1 00:00:03,560 --> 00:00:08,520 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's stayed two hundred 2 00:00:08,600 --> 00:00:14,080 Speaker 1: and three since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's 3 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:18,600 Speaker 1: main story cases are once again ticking up in New 4 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 1: York City, a former virus hotspot that has managed to 5 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:28,319 Speaker 1: keep its rates low for months. But first, here's what 6 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:39,960 Speaker 1: happened in virus news today. In the US, COVID nineteen 7 00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 1: extended its march across the Midwest. On Tuesday, cases surged 8 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 1: in North Dakota, making its outbreak as bad as Floridas 9 00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 1: was in July. Cases were also on the rise in 10 00:00:54,760 --> 00:01:00,640 Speaker 1: South Dakota and Wisconsin. In North Dakota, the seven day 11 00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:04,640 Speaker 1: average of new cases climbed to a new record, according 12 00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:09,000 Speaker 1: to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg News. 13 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:13,760 Speaker 1: Deaths are climbing too, but they typically appear in the 14 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:21,120 Speaker 1: data weeks after cases. A potentially game changing COVID test 15 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:25,839 Speaker 1: has been cleared for use in some European countries. The test, 16 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:30,840 Speaker 1: made by US company Beckton Dickinson, returns results in just 17 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:35,679 Speaker 1: fifteen minutes. It's part of a new class of quicker 18 00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:40,440 Speaker 1: screening tools that detect proteins called antigens they detect on 19 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:45,319 Speaker 1: the surface of stars. Covey too. Beckton Dickinson expects to 20 00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:48,960 Speaker 1: begin selling the test, which runs on the company's cell 21 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 1: phone sized bt Veritor Plus system, in European markets by 22 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 1: the end of October. It will likely be used by 23 00:01:57,440 --> 00:02:05,280 Speaker 1: emergency departments, general practitioners, and pediatricians. Finally, a sobering new 24 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:08,800 Speaker 1: report shows that one in every one thousand children in 25 00:02:08,880 --> 00:02:12,960 Speaker 1: New York State lost a parent to COVID nineteen between 26 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 1: March and July. That's according to an analysis by United 27 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 1: Hospital Fund and Boston Consulting Group. The report shows as 28 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:26,799 Speaker 1: many as three hundred and twenty five thousand children were 29 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:32,239 Speaker 1: pushed into or near poverty by the pandemic related economic downturn. 30 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:44,079 Speaker 1: That brings us to today's main story. New York and 31 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:47,520 Speaker 1: in particular, New York City was hit hardest in the 32 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:51,600 Speaker 1: early months of the pandemic in the US, but after 33 00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 1: a strict lockdown, the city has enjoyed months of the 34 00:02:55,240 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 1: lowest case rates in the country. Now, though, the city 35 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:02,960 Speaker 1: is starting to see a turn that it has long feared. 36 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:07,800 Speaker 1: As schools reopened and the weather gets cooler, cases have 37 00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:13,080 Speaker 1: begun to rise. Its rate of positive cases exceeded three 38 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:16,639 Speaker 1: for the first time in months, and the mayor is 39 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 1: considering shutting select schools and businesses in the zip codes 40 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:26,399 Speaker 1: driving the increase. Senior Editor for Health Drew Armstrong has 41 00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 1: been tracking New York City's efforts to recover from the 42 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 1: outbreaks devastating toll and to safely repair its wounded economy. 43 00:03:35,840 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 1: I spoke to Drew earlier today. After several months of 44 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:53,040 Speaker 1: declining case rates, New York and New York City in 45 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 1: particular is starting to see a spike in COVID nineteen cases. 46 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:01,360 Speaker 1: What's going on here? I think what we're beginning to 47 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 1: see right now with the increase in cases is in 48 00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: some ways really really unsurprising. If you think about how 49 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 1: viruses infect people, they need interactions between sick people and 50 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:19,200 Speaker 1: healthy people. And the more interactions of people that you have, 51 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 1: the more chances you have for a virus to transmit. 52 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 1: And what's been going on in New York is that 53 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:28,720 Speaker 1: we're seeing children go back to school, um restaurants are 54 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:32,719 Speaker 1: opening back up, people are going back into their offices, 55 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:37,159 Speaker 1: and every single one of those things essentially represents a 56 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 1: new opportunity for the virus. And so if you talk 57 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:47,040 Speaker 1: to epidemiologists and people who study infectious disease. Then you 58 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:49,880 Speaker 1: know they would tell you that this isn't shocking at all. 59 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 1: It's in fact exactly what you would expect to see happen. 