WEBVTT - Ep140 "How does your brain decide what’s true?" with Sam Harris

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<v Speaker 1>Why does changing your mind sometimes feel like losing a

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<v Speaker 1>part of yourself. If beliefs are supposed to track truth,

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<v Speaker 1>why do they so often track our tribe instead? Why

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<v Speaker 1>does a challenged belief feel like a personal attack. What

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<v Speaker 1>does your brain think it's defending when it defends an idea?

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<v Speaker 1>What if beliefs didn't evolve to be true, but to

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<v Speaker 1>be useful. What if your strongest convictions are solving social problems,

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<v Speaker 1>not intellectual ones. Today we'll speak with public intellectual and

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<v Speaker 1>neuroscientist Sam Harris about the topic of our beliefs. Welcome

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<v Speaker 1>to Inner Cosmos with me David Eagleman. I'm a neuroscientist

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<v Speaker 1>and author at Stanford, and in these episodes we sail

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<v Speaker 1>deeply into our three pound universe to understand how we

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<v Speaker 1>see the world and importantly today, what we take to

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<v Speaker 1>be true about it. Your brain has a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>beliefs about what is true or false. So if I

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<v Speaker 1>ask you is Paris the capital of France, your brain

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<v Speaker 1>immediately judges the truth value of that statement. Is it

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<v Speaker 1>accurate or inaccurate? How about if I ask you is

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<v Speaker 1>ten plus ten twenty one? Your brain has to take

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<v Speaker 1>in the auditory information and compare it against what it

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<v Speaker 1>knows and make a decision. And most people would probably

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<v Speaker 1>agree with your judgments on these questions. But this can

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<v Speaker 1>of course get more complex when it involves other kinds

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<v Speaker 1>of beliefs, Like Mohammad was a holy proh fit chosen

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<v Speaker 1>by Allah to deliver a message to humanity. Some people

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<v Speaker 1>think that's a true statement, others think that's false, or

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<v Speaker 1>the statement early abortion should be supported, or Trump is

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<v Speaker 1>on balance a good president, or whatever. I'm not suggesting

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<v Speaker 1>how you should evaluate these sentences. I'm just pointing out

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<v Speaker 1>there are lots of sentences I can say that you

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<v Speaker 1>might find true or false. So every moment of your life,

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<v Speaker 1>your brain is making commitments. You're not necessarily announcing these

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<v Speaker 1>or thinking about them consciously. They live under the hood.

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<v Speaker 1>But these commitments shape what seems true, what feels threatening,

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<v Speaker 1>what deserves attention, and what can be safely ignored. These

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<v Speaker 1>commitments we have are what we call beliefs, and beliefs

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<v Speaker 1>are how the brain turns information into action. In other words,

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<v Speaker 1>they determine whether an utterance becomes something you respond to

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<v Speaker 1>or something that fades into the background from the outside.

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<v Speaker 1>Beliefs look like opinions, or positions, in other words, something

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<v Speaker 1>you might argue about or align yourself with. But from

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<v Speaker 1>the inside they feel fundamental, as in this is true,

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<v Speaker 1>this is false. Collectively, your beliefs feel like the structure

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<v Speaker 1>of reality itself. They build the backdrop against which your

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<v Speaker 1>decisions make sense. Now, the puzzle that's always fascinated me

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<v Speaker 1>is that intelligent people who are well informed often reach

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<v Speaker 1>very different conclusions about their beliefs. So you have evidence

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<v Speaker 1>that feels decisive to one person and that feels incomplete

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<v Speaker 1>or unconvincing to another. And what that means is that

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<v Speaker 1>changing one's mind typically feels really hard, and when you

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<v Speaker 1>have a disagreement with someone, this can feel personal, like

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<v Speaker 1>it involves your idea. So when we look at these patterns,

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<v Speaker 1>we see that belief seems to be doing something more

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<v Speaker 1>than building accurate models of the world. That might be

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<v Speaker 1>part of why the brain builds true and false judgments,

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<v Speaker 1>but there's probably more involved. For one, beliefs help coordinate

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<v Speaker 1>your social life by supporting identity within your tribe and

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<v Speaker 1>establishing alignment between people. Also, they can manage uncertainty by

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<v Speaker 1>stabilizing emotion. When we look at it through these lenses,

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<v Speaker 1>belief is, of course a biological process as much as

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<v Speaker 1>a philosophical one. Somewhere between encountering a claim and acting

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<v Speaker 1>on it, your brain has to perform a series of

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<v Speaker 1>operations that determine whether some statements should be reacted to,

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<v Speaker 1>or maybe whether it should be questioned or whether it

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<v Speaker 1>should be dismissed entirely. Whatever your brain decides on the

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<v Speaker 1>truth value of the statement, that shapes what you do next.

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<v Speaker 1>And all of this tends to run below the radar

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<v Speaker 1>of conscious awareness. Now, understanding what the brain is doing

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<v Speaker 1>with beliefs is massively important because what you believe to

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<v Speaker 1>be true and not true determines everything about cooperation or conflict.

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<v Speaker 1>And so this sits right at the center of all

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<v Speaker 1>that's happening in politics, in moral judgments, in social trust.

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<v Speaker 1>So I focus a lot of my episodes on these

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<v Speaker 1>issues about polarization and in groups and out groups and shibbleeths.

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<v Speaker 1>But today I want to move upstream a level and

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<v Speaker 1>focus on the machinery beneath them. How does the brain

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<v Speaker 1>decide what to accept as true? How do emotion and

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<v Speaker 1>identity in social context shape what feels credible? And there's

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<v Speaker 1>no one better to explore these questions with than Sam Harris,

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<v Speaker 1>whose work has examined belief from inside the brain and

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<v Speaker 1>within public discourse. Sam is a public intellectual, a philosopher

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<v Speaker 1>and author, and also a neuroscientist. He's well known for

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<v Speaker 1>his writings on rationality, religion, ethics, free will, and meditation.

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<v Speaker 1>He has long researched how science can inform human values

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<v Speaker 1>with books like The End of Faith and The Moral Landscape.

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<v Speaker 1>He hosts the Making Sense podcast, which focuses on consciousness

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<v Speaker 1>and society and current events. So today we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>ask what are beliefs really about. Here's my conversation with

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<v Speaker 1>Sam Harris. So, Sam, I want to talk with you

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<v Speaker 1>about belief. Many years ago you did neuroimaging studies on belief,

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<v Speaker 1>So let's start there. Tell us how you think about

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<v Speaker 1>belief and how you measure that in the brain.

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<v Speaker 2>Believing things to be true of als versus being uncertain.

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<v Speaker 2>This is something that our brains do readily, right, This

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<v Speaker 2>is largely This is what distinguishes us, certainly when we're

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<v Speaker 2>talking about complex representations of the world. This distinguishes us

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<v Speaker 2>from our closest primate cousins. I wouldn't say that that

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<v Speaker 2>other mammals and certainly, you know, the other primates don't

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<v Speaker 2>have beliefs because clearly they represent states of the world cognitively,

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<v Speaker 2>and they have expectations on that basis.

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<v Speaker 1>Like there'll be grubs under this rock.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so they've got, you know, goal seeking behavior, and

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<v Speaker 2>that those goals are framed by some expectation of the

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<v Speaker 2>way the world is, and they can be surprised by

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<v Speaker 2>different outcomes. But we're the only species that were we

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<v Speaker 2>know of that trades in these linguistic representations of the world.

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<v Speaker 2>It can be completely divorced from any sensory entanglement with

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<v Speaker 2>the state of the world that is being described. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>you get a cell phone call and there's a voice

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<v Speaker 2>on the other end of the line and it says,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, we've got your daughter and you got to

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<v Speaker 2>come up with a million dollars to get her back. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>if believed all of a sudden, those you know, small

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<v Speaker 2>mouth noises that came you know through the phone, deletely

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<v Speaker 2>common deer or you know, physiology, your whole world is

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<v Speaker 2>all of a sudden about that, you know, kind of

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<v Speaker 2>bent into the shape of the implications of of that

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<v Speaker 2>you know utterance. Whereas if it's the wrong number. If

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<v Speaker 2>you don't, I don't have a daughter, I know what

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<v Speaker 2>you're talking about, right, just it bounces off, it doesn't,

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<v Speaker 2>it doesn't, it doesn't become behaviorally or emotionally actionable. So

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<v Speaker 2>it was this difference between this fairly gossamer representation of

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<v Speaker 2>the world that that that it's just a piece of

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<v Speaker 2>language right in the mind. It could be your own thought,

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<v Speaker 2>it could be the thought of others you're communicated to you,

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<v Speaker 2>it could be something you read on on the you know,

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<v Speaker 2>the front page of a newspapers. It was it was

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<v Speaker 2>a transition from that just the mere, mere decoding of

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<v Speaker 2>a piece of language, to suddenly finding it not only

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<v Speaker 2>behaviorally actionable, but you know, you know, unthinkable not to

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<v Speaker 2>be motivated by those by those you know phonemes. So

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<v Speaker 2>there's clearly, you know, steps in the chain where you

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<v Speaker 2>you you you parse language or parse a statement and

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<v Speaker 2>understand its meaning, and then there's this secondary operation of

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<v Speaker 2>judging it to be true or false, right, or or

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<v Speaker 2>just deciding that you can't judge it one or the other.

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<v Speaker 2>And it seemed to me that on some level, this

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<v Speaker 2>is the most important thing in the world, right, I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>if you're talking about the power of ideas. You first

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<v Speaker 2>have to stand upstream of that claim to talk about

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<v Speaker 2>the difference between believing or disbelieving, accepting or rejecting certain

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<v Speaker 2>ideas right and so, and ideas are obviously everything in

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<v Speaker 2>our lives. I mean, it's it's how we're making a civilization,

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<v Speaker 2>is how we're failing to secure a civilization. It's how

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<v Speaker 2>we're needlessly producing harm for for ourselves and others. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>it's just it's it's belief. Is claims to knowledge you

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<v Speaker 2>know true or otherwise? Are everything?

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<v Speaker 3>Right?

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<v Speaker 2>And so the question in my mind is what was

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<v Speaker 2>the brain doing to find something behaviorally actionable or to

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<v Speaker 2>find it not based on accepting or rejecting a claim

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<v Speaker 2>to knowledge about the world.

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<v Speaker 1>And so that's binary. But you also looked.

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<v Speaker 3>At uncertain certainty as a third condition.

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<v Speaker 1>But just so I'm clear, was uncertainty the I just

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<v Speaker 1>don't know one way or the other.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, okay, And you clearly, I mean, like you clearly

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<v Speaker 2>couldn't know. So if you know a question that would

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<v Speaker 2>provoke that would be to give someone some gigantic number

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<v Speaker 2>and say that this number is prime. Right, It might

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<v Speaker 2>be prime ends in a one, it might be prime.

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<v Speaker 2>But obviously I don't know, or I have an you know,

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<v Speaker 2>you have an even number of hairs on your body, right,

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<v Speaker 2>you know you presumably you don't know, and so you

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<v Speaker 2>can you can come up with lists of statements that

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<v Speaker 2>are just as easy to decode as any other statements.

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<v Speaker 2>But what you come up against, you know, once you

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<v Speaker 2>understand them, is that there's really no way for you

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<v Speaker 2>to know what's true.

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<v Speaker 1>Got it, So you've got I either believe this to

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<v Speaker 1>be true some state, give me an example of what

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<v Speaker 1>you used.

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<v Speaker 2>My hypothesis was that belief, disbelief, and uncertainty were content

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<v Speaker 2>independent operations of the mind and therefore of the brain.

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<v Speaker 2>So that if I gave you a statement like two

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<v Speaker 2>plus two equals four versus two plus two equals five,

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<v Speaker 2>and those are those are parsed and analyzed very similarly. Right,

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<v Speaker 2>you're just just however, you understand arithmetic at the level

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<v Speaker 2>of the brain. You're doing that, but you're coming to

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<v Speaker 2>the opposite conclusion based on those two examples. But the

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<v Speaker 2>hypothesis was that if we interrogated many different streams of

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<v Speaker 2>knowledge and belief formation, so mathematical, logical, autobiographical, religious, political, right, say,

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<v Speaker 2>the ethical the cognitive and you know, neuro physiological operations

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<v Speaker 2>required to parse and judge that the truth value of

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<v Speaker 2>any of those statements had to be very very different.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, what you're doing for arithmetic is not the

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<v Speaker 2>same as what you're doing for for religion presumably, or ethics,

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<v Speaker 2>or you know, you know, episodic memories. Say, but there

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<v Speaker 2>was this final there had to be a bottleneck with

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<v Speaker 2>which reported acceptance or rejection of the statement or uncertainty.

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<v Speaker 1>Great, and so you put people in the scanner and

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<v Speaker 1>what did you find.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, we found that accepting a statement to be true

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<v Speaker 2>versus rejecting it as false did report a kind of

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<v Speaker 2>content agnostic you know, subsequent operation. One thing that was interesting, though,

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<v Speaker 2>is that, and this actually goes back many many centuries

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<v Speaker 2>to the work of Spinoza. Spinosa hypothesized that merely understanding

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<v Speaker 2>a statement was akin to accepting it. Like it's like

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<v Speaker 2>in order to just if I give you, if I

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<v Speaker 2>give you just any utterance that you you know, any

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<v Speaker 2>claim about the world that you can parse. Merely kind

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<v Speaker 2>of getting to the end of the sentence and understanding

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<v Speaker 2>it puts you in a in a mode of cain

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<v Speaker 2>tacitly accepting it to be true and rejecting it as

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<v Speaker 2>false was a subsequent operation. And one thing you would

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<v Speaker 2>expect if that, in fact were true, is that behaviorally

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<v Speaker 2>false statements would be people would be slower to judge

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<v Speaker 2>false statements of equal complexity than to true statements. And

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<v Speaker 2>we found that. So you get people a statement like

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<v Speaker 2>two plus two equals five, they're slower to say no,

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<v Speaker 2>that's false than two plus two equals four is true.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean that that was a it was a fairly

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<v Speaker 2>significant behavioral difference. But in any case, the.

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<v Speaker 1>We let me, let me dive into that for a second.

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<v Speaker 1>Does that mean that hearing other perspectives, being exposed to

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<v Speaker 1>other perspectives, which you think, well, that's false, But at

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<v Speaker 1>least you've spent that moment standing in that person's truth

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<v Speaker 1>for a moment. So, for example, with political debates, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>one of the things that I think is the most

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<v Speaker 1>important for students is to, you know, get a three

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<v Speaker 1>sixty view of the arguments, to debate from both sides,

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<v Speaker 1>and be ready to do that. When we were in school,

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<v Speaker 1>I think, I don't know if this is retrospective romanticization,

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<v Speaker 1>but I believe that was more common. You would you

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<v Speaker 1>would come into a debate ready to do either side,

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<v Speaker 1>and therefore you knew the issues and the nuance is

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<v Speaker 1>slightly better than let's say a kid who's in college

0:14:10.360 --> 0:14:12.200
<v Speaker 1>who thinks, sorry, this is the truth and I'm not

0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:15.000
<v Speaker 1>going to entertain another hypothesis. Just based on what you said,

0:14:15.040 --> 0:14:18.280
<v Speaker 1>it seems to me interesting that if you're told another perspective,

0:14:18.320 --> 0:14:20.240
<v Speaker 1>you at least stand in that truth for a moment

0:14:21.200 --> 0:14:23.000
<v Speaker 1>before rejecting it, which might be useful.

0:14:23.240 --> 0:14:28.760
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, although it does actually connect with other non normative biases,

0:14:28.800 --> 0:14:32.880
<v Speaker 2>where it's something called Obviously, we have a replication crisis

0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:36.800
<v Speaker 2>in much of this psychological science, so I don't know

0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:39.440
<v Speaker 2>if this work has been replicated. But at the time,

0:14:39.480 --> 0:14:42.520
<v Speaker 2>there was something called the illusory truth effect, where you

0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:46.760
<v Speaker 2>merely being told something.

0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:51.080
<v Speaker 1>Several times so you're more likely to believe it.

0:14:51.000 --> 0:14:52.480
<v Speaker 3>Even in the act of debunking it.

0:14:52.520 --> 0:14:54.240
<v Speaker 2>So if I tell you that a certain thing was

0:14:54.520 --> 0:14:56.760
<v Speaker 2>thought to be true, but in fact it's not true,

0:14:57.360 --> 0:15:00.840
<v Speaker 2>there's a kind of memory distortion bias where just you know,

0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:02.920
<v Speaker 2>a year from now, if I ask you about that thing,

0:15:03.600 --> 0:15:05.960
<v Speaker 2>there's this reliable bias in the direction of, oh, yeah,

0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:08.000
<v Speaker 2>that was that was true, right, but you sort of

0:15:08.040 --> 0:15:11.160
<v Speaker 2>the debunking, and this is why misinformation can be so

0:15:12.160 --> 0:15:15.200
<v Speaker 2>pernicious and difficult to debunk. And again I bracket this

0:15:15.520 --> 0:15:18.360
<v Speaker 2>with not knowing whether or not I am now spreading misinformation,

0:15:18.560 --> 0:15:21.000
<v Speaker 2>because I don't know if this is washed out.

0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:24.160
<v Speaker 1>I've certainly heard the misery truth effect many times, so

0:15:24.200 --> 0:15:26.960
<v Speaker 1>now it's stuck in me as the truth. Ye fine,

0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:31.160
<v Speaker 1>So okay, So coming back to this then, so Spinoza said,

0:15:31.920 --> 0:15:33.880
<v Speaker 1>you know, you have to evaluate something as though it's

0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:36.360
<v Speaker 1>stand in that space for a moment before you make

0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:38.000
<v Speaker 1>your decision that that's actually false.

