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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we

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Speaker 2: go from throwing out, so.

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Speaker 3: We're sitting up your cash touchdown.

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Speaker 4: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 4: go to Swayne.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible being bank, small bank.

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Speaker 3: I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right.

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Speaker 3: This is the ultimate combining.

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Speaker 5: And you want to pack.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 6: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 7: We are presented by bet MGM, the King of sports books,

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Speaker 7: spreading glass sheeen. Alongside our usual suspects, we have Brandon Anderson,

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Speaker 7: Luke Vegas, refund Swayin and Anthony Dubundo in the rotating

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Speaker 7: third chair.

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Speaker 6: This week excellent week in week fourteen for the.

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Speaker 7: Podcast seven and two on the picks for the year

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Speaker 7: now sixty seven and sixty I may add to some

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Speaker 7: Jill go on anytime touchdowns in there with some nice odds.

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Speaker 7: So thanks to Luke and a part of me well

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Speaker 7: thanks to Luke as well, but thanks to Jill for.

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Speaker 6: His excellent work throughout the course of the season.

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Speaker 7: When you include the look ahead from Brandon Anderson, seventy

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Speaker 7: four and sixty three for the year, So a nice

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Speaker 7: little run we've been on here down the stretch.

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Speaker 6: Let's keep it going.

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Speaker 7: You can find the video version of the podcast on

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Speaker 7: the Action Network YouTube page.

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Speaker 6: So if you've already found us, great once you are there.

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Speaker 7: If you haven't done so already, please subscribe to the channel.

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Speaker 7: Like the video, we greatly appreciate it, and on the

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Speaker 7: podcast side, a five.

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Speaker 6: Star rating and review is appreciated.

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Speaker 7: Brandon, Luke and Anthony all available individually in the free award.

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Speaker 6: Winning Action Network app. Give it a download.

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Speaker 7: Track your picks, our picks to make yourself a better

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Speaker 7: better Okay, fellas ninth straight weeks at nine hundred or better.

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Speaker 7: Let's keep this going, Brandon Anderson, I'll start with you

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Speaker 7: best bet for week fifteen, your first one.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, this is a tough slate, guys. I thought this

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Speaker 5: was one of the hardest slates of the season and

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Speaker 5: stuff that I like. But there's one game that I loved.

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Speaker 5: So that's the way I'm leading with and that is

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Speaker 5: the Los Angeles Rams minus six home against the Commanders

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Speaker 5: six and a half. If you need it, look, I

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Speaker 5: faded the Rams last week. I went head to head

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Speaker 5: with du Bundo on this and I lost, and I

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Speaker 5: lost by one. But as a batteryd By me. The

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Speaker 5: Ravens were fine, but the Rams were really good. And

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Speaker 5: the Rams offense I thought, just really proved how legit

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Speaker 5: they were against a good Ravens defense. I actually moved

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Speaker 5: these six and seven Rams after a loss up in

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Speaker 5: my power rankings into the top ten. That's how impressive

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Speaker 5: I thought their performance was in that game. And any

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Speaker 5: of the Commanders, who are the worst.

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Speaker 3: Defense in the NFL.

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Speaker 5: They're number two in number thirty two in DVA, number

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Speaker 5: thirty two past DVOA. They've had no pass rush, none

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Speaker 5: since trading away Chase Young and Montes Sweat. So Matt

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Speaker 5: Stafford's going to stand back there and pick apart the secondary.

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Speaker 5: Poor Emanuel Forbes, the rookie for Washington's been getting burned

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Speaker 5: a lot of times this season. Cooper Cup had a

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Speaker 5: big game last week. I think he's finally healthy after

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Speaker 5: that injury. Pukainakua obviously has had a big year. I

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Speaker 5: just feel like the Rams offense can do really anything

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Speaker 5: it wants here. Rams over the last five games are

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Speaker 5: at ninth in DVA in the NFL. Offensively, they are

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Speaker 5: number two behind just the forty nine ers. How good

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Speaker 5: the Niners have been. The Rams are the only team,

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Speaker 5: the Niners only team. The Rams are trailing, so defensively

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Speaker 5: still not great, but are we moor still nice?

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Speaker 3: Job like?

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Speaker 5: They're around league average. They're number eight against the run.

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Speaker 5: That's what you want against Washington. Washington is pretty run heavy,

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Speaker 5: and the Rams are also better in the first half,

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Speaker 5: where the Commanders are actually much worse in the first half.

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Speaker 5: So I think that sets up for stay on the

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Speaker 5: front foot, get what you want with the Rams, get

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Speaker 5: a lead, and then I don't really think you like

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Speaker 5: Washington coming from behind ron rivera out of a bye week.

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Speaker 5: What is the one thing here I don't love is

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Speaker 5: Washington's out of the bye week. How is it like

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Speaker 5: mid December and we still have teams coming out of

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Speaker 5: a bye week. Also, I think that this is the

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Speaker 5: fourth time this year the Rams have faced the team

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Speaker 5: out of the by Suffice to say, the NFL did

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Speaker 5: not think the Rams were supposed to still matter this

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Speaker 5: point of the season. Run over out of the by

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Speaker 5: four and eight ats, I'm not really that worried about

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Speaker 5: Ronnie getting a little extra time to prep for this game,

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Speaker 5: so I'm not gonna be too worried about that. Commanders

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Speaker 5: have allowed twenty eight points or more in three straight games,

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Speaker 5: actually four straight, but teams along twenty eight or more

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Speaker 5: three straight are twenty two to forty five and two

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Speaker 5: ats sixty or sorry, thirty three percent hit ray for them,

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Speaker 5: sixty seven percent for the Rams. On the other side,

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Speaker 5: Washington has actually allowed twenty eight or more nine out

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Speaker 5: of thirteen games this season, so they've probably been on

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Speaker 5: for this deat a bunch of the times. Their last

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Speaker 5: two games before the bye forty five to the Dolphins,

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Speaker 5: forty five to the Cowboys.

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Speaker 3: Guess what.

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Speaker 5: During this same span, the Rams are number two in offense,

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Speaker 5: better than the Dolphins and the Cowboys. So I love

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Speaker 5: the Rams. I looked at their team total over looked

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Speaker 5: at the first half. I think this is an awesome

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Speaker 5: teaser leg. You basically just get a pick them. I

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Speaker 5: might do any or all of that. I'll probably look

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Speaker 5: at some alts, but here, just keep it easy. Rams

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Speaker 5: minus six.

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Speaker 3: Yeah s.

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Speaker 7: Here a Rams team total up over four touchdowns twenty

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Speaker 7: eight and a half points. I was like, this is

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Speaker 7: like Stafford year one stuff when they got him.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm glad you brought up the Cowboys too.

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Speaker 7: And that's a great stat on the Niners as far

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Speaker 7: as DVA offensive DVOA, because this feels like what we're

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Speaker 7: going to see Sunday, what we might have seen Thanksgiving when.

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Speaker 6: Dallas just took it and ran with it.

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Speaker 7: Now I realized Dallas is a lot more potent defensively,

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Speaker 7: had the pick six a little bit different how we

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Speaker 7: get there with the.

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Speaker 6: Points, but.

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Speaker 7: The Commanders are pretty bad and Sam Howell's good for

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Speaker 7: a turnover or two.

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Speaker 3: Luke Swayne maybe as well.

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Speaker 5: The team total, too, was twenty seven and a half,

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Speaker 5: and that was my bet. The total on this game

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Speaker 5: has been going up. Line is not because the total

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Speaker 5: is like, uh, you know why, let's give the Rams

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Speaker 5: a couple more points here they're scoring. So that's why

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Speaker 5: I ended up sticking with just the minus six here

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Speaker 5: versus the team total over though I would not be

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Speaker 5: surprised to see the Rams put up like thirty eight

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Speaker 5: or something in the forties here if they really get gone.