60 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 1: You know, the more you open up, the more cases 61 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 1: you're going to get. The big question is what happens 62 00:04:59,839 --> 00:05:03,400 Speaker 1: now next? And are the public health measures that are 63 00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:07,159 Speaker 1: in place social distancing, masking, limited capacity in all of 64 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:11,799 Speaker 1: these places, are they enough to keep this tamped down 65 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:15,680 Speaker 1: at a elevated but under control number of cases, or 66 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:19,120 Speaker 1: are we at the start of a new surge. So 67 00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 1: I was wondering if we might drill down in terms 68 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:25,400 Speaker 1: of where we're seeing this this new spike in cases, 69 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 1: what are the communities or what are the geographies that 70 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:32,559 Speaker 1: we're really seeing these new cases emerging. Well, right now, 71 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:36,000 Speaker 1: we're seeing these cases emerge in a handful of neighborhoods 72 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 1: in Brooklyn, and we've seen the city push back and 73 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:41,479 Speaker 1: say we're going to go in and try and push 74 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:44,920 Speaker 1: very hard on better public health practices in some of 75 00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:48,159 Speaker 1: those places. And I think what's important to remember here 76 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:52,440 Speaker 1: is that you know, again, think about the virus not 77 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 1: as a countrywide phenomenon or a statewide phenomenon or a 78 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:02,200 Speaker 1: citywide phenomenon. This is really something that spreads in communities, 79 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:04,919 Speaker 1: and so you have to think about infections as happening 80 00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:09,160 Speaker 1: in communities, and communities can be everything from you know, 81 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:13,880 Speaker 1: somebody's workplace to the church they go to, to the 82 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 1: restaurant they eat, to their group of friends. All of 83 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 1: these outbreaks tend to start locally and then spread, and 84 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:24,839 Speaker 1: every single thing that we've seen um with this virus 85 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 1: has has been that way. It is. This is a 86 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:29,440 Speaker 1: human to human virus, which is why you know when 87 00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:32,599 Speaker 1: public health workers are doing contact tracing, they're looking for 88 00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:35,480 Speaker 1: the people you've been in touch with. And that's exactly 89 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:39,480 Speaker 1: how these types of diseases work. They are hyper hyper hyperlocal, 90 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:43,680 Speaker 1: and that's how they begin in outbreaks before then becoming 91 00:06:44,080 --> 00:06:48,919 Speaker 1: more widespread potentially. Do you think then this actually makes 92 00:06:48,960 --> 00:06:53,120 Speaker 1: it a much more difficult job for saying, un disciple 93 00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 1: or local or even state government to really impose effective 94 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 1: um SAVE restrictions are effective new guidelines because things are 95 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 1: so hyper local. As you were saying, well, I think 96 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:10,720 Speaker 1: what you see is that there is a effort to 97 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 1: try and get the communities where these are happening to 98 00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:17,000 Speaker 1: really up their public health protections and that can have 99 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 1: a real effect from everything that we know. Um, the 100 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:24,840 Speaker 1: other question is does it escape those communities? You know, 101 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 1: if you have a group of people who aren't necessarily 102 00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 1: complying with some of the public health guidelines like masking 103 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 1: and social distancing, can the virus then escape from one 104 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 1: of those outbreaks into a wider population that is complying 105 00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:43,960 Speaker 1: Or are are the the public health efforts like a 106 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:48,240 Speaker 1: mask like social distancing, Are they sufficient to keep the 107 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 1: virus from developing into a wider outbreak because it's not 108 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 1: as easily able to gain hold in the broader population 109 00:07:56,800 --> 00:08:00,720 Speaker 1: going into perhaps one specific type of community duty. You know, 110 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 1: it's it's hard to escape the fact that we're here 111 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 1: at the end of September, and this was the month 112 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:08,240 Speaker 1: that a lot of New York schools started to reopen. 113 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:12,080 Speaker 1: So what do you think this this means for schools 114 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 1: who perhaps have just reopened with this new spike in cases? 115 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 1: I mean, I can I can tell you from a 116 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 1: bit of personal experience. I live north of New York 117 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 1: City and a colleague, UM just got noticed that the 118 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:29,000 Speaker 1: middle school here is going to remote learning. After a 119 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:32,200 Speaker 1: couple of cases. UM. I think one of the things 120 00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:35,559 Speaker 1: that you will almost certainly see happen is this kind 121 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 1: of on again, off again um practice with school where 122 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:41,480 Speaker 1: even with the restrictions and schools have put in place 123 00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 1: to limit some of the numbers of students that are 124 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:47,719 Speaker 1: in place, you're going to see, you know, cases pop up. 125 00:08:47,840 --> 00:08:52,119 Speaker 1: Schools temporarily go to remote learning fully while it gets resolved, 126 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:54,679 Speaker 1: students are back for a while, then they go back 127 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:57,120 Speaker 1: to a remote learning because more cases pop up. If 128 00:08:57,120 --> 00:09:01,960 Speaker 1: you have virus circulating in the community and you have schools, 129 00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:04,559 Speaker 1: they're open and then with a trigger to close if 130 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 1: they get things. You know, it makes a lot of 131 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:09,720 Speaker 1: sense that you would see this kind of on off 132 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:13,720 Speaker 1: switch happening over and over again. That's probably really frustrating 133 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:16,880 Speaker 1: to parents. UM. And I think we'll need to see 134 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:20,640 Speaker 1: how effective it is in terms of controlling potential outbreaks. 