WEBVTT - The New York Case Spike

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's stayed two hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and three since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's

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<v Speaker 1>main story cases are once again ticking up in New

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<v Speaker 1>York City, a former virus hotspot that has managed to

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<v Speaker 1>keep its rates low for months. But first, here's what

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<v Speaker 1>happened in virus news today. In the US, COVID nineteen

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<v Speaker 1>extended its march across the Midwest. On Tuesday, cases surged

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<v Speaker 1>in North Dakota, making its outbreak as bad as Floridas

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<v Speaker 1>was in July. Cases were also on the rise in

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<v Speaker 1>South Dakota and Wisconsin. In North Dakota, the seven day

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<v Speaker 1>average of new cases climbed to a new record, according

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<v Speaker 1>to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg News.

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<v Speaker 1>Deaths are climbing too, but they typically appear in the

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<v Speaker 1>data weeks after cases. A potentially game changing COVID test

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<v Speaker 1>has been cleared for use in some European countries. The test,

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<v Speaker 1>made by US company Beckton Dickinson, returns results in just

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<v Speaker 1>fifteen minutes. It's part of a new class of quicker

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<v Speaker 1>screening tools that detect proteins called antigens they detect on

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<v Speaker 1>the surface of stars. Covey too. Beckton Dickinson expects to

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<v Speaker 1>begin selling the test, which runs on the company's cell

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<v Speaker 1>phone sized bt Veritor Plus system, in European markets by

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<v Speaker 1>the end of October. It will likely be used by

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<v Speaker 1>emergency departments, general practitioners, and pediatricians. Finally, a sobering new

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<v Speaker 1>report shows that one in every one thousand children in

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<v Speaker 1>New York State lost a parent to COVID nineteen between

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<v Speaker 1>March and July. That's according to an analysis by United

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<v Speaker 1>Hospital Fund and Boston Consulting Group. The report shows as

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<v Speaker 1>many as three hundred and twenty five thousand children were

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<v Speaker 1>pushed into or near poverty by the pandemic related economic downturn.

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<v Speaker 1>That brings us to today's main story. New York and

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<v Speaker 1>in particular, New York City was hit hardest in the

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<v Speaker 1>early months of the pandemic in the US, but after

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<v Speaker 1>a strict lockdown, the city has enjoyed months of the

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<v Speaker 1>lowest case rates in the country. Now, though, the city

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<v Speaker 1>is starting to see a turn that it has long feared.

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<v Speaker 1>As schools reopened and the weather gets cooler, cases have

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<v Speaker 1>begun to rise. Its rate of positive cases exceeded three

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<v Speaker 1>for the first time in months, and the mayor is

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<v Speaker 1>considering shutting select schools and businesses in the zip codes

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<v Speaker 1>driving the increase. Senior Editor for Health Drew Armstrong has

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<v Speaker 1>been tracking New York City's efforts to recover from the

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<v Speaker 1>outbreaks devastating toll and to safely repair its wounded economy.

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<v Speaker 1>I spoke to Drew earlier today. After several months of

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<v Speaker 1>declining case rates, New York and New York City in

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<v Speaker 1>particular is starting to see a spike in COVID nineteen cases.

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<v Speaker 1>What's going on here? I think what we're beginning to

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<v Speaker 1>see right now with the increase in cases is in

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<v Speaker 1>some ways really really unsurprising. If you think about how

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<v Speaker 1>viruses infect people, they need interactions between sick people and

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<v Speaker 1>healthy people. And the more interactions of people that you have,

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<v Speaker 1>the more chances you have for a virus to transmit.

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<v Speaker 1>And what's been going on in New York is that

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<v Speaker 1>we're seeing children go back to school, um restaurants are

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<v Speaker 1>opening back up, people are going back into their offices,

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<v Speaker 1>and every single one of those things essentially represents a

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<v Speaker 1>new opportunity for the virus. And so if you talk

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<v Speaker 1>to epidemiologists and people who study infectious disease. Then you

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<v Speaker 1>know they would tell you that this isn't shocking at all.

