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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Thursday edition of Bloomberg Sound on Little Friday.
Speaker 2: We're glad you're with us here as America recovers from
Speaker 2: the final Republican debate and for that matter, Trump town
Speaker 2: hall before we get to Iowa. And we were watching,
Speaker 2: of course, so you didn't have to. And we'll be
Speaker 2: walking through some of the highlights and low lights over
Speaker 2: the course of the hour. Here. The only thing hot,
Speaker 2: it seems in Iowa or New Hampshire right now are
Speaker 2: the microphones. Just ask Chris Christie. You heard this as
Speaker 2: he prepared to make the big announcement that he was
Speaker 2: dropping out of the race, not to be a spoiler.
Speaker 2: He was being honest on a mic wired up behind
Speaker 2: the scenes before he came out the podium. A lot
Speaker 2: of folks seem to have read this. Few seem to
Speaker 2: have heard it. Have you heard what Chris Christie said
Speaker 2: about Nikki Haley? Remember the whole idea was here, He's
Speaker 2: got double digits in New Hampshire. He drops out those
Speaker 2: voters sixty five percent of them according to the CNN
Speaker 2: UNH survey. May just jump on board Nikki Haley and
Speaker 2: then we've got momentum in a real race. Except he
Speaker 2: doesn't actually believe that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, she spent sixty eight million so
Speaker 3: far just on TV. Spent sixty eight million so far,
Speaker 3: fifty nine million by Desantus and we spent twelve. I mean,
Speaker 3: who's punching above their weight and who's getting a return
Speaker 3: on their investment?
Speaker 4: You know, And she's going to get smoked.
Speaker 3: And you and I both know it. She's not up
Speaker 3: to this.
Speaker 2: She's going to get smoked. You and I both know it.
Speaker 2: She's not up to this. Did it matter what he said?
Speaker 2: After that? That's where we start our conversation with Andrews. Smith.
Speaker 2: I've been looking forward to this, and if you're a
Speaker 2: listener of this broadcast, you've heard mister Smith before. He
Speaker 2: is the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey
Speaker 2: Center and knows the landscape in New Hampshire as well
Speaker 2: as anyone. As I mentioned the CNN UNH poll that
Speaker 2: came out earlier this week made a lot of waves Andrew,
Speaker 2: it's great to see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2: I wonder what the thought was? Great to have you
Speaker 2: the thought in New Hampshire. As Chris Christie, apparently a
Speaker 2: darling of New Hampshire, decided to drop out of the race,
Speaker 2: did he cancel out his message with the off mike moment?
Speaker 5: No, I don't think so. I think it is a
Speaker 5: one day story. It's important to remember that Chris Christie
Speaker 5: is not beloved about New Hampshire Republicans. In fact, since
Speaker 5: we've been measuring favorability ratings and some other numbers, he
Speaker 5: has by far the lowest favorability rating of any of
Speaker 5: the Republicans running in the New Hampshire primary, including h
Speaker 5: Aatha Hutchinson. And we see that sixty percent of likely
Speaker 5: Republican primary voters have an unfavorable opinion of Christy. And
Speaker 5: then a poll that we did back in November and
Speaker 5: earlier polls were seeing fifty to sixty percent of New
Speaker 5: Hampshire Republican primary voters say they wouldn't vote for Christy
Speaker 5: under any circumstances. So he had a very hard ceiling
Speaker 5: on his attempts to grow his support in New Hampshire,
Speaker 5: and it really wouldn't have mattered how much money he spent.
Speaker 5: He was pretty much kept just by being the person
Speaker 5: who's been attacking Trumps for so long.
Speaker 2: Well, so it sounds like he was just looking at
Speaker 2: his own numbers and came to grips with reality. Is
Speaker 2: that fair?
Speaker 5: I think that's a fair assessment of it. He really
Speaker 5: has no chance in any of the other early primary states,
Speaker 5: certainly not in Iowa. He's been banking his entire campaign
Speaker 5: essentially on New Hampshire and he hasn't really gotten much
Speaker 5: of anywhere. It's also important to remember that voters in
Speaker 5: New Hampshire, despite their being campaigns are going on, are
Speaker 5: just really making up their minds right now. Exit polls
Speaker 5: have shown historically that upwards of forty five percent make
Speaker 5: up their minds over the final weekend of the race,
Speaker 5: and upward to fifteen to twenty percent make them their
Speaker 5: mind on election day. So he's I think he's seen
Speaker 5: that he doesn't really have an avenue in New Hampshire
Speaker 5: because of that hard ceiling of unfavorability. He certainly doesn't
Speaker 5: have any capacity of doing well on Iowa or South Carolina.
Speaker 5: The next race or even Michigan. So he had to
Speaker 5: do well in New Hampshire or get out, and I
Speaker 5: think he read the cards and said it's better to
Speaker 5: get out before I lose more money in this game.
Speaker 2: So is this advantage Nikki Haley? I referenced your poll
Speaker 2: from earlier as we consider second choices, sixty five percent
Speaker 2: of Christy's supporters said that they would turn to Nikki
Speaker 2: Haley if he was not on the ballot. Is that
Speaker 2: a number you expect to see turnover?
Speaker 5: It's kind of hard to say, because you know, again
Speaker 5: there's a week and a half left, and we'll see
Speaker 5: what happens in Iowa if de Santis stays in, if
Speaker 5: the Santis drops out, how big or not Trump's margin
Speaker 5: is in Iowa. So there's still some things to happen
Speaker 5: between now and election day. But if you think overall
Speaker 5: about the Republican electorate, we've had a consistently forty percent
Speaker 5: or so people in New Hampshire that have been behind Trump,
Speaker 5: and we're seeing eighty to ninety percent of them say
Speaker 5: they definitely decided who they're going to support. So I
Speaker 5: think Trump's got his base there, but I don't think
Speaker 5: it's going to grow that much because people know who
Speaker 5: Trump is. They're not waiting for anything new to hear
Speaker 5: from Trump that's going to make them lean his way.
Speaker 5: So we have about forty percent for Trump, about sixty
Speaker 5: percent who aren't necessarily for Trump, and those are the
Speaker 5: voters that all of the other Republican candidates were going after.
Speaker 5: Haley seems to have done that. I think the best
Speaker 5: job of threading the needle of not attacking Trump and
Speaker 5: so as not to tick off the MAGA base, but
Speaker 5: also to let people know that she's the alternative Frump.
Speaker 5: And I think that Christy dropping out. His supporters aren't
Speaker 5: necessarily you know, big Hailey supporters, but they know that
Speaker 5: they're not Trump supporters, and they're going for the person
Speaker 5: who's not Trump, and I think that right now is Haley.
Speaker 5: And that's why she's likely to pick up most of
Speaker 5: the support that Christy has well.
Speaker 2: And that would be a pretty big deal. If your
Speaker 2: poll has Donald Trump just single digits in this bred,
Speaker 2: she's within single digits of Trump. You add the Christy vote,
Speaker 2: he's at double digits, and we've got a real race here.
Speaker 5: Andrew, I think so. I think that again, it's important
Speaker 5: to remember voters in New Hampshire don't make up their
Speaker 5: minds until the end. They're really just starting to pay attention.
