1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,760 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:18,880 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Thursday edition of Bloomberg Sound on Little Friday. 6 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:21,640 Speaker 2: We're glad you're with us here as America recovers from 7 00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:25,080 Speaker 2: the final Republican debate and for that matter, Trump town 8 00:00:25,239 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 2: hall before we get to Iowa. And we were watching, 9 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 2: of course, so you didn't have to. And we'll be 10 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 2: walking through some of the highlights and low lights over 11 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 2: the course of the hour. Here. The only thing hot, 12 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:39,519 Speaker 2: it seems in Iowa or New Hampshire right now are 13 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:42,879 Speaker 2: the microphones. Just ask Chris Christie. You heard this as 14 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 2: he prepared to make the big announcement that he was 15 00:00:45,120 --> 00:00:47,520 Speaker 2: dropping out of the race, not to be a spoiler. 16 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:50,880 Speaker 2: He was being honest on a mic wired up behind 17 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 2: the scenes before he came out the podium. A lot 18 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:55,960 Speaker 2: of folks seem to have read this. Few seem to 19 00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 2: have heard it. Have you heard what Chris Christie said 20 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 2: about Nikki Haley? Remember the whole idea was here, He's 21 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 2: got double digits in New Hampshire. He drops out those 22 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 2: voters sixty five percent of them according to the CNN 23 00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:10,520 Speaker 2: UNH survey. May just jump on board Nikki Haley and 24 00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:15,399 Speaker 2: then we've got momentum in a real race. Except he 25 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:16,440 Speaker 2: doesn't actually believe that. 26 00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:19,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, she spent sixty eight million so 27 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 3: far just on TV. Spent sixty eight million so far, 28 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:26,640 Speaker 3: fifty nine million by Desantus and we spent twelve. I mean, 29 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:29,160 Speaker 3: who's punching above their weight and who's getting a return 30 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 3: on their investment? 31 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 4: You know, And she's going to get smoked. 32 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:34,200 Speaker 3: And you and I both know it. She's not up 33 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 3: to this. 34 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 2: She's going to get smoked. You and I both know it. 35 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:41,479 Speaker 2: She's not up to this. Did it matter what he said? 36 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 2: After that? That's where we start our conversation with Andrews. Smith. 37 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 2: I've been looking forward to this, and if you're a 38 00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:49,720 Speaker 2: listener of this broadcast, you've heard mister Smith before. He 39 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 2: is the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey 40 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 2: Center and knows the landscape in New Hampshire as well 41 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 2: as anyone. As I mentioned the CNN UNH poll that 42 00:01:57,440 --> 00:02:00,400 Speaker 2: came out earlier this week made a lot of waves Andrew, 43 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 2: it's great to see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg Radio. 44 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 2: I wonder what the thought was? Great to have you 45 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:09,760 Speaker 2: the thought in New Hampshire. As Chris Christie, apparently a 46 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:12,679 Speaker 2: darling of New Hampshire, decided to drop out of the race, 47 00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:17,359 Speaker 2: did he cancel out his message with the off mike moment? 48 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:20,359 Speaker 5: No, I don't think so. I think it is a 49 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 5: one day story. It's important to remember that Chris Christie 50 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 5: is not beloved about New Hampshire Republicans. In fact, since 51 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 5: we've been measuring favorability ratings and some other numbers, he 52 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:35,200 Speaker 5: has by far the lowest favorability rating of any of 53 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 5: the Republicans running in the New Hampshire primary, including h 54 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:44,840 Speaker 5: Aatha Hutchinson. And we see that sixty percent of likely 55 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:49,000 Speaker 5: Republican primary voters have an unfavorable opinion of Christy. And 56 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 5: then a poll that we did back in November and 57 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 5: earlier polls were seeing fifty to sixty percent of New 58 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 5: Hampshire Republican primary voters say they wouldn't vote for Christy 59 00:02:57,320 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 5: under any circumstances. So he had a very hard ceiling 60 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 5: on his attempts to grow his support in New Hampshire, 61 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 5: and it really wouldn't have mattered how much money he spent. 62 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 5: He was pretty much kept just by being the person 63 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:11,800 Speaker 5: who's been attacking Trumps for so long. 64 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 2: Well, so it sounds like he was just looking at 65 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:16,800 Speaker 2: his own numbers and came to grips with reality. Is 66 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:17,280 Speaker 2: that fair? 67 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 5: I think that's a fair assessment of it. He really 68 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:23,320 Speaker 5: has no chance in any of the other early primary states, 69 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:27,639 Speaker 5: certainly not in Iowa. He's been banking his entire campaign 70 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 5: essentially on New Hampshire and he hasn't really gotten much 71 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 5: of anywhere. It's also important to remember that voters in 72 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:36,880 Speaker 5: New Hampshire, despite their being campaigns are going on, are 73 00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 5: just really making up their minds right now. Exit polls 74 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 5: have shown historically that upwards of forty five percent make 75 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 5: up their minds over the final weekend of the race, 76 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 5: and upward to fifteen to twenty percent make them their 77 00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:51,760 Speaker 5: mind on election day. So he's I think he's seen 78 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 5: that he doesn't really have an avenue in New Hampshire 79 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 5: because of that hard ceiling of unfavorability. He certainly doesn't 80 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 5: have any capacity of doing well on Iowa or South Carolina. 81 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 5: The next race or even Michigan. So he had to 82 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 5: do well in New Hampshire or get out, and I 83 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 5: think he read the cards and said it's better to 84 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 5: get out before I lose more money in this game. 85 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 2: So is this advantage Nikki Haley? I referenced your poll 86 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 2: from earlier as we consider second choices, sixty five percent 87 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:21,119 Speaker 2: of Christy's supporters said that they would turn to Nikki 88 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 2: Haley if he was not on the ballot. Is that 89 00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:26,279 Speaker 2: a number you expect to see turnover? 90 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 5: It's kind of hard to say, because you know, again 91 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:31,279 Speaker 5: there's a week and a half left, and we'll see 92 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 5: what happens in Iowa if de Santis stays in, if 93 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 5: the Santis drops out, how big or not Trump's margin 94 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:40,680 Speaker 5: is in Iowa. So there's still some things to happen 95 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:43,800 Speaker 5: between now and election day. But if you think overall 96 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 5: about the Republican electorate, we've had a consistently forty percent 97 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:53,040 Speaker 5: or so people in New Hampshire that have been behind Trump, 98 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:56,400 Speaker 5: and we're seeing eighty to ninety percent of them say 99 00:04:56,440 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 5: they definitely decided who they're going to support. So I 100 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 5: think Trump's got his base there, but I don't think 101 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:05,400 Speaker 5: it's going to grow that much because people know who 102 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 5: Trump is. They're not waiting for anything new to hear 103 00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 5: from Trump that's going to make them lean his way. 104 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:13,560 Speaker 5: So we have about forty percent for Trump, about sixty 105 00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:17,359 Speaker 5: percent who aren't necessarily for Trump, and those are the 106 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,679 Speaker 5: voters that all of the other Republican candidates were going after. 107 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 5: Haley seems to have done that. I think the best 108 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:27,840 Speaker 5: job of threading the needle of not attacking Trump and 109 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:31,039 Speaker 5: so as not to tick off the MAGA base, but 110 00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:34,480 Speaker 5: also to let people know that she's the alternative Frump. 111 00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 5: And I think that Christy dropping out. His supporters aren't 112 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 5: necessarily you know, big Hailey supporters, but they know that 113 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 5: they're not Trump supporters, and they're going for the person 114 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:50,360 Speaker 5: who's not Trump, and I think that right now is Haley. 115 00:05:50,400 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 5: And that's why she's likely to pick up most of 116 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:54,719 Speaker 5: the support that Christy has well. 117 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:56,560 Speaker 2: And that would be a pretty big deal. If your 118 00:05:56,600 --> 00:06:00,279 Speaker 2: poll has Donald Trump just single digits in this bred, 119 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:03,280 Speaker 2: she's within single digits of Trump. You add the Christy vote, 120 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:06,200 Speaker 2: he's at double digits, and we've got a real race here. 121 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 5: Andrew, I think so. I think that again, it's important 122 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:12,360 Speaker 5: to remember voters in New Hampshire don't make up their 123 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 5: minds until the end. They're really just starting to pay attention. 124 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:17,560 Speaker 5: Now you've got that block of people that don't like Trump, 125 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 5: that are and probably aren't that politically engaged, who are 126 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:25,200 Speaker 5: really starting to pay attention to this race. So she's 127 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 5: peaking at the right time, and I think she could 128 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:29,599 Speaker 5: make it close. This has happened before, if you go 129 00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:32,839 Speaker 5: back to two thousand and eight with John McCain who 130 00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:35,760 Speaker 5: peaked at the very end of that race. Hillary Clinton 131 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:38,560 Speaker 5: coming back and peaking in New Hampshire in two thousand 132 00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:40,960 Speaker 5: and eight on the Democratic side as well, this is 133 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 5: not an unusual sort of Phenomenon the flip side of 134 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:48,279 Speaker 5: that is Ron DeSantis a year ago was leading this race. 135 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:50,720 Speaker 5: He had forty three percent and Trump had thirty percent. 