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Speaker 7: Especially if they're healthy. Okay, Luke, your first best bet, please.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to go with the Bills playing two to

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys at home on Sunday afternoon, which two one

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Speaker 1: and a half money line. Any of them work as

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Speaker 1: long as it's under three but the Bills are going

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Speaker 1: to be getting a Cowboys team that is coming off

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Speaker 1: of a three game homestand which we don't really see

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Speaker 1: very often in the NFL. And the Cowboys are, i

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Speaker 1: think at peak price right now. They've just been demolishing

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Speaker 1: teams at home, and now they're going to be going

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Speaker 1: to Buffalo, which any team playing at Buffalo and the

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Speaker 1: sun is down in December is going to be a

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Speaker 1: tough scene for any team. And then you look at

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Speaker 1: this Cowboys team and on the road this year, they've

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Speaker 1: had six road games and they've beat the the Panthers,

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Speaker 1: which doesn't say a lot, Giants, which doesn't say a lot,

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Speaker 1: and barely beat the Chargers in LA, which was probably

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Speaker 1: a Dallas game anyway, and then they lost, They got

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Speaker 1: destroyed by the Niners, they lost to Philly, and they

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Speaker 1: lost to the Cardinals on the road with Josh Doopps.

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Speaker 1: So the Cowboys haven't on the road this year really

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Speaker 1: have been a totally different team, and and you're getting

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Speaker 1: them going to a Buffalo team that has probably the

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Speaker 1: most motivation out of any team right now to win

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Speaker 1: in the league, that is healthy in their defense is

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Speaker 1: playing like a top ten unit right now in the

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Speaker 1: last month, and the Bills have forced their last three

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Speaker 1: opponents to average under their season long in terms of EPA,

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Speaker 1: which includes the Chiefs and the Eagles, which honestly says

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Speaker 1: a ton about this defense that has really been struggling

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Speaker 1: with injuries to start the season. And that bye week,

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Speaker 1: like I said, last week, couldn't have come at a

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Speaker 1: better time. And then you get Josh Allen going against

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Speaker 1: a man heavy Dallas team, which any team that's man

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Speaker 1: heavy going against a quarterback that can run like Josh

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Speaker 1: Allen creates a lot of opportunities for Josh Allen. So

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Speaker 1: I'm just going to take this Bill's team as a

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Speaker 1: small favorite that is probably still undervalued going against the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys team that right now is quarterback is the favorite

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Speaker 1: to be MVP, coming off three home games that they

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Speaker 1: probably looked like top three unit in the league, going

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Speaker 1: against the Bills team that I think is just going

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Speaker 1: to run them out like they did the Dolphins earlier

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Speaker 1: this season.

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Speaker 3: If you remember that Dolphins team.

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Speaker 1: Going to Buffalo, they got destroyed and they were at

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Speaker 1: market peak as well. The Cowboys just really haven't beaten

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Speaker 1: many good teams this year, and the last good team

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Speaker 1: they played was probably the Niners and they got demolished,

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Speaker 1: So I'm kind of expecting, hopefully expecting something similar.

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Speaker 4: Well, even in the fans are mad at you right now. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: a lot of Eagles fans are mad about that comment

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Speaker 4: you just made.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I forget what the Eagles. I mean, I tried

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Speaker 3: that was at home so.

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Speaker 7: Well, even the home game Thursday night against Seattle, the

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Speaker 7: Seahawks for leading that game much of the way and

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Speaker 7: they put up points in a hurry.

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Speaker 1: It's he rained a Buffalo too. It's mainly just the

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Speaker 1: pass defense that the Cowboys have played like. They haven't

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Speaker 1: faced a top fifteen unit in pass defense since the Niners,

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Speaker 1: and this Bill team is top ten.

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Speaker 7: So it's also supposed to be raining in Buffalo on Sunday,

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Speaker 7: So gross weather outside for a team that already isn't

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Speaker 7: great on the road. Brandon Anderson, I'll throw this at

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Speaker 7: you quickly. Josh Allen's rushing prop. Is that interest you

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Speaker 7: in as a It's still kind of a big game.

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Speaker 7: I know it was a bigger game.

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Speaker 6: For the Bills.

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Speaker 7: Every game gets bigger if they keep winning to make

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Speaker 7: the playoffs.

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Speaker 6: Thirty three and a half is Josh Allen's rushing prop.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean it's it's similar to what we talked

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Speaker 5: about last week. I didn't actually look at it for

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Speaker 5: this week yet, but I think Luke's right. When you

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Speaker 5: get a lot of man, then you know, you get

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Speaker 5: a lot of backs turned to you and not eyes

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Speaker 5: on the quarterback to stop you from running. And that's

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Speaker 5: that we had last week when we hit. We hit

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Speaker 5: with the early line thirty and a half. He got

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Speaker 5: to thirty four and then melt twice and finished at

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Speaker 5: thirty two on a closing line of thirty three and

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Speaker 5: a half. I believe so it was closed last week.

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Speaker 5: He is not running quays much this year. I don't

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Speaker 5: know that I would run to grab it around that number,

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Speaker 5: but I think it's still I would certainly lean over

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Speaker 5: on it to Luke. What you said about the defense.

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Speaker 5: I know this week by dvoay. First four weeks of

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Speaker 5: this season, the Bills were number three in DVOA Week

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Speaker 5: five to nine, they were thirty first and thirty first

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Speaker 5: in past DVOA defensively, and we all kind of wrote

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Speaker 5: them off right, like, oh, the Bill's defense stinks.

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Speaker 2: That's it for Buffalo.

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Speaker 5: Last five games since then, back to seventh by DVA defensively,

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Speaker 5: So what do you know, Give Sean McDermott a little

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Speaker 5: time with.

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Speaker 3: His guys the bye week.

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Speaker 5: Like you said, his defense I think has come back

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Speaker 5: around and along with it the Josh Allen narrative, because hey,

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Speaker 5: quarterback wins and it turns out you're not a one

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Speaker 5: man team. You need some defense. Buffalo's defense is pretty

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Speaker 5: good again.

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Speaker 3: We're still Douglas, I think has a lot to do

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Speaker 3: with that as well. Yeah, okay, we if.

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Speaker 7: You had to hear from mister Anthony Dubundo your first

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Speaker 7: pick to Bundo.

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Speaker 6: Welcome back to the program.

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Speaker 4: So two weeks ago, Brendan, you weren't here, but we

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Speaker 4: discussed the Green Bay Packers again the show, and I

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Speaker 4: said that if they, you know, covered against the Kansas

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Speaker 4: City Chiefs plus six, that I would buy a cheesehead.

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Speaker 4: Because I've been on this show six times this year.

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Speaker 2: I've backed the Packers four of those six times.

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Speaker 6: Now you're wearing them, you're.

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Speaker 4: Watching I'm watching them every week, and I'll tell you

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Speaker 4: what I'm really liking what I'm seeing. I know Jordan

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Speaker 4: Love didn't have a great game Monday night, but that

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Speaker 4: was a bad spot for them on the road facing

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Speaker 4: a Giants team off the by really struggled with the

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Speaker 4: mobility of the Veto. They didn't really have that problem

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Speaker 4: here with Baker. We're back, baby, I said, I would

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Speaker 4: order the cheesehead. And now I'm in on the Green

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Speaker 4: Bay Packers. And I wrote in my column that I

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Speaker 4: wanted the three because I was a little unconcerned.

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Speaker 2: I was a little concerned about the injury report for

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Speaker 2: Green Bay.

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Speaker 4: I'm okay laying the three and a half given the

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Speaker 4: fact that two hours ago we're recording this Thursday afternoon

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Speaker 4: match time, and tweeted that D'antavian Wicks, Jaden Reed, Aaron Jones,

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Speaker 4: jyr Alexander and Kay Walker all returned to practice. That's

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Speaker 4: a that's half of the offense. Like I said, green Bay,

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Speaker 4: they strung with Love's accuracy.