Speaker 5: Now you've got that block of people that don't like Trump,
Speaker 5: that are and probably aren't that politically engaged, who are
Speaker 5: really starting to pay attention to this race. So she's
Speaker 5: peaking at the right time, and I think she could
Speaker 5: make it close. This has happened before, if you go
Speaker 5: back to two thousand and eight with John McCain who
Speaker 5: peaked at the very end of that race. Hillary Clinton
Speaker 5: coming back and peaking in New Hampshire in two thousand
Speaker 5: and eight on the Democratic side as well, this is
Speaker 5: not an unusual sort of Phenomenon the flip side of
Speaker 5: that is Ron DeSantis a year ago was leading this race.
Speaker 5: He had forty three percent and Trump had thirty percent.
Speaker 5: He peaked way too early before the race really got
Speaker 5: engaged in before voters were paying attention.
Speaker 2: You'll be glad to know Rick Davis, who's on our
Speaker 2: panel every day, will be following you and has some
Speaker 2: pretty interesting insights having managed John McCain's campaign in New Hampshire.
Speaker 2: Andrew remember the crying moment, the emotional moment that Hillary
Speaker 2: Clinton had you're referring to her kind of last minute
Speaker 2: turn to her benefit in New Hampshire. Does Nicki Haley,
Speaker 2: or by the way, we haven't even mentioned a guy
Speaker 2: named Ron DeSantis, do they need a moment like that
Speaker 2: because they're going to come flying in New Hampshire the
Speaker 2: minute the Iowa caucuses are over, and they'll have a
Speaker 2: week to make a difference, basically to your point with
Speaker 2: those late decision makers in New Hampshire. Does Nicki Haley
Speaker 2: need to have a human moment, have a catalyst like
Speaker 2: that that'll get people's attention.
Speaker 5: I don't really think so. If you remember that two
Speaker 5: thousand and eight cycle with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama,
Speaker 5: there were already only two candidates, Obama had come off
Speaker 5: of a win in Iowa, and there were only five
Speaker 5: days between Iowa and New Hampshire. The things that happened
Speaker 5: with Clinton were that there was that debate on Saturday
Speaker 5: night where the moderator asked her why she was unlikable
Speaker 5: and how did that make her feel? And she said
Speaker 5: hurt her feelings and Barack Obama said snarkily, mail you're
Speaker 5: likable enough, Hillary, And then she had that humanizing crying
Speaker 5: moment there and it really galvanized support from republic from
Speaker 5: Democratic women to say, oh yeah, she is being picked
Speaker 5: on again. This is sexism again in the party. Let's
Speaker 5: go for Hillary here. I don't think we have that
Speaker 5: dynamic going on this time around. It's really Trump versus
Speaker 5: the non Trump, and I think Iowa is going to
Speaker 5: make the decision for DeSantis as to whether he's in
Speaker 5: the race or not after Iowa, because his polling numbers
Speaker 5: here in New Hampshire declining. He's now in fourth place
Speaker 5: in New Hampshire even behind Vivek Ramaswami or is a
Speaker 5: good place excuse me. He's behind Vivek here, So he
Speaker 5: doesn't have much of an opportunity in New Hampshire. I
Speaker 5: think to grow his support, it's been declining for a year.
Speaker 5: And if he doesn't make an extraordinary showing in Iowa,
Speaker 5: I think his campaign has to make the decision to
Speaker 5: pull the plug.
Speaker 1: Wow.
Speaker 2: You do wonder in the next week how much of
Speaker 2: this field is going to clear out. Emerson is out
Speaker 2: with new numbers today as well. As we spend time
Speaker 2: with Andrew Smith at the University of New Hampshire. It
Speaker 2: looks in New Hampshire like this in this poll, at
Speaker 2: least Trump forty four, Haley twenty eight, and then Christy twelve.
Speaker 2: DeSantis is in single digits. How much noise is in
Speaker 2: these numbers. You've made the point several times Andy that
Speaker 2: people make this decision late in New Hampshire, and you've
Speaker 2: got the unpredictable nature of forty percent of voters being independent.
Speaker 2: How much stock do you put in any of these
Speaker 2: polls of the week or so out.
Speaker 5: I've been doing pulling in the New Hampshire primary for
Speaker 5: a long time, and historically polls have been wrong as
Speaker 5: often as they've been right, because voters make up their
Speaker 5: mind so late, because so many people tell us that
Speaker 5: they're going to vote but they actually don't turn out.
Speaker 5: Is always the most difficult thing to estimate in any election,
Speaker 5: but especially in a primary election. New Hampshire. We have
Speaker 5: same day registration, so anywhere between ten and fifteen percent
Speaker 5: of the electorate or people that aren't even registered, and
Speaker 5: those people are often missed by other polls who use
Speaker 5: lists of voters who've been previously registered to vote in
Speaker 5: the state. There are a number of other methodological issues
Speaker 5: that make polls quite different in the state. So as
Speaker 5: a polster I would tell anybody about primary polls, use
Speaker 5: them as a very fuzzy gauge of where the election
Speaker 5: is at any time.
Speaker 2: I hope you're going to meet up with us when
Speaker 2: we're up there, or meet you in Manchester, right, I'm
Speaker 2: looking forward to it. Excellent, This is great Andrew Smith.
Speaker 2: He's the director of the Survey Center, University of New Hampshire.
Speaker 2: A great conversation. Thank you for the insights, Andrew. Think
Speaker 2: about this conversation that day we go to vote in
Speaker 2: New Hampshire. We'll see how much has changed in just
Speaker 2: this limited period of time. As we assemble our panel,
Speaker 2: Rick Davis, the afore mentioned alongside Genie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors,
Speaker 2: I'll start with you Rick, Since your name came up
Speaker 2: a little while ago, you've had a little bit of
Speaker 2: time to think about the impact of this Christy departure.
Speaker 2: What is it mean for Nicki Haley?
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think it's exactly what Andrews said. You know,
Speaker 6: the vast majority identify her as their second choice who
Speaker 6: sit on Christy on the ballot yesterday? Remember too, that's
Speaker 6: with Christy in the race, right, So sixty five percent say,
Speaker 6: you know, if something else changes, we'd be willing to
Speaker 6: go and sit on Haley's ballot. Now that he's out
Speaker 6: of the race, that number could go up. It's unlikely
Speaker 6: to go down because you know, the consideration is that
Speaker 6: at the time he was still in the race. So
Speaker 6: it's all upside for her. And I think definitely adds
Speaker 6: to the notion of momentum, which is even more important
Speaker 6: than pulling in money right now, because New Hampshire is
Speaker 6: a momentum state and as he said, you want to
Speaker 6: peek you know, next week.
Speaker 2: That's kind of leaving a scratch and ahs when it
Speaker 2: comes to the polls, right. I mean, this idea of
Speaker 2: momentum is abstract enough, genie that it's very difficult to quantify.
Speaker 2: When I look at a UNH pole that shows True
Speaker 2: ahead by single digits today, an Emerson poll he's ahead
Speaker 2: by what sixteen points?
Speaker 7: Here?
Speaker 2: USA today, Suffolk had him up by twenty Do any.
Speaker 1: Of them matter?
Speaker 8: No?
