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Speaker 1: Medals.

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Speaker 2: They remain under pressure, that is, despite production cuts from

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Speaker 2: companies in the space. And for more on insight into

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Speaker 2: the challenges in the metal market and the outlook for

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four. And please to say that we're joined

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Speaker 2: now by Robert Friedland. He is Ivanhoe Mines founder and

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Speaker 2: executive co chairman. Great to have you in person. Let's

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Speaker 2: talk about copper, because you take a look at the

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Speaker 2: price of copper, we're around eighty three thousand dollars or so.

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Speaker 2: We know that we've seen plenty of supply shocks in

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Speaker 2: this market, and it feels like the price has barely budged.

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Speaker 2: Does this come down to a demand story?

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Speaker 1: Goldman Sachs has just published today calling for over nine

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Speaker 1: thousand dollar a ton copper this year. We think copper

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Speaker 1: is making a bottom. I'll be willing to wager on

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Speaker 1: ninety five hundred a ton before we go down to

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Speaker 1: seventy five hundred a ton. The physical market is very

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Speaker 1: very tight and now in deficit, and with a FED

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Speaker 1: likely to cut rates, the dollar denominated price to copper

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Speaker 1: is likely to go up a lot this year. By

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Speaker 1: the middle of the year.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about China, because I don't need to

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Speaker 2: tell you that a lot of the bearish cases for copper,

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Speaker 2: they really come back to sluggish Chinese demand. How does

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Speaker 2: that factor into your pretty bullish view here, It's not true.

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Speaker 1: China I consume more copper last year than any year before,

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Speaker 1: so Chinese demand is still very strong. Everybody knows about

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Speaker 1: the weak real estate market in China, which is probably

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Speaker 1: twenty to twenty five percent of their economy. But military demand,

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Speaker 1: national security demand, demand for militarization is very high, and

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Speaker 1: so physical offtake is very strong and inventories are extremely low.

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Speaker 1: So really this is like a powder keg ready to

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Speaker 1: explode as soon as the FED cuts rates in the

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Speaker 1: second half.

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Speaker 2: So a red herring on the Chinese demand.

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Speaker 1: Forget about the Chinese demand. India is growing, Europe is growing,

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Speaker 1: the rest of the world's growing in the demand for ESG,

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Speaker 1: and the greening of the world economy remains very strong.

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Speaker 2: All Right, I'm going to forget about it for at

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Speaker 2: least a couple of minutes. Let's talk about fifteen thousand dollars.

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Speaker 2: Because you joined BTV last month, you made waves by

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Speaker 2: saying that we need a copper price of fifteen thousand

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Speaker 2: dollars a ton to really stimulate and sustain new investment

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Speaker 2: in copper. Minds, of course, copper is at almost half

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Speaker 2: of that price today. What does the roads to fifteen

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Speaker 2: thousand look like? What do we need to happen?

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Speaker 1: We've seen mo libdanum go from a dollar a pound

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Speaker 1: to thirty dollars a pound. We see metals go crazy

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Speaker 1: when you need them. If somebody is pointing a gun

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Speaker 1: at you, you need that copper to shoot back. You

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Speaker 1: don't do an MPV model. So we see massive military demand.

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Speaker 1: Europe is rearming, Japan is rearming, Taiwan wants to turn

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Speaker 1: into a big porcupine. The United States military is worried

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Speaker 1: about a shortage of one hundred and fifty five millimeter howartzershells,

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Speaker 1: what do you think the world's army is made out of?

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Speaker 1: As all this shooting goes on, and meantime, we have

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Speaker 1: a huge amount of humanity that wants to green in

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Speaker 1: the world economy, building electric cars, windmills, so everything you

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Speaker 1: touch requires copper metal in the modern economy, including this

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Speaker 1: wonderful studio where we're sitting smiling at each other.

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Speaker 2: Well, Robert, I have to say, I hope I never

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Speaker 2: need copper that badly. But let's assume that we say

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Speaker 2: around these levels eighty three thousand dollars or so, what

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Speaker 2: would that mean for the legacy minds that are in

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Speaker 2: business right now?

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Speaker 1: The legacy minds are in the process of slowly dying.