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Speaker 2: They had some mistakes.

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Speaker 4: You know, they were in and out a great spot

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Speaker 4: and they lost kind of a fluky game on the

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Speaker 4: last kick. Okay, Now they get a Tampa Bay team

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Speaker 4: that is not getting most of their secondary.

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Speaker 2: And defensive group back.

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Speaker 4: They've been an absolute sieve defensively if you look at

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Speaker 4: you know, I know Atlanta lost last week, but they

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Speaker 4: moved the ball up and down the field on this

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Speaker 4: Tampa Bay defense. I think Green Bay is going to

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Speaker 4: have similar success. I still think the Packers are a

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Speaker 4: bet on team down the stretch, and I think the

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Speaker 4: NFC South is a fate.

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Speaker 2: I pulled it up today.

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Speaker 4: They are eleven and twenty five and non divisional games

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Speaker 4: against the spread this year. The Bucks have most of

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Speaker 4: those covers, and most of them came early in the

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Speaker 4: season when Tampa ran ungodly hot on third down for

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Speaker 4: the first month. So the Bucks this year, their defense

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Speaker 4: has continue to trend downward. Their run defense has not

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Speaker 4: been great. Their secondary is so injured. I think Green

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Speaker 4: Bay gets what it wants here. I think they get

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Speaker 4: ahead and you can't really run. You know Tampa Bay's

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Speaker 4: problem this year. They haven't been able to run the ball.

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Speaker 4: They're bottom three in success rate rushing, bottom ten epa

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Speaker 4: per rush. That's the weakness of this Green Bay defense.

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Speaker 4: So I'm riding with the cheeseheads once again. Green Bay

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Speaker 4: minus three and a half at home against Tampa Bay.

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Speaker 4: There is still a three in the market. Obviously, there's

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Speaker 4: a huge difference between three and three and a half.

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Speaker 4: I'd pay the minus one twenty to get the three.

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Speaker 4: But for this, for this purpose of this show, well

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Speaker 4: grated at three and a half. I think Green Bay

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Speaker 4: wins this going away and exposes this fraudulent NFC South

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Speaker 4: as they have to go out of the division. After

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Speaker 4: beating up on each other for a couple of weeks

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Speaker 4: in the last few.

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Speaker 7: Weeks in the market, now Packers are close to even

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Speaker 7: money to make the playoffs.

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Speaker 6: Brandon, you had a stat a few weeks back.

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Speaker 7: On totals as it pertains to the NFC self, I'm

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Speaker 7: putting you on the spot.

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Speaker 6: You know what I'm talking about.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, that was last week and it actually didn't hit

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Speaker 5: for us. We did the Falcons Bucks took the under

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Speaker 5: in that game. It was nineteen to ten with like

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Speaker 5: fourteen minutes left and about three hundred yards of offense

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Speaker 5: combined the whole game, and then they had like three

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Speaker 5: hundred and fifty yards and about two touchdowns each two

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Speaker 5: go over for the first time. That was the first

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Speaker 5: game in seven NFC South divisional games that any game

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Speaker 5: finished with forty points, which, by the way, we do

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Speaker 5: have another divisional game this week. We have Falcons Panthers

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Speaker 5: that totally I think is like thirty five and trending down. Yeah, Stee,

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Speaker 5: so it's a it's another one of those ugly NFC souths.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, I'm with du Bundo. NFC South fade across

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Speaker 5: the board. I know he and I both looked at

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Speaker 5: taking the Giants against the Saints. We didn't go with that,

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Speaker 5: but that's another like there anywhere you can fade this

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Speaker 5: awful division seems like a good spot to do it

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Speaker 5: right now, Louke.

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Speaker 7: Will stick with you here for the we'll start your

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Speaker 7: start the second round of picks with you. I don't

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Speaker 7: know if you have a cheesehead down there and you're

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Speaker 7: in you're a little bunker, but you're ride with the

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Speaker 7: Packers too.

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Speaker 1: Why Yep, I'm with du Bundo on this one as well,

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Speaker 1: And really like the three is what I wanted. And

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Speaker 1: I actually flips back and forth with this one from

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Speaker 1: another pick, but came to terms with three and a

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Speaker 1: half being totally fine. Where Like the key point that

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Speaker 1: I didn't think the Pundle was gonna take was the

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Speaker 1: non divisional matchups is so far in division, Like I mean,

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Speaker 1: if you just look at it, their schedules, like every

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Speaker 1: single NFC South game divisional game has been like really

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Speaker 1: really tight. And then if you look at the non

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Speaker 1: divisional games like these teams are getting blown out. Then

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Speaker 1: if you look at the recent games that the Bucks

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Speaker 1: have had in non division like there was in by

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Speaker 1: like seven plus ten plus to honestly teams that are

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Speaker 1: probably worse than the Packers in general. And this is

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Speaker 1: just a great bounce back spot for a Packers team

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Speaker 1: that was really in probably like the worst possible spot

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Speaker 1: on Monday Night a couple of days ago. And there

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Speaker 1: are a lot of turnovers, a lot of flooky plays,

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Speaker 1: and the health like the bundle bron to play.

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Speaker 3: Like the injury reports looking a lot better.

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Speaker 1: Aaron Jones, I think we finally should get back Christian

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Speaker 1: Watson will get back Quay. It's just a great spot

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Speaker 1: for the Packers to bounced back, saying probably a fraudulent

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Speaker 1: AFC like Bucks team, AFC South team, they're all fraudulent

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Speaker 1: at home.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, all away to three and a half as well.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, you know, Tampa Bay went to Indianapolis

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Speaker 4: with basically the same injury report two weeks ago and

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Speaker 4: closed plus three, and like I said, there's still a

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Speaker 4: three out there. I think Green Bay is clearly better

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Speaker 4: than Indianapolis right now on both sides of the ball,

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Speaker 4: and you know it's the same number. And so yeah,

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Speaker 4: the Packers, I know they had a bad game, and

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Speaker 4: I was literally, you know, I didn't have money on

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Speaker 4: the game. I was sitting there almost rooting for the

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Speaker 4: Giants because I knew that if they won, we might

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Speaker 4: get that three. Because it was sitting at three and

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Speaker 4: a half and now they're aretion threes. So question back,

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Speaker 4: Oh baby, better better bump, bump, go, pack go.

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Speaker 5: If presuming these injury reports come out clean, perhaps this

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Speaker 5: number moves higher. So for either of you, what would

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Speaker 5: you play too? Would you play a minus four if

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Speaker 5: it gets there? Would you play pasta?

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Speaker 4: That would depend on the Bucks injury report. I definitely

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Speaker 4: wouldn't lay more than four though yeah, yeah, we haven't

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Speaker 4: gotten that back Thursday report yet, but based on like

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Speaker 4: Dean and where he was trending, I don't think he's

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00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:07,040
Speaker 4: back this week either, So like their secondary is a disaster.

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Speaker 3: Same ball park. It was four, like I probably would

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Speaker 3: have it was four today.

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Speaker 1: I probably would have gone another direction for this podcast,

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Speaker 1: but still played it in terms of like what I

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Speaker 1: gave out overall, the.

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Speaker 7: Spot wasn't great for them Monday against the Giants. And

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Speaker 7: it's also a reminder too, like they're a young.

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Speaker 6: Team, the Packers. That's a big time win against can

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Speaker 6: I think the youngest team in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: It feels that way.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, So I mean you get a big time win

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Speaker 7: at home against Kansas City.

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Speaker 6: Let down.

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Speaker 7: Time to bounce back, Brandon, your second pick A little

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Speaker 7: different from you this week on this second pick.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, to get creative again. Not my favorite slaid out here.