Speaker 7: I think Andrew is right, and it's you know, I
Speaker 7: think people should listen to him when he says many
Speaker 7: voters in New Hampshire are just now starting to pay attention.
Speaker 7: You know the news today about a dropout. I bet
Speaker 7: you many people in New Hampshire are focused on Bill
Speaker 7: Belichick rather than Chris Christy, to be honest, right, And
Speaker 7: so you know, the reality is is that while we
Speaker 7: watch this day in and day out for voters, they
Speaker 7: are just starting to pay attention. And I think this
Speaker 7: thing can move. That said to imagine that it moves
Speaker 7: twenty thirty points. And you know, when you look at
Speaker 7: some of these polls that have Trump that much ahead,
Speaker 7: that's hard to imagine. But anything can happen. So I
Speaker 7: think a lot rides on what happens in Iowa and
Speaker 7: the momentum Haley can get out of there, if any,
Speaker 7: to move her into New Hampshire. I mean, that's really
Speaker 7: her path forward.
Speaker 2: You heard the hot mic remarks at the beginning of
Speaker 2: our conversation. Here here's what he actually said on the
Speaker 2: microphone a few minutes later.
Speaker 4: Because I want to promise you this. I am going
Speaker 4: to make sure that in no way do I enable
Speaker 4: Donald Trump to ever be president of the United States again.
Speaker 4: And that's more important than my own personal ambition.
Speaker 2: Okay, that's great, but Rick, he says she's going to
Speaker 2: get smoked, which one does he believe.
Speaker 6: He's a politician, He doesn't believe anything he does what
Speaker 6: the pollsters tell him to do. Now, that's a very
Speaker 6: cynical view, but it's not too far off the marth.
Speaker 6: I mean, he's a lifelong Paul. I mean, you know
Speaker 6: what he says in public and what he thinks in private,
Speaker 6: even off of a hot mic, you can't trust any
Speaker 6: of it. It's obviously not in his interest to have
Speaker 6: Donald Trump president again, because I have no doubt that
Speaker 6: if Donald Trump's president, he will find some way to
Speaker 6: go after legally Chris. So it's in his personal self interest,
Speaker 6: professional self interest to see somebody else win. If he's
Speaker 6: cynical enough to get out of the race one day
Speaker 6: and hope it helps her and say at the same time,
Speaker 6: you know she's a loser. It's that that's just who
Speaker 6: he is. There's a reason he's got so many negatives.
Speaker 1: I guess.
Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you what Trump on the Fox News
Speaker 2: last night says he's liking Chris Christy already a lot more.
Speaker 2: We'll walk you through the debate in the town hall
Speaker 2: next with Rick and Jeannie. This is Bloomberg.
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Speaker 2: We were watching, so you didn't have to this split
Speaker 2: screen night. Did you see either of them, the final
Speaker 2: Republican debate or the Trump town hall? You know, he
Speaker 2: skipped them all, including last night, the last debate before
Speaker 2: Iowa to go on Fox News this time of counter
Speaker 2: programming the whole thing, which you might suggest was a
Speaker 2: pretty good strategy after what we saw last evening on
Speaker 2: the stage on CNN Ron DeSantis, Nicki Haley boy not
Speaker 2: fans of each other going for broke here, spending the
Speaker 2: first hour beating each other up, the second hour going
Speaker 2: after Donald Trump and Nicky Haley did go there. On
Speaker 2: the twenty twenty elections, said it out loud.
Speaker 8: That election Trump lost it, Biden won that election, and
Speaker 8: the idea that he's gone and carried this out forever
Speaker 8: to the point that he's going to continue to say
Speaker 8: these things to scare the American people are wrong.
Speaker 2: So reassembled our panel, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano, come along,
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributors. I'm sure you were both up late
Speaker 2: going through the highlights and the low lights here. Why
Speaker 2: don't we start with the debate then we can move
Speaker 2: to Donald Trump's escapade last evening Geenie, Nicky Haley had
Speaker 2: an important moment there. I don't know what the ratings
Speaker 2: look like or how many people may or may not
Speaker 2: have been influence, but to actually share the stage with
Speaker 2: Ron De Santis and go at it, that was probably
Speaker 2: the chippiest debate that we have seen yet in the cycle.
Speaker 2: Did it make any difference?
Speaker 7: No, you know, the words that kept coming to my
Speaker 7: mind were really aggravating. I mean, they both did fine.
Speaker 7: All they did was fight with each other. I did
Speaker 7: the split screen thing, and you had Trump there basically
Speaker 7: on an infomercial, very subdued, very calm, and then you
Speaker 7: had those two going at each other. You know, you
Speaker 7: played that clip from Nikki Haley. She didn't really get
Speaker 7: to the criticism of the faraway front runner until the
Speaker 7: second half of the debate.
Speaker 2: That's right.
Speaker 7: And you know, I don't know what you guys found,
Speaker 7: but like this idea liar, liar pants on fire, you
Speaker 7: know desantislies dot com. Anybody under the age of like,
Speaker 7: you know, I don't know fifty. I felt like it
Speaker 7: was like retro because nobody looks at websites like that anymore.
Speaker 7: That was like in eight when Obama was running and
Speaker 7: we were all applauding that they had a website for
Speaker 7: their paign. You know, she didn't do anything really groundbreaking.
Speaker 7: She kept repeating that, and of course Ron DeSantis was fine,
Speaker 7: but I don't think he made any headway. So I
Speaker 7: just thought the winner here was Donald Trump, as it
Speaker 7: has been throughout all of these debates.
Speaker 2: Well, I'll ask you both about Trump's performance here. How
Speaker 2: about Ron Desantish last night? Rick, it was interesting watching
Speaker 2: him go through the motions one on one. That's not
Speaker 2: something that we've had a chance to witness yet, very
Speaker 2: rehearsed in a lot of cases, going for the money line,
Speaker 2: trying to get the applause line, and so forth. He
Speaker 2: even fell into his remarks apparently like kind of had
Speaker 2: a brain wave and thought he was debating Gavin Newsom
Speaker 2: at one point, as he called her the governor of California.
Speaker 9: Listen to this back and forth in the state of Florida,
Speaker 9: were ranked number one for economy of all fifty states
Speaker 9: by SANBC number one education. She was ranked number fifty
Speaker 9: in education when she was governor of California.
Speaker 2: Well, I think that that was actually from his prep
Speaker 2: from the Haven New some debate on Fox Rick, how
Speaker 2: did he do?
Speaker 6: Yeah, Look, I mean it was really rehearsed, right, I mean,
Speaker 6: like I think the easiest night where the moderator is
Speaker 6: Jake Tapper and and they just they just stood back
Speaker 6: and let these guys go at it, and it was
Speaker 6: really all just talking points. I mean, I don't think
Speaker 6: I've ever heard a debate where the word liar was
Speaker 6: used in every single sentence and a little exhausting. I mean,
Speaker 6: like I kind of give tropes to Donald Trump because like,
Speaker 6: at least he only had an hour town hall and
Speaker 6: you didn't have to suffer through another sixty minutes. I mean,
Speaker 6: like one hundred and twenty minutes of that stuff was
Speaker 6: more than any voter in any state will.
Speaker 5: Ever want to watch.