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<v Speaker 1>It's in fact exactly what you would expect to see happen.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, the more you open up, the more cases

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<v Speaker 1>you're going to get. The big question is what happens

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<v Speaker 1>now next? And are the public health measures that are

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<v Speaker 1>in place social distancing, masking, limited capacity in all of

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<v Speaker 1>these places, are they enough to keep this tamped down

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<v Speaker 1>at a elevated but under control number of cases, or

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<v Speaker 1>are we at the start of a new surge. So

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<v Speaker 1>I was wondering if we might drill down in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of where we're seeing this this new spike in cases,

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<v Speaker 1>what are the communities or what are the geographies that

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<v Speaker 1>we're really seeing these new cases emerging. Well, right now,

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<v Speaker 1>we're seeing these cases emerge in a handful of neighborhoods

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<v Speaker 1>in Brooklyn, and we've seen the city push back and

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<v Speaker 1>say we're going to go in and try and push

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<v Speaker 1>very hard on better public health practices in some of

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<v Speaker 1>those places. And I think what's important to remember here

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<v Speaker 1>is that you know, again, think about the virus not

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<v Speaker 1>as a countrywide phenomenon or a statewide phenomenon or a

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<v Speaker 1>citywide phenomenon. This is really something that spreads in communities,

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<v Speaker 1>and so you have to think about infections as happening

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<v Speaker 1>in communities, and communities can be everything from you know,

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<v Speaker 1>somebody's workplace to the church they go to, to the

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<v Speaker 1>restaurant they eat, to their group of friends. All of

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<v Speaker 1>these outbreaks tend to start locally and then spread, and

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<v Speaker 1>every single thing that we've seen um with this virus

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<v Speaker 1>has has been that way. It is. This is a

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<v Speaker 1>human to human virus, which is why you know when

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<v Speaker 1>public health workers are doing contact tracing, they're looking for

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<v Speaker 1>the people you've been in touch with. And that's exactly

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<v Speaker 1>how these types of diseases work. They are hyper hyper hyperlocal,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's how they begin in outbreaks before then becoming

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<v Speaker 1>more widespread potentially. Do you think then this actually makes

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<v Speaker 1>it a much more difficult job for saying, un disciple

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<v Speaker 1>or local or even state government to really impose effective

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<v Speaker 1>um SAVE restrictions are effective new guidelines because things are

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<v Speaker 1>so hyper local. As you were saying, well, I think

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<v Speaker 1>what you see is that there is a effort to

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<v Speaker 1>try and get the communities where these are happening to

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<v Speaker 1>really up their public health protections and that can have

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<v Speaker 1>a real effect from everything that we know. Um, the

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<v Speaker 1>other question is does it escape those communities? You know,

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<v Speaker 1>if you have a group of people who aren't necessarily

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<v Speaker 1>complying with some of the public health guidelines like masking

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<v Speaker 1>and social distancing, can the virus then escape from one

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<v Speaker 1>of those outbreaks into a wider population that is complying

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<v Speaker 1>Or are are the the public health efforts like a

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<v Speaker 1>mask like social distancing, Are they sufficient to keep the

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<v Speaker 1>virus from developing into a wider outbreak because it's not

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<v Speaker 1>as easily able to gain hold in the broader population

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<v Speaker 1>going into perhaps one specific type of community duty. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's hard to escape the fact that we're here

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<v Speaker 1>at the end of September, and this was the month

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<v Speaker 1>that a lot of New York schools started to reopen.

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<v Speaker 1>So what do you think this this means for schools

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<v Speaker 1>who perhaps have just reopened with this new spike in cases?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I can I can tell you from a

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<v Speaker 1>bit of personal experience. I live north of New York

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<v Speaker 1>City and a colleague, UM just got noticed that the

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<v Speaker 1>middle school here is going to remote learning. After a

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<v Speaker 1>couple of cases. UM. I think one of the things

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<v Speaker 1>that you will almost certainly see happen is this kind

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<v Speaker 1>of on again, off again um practice with school where

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<v Speaker 1>even with the restrictions and schools have put in place

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<v Speaker 1>to limit some of the numbers of students that are

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<v Speaker 1>in place, you're going to see, you know, cases pop up.

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<v Speaker 1>Schools temporarily go to remote learning fully while it gets resolved,

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<v Speaker 1>students are back for a while, then they go back

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<v Speaker 1>to a remote learning because more cases pop up. If

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<v Speaker 1>you have virus circulating in the community and you have schools,

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<v Speaker 1>they're open and then with a trigger to close if

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<v Speaker 1>they get things. You know, it makes a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>sense that you would see this kind of on off

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<v Speaker 1>switch happening over and over again. That's probably really frustrating

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<v Speaker 1>to parents. UM. And I think we'll need to see

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<v Speaker 1>how effective it is in terms of controlling potential outbreaks.