0:15:38.360 --> 0:15:38.720
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:15:39.400 --> 0:15:44.160
<v Speaker 2>So the reporter of that in our study was mostly

0:15:44.560 --> 0:15:47.240
<v Speaker 2>activity in the anterior insula, which is, as you know,

0:15:47.280 --> 0:15:52.880
<v Speaker 2>the insula is the cortical structure that that is, you know,

0:15:54.560 --> 0:15:57.680
<v Speaker 2>very focused on in terror reception. And it's just the

0:15:57.760 --> 0:16:01.120
<v Speaker 2>kind of the states of the body are being evaluated

0:16:01.160 --> 0:16:05.560
<v Speaker 2>here and discussed. I mean, the discussed literature suggests that

0:16:05.560 --> 0:16:09.280
<v Speaker 2>it's mostly driven by the insula, and it's and so

0:16:09.320 --> 0:16:12.760
<v Speaker 2>that this was somehow unsurprising to us because it does

0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:15.520
<v Speaker 2>seem I mean, I think just you can get in

0:16:15.560 --> 0:16:19.600
<v Speaker 2>touch with this in the first person subjective way, there

0:16:19.680 --> 0:16:24.320
<v Speaker 2>is something to reject a proposition as false feels a

0:16:24.320 --> 0:16:26.120
<v Speaker 2>certain way. I mean, it is a kind of emotion,

0:16:26.200 --> 0:16:31.080
<v Speaker 2>it's a psychological rejection state. And if it's emphatically false,

0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:34.520
<v Speaker 2>certainly on a topic you care about, there's really just

0:16:34.720 --> 0:16:37.560
<v Speaker 2>to put that on. The continuum of disgust was not

0:16:37.640 --> 0:16:42.000
<v Speaker 2>at all surprising, right, And conversely, true statements were evaluated

0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:47.760
<v Speaker 2>with the same kind of positively valanced reward structures that

0:16:47.800 --> 0:16:51.560
<v Speaker 2>we know about in the frontal midline area of the brain.

0:16:53.160 --> 0:16:57.480
<v Speaker 2>And this might be surprising to people who haven't thought

0:16:57.480 --> 0:17:00.920
<v Speaker 2>about neuroscience very much, but generally speaking, we know that

0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:05.959
<v Speaker 2>all of our acts of higher cognition are are leveraged

0:17:06.040 --> 0:17:08.680
<v Speaker 2>from areas of you know, areas of the brain which

0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:11.280
<v Speaker 2>were not designed merely for that for that, you know,

0:17:11.359 --> 0:17:14.400
<v Speaker 2>not designed by evolution merely to support that higher cognition.

0:17:14.720 --> 0:17:16.639
<v Speaker 2>So clearly you have to do math and language and

0:17:16.680 --> 0:17:21.040
<v Speaker 2>neuroscience and everything else that only humans do using these

0:17:21.040 --> 0:17:24.280
<v Speaker 2>structures that that you know, even our chimp cousins have.

0:17:25.760 --> 0:17:28.880
<v Speaker 1>So when you hear something false, activates some sense of disgust,

0:17:28.920 --> 0:17:31.480
<v Speaker 1>and use something true, it's beautiful and rewarding.

0:17:31.840 --> 0:17:33.800
<v Speaker 2>And there was one other piece that the and this

0:17:33.840 --> 0:17:36.080
<v Speaker 2>came in a subsequent study when we were looking at

0:17:36.840 --> 0:17:41.560
<v Speaker 2>political versus and religious versus, just kind of semantic ordinary,

0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:44.960
<v Speaker 2>more ordinary beliefs. We found that beliefs that there was

0:17:45.000 --> 0:17:46.880
<v Speaker 2>there was a subsequent study where we which I ran

0:17:46.920 --> 0:17:52.200
<v Speaker 2>with Jonas Kaplan at USC He's over in Demasio's lab,

0:17:53.240 --> 0:17:57.680
<v Speaker 2>where we tried to in real time push back against

0:17:57.680 --> 0:17:59.960
<v Speaker 2>people strongly held beliefs while they were in this skin.

0:18:00.240 --> 0:18:02.760
<v Speaker 2>So we'd present them with a proposition which we we

0:18:02.840 --> 0:18:06.720
<v Speaker 2>knew in advance that that you know, some subjects would

0:18:06.840 --> 0:18:09.320
<v Speaker 2>strongly believe someone's strongly disbelieve, and we'd try to push

0:18:09.400 --> 0:18:13.760
<v Speaker 2>their beliefs in the opposite direction, giving them fairly persuasive,

0:18:13.760 --> 0:18:16.240
<v Speaker 2>but still in many cases kind of just sham evidence.

0:18:16.320 --> 0:18:16.439
<v Speaker 3>Right.

0:18:16.560 --> 0:18:18.240
<v Speaker 2>So like he's like someone who would be put in

0:18:18.280 --> 0:18:20.159
<v Speaker 2>the scanner and we would we would ask them to

0:18:20.200 --> 0:18:23.679
<v Speaker 2>rate on a scale of one to seven their confidence

0:18:23.720 --> 0:18:28.040
<v Speaker 2>that secondhand smoke is a significant health concern, right, and

0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:30.399
<v Speaker 2>then we would present I think in this case it

0:18:30.440 --> 0:18:33.600
<v Speaker 2>was sham evidence against that conviction, seeing if we could

0:18:33.640 --> 0:18:37.720
<v Speaker 2>knock get back. And but we did this for beliefs

0:18:37.800 --> 0:18:41.560
<v Speaker 2>that would be nonetheless strongly held, but around which we

0:18:41.600 --> 0:18:45.840
<v Speaker 2>wouldn't expect someone's identity to be really anchored versus beliefs

0:18:45.880 --> 0:18:48.040
<v Speaker 2>that were you know, political or religious, where they you

0:18:48.040 --> 0:18:50.920
<v Speaker 2>would imagine that would be more resistant to to revising

0:18:50.960 --> 0:18:55.320
<v Speaker 2>their opinion whatever your evidence, right, And we found that

0:18:56.960 --> 0:19:00.919
<v Speaker 2>areas in again midline, but now in the posterior regions

0:19:00.920 --> 0:19:04.359
<v Speaker 2>of the brain, you know, kind of classically kind of

0:19:04.359 --> 0:19:12.240
<v Speaker 2>default mode network areas were preferentially upregulated there where and

0:19:12.280 --> 0:19:15.480
<v Speaker 2>some of these areas are and there's other work showing

0:19:15.520 --> 0:19:20.800
<v Speaker 2>that they when people are given stimuli that that are

0:19:20.840 --> 0:19:23.879
<v Speaker 2>interrogating self representation itself, like if you I give you

0:19:23.880 --> 0:19:25.479
<v Speaker 2>a list of words and ask you which of these

0:19:25.520 --> 0:19:27.640
<v Speaker 2>words apply it to you? You know, we're like patient

0:19:28.040 --> 0:19:31.879
<v Speaker 2>or kind or anxious or and then people are if

0:19:31.920 --> 0:19:35.480
<v Speaker 2>the if the if the task is is this me right?

0:19:35.600 --> 0:19:39.960
<v Speaker 2>That's this this the same region that gets activated. So

0:19:40.880 --> 0:19:43.400
<v Speaker 2>you know, at least in that experiment, we we did

0:19:43.840 --> 0:19:48.159
<v Speaker 2>produce some evidence that beliefs were people were resistant to

0:19:48.280 --> 0:19:51.359
<v Speaker 2>modifying their beliefs no matter what the counter evidence was,

0:19:51.840 --> 0:19:54.560
<v Speaker 2>where the were of a sort that seemed to be

0:19:54.600 --> 0:19:58.760
<v Speaker 2>invoking kind of the self referential uh processing.

0:19:59.000 --> 0:20:01.760
<v Speaker 1>So beliefs are tied to identity.

0:20:01.800 --> 0:20:04.040
<v Speaker 2>Not not all but such like like again there's there's

0:20:04.080 --> 0:20:06.359
<v Speaker 2>there were two buckets. Some could be strongly held. But

0:20:07.000 --> 0:20:09.719
<v Speaker 2>you know, presumably your identity isn't so tied up in

0:20:09.920 --> 0:20:13.720
<v Speaker 2>you know, whether secondhand smoke is a health hazard versus uh,

0:20:13.960 --> 0:20:17.080
<v Speaker 2>you know something about you know, abortion is wrong, or

0:20:17.119 --> 0:20:20.440
<v Speaker 2>you know, whatever your political conviction was that we analyzed

0:20:20.440 --> 0:20:20.960
<v Speaker 2>in advance.

0:20:35.920 --> 0:20:38.000
<v Speaker 1>So this leads us to the question, I think, if

0:20:38.320 --> 0:20:40.960
<v Speaker 1>what is belief for from an evolutionary point of view,

0:20:41.040 --> 0:20:45.919
<v Speaker 1>what are these beliefs useful for doing for for the

0:20:45.960 --> 0:20:49.760
<v Speaker 1>rest of the brain. One idea about beliefs is that

0:20:50.840 --> 0:20:54.040
<v Speaker 1>they're trying to build a an accurate model of the world.

0:20:54.560 --> 0:20:56.600
<v Speaker 1>Another version of beliefs is that it has to do

0:20:56.720 --> 0:21:01.879
<v Speaker 1>with something social, as in belonging, with identity and the

0:21:02.240 --> 0:21:05.639
<v Speaker 1>capitlain and all. Study you just pointed two would certainly

0:21:05.640 --> 0:21:08.679
<v Speaker 1>support that. And then another that people propose that has

0:21:08.720 --> 0:21:13.000
<v Speaker 1>to do with emotional regulation. It makes you feel better, more certain,

0:21:13.080 --> 0:21:15.640
<v Speaker 1>less anxious about particular things, especially I think that would

0:21:15.680 --> 0:21:17.960
<v Speaker 1>apply to letus say, religious beliefs. And it may not

0:21:18.000 --> 0:21:20.920
<v Speaker 1>be that there's anything exclusive about these answers, but if

0:21:20.920 --> 0:21:24.600
<v Speaker 1>we were thinking about waiting them, how do you see

0:21:24.640 --> 0:21:25.719
<v Speaker 1>the function of beliefs?

0:21:25.720 --> 0:21:31.760
<v Speaker 2>Well, I think it's subsumes almost every act of cognition

0:21:32.920 --> 0:21:37.639
<v Speaker 2>apart from kind of pure kind of sensory engagement with

0:21:37.720 --> 0:21:43.159
<v Speaker 2>the world. And even in that case, you can you

0:21:43.200 --> 0:21:47.680
<v Speaker 2>can translate the sensory experience into kind of belief talk.

0:21:48.000 --> 0:21:49.840
<v Speaker 2>I mean, it doesn't have the we don't it's not

0:21:49.920 --> 0:21:52.800
<v Speaker 2>mediated linguistically in the same way. But like my belief

0:21:53.520 --> 0:21:56.199
<v Speaker 2>that that's a table, it's built up over you know,

0:21:56.440 --> 0:21:58.919
<v Speaker 2>you can in many channels. One channel as I can

0:21:58.960 --> 0:22:00.840
<v Speaker 2>see it, and I can see that, you know, supporting

0:22:00.880 --> 0:22:03.560
<v Speaker 2>your drink, and so we're using that as a table

0:22:04.040 --> 0:22:09.879
<v Speaker 2>whatever it is. But the linguistic mediation comes into play

0:22:09.920 --> 0:22:14.199
<v Speaker 2>when we might say, oh, would you just would you

0:22:14.200 --> 0:22:16.239
<v Speaker 2>go put that over on the table. It's like then,

0:22:16.640 --> 0:22:18.600
<v Speaker 2>so now I have this abstract representation of the table,

0:22:18.640 --> 0:22:21.040
<v Speaker 2>I walk into the room, I find the table, right.

0:22:21.080 --> 0:22:25.760
<v Speaker 2>So obviously we're engaging this in multiple modes. But once

0:22:25.800 --> 0:22:29.480
<v Speaker 2>you break free of just moment to moment, you know,

0:22:30.240 --> 0:22:34.480
<v Speaker 2>behavioral imperatives of navigating that, you know, our mediate environment,

0:22:36.119 --> 0:22:42.199
<v Speaker 2>it's almost all linguistic or you know, imagistic representations of

0:22:42.359 --> 0:22:46.040
<v Speaker 2>possible states of the future, you know, plausible states of

0:22:46.080 --> 0:22:50.119
<v Speaker 2>the past. You know, do we try to reconcile our memory,

0:22:50.119 --> 0:22:52.960
<v Speaker 2>you know, our memories when there's any kind of discordance there.

0:22:53.000 --> 0:22:55.480
<v Speaker 2>But again, we're just trading in language. Oh no, no,

0:22:55.520 --> 0:22:57.359
<v Speaker 2>he didn't say that. He said this, Or no, no,

0:22:57.440 --> 0:22:59.640
<v Speaker 2>that wasn't. That wasn't on Tuesday. That was on Wednesday,

0:22:59.680 --> 0:23:02.480
<v Speaker 2>And I mean it was It's all we're doing is

0:23:02.520 --> 0:23:06.000
<v Speaker 2>talking to ourselves and talking to others about what the

0:23:06.040 --> 0:23:08.439
<v Speaker 2>world is like and what our place in it is

0:23:08.520 --> 0:23:11.159
<v Speaker 2>and what should we do next. I mean, we have

0:23:11.240 --> 0:23:18.000
<v Speaker 2>just we have this massive navigation problem which covers really

0:23:18.080 --> 0:23:20.960
<v Speaker 2>our life in every respect. I mean even you know,

0:23:21.040 --> 0:23:24.400
<v Speaker 2>I view morality as a navigation problem, and morality really

0:23:24.440 --> 0:23:28.320
<v Speaker 2>is a story of what should we do next, you know,

0:23:28.480 --> 0:23:30.280
<v Speaker 2>or in the future, right, Like, what is what's the

0:23:30.359 --> 0:23:32.200
<v Speaker 2>right thing to do? So you get two people in

0:23:32.240 --> 0:23:35.560
<v Speaker 2>a room and they're for whatever reason, their incentives aren't aligned,

0:23:35.560 --> 0:23:38.040
<v Speaker 2>and there's some kind of negotiation, and then it immediately

0:23:38.080 --> 0:23:40.119
<v Speaker 2>becomes a conversation about what's the right thing to do,

0:23:40.160 --> 0:23:42.000
<v Speaker 2>what's the fair thing to do, what's the what do

0:23:42.119 --> 0:23:45.520
<v Speaker 2>we do last time? And if you actually kind of

0:23:45.600 --> 0:23:48.600
<v Speaker 2>drill down on what's happening at each point along the way,

0:23:48.640 --> 0:23:53.359
<v Speaker 2>and what is anchoring everyone's emotional response. You're looking at

0:23:53.760 --> 0:23:56.240
<v Speaker 2>knowledge claims about the way the world is, the way

0:23:56.240 --> 0:24:00.000
<v Speaker 2>that it's likely to be, and people's kind of the waitings,

0:24:00.000 --> 0:24:03.359
<v Speaker 2>the emotional waitings. People are giving these claims with respect

0:24:03.400 --> 0:24:06.159
<v Speaker 2>to kind of a probabilistic sense of the likelihood that

0:24:06.160 --> 0:24:10.239
<v Speaker 2>they're true or false. Right, So, if someone says to you, oh, no, no, no,

0:24:10.280 --> 0:24:15.960
<v Speaker 2>that's not what happened. There's a very controversial shooting in

0:24:16.000 --> 0:24:18.040
<v Speaker 2>the news right now that has kind of shattered the

0:24:18.040 --> 0:24:21.720
<v Speaker 2>country in the last twelve hours. An ice officer shot

0:24:21.720 --> 0:24:25.520
<v Speaker 2>a woman protester in her car. You know, millions upon

0:24:25.520 --> 0:24:28.000
<v Speaker 2>millions have seen the video and have rival interpretations of

0:24:28.000 --> 0:24:30.840
<v Speaker 2>the video based on what they believe is plausible to think,

0:24:30.880 --> 0:24:33.400
<v Speaker 2>based on the angle they were looking at and etc.

0:24:34.000 --> 0:24:39.440
<v Speaker 2>All of this is a story of rival beliefs framed

0:24:39.440 --> 0:24:43.920
<v Speaker 2>by different shadings of facts. But again, facts in this

0:24:44.000 --> 0:24:49.760
<v Speaker 2>case are beliefs upon beliefs upon beliefs that people are

0:24:49.920 --> 0:24:51.800
<v Speaker 2>granting more or less credence.

0:24:52.040 --> 0:24:52.240
<v Speaker 3>Right.