401
00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:45,760
Speaker 5: I'm gonna take a teaser here, so it's trying to

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Speaker 5: figure out what's my other game here. I guess two

403
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Speaker 5: games in one. So I'm gonna tease the Kansas City

404
00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:53,960
Speaker 5: Chiefs minus and a half at New England. Teas that

405
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Speaker 5: down to minus one and a half, and then give

406
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Speaker 5: me the Niners. They are minus twelve at Arizona, so

407
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Speaker 5: tease that down to six. If you don't do teasers

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Speaker 5: a lot, you basically get to move the line six points.

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Speaker 5: It matters which six points these are chosen. In particular,

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Speaker 5: the Chiefs we cross off the seven, the three both

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Speaker 5: the key numbers there, and the Niners we get past

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Speaker 5: the seven. I think honestly, both of these lines have

413
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Speaker 5: dropped a bit this week, maybe move back up a

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Speaker 5: little bit to get past kind of teaser protection.

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Speaker 3: So we can't do this.

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Speaker 5: So I'm getting Chiefs minus one and a half at

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Speaker 5: the Patriots basically just have to win at that point, right,

418
00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:31,000
Speaker 5: Patriots aren't very good Patriots Like that was like a

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Speaker 5: kind sentence. The Patriots are bad, the Patriots are terrible.

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Speaker 5: The Chiefs need to win. I'm not worried about Pat

421
00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:38,480
Speaker 5: Mahomes against Belichick. I was enough to check into it.

422
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Speaker 5: His numbers have been fine. He's thrown I think ten

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Speaker 5: touchdowns in four games against them, is just that they

424
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Speaker 5: lost two of them. Because the defense can stop anybody.

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Speaker 5: Not a problem anymore because defense is pretty good for

426
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Speaker 5: the Chiefs. Tom Brady not playing for the Patriots anymore,

427
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Speaker 5: so solve that problem. Real good Patriots don't have a

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Speaker 5: pass rush. They're bad against the middle of the field,

429
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Speaker 5: that's where Travis Kelcey lives. They're bad against receiving running backs.

430
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Speaker 5: I think McKinnon could be another spot for him this week.

431
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Speaker 5: And normally this would be if it was a home team,

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Speaker 5: this would be a long teaser. It's not not a

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Speaker 5: good spot to tease a road team, particularly on the road,

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Speaker 5: just because the road is tough Pa mah Homes So

435
00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:19,080
Speaker 5: I'm just gonna take Pa Mahomes here. Seventeen and four

436
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Speaker 5: straight up in his career after a lost, He's lost

437
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Speaker 5: two in a row. He has never ever in his

438
00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:26,919
Speaker 5: life in the NFL lost three in a row. So

439
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Speaker 5: not gonna start in New England.

440
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Speaker 3: Yeah.

441
00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:32,600
Speaker 7: I would add to Brandon that it is a home

442
00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:35,240
Speaker 7: base for Taylor Swift, who is reportedly going to be

443
00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:38,960
Speaker 7: at the game. Taylor's first ever concert was at Jillette Stadium.

444
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:41,879
Speaker 7: She is loved in Foxboro and there's rumors she may

445
00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:45,520
Speaker 7: ring the bell in the big tower that they built

446
00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:48,639
Speaker 7: out there that the Craft folks. So it is it

447
00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:51,160
Speaker 7: is a home game for Taylor Swift because she does

448
00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:53,439
Speaker 7: Foxborough was close to homes. That is boting well for

449
00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:53,800
Speaker 7: you too.

450
00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 4: Taylor is from Why am missing Pennsylvania, Brandon, So I'm

451
00:19:57,080 --> 00:19:58,119
Speaker 4: not sure about that, but.

452
00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:00,959
Speaker 7: I said she her first ever the concert was at

453
00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:05,119
Speaker 7: Gialte home. There's a feeling for Taylor being there and

454
00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:07,960
Speaker 7: she's a Chiefs fan so as we all know.

455
00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:09,280
Speaker 6: But I just want to throw that in there.

456
00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,360
Speaker 5: So yeah, I love the Patriots here for Mius one

457
00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:14,439
Speaker 5: and sorry, I love the Chiefs against the Patriots. Here,

458
00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:16,040
Speaker 5: mius one and a half. This is the teaser leg

459
00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:18,600
Speaker 5: I really wanted. And frankly, I would probably just play

460
00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:20,760
Speaker 5: with the Rams, who I just gave out already. That

461
00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:22,720
Speaker 5: would be my best teaser play of the two legs.

462
00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:24,560
Speaker 5: But since I already did the Rams, E give me

463
00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:26,800
Speaker 5: the Niners. We get under the touchdown. I just had

464
00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,240
Speaker 5: to beat the Cardinals by touchdown. It is a little

465
00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:31,320
Speaker 5: bit of a trap game. It's another time for me

466
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:34,000
Speaker 5: taking a team coming off of a bye that's Arizona,

467
00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:38,919
Speaker 5: but in San Francisco has next week on Christmas Day, Baltimore.

468
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:41,160
Speaker 5: Like that's a look ahead spot, if ever there was one.

469
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:43,439
Speaker 5: I think that's why I don't necessarily want just the

470
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:47,640
Speaker 5: Niners inflated line here, Wow, we get under a touchdown again.

471
00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:48,560
Speaker 3: I don't need to mean the case.

472
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:50,359
Speaker 5: It's the Niners they're the best team in the league.

473
00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:52,199
Speaker 5: It's the Cardinals that they're not the best team in

474
00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:56,120
Speaker 5: the league. Niners defense has also been number one over

475
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:58,840
Speaker 5: the last five weeks, along with the offense, so that's

476
00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:01,960
Speaker 5: a huge difference. Forty Niners have scored twenty seven or

477
00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,919
Speaker 5: more in every game this season except when they lost.

478
00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:06,960
Speaker 5: So if you don't think they're gonna lose, they're gonna

479
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:09,879
Speaker 5: score twenty seven? Are the Cards scoring twenty one? I

480
00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:13,880
Speaker 5: don't think they do against this defense and Niners this season,

481
00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:17,240
Speaker 5: every win but one is by twelve or more points.

482
00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:19,560
Speaker 5: Even the one that wasn't still covered this line at

483
00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:24,320
Speaker 5: seven last twenty four games for the Niners twenty and four. Outright,

484
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:27,600
Speaker 5: they had big injuries in the four losses. Nineteen of

485
00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:30,639
Speaker 5: those twenty wins cover this teaser lined by seven or

486
00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:33,240
Speaker 5: more points. Well, they won by seven or more to

487
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:37,199
Speaker 5: cover the teaser line. So Chiefs teased to minus one

488
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 5: half Niners teased to minus six. And yeah, just you know,

489
00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:44,200
Speaker 5: give me the teams and quarterbacks that are good to

490
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,359
Speaker 5: get a win, and we're cheating a little bit to

491
00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 5: get one here hopefully.

492
00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:51,639
Speaker 7: Okay, very good second pick for Anthony Dubundo the cheese

493
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 7: had himself.

494
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, i'll tell you what. Zach Wilson is back.

495
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 4: And I wrote this in my column and said that

496
00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:00,919
Speaker 4: I kind of regretted missing the ten on the Jets

497
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:02,840
Speaker 4: and that I was probably going to pass here. But

498
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,120
Speaker 4: the more I've dug into this Miami situation, the more

499
00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 4: I'm concerned, and I don't really want to miss another

500
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 4: opportunity to fade them, because I had the spot circled

501
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:11,879
Speaker 4: last week and it wasn't going to take Tennessee, but

502
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 4: I wanted to take the Jets catching ten plus, thought

503
00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:17,480
Speaker 4: we would get ten plus. Then Miami went and choked

504
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 4: away that game. But the defense was the most alarming

505
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 4: thing for me for Miami. They gave up almost six

506
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:28,120
Speaker 4: yards per play to Tennessee. They got three very friendly,

507
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:32,919
Speaker 4: you know scores in that game and still lost.

508
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:35,960
Speaker 2: I mean, that's remarkable. And the way that this offense

509
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:36,480
Speaker 2: moved the ball.

