WEBVTT - Slack CEO, CFO On Why They Went With A Direct Listing

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Penl Podcast. I'm Paul Swinge. You,

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<v Speaker 1>along with my co host Lisa Brahma wits each day

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<v Speaker 1>we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for

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<v Speaker 1>you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or

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<v Speaker 1>the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple

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<v Speaker 1>podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg dot com. Let's get a little bit more

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<v Speaker 1>insight into the company Slack, and we do that we

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<v Speaker 1>bring in Man Deep. Seeing. Man Deep is senior tech

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<v Speaker 1>industry annalys for Bloomberg Intelligence. So we've talked a lot

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<v Speaker 1>Man Deep about the actual process of a direct listing,

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<v Speaker 1>but I wonder if you can just give us a

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<v Speaker 1>sense of what this company is really all about and

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<v Speaker 1>why investors are, you know, kind of I think pretty

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<v Speaker 1>interested in this in this new offering here. Sure. So,

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<v Speaker 1>Slack is a company that was born on the cloud

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<v Speaker 1>and it's writing this trend of mobility and shift to cloud.

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<v Speaker 1>When you think about their technology stack, you're really re

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<v Speaker 1>platforming from on premise environments to a cloud based environment.

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<v Speaker 1>And Black is a single product company. What it does

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<v Speaker 1>is real time messaging platform zoom IF, which went public

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<v Speaker 1>before Slack, it does you know, real time video communications.

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<v Speaker 1>So I feel like there is a lot of fragmentation

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<v Speaker 1>on the cloud now and what you're seeing is single

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<v Speaker 1>product companies doing very well because cloud, remember is a

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<v Speaker 1>recurring subscription model, so you have tons of visibilities. Once

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<v Speaker 1>you have a customer, it's very sticky, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>that's why these companies are getting a lot of premium

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<v Speaker 1>because there is growth, There is good growth, there is

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<v Speaker 1>predictable growth. But at the end of the day, I

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<v Speaker 1>think they're going to run against some Microsoft or a Google,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's where you're you're gonna say, Okay, how how

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<v Speaker 1>much RAM does this company have? And I feel like

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<v Speaker 1>they haven't hit that point yet, but it will be

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<v Speaker 1>very soon. I should note that Bloomberg Beta, the venture

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<v Speaker 1>capital arm of Bloomberg LP, is an investor in Slack,

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<v Speaker 1>So it kind of brings up one of the questions,

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<v Speaker 1>you know it it seems like a business that very

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<v Speaker 1>relatively early stages that is slack of their growth profile.

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<v Speaker 1>But we've seen in the past or somebod these you know,

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<v Speaker 1>cool technologies really hit that Microsoft Software or or Google

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<v Speaker 1>or an amaza. I can just come in and buy

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<v Speaker 1>them up. And do you think that's a reasonable scenario

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<v Speaker 1>here for a company like Slack. Sure, So that's a

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<v Speaker 1>great point. We've seen that beginning to happen now with

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<v Speaker 1>Salesforce buying Tableau. What it tells you is the cloud.

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<v Speaker 1>The large cloud companies like Salesforce, like Microsoft, even you

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<v Speaker 1>know you can put Service Now in the same bucket,

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<v Speaker 1>are looking for acquisitions because as a company, you don't

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<v Speaker 1>want to deal with fifty different vendors. If I have

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<v Speaker 1>a point product from Slack, point product from Atlastian, point

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<v Speaker 1>product from drop Box, that's not going to help me,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, manage my enterprise systems any easier on the cloud. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>cloud is a better model with you know, subscriptions on demand.

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<v Speaker 1>But at the end of the day, you want to

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<v Speaker 1>see vendor consolidation. And I think with Slack, their revenue

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<v Speaker 1>is very growth is very strong, it's recurring. But at

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<v Speaker 1>the end of the day, how many customers can they

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<v Speaker 1>add for that single product, And that's a question that

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<v Speaker 1>investors want to know. Well about a month or so,

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<v Speaker 1>it seemed like we were talking to you a lot

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<v Speaker 1>about uber Um and Lift and one of the problems

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<v Speaker 1>was I from an investors perspective is they weren't profitable

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<v Speaker 1>and the path of profitability was very unclear. Is Slack profitable, No,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not. In fact, they spend a ton of money

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<v Speaker 1>on customer acquisition costs that the sales and marketing expenses

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<v Speaker 1>are really high. They have operating margins of negative negative

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<v Speaker 1>free casual margins. The good thing with Slack compared to

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<v Speaker 1>the right sharing guys you alluded to, is that they

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<v Speaker 1>have higher gross margins. Slack has typical you know, plus

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<v Speaker 1>gross margins. That's typical for any software company. And so

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<v Speaker 1>the only level they need to pull this to lower

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<v Speaker 1>their sales and marketing expenses and that way they can

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<v Speaker 1>be operating margin positive. The risk is if they do that,

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<v Speaker 1>then you know they're not going to acquire customers at

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<v Speaker 1>the same pace and that's the key to driving revenue growth. Interesting,

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<v Speaker 1>is this a global stories? Is a u S domestic?

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<v Speaker 1>So they have exposure in Europe. For most of the

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<v Speaker 1>software companies, especially the cloud ones, they are America and

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<v Speaker 1>Europe centric. They have very little exposure to China, and

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<v Speaker 1>so in this case they are thirty percent of their

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<v Speaker 1>revenue comes from Europe. Interesting, so it's we'll have to

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<v Speaker 1>take a look, Mandy, if you're gonna stay with us.

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<v Speaker 1>So we're gonna see how this stock opens that hasn't

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<v Speaker 1>open yet in the marketplace, um, but expected sometime later

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<v Speaker 1>this afternoon. UM. So we'll have to see other place

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<v Speaker 1>coming up. Of course, we have Emily Chang of Bloomberg Television.

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<v Speaker 1>She's sitting down with Slack CEO Stewart Butterfield and the

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<v Speaker 1>CFO Alan Shim at the New York Stock Exchange to

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<v Speaker 1>talk about this new offering, to talk about the future

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<v Speaker 1>of the company. So that'll be coming up in just moments.