135 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:25,120 Speaker 1: And let's focus on the economic impact. What does this 136 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:29,080 Speaker 1: mean for the businesses or restaurants that have survived until 137 00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:31,920 Speaker 1: now but are looking ahead and don't really see an 138 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:38,680 Speaker 1: end to this virus and potentially virus related restrictions. I 139 00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:41,000 Speaker 1: think that's always been the concern, you know, that we 140 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:44,840 Speaker 1: would see a rising cases that are that that is 141 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:47,480 Speaker 1: large enough for there to be more locked on to. 142 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:49,520 Speaker 1: Other countries have done this. I mean, the UK's in 143 00:09:49,559 --> 00:09:52,680 Speaker 1: the middle of it right now, Israel has and so 144 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 1: just because you've opened back up doesn't necessarily mean that 145 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:58,640 Speaker 1: you are able to stay open if things get really 146 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:00,920 Speaker 1: really bad. Comply into with a lot of these public 147 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:04,240 Speaker 1: health measures seems to be very good. UM. I've had 148 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:08,400 Speaker 1: conversations with people who are working on the city's outbreak UM, 149 00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 1: both inside the city government UM and outside consultants to it, 150 00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 1: who think that the city has been, you know, as 151 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:19,000 Speaker 1: thoughtful as they possibly can be. You're also seeing an 152 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:22,280 Speaker 1: effort to balance the fact that you know, people do 153 00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:26,480 Speaker 1: eventually tire of the kind of strictest levels of compliance 154 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 1: with everything shut down UM, and also the fact that 155 00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:32,880 Speaker 1: you know there are businesses and livelihoods UM at stake 156 00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 1: here UM that are that are in play, and you know, 157 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 1: public health officials working with the city and working with 158 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:42,880 Speaker 1: health experts trying to figure out where how far can 159 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:44,959 Speaker 1: we open and what is the right and safe way 160 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:48,560 Speaker 1: to open in order to keep this disease under control. 161 00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:51,679 Speaker 1: I think, you know, until we have a vaccine or UM, 162 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:56,000 Speaker 1: some level of population wide immunity. This doesn't disappear, UM, 163 00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:58,400 Speaker 1: it doesn't go away, and so you're always dealing with 164 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:03,679 Speaker 1: some baseline level of cases. The question is does it 165 00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 1: become bigger than that? And does it does it emerge 166 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 1: into a full blown out of control outbreak like we 167 00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:14,160 Speaker 1: had earlier this spring? And so looking forward, you know, 168 00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:16,680 Speaker 1: we're looking ahead to the rest of the fall and 169 00:11:16,800 --> 00:11:20,959 Speaker 1: into even I mean, what do you think we are 170 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:23,280 Speaker 1: going to be seeing over the next few months, particularly 171 00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:26,560 Speaker 1: with the rise of say flu season. Are we probably 172 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 1: looking at more restrictions, more lockdowns? Um? I mean, what 173 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:32,360 Speaker 1: do you think the response is going to be if 174 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 1: this case increase continues, It seems likely that we end 175 00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 1: up back in some level of increased restriction or at 176 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:44,520 Speaker 1: least increased concern UM. If this outbreak does get it 177 00:11:44,559 --> 00:11:47,600 Speaker 1: does it if it does evolve into something much larger 178 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,760 Speaker 1: through the summer. One of the things that's been true 179 00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 1: is that people have been able to spend a lot 180 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 1: of time outside where it's easier to social distance UM, 181 00:11:56,520 --> 00:12:00,520 Speaker 1: where it seems like you're less likely to be posed 182 00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:04,200 Speaker 1: to virus um in in large quantities. And the weather 183 00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 1: is going to get colder and people are going to 184 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:09,600 Speaker 1: be moving back inside. That's gonna make things more challenging 185 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 1: and probably increased the level of transmission. That's That's what 186 00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:14,960 Speaker 1: just about everybody who works in this space that that 187 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:19,079 Speaker 1: I have spoken to says, UM. What follows that is 188 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:22,000 Speaker 1: going to be UM, I mean, hopefully a effective and 189 00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 1: safe vaccine at some point sooner rather than later, but 190 00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:30,720 Speaker 1: also inevitably the types of increased public health measures like lockdown, 191 00:12:30,760 --> 00:12:36,200 Speaker 1: social distancing capacity limitations. UM, those things have followed just 192 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:37,880 Speaker 1: about everywhere else and it makes a lot of sense 193 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:45,600 Speaker 1: that they would follow in New York as well. That 194 00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:49,320 Speaker 1: Withdrew Armstrong, and that's it for our show today. For 195 00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:52,680 Speaker 1: coverage of the outbreak from one bureaus around the world, 196 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:57,680 Speaker 1: visit Bloomberg dot com, slash coronavirus and if you like 197 00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 1: the show, please leave us a review and a rating 198 00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:04,720 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to 199 00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:09,720 Speaker 1: help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily 200 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:14,800 Speaker 1: edition is produced by Top for Foreheads Jordan Gaspure, Magnus Henrickson, 201 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:19,360 Speaker 1: and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by 202 00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:24,839 Speaker 1: Drew Armstrong. Original music by Leo Sidran Our Editors are 203 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:29,800 Speaker 1: Francesco Levi and Rick Shine. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head 204 00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:32,199 Speaker 1: of podcasts. Thanks for listening.