0:24:52.320 --> 0:24:54.399
<v Speaker 2>So, Like in this case, you know, the woman was

0:24:55.000 --> 0:24:57.840
<v Speaker 2>driving her car toward the officer, So was she trying

0:24:57.840 --> 0:24:59.119
<v Speaker 2>to get away or was she trying to run the

0:24:59.119 --> 0:25:04.320
<v Speaker 2>officer overw how you interpret that maneuver changes your sense

0:25:04.359 --> 0:25:07.280
<v Speaker 2>of the ethics of it completely. What is an officer

0:25:07.320 --> 0:25:10.280
<v Speaker 2>supposed to do when he's no longer physically in danger

0:25:10.720 --> 0:25:12.560
<v Speaker 2>with his gun, but his gun has drawn, he's already

0:25:12.560 --> 0:25:16.000
<v Speaker 2>shot one round at the suspect. You either know nothing

0:25:16.000 --> 0:25:17.520
<v Speaker 2>about that or you know a lot about that, and

0:25:17.520 --> 0:25:19.359
<v Speaker 2>you have very strong convictions about what the right thing

0:25:19.400 --> 0:25:21.399
<v Speaker 2>to do is or what the legal thing to do is. Again,

0:25:21.760 --> 0:25:26.879
<v Speaker 2>is just a blizzard of propositional claims, linguistically mediated propositional

0:25:26.920 --> 0:25:28.640
<v Speaker 2>claims about the way the world is or should be,

0:25:29.160 --> 0:25:32.200
<v Speaker 2>And it's all a matter of belief and our creedence around.

0:25:31.960 --> 0:25:35.720
<v Speaker 1>It, agreed. But what I'm interested in is not so

0:25:35.800 --> 0:25:38.359
<v Speaker 1>much the individual beliefs that we might have about the

0:25:38.359 --> 0:25:41.800
<v Speaker 1>trajectory of the car so on, but the social aspect

0:25:41.880 --> 0:25:44.879
<v Speaker 1>of this, in terms of what do my friends and

0:25:44.960 --> 0:25:48.320
<v Speaker 1>my colleagues on whatever my political side of the argument is,

0:25:48.400 --> 0:25:51.439
<v Speaker 1>what do they believe is true? We're so obviously influenced

0:25:51.520 --> 0:25:55.320
<v Speaker 1>by our groups, by our cultures, by our families, by

0:25:55.359 --> 0:25:59.680
<v Speaker 1>our neighborhoods. To what degree is belief fundamentally a social

0:25:59.720 --> 0:26:01.639
<v Speaker 1>issue in our social species?

0:26:01.720 --> 0:26:05.080
<v Speaker 2>Well, I think it is almost entirely. When you look

0:26:05.119 --> 0:26:09.479
<v Speaker 2>at it's kind of the primacy of language in shaping

0:26:09.480 --> 0:26:13.480
<v Speaker 2>these beliefs. So we learn the language is a social phenomenon, right,

0:26:13.480 --> 0:26:16.520
<v Speaker 2>It's an intersubjective phenomenon. You learn it. I mean, it's

0:26:16.520 --> 0:26:18.680
<v Speaker 2>not that we don't have a propensity to learn it.

0:26:18.720 --> 0:26:21.320
<v Speaker 2>Obviously we do, and that is kind of a private

0:26:21.560 --> 0:26:24.480
<v Speaker 2>individual fact about each of us. But when you look

0:26:24.480 --> 0:26:26.960
<v Speaker 2>at how it gets trained up in dialogue with your

0:26:27.000 --> 0:26:30.679
<v Speaker 2>parents and caregivers and other people in your environment from

0:26:31.080 --> 0:26:35.399
<v Speaker 2>your first hours of life, it's an intrinsically social phenomenon

0:26:35.440 --> 0:26:39.840
<v Speaker 2>which we then later internalize, such that even when mommy

0:26:39.840 --> 0:26:43.000
<v Speaker 2>and Daddy leave the room, we're left talking to ourselves. Right,

0:26:43.040 --> 0:26:45.680
<v Speaker 2>And so there's that kind of inner voice that gets

0:26:46.240 --> 0:26:50.679
<v Speaker 2>kindled and which we never seem to shake. Most people

0:26:50.760 --> 0:26:55.840
<v Speaker 2>are mediating all of their experience with language, and we

0:26:56.000 --> 0:26:58.800
<v Speaker 2>do this with one another. It is the basis of

0:26:58.960 --> 0:27:02.920
<v Speaker 2>virtually all human cooperation. I mean, it's certainly cooperation with

0:27:02.960 --> 0:27:07.400
<v Speaker 2>respect any complex task. I mean, like if you got

0:27:07.480 --> 0:27:11.200
<v Speaker 2>up and started a trip, you know, I might wordlessly

0:27:11.240 --> 0:27:13.320
<v Speaker 2>and instantly you know, grab you to keep you from

0:27:13.359 --> 0:27:15.240
<v Speaker 2>falling over, or you drop something, and I try to

0:27:15.240 --> 0:27:20.360
<v Speaker 2>catch it. That's not linguistic. But basically, any cooperation more

0:27:20.359 --> 0:27:23.159
<v Speaker 2>complex than that is a matter of us talking to

0:27:23.200 --> 0:27:26.400
<v Speaker 2>one another about what our goals are and what we're

0:27:26.400 --> 0:27:27.080
<v Speaker 2>going to do next.

0:27:27.280 --> 0:27:30.480
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, So how do you think that applies to beliefs? Though?

0:27:30.560 --> 0:27:34.640
<v Speaker 1>My belief about whether the woman was trying to kill

0:27:34.640 --> 0:27:39.040
<v Speaker 1>the cop or get away, my belief about gun control, abortion, whatever,

0:27:39.119 --> 0:27:40.800
<v Speaker 1>What do these things have to do with the people

0:27:40.800 --> 0:27:43.880
<v Speaker 1>I'm surrounded by? In other words, how do we make

0:27:43.920 --> 0:27:46.240
<v Speaker 1>our beliefs about what it's true what it's not true.

0:27:46.680 --> 0:27:50.879
<v Speaker 2>So all of our talk about beliefs is occurring in

0:27:50.920 --> 0:27:55.240
<v Speaker 2>a community, right, in the community of people who are

0:27:55.600 --> 0:27:57.840
<v Speaker 2>we have direct relationships with, and then just a community

0:27:57.880 --> 0:28:01.160
<v Speaker 2>of that is just a matter of are being embedded

0:28:01.200 --> 0:28:03.640
<v Speaker 2>in an information landscape where we're hearing from other people

0:28:03.680 --> 0:28:06.159
<v Speaker 2>who we may never meet, or we're reading books, you know,

0:28:06.200 --> 0:28:08.359
<v Speaker 2>written by people who may have been dead for hundreds

0:28:08.400 --> 0:28:12.760
<v Speaker 2>of years, but we're trafficking in the kind of just

0:28:12.840 --> 0:28:18.560
<v Speaker 2>a torrents of linguistic representations of the world, and we're

0:28:18.640 --> 0:28:25.560
<v Speaker 2>constantly revising or resisting revising our view of the world

0:28:25.560 --> 0:28:28.040
<v Speaker 2>on that basis. Right, So you read something and you

0:28:28.080 --> 0:28:32.800
<v Speaker 2>know this is where various you know, reasoning heuristics, you know,

0:28:32.960 --> 0:28:35.920
<v Speaker 2>normative and otherwise come into play where you could have

0:28:36.000 --> 0:28:38.640
<v Speaker 2>something like confirmation bias, right, which you know, in science

0:28:38.680 --> 0:28:40.880
<v Speaker 2>we're alert to the fact that this is a kind

0:28:40.880 --> 0:28:44.680
<v Speaker 2>of you know, cognitive defect or failure mode where it's like,

0:28:44.960 --> 0:28:47.680
<v Speaker 2>you know, if you're just looking for the confirmation of

0:28:47.760 --> 0:28:52.120
<v Speaker 2>your cherished hypothesis or your cherished opinion, well then we

0:28:52.200 --> 0:28:54.280
<v Speaker 2>know that's just not a good operation to see if

0:28:54.320 --> 0:28:58.040
<v Speaker 2>in fact you're you're in touch with reality. And so,

0:28:58.880 --> 0:29:01.920
<v Speaker 2>but in every area of discourse, whether it's a formal

0:29:02.000 --> 0:29:04.760
<v Speaker 2>one like science or it's just we're just you know,

0:29:04.840 --> 0:29:12.200
<v Speaker 2>gossiping with friends, we're constantly trading in statements about the

0:29:12.200 --> 0:29:16.960
<v Speaker 2>way the world is. And these statements could fall into

0:29:17.720 --> 0:29:21.560
<v Speaker 2>various categories that are just are more or less morally

0:29:21.600 --> 0:29:24.320
<v Speaker 2>salient or or psychologically.

0:29:25.120 --> 0:29:25.840
<v Speaker 3>Combustible.

0:29:25.960 --> 0:29:27.360
<v Speaker 2>I mean, so, you know, if you if you're talking

0:29:27.400 --> 0:29:30.360
<v Speaker 2>about religious beliefs, like core religious beliefs that are you know,

0:29:30.400 --> 0:29:33.840
<v Speaker 2>foundational for a specific community, obviously those have a different

0:29:34.240 --> 0:29:38.000
<v Speaker 2>gravity to them, and they are all you know, pathologically

0:29:38.040 --> 0:29:41.680
<v Speaker 2>in my view, they are protected by certain norms that

0:29:41.760 --> 0:29:44.680
<v Speaker 2>are really the antithesis of what we what we do

0:29:44.760 --> 0:29:47.520
<v Speaker 2>in science where you know, you're I mean this, you know,

0:29:47.960 --> 0:29:52.200
<v Speaker 2>religion is the only area of culture where the notion

0:29:52.280 --> 0:29:55.560
<v Speaker 2>of dogma is not not pejorative. R I mean, dogma

0:29:55.600 --> 0:29:57.880
<v Speaker 2>is literally not a bad word in you know, dogma's

0:29:58.000 --> 0:30:01.200
<v Speaker 2>you know, traditionally Catholic, you know, and word. These are

0:30:01.240 --> 0:30:04.520
<v Speaker 2>the things you're gonna believe without you know, sufficient evidence,

0:30:04.520 --> 0:30:06.000
<v Speaker 2>and you're gonna believe them as much as you can

0:30:06.040 --> 0:30:07.960
<v Speaker 2>believe anything, and they're not on the table to be

0:30:08.440 --> 0:30:11.640
<v Speaker 2>argued against or revised right now in science. If you

0:30:11.840 --> 0:30:13.720
<v Speaker 2>if you can say, if you tell someone well that's

0:30:13.760 --> 0:30:16.800
<v Speaker 2>just you know, you're being dogmatic, or that's that's a dogma,

0:30:16.880 --> 0:30:19.360
<v Speaker 2>well that's not you know, that's definitely not a nice

0:30:19.360 --> 0:30:23.000
<v Speaker 2>thing to say about somebody's reasoning. So yeah, so this

0:30:23.080 --> 0:30:27.800
<v Speaker 2>is this is it's it's everywhere. And again, the hypothesis

0:30:27.880 --> 0:30:31.880
<v Speaker 2>going into this original uh neuroscientific work was that there's

0:30:31.920 --> 0:30:36.040
<v Speaker 2>something importantly similar across across all of these domains that

0:30:36.120 --> 0:30:40.440
<v Speaker 2>we're doing where you're you're just you're you're accepting a

0:30:40.520 --> 0:30:44.760
<v Speaker 2>representation as behaviorally valid or you're rejecting it as not

0:30:45.080 --> 0:30:47.520
<v Speaker 2>and or you're or you're in a kind of holding

0:30:47.560 --> 0:30:49.320
<v Speaker 2>pattern where you just can't know one way or the other.

0:30:49.360 --> 0:30:51.360
<v Speaker 1>But I still want to understand what is the difference,

0:30:51.680 --> 0:30:54.240
<v Speaker 1>either from neuroimaging studies or just how you've thought about

0:30:54.280 --> 0:30:56.880
<v Speaker 1>serveral years, What is the difference between let's say, scientific

0:30:57.200 --> 0:31:01.240
<v Speaker 1>and political and religious beliefs. That are all beliefs that

0:31:01.280 --> 0:31:04.760
<v Speaker 1>you might take to be true or false. But it

0:31:04.840 --> 0:31:09.280
<v Speaker 1>does feel like the social component is a really important

0:31:09.280 --> 0:31:12.800
<v Speaker 1>one to political beliefs, maybe scientific beliefs too. In some cases,

0:31:13.560 --> 0:31:18.280
<v Speaker 1>the emotional regulation might be really important to religious beliefs,

0:31:18.320 --> 0:31:20.200
<v Speaker 1>as in, I've got a lot of anxiety about this,

0:31:20.240 --> 0:31:21.840
<v Speaker 1>and this makes me feel better if I were to

0:31:21.880 --> 0:31:26.160
<v Speaker 1>accept that. So there are these different components about why

0:31:26.240 --> 0:31:29.360
<v Speaker 1>we believe. In other words, if we take the position

0:31:29.440 --> 0:31:33.040
<v Speaker 1>that belief isn't actually just about figuring out what's true

0:31:33.080 --> 0:31:35.280
<v Speaker 1>in the world, which we wish it were, but it's

0:31:35.320 --> 0:31:38.640
<v Speaker 1>clearly not that in brains. So this is my question

0:31:38.680 --> 0:31:42.000
<v Speaker 1>for you. How do you think about the when beliefs

0:31:42.040 --> 0:31:45.880
<v Speaker 1>are for the purpose of social cohesion, when they're for

0:31:45.920 --> 0:31:48.200
<v Speaker 1>the purpose of emotional regulation, and when they're for the

0:31:48.240 --> 0:31:52.320
<v Speaker 1>purpose of getting the right answer for predictive actorscy the world.

0:31:53.360 --> 0:31:56.400
<v Speaker 2>Well, I think all of that is still pretty knit together.

0:31:56.440 --> 0:32:01.480
<v Speaker 2>But yeah, I would I would agree that certain beliefs function,

0:32:02.640 --> 0:32:06.160
<v Speaker 2>or certain professions of belief at least functions kind of

0:32:06.240 --> 0:32:08.880
<v Speaker 2>you know, loyalty tests or signaling as a you know,

0:32:09.320 --> 0:32:13.640
<v Speaker 2>you know, a shibboleth as you know that where you're

0:32:14.160 --> 0:32:17.440
<v Speaker 2>signaling group membership, right like like we have a code,

0:32:17.640 --> 0:32:20.600
<v Speaker 2>and on that basis, there's a level of kind of

0:32:20.600 --> 0:32:25.280
<v Speaker 2>social trust and expectations about each other's ethical intuitions and

0:32:25.280 --> 0:32:29.520
<v Speaker 2>political commitments. And it's the kind of shorthand. But if

0:32:29.560 --> 0:32:33.240
<v Speaker 2>you're going to tear at those sort of core group

0:32:33.440 --> 0:32:38.520
<v Speaker 2>identity assertions, whether it's a you know it's a religious

0:32:38.880 --> 0:32:41.200
<v Speaker 2>you know, a mainstream religion or you know, small or

0:32:41.200 --> 0:32:45.200
<v Speaker 2>still like a spiritual or religious cult, or a political

0:32:45.280 --> 0:32:50.600
<v Speaker 2>cult say, or political culture, these are kind of anchoring

0:32:50.920 --> 0:32:53.800
<v Speaker 2>assertions about what is true about what really happened, about

0:32:53.800 --> 0:32:56.200
<v Speaker 2>what is real about the unique sanctity of a given book, say,

0:32:57.600 --> 0:32:59.960
<v Speaker 2>which we're not disposed to rein.

0:32:59.800 --> 0:33:01.000
<v Speaker 3>Tear very much.

0:33:01.080 --> 0:33:03.840
<v Speaker 2>And when you when you talk about specific things where

0:33:03.880 --> 0:33:09.320
<v Speaker 2>they really were, these different ways of knowing collide. There's

0:33:09.360 --> 0:33:11.160
<v Speaker 2>so many examples. He takes something like, you know, the

0:33:11.160 --> 0:33:13.920
<v Speaker 2>shroud of Turin which was thought to be this. Perhaps

0:33:13.960 --> 0:33:15.840
<v Speaker 2>in certain circles it still is thought to be that

0:33:15.880 --> 0:33:19.520
<v Speaker 2>this Christian relic where this shroud had had received the

0:33:20.840 --> 0:33:23.960
<v Speaker 2>facial imprint of Jesus, you know, it was thought to

0:33:24.000 --> 0:33:28.440
<v Speaker 2>be his burial shroud. But then carbon dating was done

0:33:28.520 --> 0:33:30.520
<v Speaker 2>on it and it was it was revealed to I think,

0:33:31.160 --> 0:33:34.600
<v Speaker 2>I think it's the thirteenth century relic. So it's you know,

0:33:34.640 --> 0:33:37.920
<v Speaker 2>it's kind of a thousand plus years off from being

0:33:37.920 --> 0:33:41.120
<v Speaker 2>the real shroud. So is this a claim about about

0:33:42.040 --> 0:33:44.760
<v Speaker 2>purely religion or is this now? I mean, once carbon

0:33:44.840 --> 0:33:48.560
<v Speaker 2>dating gets invented and you can you can use it,

0:33:48.560 --> 0:33:51.320
<v Speaker 2>it suddenly becomes a claim about about chemistry, right, you know.

0:33:51.640 --> 0:33:55.720
<v Speaker 2>And so I mean that is the the enduring tension

0:33:55.800 --> 0:33:59.440
<v Speaker 2>between science and religion. Whenever you're making claims about the world,

0:33:59.480 --> 0:34:03.680
<v Speaker 2>about the past, asked about what happens after death, that

0:34:03.760 --> 0:34:07.360
<v Speaker 2>the way the mind works, about the connections between people,

0:34:07.520 --> 0:34:12.560
<v Speaker 2>you know, tangible and invisible, you're at least in principle,

0:34:12.800 --> 0:34:18.160
<v Speaker 2>in principle risking making claims that wander onto the territory

0:34:18.200 --> 0:34:21.440
<v Speaker 2>of every other way we judge the truth value of

0:34:21.480 --> 0:34:22.360
<v Speaker 2>claims about the world.