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<v Speaker 1>But but clearly and highly anticipated transaction. Not only is

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<v Speaker 1>it a you know, a well known technology company, high growth,

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<v Speaker 1>lots of investor interest, but it's also direct listing way

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<v Speaker 1>of issuing shares to the public and is not an

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<v Speaker 1>I p O. It is a direct listing where your

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<v Speaker 1>secondary shareholders are offering shares in the public marketplace. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>And buyers are being lined up and they're trying to

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<v Speaker 1>figure out the right price which they can open this stock.

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<v Speaker 1>So we will see that coming right now. Let's go

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<v Speaker 1>to Emily Chang of Bloomberg Television. Welcome to our Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>TV and radio audiences. After bumper crop of I p

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<v Speaker 1>O s either languishing or wildly exceeding expectations, Slack is

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<v Speaker 1>taking a route to the trading fuller, it hopes will

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<v Speaker 1>provide a much more well boring outcome a direct listing.

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<v Speaker 1>As we wait for the stock to start trading on

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<v Speaker 1>the New York Stock Exchange, I am joined from the

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<v Speaker 1>trading floor by the company's co founder and CEO Stewart Butterfield,

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<v Speaker 1>and CFO Alan Shim. Gentlemen, thank you for joining us.

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<v Speaker 1>Congratulation big milestone. We are waiting for first trade. The

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<v Speaker 1>stock indicated to open thirty to thirty four dollars a share,

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<v Speaker 1>which is higher than your reference price of twenty six

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<v Speaker 1>dollars a share. Stewart, how confident are you in this

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<v Speaker 1>moment as you wait there for this stock to start

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<v Speaker 1>trading about the process that the wreck listing was the

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<v Speaker 1>way to go. Um. We'll see, But I think for

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<v Speaker 1>at this point it has been working exactly the way

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<v Speaker 1>we're supposed to work. Um. And ultimately we'll open, we'll

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<v Speaker 1>have a high and a low today, we'll close, and

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<v Speaker 1>then the same thing is gonna happen tomorrow and the

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<v Speaker 1>next day and the next day, and we are very

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<v Speaker 1>much focused on the long term. Now, you're still paying

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<v Speaker 1>large fees to bankers. You still raised a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>money on the private market. So what problem are you

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<v Speaker 1>really solving Stewart by doing a direct listing versus the

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<v Speaker 1>traditional I P O. Well, the first one is that

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<v Speaker 1>no need to raise primary capital. We came into this

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<v Speaker 1>process with over million dollars on the balance sheet, so

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<v Speaker 1>the delusion to existing shareholders would have been tough. I

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<v Speaker 1>think we did get a little bit more freedom and

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<v Speaker 1>how we tell the story. So in addition to a

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<v Speaker 1>road show, but instead of only having a road show

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<v Speaker 1>in private rooms with the investors, we were able to

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<v Speaker 1>do an investor day, live stream it and make the

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<v Speaker 1>video available to everyone. Um, and that I think is

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<v Speaker 1>a pertition a better position. Now Alan Slack is still

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<v Speaker 1>unprofitable and the markets have rewarded profits even if they're

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<v Speaker 1>slim profits. How far out is profitability? Well, our primary

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<v Speaker 1>focus right now is to invest in growth, and as

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<v Speaker 1>we continue to build on what we think is a

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<v Speaker 1>new category, that's going to be our focus for a

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<v Speaker 1>long time. But we've also said to investors that our

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<v Speaker 1>near term priority is to drive towards cash will break even.

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<v Speaker 1>We have high confidence in the strong economics of our

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<v Speaker 1>business that we can still invest very aggressively while driving

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<v Speaker 1>towards that near term profitability market. So, then, Stewart, how

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<v Speaker 1>much of a priority would you say that profitability actually is.

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<v Speaker 1>I think, uh, I don't want to get you technical

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<v Speaker 1>about it. In sas there's a lot of deferred revenues,

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<v Speaker 1>so accounting profitability isn't that much of a priority. As

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<v Speaker 1>Alan was saying, bringing in more cash than we put

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<v Speaker 1>out on an ongoing basis is a priority because it

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<v Speaker 1>allows us to control our own destiny. The ideal for

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<v Speaker 1>us though, is that we continually find new ways and

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<v Speaker 1>new opportunities to invest to further grow the business, and

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<v Speaker 1>we don't need a lot of free cash flow, but

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<v Speaker 1>just a little bit. Now, Allen, revenue growth is slowing.

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<v Speaker 1>What are some new sources of revenue you're expecting to tap. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>we're very pleased with the revenue growth. I think what

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<v Speaker 1>you're seeing is also we're making great track when customers

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<v Speaker 1>and we've gotten customers today. Our enterprise customers are also

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<v Speaker 1>growing even faster, so we have six customers over hun

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<v Speaker 1>Kane revenue and I think what you're seeing is we're

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<v Speaker 1>scaling so at the base of revenue that we're right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Some of the revenue growth this mathematically will come down,

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<v Speaker 1>but we're very optimizing about the opportunity. We believe it's

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<v Speaker 1>a huge new category to be built and invested behind.

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<v Speaker 1>So we're focused on that now. Stewart, We've charted your

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<v Speaker 1>progress from the very beginning. I went back into our archives.

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<v Speaker 1>The first interview I did with you was inn when

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<v Speaker 1>you were CEO of Tiny Speck and you were making

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<v Speaker 1>a game called Glitch, which sort of became slack in

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<v Speaker 1>Jared Leto crashed our interview. I will never forget that. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>your employees, your users really love the sort of quirkiness

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<v Speaker 1>of Slack, which is an ethos very much inspired by you.

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<v Speaker 1>That said, you are becoming a public company. You're going

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<v Speaker 1>to be doing earnings calls every quarter. How do you

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<v Speaker 1>manage that transition with public investors holding your feet to

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<v Speaker 1>the fire. I think both Al and I have been

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<v Speaker 1>committed and this is not a recent thing, but over

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<v Speaker 1>the course of many years on building the kind of

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<v Speaker 1>internal controls and systems that would allow us to operate

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<v Speaker 1>as a public company. UM. So you know the financial

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<v Speaker 1>business operations side. That again a long time ago, and

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<v Speaker 1>we've been working with the whole company that kind of

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<v Speaker 1>transition in the limited number of ways that we do.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, the we believe we can keep the same culture.

