43:43.000 --> 0:43:45.960
<v Speaker 1>to everybody, right. In order to make this seem less dangerous,

0:43:46.440 --> 0:43:49.400
<v Speaker 1>each Minuteman was to be aimed at all times at

0:43:49.400 --> 0:43:52.399
<v Speaker 1>a different city in the USSR or China. We don't

0:43:52.400 --> 0:43:54.759
<v Speaker 1>have good computers back then, right, So the way these

0:43:54.800 --> 0:43:57.800
<v Speaker 1>things are targeted is there's a system of gyroscopes inside

0:43:57.800 --> 0:44:01.040
<v Speaker 1>each of these missiles, rotating on frictionless ball bearings at

0:44:01.040 --> 0:44:04.200
<v Speaker 1>all times, which will guide the missiles win launched towards

0:44:04.200 --> 0:44:07.920
<v Speaker 1>a specific set of coordinates. Missiles cannot be retargeted on

0:44:07.960 --> 0:44:10.600
<v Speaker 1>the fly. Once you fire these, no matter who you're

0:44:10.640 --> 0:44:12.839
<v Speaker 1>launching them at, no matter who starts the war. If

0:44:12.880 --> 0:44:16.000
<v Speaker 1>the missiles fire, they go towards the preset targets. Are

0:44:16.080 --> 0:44:17.719
<v Speaker 1>you seeing a problem potentially?

0:44:18.280 --> 0:44:21.319
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Also, I'm impressed by that method of figuring out

0:44:21.320 --> 0:44:22.080
<v Speaker 2>how to aim things.

0:44:21.920 --> 0:44:23.320
<v Speaker 1>So it's incredibly impressive.

0:44:23.640 --> 0:44:23.839
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:44:23.880 --> 0:44:25.960
<v Speaker 1>Like, these people are very smart and very stupid at

0:44:25.960 --> 0:44:26.520
<v Speaker 1>the same time.

0:44:26.719 --> 0:44:29.560
<v Speaker 2>Yep, yep, twentieth century engineering.

0:44:30.000 --> 0:44:33.719
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. Like, there's a very high chance with this that

0:44:33.960 --> 0:44:36.400
<v Speaker 1>we wind up nuking a country that has not fired

0:44:36.400 --> 0:44:38.479
<v Speaker 1>at us, because we're just launching all of our shit

0:44:38.520 --> 0:44:40.680
<v Speaker 1>and some of it's targeted towards them. Right, we'll talk

0:44:40.719 --> 0:44:44.640
<v Speaker 1>more about that in the last episode. Now, this is

0:44:44.640 --> 0:44:47.760
<v Speaker 1>a problem because each squadron of fifty missiles is divided

0:44:47.760 --> 0:44:50.200
<v Speaker 1>into five groups of ten, and each squadron of ten

0:44:50.280 --> 0:44:53.040
<v Speaker 1>would be fired by just two guys. If two men

0:44:53.120 --> 0:44:55.080
<v Speaker 1>chose to insert their keys at the same time, the

0:44:55.160 --> 0:44:57.719
<v Speaker 1>launch control center they were in would be considered to

0:44:57.800 --> 0:45:00.440
<v Speaker 1>have voted to launch, and all ten missile would fire.

0:45:00.760 --> 0:45:02.959
<v Speaker 1>If two or more centers voted yes within a short

0:45:02.960 --> 0:45:06.120
<v Speaker 1>period of time, all fifty missiles in the squadron would fire.

0:45:06.640 --> 0:45:09.120
<v Speaker 1>Each missile was targeted to a city, we have no

0:45:09.160 --> 0:45:11.840
<v Speaker 1>way of knowing who might provocus, which means, by default,

0:45:11.880 --> 0:45:15.080
<v Speaker 1>our automated response was to nuke both the USSR and China,

0:45:15.160 --> 0:45:17.560
<v Speaker 1>even if one of those nations did nothing to piss

0:45:17.640 --> 0:45:18.480
<v Speaker 1>us off or threaten us.

0:45:18.520 --> 0:45:20.640
<v Speaker 2>Oh my god, when did China get nukes?

