WEBVTT - Yale Budget Lab Executive Director Martha Gimbel Talks Tariffs

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Martha Gimble, executive director at the Yell Budget Lab, and Martha,

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<v Speaker 2>I want to get back to terrorists because it's been

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<v Speaker 2>pushed completely aside. We'll get to the war and oil

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<v Speaker 2>in a moment. What is your run rate now of terrorists?

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<v Speaker 2>Do do? I believe you're back to nineteen thirty nine

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<v Speaker 2>on the tariff impact, so.

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<v Speaker 1>It's about nineteen forty three, but you know, nineteen thirty

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<v Speaker 1>nine nineteen forty three, what's a couple of tariff rates

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<v Speaker 1>between friends at this point right? It's high? I think

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<v Speaker 1>is the real point?

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<v Speaker 2>What do we say about the impact on our listeners

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<v Speaker 2>and viewers distracted by five dollars a gallon gas?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you're still going to see continually rising prices.

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<v Speaker 1>You know. One of the things that we've been talking

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<v Speaker 1>about is trying to figure out how much of tariffs

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<v Speaker 1>have actually been passed through already. I think the sort

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<v Speaker 1>of back of the envelope easiest number to kind of

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<v Speaker 1>fixate on is around fifty percent. It's not exact, but

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<v Speaker 1>gives you an idea, and so you know, you still

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<v Speaker 1>have costs that are waiting to hit the consumer again

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<v Speaker 1>at the same time that you're obviously seeing a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of pressure from energy prices. By the way, Tom, I

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<v Speaker 1>just wanted to you know, you were talking about the

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<v Speaker 1>team just as a measure of the dedication of the team.

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<v Speaker 1>The team was up late last night like incorporating new

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<v Speaker 1>ways of how they realized metal tariffs impact dary. So

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<v Speaker 1>I do just want to say, you know, this is

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<v Speaker 1>a team that is always iterating, always trying to make

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<v Speaker 1>sure they're doing this exactly right, and I just want

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<v Speaker 1>to give them a huge, huge shout out.

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<v Speaker 2>Martha.

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<v Speaker 3>What's the given that we have a one year kind

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<v Speaker 3>of perspective here, what's kind of the layout of who

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<v Speaker 3>really bore these tariff expenses, whether it be the exporter,

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<v Speaker 3>the importer, companies, consumers. How's that shacking out now?

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<v Speaker 1>So at this point it's probably, you know, partially consumers.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, prices, for instance, for durable goods do look

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<v Speaker 1>like they've been affected. You've also seen companies trying to

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<v Speaker 1>hold on right because there's been so much uncertainty about

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<v Speaker 1>these tariffs, and companies don't like raising prices if they

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<v Speaker 1>don't have to write make consumers mad, and so you

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<v Speaker 1>know they've been trying to hold on, but at some

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<v Speaker 1>point the economic pressures become too much and then they

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<v Speaker 1>have to raise prices.

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<v Speaker 3>So where do we think we go from here? Give

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<v Speaker 3>us a sense of how constructive or how adamant that

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<v Speaker 3>administration is in terms of imposing these tars. Have they

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<v Speaker 3>been really on top of it?

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<v Speaker 2>Do you think?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean? I think you know at the moment, we

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<v Speaker 1>have these kind of temporary tariffs in place while they

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<v Speaker 1>figure out the new legal authorities they're going to be using.

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<v Speaker 1>I think one thing that's really hard is that at

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<v Speaker 1>this point, I think we have a pretty good sense

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<v Speaker 1>of what the headline tariff number is going to be.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, let's call it somewhere between eleven and fifteen percent.

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<v Speaker 1>But if you're a business that actually doesn't help you

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<v Speaker 1>very much, you don't need to know what the headline

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<v Speaker 1>You know, you and I care. You need to know

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<v Speaker 1>what the effect of tariff rate is for your industry,

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<v Speaker 1>for your products, and there we just have know certainty

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<v Speaker 1>and or we don't know which products are going to

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<v Speaker 1>be targeting.

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<v Speaker 2>To get all McKinley on, you and the President would

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<v Speaker 2>say this, you estimate we're raising nine zero zero, just

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<v Speaker 2>under a trillion dollars out X number of years. By

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<v Speaker 2>all of this, with the war, with the massive Pentagon budget,

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<v Speaker 2>are we addicted whether we agree or disagree with tariffs,

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<v Speaker 2>are we now addicted to that tax cash flow?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think you're asking the question that a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of people are starting to kind of whisper to themselves. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>It's really really hard to raise taxes in DC. Economists

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<v Speaker 1>would tell you raise literally any tax except for tariffs. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>They're really inefficient, they have really high economic costs. At

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<v Speaker 1>the same time, it seems to be the only tax

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<v Speaker 1>that were able to raise.

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<v Speaker 2>Well. De Paul's good question before given all the distractions, folks,

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<v Speaker 2>the screen that I'm seeing here, I just saw the

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<v Speaker 2>House will not vote on the DHS thing. Ed Ludlow

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<v Speaker 2>just sent me how the Orion mission is going to

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<v Speaker 2>go from seventeen thousand miles per hour to twenty four

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<v Speaker 2>thousand miles per hour. We're going to have Ludlow one

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<v Speaker 2>at nine o'clock hour. I mean, all these distractions, Martha,

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<v Speaker 2>what on a baseball sense, think Ron Darling at Yale

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<v Speaker 2>years ago. On a baseball sense, Martha Gimbal, where are

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<v Speaker 2>we in the tariff impact? Are we like I think

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<v Speaker 2>there's a feeling we're in the ninth inning. I don't

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<v Speaker 2>buy it. Where are we in the tariff effect?

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<v Speaker 1>We're not even at the seventh inning stretch, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we're you know, only just starting to get there. You

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<v Speaker 1>have to remember, Smoot Holly took years to you know,

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<v Speaker 1>fully incorporate and this is it's not the case that

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<v Speaker 1>you raise tariffs and the effects of those are fully

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<v Speaker 1>incorporated the next day, especially when those tariffs have been

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<v Speaker 1>so uncertain as these have been. I'll get it, No,

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<v Speaker 1>you have no idea what.

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<v Speaker 2>I'll get it out on LinkedIn and Twitter as well.

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<v Speaker 2>It's the budget lab. But yeah, I can't say enough

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<v Speaker 2>about the clarity and this sickness of it. Martha Gimble

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<v Speaker 2>there with a great team.