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<v Speaker 1>We can believe we can keep the same approach to

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<v Speaker 1>serving customers. If you think about our mission to make

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<v Speaker 1>people's working life simpler, more pleasant, and more productive, there's

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<v Speaker 1>a nice humility to it because we do want to

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<v Speaker 1>be of service. So there's also a huge ambition, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think the challenge for us or you know, like

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<v Speaker 1>kind of the what we're going to have to pull

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<v Speaker 1>off is bringing investors along on that ride and help

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<v Speaker 1>them understand what the long term vision is and what

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<v Speaker 1>we can truly do to support companies all over the world.

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<v Speaker 1>Now you're entering the volatile market. We're in the midst

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<v Speaker 1>of a trade war with China. You could imagine in

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<v Speaker 1>an economic downturn that businesses are going to cut budgets.

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<v Speaker 1>They might not cut email, they might not cut Microsoft Office,

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<v Speaker 1>they might cut the nice to haves, and they might

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<v Speaker 1>think that Slack falls into that category. Stewart, how big

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<v Speaker 1>a risk is that? I don't see any real risk

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<v Speaker 1>in that we have exceptional retention, so industry leading on

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<v Speaker 1>both the enterprise side and the SMB side. Um Our

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<v Speaker 1>customers tell us black is the kind of thing that

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<v Speaker 1>they didn't know they needed, but once they have it,

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<v Speaker 1>can't live without it. And if you can't live without Sudden,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not going to be one of the items that

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<v Speaker 1>are cut on a discretionary basis. So Alan would you say,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, how much do these market fluctuations? How much

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<v Speaker 1>are you following what's happening in the global economy. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>we we watched it like anybody, all us, but it

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't necessarily affect the way we are on our business.

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<v Speaker 1>We're building a new category. We have so many things

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<v Speaker 1>to focus on, supporting our customers and building this ambition

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<v Speaker 1>of a new way of working. So we've control we

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<v Speaker 1>can control, and the markets see what they need to

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<v Speaker 1>do now. Stewart analysts say that chat apps are a

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<v Speaker 1>dime of dozen. You've got huge competitors like Microsoft, like Facebook,

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<v Speaker 1>with deep pockets and billions of users over the longer term,

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<v Speaker 1>how do you differentiate yourself? How do you compete when

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<v Speaker 1>even you say in your own risk factors, you haven't

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<v Speaker 1>figured out the optimal price because it depends often on

0:11:33.800 --> 0:11:37.319
<v Speaker 1>what your competitors are doing. At Slack, we say we

0:11:37.400 --> 0:11:40.360
<v Speaker 1>are a competitor aware, but customer assessed, and I know

0:11:40.840 --> 0:11:43.080
<v Speaker 1>it's hard for me to imagine anything that any competitor

0:11:43.080 --> 0:11:45.640
<v Speaker 1>would do that would cause us to change our plans

0:11:46.080 --> 0:11:49.160
<v Speaker 1>um when those plans are all oriented around creating value

0:11:49.240 --> 0:11:52.400
<v Speaker 1>for our customers. So one of the things you want

0:11:52.440 --> 0:11:53.959
<v Speaker 1>to do is put ourselves in the position sets that

0:11:54.000 --> 0:11:56.600
<v Speaker 1>Slack the company becomes more valuable as the world uses

0:11:56.640 --> 0:11:59.560
<v Speaker 1>more software because Slack the product becomes more valuable for

0:11:59.600 --> 0:12:02.200
<v Speaker 1>each of our customers as they use more software because

0:12:02.200 --> 0:12:05.720
<v Speaker 1>of the platform, because of the integrations. Uh, you know,

0:12:05.800 --> 0:12:09.720
<v Speaker 1>there's a whole world out there of other software. The

0:12:09.800 --> 0:12:11.640
<v Speaker 1>number of categories continues to put there for it, the

0:12:11.720 --> 0:12:15.079
<v Speaker 1>number of dollars that companies investment software every year continues

0:12:15.120 --> 0:12:17.040
<v Speaker 1>to go up. So in that kind of market, and

0:12:17.040 --> 0:12:19.000
<v Speaker 1>in a world where we have ten million daily active

0:12:19.080 --> 0:12:21.880
<v Speaker 1>users out of the million plus that we believe would

0:12:21.880 --> 0:12:25.800
<v Speaker 1>benefits from Slock, it's just wide open all right. Shares

0:12:25.840 --> 0:12:29.679
<v Speaker 1>now indicated to open thirty two thirty four dollars a share,

0:12:29.760 --> 0:12:31.760
<v Speaker 1>So so we're getting a little bit higher. This means

0:12:31.840 --> 0:12:36.120
<v Speaker 1>that you know, investors, employees can sell their shares immediately. Alan,

0:12:36.400 --> 0:12:38.480
<v Speaker 1>should we be worried about a brain drain? Should we

0:12:38.520 --> 0:12:42.240
<v Speaker 1>be worried about a talent exodus once employees can sell

0:12:42.600 --> 0:12:47.000
<v Speaker 1>with no lock up. I think employees like investors, they're

0:12:47.000 --> 0:12:49.959
<v Speaker 1>appreciating how big of a category and opportunity this is.

0:12:50.160 --> 0:12:53.079
<v Speaker 1>We estimate this addressable market to be twenty billion dollars

0:12:53.360 --> 0:12:55.800
<v Speaker 1>and we're just getting started here at one where a

0:12:55.880 --> 0:12:59.920
<v Speaker 1>category and a product and a hub that values adoption

0:13:00.000 --> 0:13:03.560
<v Speaker 1>and use er engagement, you know, customer experience as well

0:13:03.640 --> 0:13:05.480
<v Speaker 1>as the thoughtless sort of alluded to which we think

0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:07.760
<v Speaker 1>is going to transform the way people work in the future.