Speaker 6: So you're right, no telling who watched how they were
Speaker 6: impacted by that. They didn't distinguish themselves poorly. They look
Speaker 6: like professional politicians, you know, beating each other up. I
Speaker 6: don't know how that helps either one of them in Iowa.
Speaker 6: And you know, I'm not exactly sure how any of
Speaker 6: that helps Nicki Haley in New Hampshire since that's your
Speaker 6: top focus. But the bottom line is, I agree with Geenie,
Speaker 6: you know, good night for Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: So it was a tree that fell in the political
Speaker 2: woods on CNN, on Fox, and I am assuming that
Speaker 2: a lot more Republicans saw that. Rick to your point,
Speaker 2: that would be the viewing habit. It was an attempt
Speaker 2: at normalization, at least in my view linees like I'm
Speaker 2: not going to have time for retribution or this one.
Speaker 2: On the dictator, here's Trump.
Speaker 10: I said, I'm going to be a dictator for one day.
Speaker 10: We're going to do two things. The border, we're gonna
Speaker 10: make it so tight you can't get in unless you
Speaker 10: come in legally. And the other is energy. We're gonna drill, baby, drill.
Speaker 10: After that, I'm not going to be a dictator. After that,
Speaker 10: I'm not going to be a dictator.
Speaker 2: So that's what had been said.
Speaker 10: So you were pressing no, no, and Fortas picks it up.
Speaker 10: So I said, I'm going to be a dictator for
Speaker 10: one day. They cut it, they go I'm going to
Speaker 10: be a dictator. They cut the rest of the sentence. Now, no, no,
Speaker 10: i am not going to be a dictator. I'm going
Speaker 10: to manage like we did. We were so successful.
Speaker 2: I Am not going to be a dictator. Rick interesting
Speaker 2: here as Donald Trump is apparently listening to his advisors.
Speaker 6: Yeah, my guess is they pulled that and it was
Speaker 6: not a pretty picture to voters. Regardless of whether it's
Speaker 6: one day or you know, every day your presidency, American
Speaker 6: voters don't want a dictator at all. And so walking
Speaker 6: that back the way he did, I'm not exactly sure
Speaker 6: it was very convincing. First of all, I said, yeah,
Speaker 6: I'm definitely going to be a dictator for the first day,
Speaker 6: but then again, I'm not going to be a dictator.
Speaker 6: And he blames the media, which, by the way, to
Speaker 6: most Fox viewers, they don't consider Fox the media. They
Speaker 6: consider that the truth teller. And you know, maybe that
Speaker 6: works for the crowd that was tuned in, But what
Speaker 6: a cake walk for Donald Trump. I mean, you know,
Speaker 6: the people asking questions, each one started out with how
Speaker 6: great Donald Trump is. And by the way, I'm almost
Speaker 6: embarrassed I have to ask you a question.
Speaker 2: But here you go, well, you know what issue they
Speaker 2: did get into. Really interesting, Genie. This is a recurring
Speaker 2: theme this week, and it's a theme that started here
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg, I dare say, because the idea of being
Speaker 2: afraid to talk about entitlements has been a big concern
Speaker 2: here in Washington, you know, as we nibble around the
Speaker 2: edges of the budget, and our interview with Nicky Haley
Speaker 2: has been coming back again and again and again, and
Speaker 2: her stand on potentially raising the retirement age was referenced
Speaker 2: in both of those shows.
Speaker 1: Last night.
Speaker 2: It came up by Ron DeSantis in the debate, and
Speaker 2: Donald Trump brought it up in the Fox Town Hall.
Speaker 2: Let's listen to what he said.
Speaker 10: DeSantis wants to cut social Security and Medicare. Nicky Haley
Speaker 10: wants to cut Social Security and medica Nicky Haley wanted
Speaker 10: to raise the age, okay, from sixty five to seventy four?
Speaker 5: Seventy four?
Speaker 2: Did that come from? That was from our interview with
Speaker 2: Nicky Haley on the twenty fourth of August. To the
Speaker 2: point now where not only was Donald Trump ready for
Speaker 2: that line of attack last night, Rick and Jeanie, but
Speaker 2: it has apparently been put into an official ad a
Speaker 2: Trump campaign ad that dropped this morning in New Hampshire
Speaker 2: here he.
Speaker 1: Is was to secure retirement. Nicky Haley's plan ends.
Speaker 2: That social Security Medicare, How would you manage the entitlementsged? Okay,
Speaker 2: So from our interview here on Bloomberg, Genie, does that
Speaker 2: mean that this in fact will be a major issue
Speaker 2: on the campaign trail? We're going to forget about it
Speaker 2: after the primaries.
Speaker 7: Whose boys did we just hear on that ad?
Speaker 2: Was that you jail? Yeah, I'm afraid.
Speaker 7: I'm glad to hear that. Trump and his team and
Speaker 7: everybody is listening, and it's a really important issue. And
Speaker 7: we heard it to your point in the town hall.
Speaker 7: We heard it in the debate. There was an extended
Speaker 7: discussion by DeSantis and Nicky Haley arguing back and forth
Speaker 7: about the very issue that you asked her about way
Speaker 7: back in August. And now they have her on tape,
Speaker 7: and you know, economically, she is probably right to raise this.
Speaker 7: We do have an enormous problem, but everybody from DeSantis
Speaker 7: to Trump to Biden knows politically it's a loser, and
Speaker 7: so that's why they keep bringing it up. And of
Speaker 7: course I think we will hear Joe Biden bring it
Speaker 7: up as well. If potentially, and it's a big if
Speaker 7: you were to see somebody like Nicky Haley, you know,
Speaker 7: win the nomination. I mean, this is Rick Scott all
Speaker 7: over again, and they are just waiting to on her
Speaker 7: for it.
Speaker 2: Rick Scott all over again. Rick Davis makes me think
Speaker 2: that this will not be an issue on the campaign
Speaker 2: trail when this goes to the general.
Speaker 6: Yeah, you could just tell that Nicky Haley really tried
Speaker 6: to walk it back, conditioning, conditioning, the comments she made
Speaker 6: to you in that interview. My guess is we're going
Speaker 6: to see you in other campaign commercials besides just Donald
Speaker 6: Trump's before the end of this. But that's only if
Speaker 6: Nicky has any life after New Hampshire. So let's hold
Speaker 6: our breath and hope that Joe becomes an issue in
Speaker 6: the general election campaign.
Speaker 2: God forbid, we don't want to become the story. Rick
Speaker 2: Davis and Genie Shanz no great analysis, and they're going
Speaker 2: to be back with us after we tackle some issues
Speaker 2: with Jared Bernstein. I've been looking forward to this conversation
Speaker 2: as well because we've got important news today and I
Speaker 2: haven't even gotten around to yet. And that's consumer prices.
Speaker 2: You've been hearing about it throughout the day on Bloomberg
Speaker 2: CPI day with data showing inflation up more than expected,
Speaker 2: and we want the view from the White House. As
Speaker 2: always in a chance to spend some time with Jared Bernstein,
Speaker 2: of course, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors.