510
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 4: A Tennessee offense which I am not high on, a

511
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:42,120
Speaker 4: Tennessee offense which has no line, was able to kind

512
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 4: of control the pass rush of Miami without Jalen Phillips.

513
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 4: So I think this Miami team is big, big fraud,

514
00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:50,640
Speaker 4: and I think they're still overvalued over a touchdown here,

515
00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:53,360
Speaker 4: especially when you throw in all of these offensive line.

516
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:55,359
Speaker 2: Injuries, which is the big thing. Right They lose Connor

517
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:56,160
Speaker 2: Williams for the year.

518
00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:59,679
Speaker 4: Their entire report injury report this week is littered with

519
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:03,400
Speaker 4: offense of lineman Eikenberg is on the list. Armstead didn't

520
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:07,600
Speaker 4: practice Wednesday. Austin Jackson is limited, So there's all kinds

521
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 4: of injuries here and now a Chans on the injury report. Again,

522
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 4: don't know how serious it is, but he didn't practice.

523
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 4: Tyreek Hills on the injury report. We saw how bad

524
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 4: their offense became when he left the game last week.

525
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 4: So I think Miami's overvalued. I think if you're looking

526
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 4: at like, who's the most overvalued team in the NFL

527
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:24,840
Speaker 4: right now that the Lions have been beaten down, it

528
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 4: might be Miami. So give me the Jets Zach Wilson

529
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:31,880
Speaker 4: plus eight and a half against Miami.

530
00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:34,679
Speaker 7: Swinging it back to brand at another angle on this

531
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 7: game Dolphins Jets.

532
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:39,439
Speaker 5: Yeah, similar but a little different, especially based on how

533
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 5: Dbundo framed this pick. I'm gonna go to that Jets

534
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,280
Speaker 5: Dolphins game. I'm gonna play the under thirty seven and

535
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:47,480
Speaker 5: a half. Really, I am wanting to bet against the Dolphins. Also,

536
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:51,160
Speaker 5: it's the Dolphins fade. I don't hate the defense quite

537
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 5: as much as where you're at on them. I just

538
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:56,359
Speaker 5: don't trust the Jets to score necessarily. So you know,

539
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:59,040
Speaker 5: Will Levis was like ripping it through the secondary, and

540
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:00,959
Speaker 5: I don't know that I trust Zach Wilson to do

541
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:04,040
Speaker 5: that here. The injuries, yeah, are a big thing. First

542
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 5: for Miami. You listed you listed a bunch of offensive

543
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:08,920
Speaker 5: line injuries and still didn't get to both of their

544
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 5: guards also injured, one on ir in, one that hasn't

545
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 5: a practiced yet this week. Like that is seven offensive

546
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 5: linemen that are potentially out in this game. And if

547
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 5: you look back earlier in the year when they got

548
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 5: crushed by Buffalo, when they had that downswing early in

549
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 5: the season after the hot start, that was against good teams,

550
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 5: it also was when the offensive line all got hurt.

551
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 5: Connor Williams was the number one graded center at PFF

552
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 5: so far this season. He's been awesome, especially in the

553
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 5: run game. Tron Armstead is the one elite alignment on

554
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,679
Speaker 5: the team. He's barely been able to play this season.

555
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 5: There are a lot of injuries on the defense also,

556
00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:48,359
Speaker 5: both safeties are injured, Seven Howard is injured, Andrew van

557
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 5: Ginkel their star pass rusher. Now with Phillips out, I'm

558
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:53,959
Speaker 5: assuming some of those guys will play. Obviously, since I

559
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:57,440
Speaker 5: like the defense here, but yeah, this is a fade

560
00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:00,320
Speaker 5: of the Miami offense against the Jets defense.

561
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:01,640
Speaker 3: Has still been elite.

562
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:05,280
Speaker 5: Despite everything, and we saw them do pretty well on

563
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:07,320
Speaker 5: Black Friday. I'll get to that game in a second.

564
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,119
Speaker 5: I just don't think that the Dolphins are gonna be

565
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:13,159
Speaker 5: able to score a ton here. Tula has struggled this

566
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 5: season when he takes longer to throw, because like that

567
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:19,360
Speaker 5: seems countertuitive. It's like, well, the line is bad, shouldn't

568
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:21,119
Speaker 5: they beginning them faster? The throw is getting out. No,

569
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:24,120
Speaker 5: it's that that read is not there right away. He's

570
00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 5: taken a little longer. The processing isn't great. He doesn't

571
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 5: have quite the same arm as somebody like a Will Levis,

572
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 5: and that first read isn't there. That immediate throw to

573
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 5: Waddle or to Tyreek, especially when Tyreek's not on the field,

574
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,399
Speaker 5: that's not there. And now it's not going well. I

575
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:40,919
Speaker 5: don't think I need to sell you too much on

576
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 5: the Jets not scoring. Zach Wilson battle line against still

577
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:47,440
Speaker 5: a pretty good pass rush. Finn's defense still fourth in

578
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:49,840
Speaker 5: DBA the last five games, So I'm not too worried

579
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 5: about what we saw in Tennessee. I think they're just

580
00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 5: like an overall letdown thing. Before last week, the Jets

581
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:58,440
Speaker 5: scored thirty then before then, they had thirteen points or

582
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:01,640
Speaker 5: less in six straight games. Like they don't have an offense.

583
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 5: It's just not happening. Zach Wilson hasn't fixed that. So

584
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:08,240
Speaker 5: to me, you got two top five defenses by the numbers,

585
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:10,520
Speaker 5: you have the worst offense in the league, and you

586
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 5: have a Dolphins offense that I just don't trust right

587
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:15,960
Speaker 5: now with all the injuries. And this looks like right

588
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:18,119
Speaker 5: now the biggest weather game of the weekend. YEP, we

589
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:22,159
Speaker 5: had sixteen million hour wins coming in here, Zach Wilson, TUA.

590
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 5: With those wins, I don't really trust them. Their games

591
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 5: with a ten million hour winder higher in the last

592
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:31,680
Speaker 5: three seasons, one six, seventy one and one to the

593
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 5: under sixty four percent, so about two thirds of the

594
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 5: time going under possible rain as well. Zach Wilson with

595
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:41,920
Speaker 5: total at forty one or below for his career nine

596
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 5: and two to the under by eight points a game

597
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 5: we have never had win. There's a total at forty

598
00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:48,720
Speaker 5: one or below is Zach Wilson starting. No one has

599
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,439
Speaker 5: ever scored forty in any of those games ever before,

600
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:53,160
Speaker 5: So we need a little lower. We need the thirty

601
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:54,919
Speaker 5: seven and a half here, but I trust them to

602
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:57,640
Speaker 5: get there. In that Black Friday game you may remember,

603
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 5: finished with forty seven points, two pick six is including

604
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 5: the fail mary at the end of the half or

605
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:06,680
Speaker 5: whatever we decide to call that, and two touchdowns in

606
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 5: garbage time the last five minutes. So outside of that,

607
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:11,840
Speaker 5: during the real portion of the game, the offense has

608
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:14,200
Speaker 5: put up a combined twenty points. So I actually feel

609
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 5: pretty good about that despite the total and Miami's offense.

610
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 5: Like Dbundo said, heading in the fourth quarter this Monday,

611
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 5: Miami had three points of offense, They had a pick

612
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 5: six that was gifted to them, and they had three points,

613
00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:28,919
Speaker 5: and then they got two fumbles inside the red zone

614
00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 5: late that gifted them the other touchdowns. So I just

615
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 5: don't trust Miami right now. I will fade them as

616
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:36,480
Speaker 5: the bundle is, but I'm gonna fade them with the

617
00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:38,359
Speaker 5: under here under thirty seven and a half.

618
00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:42,680
Speaker 7: Our colleague, Nick Giffen of the Predictive Analytics Team also

619
00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 7: identifies this game as a luck under. Jets Dolphins highlight

620
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 7: Zach Wilson, regressing to the Zach Wilson mean, and he

621
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 7: also highlights the injuries. Go read it. It's a popsicle

622
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 7: headache to try to read it on the air. To

623
00:27:58,040 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 7: read the article. I tell Nick this all the time.