0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:11.880
<v Speaker 1>Here now, Stewart, last quick question for you. You've been

0:13:11.920 --> 0:13:15.080
<v Speaker 1>very focused on building a diverse team. Slack punches above

0:13:15.080 --> 0:13:17.200
<v Speaker 1>its way on women and minorities that I know even

0:13:17.240 --> 0:13:20.920
<v Speaker 1>you admit that that you still have work to do. Unfortunately,

0:13:21.000 --> 0:13:23.920
<v Speaker 1>other CEOs still don't think diversity is a priority. How

0:13:24.000 --> 0:13:26.719
<v Speaker 1>has having a diverse team, having more voices in the

0:13:26.800 --> 0:13:29.920
<v Speaker 1>room helped you get to this moment, helped you improve

0:13:29.960 --> 0:13:33.760
<v Speaker 1>the bottom line? Well, I think that there's a bit

0:13:33.760 --> 0:13:36.360
<v Speaker 1>of an increasing return dynamic. So the better job we

0:13:36.480 --> 0:13:38.920
<v Speaker 1>do the easier it is to take the next step.

0:13:39.200 --> 0:13:41.959
<v Speaker 1>And so UM, there's a lot of early employees I

0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:44.720
<v Speaker 1>think who made really important contributions to the Slack culture

0:13:45.080 --> 0:13:48.280
<v Speaker 1>opened it up UM and brought in people from their network,

0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:51.240
<v Speaker 1>and that has allowed us to kind of continue, which

0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:53.160
<v Speaker 1>reduces some of the resistance because it can be very

0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:55.280
<v Speaker 1>difficult if company gets too big. Is that's something that

0:13:55.320 --> 0:13:57.400
<v Speaker 1>we're we're proud of, but you know, you said, we

0:13:57.440 --> 0:14:00.760
<v Speaker 1>have more work to do. It's uh, that doesn't end.

0:14:01.200 --> 0:14:04.199
<v Speaker 1>We're part of the larger culture, in the larger society UM,

0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:07.560
<v Speaker 1>and we do what we can. Uh. My hope is

0:14:07.600 --> 0:14:09.320
<v Speaker 1>that there are you know, a group of people who

0:14:09.360 --> 0:14:12.480
<v Speaker 1>graduate from SLOCK and go on to start other companies, UM,

0:14:12.600 --> 0:14:15.440
<v Speaker 1>to have careers at other companies and kind of spread

0:14:15.440 --> 0:14:18.959
<v Speaker 1>that way of working on all right, Stewart Butterfield, CEO

0:14:19.000 --> 0:14:21.480
<v Speaker 1>and co founder Slack Ellen Shim the CFO, we're waiting

0:14:21.480 --> 0:14:23.720
<v Speaker 1>for shares to start trading. Thank you both so much

0:14:23.760 --> 0:14:26.800
<v Speaker 1>for joining us. Back to you, Emily Chang, thank you

0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:29.720
<v Speaker 1>so much. That was Emily Chang of Bloomberg Television interviewing

0:14:29.960 --> 0:14:33.040
<v Speaker 1>Slack CEO Stewart Butterfield and CFO Allen Shim who were

0:14:33.040 --> 0:14:36.560
<v Speaker 1>on the New York Stock Exchange floors. The stock opens

0:14:36.720 --> 0:14:40.640
<v Speaker 1>begins to openfor trading. At some point later this this morning,

0:14:40.960 --> 0:14:42.560
<v Speaker 1>we still have man Deep seeing with us Man Deep

0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:45.760
<v Speaker 1>as the senior technology annals for Bloomberg Intelligence, So Manteep.

0:14:45.840 --> 0:14:47.520
<v Speaker 1>One of the things I thought was interesting was the

0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:51.560
<v Speaker 1>discussion around competition. Um. The question, I guess is there

0:14:51.560 --> 0:14:53.920
<v Speaker 1>are some big competitors in the marketplace. How do you

0:14:53.960 --> 0:14:58.720
<v Speaker 1>think Slack is positioned in that space? Sure? So, I

0:14:58.760 --> 0:15:01.280
<v Speaker 1>think when I look at, you know, the comparative landscape,

0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:05.000
<v Speaker 1>obviously Microsoft is the biggest one for Slack, and Microsoft

0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:07.600
<v Speaker 1>is still a hybrid company. It's you know, it's got

0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:11.960
<v Speaker 1>a huge legacy on premise customer base and it's got

0:15:11.960 --> 0:15:14.920
<v Speaker 1>a lot of new cloud offerings. I think what they're

0:15:14.960 --> 0:15:17.400
<v Speaker 1>trying to do, what Microsoft specifically is trying to do,

0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:20.440
<v Speaker 1>is to build their team's product which competes with Slack,

0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:24.160
<v Speaker 1>and Slack will have a tough time displacing a Microsoft

0:15:24.240 --> 0:15:27.320
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to you know, large enterprises. So I

0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:30.520
<v Speaker 1>think Stewart alluded to it that they're gonna keep spending on,

0:15:30.600 --> 0:15:33.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, acquiring new customers. That seems to be the

0:15:33.120 --> 0:15:37.000
<v Speaker 1>path to sustain revenue growth. Here, I would have wanted to,

0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:39.880
<v Speaker 1>you know, hear more around product expansion and how they

0:15:39.920 --> 0:15:42.760
<v Speaker 1>want to move into different areas of software versus just

0:15:42.920 --> 0:15:46.520
<v Speaker 1>focusing on chats, because there are a lot of chat

0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:49.760
<v Speaker 1>companies out there and it's hard to you know, sustain

0:15:49.880 --> 0:15:52.520
<v Speaker 1>your revenue growth just when you're a single product company. Yeah.