Speaker 2: He's with us as you can see on YouTube from
Speaker 2: the White House North Lawn. Mister chairman, it's great to
Speaker 2: see you. Before I ask you about CPI, I wonder
Speaker 2: your thoughts on this conversation about the retirement age, about
Speaker 2: managing potentially reforming entitlement, social Security and Medicare. Is that
Speaker 2: something that the administration plans to weigh into.
Speaker 11: I think we already have in the sense that our
Speaker 11: budget continuously extends the solvency, Medicare, social Security. These are
Speaker 11: critical programs that this prison has not only pledged to protect,
Speaker 11: but has continuously provided proposals to do so. Now, look,
Speaker 11: I mean one way to do this is to continue
Speaker 11: to pursue his fair taxation agenda. Not a dime of
Speaker 11: higher taxes under four hundred thousand AGI, but he has
Speaker 11: a robust agenda to enforce fair taxation. Part of that
Speaker 11: by the way is blocking people from millionaires and billionaires
Speaker 11: from evading taxes by making sure that the IRS is
Speaker 11: adequately funded. And what have the Republicans done. They've actively
Speaker 11: worked against that funding, tried to cut it, and in
Speaker 11: fact have extracted reductions there in some of these budget deals.
Speaker 11: That's basically a shadow tax cut for tax evators. And
Speaker 11: that's not okay for wealthy tax evators, and that's not
Speaker 11: okay with this president.
Speaker 2: At some point, though, the retirement age is going to
Speaker 2: have to be lifted, Jared, isn't it. We're living longer.
Speaker 2: It's just a different world now.
Speaker 11: Look, social Security is such an essentially important program for
Speaker 11: our seniors, and it is one of the most effective,
Speaker 11: efficient programs we have. We're going to continue to protect it,
Speaker 11: to bolster it, and to make sure it is there
Speaker 11: for generations to come.
Speaker 2: Maybe you'll end up in a Trump ad as well.
Speaker 1: Jared.
Speaker 2: I wonder on this CPI day, how are you feeling.
Speaker 2: I'm looking at the headlines here. US inflation accelerates, tempering
Speaker 2: case for Fed to cut rates. US inflation picks up
Speaker 2: as goods prices halt month's long decline. I could keep going.
Speaker 2: Here is the moral of the story that this matter
Speaker 2: of inflation, the trajectory does not in fact move in
Speaker 2: a straight line. Because we were talking about goldilocks a
Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago, jareded, how do we decipher this one?
Speaker 11: Yeah, that's exactly the right way to tee that up.
Speaker 11: Any month can bump one way or the other. And
Speaker 11: I know, Joe, I've emphasized this in our discussions. We
Speaker 11: at the Council of Economic Advisors make a point out
Speaker 11: of never over emphasizing a particular month. And in fact,
Speaker 11: by the way, if you look at the pace of
Speaker 11: a headline CPI inflation over the past three months annualize,
Speaker 11: it's still one point eight percent, and that's because the
Speaker 11: last three months were zero point one point three. So
Speaker 11: do the math and you get that kind of underlying
Speaker 11: trend remains the friend of those who want to see
Speaker 11: inflation continues to come down. You mentioned goods prices. I
Speaker 11: think the unsnarling supply chains is very much baked in
Speaker 11: the cake, and we saw goods prices continue to be
Speaker 11: very low. So look, I mean inflation, core inflation very
Speaker 11: important to the FED. Core inflation of course hit expectations.
Speaker 11: The point three was expected. Point three was delivered. So
Speaker 11: we see that prices continuing to ease, job market remaining strong,
Speaker 11: and the combination of those two delivering real wage gains,
Speaker 11: which we also learned about this morning. And that's a trend,
Speaker 11: not a blip. We've seen real wages up about a
Speaker 11: percent over the past year, and they've been rising now
Speaker 11: for a while, very important to our working families.
Speaker 2: I've talked before as well, Jared about the last mile
Speaker 2: that it's in fact, you know, it's that last ten
Speaker 2: pounds that are so hard to lose. Here are we
Speaker 2: going into the most difficult part of this inflation battle.
Speaker 11: I mean, I think we'll have to see. I certainly
Speaker 11: understand those arguments. I mean, one question there is is
Speaker 11: there more room to run on the economy supply side.
Speaker 11: Can we continue to improve supply chains and can we
Speaker 11: continue to see labor supply increase, especially among prime age workers.
Speaker 11: And I think the answer to both of those is yes.
Speaker 11: So I'm not ready to sign up for you know,
Speaker 11: this last mile argument, though it's something we're of course
Speaker 11: going to be keeping a close eye on.
Speaker 2: Okay, that's fascinating. Do you worry about the impact of
Speaker 2: what's going on on the red seat Jared, you've referred
Speaker 2: to supply chains and goods prices here, and we're looking
Speaker 2: at these massive tankers going all the way around Africa
Speaker 2: because of this security threat at the moment. Is that
Speaker 2: going to reach consumers at some point?
Speaker 11: Again, this is something that whether it's our national security
Speaker 11: our economic team monitoring extremely closely. Operation Prosperity, as you know,
Speaker 11: is a coalition effort in effect to help escort ships
Speaker 11: and keep commerce going in the region. Now, I think
Speaker 11: the important thing there is to just cut right to
Speaker 11: the punchline and look at the impact on gas prices.
Speaker 11: At least thus far, it's been a very limited impact.
Speaker 11: I woke up this morning and the national gas price
Speaker 11: was three dollars and eight cents a gallon. It was
Speaker 11: below three dollars in thirty states across the land. And
Speaker 11: remember in June of twenty two that price peaked at
Speaker 11: north of five dollars a gallon. So that's been very
Speaker 11: welcome to American consumers at the pump. It's also helping
Speaker 11: to keep consumer spending strong, and that's been at the
Speaker 11: core of our recovery. So limited impact thus far, but
Speaker 11: very much of course on the watch list.
Speaker 2: I'm spending time with Jared Bernstein, chair of the White
Speaker 2: House Council of Economic Advisors, here on Bloomberg. I'm sure
Speaker 2: you're dialed in on this potential for a tax deal
Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill. Jared, I'm kind of amazed that we're
Speaker 2: even having this converse right now when we're not even
Speaker 2: sure if we can fund the government, or dealing with
Speaker 2: the border, or so many other issues that we could
Speaker 2: talk about. But apparently we are on the verge of
Speaker 2: a deal between the Democratic led Senate and the Republican
Speaker 2: Ledhouse that would restore the child tax the enhanced child
Speaker 2: tax credit, in exchange for more friendly business taxes. I
Speaker 2: wonder if the White House is in favor of this,
Speaker 2: if you have a sense of the contours of what
Speaker 2: the economic impact of that might look like.
Speaker 11: Well, I think it's a really important practice not for
Speaker 11: the White House to comment until the President goes first
Speaker 11: when it comes to ongoing negotiation. So I'm not going
Speaker 11: to give you a White House readout. What I will
Speaker 11: say is that President Biden has consistently supported a child
Speaker 11: tax credit expansion, much like the one he put in
Speaker 11: place in the Rescue Plan. Now he's talked about the
Speaker 11: importance of paying for that. And again that takes us
Speaker 11: back to a tax agenda that injects a significant fairness
Speaker 11: into the code, particularly for those at the top of
Speaker 11: the scale, and particularly for those who want to evade
Speaker 11: taxes by giving the irs the resources it needs. But look,
Speaker 11: the child tax credit reduced child poverty in half, and
Speaker 11: then it expired and child poverty went way back up.