624
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 7: It's great info, but you gotta read it. It's not

625
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 7: great for audio content.

626
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:04,640
Speaker 6: But go check that out.

627
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:06,679
Speaker 7: Action Network aut Nick Giffen has a breakdown on the

628
00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:09,719
Speaker 7: game why under is the look for him as far

629
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:10,880
Speaker 7: as a luck angle.

630
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:14,359
Speaker 6: Let's go to Luke for his last pick four week fifteen.

631
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:17,480
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go the Jags getting three and a half

632
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 1: hosting the Ravens on Sunday night, which I would probably

633
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 1: hop on this one sooner rather than later. There's threes showing,

634
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 1: but there's plenty of three and a halfs available currently

635
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 1: for grading purposes. But really, the Jaguars injury report came

636
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:37,439
Speaker 1: out and it was a click for me where their

637
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 1: offensive line was looking pretty tough until I want to say, yesterday,

638
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:45,239
Speaker 1: it looks like it's going to be back to the

639
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 1: normal in terms of starters, and then Kyle Hamilton being

640
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 1: out for the Ravens most likely is actually a pretty

641
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 1: big deal for them, which they were already struggling prior

642
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 1: to the Hamilton injury.

643
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 3: I mean, they.

644
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:59,120
Speaker 1: Almost as lost to the Rams, which I guess they

645
00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 1: wanted the punt return. For me, it's like you're downgrading

646
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 1: them a little bit. And maybe this is a personal opinion,

647
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 1: but like I just can't. I just Lamar was amazing

648
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:12,200
Speaker 1: in that game, but expecting him to have the same

649
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 1: type of performance again with this struggling defense on the road,

650
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 1: I just I'm gonna take the Jags, who have lost

651
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 1: two in a row two weeks ago is pretty bad.

652
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 1: I want to say two weeks ago. But last week,

653
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 1: like you got Trevor Lawrence coming playing who no one

654
00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 1: ever expected him to play with a high ankle sprain,

655
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 1: and if you had the Jags and pick and pools,

656
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:36,959
Speaker 1: you almost even covered.

657
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:38,960
Speaker 3: Like everyone that that one and a half.

658
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 1: They were pretty much in the clear but covering the

659
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 1: plus three and a half with that two point conversion,

660
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 1: which I had the Browns minus three and a half

661
00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 1: in my pick and pool, Like, I have no idea

662
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 1: how they almost cover that game, and like they just

663
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 1: grinded their way back. Now they're at home coming off

664
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 1: two straight losses, an extremely important game for them in

665
00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 1: terms of seeding. Lawrence should be healthier. I'm just gonna

666
00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 1: take the I just think this is a valuable that

667
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 1: that you're gonna win a lot more than you lose

668
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 1: in this type of spot. So give me the Jags

669
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 1: plus three and a half.

670
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 6: And on that same game, Dubundo Sunday night, you have

671
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:12,040
Speaker 6: an angle here too.

672
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:14,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, let's have a little meteorological minute, because I don't

673
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 4: understand this total. And the only explanation that makes any

674
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 4: sense to me is that the forecast is calling for

675
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 4: a lot of rain and a lot of wind. But

676
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 4: I went into some some weather stuff here and I'm

677
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 4: calling I'm calling BS on it. I don't think the

678
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 4: weather is going to be that bad. I looked at it.

679
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 4: The same weather system. It's a northeaster coming up the

680
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:36,760
Speaker 4: East coast, the same weather system that's going to cause

681
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 4: problems in Miami early with the wind at one o'clock,

682
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 4: and that could cause some rain late in the game

683
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 4: in Buffalo at four o'clock. They're also saying that, you know,

684
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:49,959
Speaker 4: the market is saying that this game at eight o'clock

685
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:52,240
Speaker 4: in Jacksonville is going to be impacted. And look, the

686
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 4: storm's moving pretty quickly northeast up the Eastern seaboard. By

687
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 4: eight o'clock, you're looking at much diminished wins. Yes, if

688
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 4: they were playing at one. At four, you're looking at

689
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 4: like twenty mile hour sustained wins. Huge impact on the

690
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 4: passing game, of course, but now you know by eight

691
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 4: o'clock even the forecasted wins are down, and traditionally on

692
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:12,520
Speaker 4: the back end of these nor'easters, the win tends to

693
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 4: be over forecasted this far out. So I think that

694
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 4: the market is too low on this total at forty

695
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 4: two and a half, and I'm going to play the

696
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:22,000
Speaker 4: over against it. I'm betting on this Jacksonville offense, which

697
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 4: even in a really tough spot.

698
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:25,040
Speaker 2: Like you said, last week, Luke.

699
00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 4: Put up twenty eight points against an elite defense, even

700
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:30,280
Speaker 4: though a lot of it came in the back door,

701
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 4: there's still going to be opportunities for that here.

702
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 2: This Ravens secondary is overrated. They have not looked.

703
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 4: As good against quality passers. We just saw that last week.

704
00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 4: The offensive line is getting healthy for Jacksonville. I think

705
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 4: they're in a pretty good scoring position. And this Jacksonville

706
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 4: defense has taken a complete noseedive in the last few weeks,

707
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 4: getting torched by you know, Jake Browning and Joe Flacco,

708
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 4: and back to back weeks now they have to do

709
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 4: with a Lamar who is playing as.

710
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:55,960
Speaker 2: Well as any quarterback in the NFL.

711
00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 4: He might not win MVP because stats say that per

712
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:03,320
Speaker 4: and Prescott are playing at a higher level and those

713
00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 4: offenses have been humming at a much more efficient level

714
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 4: than this Baltimore one.

715
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:08,480
Speaker 2: But he is cooking.

716
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 4: If you watch the All twenty two, you watch the

717
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 4: game on Sunday, then you know this. He made a

718
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 4: ton of awesome throws down the field. I don't think

719
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 4: they're gonna be able to run much on Jacksonville because

720
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:20,440
Speaker 4: Jacksonville traditionally is pretty good against the run, so that

721
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 4: means more passing. And with his weather not being as

722
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 4: bad as I think, I think this total is too low.

723
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 4: So over forty two and a half.

724
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 7: Brandon, I won't speak for you, but getting weather advice

725
00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 7: from someone wearing a cheesehead was something I'd never think

726
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 7: i'd get in my life. And I bring Brandon into

727
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:38,440
Speaker 7: the equation because this is opposite of his hot reed

728
00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 7: he had under forty three and a half that indeed

729
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:43,280
Speaker 7: has moved a point down to Dubundo's point.

730
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 6: Brandon, do you care to respond to the cheesehead meteorologists?

731
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 3: Yeah?

732
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 5: I mean, look part of the reason I took the

733
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 5: hot read is because the weather forecast did look even

734
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 5: the worse earlier in the week, so the Chiefs had

735
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:58,960
Speaker 5: forecast moving this direction. Basically, Basically where I'm at is this.

736
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 5: I would still under, but I would probably not bet

737
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 5: it new right now. I don't know that I will

738
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,320
Speaker 5: necessarily get out of it, and I wouldn't take the over.

739
00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:08,680
Speaker 5: But as I dug into the matchup here, I agree

740
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 5: with both defenses are trending down a little bit. A

741
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 5: lot of what Dubundo said makes sense from a matchup standpoint.

742
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 5: It's a primetime under it's a home underdog under the

743
00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 5: wind stuff potentially apply. It was a trends play for me,

744
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 5: but some of the trends looked a little less strong

745
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 5: as the injury reports come out and the weather reports,

746
00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 5: and the Chiefs had weather reports get a little bit

747
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:32,400
Speaker 5: better here. So yeah, I don't know. I actually considered

748
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 5: the Ravens in this game here as well for the podcast.