0:15:52.560 --> 0:15:55.800
<v Speaker 1>The other thing I heard there which kind of concerned

0:15:55.800 --> 0:15:58.400
<v Speaker 1>me a little bit, is a discussion about profitability. This is,

0:15:58.440 --> 0:16:00.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, this the standard line from a lot of

0:16:00.160 --> 0:16:02.080
<v Speaker 1>these technology companies that they are going to continue to

0:16:02.160 --> 0:16:05.360
<v Speaker 1>invest in growth. And I think what we saw again

0:16:05.840 --> 0:16:09.040
<v Speaker 1>from Uber and Lift is investors are all for the

0:16:09.040 --> 0:16:12.080
<v Speaker 1>top line, but they least have to have some path

0:16:12.240 --> 0:16:14.960
<v Speaker 1>to profitability, a vision of how a company can get

0:16:14.960 --> 0:16:18.200
<v Speaker 1>to profitability, and arguably Uber and Left have not made

0:16:18.200 --> 0:16:20.720
<v Speaker 1>that clear to investors. Do you think investors are going

0:16:20.800 --> 0:16:23.920
<v Speaker 1>to give this company? I pass on this don't worry

0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:26.920
<v Speaker 1>about the profits right now story. I think as long

0:16:26.960 --> 0:16:29.880
<v Speaker 1>as they maintained the top line growth of over fifty

0:16:30.680 --> 0:16:33.440
<v Speaker 1>that's the key here, because the overall cloud market is

0:16:33.480 --> 0:16:36.400
<v Speaker 1>still growing over and we're talking about, you know, a

0:16:36.440 --> 0:16:39.800
<v Speaker 1>hundred and fifty billion plus market growing at this is

0:16:39.840 --> 0:16:42.640
<v Speaker 1>a company with four hundred million dollars in revenue, it

0:16:42.720 --> 0:16:45.880
<v Speaker 1>has to you know, grow at least fifty. As long

0:16:45.920 --> 0:16:49.160
<v Speaker 1>as they maintain that top line growth, it should be okay.

0:16:49.200 --> 0:16:51.400
<v Speaker 1>But I think where they're gonna struggle is we've got

0:16:51.440 --> 0:16:53.680
<v Speaker 1>good comps for Slack. You have a company like a

0:16:53.760 --> 0:16:57.640
<v Speaker 1>Classian that is operating margin positive. You have a company

0:16:57.720 --> 0:17:01.360
<v Speaker 1>like DocuSign that is operating margin positive. Box and drop

0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:04.720
<v Speaker 1>Box are trading at much lower multiples than Slack is.

0:17:05.080 --> 0:17:07.240
<v Speaker 1>So I think there will be a real challenge for

0:17:07.359 --> 0:17:10.720
<v Speaker 1>Slack to make sure investors are able to you know,

0:17:10.800 --> 0:17:13.639
<v Speaker 1>write in that growth story without them having a clear

0:17:13.640 --> 0:17:16.360
<v Speaker 1>path through profitability. Men Deep Seek, thank you so much.

0:17:16.440 --> 0:17:19.399
<v Speaker 1>A man Deep, senior tech analyst for Bluemberg Intelligence, joining

0:17:19.440 --> 0:17:38.639
<v Speaker 1>me here in the Bloomberg Interactor Brooker Studios. Trade back

0:17:38.800 --> 0:17:41.600
<v Speaker 1>on the front, Bernard, and I guess despite some deverished

0:17:41.640 --> 0:17:46.080
<v Speaker 1>comments by President Trump yesterday about trade tensions, remain high

0:17:46.080 --> 0:17:48.679
<v Speaker 1>concerns about what the impact will be on corporate America.

0:17:48.760 --> 0:17:51.160
<v Speaker 1>Now we're actually starting to see some of the leading

0:17:51.200 --> 0:17:54.760
<v Speaker 1>corporations in America kind of voicing their concerns to the

0:17:54.760 --> 0:17:57.199
<v Speaker 1>appropriate folks in Washington. So you get a sense of

0:17:57.200 --> 0:17:59.720
<v Speaker 1>what's going on there. We welcome Sarah How's Actually's a

0:17:59.760 --> 0:18:03.000
<v Speaker 1>retail colms for Bloomberg Opinion, usually based in d C,

0:18:03.119 --> 0:18:06.600
<v Speaker 1>but joining us today in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. Sarah,

0:18:06.640 --> 0:18:08.600
<v Speaker 1>thanks so much for being with us. So we think

0:18:08.640 --> 0:18:11.760
<v Speaker 1>about some of these big companies, big brands, how are

0:18:11.800 --> 0:18:15.520
<v Speaker 1>they trying to get their story about to the Washington

0:18:15.560 --> 0:18:18.600
<v Speaker 1>regulators about what could really impact their business if these

0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:21.280
<v Speaker 1>tariffs do in fact go through. So so far, they're

0:18:21.359 --> 0:18:25.080
<v Speaker 1>using a pretty traditional playbook. They're using their trade groups

0:18:25.080 --> 0:18:28.720
<v Speaker 1>in Washington, like the National Retail Federation. They're writing sternly

0:18:28.760 --> 0:18:31.800
<v Speaker 1>worded letters to the President that are signed by coalitions

0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:34.520
<v Speaker 1>of big name retailers UM and this week, what we're

0:18:34.560 --> 0:18:37.280
<v Speaker 1>seeing is that they are testifying at hearings for the

0:18:37.320 --> 0:18:39.760
<v Speaker 1>Office of the U. S. Trade Representative, trying to make

0:18:39.760 --> 0:18:42.199
<v Speaker 1>their case in that format. And I'm sort of wondering

0:18:42.240 --> 0:18:44.680
<v Speaker 1>if it's time for them to go off script here

0:18:44.760 --> 0:18:47.440
<v Speaker 1>and try something different, if it's time for these really

0:18:47.480 --> 0:18:50.040
<v Speaker 1>high profile consumer brands to get out there in a

0:18:50.080 --> 0:18:53.119
<v Speaker 1>more individual way and make their case directly to consumers

0:18:53.119 --> 0:18:55.240
<v Speaker 1>that these tariffs are not a good policy. Idea because

0:18:55.280 --> 0:18:58.520
<v Speaker 1>what we've not seen I don't believe is the you

0:18:58.560 --> 0:18:59.960
<v Speaker 1>know what we used to see in years past on

0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:01.760
<v Speaker 1>time maybe would be a you know, full page ed

0:19:01.840 --> 0:19:05.000
<v Speaker 1>in the New York Times or Walsh Journal, or television

0:19:05.000 --> 0:19:08.119
<v Speaker 1>ads or you know, a social media campaign. We haven't

0:19:08.119 --> 0:19:10.800
<v Speaker 1>really seen that yet, have we. That's exactly right, and

0:19:10.840 --> 0:19:13.640
<v Speaker 1>I think that we should imagine the power of Nike.

0:19:13.800 --> 0:19:16.240
<v Speaker 1>We all know it's marketing prowess. Imagine if they put

0:19:16.280 --> 0:19:19.240
<v Speaker 1>together a TV commercial sort of outlaying how this affects

0:19:19.240 --> 0:19:21.919
<v Speaker 1>them and their consumers. Imagine if you walked into a

0:19:22.080 --> 0:19:24.359
<v Speaker 1>retailer like Old Navy and they had a sign ups thing.

0:19:24.640 --> 0:19:26.720
<v Speaker 1>This ten dollar T shirt will be fifteen dollars in

0:19:26.760 --> 0:19:29.480
<v Speaker 1>November if this tariff policy is enacted. I think that

0:19:29.520 --> 0:19:31.800
<v Speaker 1>there's a fear out there that President Trump's brand is

0:19:31.840 --> 0:19:35.520
<v Speaker 1>so powerful that nobody wants to sort of go toe

0:19:35.560 --> 0:19:37.359
<v Speaker 1>to toe with him. But at the end of the day,

0:19:37.400 --> 0:19:40.119
<v Speaker 1>these retailers ought to remember their brands are really powerful too.

0:19:40.160 --> 0:19:42.399
<v Speaker 1>They serve millions of customers every day who have a

0:19:42.440 --> 0:19:45.239
<v Speaker 1>real loyalty to them, and that they should play on

0:19:45.320 --> 0:19:46.960
<v Speaker 1>that and try to get out there, get on the

0:19:47.000 --> 0:19:50.400
<v Speaker 1>Today Show, make their case directly to consumers. Is there

0:19:50.440 --> 0:19:53.320
<v Speaker 1>a sense that GF one or two big brands like

0:19:53.359 --> 0:19:55.880
<v Speaker 1>a Nike or something like that does it first, then

0:19:55.920 --> 0:19:59.600
<v Speaker 1>others will follow. I think that could certainly help. And

0:19:59.720 --> 0:20:03.040
<v Speaker 1>I just think that retailers have to remember that. I

0:20:03.080 --> 0:20:05.760
<v Speaker 1>think that we've just sort of seen Trump has a

0:20:05.760 --> 0:20:09.320
<v Speaker 1>willingness to put them in the center of all sorts

0:20:09.320 --> 0:20:12.000
<v Speaker 1>of issues that don't even relate to trade at this point.

0:20:12.040 --> 0:20:14.760
<v Speaker 1>We saw that most clearly with his threats on Mexico

0:20:15.000 --> 0:20:18.119
<v Speaker 1>right there. That's been averted temporarily, but that he was

0:20:18.160 --> 0:20:20.320
<v Speaker 1>going to put tariffs on all goods coming in from

0:20:20.320 --> 0:20:22.639
<v Speaker 1>Mexico to get his way on immigration. And so I

0:20:22.680 --> 0:20:25.720
<v Speaker 1>think whatever risk they see out there in speaking up

0:20:25.720 --> 0:20:28.520
<v Speaker 1>on this issue, the risk to being put in the

0:20:28.520 --> 0:20:30.919
<v Speaker 1>center of another one of these entanglements, I think for

0:20:30.960 --> 0:20:33.159
<v Speaker 1>them is far worse. Right. And what have you have

0:20:33.240 --> 0:20:35.760
<v Speaker 1>we seen anybody kind of maybe just do a little

0:20:35.760 --> 0:20:37.639
<v Speaker 1>bit more. Have we seen anybody do anything on this

0:20:37.760 --> 0:20:39.920
<v Speaker 1>front um or do you think maybe they're just waiting

0:20:39.960 --> 0:20:41.840
<v Speaker 1>to see what happens down the road, maybe the G

0:20:41.960 --> 0:20:44.600
<v Speaker 1>twenty or something like that. Now, I think we've seen,

0:20:44.680 --> 0:20:47.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, comments here and there on earnings calls like

0:20:47.119 --> 0:20:50.760
<v Speaker 1>Walmart just kept repeating something along the lines of uh,

0:20:50.800 --> 0:20:54.639
<v Speaker 1>there's no question that increased taxes result increased prices. But

0:20:54.680 --> 0:20:58.080
<v Speaker 1>they weren't saying any specific, anything specific. And I think

0:20:58.080 --> 0:20:59.919
<v Speaker 1>that's where it would really make a difference, Right if

0:21:00.000 --> 0:21:02.560
<v Speaker 1>consumers could hear on this particular item that I put

0:21:02.560 --> 0:21:04.879
<v Speaker 1>in my pantry every week, or on this particular item

0:21:05.080 --> 0:21:06.480
<v Speaker 1>I know I'm going to need to buy for my

0:21:06.560 --> 0:21:09.240
<v Speaker 1>kids back to school shopping, I'm going to see higher prices.

0:21:09.440 --> 0:21:11.280
<v Speaker 1>I think that could go a long way towards getting

0:21:11.280 --> 0:21:14.120
<v Speaker 1>people riled up. Um, And we're just not seeing action there.

0:21:14.320 --> 0:21:16.520
<v Speaker 1>I think the other thing to remember is that I

0:21:16.600 --> 0:21:19.280
<v Speaker 1>have covered so many of these collisions of retail and

0:21:19.320 --> 0:21:22.720
<v Speaker 1>politics over the years, going back to Chipotle saying we

0:21:22.720 --> 0:21:25.240
<v Speaker 1>don't want people to bring guns into our stores, going

0:21:25.320 --> 0:21:29.120
<v Speaker 1>back to Walmart's UH saying urging its governor in Arkansas

0:21:29.160 --> 0:21:32.359
<v Speaker 1>to Vito or religious freedom bill, um. And none of

0:21:32.400 --> 0:21:35.280
<v Speaker 1>this has long term impact on any of these retailers.

0:21:35.440 --> 0:21:37.639
<v Speaker 1>I think we just live in a moment where politics

0:21:37.640 --> 0:21:40.439
<v Speaker 1>and business are colliding more and they should speak up

0:21:40.440 --> 0:21:42.440
<v Speaker 1>on the stuff that matters to them. This is fascinating.

