Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: The single best idea and the single best idea coming
Speaker 2: out of this Friday into the weekend is really pay
Speaker 2: attention to what smart people are writing. It takes some
Speaker 2: time to write those essays. They don't just happen overnight.
Speaker 2: Trust me, they're not using chat GPT. And the answer is,
Speaker 2: what I'll be doing this weekend is thinking about our
Speaker 2: conversations that we had, but also looking at essays in
Speaker 2: real time. Late last night, Adam Posen of Foreign Affairs
Speaker 2: Magazine and the Peterson Institute published a short, brilliant piece
Speaker 2: on trade, like you know, like Paul Krugman would do,
Speaker 2: urs Glenn Hubbard would do. Forget about the politics of it, Republicans, Democrats,
Speaker 2: Just what do we know about trade? And I really
Speaker 2: urge you to listen for that within our conversations. An
Speaker 2: exhausting day, but just exhilarating with the quality of the
Speaker 2: guests we had. Really tried to stay on the markets.
Speaker 2: At Bank of America, she invented their quantitative ESG analysis.
Speaker 2: She is their US equity strategist with a huge global reach.
Speaker 2: Savita's Supermanian on the moment.
Speaker 3: If you look back on what happened in prior periods
Speaker 3: of protectionism, prior periods of stagflation, whatever we're heading into.
Speaker 3: Value stocks outperformed treasury bonds by a massive margin. The
Speaker 3: last thing you want to be stuck in during a
Speaker 3: stagflationary environment is long duration bonds. They have no options,
Speaker 3: whereas stocks, to me, are the best place to be.
Speaker 3: In an environment where you need those options, companies can
Speaker 3: extend or shorten their duration. We saw this with Meta
Speaker 3: and Google in twenty twenty three. They both initiated dividends
Speaker 3: and transition from being just pure growth to value. I
Speaker 3: think this is a really interesting time to think about
Speaker 3: value equities. Companies that are returning capital, like utilities, even
Speaker 3: metals and mining, even you know energy companies that were
Speaker 3: the dividends or sacro SANCD. I think those are areas
Speaker 3: that you really want to think about.
Speaker 2: Savina Supermanian. Now it's time for clinic. I want to
Speaker 2: get this in before we get the Jordan Rochester. It's
Speaker 2: just as simple as this. The financial media, out of convenience,
Speaker 2: like think Bobby exel ro Out on billions, we conveniently
Speaker 2: quote fixed income dynamics off of yield and is the
Speaker 2: wonderful Liz Goldenberg. She once cut me over my left eye.
Speaker 2: Here she threw a manalo blonic shoe at me and
Speaker 2: the heel hit me just above the eye. Had two
Speaker 2: stitches from Liz Goldenberg. She was so angry at me
Speaker 2: because in times of crisis, yield doesn't matter, and what
Speaker 2: matters is price. And in the old days, like in
Speaker 2: my ute, we quoted yield and price together and then
Speaker 2: that went away and the financialization in the last thirty
Speaker 2: years or so. I can't emphasize enough. When you see
Speaker 2: yield up, what people in bow ties are really saying
Speaker 2: is price down. And that's where we are on this Friday,
Speaker 2: and I have no idea where we'll be on Monday.
Speaker 2: If you think you do, you know, just good luck
Speaker 2: with that. The answer is every time somebody quotes yield,
Speaker 2: think price down, because that's really what's going on here.
Speaker 2: Whether you're Jamie Diamond or somebody with a Christmas Club
Speaker 2: account at JP Morgan. Jordan Rochester does not have a
Speaker 2: Christmas Club account at a big bank. He's at Missouo,
Speaker 2: hardwired into the flows around the world, particularly from China
Speaker 2: and his Japan and London. Jordan Rochester on flows.
Speaker 4: Well, my key can ERNs earlier this week was about
Speaker 4: dollar funding because the whole world was facing such higher
Speaker 4: tariff rates. For US, what you're going to see is
Speaker 4: that exporters to the US were no longer going to
Speaker 4: receive their dollar receipts, and then dollar funding would become
Speaker 4: an issue. The only good news that I can give
Speaker 4: you is that you just had a record Q one
Speaker 4: imports in America and so a lot of these exporters
Speaker 4: around the world will be sitting on a dollar cash
Speaker 4: pile that's a little bit more healthier than usual. Now
Speaker 4: we've had this ninety day reprieve at ten percent tarif rates.
Speaker 4: I do see the flows of commerce still taking place
Speaker 4: between Europe and the rest, but the problems with China
Speaker 4: with these extreme tariffs that we have. We've got one
Speaker 4: hundred and forty five percent tarifrate on China. It's the largest,
Speaker 4: one of the largest trading partners in the world with
Speaker 4: the US, and so you're going to see a dollar
Speaker 4: quizy issue at some point unless we have a climbed down.
Speaker 2: Jordan Rochester of Mazoo and again their team is outstanding,
Speaker 2: dominant constant, Stephen Roshudo and Jordan Rochester. Look for their published,
Speaker 2: Look for their work, I should say published this weekend.
Speaker 2: You'll see some of those headlines out on the Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: I think we'll leave it at that. What I know
Speaker 2: is I got a euro at one fourteen. I think
Speaker 2: I just had a one fifty two one excuse me,
Speaker 2: four p fifty two four point fifty three ten year yield.
Speaker 2: Let me know if you know. We're going to be
Speaker 2: on Monday. Right now, we're on YouTube, podcasts and of
Speaker 2: course all of the work we do. Thank you for
Speaker 2: an exhausting week and for your attention to single best idea.