749
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 5: They're one of my picks I was thinking about at

750
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 5: the minus three, I might just be behind on them.

751
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 5: Maybe their defense is not quite what the metrics are

752
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:45,120
Speaker 5: making yet. It certainly was not last week, and that

753
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 5: was a pick that I lost out on, So I

754
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:50,560
Speaker 5: think I feel okay about staying away here, and I

755
00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 5: don't hate the pick here too much because I think

756
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 5: that my unders has not looked quite as good as

757
00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 5: I did early in the week, even though it did

758
00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:00,520
Speaker 5: move down a point, just because some of the other

759
00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:02,320
Speaker 5: stuff with the weather is probably going to move it back.

760
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 3: Yeah.

761
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 4: There's an old saying, like by the rumor, sell the news,

762
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:08,239
Speaker 4: and that's very true in weather capping, Like you'll see this.

763
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:10,440
Speaker 4: There was a big tropical storm last year in college football.

764
00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 4: Every total in the southeast dropped six points off of

765
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:16,879
Speaker 4: like the early line, and people just assume the weather

766
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 4: was going to stay the way it was.

767
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 2: Forecasts are very volatile, they'll change.

768
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:21,840
Speaker 4: It is more likely than not the weather will not

769
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 4: have an impact when the game actually comes around, and

770
00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:26,680
Speaker 4: you will get these certain examples where you may lose.

771
00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:29,839
Speaker 4: But all of those totals were way too low because

772
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 4: the storm passed and it went over.

773
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:32,440
Speaker 2: And it's kind of similar to last week.

774
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:33,759
Speaker 4: I mean, if there were a lot of totals early

775
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:36,279
Speaker 4: in the week, the Detroit game Chicago Detroit game, the

776
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 4: total crash from forty five to forty and you could

777
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 4: have gotten under forty five and over forty hit the middle,

778
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 4: the game closed forty four and the under one.

779
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 2: So the under early unders one, the late unders lost.

780
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:50,959
Speaker 4: So I think there's you know, if the weather's locked

781
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:53,799
Speaker 4: in for really bad different story, but here I think

782
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 4: there's much more of a chance.

783
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:56,479
Speaker 2: The weather improved than gets worse.

784
00:34:56,640 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 5: Well, here's here's hoping we land right on forty three

785
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 5: and accidentally middle and both wear picks cash for US

786
00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 5: forty three and a Jags cover by plus three and

787
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 5: we'll all get the end.

788
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 2: Twenty three, twenty ravens.

789
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:09,200
Speaker 3: There you go.

790
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:13,279
Speaker 7: We're a podcast of fairness and weather here on the

791
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:18,320
Speaker 7: Action Network podcast, speaking of West Day and Yes and Dary.

792
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:19,800
Speaker 2: Thank you, cheezhead.

793
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:23,759
Speaker 7: The Action Network podcast is presented by Bett MGM. Use

794
00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 7: bonus code Action when signing up to get up to

795
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:28,719
Speaker 7: fifteen hundred dollars paid back in bonus bets if your

796
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:37,200
Speaker 7: first bet loses. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

797
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:41,560
Speaker 7: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming,

798
00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:44,360
Speaker 7: terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older

799
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 7: gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. Speaking of the

800
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:51,319
Speaker 7: look Ahead, Brandon not only has won, but also a

801
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:54,640
Speaker 7: second look Ahead pick for week sixteen.

802
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:55,799
Speaker 6: What do you have for us?

803
00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:56,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, I had to do too.

804
00:35:56,920 --> 00:35:59,440
Speaker 5: I'm gonna be out next week traveling for the holidays.

805
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 5: Smith's gift from me to the listeners. Get a couple

806
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:05,040
Speaker 5: of picks out ahead here, And there were more picks

807
00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 5: I like for next week on the look Ahead than

808
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:08,600
Speaker 5: there was for this week, so I had to get

809
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 5: you two of them. I'm gonna start on Thursday night.

810
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:15,640
Speaker 5: Give me the Rams again, Rams minus four home against

811
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:18,719
Speaker 5: the Saints. This line we talked about in the slack

812
00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 5: a little before coming on. Basically, we're tweeting these teams

813
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,799
Speaker 5: as relative equals at a Rams minus four at home.

814
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:25,839
Speaker 5: I don't understand that.

815
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:26,120
Speaker 3: Now.

816
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:29,319
Speaker 5: On the surface, they're both six and seven the Ram.

817
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:31,440
Speaker 5: They are seventeenth in DVA for the season. The Saints

818
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:34,440
Speaker 5: are twenty first. Yeah, okay, it looks about right if

819
00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:36,200
Speaker 5: you're going by the whole season. But I think these

820
00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:38,759
Speaker 5: teams are like ships passing the night right now. The

821
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:41,280
Speaker 5: Rams we made the whole case earlier. Number nine DVA,

822
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:45,120
Speaker 5: the second best offense behind the Niners. The Saints over

823
00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 5: those same five games thirtieth in DVA. We talked about

824
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 5: fade the NFC South, Holy cow, they're terrible. And it's

825
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:55,759
Speaker 5: not just the bottom ten offense that's pretty normal for

826
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:59,200
Speaker 5: them this season. They're thirtieth on defense. The defense that's

827
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 5: been so good for so long has totally cretered. And

828
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:05,880
Speaker 5: their injury report is a disaster. Like it's just any

829
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:08,480
Speaker 5: think of a Saints name, you know, they're probably on

830
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:11,359
Speaker 5: the injury report. Now it's a short week, So then

831
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 5: what comes out? Who's going to be on the injury report?

832
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 5: Who plays? Does car play do? Like the you know,

833
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:18,400
Speaker 5: Crystal Lave has been in and out. We got a

834
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 5: bunch of defenders in and out. It would not surprise

835
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:22,600
Speaker 5: me to see some of those guys that not be

836
00:37:22,640 --> 00:37:24,279
Speaker 5: able to go on a Thursday game on such a

837
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 5: short week. So also on a short week, you get

838
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 5: Dennis Allen, the guy who I have loved to fade

839
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:33,040
Speaker 5: all year long, against Sean McVay. Sean McVay on a

840
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:35,000
Speaker 5: four day rest, like this is five and two against

841
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 5: the spread. I didn't look it up, but I'll just

842
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:39,160
Speaker 5: promise you right now, Dennis Allen not five and two

843
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:41,439
Speaker 5: against the spread in any trend you want to pick,

844
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:43,520
Speaker 5: He's not five and two. He's definitely not. On a

845
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:46,680
Speaker 5: short week all the injuries. I think the Rams run

846
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:48,720
Speaker 5: up the score in Washington, like we talked about earlier,

847
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:51,320
Speaker 5: I think the Saints might lose to the Giants. Honestly,

848
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:53,439
Speaker 5: I think that that is in play, and if they do,

849
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:56,319
Speaker 5: this line probably ends up more like a touchdown than

850
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:58,279
Speaker 5: closer to a field goal where it is now. So

851
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,400
Speaker 5: to me, I think this might be my look at

852
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:03,399
Speaker 5: the spot of the year. We talked on a little

853
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 5: bit at Tondo. I want to get your feet up

854
00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:07,200
Speaker 5: feedback on this because I think you played it and

855
00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:09,239
Speaker 5: I saw you on a Rams futures too.

856
00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:11,560
Speaker 3: Am I crazy? I think this line just feels a

857
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:11,959
Speaker 3: way off.

858
00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:14,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, No, I agree. I mean I'm low Saints have

859
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:17,480
Speaker 4: been all year. I was kind of a Rams uncertain

860
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 4: Now I'm all in. I've I've been betting the Rams

861
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:21,840
Speaker 4: the last two or three weeks. They were on the

862
00:38:21,840 --> 00:38:24,239
Speaker 4: show two weeks ago against the Browns, and I think

863
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 4: this team's starting in the corner offensively with Kyron back

864
00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 4: as well.