0:21:42.440 --> 0:21:44.920
<v Speaker 1>We'll have to see how that plays out, because clearly

0:21:45.400 --> 0:21:48.879
<v Speaker 1>the impact on retailers and big consumer companies could in

0:21:48.920 --> 0:21:51.760
<v Speaker 1>fact be substantial. Some of these tariffs do go through

0:21:51.800 --> 0:21:55.480
<v Speaker 1>and likely, very likely could impact their businesses. Sarah Hawsak,

0:21:55.520 --> 0:21:57.840
<v Speaker 1>thanks so much for joining us in studio. We appreciate it.

0:21:57.960 --> 0:22:13.919
<v Speaker 1>Sarah's a retail calumnist for Bloomberg at Opinion. Well, equity

0:22:14.000 --> 0:22:17.240
<v Speaker 1>markets are certainly applauding the Fed's statement yesterday of likely

0:22:17.280 --> 0:22:19.640
<v Speaker 1>easing later this year. To get a sense of where

0:22:19.640 --> 0:22:22.080
<v Speaker 1>we go from here, we welcome Barry nap Berry is

0:22:22.080 --> 0:22:26.240
<v Speaker 1>a managing partner for Iron Sides macro Economics, based in Westland,

0:22:26.240 --> 0:22:29.480
<v Speaker 1>New Jersey, but now Vail, Colorado. Lucky Barry, Barry, thanks

0:22:29.520 --> 0:22:31.880
<v Speaker 1>so much for joining us. Just wonder if you can

0:22:31.960 --> 0:22:34.840
<v Speaker 1>give us kind of your takeaways from what we heard

0:22:34.840 --> 0:22:41.080
<v Speaker 1>from Chairman Pal yesterday. Sure. Um, well, they seem absolutely

0:22:41.200 --> 0:22:45.679
<v Speaker 1>committed to Uh, we're trying to resolve at least the

0:22:46.320 --> 0:22:50.600
<v Speaker 1>low inflation that's so persistent in the economy. Um. I

0:22:50.640 --> 0:22:54.000
<v Speaker 1>think it's an exercise and utility. Quite frankly, we've done

0:22:54.000 --> 0:22:56.919
<v Speaker 1>a lot of work on the correlation of the components

0:22:56.960 --> 0:23:01.360
<v Speaker 1>of GPI to convince ourselves that you me, what's causing

0:23:01.400 --> 0:23:05.840
<v Speaker 1>that the low inflation is um innovation adoption in the

0:23:05.880 --> 0:23:09.480
<v Speaker 1>service sector, and global excess capacity and goods. Even an

0:23:09.560 --> 0:23:14.040
<v Speaker 1>energy um shale has fundamentally changed the elasticity of supply

0:23:14.200 --> 0:23:17.720
<v Speaker 1>and likely dampen volatility and energy prices over time. So

0:23:18.000 --> 0:23:19.920
<v Speaker 1>all these things are out of the purview of the FETE,

0:23:20.000 --> 0:23:25.080
<v Speaker 1>but none. Nonetheless, they seem absolutely convinced that, uh, you know,

0:23:25.119 --> 0:23:28.280
<v Speaker 1>they've got to try and ease policy to to boost

0:23:28.320 --> 0:23:33.560
<v Speaker 1>inflation backwards two percent. Now I'm trying to avoid falling

0:23:33.560 --> 0:23:35.359
<v Speaker 1>into the trap of sounding like a bit of a

0:23:35.400 --> 0:23:39.560
<v Speaker 1>shrill and saying, well, this is going to cause um,

0:23:39.640 --> 0:23:42.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, impair creative destruction and cause asset bubbles and all.

0:23:43.040 --> 0:23:45.400
<v Speaker 1>Both those things are certainly true in the long run,

0:23:45.800 --> 0:23:48.000
<v Speaker 1>but in the near term, I don't think there's a

0:23:48.040 --> 0:23:50.000
<v Speaker 1>heck of a lot of risk to them easing from

0:23:50.000 --> 0:23:52.959
<v Speaker 1>this point, and so I'm a I'm a bit indifferent

0:23:53.040 --> 0:23:56.000
<v Speaker 1>to the whole thing. Obviously, investors in the near term

0:23:56.040 --> 0:23:59.600
<v Speaker 1>cheered it though we're well off or high um. But

0:24:00.119 --> 0:24:04.040
<v Speaker 1>I think on balance, to really understand what's going on

0:24:04.119 --> 0:24:07.040
<v Speaker 1>with the FED and what happened last year, I think

0:24:07.080 --> 0:24:09.679
<v Speaker 1>you need to step back from conventional rate policy and

0:24:09.760 --> 0:24:13.439
<v Speaker 1>think about just that. The demand for bonds from the

0:24:13.600 --> 0:24:17.080
<v Speaker 1>three major developed world central banks. So the e c B,

0:24:17.280 --> 0:24:20.440
<v Speaker 1>b o J and FED bought two trillion dollars worth

0:24:20.440 --> 0:24:25.160
<v Speaker 1>the bonds in ten they bought zero. And that really

0:24:25.320 --> 0:24:29.280
<v Speaker 1>accelerated around the September October time frame, when e C

0:24:29.400 --> 0:24:32.520
<v Speaker 1>D cut their purchases in half then reached their maximum

0:24:32.560 --> 0:24:35.200
<v Speaker 1>caps for balance sheet runoff. The B o J had

0:24:35.200 --> 0:24:38.640
<v Speaker 1>altered their guield curve control program a bit, and there

0:24:38.680 --> 0:24:41.159
<v Speaker 1>was a provision in the tax bill that ended that

0:24:41.560 --> 0:24:44.280
<v Speaker 1>allowed companies to contribute to their pension plan at the

0:24:44.280 --> 0:24:48.240
<v Speaker 1>old rate. So really what you had was a liquidity shocked,

0:24:48.359 --> 0:24:51.880
<v Speaker 1>going from two trillion of demands to zero in demand,

0:24:52.160 --> 0:24:54.960
<v Speaker 1>and that's what caused what we've been calling the q T,

0:24:55.680 --> 0:24:58.359
<v Speaker 1>you know, stock market crash in the fourth quarter. It