136 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:54,160 Speaker 5: He peaked way too early before the race really got 137 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 5: engaged in before voters were paying attention. 138 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:58,920 Speaker 2: You'll be glad to know Rick Davis, who's on our 139 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:01,360 Speaker 2: panel every day, will be following you and has some 140 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:06,680 Speaker 2: pretty interesting insights having managed John McCain's campaign in New Hampshire. 141 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 2: Andrew remember the crying moment, the emotional moment that Hillary 142 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,600 Speaker 2: Clinton had you're referring to her kind of last minute 143 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:16,840 Speaker 2: turn to her benefit in New Hampshire. Does Nicki Haley, 144 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:18,720 Speaker 2: or by the way, we haven't even mentioned a guy 145 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 2: named Ron DeSantis, do they need a moment like that 146 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:24,080 Speaker 2: because they're going to come flying in New Hampshire the 147 00:07:24,120 --> 00:07:26,720 Speaker 2: minute the Iowa caucuses are over, and they'll have a 148 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:29,480 Speaker 2: week to make a difference, basically to your point with 149 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 2: those late decision makers in New Hampshire. Does Nicki Haley 150 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:36,000 Speaker 2: need to have a human moment, have a catalyst like 151 00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 2: that that'll get people's attention. 152 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 5: I don't really think so. If you remember that two 153 00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:46,880 Speaker 5: thousand and eight cycle with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, 154 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 5: there were already only two candidates, Obama had come off 155 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 5: of a win in Iowa, and there were only five 156 00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:56,400 Speaker 5: days between Iowa and New Hampshire. The things that happened 157 00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:59,080 Speaker 5: with Clinton were that there was that debate on Saturday 158 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 5: night where the moderator asked her why she was unlikable 159 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 5: and how did that make her feel? And she said 160 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:08,840 Speaker 5: hurt her feelings and Barack Obama said snarkily, mail you're 161 00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:12,679 Speaker 5: likable enough, Hillary, And then she had that humanizing crying 162 00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 5: moment there and it really galvanized support from republic from 163 00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 5: Democratic women to say, oh yeah, she is being picked 164 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:23,160 Speaker 5: on again. This is sexism again in the party. Let's 165 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 5: go for Hillary here. I don't think we have that 166 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 5: dynamic going on this time around. It's really Trump versus 167 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:30,600 Speaker 5: the non Trump, and I think Iowa is going to 168 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:32,880 Speaker 5: make the decision for DeSantis as to whether he's in 169 00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:36,680 Speaker 5: the race or not after Iowa, because his polling numbers 170 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:39,839 Speaker 5: here in New Hampshire declining. He's now in fourth place 171 00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 5: in New Hampshire even behind Vivek Ramaswami or is a 172 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 5: good place excuse me. He's behind Vivek here, So he 173 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:49,760 Speaker 5: doesn't have much of an opportunity in New Hampshire. I 174 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:52,960 Speaker 5: think to grow his support, it's been declining for a year. 175 00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:57,600 Speaker 5: And if he doesn't make an extraordinary showing in Iowa, 176 00:08:57,880 --> 00:08:59,719 Speaker 5: I think his campaign has to make the decision to 177 00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:00,480 Speaker 5: pull the plug. 178 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 1: Wow. 179 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 2: You do wonder in the next week how much of 180 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:06,240 Speaker 2: this field is going to clear out. Emerson is out 181 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:08,600 Speaker 2: with new numbers today as well. As we spend time 182 00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:12,160 Speaker 2: with Andrew Smith at the University of New Hampshire. It 183 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 2: looks in New Hampshire like this in this poll, at 184 00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 2: least Trump forty four, Haley twenty eight, and then Christy twelve. 185 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 2: DeSantis is in single digits. How much noise is in 186 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:24,880 Speaker 2: these numbers. You've made the point several times Andy that 187 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:27,160 Speaker 2: people make this decision late in New Hampshire, and you've 188 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:31,920 Speaker 2: got the unpredictable nature of forty percent of voters being independent. 189 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:34,040 Speaker 2: How much stock do you put in any of these 190 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:35,319 Speaker 2: polls of the week or so out. 191 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:39,000 Speaker 5: I've been doing pulling in the New Hampshire primary for 192 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 5: a long time, and historically polls have been wrong as 193 00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:44,040 Speaker 5: often as they've been right, because voters make up their 194 00:09:44,040 --> 00:09:46,840 Speaker 5: mind so late, because so many people tell us that 195 00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 5: they're going to vote but they actually don't turn out. 196 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 5: Is always the most difficult thing to estimate in any election, 197 00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:58,520 Speaker 5: but especially in a primary election. New Hampshire. We have 198 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 5: same day registration, so anywhere between ten and fifteen percent 199 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:04,800 Speaker 5: of the electorate or people that aren't even registered, and 200 00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:07,679 Speaker 5: those people are often missed by other polls who use 201 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 5: lists of voters who've been previously registered to vote in 202 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:13,720 Speaker 5: the state. There are a number of other methodological issues 203 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:17,600 Speaker 5: that make polls quite different in the state. So as 204 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 5: a polster I would tell anybody about primary polls, use 205 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:25,120 Speaker 5: them as a very fuzzy gauge of where the election 206 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:26,079 Speaker 5: is at any time. 207 00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:28,040 Speaker 2: I hope you're going to meet up with us when 208 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:30,600 Speaker 2: we're up there, or meet you in Manchester, right, I'm 209 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:33,720 Speaker 2: looking forward to it. Excellent, This is great Andrew Smith. 210 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:36,600 Speaker 2: He's the director of the Survey Center, University of New Hampshire. 211 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 2: A great conversation. Thank you for the insights, Andrew. Think 212 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:42,679 Speaker 2: about this conversation that day we go to vote in 213 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 2: New Hampshire. We'll see how much has changed in just 214 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:48,559 Speaker 2: this limited period of time. As we assemble our panel, 215 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 2: Rick Davis, the afore mentioned alongside Genie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors, 216 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 2: I'll start with you Rick, Since your name came up 217 00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:57,480 Speaker 2: a little while ago, you've had a little bit of 218 00:10:57,480 --> 00:10:59,680 Speaker 2: time to think about the impact of this Christy departure. 219 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 2: What is it mean for Nicki Haley? 220 00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:04,880 Speaker 6: Yeah, I think it's exactly what Andrews said. You know, 221 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:09,679 Speaker 6: the vast majority identify her as their second choice who 222 00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:13,640 Speaker 6: sit on Christy on the ballot yesterday? Remember too, that's 223 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:17,560 Speaker 6: with Christy in the race, right, So sixty five percent say, 224 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:21,440 Speaker 6: you know, if something else changes, we'd be willing to 225 00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 6: go and sit on Haley's ballot. Now that he's out 226 00:11:24,679 --> 00:11:27,400 Speaker 6: of the race, that number could go up. It's unlikely 227 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:31,840 Speaker 6: to go down because you know, the consideration is that 228 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 6: at the time he was still in the race. So 229 00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:37,480 Speaker 6: it's all upside for her. And I think definitely adds 230 00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 6: to the notion of momentum, which is even more important 231 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 6: than pulling in money right now, because New Hampshire is 232 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 6: a momentum state and as he said, you want to 233 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:47,840 Speaker 6: peek you know, next week. 234 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:52,120 Speaker 2: That's kind of leaving a scratch and ahs when it 235 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:54,080 Speaker 2: comes to the polls, right. I mean, this idea of 236 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:58,240 Speaker 2: momentum is abstract enough, genie that it's very difficult to quantify. 237 00:11:58,280 --> 00:12:00,000 Speaker 2: When I look at a UNH pole that shows True 238 00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:03,440 Speaker 2: ahead by single digits today, an Emerson poll he's ahead 239 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:05,080 Speaker 2: by what sixteen points? 240 00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:05,320 Speaker 7: Here? 241 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 2: USA today, Suffolk had him up by twenty Do any. 242 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:09,439 Speaker 1: Of them matter? 243 00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 8: No? 244 00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 7: I think Andrew is right, and it's you know, I 245 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 7: think people should listen to him when he says many 246 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:19,320 Speaker 7: voters in New Hampshire are just now starting to pay attention. 247 00:12:19,880 --> 00:12:22,840 Speaker 7: You know the news today about a dropout. I bet 248 00:12:22,920 --> 00:12:25,120 Speaker 7: you many people in New Hampshire are focused on Bill 249 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 7: Belichick rather than Chris Christy, to be honest, right, And 250 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:32,200 Speaker 7: so you know, the reality is is that while we 251 00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:34,800 Speaker 7: watch this day in and day out for voters, they 252 00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:37,199 Speaker 7: are just starting to pay attention. And I think this 253 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:41,000 Speaker 7: thing can move. That said to imagine that it moves 254 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:44,679 Speaker 7: twenty thirty points. And you know, when you look at 255 00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:46,960 Speaker 7: some of these polls that have Trump that much ahead, 256 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 7: that's hard to imagine. But anything can happen. So I 257 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 7: think a lot rides on what happens in Iowa and 258 00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:55,760 Speaker 7: the momentum Haley can get out of there, if any, 259 00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:58,400 Speaker 7: to move her into New Hampshire. I mean, that's really 260 00:12:58,440 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 7: her path forward. 