865
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:28,959
Speaker 2: So yeah, I agree. I also bet it today.

866
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, they win these two the Rams we gave out

867
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:34,719
Speaker 5: that I gave out, then they play the Giants. It's

868
00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:37,120
Speaker 5: Week eighteen against the Niners, and if they win that,

869
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:38,960
Speaker 5: they're basically one hundred percent to make the playoffs. The

870
00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:40,759
Speaker 5: Niners might be resting back then for all that we

871
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:44,400
Speaker 5: know as well, so that would be really good for them.

872
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:46,880
Speaker 5: That's the top two offenses right now, so I think

873
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:48,719
Speaker 5: the Rams could be competitive even if they need to

874
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:49,360
Speaker 5: win that game.

875
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:51,719
Speaker 4: The Rams' biggest problem right now is that they don't

876
00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 4: have the tie record against the Cheese, So if they

877
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:55,759
Speaker 4: were to finish tied with them at nine to eight,

878
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:58,319
Speaker 4: which is a very real possibility, they would be out.

879
00:38:58,800 --> 00:38:59,040
Speaker 3: Yep.

880
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:03,120
Speaker 5: Okay, all right, So that's my one look ahead for

881
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 5: next week. Rams minus four. Then the other one got

882
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:08,680
Speaker 5: to give my hometown area here a little love. Give

883
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:12,440
Speaker 5: me the Chicago Bears minus three home against the Cardinals

884
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 5: again minus three at home. We're basically saying these teams

885
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:17,960
Speaker 5: are equals. Why are we saying the Bears and Cardinals

886
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:20,160
Speaker 5: are equals? The Cardinals stink. The Bears do not stink.

887
00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:22,320
Speaker 5: Right now, the Bears have been like pretty quality lately,

888
00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 5: even this by DVA. The Bears are almost at the

889
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:27,400
Speaker 5: the Cards are almost at the bottom. Bears are twenty third.

890
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:30,799
Speaker 5: Twenty third is just like bad, not terrible. Those matter

891
00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:33,840
Speaker 5: being different. Cardinals are bottom three defensively, you know, like

892
00:39:33,880 --> 00:39:36,799
Speaker 5: any metric you choose, DVA EPA success rate.

893
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 3: All of the above.

894
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:41,319
Speaker 5: Their offense hasn't been a lot better with Kyler, and

895
00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:44,239
Speaker 5: it's worse on the road all year. Bears offense, I

896
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 5: think honestly, is probably about as good or better as

897
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:50,279
Speaker 5: the Cardinals offense. And then defenses are not close. The

898
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:53,880
Speaker 5: Cardinals defense is terrible. The Bears defense last five games

899
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:57,239
Speaker 5: is third in DVOA. We all ripped them for the

900
00:39:57,280 --> 00:40:01,240
Speaker 5: Montes sweat trade between him and Alan Johnson. That defense,

901
00:40:01,280 --> 00:40:03,799
Speaker 5: Matt Eberfluss is cooking, and that defense is going to

902
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 5: really go Lately. Since the first month of the season

903
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:10,880
Speaker 5: from MINA chimes, Bears are second defensively in EPA per play,

904
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:13,760
Speaker 5: behind only the Jets, their fourth in yards per play.

905
00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:16,960
Speaker 5: Like this defense is the real deal right now, in

906
00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:19,840
Speaker 5: this defense at home against the Cardinals in a spot

907
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:23,200
Speaker 5: where the Cardinals frankly want to lose to keep their

908
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:25,480
Speaker 5: top pick and keep Marvin Harrison on their team, not

909
00:40:25,520 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 5: the Bears.

910
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:27,359
Speaker 2: The Bears don't really care.

911
00:40:27,480 --> 00:40:30,680
Speaker 5: The Bears have the Panthers pick another NFC seuth fade

912
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:31,879
Speaker 5: so they can just go on and win.

913
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:33,680
Speaker 2: In fact, I looked.

914
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:36,560
Speaker 5: Up Bears playoff odds this week plus fourteen hundred. By

915
00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:38,560
Speaker 5: the way, I'm not doing it. That's not a pick.

916
00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:40,440
Speaker 5: I'm not giving it out. But the fact that I

917
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:43,239
Speaker 5: considered it tells you if the Bears are hanging around

918
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:46,239
Speaker 5: enough to try here, which they are so far. I

919
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 5: think the Bears possibly beat the Browns this week. We

920
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 5: talked about that earlier. The Cardinals should get crushed by

921
00:40:51,520 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 5: the Niners. Based on the line. It's another one where

922
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 5: certainly I expected to go past the key number. I'm

923
00:40:56,960 --> 00:41:00,480
Speaker 5: surprised us not already. It is actually a couple of books. Again,

924
00:41:00,960 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 5: I had to give up both these look aheads. I

925
00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:04,920
Speaker 5: think they should both be near a touchdown, and I

926
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:07,920
Speaker 5: would be not surprised if they both get there by

927
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:12,320
Speaker 5: early next week. So Rams minus four Thursday night against

928
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:15,560
Speaker 5: the Saints and then Chicago Bears on I believe Christmas

929
00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:18,240
Speaker 5: Eve minus three against the Cardinals.

930
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:23,399
Speaker 7: Okay, two Christmas stocking stuffers from Brandon Anderson before he

931
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 7: heads off so.

932
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:26,600
Speaker 6: We won't hear from Brandon next week. Thank you, Brandon.

933
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:27,600
Speaker 6: Enjoy the holiday.

934
00:41:27,640 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 7: We've let us going to do it here on the

935
00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:34,239
Speaker 7: Action Network podcast for NFL Week fifteen Best Bets presented

936
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 7: by Bett MGM. The full betting preview Sunday six pack

937
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 7: with Chris Raybond and Stuckey is available now. You can

938
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:45,799
Speaker 7: also tune into the weekly recap episode, Brandon. So you

939
00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:47,640
Speaker 7: won't be on that next week, Brandon, or will you?

940
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:48,600
Speaker 3: I will be on.

941
00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:50,960
Speaker 5: I will have my hot read this Sunday night. Still,

942
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:53,520
Speaker 5: I'm just off the Best Bets episode next week, and

943
00:41:53,600 --> 00:41:55,920
Speaker 5: don't worry, I'll be coming to you from Live from

944
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 5: the North Pole aka North Dakota after that.

945
00:41:58,680 --> 00:42:01,480
Speaker 6: Okay, very good? Sounds good? All right, So there you go.

946
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:04,240
Speaker 7: Yeah, Brandon with the hot reed coming up Monday morning.

947
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:07,080
Speaker 7: First thing, Joe Glan, Evan Abrams, they recap the weekend

948
00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:09,399
Speaker 7: and they'll have Brandon's hot read Monday night.

949
00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 6: Football, all that good stuff.

950
00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:13,880
Speaker 7: Don't forget to download the free, award winning Action Network

951
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:15,320
Speaker 7: app to see all these guys picks.

952
00:42:15,640 --> 00:42:18,360
Speaker 6: Also track your own. Check out the Action Network Discord

953
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:19,719
Speaker 6: channel as well.

954
00:42:19,440 --> 00:42:22,360
Speaker 7: To chop it up with the experts and fellow gamblers.

955
00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 7: It's a great way to come together, a good community

956
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:27,399
Speaker 7: build as it pertains to NFL betting. Best of luck

957
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:29,520
Speaker 7: with all of your bets this weekend, everybody for Luke

958
00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 7: Brandon and Dubundo aka the Cheesehead aka.

959
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:36,280
Speaker 6: The meteorologist on the show brandan glass sheet.

960
00:42:36,320 --> 00:42:39,799
Speaker 7: This is the Action Network podcast presented by BETMG Good Luck.

961
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:59,840
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

962
00:42:59,880 --> 00:43:02,719
Speaker 4: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

963
00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:05,840
Speaker 4: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler