Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Martha Gimble, executive director at the Yell Budget Lab, and Martha,
Speaker 2: I want to get back to terrorists because it's been
Speaker 2: pushed completely aside. We'll get to the war and oil
Speaker 2: in a moment. What is your run rate now of terrorists?
Speaker 2: Do do? I believe you're back to nineteen thirty nine
Speaker 2: on the tariff impact, so.
Speaker 1: It's about nineteen forty three, but you know, nineteen thirty
Speaker 1: nine nineteen forty three, what's a couple of tariff rates
Speaker 1: between friends at this point right? It's high? I think
Speaker 1: is the real point?
Speaker 2: What do we say about the impact on our listeners
Speaker 2: and viewers distracted by five dollars a gallon gas?
Speaker 1: I mean, you're still going to see continually rising prices.
Speaker 1: You know. One of the things that we've been talking
Speaker 1: about is trying to figure out how much of tariffs
Speaker 1: have actually been passed through already. I think the sort
Speaker 1: of back of the envelope easiest number to kind of
Speaker 1: fixate on is around fifty percent. It's not exact, but
Speaker 1: gives you an idea, and so you know, you still
Speaker 1: have costs that are waiting to hit the consumer again
Speaker 1: at the same time that you're obviously seeing a lot
Speaker 1: of pressure from energy prices. By the way, Tom, I
Speaker 1: just wanted to you know, you were talking about the
Speaker 1: team just as a measure of the dedication of the team.
Speaker 1: The team was up late last night like incorporating new
Speaker 1: ways of how they realized metal tariffs impact dary. So
Speaker 1: I do just want to say, you know, this is
Speaker 1: a team that is always iterating, always trying to make
Speaker 1: sure they're doing this exactly right, and I just want
Speaker 1: to give them a huge, huge shout out.
Speaker 2: Martha.
Speaker 3: What's the given that we have a one year kind
Speaker 3: of perspective here, what's kind of the layout of who
Speaker 3: really bore these tariff expenses, whether it be the exporter,
Speaker 3: the importer, companies, consumers. How's that shacking out now?
Speaker 1: So at this point it's probably, you know, partially consumers.
Speaker 1: You know, prices, for instance, for durable goods do look
Speaker 1: like they've been affected. You've also seen companies trying to
Speaker 1: hold on right because there's been so much uncertainty about
Speaker 1: these tariffs, and companies don't like raising prices if they
Speaker 1: don't have to write make consumers mad, and so you
Speaker 1: know they've been trying to hold on, but at some
Speaker 1: point the economic pressures become too much and then they
Speaker 1: have to raise prices.
Speaker 3: So where do we think we go from here? Give
Speaker 3: us a sense of how constructive or how adamant that
Speaker 3: administration is in terms of imposing these tars. Have they
Speaker 3: been really on top of it?
Speaker 2: Do you think?
Speaker 1: I mean? I think you know at the moment, we
Speaker 1: have these kind of temporary tariffs in place while they
Speaker 1: figure out the new legal authorities they're going to be using.
Speaker 1: I think one thing that's really hard is that at
Speaker 1: this point, I think we have a pretty good sense
Speaker 1: of what the headline tariff number is going to be.
Speaker 1: You know, let's call it somewhere between eleven and fifteen percent.
Speaker 1: But if you're a business that actually doesn't help you
Speaker 1: very much, you don't need to know what the headline
Speaker 1: You know, you and I care. You need to know
Speaker 1: what the effect of tariff rate is for your industry,
Speaker 1: for your products, and there we just have know certainty
Speaker 1: and or we don't know which products are going to
Speaker 1: be targeting.
Speaker 2: To get all McKinley on, you and the President would
Speaker 2: say this, you estimate we're raising nine zero zero, just
Speaker 2: under a trillion dollars out X number of years. By
Speaker 2: all of this, with the war, with the massive Pentagon budget,
Speaker 2: are we addicted whether we agree or disagree with tariffs,
Speaker 2: are we now addicted to that tax cash flow?
Speaker 1: I mean, I think you're asking the question that a
Speaker 1: lot of people are starting to kind of whisper to themselves. Right,
Speaker 1: It's really really hard to raise taxes in DC. Economists
Speaker 1: would tell you raise literally any tax except for tariffs. Right.
Speaker 1: They're really inefficient, they have really high economic costs. At
Speaker 1: the same time, it seems to be the only tax
Speaker 1: that were able to raise.
Speaker 2: Well. De Paul's good question before given all the distractions, folks,
Speaker 2: the screen that I'm seeing here, I just saw the
Speaker 2: House will not vote on the DHS thing. Ed Ludlow
Speaker 2: just sent me how the Orion mission is going to
Speaker 2: go from seventeen thousand miles per hour to twenty four
Speaker 2: thousand miles per hour. We're going to have Ludlow one
Speaker 2: at nine o'clock hour. I mean, all these distractions, Martha,
Speaker 2: what on a baseball sense, think Ron Darling at Yale
Speaker 2: years ago. On a baseball sense, Martha Gimbal, where are
Speaker 2: we in the tariff impact? Are we like I think
Speaker 2: there's a feeling we're in the ninth inning. I don't
Speaker 2: buy it. Where are we in the tariff effect?
Speaker 1: We're not even at the seventh inning stretch, you know,
Speaker 1: we're you know, only just starting to get there. You
Speaker 1: have to remember, Smoot Holly took years to you know,
Speaker 1: fully incorporate and this is it's not the case that
Speaker 1: you raise tariffs and the effects of those are fully
Speaker 1: incorporated the next day, especially when those tariffs have been
Speaker 1: so uncertain as these have been. I'll get it, No,
Speaker 1: you have no idea what.
Speaker 2: I'll get it out on LinkedIn and Twitter as well.
Speaker 2: It's the budget lab. But yeah, I can't say enough
Speaker 2: about the clarity and this sickness of it. Martha Gimble
Speaker 2: there with a great team.