261 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:03,240 Speaker 2: You heard the hot mic remarks at the beginning of 262 00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 2: our conversation. Here here's what he actually said on the 263 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:07,920 Speaker 2: microphone a few minutes later. 264 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:10,920 Speaker 4: Because I want to promise you this. I am going 265 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 4: to make sure that in no way do I enable 266 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:18,839 Speaker 4: Donald Trump to ever be president of the United States again. 267 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:23,200 Speaker 4: And that's more important than my own personal ambition. 268 00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:26,360 Speaker 2: Okay, that's great, but Rick, he says she's going to 269 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:29,280 Speaker 2: get smoked, which one does he believe. 270 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:34,800 Speaker 6: He's a politician, He doesn't believe anything he does what 271 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:37,320 Speaker 6: the pollsters tell him to do. Now, that's a very 272 00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 6: cynical view, but it's not too far off the marth. 273 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:42,960 Speaker 6: I mean, he's a lifelong Paul. I mean, you know 274 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:46,040 Speaker 6: what he says in public and what he thinks in private, 275 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 6: even off of a hot mic, you can't trust any 276 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 6: of it. It's obviously not in his interest to have 277 00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:54,360 Speaker 6: Donald Trump president again, because I have no doubt that 278 00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:56,840 Speaker 6: if Donald Trump's president, he will find some way to 279 00:13:56,880 --> 00:14:02,480 Speaker 6: go after legally Chris. So it's in his personal self interest, 280 00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:06,120 Speaker 6: professional self interest to see somebody else win. If he's 281 00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 6: cynical enough to get out of the race one day 282 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:11,319 Speaker 6: and hope it helps her and say at the same time, 283 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 6: you know she's a loser. It's that that's just who 284 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:16,400 Speaker 6: he is. There's a reason he's got so many negatives. 285 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:16,800 Speaker 1: I guess. 286 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you what Trump on the Fox News 287 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 2: last night says he's liking Chris Christy already a lot more. 288 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:24,600 Speaker 2: We'll walk you through the debate in the town hall 289 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 2: next with Rick and Jeannie. This is Bloomberg. 290 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:32,960 Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 291 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:36,880 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 292 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 1: tune in alf Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app. 293 00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:43,280 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 294 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 295 00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:51,080 Speaker 2: We were watching, so you didn't have to this split 296 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:53,960 Speaker 2: screen night. Did you see either of them, the final 297 00:14:54,040 --> 00:14:58,040 Speaker 2: Republican debate or the Trump town hall? You know, he 298 00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:01,360 Speaker 2: skipped them all, including last night, the last debate before 299 00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 2: Iowa to go on Fox News this time of counter 300 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 2: programming the whole thing, which you might suggest was a 301 00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 2: pretty good strategy after what we saw last evening on 302 00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 2: the stage on CNN Ron DeSantis, Nicki Haley boy not 303 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 2: fans of each other going for broke here, spending the 304 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:23,320 Speaker 2: first hour beating each other up, the second hour going 305 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 2: after Donald Trump and Nicky Haley did go there. On 306 00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:28,280 Speaker 2: the twenty twenty elections, said it out loud. 307 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:32,720 Speaker 8: That election Trump lost it, Biden won that election, and 308 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:35,560 Speaker 8: the idea that he's gone and carried this out forever 309 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 8: to the point that he's going to continue to say 310 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 8: these things to scare the American people are wrong. 311 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:43,640 Speaker 2: So reassembled our panel, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano, come along, 312 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:46,760 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributors. I'm sure you were both up late 313 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 2: going through the highlights and the low lights here. Why 314 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:51,200 Speaker 2: don't we start with the debate then we can move 315 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:55,480 Speaker 2: to Donald Trump's escapade last evening Geenie, Nicky Haley had 316 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:57,520 Speaker 2: an important moment there. I don't know what the ratings 317 00:15:57,560 --> 00:15:59,560 Speaker 2: look like or how many people may or may not 318 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:01,840 Speaker 2: have been influence, but to actually share the stage with 319 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:04,400 Speaker 2: Ron De Santis and go at it, that was probably 320 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 2: the chippiest debate that we have seen yet in the cycle. 321 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:08,520 Speaker 2: Did it make any difference? 322 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:12,960 Speaker 7: No, you know, the words that kept coming to my 323 00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:17,160 Speaker 7: mind were really aggravating. I mean, they both did fine. 324 00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:20,200 Speaker 7: All they did was fight with each other. I did 325 00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:23,240 Speaker 7: the split screen thing, and you had Trump there basically 326 00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 7: on an infomercial, very subdued, very calm, and then you 327 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:30,040 Speaker 7: had those two going at each other. You know, you 328 00:16:30,400 --> 00:16:33,160 Speaker 7: played that clip from Nikki Haley. She didn't really get 329 00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:36,080 Speaker 7: to the criticism of the faraway front runner until the 330 00:16:36,120 --> 00:16:37,480 Speaker 7: second half of the debate. 331 00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:38,080 Speaker 2: That's right. 332 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:40,920 Speaker 7: And you know, I don't know what you guys found, 333 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 7: but like this idea liar, liar pants on fire, you 334 00:16:44,000 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 7: know desantislies dot com. Anybody under the age of like, 335 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 7: you know, I don't know fifty. I felt like it 336 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 7: was like retro because nobody looks at websites like that anymore. 337 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 7: That was like in eight when Obama was running and 338 00:16:57,800 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 7: we were all applauding that they had a website for 339 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 7: their paign. You know, she didn't do anything really groundbreaking. 340 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:07,760 Speaker 7: She kept repeating that, and of course Ron DeSantis was fine, 341 00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:10,720 Speaker 7: but I don't think he made any headway. So I 342 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:13,719 Speaker 7: just thought the winner here was Donald Trump, as it 343 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:16,200 Speaker 7: has been throughout all of these debates. 344 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:19,639 Speaker 2: Well, I'll ask you both about Trump's performance here. How 345 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:24,480 Speaker 2: about Ron Desantish last night? Rick, it was interesting watching 346 00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:26,760 Speaker 2: him go through the motions one on one. That's not 347 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:29,440 Speaker 2: something that we've had a chance to witness yet, very 348 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:32,000 Speaker 2: rehearsed in a lot of cases, going for the money line, 349 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:33,840 Speaker 2: trying to get the applause line, and so forth. He 350 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:37,400 Speaker 2: even fell into his remarks apparently like kind of had 351 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:40,920 Speaker 2: a brain wave and thought he was debating Gavin Newsom 352 00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:43,880 Speaker 2: at one point, as he called her the governor of California. 353 00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:45,920 Speaker 9: Listen to this back and forth in the state of Florida, 354 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:48,679 Speaker 9: were ranked number one for economy of all fifty states 355 00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 9: by SANBC number one education. She was ranked number fifty 356 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:56,159 Speaker 9: in education when she was governor of California. 357 00:17:56,320 --> 00:17:59,199 Speaker 2: Well, I think that that was actually from his prep 358 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:01,959 Speaker 2: from the Haven New some debate on Fox Rick, how 359 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 2: did he do? 360 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:07,440 Speaker 6: Yeah, Look, I mean it was really rehearsed, right, I mean, 361 00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:10,399 Speaker 6: like I think the easiest night where the moderator is 362 00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:13,560 Speaker 6: Jake Tapper and and they just they just stood back 363 00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:17,040 Speaker 6: and let these guys go at it, and it was 364 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 6: really all just talking points. I mean, I don't think 365 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:22,560 Speaker 6: I've ever heard a debate where the word liar was 366 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:27,440 Speaker 6: used in every single sentence and a little exhausting. I mean, 367 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:31,280 Speaker 6: like I kind of give tropes to Donald Trump because like, 368 00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:34,000 Speaker 6: at least he only had an hour town hall and 369 00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:36,880 Speaker 6: you didn't have to suffer through another sixty minutes. I mean, 370 00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:39,560 Speaker 6: like one hundred and twenty minutes of that stuff was 371 00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:41,919 Speaker 6: more than any voter in any state will. 372 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:42,720 Speaker 5: Ever want to watch. 373 00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:46,399 Speaker 6: So you're right, no telling who watched how they were 374 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:50,920 Speaker 6: impacted by that. They didn't distinguish themselves poorly. They look 375 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:54,600 Speaker 6: like professional politicians, you know, beating each other up. I 376 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:57,520 Speaker 6: don't know how that helps either one of them in Iowa. 377 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:01,639 Speaker 6: And you know, I'm not exactly sure how any of 378 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:03,840 Speaker 6: that helps Nicki Haley in New Hampshire since that's your 379 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:07,800 Speaker 6: top focus. But the bottom line is, I agree with Geenie, 380 00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:09,560 Speaker 6: you know, good night for Donald Trump. 