0:24:58.400 --> 0:25:01.000
<v Speaker 1>wasn't that rates got too tight. There was no part

0:25:01.000 --> 0:25:06.199
<v Speaker 1>of the economy really that exhibited um signs that that

0:25:06.359 --> 0:25:09.200
<v Speaker 1>policy was quite even the housing market. We thought the

0:25:09.240 --> 0:25:12.440
<v Speaker 1>slowdown last year was attributable to the state and local

0:25:12.480 --> 0:25:17.640
<v Speaker 1>tax production elimination, not higher rates. So much so I'm balancing,

0:25:17.840 --> 0:25:20.760
<v Speaker 1>I'm sort of been different to FED policy here. I

0:25:20.800 --> 0:25:24.479
<v Speaker 1>think what's more important is the improvement in domestic demand

0:25:24.480 --> 0:25:27.560
<v Speaker 1>and the pick back up and consumption from that QUT

0:25:27.760 --> 0:25:31.600
<v Speaker 1>crash that's been so evident in retail sales in particularly

0:25:31.680 --> 0:25:34.679
<v Speaker 1>last week's numbers. All Right, So if the FED is

0:25:34.680 --> 0:25:36.639
<v Speaker 1>what it is here, it's on the sidelines at least

0:25:36.800 --> 0:25:39.720
<v Speaker 1>for the very near term and then likely to ease

0:25:39.800 --> 0:25:42.000
<v Speaker 1>a little bit later in the year. The other big

0:25:42.080 --> 0:25:45.119
<v Speaker 1>driver of the market's performance really, you know, over the

0:25:45.200 --> 0:25:48.640
<v Speaker 1>last six to nine months, has been global trade tensions

0:25:48.680 --> 0:25:50.439
<v Speaker 1>and then appears that they might be coming to a

0:25:50.480 --> 0:25:53.320
<v Speaker 1>head here with China. How do you think that plays

0:25:53.480 --> 0:25:56.720
<v Speaker 1>out and how should investors kind of be positioned for

0:25:57.040 --> 0:26:01.920
<v Speaker 1>How do you think trade discussions with China my playout? Um? Well,

0:26:02.200 --> 0:26:06.560
<v Speaker 1>I thought that last week's numbers from China were really

0:26:07.000 --> 0:26:11.440
<v Speaker 1>very telling inasmuch as um industrial production was weaker than expected,

0:26:11.600 --> 0:26:14.920
<v Speaker 1>fix ass and investment was weaker than expected. The import

0:26:14.960 --> 0:26:17.680
<v Speaker 1>component of the trade data was much weaker than expected,

0:26:18.119 --> 0:26:21.520
<v Speaker 1>and whatever strength there was was in their traditional heavy

0:26:21.520 --> 0:26:27.240
<v Speaker 1>industry state owned enterprise sectors so steel cement those sectors,

0:26:27.320 --> 0:26:31.560
<v Speaker 1>and consumer sectors like auto production was decidedly weak. Technology

0:26:31.680 --> 0:26:35.640
<v Speaker 1>was very weak, So I we expect that this really

0:26:35.720 --> 0:26:39.480
<v Speaker 1>strengthened the hands of her formers and led to President

0:26:39.600 --> 0:26:41.960
<v Speaker 1>she being willing to come back to the table and

0:26:42.000 --> 0:26:45.960
<v Speaker 1>restart negotiations. So we've placed a fairly high probability that

0:26:46.040 --> 0:26:48.720
<v Speaker 1>we get a trade to tant h next week and

0:26:48.760 --> 0:26:52.879
<v Speaker 1>that pushes UM any further tariffs down the road at

0:26:52.960 --> 0:26:56.119
<v Speaker 1>least still much later this fall. So I think on

0:26:56.320 --> 0:27:00.359
<v Speaker 1>balance that's the key driver of the recovery and business

0:27:00.400 --> 0:27:03.280
<v Speaker 1>confidence in the US. That's been evident in capital spending

0:27:03.320 --> 0:27:08.280
<v Speaker 1>plans and the National Federation of Small Business confidence measures,

0:27:08.440 --> 0:27:10.560
<v Speaker 1>as well as a pickup and labor market turnover. So

0:27:10.720 --> 0:27:14.800
<v Speaker 1>that to us is the most likely scenario now if

0:27:14.800 --> 0:27:17.040
<v Speaker 1>the deal falls apart or if there is no trade

0:27:17.040 --> 0:27:21.240
<v Speaker 1>to time, because the stock markets, the fries UM, we're

0:27:21.280 --> 0:27:25.080
<v Speaker 1>clearly more vulnerable than we than we had been, perhaps

0:27:25.119 --> 0:27:29.280
<v Speaker 1>even going into you know, the May trade tweets. Still

0:27:29.320 --> 0:27:33.560
<v Speaker 1>I think that's a low probability, but you know that

0:27:34.320 --> 0:27:36.760
<v Speaker 1>you know that the downside associated with that is even

0:27:36.800 --> 0:27:38.639
<v Speaker 1>greater now that we're back up at the high. Now

0:27:38.680 --> 0:27:40.400
<v Speaker 1>that we're back up at the high, Barry Nap, thanks

0:27:40.440 --> 0:27:43.160
<v Speaker 1>so much for joining us. Barry's managing partner at Iron

0:27:43.200 --> 0:27:45.760
<v Speaker 1>Science of macro Economics joining us on the phone today

0:27:45.840 --> 0:27:49.800
<v Speaker 1>from Lovely Vail, Colorado. We appreciate his comments. Thanks for

0:27:49.840 --> 0:27:52.040
<v Speaker 1>listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can

0:27:52.080 --> 0:27:54.919
<v Speaker 1>subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever

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<v Speaker 1>podcast platform you prefer. On Paul Sweeney, I'm on Twitter

0:27:58.040 --> 0:28:01.600
<v Speaker 1>at pt Sweeney, Brahmway Time on Twitter at Lisa Abramo.

0:28:01.680 --> 0:28:04.080
<v Speaker 1>It's one before the podcast. You can always catch us

0:28:04.200 --> 0:28:05.760
<v Speaker 1>worldwide on Bloomberg Radio.