0:34:22.719 --> 0:34:26.160
<v Speaker 1>So why is it so hard for let's say highly

0:34:26.200 --> 0:34:29.319
<v Speaker 1>intelligent people to come to agreement. I mean, we know

0:34:29.400 --> 0:34:33.600
<v Speaker 1>in any science department in a university, people argue. They

0:34:33.600 --> 0:34:36.720
<v Speaker 1>spend their careers arguing. Again, if this were just about

0:34:36.960 --> 0:34:40.680
<v Speaker 1>the brain trying to find predictive accuracy, that would be

0:34:40.760 --> 0:34:42.920
<v Speaker 1>very difficult to understand. But because of all these other

0:34:43.000 --> 0:34:47.239
<v Speaker 1>components to it, the social, the emotional, it's it's a

0:34:47.280 --> 0:34:48.399
<v Speaker 1>much more complicated thing.

0:34:48.480 --> 0:34:50.759
<v Speaker 2>The search for truth it is. I mean, you can

0:34:50.800 --> 0:34:54.840
<v Speaker 2>sharpen it up more than we tend to. For instance,

0:34:54.880 --> 0:34:58.200
<v Speaker 2>you can you can be alert to the problem of

0:34:58.640 --> 0:35:01.480
<v Speaker 2>someone making claims that are on falsifiable. Right. This is

0:35:01.520 --> 0:35:05.000
<v Speaker 2>something that that Carl Popper, the philosopher of science, gave

0:35:05.080 --> 0:35:09.200
<v Speaker 2>us just the the litmus test for him was the

0:35:09.320 --> 0:35:12.480
<v Speaker 2>falsifiability or lack there of a statement that was That

0:35:12.560 --> 0:35:15.960
<v Speaker 2>was how that was the boundary between science and and

0:35:16.600 --> 0:35:20.360
<v Speaker 2>the rest of our thinking. So what doesn't mean to

0:35:20.920 --> 0:35:23.840
<v Speaker 2>make a claim that is unfalsifiable? It means it means

0:35:23.840 --> 0:35:28.279
<v Speaker 2>that you're you're saying something is true. And yet there's

0:35:28.360 --> 0:35:32.440
<v Speaker 2>no state of the world that could know, even not

0:35:32.480 --> 0:35:34.640
<v Speaker 2>even in principle, a state of the world that we

0:35:34.640 --> 0:35:38.560
<v Speaker 2>can imagine that would report to the falsity of the claim.

0:35:38.560 --> 0:35:39.879
<v Speaker 3>Well, then you're it is.

0:35:40.280 --> 0:35:44.240
<v Speaker 2>What's an example, you know, this is a the world

0:35:44.440 --> 0:35:48.360
<v Speaker 2>as the entire world, the cosmos, everything that is apparently

0:35:48.400 --> 0:35:54.680
<v Speaker 2>real was created by God just you know, ten seconds ago.

0:35:55.520 --> 0:35:58.440
<v Speaker 2>But what God also created were all of the memories

0:35:58.440 --> 0:36:01.080
<v Speaker 2>and all of the backward looking evidence we think we

0:36:01.200 --> 0:36:04.800
<v Speaker 2>have about the antiquity of the cosmos. But the cosmos

0:36:04.840 --> 0:36:07.680
<v Speaker 2>is actually ten seconds old. We just have all these

0:36:07.760 --> 0:36:09.920
<v Speaker 2>memories jammed in our heads and all of this stuff

0:36:09.960 --> 0:36:12.560
<v Speaker 2>on the on the internet, et cetera. And the rocks

0:36:12.640 --> 0:36:14.640
<v Speaker 2>or the way they are and that, you know, so

0:36:14.960 --> 0:36:17.880
<v Speaker 2>nothing would be different. But you know, this is this

0:36:17.960 --> 0:36:19.759
<v Speaker 2>is my claim. This is my magical claim, right, so

0:36:20.200 --> 0:36:22.719
<v Speaker 2>it's unfalsifiable. You know, every time you're going to give

0:36:22.760 --> 0:36:25.160
<v Speaker 2>me something that you think would falsify falsified, I can

0:36:25.280 --> 0:36:28.239
<v Speaker 2>just kind of layer into that into the thesis. Well, no,

0:36:28.320 --> 0:36:30.680
<v Speaker 2>God made it that way so as to make it

0:36:30.719 --> 0:36:33.759
<v Speaker 2>seem like, you know that way, right, So we're not

0:36:34.040 --> 0:36:37.120
<v Speaker 2>We tend to not be interested in claims like that

0:36:37.200 --> 0:36:40.759
<v Speaker 2>for good reason, right, because they're just they're not one

0:36:40.840 --> 0:36:44.440
<v Speaker 2>they you know, there's they run against the grain of

0:36:44.480 --> 0:36:48.919
<v Speaker 2>a very useful heuristic. We have in science, which goes

0:36:49.120 --> 0:36:53.600
<v Speaker 2>by the name of Oakham's razor, but more generically, just

0:36:53.640 --> 0:36:57.600
<v Speaker 2>the idea of that a thesis should be in so

0:36:57.680 --> 0:37:01.040
<v Speaker 2>far as it's possible, parsimonious, right, Like you shouldn't just

0:37:01.840 --> 0:37:05.680
<v Speaker 2>proliferate your you know, claims, you know, so as to

0:37:05.719 --> 0:37:08.320
<v Speaker 2>shore up I mean, we don't want epicycles within epicycles

0:37:08.360 --> 0:37:11.640
<v Speaker 2>within epicycles. We want the most elegant, you know, simple

0:37:12.520 --> 0:37:14.280
<v Speaker 2>thesis that still conserves the data.

0:37:15.040 --> 0:37:18.000
<v Speaker 1>But I still want to understand. If you got let's say,

0:37:18.040 --> 0:37:21.040
<v Speaker 1>Popper and Spinoza in a room together. Here, you've got

0:37:21.040 --> 0:37:24.960
<v Speaker 1>two very clear thinkers, but there would be beliefs that

0:37:25.040 --> 0:37:27.359
<v Speaker 1>each of them hold that they would end up disagreeing on.

0:37:28.360 --> 0:37:30.759
<v Speaker 1>And again I'm just I'm just circling back to this

0:37:30.840 --> 0:37:35.680
<v Speaker 1>point that it's it can't be just about the rational.

0:37:35.719 --> 0:37:38.960
<v Speaker 1>There are all these other reasons why humans hold beliefs,

0:37:39.239 --> 0:37:40.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, the social and emotional or the things I

0:37:41.040 --> 0:37:43.960
<v Speaker 1>keep hanging on about. But this feels important to me

0:37:44.800 --> 0:37:47.239
<v Speaker 1>in terms of understanding why it is so difficult, why

0:37:47.320 --> 0:37:50.600
<v Speaker 1>there's such polarization. Because what would be great is if

0:37:50.600 --> 0:37:55.319
<v Speaker 1>we could sit down and you know, make our statements

0:37:55.560 --> 0:37:58.399
<v Speaker 1>shout everything in all caps on X or blue sky,

0:37:58.719 --> 0:38:02.440
<v Speaker 1>and everyone sees the logic and says, oh, okay, we agree,

0:38:02.719 --> 0:38:04.360
<v Speaker 1>and and the whole world would come to agreement, but

0:38:04.400 --> 0:38:06.920
<v Speaker 1>that that will never happen. And and I've just been

0:38:06.920 --> 0:38:13.080
<v Speaker 1>curious about why why beliefs are so different in different

0:38:13.080 --> 0:38:15.160
<v Speaker 1>heads and often so intractable.

0:38:15.280 --> 0:38:18.200
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, well, people have I mean, obviously the people are

0:38:18.320 --> 0:38:23.000
<v Speaker 2>driven by more than just a desire to not be

0:38:23.080 --> 0:38:25.560
<v Speaker 2>wrong right, or to have or to to have their

0:38:26.239 --> 0:38:32.680
<v Speaker 2>their representations of the world be accurate in the abstract.

0:38:32.719 --> 0:38:34.680
<v Speaker 2>I mean, people are incentivized by the things. You know.

0:38:34.719 --> 0:38:37.520
<v Speaker 2>It's like, you know, there's the the famous line that

0:38:37.640 --> 0:38:40.040
<v Speaker 2>now I've actually forgotten how it goes, but something you know,

0:38:40.080 --> 0:38:42.440
<v Speaker 2>it's hard to convince a man of of something that

0:38:42.719 --> 0:38:45.080
<v Speaker 2>one of his occupation requires that he not be convinced

0:38:45.080 --> 0:38:46.440
<v Speaker 2>of it, or something like that, right, you know. So

0:38:46.440 --> 0:38:48.560
<v Speaker 2>it's like it's like, yes, if you're if you stand

0:38:48.560 --> 0:38:50.560
<v Speaker 2>to lose a lot of money if a certain a

0:38:50.560 --> 0:38:53.080
<v Speaker 2>certain state of the world is so, you're going to

0:38:53.160 --> 0:38:55.239
<v Speaker 2>tend to avert your eyes from that for as long

0:38:55.239 --> 0:38:57.600
<v Speaker 2>as possible, because you're I mean, this is just the

0:38:58.160 --> 0:39:01.080
<v Speaker 2>the classic problem of and says I mean just it's

0:39:01.120 --> 0:39:01.960
<v Speaker 2>a perverse incentive.

0:39:02.040 --> 0:39:02.160
<v Speaker 3>Right.

0:39:02.239 --> 0:39:05.960
<v Speaker 2>So in science we have worked this out to a

0:39:06.000 --> 0:39:08.400
<v Speaker 2>remarkable degree. I mean, the thing that distinguishes the culture

0:39:08.400 --> 0:39:11.960
<v Speaker 2>of science. It's not perfect, but what distinguishes science from

0:39:11.960 --> 0:39:16.160
<v Speaker 2>basically everything else human beings do is that we have

0:39:16.239 --> 0:39:22.920
<v Speaker 2>created a culture where there's a competitive apparatus that is

0:39:23.760 --> 0:39:26.440
<v Speaker 2>error correcting by its very nature, right, Like where you know,

0:39:26.200 --> 0:39:30.759
<v Speaker 2>we could both be in neuroscience and have rival theses

0:39:31.400 --> 0:39:34.120
<v Speaker 2>and we're trying to you know, could falsify each other's

0:39:34.160 --> 0:39:38.560
<v Speaker 2>claims or at least pressure tests them. And science is

0:39:38.600 --> 0:39:41.680
<v Speaker 2>the only part of culture where you can actually win

0:39:41.840 --> 0:39:44.920
<v Speaker 2>points for proving yourself wrong, right, I mean, just, I

0:39:44.920 --> 0:39:46.920
<v Speaker 2>mean it doesn't happen as much as we would want

0:39:46.960 --> 0:39:51.279
<v Speaker 2>it to, but it is. It really is a kind

0:39:51.280 --> 0:39:55.120
<v Speaker 2>of a gold standard moment of scientific communication for somebody

0:39:55.200 --> 0:39:58.759
<v Speaker 2>who has had a cherished thesis for you know, decades,

0:39:58.880 --> 0:40:02.400
<v Speaker 2>to admit he or she was wrong about basically everything

0:40:02.960 --> 0:40:07.000
<v Speaker 2>in public and to thank the person who did the

0:40:07.040 --> 0:40:09.120
<v Speaker 2>work that showed that he or.

0:40:09.040 --> 0:40:09.600
<v Speaker 3>She was wrong.

0:40:09.680 --> 0:40:13.120
<v Speaker 2>Right, I mean that you know, people people have you know, again,

0:40:13.200 --> 0:40:15.040
<v Speaker 2>it probably doesn't happen in real time as much as

0:40:15.040 --> 0:40:16.960
<v Speaker 2>we would want, but it certainly happens. And it is

0:40:17.320 --> 0:40:21.080
<v Speaker 2>it really is the quintessence of the scientific enterprise, right

0:40:21.840 --> 0:40:24.960
<v Speaker 2>and and and what what is not the quintessence is

0:40:25.000 --> 0:40:30.960
<v Speaker 2>to see some scientist who is just clearly emotionally attached

0:40:31.480 --> 0:40:34.360
<v Speaker 2>to all of the sunk costs of his work, you know,

0:40:34.400 --> 0:40:36.960
<v Speaker 2>his work and his reputation, and he's been known for

0:40:37.000 --> 0:40:40.480
<v Speaker 2>this thing and this now, this battered thesis, is losing

0:40:40.480 --> 0:40:45.000
<v Speaker 2>his credibility among the next generation of scientists. And this yet,

0:40:45.080 --> 0:40:48.920
<v Speaker 2>this old warhorse, is holding on to this doomed project

0:40:49.360 --> 0:40:52.799
<v Speaker 2>despite the fact that there's a now mountain of good

0:40:52.880 --> 0:40:56.240
<v Speaker 2>argument and good evidence piling up against him. At that moment,

0:40:56.400 --> 0:41:00.640
<v Speaker 2>it's actually right, you know, it begins to seem more

0:41:00.680 --> 0:41:03.799
<v Speaker 2>correct to say that what he's doing is it's not

0:41:03.880 --> 0:41:06.480
<v Speaker 2>like an alternative version of science. It's like it's like

0:41:06.520 --> 0:41:09.200
<v Speaker 2>no longer science, right, Like you're you're failing these these

0:41:09.239 --> 0:41:13.080
<v Speaker 2>obvious tests of credibility and the obstacle course has become

0:41:13.239 --> 0:41:16.080
<v Speaker 2>too complicated for you emotionally for some reason, and you're

0:41:16.120 --> 0:41:17.200
<v Speaker 2>no longer navigating it.

0:41:17.400 --> 0:41:31.760
<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

0:41:32.120 --> 0:41:34.920
<v Speaker 1>So okay, So this brings up something about science that

0:41:35.000 --> 0:41:37.440
<v Speaker 1>I flagged earlier that I wanted to come back to

0:41:37.600 --> 0:41:41.680
<v Speaker 1>which is so when I read these original your papers

0:41:41.719 --> 0:41:44.759
<v Speaker 1>from two thousand and eight and two thousand and nine. Right,

0:41:44.840 --> 0:41:48.000
<v Speaker 1>So there's there's a belief that you think is true,

0:41:48.040 --> 0:41:51.000
<v Speaker 1>belief that is false, and then the uncertain ones that

0:41:51.040 --> 0:41:53.680
<v Speaker 1>you just don't know about. But what's so interesting to me?

0:41:54.200 --> 0:41:59.080
<v Speaker 1>As we know in science there's instead a waiting or

0:41:59.120 --> 0:42:02.120
<v Speaker 1>a probability that we put on different sorts of beliefs,

0:42:02.280 --> 0:42:04.960
<v Speaker 1>and even our most cherished beliefs. We never use the

0:42:05.000 --> 0:42:07.719
<v Speaker 1>word truth in science. We say, Okay, the way to

0:42:07.760 --> 0:42:11.000
<v Speaker 1>the evidence supports this, and if in a few years

0:42:11.040 --> 0:42:13.200
<v Speaker 1>the way that the evidence might support something else, fine

0:42:13.280 --> 0:42:16.120
<v Speaker 1>we go with that. And so I'm curious how you

0:42:16.160 --> 0:42:18.080
<v Speaker 1>would I know this wasn't part of the study, but

0:42:18.120 --> 0:42:21.480
<v Speaker 1>how you might think about beliefs of this sort, which

0:42:21.560 --> 0:42:24.959
<v Speaker 1>is the type that we hold in science of saying okay, well,

0:42:25.400 --> 0:42:27.840
<v Speaker 1>there's mountain of evidence here. Some of it points the

0:42:27.840 --> 0:42:29.719
<v Speaker 1>other way, someone points off this way, but most of

0:42:29.760 --> 0:42:30.680
<v Speaker 1>it is pointing over here.

0:42:31.280 --> 0:42:31.440
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:42:31.440 --> 0:42:34.040
<v Speaker 2>Well, I do think that virtually all of our beliefs

0:42:34.040 --> 0:42:37.600
<v Speaker 2>are probabilistic. I mean, certainly in science explicitly so, I

0:42:37.600 --> 0:42:40.240
<v Speaker 2>mean we have been we have been beaten into shape

0:42:40.239 --> 0:42:43.319
<v Speaker 2>on that on that point, then again by largely by

0:42:43.320 --> 0:42:47.000
<v Speaker 2>Popper but by others where we just know we know

0:42:47.160 --> 0:42:49.719
<v Speaker 2>enough now to not say that's you know, we're one

0:42:49.800 --> 0:42:52.319
<v Speaker 2>hundred percent certain something, and so it's just the way

0:42:52.360 --> 0:42:54.440
<v Speaker 2>of the evidence, et cetera. Yeah, I mean, just in

0:42:54.800 --> 0:42:59.160
<v Speaker 2>very simple terms. And you could imagine being absolutely certain,

0:42:59.320 --> 0:43:02.360
<v Speaker 2>based on your or understanding of mathematics, that every triangle

0:43:02.400 --> 0:43:03.600
<v Speaker 2>has one hundred and eighty degrees.

0:43:04.400 --> 0:43:04.680
<v Speaker 1>Uh.

0:43:04.719 --> 0:43:07.760
<v Speaker 2>And I'd say, well, you know you're you're certain certain

0:43:07.800 --> 0:43:10.399
<v Speaker 2>and yes, absolutely certain. Would you be willing to bet

0:43:10.400 --> 0:43:13.239
<v Speaker 2>your life that it's so? And you might balk a

0:43:13.239 --> 0:43:15.880
<v Speaker 2>little bit and say, yeah, yeah, i'd be. If i'd

0:43:15.880 --> 0:43:17.759
<v Speaker 2>better on anything, I'd better on that. Well, it's it's

0:43:17.800 --> 0:43:19.560
<v Speaker 2>sort of like two plus to equals four for me.