381 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:12,360 Speaker 2: So it was a tree that fell in the political 382 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:16,320 Speaker 2: woods on CNN, on Fox, and I am assuming that 383 00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:18,600 Speaker 2: a lot more Republicans saw that. Rick to your point, 384 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 2: that would be the viewing habit. It was an attempt 385 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:25,240 Speaker 2: at normalization, at least in my view linees like I'm 386 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:28,320 Speaker 2: not going to have time for retribution or this one. 387 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:30,240 Speaker 2: On the dictator, here's Trump. 388 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:34,679 Speaker 10: I said, I'm going to be a dictator for one day. 389 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:38,440 Speaker 10: We're going to do two things. The border, we're gonna 390 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:41,280 Speaker 10: make it so tight you can't get in unless you 391 00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:45,240 Speaker 10: come in legally. And the other is energy. We're gonna drill, baby, drill. 392 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:48,040 Speaker 10: After that, I'm not going to be a dictator. After that, 393 00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:49,560 Speaker 10: I'm not going to be a dictator. 394 00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:51,240 Speaker 2: So that's what had been said. 395 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:53,640 Speaker 10: So you were pressing no, no, and Fortas picks it up. 396 00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:56,199 Speaker 10: So I said, I'm going to be a dictator for 397 00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:58,720 Speaker 10: one day. They cut it, they go I'm going to 398 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:02,320 Speaker 10: be a dictator. They cut the rest of the sentence. Now, no, no, 399 00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:04,679 Speaker 10: i am not going to be a dictator. I'm going 400 00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:09,160 Speaker 10: to manage like we did. We were so successful. 401 00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:13,359 Speaker 2: I Am not going to be a dictator. Rick interesting 402 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:17,080 Speaker 2: here as Donald Trump is apparently listening to his advisors. 403 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:20,960 Speaker 6: Yeah, my guess is they pulled that and it was 404 00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:24,080 Speaker 6: not a pretty picture to voters. Regardless of whether it's 405 00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:28,159 Speaker 6: one day or you know, every day your presidency, American 406 00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:32,840 Speaker 6: voters don't want a dictator at all. And so walking 407 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:35,080 Speaker 6: that back the way he did, I'm not exactly sure 408 00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 6: it was very convincing. First of all, I said, yeah, 409 00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:40,040 Speaker 6: I'm definitely going to be a dictator for the first day, 410 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:42,360 Speaker 6: but then again, I'm not going to be a dictator. 411 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 6: And he blames the media, which, by the way, to 412 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:48,080 Speaker 6: most Fox viewers, they don't consider Fox the media. They 413 00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:51,359 Speaker 6: consider that the truth teller. And you know, maybe that 414 00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:53,639 Speaker 6: works for the crowd that was tuned in, But what 415 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:55,760 Speaker 6: a cake walk for Donald Trump. I mean, you know, 416 00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:59,080 Speaker 6: the people asking questions, each one started out with how 417 00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:01,119 Speaker 6: great Donald Trump is. And by the way, I'm almost 418 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:02,760 Speaker 6: embarrassed I have to ask you a question. 419 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:06,359 Speaker 2: But here you go, well, you know what issue they 420 00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:10,119 Speaker 2: did get into. Really interesting, Genie. This is a recurring 421 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:12,640 Speaker 2: theme this week, and it's a theme that started here 422 00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg, I dare say, because the idea of being 423 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:22,000 Speaker 2: afraid to talk about entitlements has been a big concern 424 00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:24,040 Speaker 2: here in Washington, you know, as we nibble around the 425 00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:27,520 Speaker 2: edges of the budget, and our interview with Nicky Haley 426 00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:30,200 Speaker 2: has been coming back again and again and again, and 427 00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:33,720 Speaker 2: her stand on potentially raising the retirement age was referenced 428 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:35,159 Speaker 2: in both of those shows. 429 00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 1: Last night. 430 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,080 Speaker 2: It came up by Ron DeSantis in the debate, and 431 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,840 Speaker 2: Donald Trump brought it up in the Fox Town Hall. 432 00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:41,960 Speaker 2: Let's listen to what he said. 433 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:45,840 Speaker 10: DeSantis wants to cut social Security and Medicare. Nicky Haley 434 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:48,880 Speaker 10: wants to cut Social Security and medica Nicky Haley wanted 435 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:53,600 Speaker 10: to raise the age, okay, from sixty five to seventy four? 436 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:54,320 Speaker 5: Seventy four? 437 00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:56,600 Speaker 2: Did that come from? That was from our interview with 438 00:21:56,680 --> 00:21:58,960 Speaker 2: Nicky Haley on the twenty fourth of August. To the 439 00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,720 Speaker 2: point now where not only was Donald Trump ready for 440 00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:04,560 Speaker 2: that line of attack last night, Rick and Jeanie, but 441 00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:07,800 Speaker 2: it has apparently been put into an official ad a 442 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 2: Trump campaign ad that dropped this morning in New Hampshire 443 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:11,360 Speaker 2: here he. 444 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:17,359 Speaker 1: Is was to secure retirement. Nicky Haley's plan ends. 445 00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:23,200 Speaker 2: That social Security Medicare, How would you manage the entitlementsged? Okay, 446 00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:27,600 Speaker 2: So from our interview here on Bloomberg, Genie, does that 447 00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:31,159 Speaker 2: mean that this in fact will be a major issue 448 00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:32,960 Speaker 2: on the campaign trail? We're going to forget about it 449 00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:33,879 Speaker 2: after the primaries. 450 00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:36,960 Speaker 7: Whose boys did we just hear on that ad? 451 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:38,720 Speaker 2: Was that you jail? Yeah, I'm afraid. 452 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:42,480 Speaker 7: I'm glad to hear that. Trump and his team and 453 00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:46,240 Speaker 7: everybody is listening, and it's a really important issue. And 454 00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:48,240 Speaker 7: we heard it to your point in the town hall. 455 00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:50,960 Speaker 7: We heard it in the debate. There was an extended 456 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 7: discussion by DeSantis and Nicky Haley arguing back and forth 457 00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:57,720 Speaker 7: about the very issue that you asked her about way 458 00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:00,159 Speaker 7: back in August. And now they have her on tape, 459 00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:04,720 Speaker 7: and you know, economically, she is probably right to raise this. 460 00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:08,440 Speaker 7: We do have an enormous problem, but everybody from DeSantis 461 00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:11,760 Speaker 7: to Trump to Biden knows politically it's a loser, and 462 00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 7: so that's why they keep bringing it up. And of 463 00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:16,960 Speaker 7: course I think we will hear Joe Biden bring it 464 00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:20,000 Speaker 7: up as well. If potentially, and it's a big if 465 00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:22,919 Speaker 7: you were to see somebody like Nicky Haley, you know, 466 00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,840 Speaker 7: win the nomination. I mean, this is Rick Scott all 467 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,840 Speaker 7: over again, and they are just waiting to on her 468 00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:29,280 Speaker 7: for it. 469 00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:33,080 Speaker 2: Rick Scott all over again. Rick Davis makes me think 470 00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:35,160 Speaker 2: that this will not be an issue on the campaign 471 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:36,920 Speaker 2: trail when this goes to the general. 472 00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:43,200 Speaker 6: Yeah, you could just tell that Nicky Haley really tried 473 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:46,600 Speaker 6: to walk it back, conditioning, conditioning, the comments she made 474 00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 6: to you in that interview. My guess is we're going 475 00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 6: to see you in other campaign commercials besides just Donald 476 00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,879 Speaker 6: Trump's before the end of this. But that's only if 477 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,640 Speaker 6: Nicky has any life after New Hampshire. So let's hold 478 00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:00,639 Speaker 6: our breath and hope that Joe becomes an issue in 479 00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:02,000 Speaker 6: the general election campaign. 480 00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:05,199 Speaker 2: God forbid, we don't want to become the story. Rick 481 00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:07,960 Speaker 2: Davis and Genie Shanz no great analysis, and they're going 482 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:10,720 Speaker 2: to be back with us after we tackle some issues 483 00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:13,440 Speaker 2: with Jared Bernstein. I've been looking forward to this conversation 484 00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:15,520 Speaker 2: as well because we've got important news today and I 485 00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:17,800 Speaker 2: haven't even gotten around to yet. And that's consumer prices. 486 00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:19,640 Speaker 2: You've been hearing about it throughout the day on Bloomberg 487 00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:23,240 Speaker 2: CPI day with data showing inflation up more than expected, 488 00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,280 Speaker 2: and we want the view from the White House. As 489 00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,000 Speaker 2: always in a chance to spend some time with Jared Bernstein, 490 00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:32,680 Speaker 2: of course, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors. 491 00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:34,480 Speaker 2: He's with us as you can see on YouTube from 492 00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,320 Speaker 2: the White House North Lawn. Mister chairman, it's great to 493 00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:39,520 Speaker 2: see you. Before I ask you about CPI, I wonder 494 00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:42,919 Speaker 2: your thoughts on this conversation about the retirement age, about 495 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:47,600 Speaker 2: managing potentially reforming entitlement, social Security and Medicare. Is that 496 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,200 Speaker 2: something that the administration plans to weigh into. 497 00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:54,360 Speaker 11: I think we already have in the sense that our 498 00:24:54,400 --> 00:25:00,880 Speaker 11: budget continuously extends the solvency, Medicare, social Security. These are 499 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:06,040 Speaker 11: critical programs that this prison has not only pledged to protect, 500 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:10,080 Speaker 11: but has continuously provided proposals to do so. Now, look, 501 00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:12,800 Speaker 11: I mean one way to do this is to continue 502 00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:16,000 Speaker 11: to pursue his fair taxation agenda. Not a dime of 503 00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:20,480 Speaker 11: higher taxes under four hundred thousand AGI, but he has 504 00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:24,399 Speaker 11: a robust agenda to enforce fair taxation. Part of that 505 00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:28,359 Speaker 11: by the way is blocking people from millionaires and billionaires 506 00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:31,800 Speaker 11: from evading taxes by making sure that the IRS is 507 00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:35,639 Speaker 11: adequately funded. And what have the Republicans done. They've actively 508 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:38,600 Speaker 11: worked against that funding, tried to cut it, and in 509 00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:42,840 Speaker 11: fact have extracted reductions there in some of these budget deals. 510 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:46,800 Speaker 11: That's basically a shadow tax cut for tax evators. And 511 00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,359 Speaker 11: that's not okay for wealthy tax evators, and that's not 512 00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:50,440 Speaker 11: okay with this president. 513 00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:52,920 Speaker 2: At some point, though, the retirement age is going to 514 00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:55,160 Speaker 2: have to be lifted, Jared, isn't it. We're living longer. 515 00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:56,719 Speaker 2: It's just a different world now. 516 00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:04,240 Speaker 11: Look, social Security is such an essentially important program for 517 00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:07,880 Speaker 11: our seniors, and it is one of the most effective, 518 00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:10,919 Speaker 11: efficient programs we have. We're going to continue to protect it, 519 00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,520 Speaker 11: to bolster it, and to make sure it is there 520 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:14,720 Speaker 11: for generations to come. 521 00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:17,239 Speaker 2: Maybe you'll end up in a Trump ad as well. 522 00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:17,679 Speaker 1: Jared. 523 00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 2: I wonder on this CPI day, how are you feeling. 524 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:24,320 Speaker 2: I'm looking at the headlines here. US inflation accelerates, tempering 525 00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:27,119 Speaker 2: case for Fed to cut rates. US inflation picks up 526 00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:31,040 Speaker 2: as goods prices halt month's long decline. I could keep going. 527 00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:35,440 Speaker 2: Here is the moral of the story that this matter 528 00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:38,040 Speaker 2: of inflation, the trajectory does not in fact move in 529 00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:40,359 Speaker 2: a straight line. Because we were talking about goldilocks a 530 00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:42,680 Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago, jareded, how do we decipher this one? 531 00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:46,560 Speaker 11: Yeah, that's exactly the right way to tee that up. 532 00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:49,800 Speaker 11: Any month can bump one way or the other. And 533 00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:53,399 Speaker 11: I know, Joe, I've emphasized this in our discussions. We 534 00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,680 Speaker 11: at the Council of Economic Advisors make a point out 535 00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:59,640 Speaker 11: of never over emphasizing a particular month. And in fact, 536 00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:01,959 Speaker 11: by the way, if you look at the pace of 537 00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:05,960 Speaker 11: a headline CPI inflation over the past three months annualize, 538 00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:09,480 Speaker 11: it's still one point eight percent, and that's because the 539 00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,880 Speaker 11: last three months were zero point one point three. So 540 00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:15,960 Speaker 11: do the math and you get that kind of underlying 541 00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:19,640 Speaker 11: trend remains the friend of those who want to see 542 00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:23,439 Speaker 11: inflation continues to come down. You mentioned goods prices. I 543 00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:26,560 Speaker 11: think the unsnarling supply chains is very much baked in 544 00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 11: the cake, and we saw goods prices continue to be 545 00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:32,640 Speaker 11: very low. So look, I mean inflation, core inflation very 546 00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,919 Speaker 11: important to the FED. Core inflation of course hit expectations. 547 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,800 Speaker 11: The point three was expected. Point three was delivered. So 548 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:44,640 Speaker 11: we see that prices continuing to ease, job market remaining strong, 549 00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:48,560 Speaker 11: and the combination of those two delivering real wage gains, 550 00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:51,800 Speaker 11: which we also learned about this morning. And that's a trend, 551 00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:53,840 Speaker 11: not a blip. We've seen real wages up about a 552 00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:56,520 Speaker 11: percent over the past year, and they've been rising now 553 00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:59,320 Speaker 11: for a while, very important to our working families. 554 00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:02,399 Speaker 2: I've talked before as well, Jared about the last mile 555 00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:04,680 Speaker 2: that it's in fact, you know, it's that last ten 556 00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,479 Speaker 2: pounds that are so hard to lose. Here are we 557 00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:10,960 Speaker 2: going into the most difficult part of this inflation battle. 558 00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:13,639 Speaker 11: I mean, I think we'll have to see. I certainly 559 00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:17,800 Speaker 11: understand those arguments. I mean, one question there is is 560 00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:21,560 Speaker 11: there more room to run on the economy supply side. 561 00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:26,359 Speaker 11: Can we continue to improve supply chains and can we 562 00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:30,520 Speaker 11: continue to see labor supply increase, especially among prime age workers. 563 00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:32,919 Speaker 11: And I think the answer to both of those is yes. 564 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,080 Speaker 11: So I'm not ready to sign up for you know, 565 00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:38,560 Speaker 11: this last mile argument, though it's something we're of course 566 00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:40,440 Speaker 11: going to be keeping a close eye on. 567 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:43,800 Speaker 2: Okay, that's fascinating. Do you worry about the impact of 568 00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:46,680 Speaker 2: what's going on on the red seat Jared, you've referred 569 00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,080 Speaker 2: to supply chains and goods prices here, and we're looking 570 00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:52,080 Speaker 2: at these massive tankers going all the way around Africa 571 00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:54,600 Speaker 2: because of this security threat at the moment. Is that 572 00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:56,120 Speaker 2: going to reach consumers at some point? 573 00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:00,320 Speaker 11: Again, this is something that whether it's our national security 574 00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:06,000 Speaker 11: our economic team monitoring extremely closely. Operation Prosperity, as you know, 575 00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:10,640 Speaker 11: is a coalition effort in effect to help escort ships 576 00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:13,640 Speaker 11: and keep commerce going in the region. Now, I think 577 00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:16,120 Speaker 11: the important thing there is to just cut right to 578 00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:19,240 Speaker 11: the punchline and look at the impact on gas prices. 579 00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:22,000 Speaker 11: At least thus far, it's been a very limited impact. 580 00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:24,560 Speaker 11: I woke up this morning and the national gas price 581 00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:26,960 Speaker 11: was three dollars and eight cents a gallon. It was 582 00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:30,360 Speaker 11: below three dollars in thirty states across the land. And 583 00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,600 Speaker 11: remember in June of twenty two that price peaked at 584 00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:35,960 Speaker 11: north of five dollars a gallon. So that's been very 585 00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:39,560 Speaker 11: welcome to American consumers at the pump. It's also helping 586 00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:43,440 Speaker 11: to keep consumer spending strong, and that's been at the 587 00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:46,440 Speaker 11: core of our recovery. So limited impact thus far, but 588 00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:48,320 Speaker 11: very much of course on the watch list. 589 00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:50,720 Speaker 2: I'm spending time with Jared Bernstein, chair of the White 590 00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:54,480 Speaker 2: House Council of Economic Advisors, here on Bloomberg. I'm sure 591 00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:56,840 Speaker 2: you're dialed in on this potential for a tax deal 592 00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:58,920 Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill. Jared, I'm kind of amazed that we're 593 00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:02,320 Speaker 2: even having this converse right now when we're not even 594 00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:05,320 Speaker 2: sure if we can fund the government, or dealing with 595 00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:07,440 Speaker 2: the border, or so many other issues that we could 596 00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:10,360 Speaker 2: talk about. But apparently we are on the verge of 597 00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:14,520 Speaker 2: a deal between the Democratic led Senate and the Republican 598 00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:19,440 Speaker 2: Ledhouse that would restore the child tax the enhanced child 599 00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:24,000 Speaker 2: tax credit, in exchange for more friendly business taxes. I 600 00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:26,920 Speaker 2: wonder if the White House is in favor of this, 601 00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:29,520 Speaker 2: if you have a sense of the contours of what 602 00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:31,720 Speaker 2: the economic impact of that might look like. 603 00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:36,440 Speaker 11: Well, I think it's a really important practice not for 604 00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:39,280 Speaker 11: the White House to comment until the President goes first 605 00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:42,200 Speaker 11: when it comes to ongoing negotiation. So I'm not going 606 00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:44,480 Speaker 11: to give you a White House readout. What I will 607 00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:51,080 Speaker 11: say is that President Biden has consistently supported a child 608 00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:53,640 Speaker 11: tax credit expansion, much like the one he put in 609 00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,560 Speaker 11: place in the Rescue Plan. Now he's talked about the 610 00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:59,360 Speaker 11: importance of paying for that. And again that takes us 611 00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:02,960 Speaker 11: back to a tax agenda that injects a significant fairness 612 00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:05,800 Speaker 11: into the code, particularly for those at the top of 613 00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:08,480 Speaker 11: the scale, and particularly for those who want to evade 614 00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:11,600 Speaker 11: taxes by giving the irs the resources it needs. But look, 615 00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,800 Speaker 11: the child tax credit reduced child poverty in half, and 616 00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:17,720 Speaker 11: then it expired and child poverty went way back up. 617 00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:20,040 Speaker 11: It is one of the greatest investments we can make 618 00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:23,480 Speaker 11: in this nation to have as low a child poverty 619 00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:26,959 Speaker 11: rate as possible. And what we learned from earlier versions 620 00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,479 Speaker 11: of that debate the numbers I just cited, is that 621 00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:33,760 Speaker 11: the child poverty rate is a policy decision, and our 622 00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:36,440 Speaker 11: decision is to try to keep that as low as possible, 623 00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:39,160 Speaker 11: and that certainly connects to a robust CTC. 624 00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:42,240 Speaker 2: Well, there was a lot of concern about the expiration, 625 00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:46,760 Speaker 2: of course, the Child's tax Credit. We talked a lot 626 00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:49,400 Speaker 2: about as well, the expansion of covid ERA funding for 627 00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:53,280 Speaker 2: child care programs, the childcare cliff they called it. We 628 00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:56,560 Speaker 2: went over that cliff, Jared, and I wonder if the 629 00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:58,800 Speaker 2: landing has not been as hard. Forgive me if I'm 630 00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:01,440 Speaker 2: using the wrong expression here is some had feared. 