Speaker 11: It is one of the greatest investments we can make
Speaker 11: in this nation to have as low a child poverty
Speaker 11: rate as possible. And what we learned from earlier versions
Speaker 11: of that debate the numbers I just cited, is that
Speaker 11: the child poverty rate is a policy decision, and our
Speaker 11: decision is to try to keep that as low as possible,
Speaker 11: and that certainly connects to a robust CTC.
Speaker 2: Well, there was a lot of concern about the expiration,
Speaker 2: of course, the Child's tax Credit. We talked a lot
Speaker 2: about as well, the expansion of covid ERA funding for
Speaker 2: child care programs, the childcare cliff they called it. We
Speaker 2: went over that cliff, Jared, and I wonder if the
Speaker 2: landing has not been as hard. Forgive me if I'm
Speaker 2: using the wrong expression here is some had feared.
Speaker 11: Well, maybe I would probably hone the expression a little
Speaker 11: in the following way. Just the way that was constructed,
Speaker 11: it was more of a phase down than a cliff.
Speaker 11: But look, the bottom line is still relevant. We really
Speaker 11: want to make sure that anyone who wants to join
Speaker 11: this labor market and work the desired number of hours
Speaker 11: and weeks they want ought to be able to do so.
Speaker 11: And especially for caretakers who are of course disproportionately women,
Speaker 11: that means adequate access to affordable childcare. I would call this,
Speaker 11: In fact, President Biden would call this one of our
Speaker 11: more important pieces of unfinished business as we go forward. Again,
Speaker 11: we have robust proposals in our budget, fully paid for,
Speaker 11: to expand access to affordable childcare. And it's not just
Speaker 11: an important micro issue for people at the kitchen table,
Speaker 11: which is what this president cares so much about. It's
Speaker 11: also helpful to the macro economy by boosting labor supply.
Speaker 2: Well, this is remarkably happening at the same time, as
Speaker 2: I mentioned, we talk about government funding. Next Friday would
Speaker 2: be the beginning of a shutdown if this doesn't work out,
Speaker 2: And I know that Speaker Johnson is under immense pressure
Speaker 2: from his right flank in the House to not do
Speaker 2: a continuing resolution. Jared, I'm just wondering if you see
Speaker 2: the odds of a shutdown rising and what economic impact
Speaker 2: that would have.
Speaker 11: I think it's really hard to put odds on these things,
Speaker 11: but I think the people who watch it closely took
Speaker 11: those odds pretty far down when it looked like there was,
Speaker 11: if not an agreement a proposal from Speaker Johnson on
Speaker 11: the top lines for the appropriation bills. Let me put
Speaker 11: it this way again, these are ongoing negotiations that I
Speaker 11: don't want to lean into from this particular podium. But
Speaker 11: what I will say is this, you and I have
Speaker 11: just had a good, robust discussion of all the things
Speaker 11: that are going right in the US economy, low unemployment, inflation, easing,
Speaker 11: real wage gains, actual cost reductions in key areas of
Speaker 11: consumer spending, whether it's gas, milk, red eggs, airfares, TVs,
Speaker 11: and so on. The idea that we would want to
Speaker 11: kick the ball in our own goal with an unnecessary
Speaker 11: government shutdown when the when, when I think majorities on
Speaker 11: both sides want to avoid that is absolutely counterindicated right now.
Speaker 11: So I just am urging anyone who is in that
Speaker 11: in those negotiations to uh to avoid that that possibility.
Speaker 2: It's like a recurring nightmare.
Speaker 1: Jared.
Speaker 2: It's always a good and robust conversation with the Chair
Speaker 2: of the White House Counsel of Economic Advisors, Jared Bernstein.
Speaker 2: Great to see you, sir. Thanks for joining us always.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: Welcome to our two of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe
Speaker 2: Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines. How many days to Iowa? Five
Speaker 2: four four and we've got nine days to a possible shutdown.
Speaker 2: I'm still really compelled by how all of these are
Speaker 2: going to smash together over the next week. Iowa shutdown
Speaker 2: New Hampshire or is it Iowa motion to vacate New Hampshire.
Speaker 12: Good question.
Speaker 2: We're going to be in early States while some wild
Speaker 2: stuff is going on.
Speaker 5: Here in Washington.
Speaker 12: Wild indeed, I mean it's already happening. It's already wild.
Speaker 12: It could potentially get more wild as we get closer
Speaker 12: and closer to a deadline. That is what tends to happen.
Speaker 12: The clock starts ticking louder and faster. But if you're
Speaker 12: Mike Johnson right now probably figuring out how you can
Speaker 12: fund the government and keep your job, or is that
Speaker 12: simply not possible? These are two binary outcomes, or.
Speaker 2: Is your name just still Kevin, because that's what it
Speaker 2: feels like. We'll talk more about that with Kyle ahead,
Speaker 2: because you might have seen Chuck Schumer is not waiting around.
Speaker 2: He's starting the cloture process on a cr today. So
Speaker 2: we'll talk a little more about potentially being jammed by
Speaker 2: the Senate as we all try to recover from our
Speaker 2: debate hangover. Was that an exercise in futility? I don't
Speaker 2: know if we've seen ratings yet, but I just don't
Speaker 2: feel like that moved the needle for a lot of people.
Speaker 12: Well, we heard a lot of what we had already
Speaker 12: heard from Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis to a large part,
Speaker 12: at least when it comes to contrasting them with the
Speaker 12: current front runner, Donald Trump. I think the question is
Speaker 12: did one of them succeed in getting farther ahead of
Speaker 12: the other, if not getting closer to Trump? Did one
Speaker 12: right gain in one lose.
Speaker 2: I don't know that Micky Haley is waiting around for
Speaker 2: all the Christie voters to show up for her, so
Speaker 2: it might have just been a wash of a night.
Speaker 2: Kyle Condick joins us from Sabado's Crystal Ball at Kaylee's
Speaker 2: alma mater, the University of Virginia. Kyle, it's great to
Speaker 2: see you. I'm sorry if you had to endure all
Speaker 2: of that as well. I'm sure you did. Did it
Speaker 2: make a difference?
Speaker 13: Probably not. You know that we've been waiting for some
Speaker 13: posts New Year's Day more Iowa. A couple couple came
Speaker 13: out today Suffolk and then Iowa State just dropped one
Speaker 13: a few minutes ago. And Trump's over fifty in both
Speaker 13: of them, and Haley and Desanta's are you know, close
Speaker 13: to each other. I've but very far behind Trump, you know,
Speaker 13: in the fifteen to twenty percent range. I think they
Speaker 13: were tired at fourteen in the Iowa state poles. So
Speaker 13: you know, I mean, maybe we're in't for some sort
Speaker 13: of huge surprise here on Monday night. But you know,
Speaker 13: all of the indicators are that we have so far
Speaker 13: is that Trump is going to win this thing going away.
Speaker 12: Well, Kyle, do we need to redefine what surprise actually
Speaker 12: means when it comes to Iowa? Because sure it would
Speaker 12: be absolutely astounding if Trump didn't win, But could the
Speaker 12: surprise actually be in the margin? How close to him
Speaker 12: is enough that even second place feels like massive news.