0:43:20.040 --> 0:43:23.880
<v Speaker 2>But then someone introduces to you a concept of you know,

0:43:23.960 --> 0:43:28.640
<v Speaker 2>non look Euclidean geometry that you didn't know before, right,

0:43:28.680 --> 0:43:30.719
<v Speaker 2>So like you've just what you had in mind was

0:43:31.000 --> 0:43:32.520
<v Speaker 2>a triangle on a flat surface.

0:43:32.920 --> 0:43:34.640
<v Speaker 3>But now the basketball.

0:43:34.719 --> 0:43:37.359
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, but now someone like Remond comes along and says, yeah,

0:43:37.760 --> 0:43:40.280
<v Speaker 2>just visualize this. We're now going to curve the space.

0:43:40.680 --> 0:43:43.640
<v Speaker 2>What's happening to that triangle on the basketball doesn't look

0:43:43.680 --> 0:43:44.920
<v Speaker 2>like a little bit, a little more, a little less one

0:43:45.000 --> 0:43:51.000
<v Speaker 2>hundred degrees. All of a sudden, your intuitions get knocked around,

0:43:51.320 --> 0:43:54.480
<v Speaker 2>And if you're rational, you are now going to update

0:43:54.520 --> 0:43:58.200
<v Speaker 2>your file about triangles, right, and so if if a

0:43:58.320 --> 0:44:01.759
<v Speaker 2>core belief about something that's simple as a triangle can

0:44:01.800 --> 0:44:04.719
<v Speaker 2>be overturned, But you just had a further utterance from

0:44:04.800 --> 0:44:06.480
<v Speaker 2>you know, somebody who knows more about math and you,

0:44:07.320 --> 0:44:10.520
<v Speaker 2>what is truly off the table for revision is probably

0:44:10.520 --> 0:44:11.080
<v Speaker 2>not much.

0:44:12.640 --> 0:44:13.600
<v Speaker 3>I wish that were true.

0:44:13.600 --> 0:44:15.960
<v Speaker 1>I think I may be more pessimistic than you on

0:44:16.040 --> 0:44:19.600
<v Speaker 1>this point, which is, you might easily convince me about

0:44:19.680 --> 0:44:23.239
<v Speaker 1>a triangle, But core beliefs that I might have on

0:44:23.320 --> 0:44:29.160
<v Speaker 1>any hot button political issue, those are tougher. I'm using myself.

0:44:29.520 --> 0:44:33.239
<v Speaker 3>Can give me an example, Oh, whatever.

0:44:33.000 --> 0:44:36.000
<v Speaker 1>Your views are on abortion or gun control or whatever,

0:44:38.960 --> 0:44:42.120
<v Speaker 1>those are resistant to change because it's not as simple

0:44:42.120 --> 0:44:45.440
<v Speaker 1>as a logical thing of Oh, I see the triangle

0:44:45.440 --> 0:44:48.720
<v Speaker 1>on the basketball. Got it, I've now changed my model.

0:44:49.480 --> 0:44:53.680
<v Speaker 2>But I'm sure certainly in both of those cases there

0:44:53.760 --> 0:44:58.040
<v Speaker 2>is much more information that could be forthcoming on either

0:44:58.080 --> 0:45:03.440
<v Speaker 2>topic that could push someone's because because people's intuitions, especially

0:45:03.520 --> 0:45:07.560
<v Speaker 2>on those two topics tend to be anchored to like

0:45:07.840 --> 0:45:10.319
<v Speaker 2>some meme that got in their head, you know, very

0:45:10.440 --> 0:45:13.560
<v Speaker 2>likely early in life, that doesn't actually have a lot

0:45:13.600 --> 0:45:15.799
<v Speaker 2>of content to it. So it's like the claim that

0:45:15.840 --> 0:45:19.160
<v Speaker 2>abortion is wrong. That that that, you know, I'll drill

0:45:19.200 --> 0:45:21.160
<v Speaker 2>down on that a little bit. It felt it's likely

0:45:21.200 --> 0:45:25.439
<v Speaker 2>backed up by utterances like life starts at the moment

0:45:25.480 --> 0:45:25.920
<v Speaker 2>of conception.

0:45:26.719 --> 0:45:28.040
<v Speaker 3>Right. That's like if you.

0:45:28.440 --> 0:45:32.240
<v Speaker 2>If you're if you're a you know, a religious believer

0:45:32.239 --> 0:45:35.000
<v Speaker 2>who believes abortion is wrong, Well, that's it's just that's

0:45:35.000 --> 0:45:37.640
<v Speaker 2>not true. If you're if you're a Muslim, that's just

0:45:37.680 --> 0:45:41.000
<v Speaker 2>not true. You know, in the Muslim faith, I believe

0:45:43.360 --> 0:45:47.120
<v Speaker 2>the soul is thought enter the zygote. I think around

0:45:47.200 --> 0:45:50.040
<v Speaker 2>day eighty. It's either day eighty, day one, twenty something

0:45:50.120 --> 0:45:53.600
<v Speaker 2>like that. So but definitely not at the moment of conception.

0:45:53.760 --> 0:45:53.920
<v Speaker 3>Right.

0:45:53.960 --> 0:45:57.400
<v Speaker 2>So, Okay, perhaps you're a Muslim who just didn't know

0:45:57.440 --> 0:45:59.160
<v Speaker 2>that that was the doctrine, right, so someone told you

0:45:59.239 --> 0:46:01.960
<v Speaker 2>life was started the conception. But then but then they

0:46:02.040 --> 0:46:04.520
<v Speaker 2>actually check that the Holy Books and and and it

0:46:04.600 --> 0:46:06.960
<v Speaker 2>turns out you're wrong. Okay, that's kind of like triangles

0:46:07.000 --> 0:46:09.200
<v Speaker 2>all of a sudden. So it is with gun control.

0:46:09.239 --> 0:46:11.680
<v Speaker 2>I mean, people just don't know a lot about guns.

0:46:11.680 --> 0:46:13.640
<v Speaker 2>They don't know a lot about the actual statistics of

0:46:13.840 --> 0:46:15.640
<v Speaker 2>human violence, and they don't know how many people get

0:46:15.640 --> 0:46:17.719
<v Speaker 2>shot and how they get shot and why, and they

0:46:17.880 --> 0:46:23.080
<v Speaker 2>just they tend to have they just I mean, it's

0:46:23.120 --> 0:46:25.640
<v Speaker 2>just there's just a it's a thicket of ignorance and

0:46:25.680 --> 0:46:27.920
<v Speaker 2>assumption on on lots of these topics.

0:46:28.040 --> 0:46:29.359
<v Speaker 3>And and I'm not.

0:46:29.280 --> 0:46:31.560
<v Speaker 1>Sure I agree with this in the following sense, just

0:46:31.600 --> 0:46:36.000
<v Speaker 1>because I've I've known very closely family members and friends

0:46:36.080 --> 0:46:39.480
<v Speaker 1>on very different sides of this issue who are extraordinarily

0:46:39.520 --> 0:46:45.680
<v Speaker 1>knowledgeable and bring up an infinite encyclopedia of statistics about

0:46:45.719 --> 0:46:49.560
<v Speaker 1>these issues. But they're on opposite sides, right, So so ignorance,

0:46:49.960 --> 0:46:52.200
<v Speaker 1>isn't I think a way that we can explain away

0:46:52.880 --> 0:46:54.440
<v Speaker 1>some people's positions on this.

0:46:55.840 --> 0:46:59.919
<v Speaker 2>Well, I'll grant you that it is possible for two

0:47:00.080 --> 0:47:03.279
<v Speaker 2>people to have more or less the same set of

0:47:03.360 --> 0:47:06.400
<v Speaker 2>facts and to feel very differently about them. And then

0:47:06.480 --> 0:47:09.040
<v Speaker 2>the question is what explains that?

0:47:09.239 --> 0:47:12.279
<v Speaker 3>Right? So what else? What else do they believe? Right?

0:47:12.320 --> 0:47:14.960
<v Speaker 1>What's about their internal model in this world and their

0:47:15.000 --> 0:47:18.840
<v Speaker 1>expectations about the future and the government of the future,

0:47:18.920 --> 0:47:21.279
<v Speaker 1>and the crime of the future and so on that

0:47:21.400 --> 0:47:24.200
<v Speaker 1>makes them feel that, hey, I don't need a gun

0:47:24.239 --> 0:47:25.400
<v Speaker 1>to a house. I do need to gun to a

0:47:25.400 --> 0:47:26.080
<v Speaker 1>house whatever it is.

0:47:26.160 --> 0:47:29.360
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, So in that case, I would say they're waiting

0:47:29.640 --> 0:47:34.080
<v Speaker 2>different probabilities. I mean, so, it's almost never the case,

0:47:34.360 --> 0:47:37.239
<v Speaker 2>especially for that debate. It's almost never the case that

0:47:37.239 --> 0:47:40.400
<v Speaker 2>you're talking about two people who are in touch with

0:47:40.440 --> 0:47:42.239
<v Speaker 2>the same set of facts, because it's just, you know,

0:47:42.320 --> 0:47:45.200
<v Speaker 2>the people who are deep into gun culture, who are

0:47:45.239 --> 0:47:47.680
<v Speaker 2>it's all about the Second Amendment, and they're happy, they

0:47:47.719 --> 0:47:51.080
<v Speaker 2>love shooting guns, they have guns, they're comfortable around guns,

0:47:51.480 --> 0:47:54.879
<v Speaker 2>they know they can store them safely, say, and they

0:47:54.920 --> 0:47:59.160
<v Speaker 2>have a very They've spent ten thousand hours rehearsing scenarios

0:47:59.200 --> 0:48:01.160
<v Speaker 2>where they would have to defend their lives or the

0:48:01.200 --> 0:48:04.680
<v Speaker 2>lives of their loved ones against some malicious intruder. And

0:48:04.719 --> 0:48:08.120
<v Speaker 2>that's there, you know, that's become, you know, a deep

0:48:08.120 --> 0:48:12.319
<v Speaker 2>part of their identity. Even that person is dealing with

0:48:12.360 --> 0:48:14.359
<v Speaker 2>a very different set of facts. And the person who

0:48:15.040 --> 0:48:18.080
<v Speaker 2>has no experience with guns, doesn't want any experience with guns,

0:48:18.080 --> 0:48:21.160
<v Speaker 2>hates guns, thinks they're dangerous, thinks that it's just appalling

0:48:21.200 --> 0:48:22.799
<v Speaker 2>that we live in a society that has so many

0:48:22.840 --> 0:48:26.080
<v Speaker 2>guns and we've got this absurd level of gun violence

0:48:26.440 --> 0:48:29.680
<v Speaker 2>that's unrecorded, that that makes us an outlier of an

0:48:29.680 --> 0:48:32.440
<v Speaker 2>outlier in you know, other in the developed world than

0:48:32.520 --> 0:48:34.480
<v Speaker 2>just to kind of it just just we're just as

0:48:34.480 --> 0:48:35.480
<v Speaker 2>a horror show.

0:48:36.120 --> 0:48:36.880
<v Speaker 3>How did we get here?

0:48:36.920 --> 0:48:39.719
<v Speaker 2>It's it's like just pure masochism that we were living

0:48:39.760 --> 0:48:42.200
<v Speaker 2>with this, you know, the religion of the Second Amendment. Right,

0:48:42.239 --> 0:48:45.440
<v Speaker 2>So those two the people, no matter how well informed

0:48:45.480 --> 0:48:49.160
<v Speaker 2>each representative of those two camps thinks they are, I

0:48:49.200 --> 0:48:52.200
<v Speaker 2>guarantee you that in almost every case, they have very

0:48:52.200 --> 0:48:54.560
<v Speaker 2>different beliefs about what is actually true in the world

0:48:54.600 --> 0:48:55.400
<v Speaker 2>with respect.

0:48:55.120 --> 0:48:56.480
<v Speaker 3>To the races of violence.

0:48:56.520 --> 0:48:58.399
<v Speaker 1>It might both be holding on to facts, though they're

0:48:58.440 --> 0:49:02.520
<v Speaker 1>paying attention to different facts. So the gun owner is

0:49:02.560 --> 0:49:05.560
<v Speaker 1>paying attention to things like tyrannies of governments and what

0:49:05.600 --> 0:49:08.239
<v Speaker 1>happens when governments take guns away from the citizens and

0:49:08.239 --> 0:49:10.279
<v Speaker 1>so on. Those are the kind of facts they draw up.

0:49:10.640 --> 0:49:14.240
<v Speaker 1>The gun non owner is drawing up facts about crime

0:49:15.080 --> 0:49:18.000
<v Speaker 1>and how many accidents happen in households with guns and

0:49:18.040 --> 0:49:18.359
<v Speaker 1>so on.

0:49:18.680 --> 0:49:21.600
<v Speaker 2>But they might have those facts wrong. So like the

0:49:21.640 --> 0:49:24.400
<v Speaker 2>non gun owner will believe that it's almost never the

0:49:24.400 --> 0:49:27.000
<v Speaker 2>case that someone successfully defends himself with a gun or

0:49:27.239 --> 0:49:29.160
<v Speaker 2>defends his family with a gun. That just doesn't happen.

0:49:29.200 --> 0:49:33.400
<v Speaker 2>That's just NRA propaganda. What really happens is kids accidentally

0:49:33.440 --> 0:49:35.560
<v Speaker 2>get a hold of their parents' guns and get shot

0:49:35.600 --> 0:49:38.319
<v Speaker 2>and shoot themselves or shoot someone else, and it's a tragedy, right.

0:49:39.560 --> 0:49:41.200
<v Speaker 3>And the statistics.

0:49:40.560 --> 0:49:44.360
<v Speaker 2>Around gun violence are highly politicized, and it's very hard

0:49:44.560 --> 0:49:47.040
<v Speaker 2>in fact to go in with an open mind and

0:49:47.080 --> 0:49:50.000
<v Speaker 2>figure out what is actually just real, you know, empirically,

0:49:51.080 --> 0:49:54.840
<v Speaker 2>because it's been so polarized. But even if we create

0:49:55.200 --> 0:49:58.439
<v Speaker 2>the perfect case where they really do have the same

0:49:58.480 --> 0:50:02.359
<v Speaker 2>sets of facts, uh with respect to what is being

0:50:02.400 --> 0:50:08.320
<v Speaker 2>talked about, there are other facts and other propositional attitudes

0:50:08.440 --> 0:50:12.120
<v Speaker 2>beliefs that are covertly working to change the sort of

0:50:12.200 --> 0:50:14.239
<v Speaker 2>the waitings that they're giving to all of these facts.

0:50:14.280 --> 0:50:17.400
<v Speaker 2>So like there are people who are just for whom

0:50:18.160 --> 0:50:23.680
<v Speaker 2>the prospect of being finding themselves helpless to defend themselves

0:50:23.800 --> 0:50:27.760
<v Speaker 2>or their their loved ones from evil. That is the

0:50:27.840 --> 0:50:30.560
<v Speaker 2>that is an outcome that is so bad, I mean,

0:50:30.600 --> 0:50:33.680
<v Speaker 2>the utility function that the that is that is so

0:50:33.800 --> 0:50:35.480
<v Speaker 2>much worse than all the other bad things that could

0:50:35.480 --> 0:50:39.880
<v Speaker 2>happen in life that whatever low probability you put on it,

0:50:40.320 --> 0:50:42.040
<v Speaker 2>like the probability Let's say we could agree about the

0:50:42.040 --> 0:50:44.560
<v Speaker 2>probability of a home home invasion, you know, where the

0:50:44.560 --> 0:50:46.719
<v Speaker 2>person has come to murder you and your family, Right,

0:50:46.760 --> 0:50:51.440
<v Speaker 2>whatever that probability is. If I wait that as worse

0:50:51.640 --> 0:50:56.320
<v Speaker 2>than everyone dying in a fire, and and and a

0:50:56.480 --> 0:50:58.880
<v Speaker 2>hundred other things that you think are probably worse than

0:50:58.920 --> 0:51:01.839
<v Speaker 2>than than a home invasion, then we just have we

0:51:01.960 --> 0:51:05.160
<v Speaker 2>just have different utility functions. Yeah, right, And that's and

0:51:05.280 --> 0:51:07.800
<v Speaker 2>that is often at play. I mean, that's where emotion

0:51:08.520 --> 0:51:11.480
<v Speaker 2>comes into it. Where you see people get really you know,

0:51:11.520 --> 0:51:16.120
<v Speaker 2>we seem like we're just having a conversation about facts,

0:51:16.200 --> 0:51:21.200
<v Speaker 2>but you see people, even granting the same sets of facts,

0:51:21.840 --> 0:51:28.480
<v Speaker 2>become highly polarized and energized around the significance of those facts.