631 00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:06,640 Speaker 11: Well, maybe I would probably hone the expression a little 632 00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:09,120 Speaker 11: in the following way. Just the way that was constructed, 633 00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:11,479 Speaker 11: it was more of a phase down than a cliff. 634 00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:17,800 Speaker 11: But look, the bottom line is still relevant. We really 635 00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:20,520 Speaker 11: want to make sure that anyone who wants to join 636 00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:23,680 Speaker 11: this labor market and work the desired number of hours 637 00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,080 Speaker 11: and weeks they want ought to be able to do so. 638 00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:29,840 Speaker 11: And especially for caretakers who are of course disproportionately women, 639 00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:35,440 Speaker 11: that means adequate access to affordable childcare. I would call this, 640 00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:38,200 Speaker 11: In fact, President Biden would call this one of our 641 00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:41,800 Speaker 11: more important pieces of unfinished business as we go forward. Again, 642 00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:44,800 Speaker 11: we have robust proposals in our budget, fully paid for, 643 00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:50,120 Speaker 11: to expand access to affordable childcare. And it's not just 644 00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:52,720 Speaker 11: an important micro issue for people at the kitchen table, 645 00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:55,360 Speaker 11: which is what this president cares so much about. It's 646 00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:58,920 Speaker 11: also helpful to the macro economy by boosting labor supply. 647 00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:02,040 Speaker 2: Well, this is remarkably happening at the same time, as 648 00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:05,120 Speaker 2: I mentioned, we talk about government funding. Next Friday would 649 00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:07,240 Speaker 2: be the beginning of a shutdown if this doesn't work out, 650 00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:09,760 Speaker 2: And I know that Speaker Johnson is under immense pressure 651 00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:13,400 Speaker 2: from his right flank in the House to not do 652 00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:16,360 Speaker 2: a continuing resolution. Jared, I'm just wondering if you see 653 00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:19,240 Speaker 2: the odds of a shutdown rising and what economic impact 654 00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:19,680 Speaker 2: that would have. 655 00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:22,920 Speaker 11: I think it's really hard to put odds on these things, 656 00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:25,160 Speaker 11: but I think the people who watch it closely took 657 00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:28,080 Speaker 11: those odds pretty far down when it looked like there was, 658 00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:33,520 Speaker 11: if not an agreement a proposal from Speaker Johnson on 659 00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:37,040 Speaker 11: the top lines for the appropriation bills. Let me put 660 00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:40,000 Speaker 11: it this way again, these are ongoing negotiations that I 661 00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:43,239 Speaker 11: don't want to lean into from this particular podium. But 662 00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:44,680 Speaker 11: what I will say is this, you and I have 663 00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:48,040 Speaker 11: just had a good, robust discussion of all the things 664 00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:52,560 Speaker 11: that are going right in the US economy, low unemployment, inflation, easing, 665 00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:57,440 Speaker 11: real wage gains, actual cost reductions in key areas of 666 00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:02,000 Speaker 11: consumer spending, whether it's gas, milk, red eggs, airfares, TVs, 667 00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:05,560 Speaker 11: and so on. The idea that we would want to 668 00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:08,880 Speaker 11: kick the ball in our own goal with an unnecessary 669 00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:14,160 Speaker 11: government shutdown when the when, when I think majorities on 670 00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:19,600 Speaker 11: both sides want to avoid that is absolutely counterindicated right now. 671 00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:23,279 Speaker 11: So I just am urging anyone who is in that 672 00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:28,560 Speaker 11: in those negotiations to uh to avoid that that possibility. 673 00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:30,360 Speaker 2: It's like a recurring nightmare. 674 00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:31,320 Speaker 1: Jared. 675 00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:34,239 Speaker 2: It's always a good and robust conversation with the Chair 676 00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:37,400 Speaker 2: of the White House Counsel of Economic Advisors, Jared Bernstein. 677 00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:39,600 Speaker 2: Great to see you, sir. Thanks for joining us always. 678 00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:45,399 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 679 00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:48,600 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 680 00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:51,759 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listening on 681 00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:53,799 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 682 00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:56,960 Speaker 2: Welcome to our two of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe 683 00:34:57,000 --> 00:35:02,800 Speaker 2: Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines. How many days to Iowa? Five 684 00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:06,880 Speaker 2: four four and we've got nine days to a possible shutdown. 685 00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:08,839 Speaker 2: I'm still really compelled by how all of these are 686 00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:12,560 Speaker 2: going to smash together over the next week. Iowa shutdown 687 00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:17,120 Speaker 2: New Hampshire or is it Iowa motion to vacate New Hampshire. 688 00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:17,840 Speaker 12: Good question. 689 00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:20,759 Speaker 2: We're going to be in early States while some wild 690 00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:21,640 Speaker 2: stuff is going on. 691 00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:22,400 Speaker 5: Here in Washington. 692 00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:26,440 Speaker 12: Wild indeed, I mean it's already happening. It's already wild. 693 00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:28,920 Speaker 12: It could potentially get more wild as we get closer 694 00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:31,360 Speaker 12: and closer to a deadline. That is what tends to happen. 695 00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:35,040 Speaker 12: The clock starts ticking louder and faster. But if you're 696 00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:38,480 Speaker 12: Mike Johnson right now probably figuring out how you can 697 00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:41,759 Speaker 12: fund the government and keep your job, or is that 698 00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:45,440 Speaker 12: simply not possible? These are two binary outcomes, or. 699 00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:47,880 Speaker 2: Is your name just still Kevin, because that's what it 700 00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:51,040 Speaker 2: feels like. We'll talk more about that with Kyle ahead, 701 00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:54,479 Speaker 2: because you might have seen Chuck Schumer is not waiting around. 702 00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:59,239 Speaker 2: He's starting the cloture process on a cr today. So 703 00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:02,239 Speaker 2: we'll talk a little more about potentially being jammed by 704 00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:05,759 Speaker 2: the Senate as we all try to recover from our 705 00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:10,160 Speaker 2: debate hangover. Was that an exercise in futility? I don't 706 00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:12,160 Speaker 2: know if we've seen ratings yet, but I just don't 707 00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:14,040 Speaker 2: feel like that moved the needle for a lot of people. 708 00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:16,200 Speaker 12: Well, we heard a lot of what we had already 709 00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:18,799 Speaker 12: heard from Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis to a large part, 710 00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:21,480 Speaker 12: at least when it comes to contrasting them with the 711 00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:24,040 Speaker 12: current front runner, Donald Trump. I think the question is 712 00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:26,200 Speaker 12: did one of them succeed in getting farther ahead of 713 00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:29,879 Speaker 12: the other, if not getting closer to Trump? Did one 714 00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:31,840 Speaker 12: right gain in one lose. 715 00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:34,279 Speaker 2: I don't know that Micky Haley is waiting around for 716 00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:37,520 Speaker 2: all the Christie voters to show up for her, so 717 00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:39,480 Speaker 2: it might have just been a wash of a night. 718 00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:44,520 Speaker 2: Kyle Condick joins us from Sabado's Crystal Ball at Kaylee's 719 00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:47,040 Speaker 2: alma mater, the University of Virginia. Kyle, it's great to 720 00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:49,319 Speaker 2: see you. I'm sorry if you had to endure all 721 00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:51,360 Speaker 2: of that as well. I'm sure you did. Did it 722 00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:52,040 Speaker 2: make a difference? 