Speaker 13: So the Trump campaign has noted accurately that of all
Speaker 13: the you know, contested you know, non incumbent Republican Iowa
Speaker 13: cocauses and over history, the biggest margin of victory is
Speaker 13: is twelve points, and so they're sort of setting the
Speaker 13: bar like, hey, we win by more than twelve points,
Speaker 13: that's good. I personally, don't you know if they wouldn't
Speaker 13: buy like thirteen and fourteen. I don't think that that's
Speaker 13: some sort of impressive performance given what the polls are
Speaker 13: showing now, which is more like he's up by like
Speaker 13: thirty points. You know, what is the difference between a
Speaker 13: good performance and a bad one? I don't know, maybe
Speaker 13: that's like forty percent or something like that, which actually,
Speaker 13: you know, given the polls, he's consistently but over fifty
Speaker 13: forty percent would seem maybe not that great. So there
Speaker 13: is you know, there are maybe there's maybe a higher
Speaker 13: bar for Trump to impress in Iowa, but if he
Speaker 13: matches the polls, he will have done that. I also
Speaker 13: think it's probably fair to treat Trump differently than you
Speaker 13: would a normal non incumbent race because he is sort
Speaker 13: of like a quasi incmbent given that he's the you know,
Speaker 13: he's aiming for a third straight Republican presidential nomination and
Speaker 13: has already served the term as president before. So I
Speaker 13: don't know where i'd put the number necessarily, but you know,
Speaker 13: just just matching or slightly exceeding that historical you know,
Speaker 13: twelve point margin, that probably is not good enough to
Speaker 13: be impressive, and in fact, I think would probably be
Speaker 13: disappointing if it's close to that number. Again, given what
Speaker 13: the polls say.
Speaker 2: Well, of course everyone's banking on a surprise in New
Speaker 2: Hampshire because it's New Hampshire. Of course, it's not a
Speaker 2: surprise if you're expecting it. But after Chris Christy dropped
Speaker 2: out of the race, Kyle, I wonder your thoughts on
Speaker 2: the impact it could have on Nikki Haley. We've seen
Speaker 2: polls that show Donald Trump and Haley within single digits.
Speaker 2: This would make up the difference there, but we also
Speaker 2: heard from Christy himself, hot Mike, She's not up for this,
Speaker 2: She's going to get smoked, which Christie is right.
Speaker 13: Look, I would not be surprised by Haley winning in
Speaker 13: New Hampshire. I think she frankly needs to win New
Speaker 13: Hampshire to really to really justify staying in the contest. Frankly,
Speaker 13: you know, her home state of South Carolina votes like
Speaker 13: a month after New Hampshire, and so you kind of
Speaker 13: enter like a little bit of a dead period. There
Speaker 13: are contests in Nevada in early February, but there's a
Speaker 13: caucus that's actually awarding the delegates that Donald Trump's probably
Speaker 13: gonna win easily. And then there's like a beauty contest
Speaker 13: primary that Haley's competing and she's not competing for the delegates,
Speaker 13: which she'll probably win comfortably. I don't know what you
Speaker 13: really do with that. So after New Hampshire, the focus
Speaker 13: will really go go to South Carolina. But again Haley,
Speaker 13: the coalition Haley is building is kind of kind of
Speaker 13: centered on more moderate voters. You know, a lot of
Speaker 13: independence can cross over and vote in the New Hampshire primary.
Speaker 13: It probably will and probably incline to support a candidate
Speaker 13: like her, particularly with Chris Grissey out.
Speaker 4: Of the race.
Speaker 13: You know, if Haley can't win there, and let's say
Speaker 13: Trump wins Iowa and New Hampshire, I don't know if
Speaker 13: there's much of a rationale for anyone else to even
Speaker 13: continue given that. You know, I guess at that point,
Speaker 13: the only real threat that Trump would be some of
Speaker 13: these legal matters he's dealing with. But he would have
Speaker 13: you know, he would have basically stopped DeSantis in Iowa
Speaker 13: and stopped Haley in New Hampshire. But again, I could
Speaker 13: I could definitely see Haley winning New Hampshire. But that's
Speaker 13: not enough to make this thing a real horse race.
Speaker 13: I think Trump would have to lose South Carolina too
Speaker 13: in order for you Weeks to go into Super Tuesday
Speaker 13: and say, hey, this thing is really opened up.
Speaker 12: Well, Kyle, doesn't it matter who else is in the
Speaker 12: race at that point? Do you think we could see
Speaker 12: a further thinning of the field between Iowa in New Hampshire?
Speaker 12: If Ron DeSantis can't actually get number two in Iowa,
Speaker 12: do you think that means he's out?
Speaker 10: It could?
Speaker 13: I mean, it's you know, it's a decision. It's up
Speaker 13: to him. Although you know, you have to look at
Speaker 13: like whether he would have the resources to continue, et cetera.
Speaker 13: But you know, he has banked everything on Iowa, and
Speaker 13: I think he you know, his polling has suffered certainly
Speaker 13: in New Hampshire. If he can't finish ahead of Haley
Speaker 13: in Iowa, he's certainly not going to finish ahead of
Speaker 13: or in New Hampshire. So I you know, I think
Speaker 13: it might be it could potentially be curtains for DeSantis
Speaker 13: if if Iowa doesn't turnout in some sort of positive
Speaker 13: kind of way for him.
Speaker 2: What do you make of this? I don't mean to
Speaker 2: sneak up on you with a Kyle this No Labels
Speaker 2: news that we're hearing about just in the last hour
Speaker 2: here Larry Hogan is stepping down from the No Label's
Speaker 2: board in what some see as made maybe the best
Speaker 2: indication yet then he too plans to run No Labels itself,
Speaker 2: separately being reported as in touch with allies of Chris Christie.
Speaker 2: Is this just noise or are we going to have
Speaker 2: a third party candidate?
Speaker 13: You know, I find that difficult to handicap. Actually had
Speaker 13: not heard about the Hogan news until you just mentioned it.
Speaker 13: You know, he would be sort of the logical person
Speaker 13: to run. And you know, look, I think from the
Speaker 13: Democrats perspective, you know, a Chris Christy or a Larry
Speaker 13: Cogan heading a No Labels ticket, I mean, that's probably
Speaker 13: bad worst news for Joe Biden, it is for Donald
Speaker 13: Trump because they have appeal to the kind of like
Speaker 13: lapsed Republican voters that may more naturally be Biden voters
Speaker 13: as opposed to Trump voters. And I had to head matchup.
Speaker 13: So you know, I think it's also possible that No
Speaker 13: Labels just just sputters out and doesn't run anyone. But
Speaker 13: you know, that's that's one of the one of the
Speaker 13: many wildcard's interesting that like the primary season is actually
Speaker 13: is not that exciting, but there's a whole lot of
Speaker 13: other stuff about this twenty twenty four election that is
Speaker 13: exciting and interesting thing. And the potential roster of third
Speaker 13: party candidates is part of that, which is against still
Speaker 13: up in the air. And you know, these candidates would
Speaker 13: have to get BAID access or No Labels is trying
Speaker 13: to get ballid access for their person if they run someone.