0:51:28.800 --> 0:51:32.080
<v Speaker 1>Yes, yeah, I couldn't agree more. And this is why

0:51:32.120 --> 0:51:34.560
<v Speaker 1>I feel like I'm still trying to figure out how

0:51:34.600 --> 0:51:39.880
<v Speaker 1>to think about beliefs because so much of our positioning

0:51:39.960 --> 0:51:43.120
<v Speaker 1>on everything has to do with these other issues. And

0:51:43.520 --> 0:51:47.080
<v Speaker 1>I've I mean, I watched this all through the last

0:51:47.080 --> 0:51:50.960
<v Speaker 1>decade where people will end up switching political allegiances not

0:51:51.200 --> 0:51:53.799
<v Speaker 1>because they like the fact, so much of the other

0:51:54.120 --> 0:51:58.680
<v Speaker 1>side it's because something discuss disgusts them about their own side,

0:51:59.000 --> 0:52:01.440
<v Speaker 1>something gets said to them, or someone accuses them of

0:52:01.480 --> 0:52:03.960
<v Speaker 1>something and they get so mad about it, and that's

0:52:04.000 --> 0:52:04.959
<v Speaker 1>what drives them.

0:52:05.920 --> 0:52:06.120
<v Speaker 4>Well.

0:52:06.160 --> 0:52:10.400
<v Speaker 2>But politics, I mean, one thing that's so frustrating about

0:52:10.440 --> 0:52:14.440
<v Speaker 2>politics is that it should be the space in which

0:52:14.480 --> 0:52:22.960
<v Speaker 2>we we rationally operate so as to cooperatively produce outcomes

0:52:23.000 --> 0:52:24.880
<v Speaker 2>that that you know, improve our lives.

0:52:24.960 --> 0:52:27.279
<v Speaker 3>Right. So it's like we politics really is.

0:52:28.400 --> 0:52:32.480
<v Speaker 2>An art of cooperation and yet and to do that, well,

0:52:33.520 --> 0:52:36.560
<v Speaker 2>we really have to be mean, you know, reason has

0:52:36.600 --> 0:52:41.160
<v Speaker 2>to be the master value, and what's true, what's plausible?

0:52:41.920 --> 0:52:42.320
<v Speaker 3>Uh?

0:52:42.400 --> 0:52:45.200
<v Speaker 2>And then the ethics. You know, you can't keep ethics

0:52:45.200 --> 0:52:46.520
<v Speaker 2>out of it. I mean, there are questions of what's

0:52:46.520 --> 0:52:50.120
<v Speaker 2>fair and what's et cetera, what is what is good?

0:52:50.640 --> 0:52:54.520
<v Speaker 2>What should we value? But so much of it is

0:52:55.200 --> 0:52:59.120
<v Speaker 2>pure tribalism, right, And it's pure in group signaling and

0:52:59.280 --> 0:53:03.400
<v Speaker 2>outgroup disparagement, and it's and and there when that is

0:53:03.440 --> 0:53:08.520
<v Speaker 2>the becoming the master value, it's just it's just not

0:53:08.719 --> 0:53:12.560
<v Speaker 2>about honestly talking about the world at all. Right, You

0:53:12.680 --> 0:53:14.600
<v Speaker 2>just like, like, I mean, in so far as you're

0:53:14.640 --> 0:53:17.560
<v Speaker 2>trading and claims about you know, the purport to be

0:53:17.640 --> 0:53:22.280
<v Speaker 2>fact based, it's still what you're really doing is it's

0:53:22.320 --> 0:53:24.160
<v Speaker 2>a team sport and you're trying to figure out how

0:53:24.160 --> 0:53:26.000
<v Speaker 2>to win, Right, You're just trying to So if you're

0:53:26.000 --> 0:53:31.520
<v Speaker 2>saying negative things about the opposition, you begin to not

0:53:31.680 --> 0:53:35.359
<v Speaker 2>care whether they're even true. Let's just see what can stick, Right,

0:53:35.640 --> 0:53:38.480
<v Speaker 2>this guy's a you know, this guy's a child molester. Well,

0:53:38.600 --> 0:53:41.000
<v Speaker 2>what's your evidence for that? I you know, I don't know.

0:53:41.040 --> 0:53:44.520
<v Speaker 2>I saw something somewhere on social media. But you know,

0:53:44.600 --> 0:53:46.879
<v Speaker 2>like if I keep repeating it, you know, enough people

0:53:46.880 --> 0:53:48.400
<v Speaker 2>are going to think he's a child molester that it

0:53:48.440 --> 0:53:50.759
<v Speaker 2>could harmless chances come election time.

0:53:50.840 --> 0:53:50.960
<v Speaker 3>Right.

0:53:51.000 --> 0:53:53.520
<v Speaker 2>So it's like that's the game, and it's awful. Right,

0:53:53.560 --> 0:53:59.000
<v Speaker 2>It's just so degrading in principle because it's leveraging the

0:53:59.040 --> 0:54:04.000
<v Speaker 2>most anti social emotions. Mostly it's leveraging fear and outrage.

0:54:04.000 --> 0:54:07.880
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I get irrational fear and outrage and false

0:54:07.920 --> 0:54:10.560
<v Speaker 2>certainty or the pretense of certainty where you actually have

0:54:10.600 --> 0:54:12.200
<v Speaker 2>no rational basis for certainty.

0:54:12.400 --> 0:54:14.560
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, And in fact, this reminds me I want to

0:54:14.560 --> 0:54:17.520
<v Speaker 1>come back to something at the very beginning about a

0:54:18.040 --> 0:54:22.040
<v Speaker 1>belief that one might think is false. You found that

0:54:22.040 --> 0:54:25.680
<v Speaker 1>that activates the anterior insula, presumably a sense of disgust

0:54:25.719 --> 0:54:30.279
<v Speaker 1>about that. I wonder the degree to which this might

0:54:30.360 --> 0:54:34.840
<v Speaker 1>differ based on different false information, some false information. For example,

0:54:34.880 --> 0:54:41.279
<v Speaker 1>you see something online clearly misinformation, disinformation, and one might

0:54:41.360 --> 0:54:46.000
<v Speaker 1>think this is really a concern for my side of

0:54:46.040 --> 0:54:49.040
<v Speaker 1>the political argument, or for my you know, ethnic group,

0:54:49.160 --> 0:54:53.920
<v Speaker 1>or for my anything this kind of misinformation. I'm simulating

0:54:53.920 --> 0:54:57.239
<v Speaker 1>the future. What if everyone believed this piece of misinformation

0:54:57.600 --> 0:55:02.840
<v Speaker 1>that's really disastrous? And so I wonder if some sorts

0:55:02.880 --> 0:55:07.359
<v Speaker 1>of misinform, let's say, false beliefs, our reaction to them

0:55:07.440 --> 0:55:10.360
<v Speaker 1>isn't simply discussed, isn't simply ah, okay, I've categorized that

0:55:10.400 --> 0:55:13.120
<v Speaker 1>as false, but instead it's hey, I've categorized this as

0:55:13.120 --> 0:55:15.160
<v Speaker 1>something that's really a concern for me.

0:55:15.960 --> 0:55:16.200
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:55:16.239 --> 0:55:19.879
<v Speaker 2>Well, it's very easy to say. Again, this comes back

0:55:19.920 --> 0:55:23.560
<v Speaker 2>to the power of ideas, when you're thinking of just

0:55:23.960 --> 0:55:28.359
<v Speaker 2>how what is what could the effect be of a

0:55:28.400 --> 0:55:32.360
<v Speaker 2>single sentence? You know, in any language, the sky really

0:55:32.440 --> 0:55:34.160
<v Speaker 2>is the limit. If the front page of the New

0:55:34.239 --> 0:55:38.680
<v Speaker 2>York Times reads that nuclear war has started in thirty minutes,

0:55:38.680 --> 0:55:41.480
<v Speaker 2>it's going to get to you. Right, that's everything, right,

0:55:41.520 --> 0:55:45.400
<v Speaker 2>This is like, I mean, we're just decoding words in

0:55:45.440 --> 0:55:48.960
<v Speaker 2>this case on a website, and yet unless we can

0:55:49.000 --> 0:55:52.160
<v Speaker 2>figure out some reason not to grant them credence, right,

0:55:52.160 --> 0:55:53.720
<v Speaker 2>it's like, okay, wait a minute, this has been hacked,

0:55:54.360 --> 0:55:56.920
<v Speaker 2>is it? You know, is it April Fool's Day? There's

0:55:56.920 --> 0:55:58.960
<v Speaker 2>something wrong with my computers? Like this is really the

0:55:58.960 --> 0:56:01.439
<v Speaker 2>New York Times? Is that really the website? Now with AI,

0:56:01.600 --> 0:56:03.840
<v Speaker 2>were on the cusp of having to declare, you know,

0:56:03.960 --> 0:56:07.360
<v Speaker 2>epistemological bankruptcy with respect on the internet because any video

0:56:07.560 --> 0:56:11.000
<v Speaker 2>can now you know, virtually be faked. Right. So even

0:56:11.040 --> 0:56:13.040
<v Speaker 2>now if we saw, you know, a video of Vladimir

0:56:13.080 --> 0:56:15.880
<v Speaker 2>Putin saying I've just launched you know, our full arsenal

0:56:15.960 --> 0:56:18.480
<v Speaker 2>the evil Empire of the United States. It'll be there

0:56:18.480 --> 0:56:20.960
<v Speaker 2>in twenty four minutes. If we saw that and it

0:56:21.000 --> 0:56:24.680
<v Speaker 2>was translated perfect Russian, and you saw you know, Gary

0:56:24.760 --> 0:56:27.319
<v Speaker 2>Kasparov saying yeah, that's that's really Putin and that's really

0:56:27.360 --> 0:56:29.680
<v Speaker 2>Russian and that's really what he said, and it's now

0:56:29.680 --> 0:56:31.640
<v Speaker 2>on the New York Times website. Now you're thinking, wait

0:56:31.680 --> 0:56:34.640
<v Speaker 2>a minute, that does the New York Times have sufficient

0:56:34.840 --> 0:56:38.040
<v Speaker 2>technology to detect deep fakes? Do I really have to

0:56:38.080 --> 0:56:43.880
<v Speaker 2>believe this? But once you can't grab a handhold to

0:56:43.920 --> 0:56:51.520
<v Speaker 2>resist this slide into just helplessly imbibing the propositional import

0:56:51.600 --> 0:56:56.680
<v Speaker 2>of those words. Right World War three, you're emotionally and

0:56:56.719 --> 0:57:02.160
<v Speaker 2>behaviorally completely exposed to the implication of that claim.

0:57:02.280 --> 0:57:02.960
<v Speaker 3>Oh that's interesting.

0:57:03.040 --> 0:57:05.360
<v Speaker 1>You're exposed to it, or you've put up walls against

0:57:05.440 --> 0:57:06.040
<v Speaker 1>it as well.

0:57:06.640 --> 0:57:08.560
<v Speaker 2>The way to put up walls against it is to

0:57:08.600 --> 0:57:11.400
<v Speaker 2>find I mean that there are other If it's big enough,

0:57:12.200 --> 0:57:14.839
<v Speaker 2>you know, it becomes irresistible. But I mean you can

0:57:14.880 --> 0:57:18.360
<v Speaker 2>there are many ways to put up walls against beliefs

0:57:18.360 --> 0:57:20.240
<v Speaker 2>we don't like the taste of, right like, we can

0:57:20.280 --> 0:57:23.080
<v Speaker 2>ignore them, we can move on, we can distract ourselves.

0:57:23.480 --> 0:57:25.200
<v Speaker 2>You know, this is this is kind of the purview

0:57:25.280 --> 0:57:28.240
<v Speaker 2>of what we think about is self deception, right Like,

0:57:28.280 --> 0:57:29.960
<v Speaker 2>how is it? How did how did the guy not

0:57:30.120 --> 0:57:31.680
<v Speaker 2>know his wife was cheating on him? I mean there

0:57:31.680 --> 0:57:33.240
<v Speaker 2>were these signs and he sort of I mean he

0:57:33.320 --> 0:57:36.080
<v Speaker 2>must have seen that thing or heard that thing, or

0:57:36.400 --> 0:57:38.800
<v Speaker 2>if she did that and I saw that. So there's

0:57:38.840 --> 0:57:41.600
<v Speaker 2>all these you can you can say that there's this

0:57:41.680 --> 0:57:45.280
<v Speaker 2>sort of this this boundary even within within the precincts

0:57:45.280 --> 0:57:49.960
<v Speaker 2>of one mind, where you can we might say there's

0:57:50.000 --> 0:57:54.840
<v Speaker 2>a an avoidance of knowledge when the knowledge is really there.

0:57:54.880 --> 0:57:58.800
<v Speaker 2>But no if so if if the whole world kind

0:57:58.800 --> 0:58:02.960
<v Speaker 2>of sticks your face in a claim. Right again, it's

0:58:03.000 --> 0:58:05.520
<v Speaker 2>on the internet. The Internet's on fire with this thing

0:58:05.680 --> 0:58:10.200
<v Speaker 2>being news, and you have to figure out whether it's true. Again,

0:58:10.240 --> 0:58:14.400
<v Speaker 2>it's really just a matter of words or images that

0:58:14.440 --> 0:58:20.560
<v Speaker 2>purport to represent the world suddenly transforming your life. Right,

0:58:20.600 --> 0:58:22.040
<v Speaker 2>and this is all of a sudden, This is like

0:58:22.040 --> 0:58:24.840
<v Speaker 2>like literally a sentence could be spoken to both of

0:58:24.920 --> 0:58:30.840
<v Speaker 2>us that was so incontrovertible given the framing around it,

0:58:30.880 --> 0:58:33.320
<v Speaker 2>given the way we both know the world is given

0:58:33.800 --> 0:58:36.919
<v Speaker 2>how much would have to have been faked in order

0:58:36.960 --> 0:58:39.720
<v Speaker 2>for it to come that way to us from that source, right,

0:58:40.080 --> 0:58:43.040
<v Speaker 2>and this goes to the role of authority and gatekeeping

0:58:43.120 --> 0:58:47.040
<v Speaker 2>and right. So, but provided it comes you know, over

0:58:47.080 --> 0:58:50.360
<v Speaker 2>the transom at just the right angle, you know, the

0:58:51.200 --> 0:58:55.080
<v Speaker 2>distance between us in this moment, you're reasonably comfortable and

0:58:56.200 --> 0:58:58.640
<v Speaker 2>without much of a care in the world, and absolute

0:58:58.720 --> 0:59:02.280
<v Speaker 2>panic is just you know, it's not much longer than

0:59:02.280 --> 0:59:04.240
<v Speaker 2>it took to decode the sentence in the first place.

0:59:04.280 --> 0:59:07.640
<v Speaker 2>It's like, holy shit, right, I mean, it's rare that

0:59:07.640 --> 0:59:12.160
<v Speaker 2>that the stakes are that high and the testimony is that,

0:59:13.160 --> 0:59:16.840
<v Speaker 2>you know, unimpeachable and unequivocal and irresistible.

0:59:16.920 --> 0:59:17.080
<v Speaker 3>Right.

0:59:17.120 --> 0:59:20.320
<v Speaker 2>So it's where we're more often trading in the in

0:59:20.360 --> 0:59:23.520
<v Speaker 2>the land of well, it doesn't matter that much whether

0:59:23.520 --> 0:59:25.720
<v Speaker 2>it's true or false. You know, I'll take it on

0:59:25.920 --> 0:59:28.160
<v Speaker 2>or not. I can act as if it's true, but

0:59:28.200 --> 0:59:30.040
<v Speaker 2>if it turns out not to be true, and so

0:59:30.080 --> 0:59:34.000
<v Speaker 2>we're and and and we're we're dealing in probabilities where yeah,

0:59:34.040 --> 0:59:36.320
<v Speaker 2>we're willing to bet something in that direction, but we're

0:59:36.320 --> 0:59:37.840
<v Speaker 2>not willing to bet everything in that direction.

0:59:38.400 --> 0:59:41.640
<v Speaker 1>What I mean is when you see a piece of obvious,

0:59:41.760 --> 0:59:47.920
<v Speaker 1>blatant misinformation online, someone posts something stupid and and it

0:59:48.040 --> 0:59:52.800
<v Speaker 1>feels like what your mind does is simulate, Wait, if

0:59:52.880 --> 0:59:56.600
<v Speaker 1>everyone thought this, if this spreads, if this meme goes viral,

0:59:57.560 --> 1:00:01.480
<v Speaker 1>that's going to have consequences. Yeah, That's what I'm pointing to.

1:00:01.600 --> 1:00:04.800
<v Speaker 1>Is not necessarily like the nuclear war thing. But here's

1:00:04.840 --> 1:00:08.400
<v Speaker 1>an example. Right after the Bondie Beach massacre of Jewish

1:00:08.400 --> 1:00:12.480
<v Speaker 1>celebrating Hanukkah, somebody posted something saying, oh, it turns out

1:00:12.520 --> 1:00:15.640
<v Speaker 1>one of the shooters is Jewish, and they showed a

1:00:15.640 --> 1:00:20.560
<v Speaker 1>Facebook page of the guy wearing a yamica and all

1:00:20.640 --> 1:00:23.320
<v Speaker 1>his friends and his friends on there. It was such

1:00:23.320 --> 1:00:25.280
<v Speaker 1>an obvious AI fake when you zoom in on the

1:00:25.280 --> 1:00:27.680
<v Speaker 1>buttons and so on, the buttons didn't make sense and

1:00:27.680 --> 1:00:31.200
<v Speaker 1>so on. But I think the feeling that one might

1:00:31.320 --> 1:00:37.040
<v Speaker 1>have viewing that is, hey, that's a dangerous piece of misinformation.

1:00:37.800 --> 1:00:41.200
<v Speaker 1>Why because if it spread, if lots of people saw it,

1:00:41.480 --> 1:00:44.480
<v Speaker 1>blah blah blah. So what I mean is it's not

1:00:44.920 --> 1:00:47.920
<v Speaker 1>just the evaluation of, oh is this true or false,

1:00:48.600 --> 1:00:51.600
<v Speaker 1>it's the I'm just wondering if the discussed element in

1:00:51.640 --> 1:00:55.480
<v Speaker 1>real life might be the what are the future consequences

1:00:55.480 --> 1:00:56.520
<v Speaker 1>of that piece of mistass?