723 00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:57,080 Speaker 13: Probably not. You know that we've been waiting for some 724 00:36:57,400 --> 00:37:01,600 Speaker 13: posts New Year's Day more Iowa. A couple couple came 725 00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:05,640 Speaker 13: out today Suffolk and then Iowa State just dropped one 726 00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:08,600 Speaker 13: a few minutes ago. And Trump's over fifty in both 727 00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:12,160 Speaker 13: of them, and Haley and Desanta's are you know, close 728 00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:14,759 Speaker 13: to each other. I've but very far behind Trump, you know, 729 00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:16,480 Speaker 13: in the fifteen to twenty percent range. I think they 730 00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:18,880 Speaker 13: were tired at fourteen in the Iowa state poles. So 731 00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:21,440 Speaker 13: you know, I mean, maybe we're in't for some sort 732 00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:24,920 Speaker 13: of huge surprise here on Monday night. But you know, 733 00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:26,960 Speaker 13: all of the indicators are that we have so far 734 00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:29,360 Speaker 13: is that Trump is going to win this thing going away. 735 00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:34,120 Speaker 12: Well, Kyle, do we need to redefine what surprise actually 736 00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:37,439 Speaker 12: means when it comes to Iowa? Because sure it would 737 00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:39,960 Speaker 12: be absolutely astounding if Trump didn't win, But could the 738 00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:43,839 Speaker 12: surprise actually be in the margin? How close to him 739 00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:47,320 Speaker 12: is enough that even second place feels like massive news. 740 00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:53,400 Speaker 13: So the Trump campaign has noted accurately that of all 741 00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:56,680 Speaker 13: the you know, contested you know, non incumbent Republican Iowa 742 00:37:56,760 --> 00:38:00,160 Speaker 13: cocauses and over history, the biggest margin of victory is 743 00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:02,840 Speaker 13: is twelve points, and so they're sort of setting the 744 00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:05,040 Speaker 13: bar like, hey, we win by more than twelve points, 745 00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:07,720 Speaker 13: that's good. I personally, don't you know if they wouldn't 746 00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:10,359 Speaker 13: buy like thirteen and fourteen. I don't think that that's 747 00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:12,640 Speaker 13: some sort of impressive performance given what the polls are 748 00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:14,880 Speaker 13: showing now, which is more like he's up by like 749 00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:17,880 Speaker 13: thirty points. You know, what is the difference between a 750 00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:20,560 Speaker 13: good performance and a bad one? I don't know, maybe 751 00:38:20,640 --> 00:38:24,200 Speaker 13: that's like forty percent or something like that, which actually, 752 00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:26,280 Speaker 13: you know, given the polls, he's consistently but over fifty 753 00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:29,560 Speaker 13: forty percent would seem maybe not that great. So there 754 00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:31,880 Speaker 13: is you know, there are maybe there's maybe a higher 755 00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:34,120 Speaker 13: bar for Trump to impress in Iowa, but if he 756 00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:36,359 Speaker 13: matches the polls, he will have done that. I also 757 00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:39,160 Speaker 13: think it's probably fair to treat Trump differently than you 758 00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:42,239 Speaker 13: would a normal non incumbent race because he is sort 759 00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:44,640 Speaker 13: of like a quasi incmbent given that he's the you know, 760 00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:48,759 Speaker 13: he's aiming for a third straight Republican presidential nomination and 761 00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:51,680 Speaker 13: has already served the term as president before. So I 762 00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:54,719 Speaker 13: don't know where i'd put the number necessarily, but you know, 763 00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:58,520 Speaker 13: just just matching or slightly exceeding that historical you know, 764 00:38:58,600 --> 00:39:02,120 Speaker 13: twelve point margin, that probably is not good enough to 765 00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:04,000 Speaker 13: be impressive, and in fact, I think would probably be 766 00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:06,480 Speaker 13: disappointing if it's close to that number. Again, given what 767 00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:07,040 Speaker 13: the polls say. 768 00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:10,680 Speaker 2: Well, of course everyone's banking on a surprise in New 769 00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:13,279 Speaker 2: Hampshire because it's New Hampshire. Of course, it's not a 770 00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:16,680 Speaker 2: surprise if you're expecting it. But after Chris Christy dropped 771 00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:20,120 Speaker 2: out of the race, Kyle, I wonder your thoughts on 772 00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:23,359 Speaker 2: the impact it could have on Nikki Haley. We've seen 773 00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:26,480 Speaker 2: polls that show Donald Trump and Haley within single digits. 774 00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:28,799 Speaker 2: This would make up the difference there, but we also 775 00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:33,000 Speaker 2: heard from Christy himself, hot Mike, She's not up for this, 776 00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:36,719 Speaker 2: She's going to get smoked, which Christie is right. 777 00:39:38,880 --> 00:39:42,560 Speaker 13: Look, I would not be surprised by Haley winning in 778 00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:45,440 Speaker 13: New Hampshire. I think she frankly needs to win New 779 00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:49,960 Speaker 13: Hampshire to really to really justify staying in the contest. Frankly, 780 00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:52,960 Speaker 13: you know, her home state of South Carolina votes like 781 00:39:53,000 --> 00:39:55,120 Speaker 13: a month after New Hampshire, and so you kind of 782 00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:57,880 Speaker 13: enter like a little bit of a dead period. There 783 00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:01,920 Speaker 13: are contests in Nevada in early February, but there's a 784 00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:04,640 Speaker 13: caucus that's actually awarding the delegates that Donald Trump's probably 785 00:40:04,640 --> 00:40:07,000 Speaker 13: gonna win easily. And then there's like a beauty contest 786 00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:10,000 Speaker 13: primary that Haley's competing and she's not competing for the delegates, 787 00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:12,520 Speaker 13: which she'll probably win comfortably. I don't know what you 788 00:40:12,600 --> 00:40:14,800 Speaker 13: really do with that. So after New Hampshire, the focus 789 00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:18,560 Speaker 13: will really go go to South Carolina. But again Haley, 790 00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:21,279 Speaker 13: the coalition Haley is building is kind of kind of 791 00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:23,480 Speaker 13: centered on more moderate voters. You know, a lot of 792 00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:26,080 Speaker 13: independence can cross over and vote in the New Hampshire primary. 793 00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:28,720 Speaker 13: It probably will and probably incline to support a candidate 794 00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:31,000 Speaker 13: like her, particularly with Chris Grissey out. 795 00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:31,359 Speaker 4: Of the race. 796 00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:34,120 Speaker 13: You know, if Haley can't win there, and let's say 797 00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:36,880 Speaker 13: Trump wins Iowa and New Hampshire, I don't know if 798 00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:38,640 Speaker 13: there's much of a rationale for anyone else to even 799 00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:40,799 Speaker 13: continue given that. You know, I guess at that point, 800 00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:43,319 Speaker 13: the only real threat that Trump would be some of 801 00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:45,799 Speaker 13: these legal matters he's dealing with. But he would have 802 00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:48,479 Speaker 13: you know, he would have basically stopped DeSantis in Iowa 803 00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:50,919 Speaker 13: and stopped Haley in New Hampshire. But again, I could 804 00:40:50,960 --> 00:40:54,080 Speaker 13: I could definitely see Haley winning New Hampshire. But that's 805 00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:56,359 Speaker 13: not enough to make this thing a real horse race. 806 00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:59,239 Speaker 13: I think Trump would have to lose South Carolina too 807 00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:01,880 Speaker 13: in order for you Weeks to go into Super Tuesday 808 00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:03,400 Speaker 13: and say, hey, this thing is really opened up. 809 00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:06,880 Speaker 12: Well, Kyle, doesn't it matter who else is in the 810 00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:08,919 Speaker 12: race at that point? Do you think we could see 811 00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:12,600 Speaker 12: a further thinning of the field between Iowa in New Hampshire? 812 00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:15,520 Speaker 12: If Ron DeSantis can't actually get number two in Iowa, 813 00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:17,080 Speaker 12: do you think that means he's out? 814 00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:18,799 Speaker 10: It could? 815 00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:20,719 Speaker 13: I mean, it's you know, it's a decision. It's up 816 00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:22,319 Speaker 13: to him. Although you know, you have to look at 817 00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:25,120 Speaker 13: like whether he would have the resources to continue, et cetera. 818 00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:28,200 Speaker 13: But you know, he has banked everything on Iowa, and 819 00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:30,360 Speaker 13: I think he you know, his polling has suffered certainly 820 00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:33,040 Speaker 13: in New Hampshire. If he can't finish ahead of Haley 821 00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:34,759 Speaker 13: in Iowa, he's certainly not going to finish ahead of 822 00:41:34,840 --> 00:41:37,960 Speaker 13: or in New Hampshire. So I you know, I think 823 00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,400 Speaker 13: it might be it could potentially be curtains for DeSantis 824 00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:43,880 Speaker 13: if if Iowa doesn't turnout in some sort of positive 825 00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:46,680 Speaker 13: kind of way for him. 826 00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:48,480 Speaker 2: What do you make of this? I don't mean to 827 00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:50,400 Speaker 2: sneak up on you with a Kyle this No Labels 828 00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:53,319 Speaker 2: news that we're hearing about just in the last hour 829 00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:56,760 Speaker 2: here Larry Hogan is stepping down from the No Label's 830 00:41:56,880 --> 00:42:01,000 Speaker 2: board in what some see as made maybe the best 831 00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:06,000 Speaker 2: indication yet then he too plans to run No Labels itself, 832 00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:09,360 Speaker 2: separately being reported as in touch with allies of Chris Christie. 833 00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:11,520 Speaker 2: Is this just noise or are we going to have 834 00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:12,640 Speaker 2: a third party candidate? 835 00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:17,440 Speaker 13: You know, I find that difficult to handicap. Actually had 836 00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:19,600 Speaker 13: not heard about the Hogan news until you just mentioned it. 837 00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:22,880 Speaker 13: You know, he would be sort of the logical person 838 00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:24,719 Speaker 13: to run. And you know, look, I think from the 839 00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:27,840 Speaker 13: Democrats perspective, you know, a Chris Christy or a Larry 840 00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:30,520 Speaker 13: Cogan heading a No Labels ticket, I mean, that's probably 841 00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:33,000 Speaker 13: bad worst news for Joe Biden, it is for Donald 842 00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:35,759 Speaker 13: Trump because they have appeal to the kind of like 843 00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:39,840 Speaker 13: lapsed Republican voters that may more naturally be Biden voters 844 00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:42,520 Speaker 13: as opposed to Trump voters. And I had to head matchup. 845 00:42:42,640 --> 00:42:45,080 Speaker 13: So you know, I think it's also possible that No 846 00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:48,719 Speaker 13: Labels just just sputters out and doesn't run anyone. But 847 00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:51,400 Speaker 13: you know, that's that's one of the one of the 848 00:42:51,400 --> 00:42:54,920 Speaker 13: many wildcard's interesting that like the primary season is actually 849 00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:57,160 Speaker 13: is not that exciting, but there's a whole lot of 850 00:42:57,200 --> 00:42:59,239 Speaker 13: other stuff about this twenty twenty four election that is 851 00:42:59,239 --> 00:43:02,040 Speaker 13: exciting and interesting thing. And the potential roster of third 852 00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:04,120 Speaker 13: party candidates is part of that, which is against still 853 00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:07,399 Speaker 13: up in the air. And you know, these candidates would 854 00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:09,399 Speaker 13: have to get BAID access or No Labels is trying 855 00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:12,040 Speaker 13: to get ballid access for their person if they run someone. 