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Speaker 1: They're very low grade, they're generating more and more global

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Speaker 1: warming gas per unit of production. It's really really difficult

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Speaker 1: to bring a copper mind into production. Usually takes twenty

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Speaker 1: years or so for a tier one mind to be discovered,

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Speaker 1: built and constructed. And we've had such a long period

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Speaker 1: of time when all the money in the world went

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Speaker 1: into your previous guests like Netflix or broadband or wireless

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Speaker 1: or really sexy disruptive technology, and we didn't put money

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Speaker 1: into mining, into basic raw materials, and so this is

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Speaker 1: the revenge of the old economy. And suddenly we have

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Speaker 1: a shortage of these metals, and so it's inevitable that

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Speaker 1: the price will rise. It's only a question of when.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's talk a little bit more about those legacy minds,

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Speaker 2: in your words, in the process of slowly dying. What

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Speaker 2: sort of timeline does that play out.

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Speaker 1: Over Kidelko, which is that been the largest historical producer

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Speaker 1: in Chile has watched production go down, down, down, ten

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Speaker 1: years in a row. So the Chilean mines at a

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Speaker 1: high elevation take large amounts of electrical energy. Their grid

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Speaker 1: is powered by coal. There's a huge amount of global

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Speaker 1: warming gas period of copper. What's the point of trying

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Speaker 1: to mind copper to green the world economy if we

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Speaker 1: have to destroy the environment to find that copper. So

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Speaker 1: the problem is there aren't very many places where you

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Speaker 1: can build a green new copper mind to put into

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Speaker 1: your tesla or your microwave oven or your washing machine.

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Speaker 2: Well, the thinking is that, of course, as we think

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Speaker 2: about that backdrop that minds are going to increasingly need

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Speaker 2: to be developed in really tough jurisdictions. Of course, you

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Speaker 2: do have a successful track record there. You think about Mongolia,

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Speaker 2: the Democratic Republic of Congo. How does that differ building

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Speaker 2: a mine there versus Australia or the United State for example.

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Speaker 1: Australia United States are very difficult jurisdictions. There's no easy

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Speaker 1: mining project anywhere in the world. You take the Pebble

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Speaker 1: Project in the United States, it's been legislated out of

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Speaker 1: existence by the US government. The Resolution Project in Arizona

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Speaker 1: has been delayed for thirty years in a permitting dispute

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Speaker 1: with the San Juan Apache Nation. So even in developed societies,

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Speaker 1: it's very difficult to build a mind. From our point

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Speaker 1: of view, we go anywhere on the planet where we

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Speaker 1: see the best or and the opportunity to produce metal

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Speaker 1: in the greenest possible way. Ninety nine percent of electricity

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Speaker 1: in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is hydro electricity,

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Speaker 1: which enables us to produce the metal with the lowest

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Speaker 1: amount of global warming gas per unit of copper produced.

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Speaker 1: And soon we'll have differential pricing in metals. The greener

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Speaker 1: the production of the metal, the more the premium, and

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Speaker 1: the dirty of the production of the metal, the greater

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Speaker 1: level discount. Abex Technologies is now starting such a market

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Speaker 1: in Singapore giving you different financial pricing on the ESG

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Speaker 1: characteristics of the metal produced.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's talk a little bit more about your project

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Speaker 2: in Congo, because that produced almost four hundred thousand tons

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Speaker 2: of copper in twenty twenty three. You're also still expanding

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Speaker 2: the mind as well. How could could it get? How

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Speaker 2: big could it get?

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Speaker 1: Rather, we're scheduled to be the third largest copper complex

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Speaker 1: in the world in twenty twenty five, and we have

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Speaker 1: our site set for sure on number two. With new

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Speaker 1: discoveries and God willing, it's possible to be number one.

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Speaker 1: There's an enormous endominent of copper metal. The Congo was

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Speaker 1: the world's largest historical producer of copper until the low

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Speaker 1: grade copper minds of Chile were invented in the nineteen sixties,

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Speaker 1: and the Congo is now the second largest producer after Chile.

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Speaker 1: This is something new and so we think the Congo

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Speaker 1: has the potential in mineral production be number one, especially

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Speaker 1: since the United States government has sponsored the Lobito Quarter

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Speaker 1: to connect the copper fields of the Congo directly with

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Speaker 1: the ocean through Angola. That Low Beto Corridor, which the

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Speaker 1: Biden administration has back for the G seven Nations, is

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Speaker 1: really going to improve the ability to produce copper cheaply

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Speaker 1: and in a green way in the Democratic Republic of

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Speaker 1: the Congo.

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Speaker 2: Well, Robert really hope to check in with you soon.

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Speaker 2: Great to see you on set. That is Robert Freelan

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Speaker 2: of Ivanhoe Mines