1:00:56.520 --> 1:00:59.160
<v Speaker 2>Oh yes, well yeah, I think that can That can

1:00:59.240 --> 1:01:03.800
<v Speaker 2>make the field of disgusted not only a neurophysiological analogy.

1:01:04.040 --> 1:01:06.080
<v Speaker 2>It really can make it quite salient. I mean, if

1:01:06.120 --> 1:01:11.040
<v Speaker 2>someone says something that you know to be false or

1:01:11.120 --> 1:01:13.200
<v Speaker 2>you have every reason to believe it's false, and not

1:01:13.240 --> 1:01:17.360
<v Speaker 2>only and it's and and if but if believed, it

1:01:17.400 --> 1:01:20.720
<v Speaker 2>will open the door to just manifest harms in the world.

1:01:21.240 --> 1:01:25.680
<v Speaker 2>And it's just it's it's an ugly divisive idea that

1:01:25.720 --> 1:01:29.880
<v Speaker 2>you believe was maliciously concocted so as to produce those harms, right,

1:01:29.920 --> 1:01:33.040
<v Speaker 2>So like it's not all these all this negative uh,

1:01:33.200 --> 1:01:36.320
<v Speaker 2>negativity stacked on top of it. Yeah, I mean, I

1:01:36.360 --> 1:01:38.640
<v Speaker 2>you know, I feel discussed all the time, and consciously

1:01:38.680 --> 1:01:41.800
<v Speaker 2>feel discussed all the time at what people pretend to believe,

1:01:42.040 --> 1:01:44.080
<v Speaker 2>you know, or what some people actually wind up being

1:01:44.120 --> 1:01:46.520
<v Speaker 2>taken in by and actually believe. And the consequences in

1:01:46.520 --> 1:01:48.680
<v Speaker 2>the world are obvious. I mean, I mean, in fact,

1:01:48.680 --> 1:01:51.320
<v Speaker 2>if you once you put this kind of lens on

1:01:52.280 --> 1:01:57.800
<v Speaker 2>to your your view of more or less everything, Uh, people,

1:01:57.880 --> 1:02:01.800
<v Speaker 2>do you just see that all of the world's mayhem

1:02:02.520 --> 1:02:07.000
<v Speaker 2>is a story of kind of failures, I mean, apart

1:02:07.040 --> 1:02:11.440
<v Speaker 2>from the things that are visited upon us from nature,

1:02:12.200 --> 1:02:14.080
<v Speaker 2>just like bad luck, you know, just like you know,

1:02:14.120 --> 1:02:18.280
<v Speaker 2>an asteroid impact or or a virus you know, jump

1:02:18.360 --> 1:02:21.840
<v Speaker 2>species and now you know we're suffering its consequences. Everything

1:02:21.840 --> 1:02:27.160
<v Speaker 2>else is a self inflicted wound based on bad ideas,

1:02:27.680 --> 1:02:33.880
<v Speaker 2>you know, just just rank tribalism and conspiracy thinking and lies,

1:02:33.960 --> 1:02:36.800
<v Speaker 2>I mean conscious lies meant to divide people and to

1:02:37.280 --> 1:02:41.960
<v Speaker 2>motivate them to produce harm. And it's it's all a

1:02:42.000 --> 1:02:46.480
<v Speaker 2>matter of kind of this belief making and belief grasping

1:02:46.720 --> 1:02:52.000
<v Speaker 2>machinery of our minds that is just ceaselessly doing its work.

1:02:52.200 --> 1:02:54.720
<v Speaker 1>It makes me wonder why changing our minds is so

1:02:55.280 --> 1:02:59.920
<v Speaker 1>difficult when it comes to a scientific proposition. It seems

1:02:59.920 --> 1:03:03.200
<v Speaker 1>to be easier, maybe because often those are like chess

1:03:03.240 --> 1:03:06.320
<v Speaker 1>moves in the sense that they're cognitive. There's not a

1:03:06.360 --> 1:03:08.680
<v Speaker 1>lot of emotional weight with it. But like the example

1:03:08.720 --> 1:03:12.280
<v Speaker 1>you gave of the older professor who's emotionally so weighted

1:03:12.320 --> 1:03:15.560
<v Speaker 1>down by what he's come up with, sometimes it's very

1:03:15.560 --> 1:03:18.680
<v Speaker 1>hard to change our minds about things. What's your take

1:03:18.760 --> 1:03:22.960
<v Speaker 1>about the challenges and any hopes about people changing their

1:03:23.000 --> 1:03:23.760
<v Speaker 1>minds on things.

1:03:23.960 --> 1:03:26.440
<v Speaker 2>Well, I think you need one needs to internaliz. I

1:03:26.520 --> 1:03:28.320
<v Speaker 2>mean we do this in science, but I think this

1:03:28.600 --> 1:03:30.760
<v Speaker 2>just should be exported to the rest of culture. I

1:03:30.800 --> 1:03:37.280
<v Speaker 2>think we all have an ethical obligation to internalize a

1:03:37.400 --> 1:03:42.560
<v Speaker 2>value that is deeper than any place where our kind

1:03:42.600 --> 1:03:45.080
<v Speaker 2>of wishful thinking or the way that our preference is

1:03:45.080 --> 1:03:47.000
<v Speaker 2>for the way the world is could be anchored right,

1:03:47.000 --> 1:03:50.560
<v Speaker 2>And the deeper value is we actually want to know

1:03:50.600 --> 1:03:53.160
<v Speaker 2>what's real. Right, We would like like we have a

1:03:53.200 --> 1:03:58.800
<v Speaker 2>reality bias. And it's not to say that that you

1:03:58.840 --> 1:04:02.400
<v Speaker 2>can't find these sort of low instances where a person's

1:04:02.400 --> 1:04:04.920
<v Speaker 2>interest might be better served by not really being in

1:04:04.960 --> 1:04:08.040
<v Speaker 2>touch with reality, like some some scope for delusion, you know,

1:04:08.080 --> 1:04:11.000
<v Speaker 2>self serving delusion might you know, we can certainly concoct

1:04:11.000 --> 1:04:14.120
<v Speaker 2>those examples where like the person would have if he

1:04:14.160 --> 1:04:16.480
<v Speaker 2>if he knew what the people in the room really

1:04:16.480 --> 1:04:18.480
<v Speaker 2>thought of him, well then he wouldn't perform nearly as

1:04:18.480 --> 1:04:20.240
<v Speaker 2>well as he did when he thought he was popular

1:04:20.320 --> 1:04:22.600
<v Speaker 2>or you know, thought he was handsome, or what everything was.

1:04:22.680 --> 1:04:27.480
<v Speaker 2>But generally speaking, we shouldn't want to be deceived or

1:04:27.520 --> 1:04:34.200
<v Speaker 2>self deceived or psychotic or and and trading in these

1:04:34.240 --> 1:04:39.240
<v Speaker 2>hallucinations and having and watching our culture get bent every

1:04:39.280 --> 1:04:43.560
<v Speaker 2>whish way by these kind of mass adoptions of delusion.

1:04:43.680 --> 1:04:47.640
<v Speaker 2>You know, there's moral panics and paranoia and lives and

1:04:47.680 --> 1:04:49.280
<v Speaker 2>half truths that become operative.

1:04:49.560 --> 1:04:49.720
<v Speaker 3>You know.

1:04:49.880 --> 1:04:53.280
<v Speaker 2>Again, politics is so much the story of this. But

1:04:53.360 --> 1:04:57.120
<v Speaker 2>it's you know, I would say it it embraces you know,

1:04:57.120 --> 1:04:59.080
<v Speaker 2>almost everything we do. He's just I mean, it's not

1:04:59.160 --> 1:05:01.280
<v Speaker 2>it's not that understand in the world is everything. It's

1:05:01.320 --> 1:05:05.520
<v Speaker 2>not that being rational is everything, but it is this,

1:05:05.880 --> 1:05:10.120
<v Speaker 2>it is the thing that can safeguard everything else that

1:05:10.160 --> 1:05:13.080
<v Speaker 2>we care about. R I mean, I view your reason as,

1:05:14.120 --> 1:05:17.040
<v Speaker 2>among other things, the guardian of love, right like like

1:05:17.040 --> 1:05:19.360
<v Speaker 2>like there's there's other things you can love, like the

1:05:19.520 --> 1:05:22.080
<v Speaker 2>other experiences you can have that are not a matter

1:05:22.160 --> 1:05:27.600
<v Speaker 2>of just rigorously understanding what is so right, but rigorously

1:05:27.680 --> 1:05:30.400
<v Speaker 2>understanding what is so is the thing that get that

1:05:30.400 --> 1:05:34.040
<v Speaker 2>that that that stands at the gate to protect all

1:05:34.080 --> 1:05:36.200
<v Speaker 2>those other moments where you just want to you know,

1:05:37.000 --> 1:05:39.640
<v Speaker 2>hug your lover or you know you're your best friend,

1:05:39.720 --> 1:05:43.840
<v Speaker 2>or play frisbee, or appreciate art or just watch a movie. Well,

1:05:44.960 --> 1:05:47.600
<v Speaker 2>when it comes time to figure out what's actually happening

1:05:47.600 --> 1:05:50.800
<v Speaker 2>in the world, when there's a pandemic raging, or when

1:05:51.520 --> 1:05:54.040
<v Speaker 2>you know people are flying airplanes into our buildings or

1:05:54.360 --> 1:05:58.560
<v Speaker 2>or whatever the whatever it is, we should have a

1:05:58.720 --> 1:06:01.600
<v Speaker 2>very deep bias for the truth.

1:06:02.080 --> 1:06:04.160
<v Speaker 1>How would you teach that to high schoolers? What would

1:06:04.160 --> 1:06:04.880
<v Speaker 1>you tell them?

1:06:05.200 --> 1:06:10.360
<v Speaker 2>Well, one, you want to remove the stigma around honestly

1:06:10.400 --> 1:06:12.880
<v Speaker 2>confessing that you don't know what's true, right, So saying

1:06:12.920 --> 1:06:16.880
<v Speaker 2>I don't know should they should have absolutely no discomfort

1:06:17.040 --> 1:06:20.360
<v Speaker 2>attached to it. In fact, failing to say that you

1:06:20.400 --> 1:06:23.240
<v Speaker 2>don't know when you clearly don't know. Should should That's

1:06:23.280 --> 1:06:25.400
<v Speaker 2>where the stigma should be, right, So to pretend to

1:06:25.440 --> 1:06:28.400
<v Speaker 2>know something you don't know is where I mean that

1:06:28.400 --> 1:06:33.120
<v Speaker 2>that should be you know, scored as kind of unseemly

1:06:33.240 --> 1:06:35.400
<v Speaker 2>and then people should get the social feedback around that.

1:06:35.480 --> 1:06:38.760
<v Speaker 2>So whenever you were caught bullshitting, right, that's the thing

1:06:38.840 --> 1:06:41.320
<v Speaker 2>that should be embarrassing, not when the teacher asked you

1:06:41.880 --> 1:06:44.840
<v Speaker 2>the question and you just didn't know, right, or And

1:06:45.160 --> 1:06:48.880
<v Speaker 2>people should never be afraid to ask what seems like

1:06:48.920 --> 1:06:51.520
<v Speaker 2>a stupid question, like even in a scientific context. I mean,

1:06:51.960 --> 1:06:54.360
<v Speaker 2>you know, there are great accounts of, you know, the

1:06:54.360 --> 1:06:57.640
<v Speaker 2>behavior of some of the most eminent scientists you can

1:06:57.680 --> 1:07:01.840
<v Speaker 2>think of where one of the things that made their

1:07:02.920 --> 1:07:10.360
<v Speaker 2>company so EDIFYE and it actually kind of discombobulating for

1:07:10.680 --> 1:07:13.880
<v Speaker 2>you know, lesser scientists is that they would ask a

1:07:13.920 --> 1:07:17.120
<v Speaker 2>lot of dumb questions, you know, apparently dumb questions which

1:07:17.120 --> 1:07:20.000
<v Speaker 2>if if if a novice was that would ask that question,

1:07:20.040 --> 1:07:23.360
<v Speaker 2>they might actually see there might be some kind of

1:07:23.400 --> 1:07:26.360
<v Speaker 2>social embarrassment around around that's kind of a dumb that's

1:07:26.360 --> 1:07:28.640
<v Speaker 2>really an elementary question. But when you know, Richard Fyneman

1:07:28.760 --> 1:07:31.800
<v Speaker 2>is asking you that dumb question. You know, you know

1:07:31.880 --> 1:07:34.200
<v Speaker 2>you're in the company of Richard Feynman, right, you know

1:07:34.360 --> 1:07:36.760
<v Speaker 2>he knows physics at least as well as you know physics.

1:07:37.360 --> 1:07:42.040
<v Speaker 2>And he's asking that question. He's actually now putting pressure

1:07:42.160 --> 1:07:46.360
<v Speaker 2>on what is kind of a load bearing wall and

1:07:46.400 --> 1:07:49.040
<v Speaker 2>may in fact be a load bearing fiction of the

1:07:49.080 --> 1:07:53.360
<v Speaker 2>whole enterprise. Right, And so you should be not at

1:07:53.360 --> 1:07:58.360
<v Speaker 2>all afraid to ask dumb questions. And there should be

1:07:58.360 --> 1:08:01.480
<v Speaker 2>this kind of master value where you want to calibrate

1:08:01.720 --> 1:08:06.960
<v Speaker 2>your conviction rather finally with the weight of the evidence

1:08:07.040 --> 1:08:09.320
<v Speaker 2>and the and the and the solidity of the argument. Right,

1:08:09.200 --> 1:08:11.600
<v Speaker 2>like like you you want to you don't want to

1:08:11.600 --> 1:08:15.800
<v Speaker 2>be at eleven with your certainty when there's actually nothing

1:08:15.840 --> 1:08:20.360
<v Speaker 2>to stand on. And you also should not want to

1:08:20.360 --> 1:08:22.519
<v Speaker 2>be wrong for a moment longer than you.

1:08:22.479 --> 1:08:23.280
<v Speaker 3>Have to be right.

1:08:23.320 --> 1:08:24.960
<v Speaker 2>So like so like if you I mean this is

1:08:25.479 --> 1:08:27.240
<v Speaker 2>this is the spirit in which I would have any

1:08:28.280 --> 1:08:30.040
<v Speaker 2>debate on any topic. I mean, I have you know,

1:08:30.960 --> 1:08:34.040
<v Speaker 2>I tend to know what I think when I'm certainly

1:08:34.040 --> 1:08:36.360
<v Speaker 2>on a topic with where I'm in any kind of

1:08:36.360 --> 1:08:40.520
<v Speaker 2>debate mode with somebody. But if someone makes a point

1:08:40.680 --> 1:08:44.760
<v Speaker 2>where I see their right and I was wrong, like

1:08:45.240 --> 1:08:48.000
<v Speaker 2>my my kind of master my master value in that

1:08:48.080 --> 1:08:52.080
<v Speaker 2>moment is not to defend myself, you know, just to

1:08:52.080 --> 1:08:54.960
<v Speaker 2>put a brave face on my on my error and

1:08:55.040 --> 1:08:57.080
<v Speaker 2>try to, you know, just kind of beat back the

1:08:57.120 --> 1:09:00.720
<v Speaker 2>truth that they just articulated, because I mean, there's for

1:09:00.760 --> 1:09:02.559
<v Speaker 2>two reasons for this. One is if the place I'm

1:09:02.600 --> 1:09:07.360
<v Speaker 2>standing actually has no support and the person who's criticizing

1:09:07.400 --> 1:09:09.640
<v Speaker 2>me can see it, and they pointed out, and the

1:09:09.680 --> 1:09:12.240
<v Speaker 2>audience is likely to see it. If they can't see

1:09:12.240 --> 1:09:14.479
<v Speaker 2>it in the first second, they're likely to see it

1:09:14.560 --> 1:09:17.200
<v Speaker 2>like thirty seconds from now. What I really want to

1:09:17.200 --> 1:09:20.360
<v Speaker 2>do is no longer to be standing there, both as

1:09:20.360 --> 1:09:24.840
<v Speaker 2>a matter of like, you know, like just intellectual integrity,

1:09:24.880 --> 1:09:28.160
<v Speaker 2>but also just as a matter of like not losing

1:09:28.400 --> 1:09:30.680
<v Speaker 2>you know, egregiously, if I in so far as I

1:09:30.720 --> 1:09:33.040
<v Speaker 2>care about the way I'm being perceived by the audience.

1:09:33.080 --> 1:09:37.080
<v Speaker 2>So the master move there would be to actually let

1:09:37.080 --> 1:09:40.040
<v Speaker 2>the person educate you on that point right now. Hopefully

1:09:40.080 --> 1:09:43.000
<v Speaker 2>it's not a point that is so central to to

1:09:44.200 --> 1:09:46.160
<v Speaker 2>you know, that the topic you were debating such that

1:09:46.240 --> 1:09:48.680
<v Speaker 2>you now have just admit you're completely wrong and you've

1:09:48.760 --> 1:09:51.559
<v Speaker 2>changed your mind. But in fact that were the case,

1:09:52.280 --> 1:09:54.120
<v Speaker 2>that's what I would want to do. I mean that again,

1:09:54.160 --> 1:09:56.240
<v Speaker 2>that's the thing. I go back to the scientist who

1:09:56.600 --> 1:09:59.880
<v Speaker 2>might have spent his entire career banging away on some

1:10:00.640 --> 1:10:05.400
<v Speaker 2>doomed theory. The moment has really proven wrong, right the moment.