856 00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:14,479 Speaker 13: So that's one of the movement pieces here. 857 00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:18,920 Speaker 12: Well, there's also moving pieces in the background, Kyle Joe 858 00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:21,080 Speaker 12: and I were just discussing it here in Washington. We're 859 00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:24,520 Speaker 12: in this big showdown over spending. We're facing down a 860 00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:27,720 Speaker 12: potential government shut down with the knowledge that the Speaker 861 00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:30,520 Speaker 12: of the House, Mike Johnson, has a very close relationship 862 00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:33,279 Speaker 12: with the former president. And I'm conscious that I may 863 00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:36,439 Speaker 12: be overthinking it here, considering I from where I sit 864 00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:39,399 Speaker 12: pay very close attention to the twenty twenty four race 865 00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:42,520 Speaker 12: and to Congress when not everyone else does. But could 866 00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:45,279 Speaker 12: Trump be damaged if there is a government shut down 867 00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:48,399 Speaker 12: and it's perceived as him having some influence on that, 868 00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:51,360 Speaker 12: because this could be happening while people are making choices 869 00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:52,560 Speaker 12: in primaries. 870 00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:56,040 Speaker 13: I doubt it in the short term. I mean, look, 871 00:43:56,040 --> 00:43:57,880 Speaker 13: if we have like an entire year of chaos in 872 00:43:57,920 --> 00:44:00,239 Speaker 13: the House, and maybe you have like a government shut 873 00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:03,560 Speaker 13: down in late summer or in the fall, which I 874 00:44:03,640 --> 00:44:05,680 Speaker 13: doubt Republicans would allow it to happen. 875 00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:06,439 Speaker 5: But I mean, who knows. 876 00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:10,279 Speaker 13: The Republican conference in the House just seems basically ungovernable. 877 00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:14,080 Speaker 13: So I don't think that this stuff matters in terms 878 00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:17,040 Speaker 13: of the actual twenty twenty four presidential election. I mean, look, 879 00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:19,719 Speaker 13: I mean we have you know, the presidential candidates, who 880 00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:22,320 Speaker 13: the nominees are, they end up becoming basically the leaders 881 00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:24,680 Speaker 13: of their respective parties. I think that a lot of 882 00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:26,880 Speaker 13: the election results kind of flow from what happens in 883 00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:30,040 Speaker 13: the presidential race, and so I don't think that the again, 884 00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:32,760 Speaker 13: that the chaos in the House is all that meaningful. 885 00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:35,440 Speaker 13: Certainly meaningful for the operation of the country though, and 886 00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:37,640 Speaker 13: I guess you know see why the certainly why the 887 00:44:37,680 --> 00:44:40,160 Speaker 13: markets would care about it, and why people who follow 888 00:44:40,160 --> 00:44:42,440 Speaker 13: this stuff closely would care about it. But in terms 889 00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:46,319 Speaker 13: of political impact, I'd say probably not much, at least 890 00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:47,360 Speaker 13: in the short term. 891 00:44:48,120 --> 00:44:50,719 Speaker 2: You wonder to what extent Donald Trump has his thumb 892 00:44:50,800 --> 00:44:53,279 Speaker 2: on the scale in the House, though, Kyle, with the 893 00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:55,279 Speaker 2: Speaker talking to him on the regular, you talk to 894 00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:59,160 Speaker 2: him and Joe Biden apparently yesterday alone, and we're hearing 895 00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:03,600 Speaker 2: so pretty loud noise from the Freedom Caucus here, and 896 00:45:03,640 --> 00:45:06,640 Speaker 2: you wonder to what extent the discord is being fed 897 00:45:06,680 --> 00:45:07,720 Speaker 2: by the former president. 898 00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:13,240 Speaker 13: It's quite possible. I mean, you know, the former president 899 00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:16,200 Speaker 13: demands total loyalty, but he doesn't necessarily give it back 900 00:45:16,239 --> 00:45:19,920 Speaker 13: in return, and you know, he's been sort of a 901 00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:23,240 Speaker 13: chaos agent in the past in terms of his dealings 902 00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:25,600 Speaker 13: with uh, you know, with with with with Republic, his 903 00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:29,040 Speaker 13: fellow party members, and you know, in in in the 904 00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:33,640 Speaker 13: House and the Senate. So you know, I doubt, I 905 00:45:33,719 --> 00:45:36,640 Speaker 13: doubt that the former president is being a constructive player 906 00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:40,040 Speaker 13: and trying to resolve these things and quite possibly the opposite. 907 00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:44,439 Speaker 12: Finally, Kyle, we only have about forty five seconds left. 908 00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:48,200 Speaker 12: But what a shutdown make it change the odds of 909 00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:50,640 Speaker 12: how many seats may flip in terms of the House 910 00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:53,080 Speaker 12: majority come November, because we got to consider the down 911 00:45:53,120 --> 00:45:53,759 Speaker 12: ballot here too. 912 00:45:55,520 --> 00:45:57,200 Speaker 13: Again, in the short term, I don't really think so. 913 00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:00,719 Speaker 13: But again, you know, it's quite gospel that you'd have 914 00:46:00,719 --> 00:46:03,279 Speaker 13: this sort of volatility continuing throughout the year, and I 915 00:46:03,320 --> 00:46:06,320 Speaker 13: would think that would probably help Democrats on the margins. 916 00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:09,719 Speaker 13: But again, I think we're still far away from that 917 00:46:09,760 --> 00:46:12,759 Speaker 13: potentially being important. You know, there's such a churn of 918 00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:14,920 Speaker 13: news and stuff that I just think these things can 919 00:46:15,000 --> 00:46:16,880 Speaker 13: be easily for good, even though I don't want to 920 00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:20,239 Speaker 13: downplay they actually have clear real world importance. I just 921 00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:23,320 Speaker 13: don't necessarily know if they're going to be dictating election outcomes, 922 00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:25,200 Speaker 13: you know, here in January, looking ahead to November. 923 00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:29,160 Speaker 2: Well, Kyle, it's good to see a Kyle Knack at 924 00:46:29,200 --> 00:46:31,920 Speaker 2: Sabaga's Crystal Ball where he's managing editor at the University 925 00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:35,479 Speaker 2: of Virginia Center for Politics. We thank you as always, Kyle. 926 00:46:35,560 --> 00:46:37,160 Speaker 2: Stay in touch. We'd like to talk to you once 927 00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:40,200 Speaker 2: we get some actual voting to discuss. It is kind 928 00:46:40,200 --> 00:46:41,840 Speaker 2: of crazy to think about that on Monday. 929 00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:45,040 Speaker 12: It'll be real, real numbers four days away. 930 00:46:45,200 --> 00:46:48,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, and we'll be there for it. The weather is 931 00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:51,000 Speaker 2: another matter. We'll talk about that later this hour too, 932 00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:54,120 Speaker 2: because that'll be another point of history in Iowa with 933 00:46:54,239 --> 00:46:55,480 Speaker 2: Kaylee Lions. I'm Joe Matthew. 934 00:46:55,520 --> 00:47:01,640 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Blomberg Sound on podcast. 935 00:47:02,080 --> 00:47:05,600 Speaker 1: Catch us live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, 936 00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:08,759 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen 937 00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:10,960 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 938 00:47:12,480 --> 00:47:14,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, I've really it's become a habit now, a daily 939 00:47:14,640 --> 00:47:19,600 Speaker 2: thing where I'm watching the local newscast, the local weathercast specifically, 940 00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:23,520 Speaker 2: but it's the local stations in Des Moines that have 941 00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:28,640 Speaker 2: really attracted my attention and for them, even for them, 942 00:47:29,400 --> 00:47:31,839 Speaker 2: this is going to be really bad. We've talked about 943 00:47:31,880 --> 00:47:34,960 Speaker 2: the cold. Yeah, but it's getting colder. 944 00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:37,480 Speaker 12: I don't even know if we can describe this as cold. 945 00:47:37,560 --> 00:47:42,360 Speaker 12: It seems like an inadequate description for temperatures of negative 946 00:47:42,680 --> 00:47:46,600 Speaker 12: twenty and wind chills of they get thirty to forty 947 00:47:46,640 --> 00:47:47,680 Speaker 12: degrees fahrenheit. 948 00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:53,280 Speaker 2: Mind you yes, biblical. A Wall Street Journal reporter tweets 949 00:47:53,400 --> 00:47:56,200 Speaker 2: Nikki Haley talking about the weather today quote, it's going 950 00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:58,120 Speaker 2: to be so cold. I don't even know what negative 951 00:47:58,160 --> 00:48:00,960 Speaker 2: fifteen is. I was complaining when it was cold in 952 00:48:01,000 --> 00:48:06,319 Speaker 2: Iowa in October. Are you ready for the latest? KCCI 953 00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:08,480 Speaker 2: channel eight des Moines. 954 00:48:08,719 --> 00:48:11,279 Speaker 14: Snowfall them mount six to nine inches over parts of 955 00:48:11,320 --> 00:48:14,120 Speaker 14: western and northern Iowa six or nine to twelve inches 956 00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:17,560 Speaker 14: for places like Fort Dodge over toward Humboldt, Iowa. Falls 957 00:48:17,880 --> 00:48:20,680 Speaker 14: down toward Ames and Marshalltown six to nine inches, and 958 00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:22,759 Speaker 14: the metro. We're gonna be on that cuss there boat 959 00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:25,560 Speaker 14: where we can higher amount tomorrow. And then the bitter 960 00:48:25,600 --> 00:48:29,400 Speaker 14: cold settles in coming up on Saturday, the snow flurries. 961 00:48:29,680 --> 00:48:33,279 Speaker 14: It's possible by Saturday evening we drop below zero and 962 00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:36,120 Speaker 14: we stay below zero for air temperatures all the way 963 00:48:36,480 --> 00:48:38,239 Speaker 14: into Tuesday afternoon. 964 00:48:39,000 --> 00:48:42,000 Speaker 2: The whole time we're there, literally, so it's gonna be 965 00:48:42,000 --> 00:48:45,279 Speaker 2: below zero tomorrow I guess by the time we get 966 00:48:45,280 --> 00:48:48,000 Speaker 2: there Saturday, and it'll stay there for the duration. How 967 00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:50,360 Speaker 2: are we gonna get there though, there's another snowstorm tomorrow. 968 00:48:51,280 --> 00:48:55,799 Speaker 12: I don't know. Cross your fingers. Joe, bundle up. 969 00:48:55,920 --> 00:48:57,760 Speaker 2: You mentioned something about hypothermia. 970 00:48:57,920 --> 00:49:01,439 Speaker 12: Yeah, apparently if we're outside for longer than ten. 971 00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:03,120 Speaker 2: This is for caucus goers as well. 972 00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:06,840 Speaker 12: Post Yeah, that's when hypothermia could set out, so we 973 00:49:06,880 --> 00:49:09,279 Speaker 12: are not adiquately prepared. Okay, Yeah, so run. 974 00:49:09,440 --> 00:49:12,680 Speaker 2: That's basically we'll just not spend much time outside. Yeah, 975 00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:15,720 Speaker 2: we'll let you know how awful it looks tomorrow, I guess, 976 00:49:15,760 --> 00:49:19,839 Speaker 2: because this could impact turnout. It's not just about Joe 977 00:49:19,880 --> 00:49:24,520 Speaker 2: and Kayley. Thanks for listening to the Sound On podcast. 978 00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:27,719 Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 979 00:49:27,760 --> 00:49:30,200 Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can 980 00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:33,239 Speaker 2: find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one 981 00:49:33,280 --> 00:49:37,840 Speaker 2: pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com.