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<v Speaker 1>And let's focus on the economic impact. What does this

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<v Speaker 1>mean for the businesses or restaurants that have survived until

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<v Speaker 1>now but are looking ahead and don't really see an

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<v Speaker 1>end to this virus and potentially virus related restrictions. I

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<v Speaker 1>think that's always been the concern, you know, that we

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<v Speaker 1>would see a rising cases that are that that is

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<v Speaker 1>large enough for there to be more locked on to.

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<v Speaker 1>Other countries have done this. I mean, the UK's in

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<v Speaker 1>the middle of it right now, Israel has and so

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<v Speaker 1>just because you've opened back up doesn't necessarily mean that

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<v Speaker 1>you are able to stay open if things get really

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<v Speaker 1>really bad. Comply into with a lot of these public

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<v Speaker 1>health measures seems to be very good. UM. I've had

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<v Speaker 1>conversations with people who are working on the city's outbreak UM,

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<v Speaker 1>both inside the city government UM and outside consultants to it,

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<v Speaker 1>who think that the city has been, you know, as

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<v Speaker 1>thoughtful as they possibly can be. You're also seeing an

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<v Speaker 1>effort to balance the fact that you know, people do

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<v Speaker 1>eventually tire of the kind of strictest levels of compliance

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<v Speaker 1>with everything shut down UM, and also the fact that

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<v Speaker 1>you know there are businesses and livelihoods UM at stake

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<v Speaker 1>here UM that are that are in play, and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>public health officials working with the city and working with

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<v Speaker 1>health experts trying to figure out where how far can

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<v Speaker 1>we open and what is the right and safe way

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<v Speaker 1>to open in order to keep this disease under control.

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<v Speaker 1>I think, you know, until we have a vaccine or UM,

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<v Speaker 1>some level of population wide immunity. This doesn't disappear, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>it doesn't go away, and so you're always dealing with

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<v Speaker 1>some baseline level of cases. The question is does it

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<v Speaker 1>become bigger than that? And does it does it emerge

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<v Speaker 1>into a full blown out of control outbreak like we

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<v Speaker 1>had earlier this spring? And so looking forward, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we're looking ahead to the rest of the fall and

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<v Speaker 1>into even I mean, what do you think we are

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<v Speaker 1>going to be seeing over the next few months, particularly

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<v Speaker 1>with the rise of say flu season. Are we probably

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<v Speaker 1>looking at more restrictions, more lockdowns? Um? I mean, what

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<v Speaker 1>do you think the response is going to be if

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<v Speaker 1>this case increase continues, It seems likely that we end

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<v Speaker 1>up back in some level of increased restriction or at

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<v Speaker 1>least increased concern UM. If this outbreak does get it

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<v Speaker 1>does it if it does evolve into something much larger

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<v Speaker 1>through the summer. One of the things that's been true

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<v Speaker 1>is that people have been able to spend a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of time outside where it's easier to social distance UM,

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<v Speaker 1>where it seems like you're less likely to be posed

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<v Speaker 1>to virus um in in large quantities. And the weather

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<v Speaker 1>is going to get colder and people are going to

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<v Speaker 1>be moving back inside. That's gonna make things more challenging

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<v Speaker 1>and probably increased the level of transmission. That's That's what

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<v Speaker 1>just about everybody who works in this space that that

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<v Speaker 1>I have spoken to says, UM. What follows that is

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<v Speaker 1>going to be UM, I mean, hopefully a effective and

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<v Speaker 1>safe vaccine at some point sooner rather than later, but

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<v Speaker 1>also inevitably the types of increased public health measures like lockdown,

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<v Speaker 1>social distancing capacity limitations. UM, those things have followed just

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<v Speaker 1>about everywhere else and it makes a lot of sense

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<v Speaker 1>that they would follow in New York as well. That

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<v Speaker 1>Withdrew Armstrong, and that's it for our show today. For

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<v Speaker 1>coverage of the outbreak from one bureaus around the world,

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<v Speaker 1>visit Bloomberg dot com, slash coronavirus and if you like

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<v Speaker 1>the show, please leave us a review and a rating

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<v Speaker 1>on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to

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<v Speaker 1>help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily

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<v Speaker 1>edition is produced by Top for Foreheads Jordan Gaspure, Magnus Henrickson,

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<v Speaker 1>and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by

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<v Speaker 1>Drew Armstrong. Original music by Leo Sidran Our Editors are

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<v Speaker 1>Francesco Levi and Rick Shine. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head

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<v Speaker 1>of podcasts. Thanks for listening.