Speaker 13: So that's one of the movement pieces here.
Speaker 12: Well, there's also moving pieces in the background, Kyle Joe
Speaker 12: and I were just discussing it here in Washington. We're
Speaker 12: in this big showdown over spending. We're facing down a
Speaker 12: potential government shut down with the knowledge that the Speaker
Speaker 12: of the House, Mike Johnson, has a very close relationship
Speaker 12: with the former president. And I'm conscious that I may
Speaker 12: be overthinking it here, considering I from where I sit
Speaker 12: pay very close attention to the twenty twenty four race
Speaker 12: and to Congress when not everyone else does. But could
Speaker 12: Trump be damaged if there is a government shut down
Speaker 12: and it's perceived as him having some influence on that,
Speaker 12: because this could be happening while people are making choices
Speaker 12: in primaries.
Speaker 13: I doubt it in the short term. I mean, look,
Speaker 13: if we have like an entire year of chaos in
Speaker 13: the House, and maybe you have like a government shut
Speaker 13: down in late summer or in the fall, which I
Speaker 13: doubt Republicans would allow it to happen.
Speaker 5: But I mean, who knows.
Speaker 13: The Republican conference in the House just seems basically ungovernable.
Speaker 13: So I don't think that this stuff matters in terms
Speaker 13: of the actual twenty twenty four presidential election. I mean, look,
Speaker 13: I mean we have you know, the presidential candidates, who
Speaker 13: the nominees are, they end up becoming basically the leaders
Speaker 13: of their respective parties. I think that a lot of
Speaker 13: the election results kind of flow from what happens in
Speaker 13: the presidential race, and so I don't think that the again,
Speaker 13: that the chaos in the House is all that meaningful.
Speaker 13: Certainly meaningful for the operation of the country though, and
Speaker 13: I guess you know see why the certainly why the
Speaker 13: markets would care about it, and why people who follow
Speaker 13: this stuff closely would care about it. But in terms
Speaker 13: of political impact, I'd say probably not much, at least
Speaker 13: in the short term.
Speaker 2: You wonder to what extent Donald Trump has his thumb
Speaker 2: on the scale in the House, though, Kyle, with the
Speaker 2: Speaker talking to him on the regular, you talk to
Speaker 2: him and Joe Biden apparently yesterday alone, and we're hearing
Speaker 2: so pretty loud noise from the Freedom Caucus here, and
Speaker 2: you wonder to what extent the discord is being fed
Speaker 2: by the former president.
Speaker 13: It's quite possible. I mean, you know, the former president
Speaker 13: demands total loyalty, but he doesn't necessarily give it back
Speaker 13: in return, and you know, he's been sort of a
Speaker 13: chaos agent in the past in terms of his dealings
Speaker 13: with uh, you know, with with with with Republic, his
Speaker 13: fellow party members, and you know, in in in the
Speaker 13: House and the Senate. So you know, I doubt, I
Speaker 13: doubt that the former president is being a constructive player
Speaker 13: and trying to resolve these things and quite possibly the opposite.
Speaker 12: Finally, Kyle, we only have about forty five seconds left.
Speaker 12: But what a shutdown make it change the odds of
Speaker 12: how many seats may flip in terms of the House
Speaker 12: majority come November, because we got to consider the down
Speaker 12: ballot here too.
Speaker 13: Again, in the short term, I don't really think so.
Speaker 13: But again, you know, it's quite gospel that you'd have
Speaker 13: this sort of volatility continuing throughout the year, and I
Speaker 13: would think that would probably help Democrats on the margins.
Speaker 13: But again, I think we're still far away from that
Speaker 13: potentially being important. You know, there's such a churn of
Speaker 13: news and stuff that I just think these things can
Speaker 13: be easily for good, even though I don't want to
Speaker 13: downplay they actually have clear real world importance. I just
Speaker 13: don't necessarily know if they're going to be dictating election outcomes,
Speaker 13: you know, here in January, looking ahead to November.
Speaker 2: Well, Kyle, it's good to see a Kyle Knack at
Speaker 2: Sabaga's Crystal Ball where he's managing editor at the University
Speaker 2: of Virginia Center for Politics. We thank you as always, Kyle.
Speaker 2: Stay in touch. We'd like to talk to you once
Speaker 2: we get some actual voting to discuss. It is kind
Speaker 2: of crazy to think about that on Monday.
Speaker 12: It'll be real, real numbers four days away.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and we'll be there for it. The weather is
Speaker 2: another matter. We'll talk about that later this hour too,
Speaker 2: because that'll be another point of history in Iowa with
Speaker 2: Kaylee Lions. I'm Joe Matthew.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I've really it's become a habit now, a daily
Speaker 2: thing where I'm watching the local newscast, the local weathercast specifically,
Speaker 2: but it's the local stations in Des Moines that have
Speaker 2: really attracted my attention and for them, even for them,
Speaker 2: this is going to be really bad. We've talked about
Speaker 2: the cold. Yeah, but it's getting colder.
Speaker 12: I don't even know if we can describe this as cold.
Speaker 12: It seems like an inadequate description for temperatures of negative
Speaker 12: twenty and wind chills of they get thirty to forty
Speaker 12: degrees fahrenheit.
Speaker 2: Mind you yes, biblical. A Wall Street Journal reporter tweets
Speaker 2: Nikki Haley talking about the weather today quote, it's going
Speaker 2: to be so cold. I don't even know what negative
Speaker 2: fifteen is. I was complaining when it was cold in
Speaker 2: Iowa in October. Are you ready for the latest? KCCI
Speaker 2: channel eight des Moines.
Speaker 14: Snowfall them mount six to nine inches over parts of
Speaker 14: western and northern Iowa six or nine to twelve inches
Speaker 14: for places like Fort Dodge over toward Humboldt, Iowa. Falls
Speaker 14: down toward Ames and Marshalltown six to nine inches, and
Speaker 14: the metro. We're gonna be on that cuss there boat
Speaker 14: where we can higher amount tomorrow. And then the bitter
Speaker 14: cold settles in coming up on Saturday, the snow flurries.
Speaker 14: It's possible by Saturday evening we drop below zero and
Speaker 14: we stay below zero for air temperatures all the way
Speaker 14: into Tuesday afternoon.
Speaker 2: The whole time we're there, literally, so it's gonna be
Speaker 2: below zero tomorrow I guess by the time we get
Speaker 2: there Saturday, and it'll stay there for the duration. How
Speaker 2: are we gonna get there though, there's another snowstorm tomorrow.
Speaker 12: I don't know. Cross your fingers. Joe, bundle up.
Speaker 2: You mentioned something about hypothermia.
Speaker 12: Yeah, apparently if we're outside for longer than ten.
Speaker 2: This is for caucus goers as well.
Speaker 12: Post Yeah, that's when hypothermia could set out, so we
Speaker 12: are not adiquately prepared. Okay, Yeah, so run.
Speaker 2: That's basically we'll just not spend much time outside. Yeah,
Speaker 2: we'll let you know how awful it looks tomorrow, I guess,
Speaker 2: because this could impact turnout. It's not just about Joe
Speaker 2: and Kayley. Thanks for listening to the Sound On podcast.
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