0:45:22.239 --> 0:45:25.480
<v Speaker 1>China detonates their first nuke in October of nineteen sixty four,

0:45:25.840 --> 0:45:29.400
<v Speaker 1>so they don't have it yet. But you know, military

0:45:29.400 --> 0:45:31.840
<v Speaker 1>planners at this period of time before China has nukes

0:45:32.040 --> 0:45:35.520
<v Speaker 1>are thinking of China and the Soviet Union as one

0:45:35.719 --> 0:45:39.399
<v Speaker 1>unified communist block. They are not. As Nixon will make

0:45:39.600 --> 0:45:43.239
<v Speaker 1>very clear, those countries don't like each other, really like

0:45:43.480 --> 0:45:47.480
<v Speaker 1>they have a fraught history. But our assumption is we

0:45:47.480 --> 0:45:49.640
<v Speaker 1>got to start by nuke in them both. Right, So

0:45:50.760 --> 0:45:53.200
<v Speaker 1>it actually gets even worse than this, which we'll talk

0:45:53.239 --> 0:45:55.880
<v Speaker 1>about in the last episode. But I think this is

0:45:55.880 --> 0:45:58.800
<v Speaker 1>a good point to end here, just with the dread

0:45:58.840 --> 0:46:01.000
<v Speaker 1>of how fucking danger risk this system is.

0:46:02.040 --> 0:46:05.600
<v Speaker 2>My god, God, I'm so glad that this is just

0:46:05.640 --> 0:46:08.200
<v Speaker 2>in this weird nerd game that you play and called Warhammer.

0:46:09.880 --> 0:46:12.759
<v Speaker 1>Certainly not real, this was Yeah, this was real. This

0:46:12.760 --> 0:46:16.280
<v Speaker 1>would be like big Dude verifying what a nightmare?

0:46:17.120 --> 0:46:19.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah? How does anyone sleep?

0:46:19.520 --> 0:46:22.399
<v Speaker 1>Yeah? If this was all real and people actually tried

0:46:22.440 --> 0:46:24.799
<v Speaker 1>to build it, built a system like this, we would

0:46:24.840 --> 0:46:27.840
<v Speaker 1>have to throw them all in prison, right, I assume

0:46:27.960 --> 0:46:30.880
<v Speaker 1>so we wouldn't let them retire with millions of dollars.

0:46:31.000 --> 0:46:36.759
<v Speaker 1>That would be crazy. No, all right, well, Margaret Pluggables.

0:46:37.160 --> 0:46:41.160
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I have a substack. I write about the things

0:46:41.160 --> 0:46:43.240
<v Speaker 2>that I talk about on my show, and my substack

0:46:43.600 --> 0:46:45.319
<v Speaker 2>Margaret Kiljoy. You can find me on all of the

0:46:45.360 --> 0:46:47.759
<v Speaker 2>various Internet things that I'm on and not the ones

0:46:47.760 --> 0:46:50.439
<v Speaker 2>that I'm not on. And I'm not aware of any

0:46:50.440 --> 0:46:53.960
<v Speaker 2>other Margaret Kiljoy except apparently a Disney character where she

0:46:54.520 --> 0:46:57.480
<v Speaker 2>from the second Plantasia movie or something, or she's a

0:46:57.880 --> 0:47:01.279
<v Speaker 2>nag like a massogynist character that oh boom, I actually

0:47:01.320 --> 0:47:03.160
<v Speaker 2>could have these characters. It might be I might have

0:47:03.200 --> 0:47:06.040
<v Speaker 2>the movie wrong. I don't know. Someone just pointed out

0:47:06.080 --> 0:47:11.000
<v Speaker 2>to me recently, but I'm not a missogyny stereotype from Disney.

0:47:11.080 --> 0:47:15.080
<v Speaker 2>I am instead everyone's nightmare of if you're transphobed, I'm

0:47:15.120 --> 0:47:17.880
<v Speaker 2>your nightmare and you can find me by googly me.

0:47:18.520 --> 0:47:19.240
<v Speaker 2>That's what I got.

0:47:19.960 --> 0:47:22.680
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I actually am a missogyous nightmare from a Disney movie.

0:47:22.719 --> 0:47:24.920
<v Speaker 1>I was the inspiration for guests on a lot of

0:47:24.920 --> 0:47:25.680
<v Speaker 1>people don't know that.

0:47:27.840 --> 0:47:32.239
<v Speaker 2>Comment. I don't have a counter argument. I've met you

0:47:32.280 --> 0:47:33.000
<v Speaker 2>in real life.

0:47:34.800 --> 0:47:41.560
<v Speaker 3>Podcasts is over all right. Behind the Bastards is a

0:47:41.600 --> 0:47:44.960
<v Speaker 3>production of cool Zone Media. For more from cool Zone Media,

0:47:45.120 --> 0:47:48.759
<v Speaker 3>visit our website cool Zonemedia dot com or check us

0:47:48.760 --> 0:47:51.759
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0:47:51.800 --> 0:47:55.400
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0:47:55.640 --> 0:47:59.640
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0:48:00.200 --> 0:48:02.960
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