1:10:05.960 --> 1:10:08.880
<v Speaker 2>I mean again, this is these are situations that are

1:10:08.880 --> 1:10:12.200
<v Speaker 2>few and far between, but it does happen. The pivot

1:10:12.240 --> 1:10:14.960
<v Speaker 2>you want to be capable of making is just to

1:10:15.040 --> 1:10:19.040
<v Speaker 2>be grateful to now know what's real, right like that. I mean,

1:10:19.040 --> 1:10:21.799
<v Speaker 2>that's where the reality bought. But we should be hungry

1:10:22.720 --> 1:10:28.439
<v Speaker 2>to wake up from the dream of misapprehension. This is

1:10:28.479 --> 1:10:31.600
<v Speaker 2>a hallucination that this is a spell we have to

1:10:31.680 --> 1:10:34.000
<v Speaker 2>keep breaking. We just we come into this world not

1:10:34.160 --> 1:10:38.000
<v Speaker 2>knowing what is going on, and our entanglement with it

1:10:38.040 --> 1:10:42.040
<v Speaker 2>and with others and with culture and with increasingly sophisticated

1:10:42.080 --> 1:10:47.640
<v Speaker 2>ways of knowing is is continually trimming down this, this

1:10:48.040 --> 1:10:52.479
<v Speaker 2>misunderstanding and aligning us with something Again we're not We

1:10:52.600 --> 1:10:56.280
<v Speaker 2>never get some final account where we can step outside

1:10:56.280 --> 1:10:59.080
<v Speaker 2>of our view of reality so as to look back

1:10:59.120 --> 1:11:00.840
<v Speaker 2>at it and say, oh, yeah, this is where you

1:11:01.000 --> 1:11:04.120
<v Speaker 2>This is exactly how the map fit the territory. We're

1:11:04.160 --> 1:11:07.120
<v Speaker 2>always just kind of living the map. But when we

1:11:07.320 --> 1:11:11.000
<v Speaker 2>when we you know, bump into a hard object, you know,

1:11:11.120 --> 1:11:13.439
<v Speaker 2>in the darkness, we should know, we don't want to

1:11:13.439 --> 1:11:15.280
<v Speaker 2>do that again. But it is, it comes down to

1:11:15.360 --> 1:11:21.519
<v Speaker 2>a very clear sense of what intellectual integrity is. And

1:11:21.600 --> 1:11:24.160
<v Speaker 2>we don't teach that very well. We teach it well

1:11:24.320 --> 1:11:28.360
<v Speaker 2>in science and in you know, kind of rigorous areas

1:11:28.080 --> 1:11:32.120
<v Speaker 2>of academia, like you know, philosophy, and in other areas

1:11:32.880 --> 1:11:35.439
<v Speaker 2>we seem to teach the antithesis. I mean, I mean,

1:11:35.960 --> 1:11:38.760
<v Speaker 2>one of the worst things that's happened of late, and

1:11:38.800 --> 1:11:41.759
<v Speaker 2>it's it has been a source of great cultural division,

1:11:42.120 --> 1:11:45.439
<v Speaker 2>is that so much of what purports to be knowledge

1:11:45.640 --> 1:11:49.720
<v Speaker 2>gathering in the Ivory Tower has become just rankly politicized,

1:11:49.800 --> 1:11:52.920
<v Speaker 2>such that you have whole disciplines which are have just

1:11:52.960 --> 1:11:54.520
<v Speaker 2>been vitiated by politics.

1:11:54.600 --> 1:11:56.360
<v Speaker 3>Right. So this it's a culture, a culture.

1:11:56.120 --> 1:12:00.479
<v Speaker 2>Of activism that is masquerading as a culture of of

1:12:00.880 --> 1:12:05.360
<v Speaker 2>knowledge acquisition, and it's completely upside down. And you know, therefore,

1:12:05.520 --> 1:12:09.599
<v Speaker 2>and it's been it's you know, the the revolt against

1:12:09.600 --> 1:12:13.519
<v Speaker 2>the elites is all too understandable in light of this,

1:12:13.760 --> 1:12:15.799
<v Speaker 2>and it's I mean, we're going to take a generation

1:12:15.920 --> 1:12:17.320
<v Speaker 2>to recover I think from.

1:12:17.240 --> 1:12:18.080
<v Speaker 3>It, I agreed.

1:12:18.560 --> 1:12:20.080
<v Speaker 1>I will say, by the way, it is a total

1:12:20.120 --> 1:12:22.759
<v Speaker 1>side note, I'm very hopeful about the role of AI

1:12:23.720 --> 1:12:27.880
<v Speaker 1>helping with this problem. Here's why we can set up

1:12:27.960 --> 1:12:31.800
<v Speaker 1>a debate bot so that each student debates the bought

1:12:32.000 --> 1:12:35.280
<v Speaker 1>some hot button issue. They go, they get graded on

1:12:35.360 --> 1:12:40.040
<v Speaker 1>the quality of their arguments, and then they switch sides

1:12:40.080 --> 1:12:42.240
<v Speaker 1>and they argue the other side. Why because the AI

1:12:42.400 --> 1:12:47.240
<v Speaker 1>is great at doing this. It's calm, it's patient, It's

1:12:47.439 --> 1:12:50.000
<v Speaker 1>able to do that with every student for as long

1:12:50.040 --> 1:12:52.640
<v Speaker 1>as it wants, whereas no teacher could ever have that

1:12:52.760 --> 1:12:55.200
<v Speaker 1>kind of time or patience. So I think this is

1:12:55.520 --> 1:12:58.160
<v Speaker 1>going to be really helpful in terms of teaching students

1:12:58.240 --> 1:13:01.479
<v Speaker 1>this three sixty view. Is there anything you've changed your

1:13:01.800 --> 1:13:04.040
<v Speaker 1>belief about in the last decade or two?

1:13:04.520 --> 1:13:08.360
<v Speaker 2>This is previously actually this part of the AI conversation.

1:13:10.080 --> 1:13:14.080
<v Speaker 2>So I've been very worried about AI and the fundamental

1:13:14.160 --> 1:13:16.680
<v Speaker 2>question of the alignment problem. I just what it's going

1:13:16.720 --> 1:13:19.880
<v Speaker 2>to look like to build you know, truly superhuman general

1:13:19.880 --> 1:13:23.439
<v Speaker 2>intelligence and kind of the ways in which we might

1:13:23.479 --> 1:13:28.200
<v Speaker 2>do that wrong, you know, and effectively you know, ruin everything,

1:13:28.200 --> 1:13:30.560
<v Speaker 2>because suddenly we have we have created a technology that

1:13:30.680 --> 1:13:32.800
<v Speaker 2>is more powerful than we are, an autonomous and not

1:13:32.880 --> 1:13:35.480
<v Speaker 2>aligned with our well being, and we're kind of negotiating

1:13:35.520 --> 1:13:38.080
<v Speaker 2>with it now, and it becomes this doomed chess game,

1:13:38.240 --> 1:13:40.960
<v Speaker 2>Like it's like, you're not going to play chess harder

1:13:41.080 --> 1:13:43.640
<v Speaker 2>so as to to realign the chess engine. Then now

1:13:43.920 --> 1:13:45.559
<v Speaker 2>is now just beating you at chess, and you're not

1:13:45.560 --> 1:13:48.400
<v Speaker 2>going to negotiate with a super intelligent AI that's not

1:13:49.080 --> 1:13:54.400
<v Speaker 2>disposed to take your advice hereafter. So, so I'm worried

1:13:54.439 --> 1:13:56.920
<v Speaker 2>about AI. And I did think at least five ten

1:13:57.000 --> 1:14:00.040
<v Speaker 2>years ago that autonomous weapons would be something that we

1:14:00.080 --> 1:14:03.040
<v Speaker 2>wouldn't want to do. That just seems like a very

1:14:03.080 --> 1:14:04.800
<v Speaker 2>dangerous thing, And so I think I even signed an

1:14:04.840 --> 1:14:08.320
<v Speaker 2>open letter that we shouldn't have autonomous weapons. I think,

1:14:08.360 --> 1:14:12.040
<v Speaker 2>my again, this is not really a happy epiphany, But

1:14:12.240 --> 1:14:17.360
<v Speaker 2>I do think that leaving the alignment concern aside, given

1:14:17.400 --> 1:14:21.560
<v Speaker 2>the arms race with China clearly and other potential adversaries

1:14:21.600 --> 1:14:23.920
<v Speaker 2>around AI, I feel like we just need to win

1:14:24.000 --> 1:14:27.720
<v Speaker 2>that arms race. So i'm, you know, until I hear

1:14:27.720 --> 1:14:30.840
<v Speaker 2>a better argument. Now, I'm in favor of all the

1:14:30.840 --> 1:14:33.520
<v Speaker 2>ways in which AI can be adopted by the military.

1:14:33.960 --> 1:14:38.000
<v Speaker 2>Autonomous weapons included. I just think the failure mode of

1:14:38.280 --> 1:14:41.760
<v Speaker 2>declining to do that work and waiting for China to

1:14:41.800 --> 1:14:45.599
<v Speaker 2>do it is so obvious and excruciating that I'm willing

1:14:45.680 --> 1:14:50.760
<v Speaker 2>to roll the dice on let's get there first. The

1:14:50.760 --> 1:14:52.280
<v Speaker 2>first time I heard about it, I was sort of

1:14:52.320 --> 1:14:54.800
<v Speaker 2>like the gun control guy, like I don't want anything

1:14:54.840 --> 1:14:56.679
<v Speaker 2>to do with guns, and they're just dangerous and awful.

1:14:57.800 --> 1:15:00.800
<v Speaker 2>And then I sort of just flipped to none, no, no,

1:15:00.840 --> 1:15:02.559
<v Speaker 2>we need as many guns as possible, and we need

1:15:02.600 --> 1:15:07.840
<v Speaker 2>them fast. But again, I've obviously opened to argument on that,

1:15:07.880 --> 1:15:09.559
<v Speaker 2>but that's that was a very clear change of heart.

1:15:10.360 --> 1:15:12.439
<v Speaker 1>This comes back to the central theme that we've been

1:15:12.479 --> 1:15:16.160
<v Speaker 1>discussing about how beliefs you know, in the laboratory, the

1:15:16.200 --> 1:15:18.639
<v Speaker 1>way one has to study it is with simple beliefs.

1:15:18.680 --> 1:15:21.280
<v Speaker 1>In the year, they're true or they're false, But in

1:15:21.320 --> 1:15:25.479
<v Speaker 1>real life they're tied to everything else, including our views

1:15:25.520 --> 1:15:29.080
<v Speaker 1>of larger and larger geopolitical issues, such that you might

1:15:29.200 --> 1:15:32.719
<v Speaker 1>have a flip of a belief predicated on these other

1:15:33.360 --> 1:15:36.640
<v Speaker 1>larger issues about where you think the world is going politically. So,

1:15:36.840 --> 1:15:40.479
<v Speaker 1>given this other constellation of beliefs that people have that

1:15:40.600 --> 1:15:45.120
<v Speaker 1>navigate their particular beliefs about politics or abortion or gun

1:15:45.200 --> 1:15:51.000
<v Speaker 1>control or whatever. Is healthy disagreement something that you see

1:15:51.200 --> 1:15:55.040
<v Speaker 1>as possible, and if so, in what ways would you

1:15:55.080 --> 1:15:55.759
<v Speaker 1>like to see that happen?

1:15:56.240 --> 1:15:58.680
<v Speaker 2>Well, I think we we live in the zone of

1:15:58.800 --> 1:16:02.480
<v Speaker 2>healthy disagreement all the time, and we're constantly disagreeing with

1:16:02.479 --> 1:16:04.200
<v Speaker 2>with people we love about things.

1:16:04.400 --> 1:16:05.479
<v Speaker 3>The question is how much.

1:16:05.360 --> 1:16:07.479
<v Speaker 2>Does it matter? And when it matters, it's like when

1:16:07.479 --> 1:16:11.080
<v Speaker 2>you raise the stakes, then you begin to get uncomfortable

1:16:11.320 --> 1:16:14.559
<v Speaker 2>and you feel like you have to converge. I mean,

1:16:14.560 --> 1:16:18.679
<v Speaker 2>it just became it becomes behaviorally and emotionally imperative to converge,

1:16:19.120 --> 1:16:20.880
<v Speaker 2>certainly when lives depend on it. Well, then all of

1:16:20.920 --> 1:16:22.560
<v Speaker 2>a sudden, then it's like it's a kind of a

1:16:23.320 --> 1:16:26.439
<v Speaker 2>moral emergency to get get your facts straight, get you know,

1:16:26.560 --> 1:16:29.360
<v Speaker 2>you know, you get some of the best argument and win.

1:16:29.960 --> 1:16:32.840
<v Speaker 2>So it really just it comes down to what the

1:16:32.880 --> 1:16:37.360
<v Speaker 2>stakes are and whether we're in a zone that's anything

1:16:37.520 --> 1:16:42.360
<v Speaker 2>like that which is indicated by the common phrase, or

1:16:42.400 --> 1:16:46.719
<v Speaker 2>we're just gonna have to agree to disagree, right, Like, well, yeah,

1:16:46.720 --> 1:16:49.479
<v Speaker 2>that's we over here. We can we can do that

1:16:49.560 --> 1:16:51.920
<v Speaker 2>and still be friends and this is perfect, right, there's

1:16:51.960 --> 1:16:54.160
<v Speaker 2>no problem like that's kind of the spice of life

1:16:54.200 --> 1:16:59.400
<v Speaker 2>to agree to disagree about that. But over here like

1:16:59.520 --> 1:17:03.439
<v Speaker 2>we can't take another step until we figure out who's right.

1:17:07.920 --> 1:17:10.920
<v Speaker 1>That was my interview with Sam Harris. Sam's research here

1:17:11.000 --> 1:17:14.200
<v Speaker 1>shows that even at the most basic level, the brain

1:17:14.280 --> 1:17:19.360
<v Speaker 1>distinguishes between accepting or rejecting a claim or remaining uncertain

1:17:19.400 --> 1:17:23.479
<v Speaker 1>about that claim, and that distinction the brain makes that

1:17:23.560 --> 1:17:27.560
<v Speaker 1>then roots what you do in terms of feeling and behavior.

1:17:27.800 --> 1:17:30.800
<v Speaker 1>Some things you act on right away because you believe

1:17:30.840 --> 1:17:33.720
<v Speaker 1>they're true, and other things you dismiss and they don't

1:17:33.760 --> 1:17:37.760
<v Speaker 1>move any further through your neural system. So your brain's

1:17:37.920 --> 1:17:43.040
<v Speaker 1>assessment about the truth or falsity of something determines everything

1:17:43.080 --> 1:17:47.679
<v Speaker 1>about what happens next. As Sam also mentioned, beliefs differ

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of how tightly they bind to identity. Some

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<v Speaker 1>beliefs are pretty easy to revise when new evidence appears,

1:17:56.080 --> 1:18:00.679
<v Speaker 1>like here's data about how you could make nuclear react safe.

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<v Speaker 1>But other beliefs are anchored to social belonging or moral

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<v Speaker 1>commitments you have, or longstanding narratives about who you are

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<v Speaker 1>and how the world operates. In those cases, changing a

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<v Speaker 1>belief can feel like changing sides or stepping away from

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<v Speaker 1>a community or giving something up that wants provided stability.

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<v Speaker 1>What emerges is a picture of belief as a kind

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<v Speaker 1>of navigation system. It helps us decide what to act

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<v Speaker 1>on and who to trust, and what to fear, and

1:18:34.240 --> 1:18:38.479
<v Speaker 1>what futures to prepare for. And belief is shaped by

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<v Speaker 1>evidence and facts, yes, but also by incentives and emotions

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<v Speaker 1>and social environments we inhabit. Zooming out this brain research

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<v Speaker 1>has consequences far beyond individual brains, because the same mechanisms

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<v Speaker 1>that allow us to cooperate and reason and build shared

1:18:58.600 --> 1:19:02.720
<v Speaker 1>models of the world can and also amplify division and

1:19:03.120 --> 1:19:10.120
<v Speaker 1>harden identities and spread ideas whose consequences outpace their accuracy.

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<v Speaker 1>In an age where language and images and claims are

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<v Speaker 1>moving faster than ever, understanding how belief forms and how

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<v Speaker 1>it hardens is becoming something of a civic duty. If

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<v Speaker 1>belief is the gateway between information and action, then learning

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<v Speaker 1>how that gateway works is one of the most important

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<v Speaker 1>challenges of our time. Will presumably never all agree on

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<v Speaker 1>our beliefs, but a deeper understanding of this, I hope,

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<v Speaker 1>can allow disagreement to remain tethered to reality and proportion

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<v Speaker 1>and humility go to eagleman dot com slash podcast. For

1:19:59.280 --> 1:20:03.599
<v Speaker 1>more information and to find further reading, join the weekly

1:20:03.640 --> 1:20:07.080
<v Speaker 1>discussions on my substack, and check out and subscribe to

1:20:07.120 --> 1:20:10.360
<v Speaker 1>Inner Cosmos on YouTube for videos of each episode and

1:20:10.400 --> 1:20:16.080
<v Speaker 1>to leave comments. Until next time, I'm David Eagleman and

1:20:16.120 --> 1:20:17.720
<v Speaker 1>this is Inner Cosmos